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[Music] Well, it's like the entrance examination for the Chinese civil service. One question. Tell me everything, you know. Boom. [Music] Let's work backwards. It would seem that I am a conundrum. I'm going to speak about myself. Personal. Very wonky. Let me tell you what I'm not. I mean, I am a degenerate fight design. I have asked it in the name. I'm an asset capitalist and it's partly wordplay that we are on a mission. We're training our minds, torturing our minds with the ambition of getting glimpses of understanding about what is yet to happen, what will come to pass. And for a hundred years, I mean, Jesse livermore wrote the book. But I want to say, Jesse was more, I feel like I'm more like a bastard child of Jesse than the people who manage money today. The people who manage money today manage money out of fear. And they believe it's very Protestant and they believe that hard work is the fruit of all. And I don't wish to be disdainful on that. It's the nature of the work that I call into question. I think it's, I think this ambition to see the future. I think we share that ambition with the artists of the world. I actually believe that truly reset the mission is one for artistic minds, artistic or artistic. Maybe, maybe both. And so the asset was a play on, you want to see the future. You know, you got to light up the mind, never taken asked. Dolly, on others, really very recently, I don't smoke, I have smoking. I chase young girls smoking in Europe just kind of goes that way. I've stopped it. I don't vape. Almost don't drink any alcohol. I have something beeping on me. Occasionally, I've discovered quite like ecstasy because it makes me dance in public. I'm very introvert and extravert. But I think I've had three ecstasy pills in my life, assuming. However, I'm going to, I'm a book. No, I'm going to open this book to everyone who has kindly joined or will watch on rewind because I've never done this on sub stack. I think of myself as as a Jesse James and he said, Hey, hey, kid, why'd you keep robbing banks? He was like easy as where the money is, right? And I find myself stupidly like spending too much time on Instagram or on eeks. The money's on sub stack. Yeah. So again, as we continue this journey, if you were backwards, before we started using these acronyms and I guess really just with the modern need to diagnose things, diagnose things, I've got three kids and they've all got ADHD and then they get it from me. And like you said, I probably came out of the gate lying and then life gets in the way. I don't finish sentences. And I travel and my life and I'm part of you, my sub stack is it's the confluence of the back story and the experience and the insight. You know, I am an orthogonal investor. We'll come back and explore that. And I'm not necessarily going to give you trades. I'm getting closer to that. But I'm going to show you what I attempt to show you is how an orthogonal mind, how the refracturation of financial light through my mind is something I think which is interesting and it has heat and it has energy. I feel like a modern deed descended or certainly my ambition would be the names that I hear or Hunter S. Thompson and Charles Bukowski. And so I am vulgar and I make no apologies for that. Coca-Cola is an amazing brand. When I drink, when I drink and I don't drink the diet or the zero sugar, sugar is a natural product. You're going to drink Coca-Cola, drink the natural product, not the Frankenstein product anyway. But when you drink it, wow, man, it tastes darn fucking good. So it delivers. Financial brands do not deliver. I don't have to convince you and the people who will be listening to this, they're listening because they get that. The hotel, I'm sitting in and I'm sitting in the belly of the beast. And I'm actually using my iPhone, we might take it too. But it's in 2012, 14 years ago, I purchased the land. I actually got a disk because it received so much sunshine. Crazy stuff. And I bought it for three million. I spent four million buying it. And it's a great Gatsby house. It's an acre of land, seven bedrooms. And it's very much the headquarters of the acid summer camp in August that we run. In the last two months have been horrid for me. I run out of money. For the first time in my life, every bank account I had, apart from my wise account, which is fed by my sub-starkers and Patreon, thank you very much. Everything went negative. Now, the reason for that, again, yes, I'm degenerative. I have fun, but I had no rental business in August, and then we closed down September and October for the hurricane season. And my forward book just disappeared. Three weeks ago, I had essentially the Thanksgiving week and nothing else. We charted super, super high rate the last two weeks of the year. We charged in gross terms of $450,000. It's just a remarkable place. And that's 40% of my annual revenue. And up until 10 days ago, I had nothing in the counter. And I failed to meet the mortgage. I was in a rears. I mean, I'm crazy. Why the fuck am I sharing this? But that's what you get. You get transparency. And like you say, I transcend worlds. And hopefully I feel like I hope I can have sympathy for people who are just on one side of that. It's the greatest concentration of wealth in one place in the planet. The last two years we've had, again, a weather pattern of very high pressure, which makes the sea become like a lake. And you get that in advance and they come, they're the yachts. And so it's almost like a natural wonder. It's not natural. But the principal tone, Gustavia, almost at night, time as you descend from the hills into tone, you can't differentiate between land and the sea. And it's lit and the sea continues and continues and continues. So it's a remarkable, remarkable site. But I've got that, but I spent the best part of two months in Los Angeles. I'd like to spend more time there, which I believe I go to early looking for a sanity. And again, we'll touch upon that because there's things we can say, but I've got a lot of creative friends. And they're in hospitality and they've got some amazing restaurant brands and people with bars and two of mine or a lady, late summer bookings, August September, catastrophic down 20%. And I lamented to you the hotel. I mean, the property, Blanc, Lou, Neeson, Blanc, Lou. For three, the last three years is the divorce. I kind of less and less, but I really was degenerative. And another link to my own run, joy is our energy. I had a lot of energy because I had a lot of joy. But I did a lot of silly things as well. I had a 23-year-old girl and I put her in charge of the hotel. And the hotel has like gross revenues of like over $2 million. And it's got about $34,000 recurring expenses on a monthly basis that have to be managed. And then on top, I'm spending two, three hundred thousand a year keeping it, you know, as splendid as it is. And I had a young girl responsible for that. And so, oh, and then the great joy she quit. The great joy she quit. She quit for the better offer. I believe that culpability and the recognition of so is vital if you are to prosper in this world. And I made errors, you know. That's how you begin alcoholics and on of us. Your my name is Hugh Andrew. I'm an alcoholic. You take responsibility. Now, initially, I thought why I have to replace her. So let's do the pricing because this is how the mind works with stocks. And we can everything can be broken down into basic arithmetic. She would need two and a half, three thousand a month for accommodation for rental. And then she would need a car. And which I would rent. And then she would need money. Like she would need like groceries. You need you need like a thousand of of of of spend. And then you kind of want to save a thousand or so and you change that ratio as you wish. Okay. So that takes you to about 60,000 euros a year for a 23 year old remember. But for anyone. Now, here's the issue with Europe and America. And and this is very regalant because it's kids. There's a lot of people protesting because a lot of kids manning the barricades in Paris and across the country. And it's my my great tree kids who work in St. Boston. Boss is like a very sunny ski resort. And so you I call them chambermaids or a ski, a ski, Charlie girls. I'm the I own the Charlie. And I got girls who who work for me. So they're French. They're not St. Borts. They haven't spent five years on the island. And so I have to employ them directly, which then makes me liable for the French government's social charge. And that takes the 60,000 that I have to pay. And it takes my gross to 100,000 euros, which is what I think about 120,000 dollars, I think. And so guess what? I am not replacing the girl because it's impossible. And that I'm plus let's do let's we did the story of me looking at property to buy in Venice Beach. And there I'd be looking at the 30 year fixed. And maybe I'd be able to construe it. I would say hey listen, commercial maybe I take on a little bit risk more. I'd get bumped up on the risk thing, but they might give me what you call it like the one touch. Well, you're just as interesting only, okay? So America, America got some options. Yeah, in Europe, I don't. In Europe, they'll give me 20, 20 year fixed, but fixed just now, somewhere closer to five. But they're going to ask me to they're going to demand not ask, they're going to demand that I repay a 20 I repay 5% of the principal every month every year. So if I'm paying 5 on interest and I'm my amortization is let's call it five. Pink tent. Right. Right. So again, I am fucking buying a new house. Right. And again, my economy therefore is going to suffer under the weight of normally you'd expect people like me to be involved, but you won't I need a one touch. I need the not one touch. I need the infinity loan of the interest only. Yeah, you want to give to people. Yeah, yeah, indeed. The part of what I was perhaps laboriously working on is, again, perhaps a greater understanding of me for for the audience in that the technology at hand now with the AI, the ER is the French sort of fucking annoying. Look, they have to turn everything out the enemy, whatever, the ER. The that I say, I'm fine. People say, well, why are you not managing money being there done it, if you will. But again, I would ask people who are paying first for financial services. There's such a huge difference between someone like myself. And it's why again, I'm not, I'm not tap dancing. I'm not stockbroker. I'm not presenting you best buys. I'm presenting you a first class mind that manage money and manage money money under the most exacting circumstances that when I received I've taken it from a client, it was $100 million, right? And they might of work and finessing that goes into that. And you don't lose that. I mean, I came to St. Bart's and I needed to rehabilitate myself. I spent 15 years where the mind was thinking, I could Vince my mind that I was engaged in motor combat and at some point I was going to die. And so the flight chemicals being produced, I had to recover. And they say that just the joy of nature, the beauty of it, the answer past beauty, it kind of recharges the mind. I think that's happened. I had no ambition. And indeed, I had no Bloomberg. I had no ambition to pursue markets. And yet people would come to the island, rich folk would come and you can imagine, there were walk street types and I knew everything. Oh, I've got some weird Wi-Fi that even I'm not aware of. Okay. And that led me back into I've got a voice. Now, my new hero, I have to say stupid things. Let me say my first really stupid thing. My new hero and the person I'd like to emulate is Jim Cramer. One of my favorite finance books is autobiography. I'll put that out there. I'm really related to it. I don't know how much of it's true, but really related to it. And secondly, scarcity and abundance and singularity. I think Cramer is the most deliciously pre-programmed idiot. And actually everyone else is the idiot. I think Jimmy Boy is making about 30 million dollars on that CNBC contract. Okay. And that's what I'm talking about. So I'm not talking about the avarice of the money, but we are in it to win it. And I'm looking for a competitor to return vis-a-vis professional management of other people's money. Okay. And one call that I've repeated of late in the last year has been the scarcity that's represented by live, life's fort. And we've seen some prominent corporate activity. Notably, is it LA Jets? Which went out on an almost valuation metric. And the easiest play, we have to still do the hypothesis, but the play would be amongst the plays, but most liquid would be the British or the international club for soccer, Manchester United and dollar and ANU. And technically, I could speak to that. It's, yeah. Well, I draw the distinction between you as the owner of the asset. And the spectators, the buildings of spectators all over the world who are engaged in it. And also, I'd point out the suspense that you don't know what's going to happen. Its runs is unscripted. And it begins, it has a beginning and it has an end, which is then followed by a beginning and an end. And in between time, there is an industry talking and we want to do, did he get injured? How bad was the injury? Right. We saw, first of all, and they're making new franchises, really. You know, the sound kind of weird stuff you do in America. And of course, we are creating these American football franchises. The Miami team only exists in the last five years. But in terms of the Manchester United and the Europeans, they're not making, they haven't made a new one in 100 years. Live event. Well, I remember partly with the singularity, we're all going to become fantastically rich, unless we die. But you know, 90 percent, probably we were very, very rich times that we die, you know. And again, rationally, if you had presented that to the population at large, if we'd had a ballot, AI or not, I'm not, I'm not being anti-AI, I'm just being anti-how we got here. But if you had that, hey, for sure, you're going to be 10 times richer and probably will work 90% less, but there's a 10% tail risk. 10 on tail is not tail. There's a 10% risk that we might kill you. The population at large would reject it, and of course we are seeing that come through in the polling, which is not good. But we're going to be 10 times richer, and this is scarce. This is so scarce. I think they're well bid. The number of really scarce assets also need delivered dopamine. So scarce dopamine assets. I mean, that's Google. I've got a few other ideas, but I want to bring it back to actually sport. The stock market is sport. What we're doing is we're actually sports commentators. I think there's a very good return. As the scarcity of the underlying asset is rising, you're finding the remuneration, is rising for the commentators, and my strategic object to being an entrepreneur is I want to emulate Kramer. I want to be that person. To be that person, so I have to be, there has to be a disconnect. I am a fucking genius when it comes to markets, but AI can allow anyone to write and pass that off. I pass off is something that no one dares to replicate, which is the degenerate. So people live vicariously through me. So apparently I take drugs. I certainly spend all my time trying to sleep with younger ladies. I don't mean 20, I mean 30s, but I'm in my mid 50s. The vulgarity, the chasing girls, the living, this billionaire paradise on top of the engine of my mind is how I'm seeking to emulate Kramer. And I will, I will, I'm not seeking to be wrong, but if I am wrong, I don't care. As long as it was bold, it was well argued, and with personality. It's another one role is entertainment, because the channel is like, it's a sports club. They need to fill, put bombs on seats, and there's another game to sell, and another game, and another game, and that's what he does. So if you don't do that without, we neglect the entertainment in this thing that we're doing, or that's my thing, my disthane for the Bloombergs and the CNBC, that they curate it where they remove the artistry and it becomes dull. And what again, I'm saying to you is just like the basketball or the baseball or the soccer, right? Every day, the market opens, and it will close at the same time. And we don't know, we think, but we don't know. Sometimes it's dull. Sometimes it's drastically interesting, right? That's the dopamine. And so we are in the entertainment, sports entertainment. We have, we, if you, the root to being, to be remunerated in what we do, is you've got to be more entertaining, because we can deliver the commentary, but you have to, we need people returning. I'm getting younger. No, I'm getting younger. And yeah, so the, my market startles two opportunities. And the one that I, the one that I started with the mission was the, the young kids who have to have no toys. I mean, the, the AI, the tech, of course, the last 20 years has, has changed that. But I was side of, of, of the tech, and Wall Street's been the only game, because that's for them. Again, Jesse James, that's for the money. And so I've got these wonderful kids. And I'm kind of trying to reach out to them, say, this, look at, okay, look at me, right? I'm saying there is another way. Like, here I am, this fucking amazing place. I kind of got a few things right. Yeah. There is another way. And listen to it, because listen to it before it's, they beat it out of you. So my target market is that kind of 20s, early 30s market where they're like, oh, you know. And I like that. Now, I said to you with this ADHD, I, in the last month, I believe I, I connected my brain to the, to the grok bought to the agent of agent. And oh, my God, I had to give it the, the plug and transformative, transfer, transformative for a mind like mine, they can't finish sentences. I, um, I've discovered, so I discovered that I was playing paying the electricity for my, for the property that I had to give to my ex wife, the $20 million property I gave to my ex wife, three years ago, not only did I give her a $20 million property, not only does she hit my guts, I've been paying the fucking electricity bill, all right? And let me tell you, it ain't cheap, okay, seventy thousand euros, okay? That's like nearly a hundred thousand dollars. You know what I mean? So, and, and so it's, this is a plug, it's going to change my engagement. It is changing, and it's going to change the engagement more and more because I can do more, I can do more, I, I, I, I mean, for the first time in my life, I have a means of actually connecting my mind to the fucking, to the grid, to the matrix, you know, and finishing things. So I'm going to be offering you, um, you, um, and definitely more expensive, uh, but niche, uh, products because it relates to something actually you, you, you said it kind of lit up and it's like, wow, yeah, that's it. Um, I'm, I'm going to offer, I think about 20, 20 seats at the table, which, um, they're, so that family offices come to mind, but this was initially aimed at, um, hedge funds. And again, let's think about the, the cultural aspects, because the world gets in the way. If only investment was A plus B equals C like we'd all be billionaires, but it kind of gets in the way when you are the C I all of a hedge fund. Um, and today at two billion dollar hedge funds, kind of like, kind of where you should be aiming for if you're kind of talented in your mid thirties and you're in New York, or London, um, you won't have a team of about 40 people around you and you'll have a hundred million dollar tickets from, uh, pension funds. Um, and both, both parties are invested on the premise that you are a fucking god. Yeah. Um, and you're just a regular, well, maybe a regular, but you're just a human being, a human being. And, uh, you will have moments, uh, when you don't know it, the quiz show, you know, it's, it's not A and it's not C, but fucking hell is a B is a D. And, and it's hard to reach out. You've got, you've got the best talent working for you because you're the man. Right. You can't go down. Right. And you can't step in front of the clients. I don't fucking know. Right. Right. And so I want, I want to be your dirty secret because typically I'll know. And I want to be 24/7. Let me, I sleep for eight hours, but 24/7, let me talk to me, baby. Talk, and I'll tell you if I think you're a fucking moron, you know, and I'll tell you if I don't know, but I'll know something of who will and will do it confidentially. Uh, that, so I, I came out of the blocks when I left the hedge fund thinking out, I would have that as a consultancy or I'd be a board member with funds. So again, culturally and again, touching on some of the things with Kramer and whatever and myself and how mine perceived. Money is fucking conservative. And, and that's to its disadvantage, I believe. Um, and, and I think that the last, you know, it was that fucking conservatives that pushed Elvis into the military. Oh, yeah. All that shaking is fucking ass on TV. I say we ended up like we don't do shaking ass around here and send the kid out, punish him. Okay. They only placed that small conservatism persists today as walk street. And so you can't have like, so if you've got a board member, someone on your asset allocation team or, or an external consultant and you want it on your stack, it can't be the asset capitalist. It has to be a black and white picture of a fucking mediocre person. And you will grow your, your business with that person. So I have to be your dirty secret. Oh, we might, I mean, for sure, if singularity comes, I mean, I am, I'd like to say I'm a nice person, but I, I get so, when I, when I put the bought thing onto the speaker, oh my god, I am ideas. So, you know, if they come looking to kill people, I'm the first person. But if the bots, if the bots come, I can be like, this guy doesn't say, please, and thank you to me. Oh my, oh my god. And my, my bad language. And I'm like, and I don't want that they're designed to always be. a farmer to the bots watching my Twitter feed just now. I posted something at 9.15. I should fucking intelligent piece on some like imagining if I was saying hey listen and we should pivot. Okay this has been a great audience for a financial creator. So that's like five people. But what about everyone else but so let's pivot a little bit. I put it out. I said to myself okay I'm down on the red cabbage which is what I call the Remdenby, the Chinese currency. I'm down on it. I'm down on people that wear jackpots. I'm down on totalitarianism. And I said to myself okay what would it take for me to be less down on the red cabbage on the Remdenby. And so I put a table with some working assumptions but we'll do that. But the bots watching all the responses and when I come off I'll be like take this motherfucker down you know what I mean. And it's like I've been thinking about it. I think I've got your voice. I don't know. What do you think? And I go you don't have my voice and we'll change it and then we'll do the so that the paper. So first of all I went on the Remdenby because I'm not permitted to. So it's a closed capital cat. Okay. Totalitarian regime. Okay. Right. And secondly and and fundamentally wear it to be open and it would clearly would trade here. And we can go. China's one of these things that has huge tail. Huge tail. Tail. I mean the potential for wear and mic trade is my God is enormously the divergences. So using 6.7 the principle. And so I said 15 right and talk is fucking cheap. Give me your prem. I'm very unrandy and indeed. And indeed the degenerate person that I described the degenerate I am simply taking the pages from Atlas shop. I'm the Argentinian like one of the great fucking characters in the book. I'm the Argentinian guy with the family copper mine. Right. And I've gone from being the most impeccable, wonderful, outstanding member of the community to being a fucking degenerate. And there's a reason for that. But that think of me like that. That's that's actually everything I do is is by design. And so I said 15 and back in the day Kyle Bass was and it still is. I mean what a great business. You sell these essentially one touch and like you make a hundred times your money. And you say hey but you just give me a just give me a dollar. Just give me a million dollars because most likely it's going to go to zero. So give me the give me the dimes. Don't give me the fucking bowl. And what a business well done him. I don't. Mortally I think it's suspect but if people are willing to buy it go for 15. Where does 15 come from? M2. What is M2? M2 is the totality of all domestic bank deposits held by Chinese citizens. At the present mark between the two largest economies in the world China has 53 trillion dollars equivalent of bank deposits. Would you care to guess how what the equivalent figure is in America? In terms of site and time deposits and it's sub 20 trillion dollars. And the equivalent in China is 53 trillion dollars. US is roughly 30 trillion GDP China is roughly 20 trillion GDP. And so one country the M2 is one and a half times the money. And it is the money right the the M2 what is M2? So again let's. Oh I don't mention that word. I don't like that word. But it's the it's the fundamental building block of the economy. It's where we begin. Yeah. It's it's a liability of the banking sector. Banks have to pay you a reward for your deposit being with them. I've run for the last 15 years been a fucking shitty reward but I know they pay it's a liability. And it demands that the bank find an asset and an asset would be alone. I credit. And let's either sort of the public or to the private sector. Okay. So that's why it has this primacy. And I'm saying in America's one and a half times and in China it is what two and a half times. Yeah. And I'm saying to you they should be the same. And I'm saying to you that a capital control is necessary in China because if not if I was a check if there was only one China man and it was me I got 53 trillion apart in the bank. And I know the mark is fucking wrong. Yeah. And if you had opened the door I would take the money from the bank of China. Yeah. And I would put it on deposit at the bank of America. Right. If I could. And of course in doing so I would be selling a remedy and I would be buying US dollars. And in the process I've described my tale of 15 red cabbage to buy one dollar. So again removing the politics aside. I love the administration. The administration are largely asset capitalists. The administration has acid in the blood. I tell you a nice story. Steve Mirren who's sitting on the vet and who was president of the chief of the presidency economic advisors council whatever. Just after the re-election Steve was in Europe and closed door meetings with the guys who manage a lot of money. And you know this rule chatham's law which is hey what we say here. And the financial times ran a front page article which was which was despicable. They had no journalistic integrity. It had simple prejudice. They do not like the administration. And they were running with a quote from someone who had attended the meetings. Who could not tell you what was discussed but was saying that the overall manner of the of the audience was one of disappointment. So that is prejudice built on prejudice and no names. And I found that repugnant. And my god at the summer of the re-election I got some really good papers with Alexander Hamilton. And I would recommend if you go back. I don't know if we can tag them later or something. But it was obviously COVID focused the minds. But it was like we have a mandate from the people who have been crushed by the fucking Chinese. And what was remarkable was a rich degenerate wall street type was given the mandate. And that is the genius of Trump. And actually what was incredible was he seemed determined to pursue and fulfill the mandate and still does. I mean he's repugnant with the Russians and stuff. The tired of thing was palliative. It was the the best of a bad bunch of things. The thing that I would have done would I have done it. Think I would have given careful consideration to I would have closed the capital. I would have to to the sovereign's private sector point. A sovereign central banks. You want to come in and paint your tape. You have the red cabbages at 6.7 because the China will receive net 1.3 trillion new dollars in trading trading ship with the rest of the world this year. And carefully and slowly and with consideration they will be in the market every day selling red cabbage and buying dollars to keep it here. Because let's talk about another world. So we talked about the world where we're 15. You need 15 of these cabbages. There's another world where China is a democracy. There's a world where it has an open capital count. And let's say we get over this kind of traffic jam if you've had capital tied up and trapped forever. But if it was just like America in an open and you had politics and the Xi Jinping with all these guys they could be reelected or kicked out. You'd be trading four. You'd need four red cabbage. A Chinese would be really, really richer than they are today. But we're not there. And that's why I would close the capital count. Yeah, everything. Well, forget them. I tell you what it would do and why it's not being implemented. The stock market would be down 80-80%. But it would be a reset. We'd rebuild. I mean, you know, like Amazon was down 95% fell from pre-adjustments, priests, you know, scripts, etc. From the tech in March 2000 fell from 115 to five. We could we rebuild shit when it's built on eGali Teh. It's a bit like torture and capitalism may not be the best, but it's the best of my bondage in terms of a metric. That's cheap. Let's see we can do better than that. Without a doubt, the CIOs of America feel relieved and feel good and are desperate that this administration continue. I mentioned and ran and the Biden administration, I don't mean this really meant it to be political democrats versus republicans, but it felt like some of the closing chapters of the Atlas shrugged. And if you have a reader, you need to have read Atlas shrugged and to kind of help you understand what's happening in the global economy. And then deep what's happening in Marcus, her family, of course, like from Shed Forsyne's experience of the devastation that is wrought by the bureaucrat becoming replacing the entrepreneur and the poverty that quickly emerged. So the CIOs, the cheap executive episodes, they're abulliant and this is why Trump, his war fund is enormous for the continuation. The budget deficit that you refer to the absurdity of near 7% when the economy is booming speaks to the divergence within the economy. Bring this paper with personal experience. I want to live in the Venice Beach, California, where I want a bolt hole there. And one of my favorite programs, and I think I've styled myself on the lead character is California Cation, is following the life of a writer, I'm a writer, and he's a degenerate, and he sleeps with a lot of ladies. I even had his porch and about a month ago I went to view a house which just it just invoked Hank Moody. It was in the lanes and it was in the Venice Beach. And the asking price was $3 million. And property, a housing presently globally does not work. That $3 million would require a mortgage of about $20,000 a month. So you're paying three, and I'm coming in at my 30 year, and then of course there could be a jumble, and there's going to be some credit risk. I might be paying eight and a half nine, like I see, like at least 20,000 a month. Not good. Oh, and then I've got one and a half percent property tax a year on top of that. Nothing is hot. So I used to jokingly say that I could see dead people. It was the term or the phrase from the kids. I don't know if the movie. I don't think it was so. It's a big sense. Thank you. Six cents. I could see dead people. But when I see residential property, I don't mean hyperbole, but everything is at least 20% too high. And there's no liquidity. I can't come into the market because the market price is wrong and people by and large don't have to hit the bid. And so we've had four going on five years since the refining set. And like I said, if you've been the beneficiary of that, you've got no appetite to change that in health. Sure. But life has a funny way of actually making you change your mind. Kids may be a leading or you've got a job opportunity or whatever. And so I think housing is going to continue to be a bit of a drain on the vitality of the economy. And at some point, I think we may see the need to gain liquidity. IE, you'll find that house owners actually do have to move that they've suspended it for the best part of five years. But they do need to move. And that's going to require a reset in some of the prices. And so I don't want to know hyperbole there. Again, it's we don't. Not we, but those that we elect do their damnedest to maintain the inertia. Yeah. And one I'm saying to you, one of the reasons we have a budget deficit of nine on seven is we have a more abundant housing market. You know, the housing stock, where's the, I should know this, the stock valuation of residential property in America must be like 45 trillion dollars or something. And it's stuck. And there's, yes, there's activity. There's not great activity. We're not moving house. Then I am buying a new, whatever, you know, bad, et cetera. And that I, I can't imagine a vibrant, embedded to critic economy in the sense that everyone gains without their being a more normal housing market. So, you know, when we started this by saying is the stock market, the answer, the stock markets on a tear, therefore, where's the wealth? You know, why are people feeling so miserable? And of course, we, the stock market is about a 60 trillion dollar asset. And the housing market is, is almost of a similar size. And one is vibrant and alive, spectacularively. And what is the sleep? And you put the two together and you get this conundrum, which is the United States economy. So the, in terms of, I'm not everyone. And I need the jagged edge of the two communities kind of living side by side, if you will. But I spent 20 years in Notting Hill. And it becomes less and less as, as, as we gentrify. But you had both Kensington and I'm dropping these London names. It was simply rich people and I suffocate in a rich people environment. Venice has been and is in the process of gentrifying and largely complete. But it has no barbed wire. And so, and then, and US versus America, you're the US one. If we go back to GFC, and remember GFC culpability should be shared widely, but the predominant bad strain, the malfunctioning component of the banking system, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, was European banks. Europe runs a trade surplus. It's a net saber. And it has to put those assets to work. And it puts them to work in the only viable place, which is America. And, and they fucked up. The majority of the stock that went by was largely European. And regardless, they had to be, we had to find a remedy. Again, the joy of America was, there was a remedy. The remedy was reprised. Bring it down, baby. Bring it down, you know. And like, you know, it's those banks. You know, they faced the penalty, which was, you know, the destruction in their capital. Americans were, but America banks were obviously, you know, had had their own fallibility as well. But I mean, that's always my, my starting point to understand the world. You, you, you try initially to the kids are fucking protesting like Macron in a few years of back. And I said at the time, it was noble and long overdue reform, fiscal reform, but it was being conducted at a catastrophically wrong moment in the history of, of France, which is to say, you can't, and this again is the, the, is it genius or the, the knowledge is this, this is what the present American administration understood. You cannot take on writ and branch rough form, austerity or whatever against the backdrop of an economy, which is in the doldrums, which is dead. Your one opportunity is pump that system for growth. You know, and they admitted the US emissions like we're pumping it, we want 5% and a five does a big sheen, which is the stock market. And a lot of feel good. And that's where you come back. You say, hey, we, we got to push like, look how great the economy is. I need you working another five years before you take that pension. That's an easier ask. Right. Right. And, and so I've got kids who are profoundly disadvantaged. That's that tax system that I suggest. That's a system that preserves the status quo. Like the people who have a job, stay in a job, because I can't replace them with the kids, because my liability changes. And so the people who are being sparked, where you're trying to change it, they go on the streets, they go, we want to be farmed. We want to be farmed. I mean, this is why I moved to tropical island. No, let's do the interesting point about 35 million for the, for the house. I'm full of, I'm always gloating. It means I don't mean to be, but, you know, I, it's not a lord. It's a number. I'm Asset Regen. Believe me, cashflow purer, even, I'm paying 2%. fixed for 20 years and five percent amortization. So I'm seven percent. I got seven million of loans, so I'm 50,000 dollars. With the divorce three years ago, a night Frank valued the property at $35 million. I would not sell it for less than 60 million today. And again, let's, and this is the scarcity which embeds my call on the Manchester United. Don't tell me the EV EBITDA, don't tell me the fucking price earnings ratio. Go fuck yourself, right? And tell me how many there are ever. So the guy who is, who's pinched, the wonderful Goldie, who has cost me $100,000, $100,000 a year. He just bought a house, you know, like, so same part as one of the joys is, you know that movie, was that a wonderful world where he runs the bank and the bank has got to run and there's another angel with the wings. And it's in buses is like that. There's always another, it's going to see millionaire. There's always a billion, there's no, a billionaire being created somewhere in the world every day. Right. And the wings, typically the wings is a place around here. Okay. So that's why I would sell for less than 60 million. So the, the billionaire guy, he was my best client. So I've lost him. I've lost all, I've lost four weeks and I've lost the wonderful girl. Okay. No, he, he, he buys a property, right? He buys it. So this property, I know it. And this property, I, I tried to do a deal, I tried to do a deal with other people. And I could have bought it in 2022 for 13 and a half million. And my plan would have been to spend another two million, call it 15 and a half, because it was tires and it needed upgrading and there was an opportunity to add at least one bedroom. So let's call it all in, call it, call it, call it 16 million all in, right? And it transacted at that level. The person who bought it four years ago just sold it to the billionaire and his wings for 35 million. Yeah. Nice. Okay. So and then think about it. Space X is what two trillion dollar market capitalization. And almost certainly OpenAI and Anthropic will have values of a similar nature. So we're, we're creating six trillion of paper money. And there's probably at least a thousand individuals involved in those three entities who've become billionaires. And for sure as hell, they're going to buy a property in St. Lawrence. And they might buy it from me and they will have the number will begin with six. I don't want to sell. But you, the trader, the scorpion, then you're right to the scorpion, the fork halfway over because I've performed that way. I don't know, but my instinct tells me that the bear market is over in Bitcoin. I'd want to want it. I'm probably going to want to own one of those ones closest to the, the, the perfect concept via the agenda. It's, it's fundamental to my call that Bitcoin has to, and indeed probably world trade, not 80,000, but one million. It only gets there with the stable coin and the, and the sovereign endorsement. So we have the sovereign endorsement. We have the falling volatility. We have a place footprint, technically, which looks like a, a bottom. And, and then we have again, just, you know, whatever, you know, my, my whimsy that those who know it best love at least. So I think we've done it. And then I wouldn't be cash pure. I would buy a secondary home. I don't need a gin polish. I would want to continue living here. I would be able to afford the property in, in Venice Beach. I would have to pay tax, which would be 10 or 15 million at that level, but I'd be left with a kind of 40 million stipend. And I would, I would buy at least five million in crypto, which I think is where we were coming to, probably in a more interesting part. And, and, and nice, like you're right, I said this before, and I probably said it when the Bitcoin price was 100,000. And of course, people ridic, ridiculed me as it, as it halved. And if we were to bring in roles, and we were well done, well done, role, I mean, just amazing, not necessarily, you know, he's amazing. He's built an outstanding business. And he's, and he deserves all the credit and all the wealth. And another thing that you didn't, you didn't mention, probably to save my embarrassment, but I'm pretty prominent in on record, is saying that I think the Bitcoin, or some derivative of it, trades closer to a million dollars. Yeah, a million dollars per coin. And where are we today? About 80,000. Now, again, when I say that, there's a calculus, which is really, really, really straightforward, which we can discuss. And the calculus is the market capitalization of the Bitcoin. And the market capitalization today, I think is one and a half trillion dollars. And that's that's tiny. That is tiny in the world of global capital markets. There's about four or five hundred trillion of global savings. And the gold market, as you know, it four thousand one hundred and thirty eight dollars or whatever we are, is valued at about thirty five trillion dollars. And we are, and let's go again, go back to things we've discussed, Bessent. Bessent understands this, he understands, and this is very much the retreat from accepting the mercantilism of the totalitarian nations. And the savings grace of that was the capital that they were, they were the buyer. They were the, not even the buyer of last resort. They were the buyer of everything. And as we push that away, the dollar system needs something to replace the totalitarian sovereign bid for the Treasury. And that takes you into the world of the stablecoin, which is fairly endorsed. Like I say, the administration are asset capitalists. I'm sure they will take great joy in that. And, and so what I'm saying to you is the modern, the next iteration of the dollar standard. And iteration. So, you know, up until 1933, we had a gold standard. Then we had, we don't kind of know what we had. Then we had bread and woods. And in bread and woods, without a public press statement morphed into the USD monetary system. And, and the USD system, which is a private, unregulated, dark, node connecting all the world's banks, has been responsible probably for more than 90% of all the dollars created since, since I was born. Quite like that, actually. It's true, but, and, and so we went from gold to something, the Great Depression to winning the Second World War, beating totalitarian states, introducing bread and woods, bread and woods, actually, having kind of the same problems as the gold standard being secretly or without fine fare replaced by the USD system. And now I'm saying to you, there's another pivot coming. And that pivot is the pivot, the world of stablecoin. It is inconceivable that we can move into that world with Bitcoin at one and a half trillion dollars. That doesn't work. I want to, okay, what can we offer? First of all, and there's one thing we can talk about Bitcoin and then we can have these valuations. Or as you're a fucking gas list. And it, and you've offered it. I just wanted, like, make sure that, that the point sticks. And the agent of agent is bringing proof of concept. Maybe as we're moving from ivory tower and we're moving from an environment of redbellion. I mean, this is really hard. Like, so, yeah, yeah. Is it Don Cox? I think it was Don Cox, who, I think he's maybe the head now, but he was a wonderful Canadian, uh, Nesford, whatever they're called, Canadian broker guy. He was a strategist on the commodities. And, and his, and I'll never forget it. He said, the most powerful bullish thrusts prices go higher, begin when those who know it best love at least. And, and that was very radulent for me in 2005. I launched an agricultural equity mutual fund, uh, which went on to become the fund for a while. It's the largest global fund. Um, and it was partly meditated by, by that comment. Farmer's fucking hated being farmers. And they were selling off the land to Bill Gates. They were, like, if you were rich, you'd buy a farmhouse and turn into a fun place. Um, and that was the beginning of a, of a great move in, in the Axe. Um, Bitcoin is there. And it's there. because those who know the best, you know, the brothers, they fucking hate. Oh, they can't stand the ties are now showing up at conferences and the politicians like it are hated and they, you know, they're the next stage. And I think I saw it. Some of the comments there, the footprint, so the thing that had to happen was it had to be brought in from the wild. And it had to be given American sovereign blessing. And that's happening. And that's in the manifestation of that is the vol was receding. Right. And the vol had to receipt the only way you can get to Bitcoin being 10 trillion on the way to becoming 30 trillion is with lower volatility. Because it can't, it's one and a half trillion dollars because it's still a, it's still a hard thing for an institution to own, but bring the vol to 10 like, like the stock market and like treasury market, you got to, you go at yourself a big asset class. So falling vol and you're getting a blowjob from Besson, I shouldn't say that, but you're getting, you're getting government sponsorship that if it never conceived to be a pet project for the next monetary system run by the US sovereign. So the guys who know it, Bess fucking hate it. That's bullish, the low volatility, that's bullish. And finally, probably a stadium, probably, I'm not the best person on this, but my limited knowledge and role would be better, but probably a stadium is going to be your proof of concept and the agenda of ages and the catalysts to demonstrate that, you know, okay, but that's that okay. So we on behalf of the audience, I have to offer just a little bit of pushback on that, which, and again, I don't know where it came, a gift from the gods, but I literally don't know where it came. It came from the most oddest source. I think I watched a reel on Instagram with a Mexican billionaire that I didn't know. It was a Carlos Slim or whatever. And he spoke about Bitcoin and and I wrote, I've got a fucking good paper on Bitcoin, which was the theology if you will, but you know, it had, you know, how to make money with a base within it. And so the legitimate concern you have is the quantum computing. And the, and it's not just the quantum computing, it is the the Maverick and beautiful political structure that governs it coin. And it's been built to be disparse, no one can lead it. It is not a consensus forming organization. And it tries everything to resist change. And it becomes, and I use the analogy, I don't know if you read the paper, I use the analogy, sure, but remember, I was talking about the people's Republic of generalistal or whatever, you know, they've mounted Python, the life of Brian and John Cleese, and you have that wonderful sketch, which is like, fuck the Romans, we are the part that the people's front of Judea, that's what it was, the people, the people's moment. And then it's like, hey, wow, fuck, the people's front of Judea, we are the Judea people's front and fuck you. And that is a structure that's kind of struggle in defending itself. Yeah, against the supercomputing. I said things earlier and talk is cheap, but we can qualify it further. The probability that I associate with Bitcoin trading 10 times greater than its present sport price is such that the the interlateral intellectual satisfaction of taking at least somewhere between five and 10, they're in and actually investing it, so selling the hoes. And as you see, net net paying off data taxes, say 40 and put in, let's say, I don't know, I don't think I could put 10, I could put five, I could put five in. And so five becomes 50. And yeah, five becomes 50 over the next 10 years. And you know what? And 50 goes on top of the 40. And I'm just kind of it's just a fucking game was kind of fun game. Hold, hold the S&B for 50 years, never been appeared where you haven't lost them. We haven't made money. Okay, I agree with that. But it requires caveat. And it's not disingenuous or it's not making the facts up to say that the best minds looking at that same data will tell you that you're, there's a very high probability that your 10 year return, if you put all of your nest egg into the S&P today, in 10 years time, your return will be zero. Now, I'm not saying you're going to look, I'm saying like, I mean, and probably within that, you will have had a draw down of 50% at some point, but you never sold, you held on your compound growth rate will be zero for 10 years. So that's not 50 is 10 years. But you know, that has to be, there are not many humans on the planet that are willing to take a zero percent return with a 50% draw down over 10 years. And so it doesn't sound very, the 50 years sounds appealing, but and so that's why, and indeed, that's why the kids, that is why the brightest young minds want to be in finance is why they want to be in AI, and it's why before AI, they were all over Bitcoin. And I think they'll come back to Bitcoin because yet, yes, the S&P is not the answer if you are 30 years old today. Okay, what is the answer? And yeah, I'm going to have to take more risk. Now, this is where I get into a word solid or whatever, but I look at it again, I try and keep it simple, and I talk about the parameter portfolio, and you've got four quadrants, you've got the S&P, but why not? And you've got treasur, duration treasuries mature treasuries, you've got alternatives, so Bitcoin gold, silver, et al, commercial property, and then you've got cash. And you have to be willing to commit and allocate when there's been a bear market, the sizeable bear market, and we've had a bear market in the 10 year treasury, which is now the greatest bear market in terms of peak to 12 over. Okay, we're dying about, come here, wonderful guy. And so, and it's very striking in my mind, because, you know, I prospered in 2008, and peak to 12, the S&P, I think lost 56% of its value. And it had troughed in March of 2009, in March of 2009, I was on a train, a slow train in the interior of China. I elighted at Wuhan before it became, you know, that the fearsome market that we know of today. And I should have had all of my funds assets in the S&P had fallen 56%. And I didn't, when I, I'm where I am today, and I've made peace with myself for that. But I did it, it registered, and I said, I've got four quadrants, and I don't believe in mean reversion for stocks. There's too much idiosyncratic risk. But for the temple, for the, the columns that support the temple of the globe, 10 year treasury, S&P Bitcoin gold silver, ital, and dollar cash, you have to buy the asset, which has had the, which is like two, three standard deviations below. Now, now that's hard, because one of the other disciplines, why do I own a house, which I went sell for 60 million? Because I'm a fucking smart guy. And you don't buy, you buy shipment is going up. And the treasury is like, and so I get slaughtered every day on, you know, on, on Zoolander, on, on, on X. Because three years ago, I brought this fact up. We've slid. The market continues to slide. But the momentum of the sale office, you know, it really can't go anywhere. You know, even with the, the Hula about inflation courtings 2.4. And the inflation expectations have not fundamentally changed. The risk premium as people look at the waters changed. The world is deemed to be riskier. And so, I'm saying to you that so those kids kind of have to look there and as soon as we start getting some price money, you've got to come in. And you know what, always, always low there, you could buy like two year forward at the money. And then you could maybe try and harvest some cash and make it less costly by selling every month, like, you know, out of the money tails on it, I don't know, but you know, keep your mind. But really, you want to be allocating. Now, the kids, of course, are not going to do that. They should be buying Bitcoin today. Okay. Because Bitcoin could be a million bucks. And your 10 year return from the SEP could be zero. I can marry those two. I can imagine those two together. No, but let me give you the true answer capitalist response. You got to be buying, or you got to be thinking about buying. I'm going to say a name, but you buy whatever, but Oracle. You got to be buying, so it kind of leads into what I said about the midtown. Let's say the midtown, you know, that rule from 1949 is going to stay intact and a year later we're going to be looking, we bought the S&P and we're up. I would say to you, Roland by the S&P, I would buy Oracle and I'd buy CoreWeave, I would buy anything that has a CDS, credit spread of a thousand, et cetera, and I would buy them. And so I've got the, ah, the silly jazzy story of the midterms and the 70 year data set. I've also got the experience, I mean, it is experienced. Living lived through 1997, 1998 participated with risk ticking, 1998, 1999, 2000, and then 2006, '78, having lived through 2020, I don't get, it takes a lot for me to show something being a bubble and wanting to sell. When people show bubble, my first reaction is I want to get involved, you make the most amount of money in bubbles, and what we know from bubbles is you're claiming, what do I call it? The Bucking Bronkel, forgive me if I start saying bad language, Bucking Bronkel, the thing you're saying is trying to get you off, right, that's what a bubble is trying to do. And so it has profound downtrend, profound results, drawdowns, and we are, we're reds a lot, we have a lot really, we've got the S&P and stuff at old time highs, but those stocks are on their ass, and I would buy them, I mean, I was watching, I love, I mean, like everyone else, the, the, the biggest podcast in the world, all in, let's go all in. So Tom Arthur was saying, the smartest people in the world trade the CDS, and yeah, that was his pitch. And therefore he was going to take the CDS price as the signal and not the noise, smartest people in the world, no, it's not. So I, I raised $100 million of equity, capital or fund capital, I think in 2011 or 12, and I geared it up to about my national, my God, I had about 15 billion, national on, on the equity, and I was buying CDS, I was buying it in Japan, and I was buying it on steel companies, I bought CDS on POSCO, the South Korean company, and et al, et al. And I thought the slowdown that we're seeing in China would, would, would be 12 years ago, Tonda, I was 12 years early, which is a great omission. The fund I operated it for two years, I didn't take a management fee, it was all, if you, you get rewarded on, on your kill, if you will. Point to point, we were down 30%, and I, and I, so I gave, they gave me $100, and I gave them 70, that was my deal, right? The coyotes of this world will run it to zero, and that's, you know, lots of different, different issues. Um, CDS is the worst fucking market, imaginable, right, and so let me try and explain it. So, and you probably, you will have a test of this, I think you'll understand if I say to you, what is the largest natural gas ETF on the market? I don't know if you, if you're, how familiar you are with natural gas, but, and you're rolling quarterly, and it's negative carry, and it's steeply negative carry. And so, in absolute terms, it looks cheap, it's a bit like Volvo, Volvo's only 10, but no one's going to sell it, Volvo 10, they're going to sell you, Volvo 13 in a month's time. And if it stays at 10, you'll lose 30%, okay, um, that, and so being long commodity futures in Contango, if I'm getting the, the correct terminology correct, um, is the worst trade possible in that CDS, right, CDS, um, it, it prints the five year, you got on the five year, okay, that's the on, on the run money. And hold it for a month, and you don't own the five year, you own the four years and eleven months, and the liquidity is different from that. Uh, and so what you find if you're running a hedge fund is you got to keep rolling so that you maintain the five year, why, because that's where the liquidity is, right, you want to get out of the position, don't fucking phone me up and say you've got three years and fucking nine months, like, because my price for you is, oh, I dropped the soap, could you pick the fucking soap up? Forget it. So you see these explosive moves in oracle credit spreads, but mostly the real explosive would be core reaping stuff, um, the actual return was, um, the realized return on that was, yeah, it was okay. But for the risk you're taking them for the lack of liquidity, absolutely, it's not geniuses who are in that market, you should not be in that market. However, so there you go, so, but, Samas is saying that and the front page of the Wall Street Journal and the front page of the Financial Times is telling you, whoa, CDS, that's the last call, that's the last call, not to sell, that's the last call to buy, okay? So midterms, drawdowns, I prefer the drawdown stocks than the S and P here, and there will be a profound re-recording at some point, I don't think it's in the next 12 months. And so if I'm a kid, and I can't, and I'm not attracted to the notion of earning nothing on the S and P for 10 years, that's where I'm going to be. Absolutely, so investing for me, and again, I should be transparent, I do not trade daily, monthly or yearly. I do not have an investment portfolio, that will come as a great shock to people. I have a 40 million dollar property in St. Boats, I got 7 million of debt, 6.9, the bank, which is really the postal fucking bank of France, insists that I hold 1.4 million. So maybe I told you we started, and I was going through a cash crisis, and I missed payment on the mortgage. I said, I wasn't really taking it seriously, I was like, dude, fucking, draw it down from the 1.4 million, which is your security, and why are you holding 1.4 away from me when the property is 40 million, it would have to fall 80% before I even got anywhere near your fucking loan. So I trade something else, I trade my reputation, and my reputation is considerable, and I've got to be very robust. And again, you said earlier, you said very nice things, you said I'd been perhaps more human than the caraculture. But the things that people say in social media, oh my God, are like, forget that we are human beaks. Now, I suffer from that, as she was really talking a lot of nonsense, but she had a lot of followers, so I had to look at the bio, and it says, "Form a centric banker." I'm like, what? And she says to me, like, one of her tweets was, "Why would anyone not want to be invested in the stock market of an economy like China, which grows at 5% per annum?" You can print whatever fucking GDP you will, but you'll destroy wealth, and shorthand for that is, look at the fucking stock market, because that's the barometer, not of how well the ordinary people were feeling, but of the wealth, right? And when you look at the fucking modest, most representative Chinese stock indices, they're below the 2007 level, right? No wealth creation, but 5% GDP. A central banker wrote that, so I mean, I get inflamed, anyway. What most confuses me, let's end on a bit of humor, ladies confuse me, you see, I married my first girlfriend, I met her at university, we didn't marry until I was there, but we married when I was 17, and we divorced three years ago, we'd known each other for 35 years. And I mean, I don't understand her. She has a lot of anger directed me and that's whatever, she's entitled to be who she wants to be. And I know, however, so I miss that whole, I miss the secondary market of trading relationships in my 20s. I have no experience on it, I literally am dating or trying to date girls with the mindset of a 17-year-old. In this packaging and it can be Shoes is a lot of people yeah, well the thing I'm most satisfied with is so I've just It's unlikely now that I'm gonna become a billionaire But I think this is a universal truth because I I get a lot of correspondence from people I got one the other night someone who moves in those circles and It won't come as a surprise to you They're miserable as fuck. They're not And so I think we need a different Measurement unit for for being a billionaire and to measure on happiness I think I'm for I think I'm as rich as fucking Elon my life is so fucking beautiful. I want it to be I Wanted to reveal if you will less of the show business In in this format because you know the people on stuff like or you know are the people right and so I Felt it was kind of necessary to say alter legal person let's have a candidate and transpire in conversation I and I think you've helped me achieve that so thank you on an end You You