Let's Rank Outfielders! Is JJ Bleday Legit? (5/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

[MUSIC] Happy Kunklemote Friday and welcome in. >> Top fantasy baseball today on May 15th. I am Frank Stamford, join by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, J.J. Bladay is on a heater. And he might be a legit breakout. We'll talk about that. We'll rank some waiver wire outfielders. The meds might have some things going on there. Buy or sell and much more. But first, we want to welcome a new sponsor to the podcast. Which brings us to the players of the night brought to you by StitchFix. If you're like me and clothes shopping, isn't your thing? StitchFix has you covered, get $20 off your first order at stitchfix.com/baseball. Let's jump in. >> My goodness gracious. >> All right, Chris, you are the lucky man who won himself. J.J. Bladay as his last night. >> I mean, I showed up first. I guess that's the only reason I get to take him. >> Yeah. >> And I will take J.J. Bladay. Who remains amazing? He hit two home runs on Thursday. That gives him six in 16 games since joining the Reds. He has started 15 games in a row for the Cincinnati Reds. He is hitting 321 with a 1210 OPS. He has 17 RBI in 16 games. 10 walks to nine strikeouts. It's all feeling very Andrew Vaughan, circa July of 2025, as when he started getting hot with the Brewers. There are real reasons to think that this may be legitimate, like you said, because he had a decent 2024 season. He was a kind of fringe fantasy outfielder in 2024, 20 homers, 761 OPS, pretty close to an everyday player for the A's. Last year he started tweaking his swing and it just did not work for him. He talked about, you know, he was the way he put it. I was basically double loading when I was trying to swing and it just wasn't fluid and he was late on everything. And he went back to his 2024 swing this season. The one thing I have not been able to find though is what has this guy been eating? Because he has gone from 71.7 mile per hour average swing speed, average bat speed in 2024 to 74.9 this year. That is a 3.2 mile per hour increase in bat speed. That's a big deal. Like the spreads on bat speed are very much like exit velocity. They're not that big. You know, the high end, the low end, you're not talking maybe like 10, 12 miles per hour. And he has jumped up 3.2 miles per hour without lengthening his swing, which is a big deal because usually when you have a faster swing, you also have a longer swing. John Carlos Stanton, one of the longest swings in baseball, also one of the fastest swings in baseball. J.J. Bill Day has managed to increase his swing speed without increasing his swing length. His fast swing rate, which is all swings above 75 miles per hour, is up from 17% in 2020 to 49.5% this season. And he's doing it without changing the shape of the swing. So his attack angle, the bat tilt is very similar to what it was in 2024. And so what it all kind of sounds like to me is we're taking the previous best version that we've seen of J.J. Bill Day and just kind of supercharging it. And that was a not terrible player, you know, an above average hitter in real life. And he's kept a lot of the plate discipline after it got worse last year. It's it's regressed to 2024 in a good way. Arguably has gotten even better actually because he's walked more than he struck out. I don't know. Everything looks real here. And like I said, it feels very much like Andrew Vaughn when where former top prospect but day was not as highly regarded as Andrew Vaughn. But he was the number four pick in the draft at one point. And it just looks like maybe it's all starting to click now for him in a way that I didn't see coming. The reds didn't see coming. I mean, he had a big spring, but he was hitting like 57% ground balls. And they sent him down after his big spring. And if you remember, Reese Hines got called up when the reds needed an outfielder first. So they clearly did not see this coming despite these signs being there in the spring. Despite these signs definitely being there in triple A. He started hitting the ball in the air with authority more often at triple A. I'm skeptical because I am skeptical by nature. Worst 90s hip hop band skeptical by nature. And I would expect him to slow down considerably. But he might be, I don't know, an E50 OPS back, which would be a 350 point drop in OPS from where he is now, but would also make him a very viable fantasy option in that ballpark. Yeah. Anybody with the 1210 OPS is going to slow down if Aaron Judge had his 1210 OPS. He would be due to slow down. Well, maybe that's that's the one. That's the ever done 12 before he's done 11 a few times. Yeah. Yeah, I think this is probably the third or fourth time we've had that is JJ Blade for real conversation on this podcast. So I'm just going to say, yeah, I think he's for real. Like, there has been no stretch this year, this calendar year where JJ Blade hasn't looked like a must start outfielder. 200 bright appearances. Triple A in the spring. Yeah. And now in the majors. And this was his second straight start against the left-hander. I think based on how it went, he's going to get a third, you know? And then you add the big jump in average bat speed. I mean, that's what we're attributing to George Springer's massive improvement last year. That's what we're attributing to Dalton Varshoes massive improvement, though it's regressed for Varshoes. Yeah, both of them have kind of given. Well, no, I mean, there's a whole thing. Springer's holding. Yeah, it's just he's been hurt so much, I think. But yeah, it's it's a big deal. It's a big deal when you can swing with more intent as the term they like to use within the game. And it seems like Blade is doing that. And you do see the need for that more with players like Blade. I mean, Blade drafted by the Marlins traded to the athletics, always stood out for how much he gets on base. And I think sometimes they can get in their head. I need to be really cautious at the plate. And hopefully Blade's turned that corner. But whatever the psychology behind it, he just he looks like he's figured it out. I agree. 42% roster is Blade. So widely available. I guess the good problem that has emerged is that there are other really exciting alphulars that have popped up on the waiver wire to being New York Mets, right? So Carson Benj, he has let off three games in a row. And over his last 19 games, he is hitting 338 with two homers, 11 runs, 10 RBI, two steals an OPS around 900 hitting the ball really hard during that time. And AJ Ewing, who we've talked a lot about this week, he just hit his first career home run 110.5 exit velocity, 405 feet. He has played three games. He's three for nine. He has a triple, a homer, four runs, three RBI, a steal, more walks in strikeouts. Have a feeling he's going to go for a lot of fad this weekend. Scott, how would you rank the three? It's a question I keep getting. AJ Ewing, Carson Benj and JJ Blade. Well, I actually hadn't noticed that surge for Blade. So now Benjamin for Benj, yes, sorry, obviously had for Blade because we just talked about it. Man, I feel like I'm aging for everybody's eyes here. Okay. You look great. Thank you. I mean, I'm inclined to go Blade number one, honestly. It feels a bit risky because he obviously doesn't have the pedigree of those two being top prospects in the rookie year. But I just think the signs of, okay, this guy is going to be impactful this year are clearer than for the other two. So I would go Blade, Ewing and then Benj. Right now. Yeah, that's what I'm inclined to say. I will say with Ewing, there's a little bit of the Justin Crawford thing here where he's probably not going to hit for power, but it's not because he can't. It's not because he doesn't have the physical ability to show it today. Yeah, I mean, it was 11 mile per hour home run, 400 plus feet. Fun stat there for AJ Ewing's home run today. He hit it 110.5 miles per hour with a swing only 6.4 feet in length. That's one foot shorter on average than the average swing. Since that data became available in 2023, the only two hitters who to hit a home run that hard with a swing that short are Cory Seeger and O'Neal Cruz. And now AJ Ewing showing he has that kind of power when he when he's inclined to take. >> I just don't know what he's going to get. >> Tap into it. He said himself, I think it can be a part of my game. I don't think it's going to be my identity. I want to spray the ball, hit a lot of line drives and put myself in position to get on base a lot. But when I catch stuff out front, it can happen for sure. And his data throughout his mind only career backs that up. He's definitely a spray the ball to all fields hitter. And that's why I put up like 370 batting averages down there. I don't think it's going to be a 370 hitter in the majors, but you can be a 300 hitter with great on base skills and tons and tons of speed. And I think there will be more power than the other players we've seen emerged like that in recent years like Xavier Edwards and Chandler Simpson. And Justin Crawford obviously hasn't done much of anything yet. In fact, Crawford hasn't even been running much, has he? >> He's starting too lately. We talked about his younger days. Two homers and three steals over the last like 10 games or something, 12 games? >> Yeah, he's coming around. >> Yeah, he hit a bomb yesterday. 405 feet to dead center of Fenway. >> Yeah, so it's taking a little time, but between Benz and Justin Crawford, and that should be the expectation, right? Is the young guys typically come up and takes them a little bit of time. Maybe it won't take so much time for AJ Ewing who looks really good so far. But yeah, I think I would agree with the ranking that you threw out there. It's got Bladay, Ewing, and then Carson Benz. My player at the night here is Zebby Mathews. Welcome back, great season debut here against the Marlins seven shut out innings with five strikeouts. He only had seven whiffs on 83 pitches here, and his velocity was down quite a bit compared to last year. His fastball was down 1.4 miles per hour. His secondary pitches were just, the curve was down almost five miles per hour, the change of down three. It kind of feels like it was done on purpose and he threw 67% of his pitches for strikes. So I just wonder if maybe not chasing as much velocity allowed him to place his pitches a little bit better here. And of course, the movement profiles with the velocity being down. We're just, there was much more dropped. It was much more break on the pitches here. And so he looked great. What I can't really explain is that he was performing pretty poorly in the minors before he got called up before this. So 472 ERA 151 Whip in seven starts at AAA. But he was a fairly big name pitching prospect coming up at a time when we really need pitching help. So 14% rostered, are you guys interested in Zabby Matthews? Man, it's hard to be based on how things were going at AAA. And the big drop in velocity in this one fastball down 1.4, everything else down 2 plus from when we last saw him in the majors. And the biggest change is the curve ball. It seems like he's going with a way slower curve ball now. It was down like four and a half miles per hour from the version we saw previously. And that actually was consistent with what was going on within a AAA too. The velocities from Zabby Matthews tonight, they were down at AAA too, but not quite as much as we saw in this start. And then the minors 472 ERA 152 Whip, less than a strike out per inning. Even in this start, great, seven shut out innings. But again, velocity was way down, low whiff rate. I'm just not the only reason I have for optimism with Zabby Matthews is, oh, it was recently his last year. This was the guy we were really excited about. But nothing he's done this year with the exception of maybe this start. And again, even that has its warts. Makes me excited about him now. Yeah, seven whiffs. This was a guy who missed a ton of bats last year. So especially with the secondary pitches. And it was just, he got hit really hard when he didn't miss bats. And so, look, it's good. I'm glad to see a good start from him. This is a guy that I've particularly liked a lot over the past couple of years. But I don't see much reason to run out and add Zabby Matthews after this start. Unfortunately, I wish I could say different than that. Like, look, if you, if you added Braxton Garrett, who had an awful start in his first one, OK, I could see dropping him for Zabby Matthews. But I'm not sure Zabby Matthews is going to stick in a rotation for very long. I think he probably will. We were talking about this beforehand, just with the injury to make Abel and them wanting to space out kind of pre-lip. And especially after a start like this, he'll probably stick around. I mostly agree. I think it's just a deep league name for now. Chris and I, we spoke about some shallower names yesterday. Bryce Miller, Ryan Nelson, who pitched well, did some different things. I think we're more intrigued by it by names like that. And again, we need help, right? Like Max Fried goes down with injury. And there's been Robbie Snelling, who we were excited about last week. So an endless amount of injuries. But I think Zabby Matthews just a deep league name for now. And speaking of deep league names, very deep league names. Scott, you're player tonight. Yeah, this is a deep one, but it's a fun one. I think gauge workmen. You never heard of gauge workmen? Well, that's understandable. He wasn't a highly regarded prospect and he's 26 years old. But he played for the Tigers for the second time. Or actually, no, this was his fourth appearance, not his second appearance. I think maybe his second start. In any case, he hasn't played much. And started second base, went two for four with a double and a home run. And looking at the data from the past in the minors, and especially at AAA this year, this guy gauge workmen absolutely scalds the ball. 93.9 mile per hour, average ex of velocity at AAA, 115 max ex of velocity at AAA. And again, previous years, they were very good too. He was slashing 358, 413, 590 down there. And in addition to the very hard contact, he angles the ball optimally off the bat. A lot of fly balls, especially to his pole side. It's both a swing that's geared for power and true power behind it. And on top of that, gauge workmen can play like everywhere. He started at second base, but he has experience of shortstop. He has experience all over. The Tigers have a lot of injured infielders. They have a lot of infielders who just haven't been playing well. So there's opportunity here for gauge workmen. If he can deliver like he was at AAA. So why hadn't we heard of him? Well, prior to this year, he ran strikeout rates up or 30% pretty consistently. But this year, it was only 23%. Prior to his call, much more manageable. Why did it change? I don't know. I wasn't able to find many people commenting on gauge workmen, believe it or not. But if there is something behind that strikeout increase, seeing everything else going on with workmen and recognizing the versatility and the opportunity before him here, I think it could matter. I don't think there's much reason to add him yet outside of AL only leagues. But I want to get his name out there. Gage workmen, I find him to be very interesting. Yeah, I am definitely intrigued as well. He's 1% rostered, third base eligible. He started at second base here on Thursday. So could gain different position, eligible. And the home run he hit off of was off of Noam McLean. I mean, that's a pretty damn good pitcher. So impressive, very small samples so far. But AL only, I think even in 15 team road leagues, if you want to just take a stab on a bench spot, I don't think that's crazy. So just an interesting name there, gauge workmen. Thank you to StitchFix for sponsoring today's players of the night StitchFix takes the hassle out of clothes shopping. Just take a quick style quiz, share your size, your vibe, and your budget. And you'll be matched with a real human stylist who will send you a fix box with clothes that fit and makes sense for your life. Get started today at stitchfix.com/baseball for $20 off your first order, that stitchfix.com/baseball. And before we hit our break, just a reminder that if you are looking for Scott's week, what are we going up on, Scott? Week 89. Week 9. Oh my goodness. Week 9. Only 18 weeks left. Week 9 sleepers, two star pitchers. You can find all of Scott's work on the website, cbsports.com/fanice/baseball. You can find it on the CBS fantasy app as well. Or you can catch the FBT Express episode that is coming out Saturday morning. And that will be both in your podcast feed and on YouTube. So be on the lookout for that. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in, fantasy baseball. Today let's hit the news and notes. And our timing has been spot on this week, right? Earlier in the week, Scott and I were talking about Ryan whether it's like, man, is he going to have a spot in the rotation? Boom, Max Fried gets hurt. Yesterday, Chris, you and I were talking about Cal Raleigh. I'm like, I don't think he's healthy, man. He doesn't look right. And he's placed on the aisle with a right oblique strain. It is the first time he's gone on the aisle in his career, probably explains why he's been so awful. the season. Mitch Garver should see more starts in the meantime. So for those in very deep two catcher leagues, there's a name for you. Mitch Garver. He also homered on Thursday. Byron Bucks then out of the lineup on Thursday due to a right hip flexor soreness someone who's dealt with a lot of injuries. So I'm going to have to pay attention to that. If you play over on the NFBC where you could change your lineup for Friday through Sunday, just check to see if Byron Bucksson is in the lineup on Friday. I saw a lot of like, oh, here we go again. And like, can we let the guy miss more than one day before we like bury him again? I get that we're like a little shell shocked from it. But it's he can get a day off. It's fine. You don't have to have to react like that to everything, you know? Yeah. I mean, if he goes on the IL, it's going to feel worse. Yeah. That's, but he missed one game. Pretty healthy last year. So it's quite so raw. Yeah. He played 130 games last year. And he looked pretty healthy. He proved that he can miss 30 games and still be an amazing fantasy asset. So like, even if he goes homeers over the last 365 days, even if he goes on the IL for like a minimum stay, it's not like the end of, you know, the sky isn't falling for Byron Bucksson if that happens. So I mean, look, maybe I don't know. I just, I saw a lot of people that maybe fall. I just like I look at like I saw I was talking to someone I was texting with someone earlier and I was like, Oh, Chase Dahlender. At least he's not hurt. And then like literally the next pitch, he left the game with an injury. And so it's like, Oh, maybe I'm a jinx. I don't know. I don't know if this has happened to you guys where you have just timed up a player. So actually, we were talking about this with Bailey Overscott earlier in the week. And Chase Dolander, the two starts that I've used him for this year in my and only league have been the one where he out rocked against the braves in course field and this one, those have been the only two starts. So I haven't all the great starts that Dolander has delivered. I have got none of that. It is. I think that's true for a lot of people though. God shed his head. It took it took all for Rocky's picture. It takes a long time to buy in. Right. I've said before that in their entire 30 plus year history, they've only had one fantasy standout at pitcher that it may be more like two. I was overlooking a Kyle Freeland season back in back in 2018 where he won 17 games with the 285 year. I finished fourth and say young voting that year. Part of the reason I overlooked it is because as a fantasy analyst at that time, it was like Kyle Freeland can't keep doing this. Like just missing it all year and he just managed to keep doing it. Who ball doha menas was more like, yeah, he's actually good enough that this. So is two, but the point, even if you want to like get me on a technicality there, I'd like a couple of good seasons who or he De La Rosa had a couple of good. Yeah. I mean fantasy standout. I'm not saying no. Rocky's picture has ever been usable, but true standout and fantasy. Like we were hoping Dolander would be and maybe he still could be, but right now it seems like he's hurt. Yeah. So he did leave this start in the second inning due to right arm tightness. His velocity was down and clearly he was not effective. Carlos Mendoza said the MRI on Francisco Lendor's calf showed healing, but there remains no timetable for his return. Logan Webb is on track to return after a minimum stay on the IEL. So sounds like probably sometime next week. I would imagine for Logan Webb Tyler Glass now, who's on the IEL with back spasms has been playing catch the last few days. Dave Roberts said glass now might not need a rehab assignment before rejoining the Dodgers Hunter Green is scheduled to throw a bullpen on May 26th. That will be his first time throwing off a mound since he underwent surgery in mid March. So just the name to remember as he starts to creep closer to returning that, you know, leagues where he was dropped like NFBC leagues were limited IEL spots like you might want to read ad Hunter Green at some point and you know, just continue to stash him. Pat Murphy said a decision on whether to put Christian yellow tone aisle will likely be made Friday. He's missed two straight with a back injury and he just returned from a groin injury earlier this week. So he's dealt with a bunch of back stuff over the years. Doesn't sound great there for Christian Yelch. Surgery to correct that prior to last year though we were done with the back stuff. It seemed like we were based on the way he performed. Apparently not the back is back. It's back. Jeremy. Jeremy Paine is aiming to resume his rehab assignment on Friday and Casey Meis could return from the IEL Saturday against the blue jays. He's been on the IEL with a right at Doctor strain. So let's talk about some other waiver wire hitters. We spoke about blood day and Carson Benj, AJ Ewing. I did just have one of their follow up on. Age work, man. Yeah, we did talk about him as well. Does that sounds like like like George Jetsons like not his boss because that was obviously a spaceley sprocket. But gauge workman could be like the middle manager. No, nobody. I thought it was Mr. Spacely. I thought his last name was Spacely. Oh, it was the company with Spacely sprockets. Maybe that it. Yeah, maybe. How do you guys remember this stuff? I just How could you forget? I just I mean, Cogs Cogsley. I don't remember the other guy. Cosmo G Spacely. Same first name as Kramer. Yeah, yeah, can't be a coincidence. And cousins of gauge workman apparently. AJ Ewing, I just did want to follow up on him. How much fab do you think he goes for this weekend? Because last week we saw Ryan Walshmit get like 15 to 20% of bids. I think bids start with a two for AJ Ewing this weekend. That could. Yeah. I don't know if I'll be there on on $200 bids or 20% bids, whatever it ends up being, but I could definitely see it. The thing is there aren't a lot of people who left who have, you know, $600 of fab or $800 fab left. Like I'm going to say so much money has already been spent at some point. Like these, these prices are going to have to come down just due to the lack of dollars in circulation. Yeah. Deflation. So I mean, I think it's at least close to what Walshmit went for last week. So probably 15 to 20%. If you, if you need now feel there, you're going to have to be pretty aggressive on AJ Ewing this weekend. So which of these two zombies do you like better? They're both back from the dead. Mark Vientos and Zach Gelloff. Vientos. Four hard hits in this game, including his sixth home run. He has started 11 straight and over his last 15 games. He has four homers, 12 RBI, an 823 OPS. And he's hitting the ball really, really hard during that time. 20% barrel rate during that stretch. And Zach Gelloff, he has started 10 straight. He just hit his fifth home run. He's at 270. He's got two steals as well. The expected stats, not so great, but he's hitting the ball hard. And he has a career high pulled air rate and you know, he's getting a chance to play all over the diamond. So do you guys have interest in either Mark Vientos or Zach Gelloff? I think I'm more interested in Gelloff than Vientos personally, just because I think the skill set is not quite so dependent on hitting for power. It's kind of even the one year Mark Vientos was good. He was basically that and he had like 29 homers and was a great season. But Gelloff will steal some bases. He's got his strikeout rate in a big way. So I'm a little more interested in Gelloff. I can't say I'm particularly interested in either, but it also helps that Gelloff is second third and outfield eligible. I think it's going to be easier to find a spot in your lineup than just first or third for Vientos. Yeah, I think back to remember Zach Gelloff had that awesome rookie season. And the two knocks on him then, the two reasons why when it worked out is, oh, he strikes out too much and oh, how's he hitting for this much power when his pull air rate isn't very good? I don't know though, I described it with or that people were using pull air rate specifically back then, but you know, pulled fly balls. Both of those are way better right now. I think the sample is so small that I would just be inclined to say, yeah, it's just early noise and Zach Gelloff is probably still Zach Gelloff, especially you dig a little deeper zone contact rate still terrible, which would suggest that strike out rate is going to go up. But you know, there's a little more to dream on here. I think than Vientos like Chris is saying. Yeah, I just think it's a power play with Vientos. If you need a corner in fielder with some pop and he's getting a chance to play, it's like they just they don't really have too many other options there right now. So and he's he's making good on it. So two names there. Vientos and Zach Gelloff both are multi position eligible. Look rally. He is mashing, but I just feel like he is hard to utilize for fantasy in a daily lineup league. I think it could probably work pretty well there. He had his 10th home run and in 10 May games, he's hitting 346 with five homers, 14 RBI, a 1356 OPS. He's still striking out a ton. But if you just look at the schedule next week, there's three lefties on the schedule. So from a weekly lineup perspective, you you can't use He's only going to play three times. And this is a pretty typical Luke Rayleigh hot streak. I just looked it up. He had multiple stretches in 2024 where he had 10 homers in 39 games. He had a stretch, I think, in 2022 with the same thing. He is a strict platoon bat who has power and he'll get hot. And when there's weeks with a bunch of riding on the schedule, he can be useful. But not someone who has any long term appeal because of the limitations in this game. Hello, Hey, Luke Raykey, you know, that's fun. It seems like people recognize that since he's only 37% rostered. Yeah. But I mean, shout out to you, Sky. You were all over that with him as one of your sleeper hitters for this week, the seven ridys on the schedule. So I hope people. Aaronors have the best matchups and a bunch of ridys. So yeah, Rayleigh made sense. Though I think I also had, did I have Ken's zone on there too? They're kind of in the same bow. It like, yeah, but Ken's own hit a grand slam on Monday. So there you go. Yeah, that's something to very deeply named. So watch we spoke about one of them gauge workman. The other one is Austin Martin, two for four with three RBI and his seventh steal. He has started against every lefty this season, but only 12 of 28 righties. But that playing time is trending up. They sent Matt Walner down to the minors and he's hitting 333. He's hitting well against both lefties and righties this year. I don't think there's really any pop at all, but a little bit of batting average and speed help in like a deeper league. I'm mildly intrigued by Austin Martin. It seems like the decision to send Matt Walner down was because of how good Davis Martin has been playing and they want to give him more opportunity to do. Austin Martin, Austin Martin. So Davis Martin has been playing well too. I don't know that it would have much to do with Matt Walner. Yes, Austin Martin. Excuse me. How many times has he faced Matt Walner? Maybe has a lot to do with Matt Walner. Could be. Could be. What if they face each other? Austin Martin is a former top prospect. He was a former like top five overall pick. It was 2020 bad draft year. I think it's going to go down as one of the bad drafts in MLB history for obvious reasons. But he's hitting over 300 since the start of last season. Underlying stats don't quite back it up, but he makes a lot of contact. The underlying stats are more like 280. And honestly, if he's a 280 hitter with, I mean, it's like a 40 steel pace since the start of last season, I don't think that's realistic, but 280 hitter with 25 steals, that's useful. You know, that's a, that's Ernie Clement, but with a little more optimization in terms of what you're getting out of him. So I think on the more I'm just giving him, I think 25. He's got 18 and 88 games this start of last season, just over 300 played appearances. I feel like Austin Martin is doing what Luke Keishel was supposed to be doing. Sure. Yeah. Leo today. Yeah. And I don't know if it'll continue either. The like, for him to be viable in all, but deep points leagues, he needs to steal bases at close to the clipy is now. And that's the, that's the most questionable part, I think. But I mean, a guy who gets on base like he does. I mean, even last year, the little bitty was up. It was 374. Mm-hmm. That's a, that's a very useful real life player, even if it's less useful on fantasy. I think in some of those deeper five outfielder leagues, Austin Martin, definitely on your radar this weekend. And the twins as a team, they are sixth in baseball and stolen bases. So they're letting their guys run. They're being aggressive. Luke Keishel, while he has been a disappointment, he does have 10 steals on the year. So they are letting those guys run whenever they get on base this season. Let's slide over to the waiver wire pictures and. Colour me intrigued with Ben Brown, who we, we all said yesterday, we wanted to see how this start would go against the Atlanta Braves and. Went really well. Four shout out innings, one hit, one walks seven strikeouts had nine whiffs on 65 pitches, all nine of those came on his curve ball. He's now made two starts. It's eight shout out innings, one hit, two strike, 10 strikeouts to two walks. You know, he's, he's mixed in a change up a little bit more, sinker this season as well. 31% roster, he's a spark. It's got, I think in, I don't know, 12 team Roto leagues or even like points leagues as a spark, I wouldn't mind. Yeah. Picking up Ben Brown and seeing where this goes. Yeah, I was saying, I think earlier this week, maybe that. Yeah, I think Ben Brown needs to be picked up everywhere given given the current state of pitching. And that there is so little to be optimistic about all the waiver wire, even in like 12 team leagues. I'm not saying Ben Brown is this perfect specimen that can possibly go wrong, but there is, there's a lot to like here, the curve ball is excellent. The, the, you all right, estimators by and large love him, even though his strikeout rate is down this year, his swinging strike rate is unimpressive. And you look what it was, previous years, you got a lot of strikeouts. So like, if you kind of like Frankenstein, the different Ben Browns together, like you, you could see a really high ceiling there, but even, even with what he's doing this year, just by getting, by being a hardthroer who gets a lot of weekly hit ground balls and at least keeps the strikeout rate respectable. There's, there's room here for him to become a, a regular part of your, your pitching staff in fantasy. And I think his last two for innings outings, obviously still getting stretched out, even though there are both foreinnings, he upped the pitch count by like 20 in this one. So trending the right direction. And I think if he does that, again, no guarantees, but Ben Brown is interesting enough that you, you'd like to see what it looks like once you've got five. Also, was noting that six very lefty heavy line up today, 54 of the 65 pitches he threw were two lefties. And that's the biggest question mark for me with Ben Brown is, can the knuckle curve or seemer approach work against left DC through 15% change up today? That's more than we usually see from him. That would be the biggest thing because he's a guy who for his career, it's like a 635, 643, op s against righty 762 against lefties. So that's the one big question, the other big question, third time through the order, 988 OPS and very small samples. But it's just, yeah, so how many times have he done that? Yeah, it's only 85 played appearances, but I think that also like he did spend parts of two seasons as a starter and it went really poorly. One of them was fine. The other one was very poorly and it's just because it's a really, really limited arsenal. So I, I'm skeptical, but I don't disagree that based on what he's shown, including in the bullpen, he's worth an ad for sure. Would you guys take Ben Brown over Ryan Nelson? I know. But you're talking to the, the president of the Ryan Nelson fan club here. Well, you might have to move on over because Chris sounded pretty excited last night. Oh my gosh. I like the changes we're seeing because they let this, Scott, I said this yesterday, you've been saying it's 60% for seamers. Yes, but he's changing it up now. I don't know that I like it. I like it. I like it. I think he's sinkered a righty. I am Andrew Lincoln with the cue card saying to me, you are perfect to Ryan Nelson. You don't need to change a thing, sir. It's been great the last year and a half as it is. But he looked good yesterday, even with less than 60%. But the 60% rule has become, because even the start prior to that, it was 59%. I think it's 70% fast balls of any kind. Of any kind. So four-seam cutter sinker. Yeah. Would you guys take Ben Brown or Bryce Miller? Bryce Miller. Oh, Scott doesn't like Bryce Miller though. I don't. Chris is typically liked Bryce Miller more than I have. I don't. Like the extra velocity from Bryce Miller seems like it could be a good thing. I just, I'm not, I wanted to see more evidence that it actually is a good thing yesterday. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I guess I'll go Bryce Miller over Ben. He was a top 10 pitcher in 2024. I know. But now 2024 was different time. Ben Brown or Bailey Ober? Ben Brown. Agree. And that's, that's me being much more skeptical about Ben Brown than I think either you are. And Ben Brown or Debbie Matthews. Ben Brown. Ben Brown. Not sure what to make of this one. Michael McGreevy, another quality start. This one at the Athletics six innings one run. Only three strikeouts. Only one walk. Only needed 74 pitches to get through six innings. But he has thrown four quality starts in a row during that span, a point seven five ERA, a point 83 whip, 21 strikeouts to six walks. And he he gets the pirates at home next week. So not a, not a terrible matchup. Chris is Michael McGreevy more, anything more than a streamer. Are you, are you buying this at all? You know, I'm not. No, nobody needs to ask me. And like, I always have to say Frank Chris isn't buying it. It's just all I have to do is point to what happened to Foster Griffin today. And like Michael McGreevy has a two 10 ERA for the season. He entered this start with an XERA over five. Like, it's great that it's working out. And I know like people are going to be like, "Oh, you guys only care about strikeouts." And it's like, "Well, yes, "strikeouts are the best way to get out." And they are also very valuable for fantasy in their own right. So that is why we care about strikeouts. But like, these ERA estimators exist for a reason. They're really good at estimating ERA in the future. Much, much better than ERA. Like, ERA has zero predictive value. I hate to tell you folks, ERA does not matter when you're projecting forward. And so you tell me you guys got a 210 ERA and a 5XERA? I'm going to say that that guy's bad. And he might have more good starts. He will definitely have more good starts in the future. Might be next week. I'm still going to tell you, I don't believe I'm Michael McGreevy. It's just not real. To put that gap into his perspective, so that's a three run gap between the expected ERA and the actual ERA with the expected ERA being much worse by three runs. Only two pitchers had a gap of even two last year. And McGreevy right now is three. And his XERA might actually go up because he allowed 11 hard hits in this game, with a 95.6 average exit velocity, and just a 32% ground ball rate. So a lot of those-- - Good defense. - A lot of those are a long draw. It is good defense. A lot of those were line drives and fly balls in Sacramento. And it was-- - It was. - It seems a little lucky here. - Was the robbed home run on off Michael McGreevy? Did you guys see this? - I didn't see it. - The laziest, least exciting robbed home run of all time. You know, in right field and Sacramento, they've got like a four foot fence out there. Jordan Walker was just standing next to the fence. - You robbed it. - Just like didn't jump, just barely reached over. And it was like even the announcers were like, "Oh, he caught it." - Well, I mean, it was not going to have that. - I just didn't even have a lot to do. - And also, I have said he's like seven feet tall. - Yeah, no, he's gigantic. Yeah. All right, I'm watching it now. Wow, that fence is tiny. Oh my gosh. - It looks especially small. - Oh my gosh. - That was-- - Was that a goal? - Was that a goal? - That was so anticlimactic. Yeah, it was-- it wasn't agreeable yet. - Yeah, it would have been like a two or three run home run. Like a two run home run. - Yeah, it's-- - I'm sorry. - Like whatever. I'm whatever. We get a lot of stuff wrong, but in the long run, the five XERA, two ERA guy, that guy's going to hurt you a lot more than he helps you. And look, if you've been starting him, congratulations. You should get off the ride before it blows up, because it's going to. - Cache and your gains. - You got to know when to hold him. When to fold him, just as equally important. - Two other quick ones here. Braxton Garrett, we were mildly excited about him getting called up. It did not go as planned. He only lasted four outs in this one. Five runs, five walks. He just could not throw strikes at all. Pretty sure we just do nothing with this ride. It's a kind of wait and see. Let's see how his next couple starts go. - Yeah, but I'm not optimistic, I gotta say. And I didn't really notice until I was following up on this start with all the walks, five walks in and in and in and third. So he was pitching really well at Triple A. Mostly because he had allowed 10 hits in 31 and the third innings. Which itself, I guess, says something, but I think it says less than the fact that he was walking 4.3 per nine down. - And his last last three starts, I think was 10 walks in 12 innings or 16 innings or something. So he did go nine days without pitching for what it's worth. That's, you know, it could have just been rusty, but he looked really bad. So I still think Braxton Garrett can be useful, but he looked bad enough that there's no reason to go at him. And I think if you, if you did add him and any other guys, we're talking about our available Ben Brown, even Seppie Matthews, I'd be willing to drop it. Not that I have any excitement for Seppie Matthews. - Right. I have so little confidence in Seppie Matthews right now that that's kind of a, but getting bit like the times we've seen Braxton Garrett be effective in the majors, his control has been good. And when he hasn't been, his control has been bad. And right now, even in the minors, it's, it's, it's, it's looked bad. So I'm not saying it can't get better, but I can only judge what I'm seeing now and doesn't look good. - Last question is for Foster Griffin had a big regression start. He allowed nine earned runs over four and a third innings. He's 79% rostered. Looks like he lines up for two starts against the Metz and at the Braves next week. Would you guys hold on to Foster Griffin for that two-star week or hit the road, Jack? I still kind of like him. I agree with you. - I know, I know it, there was an, a feeling of inevitability with this start, which Chris referred to. And I, I think that's fair, but you're not everyone on your fantasy pitching staff. I mean, depending on the shallowness of the league, how well you drafted, how much injury luck you've had, et cetera, but for most people, not everyone in your fantasy pitching staff can be a data darling that you have the utmost faith in. I think the fact that Foster Griffin had this start and still came away with a 353 ERA and a 114 whip, a guy who gives up very weak contact is now up to 8.7 Kper-9. Like, there's a lot, I made the Andrew Abbott comparison to, to Griffin last time. And I still think they're, I still think it's pretty comparable. I don't like that that second start next time is against the braves. Did he face the braves earlier? That would be worth looking up, see how he did, which is to say he's going to do the same thing, but I still like to know. - Oh, let's see. - He is, so Foster Griffin was really high among my sleeper pitches for next week until I saw this start. He's still among them, but he's much lower on the list now. - He did face the braves. It was six innings, five hits, three runs, three strike outs, one walk, so a quality start, not an impressive one, but a quality start. - Yeah, I'm inclined to hold as well. I would agree there on Foster Griffin. Let's take our final break when we return. I've got some buyer cells and then we'll wrap things up here on fantasy baseball today. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's do a little buy or sell chase burns dominated once again against the national six shutout innings with seven strike outs, 18 whiffs on 95 pitches. He's got the ERA down to 187. He's got a one whip. It's over a strikeout for inning. Two earner runs are fewer in eight of nine starts. He's been as advertised maybe and then some Chris, buy or sell, the reds will limit chase burns innings at some point this season. - I will buy in the strictest sense of the words you used because I do think there will be some points where they go to a six man rotation or they skip him. I do not think there is any risk of, hey, we got a we got a shut chase burns down because one, it is super I think he's averaging six innings per start right now, which is pretty shocking. For a guy who was supposed to have some efficiency issues, but I do think it's worth pointing out. He only got to 99 and 30 innings this season. He did get to 100 his last year in college. So it's not like this is unprecedented territory where he was held back last year. He got hurt and that may happen again, but I think he's going to go 150, maybe 160 this season and then they'll have to make some decisions. But I want to say this is a, you know, obviously this is far enough back that it's certainly a different manager and I can't remember if Nick Kroll was the pobo or GM for them, but when Hunter Green made his MLB debut, he had only thrown 106 innings the prior season and they weren't slowing him down. I think he got hurt. So yeah, there will be some point where Hunter Green gets skipped or they go to six man rotation. I don't think it's, chase burns, chase burns, but I don't think it's a shutdown or anything of the sort. Let's talk about Connor Griffin who has been moved up in the lineup. He's been betting second against lefties and now fifth against righties. He went two for four with his 10th stolen base. Last 19 games. He's hitting 324 three homers, six deals and OPS over 900 expected stats great during that time period. Scott buyer sell. Connor Griffin better than JJ Weatherholt and Kevin McGonagall from this point forward. That's much harder to say in points leagues. I think buy and sell is the correct answer. Yeah. I have him ranked the lowest of the three in points leagues. I haven't ranked in between in road leagues. I have Weatherholt one. So I guess I'm going to sell it, but it's it's not at all a crazy thought. I would rather have Weatherholt the way their seasons have gone so far. I'll see you get the premium eligibility with Weatherholt having second base. Yeah. But Griffin obviously is trending right direction. I think he has more upside overall. I'm just I'm not as confident he's a finished product yet. Yeah. They are I will say they are all within my top 100 rest of season for the trade values chart in Roto in points. I think Griffin's closer to like 125 130. There's a lot more pictures higher up there. So yeah. I and look in points leagues. I get it. Weatherholt and McGonagall like the plate discipline they get on base so much they just walk a lot more. So that makes sense in Roto man. It just it feels to me like Connor Griffin is just a he's about to go off. Like he is, he's been good the past 19 games, but I think he's about to like, I think it's about to happen for Conner Griffin here. Let's talk about Chris Boobitch, who was bad once again at the White Sox, four innings, five runs, three walks to four strikeouts. He now has three or more walks in seven of nine starts. His swinging strike rate is down from 13% to 11%. He is 80% started still, so and mostly everyone's lineups. He gets the red stocks at home next week. Chris Byers sell, Chris Boobitch is a bench until further notice. - Bench, but not a drop is what I would say. The biggest thing is just the command hasn't been good, but the stuff basically looks like it has the last couple of seasons when he's been good, when he's been on the mound. So I still think he has that potential. It's just a question of, he has really struggled to throw strikes for most of the season. So once he figures that out, I think he'll be good. It's honestly he hasn't been at disaster, even with the poor control overall. - He said three awesome starts. So I'd be reluctant to flatly call Chris Boobitch a bench. I think it's okay to bench him if he's not obviously one of your best options, or if the matchups pour whatever. - Good Boston. - Who are matchups right now? - They're good against lefties actually. - Yeah, they're good against lefties this season. But Boobitch has also been better at home this year. So I would still lean bench. I, you should never watch your pitchers and fantasy pitch, man. I was watching him earlier and it was just so frustrating, man. - He could watch this season. - He couldn't throw strikes and then he got crushed by Randall Gritchick, who had all four runs against him. It was just, it was so annoying. - Well, that is the one reason Randall Gritchick is so annoying. - Yeah, he crushed his lefties. I get it, but yeah. Boobitch has been, he's been a frustrating one this year. So I share that frustration with others. Jordan Walker continued his breakout two for five with his 12th home run at two RBI and he's still hitting 294. Big counting stats. He's got seven steals as well. The quality of contact, the expected stats are all great. He entered Thursday as the third best alfiler in Roto averaging 3.8 fantasy points per game. It's got by or sell. Jordan Walker, tap 24 alfiler rest of season. - I buy that. I moved him. I made a lot of moves with guys I was holding back on in when I updated the rankings just yesterday. Most time I spent updating the rankings all year, which means probably like eight hours. - Just a whole full work day on the ranking. - It's a whole day thing. - Yeah. - It's a lot. Yeah, I moved him out to 16. Jordan Walker, right? His May has been better than his April. So there hasn't been any fall off here. The expected stats still look great. I'm always nervous about guys who strike out a lot and I think his rates was around 28% right now. - Yeah. - Well, as hard as he, it's the ball, like 28% I think is manageable for him. - Yeah, no, it is. It just makes me nervous like on a foundational level. I feel like there's naturally more volatility with those guys. - And his, look, his zone contact rate is lower than it was last year. His whiff rate is basically what it was last year. He still hit the ball really hard last year too. So there are still, it's not hard to see how that this goes wrong, but it will say what I like is, there actually, you know, Scott, you said he hasn't slowed down. There was that stretch from about the 20th through the 30th of April, maybe a little earlier where he looked really bad. And the fact that he's gotten a lot of stretch. - Yeah, the fact that he's gotten hot again is, I think a really impressive sign. Yeah, he went from the 13th through the 30th, 13th through the 29th without homering. He was like double to strike out to every single game basically. The fact that he went through that and got hot again, that's what I love to see when we're talking about a breakout. I wanna see, when we're talking about a full season, we wanna see them run through the finish line, which we didn't see from Kyle Stowers last year, 'cause he got hurt and, you know, I know what's gonna happen there, doesn't look good. And then I wanna see the adjustment to the adjustments. And that's what we're seeing from Jordan Walker, where the underlying numbers got really bad during that stretch. Last 50 played appearances, his expected woe was above 400 again. So I do think there are lots of things. I've moved him up to 24. And I'm slower than you guys on that. So I'm buying this one, at least in, in Roto, in points I have a harder time getting in the top 24. Part of the reason I went as high as 16 is like, yeah, I can point to the flaws for Jordan Walker. 17 is be a grow Armstrong. Concernally point to flaws there. 19 is Michael Harris, same thing, Riley Green, same thing, Andy Pahas, same thing, George Springer, Roman Anthony's not even healthy now. Brent Rookers looked awful. It's not like there are a lot of outfielders vying to be in the top 20 right now. Absolutely. So yeah, give me Walker. I'm not saying so, not all of those guys. Obviously Pahas has been great. Harris has been great. But like there are clear warts there like they are for Walker. And I think Walker has the most upside of the three. All right, let's talk about Kyle Harrison, who pitched well against the Padre is five shutout innings with seven strikeouts, zero walks. He had 17 lifts on 99 pitches. 13 of those on the fastball. Chris, buy or sell Kyle Harrison. That's it. Do you buy it or do you sell it? Because I like the fastball looks improved, but I just don't know that there's much else besides the fastball. I think everything else is decent. Like the slurve has a 30% with rate and it doesn't get crushed. The kick change such as it is has I think the with rate right around 28, 30%. That's 24%. OK, that's not as good, but it's not getting hit hard. Like I don't see a ton of reason to be super skeptical of this. I think this stuff is really good. He's not a two ERA pitcher. Like he looks right now. He's not a 209 ERA pitcher. But I like the X ERA is 352. If I get a 352 ERA the rest of the way from Kyle Harrison, I'm thrilled. And I think that's reasonable. So yeah, I'm buying Kyle Harrison as a at least must roster pitcher. And I can't imagine sitting him with how good he's looked to defend. And I think it's worth thinking about this. Sorry. Fastball is-- so two years ago, 2024, fastball had like 15 inches of induced vertical break. And but it was like 92. Last year he gets the velocity up, but it's still more arm side run than ride. It was 12 and a half inches of induced vertical. But don't we prefer 12 to 15 isn't 15 ordinary and 12? Isn't normally-- It is case. It's not just about the induced vertical break. It's about-- he is not a cut ride, fastball. He's not a guy who just gets behind the ball and gets either no horizontal movement or slight glove side movement. He gets a lot of both-- he gets a lot of run on his fastball. It's like 12 and a half, 13 inches of arm side movement away. And he gets now 15 inches. So he's getting two plane movement on the four-seamer at 95. So I think that's the big thing. It's just it's a really unusual fastball. He's also-- Sorry, I thought you were talking about this as a result. I thought-- I also noticed he's raised his arm angle this year, again, into a more ordinary range, which normally we would not prefer. But there are some changes there that don't show up in velocity or even pitch selection. The normal things you look at to say, OK, this is why the guy's improved. And so I'm not totally confident in the improvement, but it's been resilient so far. And I'm looking at Pitchellist.com. They have these player profile pages that you could look at. And Kyle Harrison's vertical approach angle is in the 96th percentile for his fastball. So I think that's a big key, kind of like in a Joe Ryan way, but I guess from the left hand side, just the way-- It's very Joe Ryan asked with his fastball. That it gets decent-ish in due's vertical break, but the horizontal movement is the combination of both of those, the two plane movement, which you don't really talk about for fastballs, is really impressive. He had a 109 stuff plus today on the 4CMER 125 with the Slurve. 31% with rate with the 4CMER this season is like non-Jekomisierowski category is really good. I mean, Jacob Mizierowski, I think, has 4CM with rate is like 46% right now. He's in a different world. By the way, Scott, we talked about it yesterday. I moved Jacob Mizierowski to number six at SP. So I'm throwing caution on the wind with him. Yeah, I have met eight. So you've moved him ahead of Schlittler and-- I've moved him ahead of everybody, except for the five guys who are behind him. I mean, I moved him a lot to-- Up a lot too. Don't get me wrong. I moved him up to 17. But six is-- Come on. I have Brian Wu six. Come on, let's go. I knew I'd present him. I have Brian Wu. He's the Miz, and he's awesome. I think there are-- Dylan's I think Dylan C's is a good comp for Mizraowski right now and I'm not prepared to move Dylan C's up to sixth. Last name here on Byersale is Ian Hap. He's quietly been really good two for three with a walk in his 10th home run contract year Ian Hap that is by or sell career power here and coming here for Ian Hap. That would be 26 or more home runs. He's already at 10 by or sell. I think so. I mean, he's on pace for 37 home runs and he's he's kind of selling out like he's pulled air rate is the highest of his career. He's got a 27% barrel rate. So he is just the strikeout rate is up. But again, I think I think that's kind of like correlated. He's clearly trying to sell out for more power this year and he's still walking a ton. So like the ODP is great. You said his career highest 26. I think 25 but yeah. So he would he would have to hit at a 21 home or pace the rest of the way to have a career high. Yeah. That seems perfectly reasonable. I'm not like buying the near 40 home or pace that Ian Haps on. I'm agree. I'm buying him mostly being himself and banking what he's already done. That seems that seems fine. Yeah. I wouldn't be totally surprised if he got to 30 home runs. But yeah, that would be, you know, protecting out a little bit further there. I'm going to sell it just because. Evan flow for a guy with a very stable track record. I understand some of the approach stuff looks different. Frank, but I think in the long run, even that'll end up normalizing. All right. Some leftovers here. Ryan O'Hern has been really good for the pirates. Three for four with his seventh home run. Counting stats are great. He's hitting 299 with an 849 OPS. Jordan Alvarez, three for three with his 14th home run. I love to see it because he was slowing down a little bit in May before this one turns out. He's human after all Kyle sorber extended his home run lead. He went one for five with his 18th home. He's on pace for 66 home runs. And that is after hitting 56 last year. So boom, power. Amazing. Anything to add on. Oh, I will also sell Kyle Schorber hitting a career high home runs. Not because I have anything against Kyle Schorber. I'm probably the biggest fan of him here, but for the same logic. I did see someone on Twitter say Kyle Schorber is on pace for 67 homeers. Nobody, a major league history has ever done that before. And so many people got mad at them. And I thought that was very funny because literally nobody has hit 67 homeers before. And I just thought that was a good bitch. Tap, tap, tap, whoever did that. This is rage bait. Good. Good stuff. There you go. There you go. I think that's actually kind of a good sign for. I mean, some of his pitches were down almost two miles per hour. So I do think it's just a good sign for him. I think that's a good sign for him. it. It's this bar. It's a fluff or noter with the crunch of the butter. it is, it is incredible. I can't even bother to experiment anymore because I've already perfected. >> Varsus comps. >> And cheesecake at dairy queen. >> You know, Chris, since I've moved to New Jersey, there's a dairy queen that's right near me and I haven't gone. >> That is crazy because if anytime I am anywhere that there's a dairy queen nearby, I was in Montreal for a bachelor party last summer. There's a dairy queen a mile away. I walked there. >> That is my commitment to the DQ. >> Walking to dairy queen and back, I mean, you're basically burning off the blister. >> Yeah, it's perfect. For Saturday, I would probably say Henderson, Severino, and. >> Pre-Lip, I guess. >> I don't know. Some interesting names, but I don't really love the matchups for them. And then on Sunday, we have Grant Holmes against the Red Sox, Joey Cantillo against the Reds. Peter Lambert against the Rangers, Colin Rea at the White Sox, Billy Ober against the Brewers, Stephen Colock at the Cardinals, Andre Poulante against the Royals, Adrian Howzer at the Athletics, Jeffrey Springs against the Giants, Rokie Sasaki at the Angels. >> This is a significantly less interesting group of pitchers, in my opinion. >> I could find something. >> I thought Saturday was pretty bad. >> Yeah. >> I think Cantillo Ober and Lambert are fine. I might like Springs the most against the Giants by far the worst offense in baseball. It is in Sacramento. >> He's been stitching so poorly lately though. >> No, just the last start. He'd been okay before that. >> Yeah, I don't love anyone. I can talk myself into some of them. And I know some of you playing those leagues with the weekly pitch limits that go off on Sunday, so you probably just want to throw a bunch of these guys, but I don't love any of these guys, I think. >> All right, Cantillo Ober Lambert. I'm locking it in for Sunday. >> We are going to-- >> We are going to right there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye. [MUSIC] >> Paramount Podcasts.