Less coverage, more profit

Banks today, and health care, and our series The Age of Work. From American public media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Rizdal, 13 October is what the calendar says Tuesday, good as always. How long have you been working? Our on-train into the inner workings of this economy today runs through 270 Park Avenue, New York, 1-0-0-1-7. At which address, you will find the less than one year old, $3-ish billion headquarters of JP Morgan Chase and Company, which this morning along with several of its peer wall street banks opened the books on 3-4-Earning season. Banks are not, of course, the economic be all and end all, but how they're performing profit and loss-wise can tell us some things about how things are going. Marketplace of Kristen Schwab gets us going. JP Morgan Chase is the largest bank in the U.S., so when it misses expectations, as it did, everyone sits up a little straighter. Christopher Maranak is a banking analyst at Green Capital. They are a trendsetter, whether we like it or not. Chase has a lot of information about businesses and consumers, and it makes a lot of money off investment fees and company deals, which were volatile in the 3rd quarter. It is certainly just the reality of the business can't go to the moon every quarter. Maranak says, never-ending expectations of growth have soured what has otherwise been a pretty good period for banks. Commercial lending is up because of AI. Consumer credit and debit spending is strong because of steady employment. Chris McGratty is head of U.S. Bank Research at KBW. So as long as that continues, there should be, I would say, a pretty good support to GDP. The forward guidance part of these earnings reports, though, also hinge on what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates. And how companies and consumers respond, says Steven Bigger, he's director of Financial Institutions Research at Argus Research. You know, if you're about to proceed with a project, let's say, as a commercial customer, you might say, look, a quarter point is not going to impact whether or not I take this loan out. The Fed increased rates by a quarter point in September. Markets are expecting another quarter point increase before the end of the year. And Bigger says added together a half point hike can have a real impact on bank lending. The old statement about you can't fight the Fed. It's a statement because in the end, the Fed is going to do with interest rates, but the Fed needs to do. I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace. If it's a nice day, you can walk down Park Avenue. The Grand Central Station jump on the four or the five train. You'll be at the New York Stock Exchange inside half an hour. Had you done that today, you would have find traders who were a little mopey. To be honest, we will have the details when we do the numbers. We're going back to India now for our series, The Age of Work. About 65% of the Indian population is what's called prime working age. That's 25 to 54. And unlike in the United States and a lot of developed economies where work forces are aging, India's prime age population is going to hit nearly 70% in just a few years. So by way of getting going, I want to start with two pieces of audio. Interviews that we did in Mumbai on the same day, 12 miles apart. I need that drive, I need that purpose. And in some ways, we've reinvented ourselves. I want actually big opportunities. So that's why I'm learning right now here. So I'll be better. Those are similar sentiments, right? But there are places in this fastest growing major economy in the world could not be more different. One person works at a visual effects studio that literally brings imagination to life, making the invisible visible. The other is a 30 year old night school student who is trying to become more visible in this economy. We are starting our day at that visual effects studio, D-Nag, it's called. It's not a household name, but it has one eight Oscars. It did the effects for the Odyssey. It's currently working on Dune 3, as well as another big blockbuster we're going to get to in a minute. Saw the trailer for this movie. That's Neil Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, as you know, and also my partner for this series. We're in a part of Mumbai known as Film City. You've heard of Bollywood? This is where the magic happens. It's a very aesthetic office, it's beautiful. Beautiful and so new that some of the statues in the reception area are still wrapped in plastic. It's a lot of glass and a lot of dark wood. It looks just like our office is back home. Yeah, that's not true. We went upstairs, passed a lot of rooms with people actively working on movie scenes, and played a quick game with a slideshow of D-Nag's past projects. Let's see if you can name all these movies or TV shows, right? Dune? Masters of the Air, they're really bad, follow up to Band of Brothers. Don't want to add me on that one, it was really, really bad. Hello. Hello. We're just trying to guess which movie is which. Have a good time. Hi. Nice to see you. Nice to meet you. Hi, nice to meet you. You're busy guys, so we're just going to jump right in. Yeah. Merzen Tavaria is the co-founder and president of D-Nag. And the company's origin story is going to sound familiar. We've started with Inag garage with just four of us. Really Inag garage? Yeah, actually. That's quite the Silicon Valley story. Now, they've got upwards of 10,000 employees around the world, more than half of them in India, in that prime age workforce. You guys are a global company. Yes. Offsus in LA and London, and all over the place. What's the competitive advantage that being in India gives you? It's that you're always the underdog trying to do the next best thing. And that's, I think, the biggest competitive edge for sure. I find it so interesting with all the titles that you have under your belt. You still see yourself as an underdog. Oh, for sure. Absolutely. And I would love to stay that way. Because, like I said, I get personally, you know, I need something new. I need that drive. I need that purpose. And, you know, in some ways, again, we've reinvented ourselves if you've heard about it. This is, we are creating our own IP. And we've just going to release our first big feature film. It's based on the Ramayana, if you are aware of that. I actually wasn't. The Ramayana is one of India's oldest epics. And Dean Egg is telling the story in a two-part film. It hopes is going to rival the Odyssey worldwide. Sony's doing the distribution. Hans Zimmer is doing the soundtrack. The budget is $420 million. We are also releasing the movie in multiple languages globally, which is going to be in lip sync using AI to help the process, using our technology to be able to push that. And that means more hiring. In the last six months, I would have added in 1200 plus additional people. There's like 10% issue of your headcap. Yeah. But that's also driven largely by the project, because they're absolutely peaking- I love how you just call it the project. Yeah, it's the project. And those are permanent hires, or do you contract? No. India per se used to be a full-time destination over the years. We've developed a pool, but at the same time also, I hate the idea of, you know, going up and down. But it also helps in just keeping a steady business. Keeping the business steady means constantly developing the workforce. Coming from India as a culture, it's not like we've always had everything. So you're always trying to figure out as you go, because you need to get ahead, you know, like I said, I started in a garage not knowing anything. You're literally learning on the job, figuring out, getting depressed, disappointed, finding solutions. And that's where, if I had to do something, either I could say, I don't have it. So let's just sit back, or you start pushing harder. 12 miles away, and two full hours in Mumbai traffic, I mean that two hours moving inches at a time. I need a shot to settle my nerves. We're seeing a different kind of pushing harder. Remember how we started this story with two pieces of audio? So I'll be better. right now here is school night school where the only classrooms lit and occupied are the three being used grades eight through ten for students of literally all ages we're walking into an eighth grade math class the seven times tables are being done on the chalkboard I'm really sorry to interrupt I'm really sorry um could you tell me your name? Juti Rattor. Juti Rattor is 30 years old by day she does clerical work in a mutual fund by night she's here why are you here in class now? because my father when I am 10 years old my father expired so after that I'm not continuing my school so family problems on all so when I came here my realized study is the very most important for us yeah you've you've worked the whole day today yes and now here you are to you work 10 to 6 and now it's quarter to eight at night and you're in schools studying your multiplication tables and then what happens after you finish this school is it more school and then a better job? yes I want actually big opportunities so that's why I'm learning right now here so I'll be better you will be better you'll be better all right your English is way better than my Maratha or my Hindi there are also kids as young as 14 because during the day they're working wait she did the old seven times table we were standing here that she did your work for you you guys man Juti and the other students are both the current and the future prime age workforce that Indian needs to make the most of its demographic golden age out the hallway we meet up with the principal here Anamesh Singh. Hi I'm Nila. Nice to meet you. Hello. I'm Kai. Nice to see you. Hi Anamesh. Talk to me for a second would you about the place that this school has in the development of the Indian economy right the Indian economy there are 1.4 billion people in this country more working people in almost any other country in the world and here you are trying to train a new generation of workers and citizens tell me about that for a minute as we say like in India we have a lot of people who cannot afford to study so every student should have that basic need of education and this is in English this English medium school yes please why English yeah why English uh new generations new things so everything is in English so obvious English is the future for the working class people you can say what are the other challenges that you see or your students see just to complete their 8 through 12 sometimes what happens parents do not allow them to come in why not if you don't have earning members in your house and if you're literally economically weak so naturally the child would not come into school rather than working in so that is again we have to follow up with parents convince them okay we don't charge any fees please send them speaking of fees we did pay a permit fee to tape here there are it turns out more than 100 of these night schools across Maharashtra state of which Mumbai is the capital the classroom across the hall is a 10th grade class studying Hindi hi hello tell me your name please Ariba Ariba is 18 years old she works with her dad at his car accessory shop came straight here from work our fixture on kit translated for us five years from now what would you like to be doing for work I don't get she wants to become a lawyer great great that's a lot of school it's an educated mom who is educated oh her uncle her brother is already there at bucket why so you're working for your father did you have to stop going to school because you were working for your father her father was not financially doing well so she had to stop studying and help her father with his shop but but your brother was able to go to school oh hey her uncle made him study all financial support was given by her uncle to the brother yeah on a mesh the principle told us the night school has more women and girls this year than usual we've told you that India is the fastest growing major economy in the world but right now the labor force participation rate for women in that economy is still only 32% and also as happens everywhere some of the students in this night school are looking for a little upward mobility so tell me your name okay good what do you do during the day do you work what do you do I am so right to engineer he works at solar system installation and he's a project manager no sir supervisor supervisor supervisor supervisor supervisor yeah okay how old are you 25 okay in two years when you graduate will you be able to get promoted to a new job at the same company or will you look for another job at a different company nice he is saying that obviously he would like to go to a different place with a higher salary is that what you left that obviously you work the full day today right you work eight or ten hours eight hours do you ever get tired no sir I am strong and new generation he's saying I'm strong I'm from the news generation that new generation is what's driving India's growing economy but for this economic momentum to be sustained everybody needs to feel the gains from denegg all the way to the night schools coming up tomorrow then what manufacturing means for this country and specifically for its women coming up where am I I am I am I here sometimes gang life just throws you a curve ball first though let's do the numbers down dust rolls down 180 points today a third of one percent 51 thousand six hundred and seventy the Nasdaq fell 41 points that's about a 10th percent twenty seven thousand two hundred and four s and p five hundred basically flat seven eight zero five India's media and entertainment industry is growing fast Indian research firm Mark Intel says the industry is valued at about thirty three billion dollars now fifty three billion by the year twenty thirty two the top dog and streaming over there is a company called geohot star features live cricket and HBO Disney programming as well premier tier there runs twenty four bucks that's annually Chris was talking about bank earnings JP Morgan chase decline to eight tenths of one percent golfing sacks went the other way up nine tenths percent always a good time for a slice so we mentioned the dominoes sag four point seven percent today that's after reporting results that we're not what investors were looking for such as the way of capitalism you are listening to marketplace this is marketplace i'm carristall here's another one for the health care finance is just weird file united health reported third quarter profits this morning total revenue for the biggest health insurer in this economy went down because fewer people are on medicaid and on company health plans which bad news right for an insurance company yeah but no because united health profits actually went up marketplace Kelly wells has today's health care economy update profit is not about how many people an insurance company serves it's about which people it serves the healthiest people leave the market the sickest people stay in the market becomes a less profitable market howard foreman teaches health and economics at Yale he says medicare advantage plans had a lot of sick people in them so they were losing united health money and they are unafraid of leaving businesses that lose money profits also went up thanks to something that five years ago would have sounded like sci-fi there's what people have called the war of the bots going on now health finance professor emeritus jb silvers at case western reserve says providers are splitting bills changing patient codes to squeeze more out of insurers so now insurers are doing the same thing in reverse this is basically AI working on both sides of the equation finally united health subsidiary optum is a health care provider clinics pharmacy benefits manager and other non-insurance stuff all of that has been really profitable optum accounted for more than half of earnings this corner senior fellow Matthew Feedler at the Brookings Institution says in-house providers save money for United Health as an insurer. You can sidestep that market power on the provider side and maybe pay lower prices for care or be in a position to negotiate lower prices with the providers you don't own. Optum earned $735 million last quarter, nearly 18 times what it made a year ago. I'm Kayleigh Wells for Marketplace. It is a longstanding belief of this program that whatever the headlines might say, the way to know what's going on in this economy is to hear from the people in this economy. The relevant headline for this next piece is at the unemployment rate for people aged 20 to 24 hit 8% even last month. That is almost double the headline figure. What those young people are actually experiencing? Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy. I'm Zoe Gough. I'm 23 years old and I'm currently in St. Louis, Missouri. I graduated undergrad from Northeastern and directly after that, I was given the opportunity to be a campaign manager, then transitioned on to a congressional race also in the Boston area doing fundraising, worked that job until September 1st, 2026, which was election day. Election night. We had all of our volunteers, community supporters, advocates, donors, all in like a neighborhood bar in Jamaica, plain and Boston and it was great. It felt kind of like a celebration of just like all of our hard work and then as the night progresses, you know, you get the results, after a while, it becomes kind of like mathematically obvious what's going to happen. I don't know, on one hand, I was so proud of everything we did, like just looking around, seeing all the room full of people who helped us work so hard to get that far. At the same time, I was like, I really cannot believe this is over. The idea of having to put myself out there again and having had a job for a year, I watched a lot of my friends, you know, they graduated maybe a year after I did. And they're still looking for jobs six months a year, even, so just kind of like, I was nervous in 2025. In 2026, I was like, this is just so much worse than it was even a year ago. I really don't know how this is going to turn out. I could have stayed and paid rent with no job or gotten a new job, but I think I honestly was just in a really good position to be like, I can't move home. The first time I was here, I woke up, I was like, oh, where am I? I was like, why am I here? My mom keeps her exercise stuff in my room, moving back in, sometimes it feels like a concession, but it's like this was the right move for me and I just have to be confident in firm in that. Last I looked, because I wanted to be prepared for this, I've got like six active applications right now, which is not that many, 12 more I need to look kind of like get into, maybe I'll get rejected in a day, that happened, maybe I'll just hear nothing. I do think I will get a job. I don't know if it's going to be, you know, I think the idea of having like a job that you love and you're like, I'm waking up every day and I can't wait to do this. Maybe that doesn't exist and maybe that's okay. And it's more just about like, do I have a job where I can be happy enough, pay back my student loans, will I have insurance, you know, the basics right now. Zoe Gough on the hunt for her next gig living in St. Louis, Missouri, for now. I know I say this all the time, but this series does not happen without you and what you are doing would be obliged if you would share your stories with us. You can do it at marketplace.org/myeconomy. This final note on the way out today, you have surely heard. You probably couldn't miss it actually. The cacophonous street sounds of Mumbai in our stories so far this week. I'll tell you that audio alone does not really capture it. I kind of have to experience it, which is what I had in mind when I pulled out my phone our first night there driving from the airport to eventually our hotel. It's 1.30 in the morning. We're reversing down a highway because there's a monumental traffic jam. And yet I don't think we're actually getting anywhere. Welcome to Mumbai. Welcome to Mumbai, indeed, I was so tired. The amazing thing is that a government survey a couple of years ago showed only 8% of households in India even own a car. Jordan Manjeez, Anil Maharaj, Janet Winneau, Gauksman, and Virginia Kate Smith are the digital team. I'm Kai, Rizdole, we will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is APM.