Knicks Preview, Playoff Picks, Finals Predictions, and More!

Coming up on the Zacklow show, we are about 24 hours away from the start of the NBA season and the New York Knicks title defense after their thrilling playoff run that ended 53 years of misery in the greatest city in the world. Fred Katz covers the Knicks for the athletic. He wrote a book about the Knicks. Slashes writing a book about the Knicks. He's here to preview the Knicks and also all the predictions we're making them final now. I've already done my awards. We're going top six in each conference, play in teams in each conference, finals picks, champions picks. We have some guests. They're going to crash the pod probably to make their own finals picks. It's all happening coming up on the Zacklow show. We're also going to talk about some of the news of the weekend, the really sad news of Ben Simmons and Sacramento, case of Wallace's extension in Oklahoma City and what it means for that franchise and that roster going forward and today's extension deadline. So who knows, there's more stuff that can happen, but that's all coming up on the Zacklow show. The season is here. All the predictions will be in. We'll talk potential trades. Everything. Hope you enjoy it. That's all coming up next. Welcome to the Zacklow show, not the most post. That's a newsletter on subtract that you could subscribe to. We are as we're recording this about 28 hours away from the start of the NBA season, which somehow is happening with the 3 p.m. game between the Celtics and the pistons. I don't know whose decision that was, who they think is going to be watching that game. This isn't the world cup. It's the NBA. What's happening? But there is a team that will begin the defensive. It's title, a title that ended 53 years of pain, misery, heartbreak, all of that in New York City, the greatest city in the world. Fred Katz from the athletic, you're becoming a beat reporter again to cover the traveling road show. That is the defending champion New York Knicks. How are you? I'm doing great, Zach. I'm, you know, every time I've gotten a new job in my life, there's always been a little something like, you know what, this is going to be new. It's different. It's a new challenge now. I'm like, you know what, I've done this before. I think, I think I can cover the next. I didn't know how to do that. You've also written a book about last year's Knicks/The General Leon Rosier, a revitalization of the Knicks. People can pre-order this book now. It is called Under the Bright Lights. I think it's pre-order available, right? It's pre-order available wherever Amazon. You can go to the Simon and Schuster website, get it there, Amazon. Go to your local bookstore when it comes out. But for now, pre-order, it's so Fred becomes the best seller instantly. There you go. It's going to be awesome. I have a sneak copy. So, you know, there's that. Fred, the Knicks open tomorrow against the 76ers. I would hazard to guess this might be the most expensive regular season ticket in NBA history. I have not checked for tickets. I am planning to attend as a credentialed media member. It is ring night. It is LeBron's debut with the Sixers. It is the new look Sixers with Jalen Brown. It is everything happening all at once. I have not done a deep dive Knicks preview yet. I have been saving it for last. That's the right of the defending champion. Honestly, I don't like, we all know what the issues are, right? Back up center. I thought it was notable that they kept James Wiseman as their last roster spot. And that they're last roster spot. They're just last guy on the roster as of now over Bruce Brown and Ocho Baji and a bunch of other guys. And then there's the extension drama, the tabling of negotiations with Kat, Josh Hart, Duce McBride, among others. I don't really worry about that. I think those guys are pros. You just never know how it's going to unfold. There's the championship hangover potential issue. I don't know. I think this team's awesome. I think they know who they are. I think they're going to be very good. Do you expect any kind of slow start that could put them behind the eight ball a little bit in what's going to be a very scrunched up East? Not particularly. Not really. No. I mean, they ended last season, humming in such a way that I really did feel like they found something during the playoff run as opposed to it being a flash in the pan sort of situation. Like you, you watched the way they coexisted and it gave them sort of proof of concept. So much of the stuff that they were running and trying out was a mesh of what Mike Brown wanted to run early in the season last year when he first came and also kind of what he learned throughout the course of the season from how, you know, Karl Anthony Towns was the most comfortable and how Jalen Brunson was the most comfortable and how they could get Brunson more catch and shoot threes and how they could get the ball to Towns in a way that he was able to be more of a hub from the from the high post and all these different sorts of things. And OGN Nobie found his comfort zone. And I do feel like they figured out a lot. And I expect that to continue. That doesn't mean I think they're going to win 70 games and, you know, maybe they start three and four because they are really short and exhausting summer. And Jalen Brunson was on every TV show known to mankind and and must need a breath. But like in the grand scheme of things, I really am not worried about the quality of this team at all. And I think they're the clear favorites in the East again. Oh, clear favorites, Fred Katz. Clear favorites. So with the way that they ran through the East last year, man, it was just after game three against Atlanta, it was just 13 straight where they destroyed everybody. And there is no question the East is way better this year. It is way better. And we're going to run through that. But but I do think with the way that they ran through the playoffs last year, I I'm not saying I picked the field. I picked them over the field. But I would feel much more comfortable picking them over everybody else. Well, as as regular listeners know, I am in full fox molder mode with every other team in the Eastern Conference. I trust no one. I do trust the nicks. I do have or think the backup center situation is a meaningful downgrade. And we don't need to discuss why it's obvious. And it also like like Kat and Mitch Robinson together was a look that they could go to with some confidence here and there. I don't think I don't really picture Kat and Andre Drummond together or James Wiseman together really being a thing. I they clearly found Nirvana in the playoffs. And it was a discovery that I think is is eminently replicable for them. I don't think there was any mystery to it. There's certainly a fuel element that once you get in the games, everybody knows where to be and how to be and what to do. I think that's totally replicable for repicable for them. I think they know what that is and know how to find it. The extension stuff is interesting. Obviously it's it's 11 in the morning right now. Kat could sign an extension today. You have outlined I think you were really the first person to make this point that signing it before the regular season gives them the option of opting him in and declining him, which is massive for their second apron issues is jail. And Brunson's big deal kicks in down the line as extensions for Andenobi and heart and et cetera kick in. Who knows? Like I wouldn't who knows what can happen between now and I think six PM Eastern with that. What is your sense of worry that this could if if none of these deals are struck and these guys are going into the season in somewhat of a limbo situation and all of them want to stay with the nicks. I mean I think that's obvious right. What is your sense of like could this actually impact the on court product or not? I lean I think it could impact it in moments in terms of derailing them. I lean towards no I mean last year they had so many issues at the start of the year including with Kat and Mike Brown and that was a real communication issue and a real feel issue. It was a basketball issue. It was a personal issue. It was kind of all of the above right and Kat was playing his worst basketball that we've seen in play in a long time and they figured it out. And when it came to a time where it's like is this really are you really going to let this cost you guys the season they got a little better in the second half of the year Mike started to adapt to cat a little more cats are to adopt to Mike a little bit more and then obviously comes to the playoffs and they fall down to one and Mike Brown and is often a coordinator Chris Gent and TJ Saint is deputy there decide that they're going to run a lot of the playbook that they ran early in the year but get the ball to cat in different ways to get him more comfortable and and Kat just buys in and obviously excels in my opinion especially considering the circumstances plays the best basketball of his entire career on both sides of the ball during that playoff run. So I don't think that Karl Anthony Towns is the kind of guy who would let it derail a season. I also think that I empathize with him like he just had this incredible run. He's been a max player every single year of his career. I'm not arguing the Nick should give him the max and just hand him every dollar that is not a business should go and it's not how it goes in the way that the NBA works now and that's good that's the way so a team should operate but that being said like I understand by Karl Anthony Towns doesn't want to give back tens of millions of dollars compared to you know what he what he might be able to get on the open market next summer and if the Nick's operating with a second apron mandate it just boxes them into that spot. Kat was absolutely incredible in the playoffs until the last two or three games of the finals when the foul trouble reared its ugly head. Did he have a basket in the fourth quarter of the finals? He did at some point. I assume score a basket in the fourth quarter. Remember there was like a stretch where he did. He did. He did eventually. Yeah. In game in game four he had he had a couple of big buckets he had that up and under on on Wemba Nyama and they had another on a drive and the game worked them back. But yeah, he didn't score even he was great in like those first two games. He was fantastic for three quarters and then But that's also a function of how they play like the offense runs over to Jalen Branson in the fourth quarter. That is just, it is, it is predetermined. It's, it's the Mariana Rivera cutter of and no, don't, don't, don't bring that guy. That name is not to be brought up on this podcast. Good for Mariana Rivera. Great. It's awesome. You were annoying and you're still annoying to me. Um, the cutter is the most annoying pitch. There was a, there was a, the, the reliever on the brewers, uh, Ashby, the lefty guy, where's the rec specs? She has a, a version of that where it goes, it goes inside to left handed hitters by a left handed pitcher. It's like, I've never seen that like that was a, that guy's a badass. Okay. High school friends with Landry Shamit will bring a full circle. No way. Yeah. Yeah. Like really, really close. I think they're like best friends. Oh my God. Yeah. There's full circle. That guy pitched the last three endings of the sleep against the Dodgers. Boyle boy. The Dodgers. All right. All right. Alright. All right. Congratulations on all, you know, they did win two world series. Did they cheat? I don't know, Fred. You did the Astral sheet. I'd like to, do the matches need to cheat? Is that the theme? Okay. Um, so James Edwards, your colleague has reported the extension offer for Cat is in the ballpark of four years, 200 million. I had penciled in, so that's 50 a year average annual value for my math is right. I had penciled in 55 average annual value as like a fair compromise where if I did my math right and it's possible, I didn't. They could be under the second apron next season, 27, 28. I actually used his player option number for that season and they're still under it fairly comfortably. Um, 28, 29 if you pencil in 55 for cat, the max for Brunson, make various assumptions on heart in Anidobi and, you know, Shammett, who's partial and Cole, like who's partial and et cetera, you can get about 10 million under the second apron, but you still have like five roster spots to fill. So it does legitimately get very tight. Cat and his side have been kind of adamant like we're not offering any, we're not, we're not pitching anything that would catapult the nicks over the second apron. We're trying to be a cooperative partner. We put all that together, the 4200 number, my math on 55 a year, it doesn't really seem like they can feasibly be that far apart if everybody is like, if this is all fairly accurate. I don't think 50 a year is like a grossly unfair offer for cat. I penciled in 55 myself. I'm sure every million is a nice thing for a player like what is the number? Do we know what the number is that just gets this done? I wish I knew the number that would get it done. I don't know the number that would get it done. I will say, I mean, I think part of what's happened with the negotiations now is it's become not about negotiations to a degree, right? Like the nicks put out a statement saying we're not, we're suspending negotiations until later in the season. And that was a reaction to Carl Anthony Towns commenting on multiple times and Josh Hart commenting on the sanctions. By the way, I want to interrupt you on that because Carl Anthony Towns, I said this already, he did was answer a question and very factual, calm, cool, cold terms like he did not throw any bombs. He didn't like, like get fiery about it. He's answered a question and it was honest. And if that pissed off the nicks, then like grow some thicker skin. And also the nicks. Why most teams release statements like, hey, we've come to terms with this exhibit 10 guy. Every statement from the nicks is like, we're canceling the watch party. We're fighting with the mayor. We're fighting with our players like these poor PR guys. They really have to craft like actual, you know, controversial statements. >> You know, I had, I did the reporting. It's not in the book, but I did the reporting for my book for like a section on the history of the nicks of release a statement or Madison Square Garden as release a statement. And just running through the history of Madison Square Garden as release a statement. And I, I mean, the all time one is when Richard Jefferson said while doing a broadcast that he knew it was time to retire when the nicks offered him a contract. And Dolan had Nicks PR release a statement saying that that was not true. When it was clearly, I mean, it's Richard Jefferson. When it was clearly a Richard Jefferson just biting sarcastic comment. And that's, that's, that's the ultimate one. That's the ultimate the nicks have released a statement in my opinion. Although I have to say he did call the mayor and police commissioner, Hardy Poopers before game four of the finals in an official statement, not an off the cuff statement. >> I, I did enjoy his comments to was it Craig Carton, I apologize for getting the wrong radio host. >> Yes. >> The interview he did during the finals for he did make fun of the spurs when he was like, we have the Wu Tang clan doing the halftime show. They have a Chihuahua on top of the basketball. I was like, that's a good, that's a good quip. >> All right, so we don't know what the number is. I don't think this is going to affect the nicks at all. I think everyone kind of understands whether it's 50, 55, 58 or in Josh Hart's case, 24, 26, 22. They're all going to make a lot of money. They're all legends forever in New York City. They want to keep this team together for a true kind of take two or three more cracks at this. I think those guys are all pros who know who can play through this stuff. I don't think it's going to affect them at all. Just to be clear, Nick's versus, could I add one thing? >> Yes. >> The one thing I see it affecting, and this is not necessarily a vibes thing, it's just a roster building thing is like, I could see Duce McBride no longer being on this team at the trade deadline. >> Sure. And they're designed to absorb that with Alvarado and Clarkson, and who knows what colics long term viability is with the nicks, but they're overloaded with guards. And Duce is very good and is a good shooter and a good sort of caretaker organizer type, that really a pick and roll will get into the teeth of the defense type. Obviously had an out body experience against the Philadelphia 76ers in game four of that series when he hit 9,000 three-pointers, I don't think Duce McBride is make or break to you winning the championship again if you have all these other guys on the roster. >> Yeah, I think it depends on what the consequence of losing him is. Like the nicks have built this roster because, not because, but the nicks have built this roster, and what's helped them build the roster is filling out this, subscribing to this philosophy of like, we're just not going to let something turn into nothing. Something always has to turn into something. And so they're like, you know what, Evan Fournier's drawing contract is up. Yeah, it's a bad contract coming off the books. But let's flip it for Boyan Bogdanovich's non-guaranteed the next year. So that way we have a big salary to trade from outside of our rotation for Michele Bridges or they didn't know was Bridges at the time, but whomever might become available in the upcoming summer. They even considered like when Derek Rose went the last like three or four months of the season without even playing, he had a $15 million team option for the following year. And they like had the discussion about picking up that team option. They had the discussion on, if they hadn't traded for NEA, if they were going to pick up his $18 million team option because they just want to turn a contract into a contract. And what happens when your owner says and don't said this on the radio, he called it suicidal to go into the second apron. When you say you can't go into the second apron and you have a self-imposed cap on that apron, what ends up happening is attrition. As the players who you already have get more expensive, it boxes out the other players and you end up losing guys. And the thing with McBride is he's on this unbelievable contract and it is obviously a great contract. He makes less than $4 million this year, which for a sixth man is just absolutely insane value, like he makes basically a veteran, a 10 year minimum salary is essentially what he makes. The problem is if you go through and you look at the players who make that money, like it's really hard to find a McBride trade, even though he fits really well on a gazillion different teams, he makes very little money and he's in his mid 20s and well-liked and works hard and good player and defense and shoots and all this stuff, like it's hard to find a trade that actually makes sense because the money is really difficult because the next can't take on more money in a McBride trade and they have either these larger salaries, which would entail trading somebody out of their rotation or add on a smaller salary, which doesn't really do anything in terms of what you can take back because you're just going to the year with 14 guys and you can't get to 15 till very, very late in the year because you're so close to that self-imposed second apron cap. So I think that what happens with McBride is going to be very interesting because in terms of even the short-term future of this team and the way that it builds rosters, it wants to turn something into something. Even if that's something that's not a totally desirable something and if they end up having to go from McBride for a rental who can maybe fill Mitchell Robinson's shoes a little better than Andre Drummond's Ken and he's just like a rental backup center who's gone after this year, then it's sort of continuous soup as is like the Twitter saying for it. Like that cycle starts to break and that was a really important roster building strategy to have next put all this together. A very interesting contrast, by the way, with the biggest news of the weekend, which was that the Oklahoma City Thunder signed Case and Wallis to a five year, $139 million extension that when given certain assumptions picking up team options on all their young guys, etc. We'll catapult them way over the second apron next year and in 28, 29, they're on pace for like a $325 million payroll like so far over the second apron. that you can't see it. And that's with like Jaylen Williams, big Jaylen Williams, big guy, Jaylen Williams gone, Kendra, Kendra Williams gone, maybe Nicole Atopich gone, and that year if his team option is then picked up, that's how far over they are. And Sam Presley has made it very clear in one of my favorite media availability of the offseason in his, like I'm paraphrasing, but the second apron is designed to prevent teams from adding outside talent. It's not designed to prevent teams from keeping their own talent, which I obviously was a shot at not a shot, a signal to the fans and to the Thunder's ownership group that like, Hey, if you care about this team, we got to spend to keep it together. The nicks are not spending to keep their team together. Let's just do the case in Wallace Steel now. Five years, 139 came in actually a little lower than I expected. A lot of executives I talked to had it estimated about 30 million dollars a year. It's a little less than that, less than Oman Thompson, less than a star Thompson. It's right on par with like the Christian Brown deal, 13, 14% of the cap, totally fine deal for case a little bit more than Pajemski, right? Like he fits right into that sweet spot. I think it's a great deal for the Thunder. It's a fair deal for case in Wallace. Now, now he starts this season, presumably. I think we all know what he is defensively. He's one of the five best perimeter defenders in the NBA. He's a monster on that end of the floor. I do think for him to live up to this deal, even on this team that's loaded with offensive talent. And by the way, factored into that 320 million thing for 2829 is AJ Mitchell and Jared McCain are both up for new contracts that season. I do think case in Wallace has to get a little better offensively. 35% from three the last two years on pretty low volume. He takes 0.5 pull up threes per game. Indicative of an off the dribble game that it really has not like it has not really developed all that much. And if you look at I went on the second spectrum tracking data and you look at everybody who had a hundred or more drives to the basket last season. It's almost 300 guys. He ranks toward the bottom in efficiency in pretty much every category points per possession assists per drive, shooting fouls per drive. Like, wait, it's worth the bottom. And this is a guy who's getting catapulted into pretty easy opportunities to drive the ball. None of that is to say that this is a bad deal. Case in Wallace is awesome. I do expect him to develop offensively. But I remember Bill and I had a debate about what's the ultimate ceiling? Like if you just gave him a team, could he average? I think Bill was like, could he average like 24 a game on a good team or something? And I was like, I don't like I guess like 18 because we just haven't seen enough of these still very young. But like no brain or deal for Oklahoma City. It's a great deal. It's just it it is going to get so prohibitively expensive. If you keep McCain, if you keep Mitchell, they have three first round picks coming in the door this year. That's that could be one of them is the Clippers pick like those could combine into $20 million of salary. Like there are going to be other roster casualties. I think down the line just because this is going to get so expensive. But good on the thunder. He's a core player and it's a fair deal. Do you think? Yeah. I thought it was a very fair deal. The number that came to mind for me was it's it's really similar in terms of percentage of the Captain Dyson Daniels. And and I think he's very much a Dyson Daniels sort of archetype. And I think he could argue he's he's a better player because of the way Daniels is shooting fell off last year. Great defensive player. Unbelievably important now that they have dork no longer there. I actually think he I know the numbers aren't there. I think he showed a little more ball handling a little more ball handling progress last year. He had a stretch. He had a stretch like. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We're the thunder were missing a bunch of their guards. Shae was out and Dub was hurt. I think Caruso might have been out too. And they were they were missing their guards. And and Casey Wallace kind of had to run things and and he went for 20 in three straight games and he was running about 20 21 22 pick and rolls the game during that stretch and and looking good and creating shots and getting to the rim a little bit easier. And I think his his duties are going to grow a little bit more. His inclination is just not to shoot. His inclination is to screen and to cut. And I kind of wish sometimes that his inclination was more to shoot. If we're going to make a thunder comparison, he kind of reminds me of if Stephen Adams were a guard. Like I remember when I used to cover the thunder and I covered Stephen Adams. The whole thing was Stephen Adams was Billy Donovan was telling him all the time. Like you need to look to shoot more. I know it's your inclination to not want to shoot. But if you aren't actually looking to shoot, it's going to make you a worse screener and a worse cutter and a worse and a worse passer because teams aren't going to have to guard the shot. They're just not going to have to guard it as aggressively. And I wish he would look a little bit more to be a little more high usage. I also feel like that's something like he's a very smart player. He could probably get to I think it's a totally good contract. And for what it's worth see all these people saying regarding the nicks like why is why should the nicks go into the second apron? There's a reason why all these teams are trying to avoid the second apron. Look at the thunder avoid the second apron. Why are they not getting the flack? The nicks are and I think the difference between these two situations is the nicks have just the only thing we know about the nicks strategy where the second apron is James Owen saying it's it's suicidal and not really providing any actual analysis as to why. Did you expect some are you waiting for a blog post like Tadley answers used to do back in the day before his blog became so embarrassing that he had to delete it or you what do you expect that blog? A sub stack. I love the Tadley answers blog. Don't be smart. The Tadley answers blog. What was the big three? The new big three that you tried Andre Blatch a John Wall and Jordan Crawford Jordan Crawford. That by the way if you google that post it's gone Fred. It doesn't exist anymore. By the way the advice that you gave for Stephen Adams just you sports tangent. That's my that's the same advice I give to my daughter in every team sport that she plays. I have we we went too far on the like don't be a ball hog passing is important take great joy out of sharing where she passes up shots that she should take because she's like it hurts the team. This isn't take these shots but I it's my it's my fault and just with my what brief window into crazy sports parenting Fred cat cats. I had to coach her soccer team years ago she doesn't play anymore one game because all the coaches were sick and I decided because the kids had been stuck at the same position every game the defenders were getting bored the attackers were getting the ball the time everyone's going to rotate positions everyone's going to play a little goalie everyone's going to play a little defense everyone's going to and we had a striker on our team who was very good and I started her on defense and she was pounding about it and I said hey what's what's wrong girl X and she was like well you have me on defense to start the game and I was like that you're gonna be fine you're gonna go on offense we're all rotating and she goes right to my face you know I'm just not gonna make as much money today and I was like why and she goes well my parents paid me X amount of money every time I score a goal and I looked her straight in the eyes as politely as I could hoping she would deliver the message to her parents I don't think she did I said hey girl X I think they should pay you every time you get an assist and she kind of smiled at me confusedly anyway you sports tangent just to be clear before we take a break and move on to other things Nick's versus the field in the east I am taking the field without thinking about it for a second you were you were wavering Fred I need to nail you down here no Nick's versus the field I'll I'll take the field but I just think the nicks are the favorites by the way to complete my points Sam Presti said out loud for everyone to hear to the Oklahoma and again in his press conference like he did them avoiding the second apron this year was not a second apron decision it was a we are the third smallest market in the NBA and can only spend so much money and he explicitly said in a in an interview on the record with his name on it that the savings that they have from this year's team because they're not spending as much we'll go to future teams and that also explains the case Wallace extension which is going to drive them way past the second apron and put them into paying tons of tax dollars like people talk about the second apron like it's like it's the luxury tax threshold like oh he can't go into the second apron because it's so expensive and it's like well he that's true it's a high payroll threshold but like it's a it's a it is a roster building threshold and if you're going to cap yourself with the second apron anyway then you're imposing a lot of those second apron penalties on yourself whether you go into it or not so the reason why the funder don't get as much grief is because like who are we to say that the third smallest team and the third smallest franchise in the league third smallest market in the league should be the most expensive team year in and year out that doesn't seem to make a ton of sense and they openly say we're doing it because of money you know the nicks is is a different situation where we assume they're doing it because of money because we know it's coming from the owner but there's been no way to explain the logic Fred Katz takes the field I take the field we're going to take quick break and then we're going to come back and make some actual hard and fast predictions does that close show is brought to you by fandoole the NBA is back and this is your most rewarding season ever on fandoole how rewarding are we talking more rewarding than a half court buzzer beater more rewarding than a 29 point comeback maybe even more rewarding than a center knocking down a three I I mean, come on, everybody loves when the big mavelets of fly. And this MBA season, that feeling doesn't stop on the court. Look out for Fandool World's Club exclusive offer surprises and more. So every week, check the Fandool app to see what's waiting for you. Make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandool. Download the app to get started. 20 or an over and select states are 18 and over at DC or Wyoming. Gamley problem, call 1-800-Gamber. Call 1-888-789777 or visit ccpg.org/chat and get etiquette. This episode is brought to you by McLeod Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the MBA. As this season tips off, boy, would I love to be close to the action of McLeod Ultra in hand at Thunder Spurs, at Nick's Ringdite, any Nick's Sixers game. How about Jalen Brown when he returns to Boston court side with the McLeod Ultra for any of those the MBAs got a ton of great rivalries plus great news for fans. McLeod Ultra is not only getting you close to the game with court side tickets, but also bringing the court side to you through experiences and behind the scenes moments we rarely get to see. Enter now at mcLeod Ultra.com/cortside. McLeod Ultra Courtside 26-27, no purchase necessary. Open US residents 21 plus begins in October 1st, 2026 and ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at mcLeod Ultra.com/cortside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. All right. I've delayed it long enough. It's time to make some predictions. Fred Katz, I told you we're going to do a couple of things. We're going to pick a number one seed in each conference. We're going to pick the top six finishers in each conference, non-play in no order for that, and then the four play in teams. We're going to start in the West because it's the less interesting of the two conferences. I will let you lead off your number one seed at the end of the regular season is-- Oklahoma City. We have the same number one seed. Don't need to belabor it, Oklahoma City. Your top six in the West, in no particular order, is-- I actually thought this was incredibly easy. The West plan is tough. The East is obviously really tough. I thought the top six in no particular order, and the West was a no-brainer, actually. Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, Minnesota, Houston. Lakers. In Combin Top Six from last year, I agree that is my top six. I will give you a bonus prediction spurs of the number two seed, which is a duh. If Oklahoma City is going to be the number one seed, Houston is number three with a bullet for me in the regular season. And then we have the same top six. Let's get spicy, Fred. Your four play in teams in the Western Conference are who? All right, this one's tough. I got Portland there. They're the one I feel kind of the best about. I got Phoenix in there, even though I think their wins are going to fall off, but the West is just-- it's not the typical West that we're used to seeing at the bottom of the conference. I put Utah, and I put Dallas. OK. Utah, Phoenix, Portland, Dallas. Here are my four. No particular order. Four West playoff team. Play in teams. Play in teams. Utah, I have them as well. They're going to be really interesting. I've watched-- this is the most preseason basketball I've watched in a long time. And there's one team in particular. My opinion of them changed because of what I saw in the preseason. And we'll get to them later. They're an East team. I think Utah is going to be a very powerful offense. They have an issue at center with Nurkichert to start the season. I just like how much do they want to play with three big guys. I think Ace Bailey looks really good and is leveled up defensively. So I'm high on them. I have Phoenix in Portland as well. Although I have a sneaking suspicion, and you can call me out for hedging if you want. That one of those two is going to have a bad season and miss the play. And I just don't know which one. I wouldn't surprise me if one of those two misses. But I have both of them in. Utah, Phoenix, Portland. I have Memphis as the last play in team. Over Dallas. I think Dallas is really interesting in the preseason. Like Kyrie looks great. Kyrie and Cooper together are going to be great. Two of the top 30 players in the NBA. Generally, she gets you in the play in. I really like to pick. They played these lineups when Kyrie is on the bench, where it's like five wings slash power forwards in Marais Johnson Junior's playing center. Here's why I didn't pick Dallas. And I have extolled my love of Memphis and this team. I'm over my skis on Memphis. I'm too enthusiastic. I know they're just deep. I like them. So I won't get into that here. I just sick. I a little worried about Dallas trading Kyrie. If the bidding gets too high and what that would do to their season. Even though they are incentivized, I think to avoid the relegation zone because of the pick that they owe Charlotte is top two protected. But I think that's what it came down to for me too is Memphis versus Dallas. I think Dallas is going to be solid. They're a good cutting team. I've enjoyed watching them in preseason. Interesting that neither of us had the warriors. We both have the warriors just flat out missing the play internament. I actually didn't even really think that hard about it. And I will say like the warriors in the preseason have reminded me that when they are healthy and that involves Alhorford or Christophe Sforzinga. So basically Alhorford playing as a stretch five. And they have Steph Dremon, Yaxle looks like really ready to go. He's overpowering people. He's playing point power forward. He's running inverted pick and rolls. When they can space it with a shooting five and like run their stuff where everything's flying around, no matter what the talent is, if Steph Dremon and a stretch five are out there, they're going to just be tricky to play against and they're going to punch up and win some games that you're like, wow, the warriors look good. I just like Steph already left the open practice yesterday with an ankle tweak. Like God, it appears to be nothing. Horford is going to play X amount of games. Forzinga is like, I don't even know what's going on except that he had to tweet. He doesn't have AIDS, which is like the craziest thing that I think an NBA player has tweeted it all on time. So I'm just out on the Warriors as a play in team. I'm sorry. I went Memphis. You went Dallas. We both have Utah, Phoenix, Portland. Yeah. I mean, for Golden State, it's really just came down to aging health for me. And if you told me they could have a normal Christophe forzinga's for 60 games, then I would think differently, but not having KP is a huge thing for them. Al Horford, I thought kind of lost steam in the second half of the year. Last year. Dave 40. Yeah. It's 40 years old. He has notoriously been in just notoriously been an unbelievable shape throughout his entire career. Everyone talks about LeBron spending a million dollars on his body, whether LeBron says that's not true. And they don't even know how people got to that number. But like, there are some NBA players who are just notorious around the league for just keeping unbelievable care of their body. And Al Horford for like years and years and years has been talked about by every single coach, trainer, whoever he's worked with as like this guy takes unbelievable care of his body. That's what allows him to play till he's 40. You know what? Let me also, you're just relying a lot on him. You've got some nice players, I mean, obviously, Steph is still awesome and Dremont is still a great defender, but you're relying on a lot of question marks if you're a golden state. And they could totally make the plan. I don't feel amazing about you to, of course, of course, of course, they could make amazing to be clear. Of course, Golden State could make the plan. You could make a case for the Pelicans. I just think it's too crazy. There's too much chaos. There are too many fit issues. But I wonder, you're reminding me about LeBron. I think I should calculate a, how much do I spend on my body budget, just to like, so let's compare myself to LeBron. My bike membership, I think, is like 30 bucks a month for the digital bike I have, the smart bike I have. And you know, so that's like 350 bucks right there. If you amortize the, my, my weights cost over like the course of a year, that's probably like 300 and that's probably another dollar. Like I'm, you know, I'm less than a thousand for sure, I'm less than a thousand. I mean, if you include all of the money that I spend on DoorDash ordering in Carvelle as spending it on my body, and we just don't hold over, hold on kind of body I'm trying to maintain Fred, Fred, you're, you're ordering Carvelle. I've already put on the whole of Carvelle is outside of the East Coast. Carvelle is an ice cream cake and probably ice cream, it's an ice cream shop. That makes like a Fudgey, the whale was its most famous cake when I was a child. Are you just ordering Fudgey, the whale to your house? Like what's happening Fred, you only live with, you only live with one other person. Like what are you doing? There have been Fudgey, the whales ordered to the house. That's been done before. Fudgey, the whale for people who don't know is exactly what it sounds like. It's a chocolate whale. And you know what, that's money that I'm spending on my body. This is this requires part of the budget. I just have never heard of an adult person ordering Carvelle to their house on DoorDash. I'm a little bit, I'm a little bit flamix. One team we did not pick to make the play in is the Sacramento Kings and it just should be noted that look, the Ben Simmons fishing jokes all that we got some good mileage out of it. I've heard from people who worked with him that he looks great. He looked awesome in the preseason. He took eight free throws in two games, which to me, I've always said like you can leave the jokes aside, I will not really take him super serious. is an impactful NBA player. If his default mindset is, I can't get fouled. And it looked in the preseason like maybe he had taken steps to be willing to get fouled. And he made his free throws. I think he was set up in a bait from the free throw line in the preseason. And he tore his Achilles in practice or something yesterday on Sunday or Saturday, whatever it was. And it just like the guys health issues were real like the nerve stuff, the back stuff. That was all real stuff. In addition to what was clearly a mental block that he was afraid to get fouled, the infamous past the thiable was like a landmark moment in recent NBA history. There's just like, it just sucks on a human level. He looked really ready to make an impact on a team that badly needs his skills to obviously keep us not going anywhere. We know that. But it looked to be like a nice reason to watch the Kings and a nice comeback story that could lead him to being on a good team at some point. And it just now it's another year of this. There's no, there's nothing else to say. It just thoughts with the Ben Simmons and his family. It sucks sucks. I watched their preseason game against spurs. And he was legit going at the rim. Like he was, he went, he was, he was going like, Luke Kornat's a good rim protector. And he was going at Luke Kornat. I was like, okay, Ben Simmons actually looking spry and aggressive. And I know it's, it's really unfortunate any time anybody has a major injury. And that guy's been through a lot. So rapid fire for him. West thoughts, rapid fire, West thoughts. I'm a little worried about the jailing green fit and Phoenix. I'm very worried about the job Moran fit in Portland. Not that he's played badly. It's just seeing him off the ball so much is strange. And sometimes makes no sense. Like there were, I watched there. I had to care my right who they played. And I watched one of their preseason games. You know, he got like Dame kicked it to him. Dame runs a big and roll kicks it to jaw, jaw, faces a very soft close out because they're like, go ahead, shoot a three. And he doesn't shoot the three. And he just sort of drives into a wall. And he's not the same athlete that he once was. But I think on talent, they're just too talented to not be around 500. And just, you know, we're talking sons, just KD coming off the top rope with a return to Twitter this week to go at Maddish B.O. who kind of said the KD trade was a bad idea. More or less KD. This was the second tweet. This is just ice cold and a plus tweeting from an all time Hall of Fame Twitter. You should be giving thanks every chance you get. You don't have to pay me an absurd amount of money to play for another team. So he's not only going at it. He's going at Bradley Beale in the same tweet, although not naming him just a great, a great, great job by Kevin Duran on the Twitter. That's like seasons back. We, uh, we, uh, oh, another preseason take. I need to get off. This should be the preseason should be the training ground. First of all, coaches, what are you doing challenging calls in the preseason? I understand. So we're trying to go to our children system like in order for the regular season. All right, forget that. There should be a rule in preseason. Every coach is challenged a minute or less. If you can't make your decision in a minute, we just the call stands and we move on with life. I watch the preseason game. They're reviewing this fucking call for five minutes. I'm like, we, it's preseason. What are you doing in the regular season? That should be the rule. Okay. Um, let's go to the east where it gets a little spicy because in the west we're pretty similar. Your number one seed at the end of the regular season for the Eastern Conference. Fred Katz is next. Interesting. I went with the Boston Celtics. I am not going to pick the Boston Celtics to make the finals, but I think they're just going to win a ton of regular season games. Uh, and I have said my piece on that. Um, but I think, I think what we're going to see in the east is and they're by default, there's going to be some choices for the seven and eight and nine spots where people like, wow, that team's in the play. And I think there's going to be, once you get down to like the three seed maybe, I think three to eight is going to be, there might be four wins difference between three to eight. So like someone's just going to have to be in the play. And I think the other thing is because all these teams are so close, typically you're like, well, it's so hard to come out of the east or come out of any conference if you're the succeed because you just have to play all the good teams all in a row, all without home court advantage. I think that's much less the case this year in the east. Like I don't, in terms of opponent difficulty, I think you could have almost as difficult as a row of a road from the two seed as from the eight seed, basically. Like you want to have home court, obviously and that could matter. So I think everyone, when they hear some of these teams where they are seven, eight, whatever, like they can absolutely make the finals from those spots. I think that that's the way the easy shaping up. So I went Boston. Um, all right. Now Fred, it's interesting. Give me your top six Eastern conference teams, the teams that are unscathed from the play. And yeah, this was so hard. I will say I completely agree. The team that I have seventh and not in the top six. The team that I have seventh, I think has an argument as the like could win the east, like has has an argument as a second best team. Like I almost put them at two and I put them at seven. Uh, and I think they're way better than the seventh best team. Uh, but the top six that I have is in no order. Nick's Celtics, calves, pistons, sixers, raptors. Okay. We have five of the same six. I feel actually very as confident as one can be in such a jumbled conference about my top five regular season Eastern conference teams. Celtics already said, nicks. Again, no order here. Caves, pistons. I just think the floor is too high. I think people are way too low on the pistons because of all the drama and whatever, Jalen Durin, do they have enough shooting blah, blah? They're going to be an awesome regular season team. It took note of how Jalen Durin played against Minnesota in his first preseason game. He took a three. He looked faster. He was working off the dribble. Just took, I just took taking notes. Uh, and I think Toronto also has a pretty high floor. If they get 55 to 60 games out of Kauai, those are my top five in no order, no order, but like those are the five I feel more or less like I would bet on them being out of the play. Six is tough. You went sixers. I went sixers. I might pick, I like, there were three teams. I thought very hard for picking to make the finals harder than I felt. I thought a lot about all these teams to make the finals. But really, if you asked me like, who did it come down to like who are the real teams that you would actually pick to make the finals? I was debating between the nicks, the sixers, and the team I ended up picking for the six bot in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers. Um, I think they've looked awesome in the preseason. Zubat's looks like a very clean fit. His floater is like a very interesting little weapon for them in a lot of different scenarios. Uh, and Haliburna looks like Haliburna. And the way you know, he looks like Haliburna is he's not just doing like the quick twitch passing, hit a heads, sprinting up the floor, dancing for threes. He's actively like trying to get by guys to go to the rim when the matchups are favorable to him and he's doing it. So I have them, if they're, I have them at six. Um, you could, you could take, which means I have Philly in the play in tournament. So who are your seven to tens? I bet we have the same top tempo. Who are your seven to 10? Yeah. I have Indiana at seven. I mean, the reason why I have Indiana is low. And I think Indiana is so good. And I think they could win the East. And I know it sounds like I'm kind of trying to have my cake and eat it too, which is terrible. Cake, Fred, Fudgey, the way I was trying to have fun. Yeah. I'm trying to have my Fudgey, the way I'll need it to, which is a terrible expression. It's an awful expression because nobody has ever eaten a cake without first having said cake. You can't eat the cake. You never have had the cake. It's a terrible expression to begin with. But I am trying, it might seem like I'm trying to do that. I'm not trying to do that with it. All right. So India, you might take the Pacers. I think it might take them a minute. Like, of course, Zubat's is a really good player and a better player. I think the Miles Turner. And eventually, I think that will be good for them. But stylistically, he and Miles Turner are very different. And the way that he affects the spacing is very different from the way that Miles Turner affected the spacing. And Haliburton is just going to have to learn and operate differently. And I have no doubt that he will figure it out. He is a brilliant point guard. But I just, I think it takes a little bit of time with all of that. You know, that's also an injury where it's like, you know, I watch Haliburton just absolutely slice off the thunder and the preseason the other day. And he looks like totally normal Tyree's Haliburton. But, you know, as we saw with Jason Tatum last year, where it's like, you could look really, really good right away. But the greatest difficulty is not looking really good for a spurt. It is actually maintaining it throughout the course of a year. And you can mark it down in November 10th Tyree's Haliburton is going to sit out tonight with calf soreness or something. That doesn't mean he's going to get injured again. That doesn't mean anything traumatic is going to happen. It's just like Jason Tatum and Game 7 of a playoff series. There's just going to be, there are going to be setbacks like that, troughs like that. And yeah, like I, like I had to be in a six. I said no order, but they were my six team because I do think all of these concerns are valid. But you have them seven. Give me the other three teams you have in the play in. The other three teams I have in the play in are Atlanta, Miami, and Orlando. All right. So we have the same 10 teams with Charlotte on the outside looking in. The only difference is I have Indiana in the top six and you have Philly in the top six, which means I have seven to ten Miami, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Atlanta. Do I feel good about having Miami and Philadelphia in the play internament? I do not. Both of those teams would scare the shit out of me to pick against them in any fashion, including this. I think Philly could absolutely make the finals. Like I said, they were one of three teams that when it came down to nut crunching time, like who do I actually have faith into win three playoff series, they're one of them. We all know that the regular season is going to be a roller coaster of health and chemistry and depth and all of that, although I think they're depths actually all right. So I just, again, like they could be eighth with 47 wins and Cleveland could be third with 50 wins. Like that's how close this is going to be Miami, like when the honest is on the floor, they're going to play at a 50 plus win pace. That's how good he is. That's how good he's looked. I don't really care about all the fit issues that people see, including me, like how our bam and him going to fit. I just like, this is kind of a wager, a slight non-monetary wager against like the repeated leg injuries are starting to make me nervous. I shouldn't assume that they're all going to be isolated at the end of a season as they have been. And what he's off the floor, I'm a little bit worried about their offense. And again, all these teams are going to be scrunched up together and Orlando, I just feel like just they're going to be fine. They are what they are. Atlanta is the single most confusing team in the NBA to me. I have no idea what to expect for them. Do you think it's notable for Ed Katz? They appear to have settled on starting the CJ McCallum lineup from last season, which was gangbusters for them and makes it extremely hard to hide any bad defender anyway. If you're going to put your like center on Dyson Daniels, which a lot of teams do, their little guy defender as the Nick's experience in the playoffs is going to have no safe place to hide. That does mean Lou Dort is coming off the bench, which I think is a really interesting move and a real statement by the coaching staff. We just have to play with a maximum flow and as much shooting as we can get on the court at all times. And sure, there's going to be times when Dort and Daniels and Jalen Johnson all played together. But them not starting that I think is a really interesting move and a vote of confidence in how they played last year. I just don't see them in the top six. Yeah. I think it also allows them to stagger Dyson Daniels, which is something I could really see them do throughout the course of the year and just gives them an absolutely elite point of attack defender on the court at all times. On top of the fact they also have Nikhil Alexander Walker out there for a lot of the time who is just excellent on the ball off the ball everywhere else like that. That is when those three are on the court together, that's going to be maybe the most stifling perimeter, preo in the east, maybe in the league, they're going to be really difficult to play against. And so yeah, I like Atlanta. I think Atlanta is good. I think there's some noise in those numbers. They're starting lineup was like plus 20 for a hundred possessions after they came together last year, but they played a really, really soft schedule. But they didn't just play nobody else good, they just didn't just play a soft schedule. They played a non schedule. They played like they played teams that were trying to lose games, not to players on the court, of course. And some of the teams they played were missing very good players when they played them too. Should note, another reason why I have Detroit is such a high floor is like, if they're good and they're going to be good and they decide to get aggressive, they have everything they need to go get a North Powell, a Tyler hero, like the secondary creator that they don't have is sitting there for them the moment they decide it's time to hit one of the buttons that we have in our disposal. I think people are really sleeping on the pistons. I took the over on them with Bill and House. I think I locked it actually out of anger that they were so pessimistic about the pistons. And I should say, I like what I've seen from Philly. I watched every second Philly played the five guys together in the preseason at every second that Joel and B played. I think he's moving in on defense with little spurts of speed here and there. Offensively he just sort of walks into the free throws and points. I think I'm not worried about their offense when those guys are on the floor. Everyone's going to have to sacrifice a little bit. We've already seen Jalen Brown like kind of in the dunker spot here there are coming off pin downs in the corner, but also everyone's going to have opportunities to like Jalen Brown runs the floor and gets a deep seal against the smaller defender. They feed him the ball. I think that's all going to work out. Okay. Those are our top 10 in each conference. Just take a quick break, we'll do a couple more predictions and then wrap it up. One other thought on Jalen Brown is I would like to see him get even more active as like an intuitive cutter. And by that, I mean, when I was watching one of the sixers preseason games, either LeBron or Maxi and the two of them running two man game with him beat and with each other is going to be really the center of the offense. What that means for Jalen Brown, we'll see. One of the ball handlers got blitzed and Jalen Brown was in the corner. That's the read I'd like to see him make is like come up from the corner. Don't just do the scripted cut come up from the corner in private as a release valve. And that's when you really get the offense moving. Okay. Prediction before we get to our final predictions, I gave you an assignment, pick the star player who if you said right now on October 19th that they were in trade rumors in January February, it would be a surprise. But if they are, it's not going to be a total surprise to you. And I'm disqualifying all the obvious ones, the King's guys, the Net's guys, Kyrie Irving, like we know Tyler Hyro, like we know all those guys on expirings are on bad teams are going to be in rumors. Fred Katz, give me your answer. All right. This is basically the question of like, are you going to like, am I going to piss off? Everybody. Piss off. Everyone's pissed off all the time, Fred. It doesn't matter what you say or what you do. Everyone just mad about everything, so just embrace the anger. I see, it's hard when you take away all the caveats, I'm not reporting this by any means. No. Yeah. Let's be clear. We're just saying where all this is is looking at the big puzzle pieces of the league and thinking what makes some logical sense that people don't see coming right now. There's no reporting. There's no intel. They're just like, this is what we think of this team and this whatever. So that's all they're done. Go. Yes. Okay. Does Jared Allen count? No. Okay. Disqualified. Pick somebody else. And then I'll say Evan Mowley. This is so great, this is such a great pick. Then I'll say Evan Mowley, I like what Cleveland did this summer with what they had. I thought the Peyton Watson signing made a ton of sense for them. They have been after sort of a fifth guy who could splice in and make sense there for a long time during the regular season. It kind of seemed like maybe it was going to be Jalen Tyson. I think actually the numbers with Jalen Tyson starting were never very good. And then he kind of fell off in the playoffs. I'm still high on Jalen Tyson as as a role player in a guys he's going to be he's still young. He's going to be very good. But Peyton Watson kind of gives them extra switchability at the third spot, gives them somebody reliable. They can play there. That's it. If this team is just good and if this team has I know technically the core has changed because they flipped out Garland for for Harden and they did make the conference finals last year. But if this team is meandering lower than it expects to in an Eastern conference that is going to be really good as we just detailed, then it's it's expensive. It's a really expensive moving forward and I could see them having to make a shake up. And I do think like Jared Allen is the most intuitive place to go. But if we're really naming names, I kind of think the next one after that is Evan Mobley. And the reason why I say Mobley is because you could get a lot for Evan Mobley. Like you just re up. You just re up Donovan Mitchell on his huge extension. He's there. James Harden just resigned and is 37 years old now. Evan Mobley, you can actually get a lot of stuff even on the contract that he's on, which he got the escalator for because he won defense player of the year. You can get a lot for Evan Mobley back and you can change the makeup of your team while still being competitive. It's not like you have to trade Evan Mobley for a bunch of draft picks like you can get good basketball players and change the way that you're configured. I'm not even advocating for the Cavs to do that, but this does seem like it's like we said this about the last year or two to a degree where it was like, well, if it doesn't really work, this year, then they're going to change it. And they did they they flipped Garland for Harden and they did make it to the conference finals. Even if it was like a trudge to get there and it took them two seven game series against teams, they probably should have handled a little bit better given the way those two teams played. I think Mobley is the guy I'll go with. It's a very it's a bold and interesting pick. Not surprisingly, I've bounced this question off a lot of people around the league. And the Cavs featured in a decent amount of the responses. Not very many. Mobley did not come up though. Jared Allen came up and I disqualified him like I did with you. A couple of people did say Donovan Mitchell. I just think his deals too big and it's too early. I didn't they're not on my list because I think the Cavs are going to be very good. I think the Cavs are going to be good enough in the regular season to for stall any of these kind of decisions. I'm going to read you some names. that I brought up and that a couple other people brought up with me around Lee. In no particular order, Devon Booker, um, I just think the sons have been so hell-bent publicly that he's going to be a son for life that I just don't see it unless he agitates and I don't think that's going to happen. I also think they're going to be solid. I just said, they're like decent, also a good oral, by the way, three years, 29 million, fair deal, good job, everybody involved. Many of the, uh, came up only because, um, it is not really possible for the blazers to extend him because he just doesn't make enough money, um, on his current deal. So 140% of his current salary is nowhere near what his market value will be. I, it seems a little dramatic for the blazers to do that. So I'm a no on that. Couple people brought up Luke Adonchich and I was like, no, just stop, stop, it's not going to happen. I, I know we all know where the lakers are Dan Woyke and I talked about it. They're, they're a little stuck with this team. I think this team's going to be very, very good. I just don't think that's the move. I don't think there's any move this season. I don't think that's the move on for it. Joel and bead popular choice, uh, I like, and I don't know if anybody wants that contract. I also think the six years will be fine. Uh, now we're getting to, I, Zion Williams tonight disqualified, uh, it's too obvious. So here's where I came down. Here are the, here are the remaining names Kevin Durant. I think the Rockets are going to be awesome. So I, I didn't pick him and it came down to these two guys. Franz Wagner and Jamal Murray are my two, are my two just out and nowhere like that guys being traded or maybe traded and I think for Orlando, we know all the reasons like I just don't really think that this team is going to be a 50 win team that looks capable of winning multiple playoffs series, despite the fact that they may well have won one last year at Franz Wagner, not gotten hurt. And it's 11.51 a.m. on extension day and there's been nothing for Anthony Black quit yet. The money is what it is. And Jamal Murray is just like, I don't know if the nuggets just decide this ain't working anymore and we got a retool, they just don't have a lot of other buttons to push. I think the market firm would be okay. I don't know. David Bother making fixed trades, those are just my answers to my own questions. Is Franz too obvious? Are you going to describe, give you the right to veto, Franz? No, I think Franz is fair. I'm curious. I have a follow question. I'm curious why you say Franz over Pallup and Carol. I just think I, I, I, I don't know what I would do. I actually think Franz is probably a better all around player than Pallup and Carol, but maybe not as good of a quote first option as Pallup and Carol, although I don't really know how relevant any of that is. I just think Pallup has like the sexy number one guy, he's our guy in Orlando kind of looked to him and he's been very good in the playoffs for what it's worth that I would, that I would assume if Orlando does make a dramatic move, it's that, but I don't know. Yeah. Okay. I think a dramatic move from Orlando is coming. I don't know if it's going to be Pallup or it's going to be Franz and I don't know if it's going to be in season or it's going to be next summer, but I think a dramatic move from Orlando is, is coming period. Like you got Franz long term 25% Max, Ben, Carol, long term 25% Max, Bane, long term 25% Max, Jalen Suggs, you got it, you know, 32 million this year, whatever it is and then two or three more years after that and he's declining, but it's still a large salary and they add up. It's like you got Wendell Carter under contract for another couple of years and if, if you're a plan team, like, can you be paying all this Anthony Black was really, really good in the second half of last year. If he continues to progress, he is going to be expensive. Like he's going to cost money. I'm a fan. Like I, when I was doing extension previews over the summer, like I texted a lot of people around the league about all those guards that were extension mostly Pajemski, Kason Wallace and Anthony Black. I put Kianti Georgian a little bit of a higher tier just because of what his creative ability is on offense and he did come in at a higher salary. And one of my takes was like, I'm not as all of their predictions came back to me as what all these guys would get or what was fair value for them. Like is Kason Wallace $10 million a year better than Anthony Black? I was like, I just don't see why that is. Other than he has, and it really does mean something, he's made big shots in the biggest moments possible. That does matter. Anthony Black has not. I mean, Kason Wallace made three is like backs against the wall to one down in Denver game four of the road. He made like those are the kind of shots we're talking about. But I think 80 black is really good. So those are my picks. Those are my two picks. All right, Fred, it's time. Last year, my finals pick was Thunder over Nix was incorrect on almost every front of the Nix making the finals, and I certainly lost some faith in the Nix midway through the season. But that was my pick preseason. I stick to it. I will let you lead off your finals and championship pick for the 26 27 NBA season. Well, I'm going with the 2025 Zacklow classic of Thunder over Nix. I think that's what I'm going with a OKC. Just was not healthy last year. Not having Jaydeb, I think, is a very overlooked part of what happened with them last year. They cleaned out a decent amount of their depth. I also have an unbelievable amount of faith in their player development that you just know there's going to be one or two guys where you're just like, OK, I guess Thomas Sorbers awesome now. You just know there's going to be guys who step up and are just that. Their core is so good, it is still so young, they still play so well together. They retain Heart and Stein. I think OKC is my pick, and I do think the next to the best team in the Eastern conference. It's really hard to repeat. It's exhausting to repeat. It might be a little, maybe it's a little overstated, just because we haven't seen it in eight years. I don't really know why it's, I know it's more difficult from a roster building perspective to repeat now. I don't know why it's more difficult physically to repeat now than it was eight years ago. But I think I think OKC is the team. I agonized over this more than I typically do for a final pick. Obviously in the West we're agonizing over two teams. If they're healthy, they're the two best teams, and if they're not healthy, then maybe the door cracks open for Yokech because he's that good or the rockets or Luca goes bananas for three playoff series, but I think the door has to crack in that sense. There have been times when I was going to pick Oklahoma City, like at the end of last year, I said, I'm going to pick Oklahoma City to win the championship in the following season. And then as the summer's gone on, I just like that dude in San Antonio is so fucking terrifying that I really could see, despite the questions about are we now playing all three of the guards together because Dylan Harper wants to start. What does that mean for our team? General youth and turnover pro in this in big moments last year, particularly against the Knicks. Could they have beaten Oklahoma City with not just Jill Williams, but AJ Mitchell's out for the last four games of that series, I think, you're your best secondary creators by far to flank Shay both out. Despite all that, I was like, man, that guy is just so scary and every single, I mean, just get that thing to seven and to have it close in game seven required in in game seven Shay to make just one audacious, ridiculous shot effort and other because they, their offense basically just ceased to function against Wombanyama. It became Shay bail us out or Hartnstein, can you hit like nine floaters because that's the only shot that we can get. That's how terrifying Vic is in the East, you know, you have this backup center question for the Knicks. You have this no team has gotten back to the finals in eight years, which somewhere has at least entered the hazy zone where it might not be a trend. It might be somewhat random, but it's not completely random anymore. And you have the sixers loading up in the whole conference is loaded up. In the last time, I'm going to pick Oklahoma City to make the finals. I just think with J Dub and AJ Mitchell and McCain in a full year with them, they're going to have enough offensive options if they're healthy to score enough against the spurs that their defense can carry the day. I also think it's just an awesome story, like vengeance, hey, this is what we want in sports is for a team that has won the whole thing to get knocked down and come back and say that's not it for us, like, and no one thinks it's it for them to be clear and shut in particular to come back and be like, I'm not happy with what happened last year. I'm embarrassed about what that guy did to me. I'm coming back for it. So I'm picking Oklahoma City to make the finals out of the West. In the east, I'm going with the nicks again. So we have the same two teams in the finals and I have my same pick as last year. In the end, the Fox molder, trust no one just overcame everything else. The two teams I considered most strongly other than the nicks are the sixers and the Pacers. And I damn near pick the Pacers because they've looked that good in the regular season. The sixers we all know the health and all that stuff, like I just don't know how I can possibly project what you all in Beads availability will be in the playoffs. And they're going to need him to win three rounds. The Pacers really came down to not Haliburne so much, not Zubat so much. Some of the fringe stuff, could they rediscover what they had two years ago. McConnell kind of took a step back last year, massively important part of their team. Neymar and Neesmith, both very good players, both love 'em. Just like Dan, when I throw them up against the Knicks wings, can they get to that level again? Like I'm just not convinced enough to pick them to make the finals, but those were the three teams I considered. Thunder over Knicks is my finals prediction. The thunder when the championship again, Fred, we have the same prediction. And now we're gonna bring in a couple of guests, hopefully, to crash the podcast and make their predictions. From the ringer Spotify family of Michael Pena and Kirk Goldsberry, Kirk, I will start with you because I don't know your pick yet. Pena wrote his pick today. I'm about to yell at him about it, but I want you to get first. - By finals pick, Zach Lowe, and it's always great to see you boys, is sort of an emotional hedge. I have the Oklahoma City Thunder defeating the New York Nicarbockers in seven games in the NBA finals. - Fred Katz and I have the exact same pick, emotional hedge Kirk Goldsberry. Care to elaborate on how you are coping. - Well, one of the best things in the NBA right now is this rivalry here in Texas where we have the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. I, of course, everybody who listens to this show knows I'm a big spur supporter, and I think they could do it, but, you know, I've learned a lot from Bill Simmons and one of the things I've learned is the reverse jinx and the emotional hedge. - Oh my God. - The techniques of the podcast. - Are you making that honest picker? Is this dishonesty? - It's honestly, and the way I look at the games act too, the statistical profile of Thunder over the last few years deserves our respect. It commands a lot of respect. And I'm one of the people, the observers that said, "Hey, if Jalen Williams wasn't hurt last year, my spur probably wouldn't have beaten them in seven games." Like, he is that influential to them. So assuming all the teams are healthy, I haven't seen anybody beat this full-formed Thunder team yet. And so they deserve that respect. I will root for the spurs, you guys know that, but this is not a gimmicky pick in the sense that I do think that Thunder with a chip on their shoulder are the most dangerous team in Pro Basketball. - Before we get to Pina, who did you, who did you think hard about in the east than the next? Who did you agonize over the most? - You know, when we did this, hey, you have to pick somebody other than the next thing the last couple of weeks. I took the traveling Wilburys, okay, the Philadelphia 76ers. - The gray reference, nobody under 35 is gonna get that reference, but I hit the traveling Wilburys hard back in the '90s. - And they're hard to handle, and I think-- - Weed are in the monkey man, hard to catch, staying up all night, you and cocaine and ash. - Yeah, and I think the sixers, but do you do, dude? I think the raptors are ascending in my brain in the Eastern Conference. They might be my postseason overreaction team in the east. So if it's not the next, I'll say raptors. - Before we get to Michael Pina, app transition, Mohit de Keele, friend of the pod, is traveling today. He sends in his prediction via text, which some other notable people on the Amazon prime staff, by the way, chickened out on doing, that will not name any names. - Oh wow. - They don't wanna make predictions. Mohit de Keele picked the spurs over the Pacers in the NBA finals in 2027. Michael Pina, explain yourself. (laughing) - Before I do, I gotta say, do you want me to just get my pick outright real quick? - No, you wanna say something? Do you have a free answer? You have something on your mind, so say it. - Kirk just mentioned the Toronto raptors, and Zach, you comparing Kauai and Scotty Barnes and culinary boils defense to sign-filled ripping away the Schnitzer's marble rye in your league pass. Ranking column is why everyone should subscribe to your newsletter, so I just have to get that off the top that was a perfect metaphor, and I'm gonna think about that scene every time I watch the Toronto raptors play basketball in the season, so thank you so much. (laughing) So great. Okay, do you want me to give me my prediction? - I do. - Okay, so I have the San Antonio Spurs coming out of the west to beat the Toronto raptors in the NBA finals. - Oh, wow. - It's quite bold. - And I'm kind of surprised that no one had, you all had the Oklahoma City Thunder beating the San Antonio Spurs. - All of you. - Yeah, we rightfully agonized over it and went through all the challenges, all the reasons why I had a whole thing about how Wemba Niyama actually scares me so much and how the entire Thunder offense by the end of that series was either Shay bailout jumpers or Hardenstein floaters and how that nervous that makes me. But yes, that's a fully formed Thunder. I'm going with them over the spurs by the thinnest of hairs. - Yeah, totally fair. I think that this will just be an epic revenge tour for the San Antonio Spurs. I love that they're basically rolling in back. - Were they getting revenge against? - Yeah. - Well, the pain of losing the finals as they did, it was one of the more excruci, and it was five games, but it was excruciating. Every game went down to the last minute basically. It was extremely close, extremely competitive. And I think that they have a bitter taste in their mouth coming into this season, rolling it back with everyone. The fact that they were so young getting that far, I think is a bonus and a plus. I think Wemba is going to win MVP. I think that it's really great that they've already announced that Dylan Harper is going to start on opening night and that three-guard lineup didn't really play out last year. The numbers weren't great in an incredibly small sample size, but I love them doing that. I was never a fan of the idea that Deer and Fox should go to the bench. I do think that by the end of the season, that Champagne will be back in the starting lineup and that Devin Vicell makes the most sense going to the bench for a variety of reasons. But regardless, Dylan Harper is just an absolute madman. And I'm so excited to watch him in year two. His ascendance is going to be really something to keep an eye on in one of the bigger plot points of the seasons. Defon Castle could make the all-star team. I just love everything about them. I'm adding Tobias Harris, who was like the third leading score, or I think on the 60 win Detroit Pistons last year. Great depth addition. They're one of the deepest teams in the league. They did beat somewhat handily. The Oklahoma City Thunder and the regular season last year several times. Eight four and 12 games. Eight four, three four five. Yeah, so I like, I do just love how they match up. And I think they have the best player. And I think it'll be close, but I just, I like them a lot. And I think they will win it all. I think the Harper thing is super interesting because when you throw Tobias Harris into a wing slash tweener forward rotation that includes Champagne, Vicell, Keldin Johnson, who just won the six-man-in-year award, Tobias Harris and Carter Bryant, I think it's going to be very interesting how they manage the rotation because you could easily argue, this team is actually less well-suited to play the three-point guards together than last year's team was with all those wings and all the shooting that I mentioned. So I get starting, Dylan Harper, and just sort of nipping whatever controversy might exist in the bud. I'm just, is it, we all get too fixated on who starts games. Who finishes games? That's right. It's a very interesting conversation. And this does not nip that in the bud. And I'm not sure that's the right, the three guards together is the correct answer. Michael Pina, I admire your steadfast loyalty. You're about to get ripped, buddy. To a koala. You never could quit the clippers. Kind of half expected you to pick the clippers to make the finals this year just that happened. And instead, you have picked the Toronto Raptors because if there is one thing that the last 10 years or the last seven years of NBA history has taught you, it's that relying on Kawaii Leonard is the smart bet. Explain yourself. >> Well, he was one of the five or six or seven best players in the league last year. He still brings it on both ends. He had the highest usage rate. >> Hold on, I think my boyingo wireless signal just wait a little for a second. Oh no, we're back, keep going. >> I highest usage rate, highest true shooting percentage of his career last year, which was incredible. He was amazing. And I think that even though he wasn't the same defender that he's been when he won defensive player the year a couple times, he's still like one of the best defenders in the world. And just absolutely incredible on that and can rebound one of the best rebounders in his position. I will say technically the last two seasons, he has ended them on two feet playing basketball, playing basketball very well. I'm not saying that it's a rational or anything like that to hold skepticism about his health, but that is true. And he was awesome in that series against the Nuggets. They were unfortunate, the club was unfortunate to draw the Denver Nuggets in round one. And then last year, it was like kind of a weird team where they make the mid season trade for Garland. And it was an odd situation. They lose in the plan to the Golden State Warriors and Alhorfer hits like 19, three pointers. So I like why being there. I think he's just an absolute hand and glove fit. Everything that the Toronto Raptors needed. And this is also just a bet on that core that they already have. I think Scotty Barnes, Zach, I think you agree with me. You wrote this. He could be one of the top 10 players in the league this time we're talking about the Toronto Raptors next year and just widely considered that. I think he's an all NBA player. I think he's a defensive player. The year candidate when if Wembee doesn't play 65 games. And I love that, that, you know, we talked about this a little while ago, Zach, that he could be one of the better teammates that Kauai has ever had. I'm so high on Scotty Barnes, the energy he brings, the intensity hold on on that. Well, Kirk, like, I'm not, I can't let that go. This is when you, this is what you use the, hold on, this is when you use the middle name, Kirk. Has anyone ever heard of Timothy Theodore Duncan? That's when you use the middle name, no disrespect to these guys. They were in their mid to late 30s when, when Kauai was really like their teammate, no disrespect. It's a debate. It's a debate. It could be a debate. But moving on, like, I just, I just, I love the defense of this team. I think it'll be the best defense in the Eastern conference. They know how to move the ball. They play fast. And I just love everything about them. So there's, there's the questions about the, the front court, I think, with Jakob Pertel, for sure. Hopefully he has a bounce back here and doesn't have deal with the back injury that he suffered through last year. But I, I like the Raptors. And this was also agonizing. The East has a ton of really worthy candidates. You have the Celtics, the Knicks. Some people are higher on the Sixers than me. But the Sixers are certainly in that conversation. The Pacers. I love that pick. So there's just a lot of, of, of candidates. And I'm just, I'm just going with my guy. I can't, I can't shake him. Would anyone like to follow up with Michael? I mean, I, I love it. I think the Raptors and we, we all look at the preseason the same way. I think the most provocative point he had mentioned is quite Leonard's probably the best player in the Eastern Conference. If you look at some of the advanced numbers, like if you look at estimated plus minus now, Yannis has a case two. Brunson has a case two. But if you're looking at, at the very top of these rosters, quite Leonard, you could see winning the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. If, as Michael says, he's playing on two feet. I think they deserve that kind of respect. I love their coaching, which is another thing we didn't mention. I pick for coaching a year. And the other thing with the spurs that Michael said is, look, the October starting lineup is going to go a lot of attention because of injuries and attrition and back to backs. The most important thing with the spurs is they're going to see a lot of different lineups and a lot of different looks. And Zach, I love your point. It's not about who starts and finishes. It's about who finishes the games. It's also about what starting lineup we learn about throughout the course of this season. I'm of the mind that I want to see two guards and I want to see Champeni and I want to see Harris next to Wembee and spacing. And I know there's some people in San Antonio. There's still sort of figuring that out. But those are my two responses to Michael. And I don't roast you, Michael Pina. I think that was a good pick. You're just going to have trouble in New York walking around saying the next thing I'm going to make the final. So everybody, if you want to share your address, Michael, this might be a good time. It's a, it's a totally fine pick. Fred and I did our top six in each conference earlier. We both had the Raptors stone cold lock to be in the top six somewhere. We didn't rank other than, you know, not the number one seed. And I think, honestly, that's like one of the factors in picking a team to make the finals. And we talked about this Kirk and we were talking about if you had to pick a non-nix team is like, are they going to be in the play or not? Because there is a certain amount of risks that comes as being in the play. And if you don't think a team's going to play and they have a little bit of a leg up, even if you think a team could come out of the play and from the east and make the finals, which I do, depending on who falls there. So I think in that sense, it's a fine pick. Any concluding thoughts, Fred Katz, you've been quiet for a while. Any concluding thoughts you want to get off before you go? And you want to promote your book one last time. I would love to promote my book. It's under the bright lights, the revival of the New New York Knicks, it's out February 16th. And you can already wear. And Andy Valentine's Day present for your dude. I do want to say, nowhere in the book does it say that Scotty Barnes is better than Tim Duncan. Okay. That's fair. All right, Fred Katz. Thank you for your time. Katz and Shude podcast covered the Knicks again for the athletic Kirk Goldsbury and Michael Pena ring our Spotify mainstays. Thank you, everybody. And get ready for the season, baby. We're almost there. We're here. We're not almost there. We're here. It's happening. All right. That's it for today's edition of the Zach Lo Show. The next time you hear from me on Thursday, we will be into the thick of the NBA season. We'll have already seen Knicks six or Celtics pistons all sorts of other stuff spurs thunder. Thank you to Fred Katz. Thank you to the guests who crashed. Thanks as always to Mike, Billy and Jonathan on production. And thanks to you all for listening to and or watching the Zach Lo Show. We'll be back on Thursday. 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