Ken Paxton’s Leaked Trump Comments Are a Spectacular Own Goal

Hello everyone down in Texas Ken Paxton is fighting for his life and while he's in the middle of this He went and did Donald Trump his Maga Godfather a little bit dirty Listen to this audio that just came out I I'm JBL. He's Andrew Edgar Andrew. So what that was Ken Paxton was in a small meeting of potential donors trying to raise money for his struggling campaign and He was complaining about the midterm convention that Donald Trump held in Dallas, Texas Saying that when Donald Trump came to Texas, it hurt his campaigns numbers and in fact he said it hurt everyone's numbers It's astonishing, right? I mean, it's it's genuinely astonishing It's astonishing any way that you want to slice it. It's astonishing that any Republican would say this say this I guess not in public. He didn't think he was being recorded But it's astonished that even behind closed doors any Republicans would say this to a group of Republican donors when the bedrock principle of the midterm strategy for Republicans is Donald Trump's the only guy who can pull us across the finish line But it's part about it, but it's particularly remarkable that Ken Paxton would say this Ken Paxton who is The most unbelievable cornucopia of electoral weaknesses. I mean, he he is genuinely just one big garbage bag of downsides Stuffed into stuffed into you know, a suit when he's out there complaining a suit that Donald Trump doesn't like very much The Donald Trump doesn't think fits him very well, but You know when it comes to his personal conduct his his you know his adultery his flandering his his public corruption His his many weaknesses as a candidate on the trail with with a complete void of charisma You know all of these things one thing after another the only reason that that he is where he is now as the GOP nominee in Texas is because he Unlike, you know the incumbent Senator John Cornyn was supposed to be the Maga true believer the true warrior for the cause and and he played that well during the primary and he got Donald Trump's late endorsement And that was what carried him very handily through this primary and so this more than really anything I've seen You know, it's not it's not that surprising to see guys like Tom Tillis or John Cornyn or or I don't know Don Bacon Get out there and basically say well, you know Donald Trump not not necessarily You know, we're not really sending our best when we put him forward as our as our alpha and omega campaign surrogate But to see Ken Paxton doing I mean this is biting the hand that feeds you on a scale that we just haven't seen from other Maga Republicans this cycle it the vibes must be really bad right now So I want to I want to peel a couple layers on the onion here Andrew because first of all the How we got the leaked audio is itself instructive These were not remarks made at a giant ballroom fundraiser. This was a small fundraiser with a dozen people Hand selected to come and one of those people taped him because as the New York Times says The person who taped them does not support Paxton And so they they're inviting Paxton's enemies who are going to be either not voting or voting for the other guy To their fundraiser because that's how they can't find 12 people who are rich who they know for sure are going to vote for him Yeah, yeah, I'm astonishing Yeah, this this uh this spotlight's a couple of things one is just the the universe of donors Paxton's having a really hard time with it, right? I mean that that was that is basically the biggest thing about being a sort of establishment Leadership type Republican whether you're John Kornin or whether you're Mitch McConnell or whether you know You're your former house speaker Kevin McCarthy. I mean these guys bring in the cheddar, right? These guys are are fundraising machines. They have the relationships They know you know how to butter up the donors and then they get in these rooms and they can make a lot of money Texas is a really expensive state to run in and there's no indication that Ken Paxton who has who has been extremely unpopular even within his own party For his entire political career got impeached by Republicans in the Texas legislature at one point in time I mean the the the universe of donors that he has to draw in is very small Um, and it's a really expensive state to run in I mean a ton of different media markets you need a lot of money to be competitive in Texas Which is part of why Ken Paxton has been up until now so reliant on Donald Trump's piggy bank I mean Senate leaders have been begging Trump to get involved with this race a couple of weeks ago Trump finally did Open up his his extremely large pile of pack money Extremely large bag of pack money and reached in and started throwing millions and millions of dollars Ken Paxton's way He's gonna need every dime of that But does that I mean is that complicated now by by by Ken Paxton who again the only the only purpose He serves is that he's supposed to be a loyal foot soldier come what may and now come to find out You know he's been shivering Donald Trump to donors. I mean how does Trump feel about things? It really I just my jaws on the floor about the whole and it's in the New York Times So we know that Trump is gonna read it. That's the best. I mean again a Ath somebody who is supposed to be a target for donation went to this thing for the purposes of recording Paxton And then when he or she got something amazing Went to place it with an outlet that they knew the the president would read Unbelievable Another reason just to keep picking at this gap Another reason donors are reluctant is because they don't think he's going to win Right, it is I mean there are two components to this one of which oh three components really so there is the You know residual loyalty to cornon and the butt hurt over cornon losing his primary There is the moral revulsion over who and what Ken Paxton is And then there is just the cold utilitarian like I don't know this guy has a loser stench all over him And nobody knows that more than president Donald Trump himself. Here is Donald Trump's endorsement of Ken Paxton at the Dallas Convention I said I don't like the way Ken dresses Although I also said he looked really sharp in that suit yesterday. I thought spiffy And then I said I don't really like the way Ken talks And then I said something that they really hated. Please sir. Don't say it sir So I'm not going to say but I'll tell you what I was thinking about some I said I don't really like the way he looks. I don't like it. I don't like it But you know what I do like he was the greatest attorney general in the history of Paxton Please serve me. I have another. Yeah, he looks like a schlub. He doesn't know how to talk But I guess I'll vote the way we want him to so uh vote Paxton Yeah Yeah, I mean it really is And the the constant cuts to him where he's just sitting there having to take it I mean there's a reason a lot of a lot of Republicans Stayed away from this thing altogether, right? But it was it was in Paxton's backyard You know is in Dallas. It was there in large part to prop up this sad sacks race and uh and apparently it has not succeeded in that aim I mean like we we almost glossed over the actual content of what he said to get to the ramifications of it But I mean They do all this Paxton tree they put on this whole big show they put it in Texas In large part designed to kind of rally the troops around This guy around this guy and I guess around around Greg Abbott who's running for reelection But I mean Abbott is supposed to win Paxton's the one who's in real trouble I mean in a really blue way. I guess Abbott could lose too But but Paxton's the one who's who's really you know in in a fight for his life as you said right at the top here And for him now to be telling donors at a moment of maximum candor that in fact it hurt in fact it not didn't only bump the needle It was counterproductive. They saw a loss in their numbers after that convention. I mean I just You don't have words to talk about how strange it is. I mean like this is can you imagine like a worse headline for Republicans to be waking up to this morning Then this admission from this guy in this race in this state And the content that he is is describing presumably accurately in that the mind reels So at Abbott by the way, I think that race is going to be much closer than anybody anticipates I think he's almost certain to pull it out in the end but Gina Hanna-Hosa has run a very credible campaign And I credit her for in large part how well Talleriko is doing so because she is not because Gina is not a tomato can You know, and she is running a good campaign against Abbott at the top. I think that helps Talleriko quite a lot And then when you just put Talleriko up against I go back to this. So, bit of a work versus Ted Cruz was this young charismatic guy running in a good cycle against a guy, everybody just disliked, right? Like, Ted Cruz, he's smart and nobody, he's got a punchable face and, you know, nobody likes him. He's spending all his time podcasting. It makes him so much worse than that and I can just mean as a quak candidate skills. Like this is a piece of horse flesh. He's like modelled and he barely campaigns. He doesn't try. He spends all his time like jetting around Europe with his mistress and he is not electric. He does not have the best words. He is not young. I mean, he looks a lot older than he actually is. I don't know, like James Salarica is this young fresh face guy doing town halls all over the state. Like the energizer bunny and Paxton isn't just unlikable and has a ton of baggage and has engendered bad feelings and all that. He absolutely sucks as a candidate. Yeah. Yeah. I think, I honestly think, I mean, yeah, 2018 Democrats did very well. You could consider that a wave election by a lot of metrics. I was surprised when I went and refreshed, Axios had a good piece on this this morning when I went to refresh my current state of play, state of the vibes in Texas. They're way worse for Republicans now than they were in 2018. I mean, the economic picture is the same as it was the same as it is everywhere, right? I mean, the Texas basically thought the economy was doing well in 2018. It basically thinks things are bad today. But even just, you know, Donald Trump's approval rating, it was it was in the black. It was an income in Texas. Yeah. And he's underwater there now and then you add all of the actual negatives of Paxton relative to Cruz. And then you look at the fact that Cruz only won by two points in 2018. I mean, I don't want to get carried away here because it's a close race. It's a really red state. Tellerica has led in almost every poll. Yeah. You'd need to have a polling miss, which I mean, we've never seen one of those before. Yeah. But and so because of that and because polling in general is just so this is a margin of error race. Yeah, 100%. That's all I'm trying to say. This is a margin of error race. Every narrative point would suggest that Tellerica is running away with the thing. But it takes all of those narrative points just to make it a margin of error race in Texas. So that's all I'm trying to say. I could see this outcome anywhere from Paxton plus two to Tellerica plus three. Does that sound about right to you? I'm so bad at handicapping these things. It seems extremely plausible to me. Yes. No, I'm just saying like in the distribution of like the meat of the curve distribution of outcomes, I would say very close to median outcomes are Paxton wins by two or Tellerica wins by three. Anything within those polls seems like a coin flip outcome. Yes. I totally agree. However, there has been some good news for the Paxton campaign, Andrew. I'm not sure if you are aware of this, but he did get some good news. Are you ready for this? I'm ready. Hit me. You may remember, as I'm sure most of our viewers do, that Ken Paxton was once upon a time and kind of still technically is married to Angela Paxton, who is herself a accomplished Texas state politician. Now, last year, she filed for divorce on "biblical" grounds, which I don't quite understand what that means. Does that mean she was afraid of being turned into a pillar of salt? Means that Ken Paxton spoke too many languages in his tower? I mean, it means that he cheated on her a lot. That's the basic thing there. Oh. Well, I mean, I don't know. Maybe she should be subinding to her husband some more, not being so uppity. That's what makes it biblical. Jesus says. That's the one thing. You know, adultery. You can get out of there. I don't know. Does the maness fear think that a woman should really be able to just shoot her mouth off like this and ask for a biblical divorce? I'm just saying. I'm just saying. It seems a little beta that he would allow this. But she went, and a few weeks ago, gave a closed door speech to Republican women in Texas in which she endorsed problematic candidates running for important offices. I'll, I'll read you a couple, a couple of things. I mean, it's not quite, in fact, she goes a little bit further than Trump does even. The reality is while we are the party of values, we have some vulnerabilities on our ballot, some real vulnerabilities. And I'll be honest with you, I think Republican women will decide this election because some of those vulnerabilities, I think, have been particularly alienating to women that hold our values. Values. Just about value. Anyway, she goes on to say, because we have more control over that seat in the future when we control the seat, when it's still in the family, even if we're mad at them. But if we lose it to the other team, the nuances that we want to fix with maybe a certain candidate are nothing compared to what it's going to take to get it back, right? She says still in the family is such an interesting turn of phrase there. I mean, Angela, he's not in your family anymore. That was a decision. She still is. I believe they have not had their finalized agreement. Well, she's moving and I mean, she's, she's got the ball rolling. These things take time. I mean, he's, he's, he's moved on, certainly. So, you know, it is weird to me that Angela Paxton decided, yeah, you know what? I'm going to go out and throw some cover on this man who I hate so much because he humiliated me that I had to end our marriage over it. I could just shut up and say nothing. I could go and vote for him even because I'm such a true, true red Manga warrior that I'm not going to, but even that isn't enough. I'm going to publicly go out and humiliate myself again by giving him cover. I mean, I don't know. Why did Ken do her dirty? What a, that's a heck of a woman right there. I'm confused by what exactly, what does she mean quite? I mean, when, when you keep it in the family, you can deal with these nuances. Is she saying six years from now, somebody could primary him and that would be, so we're, you know, the reason to hold your nose and vote for Ken Paxton right now is to, to improve Republican odds of winning the seat in 2032 by five or six points. I mean, like it's just, well, you know, and also she wants her, longer, longer, the weirdness of going out on a limb to, to make this absurd argument because she's just a mindless partisan, but then thinking that if she doesn't say his name, I mean, she's really showing him then isn't she? It's kind of fun to think about Ken Paxton himself and like, you know, should I spotlight this message? You know, just so you know, when he's talking about, you know, Republican men who are problematic and, uh, and are hard for women to vote for, but you should anyway, she's saying vote for me, you know, get out there, pull the lever for me, problematic Texas man Ken Paxton. I mean, it's just, I don't know. This is what Trump has taught Republicans though. Don't you think? Right? Like, I mean, Trump has taught Republicans that you have to do this and not, it's not enough to like, in the quiet of the voting booth, pull the lever for your guy. You have to prostitute yourself and go out and publicly absolve him anyway. Like, you know, if you're super clever about it, this is, this is no different than Mitch McConnell saying, like, you know, well, the legal system will get him later, you know, and, uh, angel Paxton deserves everything she got and everything she's got coming. So does Ken. Whoa. Okay. So about that one, JBL, I'm, you know, Angela, Angela, she, whatever, we'll let you be, I'll let you be the one who, who, uh, who passes judgment on her here. Anyway, it's going to be great, boy, I, I, I got to tell you, if I lived in Texas, I would be voting for Tallariko with a song in my heart like I have, have almost never felt for voting for any candidate anywhere. I mean, like these, the easiest vote I would ever have cast my entire life, you know, there we are. All right, uh, so, um, want to hear more from us in person, Bill Christ on Andrew will be joining me and the rest of the Bullwark crew on tour when we head to Atlanta for our live show on October 20th. Go to the bullwark.com/events and get your tickets to come see us. It's going to be a good time because as we all know, Andrew, the greatest delicacy in life is watching bad things happen to bad people. Good luck, America. [BLANK_AUDIO]