KasperNFL | EP. 03

0:00 Speaker 1 All right, welcome to episode 3 of the Casper NFL, Casper Sports Podcast. We do have myself hosting Casper MLB as well as the chemist as the Co host and joining us. We've got a very, very special guest. 0:16 He's been in our server as a Casper for quite some time and he's been doing very, very well. Went on a couple runs not too long ago. We've got Mr. Gutz here with us, so Miss the chemist if you want to go on and take us from there. 0:33 Speaker 2 Absolutely. We had an absolute blast last week with Maddie Covers. Super excited to have everyone back here and super excited to hop into the lab with Guts. Guts has been just electric on X, watching his plays, watching him grow, his platform and just seeing all the love and engagement that he gets on there. 0:53 He has a great mind through multiple sports avenues and just super excited to get to know him, get to pick his brain and just kind of have him on today. So guts, if you want to go ahead, hop into, you know, kind of a little bit about yourself, a background, how you got started, etcetera, and then we will go ahead and hop straight into the pod here. 1:13 Speaker 3 Yeah, of course. Thank you for the intro chemist. That was very nice. And you know, it's just crazy to hear those words of praises, especially since I only started about 5 months ago on X Always been into sports statistics growing up, how it used to pretend to write out sports cards of my family members and like calculate all the stats myself. 1:38 Just always been obsessed with it. And so this journey where I've gotten to it's, it's not the biggest surprise, but the outcome is. And it all started, it stems from dynasty football, honestly. And that's just ironic because that's your specialty as well. 1:53 Chemist. Another member in the dynasty week I'm in saw me hit a couple crazy home run parlays in April, and I always share the data on them. And he suggested starting a page on Twitter and seeing where it goes. 2:10 So shout out, shout out to Geordie for that. And that's really how I got to where I am as a person. Father and husband first, always the priority. And then just a sports nerd. Statistics, just watching baseball and football and basketball, it's just it's just it's who I am. 2:29 So yeah, that's that's my. 2:31 Speaker 2 True. Awesome. Yeah, I think we we all probably align very, very well with that and very similar to a lot of your interest. So I think we will have a lot of fun today. Without further ado, I think it's time we hop into the crunch time with the chemist here. 2:47 So let's go ahead and get started. Bijan ran for three touchdowns. Green Bay ran for 17 yards total. Falcons stomp the pack 3514. Mahomes went 2424. That's a practice Rep with fans. 3:04 Miami's Owen three Chiefs roll on 24/10. Carolina's kicker outscored Carolina's offense. Watson found fan and late Browns edged the Panthers here. 21180 Giants touchdowns, 4 field goals. Their kicker outscored the Titans by himself. 3:19 Giants win 12 to 7. T Law threw 3 touchdowns. New England threw 2. Picks 0 vibes. Jags feast here 35 to 6. Buffalo turned it over five times and still one. Josh Allen ran in two touchdowns. Bolts fall to Oh and three. 3:34 Bill survive 2416. Gino went 31 for 37 and still lost. Gibbs scored three times. Welcome to The Jets, Lions. Hold on 3124. The Colts scored one touchdown. Schrader hit 4 field goals, including the winner with 21 seconds left. 3:51 Colts steal it 1917. Darnold threw for four tuddies plus a pick 6 for the other team. Peak Darnold here. Commies win 3331. The Steelers scored three points last week, 3 this week 30 points. 4:06 Somebody found the offense. Steelers edge Cincy here 30 to 27 and Purdy threw 4 touchdowns. Kittle caught two of them. Their kicker missed two extra points. 49ers hang on here 36 to 30. Tampa threw 2 picks and took six sacks. 4:23 Minnesota took a punt back for 86 yards. Vikings win 2316, Tyler Shuck threw 4 touchdowns and still lost the Saints fumble away an 11 point lead. The Raiders are three and Oh yes really the Las Vegas Raiders are three and OH. Vegas wins 3527 and Dallas tied it with 10 seconds left. 9 seconds later Tyler Loop hits 456 Ravensteel at 3431. 4:47 Denver trailed 16 to OH at the half. Then a pick six and a late Bonex sneak. Broncos comeback 3026 and Monday Night Football case freaking Keenum 3 touchdowns. Philly threw 2 picks. Bears handled the Eagles here 27 to 7. 5:05 And that is the crunch time with the chemist guts. Let's talk football my man. Are you ready? Absolutely. 5:13 Speaker 3 Let's get into it. 5:14 Speaker 2 Sweet What is your favorite NFL team? 5:19 Speaker 3 That would be the Pittsburgh Steelers, born and raised. 5:24 Speaker 2 Has your family always been Steelers fans or is that something that, you know, kind of picked up along the way through, you know, your childhood or school, something like that? 5:34 Speaker 3 Yeah, my, my dad's always been Pittsburgh sports in general. They're from Western PA. Both my parents, they met out there. So I, I just grew up watching Troy Palamalu, James Harrison, Ben Roethlisberger, that squad. So couple of Super Bowls in my lifetime, thankfully, especially with how they've been recently, I don't see that in the near future. 5:54 Speaker 2 You never know. Absolutely. That's fair. That's fair. Yeah. Very cool. How did you initially get into sports or sports betting? Did you play a bunch of sports grown up or were you more of someone that you know? 6:09 You talked about analytics. Are you someone that just kind of like to watch the sports or did you play them? If you did play them, what sports did you play? 6:18 Speaker 3 Sure, there's a couple angles here that led me to where I am right now. Sports. Yes, I did play sports growing up. Baseball for Wow, 14 years. Didn't play in college but was good enough to start in high school. 6:35 Played outfield, pitcher, ran cross country. I actually qualified for nationals my junior year, so that was probably my best sport. I know it's a little nerdier, but was a good long distance runner. Bowling, you know, I had a 190 average my last year playing in a bowling league. 6:55 And then basketball, I played rec basketball, so a lot of sports playing. And then like I said, just obsessed with sports statistics since day one. I think I get that from my dad. My dad's really good at picking correct scores and money lines and stuff like that. 7:11 He doesn't gamble, but he likes picking correct scores. So got that from him. And then like I said, I used to literally have paper line sheets and pretend like my family members were a professional baseball player and like I'm writing the back of a baseball card. 7:29 Like their stats calculating batting average based off their bats and hits the whole 9 yards. From there, sports betting, you know, just like most people with the advertisement increase in it just started casually just placing bets while I was watching sports. 7:44 Didn't do too well. I was like no I need to stop being lazy with this and that that really just happened this year and then like I said my dynasty buddy, I was sending him data that I was looking up and started hitting some home runs frequently and some other props and he was just like you got to share this on X and see what happens talk to my wife about it. 8:03 I was like just give me a year. Let's see what comes out of this. And here we are five months later. It's still very surreal. I people calling me the goat and it just doesn't sound right to me. But that's that's how I got in this space. 8:18 Speaker 2 I love that. I've got one quick thing here. You mentioned your dad being someone that can call spreads, can call, you know, game lines. Yeah, correct. Scores different, different things like that. Do you think it's genetic that plays a factor in this? 8:35 Or was this just, you know, kind of a hobby that you and your dad enjoyed together growing up? I've I've seen and heard that, you know, your dad follows you on X, which I think is super, super cool. So yeah, just curious, you know, if if that was something maybe you guys bonded over? 8:49 Speaker 3 I don't know about genetics, but he he's always been the same way. He would bring a scorecard to all my baseball games and and literally keep score for everyone and whoever had the best game he would give the scorecard to at the end and. 9:05 Speaker 2 That's awesome. I love it my. 9:07 Speaker 3 Dad's my dad's a great guy. I love him so much. And and yeah, it was it was pretty crazy when he texted me, I think it was last week, that he follows me on X. He doesn't know what he's doing on there. I. 9:17 Speaker 2 Don't know what any of the. 9:18 Speaker 3 Acronyms you're saying means, but it's cool to see people comment on your on your stuff and and you get in love. And I was like, I appreciate that, Dad. Thank you. 9:26 Speaker 2 Yeah, absolutely. I I saw that, saw that post go out and I just had to, you know, make sure we got a little shout to your dad in here. So moving on here, do you have a favorite type of NFL bet, whether it's, you know, a touchdown score, a certain type of prop, a spread? What's What's guts like to bet on? 9:44 Speaker 3 I just like hammering a good straight. It doesn't really matter what type of bet it is, whether it's a player prop and over, if I find a good enough edge, like last night it was Jalen Hurts interception and I love the data behind it and it's something that I can absolutely hammer on a straight. 10:03 That's what I do. I don't really have a typical one type of prop that I look at. I feel like that's when you get in danger, when you only limit yourself to one specific prop market. You need to be able to just find the edge wherever and that's just hammering a good straight. 10:18 I just love it. 10:20 Speaker 2 Yeah, absolutely. I think that's something more people probably should, you know, try more often. It's it's so much fun to hit those massive lotto's. It is, but yeah, hammer in the straights is is what kind of grows our bankroll. So that's love that that's where your head's at is just finding an edge. 10:37 If you had a piece of advice for someone getting into sports betting, what would that be? 10:43 Speaker 3 You mentioned it kind of right there, bankroll management. I don't think most bettors understand it or, or realize it. You know, you're just depositing $10 at a time and hoping your $10 bet hits. But the real, the real value in gains, cuz I know a lot of people do want to gain on sports betting. 11:05 It would be your bankroll management. So taking the time to look up resources or even reaching out to someone that you're following on on X for advice on bankroll management is, is my best advice. It's, it's so underrated and so undervalued and you're going to get in trouble if you don't have the concept down easily. 11:23 And a lot of people, you know, you hear stories all the time about someone messing up their family life because they got too reckless with their gambling. So that's my best advice. 11:34 Speaker 2 Absolutely. I think you're spot on. If there's one thing you wish followers knew about you or understood about you better, what would that be? 11:44 Speaker 3 That's a great question. I would say that I've it doesn't have to deal with with the sports betting side of things. I would just want people to know that I'm always going to be a family man first. So you know, the wife and kids comes first and that's something I take true value in. 12:02 This is just a nice little side quest I'm on and I'm having fun with and and growing growing in but I would want to be remembered as a good father and a good husband. 12:13 Speaker 2 I love it. I love it. I think you and I are very, very similar in a lot of a lot of aspects here. So we share a lot of the same sentiment moving on here. We have a week 3 round table. Casper's going to get us started here. He's got some questions for both you and I, you know, after the first three weeks of the NFL. 12:34 So hope you were prepared. We are going to have an absolute blast here. Sure. 12:40 Speaker 3 Let's get into it. 12:41 Speaker 1 Definitely, definitely. So guys, I'm going to have you go in and answer the questions before the chemist that way, you know, just so it makes it a little bit easier and we we we want to hear what you have to say. So overall with the, you know, with week 3 there, what was the biggest surprise to you? 12:57 Like was there you know any team or any player that either over performed your expectations or on the other side underperformed them? 13:05 Speaker 3 I would say the biggest surprise was from a team and it was the fall off from Seattle's defense. I didn't really expect that this early in the season. I know there's been some injuries, there's been some change in personnel, but man, Marcus Mariota bawled on them and I just didn't see that coming. 13:23 Week 3 really was the week of the back backup quarterback. I mean, we even saw it last night with Case Keenum. 70% of the public money was on the Eagles, right? Like no one saw that coming. I saw everyone saying that is interception, but yeah, it'd be the follow up from Seattle's defense. That's what they were known for last year. 13:40 They're fresh off the championship and they just got beat by the, like I say, wimpy commanders. But a third string or not, they're trying a second string quarterback on the on the commanders. No one saw it coming. That would be, there's some other obvious, I think surprises, but that's the one I wanted to talk about a little bit here today. 13:59 Speaker 2 Yeah, I completely agree. I'm going to pivot with mine. It's going to be kind of like the diamond in the rough here. Just game was not going their way. Somehow they still get it done. The fact that the Buffalo Bills had five turnovers and still beat the Chargers 24 to 16 is certainly my biggest surprise. 14:17 The Chargers had every single opportunity to win that game. They couldn't capitalize. Again, 5 turnovers is unbelievable. So yeah, my biggest shock this week is going to be the Bills still winning after that performance. 14:33 Speaker 3 Yeah, that's that's a great point. It's it was a funny Josh Allen stat line. It's it's so typical just two interceptions, no passing TDs, but two rushing TDs and just the wells his team to a win. It's it's. 14:45 Speaker 2 Just once you play. So it's for the memes at this point. Superman. 14:49 Speaker 1 Josh Allen, you know, it's just who he is, but great answers from from both of you guys, especially like Maddie mentioned on the last podcast, he had a defensive answer. I love the defensive answers on there. You know, it's defenses and things. I feel like it's something that get overlooked a lot. 15:06 So phenomenal. Next question here. What is a either A-Team or a player that you are essentially buying all in on, you know, their stocks up for you. You're like these, these are the guys that I think you're going to, you know, make some noise. 15:23 Speaker 3 Yeah, for me, it's math. Matthew Golden for the Packers, we're finally getting the breakthrough and seeing the draft capital that they invested pay off. He balled out on Thursday night, 100 yards at his first 100 yard receiving game of his career. 15:41 You know, first three games of the year he's been solid. You're seeing the trust build up between him and love. We want to see more out of love here moving forward. He's he's been a little shaky and I think that'll come in time. But I, I love what I'm seeing from Golden. He's sharp on his routes, he's getting the separation, he's explosive and that's what they wanted when they draft them in the first round. 16:02 So I'm all in on on Matthew Golden moving forward. 16:07 Speaker 1 Love it. Good answer. 16:09 Speaker 2 I I can appreciate the talent that Matthew Golden has kind of anti Packers myself so. 16:19 Speaker 3 I'll. 16:19 Speaker 2 Take it for what it's worth. I I do think golden the player is, I don't know wheels up, if you will. Same with Watts and I think that offense is going to have to continue to absolutely sling it. So I I think he looks great. Love your points there with mine for a player or a team that's, you know, kind of on the, I don't want to say rising because last year I thought they were capped out. 16:43 Mine is going to be JSN. I did not think we could value him any higher after the season he had last year. Through three games, he has over 400 yards and six touchdowns. He has had a minimum of at least 120 yards and one touchdown in every single game so far through three weeks. 17:04 I don't think a player has performed better. I think JSN is the guy, you know, guts. You've talked about dynasty leagues, fantasy leagues or even from a betting standpoint. I don't know that there's a guy that, you know, everyone was all in on last year, just come out starting this hot in 2026. 17:23 It's unbelievable. I think the Sky's the limit for him and quite frankly, I think he has to be in the Jamar conversations at this point. So JSN, I like to call him the Seattle slot machine. He is my guy that I thought he was maxed out and right now I'm just kind of raising the bar even higher form. 17:40 Speaker 3 I think it's safe to say he's the best white out in the league right now. I know there was conversations coming into the year between him, Jamar Chase and Puka Nakua. Puka Nakua no more. What Adams is doing without Puka Nakua raises the flag of is this really a system? I think Puka is very talented. 17:56 He was my favorite player leading into the offseason before the the drama, but JSN's route running is special. You can have the argument I I still think with Chase, but I'm all in on Jason as being the best white out in the NFLI. Love that. Love that take Chemist. 18:11 Speaker 2 Yeah, absolutely amazing. 18:13 Speaker 1 Points all around I think that's, you know, pretty pretty hard to to argue there on on those points. So going on the other side, you know, the opposite side of things. What's a either A-Team or a player that you're all out of your jumping ship. You don't, you know they're. 18:29 Speaker 3 Just. 18:30 Speaker 1 Trending way wrong. 18:33 Speaker 3 Yeah, For me it's Justin Herbert. I know that might be an obvious decision after week 3, but we we just got to call it as it is right now. He is just not the Justin Herbert that everybody raves about. I've never been to high on him personally to begin with, but this is historically bad for him versus his career numbers. 18:55 Like chemist mentioned before, they they had all the opportunities to beat the Bills and they couldn't convert. I think it's stems even further to the coaching staff as well, obviously, but you want to see more out of your superstar in quotation marks quarterback and Justin Herbert is just not delivering. 19:12 I mean we have Kirk Cousins balling out for the the Raiders 3 and O you know, and that was without Brock, Brock Bowers the first two weeks and Herbert, who has the cast around him a great O line, the new OC that's supposed to be the kid genius, Mike Medano, and he still can't perform right now. 19:34 I'm, I think it's, I do expect some positive regression with him, but it's not enough to where I can't, I can't just call him out as being stocked down. 19:46 Speaker 2 Absolutely. I am pretty much all aligned on that one. For me, I think the player or team that's falling, that maybe it's going to fall and and be too gone is going to be the Owen three Texans. I mean, across three games, they've only scored 44 points. 20:03 I don't know that Nico Collins coming back, you know, potentially this week, potentially the next. I don't know that that's enough for them to start winning some of these games. I thought their defense would keep them. Close. This offense just looks so stagnant to me. I thought, you know, we would have a hungry CJ Stroud that's trying to fight for a contract, right? 20:21 He turned down millions and millions of dollars. I thought maybe, you know, he had something left in the tank that we hadn't seen. I don't know that he's shown anything that proves that he should get a contract bigger than what he was offered at this point. So I'm completely out on the Texans right now. 20:37 It's going to take a lot for me to kind of be back on the Texans. I thought there was someone that could go deep this year and, you know, 3, three weeks maybe it's a hot take, but I don't know that they finish above 500 right now. Yeah. And it. 20:53 Speaker 3 With the Texans as well, it raises the question, and it's been the question all offseason with CJ Stroud, is he really the answer? Our quarterback, I know it's it's more deep than that. When it comes to the NFL, it's a whole roster. They have the defense to compete on paper, it's just they're underperforming. 21:10 And then Nico Collins, their best weapon, just cannot stay healthy, and that's continuing to be a problem here in the 2026 NFL season. 21:25 Speaker 2 Definitely. 21:26 Speaker 1 So getting to the next question here, what would you say is the either the craziest moment or craziest stat of of last week there? 21:36 Speaker 3 I'm going to lean into a moment. I thought the Pi call on the Ravens, that should have been CD Lamb for Pi. That was a pretty great. That whole game was crazy to begin with. In Brazil, you know, I've mixed opinions about the international games, right? 21:54 Like the fields are never in great conditions. There's a lot of bad things about it, but there's a lot of good things too. And what better game than that game in Brazil? What was it, 90,000 fans? It was an absolute banger, and that call almost ruined it. 22:13 I thought that was a clear Pi call. It was absolutely dropped. Like my jaw dropped when I saw it. I know that's probably not the traditional answer that you would get here, but that moment just blew my mind, to be honest. Yeah, no. 22:25 Speaker 2 Absolutely. I'm just glad you didn't steal my answer. To be honest, I thought I came with one of the craziest stat lines. The fact that Debo Samuel had 80 receiving yards without catching a single pass is unbelievable. 22:41 You know, he got a lateral from Mike Evans for an 80 yard touchdown. I think it was, it hadn't occurred since like 1950, something like that. You know, most receiving yards without cat quote UN quote catching a ball or or you know, having a single reception on the SAT line. 22:59 Just an absolutely crazy look from Debo. And I do believe, if my memory serves me correct, that you did bet on Debo maybe to score or receiving yards. So I think, I think you got paid on that play actually, yeah. And that's. 23:12 Speaker 3 Why you thought I might snipe it? Yeah, I'm in a I'm in a competition. I also am partnered with Hall of Fame app. They're great. You know, resource for sports statistics. And obviously Casper, you are too. But Hall of Fame app, they, they do an affiliate challenge. 23:29 It's four weeks. So this is the last week. But based off of the odds of your play, you do 2 plays a week Thursday Night Football and then one for Monday slash Sunday. My pick for Sunday was Debo Samuel, 50 yards receiving. It was it was plus 162, which is in the threshold for the most points you can get for your pick in this competition. 23:49 And to see a cash like that was so funny. I actually just loved his receiving yards in general. And then of course he gets no receptions after that. So yes, yeah, probably the luckiest read of my life. Yeah. 24:03 Speaker 2 It was, it was truly unbelievable. I'll, I'll take it for sure. Awesome, awesome. 24:11 Speaker 1 Great answers there. Looking at this next question, what is, you know, something that nobody's talking about that you think deserves a little bit more spotlight? 24:22 Speaker 3 Yeah, that's, that's a great question. I think the AFC North, and I might be a little biased here because I'm a Steelers fan, but the fact that all four teams are two and one after Week 3, I know it's I know it's a long season, right? But I did see the Browns winning against the Panthers personally, after I dug deep into Bryce Young's numbers against the specific scheming of the Browns, I tweeted about it. 24:50 I got blasted on Twitter for it. They're like, no way. Like Bryce Young's been cooking. He's just terrible against man. He didn't have like a terrible game, but it wasn't pretty and it wasn't enough to win. And the just the fact the Browns are two and one, the Bengals defense showing up this year, they're two and one. 25:07 I didn't really expect the Steelers to be two and one at Week 3. The Ravens, I did expect to be two and one. But it just, I don't think a lot of people talk about the AFC North enough right now with especially with the Browns showing up like they are. 25:21 Speaker 2 I absolutely agree. I think they are a tough, tough division. Yeah, I like your answers there. For me, I think something that nobody is talking about is the fact that Brock Purdy has 9 passing touchdowns through three games and he is leading the NFL in passer ratings at 133 guts. 25:41 I've got a question for you. Purdy has the highest passer rating in the NFL right now. Who would you guess is second? I think the. 25:52 Speaker 3 Fact that you're asking me this question, it's either going to be Rogers or Tyler Shuck. 25:58 Speaker 2 Are you locking in one of those answers man? 26:01 Speaker 3 Yeah, why not? I'll lock in shock, OK? 26:09 Speaker 2 I really wish it was. No, this one's going to blow everyone's mind. The second ranked quarterback in passer rating through three weeks is Geno Smith at 110, coming in at the 2nd place. So that is my crazy stats that nobody's really talking about here, and maybe we should be. 26:27 So no, thank you. I. 26:29 Speaker 3 Learned a lot from that and I love that. 26:31 Speaker 2 Absolutely. I love. 26:32 Speaker 3 That That's right. 26:33 Speaker 2 Good friend. 26:35 Speaker 3 Awesome, awesome. 26:35 Speaker 1 Great stat, great sets from, you know, from both of you guys and, and great, you know, points. Last question here for the round table for you guys. What is the best bet that you have that you have made, whether that be this year or a previous year or, you know, just the bet that stands out to you? 26:54 Speaker 2 Well. 26:55 Speaker 3 Casper, you probably know mine by now with Pavin Smith the the three leg Homer that really blew my page up to begin with. 27:04 Speaker 1 Beautiful one. Yeah, that. 27:07 Speaker 3 That was shout out to you on that one too. I'll talk about that here briefly. It was a three like Homer parlay chemist. This was before you and I started talking. It was Pavin Smith, Nick Kurtz and Ryan Velade and I really want to talk about Velade here. 27:24 Casper your model is money for Velade. He he looks a certain way when he goes. It's it's the increasing Homer form. It's when his his form against the mix is green. And if his form is over, I think it's over 52% his home run form. 27:44 He goes I I swear every time. So I saw that and I was like, I have a lot of Pavin Smith was like green on your model before you got called down for like a week straight. And that Homer was his first Homer of the season before and it was his only Homer before he got called down. 28:00 And then Nick hurts. It's Nick hurts, right? He can go any night. So I, you know, my, my wife and daughter were, were already sleeping and Pavin was the last leg obviously at +1000 and it was bottom of the sixth, I believe 2 outs and he hits a moon shot off of the foul pole in right field. 28:19 And I literally screamed like it was so awesome. It was $10 to three-point 4K. So from a longshot perspective, that was the one. And then I think I think the Thursday Night Football four leg anytime touchdown I hit for the Bills game was pretty cool because I had both tight ends on it for the Bills and that blew up. 28:37 And that was just fun. Like NFL has always been my best sport for reading things. I know I'm probably known more at this point for MLB, but NFL is where I really truly cook. It's why I'm excited, you know, for chemist to work with you, Casper, to see what you're going to bring with with NFL. 28:55 So yeah, those those would be mine. Love it. Love. 28:58 Speaker 1 It great answers. 29:00 Speaker 2 For me, I think my favorite bet, I was going week to week here. It's my favorite bet last week was, you know, we were on the pod with Maddie and I just said, you know, hey, I'm going to lock in Christian Watson for my anytime touchdown and then went on to call him as a first touchdown score in Discord. 29:17 Sweating that bet out on my couch. Absolutely awesome. Electric. We don't have to repeat all the things I did going nuts after that hit, but that was absolutely my favorite bet of this past week in the NFL. 29:32 Speaker 3 Awesome, awesome. 29:34 Speaker 1 Mine, I really didn't have a favorite 1. I had, you know, I've, I've done a few NFL ones here and there. I haven't gone super, super heavy with it with, you know, the playoffs and stuff just now starting, you know, that's kind of where my focus is right now. But if I had to pick a favorite, but it'd probably be, well, Luther Burden doesn't count. 29:51 That was this week. What was it last week? I don't even think I did anything in a film last week on on FanDuel actually. But this week I'll count Luther Burden as as mine. That was the most recent one. He didn't hit his 80 yards, but he did definitely hit his over and he I think he put up like 60 yards and a touchdown. 30:09 So that was my favorite look there. 30:13 Speaker 3 Can I shout out one of yours too for sure? 30:15 Speaker 1 Real quick, I loved. 30:17 Speaker 3 Your because it hit your Home Run Derby finalist bet. I don't know how you're not talking about that. That was insane. 30:26 Speaker 1 That was that was a great feeling watching Walker in, you know, at home and everything when everybody's sitting there telling me like, oh, it's over, it's over. He's got one swing left. I'm just sitting there like, Nope, like it like you could just it was an unreal feeling Super. You're a dog for. 30:41 Speaker 3 That to even bet Schwarber versus Walker in the Finals, You're a dog. I love that I. 30:46 Speaker 1 Appreciate it, man. It was, it was awesome. I'm glad that he got that moment for him. He he deserves it. 30:52 Speaker 3 Absolutely. All right, we. 30:55 Speaker 2 Are going to hop into our rapid fire here. Guts just off the Dome. Answer however you want. I'm going to go ahead and get started here. Who is your MVP after Week 3? 31:09 Speaker 3 Week 3 MVP Brock Birdie, you talked about it right now, number one in QB passing rating and he looks excellent. 31:16 Speaker 2 All right, biggest fraud after three weeks. Player or team just. 31:22 Speaker 3 Gonna stick to my guns, Justin Herbert. 31:26 Speaker 2 Who would be your biggest breakout candidate? I'm. 31:30 Speaker 3 Going to go with a sleeper here. I think Ollie Gordon is going to show what he's made of. 31:37 Speaker 2 That's super, super sneaky there. I like it. Let's see here. If you had to take a Super Bowl pick right now, what team are you going to make? 31:47 Speaker 3 Raiders Just kidding. That's I'm going to go. You're going to hate this answer. Probably the Bears right now. I know that's crazy to say, but the fact that they pulled that off against the Eagles with Case Keenum really makes me believe in Ben Johnson as a head coach. 32:04 He's top five head coach for me. It's probably a hot take, but it takes some sort of special coaching to make that happen. I hear it takes. 32:12 Speaker 2 Guts I love it let's see here team you were completely out on is there you know a team outside of the chargers for you team that I'm. 32:22 Speaker 3 Completely outside or that's a great question. 32:27 Speaker 2 I'm going to. 32:27 Speaker 3 Go. I know they just won. I'm going to go with the commanders. 32:33 Speaker 2 Cool. OK, OK, a player that you want to bet on every single week JSN. 32:39 Speaker 3 Touchdown. Love it. 32:41 Speaker 2 And one crazy prediction for Week 4. 32:48 Speaker 3 I think the Browns beat the Steelers at home on Thursday. 32:53 Speaker 2 I don't think that's crazy because that's my pick and I love that. I love that, you know, as a Steelers fan, that you're on that read. So absolutely love it there. I try to keep the. 33:02 Speaker 3 Bias out of it. That's right. 33:04 Speaker 2 I don't with my Saints don't ever tail any Saints picks. Yeah, typically, typically I'm on him on the Saints pretty well as far as reads there just because I live the Saints. But yeah, there's there's definitely bias for me. They're looking into, you know, week for the NFL. 33:22 We wanted to come on here and do a three leg touchdown collab here. You know, myself is the chemist Guts and Casper. You know, let's start with Guts here. Is there a touchdown score you like? It could be a long shot. It could be a chalk. You know, we're going to build a three leg touchdown slip on the podcast, you know, live here. 33:42 So give me one leg that you love for a touchdown, whether it's value or, you know, a chalk. I'm going. 33:48 Speaker 3 To go value for the vibes here, we can easily go chalk with CMC and Derrick Henry looking like absolute locks this week. But value wise, we're talking match up and there's a pattern for him to score, which you both probably know by now. I also look at patterns. 34:03 Michael Wilson for the Cardinals is going to be my leg. He has a great match up and you know you're going to get him around plus 300. I think that's that's a great leg for this. 34:18 Speaker 2 I absolutely love it. Casper, what about you? 34:23 Speaker 1 I am I'm going to look at the Lions. I'm also going to go, you know, a little bit more value. I think that Lions and that Panthers game like what you kind of I think that could be a shootout, a high scoring game. So I'm going to go with Isaac Tesla Plus 470. 34:42 Speaker 2 You're going crazy here. This is going to be an absolute banger when it hits. Give me my guy It plus 200. I just love it. Give me Trayvon Henderson score in that Bills Patriots matchup. 34:57 Speaker 3 This is a fire collab. I just want to say that Tesla, I love Tesla. I love that pick. This is going to be awesome. I love it and more. 35:07 Speaker 1 Awesome. 35:07 Speaker 2 When we slap this and this thing wins, that is going to conclude at the end of our 3rd episode here as we get primed and ready for the week four of the NFL. Guts, if you want to take a moment, you know, we appreciate you being on here. 35:23 Is there anywhere the audience can listen to you or follow you? Go ahead and just kind of plug yourself in and tell our guests where they can, you know, find more of GUTS. Yeah, sure. 35:35 Speaker 3 So the main, the main place for my plays and in my crazy tweets and thoughts is is Twitter X and the handle is at 100 Guts. You'll see a picture of Guts from Berserk. That's my icon. I'm, you know, I'm in the discord, Casper's discord as a Casper capper. 35:53 So all my tweets get, you know, pinged and people tail in there and it's a good time in there. I sometimes, you know, send exclusive plays there as well. I have a sub stack. That's where I do free form writing. I'm doing that for the NFL season. It's what I really enjoy about this is a free form, free form writing articles version of it. 36:13 I just think it's fun just to sit down and really write out the scripts and my favorite props, which I did last night. The article did really well. And yeah, that's where you can find me. And then I just want to get a special shout out to both of you, Casper, you know, you started interacting with me when I was when I was really small in space. 36:30 So it means a lot for me that you took a leap of faith on me. And then chemist, you're killing it, man. I'm super excited to see what you got for the rest of the NFL season. You're already you're already off to a great start. I I love your reads. I love how you post play the days and straights because that's what it's all about. 36:46 So thank you both. Definitely, absolutely it. 36:50 Speaker 2 Was an absolute blast having you here at Casper. If you want to go ahead and give us some closing thoughts as we get ready to go over the week four of the NFL yeah, I guess I. 37:00 Speaker 1 Just want to, you know, thank you for your time, for for being here and, you know, letting us pick your brain. You've got some great thoughts, some great, great opinions and just overall great read. So we love being able to have you here and again, just thank you anytime. 37:15 Speaker 3 Anytime, if you ever want me back just let me know. Definitely. 37:18 Speaker 1 We'll do. We'll be in touch. 37:26 Speaker 2 Man, it was so much fun having guts here on the podcast with us today, Casper. I think it's time we probably transition here into Week 4 as we get ready to dive into the Week 4 matchups. Is there anything going through your head as far as man, last week? 37:43 This game was just absolutely electric. I had a great time watching this. Did any games from Week 3 stand out to you? 37:52 Speaker 1 Yeah, I actually, I think there were a few games that stood out to me. I mean, a Cowboys and Ravens, I mean, it got decided by a field goal. That was the heck of a game. Both teams put up 30 points. Yeah, we lost the game. It is what it is. I really didn't have a lot of faith going into it, but the fact that it was close, you know, I like that. 38:11 I do also want to touch on, you know, the Raiders beating your Saints because you know, I that was it was a great game. My Raiders, you know, I say my Raiders, but I had the Raiders last week. I just had to poke a little bit of fun there. So I do think that's, like I said, that was one of the games I was looking forward and I think it delivered. 38:30 And then the last one here is actually the Steelers and the Bengals. That was another really, really close game. I enjoyed that one. Steelers came out on top. The Bengals offense was not able to, you know, power through. So, but there's a lot of good games there, man, it's tough to pick just one. 38:47 If I had to pick just one, I'm going to go with my Cowboys every time. 38:51 Speaker 2 Man, loving the Cowboys even in defeat is crazy. Yeah, the the Saints put up a stinker, man. They they were in it. They had a massive lead and quite frankly, turnovers just kind of cost us the game. 39:06 So it is what it is. We move on following that. Was there a player that stood out to you or, you know, maybe you didn't watch it at that granular of a level, but did a player or a team stand out to you last week? 39:25 Yeah, man. 39:25 Speaker 1 I mean, I, I, I think it's the same guy that I, that I chose the last time and it's going to be the Jaguars and, and Trevor Lawrence. They played New England this time. I feel like that's a little bit tougher of a team than what they have played. They still put up 35 points, 3 passing touchdowns by Trevor Lawrence. 39:42 And I mean, there's a 1029 rating. So pretty, pretty good. You know, could he be better? Yeah, you can always be better, but like, hey, 35 points and a win there as well. That team's looking good. I like, I like the way that they're that they're trending. 40:00 Speaker 2 Absolutely could not agree more. I think the Jags look very, very solid here. Very last question before we hop into these week, four games through three weeks, is there a division that stands out to you as either they are just a killer or man, this division sucks? 40:19 Yeah. 40:20 Speaker 1 As far as like the, I want to say as far as the good divisions are like, you know, the first part of that question, I, I kind of look more at the AFC side of things, specifically with the AFC North and the AFC West, which I'll kind of get into that here in just a moment. But on the NFC side, not really a team like a a division that's. 40:41 Speaker 2 Standing out. 40:41 Speaker 1 To me, if you will, I mean, I guess you could say the South is kind of garbage, not garbage, but like, you know, not not fulfilling to I mean, I didn't really have high hopes for a lot of the teams there. But like, you know, the Saints, I was I was pretty high on the Saints for coming in here. 40:57 They're one and two, I think that they can still come back and lead a, you know, get a pretty good overall season at the end of it. But on the AFC side, man, the North and the West, those two are just kind of standing out to me. I mean, specifically the Chiefs and the Raiders on the West. 41:12 And then also with the North, I mean, every team in the North is 2 and 1. So I didn't really expect the Browns to be two in one, the other three, I could have seen that at this point. But I think those are some strong divisions there for the AFC side, yeah. 41:28 Speaker 2 Absolutely. Completely agree with you. There's a lot of very interesting divisions here through three weeks. The good news is those divisions that look awful, there's a lot of time left and those divisions that look absolutely electric, there's a lot of times to put up those Saints Tinkers. 41:50 So it will be a very, very fun season. Let's go ahead and transition into the slate for the week four of the NFLI will go ahead, cut a speed run, tell you where I stand, who I like, whether they should win, cover the spread. 42:06 Maybe I take the total points. Casper, go ahead and try to keep track of, you know, my takes and then maybe you disagree with one or, you know, maybe you like my take so much. You're like, hey, I think they're going to win by 14 this week. So let's go ahead and hop into the NFL Week 4 matchups here. 42:23 Starting off, we have these Steelers at Browns. Steelers are favored by 2 1/2 points. Here it is in Cleveland. It is a primetime game. Give me the Browns to cover at +3. I'm going to go alt spread. 42:40 Actually the spread is 2 1/2. So yeah, give me give me the Browns to cover this red here. Colts at Commanders. I think I like the the Commanders to cover here. I had kind of higher hopes for the Colts here with Alec Pierce back on IR. I think the Commanders can get it done. 42:55 We saw with Commanders did last week against the Seahawks. Looking at Titans and Ravens. Ravens are an 11 1/2 point favorite here. I'm just going to take the Ravens to win. I think the Titans could make it spicy. They probably don't, but I think it's worth noting that they could. 43:12 Rams at Eagles. Going into Philly is always hard for a lot of teams. I think the Rams have enough to get it done. They should have Puka back. Give me the Rams either -3 or the Rams money line. I like both of those looks. Jets at Bears? 43:28 Give me the bears -3 1/2. We saw what they just did on primetime. Patriots at Bills. The Patriots looked terrible against the Jags this past week. Give me the Bills to cover 6 1/2 points. I think the Bills easily win that by a touchdown. 43:44 Cowboys at Texans Casper, that is a tough, tough matchup for your boys. I'm going to take the Cowboys to win on the road. Give me the Cowboys as a 2 1/2 point dog. I think they can get it done. The Jags at the Bengals is looking like one of my favorite matchups on the week. 44:02 I could see this being an absolute shootout of a game. With that being said, like you just noted, give me the Jags at plus 2 1/2. I think they can spice things up and or win this outright. So really like the Jags on the road here in this matchup. 44:17 Cardinals at Giants JJ McCarthy did just get signed to the Giants. I don't know that he does play this week. Either way. Giants at homes. I think the Giants at plus 1 1/2 or the Giants to win, depending on the value you can find. 44:35 I kind of like that. Either way, it's probably going to be a trash can game, but sometimes those are fun to watch. So Packers at Bucks is probably one of the more disgusting games this week. I think I'm just going to take the Packers to win. Looks like Baker's going to be out. 44:52 Yeah, just give me the Packers here, Dolphins at Vikings, another kind of nasty one here. I'm going to call my shot. Let's say the Vikings win that and the Dolphins keep it within 11 1/2. Broncos at the Niners. 45:08 Give me the Niners to win at -2 1/2 points. I'll take them as the money line or the spread there. I think the Niners have no issue. Chiefs Raiders is going to be a hard one. I'm that's hard to bet on the Chiefs man, especially against the Raiders. 45:26 But the Raiders have looked really solid so far. Raiders are a 4 1/2 point dog. Just give me the Chiefs to win. Don't have to make things complicated. Chargers at Seattle Seahawks give me the Seahawks to win. 45:41 I also like the Seahawks at -7 this Chargers team is absolutely struggling. Lions at Panthers, This one's a tough one. I've kind of became a Bryce Young fan in the last 01618 months. Now, you know, halfway through last season, I was like, man, Bryce is being hated on. 45:59 He looks decent. He's not playing terribly, Didn't have the best game last week. Give me the Panthers at plus 3 1/2. And finally, to round out the NFL Week 4 line up here, we have the Falcons at the New Orleans Saints. 46:16 Give me the Saints BTA any way they want it. Saints win that. Saints win by 2 1/2. Saints win by 20 1/2. I do not care. The Saints win that match up. And that is the end of our NFL week for slate. 46:33 Casper, what stood out to you there? Yeah, I. 46:37 Speaker 1 Think, I mean, I really agree with a lot of what you were saying, which, you know, I kind of hate whenever I always agree with, you know, there when and, and there's nothing that's kind of different. But I think kind of the things that the Cardinals and the Giants gave, I I feel like if I had to pick, you know, something that would be different. 46:56 I feel like that game could be a coin flip game. I don't really have faith in either 1. I don't really have a motivation to, you know, to place any money on either one, to be quite honest. But like, give me the Cardinals, I guess for, you know, to be a little bit different there. I think that they could win that game. 47:13 I don't think that it's necessarily likely or like you said, that it's going to be a good game. I mean, who knows, maybe it's super entertaining with it being, you know, a trash can game. The Chiefs and Raiders. 47:24 Speaker 2 That game. 47:25 Speaker 1 Too man, I think it's spicy. 47:28 Speaker 2 Yeah, I think it's going. 47:29 Speaker 1 To be fun I I think you're probably right. It's hard to bet against the chiefs. It really is, but the Raiders they look really, really good. Maybe it's just one of those games where the Raiders cover and you know the chiefs went out right I could see that being a a likely outcome there. 47:45 But you know there's some spicy games on this slate. I think you kind of nailed it with the dolphins and the Vikings there too. I don't I don't have a lot of faith in the Vikings. I don't want to say say that they're fraudulent, but they they're fraudulent like, you know, at least I think they are. Maybe I'm in the minority and saying that, but. 48:05 Speaker 2 No, no, I I've heard takes all over the spectrum here through three weeks. The one game that I want to call out that I think could potentially get fun really fast is the Broncos at the Niners. I just, I don't think anyone's talking about the Niners enough right now. 48:21 I have to go on the record and say I was wrong about them. I thought they were going to be kind of a, you know, they'd be an over 500 team this year. But man, they have started out super, super hot. Even with injuries, they're looking great on all cylinders. 48:37 So I think the Niners could easily just put BTA against the Broncos here. I mean, Niners are only a 2 1/2 point dog. I think the Niners could easily, you know, win by 7 or more. So I think that is a super fun matchup. 48:53 Looking through the list, you know, the divisional game, the Falcons at the Saints, Yeah, I, I have to say the Saints win that. I think that could be a shootout very, very quick. I think that could be a high scoring game. I think it could be electric. 49:08 It's primetime. Pinnix really put on a master class against the Packers. Yeah, the Packers have looked like dog water. But yeah, I think the Falcons at Saints, you know, you've got a divisional matchup in New Orleans. Both quarterbacks have looked good. 49:25 Yeah, I love that match up on the week. My eyes will be glued to that game. So that is going to round out our week for lineup, our third episode of the podcast here. Go ahead and make sure to follow myself at the Chemist Bets on X and at the Chemist Bets One on YouTube. 49:47 Casper, go ahead and plug yourself in my man, and then we will go ahead and cut. 49:52 Speaker 3 Definitely. Thank. 49:53 Speaker 1 You chemist for that as far as you know, any any new listeners, any you know, new people that are tuning in here. You can find me on Twitter and YouTube at Casper MLB, as well as Twitter and Spotify at Casper NFL might have some more things, you know kind of in the works there, but stay tuned for that. 50:14 Thank you guys for tuning in and giving us your time. Absolutely. 50:19 Speaker 2 Have a great rest of your day or night, thank you.