June 19, 2026: Trade Uncertainty, Renewable Fuel Policy Continues to Evolve

Today on Agnews Daily. We've gone from an average capacity utilization last year about 50% to well over 70% right now. What that means is enormous demand for additional soybean oil, vanilla oil, animal fats to stillers corn oil, use cooking oil, all the feedstocks that are required and available to produce biomass based diesel. Welcome back to the weekly edition of the Agnews Daily Show. We are once again in the studio and you're looking very festive today. I mentioned that to you earlier. Fourth July is just a couple weeks away. Yes, one of my favorite holidays. Yes, mine as well. It's warm. It's usually nice weather, but will it be nice weather this year while leading up to the fourth rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of the Midwest through early next week, bringing some much needed moisture to some areas of the corn and soybean growing states. A strong system moved through the region on Wednesday with heavy rain and severe weather and another round of heavier rainfall as possible on Sunday, especially across the southern Midwest. Frequent rainfall has improved soil moisture along with cooler temperatures and continues to support crop development, but some areas are getting too much moisture and wet conditions may slow down when a wheat harvest and create some localized flooding concerns. Storms stretching from Missouri into Indiana over the next week could also bring damaging wind, hail and heavy rainfall while much of the corn belt remains in good conditions. Parts of Indiana and Ohio continue to deal with those flooding and replant concerns with some farmers likely to abandon some damaged acres rather than replant them this late in the season. Some market analysts are saying and we had a very bad storm that have swept through a lot of parts of Iowa. I saw grain bins wiped out, fields wiped out, so a lot of bad weather this time of year. Yes, moving on, USDA's latest crop progress report shows corn and soybean development remains ahead of historical averages across much of the country. Nationally, 93% of corn has emerged, matching last year's pace and sitting ahead of the five-year average of 89%. So I've been planting reached 93% complete while 82% of the crop has emerged. Crop conditions also remain steady, USDA rated 68% of the nation's corn crop and good to excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week while 66% of soybeans earned a good to excellent rating. Winter wheat harvest reached 13% complete nationwide, slightly ahead of last week, but still ahead of the five-year average of 25% as wet weather continues to slow progress in some growing areas. We'll be back with more news after this week's tip with Corteva Aggressions. We can talk about controlling weeds and diseases and insects, but one thing that growers can't control is the weather. We haven't figured out how to do that yet, but weather has a huge impact on the pests that are out there and their life cycle and their development. Sometimes weather is going to going to cause us some delays as well, right? If we want to get out there and do something and run into a rain delay, on the other side of that, if we get in some real hot dry weather, it can make controlling weeds more difficult. It can also cause a shift in the pests that we're trying to control due to the environment that's out there, so scouting and knowing what's out there is really important and then what the current conditions are and how that might impact that application and whether we might need to adjust the adjuvants that we're using or the timing of our sprays are really important. And so I think those are things that people need to keep in mind when they're going out there to to make any type of application. And if growers would like to learn more about the products from Corteva that they can use, they can go visit us at Corteva.com/us. Well, Josie researchers at the University of Illinois and agronomists across parts of the of Illinois, Iowa and Missouri are reporting cases this week of rootless corn, a condition where a young corn plants crown roots fail to develop properly. This issue has been observed most commonly in fields that emerge during a narrow window in mid-May, with experts pointing to unusually warm temperatures and several cloudy days during early planting development as some possible contributing contributing factors to that. The condition often goes unnoticed until plants reach the V4 to V5 growth stages and begin leaning or falling overdue to a lack of root support system. Agronomists recommend digging plants to inspect crown root development as affected fields could face an increased risk of lodging, stock breakage and potential yield impacts later in the growing season. While some plants may recover but with favorable moisture conditions, experts say continued scouting is important to be vigilant throughout the summer months, and I saw also tar spot is popping up once again, so we'll be sure to touch on that subject in the coming weeks as well. While we're on the topic of fieldwork, Greg Jones, senior manager for field engineering at Firestone Ag, is encouraging farmers to pay close attention to tire maintenance as spraying inside dressing season continues. Jones says improper inflation is one of the most common causes of unexpected equipment downtime, especially when operating heavy planters and sprayers under changing field conditions. According to Jones, routine tire checks can help improve fuel-lushed efficiency, reduce soil compaction and prevent costly breakdowns during critical fieldwork windows. He recommends regularly checking air pressure, sidewalls, treadwear, and valve stems to catch small issues before they turn into larger problems, so lots to be on the lookout for cleaning. That's a great reminder. I had not thought about all those factors until you brought that up, so I'm glad we reported on that this week, Josie. Some brief market updates before this week's full market update later at the end of the show. Market uncertainty continues as traders are weighing favorable growing conditions across much of the corn belts, alongside strong global grain supplies. John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says weather remains largely non-threatening at this point in the season, which limits concerns about crop production. Heinberg says that attention is beginning, though, to shift toward USDA's acreage report, which will be coming out at the end of June, and will provide an updated look at planted corn and soybean and wheat acres. Following that report, he expects weather and crop development to remain key factors influencing the grain markets through the rest of this season into fall harvest. So we'll be sharing more market updates at the end of the segment today, but yeah, that June acreage report is going to be a big one. US and Mexican negotiators met this week in Washington, DC for a second round of talks aimed at updating the US/Mexico/Canada agreement. Farm groups are urging President Trump and his administration to preserve duty-free agricultural trade while seeking improvements to ethanol access in Mexico. protections for biotech corn and greater access to Canada's dairy market. The talk comes as President Trump signaled that he is not looking to renew the US/MCA, citing trade deficits with Canada and Mexico. Under the agreement, the three countries must approve a renewal by July 1, or begin a review process that could eventually lead to changes or withdrawal. More than 150 agricultural organizations have signed a letter supporting the renewal, citing the economic benefits of North American trade. Canada and Mexico remain the top two export markets for US agriculture, purchasing more than $58 billion in farm products last year. Commodity groups warned that feeling to renew their agreement could create significant uncertainty for farmers and ranchers. During a recent House Agricultural Committee hearing, American soybean association director and Minnesota farmer, Jamie Byer warned that allowing the agreement to lapse would be catastrophic. Industry leaders also say that expanding ethanol blending in Mexico could boost US ethanol exports by as much as $2 billion annually, so a lot happening in Washington, DC, Delhi. And right around the corner, those review processes take a very long time to go through as well, so it sounds like that is likely the future for the US/MCA agreement. Speculation around US Supreme Court decision is expected to issue within the next month as many are watching whether pesticide manufacturers can continue to face state-level lawsuits alleging their products cause cancer. The ruling is drawing attention across the agriculture and chemical industries as it could reshape liability standards for crop protection products use nation-wide. The case centers, of course, on Beyer-owned Monsanto and its herbicide use of Roundup, with the company arguing that federal laws should prevent states from imposing cancer warning requirements when the EPA has determined life estate is an unlikely cause to cancer. This ruling could have significant implications for both pesticide manufacturers and farmers alike. Beyer has already paid more than $12 billion to settle Roundup-related claims, while industry groups continue pushing for legal protections that would limit similar lawsuits in the future. The court's decision is expected in July and will reshape palpesticide liability cases are handled moving forward, so it will be good to have clarity, but a lot of concern and nervousness around what that clarity will be. Josie. Moving on, states in the Mississippi River Basin have surpassed a key federal goal for reducing nitrogen runoff flowing into the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Environmental Protection Agency's hypoxia task force released via press release in the last week. The task force, which includes federal agencies, 12 states, and tribal representatives, works to reduce nutrient runoff that contributes to the Gulf, hypoxia, or low oxygen zone. Courtney Briggs with the American Farm Bureau Federation says that the progress would not have been possible without conservation efforts from farmers and ranchers across the United States and the watershed. While the nitrogen reduction goal has been met ahead of schedule, Briggs says more work remains to reduce phosphorus runoff, including gaining a better understanding of contributions from non-agricultural sources, such as steam bank erosion and legacy nutrients. Josie, thanks for that update, a bipartisan group of lawmakers have introduced legislation designed to expand agricultural workforce training and education programs at community and technical colleges. Introduce June 10th, the Community College Agriculture Advancement Act would create a USDA grant program to help schools develop agriculture-focused education, research, outreach, and workforce training opportunities. The bill would authorize $20 million in funding and prioritize colleges that partner directly with local agricultural operations to provide hands-on learning experiences. Supporters say the measure would strengthen the agricultural workforce pipeline by, of course, expanding training opportunities in areas ranging from production agriculture to farm business management, finance, and accounting. So certainly some exciting piece of news there for our nation's young people like you. Yes. Take advantage of that too. Yes, for sure. I was Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Negh, said this week a recent pseudorabies outbreak has been successfully contained and eradicated. The virus was first detected in a small commercial swine facility in April, prompting quarantines and coordinated responses between the Iowa Department of Agriculture and the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services. Following a second round of testing, officials confirmed that the virus did not spread beyond the original operation. Fewer than 10 swine facilities remained under quarantine during the response, and all have now tested negative and been released. Negh says this successful effort allows both Iowa and the United States to maintain their sub-sudo rabies-free status for trade purposes. That's a mouthful. Officials also emphasize that pseudorabies poses no risk to human health or food safety concerns. I am very glad we get to update everyone on that this week, and we are also bringing up to wait on New World Screw Worm as states across the country are tightening livestock movement restrictions as concerns continue to grow over the spread of New World Screw Worm. The USDA has now confirmed 12 cases of the parasite since early June with all but one detected in the state of Texas. Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota have adapted stricter import requirements, including additional inspections and health certifications for susceptible animals. State officials say enhanced biosecurity and movement controls are critical to preventing the pests from spreading into additional livestock-producing regions. Meanwhile, I bipartisan group of senators, including Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, is urging the USDA to take additional action to contain the outbreak. The lawmakers praised efforts, current efforts, including surveillance and the sterile fly releases, but they say more could be done to protect livestock, wildlife pets and rural economies. The USDA continues to stress the nation's food supply does remain safe, Josie. Always an important update to hear. The USDA is encouraging farmers and ranchers to participate in the 2026 Farm Service Agency County Committee elections, with nomination forms due to local FSA offices by August 3rd. FSA administrator Bill Beam says local voices play an important role in shaping how federal farm programs serve agricultural communities. County committees help oversee the local administration of disaster assistance, conservation programs, community support, commodity support, and county office operations. Eligible producers may nominate themselves, be nominated by others, or be nominated by qualifying organizations. More than 7,700 producers currently serve on FSA County Committee nationwide, and USDA encourages interested farmers and ranchers to contact their local FSA office for more information. I certainly didn't know that that was how the committees were formed, so that is a something I learned today on the podcast. We're going to be learning more about the movement on the energy front recently, as we get into today's interview, talking about U.S. biodiesel, renewable diesel, and how that is going to play out in some policy decisions impacting the future of renewable fuels. Joining us today is Kurt Kovaric, Vice President of Federal Affairs for the Clean Fuels Alliance America. To discuss where the industry stands today, what the updated 45-ZCF-Greet model means for U.S. farmers and the potential impacts of EPA's final renewable fuel standard volumes for 2026 and 7. Let's get into that interview right now. On the last few months, there's certainly no shortage of renewable fuel information and news. According here to the EPA here with me, we have Kurt. That is, he is the Vice President of Federal Affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America. Kurt, thank you so much for joining us here today. Yeah, glad to be with you. Kurt, let's first share more about what's happening in the renewable renewable fuel space and the connection that's Clean Fuels Alliance has with it. Sure. Absolutely. Well, Clean Fuels Alliance America is a National Trade Association that represents the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel producers, soybean farmers, feedstock providers, as well as marketers of the fuel. In our space, primarily around the renewable fuel standard, we've had a bit of a challenging couple of years with the last volume set by the previous administration, the Biden administration that they set in 2023 that covered the years 2023, 24 and 25. We're really lackluster volumes that did not do with the program intended in terms of driving additional market. So 2025 was actually one of the most challenging years that we've had historically. And significantly what the Trump administration released on February, and not hurt me, end of March, set volumes for the current year, 2026 and 2027, and almost 2 billion gallon increase in volume requirements from 2025. Our volume in 2025 was 3.35 billion gallons. The volume that EPA just set for 2026 is 5.4 billion gallons, which is right in line with what the industry asked for. We asked for 5.25 because we know we have the capacity to produce it. We also know that we've got the feedstock available to produce it. And what we've seen in just two months is an enormous ramp up in production. We've gone from an average capacity utilization last year of about 50% to well over 70% right now. What that means is enormous demand for additional soybean oil, canola oil, animal fats, distillers, corn oil, use cooking oil, all the feedstocks that are required and available to produce biomass based diesel. So does that put more demand on all those feedstocks, significantly like where we add, does that help a little bit here with the price on that side too? Absolutely. In March, we set a record demand for or use of soybean oil at 1.28 billion pounds. So we're on track for this year to utilize about 50% of the soybean oil that's available. The other 50% essentially goes into food, which has been flat for a number of years and then other industrial uses. So I look at it this way, and you know, if the price of a bushel of soybeans that a farmer's getting right now is 11 or 11, 11, 30 or 11, 50, a bushel, oil makes up about 50% of that value, even though it's only 20% of that bean. And of that oil, 50% of it is going into biomass based diesel. So if you look at a soybean, we're about 25% of the value of that overall bean because we're using about 50% of that oil. It's huge in terms of kind of rewarding the investments that's been made by the soy crushing industry over the last handful of years. We've seen great expansions and new builds in soy processing. For example, the state of Nebraska today processes 70% of the beans grown in Nebraska are now processed in Nebraska. That's a result of our industry being available to utilize that oil. It reduces dependence on China, the National Oil See Processors Association says a few years ago we were exporting 60%. percent of the beans and processing 40, that's flipped, essentially flipped, so we're processing 60 and export in 40. So what does that mean? We're reducing our reliance on foreign markets, particularly China, to add value to the commodity. We're adding value to that commodity here at home. We're making that high value protein meal available to our domestic livestock industry, and we're adding value to that oil and creating a renewable fuel that's lessening our dependence on foreign oil. It's a win for soybean farmers, it's a win for rural America, it's a win for domestic energy dominance. Now EPA said that thresholds of how many gallons, and it was more than you anticipated, does that have some kind of components to it when you're reflecting upon what does it mean for soybean growers? Yeah, well it means that we're going to have to run full out for the remainder this year. Given the fact that that proposal was finalized at the end of March, we were already three years into the end of the year. So we've, as an industry, we have nine months to meet a 12-month mandate. We're ramping up now, as I said, we were 55% capacity utilization in 2025. As of last month, we were at 70%. I imagine an EPA anticipates that that is going to have to be near 90% utilization. So we're going to make a lot of oil disappear. We're going to add a lot of value to oil. I know it's achievable, but it is going to take a little bit of time here to get those contracts in place, get that feedstock available and turn it into fuel. And certainty, are our processors? Are they feeling more confident than they were last year? Is there still some uncertainty in this sphere of things? We have the most certainty we've ever had. When you look at this RVO, it's a renewable volume obligation being for 26 and 27. Obviously, folks are already thinking about what 28 beyond is going to look like. And I think we are going to need, you know, maintaining these strong signals in 2028 beyond to make additional investments. But the same is true on the tax side. We've got tax policy in place. We've got a little bit of clarity and finality to things that need to be resolved yet. But the clean fuel production credit that was enacted back in August of 2022 was extended in the one big beautiful bill last year through 2029. So we've got some Ford looking policies in place. Now, you know, we've got litigation from petroleum refiners on EPA's final rule on the volumes under the RFS, they're challenging it because they don't like to have to blend more biofuels. So we always have that as a challenge and we'll fight that in the courts and other areas. But quite frankly, when the Trump administration puts Ford such a robust RVO and points to all of the positive impacts that they want from it, that is domestic energy dominance, use of farmer commodities here at home, building out domestic markets for our commodities, job creation, economic activity, all of that is being delivered today just, you know, just two and a half months since it's been released. I can't imagine this administration would go back on at any time soon. And let's talk about that tax credit. Let's talk about 45Z. Tell us about kind of the timeline and the news we had just received last week. Sure. Well, going back to when it was enacted in August of 2022, this, this, it was meant to be a technology neutral tax policy that incentivized fuels that reduce carbon compared to petroleum. So technology neutral, all you have to do is demonstrate your ability to reduce carbon compared to petroleum by a certain benchmark. If you're able to do that, then you get a tax incentive based on that carbon reduction. Unfortunately, we didn't get any guidance from the Biden administration before they left office of January of 2025. In the one big beautiful bill that was enacted by the Republican Congress and signed in the law by President Trump about a year ago, just around July 4th of 2025, it both extended it and improved it. And then finally, on February 4th of this year, we got proposed guidance from the Department of Treasury that went a long way to answering a lot of questions and providing certainty. One thing it did not do was update though the carbon intensity scoring model that fuel producers used to calculate their credit. We just got that update from the Department of Energy this past Friday. Answered a lot more questions. Addressed a lot of the modifications from the one big beautiful bill, including the removal of so-called indirect land use penalties. That really is just a construct of environmentalists who oppose crop-based biofuels as a way to make biofuels look less green than we are. Congress directed Department of Energy to remove that theory from the modeling. And so this update on Friday does that. We now have producers have the ability to enter in all their data. What feedstock they're using, what fuel they're producing, what their energy inputs are and calculate their tax credit value for this per year. With the most certainty we've had since this was enacted back in August of 2022. So as I said, you know, anything can happen. You know, we're still waiting on a key component of this yet is what we call the USDA regenerative agriculture piece. This is a component of it that can feed into that carbon intensity model to make sure that we're rewarding or farmers are rewarded for sustainability practices on the farm, whether that's no-till use of cover crops, reduced fertilizer use, all of the things that farmers are for the most part already doing. This will provide some degree of a financial incentive to continue doing that by rewarding them for commodities through the higher credit value for the fuel. So there is still lots of opportunity for regenerative agriculture, you'd say. I know that there has been a lot of chatter perhaps at the federal level of some cutbacks, maybe of some programs that were connected to the words of sustainability or whatever it might be. You're saying there's still a lot of opportunity that the federal government is investing. Yeah, and what this is is and it was called climate smart ag under the Biden administration. It's no longer called that. It's more around sustainability and regenerative ag, but what we have is it's really a framework that isn't specific to 45(z) in the tax credit, but it's meant to be a framework that can be utilized by states that are implementing low carbon fuel standards or other other federal programs that are trying to measure the sustainability benefit or the carbon reduction benefit of certain agriculture practices. It just happens to be under under construction for utilization in the 45(z) tax credit, but I think it'll be available across a full spectrum of programs if that's what programs are meant to do and that is to reward farmers for these sustainability practices. So yes, our expectation is that that will be final, it's at the office of management and budget right now for final interagency review. We expected to be published as a final rule here yet this summer and to be incorporated into the Greek model and thereby provide that additional potential for higher incentive for the fuel based on the sustainability practices that were utilized during the growing of the crop. Well, Kurt, thank you so much for your time here on Agnews daily. Anything else that you want to mention that we haven't talked about yet and what soybean or corn grower should know? Well, I would just say this, if you're a soybean grower, think about the fact that as much oil is going into biofuels as historically has gone into food and the demand for that and what that means for the bottom line and the contribution that a soybean farmer is making towards energy independence and extending our fuel supply. Today, you never think about it, but today 10% of our our distillates supply is biomass based diesel. That's an enormous amount that if we didn't have, we prices would be that much higher and we'd be that much more dependent upon middle eastern oil for our energy needs. So, great work by the American soybean farmer to deliver higher value product, higher return on the yield so that we can turn that product into a low carbon fuel. Well, Kurt, if listeners want to find more information about clean fuels and about some of this information you're sharing, where is the best place to go? Cleanfuels.org is the best place to go and sign up for our social media updates. We're on Twitter, we're on Facebook, we're on LinkedIn, we're everywhere we're supposed to be. Thank you, Kurt. Appreciate it. You got it. Always glad to be with you. Great to hear Delaney looking forward. What's happening in the markets this week? Well, we already talked about the crop report coming out at later this month, but President Trump signed a 60-day temporary peace agreement with Iran. And questions remain about Israel's support and when shipping traffic will resume through the Strait of Hormuz, which has many driver of markets this week. Certainly soybean demand remains strong, although inflation concerns and a lack of confirmed Chinese purchases continue to cloud the trade outlook. As Ted Seifer had mentioned a couple weeks ago, we're looking for confirmed shipments and we have not seen that yet. Gattle Futures came under pressure as cash markets saw often and consumer demand concerns increased market volatility of futures also declined, but found some support here as well from some overswold conditions. Weekly port export sales, port export sales fell to a marketing year low of 16,000 metric ton, done about 31% from the week prior, and USDA reported some flash sales of soybeans to China for the 26th, 27th marketing year. So that is some positive news there, not as much as the market would like to see. Also some reports to Mexico for some U.S. corn. And as we look at the energy sector, Russian attacks, Ukrainian ports overnight that caused some significant port damage. Ukrainian sources estimate that grain exports could fall 33% from main levels and certainly impacting energy markets, fertilizer markets as well. And of course, this week is a shortened holiday week in observation of Juneteenth. The markets will be closed on Friday, June 19th, we're recording a podcast as of Thursday evening. So the markets have just strapped up for the week and have definitely short up heading into that and they'll reopen as normal on Sunday evening and overnight. That's a quick look at what is going on in the markets this week and a bigger look at what's been going on in the news across the nation. Josie, what do you say for today? We let the people go. Let's let them go. [MUSIC]