Josh Jacobs Placed on Commissioner's Exempt List: MarShawn Lloyd & Kaleb Johnson Values (08/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

This is Fantasy Football today from CBS Sports. >> So what a play! >> Can you believe this? >> It's a no again. >> It's time to dominate your fantasy league. >> Enter the races, play stays on his feet. >> Just got out the distance. >> Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. [MUSIC] >> Welcome to a bonus edition of Fantasy Football today, and a big opportunity for Marshawn Lloyd here. As Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner's exempt list, Adam Azer, Dave, Richard, Jamie Eisenberg, it's Sunday night with this bonus podcast here. My apologies personally for not doing this earlier. And you know, when there is breaking news, you should expect a bonus podcast. My fault on that, but here we are. A green bay, I think Dave gave this stat just the other day, but a green bay running back has finished top 16 per game and non-PPR, top 13 per game and full PPR in six of seven seasons under MATLAF floor. So big opportunity, but we still don't know the timeline exactly. Dave, what does it mean that Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner's exempt list? >> It means he's going to not play football for an undetermined amount of time. He could literally miss zero games. He could also miss the entire season. We just don't know. This is kind of a tool that the NFL has, that to put a player on the sideline without a suspension. And it's very clear that the league now that charges have been filed against Jacobs, the league is taking it very seriously. >> Yeah, Jamie, what's your reaction here? >> I would guess that the NFL has seen the video that apparently is part of the charges, part of the evidence. So that's my guess what led to this decision by the NFL just speculation. But I'd be surprised if they acted the way that they did without a court case being held and a verdict being given or him being without any sort of guilty verdict, I guess. >> Yeah. >> Trying to speak around it. But I would probably anticipate from a timeline standpoint, the court date is November. And if he's on the exempt list, we may not see him until that court date happens if anything is resolved on the court date. So you have to go into the season with probably the idea that Josh Jacobs is not going to play. That's at least the way I'm approaching. I still haven't ranked. It feels kind of gross to have him ranked, even as I think I haven't 44, which would put him somewhere in the round 10-ish range, 44 running back. So like, I get it if you want to take a swing at the fence and hope that he does play and you get what has been a very good player. But it sounds as if clearly the Packers have tried to make other plans by trading for Caleb Johnson. And I would guess, you know, we talked about this last week. I forget it was on CBS Sports Network or on one of our shows here. But that if they had brought in somebody that had a significant name or resume, that would be bad for Marshall and Lloyd. I think this is a good sign for Marshall and Lloyd that he's going to at least get the first crack of being the guy there for Green Bay. All right, so if you're watching the video here, you can see a draft I just did finished about an hour ago. The first draft I've done, obviously, since the news. And the thing is, there isn't really concrete news yet just that he's on the commissioners' exemplest. We don't know a length of the suspension, but I took Marshall on Lloyd, 58th overall, and then Basel Tudorian Price went right after that. Now, please ignore all the other stuff in this draft. There were some auto picks in this draft and whatnot. It's a 10-team league, but Lloyd went ahead of Jacobs. So I took Lloyd 58th and Jacobs, I think, went 65th. Yes, he did. I took him ahead of-- Do you want two more drafts? What's that? You want two more drafts? I had two tonight. Yes. I'd love to know where they went. So the same manager, this is a mix. This is a bunch of friends from college, but a lot of people that are in sports media. And an NFL reporter-- I won't say who-- but took-- both Packers running backs also took Lloyd first. The 10-team league took Lloyd 54th overall and took Jacobs 74th overall. And I made a comment like, oh, you must be crazy to take Josh Jacobs. And again, Guy covers the league. He said, we just don't know how this is going to play out. So that was one draft. That was a 10-team league, and I'll give you a 14-team league where also Lloyd took-- was taken first. That was a 10-team league, the first one. That was a 10-team league. And so was mine. The first one was a 10-team, this is a 14-team league. Jacobs was taken after with-- that type of league, I think, makes more sense at this point. 10-team-- yeah, I was going to make that point. I was more willing. Like, I could see in a 12-team or 14-team league going with Tutton and Price over Masha on Lloyd. But I took him-- and I made it a point. I really wanted to take him in a 10-team format, because I'm riskier in those formats. I'm sure you guys would agree with that. And I looked at your rankings beforehand, and I know that's kind of the area that you had Lloyd ranked. Lloyd and the 14-team league went 79th overall. Ooh. And Jacobs went 91st. OK, all right, so I have a few more questions. But first of all, Dave, we should be clear. I mean, it's entirely possible that Jacobs isn't suspended for a while. It comes off the list at some point. Sure. Any outcome is possible, right? Yeah, and that makes it a little frustrating. And when I say little, I mean really, really frustrating for our purposes and fantasy football and trying to gauge what to expect from this Packer's Run game, and who to expect from this Packer's Run game. The track record of NFL players that are put on the commissioner's exemplest for domestic violence cases is very bad. Four of the last five players who were put on it for this exact reason did not play at all in the seasons that they were put on the list. One includes Adrian Peterson. That was all the way back in 2014. And he was suspended. He was put on the list in 2014. Didn't play it all that year. Cream Hunt is another one that fantasy managers remember from 2018. He was put on the list late in the year because the video of him committing the domestic violence came out and he was immediately put on the list and then the chiefs immediately cut him. It is possible that something similar could happen here if the video is released to the public. I don't know who seen the video whether the NFL has or not, but we know in the police report that a video does exist. That might have been enough for the league. The one player who didn't have his season ended when he was put on the exemplest was Gibral Peppers. And this was recently, this was a few years back. He was on the exemplest for seven weeks. And when he came off the exemplest, it was reported that the league took him off because the six game suspension that is now part of the current CBA was they let him sit on the exemption list a week too long. They felt that it wasn't right and they took him off the list. So that was after seven weeks that he was on the commissioner's exemplest. If you go and look at the Peppers case, he was eventually acquitted. And I can't help but wonder if the league knew that there were some facts in the case that were in Peppers favor. I don't know, this is me just spitballing. And that could be why the league took him off the exemplest. But to your point, Adam, we just don't know. And you can't draft Jacobs with the idea that, "Oh, he'll just miss six games. He'll come right back. He'll be a top 10 fantasy running back." It's possible that that happens, but I would lean against it. These charges seem pretty serious. And I think everything, and we've felt this way ever since the charges were actually filed. If this surveillance video does eventually reach the public, I think it could be really bad for Josh Jacobs, not just this year, but for the years after. - Okay, we'll talk about Marshawn Lloyd and the rest of the Packers Backfield in just a moment will take a quick break on FFT Express. - Okay, if I said it was FFT Express, it's not. It's just regular FFT bonus edition. Marshawn Lloyd was a third round pick, three seasons of 2024, and at the draft ran of 44640 at 59220 pounds, pretty impressive stuff. Had the second best avoid rate in the nation among 160 running backs with 100 or more carries, but he tore his ACL, he missed all of 2020, and he's been injured ever since entering the league. I think he has six career carries. So big opportunity for him. He's obviously the top guy. What we've seen in the preseason is Chris Brooks playing on passing downs and Marshawn Lloyd, basically playing like the workhorse running back. That's just not gonna play on passing downs. There's a lot of those guys. Jamie, how good do you think he's gonna be? And what else do we need to know about the Packers Backfield, which as you mentioned now includes Caleb Johnson, formerly of the Steelers? - My guess is from now until week one, it's sort of an open tryout because I'm sure they want to see what Caleb Johnson has, and I did hear something, I don't remember where, so I apologize, that I believe the Packers had Johnson in for a workout in the pre-draft process. So the thought might have been, at least I think where I heard it, that this was not necessarily completely tied. This was prior to the news, that this was not just completely tied to just the Jacob signing, that they were actually interested in Caleb Johnson. And if the Steelers are gonna cut them, they basically got them for nothing. You know, a very late round draft swap. So I'm sure that this was a targeted move by the Packers. And they made a lot of like depth trades, or a few depth trades, So I traded it back a quarter back today. They made some maneuvers with their roster as most teams did. But I think in the case of Caleb Johnson, this is a huge opportunity for him. So a lot of people sitting on him in Dynasty, you're happy about this scenario unfolding because he was not going to get this chance in Pittsburgh. I think you got to view it as Lloyd is the lead guy right now. I think I did this in a few leagues prior to today, prior to the news happening. I've tried to just pick up Chris Brooks because of March on Lloyd's injury track record. That's not a bad cheap option that you can get off waivers that if you've already had your rookie draft and your rosters are set and your waivers are already running, why not just take a flyer on them just to see. And so I think just looking at Lloyd, I don't know where Dave and Heath put him in, put Lloyd in their rankings. For me he's in that jumbled group of Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Tony Pollard, Commander's guys, the Broncos guys, you can put him anywhere at top to bottom on that list. So anywhere from RB 25-ish to RB 35-ish. What about Tudan and Price going back to? So yeah, I would take those two guys over him right now just because I think they're in a little bit better standing. But the upside, if you want to play the upside card, he's got that same type of ability because as Dave said, six of the last seven running backs from Attle Floor have been top 16 or better. But you got to put the butt there and maybe just the down in the Brooks is the best comparison. You know, talented guy in college, hard time staying healthy, great opportunity. If you're just looking at comparing the two scenarios, one guy's got a proven veteran behind him in Super Hubbard, one guy's got nothing. You know, so if you just want to go with that route, go that route of, okay, I'll take Packers running back versus Panthers running back or Packers running back versus Seattle running back. You know, just or Jackson running back, like clearly the Packers environment is awesome. So however you want to view Mars on like the thing that I just saw fantasy managers don't do and we don't do as well on overrating him is draft him too soon. You know, so if you're looking at it like I'm taking Packers running back, he's not Josh Jacobs. And there still could be another shoe that falls here of James Conner or, you know, early in the season type of scenario of like the Titans are out of it. They want to trade 20 Pollard, you know, I'm just throwing that out there. But like, you know, something along those lines of somebody that could still be on the roster because they are a Super Bowl caliber team. This weekends them tremendously, but this is still a Super Bowl caliber roster that is missing what might be their best offensive player. And so non quarterback. So losing Jacobs could just change how they view everything and they may say, okay, who can we go get? And we still may get somebody else there like, I guess it's bad as I was going to say Aaron Jones reunion because they're not going to trade with an division. But you know, something along those lines of something like that, you know, veteran guy that could still be out of this roster that changes everything. I would also just point out that, I mean, it might sound silly, but there is still a chance Jacobs can play this year. And so if you draft Lloyd and you take him in round five, are you taking him knowing that by week seven or week eight, he's in a part time role and Jacobs is back. I mean, I, if you, but just to stop right there, just to stop right there, if you, if you do that, that's the length of time he's out, I think round five comes into play. I think it's still too early, but like round five comes into play because like, it's, almost like you're taking that freebie of that start of the season, maybe. But the uncertainty around Jacobs, the uncertainty around Lloyd staying healthy, the uncertainty about how much work Lloyd is actually going to have. I mean, I, I agree with you that he's in that 25 to 30 range at running back, but I'm thinking like round seven at the absolute. Oh, wow. I don't know. I think I'm not going to be, I'm not going to get a lot of Marshawn Lloyd. Yeah. I think I am because like I, he's my most roster player because I was taking him so many, well, sure. But when you were taking him, was that round five, round six? Oh, no, no, no. No, I mean, I go back to like the, the fishbowl, my last pick. I was torn, understandably so between the two 49ers running back, backups and Marshawn Lloyd. And I remember, you know, listing out the pros and cons in my head of, there's the, maybe the guys for San Francisco, one could be good. But Jacob's is suspended. Yeah. I could be a monster. It could be great. Easy to take Lloyd. I think I'm going to be easy to do in the double. Just around. If we're in a draft this weekend and Lloyd is sitting there and he won't be even around eight or nine, he's not going to be. But of course, in that type of situation, you'll gladly take him. Yeah. I'm going to be pretty aggressive. I'll just give the, the counter to that. I think he's, I don't love at Minnesota in a week one. But after that, at the Jets, Falcons, at the Bucks, Bears, Cowboys, you know, maybe some of these end up being good run defenses. And I think if the schedule was perfectly fine for him after week one and he could still, Minnesota's past defense was amazing at the end of last year, the run defense was fine. But sorry, just to finish it off. Like you said, even if he only has a limited run, I'm going to assume it's at least six games where March on Lloyd is starting running back for the, for the Packers, I think he's going to be flirting with top 12. I think he's going to be so much better. That was a question I was asking. That's what I think. Yeah. I must start without a question. But you, you don't factor in the injury history there, it'll, I mean, you do, you do but, but, you know, I'm not taking them in the third round. I think, I think Tudent and Price are tough ones, especially Price, it was Charbonne starting on Pupp. But then after that, I mean, it's Patriots, Steel, it's all these guys in committees, like big time committees. And I'm absolutely taking Lloyd ahead of anybody, including Jonathan Brooks, which I took both of them yesterday. I am sure of today. No, I'm listening. I'm over the committee, guys. The reason I said 25, that's where I put him. So he's behind Tudent and Price. He's ahead of Ramandre. He's ahead of Brooks. He's ahead of the commanders, he's at, you know, I think once, once you get to round six at running back, I think round seven, just overall, like that's where you start taking upside plays. Yes. And that's the type of upside play to your point. Like, I don't think top 12 is realistic if he's not going to play on passing down. I do. But top 20 is realistic, just given the fact of the offense that he plays in and the fact that he could be their goal line option. Look, Jacobs, by the end of last season, playing through injury, not explosive, clearly was not the same guy. And so I think just knowing that they've been waiting for this guy in terms of March on Lloyd to have some semblance of a role, not the lead role, but to have a role to inject some speed into the backfield to maybe, you know, offset some of Jacobs, maybe getting too much work and wearing down like we saw last season, like they were waiting for this kid to be healthy. It's why they stuck with him. They could have easily moved on at any point or found somebody else. And so allowing a manual Wilson to walk, sticking with, okay, it's Lloyd and Brooks. And then waiting until the 11th hour with the roster being set to just go get Caleb Johnson, that's a pretty good indication. I think what they think of Lloyd. So it's the hope that he's that guy. But at the same time, if Caleb Johnson looks amazing, I'm just not good at that. No, but I mean, look, the Steelers thought he could. We all fell off because of opportunity, you know, but but he's like Lloyd's going to get the first chance here without question. You just hope he doesn't struggle, yeah, you hope he doesn't struggle in a week one. I actually remember the same team. Oh, man, I want to say it was Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones. One of them started the year with a two game suspension. I don't think it was Jones, whatever it was. And I just remember the backup guy had such a tough schedule already had such an easy schedule, the first thing, whatever. I think it was such a tough schedule. I shouldn't be talking about this. I don't remember all the specifics, but I I hope he gets off to a good start as somebody who's going to be aggressive drafting Lloyd at Minnesota and week one's a little bit scary. But if they just stick with him, he's their best option right now and Packers is a they're just a great offense for for fantasy. And there's another angle of this because we'll wrap it up and this is a long bonus pot. Another angle of this, I think we'll talk about tomorrow is you've got to figure this team is more pass heavy now than they've been the last two years and hope they have been. And that is huge for Watson. I mean, I did some math today. If you gave Christian Watson a hundred a 20% target share on Jordan Loves pass attempts three seasons ago before they got Josh Jacobs, give him a 20% target share and he was blowing that away last year down the stretch, but just give Watson a 20% target share. That's 116 targets. Well, Christian Watson would do with 116 targets based on his career catch rate yards for target and touchdown rate would be 14.3 PPR fantasy points per game, which is basically what Nico Collins average last year. And even a great year for receivers year before it's still a round top 24. And that's just with a 20% target share. So I mean, the possibilities for the passing game are so much better now. And I think that's exciting too. So we'll talk about that tomorrow. But we'll end this fun right now. I'll win. Well, over the last two years, they've been exactly 50 50 in pass and run 634 plays were love is on the field and Jacobs is not the Packers are 61% pass. Wow. Yeah. I mean, that's a little deceiving because he'll come off the field on like a third and long or something like that. Sure. But I even have it on first and second downs, 52% pass. Okay. See first and second downs in the first three quarters, 54% pass. Those aren't amazing. Certainly not as eye opening is 61% you're right, the third downs obviously are a factor. But the the mere fact that when Jacobs hasn't been there, they have at least leaned into Jordan love throwing a little bit more encourages me to a degree. And I think that this is the exact right time for them to let Jordan love cut at loose. And Jamie, you brought up one last point that the fact that there's no Michael Parsons for the first four. four weeks, that really hurts their D6. That's going to force them. Yeah, you're right. That's going to hurt them. Well, they play Dallas in weeks X, right? No, it's four weeks per person. Right. It's for sure. Right. I think he wants to be back for that Dallas game. So he might even miss five games, but bottom line is this is going to be a team that might actually like take to the air to begin the year. And that's very exciting for Jordan Love. And they might stick with it all year long. If Jacobs doesn't come back, Lloyd is just okay. You can see the pathway. It's not just Watson being good, but Matthew Golden certainly Tucker craft. Wow. He with his low A dot, man, we're talking about somebody who could really rack up catches if they can't run the ball. You also have, I mean, this might be the most offensive offensive friendly division. Lions good. Bear is now good. Viking should be much better. Like and only one of them as a defense. Yeah, on paper. Yeah, I mean Detroit's got eight conscience and that's dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, go back. Go. Yeah. That's basic. It's weird to have that feeling after this Josh Jacobs injury, but running the ball is bad for fantasy. Basically passing it is great. Even for running backs, even for running backs as they'll catch him on first and second. Sure. Yeah. I mean, I can think of a couple of running backs at the top of drafts that are really good at running the ball. No, no, I'm just saying that teams that pass a lot are going to be better for fantasy than teams that run a lot, I think. Sure, because there's more. Yeah, I mean, I get what you're saying. I just don't want to act like running backs or meaningless. No, no, I wasn't saying that at all. You're meaningless. Yeah. Okay. I will end it at that. And there he is. The weird out of mazer insult. Yeah. Okay. We'll talk to you tomorrow with some right risers and followers in our rankings, or whenever we'll talk to you on Monday, whenever you happen to hear this podcast. Thank you so much for those of you who stayed up and watched it. See you later. This is just the beginning of the story of Hampton Square!