Joel Klatt’s Favorite Over/Under Win Total Bets for the 2026 Season

I've got some overs, I've got some under, so let's get after it. I just can't guarantee that Notre Dame is going to go undefeated. Wouldn't shock me at all if that's a six win team. All he does is build a good solid offensive line. I'm going to bet on Lane Kiff and he did a heck of a job. I can't get them to three losses, not this program, not this head coach. Hey, welcome into the program. I'm Joel Collat. This is the Joel Collat Show and this show is brought to you by graduate by Hilton. We thank them for their support as always and we roll on here through the summer months of the offseason, getting you all set for college football here, 2026. Here's what I wanted to do today. I'm looking at some of these win totals over unders around the country. And I'm going to talk about some of these totals that that stood out to me. And I'll give you a bit of a prediction here on some of these teams that, you know, I've got some overs, I've got some under. So let's get after it right away. I'm going to start not necessarily in particular in a conference, but just two teams and this number stood out to me because both of them have the same number. And we think both of these teams could compete for a national title. I thought that these numbers were a little low and then you take a little bit of a look and you dig a little deeper and you realize, say Vegas knows what they're doing. So these win totals are probably pretty accurate. Both Ohio State and Texas are at nine and a half right now. Okay, so it seems low because both of these teams you would think are going to win double digit games. But let's take a little bit of a deeper dive into this situation. Why are they at nine and a half? What could go wrong? Do we feel either direction on these programs, unders or overs? Well, they're going to play obviously for the third straight year. They played that great national semi final. Then last year in Columbus and now we're going to have this game in Austin this year and week two. They're win totals. I think are largely dependent on this game, right? Like whoever wins this game is going to have a great chance to hit the over nine and a half. There's no doubt. So without necessarily making a prediction on this game, let's take a little bit of a deeper dive into what they have in the rest of their schedule that could prevent them from hitting the over if they were to lose or even if they won the game. I think both have this difficult schedules, but Texas is more difficult. I think you look at this schedule and it's one of the more difficult schedules in the entire country. So I'm looking at both of these teams. Let's start with the buck ice Ohio State games after the Texas game. They're going to have road games at Iowa. That's never a cupcake. Just ask anybody in the big 10 that goes to Kinect Stadium. That's a tough one. They're going to have Indiana. They're going to have USC both of those teams very good in their home stadiums. In particular, Kurt Signetti, who's undefeated at Indiana at home. USC has been one of the better home teams in the country. In the last few years under Lincoln Riley. And in fact, not many teams have success going east coast to west coast within the conference schedule. So that's a difficult game on the road. And then they still have home games against Oregon and Michigan. So again, very difficult for Ohio State after that Texas game. Now they could in theory lose to Texas and still get to 10 wins. All right. I think that that's open for them because then you would only have to have one more loss in the remaining five difficult games that I've pointed out right here. So there is a path. Now if they beat Texas on the road, then I would for sure take 10. Now here's the other part of this history. And Ohio State has one of the great histories in college football certainly. But in particular, in recent vintage, look at what they've done over the last few years. They have one 10 plus regular season games in 13 straight full seasons. I throughout the COVID year, obviously, they couldn't get to 10 in that year. They didn't even play that amount of games, but it goes back even further than that. 18 of the last 19, they've won 10 plus games. The only year that they didn't over that stretch was the Luke fickle year. After everything happened with Jim Trezel right before Urban Meyer, this team and this program, more specifically, they get to 10. So I have a little bit more confidence. Regardless of what happens in that game on the road against Texas, that they can get to 10. History would suggest that the infrastructure is there for this program. Ryan Day is there. They're going to solve whatever they need to solve with eight new starters on the defense. We know or we think the offense is going to be spectacular. All those returning offensive lineman Jeremiah Smith on the outside, Julian Saiyan back as the incumbent starter at the quarterback position, they have enough even in a loss where I could say, you know what, they're probably going to get to 10. So for me, Ohio State's going to be in over. Now let's dig a little deeper on Texas. If Texas wins, they're in a better position to hit the over, but if they were to lose that game, it gets dicey because the rest of their schedule is so difficult. Again, I think one of the more difficult schedules in the entire country, they could really struggle to get over that night and a half. They would only be able to lose one of the following. This is if they lost to Ohio State, they would have to play at Tennessee. They've got to play Oklahoma and Red River. They've got a whole host Ole Miss with Trinidad Chamblis. They've got to go to LSU. They've got to go to Texas A&M like that is very difficult. Now similar to Ohio State, but very difficult. In particular, those two road games in November in Death Valley and then down in college station. Like that's going to be difficult. If they lose to Ohio State, I'm definitely on the under. And here's the thing. Even if they beat Ohio State, there's a path where they don't get to 10 wins. Depending on what happens with injuries and throughout that schedule, some of those road games, the neutral with Oklahoma, I think it's more difficult for Texas even in a win than it would be for Ohio State. So the fact that that game is a coin flip and they have that difficulty afterwards, I think I would sit on Texas hitting the under this year, the nine and a half. So both programs of Ohio State and Texas have nine and a half win totals. I'm going to go over with Ohio State, banking on their history. And I'm going to go under on Texas because of the remainder of that schedule after that game in week two. I think it could be very difficult. Now listen, neither of those are safe bets. But that's where I would lean in this one. And again, I think both of these teams would make the playoffs. And even if Texas were to be nine and three with that schedule, I do believe that they would end up going to the college football playoff. Not guaranteed, obviously, but I think they would go. By the way, they would still have Florida, Missouri, like tricky games on that schedule when you're talking about going weekend and week out. Remember this year, we're starting a week later. So we only have one off week. So we're not going to have a ton of off weeks this year. You start to go back to back through that SEC schedule. It's going to be very, very dicey. So what's my pick? Ohio State on the over and Texas on the under. Here's another one that's not conference specific, but it's Notre Dame. Notre Dame's win total is 11 and a half. Now that that's just a big number. Normally you get these teams and the highest you're going to get is 10 and a half. Because at 11 and a half, you're telling me you have to go undefeated. I mean, it's tough to go undefeated. There's no margin for air whatsoever. You can't lose a football game. The schedule is soft. There's no doubt. Do we think that Notre Dame's going to be one of the best teams in the country? Absolutely. I've got them number two in my post spring top 25 poll. Are they for sure going undefeated? I don't know. I think it's going to come down to three difficult games. Really, the three toughest games on their schedule at BYU and listen, say what you will about the big 12 BYU at home in pro vote. That's going to be a difficult game. You've got Miami at home and you've got SMU at home. Here's the thing about Miami. I think at best, that's a coin flip for Notre Dame. I don't think you can say they are definitely better than Miami. And we might get to that point and say, hey, Miami found everything they need to find on the offensive and defensive line to replace what they just lost in the draft. And they are just as good or maybe even better. Now, it might be difficult to be better. But what if Mensa is just like outstanding? We've seen transfer quarterbacks. Now in several years for Miami, go in and play well right away. We saw it with Cam Ward, we saw it with Carson Beck. I would expect, in particular, with the way that they like to run the football, own the line of scrimmage. They've got five five star guys, five that are replacing those guys on the D line. Five former five stars. They might be just fine on the defensive line. So at best, that's a coin flip and you still have SMU. You're telling me you cannot lose a football game. You get the wrong injury at the wrong time. You get a quarterback that goes down in the middle of the third quarter. Hopefully it doesn't happen for CJ Carp, but what if it does? What if their run game doesn't pan out? And this is just a throw-oriented team. And you get into a throw game. Maybe it's bad weather and you lose one. Again, doesn't mean Notre Dame's not going to the playoff. They're almost certainly going to go to the playoff, but they've got to go undefeated to hit the over at 11 and a half. So for me, my pick is going to be under. Under for Notre Dame, 11 and a half is just too steep. I just can't guarantee that you're going to go undefeated. That's, that's, that's wild. It's so difficult to do that. So difficult. By the way, BYU is 23 and four over their last two years. 11 and one at home. That's a good football program. They're going to be physical. You never know what could happen. And then those games late in November. Miami and SMU, both of those at home. So Notre Dame, for me, I think that that's an under. All right, so now what I want to do is go through each conference and what I want to do is give you a couple of teams that I think are good over bets and then a team that right now at least in the off season, I'm looking at an under for them. Let's start in the big 10. I'm high on what Bob Chesney is doing at UCLA. Their win total is five and a half. They've got an experience quarterback in Niko Yamalayava, 25 starts. They've got two group of five teams. They've got a big 10 schedule that doesn't scare me. They've been infused a ton of talent. They've got all these guys coming over with Chesney from JMU, from an assistant coaching perspective. So here's their easiest games. I would say San Diego State, even though San Diego State is pretty good. They've got Purdue. They've got Maryland. They've got Wisconsin. They've got Michigan State. They've got Nevada. Like I can get to six pretty quickly with UCLA. And again, this is a team that we saw last year had enough juice to beat Penn State. They've got their quarterback back. I think they're going to have a lot better roster. I think they're going to have more continuity within their staff and their head coach, Bob Chesney. So I think UCLA is the first one that jumped out at me. I saw five and a half and I immediately before even looking at the schedule thought to myself, that seems light. I'm going to take the over there UCLA for me the over. By the way, I'm looking at those games. If they win those six, you hit the over and then there's some coin flip games. You've got Cal and the opener at Minnesota home against Illinois, Illinois traveling west, rivalry game against USC. There's a lot of avenues for UCLA to hit that over and I think that they're going to do so somewhere. A Bruin has given an eight clap right there. Here's another one. How about Michigan State? No Michigan States total is three and a half. I mean, like, Pett Fitzgerald knows how to coach. I get it. I know that they don't have a ton on their roster, but he's a real football coach and three and a half is very low. I'm a huge believer in Pett Fitzgerald. I have been for a long time. He's used to finding ways to win. It's not like this guy was just loaded with talent and one because of that. He needs to rebuild the roster in order to win. He's one with rosters that aren't as good as the opposition. He kind of specializes in that if you will from his time at Northwestern. So now he's in East Lansing at a program that has a good infrastructure, a lot of support. And he's a heck of a football coach. So now you look at their easiest games. Remember three and a half, three and a half. So can we get to four? They've got Toledo and Eastern Michigan. I think those are wins. You've got Nebraska at home. Who knows what Nebraska is going to be? You've got at Wisconsin as they're trying to rebuild under fickle. You've got Northwestern at home. You've got at Rutgers. Those are six games. You tell me all you needed to go is four and two. Two wins right out of the gate against Toledo and Eastern Michigan. So they just have to find two more throughout the rest of the schedule. Like they can do that. Pett Fitzgerald can do that. They will get to four if not five or six. I think that they have the potential to upset UCLA, the home game against Illinois. Who knows what Illinois is going to be without Luke Altmeier. You know, they're going to take a step back. At least I believe this year under Brett Bielema. So Michigan State for me, that's a good over right there. Three and a half is just too low. How about an under in the big 10? This is hard. In particular, and it's hard in every one of these conferences. I don't love, you know, trying to pick an under but if I had to pick one, I'm looking at these win totals and one popped out to me and I'm like, man, I know the easy part of their schedule is is or excuse me, the first part of their schedule is easy, basically the first half. But if you stub your toe at all in that first half, their back end of their schedule is very difficult, almost relentless. Nebraska is a six and a half. That's their total. They lost Dylan Royola to the portal and all American running back Emmett Johnson to the draft. So they get UNLV quarterback Anthony Kalandry. He comes in lots of experience. 30 starts. He's a dual threat guy. Nebraska was last in the big 10 in high school recruiting rankings, which was a bit shocking this past off season. It was a small high school class, which affected it, but still like they should be higher than that on the recruiting rankings. There's no doubt the schedule lines up for them early. I already referenced that the Huskers usually get off to a hot start. I think they will get off to a hot start. They could be five and oh, with three lower level non-conference games in the Michigan State Maryland to open big 10 play. But if they stub their toe at all, look at the back end of that schedule, Indiana, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Ohio state at Iowa. I mean, where are the wins? Where are the wins? They're last seven or it's so difficult. They've got to go to Rutgers. That's not a bargain. Five of those teams are going to be in my top 25 from the spring. So, you know, Nebraska basically has to be perfect early. Then still find a win late through that stretch. That's why this, this path to me is just a little murkier than most. Nebraska has had bad second halfs in a lot of their seasons in the last few years. Last year, they lost three of their last four in 2024. They lost five of their last six in 2023. They lost their last four. You know, so there's precedent to this. So my pick on an under in the big 10 would be Nebraska. I think six and a half, although pretty accurate from Vegas, I think that there's a path where they're, there's an under there. Alright, we go to the ACC. I look at the ACC and I look at the favorite Miami and they're sitting at 10 and a half and I'm like, okay, you're telling me Miami only gets to lose one game in order to hit the over Notre Dame. Alright, coin flip, coin flip. I already talked about that when talking about Notre Dame. They're going to be really good Miami is. I already mentioned this, but they've got those five former five star players replacing those talented NFL players on the defensive line. Mario, Christopher, all he does is build a good solid offensive line. We know that now they have to play better and big moments. And I've talked about that during the course of the off season, but he's built something in the trenches that I think is sustainable. This is a program that's going to be built on the trenches and they will be again, they're going to have a monster talent advantage in almost every single ACC game. So I'm not nervous about any ACC game and you're telling me you only have one coin flip on there. They're getting wins all the way to 11 and then you've got one coin flip and your win total is 10 and a half. They're better than Clemson. They're better than Florida State. I think it's a coin flip with Notre Dame. They are better than Virginia Tech. I get it. I get it. The history would suggest that they're going to lose a game that they shouldn't lose. Louisville at home from last year jumps out obviously SMU on the road last year. They had that bad. What was it? Personal foul roughing the passer penalty late kind of led to that loss. But I believe that this team is going to be better and more suited for the big games because of their run last year of the national championship game. So I'm going to take the over 10 and a half for Miami. Again, the huge talent gap. You can get them to 11 pretty easily. That's an over then you have a coin flip. That's one more. So the the path for Miami's over is pretty clean. Another over Rhett Lashley's done an amazing job at SMU folks amazing job. SMU's total is only eight and a half. They've won 20 games since joining the ACC two years ago. Kevin Jennings back for year three as a starter. Just had him in the bowl game. I think that's a program that has recruited well. Rhett Lashley is a heck of a coach. He was going to have strong interest from Arkansas when they made their change early in the season. SMU in a very smart fashion tied him up long term with a long term contract. If you look at their toughest games, how do you get them to nine wins? All right. Well, their toughest game September 7th at Florida State. They've got September 19th at Louisville. I think those are really difficult. I think Virginia is decently difficult Virginia tech decently difficult. I would give them wins in both of those games and then you've got at Notre Dame. Again, all you need to do is get to nine. You can lose three games and still hit the over with the eight and a half number. So for me, SMU and their history over the last two years with Rhett Lashley suggests that they're going to get to nine. There's an easy path to do that. They might get to 10. This is a team that could potentially be in the ACC championship game. They could absolutely make a playoff run season opener at FSU. They've got all off season to plan for that one. If they beat FSU, then they're well on their way. At Louisville is a tough one. Obviously Notre Dame is a tough one. But I like the over right here with SMU at eight and a half. All right. How about an under in the ACC? Cal is six and a half. I think that that's a big number for Cal. They've got to get to seven wins. So you got to dig a little bit on Cal. Tosh Lupoy is in his first year as a head coach ever. We're able to hold on to Saga Palaité. Gosh. I don't know how to say this kid's name. Song of Poulot Tele, Gowley. This is just this is embarrassing. That's how you know it's the off season. I was able to say it pretty well last fall. And I've just lost my ability to do that. Don't worry. I'll be back this fall. They did lose their star linebacker to BYU. and then you start looking at their schedule. If they lose to potentially UCLA, Clemson, Virginia tech at SMU, North Carolina state, Virginia, these are all games that are going to be really tough for Cal. A lot of those are tough travel wise. You're going all the way over to the East coast. Got to go all the way to Texas to face SMU. If they lose those six, it's an under. If they lose five, they have no margin for error with their other five games and you start looking at this and you're like, okay, brand new head coach, like there's a path for an under right there. So if I looked at the ACC and I looked at these wind totals, I would say Cal is an under six and a half. By the way, deepest apologies about the pronunciation. It's just I'm terrible at it. It's actually like I'm woefully terrible at pronunciations. I have to practice on Friday nights with the phonetic spelling just so that I don't butcher names on Saturday. And I end up butchering names on Saturday. It's it's a huge pet peeve of mine. I hate that I do that. And so apologies right there. We move on to the SEC. How about Georgia at nine and a half? Seems a little low for Georgia in particular when you look at their SEC schedule. I've said it before. I think that Georgia has one of the softer SEC schedules as SEC schedules go. It's not a soft schedule. But if you look at within the conference, it's not as difficult as others. Kirby has eight straight full seasons with 10 plus wins in the regular season. Ohio State and Georgia are one and two on longest streaks right now. Next is Oregon at three. So again, you're looking at track record here. Is Georgia going to win 10 games likely, likely? They, they're going to have to lose a shocking game to go nine and three. A shocking game. You've got OU at Bama, Florida and Atlanta. At Ole Miss, Missouri, at South Carolina. I just I can't get them to three losses. Not this program, not this head coach. Again, you would have to lose a game that we're all like, wow, Georgia lost to who? They don't do that typically. I know that they have struggled sometimes on the road. They can get uninterested at times on the road. But again, like nine and a half is a low bar for Kirby smart and Georgia. And the schedule is in their favor, at least in relation to other SEC schedules. So Georgia for me is an over nine and a half. What about LSU at eight and a half? Don't you think that's a little low? I think LSU eight and a half is a little bit low. They got to get through their tough September. I think that they go three and one in their September. Their September, their three tough games are Clemson, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M. I think they can win two of those games. I really do. Then they've got tough games in November, Alabama, Texas, at Tennessee. They might only have to win one of those to get the nine. I think Lane Kiffin is going to do a really good job at LSU. They're going to be, let's just play this out, thought experiment. We turn on the TV and LSU is playing Clemson to open the year. There's a really good chance that there's a wide talent cap there and that LSU is a team that we're like, oh, wow. We kind of saw this last year with Texas tech and it's like, wow, do we want to believe that all this new talent was really going to materialize and guess what it did? I think we're going to have the same reaction with LSU and when you say it like that, there are not four losses on that schedule. They're really aren't. So over eight and a half for me seems like a good bet. I'm going to bet on Lane Kiffin. He did a heck of a job at Ole Miss. I think he's going to do a great job at LSU. I understand why he left there. Listen, the whole thing last year. Yeah, I thought Lane should have stayed at Ole Miss. I didn't love the timing of him leaving his team right before the playoffs. That being said, he's in a great position right now. They've infused that program with a ton of support, a ton. Probably the most expensive roster in the country. I think there's going to be a big talent cap when they face teams like Clemson, Ole Miss. There might be a big talent cap when they face Tennessee. There might be a big talent cap when they face Alabama, right? Like I don't know about Alabama. So LSU for me is an easy over eight and a half. Hey, class show fans. If you follow this show, you know that the college football calendar literally never stops between breaking down film, analyzing rosters and getting ready for the next big matchup. 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They've got at Auburn at Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama at Florida in the swamp, Tennessee. They also have NC state at Kentucky. Kentucky might be a lot better under Will Stein, at Mississippi state, not Jimmy's necessarily. They're obviously going to win some of those games, but they've got to get to seven. And you lose that much for a program that I believe is a program that's going to have to go down in order to go back up. Sustaining a level of greatness at Vanderbilt is going to be tough to do. There's no doubt they lose too much. I'm going to be on the under Vandy at six and a half. Give me the under. We go to the big 12. Arizona seven and a half. I believe in Brent Brennan. I think he's a heck of a football coach. I believe in Noel Fafida. He's one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the entire country. He was the best quarterback in the big 12 a year ago. 34 career starts. They hit the portal to reinforce what they lost on defense. They also like a lot of the young guys. I had them in the holiday bowl. They spoke highly of some of those young secondary players and they played better in that second half against SMU. You look at their schedule. They need eight. They can only lose four games. You can get there at BYU is a tough game. There's no doubt. You've got TCU. You've got Utah. You've got Kansas State, Arizona State. That's their November schedule. I think that they're going to need one of those games to get to eight. They will win one of those games in November to get to eight. And for me, Arizona is an over. Their total is seven and a half. I believe at a minimum. That's an eight and four football team. We go same states. No, I'm sorry. We stay in the big 12 is what I was trying to say. Oklahoma State five and a half. Okay. So this is going to be similar to UCLA where there's going to be an infusion of energy. You've got all these transfer players that have played really well at a lower level that are coming in from North Texas. And I kind of like it. Eric Morris brought Drew Mestemaker, the nation's leading passer. Caleb Hawkins. They're running back. He was fifth in college football and rushing last year. First in rushing touchdowns. They brought in Wyatt Young. They're wide receivers, third in college football and receiving yards. North Texas led the country and scoring and total offence a year ago. They can do that in the big 12 maybe not leading the country. But this is going to be a really good football team. And that total is low five and a half. I know that the bar is as low as far as what they want a year ago. They reached the American championship game last year at North Texas. They won 12 football games. This feels just like Bob Chesney going to UCLA, just like Kurt Signetti going to Indiana. Eric Morris going to Oklahoma state with with everything that he can do as a coach and that entire roster with a chip on their shoulder. This is a team that can absolutely win six football game games. Here's their easiest games are these the six wins. They've got at Tulsa, Marie State, UCF, Colorado, at Iowa State and Kansas. They wouldn't need any other wins other than those right there to hit the over. And now all you got to do is steal something elsewhere. They've got other opportunities for road wins. They've got at West Virginia. They've got that cans of state at Arizona state. To me, this is an easy over with what they're bringing in similar to UCLA. This is the Kurt Signetti to Indiana. I think we're going to see a couple of versions of that at UCLA and Oklahoma state. So for me, Oklahoma state is on the over. What's up, Clash Hill fans? I don't know about you, but I'm always looking for the best deal on tickets. And it's clear to me that seat geek is the answer with over 35 million downloads. Seat geek is the number one rated ticketing app. There are more than 70,000 events listed like concerts, festivals, sports, and more. 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Obviously they lost like their entire program and I get it. But five and a half like that's that's too much for me. Iowa State lost all of their players. They lose Matt Campbell. This is a program that yes is a proud program. But when you look at this league, remember all these teams are bunched together and you've got to get to six wins. I don't I just don't see it for Iowa State. So five and a half is a bit too rich for me. But again, I'll say this again, I hate to see this happen to that program. It's I'm a fan of this program, but this year is going to be tough for Iowa State. I would have set this at four and a half as soon as I'm off by by a full game like that. I think to myself, okay, this is an easy under right here. The path for under is far easier for them than the path to over. There's no doubt about it. So Iowa State, even though I hate to do it, they're going to be my under team in the big 12. Okay, if you haven't subscribed to the show, you should do that on YouTube. 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