Jerry Vinci - Improving Senior Living Facilities For Families & Operators

Welcome to Prop Tech espresso. My name is Mark Hurst, the former investment banker and serial startup junkie turned real estate technologist. On each 15 to 20 minute episode, you'll hear from leading entrepreneurs and industry experts on the opportunities and challenges for the rapidly changing Prop Tech sector. Thanks for listening today. Grab your favorite beverage and let's learn something. Welcome to my guest today is Jerry Vinci, founder of CCR Growth, a demand generation firm that helps senior living operators build predictable, sustainable occupancy. A serial entrepreneur and operator with almost 30 years in the senior living space. He also co-founded and is an executive at Nordon. The first independent diagnostic firm built for investors and capital allocators underwriting senior housing. Jerry earned a BA in graphic design from Moravvian University and his MBA from Florida Institute of Technology. Jerry, welcome to the show. Hey Mark, thanks for having me. Well excited for our conversation today and as you and I discussed, you are my first expert in the senior living space. So I know there's a lot to uncover and educate the audience on. But we're going to start out with my traditional prop tech espresso question, which is how do you find prop tech? And since you've been in and kind of touching this space for a while, I'm interested to see if you've seen any evolution in the definition during your time in this space. Yeah, no thanks for the question and thanks for having me on the show appreciate it. You know, prop tech to me, it's always, it's technology that starts with a specific human problem and then that problem exists inside of a real estate context to some degree. I think I think you can only call something prop tech if it actually solves the problem because I think the problem is the story, not necessarily the technology behind it. So that would be my kind of rough rough definition of it. And in the senior living space, I mean, I think probably one of the biggest ways that we see prop tech utilized is like designing say a CRM, you know, you see a CRM that's designed for say like hotel staff or hotel sales or something like that. And then they'll try to retrofit it for a community to fill assisted living beds and or like an e-commerce tool that gets redeployed for senior living. And it's just, they're just very different animals and they just require their own set of tools, their own solutions. Yeah, it's awesome. And what I love about this question is that there is so much uniqueness and new answers that come out of asking that, even though I've asked it, you know, hundreds of times now. And I, you know, the fact that you described it as a human problem related to real estate and kind of really, you know, that it's it's not really the the the assets issue or problem that you're kind of providing a solution for. It is the the human side for of that problem. So love that kind of spin on the on the question and how you answered that. And with prop tech too, I think in senior living, there's kind of this one question that needs to be asked. And it's like, does the solution, does it start with the family's experience or does it start with the operator's workflow? Because it tends to be the one that's that solves the problem on the family side or the ones that get adopted. And then the other ones tend to sit, you know, on like the server and they never get used. Yep. Yep. Have had secondhand experience kind of watching my wife's family, their grandmother go into assisted living. So I've kind of seen a little bit from afar. So I'm going to be interested in kind of, you know, from somebody that's that understands the the the space very well. I certainly can appreciate that the the broader family dynamic that's part of the decision-making that you were just kind of alluding to. But before we we kind of jump jump there, I love to understand people's background and kind of where they started their careers. And from our discussion, you you talked about your parents owning a printing business and then you kind of while not directly following their footsteps kind of started your own marketing agency. So there was kind of a little bit of kind of family tradition in that sense. But interested kind of where you did you expect to follow in your family's footsteps. And when you went to college and I know you got a graphic design degree kind of what were things that you were exploring kind of early in your career and thought you might go after professionally. Yeah, I don't think anyone wakes up and says I want to be running a printing press in seventh grade. So yeah, I mean sometimes we're just we're a part of the business we're kind of born into and that was the way it was for my family. I did get a very good inside track on marketing and advertising from an early age and how how vital that was for businesses to grow or to maintain their current footprint. So that was that was really where it started for me. And the lessons that kind of stuck with me watching small businesses, watching my father's business which never grew to be on I think like 20 20 employees something like that. But I saw that there were kind of like two big takeaways for me. The first I think was probably the the lack of systems and that the fact that like systems matter more than effort. And I think that can be said a lot in a small business and especially today when you see like there's so many startups and AI startups where it's like one person doing the job with 10 people now and you're like how is that even possible. But it's because they have proper systems in place and it's like I watch my father for example for years you know struggle to grow just because like it wasn't that he wasn't working hard. He just didn't have systems in place. So every time he started to do something he had a kind of rebuild from scratch every single time for every new customer. And so that lesson stuck with me and then the second was probably and this kind of ties in the senior living I think is that relationship is the product. It's you know in a marketing agency for example you can do great work and lose clients left and right because that relationship wasn't right but if the relationship is right you can I don't say you can do bad work but you can definitely make mistakes and own it and still keep that client. I mean we've we've had clients for over 15 years that have stuck with us because we've we've been honest and accountable in that entire time. Yep awesome awesome. I wanted to understand if there was any early interest in real estate or was real estate just kind of and you're kind of move into senior living was that happenstance or was there something in the back of your head that kind of was a kind of an inclination that there was something in this real estate area that you wanted to explore in the future. I mean my interest in senior living specifically was definitely my grandparents watching all four of them go through some level of senior care and watching my family struggle to make those decisions just as you were talking about your family it is a stressful you know time of crisis often that doesn't have a lot of planning there isn't a lot of talk before those things happen so seeing families try to navigate that in in a in a very short amount of time was interesting for me as as a marketer from a real estate perspective. I hadn't really thought about it before senior living but when I started to watch senior living and how there were two things happening in tandem there was there was the operation running inside the asset and then there was the asset itself and there were there were deals being done in both spaces there were you know inside a senior living operation it's complex you've got it's not just about you know rent and residential living it's also health care it's it's dining it's entertainment it's transportation it's social services all of these things kind of wrapped into this one operational business that sits inside of a real estate wrapper so you have to consider both and I think just the complexity of that was really interesting for me and the more I got into it the more I saw that there was a need on both the capital side of senior housing as well as on the operational side to help improve book experiences for both groups of people so that's kind of where my time started to get split between helping operators fill their buildings and helping capital decide which investments were going to be you know sound investments or that had a lower risk profile than others. Gotcha gotcha well as I as I mentioned we haven't dug into senior living on this podcast before and I would categorize it as the least understood real estate asset class. So, would love to kind of tee up a rather open-ended question for you if like, what should everybody know about senior living that's, you know, somebody that's, from the lens of somebody that's involved in real estate, you know, that I think that there's lots of opportunity, lots of areas of improvement as you were just describing, but what can you share about this and kind of broaden our understanding of this particular asset class? I think most of what I just said holds true in the fact that senior living is, it's probably, it's one of the most undervalued asset classes for sure, but it's an operating business wrapped around a real estate asset. So, once, once you understand that and the scope of that, you know, understanding how to underwrite it, how to operate it, and then even just build technology for it starts to kind of make sense. It covers a broad spectrum, you know, it's a very blanket term. There's multiple different levels of care, which I think is what kind of throws people to, you've got, you know, independent living, which is basically age restricted apartments for active retirees who don't necessarily need any help yet. Then you move into assisted living and memory care where residents are, they're paying for housing and they're paying for those care services, dining activities, all that. And then you get into like skilled nursing, which is on the far end of the higher cutie needs. And there's even buildings called like CCRC's continuing care retirement communities or life plan communities where someone can transition through all those different levels of care all while staying on the same campus. So, that's kind of, that's the overall complexity of it. But actually, like, who's making the decision, I think, is the other piece of senior living that not a lot of people think about until they're actually in it, is that statistically, I think 80% of decisions in senior living are made by the adult children, even if it's for independent living, they're often weighing in. So, there's a lot more players at stake than just, just the person who might potentially be living in that community. Yep. Would you classify over 55 communities as falling into that senior living asset class, or is that a completely different asset class or a friend asset class, I guess? It probably would depend on who you speak with. I mean, I've heard, I've heard 55 plus an independent living used synonymously. And then other times, I've heard them as, as specific assets, like 55 plus apartments versus independent living, which is more of a quote unquote retirement community. But even that term retirement community is kind of going out the window because how many people do you know that are actively retired at 55 plus, or even 65 these days, that number is waning and waning fast. The demographics around senior living, I think, is interesting because we keep hearing that 65 number as the time when senior living begins, but it's actually closer to 80 or 85. If we look at the silver tsunami, for example, the oldest baby boomer has just turned 80 years old this year. By 2030, all baby boomers will be 65. So we're still at the very beginning stages of this. And by 2034, there'll be more adults over the age of 65 than there will be children in America for the first time in the history of America. So we're seeing this swell and it's only going to increase from there, you know, by 2040, we'll have 2X, the number of 80 plus year olds and by 2053 times the number. So those, you know, for essentially the next three decades, we're going to see this this monumental shift in everything, not just in housing, but in the economy and, you know, in care workers, you know, all the products that are going to be developed on the market, there's going to be this very strong. I mean, you can even see it on Netflix. How many shows now are leaning more towards the older adults, right? Compared to kids, you've got, you know, stranger things for the kids and then you've got the burrows for the, yeah, I mean, it's kind of cool to see this transition, but it is happening solely right before our eyes. Definitely, definitely. I was going to mention as something that I hadn't shared with you, but that my wife is an intern designer and she worked on a number of projects in Japan that were these very high-end CCR buildings where like they are just gorgeous, like very high-end apartments and you move into them. And yes, depending on the care that you need, you're changing apartment floors in order to have access to different facilities and levels of care. So it's definitely, I'm sure that exists in some areas or some places in the U.S., but it was eye-opening from having her share kind of this very, you know, luxurious living that like was very different from kind of the tradition or the mindset that I had around senior living. Yeah, that narrative is strong. I mean, my parents still to this day, I'm not moving into a nursing home, you know, it's like if you would just look at one of these buildings, you would see they are so far from that. And what you're describing are kind of like the CCRC's or the life-plant communities I was talking about earlier. The catch with those is there's usually a buy-in which is pretty significant. I mean, there's one community we manage in San Francisco, for example, the buy-in, I think it's like $1.5 or $1.6 million just to get into the building. And then there's a monthly rent cost on top of that. So obviously, most older adults moving into those types of communities are selling their assets off because this is kind of like a forever move, right? They're moving in and they're going to be able to age in place for the rest of their lives. Gotcha, gotcha. I know you touched on this briefly and kind of your experience and kind of your observation as a marketer and kind of operator, but what was missing in the space when you started to kind of dip your toes into this and what's the platform and the services that CCR is providing? CCR growth is providing in order to kind of fill the needs of this space. Yeah, no, that's a good question too. Originally, I would say we were a marketing agency and we've transitioned now to a demand generation agency. And not many people understand the difference between the two, but marketing agency I would say is about building and deploying campaigns, building brand assets and then like, you know, counting leads. And at the end of the day, handing that off to the team and saying, yeah, we did our job. We got your leads. Good luck with that. So with demand generation, you're essentially owning that that entire funnel from the from the family's first search on Google or wherever they're doing it all the way through to a move in. And you're looking at all of those systems that are all involved in that process of pulling that person in and then nurturing them through the program and then getting getting them to tour and then eventually deposit and move in. And so we're kind of owning that entire arc and all the systems involved in that and helping not that we are the ones, you know, doing the sales or any of that, but we're building the systems that then help those teams be more efficient, effective and produce like more consistent, sustainable results over time. I do. What are some of what had previous been some of the big drop-offs that you had observed when you were kind of seeing how it was how it was being run and and kind of where the the solutions weren't being provided for this for this senior living space. I think that there was a lot of generic tools and even today you'll see like tools that are built for a specific industry or maybe not built for industry at all. They're just built for for users, right? Those trying to be adopted or retrofitted to the senior living framework, you know, and instead because we've been in this space for so long, you know, 20 plus years inside the industry, like we have benchmarks that we use, we have patterns that we recognize, playbooks we've built. So everything we do is kind of native to senior living. So that's kind of like the first the first part about it. And then I think in terms of in terms of what we built, the first thing we built around and and I'm going to change this, but I'm going to say speed to lead because that's what people understand and know and even in the in the real state world. I know know that speed to lead is a very important concept, you know, there's Research that says that like essentially contact rates drop by about 10X within the first hour if someone doesn't reach out or on the flip side of that conversion communities will convert it at 85% higher rate if they reach out within the first five minutes. So we noticed that was a problem we do a lot of like mystery shopping with communities that we manage and we noticed that they either were not answering. Or they were waiting 24 to 48 hours to get back or sometimes they weren't even responding at all if they felt like it wasn't a good lead. So we kind of built that infrastructure to make sure that there was an immediate personalized response no matter if it was on 10 p.m. on a Sunday or or any other time. I mean, make sure that they had a substantial like touch point immediately and I say now speed to human is the biggest thing because with AI anybody can do speed to lead right. I mean as soon as the form fill comes into my website and I can have a bot immediately reach out or or send a send a text message or something like that but that that's not meaningful that's not something that's going to be the difference between the family choosing me and choosing another community. It's really how fast can I get a human being to pick up the phone or to reach out to that family to to help them in their time of crisis. The second piece I think is the nurture infrastructure. You know, there was there was a stop process I think with a lot of our communities that we were managing where like if if the family didn't schedule a tour on the first touch point, then they're not a good lead or it's not worth following up on them. Most families they're in like a 90 to 180 day decision cycle the average the average sales cycle for assistive living for example 180 days so no one's making a quick decision so if we have. You know if we're only relying on the fact that that first touch point didn't go well that this is not going to be a good lead for this community and just toss it out we're we're leaving a lot of money on the table and potentially you know a lot of families that need help and could potentially eventually move in. So making sure that we are having meaningful touch points and that we're nurturing them all the way through no matter where they are in the sequence where they drop off in the sequence were we're monitoring that. I think the last piece was probably attribution that's huge because I will say for whatever reason and senior living just seems to be antiquated when it comes to the way that marketing is done but I would say the majority of operators. They can tell you how many leads they have coming in but none of them can tell you which channel is producing them which piece of content perform well which community touch point actually produce the move in most of them don't even know that so we've. So we've built systems to make sure we're tracking all of that gotcha gotcha from a technology standpoint and kind of a little bit beyond the specific area that CCR growth is involved with. What where have you seen technology kind of continue to infiltrate this this space and you know you talked about it being a this this complexity of this like hospitality and experiential. And environment you know given given some of the other trends that you're alluding to kind of what what are you how are you seeing this space evolve I guess since with with technology hopefully for the better yeah no because exactly what you said technology and experiential are both kind of equally kind of growing up at the same time. So one of the coolest areas that I've seen communities using and and not only communities could do this but multifamily could as well but virtual staging is a big one that I find really interesting from a prop tech perspective just because in communities they've historically kept like a few vacant units that are stages like model apartments right and some buildings they have. They have single bedroom they have two bedroom sometimes three bedroom units you know and they would keep those as model apartments and not not ever fill those units but now with virtual staging. You could essentially present any unit digitally and let families kind of experience the space remotely and then you can rent those model units out so you're recovering revenue from rooms up previously you know at previously we were just pure overhead so. I think that's one of the coolest things i've seen that and and just virtual tours in general I think because it's experiential because somebody can literally tour the entire building so by by the time they actually physically come to tour in person they already know where everything is there like I know where the cafeteria is I know where the the game room is i've seen all these things so just. Trust building is probably the biggest thing in senior living the sooner you can build trust the better and these types of tools are a great way to do that yeah. Now very familiar with the virtual staging side of things I always think I haven't seen it yet it probably exists out there but I have this. Vision of of being able to like take a picture of your current home and it for it to grab all like the items and then for it to stage. Or prevent present different stages of this of the new space with your actual furniture so you can truly imagine your. Kind of living in there with with your with your stuff I think that would be a. An interesting bridge to to these to kind of moving to different different spaces i'm sure it's coming soon. We've done that in our in our house we just move from from California to Utah and literally every room we wanted to design we took pictures and measurements of the empty rooms and even the stuff that we wanted to put in the room we put that all into into different ai models and we're able to model out some some pretty cool renderings where you know we weren't starting from scratch we knew exactly how to how to lay out the space so yeah it's pretty cool yeah he's kind of like am I going to. Can I keep this stuff is going to fit into the these these spaces you know is it is it do I want to you know I want to pay to move all this stuff and then actually. You know put it in a storage unit or have to sell it or just get rid of it where I move over yeah those those are going to be definitely just part and parcel of kind of living going forward i'm sure. What's are there other emerging trends in senior living that are. Both either experiential or kind of behind the scenes that are. Are of growth for these organizations you know we talked you know the the demographic change the elongation of of life and you know stays I imagine the length of stays are probably changing in in these in these facilities and then that that has additional education so anything else you're kind of observing kind of that are being kind of in you know that operators are thinking about and that are kind of part of their their planning. Yeah either operators are thinking about or not thinking about and they should be thinking about that for sure yeah there's there's definitely some some concerns I would say about how. So I'm always looking at this from from the operator angle because. My goal is to help help them maintain a full building as best as possible and and retain those residents as long as possible so so well what can we do to make sure that happens. The trends that i'm seeing right now i would say overall they're not positive but they're definitely things to keep an eye on first and foremost is the i think from a prop tech perspective is that the way families are searching now has completely changed you know google keyword search was the name of the game for years you know people would type in like assisted living near me or. Or you know something like that but now families they're looking in cloud chat GPT perplexity and the other models and they're they're asking more conversational questions like what's the best memory care community. In Pauwaki was constant for someone in early stage Alzheimer's like something very very specific like that instead of just getting a list of links now they're getting like a synthesized list of recommendations. So the community isn't on that list there essentially invisible and even if they rank well in Google they may not shop on that list at all and so a lot of the industry doesn't know that shift is happening or if they do they don't know what to do about it. Or they're still investing in kind of outdated strategies now i'm not someone who's going to say take your entire SEO strategy and push it over to AI search because there are players in our market specifically like a place for mom. Which is one of the biggest third party aggregators out there but they have abandoned SEO all together and are leading all into AI which in my opinion is the major mistake. AI searches are still based on content that's driven from your website and your other online assets. So it's still it still matters. Optimization is still important. Content is still important. So I think they're making a mistake there. But that's probably one of the one of the bigger ones. The second trend I think is around staffing because that's been it's been problematic for for this industry for a long time. I think the turnover rate for frontline care workers is over 50% year over year. And for dining staff it's over 70%. But the biggest challenge right now is the fact that we've got an administration and office that literally just changed the the temporary protective status laws around Haitian and Syrian workforce. And about 40% of the workforce in senior living is far and born. And I think in some markets it's anywhere from 10 to 20% of that workforce could potentially be Haitian or Syrian. So I don't know how communities are going to solve that gap because we're already having a workforce shortage and now to add that on top of it that's going to be really really problematic. So they're going to have to figure some things out there. And then the last trend that I see unfortunately is there's communities that are kind of abandoning their their internal marketing engine. And they're relying solely on these third-party aggregators like a place for mom. So they're essentially outsourcing their lead generation to referral platforms. The problem is those referral platforms they charge one month's rent per placement. So for every move in you're paying anywhere from like five to $7,000 on average. Which sounds okay if you know if you're guaranteed occupancy. But that's not going to be the case for a long because if you think about the demographic wave that's coming if if we're sitting at roughly 90% occupancy right now before the wave even hits what's going to happen when most of these buildings are maxed out there's going to be so many leads filling the system. These third-party aggregators are going to be sending one lead to say 20 different communities. And now 20 different sales teams are going to have to be fighting for that one person. It's going to create major chaos not only for the sales teams but for the family some sales who are trying to navigate this really difficult time. So those are kind of the trends of where I see things going and you know I don't have answers for how to solve it necessarily. But I do think it's something we need to keep an eye on. For sure for sure definitely not not going to get any easier for these for these businesses and certainly you know with capacity constraints on building new facilities just from a general kind of new construction starts and the financing kind of penciling out like there it's not like you're there's a lot of additional rooms coming into play that is going to provide more spaces for the this population to get access to. I want to touch on your other business that is on the newer side if you can share a little bit about Nordon and kind of what services you're providing there and how that ties into kind of the the the expertise that you've you've developed at CCR growth. Yeah thanks for bringing that up I'm really excited about Nordon this is something we launched a couple of months ago and it's specifically looking at the capital side of senior housing but it came out of watching the same problem I help operators solve that was showing up on the investor side so you know just like any industry investors who are who are looking at real estate or or capital I'm sorry commercial real estate specifically you know they're doing their thorough financial diligence but they're completely missing the one variable that decides the outcome in the long term which is the question of whether the operator can sustain or grow occupancy in that specific local market you know that sounds it sounds easy to answer but if you think about what am I trying to say so the question like you can look at financials all day long but financials those those are our past numbers right that's a performance based number it's not telling you how that assets going to perform in the future right and that's that's ultimately the goal is to figure out can the can the community continue to perform at the level it's at you know is the occupancy real is it durable or is it rented from like a third party aggregator you know are there other things that are starting to go wrong and say the market or maybe the reputation of the community or there's other things that that may show up in the financials later that aren't showing up right now so Nordon essentially fills that gap we do an independent diagnostic aside from the legal and the financial due diligence and we're looking at those signals the market performance based signals that start to go wrong before the financials so how is their digital presence you know are they still as visible on Google and AI searches they were how are families finding the community what kind of reputation do they have are they are they still getting the same reviews are they are they getting less are they getting negative reviews what are their referral relationships look like what is what pipeline indicators are we seeing you know for the next six to 12 months things like that and the cool thing about that is most of those data points are observable from the outside so I don't need to I don't need a team of investors to then ask the operator to give me the data to be able to analyze it I can see all that from the outside and the the important point about that is that if if most of these deals are based on information that's provided by the operator or by the seller so of course that information is going to look good it's going to look great because they want they want the sale they want to they want to secure you know they want to secure that so we're able to kind of say hey you know there's some questionable things in here and and we don't take positions we're not we're not in these deals we don't own the buildings were you know you got to think of us like an auditor not an owner and and that's where the value in our report and comes from because we have no inherent you know reason to be involved other than to make sure that this is a sound investment or you know what risk profile are we looking at when we look at this gotcha gotcha another thing I know you're involved with is your your podcast leads to leases with love to before we wrap up here a little bit about why what inspired you to start this podcast and what are the kind of the stories that you talk about on your on your episodes and kind of the focus for the industry yeah I think from leads to leases was kind of born out of the same curiosity and insights that I was seeing with our our agency CC our growth you know I kept having those same conversations with operators and executives about like just about the whole industry overall you know and I thought well wouldn't it be nice to have a platform where everyone could hear these conversations and not not the polished conference panel version of those conversations but like the real ones where people talk about you know what's broken or what's working or how they fixed it or what they do differently if they were in a similar situation and there was really no good place for those conversations to live publicly in senior living so three years ago we started the show and you know the formats straight forward just deep conversations with people who are who are in the trenches the operators the the sales and marketing leaders technology founders innovators you know anyone who's helping to kind of support that that industry and you know it has really become and from other people talking about it it has become kind of like a knowledge infrastructure for the industry where where people from all different areas of the senior living space are coming to listen and and absorb this and and take it for you know take it and run with it and and putting those ideas into their own community so it's been pretty rewarding awesome awesome yeah I mean the podcasts you know are there's such a willingness for people to engage in this format you know whereas you know if you're if you're if you're doing a an article in a in a industry rag or something like that there's so much polish and so much approvals and and and you know it's it's it's scripted it's it's just it doesn't have that kind of as you said conversational kind of knowledge transfer that I think it's just in inherent in in this in this space with the way people are really relaxed and engaged in and and wanting to talk about their businesses and in the issues that they're addressing so I it's it's interesting too that so many of these conversations have kind of come to the same I don't say that the same general consensus But there's been some similarities across the board even where you wouldn't think there would be and everything we've learned We've been able to apply back to CCR growth and now to Norton So it's been it's been highly educational for both myself and for the guests typically, but You know the problems that face like a three community regional operator are the same as like a 50 community operator often And it's like you know, it's like fundamental stuff like building a team that stays or how How do you make marketing and sales systems that actually work together like simple things that that wouldn't seem like rocket science But when you start to lift the hood in a lot of these operations, they're just not doing it definitely definitely With that Jerry unfortunately got a draw conversation to an end. Thank you so much coming on the podcast sharing your your story and and All the things that you're you're doing within the senior living space both at CCR growth and and Norton For anybody that's in the audience looking to contact you. What's the best way for them to reach out? Yeah, and thanks for having me mark. Thank you for this platform and and for For just the opportunity and yeah, anyone who wants to reach out to me directly You can find me on LinkedIn search Jerry Vinci. You'll be able to find me anyone who's interested in learning more about the operational side of senior living You can go to CCRgrowth.com and you can also find my podcast there and for the capital investors Looking to learn more about senior housing. You can find me at Norton advisory.com. That's N-O-R-D-O-N advisory.com Thanks so much looking forward to Following you and listening to your your podcast Thanks, Mark. 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