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Jason Goldberg's Full NRF Keynote on Agentic Commerce: "Commerce Disrupted: Rise of the AI Native consumer"

42m 35s

Jason Goldberg's Full NRF Keynote on Agentic Commerce: "Commerce Disrupted: Rise of the AI Native consumer"

The Retail Genetic Podcast episode discusses the disruptive emergence of "agentic commerce," where AI shopping agents are creating entirely new consumer behaviors beyond mere operational efficiency. The host, Scott Wingo, introduces a keynote by Jason "Retail Geek" Goldberg, which explores whether this AI-driven shift is a monumental transformation or an overhyped trend. Goldberg highlights the industry debate, citing bullish views from tech leaders alongside skeptical analyst opinions. He uses the historical analogy of the ice industry—where harvesters failed to adapt to factory-made ice, which in turn was disrupted by home appliances—to warn incumbents about the risks of technological disruption. However, current retail data shows growth captured by both giants like Amazon and Walmart and new challengers like Shein and TikTok Shop. Goldberg defines agentic commerce not just by AI completing transactions, but by its influence on the entire purchase journey, representing a fundamental disruption in how products are discovered and bought, shifting away from the traditional in-store "first moment of truth."

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English
I'm a lot more interested in what I think is a much bigger disruptive change, which are entirely new consumer behaviors because of AI. And so when I'm talking about the disruption, I'm not talking about being able to make your email marketing more efficient. I'm talking about people that discover products and buy them in new ways that they didn't a year ago. Welcome to the Retail Genetic Podcast where we explore the intersection of retail e-commerce and AI agents which we call Retail Gen-A. Our mission is simple. We are shining a bright light on the new agentic AI shopping mega-trend which will disrupt the trillion dollar digital retail market. The stakes are high, Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, herplexity, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Anthropic are all fighting to be the consumer AI shopping agent winner. There are going to be some tough decisions for online brands and retailers to make. What happens to check out? How should payments work? Could you continue to invest in retail media networks? What does the world look like when over half of your traffic is not from humans, but from AI agents? These existential questions are the tip of the iceberg on this podcast we're talking to industry experts, analysts and influencers to get answers to these questions, identify trends and best practices. This is Retail Gen-Tik, your podcast partner in navigating our AI shopping agent future and now here's your host, Scott WINGO! Welcome to the Retail Genetic Podcast. Today we have something different but hopefully fun for you. As you know, the NRF Big Show, 2026, just wrapped up earlier this week on Tuesday. The last keynote of the entire conference was my good friend and podcast partner, Jason Goldberg, aka Retail Geek. Also he is the chief commerce strategy officer of Pupilsis. This year, Jason has celebrated 10 years of podcasting together and it's been a wonderful partnership. Each episode I learned a ton from Jason about some nuance about consumers, retail, digital tags, payments he knows a million things about him as well. That base said, as I was watching this keynote and reflecting back on those last 10 years, I came to the conclusion that what I've really learned the most from Jason is how to be a better storyteller. Since Jason's superpower, he is a great storyteller of retail stories specifically, which obviously is great for what he does, and this keynote is a really good example of that. He's so good at this superpower that he is always jettying around the world, delivering keynotes, digital retail events, and with Pupilsis top clients. He always mentions Walmart, but they have many others. The title of this keynote is Commerce Disrupted, Rise of the AI, Native Consumer, which is also near and dear to my heart. For this episode, we did an experiment, and what we're trying to do is put you in the audience. Maybe you couldn't make it to the keynote, maybe you've never been to it in our F before. What we wanted you to do is feel like you were there. If you watch the video, you'll get the full immersive experience. You can see the size of the room, the AV setup, how Jason moves around the stage, how he articulates all those good things, if you're really into the speaking storytelling like I am. If you're on the audio, that's great as well. The presentation is definitely worth looking at while you go through this or afterwards. We are including that on the Retail Genetic Substack. I'll also post that on LinkedIn for you. I hope you enjoyed this as much as I did. It's a really good story, and it raises some interesting questions about what's going to happen with a gentle commerce and the future. And now, without further delay, Jason Goldberg. Retail disrupted the rise of the AI native consumer. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the stage, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer of Publisist Group, Jason Retail Geek, Goldberg. Retail is the greatest industry in the world, and I am in front of the best looking, smartest, most diligent people in all of retail. It's the very end of the show, and you guys are still here, hungry for more content. This is amazing. Or my podcast co-host Scott hired a bunch of seat fillers. So give yourself a hand for still being here and still learning at the end of the show. Come on, guys, you totally deserve it. Yeah. And if you could indulge me for one extra second, did everyone have an amazing show? Yeah. We had lots of good conversations and learned a lot. That is because the Inter-F staff has been working crazy for months to get ready for this show, and they've been working non-stop since they've been here. So if you could do me one favor and give a hand for Matt, and Jill, and Paul, and Eric, and all the folks that have been working hard to make this a good show for us. Thank you guys very much. Yeah. So I'm going to jump right into it. We're going to be talking about the disruption of AI, so no spoilers there. And in the highly unlikely event, that anyone in this room doesn't get enough of me in the next four hours, I think I have. Four hours, I have great news. I have a much smarter friend, Scott Wingo. He and I accidentally started a podcast at this show like over 10 years ago before podcasting was cool. And there are now like 400 hours of us on the Inter-Web talking about this stuff. So Scott's parents very helpfully spelled his name wrong with only one T. So it's super easy to find in the search engines, and you're welcome to tune in and join us for this discussion. But as I said, we're going to be talking about this giant thing we're living through right now, agentic commerce disruption. And this is going to be a participatory session. You guys are going to have to help me. We're going to answer a couple of big questions that have been on everyone's mind while we're here. So we're going to get an amazing outcome, but I have to kind of set the table. So one of the big questions is how big a deal is agentic commerce, right? And so I wanted to kind of very quickly share two perspectives. If you were here on Sunday, you saw Sundar on stage. And he famously is very bullish on AI. Not surprisingly. You know, he's like, I don't know, maybe as big as electricity or fire. And the former, or at Amazon, they also, of course, are very bullish on this. I know that this is probably the biggest innovation since the invention of the internet, which was quite relevant to most of us in this room. And somewhat, humorously, another great technologist Bill Gates said, yeah, it's going to be so big that you're probably not going to go back to Amazon again when it happens, which I'm not sure Andy appreciated that quote. But so there's a lot of luminaries in our industry that think that this is a huge transformative deal that we all have to immediately get ready for. But not everyone agrees with him. If you hang out in the weird corners of LinkedIn that I hang out in, there's a bunch of smart people that are dubious, right? So I have a good friend, Andrew Lipson. He's a great analyst. He's one of the pioneers in writing about retail media. And he's a great voice in our industry. A couple months ago, he wrote an article called, "Agentic commerce is one giant hallucination. No one's ever buying anything from the robot. No one's ever going to trust the robot, right?" And another dear friend of mine, Sutrida Kudai from Forrester, she had a slightly more balanced take, but she's like, hey, it might be a thing, but it's a small thing. Less than 2% of all the questions on chat, she's BT, for example, are related to commerce. So she thinks it's overblown, right? So one of the first things I want to do is gauge the audience before we get going too far in how big a deal you think it is. So we're going to do a survey. Now I want to quickly warm everyone up for the survey. Get out your phone. If you're playing Angry Birds, I'm sorry, you got to abandon your map. And scan this QR code. This is the practice session before we jump into the actual survey. Scan this QR code right here. And it's going to take you to a survey. And the correct answer to this survey is five stars, he was amazing. So if everyone could just fill out five stars, he was amazing. You can paraphrase if you choose. That would be awesome. And so now that you're all warmed up, now that you all have your phones out, now that you all know how to scan a QR code, we're going to go to the Slydo survey, which is how big a deal is agentic commerce. Is it Andrew Whipson total hallucination? Is it sutureda, real, but overhyped, is it sort of somewhere in between? It's the latest in a long line of disruptions like social and mobile. Or is it the most important thing that's ever happened to us, right? Yeah. And so you can see there's some controversy in the room, right? There's very few Andrew Whipsons, but the other three are pretty close. It's pretty neck and neck, which is interesting. I'm going to share some facts with you, and then we're going to see if you still feel the same at the end. But I do have one more question. If it is a big deal, if it does become a meaningful part of commerce, the next magic question is who's going to win. Is it the giant incumbents with a huge booths that you've seen downstairs that have already been winning, that are going to have an intrinsic advantage, or is it all the cool new innovative companies in the startup pavilion? Scott has said on our podcast a few times that if your company was born before agentic commerce was invented, you're probably not going to win at agentic commerce. So he would certainly be betting on the new challengers. But there's some reason to believe that there's some resource advantages for the incumbents. So it seems like we're split about 60-40 in that room. Okay. So one more thing I have to do before we get into it. I intentionally ask you those questions without defining agentic commerce. But I really think definitions are important. I think it's kind of boring and geeky to talk about definitions. But I find when a lot of us are debating these things, we're using the same words, but we have wildly different meanings. So I just want to kind of ground everyone for the purposes of this presentation. The first thing is there's this really annoying, I want to call it a word, but I think it's an acronym, AI, Artificial Intelligence. And if you haven't noticed, every single exhibitor at InterF is an AI company. It's in every single company's name. And in the four words they had to dedicate to the sign on their booth, three of them were AI. I'm pretty sure. I bought a hotdog from the AI hotdog vendor on the booth today. And that's potentially true because AI is incredibly broad. It's a tool that can impact almost anything, right? And so there's a ton of things retailers have been doing since the beginning of time that AI can absolutely make more efficient, that AI can make better, right? And so I call that whole genre of AI, the efficiencies genre. And if you want to make money today with AI, that's probably where you should play. Like there's lots of improvements to supply chain and staffing and order management and product merchandising that efficiencies can dramatically help. So I'm not trying to poo poo efficiencies, I'm just trying to say that's not what I'm talking about. So that's my definition of agent commerce. And then I have to address one other part of this, and this is a huge debate on LinkedIn right now. As soon as you start arguing with someone about how big agent commerce is, one of the first questions that comes up is, well, are you talking about how many times the robot takes the credit card? Or are you talking about how many times the robot influences a purchase decision, right? And we've been arguing about this since the beginning of e-commerce. Is e-commerce only the orders I take on my website? Or is it all of those sales that get generated after you use Google Maps and read ratings and reviews? And do all this digital product research and then you walk into a target and buy the product, is that digital commerce, right? And then as social commerce came up, we had those arguments again. Is social commerce just TikTok shop? Or is it all the products that get discovered on TikTok? And we're having that same argument again, is agent commerce all the orders that the robot takes and collects the money for, or is it all of the new purchases that wouldn't have happened had it not been for the robot, right? And I strongly believe that you're far more prudent to think about the whole iceberg, not just that part of the iceberg that's above the surface. So those are my two definitions. Credit commerce is new customer behavior, not the efficiencies, and it's the whole pool of new purchase behaviors that get influenced as a result, right? So you remember that first question I ask is who wins, incumbents or challengers? And I have some bad news for you. Historically, this level of disruption is not awesome for incumbents, right? Did anyone see a dinosaur on their way to work the day? Yeah, probably not. I want to tell you what I think is a more illustrative story. I want to tell you about one of my marketing heroes, this gentleman, Frederick Tutor. And I wouldn't expect too many of you to be familiar with him. He lived in the early 1800s. He actually got out of debtors prison at the age of 18, in about 1804. And he had a new business venture in mind. He's much like Scott, he's just serial entrepreneur. So Frederick Tutor drew up on a farm in New England, I want to say. The Tutor pond was a pond in the backyard of his family's farm. And he had this idea that there are all these new rich expats living in the Caribbean. And he imagined that they would really enjoy a cold beverage. If only there was cold in the Caribbean, which in 1800 there was not. So he had a revolutionary idea. I'm going to carve out the ice from my family farm. I'm going to put it on a boat and ship it to the Bahamas. And just you know about half the ice melts on the way from New England to the Bahamas. But some of that ice did arrive in the Bahamas. And Frederick Tutor invented free samples. He gave free ice to every bar in the Bahamas and said, serve a cold drink to your customers. And I'll bet you they come back for more and you can buy that ice from the Tutor ice company. And that turned out to be a good idea. By about 1840, Frederick Tutor worth $200 million, which is billions of dollars in today's currency. And he was literally delivering 90,000 tons of ice a year to India for the OG retail conglomerate, the Bombay trading company to drink cold beverages in India. And it spawned a whole industry, ice harvesters. A ton of it got harvested right here in New York. And it was the largest industry in the world. The Norwegians are apparently very good at ice. Is anyone familiar with Tutor ice today? Anyone buying a Tutor ice? No Tutor ice customers. You know why? Because what Tutor and none of his competitors foresaw is the invention of artificial ice. Do you know what artificial ice is? Artificial ice is ice made in a factory, all right? And the American ice company started making ice in bulk and it couldn't make ice in the Bahamas. So you didn't have to put it in the boat. You didn't have to sail it to India. It was much more efficient. And the American ice company completely put Tutor ice out of business. By 1914, 85% of the homes in America got regular ice deliveries. You had a cooler and ice man came to your house, put ice in it and that's how you kept things cold. Y'all familiar with the American ice company? Yeah, you know why? Because none of the huge ice factories foresaw that we could make ice in our kitchens, right? And so here's the lesson. None of the ice harvesters, the largest company in the industry in the world, became ice factories. And none of the ice factories became home ice makers. And I'm going to predict the future for you. I'm going to tell you what the next big innovation in ice is. You know what it is? It's the nugget ice. Y'all familiar with nugget ice? If you ever went to Sonic, they had this delicious, chewy, aerated ice and people literally drive through to Sonic, don't get a hamburger but just buy bags of ice. And you know it's a big deal because my most beloved brand Starbucks now serves nugget ice in all the Starbucks. And so, magic question for you, are all those home ice makers going to be the ones to invent the nugget ice machines, right? So that is sort of a cautionary tale for the incumbents in this room about what could happen because of digital commerce. But there's also evidence on the other side of this. If you don't know, you deserve an incredible amount of credit. Last year in the United States of America, we sold 5.3 trillion dollars worth of stuff. That's a lot of stuff, right? That's about 3.5 percent, 3.6 percent growth, 3.6 percent growth is about our 10-year average we grow between 3.5 and 4 percent a year for the last 10 years. So 3.6 is right in the sweet spot of that. So it was kind of an average year. Here's the thing. I don't like talking about averages, do you know why? On average, the country of Nepal is flat. There are exactly 25,000 feet up and 25,000 feet down. So if you talk about averages, you would miss the giant mountain in the middle of Nepal called Everest, which is pretty important, right? So in the same way that 3.6 percent growth, that's 183 billion dollars of stuff. You guys sold that we didn't sell the year before. And that's amazing, like you don't get enough credit. But when you say who got all those sales, was it incumbents or challengers? The story gets very different, right? This is not e-commerce, this is retail. Amazon got 31 percent of all that growth. Walmart got the next 14 percent of all that growth. The next company is my nemesis, Costco. Do you know? Hopefully Costco is not in the room, I should have asked. Do you know why Costco is my nemesis? They are famously the retailer that most often does not take any of my advice and is wildly successful for doing so. I'm a little bitter, but they alone represented 7 percent of all that growth. So 3 incumbents represented half of all the growth. The next biggest chunk is 3 challengers, 3 companies over the last 3 years that invented direct to consumer models from China. So if you don't know, 3 years ago she and became the fastest growing retailer in the history of mankind. They didn't get to keep that title very long because the next year, Timo launched a Super Bowl ad and in one year surpassed China in sales. And if that wasn't impressive enough, last year Tiktok shop sold $9 billion in their first year of business. So these 3 companies that we don't talk about enough here have revolutionized their industries and become some of the fastest growing companies. So we've got incumbents winning half of the growth. We've got challengers winning a big chunk of the growth. And what that means is every other interf member had to fight for 38 percent of that growth. So when you disaggregate this, it becomes an interesting story. There are some incumbents that win, there are some challengers that win, it's the uncomfortable middle where you don't want to be. So what is this disruption? How is this disruption? I want to try to make it real for you. I like to call it the disruption of discovery. I've been doing this a while. I'm a fourth generation retail or I've been in the business for over 30 years. And for my entire life, the greatest source of leads in the history of retail is our beloved SIS saw in store. I went to the store to get Oreos for my 10 year olds lunch and he discovered the Coca-Cola flavored Oreos and made us get them. Which side note is not my cup of tea. I don't know if you've tried the Coke flavored Oreos. But that discovered it in the store and decided to buy it is how retail has always worked. And our friends at Procter and Gamble literally invented a name for it. They call it the first moment of truth. And we invented a marketing discipline around it. We call it shopper marketing. And many of us in this room are the absolute black belt world champions in shopper marketing. Why in store is how we launch new products, it's how we invent new flavor profiles. It's the most important marketing vehicle we have. Only one problem. It's being disrupted, right? Some of you that know me know that I have an unhealthy relationship with caffeine. I don't know if there were any clues about that when I came out on stage today. But if you're in my hometown, you would probably have some other evidence at any of the Starbucks in Chicago, where I'm the customer of the month at all of them. And if you had a chance to visit my refrigerator right before NRF, you might see a familiar logo. So imagine the saw in store experience for Jason retail geek Goldberg buying coffee, right? I go into the target. I have to walk by 38 other brands of coffee, all that have a chance to conquest me, to tell me about their new flavor profiles, to get me to try that Duncan. And if none of them succeed, I get to my beloved Starbucks section and Starbucks gets to tell me all about their new flavor profiles, they get to expand my wallet, they get to extend their relationship with me. That is shopper marketing, that is saw in store. Does anyone in this room believe that that's how I got coffee? No. Right? How am I going to get coffee? I'm going to go to target. I'm going to type Starbucks into the search engine and I'm going to parachute right down to the giant kegs of coffee that I stock in my refrigerator. And nobody got a chance for serendipitous discovery. Nobody got a chance to introduce new flavor profiles unless you bought some retail media from Andrew Whipson, right? Few retail media spots, but I missed all that chance for serendipitous discovery. And I have a secret for you. This isn't how people discover coffee anymore either. Do you know people discover coffee today, the TikTok, right? This is a video that went viral on TikTok about two and a half years ago. A dude took this thing that we've all forgotten existed called instant coffee, does anyone remember instant coffee? He puts it in a cup, sugar, hot water, emulsify it, pour it over ice, it's a delicious, caramel-y creamy caffeine delivery vehicle that he called whipped coffee. This video got seen 10 million times, a bunch of other talented creators made better versions that were seen 10s of millions of times. And that week, I got a panic call from one of my clients, Walmart. Hey, Jason, we are sold out of instant coffee nationwide and we have no idea why, right? And think about it, Walmart has the greatest supply chain in the history of mankind. They're amazing at inventory. Can Walmart restock 4,700 stores with instant coffee in a week? No way, right? And did this trend last longer than a week? Did any of you have whipped coffee this morning? No. So by the time they were able to restock, this trend had come and gone. And that would be a tragedy, but the bigger tragedy is I've gone a call like that from a retailer every week for the last two and a half years. Last month, it was my friends at Sam's Club. An influencer went viral with their amazing flavored artificial crab legs. And I literally got a call. Hey, we can't get any more artificial crab legs. Do you think we could sell real crab legs and call them imitation crab legs? Which I don't think they were being serious, but they didn't do that. So these disruptions of social media being where people discover product on is a huge deal. I have another example that's been on my mind a lot for reasons that will become apparent. This is the Saw and Store experience for sunscreen. Can anyone recognize the best sunscreen on this shelf? Yeah. Unless you're in the sunscreen industry, there's no way. Right? And if I opened all those sunscreens and scored it in your hand, could you tell a good one from a bad one? Probably not. So how do we all pick sunscreen? I already told you the answer. The TikTok. Right? Dr. Shaw on TikTok, aka Dr. Durham, making videos and telling us that the most effective best coverage sunscreen in the world are illegal, not FDA approved sunscreens from South Korea. And so what do people all try to get? South Korean sunscreens. When I first met him, he had 20,000 followers on TikTok. Today, he's got 4 million followers and he did a Super Bowl ad. So this is how people are discovering products. But increasingly, they're using a new tool. They're going to the robot. Hey, ChatGBT, what's the best sunscreen to buy for my nine-year-old son to go on vacation to Hawaii? Slight, humble brag there. Does anyone get why I'm thinking about sunscreen now? Yeah. And think about what the robot did. The robot didn't get the three words I typed in to Google. It gets 26 words on average. And the robot doesn't answer just based on those 26 words. It answers based on every question I've ever asked the robot. So it does all this math and it comes back and it says, oh, for your son, these are the criteria that matter most. And here's three sunscreens that best meets that criteria. Only I'm tricking you. That's the results the robot would have given us six months ago. That's ChatGBT. Do you know what the results were two months ago? They looked a lot more like an e-commerce site. They had productiles. And I could click through and buy the product. But I'm still tricking you. If you did this search over Christmas, this is what it would look like. Go to a retailer, just buy the sunscreen straight from us. We're selling Glossier Direct, right? And see what you want. Click on it. Three clicks. That'll be relevant later. Check out. And bam, you've got sunscreen at home. And think about how much of this has happened in the last quarter. Think about how much of this has happened this week, right? ChatGBT wants a dedicated shopping research engine right before Thanksgiving. And then on Thanksgiving, Target launched an app that you could use to do research for sunscreen and buy sunscreen direct from Target on ChatGBT. Perplexity, which had been doing this for a year, wants a new version of their checkout that allows you to be the merchant of record on perplexity the day after Target launched its app. By the end of Cyber Week, Walmart had announced that they were going to make available their entire product catalog on ChatGBT, GPT. Last week, on Monday, Microsoft announced that if you find products you want to co-pilot, you can buy them direct from co-pilot. And on this very stage on Sunday, Google announced that you could do it from Google, right? The AV guys wouldn't let me update the deck again, but yesterday, Apple announced that we're going to use that Google engine on all the Apple devices. So think about what that means. Agentate commerce is not, hey Google, order a new ingredient for my kids' lunch. Agentate commerce is, hey Siri, never let me run out of ingredients for my kids' lunch again. And think about what Siri's going to do. She's going to go, oh, Jason's kid goes to Chicago Public Schools and here's the lunch schedule. And Jason flies too much on United Airlines and I see he's got a vacation book for Hawaii. He's not going to need lunch that week. And Jason buys all his groceries at Walmart. Even though he doesn't live near Walmart, he's pandering to his customers. So he buys all his groceries at Walmart. And I see from his Walmart purchases, the Jason's kid doesn't eat peanut butter. Jason's kid only eats pirate booty. And so I'm going to make sure that Jason never runs out of pirate booty, right? That is Agentate commerce. And do you know what's scary about it? When I first started, I launched my first e-commerce site at Blockbuster Entertainment in 1993 and it took 22 clicks to buy one of the eight Disney movies you could buy in the world in 1993. I'm still waiting for my residuals from that gig. I spent my entire career getting 22 clicks down to the four clicks I mentioned earlier. And honestly, I thought that's what was going to be on my tombstone. Here lies Jason Retail Geegolberg. He got us down to four clicks. High five, right? And I would have been totally satisfied until the bastards invented one click. Do you know how many clicks it takes to make a one quick purchase? Takes four clicks. They just marketed it better. I'm so mad I didn't think of that. But the robot that we just met could buy our products with zero clicks, right? And so all of that friction, all of that marketing, all of that personal work that we're doing to sell to the Goldbergs goes away when the Nvidia microchip makes sure I never run out of pirate booty. And the guy that invented the word for this, agentic commerce, is a super credible AI scientist. His professor Andrew Eng, professor at Stanford, ran Google's deep think AI lab. People magazine's most fascinating man in the world in 2013 for his AI research. Totally legit. Read the phrase, agentic. If you're curious what Dr. Eng is doing today, meet the newest board member at Amazon. So if you're wondering what Amazon thinks the future of commerce is, you can bet that they're thinking about agentic commerce, right? And it's already happening over this holiday week, the cyber five week, lots of customers were introduced for the first time to Rufus in Sparky, right? Amazon announced that customers that used Rufus converted 60% more often than customers that did not use Rufus. And on Black Friday, 38% of all Amazon sessions used Rufus. So for the first time this holiday season, a bunch of our shoppers met an agentic agent. But that agent lived on a retail website. You had to already know you needed something from Amazon or Walmart before you met that agent. And potentially, that's not going to be the future. Potentially, you're going to use a robot that's going to pick the retailer for you, right? So if you go to chatgbt.com or copilot.com or Gemini.google.com or Proplexity.com, you can get all this amazing research, you can get products recommended, you can even buy products, and you never had to pick a retailer, you never had to go to Amazon, you never had to go to Walmart. So the on-site agents may well lose some or all of the traffic to the off-site agents. And by the way, this isn't just happening on the web, this is happening in the store. I took the chatgbt app to my local Kroger store and I pointed it at the sunscreen aisle and I did this. Hey, chatgbt, what do you see? I see a variety of lotions and sunscreens. Are you looking for a specific SPF or brand? Yes, I'm going on vacation to Hawaii with my 9-year-old son. What's the best sunscreen for you on Maui? For Hawaii, you'll want a reef safe sunscreen to protect the coral reefs. Look for mineral-based options with zinc oxide or titanium dioxide. Brands like Blue Lizard or Badger are good. Make sure it's at least SPF 30 for both you and your son. Do you see a suitable choice on the shelf? Yes, I see a few options that look suitable. The sunbum sunscreens on the middle shelf are reef-friendly. Also, the Alba Botanica ones to the right are another good choice. Both brands offer mineral-based broad-spectrum protection. Great, which one would you recommend I try? Sunbum is a popular choice and easy to apply, especially for kids. It's reef safe and provides broad-spectrum SPF 50. I'd give that one a try. Perfect. Great. You're welcome. Have a fantastic trip to Hawaii. Thanks, Chad GBT. I will. She is super friendly, by the way. So it's happening in store. But all of these websites and stores that are hoping to win Agenta Commerce, they may lose to something even more upstream. They may lose to the browsers because the AA companies now make their own browsers. I comment an atlas and all the legacy browsers are building robots into the legacy browsers like Edge and Google Chrome. And so it may be that we don't even go to a website to go shopping. We're always shopping. The robot whenever we're in our website. And the browsers may be in for a bad disruption because maybe you don't even use the browser. Maybe the robots just built into your phone and your operating system does the answer before you ever do any of this, right? And that's what the Apple Google announcement was yesterday, is that the robots built into Apple devices. It's built into Google devices. It's built into Microsoft devices. And so we may ubiquitously have the robot, open AI, bot, Johnny Eyes Company for $4 billion to build the robot into all of our brains very likely, right? And this isn't the future. This is already happening. Chad GBT released all of their data from last July. And they gave it to a bunch of Harvard researchers that published a study. It's the study suturee to reference it in her thing. And in that study, they said only 1.9% of all our prompts are trying to buy something. But just so you know, that's 1.9% of 12 billion prompts a day. So I did some public math for you. That's 52 million prompts a day. People are trying to buy something off of Chad GBT last July. And just so you know, you couldn't buy anything on Chad GBT last July. It was a research engine only, but it was already getting 52 million visits a year and they're doubling every six months. So this is probably over 100 million questions that they're getting today. But even if it's still 52 million, just so you know, that makes Chad GBT the ninth largest e-commerce site in the world. Without even having a checkout engine, they're getting more traffic than Apple. They're getting more traffic than Sharpie. There were a top 10 e-commerce site in the world without commerce just based on 1.9% of their prompts being commerce related. And I know most of us do business in the US, so I extrapolated that to the US. It's about 7 million prompts a day in the US, which makes them the 11th largest e-commerce site in the US, bigger than Home Depot or Best Buy already. And it's getting much bigger. So I'm always interested in prove points. I found this great company called Measure Protocol. They have a panel of users that actually give them their Chad GBT logs. So this isn't a survey. This is looking at the data of real users. And if you look at how many searches we're trying to buy salty snacks on the robot, it extrapolates to 6.8 billion prompts a day worldwide, or a month rather, worldwide. So a huge amount. And we know from all of the robot analytics company, this is for my friends at Everton, that each robot has different criteria and is giving us different answers. And we're not doing the same on all the robots. And the robots aren't giving the same answers that the search engines gave. And the robots don't even have the same criteria that people have, right? So the robots for salty snacks care a lot about ingredients and healthfulness. And some of the most popular salty snacks don't do well for those criteria. And when you go, wait, how do the robot decide what was important? The robot is reading tons of micro-influencers blogs to learn what's important. They're reading Reddit to learn what's important. They're not reading our manufacturer's websites. They're not reading our retailer's websites near as much. So if we're going to win the robots, we have to understand what's important to the robots, which is going to change every day. So we need tools and we need business processes to understand what the robots care about, right? In the industry, they're still arguing, but they call it GEO, generative optimization or AEO, answer engine optimization. And my friend Scott has proposed that, hey, those are important, but what you actually need is something more strategic. You actually need agent commerce optimization. You're not just optimizing for the robots, you have to optimize for your product catalog. You have to optimize for the business outcomes. You have to optimize for the customer expectations. And so you actually have this bigger job of which GEO is a small part. And he started a company here at the show, RefiBuy, to try to help brands with that, right? And so this kind of thinking is what we need if we're going to win the robots. And so I want to leave you with one last piece of advice I got from a much murder person. As you may have heard, the CEO of Walmart is retiring this month. I'm super bitter because he's not shy to point out that he's two years younger than me and he's retiring. So just saying. So for the last two years, every meeting that Doug McMillan's gone to at Walmart, do you know how he starts the meeting? Hey y'all, thanks very much for coming to this meeting. I appreciate all your time and attention. Before we get started, how did you use AI to prepare for this meeting? And I asked him once, I said, why are you always asking that question? And he said, well, it's simple. Like, I'm not the fishing merchant anymore. They won't let me pick any products. And John Furner won't let me muck with the US P&L anymore. He owns that, right? And so my job is to be the change engine. The hardest thing in these disruptions, Jason, is not the technology. It's not the strategy. It's getting the 1.6 million Walmart associates to think different. It's the organizational change management. And I'm the head cheerleader for thinking different. So I'm going to keep asking and making people think different about these new things. And do you know what the answer was in that first meeting, the first time he asked the question? How did you use AI to prepare for the meeting? It was a bunch of tricks, it's looking at them. And then some brave soul looked at them and said, Doug, it's illegal to use AI at Walmart. Like, it's been banned. And so think about what's happened over the last two years. They've gone from IT locking down all the AI tools to buying AI tools for all 1.6 million associates, to creating six of their own super agents, Sparky and Marty and at Walmart and the Walmart developer agent. And so what I want to leave you with this final thought is while the tech is important, the strategy is important, we have to think about how we're going to take all those human beings, all those co-workers in our organization and get them comfortable with this disruption so that we don't end up being the Frederick Tutor ice harvesters or the American ice factories. And I know you're all on pins and needles, so I'll leave you with one final fact. My family did in fact make it to Hawaii. So thank you guys very much for your attention, congratulations on an amazing show. Follow rate and share to stay up to date with Retail Genic, your guide to the future of AI Shopping Agents.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The podcast focuses on "agentic commerce," a disruptive shift where AI agents fundamentally change how consumers discover and purchase products, beyond just improving efficiency.
  2. There is significant debate within the industry about the scale and impact of agentic commerce, with opinions ranging from it being a transformative force to an overhyped concept.
  3. Historical examples, like the ice industry's disruption, caution that incumbents often fail to adapt to transformative technological changes, though current retail growth shows both major incumbents and new challengers succeeding.
  4. The core disruption is in the "discovery" phase of shopping, moving away from traditional in-store discovery to AI-influenced purchase journeys, which encompasses both direct AI transactions and AI-influenced purchases.

Summary:

The Retail Genetic Podcast episode discusses the disruptive emergence of "agentic commerce," where AI shopping agents are creating entirely new consumer behaviors beyond mere operational efficiency. The host, Scott Wingo, introduces a keynote by Jason "Retail Geek" Goldberg, which explores whether this AI-driven shift is a monumental transformation or an overhyped trend. Goldberg highlights the industry debate, citing bullish views from tech leaders alongside skeptical analyst opinions.

He uses the historical analogy of the ice industry—where harvesters failed to adapt to factory-made ice, which in turn was disrupted by home appliances—to warn incumbents about the risks of technological disruption. However, current retail data shows growth captured by both giants like Amazon and Walmart and new challengers like Shein and TikTok Shop.

FAQs

Agentic commerce refers to new consumer behaviors driven by AI, where AI agents influence or facilitate purchases in novel ways, rather than just improving efficiency in existing processes.

AI is considered a major disruptive force, comparable to innovations like electricity or the internet, potentially transforming how consumers discover and buy products through AI agents.

Both incumbents and challengers can benefit, but historical disruptions often favor agile newcomers, while some large incumbents may capture significant growth if they adapt effectively.

It refers to the shift from traditional in-store product discovery to new methods driven by AI agents, changing how consumers find and decide to purchase items.

Agentic commerce focuses on enabling entirely new consumer behaviors and purchase journeys, while AI efficiency improvements optimize existing operations like supply chain or marketing.

Brands face existential questions, such as how to handle checkout and payments, the relevance of retail media networks, and adapting to traffic dominated by AI agents rather than humans.

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