Japanese Macro Tails

The macro trading floor. With me, Alfonso Piccadillo, founder of the Macro Compass, and former head of investments at a large European bank. And I am Brent Donnelly, president of Spectre Markets. I've been a portfolio manager, day trader, and market maker at the biggest commercial and investment banks in the United States. I'm also the author of Alpha Trader and the Art of Currency Trading. If you want to know what's going on in markets and where they're going, you found the right podcast. Hi everybody, and welcome back to the macro trading floor. Alpha and Brent with you as always. How are you doing, Brent? Good morning, Alfonso Piccadillo, happy January 14th, 2026. Yes. So what? We got CPI out. Last time we got it, there was a bunch of zeros into it. There was a beautiful work from the BLS to be frank to them. There was also a shutdown, but okay. So this time there were no zeros, but it was a crazy print. There were some very, very strange stuff going on. Like food away from home was to the moon. Other things that go into core PCE were instead lower. Anyway, just to make it short, the way I see this is that when you look at the last three months, Brent in core PCE, including the one that will be derived from this core CPI inflation, core inflation is running at around two and a half percent, something like this on a trending basis, 2.5, 2.6. So as I joke with Mike Lyons, this is a target, right? The new Federal Reserve target is 3 percent, correct? Close enough, I guess. I mean, it is interesting, too, in the context of I would say for the last 12 months or more, I've kind of been more in the inflationist sticky camp, just thinking that a big commodity bull market along with tariffs and then just generally inflationary psychology would all kind of keep inflation sticky. But now if you look at the official data, and then if you look at price stats, which is the state street product that scrapes the web for goods prices, or you look at true inflation, which uses real-time rents instead of owner's equivalent rent, everything kind of seems to show that inflation is kind of over. Like if you look at where we are going, it doesn't seem even like it's sticky up but every percent, like it does seem like there's actually a possibility that we get down closer to 2 percent. And if you believe which I think most people do, that the tariffs created a one-time price level change that maybe contributed in another half a percent to inflation, the tariffs started in February and March. And so obviously we're past the peak of that impact. And now we're going to have a negative base effect as some of the one-time price level changes disappear from the year-over-year numbers pretty soon. So it's, I think it's kind of interesting. And then at the same time you have bonds trying to break 420 so many times and can't. And I think if 10 year yields went to 385, now I think that would be a pretty big surprise for the market. I just don't feel like given, particularly just given the low level of volatility. So I think people don't really expect anything, honestly, like the base case. If you look, if you draw a range for 10 year yields from 2023 to now, the exact middle of the range is 4.15%, which is exactly where we are. And that explains why you know, bond volatility is making multi-year lows. So I think the combination of just this feeling of like we're running at hot, inflation is sticky, the Fed is cutting into deficit spending, like the feeling generally, I think, is like it's pretty hard to imagine bond yields going down to say 380. And to me, it's kind of setting up like maybe that's what's going to happen. Well, that's a provocative thought. I think before I answer on what would that do to markets, I think it's good to talk about the impact of bond market to realize that implied ball on other asset classes. So if you correctly said that if you look, yeah, well, I got to say something interesting from time to time. So when you think about the impact of bond market ball on other markets. So you correctly said, Brenda, if you look at measures of realized and implied ball, such as the moving decks or swapsion implied volatility, you will find that they are very, very low, like they're going in a range which is actually the low side of the range of the last few years. And what this really means is that as in anything when you have low implied ball in a market, there is people that are selling that ball to harvest volatility risk premium, which is the basically to make it simple, the difference between the implied ball and the realized ball of the bond market. And effectively, people selling bond ball means that if the realized bond ball remains low, they make money and these encourages more people to do the same trade. But what happens to the rest of the market when that happens? You should think of different asset classes in the market like a pyramid, I would say. And at the very bottom of the pyramid of the financial stability is the repo market. Above that, it's the bond market, above that is credit and top of it, it's equities and anything risky. And so if you stabilize the pyramid, basically, if the plumbing works, if the bond market ball is low, if you allow people to actually sell low bond market ball and even harvest volatility risk premium and continue, continuing suppressing bond market ball, you stabilize the pyramid and you allow people to buy credit, the top side of the pyramid and then buy equities, et cetera, et cetera. Another simple way to do this is if you overlay bond market ball with equity market multiples, you will find sometimes a decent, at least a decent co-movement. Let me put it like this. So if bond market ball is going down, equity multiples are expanding and so on and so forth. Yeah, I think that's an important point in that a lot of times when yields are going up, you see, especially on Twitter, the yields are going up, this is bad for the stock market. And the reality is that it's much more about the combination of yield direction and volatility. So like if vol's going up and yields are going up, that usually is bad for stocks and that's what we saw in 2022. But then if yields are going up gradually and like they were for a lot of 23 and 24, then that can actually just be a sign that we're normalizing that the world is good and that earnings are going to be good and that's good for equities. So I always find that it's important not just to watch yields but to watch bond market volatility. And then I think a lot of it too is of course we're talking about financial markets, but a lot of it is an output from the real world too, right? Like the volatility of the economic data has been super low. We a lot of people, I mean many people including probably you and me at various times felt like the Fed normalizing at some point was going to break something and it never really did. We've now been in a soft landing for I guess 23, 24, 25 and now into 20, 26 and what that has yielded has been like CPI has always been pretty close between 2.5 and 3.2 GDP's been doing what it's been doing claims to basically been 200 for years. So when economic volatility is low, that feeds through to financial market volatility and then like you said, bond market volatility tends to be the kingpin and FX vols similar. And then on top of all that, you have normally if you go through like the work page on Bloomberg tells you what's priced in for the different central banks. And almost any time if you look back over however many years, you could find one central bank that was about to do a bunch of cuts or a bunch of hikes or entering some kind of cycle. And really none of the major central banks are in any kind of cycle at all. Like you have bullshit hikes priced in for New Zealand or like tiny hikes priced in Australia or like a couple of cuts price for the Fed. But all of this is like baby steps stuff that isn't really necessarily even going to happen. Like we always have to have something priced in. And so it's pretty eye opening to see how little is priced in for any central bank honestly. And all this kind of lays the groundwork for potentially like a some really big trending moves if we get a narrative, but for now obviously it's incredibly bearish fall because there really is no clear macro narrative or divergence trade between central banks other than Bank of Japan, but obviously that's a special situation. Oh, you exactly landed where I wanted you to. I absolutely love the how what did you call them bullshit hikes in RMBZ and New Zealand like completely a completely agree please please please hikes in New Zealand in a year before elections that's not going to happen. But the I think the conclusion that you can draw from this is that I talked about ball market ball. You talked about broad macro data ball brand, which is also very very interesting. I mean there was a paper from Cliff Asnes shop HQR that talked about a strategy that was based on macro data momentum, which is very interesting right. Effectively what they did is they looked at macro data releases and then they looked at the expectation, the service and then what they did is they looked at the deviation. Of course the surprise index basically they built a surprise index of growth and inflation in various countries and they realized that effectively trends. So you you will have trending macro surprises from time to time and you can actually trade the signal that says oh instead of looking at price action let's look at macro data surprises. So of course a much slower signal because you need to wait for the data and then you need to wait for more monthly data so it's going to take you three months minimum until you get the signal but you know you're basically saying there is no surprise index right now like the ball is it's going to be very very low. So there is no ball market ball. There is no macro data ball and then when there is none of this it's pretty boring you buy stonks and yeah I'm sorry to say that but you know you have to trade the market that is in front of you not what you wish there was. Although when it comes to macro tales brand I think Japan is very interesting and nevertheless you're about to say okay we can talk about Japan in a sec for sure because I have some comments on that too just it made me think of something that in my new book I talk about or it's it's not out yet but when it comes out it I talk about I'm good at marketing but I talk about looking at the derivative of different series like so what cliff would be talking about there would be like the derivative of the economic data etc. And I was thinking about this morning about FX ball it's just so low obviously right like we said bond market ball is so low but one thing word of caution is to people especially I guess people that are newer in the market is when you look at ball and it's super super low it tends to always look attractive like anything you price up looks cheap obviously because of ball is so low but obviously ball is low for a reason and my experience has been that you the best time to buy balls when it's rising but it's still low so like you don't want to try to buy ball when it's low and it's at the lows it's better to buy rising ball and then to sell ball when it's high but it's falling and I think the temptation is very often to sell into ball when it's rising as well because partly because just you know the levels but also it feels like like say FX ball whatever thing you're trading is at five and a half and then there's some kind of new narrative and regime shift starts and now it's at 7% but the overall range is like five to 15 over the years but when it goes from five to seven you're like ah I can't pay seven it's or you know it's too high so I think human nature is like everyone wants to buy it at five but because ball is persistent and it just stays in a regime it'll just stay at five for ages but when it goes from five to seven you know then the derivative of of the price or or the derivative of the ball is changing in a way that could be a meaningful signal that's telling you okay probably there's a regime shift and actually you ironically you're much better off buying it at seven than you were buying it at five do that make sense yes these are actually wise words although it's counterintuitive right but this is the nature of ball is like a mean reversing process with huge clusters so right right exactly I think that's the that's the point is that people look at you look at a chart of all and it looks so mean reverting that you just want to buy the low thing and sell the high thing but people forget about the clustering aspect which is absolutely you know painful like so so painful if you don't acknowledge it listen to people like brand and I who have actually lost money we can we can tell you so that you also don't have to lose money trying to do the same thing right so you we have some scars that we we have absolutely yes okay so Japan I we need to talk about it because your last piece at AMFX I love it it's what's time is the minister of finance so bit of a background there brand has a beautiful hoodie that says what time is the BOJ in Japanese so it's just beautiful proper merchandise I would say because nobody ever knows what time is the freaking central band meeting it's you know it's anymore anyone's guess this time it's what time the minister of finance will intervene in the yen right that's the question everybody's asking so brand why don't you tell us what time will they intervene please yeah yeah so it's interesting because the general approach I'll try not to go on too long about this but because I don't know how many people are interested but the general approach that the ministry of finance takes is they look at the speed of the move and dollar yen and they look at the levels and then they compare that to fundamentals however you want to frame that and when there's a high speed move to an important level and it goes against fundamentals then they deem it possibly necessary to intervene and that can mean buying dollar yen at 80 like they were for ages or selling it at 160 like they did in in 2022 and 2024 so there's all these models that different banks have it and things like that but at the same time they also just say in the market like here's what we're thinking and generally there's kind of a scale of rhetoric and they're pretty much at the highest highest point now which is ready to take bold action on yen which is kind of like a signal they are obviously that they're ready historically that's been what they've said before they intervene and then communicating with foreign partners which they've also said Kadeyama spoke to Besen this week about a bunch of stuff but also about the end and so my thesis is right now is that they'll probably intervene somewhere between here and like 161 so I've been I'm partially short dollar yen I sold half my thing yesterday but I was hoping to sell more but it didn't quite get to my level but as we get closer to 160 even though the speed condition hasn't been met because dollar yen hasn't moved that fast I think the amount of rhetoric that they've they've been throwing at the market and then the fact that dollar yen is rising while interest rate differentials are going the other way which has been like a huge puzzle for a long time because the g7 mantra is essentially that currency rate should reflect fundamentals like that's the first line of every g7 statement on currency markets and it is honestly pretty easy to say like obviously there's reasons that the end is weakening mostly because of people's concerns about fiscal and jgb on wines and all that but at the same time from a really basic textbook point of view rate differentials are saying dollar yen should be you know 220 big figures lower so they have all the reasoning that they need I think and so the interesting thing too is normally when you get to the big levels and the probability of intervention rises people start buying dollar yen puts right obviously that makes sense because you think that if the the intervene dollar yen is going to drop 3% in five minutes you know you're going to get a lot out of owning downside but the the risk reversal actually hasn't moved yet so the market hasn't really priced in any probability of intervention and so to me it's attractive to be short dollar yen on a 159 handle the very difficult thing is risk managing it because the more it goes up the more you want to sell because the the probability of intervention goes up in a non-linear way as dollar yen goes up so it's super annoying because if you're short at 15950 and it goes to 161 then your convictions like five times as high as it was at 159 so the only real way to do it unfortunately is to just use a really wide stop and and scale in because if you try to pick the perfect level that's great but a lot of times the intervention actually comes because of of a huge acceleration to the top side so you have to kind of position in a way that gives you like 300 points of of room and this is one of the few instances where I think you will hear Brent telling you to add to a losing position because that's literally what I was talking about yeah going at 159 and a half and then it starts going against you and then the probability distribution at that point because basically you have a policy maker put pretty much they're just behind you you don't know exactly when but they are behind you and so you basically double down a losing position which you know if my mentor would hear me say that he would absolutely try to shoot me in the head I guess the difference is that you have an ex ante plan so it's not like you're like oh shit I'm getting screwed I better double down because I'm my accounts about to blow up if I don't you know get a better average it's more like okay I'm going to sell here I'm going to sell here here and here and my stop plus is going to be here because there is always a possibility that you know this is a new administration and they're just saying stuff and they're not actually going to do anything and Delian's going to 180 you know like that always has to be a possibility in your mind yeah I think any sort of level of confidence above like 7.7 out of 10 can be disastrous with the trade like this because then yeah then you could keep adding because say your plan was to sell from here to 161 for intervention and then it goes to 163 and they don't intervene now it's that one that is at 168 and you still haven't stopped out you know that's how you blow up is is going into something like this with no plan so to me if it goes above 163 my whole idea is completely wrong and and I'll just move on exactly and the ability to move on when the idea is wrong is another thing that the scars will actually bring it on you because if you don't you just get zeroed every time right and then at some point the account will basically tell you that you know you need to find another hobby or if you're a trader you get fired basically so you know you have to get that skill effectively in your toolbox and may I advance a more long-term macro discussion about Japan of course I'm one of these guys that has these trades on for six months basically so now Brent talked about the trade for this week or I don't know maybe next actually you know I'll just make one more point about what you're kind of alluding to is that the question with these interventions is always like whether they'll work and for how long and I will say the market is not very convinced that this intervention if if and when it happens will work and the market will be lining up to buy dollar yen I want 54 maybe even one 55 so it's yeah it's much more of a tactical thing I'm describing so anyways go ahead correct so now I want to talk about my friends at the Bayer J so the market has basically decided that Japan is running a mix of policy where you need to punish the currency and long end bonds and you need to buy equities which effectively means the Bayer J is way too loose in the front end versus you know nominal growth and perceived nominal growth on top of fiscal deficits that are coming so the market says okay if you don't do something in the front end and I'm gonna do it in the currency and in the long end for you that's been going on for Japan for like maybe a year a bit longer may I advance the very dangerous statement which has never proven to be correct over the last 12 months that may be the bank of Japan wants to stop the bleeding a little bit at least you know like appears to be a responsible central bank so all I'm trying to say is the following if you have base rates at 75 basis points and then have a range of neutral where your midpoint is 175 a hundred basis point higher okay and then you have inflation at 3% for three and a half years which is literally what's the case for Japan and then you have Takaichi doing a huge supplementary budget and then you have her probably doing more fiscal deficit in 2026 may I recommend that from a risk reward perspective it would be wise for the bank of Japan to go to tell the market we are going to neutral at least like relatively quick and that will take a hundred basis point hike from 75 bips to 175 bips and that will be reasonably done in steps of a hike every 3 months I am just defining not even a hawkish central bank just a somehow normally responsible central bank here so what I'm trying to advance is that the risk reward for the BOJ here has gotten worse and worse in keeping this policy ultra ultra ultra loose because you cannot stop the end from weakening you will have further inflationary pressures the long end of the bond market is also showing some signs and more more overbrand I mean the confidence they must have in nominal growth in Japan sorry for fuck sake it must be higher now you have had 5% wage growth for three years in a row like what are you waiting for anymore so frankly I think with the deficit from Takaichi that are coming on top of it I do think that the bank of Japan has more evidence to balance out policy and if I look at the curve of what's prized in various bank of Japan meetings in the entire year we have two hikes now if I am a responsible central bank I don't see any reason why it shouldn't be three or four hikes one every three months like a completely standard boring hiking cycle towards neutral now what does it do to the yen okay first of all if you agree with me the trade is in rates not in the yen because the yen is always a proxy for rates differential and as Brent told us before yeah in other episodes good luck trading the currency as a proxy for rates differential I am referring to you guys who bought the Aussie dollar for two years because rates were going up in Australia and yet the currency wasn't responding so if you think that rates should be higher in Japan then the forwards are pricing especially like the speed of the rate hikes should be higher than you trade rates you don't trade the yen but I think Brent correct me if I'm wrong if B.O.J goes to 175 over the next 12 months I would think that the yen trades a little bit better structuring what it is now or it doesn't matter because it's like Korea where there are other reasons why the Korean won this week yeah I think it's a little bit of both because what you're describing would definitely outhawk the market so I think that would it would lend some support because maybe there is a point I think the confusing thing to me is the old argument was always that you know the bank of Japan is a part of the government and they're trying to keep financing costs low in order to you know make interest rates be sorry interest costs be reasonable because the debt is so big relative to GDP and all that but they're actually just making the back end sell off like crazy and they're not necessarily like helping things very much in terms of the refinancing costs so I don't really get it anymore other than just like institutional and or share or whatever but I think if they actually did go to more of like a standard normalization then I think that would probably actually support the back end probably would encourage life first to rotate out of foreign assets and back into Japan a little bit because the stability would return to the back end and it would be bullish yen but is there any reason to believe like I understand why they should do that but is there any reason to believe that they actually will like I'm not sorry I see you're laughing but I'm not being sarcastic I'm laughing because this was a valid question for the last 12 months I mean I could have advanced the very similar thesis for the last 12 months of course it's like your yen idea the longer this goes on this market balance the more I can say louder right now of course as you know around a hedge fund so last year I tried it a couple of times without great success because they always under deliver the forwards so you're hearing from a guy that tried already and failed doesn't mean that this is not the third time lucky in the sense that what do I have in my on my side more than last year brand time I just have time basically there's been another year going on with the same 5% wedge growth with the same weakening of the yen with the same weakening of the long ends which isn't a bad argument honestly sometimes that's all it is this time right they just need to see enough evidence I think or I hope also the other thing is skew in a trade like this because I'm sorry but they're not cutting rates so you know exactly how much you're gonna lose if you do the rates in the trading rates you know exactly how much you're gonna lose in this because you know there are certain amount of high price okay they can do a little bit less than that but it's a very bound max defined loss type of idea and are you doing a curve trader you just doing the front end or where very front end there is like you can do some very specific things like central bank meetings whoops which are very cool this have been introduced more liquidly in about maybe six seven years ago I would say so you can do a swap that targets literally a central bank meeting right it's you know if you go and we're on Bloomberg you can find all this central bank pricing for each meeting you can actually trade these so you could say oh I think by that meeting I can do a trade for example I mean I can go into details so people just ping me on Bloomberg if you want to talk about it and you know I can just share some more insights here but Japan I don't know brand I mean you are tactically want to go along the Japanese yen I don't like going along the currency unless you turn proper hawkish it's hard because the other problem with Japan is what you said before it's the lifers I mean take Korea a very similar example I always think about this so the central bank of Korea has rates at two and a half percent two and a half in Korea is a respectable rate you know it's like neutral basically they have inflation at two so it's not like oh inflation is out of control and they're doing some fiscal okay fine but the currency is trading like a piece of crap and you wouldn't say that right but what is the problem there is that the NPS the public national public system fund basically yeah they don't hedge anything they just basically take the current account surplus and the money that Korea generates and they turn them into dollars and they buy dollar assets so you have a continuous gigantic outflow out of Korea every month which is the NPS buying foreign assets and that's more than enough to keep the Korean one week right and I mean that's a big deal in Japan too right the niece of flows especially we saw that at the start of the year it's a little bit reminiscent of 2004 567 with Mrs. Watanabe and seeking higher returns offshore and then that ends up weakening the currency and then eventually it creates a situation where repatriation flows can be important but but obviously who knows when that's going to happen and and I I guess the thing too about that one last point on the MOF is given the amount of interest in the decay now too they probably want to be a little bit more careful like they don't want really dying at 140 or 135 they just want it to stop going up but like you can only ask for so much as a as a central banker or as a ministry of finance you can't have everything that you want all the time yes okay Japan is done some talks about US macro and how boring is and the ball and bond market ball is done is there anything else we should talk about today precious metals I guess you know one thing that that's interesting is like because I'm not a commodity's person I look around and it kind of feels like we're in this commodity ball market commodity super cycle or something like that and I lazily said something to that effect in my piece and then a friend of mine who trades mostly eggs and energy responded to me and he said honestly I would say we're in a commodity bear market with a massive ball market in metals and if you look around and then I looked at the data it's actually true like most commodities are unchanged since the start of 2024 or lower and in fact it's really only metals that are going up so I thought that was an interesting observation from a few points of view it first of all for inflation that you know it's obviously not nearly as inflationary if only metals are going up and energy and eggs are going are flat or down now energy's rallied a bit in the last few days but overall has not been participating so it matters for inflation and then it also potentially might matter if anyone remembers other commodity ball markets there tends to be two aspects to them one is the supply demand dynamic in the commodity itself and then the other one is how many financial speculators are participating in the ball market because these markets are just so much smaller than say bond or effects markets so if you know in the classic example was 0607 or sorry in pre 2008 when for the first time Wall Street decided commodities was an asset class and all the money tried to get in and then all the money tried to get out and so I think there is an interesting aspect to that too that if everyone sees the same thing which is there's a shortage of metals AI CapEx solar you know assets that don't have any counterparty risk like precious metals there's a really good story around it that it does also encourage probably an overshoot and financial speculation because you're not going to make money you know riding corn or oil or not gas these days so everyone is focused on all the like basically on either precious or the catch up trades in nickel and tin and all that stuff so just just something that I think is worth keeping in mind is that we're used to commodities being this monolithic blob that goes up and down but honestly it's not even close to being true right now that's all right so there's precious metals and there is pretty much everything else precious and industrial metals I should say yeah just metals in general yeah yeah tin aluminum copper all picking up pretty aggressively too but at the end of the day I think the real core of the move brand is silver and gold I mean we're talking about as you say the typical policy maker protest asset as I call them like oh it's the long enough bond markets and now it's stocks and now it's metals you know it's often the same release bulbs at the end of the day and then yeah there is also very strong geopolitical argument for gold to be very honest brand I mean when you are the US and you take off the Venezuelan leader and you say to China effectively oh okay so you guys used to you still have the largest trade surplus in the world by the way news not to be taken lightly is that the Chinese trade surplus is the biggest ever again so tariff no tariff they just redirect and eat the entire world when it comes to the competitiveness of what they export which also means brand that they keep getting a surplus to reinvest somewhere right and the US basically told them oh so you can't buy treasuries that's pretty clear because if something goes wrong like Europe took over the Russian assets we might take over yours so that's something that started back in 2022 already right it's diversification into gold but now they told China oh with the Silicon Road initiative and other stuff you have bought about a couple of trillions of foreign direct assets right in Africa or in Latin America for example and now yeah well sorry but your investments in Venezuela are of debatable return basically effectively we will decide which kind of return you get and how and this is also I mean what would you do if you were China by this way by any other central bank around the world you would probably think I need to diversify into some other reserve asset to be honest it's the only thing responsible thing that I should do right yeah and I think that's been an important theme for a couple of years but obviously much more recently in metals is that there's very few safe havens in the world now because like if you if you don't consider US bonds to be a safe haven the end doesn't work as a safe haven Swiss Frank is okay but it doesn't really work that great then you you're really if you especially if you want assets that don't have counterparty risk you know what are you left with basically gold and silver and it just feels like these days all roads lead to gold and silver like good news bad news you know geopolitical concerns but then also risky asset rallies and and kind of metals go up so it's like it feels like all roads lead to higher precious metal these days for well for it has been true for a while but now we're going kind of the other key thing my friend is that if you want to allocate your foreign reserves to say euros with Frank you need to buy the bonds that's how you do it you just don't park euros you need an instrument normally you buy t-bills or bonds shorted bonds of these countries sorry to announce that Switzerland basically doesn't have a bond market it's really really small and then what like you are going to buy bonds right that's basically what you can do but you still will have a counterparty risk right you will have Germany's a counterparty risk I'm sorry Germany is unsafe but Germany is part of a specific political axis geopolitical axis right so if you are I don't know the central bank of Brazil just to say one what would you prefer gold or boons right or if you're China and you think there's a even a 5% chance that you're going to go into Taiwan in the next five years then you're you know all your assets in Germany are going to be seized just like I got seized and that's what I meant with the specific geopolitical axis I mean if you're China sorry but you come by boons because yeah the same as having treasure is from a geopolitical perspective right right there's no difference yeah and that's this is a very fascinating discussion and we should have one I don't I don't know if it's tradable I mean you can follow the long term trend in gold sure or increase gold as an asset allocation in your portfolio but it is indeed very interesting I would say that's enough for the day all right sounds good okay then are you off next week or are we going to do one again uh I'm gonna be back I'm actually leaving today I'm going on a five-day silent retreat so it's other going to be terrible or excellent I'm not sure which one yet so first I'll have done it we'll figure it out next week uh that means next week there will be another episode guys as always if you want to be in touch just being a sun bloomberg and we can chat about everything you want talk soon the content provided on the macro trading floor podcast is for general information purposes only no information or other content provided in this podcast should be considered as investment advice seek independent professional 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