“It’s Gonna Be a BLOODBATH” Midterm Elections Predictions With Piers Morgan | Feat Prof Jiang

(dramatic music) - The bloodbath that Republicans are gonna see this year started with Epstein, and it's gonna end with the Iran War. - Unpopular war leads to defeat for the incumbent party 100% of the time. - It's gonna be a bloodbath, Pearson. - It's not just his war, but his terrorists. That was all on him. - What are you predicting for the midterm? - I have seen no idea. I know what the fourth is saying. - I love the honesty, Professor Zhang. - No bullshit. - I don't even know if the merchant has actually happened. - What do you mean? - There could be an October surprise. There may be a master casually event during this war that will compel a very strong American response. (dramatic music) - Well, coming up the definitive unsensitive midterm's prediction panel, many of the reputations being torched by ill-fated predictions on the show, but can anyone really get it wrong this time? We'll find out. Joining us first is the host of Fox and Friends, and the author of United States. Six crucial moments that forged the American miracle. Brian, kill me. Well, the tables are finally turned. - Yes. - Where I get to grill you, kill me. - Yes. - In an unsafe manner. - The other life, man. - I'm nervous of you right now. - Well, put it this way. I've been training. I've been studying your tapes. They go back generations. I am ready for this moment. I've talked to your family members, enemies and friends. I am ready. - Well, let's see how ready you are. 'Cause you've written this book, very interesting book, called United States. Now, this is your seventh history book. You're a bit of a historian. And they're all very readable. I've enjoyed it, but you say in the book, you cover The Boston Massacre, Washington's Battlefield Strategy, The Battle of New Orleans, Louisiana Purchase, Chase Rebellion, and John Quincy Adams fighting a slavery. Three of them, so half of the battles you've chosen involve you as a nation fighting the British. You even had a fourth one because if it wasn't the fear of another war, Napoleon was ready, getting ready for it with Britain, Louisiana Purchase probably wouldn't have taken place. So I wouldn't even add that. So to me, early days in America, and I've talked to you about this, and I've talked to other people of British descent. And they say, you know, we don't consider the revolution a big of a deal. You guys are focused on it. But for us, it's a huge deal. And for me, it happened all around me. I mean, it happened a long hour on the battle and the long hour on it. It happened in Brooklyn, it happened in Boston, it happened in Virginia. I'm there all the time playing your favorite sports soccer and then coaching years later. And what I would always do is go to the sites of Washington's birth and the Battle of Bunker Hill and all these things. So I had the passion for it. And I just didn't want to make this a war book. To me, it was the different moments in our past as I salute 250 years of us, of what made our country what it was today and how fortuitous we were for it to happen. Look at the break our way so often that it almost plays into anyone who says that America, the idea and the country was divinely inspired. - Well, what you think the idea of America really is when you've given it a lot of thought. - Okay, the non-Harvard, the non-Oxford thought, this is what I really have gone to know what it is. Because I really had to get a sense of leaving America and understand what else was going on in the world. It's an opportunity to achieve freedom and liberty and whatever your potential is as a human being. The opportunity to achieve that. To no guaranteed outcomes but opportunity. And I'm not talking about capitalism. Maybe your achievement is to be the greatest person of all time. Maybe you always want to be a farmer and you're born to a shopkeeper back then. Maybe you always want to be a pilot. But you know what, you don't know anybody as a pilot. Not in our system, it's not going to work. The idea that you as a human being had an opportunity to fulfill your destiny, your personal potential. That's what America is. But with that is the sense of community where it's not just about Brian Killme to Pierce Morgan. It's about taking care of your neighbor, a sense of ethics, taking care of your community, a sense of community, since you're taking care of your country, a sense of patriotism. So collectively, an opportunity from man to achieve perfection as close as possible, morally, spiritually and economically. And I did not know because you only learn one thing in America and so on studies. And maybe you too, you get it from the American perspective. But when you take a jog around the world at the time leading up to that, that idea was pretty new. And these people called King's Queens and absolute monarchs. Didn't love the idea of freedom for all and liberty. And they were pushing back on it. Well, we have people that we look at it and Donald Trump is a longtime friend of both of us. Yeah, there's a sense of monarchical rule about Trump in a way. You know, I always, much as he would not, I mean, he does, he loves the royal family, his family, his mother. He does. Huge monochist. But I think if Trump could bring back the British monochist tomorrow and be the King, he'd absolutely love it. In a way, he would, by the way, he likes you better. Know that about it. I guess the apprentice you really bonded. And I know what you're going to say, he can't play with him. So, I'll tell you on that, you know, he, he, when I became the assembly apprentice, the first one, 2008. And I knocked out all the Americans, one by one, including finally, in the semi-final, I knocked out Lennox Lewis. It was like, it was British, but off he went. And Trump in the live finale said, "Beauty said you're tough, you're ruthless, you're possibly brilliant, I don't know, but you beat the hell out of everyone and you're my celebrity apprentice." And then when he won the presidency, eight years later, I sent him a note. Donald, you're tough, you're ruthless, you're possibly brilliant. I don't know, but you beat the hell out of everyone and you're the president of the United States. It was a long eight years from the apprentice boardroom to him getting to the White House. Amazing story, which is how I got to know him and everything else. - Here's what the brilliance of your question is. You're right, Trump wants power. You know, I just wanted power. Bush, Clinton, Obama. He's doing differently. They don't go out in front of the microphones and arbitrarily say it. I want to build a ballroom. I want to do this. But within our system is built to push and pull and legislate and it drives Trump nuts. What do you say the other day? Supreme Court. I put these guys in the Supreme Court. They don't rule my direction. I make you three huge mistakes. Ladies and gentlemen, drum roll, please. That's the setup of the American democracy. It's built to frustrate. So there is no king and queen. If he said I am disbanding Congress, I would say you're right. He wants to be an autocrat. But what he tries is he's for rangs, he pushes, he looks to go around. You know, look to go around President Obama. But he's so eloquent, so well-spoken, he's so composed, he's composed and so cool, dancing with Ellen and doing his thing. You got that guy, can't be that offensive. He's doing the same thing as Trump. Only Trump pitches right in the face. And Obama is very true. - It's very true. I never bought into the Obama saintly thing because if you study his record, he kept Guantanamo Bay open when he said he would close it. He waged a legal drone program. He dropped more bombs than a calendar year than any other American president. You know, he blinked with Putin in Syria and let Putin in there. He did lots of things. He deported over 3 million people. Way more than Trump has ever done pro-rata per year. So there were lots of things about Obama, which when I explained them to my liberal friends, I like, really, I didn't know that because he wasn't as offensive rhetorically to them. So he didn't whine them up the same way. He did all the sort of dignity of the office stuff very well. Trump doesn't care about that. And that's why he got elected and why he's so unpopular with so many Americans as well. He's both. He's the ultimate, what we would call "Marmate" figure in the UK. Are you familiar with "Marmate"? It's a bit like you. - No, can you help me with that? - Yeah, it's a rather distasteful yeast-based product which people either love or hate. I happen to love it in the same way I love you. Many people, as you know, find you hideously distasteful. That's the problem with "Marmate". You're either in it or into the "Marmate" thing and taste or you're not. Trump is like that. There's no, I don't, you know, many people are going, "You know, I don't know what to think about Donald Trump." They all know what to think. They love him or they hate him. Nobody likes thinking about life insurance, but we all know that we need it. For me, it was asking myself a simple question. If something happens to me, or what happens to the people that I care about, it's an uncomfortable question. But an important one and life insurance can take off a lot of the worry. The problem, as it getting hold of it, can be a nightmare. Medical exams, phone calls with agents, weeks of waiting. It puts people off and that is dangerous. Ethos is completely different. It's 100% online. You get a quote in seconds, applying minutes, and can get same-day coverage. No medical exam. You just answer a few health questions online. 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I don't think it was no big deal. I think it was a big deal, all right, huge deal. Big mistake for the president's say go over there. I don't think he wanted what he wanted. I don't want him to bait that, but I don't soft pedal that. But they're gonna study president forever. And then they overdid it. And I talked to you about this on and off camera with going after him legally, made the president. And number one, they tried to question his toughness. He's the toughest guy around. He's not gonna break. They tried to bankrupt him. They almost did. Not gonna break and then tried to kill him. So he's not gonna break. But it made me really press. They're gonna study Trump for generations and they're gonna study the power of presidency. There's gonna be different presidents who are gonna be big thinkers. We're not gonna have manipulate Washington. There's gonna be other people that are just gonna be figure out a way legislatively to get things done. You know what I hope we go through Pierce? And you guys go through too, is that we go through an era of compromise. Where I go as hard as I can at President Pierce Morgan, right? And then in the end, I try to get as much as I can and I do a deal. I am so tired of witnessing people. I totally, I totally agree. I totally agree. And I wait for the next election. I totally agree. I think we've lost that ability in public life. And it's so dispiriting. Everyone takes their tribal silo. They don't wanna come out of it. They wanna admit any wrongdoing on their side. The only see in the other side. Refusing to compromise. Refusing to do deals. Refusing to come together in the way that countries used to. We've had the same thing in Britain. In a way Trump broke it in America because of the passionate reaction to him either way. Brexit over here. Did it for us where people, you know, felt it was the first time I could remember people falling out with family members. You know, actually not inviting family around for Christmas or Thanksgiving. You know, we had it over Brexit in the UK. You've had the same phenomenon over Trump in America. And it's really sad because I never doubt for a moment Trump loves America or, you know, wants the best for the country. I disagree with some of the ways he goes about it. And I agree with other ways. And I'm intellectually honest enough to call out both. You're the same. And actually, what's really interesting about talking to you today is you had a big blow up moment on social media a few days ago when on Fox and Friends. You had a big debate with one of your co-hosts on Rachel Campus Duffy on Ukraine and the Trump-Russian diesel deal. And we've got to clip of this. I want to show viewers a bit of this. So Zelensky's frustrated because now all this money is going to flow into Russia who started this whole war unprovoked. They're the bad guys. And there is no way Zelensky turned down any plausible deal. In fact, since that time, when they told him he was going to lose the Donbass, he has gained back portions of the Donbass. Are you saying that there were not peace efforts that were not-- There was no plausible, a practical peace effort that-- If I'm a Putin would participate in, effectively, there would end this war. There's one person in who is responsible. Vladimir Putin, that is it. Yeah, there was a-- And he's getting his ass kicked. I achieved when I watched that because not for the first time, you were not afraid to express your own opinion, even if it wasn't the one held by your colleagues. Secondly, because I go on Fox News a lot and really enjoy it. And that was a good example of Fox News at its best where you do have very spirited debate sometimes about big issues of the day. You're not all blindly singing from the same song sheet as I see on many other networks. So I really like it when you guys go at it like that. But thirdly, I just thought you were right. In the end, you were right. Putin is an evil dictator. And the moment you deviate from that view, that's why I was so pissed off with Trump and he did the diesel thing because it's pure tokenism. It doesn't make any difference materially. But it just sends a signal that he's somehow-- Right, you know, I'm done with Ukraine. I'm in with Vladimir Putin. Why would he want to do that? I don't know, it's a day and a half of diesel. You know, I'm not Mr. Energy guy, but you know, 500 million tons of diesel sounds like a lot, but it's not. And they're not to blame for the price of diesel. It's Iran. Iran blowing up the Gulf state neighbor's refineries. Yes, they have very little to do with it. Yeah, no, I agree. I mean, that would bring me around to-- it's interesting, but the midterm's coming, isn't it? Because if people think may well happen, the Republicans lose the House and the Senate. It's a myth on the Senate. I think the House, both people think, is probably gone. Yeah, I would chart it back. Not to what Trump did when he first came back into power, because a lot of the stuff he did was really effective, you know, shutting the border and executive orders and taking all the work crap and everything else. It would probably come down to the decision to attack Iran. And all the fallout from that, particularly on domestic prices and cost of living. Would you-- would you see it like that? If he ends up losing the whole of Congress, would you see it as that being the catalyst? Because it's extended for eight months, instead of eight weeks or eight days. Sure, but the objective I get, you know. People say it's a word of choice, not really. For 47 years, this has been non-stop. I mean, literally, every day I come-- I'm different from you, Pearson. I come to work. I got-- I do tabs, 1970 style tabs, on all the different topics that we have. Because I have no idea what the show is going to be. From my radio show to the TV show, and I do one nation on Sundays, and they ask me to fill in for Jesse or whatever. And I just go, whatever these producers want, am I OK, you want to go? Every day, Iran's on there. Iran killed 603 of our guys during the record. They never paid the price. They are the hub behind the blowing up of Israel. They are behind Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad. They were behind the side. They keep them in power to a massacre, millions of people on a regular basis. They are the houthi, the power behind the houthis. They are the problem. So the President saw the massacre in January, and these people rose up on armed. And they literally killed 20,000, 20,000, 40,000 of them. And they're still hanging them on a daily basis. He took his shot, and he blew up two levels, maybe three levels of their government. And they're not ready to go yet. And here we are in election, and their response has been, we can't to beat America, but we can make them pay with energy. But in the long run, it's a good move. In the short run, it's not a great political move because he forced the price of groceries and gas and oil. But what Trump has on his side is that his policies are going to get gas and oil down to $2.89 if you do the conversion of Britain really quick, because he drills. He uses pipelines, he fracks, he cuts deals, the Venezuela situation, he refines the investment. It's all there. So what it happens is it's being strained by the straight. But in the big picture, that's a risky took. The other thing he's going to have is they're pushing it now with the houthi rebels in Saudi Arabia and trying to get the price over $100 a barrel. They're going to pay the price after the midterms. They have a strategy in place. The IDF is going to be enacted. And I think they're going to finish him off for good. And this is their moment. This is their moment to come to the table and disarm and denuclear and de-lucrophile whatever the correct word is. And they're not going to do it. So it was the decision. But I don't necessarily think it's the wrong decision. I think it was the hardest decision he ever made. I'm sure that's true. I think it will turn out to be the wrong decision, not because I want to stand up for Iran. I think they're a awful, terrible regime. And I'd be very glad to see the back of them. I think the problem is, as he's discovered, they've worked out if you control these straits of water through which energy flows, you can basically screw up the world's energy market. And it's a problem that they now know that. And the houthis are trying the same thing and so on. I just want to end, Brian, because on your website, it says you spent 10 years doing stand-up comedy. You hide that so well. You were a funny guy, right? Well, what I tried to do is when I'm trying to break down Pierce, you had instant success. I didn't, you were a great writer. I wasn't. But when I got out of college, I just said, I want to be in front of the camera and sports or news. And the one thing that I said, well, I'm waiting for that job, trying to get that great job. I said, what could producers and news directors not be in control of? And how could I improve? And I said, well, if I could learn to do stand-up on stage, learn to interact with the audience, react to anything on the fly, I would be a better anchor and a host. And I thought I had pretty good sense of humor. I think I had to learn how to write jokes and figure out what my identity was. What was your best joke? Well, I used to do observational humor. And I said, the one thing I would always say is, isn't it a great idea that in the wanted photos in the post office, they put the fingerprints at the bottom. So many times, I think I see this punk robber. And I'm not sure if I recognize him. Then I notice the symmetry and width of his thumb lines and suddenly I'm able to call the cops to be an instant hero. And those are the types of things we'll bring the house down. But it just helps you because you know the format in the morning that you thrive on. And when Fox and Friends, there's a lot of air. You know what, you look in the prime to two. Sometimes it says, sometimes it says, discuss. At which time I have no idea what Lawrence is going to say. And you're able to kind of think I did a morning show for five years. I thought I had a lot of energy until I met you, honestly. I don't think I've ever met anyone who is more of a human duracel battery that never needs to be charging. You are, your work rate is unbelievable. And it always has me. I mean, you do hours in the morning. And you do hours on your radio show. Then you do hours about the stuff. You find time to write endless history books. And so where do you get this from? Well, I have no friends. No one's asking me to hang out. And number two is I don't golf. And number three is that my kids got older. I used to coach them all in soccer and basketball. Now that they got older, I don't feel guilty if I stay past three, four o'clock. And now Roger L's when he ran Fox said, you do show you go home. And then I convinced him, let me do the radio show and that's it. And then all of a sudden, the news Suzanne Scott has said, if you can help out, help out. And that's what created such a team atmosphere. And I'm not putting words in your mouth, but isn't there a team atmosphere in this building? Oh, 100%. It's a friendly, it's a friendly, it's a friendliest place I have ever worked. Honestly, it is. And also I always say to people, you know, I've done a lot of shows there from yours to the five, to Fox and Frasur. No one's ever told me what I should or shouldn't say. I've always been given total free reign to say what the hell I like. And I saw Greg Gutfeld say the same thing. It was the 30th anniversary of Fox last week. And you know, I'm a big fan because I think you do have a lot of disparate voices on there. You're obviously by far the most successful channel now. And people who don't really know Fox news, sneer at it from afar, but I've always really enjoyed appearing on it. And particularly the free reign you get to be whatever you want to be. Yeah, I mean, I've never seen anyone fit in as well as you. I mean, at the minute, I see you in the green room, I feel like I'm in the locker room. You are just so freaking funny. And you're always so demeaning to me. I go, this guy is actually, he knows me my whole life. And this is great. It actually feels like it's good. And the first thing you always do is make fun of me. And that kind of-- Yeah, because you always laugh. Because you're very-- I always think about who are my favorite people? They're people who not only make me laugh, but can take a joke at themselves. If you can't laugh at yourself, I'm not interested in being that friendly with you. But you are able to do that. Now, admittedly, you have a lot to laugh at with yourself. So there's a lot of material to go with. But you're able to do that. Brian, it's great to talk to you. United States, six crucial moments at Ford's American Miracle. It's a cracking, but really interesting analysis, based on these battles about what made America. The very great country is. I'm a massive fan of America, of Americans. Even-- and this pains me to admit it. Even you. Brian Killmey. One of my favorite people in America. One of my favorite Americans. I'm not afraid to admit it. There I've done it. It's out there now, forever. I can't. I can't retract it. Brian Killmey. I'm time with Trump. I'm time with Trump. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. It's always nice to have me on on Blanche Week. It really means a lot. Congratulations. I know you're entrepreneurial success. I watch your program. I watch your podcast all the time. It is always compelling and I can't shut it off. Cheers. Thanks so much. You know what? One day, Brian, you will be as good as me. You just keep working, son. Do you put the hours in? I think this will happen. Please, please. Congratulations towards you. Go ahead. Thanks. Well, the midterm elections are now just weeks away. And there are about as consequential as any that I can remember. A second Trump presidency, which began with such resounding expectation, could end as the first one did in gridlock. In for me, even impeachment. It's the final campaign maneuvers are going to go by. Republicans are braced for impact. As for every poll makes pretty grim reading for the president. But as far as I say, the polls had been wrong before, not least about Donald Trump. And the legendary Republican polls to Frank Lunds, very memorably, called the last presidential election for Kamala Harris on this show. The conversations about people eating dogs and cats, calling the leader of Hungary one of the greatest world leaders, repeatedly missing the opportunity to focus on inflation and affordability, and the complete inability to present his point of view without completely tearing into her into Joe Biden, into whomever. I think that this will cost him. Yes, I'm trying to decide if I want to go on record. And the answer is yes. I think that he loses because of this debate performance. Wow. That's one of the best pollsters in history. As his professor, Anna Lickman, the pollsters, Nostradamus, fate of his keys method. Well, he got it horribly wrong too. His check, Yuga, giving him some unsensitive feedback. Brother, you got it wrong. Say you were constantly and stupidly wrong. So, okay, all right. Can I just finish a guy there? Don't call me stupid ever on this show. No, not if you're personally admitted I was wrong. I don't need you to call me stupid. Well, on this show, we often convene a predictions panel on the eve of a seismic vote, and this time it's harder to do it differently. Instead of using the polls or the keys, we can look at the prediction markets. Historically, they'd be more accurate than polls on all sorts of questions. Simple reason why is that they create a financial reward for expertise or insight. If you know something, or if you've done the homework and think you do, there's a place to put your money when your mouth is and get the rewards. In that way, a prediction market pulls the polls, instincts, insiders, and all kinds of data points. Instead of just opinions. It's not what we used to call the wisdom of crowds. Unless you've never watched TV or the internet, you'll be aware that the crowd has become a lot bigger. Polymarket and his rivals now turn up on all sorts of news and talk shows, including mine, because the data is worth the baiting. And the real beauty of getting it all on camera is that we get to do another show in a few weeks to examine just how wise the crowd is after all. Joining me now on the panel is Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mase, who's going to be stepping into a special live edition of Young Sense of Den in D.C. on midterms night. Professor Zhang, game theorist and host of predictive history. Lydia Moiner, the correspondent and commentator for the annual post. And Joe Walsh, host of the social contract and former Republican congressman. Well, welcome to all of you. And let's get into what the prediction market is saying about these midterms, because I think it's fair to say these might well be the most consequential midterm elections in modern times in America. And Polymarket says in terms of probability for the U.S. Senate, which could be the crucial battleground. Most people seem to think that the Republicans will lose the House. But the Senate seems to still be up for grabs by either of the parties. Now, for the U.S. Senate midterm winner, Polymarket has Democrats on 61% probability. Republicans at 41%. This prediction market saw a huge flip in mid-September, when the Democrats overtook the GOP for the first time since April. So let me start with you, Nancy Mays. Welcome back to Uncensored. Thank you. Thank you, Pierce. What do you think is going to happen here? We are in the business of this panel of predictions. So you're all going to be held hostage to fortune, but what do you say? You're going to quote us later. Yeah, exactly. Please God know. There's no hiding place. But my gut feeling is that I think the Republicans are going to get whacked in these midterms and could well lose both the House and the Senate. And if they do, it will be because of either apathy or rejection by a lot of Republicans or people who voted for Trump in the 2024 election who believed him when he said, "I'm not going to meddle in expensive foreign wars. I'm going to focus on getting inflation down, America first, cost of living and so on." And they've seen this year him do the opposite. Wage a very expensive messy war with Iran and see the consequential effects on cost of living and prices of the pump and so on. I think it could well be as simple as that. He's going to get a bloody nose for what a average Americans think has been a flawed war and a very expensive one. Right and I think you're pretty close. I think it's both of those. It's apathy and rejecting what's been going on. I think it started with Epstein. The bloodbath that Republicans are going to see this year started with Epstein. And it's going to end with the Iran war because the consequences of the Iran war are still dire in South Carolina depending on where you fill up. You're still paying over $4 a gallon for gasoline. When you go to the grocery store, inflation is higher than it's been in a very long time and the studies are saying it's not going down and actually may be increasing faster than it ever has. And people are really feeling the pain at the pump. I think the prediction markets are interesting. The cow she's in the polymarkets of the world. I think that sentiment is real. The house is definitely gone. I think it'll be tighter than what the polls are saying because the polls have always been a little off. People forget, you know, I look at polymarket and look at cow she. They even predicted my getting spanked in the governor's race. I think that sentiment value is certainly where people are. The polls, I think, are going to be a little bit off. People forget and I forgot this in my own race. But the MAGA voter, for example, isn't going to vote early and isn't going to tell you who they're voting for when you call them and pull them. They will vote on election day and they'll keep that answer to themselves and themselves. And so when you see where you see races within the margin of error, I think that it could be closer off or maybe the Republican wins. But there's no doubt about it. We're in dire straits right now. Professor Zhang, welcome back to Uncensored. You might well be the nearest closest living thing to Nostradamus, given your record with predictions. So what are you predicting for the midterms? I have absolutely no idea. I know what the polls are saying. I love the honesty, Professor Zhang. No bullshit. I have no idea. Giving it to me straight. It's just past two years I've been thinking very deeply about the midterms because I know these midterms are almost consequences. Because I did predict that Trump would invade Iran and the American voters would give a verdict on this war during the midterms. But to be probably honest with you, I have absolutely no idea how the midterms will go. I don't even know if the midterms will actually happen. What I will say is. What you mean? Um, um, there could be an October surprise. You, you have this war in the Middle East right now, which is raging. Uh, Saudi Arabia is getting pummeled by the Houthis. And it's probably possible that the Americans may have to go in to, uh, safe Saudi Arabia from destruction is also entirely possible that there may be a mass cashier event, uh, during, um, this, um, during, during this war that will compel a very strong American response. And so I think there are a lot of unknowns, um, and I'm also wondering if after the midterms, there may be an AI bubble collapse, which would compel Congress and the White House to work together to say that the American economy. So I think there are, this is an extremely consequential election. I have absolutely no idea what will happen. I mean, it's kind of fascinating, but slightly terrifying too. Joe Walsh, I mean, I read a thing today by a journalist in the UK, an eminent business journalist. He's been in some conference talking about AI. And he said there were senior AI executives. You said to him, they're hoarding cash because they're genuinely concerned that in the next few months, there may be a, an attack on financial systems, which basically paralyzes people's ability to get their money. I mean, I was reading it. He said it was somebody eminent and somebody credible who knows a lot about this stuff, genuinely, genuinely concerned enough to start hoarding cash at their home. So there are lots of things Professor Zhang touched on there, but the AI aspect shouldn't be ignored, I think, here about what in terms of a, of a mass event. No, you're right, Pierce. It's a big, scary issue, but we live in a country right now where a Republican Democrat, we don't have serious politicians wanting to address serious issues. Look, the polling could be off and the polling has always underestimated the Trump voter. I agree with Nancy. I tend to follow Polly market and the prediction markets, Pierce, as you said, because they're putting their money where their mouth is. But look, this is what we know. I come from the Tea Party. I got elected in that Tea Party wave when the American people were pissed off. I got to tell you, Pierce, the anger that's in America today, singularly focused on what on Trump, because most voters don't give a damn and don't approve a Democrat's either, but the anger at what Trump is doing dwarfs the Tea Party anger. And you know, Pierce, we always overestimate. We always give presidents too much credit on the economy when it's going good. And we blame them too much when it's not going good. But man, this is all on Trump. This whole elections on Trump, he has single-handedly screwed this economy. You talked about the war. It's not just his war. It was his war, but his tariffs. That was all on him. His mass deportations have had a huge impact on the economy. I think, and Pierce, last point I want to make, it is the economy. But we've never had a situation like this where we've been bombarded daily, daily by videos of massed agents disappearing people off of America's streets. I think that's going to have a profound impact on this election as well. Okay, Lydia, welcome back to our census. You've been frowning in a way that if frowns could kill, we'd all be dead. So I take it, you don't necessarily subscribe to the view that this could be a Republican bloodbath. What's your analysis? Look, I mean, I think we've all talked about how the polling can often be really off. And even this year, we've seen how there's been an effort to sort of like sway Republicans and keep them at home. We saw with, for instance, Abdul El Sayyat, people saying he was going to completely best Haley Stevens, and he eaked it out with just a couple thousand votes. So I think a lot of this sort of blackpilling is an effort to keep people at home. I mean, imagine if you told the NICS and the final, oh, there's no way you can make a comeback, right? At the end of the day, it's about performing as well as you possibly can. And I think at least with the Senate, I think the markets are way overpricing in that Republicans are going to lose. Because if you look at some of those individual races, there are clues that Republicans could make a comeback. And I think particularly in Michigan, we're saying, for instance, there's actually still very, very early voting, but there are some signs that would suggest Mike Rogers might eke it out. In fact, he's. Well, let's just. Before you explain why in the Michigan Senate race. Well, let me explain, yeah, in 2024. And I think that's one race that Republicans could absolutely flip. Look, Mike Rogers is getting a new coalition of African-Americans and Jews and people who've never voted for a Republican before. So I think when you look at some of those individual races, you look at Minnesota. I think Michelle Tafoya could flip that seat against Peggy Planagan. There are signs that are promising for Republicans. Okay. Yeah, Nancy Mace. In the Michigan Senate race, according to Polymarket, the Democrat Abdel-Assad is 67 percent predicted to win with Mike Rogers behind on 33 percent. I suspect he won't be as wide a margin, but there's no doubt that Alseid has emerged as one of the more charismatic and eloquent figures on the left. The question is, you know, is America ready to vote for somebody like Abdel-Assad with his background, with his politics, and everything else, to be a senator to somebody like Michigan? What do you think? Well, I think, you know, seeing the ad that Mike Rogers has out, a new ad tying Abdel-Assad to the Muslim Brotherhood shows you how tall the stakes are in Michigan, how high they are. Here's a guy just two weeks ago couldn't condemn the IRGC to an Iranian young Iranian student whose family had to flee Iran from the IRGC. We're persecuted by them. You know, so the stakes are very, very high in Michigan. I think Mike Rogers does eat it out, I think, but I think it's going to be closer than we all wish it would be, given it's a candidate like Abdel-Assad. This is a guy who said he's a physician, but if he doesn't even have a medical license, and if you were to perform some kind of procedure on somebody or give him a script, that would be illegal. So, you know, it's strange to see Abdel get where he is, but he was on meat the press this weekend, denying any ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, and all these facts are coming out from his sister posting a couple of years ago. But that's how hard Mike Rogers is fighting to show people who this guy really is, because when he gets on TV, he just says no, or just as a blanket denial for anything you've ever said about him, but Mike Rogers is fighting hard. I think he wins that one. Professor Zhang, I mean, do you agree with that? I mean, I think that I'll say may well win, actually, because I think he's emerged as, you know, a real dynamic, charismatic figure in American politics. But it's interesting to see the rise of a democratic socialist, and it's where, in my question, do you think it's because, you know, Americans are gravitating to democratic socialism, or is it just an anti-Trump thing? Yeah, I think Abdel also has a very strong chance of being the first Arab Senator, and I think a lot of it is because he's charismatic, and he's such an issue that has become very dear to the American voter, which is anti-Zionism. He has said many times that America has become too close to Israel, and the fact of matter is that the vast majority of Americans agree, especially young Americans. There's also a very strong air community in Michigan, so I think that he has a very strong possibility of winning. But one thing that I think that we need to discuss is this election, there's a lot of dark money in this election. There's an estimate of their times about a billion dollars of dark money is flowing into the midterm elections, and so unless we appreciate how the dark money is flowing, what do you mean, for those who don't know what dark money is, what do you mean by that? Dark money just means money that can't be sourced to a particular political organization. So for example, I can choose to put an ad endorsing you for the Senate, even though you don't need to have knowledge of me doing that, but a billion dollars is flowing. You also have an issue where algorithms are very powerful. So for example, we know that AI companies are heavily invested in the midterms. They're spending a lot of money in the midterms. They also have control over these AI algorithms that could steer the election in a certain way. And the example that I would use is the Brazilian election, where polls had lula up, but then in the first round, Flavio Parsonario won by a huge majority. And so we are still trying to assess what happened, but I think that the evangelical vote was a major factor. Also, another factor with the social media algorithms. So unless we look at dark flow of dark money as well as social media algorithms, it's very hard to predict what will actually happen. Yeah, well, stand by panel, I'm going to bring this briefly, Rich Barris, known as the People's Pundit, his perspective, he's the director of Big Data poll and author of Burn It Down. Well, welcome to Uncensored. And let's talk about Texas, because here we got the Democrat James Salarico. You got the Republican Ken Paxson. They're going head to head. Polymarket currently has Tallerico in the lead on 65 percent probability of winning, Paxton around 35 percent. What's interesting here is that you've got The sideshow, the Elon Musk, putting it in a thing. I read recently caught of a billion dollars or more into trying to shore up Paxton here. Can that make any difference at the stage or do you think that Talleriko is steaming to victory? Well, first, Pierce. Thanks for having me. It's good to be here. I appreciate it. And I just want to get out real quick. There's true a lot of pollsters have missed the Trump vote, missed the Maga vote. We have not. I mean, this is how I cut my teeth doing this. So I just want to make that clear. Going in, Texas. Look, when the polls are this close guys, yes, money matters. But that's when the fundamentals really matter to I mean, we're looking at a maybe a point or two in Texas. I feel better about Paxton's chances now than I did maybe three weeks ago. Some of that has to do with money, sure. The other part is just a simple fact that what people with the panelists were talking about disaffection and even defection. There's a high number of defections in a lot of these states, the people have to understand that Trump did not win in 24 with a typical Republican coalition. And what we're going to see is those very voters that don't typically vote Republican are the ones who are defecting. And we could see them as early as 2016. The Obama Trump voter was all over the Midwest. But Texas is different because Texas has a ton of non-white voters who backed on Trump. Black men, not in Hispanics, of course, all through the border counties and Paxton struggling with them. It's a coin toss. And I know that's a bit of a cop out answer appears, but it's true. It's a coin toss because Republicans have the votes if they get them out. The problem is everyone is so teed off about the war. I mean, look, just so everybody understands this, even if Donald Trump did not spend a decade plus promising never to start another new war in the Middle East, unpopular war leads to defeat for the incumbent party 100% of the time. So when I say fundamentals matter, they matter. As the polls are close, don't bet against them. So, you know, if you were to put your prediction hat on for the day after the midterms, what do you think is going to happen? It's going to be a bloodbath. It's going to be a bloodbath, Pierce. I mean, that's the House is gone. The Senate, it's just a question of how many seats at this point. And is there a scenario where Republicans could hold on with Vance's vote? Sure. I heard somebody before bring up Minnesota. We even had, tell for you, only two points behind in Minnesota. The problem again was the undecided vote, very liberal, very urban twin cities. And by the way, this week, they started to break and you can see Flanagan start to widen her lead now. Now it's up to four in our polling. So, I just don't see many pickup opportunities outside of Michigan. I hear that other panelist loud and clear. I do think that's going to be a test at the problem with El Said, how it's like a reverse of MAGA. You have all of these voters who would not vote for Heiley Stevens if she was the nominee. Probably that's the truth. We'll at least sit home and do nothing, but because it's all Syed, he's going to get them out. Now, the question is, if he consolidates his base, it probably won't be that close, in an all honesty. Republicans haven't won a U.S. Senate seat in the state of Michigan since 1994. They lost it after one term. And by the way, they lost it to Debbie Stabenow. Before that, you have to go back to 1972. The truth is the only thing that really characterizes Michigan as a battleground state is that Donald Trump has won it. And stink at winning Michigan, it's just a fact. And I think people didn't take seriously enough what the consequences would be for whatever you want to call it, whatever word you want to use, for not nurturing this coalition. These were voters that voted for Trump. They did not vote for you, Republicans. And now you have, you have given them no reason to keep, to stay. And to a lot of them were already ancestral Democrats or first-time voters, though just as happy to go back and sit home, socialism doesn't scare them at all. It really doesn't. And we were just talking to a voter earlier. And he just said the same thing. He's like, well, why would I be afraid of Democrats and socialism, Republicans have no problems with it. When it ends, the short, you know, the border's edge, when it's foreign money, foreign aid, and it ends on the corner of Wall Street and broad. I mean, it's just true. I mean, Republicans have lost a lot of credibility here, and they're suffering from this credibility gap. So, you know, it really, it muffles the message when you're trying to say, look out for El Sayed. He's radical. All they hear is my app. You started a new war. And that's the way voters are. Rich Paris, great to have you on our sensitive. Thank you very much. All the best, Pierce. Come back to Joe Walsh. I mean, my gut feeling is it is going to be a bit of a blood bath, and there's probably not much Donald Trump can do about it, because the war in Iran is not going to end before the midterms. And the Ukrainians absolutely no incentive to do that. And the financial issues can't be resolved in three weeks, right? So that he is where he is with this, historically, also often the incumbent president, particularly if they've done a term before as he's done, they often get whacked in the midterms second time round. So, all the points are that it's going to be a difficult night for him. The main Senate election race is interesting. You've got Republicans using Collins on 40 percent, Democrat, Troy Jackson on 60 percent in the Polymarket predictions. They were closer in the summer, but since mid-July, Jackson's pulled ahead, is that just another sign, really, of the electorate generally around America, particularly, as Rich Paris said, those who, you know, flirted with Trump maybe in 2024, like the Woke Bashing rhetoric, like the idea of closing the border, like some of the broad brust strokes of what Trump was talking about, like the idea of not getting involved in expensive wars. And then now they've actually become quite disillusioned. In other words, they're not the die-hard maggots, but they're the ones that we're kind of flirting with him. Yeah, Pierce, that's all right. And that's all correct. Let's understand the House is gone. But I also go back to a point Lydia made a while ago. I think the Senate is a coin to us. All these people saying the Democrats are going to take back the Senate, and then some, I think they're getting ahead of their skis. When it comes to the Senate, it really does come down to the individual races, period. Susan Collins, it means a small state, Pierce. It's the size of a neighborhood block. Everybody knows her. She's going to be tough to beat. Two points, though. It's always so important to remember, approval of the Democratic Party is in the toilet. This will probably be a blue tsunami, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the Democrats. It will be a blue tsunami having everything to do with Trump and what he's done. And Pierce, yeah, be skeptical of the polls, but we have hard data. In every single special election since Donald Trump was sworn in in January of 25, Democratic turnout has been through the freaking roof in every single special election. Republican turnout not so much. I think that's going to sort of tell the story in the midterms. Lydia, let's just look at South Carolina for a moment, because you got Darlene Graham Nordone, who's, of course, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham. I mean, hardly any political experience whatsoever, but seems to be romping the victory, according to Polymarket currently, but it's to be 85% to win a compared to any Andrews on 15%. Are you entirely comfortable with somebody with that kind of political experience, waltzes into a Senate seat, primarily off the back of her late grade brother? Because I'm not sure I am. It's a bit odd. Yeah. But initially, when she was appointed, that's weird. Why is his sister getting this post, but maybe that's just a nice tribute to him as she finishes out his term, which was supposed to be a couple of months. So the fact that now she is going up for this election, when she concedes, she doesn't know a lot about foreign policy, which was, of course, her brother's main issue, it's very strange. And you have a hundred sentences in a population of 340 million people, and one of them appears to be a completely naive, political operative who, well, it feels like a matter of year, something. Like, we are a meritocracy. You shouldn't get a job because of who your brother is. It's kind of the ultimate nepotism there, but look, I think, you know, it's very important to note, as we're going into this, that for the most part, obviously, the affordability issue is huge. I think one of the issues for Trump is that he is such a salesman. So in 2024, he kept promising, I'm going to bring prices down. And the reality is that unless you go into recession, which we don't want, prices are not going to be coming down. And so I think, in a way, he was sort of a victim of the fact that he did message so much optimism in 2024. But I think the challenge for the Democrats is it's easy to be the one to say, oh, you don't like gas prices, that's the Republicans vote for me. But what they're going to ultimately have to do is show, well, what is their alternative? Right? It's easy to say, oh, you hate the war vote for me, but what are you actually going to offer? And so if they do win, I think the question is, what are they going to be able to deliver? Because right now, we've seen the impact of their policies. We saw it under Joe Biden. It was a lot more inflation. It was an open border. And so I do think, JD Vance is having a sort of a good approach here saying, give us a bit more time because we are still a mess that the Democrats have created, trying to unravel it. I think the fact that it's easy to say, you hate Trump vote for me, but what are they actually going to be offering? I think that's a fair point. Yeah. I said anything. You know, and that's not going to be on the ballot in two years. Right. But that's enough. Yeah, sorry, Joe. Pierce, that's enough. But the point is, hate Trump, Trump sucks. enough for Democrats to win this year, beyond this year that's not I agree. The point I was going to make, and come back to Nancy Mace here, is I think the Republicans are going to have a buff in these midterms. But the real challenge for the Democrats heading to 2028, they do have to find a good candidate with good policies who, by then, won't even need to be the anti-Trump, because Trump may be a lame dark and irrelevant, right? But you've got to present to the country a vision for the future they're going to buy into it. I'm not convinced that the Democratic Socialism Vision for America is going to resonate on a national level in the way that gets them over the line with that. But before I get your response to that, though, you're from South Carolina. It is a bit of this, isn't it? I mean, the fact that your brother happened to be a longtime great senator, you end up by default, just because you're a sister, getting one of the prized 100 slots in the US Senate. I mean, if that happened in the UK, we'd all go nuts. Are you guys not a bit freaking out about this? Well, we did have a special election, and she was elected by the voters. I didn't support her because I'm no Queens, no Kings, right? I supported Ralph Norman in the election, but the voters did get a chance to vote. We had actually pretty high turnout for the special election in South Carolina for the Republican primary. But it is a much tighter race than it should be. Six years ago, when Lindsey Graham ran against Jamie Harris, and last time he won by about 10 points, it was a $220, 230 million race. And Darlene Graham has struggled to get out the gate with fundraising. She's not raised nearly as much money as her opponent, but her opponent is a pediatrician who supports transitioning children in gender, affirming care. And that just doesn't play down here. The problem with South Carolina in this race is all the down ballot race is being much closer than they need to. And you just saw the Congressional Leadership Fund put money into my district so that the Republican who's going to take my place at the end of the year. She's getting another half million dollars. There's some concern, I think, that my seat could flip. I won my seat from the Democrat by one point in 2019 when I was sworn in in 2020. So the problem is going to be statehouse races, state Senate races, races that are down the ballot, not just in South Carolina, but in other states. How is this going this bloodbath as we are agreeing to? How is this bloodbath going to trickle down and other races and how is it going to reform other types of government, county councils, city councils, etc. Yeah, Professor Jane, a bigger picture here. Let's assume for a moment that the Republicans lose the whole of Congress. Those are how I lose the Senate. What does that mean for 2028? Does it mean the end of Trumpism? I mean, could you see a situation with one of the Trump children runs in 2028 or does the Trump mega movement effectively die in that moment and then eke out a slow miserable death? Or would there be things Trump could do not withstanding not having Congress through executive orders, whatever it may be, which could save Trumpism and the mega movement for a 2028 candidate like a JD Vance to come through and potentially win or one of his kids. From a game theory, big pictures perspective, it's actually in Trump's best interest for the Democrats to win both the both houses. And the reason why is Democrats don't actually have a platform that appeals to most American voters. If the Democratic Democratic candidates said one of three things, okay, either we will stop this when he ran or two, we will have a more torn on data centers. Our three will force the release of the U.S. they will lose the tsunami and I think that in 2028, Democratic candidate would win the presidency. But they don't say any of these three things and you have to ask yourself what they're going to do if they have both houses and the easy answer is they will issue subpoenas and they will start investigating the Trump White House and it will just be a complete waste of time because it will not improve the lives of the average American voter. It will just be bread and circus. Exactly what happened in 2018 after the Democrats swept both houses. And so if the Democrats control both houses, the American voter will see the Democrats don't actually have any ideas or any policies that are going to benefit them. And this is going to put them in a very disadvantaged position in 2028. Also, because there's so much Zionist money and AI money and cryptocurrency money flowing into these midterms, we can expect that both the Congress will probably go along with Trump policies which means that if Trump escalates its war in the Middle East, the Democrats will vote to escalate this war. If Trump issues an AI bailout, the Democrats will go along with a trillion dollar bailout for these companies, cryptocurrency will continue. They'll probably pass the genius and clarity acts. And so the Democratic Party then becomes complicit in Trump policies and this puts someone in a very disadvantaged position in 2028. Yeah, it's going to be fascinating, isn't it? I'm actually going to DC for the midterms. I want to be there. I want to feel the action, feel what's going on, feel the, because I do think it's going to be as with all things Trump. It's not going to be as predictable as some people think it's going to be. Hence, why it's interesting to see the Polymarket prediction stuff on this. Thank you to all my panel. Much appreciated. If you want to put your money where your mouth is for the midterms, download the Polymarket app. You can deposit $10 and get $25 by using the code uncensored. Simple as that. Here's what we're going to censor is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me. If you enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing. It's subscribe on YouTube and follow Piers Morgan Uncensored on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. And in return, we will continue our mission to inform, irritate and entertain and we'll do it all for free. Independent uncensored media has never been more critical and we couldn't do it without you.