Israel in deadlock: What next for a divided country?

Hello, and welcome back to Independent Thinking from Chatham House, where every week we take a deep dive into global affairs. I'm Bronwyn Maddox. This week, Israel. Has Netanyahu, the great survivor, survived again? The future government of Israel hangs in the balance after the most important election in the country's 78-year history, at least that's what some have called it. The first since the national trauma of the October 7th attacks, the Netanyahu government's subsequent war on Gaza, and the attacks that Israel with the US have mounted against Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu entered this election as the country's longest-serving leader, the head of a coalition which includes extreme nationalist members of Israel's far right and its religious parties, some openly committed to seizing Palestinian land. For many, the election was a referendum on Netanyahu. Not just his government's failure to detect Hamas' planning for the October 7th attacks, but his prosecution of the Gaza War, Israeli military action in Gaza has led to the death of tens of thousands of Palestinians at least, and international outrage at the humanitarian crisis that has followed. His tolerance of settler violence on the West Bank, his initiation with Donald Trump of attacks on Iran, and indeed his ongoing corruption trial, but also his pledge to Israel that he was the one person who could keep it safe. We don't yet know who will form the next government, and that can take weeks or months. In Israel's famously complicated electoral system, no party has ever won a majority in the Knesset outright. Once again, we're looking at deadlock, which may be broken by frenetic horse trading of party support. But as the voting picture clarifies, it is obvious that Netanyahu's right-wing bloc has done somewhat better than some expected, even if falling short of a majority. It has done better than opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's bloc, while Arab parties have surged. So what does all this mean? What happens next? And how does this shape Israel's future? Here to discuss all this, we have three eminent guests. Anshul Pfeffer is the Economist Israel correspondent, a columnist for Haaretz, and the author of Bibi, the Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu, which came out first in 2018, but a title that remains very current. Welcome, Anshul. Thanks for having me, Bronwyn. It is my pleasure. Zezette Dargazali is an associate fellow with our Middle East and North Africa program. She's previously worked for the United Nations and in the occupied Palestinian territories. Hello, Zezette. Hello, Bronwyn. Lovely to be with you. Good to see you again. And Yossi Mekelberg is a senior consulting fellow, again with our Middle East and North Africa program, previously a professor of international relations at Regents University. Welcome back. Lovely to be here. Well, let's start with what has just happened and what happens next. Let's start with the results as we know them. All 120 seats of the Knesset, the parliament, were up for grabs. Netanyahu's Likud party with the bloc that supports it seems to have won around 53 seats. Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar, meaning straight, has won around 48. And parties representing Israel's Arab minority have done much better than in the past, we think, 19. Let's begin with everyone's first thoughts. Anshul. Well, Israeli elections really begin on the day after the election. People vote, seats are allocated, but the building of a coalition and a government is something that happens in the weeks and months after. Now, since this election, as you said, was also a referendum on Netanyahu, that kind of mixes up the picture as well. So it's about the government, it's about Netanyahu. There's a third element here, and it's about the government. And it's about the government. And it's about the validity of those Arab votes that you mentioned, because that really has changed the political landscape. What we're going to see, and we're already seeing that, basically from election night until perhaps a government is formed, is a fight for the narrative in Israel. Are the Arab votes valid? Can they be part of a new government or coalition? Can Netanyahu brazen this out? Was this a repudiation of him and his coalition? And if you just look at the numbers, you think, okay, it's quite clear. He and his partners won only 45% of the vote. But if you're in Israel, in the conversation here, that's not at all clear. And the ongoing campaign by Netanyahu and his partners to delegitimize the Arab vote is a huge part of what's happening now. And the real question is how the Jewish opposition is going to act. And that's not at all clear. We're not hearing much from Eisenkot or most of the other Jewish opposition party leaders of what they intend to do. And that, I think, is going to be the main question. We'll get into that detail, but I just want to pick up one point. What do you mean by the questions around whether those Arab votes are valid? Certainly, they're legally valid. But Netanyahu, from his very first speech on election night, was basically saying, we don't count those votes. They're not part of the Jewish majority. And therefore, we won because we won the Jewish majority. And that is something that has to be over the years. The Arab parties have played different roles in Israeli politics. And this time, their role could be critical. Zezette, what do you make of this? Let me share three takeaways about this too close to call election. One is no BB is not a political strategy. The anti-Netanyahu bloc does not share a political outlook, nor does it offer policy alternatives. It is non-cohesive and therefore very vulnerable, especially in this coalition talks now. I would not be surprised if a Viktor Lieberman from Israel Bitenu, who is currently a party within the Isingkot bloc, or Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, who's also within the Isingkot bloc, I won't be surprised if they defect to the Netanyahu bloc and give him the majority he needs to form the government. The second takeaway is Israeli society is more polarized than ever. No current political leader can confidently claim that he represents the majority of the Israeli public. And no political system can balance democracy with a continued occupation of Palestinian territories. And that is something that will need to be taken into consideration in these coalition talks. The third takeaway pertains to the approach of the Palestinian citizens of Israel parties, the Arab parties. Though the number of seats obtained by them is unprecedented, their rejection from the coalition talks by both blocs is equal. The 20% of the Israeli population they represent have been deemed political outcasts. And now, as Ashel has been saying, the legitimacy of their participation is being challenged. So we'll have to wait and see what happens. But I just want to also add that the risk of post-election violence remains on the table. Let's just make clear there that when you say ejection from the coalition talks, both Netanyahu's bloc of parties, but also Gadi Aizenkot's, said beforehand, no, they would not bring Arab parties or seats into a cabinet, even at the price of how they get to a majority. And particularly in Aizenkot's case, that is still to be tested. Yossi, let me turn to you. Many saw this as the chance to get rid of Netanyahu. He's done a bit better than expected. He is, for the moment, caretaker prime minister. Has he won? I think we knew from the beginning that for Netanyahu, not to lose is almost a victory. All consider what has happened in the last four years, the fact that he's nearly 20 years altogether as prime minister. And I can't think about many democracies that a leader would survive a first attack on the democratic system that saw hundreds of thousands of people go to the street. And then, of course, the colossal disaster of defending its own people on 7th of October. And he just survived. That's who he is. And he managed to do it again. A lot is going through fear and scaremongering in Israel. And he does it before the election. He does it on election day. And he does it immediately after the election. And that's why he survived. And at the end of the day, they are takers for this. And I think the point that Israel society is divided more than ever is valid. And it's not a coincidence that we get this result. This is a reflection of the Israeli society. Now, what worries me is actually we're talking about voting, whether there are Arabs or Jews. Democracy can survive if it divides according to identity, religious identity, ethnic identity. If you say that 19, 21 percent of the population is not legitimate. And I think the opposition actually falls into the trap of Netanyahu and the right by playing this game. So those are the election. This is a democracy. Every vote counts exactly the same. Now, the issue is who agrees with the guidelines of the next government or not. If you agree, you're part of this government. If you're not, you're not. That's what's happening in a democratic system. Anshul, just a bit more on this question of whether this was a vote on Netanyahu. Suzette just talked about the way in which the no to Netanyahu was not a sufficient argument for the opposition to him. We had all these reports of tens of thousands more diaspora voters, coming back because, apart from diplomats, people who are outside Israel not allowed to vote from outside. Was it as binary as that? What was up for grabs? The problem is, is that it's ambiguous, because this is a parliamentary vote. You don't vote for a person, you don't vote for whoever you want to be prime minister, you vote for a party. And obviously, the parties are almost all coloured, pro or anti Netanyahu. So yes, it does become a referendum. But in that grey zone between the meaning of party parliamentary elections, and the sort of symbol of Netanyahu versus whoever is challenging him, there's a lot of play there. And there's no one better than playing these different narratives than Netanyahu himself. Now, I spoke to a lot of voters over the last few months who told me, we'd love to see Netanyahu leave. We detest him. We don't trust him. We think he's been around much too long. We blame him for October 7, and so many other things. But we'll be voting for one of his coalition parties. Why? Because our tribe is that party. Or even more, they have said to me, the parties of the opposition, I can't vote for them. Then they come up with a reason why this is something that to them is a huge personal taboo. So I think the fact that 55% voted for anti-Netanyahu parties, the actual number of anti-Netanyahu votes could be much higher. If there was a referendum, and we've seen this in so much of the polling, you'd probably have 60, even 70% of Israelis voting, we'd like to see the back of Netanyahu. But when the actual politics of the vote would come into play, it gets a lot more difficult for that voice to be heard to its full strength. So obviously, those who are flying back from their universities and wherever they were outside Israel coming to vote, for them it was clear they're going to vote for an anti-Netanyahu party. But that sort of middle ground of Israelis who don't really like the opposition, they think themselves as right wing. Let's be honest, they do not want to work with Arabs in a coalition. That's where the battle of this election was. And arguably, Netanyahu won that bit because the numbers look just on the page one way. The narrative here is really up for grabs right now. And no one is better than fighting for the narrative than Netanyahu. He'll still find a way to keep himself inside that discussion. Let's dig into this question of what happens next. And everyone should brace themselves because Israeli politics is complicated, broadly for scenarios that Netanyahu, might persuade Eisenkot to join him, that Eisenkot possibly might team up with the Arab parties in the way that he said he won't, or that Netanyahu might persuade right wing parties or people within Eisenkot's party or bloc to join him. Or there's no deal and new elections. Suzette, how much agency do Arab parties have in this? What actually can they do now? Suzette So I have been closely monitoring the Arab parties, first of all, the turnout is 75%, which is unprecedented, which is huge within the Arab society, the Palestinian citizen society in Israel. And I think it's worth just looking at why this turnout has been really big. Why did everybody choose to vote this time? These elections have been existential for the Palestinian citizen of Israel. Most recent milestone, which is the events of 7 October 2021, is the election of the Palestinian citizen of Israel. And I think it's worth just looking at why this happened. And the subsequent war in Gaza was a very significant milestone that changed the Israeli politics and Israeli society as well. Before October 7, Palestinian citizens of Israel were treated as second class citizens. After October 7, they felt that they were treated as enemies of the state. Now, there has been also significant escalation in verbal and physical, racially motivated attacks on Palestinians of Israel in the last three years. There have been increasing job losses over social media posts. There has been also increase in reduction of budgets for Arab cities and villages. There have been increase in house demolitions. And of course, there has been statements by Israeli officials in the government that threatened their own existence. So, Zezet, given that, and absolutely right to recount that, but given this electoral success, what can these politicians do, if anything? So, look, they're under no illusion that their challenges are going to continue even with the 19 Cs that they have at the moment. Now, both parties said that they are ready to support the anti-Bibi coalition and form a government. Mansour Abbas, the head of the United Arab List, Raam, said from the beginning that he's ready to join the government. The joint party, at the beginning, they said that they can support the anti-Bibi coalition, but at the beginning, they said that they can support the party by providing a safety net from outside the government. But this narrative is changing a little bit now. So, I just want to pick up that point, because it's crucial. You said a safety net outside the government, which is metaphorical, but explicitly, might they be prepared to work with the government, supporting it in votes in the Knesset, without being allowed to join the cabinet? So, clearly, not as good, but still would get in, potentially, the kind of politicians that they want to see. So, I think that's a good point. They have said already that they are ready to do whatever it takes to form a government that would topple Netanyahu. So, yes. I mean, it would be similar to what you saw in Britain under Theresa May after the election, when they lacked a majority in the House of Commons, but they had a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP. Yossi, where does it go from here? So, in a way, because the results, it's so inconclusive, it leaves everything on the table. And all the promises, the pledges before the election are almost nil and void in Israeli politics, and you move from there. And there are a lot of possibilities. Now, we know that in Washington, already, we hear the voices that would like to see Eisenkot and Bibi going together and keep Smotrich and Ben-Kvir out. You know, to leave the far-right, the ultra-nationalists of Yosemite, to Zionism outside the coalition. So, this is kind of the dream, at least in the White House right now. But remember, even if Yashar and Eli Kud going together, they still don't have majority. So, they need probably Bennett there. So, they need someone to reach the 61, or we are going to a minority. Then there is, for the opposition parties, there are also opportunities, again, to normalize the fact, it should have been a long time ago, that our parties can be part, not only as a safe place, but as a safe place. So, we need to normalize the fact that our parties are safe tonight, but being part of a coalition. It happened under the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid government for a while. So, I think we've seen the kind of willing dealing. The thing is, Netanyahu is better than anyone. If doing that, he's the most experienced in doing that. The other have a lot of experience in other fields. And because his political survivors is linked closely to his corruption allegations, Netanyahu denies. This is another fight of his life that he will try to form. Anshul, would you say it is possible, at this point, that there could be a very right-wing government emerging, or there could be a more moderate one? Well, for a very right-wing government to emerge, we already have that. That is the government that is currently in power. It's a caretaker government for now, but they're still holding the reins of power. For one to emerge from this election, the numbers aren't there. But as we've said a number of times, Netanyahu is trying to run down the line. He's trying to run down the line. He's trying to run down the clock. And I think he reckons, probably with good reason, that a rerun election in early next year will yield better results from his perspective. So I think six months from Tuesday this week, we could be back at the polls. And that, I think, is currently Netanyahu's main fallback strategy. That, and we haven't yet mentioned the fact that there may be, perhaps in weeks from now, another round of strikes on Iran together with America. I was going to come on to that point of what Netanyahu might do because he is still caretaker prime minister. But just in Gadi Aizenkot's position, he's trying to hold on to the people who've supported him. Do you think that he might change his position on Arab parties and working with them? Could he hold his block together if he did so? That's the biggest question right now. I mean, he didn't categorically rule it out in the campaign. He was quite evasive. I mean, let's kind of talk about the opposition for a quick minute. There are four parties there. On the left, the Democrats led by Yair Golan. And they were very clear. They are open to Arab parties being in coalition. On the right of the opposition, Yisrael Beitein of the Nationalist Party led by Avigdor Lieberman. They have been categorically against. Then Aizenkot and Bennett and Yair Lapid, who's sort of the co-leader with Bennett of the Yachat Party, they were sort of ambiguous. They were saying, we want a Zionist government. We have all kinds of conditions, and we don't think the Arab parties will confirm to those conditions. But they didn't outright say under no condition we won't have an Arab party in government or supporting our government. And that's still where Aizenkot is now. And Aizenkot, until now, and we're now a day and a half after the election ended, hasn't come out and said in a clear way how he sees Arab representation. Though in the last two hours, there's been an interesting development. We're recording this just after midday in Israel. There's been accusations and an announcement of an investigation into possible illegal funding of voting, with heavy hints. And I think that's a very, very important thing. I think that it's to do with Arab voting. Now, it's not at all clear there's any hard evidence to back that up. And Aizenkot has said, yes, things should be investigated, but this under no circumstance should influence the swearing in of the new Knesset and should not disqualify people's votes. In other words, he's kind of hinting, and we may hope that this could be a stage towards him saying, I recognize the fact that there's a big Arab representation here and we need to work with that. That's what we're still waiting to hear from Eisenhower. Let's just pick up this point about Iran and the caretaker government the next 90 days, if you like, and what could happen within that. Zezette, what are you expecting and what are you hearing about the potential for strikes on Iran? So one of the preferable scenarios I would imagine for Netanyahu at this stage is to prolong the caretaker government for as long as he can. One way of doing that is calling an emergency in Israel that might keep him in the helm of the government. That's why an attack on Iran, to which Iran might retaliate and escalate, would serve Netanyahu in staying in the government. And don't forget, we also have the wild card of President Trump. President Trump has also said, when he endorsed Netanyahu before the elections and repeatedly after the election, that Netanyahu is his partner to finish the job in Iran, implying that there will be an escalation and a hit on Iran soon. So let's wait and see what happens on that front. Yossi, would it help Netanyahu if he did repeat strikes on Iran? It can help him to create an emergency and then to tell Eisenhower, this is not the time to start wrangling about who is leading. We have an emergency. That's what Netanyahu on TV and radio said. This is time to protect Israel. It's all about security. I'm the one with the experience forgetting that Eisenhower was the chief of staff and served 35 years in the military. Putting Eisenhower and maybe others in a position that is a time of crisis. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. We're fighting the big enemy, the head of the octopus, and we'll keep politics out of it. So in this sense. But there is the other side, the midterm election in the United States, and there might be interest for Trump also to initiate emergency. And you saw actually, you saw huge billboards in Israel of Trump and Netanyahu together. I don't know if it will be repeated also in the United States to help the Republicans in the midterm, but the idea that they work together and ease the situation. So I think it's a good idea. I think it's a good idea. I think it's a All this is going to play out and we'll follow it closely. Do look at chathamhouse.org for what our team is saying about it. But let's go to the bigger picture here. First, what Netanyahu has meant for Israel and then where this is going for Israel as a country. Anshul, you've written this biography, reprinted and updated. What has Netanyahu meant for Israel and its politics? Netanyahu has reshaped Israeli politics. When he came along, there were two main parties, Likud and Labour, and then a host of small parties, which after every election, there would be the regular horse trading. When Netanyahu came along, and this is very much related to what's happening now. In 1992, when he was still just a deputy minister, Likud lost power because there was a blocking block of centre-left parties, Labour and what was then Meretz. And just five Arab Knesset members, they joined together and said, we now have 61 and it's Haq Shamir who was then Likud leader, very, very staunch right-winger nationalist, said, yes, I accept the fact that I've lost. Netanyahu saw that and vowed to himself that would never happen again. And when he replaced Shamir as leader of Likud, he embarked both on delegitimizing the Arab vote, that's something we've been speaking about a lot, and building an alliance between Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties, which wouldn't just be sort of a convenient temporary alliance, for every Knesset term to be renegotiated afresh, but as an alliance in which they would be a block enduring throughout coalition terms. So what Netanyahu has done in Israeli politics is first of all, build not just a party, but an entire block of parties, which would be behind him for decades. And that's one thing that he has changed in Israeli policy. The other thing he's changed is he's changed the entire tone and manner of doing politics. Now, it's not just Netanyahu, obviously, in this very long period in which he's been active, the whole way of doing politics, not just in Israel, around the world has changed. It's much more presentational, it's much more personality focused. And he was made for this era of how politics isn't about policies, not even about parties, it's about the personality. And he's defined what it means to be an Israeli leader. It has to be someone who can speak well on the telly, someone who do these grand speeches at the UN and go on Fox or CNN and give a good interview. He's defined what it means to be an Israeli leader. Israelis nowadays, if you're under the age of 50, you don't really know what another prime minister looks like. That is what it looks like. And there's this kind of slogan, it's almost become a joke in Israel. Show me someone who can replace him. It's become the standard answer. Like 10 million Israelis, there's no one else who can be prime minister. So this myth of the inevitable ultimate leader of Israel is something which is very, very powerful. And even though we see now in this election that only a minority holds the power, it's not just a minority. It's a hold to it. It's a sizable minority. And it has an effect also in the opposition. Even someone like Gadi Eisenkopf, who was Yossi mentioned, spent 40 years in the military, was the head of the army. Even someone like that has trouble challenging that overpowering myth of Netanyahu. And as I said before, it's a parliamentary election. It shouldn't be about personalities. Netanyahu has changed Israeli politics. And even if he loses, it's going to be very difficult and take quite a while to recalibrate Israeli politics. I'm indebted to Steve Farrell, head of news and comment here at Chatham House, for the line, to Bibi or not to Bibi. But you're describing as a span of three decades. He's been prime minister over 19 years of the last 30 years. Suzette, what is your take on those three decades and what it has done to Israeli politics and particularly this question of Palestinian rights? So no doubt, in the last 30 years, the Israeli society, if you look at the Israeli political map, all of it has shifted to the right. I mean, I've been in Israel in June and July after not being there for a long time. And I was quite astonished by the difference in the rhetorics, in the space for conversation, in what can be said and what cannot be said. It's become a very binary society. You're either pro-Palestine or against. If you're pro-Palestine, you're against Israel. If you're pro-Israel, you're against Palestine. And there's lots of societal differences within the communities themselves. And you see that the different communities have different interests. And this is why the vote here has been very fragmented as well. We forget that even before October 2023, there has been riots and demonstrations in Israel to protest the judicial reforms that the government has been trying to do as well. The LGBT community has its differences. There are issues between the different religious parties, the rich and secular parties. So Israel is not a homogeneous society in any way, but it's also very much fragmented. On the Palestinian side of Israel, as I said earlier, they always felt that they were second-class citizens. But recently, they have been treated as even enemies of the state. And they could see that in their daily life in terms of attacks when they speak the language. Only on the other hand, there are Arabic-speaking Druze who even serve in the army. They've been attacked because they spoke Arabic. So it's very bleak, the way that the society looks now. If I can just add to some of the things about Netanyahu, because I agree with what Enshel and Zizet say, but he introduced populism. And it always reminds me of what Mark Twain said once, I have principles, but if you don't like them, I have others. And that's the way he operates. He starts with opposing, Oslo. Then he described Arafat as a partner. And there is a long list that he will change his mind. When he attacks now, for instance, the Arab parties, he's the one, he's the first actually, to offer Mansour Abbas to join forces in coalition. And that's the way he introduced this kind of populism. And the fact that I can change my mind, but I can get away with it and always be on the right side of the Israeli political system or the voters. Yossi, how much was the horror and trauma of October 7th part of this picture? No doubt. Everyone you talk to in Israel talks about the trauma of October 7th. It really affects the way they think. And I think it's also why they're afraid of any change, of a big change. And the whole two-word is there. Because it was a major traumatic event, no doubt about it. But forget what happened since the aftermath of October 7th and the accusation of genocide in Gaza. So all of this is part of his legacy. But I think more than anything, the way that he operates by dividing the Israeli society without strategy in it, it's all about tactical. How he stay in power, regardless whether it's in the interest of the country or not. Anshul, where does this go for Israel? We've got the country fighting on all sides, many times against enemies backed by Iran. But because of actions in Gaza, and now the West Bank losing considerable parts of international support, and signs that support even in the U.S. is changing. to some extent generationally. Where is this going? Well, it's not going anywhere good right now, that's clear. And on the diplomatic level, on the security level, on whether it's within the region or on the broader international front, Israel's not in a good place right now. And if Netanyahu somehow perseveres and manages to hold on with his government and then perhaps is more successful in the next election, if there is one soon, it can only continue in the same direction. And that basically leaves Israel or Israel under Netanyahu with just one protector, and that's Donald Trump. And we know also how unreliable Trump's protection can be, and it's limited in time for only a couple more years. So the real question is, Eisenhower is just one person. He represents a group of potentially responsible grown-ups, and it includes the other leaders of the opposition. It includes figures within the defense establishment, like the current IDF chief of staff, Yael Zamir. They have all made it very clear that they're not happy with this direction. None of them are peaceniks. None of them are going to tomorrow go to another Oslo summit and make peace with the Palestinians tomorrow. It's not going to happen. But we're talking here about a change of direction, just kind of taking a step back from the abyss. The real question is, can this group of people, they now have the numbers, because Netanyahu has been rejected by a majority of the Israeli electorate. They are all seeing how damaging continuing on this path can be. The real question is, do they have the leadership? Do they have the capability to also overcome their own political considerations and egos to get together and swear in now a minority government which will at least take hold of the levers of power and the security apparatus and the IDF? Or will they just allow Netanyahu to keep his grip over the steering wheel as Israel's hurtling towards the abyss? Just on that question of a government that was not Netanyahu, seizing the levers of power, as you put it, what, in your view, could it then do with them? As you said, these are not peaceniks. Is there any part of that that leads to a deal with the Palestinians? Or is there really no constituency for that in Israel as it is now? Well, there isn't a constituency for that in Israel because Israel is still gripped by the trauma of October 7. And I think that is an unrealistic expectation of Israeli politicians and of the Israeli society. At this point, and I think that if we look closer to what's happening on the ground, there are a number of drastic steps that have to be taken. First of all, reining in the frightening levels of settler violence in the West Bank. That doesn't mean Israel's going to dismantle the settlements there. It does mean that the security forces, the police and the Shin Bet will get clear orders to stop what's happening there. That can be done. It's not being done now. And that's no coincidence. So, Zed, given what Anshul's just said, how do you think Palestinian voters and politicians within Israel should handle it now? As Anshul's described it, and many would agree, there is not a constituency for a deal with the Palestinians within Israeli society and politics at the moment. Anshul's just listed a set of things that, in his view, a government other than Netanyahu's might do to bring down the violence on the West Bank and so on. The Palestinian citizens of Israel with 19 seats. They still have weight in Israel. Now, they have voted on issues that pertain to their daily lives, but they also took into consideration what's happening in Gaza and the West Bank because they see themselves as, of course, part of the wider Palestinian people. They are under no illusion that occupation is going to end, that they can push for end of occupation. They're under no illusion that they can push for revoking of settlement policies or that they can push for. withdrawal of Israeli army from Gaza. But they can help if they are in the government. They can be part of perhaps a small window of change in the way of the management of these files. Yossi, where does this go? There are kind of two opposing forces within Israel society. One that is very introvert, and they will go now weeks no end discussing, you know, how to form a coalition, who should be part of it. But the other is. But the other is. But the other is. But at the same time, the challenges, domestically, internationally, are not going away. They still need to deal with the Palestinian issue, reducing violence by settlers in the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iran. And now when you don't have a functioning government, it makes it way more difficult. That's the need to have a stable government. As soon as possible, they can actually address this issue. But I'm afraid that what we'll see is probably, and Anshul mentioned it earlier, the possibility of another. And in this, I don't see 70,000, 80,000 people are flying abroad again. It's an expensive exercise that people can't do every two or three months. And this is going to affect the result as well. But I think at the end of the day, the stability of the government and the political system is important because the next four years, considering all the challenges that it has domestically and internationally, for instance, the issue of demography, the issue of drafting, being inclusive society, and the rest needs this. Anshul, just finally, we've been talking about big forces on Israel, inside Israel. How much of this reflects the electoral system itself? If Andy Burnham is looking for a version of proportional representation in the UK, would you recommend he pick up the Israeli one? The problem is not proportional representation. The problem is how politics have revolved around one figure. I'm sorry, I have to go back to this because it shouldn't always be all about Netanyahu. But if you look at Israel's 26 elections, around 20 of them have succeeded in delivering stable government with a coalition which reflects a broad range of views in the Israeli public. Where they've failed is where there have been referendums around Netanyahu. Parliamentary elections are not presidential elections. They shouldn't be about one person. But Netanyahu has managed to make this about him. And in that way, he's kind of warped the whole way Israeli politics work. We're going to have to stop there. That brings us to the end of this week's edition of Independent Thinking from Chatham House. So, thank you, Anshul Pfeffer of The Economist. Thank you for having me, Bronwyn. Great to have you with us. Thank you as well to Chatham House's Zizette D'Arcozali. Thank you for having me. And thank you, sitting opposite me, our own Yossi Meffelberg. If you want more explanations of all these currents shaping our world, Independent Thinking is out every Friday. Don't forget to follow us on your Facebook. And as I said before, do turn to ChathamHouse.org for analysis and immediate reactions to world events. Thanks for listening. I'm Bronwyn Maddox. We'll see you next time.