Is Week 4 an Elimination Week Already in the NFL? (feat. Arif Hasan)

I may not be a cowboy, but the same old man. I might be a same old man. [BEEP] My fellow football Americans, I know it's just week four, but it does feel like an elimination Sunday is already upon us. We've got an important loan starball, the Texans and Cowboys only have one win between them, but that's just the tip of the iceberg. Neither the LA teams can much afford a loss, and neither can the defending AFC champs. Plus, we've got Dolphins vikes in a Super Bowl 8 rematch, and Niners Broncos, just as it was in the Super Dome for Super Bowl 24. Got a cat fight brewing in Sensei between the Bengals and Jaguars, and an AFL classic between the Chiefs and the Raiders who are both good? Maybe? Let's figure that out. Let's start the show. [BEEP] Hi, and hello, my fellow football Americans. Welcome to NFL Week 4. Welcome to Football America, presented by Draft King Sports. Now in all 50 states, subscribe, leave us a comment. This week's special prize for one subscriber. Buddy Badowski is going to swing by your place to watch football with you all weekend long. No problem. No guarantee right there on the couch. Yeah. Got the kind of stuff like you. My last weekend, Dave, I spent a lot of time on couches and air mattresses and in airports flying all over the country. So I might as well just do it again this weekend. You're a regular Joey Porter, Jr. Traveling here and everywhere across football America. It's episode 87. We have Arif Hassan coming up in just a bit to talk about these critical games and how many teams suddenly feel like at least to me before September's out. Their season is kind of hanging in the balance if you're looking at shared reality here. Number 87, just in time for hockey season. Isn't that nice? Here he goes. Now, and that leads us. We have. I should. Hello to me, Caballo, 10 day Tony. Hello. They just heard Buddy Badowski and we have Gina Fuentes. Take it away. Who? I guess NFL player. Let's get to the NHL player who wore the number 87 best. NFL players. This is a tight end number. This is Rob Grunkowski, Travis Kelsey territory. If you want to go back in time, Dave Casper, Ben Coates, a couple of wide receivers, you might have heard of them. The architect of the catch Dwight Clark and Reggie Wayne, populate that number as well. But I'm just going to back out and. The wide receivers. So if you wear, if you're a high end pass, a wide receiver, I should say, who wears 87. You can only have first names. Dwight Clark, as everybody learned in vacation, Chevy Chase and Reggie and Wayne. Reggie Wayne needs to get into the Hall of Fame already. It's ridiculous. He isn't in there. But yes. Number 87, worn by maybe the best hockey player in the history of people. Isn't that nice? That's nice. That's the. These these super relatives. Maybe the greatest hockey player in the history of people. Have you ever heard of Wayne Gretzky? Yeah, he was terrific. I don't know if he's pretty good work. I'm late. Well, he's dynamite, analyzed my stuff. There's big puffy Botox cheeks and all that. What's going on there? We're there's a weird line under his chin. I don't want to insult the great one, but something. This is going on there. I'm glad you don't want to insult him. Oh, no, he's royalty after all. Who would have the gold to talk to 99. Let me throw this one at you, Mr. Hockey, then with my with your super relatives or whatever you said. What would happen if you could trade two two thousand. Ten Sidney Crosby to 1984 for Wayne Gretzky. Who would win that trade? Who would be the better player than I think Sidney Crosby would pretty much do exactly to the 1980s. What Wayne Gretzky did to the 1980s? He was ahead of his time and and Sidney Crosby is obviously now the kind of player that Wayne Gretzky was back then. They're two of the greatest hockey players of all time, but Wayne Gretzky is the greatest and that's it's fine. We can just leave it at that. It doesn't have to go away. I mean, I you're lucky that this is a football show because we would not leave it at that. In fact, it would be four and a half hours worth of discussion of me brow beating you. But 87 in football terms. I do think it is a significant number Dwight Clark making the catch because in 1981, January of 82, he makes that play and swings. Really, it's it's one of in my book one of the three or so biggest inflection points of the Super Bowl error. The cowboys keep in mind were the dominant forces of the NFC. Roger stopback retires in 79 Danny White takes over. They almost go to the Super Bowl fall short in Philadelphia. They would have won that Super Bowl had they had they gotten there against the Wildcard Raiders 81. The cowboys have the game won the catch happens. Then after Dwight Clark makes the grab the cowboys almost score drew Pearson over the middle catches the ball. The DB for the Niners barely rangles him or else drew Pearson houses the football and the cowboys don't just win that game and don't just go to the Super Bowl and beat the Cincinnati Bengals. They maintain their stranglehold on the NFC. Whereas Bill Walsh says I like Joe Montana, but after this season he got us to a certain point. He basically is Alex Smith giving way to a Colin Kaepernick type. I think in the person of either John L. Way or Dan Marino. I think Bill Walsh would have moved heaven and earth to get one of those cats in springtime of 1983 as it is the Niners take over the NFC and rule over it for the bulk of the 80s. Any who can we get to the here and now please I would like to do that. Fellas were looking for a team. Let's start off the game picks for NFL week for 2026. We're looking for the team or teams who we reckon will have the breeziest Sunday to so so to help out anyone and a survivor pool or who enjoys watching blowouts. It's time for stress free Sunday delivered by little Caesars the official pizza sponsor of the NFL right now scored two faves just you for Detroit style slices and sticks for only $4.99 only a little Caesars officially delicious. I don't want to brag but for what it's worth I'm already 2 and 0 in this little game here sea hawks are laying seven to the visiting chargers many people are saying special counselor jack Smith attended this game featuring the hawks. It doesn't even make sense because the game hasn't been played yet. How could anybody make that claim either way. I like the sea hawks to take care of business. I don't think what we're seeing with the chargers turns around to a large degree at least they're not going to go over the season but they are not going to wind up in the playoffs. The hawks are for real the sea hawks that is I think they cover that seven points. How say you me cabaya. I'm going to take a team that got blown out in Thursday night football last week I'm going to take the Packers to beat the Buccaneers minus three and a half is the line there Packers didn't look they're not going to look as bad as they did against the Falcons and we got Jalen Daniel starting in place of Baker Mayfield I don't know what that offense that offense look bad with Baker I can only imagine how bad it looks with Daniels I'm picking the the Packers here with which what it's kind of a spooky line is a very odd line at minus three and a half Dave. I hear you I do though allow for the wild card factor of a guy who we have not seen playing in in a pro football game. I don't know what what what he's going to be able to do out there but neither do the Packers maybe that gives the Bucks a minor edge there is as an unknown but I hear your noise and talk about elimination games. You don't want to be on the losing side of this one either I mean whoever loses this one is some real jeopardy buddy your next. Yeah I am going to go down to the big easy I'm going to set up on Sunday with some or Monday night that is with some crazy bread and I'm going to take it nice and easy on Monday night because I've got the Saints minus two and a half in the dome. Dave this is a Monday night football game it is the 20th anniversary of that Monday night football game the Steve Gleason game the first game back from Hurricane Katrina when they rebuilt the super dome we all know it's one of the most epic. You want to talk about inflection points and I feel history right like that sets up that run for the Saints that ends in a Super Bowl with drew breeze down here in Miami. I think there's going to be all kinds of emotions in that building the super dome is going to be insane and I really I'm buying into the Saints I'm not buying into the Falcons off of that win against Green Bay last Thursday give me the Saints minus two and a half. Do yourself a favor don't buy anything related to the NFC South they all think they're all agree with that. But if I had to if I had to take one team give me the Saints because I really like that offense with Tyler. I'm interested in what the panthers do this weekend against Detroit another really big game in the month of well wait well it'll be October actually so wait now it's currently October now yeah. It's so much so many hours in the day now Gina sure turn after that embarrassing display by buddy trying to show me up. Guys lots of things in football are hard. So you got to take the easy ones yeah so when you identify the worst team in the league and they're the worst by a lot you just keep going to the world no it's the dolphins. This guy he can't do this every single. It's a stress free Sunday. knowing that the dolphins are going to lose. And this time, there's the added bonus of Brian Flores being the defensive coordinator on the other side. Have you ever seen a team blitz a hundred percent of the plays because I think that's what's going to happen. Yeah. So take this. No. I mean, I haven't spent a lot of time considering the Vikings and dolphins game. I had not considered that Brian Flores of all the chips on all the shoulders this weekend. This is the biggest one. He wants to humiliate the dolphins, no doubt. And coincidentally, the dolphins want to be humiliated. So yes, I can't push back too hard. It just feels like you're taking the low-hanging fruit here, Gina. You want to stress free Sunday or not? Hmm. Two Shay, two Shay. And that's it. Stress free Sunday, even better. Get that Detroit style pizza, little Caesars. All right. Now let's get to it. The big event for me on our end of week show, we talk about the three biggest games of the weekend. If you can only watch a few games, these are those. We're not doing charger Seahawks here. No, at number three, we have the aforementioned Super Bowl redo Denver San Francisco Niners laying three 46 and a half as you're total at the time of this recording. The injury plague has become so bad for San Francisco fans. Our guy Ethan Shryer says he and his Niners pals are now texting each other when there's an injury and they're happy when it turns out that the injury is not too severe. It's sad. It's like, well, he's not out for the year. We did it. Very sad. Not sad is how good the Niners are playing in spite of all the injuries. Niners averaging 33 points a game, defense allowing 16-ish or so points a game and the Niners O line has inexplicably allowed pressures just 13 and a half percent of the time Broncos are all about pressuring the QB. They did it 57 percent of the time against Stafford last week. I don't think that happens this week. So Niners get it 26 to 20, buddy, you're next. Yeah, Dave, I'm going to just be honest with you here. I'm watching that Broncos Rams game last Sunday night and I'm just thinking to myself, the Broncos could not continue to get away with this. They're 13 and two in one score games in the last two seasons. That is one of the most unsustainable stats you factoids you will ever see in the NFL. That simply cannot last and I think this is the week where we finally see it start to break a little bit. I'm not a huge believer in this Broncos team. I'm not crazy about the offense. They just keep finding ways at the end of games. They get a pass interference call that goes their way. I'm not buying into them at all, but I'm really buying into the 49ers. This team is playing out of their minds. I'm going to have to repent eventually on Brock Purdy if this guy keeps playing at an MVP level like this. He's been outstanding this year. Give me the Niners 24 to 13. I like your conversation there about repent and they're doing it at the last minute, even though they don't look good for the for the whole game. Sounds like Tim Tebow, who happened to play for the Denver Broncos doing exactly that and he needs to repent and for for his sins, according to Pablo Torre. What are we doing there to my boy to Timmy Tebow, you don't think we don't know, we don't know. Let's all the facts come out, you know, I've only been involved in, I've only been on the public stage for the last 20 years. You can't, you can't accuse me of being a little dim. You know, before you go, I think this is real interesting stuff because I mentioned everybody's aware of all the injuries. The thing that has this team still playing at such a high level above and beyond everything else in the QB league is their QB take a listen to Brock Purdy. If you go to a combine and all those things, you're just throwing on air and yeah, you look all good with a strong arm and fast jumping, all that stuff. But when it comes down to 11 on 11 and you got guys that are foot tolerating, you can't see, it comes down to the processing, like before the play, like I know that the safety's probably going to rotate down. It's going to be one high and I got one hitch. No more than that to rip it where Debow's supposed to be like just inside the hash and there's a backer. That's also got a 40 inch vert that I got put up, you know, like Brock Purdy, his QB rating is at 133 so far, his QB ours at 94. Sweet Jesus. One third. It's great. He is ridiculous this year and if you're playing fantasy football, whatever team probably has them on the roster, he's probably their backup quarterback. So if you want to maybe try and catch that guy who's trying to maybe capitalize, you know, selling high and all that stuff, get Brock Purdy on your team if you can because he's probably a top five QB at this point. Geno, if what have I called you up and said you have Brock Purdy, I have Caleb Williams. Let's make that trade. Would you take it? Yeah. I would and it's probably the bad move on my part, like because everybody thinks of Brock Purdy as as Mr. Relevant and they just can't get that out of their head. He's just like your backup QB is nice to have him, but he should be starting. If Brock Purdy was picked the second to last pick instead of Mr. Relevant, not even like obviously if he was a first round pick, we all know we would look at him differently. If he were 253 instead of 254 or whatever it was that year, are we looking at Brock Purdy differently than we do because he's labeled as Mr. Relevant exactly because of the name is there. That being said, I don't want to get too far away from it. I do have the 49ers winning this one, 24 to 21, just because of the run game and the short passes and George Kittle. And I think that's going to keep Brock Purdy from getting sacked because as we mentioned already, the Broncos like to pressure the QB. So you're predicting a push at least as the number stands right now. Yeah, I think that's an interesting point you make there, buddy. I think also go even further with that. If you if Brock Purdy were hype coming out of Iowa state that he's a first round guy and he doesn't have all the physical stuff, but man, he's a winner and he's we project him to be a great processor in the NFL air go, he's a first round pick. You would not bad and I what Mac Jones was supposed to be is what is what Brock Purdy is. You would just roll with that and be like, yeah, you see he's he's a as I always say, he's a he's not a gunslinger. He's an assassin. He's a great processor along the lines of Brady Peyton breeze. And then you have the gunslingers and it is hard viscerally to embrace the assassin as much as the gunslinger. You're on board with him with the with the ebbs and flows of a football game and a football season. Either way, Mikabayo, 10 day Tony, who you got here? I'm going to take San Francisco 2621 and all the reasons you said, obviously I said it last week. Brock Purdy is criminally underrated as far as all the numbers that he's putting up. He's doing it with basically nobody. I think, I think the conversation with the 49ers also outside of Brock Purdy is how good George Kittle looks from tearing his Achilles in what December of last year. That used to be like death nail, like it's over. Like your career is done. We'll see you on TV in about 10 years. Sure. The next season is gone. Your career is done. Like Dave, how many times in the 80s and 90s Achilles? It's over. All right. Good luck. Go dig a ditch or something like your NFL career is over. Now guys are returning in less than 10 months and playing the way that George Kittle is playing. You talk about processing and trying to throw guys open. George Kittle seems to be the benefactor of all of those throwing open between the backer and the safety. And he's just playing amazing. The offensive line. Have they let up a sack yet? It's been three games. I don't know if they've let up a sack. I think it is one of the undercover stories. It's crazy. Zero sacks. Zero sacks. That's our goal. They're only good offensive lineman. But when I talk to people, they say the pieces that they have individually are not high end. A save an all-time great at left tackle. It's bizarre with Kyle Shanahan, how he can just marginalize the need for those pieces. And imagine the advantage that gives John Lynch in the draft and in free agency against his peer group. I don't have to worry about the offensive line. And by the way, that's five pieces at minimum, obviously. I don't really have to address that high in the draft and how that allows. And by the way, as far as that goes, if you like Albrok Perdys playing now, how about when he has close to, if not a full complement of his past catchers going into the season? He doesn't have that yet. They should soar even higher. Men, I am sort of surprised by where the Niners are so far as the bottom line. Okay. Game number two, Jacksonville Cincinnati, the bungles coming off of that that loss in Pittsburgh are laying two and a half, 51 and a half is your total on this one. I'm going to say it. Winner of this game is my AFC Super Bowl pick. That shouldn't shock you. I told you the Bengals were going to the Super Bowl before before the preseason. But if the Jags beat them in Cincinnati, I think I am required to recognize what's going on here. Jags has been real good on offense, as I'm sure you've heard. But you may not know the defense has been mighty, except for this, their bottom 10 in pressure rate. And that's definitely not good against this offense. Derek Harman in that Steelers game kind of saved the Steelers there. They hadn't gotten pressure much on Joe burrow all day long. He did not only get the burrow in the big spot, but strip sack them. And that saved that saved the Steelers there. I don't think that the Jags get that lucky in this one, Bengals 29, 24 me combined. I'm going to take the Bengals 31, 24. There's been a lot of conversation of late. And I don't know if this has been talked about Joe burrow with like six minutes. left in the fourth quarter by trail. - Oh my god, this stuff is like one in 32 or something insane like that. - Yeah, this stuff's insane. - Like does not come back in the fourth quarter. - You figure, all right, this guy is of the same cloth as Manning and Breeze and Brady and Rogers. - Joe Burr, right, all those guys that, all right, fourth quarter, we got one drive to go. The Patrick Maholam's Josh Allen type. All right, here it is, like he's gonna do it and then he continues to not do it. I think he gets it done this time. 31, 24, give me Cincinnati. There's a line up about it, there's no, you know, the other side of that coin, Tony, is that if you look up, if you dig in a little bit on the numbers, we're not talking one score games, we're talking trailing in the fourth quarter. If you look at one score games and with the ball with five minutes to go and how often does he rally, it is a different picture. - They get a little bit better, yeah, but not for my own. - I think it's a lot better, it's a matter of fact, but yeah, I take your point and I think they get over on the Jags, buddy. - Yeah, so Dave, if you can talk about rematches of Super Bowl eight happening in Minnesota this weekend, then I can talk about a rematch of the 2019 national championship game. Between the two quarterbacks here, you have Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, facing off against Joe Burrow, who won the national championship that year with arguably the greatest college football team of all time. - That was that 65. - That's 2019, yes, that 2019 LSU where he had Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. If you look at it, like this is a really good chance for us to evaluate how these quarterbacks match up against each other at this point in their career, right? Two number one overall picks. Two Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be this generational prospect, kind of got off to a slow start since then has been fantastic, like grown into a guy, Tony, you and I probably agree, that's a top five quarterback in the league right now. - Or around that area, at least, right? - Like he's starting to grow into that tier with Joe Burrow, right? That people had elevated Burrow into. This is a great measuring stick, and I think Trevor Lawrence is gonna pass it, and I think people will start to realize that he should be in those conversations with the likes of Joe Burrow. Give me the jacks here, 34, 31. - That's a fun one. I hadn't considered the college national championship angle there, Lawrence V. Burrow. Of course, the greatest single season college football team is now the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers, Gino, how say you? - Okay, well, the end of September has happened. So the first month of season is in the books, and so the bangles don't have to worry about that thing anymore, so September's gone. Now they can move on to the rest. And once they get on to the rest of the season, the bangles are so much better than that first month. So I'm gonna go ahead and take the bangles here, 30 to 27, but really quick, I want to give a shout out to Trevor Lawrence, who is every fantasy player's best friend, unless you have Trevor Lawrence on your team. If you look at this picture, I mean, he took a knee against the Patriots late in the game at the one-yard, not even closer than the one-yard line, so he can get his buddy, Basel Tutten, into the end zone. So if you've got Basel Tutten on your team, know that Trevor Lawrence is-- - The Anti-Josh Allen. - Yeah, the Anti-Josh Allen. - There are a lot of fantasy owners in their rotation, but there's a very selfish Trevor Lawrence, very selfish. - But I'm a good shout, nevertheless. All right, now let's get to our number one game. It's the MLB playoffs, and so that serves as a great reminder. This game, between the Raiders and Chiefs, belongs in the East Bay on the Oakland Athletics Dirt Infield. - Great shout, Dave, great shout. - Still, it is the best uniform matchup available in all the football. You cannot do better than the Raiders in the home black against the Chiefs so long as the Chiefs wear the red pants. I will not take any pushback on this. You can argue about the second best, but it is the Raiders hosting the Chiefs in their red pants. Hopefully we'll see that the Raiders at home are catching four and a half in this one, 47 and a half is the total. The big upset so far this season is the Travis Kelsey is playing better than Taylor Swift. Man, people are really upset with that new album from Taylor Swift. Raiders are undefeated because of the nine turnovers they for so far. Chiefs much more efficient play to play. My homes has thrown a couple of picks so far. So if he throws a couple in bad spots and this one who knows what happens, but did you know that Kenneth Walker, is this old news, has never lost a fumble in the NFL? Chiefs get it 24/17. Did you know that? Isn't that why I'm saying? Yeah, I've never heard that, Dave. So I mean, unless the Raiders are going to turn the Chiefs over, which I don't suspect they will, I like the Chiefs to get this one. Yeah, I'll just jump in here, Dave and say, I like the Chiefs as well. Like you want to talk about measuring sticks, the three-in-oh Raiders getting to match up against the Chiefs who look all the way back at home. This is a huge chance to prove that the Raiders are for real. It's that age-old question that we've been asking on the Levitard show for decades now. I don't think they're for real though. I think that the Chiefs, I'm just not quite buying into it yet. I think this is a comeback to Earth game for the Raiders here. Give me the Chiefs big, 31 to 17. Meekabayo. You guys keep doing this every week and every week. Oh, yeah. You're going to return the same situation. Give me the Raiders plus four and a half. I'm going to take the Raiders, excuse me. I'm going to take the Raiders points, but I'm going to take Kansas City to win 24/20. But I do want to read a couple of things here because there's some very interesting numbers that are standing out to me on the Raiders' defense. We talk about how good they've been. Dave, you said about the nine takeaways. They also lead the league in force fumbles. They're forth in the league in Sacks with 10. They're 10th in points allowed. They're 7th in pass rating to opposing QBs. Their second best in EPA, like Nicobie Dean has completely transformed this Raiders defense. What a pick up that was. They're incredible. And then you look at the other side of the ball. Brock Bowers' first return into the Clint Kubiak offense. And he went 10 for 116 in a score. How about this? 45 snaps out wide or in the slot for Brock Bowers. Nine in line is a true tight end. Michael, may are playing full complement of snaps. They're basically using him like Jackson Smith and Jigba in Seattle last season. He's lined up at X receiver. 45 times outwider in the slot, guys. Give me, I'm going to take the Chiefs to win, but I'm going to take the Raiders to cover. Gina. All right, real quick. I'm going to take the Raiders points here. And I'm going to, but I'm going to take KC to win by 124.23. Just because I can't fathom the Raiders beating the Chiefs this early this season. To get us a 4-0, you're taking the 4-0. To get some Dave, the 4-0 Raiders. We all expected them to be a bottom-five team in the NFL. Like, it's clear they're not going to be that. And can they really be five at 4-0? Here's the more craziness. Kurt Cousins is currently leading the AFC in touchdown passes. Now he has Brock Bowers like Tony said. So he can be as conservative as he wants. He's probably not going to get benched until unless something really bad happens. So you probably won't see Mendoza this year if this keeps going. But also, if you have Kurt Cousins, let's do the fantasy angle here. He loves the dump off. He loves the conservative pass. And maybe once or twice, if he sees a receiver streaking down the sideline by himself, he'll let one go. But usually it's going to be a possession ball. Lots of dump-offs, ashton-denty, Mike Washington are going to eat with the short area of passes. Brock Bowers, as Tony said, is pretty much a receiver out there. And Michael Mayer is being left wide open when him and Brock Bowers are on the same side of the field. So that offense is going to go. I don't think this is not going to be a losing streak after this for the Raiders. They might just lose to the Chiefs. I mean, there's no harm in losing to the Chiefs. Yeah, I mean, listen, call me a skeptic. But we saw the Patriots last year. And you see them against different competition this year. And the difference in that Raiders stepping up, obviously, to play the Chiefs this week, who now magically, we now buy, when we didn't necessarily three, four weeks ago. But I think we're all in on the Chiefs, all of a sudden. Now, speaking of the Patriots and Drakemate, that's one subject I want to talk to, with our guests coming up here, Rifa Sun. [APPLAUSE] All right, this figure's to be good, because I'm well aware of this fellow's work. And I hope you are too. If you aren't, shame the devil. Let's write that. You have to head over for his pages to wide left dot football. And if you want the full 3D experience, he's got a new podcast on DeFactor with Aral Pal Drew McGarry. All ball, he is a Rifa Sun. How are you, man? I'm good. I'm good. How are you? Well, I'm getting by. I'm getting by. And I'm not real happy with my favorite pro football team and the decision to move on from a high end cover corner. And of course, my favorite football team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, has a poor track record of late of drafting corner back. So the promise will just replace him in the draft, which is an inherent crapshoot, let alone the fact that they don't have a great knack for drafting that position. But they do consider themselves to be super ball contenders is hard to square. But listen, it's not about me. I want to talk to you about pro football, how are you? And I guess let's start here with this more importantly, how are this many teams that we thought were going to be good, really hanging by a thread here? Let's say the chargers lose and the Texans lose and the Patriots lose and the Rams lose. That's four teams going into the season that a lot of people circled as being factors come January 27. How many of those teams' gooses would be officially cooked? I mean, how do you come back from from 0 and 4? It's real tough, right? Performing a lot better than the record says. I think, for example, Houston obviously needs to work on their offense. But the defense, a lot of people like, where is that defense? And admittedly, by some measures, they're like league average. They were league average through three games last year, actually. But I just think you take a look at their play. You take a look at players like Mara Lasser. You take a look at maybe the problem areas like reblancon ship. I think it's fine. I think that the defense is a high level defense, it'll bounce back, it'll be fine. The problem is, uh, you know, Owen, it doesn't matter how good you are. Owen four is so difficult to come back for. That's right. That's right. It's not like we're marinating a steak. I mean, like, you know, hey, guess what? The steak has been in the fridge marinating for, for 17 days. You missed the window to cook it, man. Yeah. No, exactly. Right. And so I don't know that analogy work. I get it. I get it. Don't worry about it. Uh, you know, I, I think that, you know, Owen four, I'm sure some teams have done it historically. You know, we could look at the, the data or whatever. We, we just know that the odds are long, right? Um, so from there, you probably just have to look at, like, strength of schedule, right? Houston's got a pretty soft one, you know, obviously they're not going to win the division unless something happens in Jacksonville pretty dramatically. But, uh, you know, the way Indianapolis is playing, you know, the way that, you know, the rest of that, that schedule looks, um, I think that, uh, they'll be fine. You get to play Tennessee twice, uh, two teams that are struggling that are on their schedule that probably won't be struggling. By the time they play them, Green Bay and Philadelphia, um, we'll see, you know, if, if things continue the way they go for both of those teams, then that'll help set up the Houston Texans for success. But I kind of doubt it. I think that they'll bounce back to. Um, so for me, I think the team that can best sustain a loss out of the ones that you listed, you know, probably New England, um, again, disappointing, right? All of these teams, we talked about are disappointing the divisions out the window. If they lose head against the bills, they have no shot at that, but they could sneak in as a wild card, perhaps. Yeah. Exactly. But, you know, having the Jets twice, who the Jets are overperforming, I don't want to knock them too much, but I think, you know, the bottom will fall out a little bit. I'm really impressed with them, but I think the bottom will fall out a little bit and then having the dolphins twice on the schedule. That's pretty big. Um, and obviously again, a team that's struggling we don't know if they're going to struggle by the time they get there, Green Bay, you know, that's on the schedule. Same thing with Las Vegas, you know, just like the Jets look really good, seem really coached well, but I think talent is going to kind of win out and they won't be able to sustain that and having them on the schedule will probably help New England too. And again, you know, one in three is a lot better than Oh and four. So I think they could probably sustain that loss a little bit. The Rams are a tough one because I think they're the best here. Right. Yeah. Like it's not a small matter. Again, this would be another team. I think you could rightly say they're shot realistically at winning the West is out the window too. If they're well, absolutely. Yeah. And I think out of all these teams that we talked about, aside from, you know, the Charters, um, they've got, you know, the hardest schedule, right? They've got the 49ers twice. You know, they've got Seattle, obviously, it's, it's, it's the thing they already have. So they have the one strike in the division because they lost over in Australia, which is easy to forget about because it feels like it shouldn't really count for a full game. But it does, but it does. It's in the schedule, right? It's, it's, it's what counts. Having all of that, you know, go down for them. It's so difficult to bounce back and, and, and generate, you know, that movement in at least in the AFC, we've got probably five teams that I would, no one's going to call anybody a lock at this point, but they're like probably five teams that you're pretty happy with, right? Like the, the Ravens and, um, and, and, and the rest of the top of the AFC, the Chiefs were probably seeing the Broncos in there too. Um, so there's really only two spots you're fighting for. Um, yeah, and you're fighting with the bangles for that too. They're, they're two and one. Um, I think that at least in the AFC, there's two spots at the NFC. I, I think that even though we don't have clear division winners for the NFC East or, or the NFC North, because, you know, I don't really trust the Vikings all that much. Um, I see Green Bay and Philadelphia being, you know, significant, you know, stumbling blocks along with the 49ers and the Seahawks and all of that. So, that's what you're, what you're getting at is the math of it. Right. Yeah. How many teams are you reasonably trying to sneak in past here? And, and it probably favors the, I, I'll go ahead with your point. Yeah. Exactly. It probably favors an AFC team, right? And so if you go on a hot streak in the middle of the season, say you're the Texans, you figure out the offense. Nico Collins is healthy, you know, all of that, right? Then you've got, you know, more candidate spots available to you to fight for, right? Especially because, you know, anything can happen with Lamar's health. He was, he did appear for practice today as we're recording, but yesterday he was ill, right? And, and he seems to have illnesses and higher frequency than a lot of other quarterbacks. You know, I think it happened, right? And so we've given all of that and given that I don't believe in the long-term health of the Steelers as a, as a team that, you know, that team that showed up against the, the, the Bengals was fantastic. I'm not, I don't think we're going to see that every week. I think there's just a lot of opportunity to the AFC. And so the math of it is a little bit easier for New England or for, for Houston. The chargers, I, that, they probably have the easiest out of all of these schedules, but like I, it looks so bad. It's tough for me to buy in. I think I'm probably buying in, you know, if we started the season over, I'd buy into the Texans based off of what we've seen so far. But I think given what's baked into the cake already, I'm probably taking the, the Patriots. So I think they've got the best ability to sustain a loss out of all of these teams just because there's more to, to, to fight for. What's your theory? I mean, that hinge is on the hinge of, of the right arm, the shoulder of Drake May. What's your theory there? That I mean, is he hurt? And if he is, I feel like he's semi culpable. It's easy to point the finger at the Patriots and say, why are you running them out there? I, it was weirdly undercovered story that he clearly was hurt going into Super Bowl against the Seahawks. And I feel like in the hype machine in advance of the Super Bowl, the networks, the partners didn't want to acknowledge that because it diminished the quality of the match up to say, yeah, one half of the, the two guys that you care most about the starting quarterbacks, he's hurt. And it wasn't discussed. And then we go all off season and Drake may kind of hint said, yeah, I think I was hurt for that Super Bowl. But it seems like he kind of still is, right? It does seem like it for sure. But one thing to kind of keep in mind is that the level of success to England had last year, a lot of it was built off of the deep ball, which I love the deep ball. I love quarterbacks. We're good at it. I'm not diminishing that as a strategy. What I'm saying is it's really hard to be consistently good at it to the level that the Patriots were last year. I think something like 70% of deep balls were completed for the Patriots throwing dedication on booty. Yeah. And Stefan digs. But like that's, that is, that is quite the level of success to maintain. And I think that very few people, very few quarterbacks, no matter how good you are. And Drake, maybe isn't as good as some of the elites that we talk about are going to be able to do that. So just from variance alone, just from the way the cookie crumbles year to year, right? That wasn't going to sustain itself. And when it's an offense built around that, you're going to see a little bit of aggression. Obviously the entry to AJ Brown didn't help. The most consistent receiver right now is Mac Hollins, who probably ideally is a wide receiver for in a lot of teams, room of your dubs. Obviously isn't doing it for them. And you know, the offensive line isn't playing to the level that we expected. Obviously in the playoffs, we saw Will Campbell's injury play a significant role in how they were able to engage in protection here. We're seeing, you know, problems of chair Wilson. We're seeing problems. I don't know. Did you see the story that he like bled on the ball for one of these snaps? That was crazy. But like the offensive lines are consistent, right? I think WWE at myself, I might let a little blood out of my forehead, just to show. Yeah, right. Exactly. Yeah, I take your point. I also though the other side of that coin is like, that is his superpower is accuracy with the deep shots. And if he loses that, then it affects the way the defense is going to play the rest of the Patriots offense. I want to talk about the Vikings though. From a, from a easy to root for scale, or let's create that scale now, where's Kyler coming in for you so far as a Vikings guy? I'd say probably a five, which I know is a boring answer, right? It's interesting. The team feels good, divides from the outside. I think 31 other fan bases. Look at the Vikings and say, Hey man, they got something cooking up there. But the Vikings fans are sort of like, I don't know if Kyler's going to work out. It needs to be the headline. I think a lot of Vikings fans are traumatized by 2016 where they started out 5 and 0 and then miss the playoffs, right? And a big part of why that happened is because the offense wasn't good. And you can't have the defense outscore the offense for an entire season. So here, obviously, the defense is the story. They're fantastic. They're fun to watch. First of all, a bunch of really good defenses are not necessarily fun to watch. This one is fun to watch. And they're putting their clamps on some opponents that you think should be a little bit more explosive. It's really fun, right? And so that's kind of the engine. They've got a bunch of special team stuff going, which they didn't have going for them last year, which is really nice. Obviously, well, Ryker was good, but when you taught you, when you, you know, include the kick return game, the punt return game, the kick off cover, Jolo, that is way better than it was last year. And I don't know how much that's going to last. Hopefully it will, right? If you're Vikings fan, but, but ideally, multiple sides of the ball are pulling their weight and the offense, I was looking at it by net success right earlier this morning, just, you know, how many plays are you successful, right? You know, you know, as a percentage of the plays that you took. And the Vikings, I think what you just reported are like 32 or 31 in the NFL offensive. We know a lot of that's Corson Wentz, right? Like, we don't want to, but we saw Kyler play, you know, the first five that's, that's, that's to me. That's why I'm, I, you barely have seen Kyler. He didn't look great, but he just got knocked out cold on the field the first time we saw him for about the three minutes of exposure. He had in week one there. And then otherwise it was Corson Wentz. I feel like the bones are strong for the Vikings if they can, they are. The upside is there. And I think we could easily move this five to a seven if we get like a pretty explosive game against Miami, which is like, what a sweet setup game that is trap game. Of course, they're always are. But, you know, given that you've got this kind of opportunity to, to really set some stuff up, you can move up the, the rooting rankings. But I think a lot of Vikings fans expected the same thing that they expected of Corson's in 2018 when he showed up, which he didn't fulfill, which was, we've got the defense set up. We just need to, we've got a great receiver. We just need a quarterback to execute. And thus far, the quarterback has an execute. It's been one game plus five more throws. But they were not good. The five throws were bad. The one game was pretty bad. Obviously we had this deep ball, the Jordan Addison, which was really fun. But we're missing a couple of deep throws. He had something like a 50% or even lower completion rate, and it looked like more his fault than the receivers fault. So there's just a lot there where you're like, man, I expected a lot more. And maybe this is a small sample size. Maybe it's kind of the sin of expectation that we're not taking what we have and just appreciating it, especially because I think a lot of people expected the Vikings to finish fourth in the division and out there at the top. Maybe just take your wins. But we expected more from Kyler. And that could change really quickly. So it's a soft five. Maybe we're not nailing it down. But I think it's been disappointing. We just know, hey, it's not McCarthy and it won't be. Well, that's right. And it's not Kirk Cousins either. Who by the time he left, I think you guys were ready to move on as well. And I'm putting my marker down now. I'm standing by what I said in the preseason. The Vikings are going to win the NFC North. And now the football gods seem to be smiling on that prediction because the Packers don't look great. The Caleb is down for at least another week or two. It would it seems although you're hearing some noise that he's getting closer to to being back. And Detroit, I think this is not the way they are playing is who they are. I think they are a lousy defense. And yeah, by the way, I'll tell you this. I'm going to do one more for you. Arif, check this out. The Panthers are going to beat the Lions this weekend to enhance the Viking's chances even further. How would you think about that? This house is exciting. I think the Panthers have a couple of injury concerns heading into this week. If I remember correctly, I'm not 100% on that. But that seems to be the case. Don't you don't you push back. I just said so. I'm so proud of people about a lousy asm. But if that happens, I think the Lions defense is enough for us to see another because remember the Panthers week one that offense looked great against a pretty mediocre Chicago defense. The Lions defense I would argue is worse. And mostly because of injury. And you know, Kelvin Shepard's not doing a great job or whatever. So if we get to see a lot out of Truba Hubbard, if we get to see a lot out of Bryce Young, and you know, they contain Gibbs's explosiveness, which is I think where the danger offensively comes from. Then yeah, the Lions or I wouldn't say cooked or anything like that. But like we were talking about with all these other teams. What an uphill battle that would be, especially, you know, the Vikings jump out to a 4-0 lead against a Miami team that seems really concerned with winning next year or more than it is this year, which is fine. That's a good approach if you've got the patience for it. But it's it's as long as they don't go in 17. Right. Yeah. One in 16. That's okay. If you go in 17, that's a stink that you never wash off for a hundred years. You never do. And I think there's a particular weirdness about being the only 17 to know when oh, oh, in 17 franchise. That's exactly the point. That's a great point to go out on. That's a yeah. Who do you think you are? You the Cleveland Browns? No, you're the Miami Dolphin. You're a scored franchise. Shame the devil that you would purposely go over. Anyway, a reef Hassan great great debut here. Best our guide Drew McGarry over there. Tell the Vikings they got they would look so good if they would just go with a white face mask. That black one is ruining the the whole extent. That's so true. I agree. I'll let him know. Okay. Thank you. And I hope to talk sooner rather than later. There he goes, everybody. A reef Hassan, make sure you're checking them out. Like I say, wide left dot football in the great new podcast all ball with Drew McGarry. All right. There goes a reef. You heard my big prediction there. I'm going to take the Panthers over the Lions. And that gets us to this week's episode of Draft King Sports picks picks picks one favorite against the spread one over under one underdog. I'll start us off favorite. I'm taking the Rams to go into Philly. It's a weird number, right? That the Rams spooky. It is a spooky line. Yes. The Rams are you know what? Play it. Everybody's I bet you that is in the in the top two, the public loot will will be on the ego side. The bookmakers are telling you something. I like the Rams here. How say you buddy? Yeah. I'll be doing by the way season today. Yeah. Okay. So we guys, we're locked in a absolute battle here. Like we are all kind of on we're we're right around it in terms of just being over 500. So God, that was awful. Okay. Last week was a very good week for Geno and Tony and and Dave and I lesser. So Dave and I both went one and two. Dave nailed his over under pick going under 45 and a half for the season dolphins. But he got the Saints minus three wrong and the bucks plus one and a half wrong. I missed on the Texans minus two and a half. I'm going to fight through it here and I missed on the Titans money line as well. But the Cowboys and Ravens went over that was a thriller. Tony two and one Raiders plus three Rams Broncos over 44 and a half. But the loss was the Panthers minus two and a half to the pounds. That was ugly. Geno and well, I know, right? Geno and I both had the Titans on the money line. But he'd had the Chiefs minus 11 and a half which covered and the Saints and Raiders going over 40. The Titans on the money line. It was gross. It was gross. It was gross. I didn't account for a month soon. I forgot about the nori. He stood even though I got caught up in the nori. It was crazy. You forget that they were the Titans. Yeah. Yeah. You know, remember that. Try or try to remember they're the Titans. Go ahead. Who's your favorite? Dave, I may have forgotten about the Titans, but I have not forgotten that I am leading the season standings right now. I have five points. All the rest of you have four and to try and add to it this week, I'm going to take the Cardinals minus two and a half at the Giants. The Cardinals sneaky, super competitive this year. I know they had that blowout loss to the Seahawks. We all know they beat the Chargers week one and they pushed the Niners to the Edge last week. I don't like the situation there on offense in New York. Give me the Cardinals minus two and a half. Mikabayo. I'm going to take the Bills minus six and a half land just under a touchdown. I think Josh Allen's going to learn from what happened this past week with a ton of turnovers. I think they're going to clear that up. And I just have zero faith in what the Patriots are putting out on offense right now. Drake May is seeing Ghosts. I'll say I'm darn old. They have no weapons. They're starting the wrong running back like everything that is happening could go everything that's going wrong. It has gone wrong for New England. So I'm going to take Josh Allen and the Bills minus six and a half. Gina. All right. Well, I'm going to do some easy gambling here. I'm going to go ahead and bet against the undrafted free agent quarterback that's making his first start in the NFL. I'm going to take the Packers negative three and a half to go into Tampa Bay. Negative three and a half. Reasonable. Reasonable. Next up, let's do the total here. I'm going under on the Cardinals in Giants 44 and a half exactly where would the points come from in this game? Next. Great question. I'll go. Oh, okay. Go ahead. No, go ahead. I'm going to take. I'm going to take New York Jets and Chicago over 43 and a half. I think we saw enough good tape from from from Case Kingdom. And I think the Jets are kind of a alright team. I feel like they're going to score more than that 43 and a half over. Buddy. I am going to go to that Rams in Eagles game. You want to talk about spooky numbers. This 43 and a half seems pretty low because 24/20 gets you over here between two highly talented offenses. Pukana Kua is back this week. Give me Rams Eagles over 43 and a half at the link. Gina. Okay. The Lions and the Panthers. The number is at 51 and a half, but it's outdoors, which already got the Lions on their back foot. It's also supposed to rain. Lots of weather on the East Coast so far during this football season. It's going to continue this week. It's supposed to be raining all day in Charlotte. So I'm going to take that one under 51 and a half. My dog is I love the Case Kingdom show on Monday night. The Jets are pretty good. Mi Caballo has noticed that Jets plus three and a half. They're going to win this game out. Right. I'll say you, buddy. Oh, give me. We talked about that Loan Star Showdown at the top of the show. Give me the Cowboys plus three at the Texans. I know I picked the Texans to go to the Super Bowl and the AFC here. I regret that immensely, Tony. I'm out on them and I just think the Cowboys eventually some of this luck is a bounce is going to go their way. Obviously they created their own misfortune with the way they handled that game down in Brazil last week, but give me the Cowboys here. I think the addition of Joey Porter Jr. is going to do a lot of good for that defense. I'll take them plus three in Houston. Tony, I'm going to take black and silver plus four and a half. So be it, you're really in on them in Gina. All right. I'm going to take the commies in London against the Colts because to put it bluntly, the Colts don't the Colts ain't shit. And I don't think they're bad, man. Well, they they good. So I'm going to take the commies. They they surprised the Seahawks. They're going to go crazy stuff happens across the pond. And you know, they got a three and a half point cushion. So I'm going to go ahead and take the commies in that one. Very interesting and I was super hot in LA just a second ago. We're in a heat wave here, but all of a sudden, I'm feeling a chill in the air. Yeah, presented by Jagermeister. Servant cold or don't serve it at all. Jagermeister. Damn, that's cold. For more, visit Jagermeister.com drink responsibly. You know, it's weird. I'm glad I asked because we all agreed the best champion NFL team has at sustained successes. Having one, a true franchise QB and two, a great head coach, right? Right. So then how do we explain the Philadelphia Eagles? Their head coach is Nick Syriani, a guy who gets into fights during games with Eagles fans. And the QB is Jalen Hertz, who's better than Andy Dalton, maybe, okay, definitely after we saw what happened in Chicago with his one pass, but he's, but he's also not on the level of the AFC's upper cross QBs, but to Hertz's credit, I got to say this, if he starts just one more Super Bowl, it'll be real tough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame. And if he were to win that Super Bowl, he'd be a lock. And so would his head coach Nick Syriani. So I ask again, that's weird, right? Neither Lamar Jackson nor Josh Allen's ever even played in the Super Bowl. And Hertz has already been the two both against Patrick Mahomes and he actually won one of them. Jame obviously applies to Syriani who beat Andy Reed, a legend, one of the best head coaches ever, but who only really was acknowledged as such after he got over the Lombardi hump with Mahomes. Again, Andy Reed couldn't win a Lombardi in Philly with Donovan McNabb, but Nick Syriani, a guy who was coaching DBs at a D3 school a few years ago, did with Jalen Hertz, who for his part, not too long ago, had to transfer out of Bama because he couldn't beat out to for the starting gig, especially coming out of the city of Rocky Balboa. This should feel like a great underdog story, except in this Philadelphia story, everyone outside of Philly is rooting for Apollo Creed. And I got to say big Dom ain't helping. He's what you would get if King Kong Bundy was a soprano's character. Now listen, it's not a mystery. The lion's share of the credit belongs to how he rose men, who's devoted the last decade, at least to loading up at the line of scrimmage over and over, which to some degree has given his coach and QB a much larger margin for error than most of the high end QBs have. But still, given what we've convinced ourselves are the basic requirements for a Super Bowl contender, I stand amazed by Philly's successful formula. Now though, at two in one, after getting pushed in the Tush and everywhere else by case, Keenum, Syriani and Hertz need a win against the visiting pretty boys from L.A. Or else, Syriani and Hertz could be headed to the Rocky five era, AKA back to the streets. And that's that we're going to be back for a review of everything in week four on the other side of the weekend on Monday live at 12 45 PM Eastern to try and make sense of it. Till then, it's been a thin slice of heaven. I hope your team wins. Unless they're playing my team, take it away, football. 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