Iran war: Oil prices soar

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. This is not the future we were promised. Like hell that out for a tagline for the show. From the BBC, this is the interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world. This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your everyday life. And all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts. This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Charlotte Gallagher and at 1600 hours GMT on Monday, the 9th of March, these are our main stories. Oil prices surge as the US-Israel war with Iran continues. President Trump says it's a very small price to pay for what he calls "world peace". But how long will this continue? The new Supreme Leader of Iran is the son of the last one, leading some Iranians to despair about the future. This means that nothing is going to change. It's the same path, perhaps even worse. Anyhow, I don't think the situation can continue. I don't think that it will last. Also in this podcast, what will happen to the Iranian women's football team after they refuse to sing their national anthem? They're in Australia now, but will they return home if they did see asylum? And we do not know whether they do want to. What would that mean for their families back home? We start with the economic fallout of the US and Israeli war against Iran. Its impact is spreading across the globe. Oil prices have shot up by 20 per cent today to more than $100 a barrel and stock markets have fallen. Donald Trump has said it's a very small price to pay for what he calls "world peace". G7 Finance ministers have been discussing the release of emergency oil reserves but say no decision has been taken. The Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world's oil supply is usually shipped, has all been but closed to traffic for a week now. The BBC's Anna Foster is in Doha. There are beautiful wooden dows all around this jetty here. They normally take people around this harbor on tourist trips. But because of the war, that's all being cancelled. But then even further out, those other ships that are really drawing attention at the moment. Because they can't get through the Strait of Hormuz, which is just a way to my right, where the Gulf really narrows. And when you look, I've been taking a look at one of these apps that shows you what shipping traffic is out there. And I've been looking at the oil tank as in particular. So I click on this one. This is a Panamanian crude oil tank of the Aqua One at Anka. This is the well sale. You can see there's a real cluster. They're stuck on the inside so they can't get out and take their cargo around the world. And similarly on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, again, when you look on screen at all these little turquoise and red and green arrows that mark different ships, you can see again a cluster that need to get here to refill and they stick on the other side as well. And that is why when we talk about the global economic impact, you see it right here. You see it on this tiny screen on my phone. Everything has ground to a halt. Some oil depots in Iran have also been destroyed over the weekend. Our International Business Correspondent Theo Leggett told me more. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, global oil prices have increased by about $30 a barrel. So there were around $72 a barrel in late February. They're now hovering above $100. We did see a spike of $119 all thereabouts overnight. But things have tailed off a little bit. Now that's a very significant increase. And oil prices are now at the highest level. They've been since immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A lot depends on how long prices stare these levels and how high they ultimately go. Obviously news of the G7 talks about potentially releasing oil reserves has brought the headline price down a bit for the moment. But those decisions will undoubtedly affect where the price goes in the short term. Now a higher oil price translates into higher costs. For factories that are making things, it's their energy bills, transport costs for goods, fuel costs for ordinary people. You know, the petrol and diesel you put in your car, those could go up. So a sway of costs go up. We've also seen a big increase in the price of gas. Because about a fifth of the world supplies of liquefied natural gas come through the straits of hormones. That can increase the cost of household heating. It can increase the costs of industrial energy. It also can increase the cost of electricity. For example, in the UK, the price of electricity is very closely linked to the price of gas because gas is used in generation. So all of these costs could go up, which means if you have a sustained high oil price, it will lead to inflation. The question is how much inflation? You mentioned Russia there. And they are one country that could benefit from this because the US have already eased some sanctions on Russian oil. Do you think more of that will happen? Potentially because this is an idea about keeping oil in the system. So what the US has done is withdrawn a threat to take action against India. If India keeps on buying consignments of Russian oil against the interests of sanctions. Now Russia has been able to supply oil despite the war in Ukraine. But those supplies have had their price capped by action from the US, the European Union and others. What this means is it's easier for Russia to sell that oil and it may get a higher price for it. The more money Russia gets from oil, the more that feeds into Russia's budget. It eases the economic problems that have been caused by the squeeze from sanctions. As you mentioned, the G7 Finance Minister's meeting today, they may release some oil reserves. But presumably that's a limited pot. They don't have a huge amount to release today. Yes, it is a limited pot. As I understand it, it's about four days of global output. That's the equivalent. So releasing some of that and they wouldn't, they certainly wouldn't release all of it. But releasing some of that in the short term would bring oil prices down. But the problem is when do you release it? Do you release it now in order to ease whatever spike we're going through at the moment? Or do you wait until, for example, the Northern Hemisphere winter when it might be badly needed? How long do you think this crisis is going to go on for? Theo Legit. And we have more on the economic impact of the war on our YouTube channel. Search for BBC News on YouTube and you'll find Global News podcast in the podcast section. There's a new story available every weekday. Heavy explosions have continued to rock the Iranian capital after the country named its new supreme leader, Majtaba Hameini. Little is known about the 56-year-old son of the last supreme leader who was killed in an airstrike nine days ago. Only a few photos and videos of him have ever been published. But it's expected he'll rule in the same way as his hard-lined father. Thousands of people have gathered in a central square in Tehran to pledge their allegiance to him. But there were chance of defiance in Tehran when the news was first announced. BBC Persian has received some messages from people in Tehran who don't support the Iranian regime with their reaction to the news. We've voiced up their words. Even the slimest chance for a change no longer exists within the system. The assembly could not have selected anyone closer to the former leader. So everything will remain much the same. They don't even need to change their chance to support the name. Why isn't there much information available about him so we can see how charismatic he actually is? They sent out mass texts saying he has become the leader. Now I'm just waiting for Trump's speech. It's the same path. Perhaps even worse. I don't think that he will last. For more, I spoke to our chief international correspondent, Leastu Set. He has really been in the shadow of his father. He's been working in his office for decades, a very reclusive figure, and very mysterious. I mean, just imagine that suddenly he is propelled into the top position in the Islamic Republic of Iran. At a time of war, any Iranians don't even know what his voice sounds like. Last night, when there was an ounce of Iranian friends were looking online to see any evidence of public speeches. There were none. Anytime many public events that were hardly any. He's not held any formal government positions. They don't really know that much about him. But what they do know, as you've just been reporting for, those who support the government, it's a continuity of the Hamina line, a hard line, conservative line. For those who had hoped that the start of the war was the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic, they think that a harsh regime will become a harsher still. One of the moments that's being mentioned now in articles about him is what happened in 2005 and 2009, where a very conservative cleric, Mahmoud Aminin Ajad, one disputed presidential elections and the prominent reformist candidates, those who are seen as being more moderate in Iran's political spectrum, accused him of conspiring behind the scenes to rig the election victory. So if that is the beginning of his work behind the scenes, he now emerges a little bit from that shadow to see a cementing of the power of the hardliners with the reformers, including the president, Mr. Spetsch is gone, being pushed every morning to the sidelines. Do you think we'll even see him that much in public, at least for the moment, Lisa, considering I mean, he's such a target for the US and Israel? There's been not a sign of Mr. Bahamine since Saturday morning after those first strikes, which killed not just his father, Ayatollah Hamine, but also his mother, his wife, and one of his sons. And that I should mention, Charlottes is now another dimension in this war. It's deeply personal. It's about revenge. He wants to take revenge, and Donald Trump, who didn't want him to be in power, also sees it as personal revenge, because as we know, he doesn't like people taking issue with him. So he hasn't been seen. It was reported that he was injured, and it's not clear that he is. So he's got this conundrum. He's got to project stability and continuity, but he also has to keep himself alive when he's got a target on his back. That was Liesty Set. Along with the economic cost of this war, there's also, of course, the human cost. The greatest single loss of civilian lives came, as far as we know, right at the start of the war, with an airstrike on a school in the southern town of Menab. A video uploaded by around semi-official, man news agency of the moment a missile appears to hit the school, more than 160 people died, many of them young girls. I said the video appears to show impact, while the video has now been verified by the BBC's in-house team of specialists, Merlin Thomas told Tim Franks the latest. We've been investigating this deadly incident that happened on the first day of the war, and in this war there's been limited amounts of video footage emerging because of the internet blackout. But this new video that's emerged, heads new light on exactly what's happened, because yesterday the semi-official news agency, Mer, published a video moments before a missile hits the base. Now, we've slowed the video right down, and we've shown it to multiple weapons experts who've identified the missile as a US Tomahawk missile. That's worth saying that Israel and Iran do not have Tomahawks. So to be clear, this new video doesn't show the missile hitting the school building, but you can see smoke rising in the background near the school building. And because of that, and expert analysis of Verifold videos and satellite imagery, it suggests that the area came under a wave of US strikes. And you can see that in satellite imagery, which shows a number of buildings that were hit. Donald Trump has said in terms, and I think it was just on Saturday that he said, when asked the question to the US bomb the school, no, in my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran. It sounds as if this could contradict that. Yes, it casts serious doubt on what President Donald Trump has said. He obviously has blamed Iran for the strike on the school. And we've asked the US about this, and we'll continue to investigate that. But experts that we've spoken to, the body of evidence we've looked at as well, as satellite imagery indicates that the presence of a Tomahawk missile says that this was a US operation. Just briefly, I mean, any reason why the US would not be able to establish whether they had bombed the school by now. It's not clear. Normally in these kinds of operations, they would have intelligence that would indicate where they've struck. So they've not explained and been forthcoming us to why they haven't come forward with an answer. That was Merlin Thomas. Still to come in this podcast. When we actually start looking at objects and can actually see chisel marks or, you know, somebody's thumbprint or something like that, you immediately become more connected to the person he made it. A new finding reveals ancient Egyptians would just like us. To Turkey now. Large crowds of supporters of Istanbul's jailed mayor marching ahead of a landmark corruption trial that they call politically motivated. Ekrem Imamolu was arrested shortly after announcing his intention to run for president and is seen as one of the few politicians capable of defeating President Erdogan. If Ekrem Imamolu had not announced his presidential candidacy, today he would still be in office as the metropolitan mayor. Today with a political coup of a political trial, he's being held in a trap. The case is political. Our mayors are imprisoned because it is political. I do not believe there is any corruption, nor do I want to believe it. He faces more than 140 charges, including corruption and running a criminal organization. Emory Temel from the BBC's Turkish service told me more. Ekrem Imamolu was jailed on the same day. He was announced as presidential candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, in March last year. And his arrest triggered Turkey's largest street protests in more than a decade. This is a long awaited trial, which began today. It is expected to last several years and it is considered as one of the most significant legal proceedings in recent Turkish political history. We heard the accusations at the time Istanbul's chief public prosecutor Akhen Gürlük, who is Turkish Justice Minister now, requested prison sentences totaling more than 2500 years. Mr Imamolu denies all the charges, is requested for the trial to be broadcast live on TV as being rejected by the government. Wow. I mean what's the mood in Turkey around this trial? Obviously we heard from some of his supporters there, but presumably some people have different feelings. Yes, the mood is tense and I'm polarized, I should say. Many opposition supporters view the trial as politically motivated as we heard, aimed at weakening a key challenger to Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and street protests and demonstrations, they reflected anger and frustration among Mr Imamolu's supporters. And today's courtroom rooms scenes have been kind of chaotic, a pause for the mayor signaling a strong public opinion. However, on the other hand, pro-government supporters largely accept the judicial processes legitimate. President Erdogan and his party maintained that Turkey's judiciary is independent. However, overall I should say this trial has intensified political tension and raised public concern about the state of democracy in Turkey. And human rights groups external have also raised concerns, haven't they? Yes, they have expressed concern over the independence of Turkish courts and trial has drawn widespread criticism outside the country. Both human rights watch and amidst the international have denounced it has politically motivated. They both argue that the case undermines democratic norms and judicial interdependence, independence, sorry, and amnesty specifically highlighted concerns over secret witness testimony and fair trial violations. Overall international reaction reflects significant unease about democracy and human rights in Turkey. Emory Temel. To South Sudan, where the world's youngest nation is grappling with instability and fears of a return to civil war, thousands of people have fled the rebel stronghold of a cobo in John Gray State after the army issued an evacuation order as it prepares a new military offensive. Government forces are trying to retake territory from those loyal to first vice president, re-at-marker, whose intention and juba on charges of murder, treason, and crimes against humanity, which he denies. Calcadan Yebethal is at an aid center. This is a humanitarian hub in war, which is the capital of John Gray State. It tells to us largest state and recently it's most rusty. Since the beginning of the year, there have been intense clashes in various areas within the state, between government forces, and rebels that are aligned with imprisoned opposition leader Rick Machar. Now over the weekend, the army has announced an evacuation order in a county called Acobo, which is one of the most remote in the state. It said that it's about to launch a new military offensive and it told humanitarian agencies, members of the UN mission, to close their offices and evacuates. It also told civilians try to seek shelter in government-controlled areas. Now this Acobo area is a stronghold for the rebel forces. I've been speaking to some of the aid organizations here and they're telling me that thousands of people are already fleeing from that county, mean of the monies and they, some crossed borders into neighboring Ethiopia, because that county is close to the Ethiopian border and others are running away in different directions. Aid organizations have left the area as well in UN chartered planes on Sunday, which means some of the towns in those areas are currently deserted. Civilians have often been caught in the crossfire and a no number of people have been killed and close to 300,000 people are displaced. The most recent evacuation order is feared to exacerbate these situations and even more people are feared to flee their homes. That's going to worsen the humanitarian situation which is already dire as it is. Added to that this ongoing insecurity it's going to be very difficult for many desperate people to receive very essential supplies that they require. Calcuttaan Yebetaal. The Ukrainian President of the Lodemyz-Zalensky has said he's sending drone experts to the Middle East this week to help Gulf states under attack from Iran. Just before we recorded this podcast, Mr Zalensky said that 11 countries had asked for Ukraine's help after it spent four years inventing cheap and effective ways of defending the skies from similar Russian attacks. Our diplomatic correspondent James Landale is in Ukraine and has been to see the latest anti-drone technology the country has to offer. We're standing in a field in the middle of the Ukrainian countryside and it's a place where people come to test drones and we've come to look at a drone called a bullet. They're putting it together in front of us and it looks like a very strange weapon, a hybrid weapon, half quadcopter drone, half plastic shell and it's the latest technology, the latest design that the Ukrainians have come up with to destroy lethal Russian-shared drones that attack Ukraine almost nightly. The bullets just taken off rising on its four propellers and then suddenly whoosh away it goes it tips on its side, rockets away and it now it's just a small spec on the horizon. The top speed is well over 300 kilometers an hour. This is one of Ukraine's newest and fastest interceptors and the idea behind it is very simple. The pilots launch the bullet and use a first-person camera simply to crash it into an incoming drone. They're deadly and the pilots know they could be just as effective against similar Iranian shahead drones causing havoc across them at least. This drone pilot, Kulsar and Drakha, thinks Ukraine has much to offer. Honestly, we have enough work here but we understand that this war is spreading across the world and that Iran is an ally of Russia. So I think we could find the resources to send our instructors to train people who are fighting the same enemy. We've come now to the factory where the drones are made, there are rows and rows of men and women soldering, assembling, fixing, sorting and there are piles and piles of these drones. You really get a sense of just how relatively simple it is to make these drones and why they're so cheap. Stanislaw Grushan is co-founder of the General Cherry drone company. Are you surprised that it's taken this amount of time for the rest of the world to wake up to the importance of this? I'm really surprised. It seems that every country is preparing to the past wars but not the ongoing ones. Have any countries come to you? Have you had extra demand requests in the last week? Yes. A lot of state agents from different countries from all over the world, not just Arabic ones who are already facing the threat from Iran. They understand now how it may be. Their request is pretty high and very urgent. President Zelensky says Ukrainian experts will arrive in the Gulf this week to offer immediate help with drone defenses but he's clear nothing should damage Ukraine's own and he's looking to swap interceptors for more patriot missiles. The war in the Middle East poses risks for Kiev, rising oil prices, fueling Russia's war machine distracted allies turning their attention elsewhere. But Ukraine's hard-won expertise in interceptor drones gives President Zelensky an opportunity, not just to win new friends and funds in the Gulf but also to keep his war from being forgotten. That was James Landel. This concern about the safety of the Iranian women's football team after they refused to sing their national anthem at the first game at the Asia Cup in Australia. The squad did sing the anthem at their next two games but they've been called war-time traitors by a conservative commentator in Iran who's calling for them to be punished. They're now out of the tournament and due to return home but many in the Australian Iranian community are encouraging the women to apply for asylum. Donald Trump too has said that forcing the team back to Iran would be a terrible humanitarian mistake. I've been talking to our Australia correspondent Katie Watson. I've been at the hotel all day and I've seen some of the players and they're being watched closely. There's been very little contact. Certainly I was speaking to some Iranian Australians here, many have tried to reach out to the team and not succeeded. And there is certainly concern about what the fact that they didn't sing the national anthem and then did what it means if they do go back to Iran. So of course they're now out of the tournament so the expectation is that they would then return to Iran. Obviously there is a war going on so logistically it might be quite hard to go back but also there is a lot of pressure and they've been put in a very difficult situation because if they did seek asylum and we do not know whether they do want to or whether all of them want to that's something that's very individual. Well if they did then what would that mean for their families back home. So I think there is that concern. I was speaking to Amnesty International earlier who was saying that one of the other issues is communication. Do they know that they are able to seek asylum and that's also need to be communicated to them. So there is concern about what what it means for the players if they did decide to return and if they decided not to return also for their families. At the match on Sunday there were people chanting kind of saying that they will support the women here if they wanted to stay so there's certainly support there. But yeah it's an incredibly difficult situation certainly seeing some of the players today. I mean they do have people with them all the time and there isn't you know there hasn't been much communication with the team and it was interesting because at the match last night there was very little interaction between the team and the fans unlike the Philippine side who did line up and thank their supporters the the the Iranian side went straight off the pitch at the end of the match and only there was one player who was seeking medical assistance on the sidelines at some point during the match turned and blew a kiss to the crowd and there were huge cheers so there was a bit of a statement really but that was the only thing that we really saw and so it's very hard to get any kind of real understanding of what the team is wanting to do and also you know when they're going. That was Katie Watson in Australia. Now to a bit of ancient history for our younger listeners. Before the delete key there was something called correction fluid. It's a gloopy liquid usually white because most paper is white and applied to your mistakes on the page with a little brush attached to the top of a small bottle so why am I telling you this because it now appears it's really ancient history. Staff at the Fitzwilliam Museum in England have they say discovered that ancient Egyptians had their own version to take care of spelling mistakes or wayward brushstrokes three thousand years ago. Haddon Strudwick is the senior creator for the ancient Nile Valley at the museum she told Tim Franks where she spotted this fluid. Well we're seeing it on a papyrus that contained a text that we refer to as the book of the dead which is a funeral papyrus and that is illustrated with small vignettes that accompany various spells that are written inside there. And on one of those we see a very large black jackal and either side of the body of the jackal is a very noticeable when you spot it white stripe. The looks very much like the old style of tipex that I used to use when I was using a typewriter to correct it and it looks as if it's been used to change the shape of the body of the animal. You can see it really clearly when you sort of stop and look at it in any detail. The thing is that most people only glance at the vineyard because the text is the part that has been in the past the very interesting thing to Egyptologists but when you start looking at the way that the vineyards have been painted then there's a moment where you go oh why is there that white stripe there and another one there. And why do you think that this was a sort of correction fluid as opposed to an addition that they decided that they wanted the black torso of this jackal to sort of look multicolored. Well looking at the rest of the papyrus the artist or artists is extremely skilled and doesn't use paint in a wasteful way at all. So where there are layers of paint they are used very carefully. So we use infrared imagery on it and that allows us to see through the layers of paint. you see the black layers of paint that might be underneath things. And you know, right is rain, we could see that the body originally was much, much fatter and that there's these white stripes which overlie a significant part of the black. So it's quite clear, it's been done to thin it down. I then also have been looking at editions of other books of the dead and lo and behold, yes, I can see it on other papyrus. To me, it's been a delight to actually have time to draw people's attention to these amazing people who made these things and to kind of really humanise the Egyptians perhaps a bit more because for a lot of people, the first focus of their attention has always been on the kings of Egypt or the maybe esoteric religious thinking that the Egyptians had but when we actually start looking at objects and can actually see chisel marks or you know, somebody's thumbprint or something like that, you immediately become more connected to the person who made it. That was Helen Strudwick at the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge. And that's all from us for now. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at [email protected]. You can also find us on x@bbcworldservice. Use the hashtag #globalnewspod and don't forget our sister podcast, the global story. This edition of the global news podcast was mixed by Kai Perry and the producer was Charles Sanctuary. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Charlotte Gallagher. Until next time, goodbye. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your everyday life and all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.