In India, a demographic golden age dawns

The economic news of the day and the week, of course, and then the economic news of the future are series The Age of Work from American Public Media. This is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Riznal. It is Monday today, the 12th of October good, as it always is, to have you along, everybody. Not a whole lot of data today, it being a federal holiday and all, but we are in for a big week during which inflation will be front and center. The Labor Department will share with us an update on the Consumer Price Index Wednesday morning. The producer price index on Thursday and the import price index come Friday. Some Marketplace's Justin Ho is going to get us going with what we in the news business call a look ahead. Whenever inflation reports come out, the numbers that get the most attention are the headline figures, which include food and energy prices. But let's set those aside because when it comes to energy prices right now, we don't know a lot. Nicole Servey is in the comments with Wells Fargo. We don't know how any of the president's deals with Russia or whoever are going to affect oil markets. We don't know when or if the war is going to end. Servey says energy prices are just too volatile. And similarly, food is in the same category where you could have a bad harvest in a far flowing area that swings the entire food category. If you strip out food and energy prices, you get what's known as core inflation. And it's running kind of hot too. Ryan Sweet, Chief Global Economist with Oxford Economics, says that's partly because of AI demand, dropping up prices for computing, memory chips. Another factor is tariffs. Jennifer Lee with BMO Capital Market says they are also pushing up the price of electronics and other imported goods, but the thing is, you can't really strip energy prices out of your inflation calculation. Nicole Servey at Wells Fargo says apparel prices are going up because of higher transportation costs, which are being pushed up by higher fuel prices. Same story with airfares. They're up more than 20% relative to a year ago. And that is because a lot of their cost comes from jet fuel. She says it can take a year for the rising cost of energy to eventually show up in consumer prices. I'm Justin Howe from Marketplace. I'm sure you've heard the no bell news of the day the prize went to Americans for coming up with to quote the committee, an understanding of how the total mass of individual households and businesses affect the economy through their actions. I mean, I'm just saying, but that's what we do on this program every single day. Wall Street to start the week stocks did trade bonds did not kind of a wash all in all. We will have the details when we do the numbers. [Music] Sometimes we record interviews that just don't make it to air. Today though, we're going to make an exception. The audio you're going to hear in the next minute or two is from May of last year. When ADP chief economist Nila Richardson and I met a 34-year-old guy in Salt Lake City, Utah, for our series The Age of Work, it's about how changing demographics or changing the global economy. Healthy countries like the United States and Europe are getting older, developing economies like Vietnam and for us today, India are younger and getting more productive. Here's that audio. [Music] My name is Achille Tapia. I am a software/video game developer, I've been in Utah for 11 years to August and I'm soon going to be moving back to India. Achille got his masters in the United States, worked a series of jobs in video games and technology until he was laid off. He did look for something new, could not find anything before his visa ran out. We didn't air that interview because just as we got home and started working on the stories from that trip, remember this was May of last year, American immigration policy turned upside down. One thing he said though, did stay with us. Have you ever lived in India as an adult? No. Yeah, I often think about that and I think it would be interesting to kind of get the experiences that I've had here and then apply them to about as diametrically opposite of a culture as I can find, like Utah is kind of quiet and I come from Mumbai which is like one of the densest, busiest cities in the world. Fact check, true, we should just stop and get some of this street ambay baby. The thing you never hear is the sound of a collision which just amazes me. Deela and I were in Mumbai last month and we both knew that one of the first things we had to do was get back in touch with Achille. His neighborhood looks a lot like you'd find in New York maybe, lots of traffic, tall buildings, apartments, above ground floor retail and fittingly for Achille, remember he's a software and video games guy. His street is Mumbai's wholesale and retail hub for electronics. Side by side stores, full to the brim with computer gear and laptops and cords, repair people, too of course. The entrance to Achille's place is next to a store that's all audio equipment, speakers and sound boards and microphones and then off to the side, a tiny staircase. These are steep steps. These are no joke stairs. I can't imagine bringing groceries up. Besides being steep, these steps up to the fourth floor were also super narrow and before I could even knock Achille's dad open the front door. Oh, hello, good to see you again, how are you? Sorry to intrude. Please. Hi, great to see you again. Achille's parents kept to the next room, trying to stay out of the way. Yes, those are my friends. They come in and watch if they want. It's just us talking. Yeah, they're very excited to be here too. Mom and dad have moved to a new place, so Achille is actually living here in the family's old apartment. Go when he grew up in. You're used to holding the mic as well, sir. This is, believe it or not, only my second time. There you go. It's all the matters. It's all matters. It's been a year. Yes, it has been quite an eventful year. In some ways and then somewhat uneventful in other ways. The change was very big and I don't think I'm fully used to it yet. So, obviously like having a family and all of that is a big help. But yeah, the city is not quite my speed. It's a bit too fast for me now. I mean, I get it. Mumbai is kind of overwhelming and in your face. You can find every slice of the Indian economy in this one city. It's the financial capital as well. And one reason it does move so fast is because there are so many young people here. The median age in Mumbai and in India as a whole is around 29, 10 years younger than the United States. And global companies are taking notice. They are investing in India, growing their presence and opening offices here. For your friends who didn't work in the US, what is a perception of the US and working in the US that is different than your actual experience? I think it is largely driven by Instagram and like shorts and like social media. Oh good. Yeah, that's pretty much captures the US, right? I think it is a bit more on the negative side now just because news of layoffs and immigration problems is largely how people in India relate through people like me who might have moved back where it's not a favorable thing. I think people are not excited to move abroad as much because the prospect of coming back is just as high. Granted that you seem to have landed on your feet. Your life has been turned upside down and you seem remarkably positive. Yeah, I mean, what else, what other option do I have? Akeel isn't the only young person in India asking themselves that question. India is the biggest source of international students for American colleges. But now, because of stricter visa rules and all the rest, fewer of them are even applying to study in the United States. The policy changes and the uncertainty also mean that Indians like Akeel who often have worked in technology, or business, or medicine in the United States are returning to India. More skilled young people entering an already young and crowded workforce. A couple of miles from the Keele's apartment and the electronics retail hub he lives right in the middle of, is one of the biggest markets I have ever seen. It's a place where the shops on a Keele's block might very well buy their inventory. - I mean, I can't overstate the vastness of what we're walking for 10 minutes and it's just more. Market isn't even really the right word for where we are. It's like a whole shopping district. The designated block for almost any product you can imagine. There are hundreds of tiny storefronts selling just pots and pans in one area. Then a few blocks of just light fixtures and then just textiles. An office and storage space built a few floors up above all that retail. - Can I come here as a regular needing person in shop or is it wholesale retail? What is this? - This is mainly for host. - Who is it? So people come from across different-- - Look at this guy wants to park his scooter. - Yeah, people come across from different part of India. You know, if they want to buy, they say notebooks, they buy a thousand notebooks and then they go back to their own city and then sell that. So that's-- - And they come here for that? - Yeah, because it's cheaper. - That's on Kitsinha, he is our fixer and our occasional translator. We of course paid him for the services, which included some help steering us to one particular section of this month. - This Javiri Wazaar is especially for lots of shops and vendors for who sells jewelries and all sorts of jewelries, gold, silver, artificial jewelries. - After the break then, some of the vendors in Zaviri Bazaar running generational businesses, some of which, and I am not kidding here, go back to the 1700s. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - First though, let's do the numbers. - Down dust rolls up 195, today about 4/10th percent, 51,850, the Nasdaq down 120 points, that is 4/10th percent, 27,245, the S&P 500 down, 4 points less than a 10th percent, 7807. - Some Indian companies whose stock is listed in the United States, how about that? One of the biggies is tech and consulting company Infosys, which has the headquarters address of 44 Infosys Avenue in Bengaluru, that's in Southern India. Shares on the New York Stock Exchange rose 9/10th of 1% on the day. The pharmaceutical concern, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, global HQ is in Hyderabad, about a 12 hour drive east out of Mumbai. Dr. Reddy's makes a lot of generic and over-the-counter med, shares gain nearly 3% on Wall Street. The FAA has warned all U.S. airlines about safety risks after tax on the King College International Report in Riyadh. Delta Airlines was planning to launch its first non-stop flight between Atlanta and Riyadh later this month. It has been, of course, delayed delta down 2.5% on the day United lost to 2.8% bond market. As I said, it was closed. You're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdal. Nila and I are walking through the very bizarre in Mumbai, with our fixer on kit. All right, I would like to point out, first of all, it is approximately the temperature of the sun. That seems to be a relevant point. We were all sweating after the 10-ish minute walk we had to take because the streets were just too crowded to get anywhere at all in a car. I would say, by the way, it's more dangerous to cross the street here than it was in Vietnam. Here it's just pandemonium. I was out the guy yesterday and he said, we only have one rule, and that's that there are no rules. Yeah, you have to be more instinctive. Oh, good. And I'm the guy who's been here for 48 hours. That's great. And then radio person killed in Mumbai. And you need to be aware of surroundings, like four sides of you. There are scooters waving through the streets, adding to the constant sound of honking, whether you are inside or out, you cannot escape all the honking in Mumbai. Hey, over here. Look out for the truck. Thank you. As I recall, last time we were together overseas, you were pulling me out of the lane of traffic. So, you know, turn about his fair play. When good turn deserves another, right? We have to watch out in these new locations. Oh my Lord, he'd be. We're in Mumbai after having been in Tennessee and Utah and the UK and Vietnam. And here we are, stop number five, on our tour around the world for the age of work. Why are we here? We're chasing youth. We've been chasing it for the story and in life. That's a whole different thing. We've been chasing it for two years now. And it's led us to this final stop in Mumbai, where the workforce is young. And the scale is big. The scale is amazing, and we're going to get to that. Compare this place to Vietnam for me, would you? Yeah, so I would call India Vietnam's little sister. It's about six years behind demographically. But there's a lot of things infrastructure wise that Vietnam had that India does not. But there's a lot of things that Vietnam was striving for that India has had for a very long time. OK. Challenges to the United economy. Go. Infrastructure? Yep. Equality? Yep. Any quality? Yeah. When it comes to a workforce, when you have the top 25%, and I'm not saying that ratio is exact, so please don't take me that early, but the top of the workforce, highly skilled, highly educated, and growing in wealth. And then you have the bottom 50% still struggling to make that leap because of the way India's economy developed. And what's interesting is the Indian economy is growing at like seven-ish percent a year, right? It's the fastest-growing big economy in the world. And it's growing with its own playbook. It's not replicating any other country's development path, and that's what makes it so special. It's a scooter. Special. Don't know which way to go. Wow. We finally did find the jewelry shop we were looking for. Official opening time was 11 a.m. at 11.15, still shut tight. So we killed some time. OK. Can you ask this guy what he's doing, or if we can talk to him for a minute? Out on the sidewalk, where we'd been waiting, there was a guy in what I can only describe as a tiny metal kiosk, maybe more like a cart. The whole thing went up to about my shoulder. He was sitting criss-cross on a raised platform under a metal roof that keeps him dry when he works through monsoon season, which, yes, he does work through. You can come sit. I can come sit. I will come and sit. What is your name, sir? Can I have a-- You just speak a little bit of English. He had a red velvet tray in his lap where he was beating pearls and other stones into a necklace. How long have you been doing this? When I was in a business, almost 35 years now. How old are you? 35 years. 35? Yeah, that's what I thought. This is the question I ask American businesses all the time. I say, how's business? Are you buying and selling a lot of things? [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] So people come and give him these materials that you see pearls, and his job is to make necklace out of it. Oh, so you're a-- he's a manufacturer. You're a manufacturer, not a reason. Yeah. So they bring you the materials. You then sell it back to them. What is your profit? [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] So it depends on the kind of design someone requests him. So it depends. It can range around 300 rupees to 500 rupees, which is roughly $3 to $5, right? Give it to-- $3 to $5, yeah. For-- for-- for peace. That's not bad. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] He takes about one hour to two hours for him to make one piece. And how many hours a day do you work? [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] 12 hours a day. Seven days a week, or do you take a day off? [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Seven days. You speak-- you speak a little English. You know your numbers. So 12 hours a day takes you about two hours to make a piece. It makes six a day. That's 300 to 500 times six is like $18 to $30 a day. Give it to me. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Depends if he has more orders, he can earn even more than that. But depends on how many orders he receives. This guy's sitting next to you. Is he your competition? [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] It's-- he's a brother. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] So it's a family business. The entire line that you see are mostly his relatives. Oh, that's so funny. I didn't even see it. There's a whole line of shops just like this. But a car just like this. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] There's about 37 stores like this. Did you learn from your parents? [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] His father used to work here. And how long has your family been doing this? Your parents? [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] About same 35, 40 years. Wow. Amazing. As the brothers went back to work, we made our way into the now open jewelry store. The air conditioned now open jewelry store. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] It's a tiny narrow storefront with mirrors for walls, mannequins, and super intricate gold jewelry displayed basically everywhere. people shop. up here for weddings or gifts for a birthday or when a baby's born. Hello, good to see you. Oh, that's quite a rain. Oh, really sorry, my apologies. Thank you very much. Good to meet you. Hi, I'm Simeon. That's Anil Jain. He's the owner of our Prukraj Jewelers. Just leave it to you in two minutes, sorry. Of course. I'm just fascinated to watch what you're doing. I'm praying to the God, you know? Makes sense, running a business. We all Hindus do this. Of course. We first thank God and then we start our business. He took out two little golden dishes. He put some cotton and some ghee, which is clarified butter inside. He let some incense and then he prayed for four minutes. I'm sorry, I'm through. I'm really sorry. Do not apologize. No, no, no. Now, here comes the business question. All right. Business owners, you say. Yeah. Always pray to the gods before they start for the day. Yes, yes. How's your prayer going? How is business? Business is not bad. Since our prime minister has given us a call that for a year, all the Indians are not supposed to buy gold. That's what he's requested. And people are really following it out. So we have taken a hit of around 50-60% of businesses. That's a lot. Yes. But still we are not complaining because country first, you know? Same more about that country first. Because the currency is getting devalued. And because of that effect, all the things are getting expensive. The reason is probably no surprise. The Iran War. And then the energy shock. India is the world's third-largest importer of crude oil. How long have you been here? I'm here from the last 35 years. Is it a family business or did you buy this? Yes, legacy. And he's my son. I was just going to say, where's the next generation? There he is. All right. You will keep up the legacy. Well, now you have to come here so we can talk to you. Come here. He's a little shy. We'll break about of that. Don't worry about that. Tell us who you are. I'm the Shang Zhen. I will get out of Bukharnaj. Do you like this? Yes. How old are you? I'm 24 and I'm 24. What would you be doing if you weren't here with your dad? I actually was doing something. I'm doing my father gave me a reality check and asked me to come here. Tell me about your friends. The other 24-year-olds in this economy. What is their economic mood? Right now everybody, all we talk about is, you know, how to save money when we go out. All right. And what are they doing? What are their jobs? Are they in gold? No, I have one of the vendors in gold from the same group. But others are trade ones, web designer. Another one's an investment risk analyzer. What were you doing before you came to work for your dad here? I started a custom T-shirt printing company with my friend. And we've been there for a couple of years. Until, a Neil gave him that reality check. And now the Shanks got some ideas for how to grow the family jewelry store. If you think about your aspirations for your son in this business, what would you like to see him do after you've retired and your enjoying life? Where would you like him to take this business forward? Expand, you know, expand whatever capability he has. He has to work at the most capacity and expand to his best ability. And in India, we don't retire. We only die. Yeah. Better than you, right? Oh, I'm sad. I'm sad that. We are constantly on the move. Our journey through this economy that is constantly on the move continues tomorrow. We're going to visit a company who's working without question, no, even if you don't know it. This final note on the way out today. One more thing from Achille Topia, Neil and I were talking to him earlier in the program in his family's apartment. He is a video game guy, as we said. Turns out he is working on a new game. He and his colleagues are looking for funding in the hopes that it will turn into a steady gig. So what's the new game? Well, I can't go into a lot of detail about it, but it is the general idea is we want to bring back the nostalgia of the 80s. And by what that, what I mean is sort of the. Frogger? Yeah, no, no, no, no. What's the nostalgia for the 80s? Well, you can tell me this is like, yes, and I think you're the target audience for this game as well. As likely the first generation that grew up playing video games. As Neil has said, we were in Mumbai chasing youth and got hit with nostalgia for the 1980s. Amir Babawi and Katelyn H. John Gordon and Noya Karr, Steve Mullis and Stephanie Seek are the marketplace editing staff. Kelly Sovera is the news director. And I'm Kai Risdall, we will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is APM.