"Impeach Hegseth"

This week on Today Explained from Box, we're going to talk about some of the biggest losers from last week's midterm elections. Tomorrow, artificial intelligence, but today, the war in Iran. It was JD Vance who was first out of the White House gate waving a figurative white flag that said, "Our bad." But recently lost is the war. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so. Do it was a worthwhile cost to pay, agree or disagree, that's at least honest, but everyone knows why we lost, and any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. Ouch, JD throwing his boss under the bus, but then the president basically agreed. It seems to be a dislike for Israel, so you have that, you have the word self, you have the guest prices, and I think those are the primary reasons. Now the calls for impeaching Pete Hegseth are growing, and we're going to talk about where this leaves us and the war on the show. 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Dan Lamath on the National Security Reporter at the Washington Post. What are the vibes in the Pentagon and Washington DC? Did the Iran War lose Republicans these midterms? I don't think it is the only deciding factor, but I think it is a significant factor in two ways. One, there is a group of Republicans who voted for Donald Trump because he said they would -- he would not get us into any more protracted wars. It's eight months and counting. Well, I haven't had much of a war, I was thinking about it. There seems to be no easy off-ramps even now. We're not really fully at war, we're certainly not at peace. As a result, the second issue, affordability, cost of living, a significant deciding factor in that is the price of gasoline, which then affects the price of groceries and everything else. There is a direct line between the war and a lot of the issues, I think, that were a factor for him. A lot of Democrats have been saying they want to impeach Pete Hegseth if they take control. Now they will. Future speaker Hakeem Jeffries came out this weekend and said that he's into the idea. Remind us why Hegseth? I think there are a couple things going on one. You're likely to see him impeach me vote this week. The Thomas Massey led effort to impeach specifically on the war. If you're looking over at the administrative branch and trying to give an award for the person who's racked up the most illegal and unconstitutional act, there's one clear winner. It's Peter Bryan Hegseth. There are a lot of angry Democrats, obviously, but there are a number of Republicans likely to cross the aisle on this. It may very well pass the House. I don't know if it's going to pass the Senate. That seems like a much bigger leap. But either way, you've got kind of a on-the-record rebuke and you also have a forcing function to get every single member either on the record voting for it or on the record that they avoided voting for it. Impeaching Peter Bryan Hegseth, Secretary of Defense for High Crimes and Misdemeanors. So that's going to be a messy situation right now, very soon, within a couple days. What are the actual grounds for impeachment of Hegseth? I mean, is it his brash style, his hatred of trans-service members, his love of testosterone? What exactly crosses into impeachment? Yeah. I mean, I think on the Iran issue, it's a little more complicated because you can think the policy of going into war, whether Iran is problematic, detrimental to the national security of the country based on the amount of munitions we're using a variety of things. There's not necessarily anything straight up illegal in that. Where they think they're going to dig in is on Iran. They're going to say, "This went longer than you're allowed without having any kind of authorization." Four weeks, two weeks, six weeks. It could move up. It could move back. You can go to some sort of conflict, but when you stain it too long and they'll try to get Secretary Hegseth with that on the Iran War. When we get into the new year, that's no longer just an Iran war full issue. They can look into multiple issues. So I think you're likely to see things like boat strikes, where you had all those air strikes on boats in the Caribbean and kind of off the coast, South America, whether that was basically extra judicial, really look into the ability of that sort of strike. So you want to try to traffic drugs? It's a new day. It's a different day. And so those 11 drug traffickers are no longer with us, sending a very clear signal that this is an activity. The United States is not going to tolerate. Firing is a general's without any explanation. 20% reduction across the board. Now the media calls that a purge. I call it accountability and long overdue. The sort of the culture war issues that Secretary Hegseth has raised repeatedly. No more identity months, DEI offices, dudes, and dresses. No more climate change worship. There are a lot of things that they can kind of dig in on hard to say exactly what grounds they're going to have ultimately settle on, but in that case, you're going to have a significant majority in both chambers, and it becomes a lot more dicey. Hegseth appears to be kicking off some sort of PR campaign in defense of his tenure. Stand. Fight. Defend the Republic. Insert picture of Hegseth gazing at Stephen Miller. We're more determined than ever, more resolute than ever to finish what we have started. Is that just for the president, or is that for Congress as well? I think it's primarily for the president. I mean, a lot of the interviews I've done over the last week, it's like this is meant for an audience of one. But I do think there is a secondary audience of members on the Hill. Republicans on the Hill in particular who are kind of not sure how to handle this going forward. But I think foremost, this was meant for the president, it was a very Trump-esque in terms of its feel. I had a defiance to it. It had a grievance in it, and it had the feel of they're coming after me, and I'm not going anywhere. Don't blink. Ignore the noise. Never hesitate. I initially was like this feels like that scene in Wolf or Wall Street where Leo DiCaprio says, "I'm not leaving." And then within a day, I mean, I guess I should have seen it coming. The White House put out a video with a series of clips, and sure enough, that was one of the clips. So that's the vibe. And I think even last week when we saw Susie Wiles get pushed out at the White House as president Trump's chief of staff, Stephen Miller, much closer with Hegseth, and he saw messaging from both sides, both the Pentagon and the White House, basically making the point that Hegseth continues to enjoy the support of both Stephen Miller and Donald Trump. And I think we're all left wondering, does that continue into the new year with democratic majorities in both chambers of the Congress at that point? How does it feel inside the Pentagon right now, Dan? I mean, what is the state of the war at this point? I think there's exhaustion. And I think the military, not unlike some of the other earlier wars that we've covered, you go in with good intentions, you go in with a goal. There's markers up on the board, there's a campaign plan. And then at some point when it starts to go wrong, you can explain away some of the earlier problems. But the challenge is, over time, when you say, hey, we won back in April. And yet, you still have vessels getting hit all the time. The straight on her moves. They say it's open. There are still vessels getting through, but it's under duress. There's still missile fire coming at a lot of vessels. This is not easy. It's not going normally. Everything is a drain. There has been an increasing finger pointing within the government, within the military, where people say, hey, headset is a participant in this, he's a player in this. Why is there not more discussion of whether or not the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Dan Game. or the top admiral at US Central Command, Brad Cooper, basically political figures are pointing to them saying it's their fault. There is at least a discussion of whether or not the president got the information he should have got, whether or not there was some gilding of the lily there in terms of what the US military could effectively do. And I think there are military officers there who are kind of caught in the middle. Do you gussie it up on the front end or leave out some of the information to little difficult for the president to digest in the first weeks of the war? And is that a factor in where we are now? - Is anyone seriously talking about just ending this very unpopular Clagmire situation of a war we've gotten around? - Yeah, certainly people are talking about it. And I think the how you get there is the challenge in it. I think when you're looking at things like whether or not to strike again, are we talking one big night, couple days, most of the people I'm talking to who are tracking this issue that are still in government say they can't do this for weeks on it. So this is not going to be a return to what we saw in March and April. There are people telling the president quit now declare victory and get out. There are people telling the president, do these handful of things, then declare victory and get out. And there are other people to say keep going. Who wins that argument? I think it remains to be seen. And that's one of the reasons that you had the election landslide you had. And because now you're going to have pressure from the Congress in a way you simply have not for the last two years. Israel also just had an election. This is also Israel's war. So Israel when we're back. Sport fatigue when comes from found. It's called running a small business for a reason because you're constantly running around trying to get everything done. Invoices receipts multiple systems preparing for tax season. It's exhausting. Found can help, found provides business banking with built in software to handle your bookkeeping, invoicing contractor payments so much more. With found you can manage contractor payments directly for no additional monthly fee. Found can keep track of W-9s and you can require contractors to fill out W-9s before they get paid. So you don't end up casing tax forms at the end of the year. And you can automatically set aside a portion of your income for taxes to make sure you're not surprised when April 15th rolls around. 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Plus, you can access the Vanta agent everywhere you work, whether your team is in Vanta every day or living in tools like cloth or cursor. You can join the more than 16,000 fast growing companies like Ramp, Writer and Harvey, who save time and resources while scaling fast with Vanta. Learn more at vanta.com/explained. This is today explained. Ben Samuel is hired to U.S. Bureau Chief. Okay, Ben, the president says a lot of things. One of the things he has said is that he wants to phase out about $4 billion in aid that the United States sends to Israel every year. Israel's our number one, we give them more than anybody else. And they no longer need it. We've been doing it for years. I've been doing it. But Israel is a very thriving country that are needed. Before we talk about the likelihood of that actually happening, help us understand what Israel does with $4 billion that we send them every year. The 10 year, $3.8 billion aid package that was negotiated under President Obama, it expires at the end of 2028. That has been the sort of circle date on the calendar. That both parties have really been sort of waiting for it to come. And BB understands as well as anyone where the political winds are blowing in America. His vision to sort of offset that political goal is to create a new form of military systems where it is done through more private business contracts that are done through the Pentagon, rather than through traditional forms of military aid that is overseen by Congress and it's done through the State Department and has much more sort of oversight and guardrails around it. So he has the ability to kind of throw a bone to the sort of right wing isolationist crowd and say, you know what, we're going to stand on our own to feet. We are an independent party right now. We are sort of relying on the good graces of America to fight our wars for us. A bit, I know when it's done. We are Athens and Sparta, but we're going to be Athens and Super Sparta. There's no choice. In the coming years at least, we will have to deal with these attempts to isolate us. But in reality, it deepens the US-Israel relationship. So Trump kind of gets to throw a bone to people and it was very much not a coincidence that it was done on election day where he said this because he understands where Republican voters are and this as well. So, you know, I think a lot of the conversation has sort of missed the point. But I think what you're going to see now with this new incumbent Congress is that Republicans only have a few weeks left to really get this in motion. It's really sort of integrate this. And you know, because when this new democratic Congress comes in, they're not going to be able to do that. So you're saying that while some people may hear Trump say something like that, like we're going to cut off his relayed on election night and think like, oh, he's had a change of heart. It's actually something that Nanyahu wants. 100% and, you know, I think Trump understands that. You know, I think Trump understands that. You know, for so long, people have been waiting for this other shooted drop in terms of, Trump is finally going to lose it with BB. Trump is finally going to say enough is enough. And then they launch and you're on war together. Then Trump says that, you know, we're going to, you know, I remember the first visit that when BB came to DC after Trump was sworn in as president, this current administration. And everyone was like, you know what, this is the beginning of the America First Presidency. New Sheriff in town, Trump is going to actually say, you know, BB, you can't pull this anymore. And then he says he's going to buy Gaza. And he says the US is going to take it over. And we're going to run it very properly. And eventually we'll have economic development in a very large scale, maybe the largest scale on that site. - BB says best friend. And yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And then recently out of the Israeli election, Trump became the first president ever to endorse a sitting Israeli prime minister and like involve the United States in domestic Israeli politics. You know, it's to fight every bit of precedent. So, you know, I think now that Republicans lost the midterms really decisively. And Trump is starting to see the writing on the wall that, you know, BB's time may be up. And that is the first window that really emerges where maybe Trump finally starts to create some distance between him and Netanyahu. - Is there a chance though that this Republican Congress in its remaining whatever five, six weeks in office rejects a new deal with Netanyahu, a new Israel aid deal and that Trump sort of has to face the music of the Democratic leadership in 2027. there's a chance. I mean, I think the date that we have to look out for is December 11th, where we'll see what the funding actually looks like and whether or not that legislation is actually going to be written in a way that says, you know what? We are going to formally use this as the beginning of the rest of our lives in terms of what foreign aid looks like. As of now, Congress is still the one that decides this and Congress has until the end of next year to actually go as things have been agreed upon. You know, it is a formalized agreement between the two countries. But, you know, I think it is very clear. It's about Republicans in Congress who still are very pro-Nazi now in a way that the rest of the Republican Party is kind of shifting away from. They are looking to throw Nazi out of the bone. And this is going to be the last time probably ever that there is such a pro-Israel majority in Congress that it's just willing to offer blanket unconditioned support. You know, that is going to change come January when this New Democratic Congress comes in. If slash when Republicans take the majority again, the Republican Party looking forward is going to be very different than the Republican Party that as it's constituted right now. Considering all the problems he has at home, how important is inking a deal with the United States on the future of US Israel aid to Netanyahu right now? It's extremely important because so much of Netanyahu's domestic political persona is that he is the only person that has the ability, whether it's the political ability, the linguistic ability, the force of personality to actually manage the US-Israel relationship and to keep the United States as its sole defender in the international arena. You know, I think Israelis understand the diplomatic isolation that has come under Netanyahu. I think Israeli society in general maybe doesn't fully understand why that diplomatic isolation has come or they haven't really fully come to terms with Israel's own complicity and Israel's own responsibility in that. But you know, Netanyahu's whole person, his whole stick, his whole election campaign was that without him, then Donald Trump is not going to offer unconditional support and that if Netanyahu is on power then here comes the avalanche of international pressure coming on Israel. Okay, let's talk about his election now. So is Netanyahu about to finally get the boot in Israel? You know, I think the numbers are there, you know, I think it is worth noting that even though his coalition got the boot, there is still roughly half of Israeli society that sought everything that happened over the past four years, that saw the security failures that led to October 7th, that saw the Gaza war, that saw Israel's unprecedented diplomatic isolation, that saw the brain drain happening in Israeli society because of this, and they still said, "You know what? I want more of this. This is working for me." Still, 67 of the 120 seats in the Knesset are going to be allocated toward non-BB parties. Just yesterday, on Sunday, Gadi Eisenklaude, who's Netanyahu's chief rival, was given the window to actually form a government coalition and Netanyahu is slated to be head of the opposition right now. I mean, if the coalition manages to form a government, then Netanyahu will lead the opposition from inside the Knesset, and he will do whatever he can to pick off sort of the back benches in the opposition and try to whittle away this sort of, you know, very tenuous governing coalition that stands to emerge, and we'll probably see a dissolution of government sooner rather than later, but Netanyahu is not going anywhere. He is a political animal. He understands how to play the game better than anyone ever has. What about President Trump? I mean, obviously, if the United States has a love-hate relationship with Netanyahu, Trump's on the love side of things, does Trump have any relationship whatsoever with the opposition? You know, Gadi Eisenklaude very smartly didn't interview in the New York post saying that Trump is brilliant and a genius, because this is how you get in Trump's ear. I very much agree with Trump's approach of peace through strength. Trump's decision to strike Iran together with Israel exceeded anything one could have imagined. That military campaign and the operation were courageous. You know, you flatter Zigo. You talk about all of the things that he does great and all the reasons that he is great, and that's enough. You know, you don't need to commit to taking any sort of diplomatic steps toward the Palestinians or committing to the board of peace and Gaza and the 20-point peace plan, even though obviously he wants to see that. But if you just manage to get on his good side, then that's enough. And, you know, he mentioned yesterday, for the first time, Gadi Eisenklaude by name, and he said, "I've already said nice things about me, so we'll see how it goes." And that's the first time that he's really indicated that, you know, maybe there is life after baby. And at the end of the day, Trump is a transactional person. You know, you can be his best friend for years and years. You can be his most prominent diplomatic ally. When your relevancy ceases to help him, you're done. You know, there isn't going to be the sort of thing where Trump is going to let baby bring him down. You know, if he's already said, he basically already affirmed what Gadi had said, by the way, which is that a reason that Republicans last so bad in the midterms is because of the Iran war and because of Israel's role in helping bring the United States to that war. So it remains to be seen. I would hesitate to predict Donald Trump's behavior in the future, but I don't think that he's going to have that sort of blanket understanding for Nuts and Gaza moving forward. Read Ben at highwretz.com. That's H-W-A-R-E-T-Z. Earlier Dan, Washington Post, Peter Ballon-Rosen, and Denise Guerra produced Jolly Myers-Gabriel-Donatov, Bridger Dunnigan, David Tattishore and I, Sean Ramisferram, did everything else. Loser A.I. tomorrow, and today, explain. [Music]