Il risiko bancario, dazi: disgelo Cina-Usa? Le borse salgono, cosa sono i buyback - Ep. 287

Welcome to the three factors of May 2, let's start immediately from the latest news that are the results of American societies and then we will move on to the rest, we will face the issue of Italian banks, etc. So I'll be waiting for you soon. I'm Mariangela Pira, journalist of SkyTG24. Three factors and a podcast whose purpose is to tell anyone, even at the cutting edge of oil, what happens in finance, economy and economic geopolitics. In every point, with a clear and simple language, the issues of today's events arise, from energy to inflation, from central banks to government economic programs, from global trade to what, banalmente, happens to our companies and in our daily lives. What can I say? I'm waiting for you! Avostritt has been a week of three menstruations that has seen the main characters, especially the so-called Big Tech, inside those called the Magnifique 7. And I have to say that despite what is happening, a first step that we can do is still positive, because in fact these societies are not behaving badly. This obviously means that despite the dates, imagine what it would be if there were no dates, the situation certainly is not bad for these companies. Of course, however, as you know, there is a basis, above all, on what are the expectations. And so let's go and see what is happening. Amazon, for example, has given results that have beaten the expectations of the market, that is, the usefulness that the company has, is superior to the expectations of the market. But the market in the post-bourse, in the so-called After Hours, in the contracts that happen at the closure of the stock market, has done badly. Because, in fact, there are reasons and they are linked, especially to the cloud division. Amazon, basically, has exceeded the expectations in the first three months, as you have heard. Thanks to a good approach of some divisions, especially the one called AWS, it is an operational usefulness in the growth of 20% over the course of the year. However, the predictions for the second three months, as also underlined Gamma Capital Market, are lower than the expectations of the market, mainly because of uncertainties linked to dates, and a macroeconomic context that seems a bit weaker. The financial director said that investments in capital for 2025 could exceed 100 billion dollars, with a focus on the infrastructure of artificial intelligence, and precisely on the AWS division. Because these investments are very aggressive, they are of a very important entity, whether it is an entity aimed at supporting the growth of the future of the group, let's say that investors have asked themselves, "Why are you investing so much?" It is not that you are concerned, and therefore let's say that this strategy of investing so important has raised concerns among investors. This has certainly led to a fall in the after hours, but not only that. In the sense that, in the specific case of the Amazon group, there are also other reasons, and there are issues, let's say, that may not be seen, that are still important, that is, what will happen in front of the dates, in which way you will be, in some way, will bear the consequences of this world of dates. And anyway, as I told you, the Amazon Web Services division, the one I first defined, AWS, is true that it has beaten the market's expectations, but it has grown a step a little slower than what the market was expecting, and therefore the "fatturato", for example, has been used. And the society, also in front of the expectations, has said that, however, the politicians of the dates are concerned, and there are also fears, let's say, of a recession, and this is why it has changed its prospects for future growth. Amazon's administrator, Andy Jesse, has still said that he remains optimistic, and that society could even emerge from this stronger context. Instead, what happened to Apple? The financial results, also from Apple, still beating the market's expectations, have shown some weakness. The Apple services division, for example, which includes offers like advertising, the so-called "high cloud" of Apple, Apple TV, if you've seen some series, everything comes back to the Apple services division, was this division under the market's expectations. This is because it is the most important "fatturato" generator of Apple, out of the iPhone. So, after the iPhone, this is the most important "fatturato" generator. And this, obviously, has led investors, also in this case, to be very cautious. I repeat, Apple has exceeded expectations in the second quarter, with a useful operation, in this case, the society has reached the market's expectations. But, as I told you, this division has, in part, the use of the analysts' expectations. The sales in China have decreased by 2.3% compared to last year. I must say that despite the challenges linked to stocks, competition, Apple managed to maintain solid margins and managed to re-buy shares from 100 billion. On this re-buying of shares, I repeat, 100 billion. What does that mean? It means that the management of the society who manages the society says, "You know what? I re-buy shares from my company." This is very interesting, because a real bazooka has 100 billion dollars. And I must say that these buy-backs start now, why? Because it is not the first case, obviously that of the group, obviously it is not the first Apple to do it. Because the companies, after the Swedish decisions, are so crowded in the stock market and therefore are at prices, let's say, stressed, compared to those of last year, that the management says, "I enjoy the current weakness of the market. I buy and therefore, obviously, this will lead me, how to say, to strengthen myself in my company, taking advantage of buying it in a moment that is a positive moment." I must say that, starting anyway, from Wednesday's day, they are continued by-back, also starting from half a week, it is a situation, I must say, from this point of view, that it brings a change, as I told you, because anyway, all these great companies are, as I told you, doing buy-back operations. And this is obviously considered a visa, for example, and in the credit card sector, buy-back has been done, but there are almost all the high-tech companies, precisely within the Magnifique 7, which operate these buy-back. This is the reason I was telling you about. This, let's say, has been an important week, from another point of view, because there was also the data on the PIL. We have two things to monitor in a week in the United States, as well as the results of the trimestries I told you about. The first thing is the fact that the American domestic product came out, 0.3%, but the analysts explain that there is a reason. And now we will talk about it. The other thing that coincides with what we have seen in Italy is that the prices, let's say, are in the phase of increase. It is always said that the inflationary pressures are in increase. That is, this expensive price is being shown in the United States, for example, in the first trimester, accelerates by another 0.6%, maximum from the first trimester of 2023. This, to give you a perspective, means maximum of two years in this part. You know that the prices were in decline. Obviously, if the prices are rising, it is because there are the first issues due to the policy of taxes, because the decline was on the prices in decline. The price in increase means that the prices of single objects, the prices of food, are increasing. In the United States, specifically this last point, the index we have seen this week, are increasing. Concomitance needs to reflect on this data of the PIL. Why did the PIL come out in the first trimester in the United States? The American economy was quite solid, as we have also seen in the previous podcasts. And it happened because the companies imported so much before Trump, the consumers have spent less than usual and also the government has cut the prices. Do you sell them abroad? So how much do you export? Have they gone bad? While the imports, what you have bought, you probably did a lot before you lost your taxes, and these imports weigh on the PIL's calculation and they weigh negatively, obviously. In practice, if you sum up all the companies, government, families have spent, removing the difference between what you sell and what you import, the total is gone. So much so that as I said, many analysts have noticed this thing, and obviously, that is, as I said, it eliminates the impact of imports. The thing you are afraid to buy and import because you were afraid that you would lose your taxes. The growth has been positive. So, apart from the possibility of an increase of tax cuts, the bags will still look at the strange data of the PIL, obviously. So they will look at what the FED will do and at this strange data of the PIL. In other words, as you know, China for the first time has issued colloquies on taxes and this cannot do good to the U.S. that have grown on the basis of these attacks. So this is very, very interesting because, obviously, it makes us understand how a data, you see it, and it is a data of the PIL, of the stock, of the 0.3%, all of you are concerned but this strange reason, as I told you and I end this parenthesis, this course on importation of goods before tax cuts the increase in importation is thought to have been 41.3%. This has reduced the growth of 4.8%, bringing the PIL to the result of today. So the question I ask is, if this course was not for importation, the growth of the PIL would have been and obviously it would have been positive. I have to tell you something else. There are, let's say, also technical aspects that you have to consider. That is, the S&P and NASDAQ have reached those that are called technical resistances. Be aware. And as if in a graph, you had a roof. When you reach that roof, graphically, you can hit the roof and go up to the sky, or that roof sends you down. This is a so-called resistance. When you reach such a level, which has been reached in time, the graphics show that in time, when you have reached that level, all the titles have gone down. And that's why it's called resistance, because the graphics are seen in time. Now, it is crucial to overcome these levels because otherwise they still go down. Without a central American bank that helps the market, it won't be easy to hit these resistances and, as I said, to give you an example, overcome the roof and go up to the sky. But the Fed, why should it be at this moment to lower the taxes if the prices are growing again? Be very careful to do it. Read this data on the PIL, because it is really due to the importation of people, companies, for sure, on what would have happened and that they were affected and imported before the fallout, because the Fed should be affected to lower the taxes. As you know, to lower the taxes means that the money costs less, there is more money available. And therefore, usually, when this happens, the prices increase because people tend to buy more things, the price of the goods is rising because there is more money available. As you know, no, to lower the taxes, the money costs less, you have more money in your pockets, so you spend more. And therefore, of course, the prices start to rise again, because the Fed didn't tell you to do it. Even if the buybacks are strong, and I remember Apple's one, 100 billion, they didn't tell you to do it anyway. Now, the next week will be very important to understand the direction of the markets. Let me just remind you that the news that see the best and worst of the S&P 500 are the protagonists. Thanks to these results, the technology has done well this week. The communications and the benefits have done well. The sectors related to health have the best basic consumption and materials, perhaps precisely for this import and so on. And the second factor of today, this agreement that has been reached between, and it is very important, obviously, an agreement reached between the United States and Ukraine, on the raw materials, like lithium, like manganese, because Ukraine is lacking in terrarium. It's not strange, so don't ever get confused, they are minerals, they are not terrarium. The Chinese currency, as I told you, is a signal that could lead the stock to grow. For example, the Chinese stocks are in recovery. Trump has also imposed new secondary sanctions and will control the oil. He threatened the exclusion of the American market. Why buy Iranian oil? And so, when this happens, the price of oil that becomes more affordable, because you remove the Iran, so obviously, when there is always the scheme of oil, there will be less, and at least those who bought it already, of course, its price rises. And the price is rising for this. Instead, let me say that, as I told you, surely the most important news that could really be a motor of the day beyond the American economic data, is China. China officially declares to value trade colloquies with the United States. The signal is still timid, but the future was forced by Yuan, behind the Quintas and this slow attempt to get closer after seven weeks of tariff pensions. Beijing sincerely claims to be Washington, while Trump makes sure that they must take the first step, as Bloomberg says, as if everything were part of China. The truth is that we must be honest, intellectually, and part of the United States. According to Bloomberg, China is preparing to negotiate seriously. However, it remains in the hearts of those who will drive the colloquies and with whom it is sent. In the meantime, the American administration has entrusted more power to Marco Rubio, a figure in Beijing, and now also a advisor for the security of Interim. So, Rubio enters the Trump team even stronger. As I told you, the Iran issue is absolutely taken into consideration. Also, attention to the American work market, which is questioning the actual impact of the data. The data leads to very soft data at the moment. And I must say that there is a weakness, especially looking at the so-called soft data. Those, however, called "hard" when you hear "hard data" on the American work market, there are disoccupations and licenses, they still hold. The Facebook of the Fed confirms the attentive approach, but Waller warned the Council of the Fed that a rapid deterioration could turn the race to the cuts of the Fed. Will it be like this or not? We'll see if it will be like this or not. Let me remember, finally, also in this second factor, the specifications. Apple deludes, because they concern China and other services. Amazon has student prospects, despite the margin which is still a record, which is what the society puts at home. Meta, then Facebook, has also raised the budget in the capital account, so it will spend more. Microsoft has excellent results on the whole line. The first one is the "Helai Lele cuts the forecasts" "MacDonalds under the expectations" and then "Estee Lauder in the sector of the makeup, the makeup, the perfumes, the solid results" "Mastercard on expectations" These are some news that come from SwissQuote, from Gamma Capital Market, in the way they have evaluated these results. Finally, let's talk about banks, which is our third factor of today. As I wrote in this week, it is one of the banks of the Game of Thrones saga. It is a real bank risk which has recently been added to this last box. To spread the cards in a world already quite spread, it was at Mediobank, the group of Alberto Nagel published a report on the general bank. The report is of Giotto, you practically say "I, Mediobank, have a general participation, Mediobank, in general insurance, Group of Trieste has 13.10% and says "I give you this participation in exchange for the totality of the general bank group, who gives this participation in exchange for the totality of the general bank that is involved in the general group and which is a very good group. This is an important but we have to start from the context to understand the importance. The context is fundamental because since the 90s so many offers from bank to bank in Italy were never seen. This is the period of the Europa. What are the two most important? One is the credit in front of the BPM bank. This offer is already starting. As you know BPM Bank is more than this offer of an credit. The judge is not advantageous for his shareholders and therefore says "or change the conditions of the offer or withdraw the offer" but one is the credit of BPM Bank in the last conference they held. There is still nothing to know. And then there is the group Montedei Paschi di Siena who has launched an offer in front of the same bank with whom I started this podcast because it is a bank media as you know launched an offer in front of the general banks. Also the shareholders have to laugh. The group Calta Girona and Delfin the strong house of the old and therefore the exotic are shareholders of BPM Bank but they are also shareholders of Montedei Paschi di Siena which points to the scale of the same BPM Bank. So there are two shareholders who want a little shake up the way in which the bank sector was established until today. What do they think Calta Girona and Delfin? In my opinion they believe that general insurance has always been a kind of good way for the bank to tend the lines of a certain bank world elite. They say to us it's not good as general insurance is managing things. We would like to change everything with a our list as it was done in the last assembly but the list that was awarded in assembly of general insurance was that of Mediobanka and it was almost a victory for Mediobanka and for general insurance as to say, our line that of the general insurance women continue. The fact that then back to the news with which I opened this third factor, the fact that Mediobanka launched this offer in front of general banks has scattered a little bit. Among the two partners these two partners that I mentioned before so Calta Girona and precisely the group of the end of the old one, I repeat, shareholders of Mediobanka but also shareholders of Monte dei Paschi, there is not even a same, let's say, vision. It is not said because for example Mileri has been very soft compared to the operation of general banks. But what does this tell us? And it tells us that on the one hand there are those who thought until yesterday that this crossroads of business and participation in which the ring of economic power is the general insurance, that is, if you ask anyone, guys of this world, what are the two real institutions that have always ruled the insurance sector, the good salt, the industrial participation, the finance in Italy, in general, is to be won. For this, the game also smells like politics because, through the Mediobanka scale, it was obvious to many that the last goal was really Trieste. Then in these recent times Rome did not appreciate the marriage that will have between general insurance and the French of Natixis, because here all the issues that the Italian savings in strong general houses ends in the hands of the French. And also to demonstrate this bad content to the last assembly in general, there have been different lists that I mentioned earlier. The list so called "Calta Girone". "Calta Girone" and others conquering Mediobanka, but I remember Montepaschi makes the offer in front of Mediobanka and it is obvious that they would have more taken in the Trieste group. But with the Mediobanka fair, everything has changed. Nagel has been told that the fair is defensive, that is, I am under attack. I, Mediobanka, receive an offer from Montepaschi for this my participation in general and then what do I do? I cut my arm, I give up the participation in general. I give up and put in the bank in general that deals with the management of the savings that will make me grow and with which I see an industrial partnership. Mediobanka is the Queen of Europe and she could never be stopped when she was attacked. She did what she knows how to do better. She is defended on the market. Because Mediobanka, let's remember it, is not a normal bank. It is the lioness of business banks at the active hundreds of acquisitions, corporate finance, obligationary missions, everything that concerns the extraordinary finance but it is very close to the management of the savings of people. So obviously if Nagel wanted to give a joke and change the business of Mediobanka, she is doing it in the so-called wealth management. The management of the savings of the most people and buy the general banks that have excellent results. But if you manage it manages more than 100 billion euros and of course it goes more than well if you bring it to the bank. But let's go back to where we started the bank risk. The account that Mediobanka would give to take the general bank would be divided between the shareholders of this last one and the shareholders of the general insurance company. On June 16 there is the assembly of Mediobanka. The shareholders of Mediobanka will be asked, "Do you want to go by yourself and maybe we will conquer the Montedei Paschi? Or do you agree with this prospect of becoming with the general bank the main pillar of the Italian savings? Other aspect, what will the Montedei Paschi do now? He has an offer in front of Mediobanka. Will he still point to Mediobanka? Knowing that Mediobanka in perspective could no longer participate in general. In general insurance what do you think of all this? Has this been warned? Because insurance and general management and Mediobanka have witnessed the fact that the Mediobanka list was voted and was of support to the management of general insurance at the last assembly. So, between Mediobanka and general insurance there is a good relationship. Mediobanka has warned general insurance of this operation. General insurance, for example, has always believed that general banks, which are in debt, were a jewel. Is he happy to let it go? Or does he want to go away from general banks? Because then it is said that the important thing is to avoid a warm-up. So, when I go away from general banks and take back the Mediobanka list, even if it is also a warm-up with which Mediobanka does not find the list in general. And therefore, general banks continue, however, to go alone. Because the fundamental question is this, look. In general banks will change a lot. Probably the balance we have known so far will change. And all the stocks we are seeing are still part of the stocks of Calta Girona and Compane. So it is obvious that this system, as we have known it, is likely to change. It will not be maybe the best of finance, as we have studied in the years. It will be very different. And it is not said that Monte Paschi still does not want Mediobanka. Because it is true, maybe he will not have General Bank in his possession. But it would still be a great group rich in participation. Because I should not want to. So, how to say, I would not give so much to discount the things. I would be to see what will happen. The other fundamental role will play a credit. A credit that, as you know, and I said within this factor, launched an offer in front of the BPM Bank. And the government, as you know, has put very important palettes to this offer. Among which, for example, a credit must yield in nine months the activities that in Russia, so much so that Castagna and the administrator of the BPM Bank have also done an economic question. He said, but to us of the BPM Bank a credit that will surely have an economic reverb from this excessive activity in Russia as a credit itself has put. So, the role of an interesting credit because in that famous assembly of generals, rich in many lists that wanted to in some way replace the management of women at this time, a credit has not supported the BPM Bank list as everyone else had predicted. And why did he do it? Because he still wanted, according to everyone, to soften this Golden Rule and Golden Power that Rome has put on the offer in front of a credit that acquires the BPM Bank. So, the cards here are different, do you realize that this operation has been triggered? Because even a credit if the BPM Bank will probably do everything to ensure that this operation goes smoothly. And therefore, in this strategy it could be supported by social movements, why not? So, as you can see the situation is very intrigued, we will see some good things, something that in December 2025 the situation of the banks will not be that of today. So, we will continue to monitor everything. In the end, let me close with a thought because I was very impressed of course, I record this podcast on May 2nd and yesterday was May 1st, the day of the work. A day of work that still needs, I have to say, some key things. The party of the work should be to understand that the work is dignity, that it goes to all sides, that it goes respected, that it is sad that this is not the third millennium. This is the truth. And I was very impressed, maybe you read it. The story that was shot during the evening of this gentleman called Giovanni Rinaudo, 48 N. He says, I miss doing a weekend in the mountains with my son, I miss the tranquility, the security. Any unexpected can put me on the frame. Today I feel like a man without dignity and yet I have been working since I was 15 years old. My misfortune is that of being a metal mechanic in Turin in 2025. He is a separate father, Giovanni, with an indefinite contract and returns to that category with the recent one, writes precisely the courier, the one of the poor workers. He does not look for employment for those who take it. He does not make them extraordinary because they miss the commissions. It's impossible to enter the house of integration to get to the end of the month and be forced to count the coins. And yet you know the truth, that in the statistics EASTAT goes back to the group of those who are well, those of the occupied. And he is occupied, but this is an occupation of Ignitosa, I ask. It's hard to get to the end of the month. He writes the courier and returns to his position. In Italy, the stipends have been stopped for 20 years. Working is not synonymous with a life of Ignitosa. As expected from the Constitution, as I have often explained by our president of the Republic and also in the last relationship that he has made on this just before the first month. Many families do not account for the increase in the cost of life and to install enough. See you next week with three factors. Thank you for following me.