Hurricane Isaias Prep, Competitive Midterm Races, Trump's Media Ban In Court

[MUSIC] Communities from Mississippi to Florida are preparing for hurricane ECS. They're preparing for flooding and high winds. How much disruption and damage is the storm expected to cause? I'm Steve Innskeep with Michelle Martin, and this is up first from NPR News. [MUSIC] Democrats are targeting house scene scenarios President Trump won by double digits and Republicans who's spending big money to defend them. What's putting normally save for public and districts in play? A judge temporarily stopped President Trump's attempt to ban news outlets he doesn't like from the White House. That expires today and the judge is hearing new arguments about what to do next. Stay with us, we'll give you news you need to search your day. [MUSIC] Overnight, tropical storm ECS became a hurricane. Forecasters save will make landfall as early as tomorrow night near the Alabama Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. Communities are preparing for high winds and flooding. >> We reach WBHM's Environmental Reporter Laura Linhan in Birmingham. Alabama, good morning, Lauren. >> Good morning. >> So what are the preparations looking like? >> Well, you know, they're used to hurricanes along the Gulf Coast, right? But it's been a pretty quiet hurricane season so far with El Nino in play. So areas from the Mississippi Gulf Coast, all the way to the Florida Panhandle, especially along the coast, have been getting sandbags, boarding up windows, getting supplies from the grocery stores. The stores have been full with people stocking up on those hurricane supplies. They know that hurricane plan. And so for folks who are staying who have not had evacuation orders, they are definitely making those preps right along the coast. But it's also the inland communities. I mean, here in Alabama, the National Weather Service in Birmingham is forecasting two to four inches of rain and some stronger winds inland. So you could see the potential for folks already, what they have been doing, is securing their lawn furniture outside. But it's also October. So folks are having to secure their Halloween inflatables and decorations. But I also spoke with the Birmingham Humane Society. And they've been asking people to donate crates because they are trying to evacuate their shelters ahead of the storm coming in. So they have room for animals to come up from the coastal shelters. Seems like there's a little bit of uncertainty about what the path might be. So what about events this weekend? What are people planning to do if they have big events planned? Yeah, you know, down here in the deep south, a big concern is going to be football. So we have already seen some high school football games being rescheduled to either earlier in the day on Friday or even tonight. And then we also have that potential for Saturday. There is a big SEC football game in Tuscaloosa, the Alabama versus Georgia matchup. And President Trump is actually scheduled to attend. But he said yesterday that he is playing everything by ear based on what happens with ESIES. So as of right now, kickoff is still set for Saturday night at 6.30 p.m. Central time. And so what University of Alabama is doing is they're just continuing to monitor the storm. If it keeps that forward momentum, the worst impacts from the storm would be happening in the morning. OK, what about oil refineries along the coast and platforms in the Gulf? Right. So we've seen some reports from the Marine Minerals administration saying that as of Wednesday, nonessential personnel have been evacuated off eight production platforms. And that's roughly 2% of the man platforms in the Gulf. And roughly 19% of oil rigs have been evacuated. Now this isn't anything unusual. Anytime you have a tropical system in the Gulf, especially during hurricane season, this is the procedure they will follow. But of course, there is a question going forward. OK, as ESIES moves through the Gulf, could we see an impact on oil prices if the storm gets really bad? And before we let you go, what are you hearing from state officials? Well, we have been seeing several governors declare states of emergencies. And this is just basically so they can free up resources and stage equipment along the Gulf. So they're going to be coordinating with shelters and sending out warnings as needed to the communities. And what I've seen is just really encouraging folks to be ready and pay attention to that forecast. Even now, with a being less than 48 hours out from ESIES making the landfall, there's still that potential for the forecast to change. And any little shift in the track or intensity can make a big difference on who will see impacts as we're less than 48 hours out for landfall. That's Laura Linahan with WBHM in Birmingham. Lauren, thank you. And thank you all. There are 435 seats in the US House, only a small number of them ever end up being competitive. This year, though, both parties are trying to expand the map. Here's how an aggressive redistricting push changed the boundary lines for about 10% of Americans since the last election. And on popular Republican agenda in Washington is shifted perceptions of which lawmakers may be vulnerable. Also, parties and donors are spending hundreds of millions of dollars. And PR political correspondent Stephen Fowler has been crunching the numbers. And he's with us now to talk about the state of play for the House. Good morning, Stephen. Good morning. So the Koch Political Report lists 43 house races that's 1 in 10 as competitive. What types of districts are we talking about? You've got places that were super close in 2024 that you would reasonably expect to be close again, like the handful of districts that say voted for Trump and a Democratic House rep or vice versa. There's districts like iOS First Congressional District, where the Republican won by about 800 votes in 2024, and California's 13th District decided by fewer than 200 votes. Michelle, all that happened in a very different political environment than now, where you got an unpopular president, the midterm backlash, rising prices, a ton of anti-incomeancy vibes from voters. So that's why you're seeing a whole lot more places on the board. So we mentioned redistricting, where are the parties starting with the Republicans, gerrymandered boundary lines to make it easier for them to win, and then of course the Democrats responded. Did that take races off the board? You might think so, but the level of impopularity we're talking about, especially among Latino voters that back Trump in 2024, it runs a risk of some of these new Republican drawn lines ending up still electing Democrats, what's known as a dummy-mander, strategists in both parties I've talked to say, to watch Texas and Florida in particular for that one. What else are Democrats and Republicans saying about the scope and scale of what they think is competitive? Both parties have their target list of incumbents they want to defend and seats that they want to pick up. Between the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, there are 93 districts I counted on their target lists. Unsurprisingly, most of them on the Democratic side. About half of them are these red-to-blue districts that they flag that they hope to flip. Republicans have their own MAGA majority of nominees in open races or challenging vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Notable though, on average, Trump won this batch of districts by about 8% in 2024, which just highlights how deep into conservative areas these competitive races have moved. But how much of those lists is actually about winning the district just versus fundraising and branding? You know that's saying money talks? Well, some of these districts on the list have seen basically no money and no ads from either party, but you've got places like Kentucky Sixth District and Arkansas's second district where Trump won by 15% that are seeing six and seven figure sums from Republicans trying to defend things. According to ballot-pedia tracking, these target lists usually only win about one in three times, but also there's so much money involved. Ad impact data says there's still a half billion dollars in ads coming between now and election day just in the house. So for both sides, it's like throwing a 50-pound Costco-sized box of spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. That's some image there. That is NVR Steven Fowler. Steven, thank you. Thank you. Three major news organizations are confronting the Trump administration in federal court today over the president's efforts to ban their reporters from the White House. CNN, MSNOW, and Politico say that's a violation of their constitutional rights. NPR media correspondent David Folk and conflict is covering the lawsuit and he's with us now. Good morning, David. Good morning, Michelle. So where do things currently stand? So in mid-September, President Trump did something he sort of kind of talked about doing for a long time. He banned reporters from those three outlets. He post-on-truth social. He talked about it publicly. Here's a clip of what he had to say on that day. There's something wrong with a country that can allow people to write purposely negotiations. Now, if they want to write them, that's fine, but I don't have to let them into my, into the people's house. In relatively short-order, Michelle, the news outlets filed a lawsuit here in federal court in DC and a judge instituted what's called temporary restraining order saying, hey, you can't do that for now while I get have a little time to think about these issues. But there have been points along the way in the week since where the White House has flouted the order or done things that seem inconsistent. It's turned into a rollercoaster, for example, for CNN, which has part of this pool of five major networks that aren't just showing up at the White House to cover the president, but actually get to cover him and tape it and share that footage with news outlets across the country. They bear the logistical obligations, but also bear the cost of doing that, and so they share it. And At times CNN has not been allowed to be in the pool at times it has and most recently CNN has been allowed but hasn't been allowed into these smaller spaces like Air Force One. And what are the news organizations arguing? Well, the news outlets arguing the White House is trying to demonstrate that it is the right to decide where win and how they can cover the president at any given moment, pretty much on a whim. And they say that's a violation of their first amendment rights that is their free speech rights. It is true that the president and the White House doesn't allow have to allow anybody on the grounds and give them credentials. Once they do, they can't withdraw them because they don't like the speech. That's the argument. And it seems to be pretty settled law in cases including a few in Trump's first term. And also they're arguing this violation of their fifth amendment rights that is the president didn't warn them ahead of time that he was going to do this didn't give them a process to appeal. That's called due process. And given all that, what is the White House saying about this? What's their argument other than that the president doesn't like these people? Well, they've said that these news outlets are publishing things that are untrue fake news in the term of the president, but also there's invoking now national security concerns. They're pointing to such coverage as questions of what is in the bunker area below the new renovated ballroom in the east wing of the White House. They say that's a national security question. They say that MSNOW's coverage disclosing that there's a leak investigation into a story that was embarrassing for FBI director Cash Patel, that is and other such things. And so they're saying national security and they're saying the executive sort of essentially outweighs the courts and a judge on this. And it's saying, look, we have had some court cases including at least preliminary ruling in the case involving the Associated Press in which we are allowed to prevent people from being able to go into smaller spaces like the Oval Office or Air Force One. So it's asking the judge to essentially dismiss all of this. It's saying we have the right to do what we want. And how do you anticipate that this will be resolved? Well, today is the day in which this temporary restraining order will dissipate. So the judge is going to have to decide soon whether he offers this preliminary injunction saying you can't do it anymore or whether he sets this for trial and says let's hold things in advance. That is. MPR META correspondent David Fulkins, like David, thank you. You bet. As you start your day to day, a reminder that sometimes the stories NPR covers are about the work we and so many other journalists do. Press Freedom is a topic we're following closely and NPR, we believe a free press is a right for you, the public. We are committed to holding power to account and bringing you news you need without fear or a favor. As you're the engine behind this work, you make it possible. You contribute to your local station and they keep reporters in the field, ensuring that public media is here to stay. The power to decide what's next for public media is yours, head to donate.NPR.org and thank you. Yeah, thanks. And that's up first for Thursday, October 8th. I'm Michelle Martin. I'm Steve Innscape, today's up first was edited by Susanna Capeludo, Megan Pratt, Emily Cobb, Muhammad El Bardici, and Alice Wolfley, who is produced by Ziat Butch and NeoDemos and our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott and our technical director is Carly Strange, our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens, a journalist tomorrow. [MUSIC]