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Welcome to Office Hours of Prop G. This is the part of the show where we answer your
questions about business, pick tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind.
If you'd like to submit a question for next time, you can send a voice recording to officehoursofpropgmedia.com.
Again, that's officehoursofpropgmedia.com or post your question on the Scott Galloway
subreddit and we just might feature it in our next episode.
First question.
G. Franco calling in for Madrid, Spain.
I'd love to get your take on the humanoid robotics market.
There's been a lot of movement lately.
Tesla pushing with Optimus and VC sporing money into players like Figure AI and Unitree
in China.
The technology seems to be advancing fast with AI, but what do you think it'll take
for humanoid to move from controlled environments into truly production-ready autonomous tech?
And do you see this becoming a real business within the decade or more like another moonshot
like autonomous vehicles?
Huge fan of you and all the ProVG shows.
Thanks for all you do.
Morgan Stanley projects this could be a $5 trillion market by 2050 with roughly one
billion humanoid units in use.
In other words, that's some saying they have no fucking idea.
By 2050, we could collide into Pluto.
I love these things that are like in 20 years, it could be a $1 trillion.
I mean, the analyst writing that is going to be dead probably in 20 years, so who cares?
They see adoption ramping up slowly until the mid 2030s and accelerating as costs fall
on AI capabilities catch up.
Goldman is more conservative.
They estimate the humanoid market will reach $38 billion by 2035 with roughly 1.4 million
robots shipped once hardware costs decline about 40%.
For context, there are already more than 4.5 million industrial robots operating today
and that base grew 9% last year, so the broad automation trend line is strong.
Component makers are also gearing up.
ID TechX expects a 14x expansion in humanoid parts and sensors within the decade, roughly
a $10 billion market just for the guts of these machines.
On the funding side, venture money is also pouring in.
China's taking the lead here.
Unitry's low price models and government-backed manufacturing giving an edge over U.S. rivals
at least for now.
And then with respect to Tesla and their optimists, Musk has said that Tesla could start selling
optimists by the end of 2025, even talking about thousands of units next year.
And some, he's full of shit.
I don't even know he's full of shit.
I know he's not full of shit here.
I don't think he's ever talking.
When we supposed to have a million autonomous taxis by like 2021 or 2018, Elon Musk is engaging
in this ultimate weapon of mass distraction.
Don't look at the fact that I have the most valuable automobile company in the world and
yet my automobile company is declining, is eroding revenues faster than any automobile
company in the world.
And I'm getting my lunch eaten by everybody, including BYD, which produces a Tesla-like
vehicle at about 40% of the price.
So I'm going to do all these jazz hands and say, "Look over here, robots, Robovin, XAI.
Look anywhere."
But at the fact I'm wrapping steel around an engine or a battery and I'm trading and
I'm worth more than every automobile company in the world, which makes no fucking sense.
So he's trying to say anything to give people the illusion of distraction that it'll be
something else.
Anyways, back to robots.
Most analysts expect real commercial traction before 2035, primarily in warehouses, logistics
and manufacturing, but not in our living rooms.
The trillion-dollar promise is still decades out.
Within the next 10 years, we'll likely see humanoids doing repetitive labor instruction
environments.
My viewpoint on this, as somebody who doesn't know the space very well, is the following.
I think in B2B, it's going to exceed expectations.
I think in B2C, it's going to fall well short of expectations.
I don't think people want, I don't like having a nanny in my house.
I just don't.
And the idea of a robot having any sort of context or nuance to go get me my tea and
cookies, maybe, I don't know.
But if you look at these data centers, if you look at some of the factories, the forward
advanced manufacturing factories in China, they say they don't even need to turn the
lights on because there's no humans in them.
So I think roaming around the house, I don't know, maybe they'll take your dog for a walk.
I don't know.
Maybe those things that deliver your food, I don't think it's going to work.
I think there's going to be a lot of military applications.
They're going to be fucking frightening in space age, but they'll be very effective.
But the idea that we're going to have robots walking our dogs and hanging out with us and
bringing us our dinner, yeah, I just don't.
I don't think so.
Anyways, that's my view.
Question number two.
Hey, Propg, I'm 20 years old, living in Vancouver, Canada, and I'm currently three quarters of
the way through an electrical apprenticeship.
Because the trades pay so well, about a year and a half ago, I was able to buy a condo
and utilize it as an investment property.
Currently, I'm in the process of starting my own electrical company while I'm still
an apprentice so I can be up and running and ready for business when I finally get my license
in about a year.
Do you have any tips on how to run a services driven business and how to differentiate from
all the other businesses that are around?
Additionally, what advice do you have for a young entrepreneur slash landlord who doesn't
want his 20s to pass him by by growing up too early?
It's worth noting that although I don't drink or do drugs, I took the money that I would
have spent on nights out partying and bought a speedboat with it.
Thank you for all the content you put out, Conor from Canada.
I like the speedboat part.
Okay.
The point of demonstration between a product business or a product based or a manufacturing
based business we have a physical thing you can touch in a services based business is
one word, relationships.
I have run services based businesses my whole life.
I started a strategy firm when I was 26 called Profit and the last firm I sold was a firm
called L2, which was basically another, we called it business intelligence, which is
just a fancy word for strategy.
Those companies are based on relationships and the reason why Profit did well was I had
a strong relationship with the CEOs of the CMOs of Levi's, William Sonoma, Dreyer's.
These were my first clients and it was sort of everything.
Because there's a lot of good firms out there doing good work, but they want to work with
people that they like, they feel, my advantage was I was 26 and I developed sort of these
proxy big brother, little brother, father, son relationships with people who wanted to
help me and like me and thought I was smart and you have to do good work.
That's table stakes, but then it's all about relationships and it's no accident than the
advertising and the consulting business.
The people tend to be very good looking and very charming.
The first thing is you have to be very social, get out there and have the ability to establish
relationships with clients in the services industry.
That's just kind of everything.
The second is a product based company is about obviously people and engineers, but it's a
lot about your IP and distribution and capital raise.
Services business is really the team of the best players wins.
Because the head of a services company, you are constantly thinking about recruiting and
that is you meet someone who's smart and good.
What do you do?
Would you be interested in coming to work with me?
And then if you are fortunate enough, if you get your first six or 10 people, if there's
two or three, hopefully that are really good, you give them one, three, five, 10% of the
company and you say, you're a partner in this business now and I need you to do really well.
But I made sure that all of these people felt like they were owners in the business because
if you're fortunate to find someone who's really good, that's everything because their
ability to really wow the client and build strong relationships is everything.
So one, you have to be very good at establishing relationships and spending a lot of time fostering
those relationships.
Two, you really do need to think a lot about finding that initial team of really outstanding
people.
That's what a services company lives and dies on, full stop.
And then what else would I say about the services business?
I'll give you the upsides.
It doesn't take a lot of capital.
You make good money.
It's an incredible training.
I'll give you the downsides.
It's really tough on your relationships.
It's very demanding.
It is hard to make money in your sleep.
I used to get on when I was running profit.
I used to get on, Audi was like one of our biggest clients.
He was playing from fucking San Francisco to Munich and then get in a car and drive to
Ingolstadt, which is the armpit of central Europe and then do a meeting the next day and
try and convince them that the Audi brand identity should be the modern art of motion.
I came up with that and I thought it was great and then they would tell me there's no real
word for modern art or motion in German and I have to fly back and say, I'm just going
to hit the drawing board again.
And on the way over, I would literally be in the back of the galley of the coach section
because it was my company, we didn't have any money with a bunch of kids trying to pull
together slides and then figure out where the Kinkos was in Munich.
This was, I'm dating myself to go print out.
I mean, it was just so fucking stressful.
Oh God, literally getting hard palpitations, just thinking about it.
Tons of stress, really hard on your relationships and that's why I sold my first room.
I wanted out, I was sick of managing people, I was sick of managing clients.
I found in Jesus Christ, I'm getting a headache, just thinking about it.
So real upsides, real downsides, but again, just to summarize, you got to be social, got
to have the ability to create really strong relationships, you got to over serve your
first three clients.
They need to be evangelists for you.
I mean, they just got to feel like you do anything for them, you would jump on a grenade
for them because you want them to be evangelists for you.
Those first three or five clients are kind of everything.
It's been a lot of time trying to get to three or four outstanding people, then give them
big chunks of the firm such that they won't go anywhere.
The only way to get people to act like owners is to make them owners and also recognize the
upsides and downsides of what it means to be in a services business.
Go Canada!
Thanks for the question.
We'll be right back after a quick break.
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We say this all the time on our show, but it bears repeating.
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Welcome back onto our final question, which comes from Reddit.
User SincerelyTrue asks, "Hi Scott, I recently finished Why Nations Fail and there's a section
on preventing authoritarianism.
They recommend mobilizing a broad segment of society, including unions, churches and business
organizations.
How can the democratic party or other movements better mobilize business organizations and
leaders in the fight for democracy when so many have backed Trump?"
Oh God, wish I knew.
I have been shocked at how little resistance and pushback there's been from the corporate
world.
And I'm not sure you're going to find it from corporations because in America, it is so
tempting to just try and get from a million and worth to three million to five million
from one billion to a billion.
America is just all pretty much about how much stuff you have because how much stuff
you have is really the healthcare you can provide yourself and your children, the opportunities
you can provide your children, how hot or not hot your husband or your wife is, how interesting
a party is, how nice a vacations.
The market has become so stratified.
When I was a kid, my dad's boss had a slightly bigger house, but kind of lived in the same
neighborhood and we all were at the same summer club or country club.
He had a Ford Thunderbird, my dad had a Grand Turin.
I mean, it's just a slightly better life, but it was in striking distance now.
People who don't make a lot of money are flying spirit airlines and watching drunk people physically
abuse each other and then having to deplane while everyone, while this guy gets escorted
off by airport security and really rich people get to fly on a Gulfstream 650 where they can
watch Netflix and do FaceTime on the plane and have some really hot dude bringing them
mimosas on the plane and oh, if they're 30 minutes late because they want to grab an
additional 30 minutes with their kid over dinner, they just text their pile.
I mean, the delta between what it means to be middle class and what it means to be rich
in this country has gone from three inches to fucking 2 million miles.
The incentives to make the incremental decisions to become wealthy are just so incredibly dramatic.
One of the best ways to get wealthy right now is to play into the authoritarian's handbook.
People start showing up with golden, engraved, tacky trophies and saying, "I love spending
time with Melania.
Jesus Christ, Tim Cook.
What a fucking coward you are."
Literally, what a coward you are.
Right up there with Bob Iger, literally Neville Chamberlain and a cashmere sweater minus the
dignity.
All these people bending a knee and now why do they do it?
Because they feel a lot of responsibility, their fiduciaries for their shareholders and
the temptations to make more money are so huge and Trump, to his authoritarian credit,
has created a bright blue line path between kissing his ass and ignoring democracy and
not engaging in capitalism and engaging in cronyism because you will get richer.
These guys, if we're waiting on the better angels of companies, of CEOs to show up, don't
hold your breath.
Sam Altman, all these fucking douchebags showing up and bending a knee so they can get richer
so they can get their eighth billion instead from seven billion.
I've been hugely disappointed.
What can they do?
I don't know.
I don't think it's up to them.
I think it's up to us.
I think 7 million people showing up for a protest is important.
I think voting is really important.
I am moving back to the United States early because I want to be in the fight.
How am I going to be in the fight?
I'm going to use my social media platforms and this platform and my writing to try and
inform people around what I think is going on, why I think it is wrong and methods for
pushback.
I think donating money to candidates, I'm going to try and bring a bunch of candidates
on my other podcast, Raging Moderates, to elevate their profile.
I'm going to give some money.
I'm going to do a tour and try and bring attention to Democratic candidates for Congress.
I don't think we can rely on the better angels of companies.
I think it has to be voters.
I think it has to be citizens.
I think it has to be protest.
I think it has to be talking to your friends about what's wrong with this.
I think it has to be, I'd like the idea of a national economic strike where people stop
buying shit on a certain day or targeting certain companies with specific ass.
I think there are things we can do, but I think waiting on the better angels of CEOs,
don't hold your breath.
It never fucking happens.
We're always hoping that Sheryl Sandberg is different because she cares about gender
balance.
She wrote a book about it.
Despite the fact she came up with a business model to encourage teenage girls to start
cutting themselves, she cares.
She cares.
Then there was Sam Altman with his hush tones, his hush tones.
These are fears we worry about.
Thank you, Senator, for the question.
Fuck you with your synthetic relationships and deciding the porn's okay.
By the way, the collision of porn and synthetic relationships for young men is a disaster
waiting to happen.
What happens when a 15-year-old boy approaches a girl at the cool kid's table and gets rebuffed?
There's a word for that.
It's called being a 15-year-old boy and decides, "You know what?
I have this incredible synthetic AI brought to be my musk or Sam Altman that will perform
erotic acts for me and tell me I'm great and is funny and knows exactly how to keep me
glued to my computer and before I know it, I lose all mojo to talk to strange women or
spend money trying to take a woman to a movies.
I don't talk to my dad.
I don't talk to my sister.
I wake up fucking 30 years old in a basement playing video game Obese and Anxious.
That is literally where we're headed.
Too much?
Too much?
I think it's more vocal pushback, but boss, if we're waiting on corporations, the army
isn't showing up.
Next with a question.
That's all for this episode.
If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to
[email protected].
Again, that's
[email protected] or if you prefer to ask on Reddit, just post
your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit and we just might feature it in an upcoming
episode.
This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez, our assistant producer is Laura Genere.
Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
Thank you for listening to The Prop G Pop and Prop G Media.
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