How will the ‘Super’ El Niño affect the Philippines?

Your listening to Puma Podcast. I think the key is to us early. Because the development is rather gradual. So essentially we have several months of lead time to prepare and that can be used for planning. In fact, they have already identified in November. So this area is potentially below normal in December and January, February, next year. We have been seeing, reading and hearing it all over the news. The super El Niño is here. Some media reports have even called it Godzilla. But before we push the panic button, what does an El Niño event even mean? As early as April, the Philippine Atmospharic Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or Pagasa, raised its El Niño alert, echoing warnings being issued by scientists and weather agencies around the world. More recently, the government weather bureau said that the El Niño conditions are expected to further intensify into a very strong event by the end of 2026 towards the first quarter of 2027. It's not the first time that we are faced with El Niño conditions, but what makes this one particularly worrying? And how does climate change fit into this picture? I'm Jussette Enano and you're listening to Tecateca. In June, I spoke with meteorologist and climate scientist Dr. Rafaela Jain Del Fino to walk us through what El Niño is, how and why it develops, and how the Philippines can best prepare for its worst impacts. I'm Jain Del Fino, I currently teach and do research at the UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology. So I'm a meteorologist nor a climate scientist. And I currently lead the climate and high-impact weather laboratory where in which we do work primarily doing research on climate change, climate variability, and also extreme events in the Philippines. For today's conversation, I kind of want to focus on one particular climate event. And this is something that we're already seeing in the news and that is the El Niño. Could you talk a bit more about what El Niño is, perhaps both, I guess, in a more technical sense, but also on a more layman sense? But what do you think is the development of climate events and why do they occur? El Niño is actually a part of a natural climate pattern, which we refer to technically as the El Niño Souser in Oscillation. So, what El Niño is the warm face of Oscillation, and the cold face is the same. So, the area during El Niño is the same. The other thing we see is the catobigat, essentially, is turned and central pacific, east of the Philippines. So during El Niño, the two big ones are more likely to be turned and central pacific. And we see that the warm face is the same. And during El Niño, cooler than normal. These changes are the same. The heat and the heat of the two big ones are more likely to be turned and central pacific. Essentially, have an impact on the atmospheric circulation. So essentially, the heat and the heat of the heat are much higher, much more powerful, much more powerful. So, El Niño is not the same. So between, we see that the neutral conditions are different. So during neutral conditions, there are heat that is heated and not in the face of pacific. We see that the easterlies are traduit. The heat of the heat is not in the east or west of us. So, it's actually the same. It's not that hot in the west or Pacific. So during El Niño, the three-bins are more likely to be turned and not in the west or Pacific. It's like if you're looking for a central or Eastern Pacific. So, the heat of the heat of the two big ones is much higher. The heat of the heat is the warm air rises. So essentially, the conducive for cloud formation and development. So essentially, the heat, much more powerful, is used in the eastern Pacific during El Niño. When we see the heat in the west or Pacific, the heat of the heat is much higher. So essentially, the heat of the heat is the same. During El Niño conditions. So, there is no conducive or no heat. So that the clouds and eventually the heat of the heat. During El Niño conditions, the heat of the heat of the heat of the heat is relatively more drought conditions. The heat of the heat of the heat is relatively normal. So, the heat of the heat of the heat is relatively more powerful. How is climate change related to the El Niño Southern oscillation? So, does it affect El Niño? Does it make it stronger? I think we can break that down into three general questions. So, one is, how does El Niño affect the global climate change? So, the relationship between El Niño and climate change is that, during El Niño years, they actually push the overall global temperature a little bit warmer. So, most of the top 10, warmest years on record. So, for example, 2024, 2016, I think '97, '98, we're actually during El Niño years. The second question, which is, I think, more 31, the effect of the climate change in El Niño as a result of the oscillation. So, this is one very active area of research. Essentially, scientists are still studying this relationship. Over the past several decades, no. El Niño, of course, the frequency is around 27 years. And some scientists are showing that in the more recent decades, more frequent than the swing from El Niño to La Niña conditions. So, after 1960s, the swing from El Niño to La Niña phase is more, the magnitude is a little bit more. So, the other thing is that the El Niño and La Niño events are still studying. Only that there are no consensus. As to how climate change has already affected El Niño itself. Since El Niño is a naturally-occurring phenomenon, no. And climate change is essentially a combination of natural and human-made factors. But only that climate change is actually being rapidly intensifying primarily because of the greenhouse gas emissions. And it's certain, I think, which is, I think, more important. So, how will climate change affect El Niño's oscillation in the future? So, this is very highly likely that it will intensify the impacts of El Niño. Everything in our climate are related or interconnected. [Music] Now, zooming in more closely on the Philippines now, because we are already, as it itself, Paul has already said that El Niño conditions are already present. And so, there is a high likelihood that we will see it towards, or already happening towards this mid-20/26, Hangang 20/27. And I think that's why there are other languages that are used. So, at least in the reports, they call it Godzilla El Niño or Super El Niño. Although I understand these are not necessarily scientific terms, the scientists and with yourologist, you spoke when they studied these atmospheric conditions. I think, there's no doubt that there's a difference in the use of Super El Niño. But technically, we don't use it. So, we use the weak moderate strong and then very strong El Niño event. So, what scientists does is actually categorize the different El Niño events based on its threat. So, we measure it in terms of how much warmer for El Niño is the sea surface temperature in the eastern central Pacific to aid an average, which we usually use it up at a relatively or a baseline period of 30 years. So, the strength is also 0+ 0.5 to 1 degrees, 1 degrees to 1.5 degrees, and shows 1.5 to 2 degrees. Degreesal Shoes are based on Strait. So kong week, so it's actually 0.5 to 1 degrees. Tapas siyang vei distrong is greater than 2 degreesal Shoes. So which I think is what the media is referring to as super Elvenia. So in fact yesterday, yung new recent updates from CPC NOAA, they are saying that 63% chance of a very strong, meaning greater than 2 degreesal Shoes. Elinia event as of currently partying as of current model observations and observations are saying there's a 63% chance of a very strong Elinia by a winger. So that's November, December. Genoaari up to February. You mentioned earlier that with Elinia event we are expecting drier than normal conditions for lesser cloud formation. So specifically for the Philippines, which faces an average of 20 typhoons every year. What specific impacts will we see in the coming months until I guess the early 2027 that is related to Elminio? Does it mean that we'll have fewer storms or storms with lesser rainfall? When you're in the bag, during Elinio, you're not much better than the warm pool. So we expect that relatively in terms of number, frequency, so you're more likely to see the light of the landfall. Because you're not going to see the light. You're not going to be able to see the light. But in the past, you already saw the light of the landfall. But there are studies also showing, in fact, one of my students look at this. Particularly during September October, November, December. So essentially the peak typhoon activity in the Philippines. During Elinio conditions, since much more heat, the tubing. So I'm just going to see the Pacifico. The water is essentially a unit. So the water is the energy that is being washed away. The warm ocean water is not. So since you're talking about water, don't form it and eventually make it to inside the Philippine Aerobrosponsibility and those that take landfall are actually more intense than during the water conditions. And we're not necessarily going to see that relatively dry conditions. We don't have that amount of water. So we just need to be careful. That's not in Elinio. It's not like other water systems that are affected by the water. So that's what the water is. There are some that are not even there. So although it's more content, there are some that are not. So we are still expecting tropical secures. So you usually affect us. We're just during the peak conditions. So essentially starting November, December, January. So we would really expect below normal conditions, below normal rainfall conditions across parts of the country. And do you also have a different effect on other countries in the Philippines? Are there certain regions very specific to the Philippines that are in the most common areas that affect more severely? Let's say for example, is it areas, for example, in the eastern part of the country, is it more widespread? Or is it more of a different impact, although it's different in severity? Yes, I think the last tape that would be more accurate. So usually in the measuring Elinio conditions, I think very widespread delegate. We're also seeing that especially if we talk about the past, very strong Elinio average. So I think I cannot say the specific regions because they're currently developing the Elinio. But I think in general, particularly because of drought conditions, so we would expect the major agricultural regions to be affected more than others. So most vulnerable are the places where the water is used. Particularly for example for agricultural areas. And they do not have the right infrastructure, for example, for irrigation to support during the cracking season. That's what I think is a painful arrival. And that's what we're looking for. I recall Dr. J. No, the previous Elinio events in the Philippines, the last time the record was agricultural damage. I'm looking at reports in 2024 that the Department of Agriculture has recorded at least 15 billion agricultural damage due to Elinio and Loll. But seeing the models that we have right now, we already know that this likelihood of this very strong Elinio is very high. So, and the poor Elinio events are also a tabat govend rather of national and local governments to really help mitigate the worst impacts for the agricultural sector. But also generally in the making sure that our food systems and food security is not in the worst condition. When the Elinio event is still happening. I think the key is to actually. So we should have prepared, we should have started preparation as early as February. So we have time to prepare. So first thing I think is to descend to and essentially monitor the Agasa advice release. In fact, they have already identified, especially for example in November. So this area is potentially below normal. In December and January, February next year. Very critical than your water resources. So in terms of our ESR was also our irrigation system. And then Siguro. Morning research on drought tolerant varieties of crops. The farmers can actually plant during Elinio conditions. And for us then as individuals essentially. So, we know that in Elinio conditions, especially during the latter part of the year, we would expect very dry conditions. Below normal rainfall conditions, so we need to a little bit prepare for that. So essentially conserve water. So we have been causing hotter than normal temperature. So those that are high vulnerable to heat stress. So the elderly, the children and even the immunocompromised or essentially, the people who are sick. So we also need to prepare for that. And we also, as mentioned earlier, you know, so we need to heal Elinio. We can be out. So we do experience different types of weather systems. And your compound effects. So when we are together with Elinio, for example, might have strong typhoons. And essentially, there are some other thunderstorm signs that experience. So your compound effects of multiple hazards happening at the same time. And your weather and climate hazards are not so we do have other natural hazards such as earthquake. Now that we are in the preparation stage, and the full-monger-classing information should our listeners be on the lookout for. And what are some of these sources of information that we could turn to to make sure that we are getting the right information and are not being mis-informed by perhaps what we're seeing on social media. First thing first is to actually seek information from the official sources. So when it comes to climate information that's pagasa. So they have the monthly climate for the room. So I think that's available in YouTube. And then of course they have the website and Facebook pages. For agriculture, there's the Department of Agriculture, do you know? So they do provide specific information about how, for example, the agricultural sector can prepare for the impacts of and so. And they've been providing several aids to our farmers in preparation for and so. There's a local government units. So they can ask their local government units to provide information specific to their areas. Make sure that you are looking at official sources and listening to the right people. While scientists are still studying the relationship between El Nino events and climate change, one thing is clear. The hotter and drier the normal conditions under El Nino provide us with a worrying preview of a hotter world. A world where food systems are put under strain, where coral reefs are threatened due to warming oceans, and where vulnerable populations are more exposed to heat related health conditions. It is a terrifying future. But one that we can still see. 'Til change and also prepare for, just as we are and should be preparing for this very strong alnino ahead of us. Super or not, we simply cannot rely on narratives of resilience to survive in this warming world. As Dr. Delphino reminds us, we still have time to act. Again, this is Jisette Enano and you've been listening to Tech At Techah. Our producer is Tresha Akino. Audio for this episode is edited by Anthony Tobias. For more Tech At Techah, follow us on Spotify or subscribe to the Pomapodcast channel on YouTube. Maraming Salamat Poh.