How To Win Your Auction Draft This Season (Episode 1009 with Adam Levitan and NFFC Hall of Famer Chris Eibl)

(upbeat music) - Hello and welcome to episode 109 of the official established the run.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and with drafting season nearly upon us, it is time to discuss the purest form of Fanny's football drafting, the auction draft. For this, we are joined by old friend of the show. One of the sharpest auction players I've met, he's in the NFFC Hall of Fame. I can't believe there's an NFFC Hall of Fame, but there is and he's in it. Has insane results and auctions that has led him to third on the money list there. It is the one and only Chris Eibel from the high-stakes streets. Chris, how's it going today? - Doing great, just like I said, just got back from a family vacation in Maine and gearing up for the usual trips to New York and Vegas for some high-stakes auctions. - Very exciting stuff. On today's show, we are going to discuss all things auction drafts 2026. Strategy adjustments this year's auction landscape, best auction practices for this year and lots more. I just also want to say huge thanks to Chris for doing this. He's playing big, but he still comes on here each year and tries to help out his fellow auction bros. So I always appreciate the time and candor from Chris. Before we get into it here today, reminder that if you have a fantasy football draft coming up, we can help. Our NFL early bird bundle product is now live that prices up for a limited time. It combines draft kit pro with our in-season product. Draft kit pro, of course, includes all of our auction values, auction strategy, and she players to target and then in-season, we will have Thormin's rankings and tons of other season long content as well. So for more details on the early bird bundle or just draft kit pro, head to the subscribe tab on establishedtherun.com. All right, Chris, I want to talk about the landscape first here in 2026 because I think we've seen some important changes. In snake drafts, the thirst for running back once we get past the first three wide receivers is absolutely out of control. In snake drafts, I'm expecting 12 of the first 20 picks this year to be running backs. What do you think that means for the auction streets this year? - So I always want to pivot against trends, whether it's running back thirst or any other position. So doing the same thing as everyone else doesn't give you any type of edge. So if everyone else is panicking about running backs, that just means discounts at other positions. So I'm seeing really good opportunities to stack your wide receiver three spot this year with like Devon to spith, Zey flowers. And I've always been comfortable, especially in these standalone leagues where you're not trying to compete with a large field. Rostring guys like Montgomery, Bucky Irving, Javonte Williams, just guys who can get you by at that running back position. So yeah, the punchline is like, you don't win auctions by overpaying for the same position everyone else is changing. - Yeah, excuse me. - Yeah, do you think that these first running backs are bloated in price like, you know, I like a lot of these guys, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Chase Brown, I could poke some holes in H&N and more in Hampton certainly. But I guess coming into it, my thought wasn't that they're overvalued, necessarily they're just expensive, but it sounds like maybe you think they're also overvalued. It's not so much that they're overvalued. I've just always found it easier to construct a team where I'd receive her first because it allows you to use your waiver wire ability to pick up running backs as guys get hurt. So that's always just been an easier approach for me more so than anything is wrong with the guys you mentioned. - Yep, okay, that makes a lot of sense. Yeah, and that's like the auction specific strategy that I think is important to think through when you're playing auctions. You know, most auction players, most successful auction players, employ a stars and scrub strategy. If you are passing on some of these expensive running backs and going for maybe undervalued stuff, Zae Flowers, Devonta Smith, you mentioned might be cheaper than they should, which I think is certainly possible as well, are you still into stars and scrubs based on this year's landscape? - Yeah, so I would still go stars and scrubs. I still think especially in 10 or 12 team formats that that's the preferred way to go because you're really allowing yourself to get all your money into your starting lineup. And then that prevents you from making mistakes down the line like having too much money left on the table at the end. And for like I said, a waiver wire grinder, it's kind of a dream to just be able to rebuild the rest of your roster as the season goes along. So no need to pivot from stars and scrubs this year, especially in those, those shallower formats. - Yeah, one thing that I was thinking about stars and scrubs format is that, I don't know if you feel this, but I feel like there's fewer good fantasy players. And we can see this in the data too. Like scoring is down, passing yardage is down. Plays per game is down. And some of that I think is like kickoff rule stuff. I think some of that is also offensive coordinators responding to soft defenses by running the ball more. And so I think there's like been a macro change in NFL where it's harder for me to find round 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 snake draft picks that I like. Does that flow through to auction where it's harder to find $1 or $2 guys to complete out a stars and scrubs type of construction? - I still think there are enough guys, enough committee backfields, for instance, where you don't have to necessarily know who's gonna be best, but you can acquire the whole Washington backfield, the whole Carolina backfield, and still fill out those stars and scrubs lineups with pretty good players. Some wide receivers get suppressed in those formats, like the Colts and the Green Bay guys that I think are people like, but we're still not seeing the prices catch up to that. So I still think there are ways to fill out your roster with the stars and scrubs approach. - You know, as I'm saying that, it does kind of strike me that the stars are even better. In other words, what we see is that wide receiver threes and wide receiver fours are getting worse. They're on the field, last teams are throwing less often. And then you get the wide receiver one and riders rear two competing more against tight ends and running backs for targets. They're gonna win that battle. So like, yeah, the stars, yeah, it makes more sense, it makes more sense to me that there are, the stars are even better this year, as it gets more condensed in terms of how teams are using their players. Oh, we always get the same question. When we talk about stars and scrubs, Chris, they want to know what you mean by stars and scrubs. How much of your, how much of your budget is stars? Should they be having all stars and then like $61 guys or something like that or where do you draw the line on what's too much stars in a stars and scrubs construction? - Yeah, so for, this is gonna be format specific, but if you're typical like 12 team league where maybe you're starting three receivers, you don't really wanna go more than like 60% of your budget on those like top couple guys because you don't wanna leave both your wide receiver three and your flex spot uncovered. But where I start to get really aggressive is if there's two wide receiver formats or 10 team formats, I don't have a problem like, you think of a typical 10 team league. If I get like beach on in Gibbs for $75 a piece, like I can still get guys like Parker Washington and Devonte Adams in that format just to fill out the roster. So definitely the shallower that roster is like, that format is like the more you wanna push up big prices on those top stars. - Yeah, okay. I mentioned that I thought it was an interesting year or thinking it's an interesting year for stars to really separate from everyone else. Of course, stars are the hardest to acquire because even in casual leagues, not high stakes or whatever, there are everybody's gonna want, Jamar Chase, Gibbs, Puka, et cetera. How do you think about building around expensive guys and are there any quote unquote, unsexy guys near the top of the board that you think might get overlooked? - Yeah, we've talked before about how drafters are often timid early at the start of drafts and I've always theorized that it's because there are probably multiple guys game planning around exactly the guys you mentioned, Bijan, Gibbs, Chase. And they kinda wanna hoard that cash early because they've mapped out their holder after round those guys. So I think that's the perfect time to nominate like the tier below, a couple of my expensive favorites are Jonathan Taylor, JSN. And nominating those guys, well, Bijan, Gibbs and Chase are still on the board, kind of forces everyone else to make a decision on them before they're really ready to. And Taylor in particular, we saw expanded past game usage, still has running back one ceiling, but he's still viewed as somewhat of a boring option by a lot of people. So the hope is by nominating them early, you're getting Taylor in the 30s or JSN at more of the lamb Jefferson price than the Puka price when guys are holding onto their wallets until those big four get nominated. - Yeah, a couple guys that came to mind for me as like top of the board might go overlooked. I don't know what you think. Drake London feels like people aren't that excited. It's like price and force or run you up your price on it. and also, I was gonna say Chase Brown, but I think he's gotten more steam lately, and then definitely Devon H&N, like I'm not on H&N, but there's a lot of people like me that are also not on H&N. So yeah, and he thought some of those guys going overlook London H&N or Chase Brown. - Yeah, I see that second tier running through H&N and Andre Klondon. So I don't think player takes are super important. So like those guys exactly fit into the tier of the kind of guy where you nominate them early. People are gonna be like, "I don't know what to do." "I want to dispend all this money on Bejohn and Good." - Right, yeah, take a lot of sense. Okay, anything to say not to you at Quarterback this year? For us, we have this huge tier of similarly projected Quarterbacks from basically like Dak Prescott, all the way to Goff, and that tier includes a lot of guys that frankly, I like Jackson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Stafford, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Bonix, Purdy, Mahomes, and I mentioned Dak and Goff already. That kind of stands out to me that there's such a huge tier that we have projected similarly this year. Any thoughts on applying that to auction or any other Quarterback thoughts? - Yeah, and like interesting observation for me, like I don't base my values off of Vegas props, but like I was just looking at season leader passing props for fun, and four of the five favorites to lead the league and passing and passing touchdowns are like two dollar guys this year. You got Dak, Goff, Stafford, Purdy. You've got rushing upside with Lawrence who might be my favorite in that range. So yeah, my instinct is to wait on this massive like middle tier of guys you mentioned and just take two of whoever is cheapest. It's not to say I won't bid on Mayor Burrow when there's like a discount to be had, like by that I mean when they drop to like a $78 range, but yeah, sign me up for that middle tier if I'm not getting a discount elsewhere. - Yeah, so like on our suggested values, like we have Josh Allen for 27, and this is out of a 200 budget, you know Josh Allen 27, Lamar 18, Jaden 15, Jalen hurts 13 like in a vacuum, I think those are all good values, but if you tell me that I can get Trevor Lawrence for two, it seems really bad to spend 30 or whatever it takes to get Josh Allen, right? So like I don't know, like I don't know if people are gonna be, I don't know if everybody thinks that or people are gonna be like clicking the button on Josh Allen Lamar a lot. - Yeah, I think if you just go into an auction agnostic of like who, you know, which one you get, you know, all those guys you value at like 10, 11, 13, like yeah, they might be worth that, but one of those guys is just because of the depth is inevitably gonna slip through for five bucks. So yeah, I like to be in on every player from the sense that I'm bidding 50, 60% of what they're worth, and hey, if I win one great, but like totally comfortable at that middle tier. - Okay, yeah, we'll talk more about Super Flex here a little bit later and price enforcing also, which Chris just brought up. I didn't want to touch on the Titan landscape here. So Elite Titan is a controversial subject this year. There are people who think Brock Bowers is going to break the league and next year be a top five overall pick in Snake. And then there are people who think that taking Bowers, McBride, Loveland is too expensive, given the Titan position. So it's tough in auctions, certainly you still need a Titan, but what do you think about handling the Elite Titans, Bowers, McBride, and the Loveland steam, which I assume is coming. - Yeah, I'm fine with like Bowers, McBride, Loveland at cost, and you know, similar to that tier quarterbacks I just mentioned, I'll throw in bids of like 70% of what I think they were, 80% and maybe I get lucky, maybe I don't. But there may be not targets of mine unless I'm in a shallower league, like a 10 team league or a home league where I can really build up my wide receiver and running back positions easier. And the reason there's just not maybe a target and maybe more difficult leagues is because, like I know you're comfortable with the top eight this year. And when I look at that fan in craft pits or Laporta tier, it's the same thing as the quarterbacks. I don't know which of those guys is only going to go for five or six dollars, but because there are four of them, I know one of them will. And so I think you're getting a fairly high floor and ceiling from all those guys that like in a tougher league, I'm sticking with that range. - Absolutely, yeah, and like craft Laporta fan in pits, I agree with you, like all four of them, I think are similar-ish outlooks and bets like I have personal preferences, but we certainly have them pretty close there. And then beyond that, like even if you missed on that tier, which in auction, I don't think you really should, but even if you missed on that tier, I mean, you have George Kittle later, you have Duncan Kade later. I mean, there's some like legit options that are maybe going to be very, very cheap. Like do you think you can get King Kade or Kittle for like a dollar or two? Is that possible? - I haven't seen Kittle go for that cheap. I think there are enough people excited about Kittle in most auctions, but yeah, you might like those guys, I might like Isaiah likely just to see if he can cross that next tier. I think there's enough to make you feel like you're leaving a draft with some upside at that $2 range. - Yeah, okay, let's go to roster construction. I wanted to ask about balance builds. I know we talked so much about stars and scrubs on here, are there any dynamics that would lead you to a balanced build this season? - The only time I'm intentionally going shooting for a balanced build is those deeper formats, like with a 14-teamer, where if you do go stars and scrubs, you might only be one injury away from starting just as hill and hoping he catches a couple dump passes for five points. So yeah, and 14-teamers, I might skew a little more towards like I'd rather have the collection of Mike Evans, Devante Adams, and Parker Washington, then like a single Justin Jefferson. But in general, like I think, you know, with myself, I think a lot of your listeners probably fit that waiver wire grinder mold where I feel like that shines best with the stars and scrubs approach. - Right, and yeah, if you're going to go stars and scrubs, like Chris is saying, you better be prepared to grind the wire, you know, like we're going to help you as much as we can with the shows and the Q&As and our waiver wire lists and everything else as part of the product. But yeah, you got to be in there to grind the waiver wire if you're going to go stars and scrubs. So yeah, certainly be sure that you are up for that. Oh, we got a question from someone. I forgot to write in the name. He said in more casual leagues, the stars will go for more than they should. What is our strategy if so? So it's kind of like what we already talked about here where there's certain guys are going to go, the star is going to go for a lot. And it's what happens to get in a room where everybody's trying to go stars and scrubs and even Jonathan Taylor and Drake London and Devine H and all these guys are getting over bid based on your values. How do you respond then? - Yeah, I think I still want to anchor my team to one star. So maybe the first thing I'll say is like a lot of times I'll get questions where people say these stars are going for too much. Just make sure you're not in one of those shallower formats 'cause like, I don't think 70 something is too much for Bijan Gibbs in a shallower format. But let's say they truly are going for too much. My preferred strategy is to zag then. And like, well, I think it's appropriate to zag. Like I think the mistake people make doing that is they wait until like the round four type guys to start buying. So my preferred approach in that instance is maybe a one star hybrid where like I'm playing a slight premium for that one star just because I have to the markets making me. But as soon as the top tier clears out, if they're truly paying too much for those top 24 players, like I should be able to get the meat next tier like Olawe or George Pickens or something's wrong with my math. And so like I usually handle that with an inflation tracker and Excel which sounds complicated but it's really just actual winning bids against my projections going in and if guys are going for too much like that discount should come in the next tier or two. - Yeah, well the average budget that people have remaining is just going to keep going down which obviously you should be tracking during your auction to how much money your opponents have left and how many spots that they need to fill. How much is an overpay I guess? Like let's say you have Josh Allen for 27 as your value. How bad is it to pay 30 for him or how bad is to pay 32 for Josh Allen? How strict are you with your values going in? - The only time I'm really wanting to overpay like I said is if it is for like one of those top 20 type talents so like you'd never catch me unless it's like a Superfect Flex overpaying for Josh Allen but if I am trying to overpay to get that star in my lineup like it can make sense to do 20% if I'm just trying to force like a single star in my lineup because like I said if you get left out until like the fourth round then you risk having like guys you spent a lot on end up on your bench and that's just of no use to you. - Yep, okay. You mentioned a little bit about nomination strategy already. General more general nomination strategy should you be nominating guys you want or guys that you don't and then early late anything else on who to nominate when is your turn to throw a guy out there? - Yeah kind of expanding on what I mentioned about like Taylor and JSN I always think you're it's easier to guys when you're nominating just a single tear below like the current crop of players who's being nominated so like that extends down the board where like if Kenneth Walker's the last like second round type running back left that's the time to nominate Breeze Hall or Javonte Williams. The only thing I'll caution there is like don't go too far far down your board because like if Jonathan Brooks is your sleeper you're nominating him like no one's gonna you buying Jonathan Brooks is an impediment to buying Kenneth White. or like just stick to a tear below. Aside from that, the other nomination will I go by is just to adjust on room, like the room temperature, basically if guys are going for too cheap, you should be buying as much as possible, nominating guys you want at that moment before people realize they are going for too cheap. And conversely, if guys are going for too much, then that's when I wanna throw out in that moment, the guys on less interested in. - Yeah, what about endgame nomination strategy? Like you're down to six bucks, you have four spots to fill. There's certainly strategy in like bidding too when your opponents only have one dollar left on a guy that you want anything else for endgame nomination strategy. - I would say second to knowing what your league has paid in the past for prices. Like the most important prep thing you need to do is set those one or two dollar guys like targets. Like I know you recently had like a late round flyer article where you listed one injury away guys. Like that's the type of thing I'm looking at and being like who am I targeting for one dollar or two dollars 'cause my bench, I want that all to be about contingent upside. So like step one, get that list out, be prepared of knowing who you're targeting. And then step two, like look around the room, see who has money. If everyone has one dollar except for two teams of two dollars and one of those is the say-quano owner, like don't nominate tank Biggsby. Like you know you just wasted your nomination as that guy's hanging on to his two bucks. So like the little more advanced strategy would just be like to be really careful about like other team's rosters needs who have more money than you and can kind of like lay down a hammer on you. - Yeah, we have an article in the auction section of draft kit where we're updating and continue to say maintaining a list of our favorite one and two hour players or players we expect to go for one or two dollars. So yeah, you can certainly take that to your draft and certainly bring some of your own there as well really important for the end. Okay, so about some of trends going on this year in auctions, we mentioned the running back thirst. Is there anything else you've seen in terms of auction trends this year that is unique to this season? - Yeah, nothing too crazy. Like I think it is a little different to see guy, like like genty through walker tier of running backs like above the AJ Brown, Drake London, Nico Collins types but I don't think that running back thirst is necessarily permeating to like the middle of the draft. So in general, I don't know that there are any differences that are too substantial that auction players need to take into consideration just from the overall landscape. - Okay, I don't know like if these auction, most of the auction opponents are like on Twitter and stuff but there is some crazy steam going on like players going up five, six rounds in ADP based on hype, et cetera. Are there any players you think are going to get bloated at auction this year? We already talked about some of the running backs at the top. But gosh, I mean, you know, I log in now, I go to do a draft and I see Martian Lynch going in, sorry, Martian Lloyd going in round 13 and Jayden Blue going in round 14 and Pat Bryant going in round 15, you know, these guys are like one dollar players in auction. I understand that but my point is that the steam on this can get really add a controller. Are there any players in the auction street specifically you think I can get bloated this year? - Yeah, I think it happens every year with like the preseason highlights and young ride receivers in particular. Like I think the like the first time Jordan Tyson makes one of those like spectacular pirouette catches that like we've been seeing in highlight videos, like he's going to become a one shock me if he became like a $20 player at that point. Like Colonel Tate same thing. So I think those are kind of the guys that are going to get steamed up as we get closer to the draft. You might have another got class of players that have really high upside, but are maybe being paid at that upside. Like people are clamoring over a book. I keep seeing him go higher and higher. Maybe the other two guys you hit on one of them, Marsha on Lloyd. Like the second Marsha on Lloyd and Jonathan Brooks like pull off a preseason run where they look healthy. Like I think we're going to see some real heavy steam and I like their prices today, but I don't know that'll like them tomorrow. - Yeah, and I assume you're not chasing things like Tyson and Tate up the board, right? - No, I definitely think it's best not to get caught up in the high play. I think like as we see people rise in fall, I think it's important to analyze like, whether what drove them to rise or fall, like really matters or not. And I don't necessarily think like, you know, preseason depth charts might, but preseason highlights don't really sway for me. - Do you get the sense that people are more anchored to their prices in auction? I'm sorry, more anchored to ADP and Snake than like prices in auction. Other words, like I know people, including myself, like before this Lutherburton injury, Lutherburton injury really wanted to take him, but I still wasn't going to be like, oh, third round Lutherburton, no problem because I'm more anchored to ADP. But in an auction, I could see myself getting like, out of control, like, hey man, you're not taking Lutherburton for me, you know what I mean? And so like, I guess my point is that I think the steam on guys like Burden or Parker Washington or I don't know, maybe Parker Washington is a bad example, but the steam on guys who have a lot of hype, getting more out of control in auction versus Snake. I don't know if you feel that or think that's true. - Yeah, it's really hard to predict, but you do see some of those auctions where like, let's say a burden, a burden is like the perfect, I mean, no, you know, you just got hurt a little bit, but like, he's exactly the type of player. If you run into one where two guys just love Lutherburton, maybe they're both bears fans, I don't know. You see these outrageous bidding wars where like you see like $35 for Lutherburton and you're just like WTF that puts them at like a second round pick. So it's really hard to predict because it always takes two to do something like that. But yeah, with these hype guys, it'll happen. - Yeah, and it's certainly like, you know, in homelings, there's gonna be a lot of people that don't show up with their own auction numbers. How tied do you think they are? I don't know, you probably don't play much on the Yahoo ESPN sleeper types up, but how tied do you think they are to these suggested values that are on those sites like ESPN and Yahoo and Sleeper? - I do think they're often tied just because like for a lot of players, that might be all they have to go off of that side of unless they're like really into their home team or whatever. Like I do think they are pretty tied to those, you know, expected auction values that ESPN has. - Right, and it seems like a huge value add to like either have your numbers or have ETR's auction values to see it like tied to something that is not in the draft applet, you know? And like, yeah, it should make a huge huge difference. Okay, we mentioned players might go bloated at auction, what about players that might go under looked maybe in the mid range or anywhere else, any under looked players at auction, you think this year? - Yeah, I think I annually like that whole tier of like $15 receivers. Like I always just think like the Jamison Williams, Mike Evans, Adams, Parker Washington are a great tier. And in certain home leagues, I know you mentioned Parker Washington having some steam, like I still don't think certain home leagues have caught up to that. Further down the list, like a couple of guys who like, I think like have the potential to be really valuable that everyone, that for different reasons, I think people are lower than they should be on like, DK Metcalf, like he could have had a thousand yard season if not for the fan incident. And yeah, gaining pitman hurts, but losing Arthur Smith helps. So he's a guy who like, I just don't hear any buzz on, wouldn't expect to hear any buzz on, but like if he's falling for five, six at an auction, like I feel really good about having them on my wider receiver core. And then like you guys have mentioned downs and I still don't think the price has really caught up to where it should be, but like with everything breaking, like totally perfectly so far. And yeah, there's some keen and Alan risk, but downs might be, might be just so much better than killing Alan, keen and Alan that maybe we shouldn't care. - Yeah, that's what I said about Lab McConkey last year, Chris, we shouldn't care about Keenan Allen and that was an expensive mistake. - Yeah, and I think last year I was cool on McConkey for the keen and Alan reason, but I think we saw some decline from him that like I don't think we had quite a little more decline that I don't think we had quite seen with his previous year with the bears. So I think it's more plausible that Keenan Allen goes there and just doesn't make an impact. - One guy that came to my mind for undervalued an auction is just a guy who if you pick him and snake, like no one's even gonna respond. They're not gonna say nice pick. They're not gonna say anything. It's David Montgomery, you know? And I don't even really love David Montgomery this year, but gosh, I could see him going for way too cheap in an auction 'cause he is like the least sexy pick you could make for a guy that probably is gonna get through to the touches. Like I don't really want David Montgomery in season long that badly, at all. Like where he goes around like 50th overall, but an auction if he went for something crazy cheap. I mean, let me see. We have him for 20th, 20 bucks and half a PPR. I could see him going for 15 or less. Any thoughts on that one? I was kind of expecting the same thing, but for whatever reason, I mean, people, I think people are interested enough in the team change that I am still seeing Montgomery go for 20. I think eight-time players, which is teams, there's just like a level of uncertainty and that adds some intrigue. Like I think that's the right idea. I think I'm kind of seeing it happen in practice more with like Deandre Swift where I am seeing him sometimes go in like 10 to 15 range. Sometimes like if you have enough people where like everyone just doesn't want to touch Josh Jacobs, like he might go down to 15 to. But yeah, I can definitely see it happen with Montgomery and some drafts, but I think the switching teams has helped his popularity just a little bit. - Yeah, I like that Deandre Swift one. Like I take Deandre Swift ahead of Deandre Montgomery personally and Snake for now. So yeah, I think that's an interesting one. Let's go to some miscellaneous topics here. We already talked about end game strategy a little bit in terms of nominations. Anything else you want to say about end game strategy for this year? No, I mean, the players, I do have the players I like. Like, I think, Marshon, Lloyd, Jaden, Blue, Tank, Bigs, Beard, Great, Home League options. If you're in the high stakes world, like, you might have to dig deeper to, like, Ray Davis, Brian Robinson, but like I said, it's definitely my strategy to focus solely on those contingent, like one injury way upside guys. Yeah. Do you think Chris Rodriguez is going to go for like one or two dollars or you think he's the type of guy where there's enough buzz around him that he'll go for more? Yeah, I've been seeing him go for three, four dollars. It wouldn't surprise me to see him go for a couple dollars. And he's another one where, you know, even if you want to like stack your running back bench with like the real high upside guys, like the more exciting guys, like Blue or Marshon Lloyd, like Rodriguez can give you that floor, even if he's in the split at like a very cheap cost that's going to ensure you against like injuries to your backfield. So I like Rodriguez a lot. Do you think the handcuffs go for what they should? Like, the handcuffs strategy is super interesting. I think super league dependent, like I really like Tank Bigs B as a guy to have on your bench all year this year because I'm so confident if sake one got hurt, he would absolutely smash. I'm not nearly as convinced that Brian Robinson or Isaiah Pacheco would smash if their starters went down. But yeah, how do you think handcuffing should or typically does go in auctions? I think, I mean, I think these guys go at the right price. It's just that tier where like you want to be the first person to nominate them. And I'm with you on Pacheco, like it's difficult to envision any world where an injury makes him like a stud all of a sudden. But with the Falcons, like I do think they lack enough other players that like Brian Robinson, any running back with a three down roll, is going to hit the RB2 ranks, like just through volume. And I think he can do that. And so no, I think I do think that $1 to $2 range should really be focused on on those guys because if you're getting down to that wide receiver class, like there's always going to be waiverware guys. Those guys are super replaceable. They're not going to have upside and injury doesn't give them more production in most cases. Yeah. Do you ever like try to build around cheap guys? In other words, like there's a guy know that I can get for $2 and that's part of my plan going in. Like maybe you think you can get stribbling for $2. And that's a huge part of your plan because it allows you to access more. Do you ever go into a draft with actual targets to build your team around at the cheap range? Not that cheap because like you can feel like as good as you want to feel about struggling, but like I don't think you should be that aggressive with your player takes that you know stribbling is going to be great. Like we hope he is and he's a great pick. But he sees a gamble and anyone who says otherwise like I think is a little too confident. But I do go into drafts like where I might get confident. You know, I mentioned the example of like maybe getting bijon and Gibbs on the same team. There are like $4 guys that like at the wide receiver position where I'm like I can see starting Jacobi Myers like he was on pace for $900 to $1,000 with the Jaguars last last year. I can see starting Jalen Coker like once he was healthy like it's not inconceivable that he could keep up with those six round guys. So I wouldn't go down to like $2 guys. But like yeah, there are $4 guys I really like where their presence like gives me the confidence to bid higher on stars. Yeah, do you think some of those wide receivers? You mentioned receivers that I think you can start also like also going in that range would be Matthew Golden, Xavier Worthy, Jaden Reed sometimes, Steph Diggs like do you think those guys are going to stick in that $4 range for the most part? Because if so, that seems like a great part of the plan. Yeah, I do. And outside of Worthy, who I just really struggle to ever envision trusting until he shows it again, like I think you absolutely nailed the type of players you can feel comfortable like starting like there's there's enough volume like Reed, Golden, those are great picks. So yeah, that you get the nail in the head there. Yeah, I mean, even like the browns guys, you know, like Denzel Boston, I was in a draft last night. Somebody said Denzel Boston like 120 overall, you know, I'm not going that far, but there's a lot of Denzel Boston hype. Right now it conception also on our list for cheap wider seekers to target to I like the browns guys for like basketball, but like I'm still skeptical that we're ever going to see a browns receipt for this year that we can put in a lineup and like know they're going to get 40 yards. Yeah, okay. I know you look at the ETR values. Are there any players on ETR in our actually values or rankings that you have differing opinion on versus our stuff? I always find it interesting when people push back on our rankings. Yeah, I don't. So like as a starting point, like I think you guys do a great job with rankings, which is always makes this question difficult because I do think you do a great job of filtering what matters and doesn't, but like there are subtle differences and kind of how I value players that have just made it so that I don't have any of them. And a couple of examples are probably Justin Jefferson, where I'm pretty cool on him, just like, you know, a couple months ago, I had a strong belief we were never going to see nine play again. And great news that we have confirmation that Murray's starting, but like we build in all this risk with Trey McBride that like Carson Beck's going to be a starter later in the season. The fact that the Vikings haven't shot JJ McCarthy to the moon, like still makes me fear that he's going to be the quarterback late in the season. So it's really hard for me to absorb all that risk in a player who's being valued like in the seven to ten range. So that's one example. I guess another is like I'm really high on sake one, but like I just can't take him because I feel like in order to hit where he's ranked, he needs more check downs and he needs jail and hurts to do it. And there's a clear path for that because I think that's how he's effectively used, but I'm just always nervous projecting past catching volume from running QBs. And so like I honestly just feel safer about guys like Chase Brown or even HN. Interesting. Yeah, you know, I think in in high stake stuff, HN might go for significantly cheaper than sake one. Like I can't find many people that I know who actually want to click on HN this year, you know, and so including myself, but you know, we'll see. Okay, let's go to Superflex. We have to do Superflex because ETR CEO Taylor Kaby plays in a Superflex auction league. And so we're not allowed to do this show without talking about Superflex auction. I don't even know how much Superflex auction you play if it all Chris, but if you do or have any thoughts, what adjustments do you think people need to be making an auction forced reflex leagues? I don't play in as many Superflex, but dabble a little bit. And so like, I think the most important thing for me when I'm doing those leagues is, you know, everyone knows you want two quarterbacks, but even more so than usual, like soft in your player takes on the top 20 top 21 and be in on every single one of those players because I want two of them. It's difficult to predict which quarterbacks are going to take off or not. And so that means I'm actively bidding on like almost every single one of them at like maybe 80, 85% of their price. And I don't care which I get. Like I said, I just want two of them. The other thing I'm doing, I kind of mentioned this approach with the backfields of like you have these ambiguous situations where like we had it with the Cowboys last year, you could get just being about running backs. Like you could get Javante Williams, engine blue for $3 a piece. You didn't have to be right. You just had to start running back for six bucks. And I'm not saying these guys are going to be stars, but like the ability to corner the Raiders or the Falcons quarterbacks get both of those guys for a few bucks. That makes I'd much rather do that than pay like a Jalen Waddle price in a Superflex for for Cam Ward or Bryce Young. And that's that's what I've seen them go for. I think that's really interesting. Obviously you're managing this league and so you know which quarterback to start at which point Windows or Cousins, etc. Do you ever, how important do you think it is to get three quarterbacks? Because given that strategy, if one of your targets is like Raiders together for six bucks or something, maybe you could afford to have three quarterbacks or four quarterbacks on your roster. How important do you think that is? Yeah. In a 10 team, yet you can get three and that's easy, but in like a 12 team, that is how I prefer to piece together that third quarterback. I want that insurance, but I'm looking at Atlanta Cleveland, Las Vegas and hoping that I can get one of like a set of those guys for like, you know, six, seven bucks. And that's preventing me from spending enough money to lose out on like a Jalen Waddle player. Yeah. The Raiders idea is super interesting to me because number one, I think Windows is actually going to be good. And number two, he has clean Cubiac. And number three, he's undervalued Mendoza is right now because of this rhetoric that Cousins is going to start all year. I would be shocked if Cousins started all year. And so, you know, the price is down because of those three reasons on Mendoza, I think. Yeah. It feels like what any coach would say if they sign Kirk Cousins, I mean. It's all fun with Kirk Cousins. So the first pick six. Okay. All right. Let's get to some Some listener questions here have three of them. Appreciate everyone who sent in questions a lot. of them were topics that we already covered here. Hopefully we covered yours. So we'll do three here. First up, friend of the show John Silas says, how much has your overall approach changed over the years as the landscape has evolved? Fantasy players becoming sharper, more resources available like ETR, et cetera. Strategy's changing. So yeah, any notes on changing dynamics or changing strategy for you in auction over the years? - Yeah, I would say for me, like observe the same thing. People are better at this than they were 10 years ago. But it's still important to find areas where you can create your edges. And for me, the biggest thing has been become more adaptable in terms of roster construction, like 10 plus years ago, maybe before 2016. You could print money in these high stakes leagues if you just spend all your money on four wide receivers. And the reason you could is 'cause there was maybe one other person you're like doing it. Now you get in the room with all these sharks, there's five or six guys trying to do the same thing. And like I said, the beginning of this, if everyone's doing the same thing, what's your advantage? So I think it's really important to know when to pivot. And I'm not going into any auction, thinking I have to have four wide receivers or I can't get three running backs. So flexibility is more important than ever. The second is, I think one benefit of all this influx of information is we have so much group think when players rise and fall on draft boards and everyone's saying the same thing on Twitter. And one of the things I think your marketplace Monday takes do a great job of us helping us filter what news matters and what doesn't. But I think that has allowed for some type of advantage when I think in recent years, we've seen some of these high players like I was talking about just get steamed so much closer to the drafts. - Yeah. - Question two from Autism Warrior. He says, how does your strategy change with a 10 team league versus 12 or more? Are you more afraid or less afraid to overpay for your must-haves in smaller leagues? Yeah, we've touched on this some already. We have an article up on the site where you can read it in detail how we think you should be attacking 10 team leagues and 14 team leagues in Snake. I assume some of the same strategies apply here to auction, Chris, but anything more for people in 10 team auction leagues. - Yeah, most important thing is be Uber aggressive on that top tier. Like I said, it's shallow enough that spend 70 something dollars on B-john and Gibbs. You can fill out the rest later. And so like overpaying for that top tier is absolutely something I'm not afraid of in a 10 team league versus again, the broader your lineup requirements, like the less you wanna spend. I only think it's ever advisable to like view any players as like must-haves, but I get it in your homelinks. You might want your guy. But if we are maximizing EV, I think you gotta take the value as it comes. - Yeah, the other thing that I'd say about 10 team leagues, I mean, I'm way more likely to spend a lot on Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Brock Bowers, McBride, Loveland because the waiver wire is just, you're gonna find amazing running backs and wider sewers on the waiver wire in 10 team leagues. But you're not gonna find amazing tight ends and quarterbacks that can match Josh Allen or Brock Bowers. Last question here from Matt. I think historically I've done more harm than good trying to price and force, especially when going stars and scrubs. I've been thinking about literally walking away from the screen for a period of time mid-draft. That sounds very drastic to me, Matt, but he wants to know if you have any thoughts on price enforcing and how to do this in a plus EV way. - Yeah, so don't place bids that you're not comfortable winning. Don't get me wrong, it's like definitely a rush, it's like a poker bluff, but Fantasy Football is assessing risk versus reward. And this is just a poor bet because I'll see so many auctions where like the guy who bought Josh Allen like had to bid $7 on Jay and Daniels 'cause he just can't see him go for $7. But the risk that guy's taking is that he's wasting $7. And the only benefit he's getting is some other player's gonna spend more than $2. No, $2 more than he should, maybe $4 more than he should. But that benefit doesn't even benefit just him. It benefits 11 people, but he's the person assuming all that risk. It just doesn't make sense from a risk reward perspective. So yeah, don't bid on anyone, you're not comfortable winning, but also don't walk away mid-draft because I do think at other positions, I like to be on it in on everyone. And I always wanna be there just to bid 60%, 70%, just in case an extreme value actually does pop up. And I feel like if you're not there to have the potential to get Kyron Williams for like $12 just 'cause he's a boring player, like it probably not gonna happen, but why cost yourself that chance? - Yeah, and this is the other reason it's important to go into your auction with your own numbers because Chris is saying, you know, I can price and force on every running back in wide receiver probably by bidding 60%, right? And then like if I get 'em for 60% of my value, I'll probably be pretty happy about it. Even though if it wasn't my plan, I'll probably be pretty happy with it. Do you ever price and force up? But let's say you bid 60% and someone goes $2 more than you. Are you clicking back on that or what point do you stop the price and forcing if you don't want the guy? - Yeah, is a general matter? Like I want almost everyone except for like a onesie position that I already have filled. So totally agnostic to player when I'm coming in with my values 60 to 70% on anyone, I'll take. - Yeah. So I'm not gonna see these clicking wars with people and I'm like, you know, this is still below my value, but I really, I just don't want, I like this guy, I don't want you, I don't really need this guy, but I don't want you to get this guy at a value. So I get it's like these clicking wars, which, you know, I want to stop. Maybe I'll make it like 80% or something. I'll stop clicking it back to price and force, even on guys that I like, you know? - Yeah, I find it hilarious when it gets personal. It's like 31FU. - Exactly. - Exactly. Why do auction, if it's not gonna give personal, it's great. Okay. Anything else you want to say here, Chris, about auctions before we get out of here? - No, most fun form, most fair. - Yeah. - Form a community football, love it. Wish it was more popular and hope it becomes so. - Yeah, you know, it's certainly more fair, you know? I mean, if you get the number eight pick this year, you are not getting Jamar Chase. Whereas in an auction, of course, you can get Jamar Chase and there's so many other different ways you can go, you have access to every player. I said at the top, it's the most pure form of fitness football drafting. And I honestly think like, I think it's the time commitment that people don't want, you know? Like doing an auction for 150 players or 200 players or whatever it is, it's like, takes a really long time. I think that's partly a whole hell of auction back from getting more popular. I don't know, I don't know. - Yeah, I mean, I always try to tell my kids like life isn't fair, but like, I don't react that way when I draw this 12th pick in a fantasy restaurant. - All right, Chris, I don't know if you want to be found, but if you do want to be found, tell the people where they can find you. - Sure, feel free to reach out. I'm Chris Eibel, a Twitter. As we get closer to my New York and Vegas drafts and auctions, I may be harder to reach, but until then, you know, happy to chat or correspond with anyone. - All right, really appreciate the time. From Chris, as always, huge good luck to Chris and everyone else out there grinding in the auction streets again. If you have draft kit pro, you do have access to our auction values for all formats, our cheap players, its target, strategy articles, and more. Four, Chris, for Bruce Orion. For sure Luke, I am Adam. Good luck, everybody. (upbeat music) [BLANK_AUDIO]