580. How to Solve Britain’s Youth Unemployment Crisis

If the Burnham government is to be a success, then of the many challenges that need to be met, the education, employment and training crisis among young people is right up there. How can we claim to be making the most of our potential as a country when we have more than 1 million 16 to 24 year olds who are NEETs? That is not in education, employment or training. That is one in every eight. And unless there is major intervention, we could be at one in six within five years. The cost to the economy is enormous and the cost to so many individuals likewise. It's no wonder there is a mental health crisis among the young. Alan Milburn, former new Labour cabinet minister, is the man charged with trying to work out what has gone wrong and how we can put it right. And he joins us today for a very special question time. We've had so many questions from listeners and viewers. Why is it happening? And more importantly, what on earth do we do about it? This episode is powered by Fuse Energy. 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Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tramphia. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TramphiaRadio.com. Observe the North American dad. 50s. Great polo collection. He enters his vehicle information on Carvana. An offer appears in minutes. Remarkable. He squints, reads it again, smiles and says, Dang, that's a good offer. The highest form of approval. No haggling. No hassle. No one called him boss. He's still on the couch. Astonishing. Sell your car today on Carvana.com. Pickup fees may apply. Welcome to the rest of this politics question time with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alistair Campbell. So first question for our special session with Alan Milburn is from Susie, who says, what is this issue about needs? What's going on? What's going on here? What's the scale of this problem? Why is it something that we should care about? Well, it's a million young people, or thereabouts, age 16 to 24, who are not in education, employment and training. The number's been rising. It's around 14% of that population. The truth is, Rory, it's been a problem for a very long time. The NEET rate, it's a horrible word, by the way. So if listeners have got a better suggestion than the word NEET, I'd be grateful for it. But it's been around for a very, very long time. The NEET rate has barely been below 10% in 25 years. So this is a problem that is endemic. It's chronic, but it's also different from what it was before. Our generation tends to think of the problem through the youth unemployment sort of lens. This is no longer about youth unemployment. This is about youth detachment. Six in 10 of these young people have never worked. They've never had the chance to be unemployed because they've never been employed. So this is a different phenomenon. And a lot of it is driven by health, particularly mental ill health, but changes in the labor market and so on. So, you know, I talk about a lost generation and the matter is the real risk. And if you've got a million young people potentially rising to a million and a quarter over the course of the next few years, who've got no attachment either to work the world of work or the world of learning that is storing up a huge amount of problems for the future. And am I right in saying there's something actually quite dramatically British about this, that it's a little bit different from what's happening. In other advanced economies. Yes, absolutely. It is. It's we've, I think we've got the second worst neat rate in the whole of Europe. Um, Romania is below, but comparable countries, you know, 50 miles to the West Island has got a neat rate. That's about half a 50 odd miles to the East. Holland has got a neat rate that is about a third. So there's a peculiarly British problem and it's a product of a lot of things. Of course, it's a problem of labor market change, fewer entry, lower jobs, all of that sort of stuff that's been going on. People talk about the decline of the Saturday job, fewer apprenticeships for young people that combined with this mental health crisis has created a perfect storm that is very peculiar to Britain. And we haven't frankly had the right public policy response and not to be candid. Have we had the right response from employers and educators and others in civil society? And there was a, there's a question from Kevin Ingalls who wants to know whether we should be worried. The second part of your report has been postponed until after the budget. When I saw you at the Labour Party conference, the thinking was that this would come, your report would come before the budget. You'd put out some big ideas that would require a lot of funding. Then the funding would be provided, but it now seems that we have the budget and then your report. So I share that concern. Should we be alarmed about this or are you happy? You shouldn't be alarmed. I think you spoke to Andy. I think you spoke to the prime minister. Didn't you about this when you, when you had them on recently, I thought Andy, you know, gave the right answer, which is, look, the truth is in terms of the funding for this, and it will require some investment upfront. Of course it will. If we're going to deal with this, you can get money out the back end, so to speak by getting the benefits bill down. But the only sustainable way of doing that is to get young people into jobs. So they're not on benefit. They're paying their taxes. And therefore over time, the benefits bill could come down. That's the only sustainable way of doing it. But the truth is that the money was only ever going to come through the spending review process, not through the budget. So no, I'm not worried about that at all. You know, it'll come, the report will come in the, in the weeks following John Healey's budget. And you know, from all the conversations that I've had with the prime minister and with the chancellor and indeed with other ministers, look, the government as a whole is signed up to this. They know it's a, it's an existential crisis for the country. And more importantly, it's a visceral issue across the country for, for families, for young people, for communities. And the government would be very well advised, I think, to allow, to align with that concern about what's happening to the future generation of young people. And more importantly, to do something about it. So quick question from John, how do you think the government should explain why this is the problem to people? Why have the government's not spoken about it enough? And how would you, Alan, if you were prime minister explained to people why it really matters, why we should be worried about this? I'm not sure that they haven't spoken about it enough. I mean, both John and Andy in the Labour party conference speeches sort of talked about this issue as being a real issue. It's really interesting. You know, if I, if I do something like a radio phone in most of the calls are not about needs. They tend to be from the parents of young people who have just graduated from university and are struggling to get an entry, a graduate level job. And the interesting thing about this is the neat problem used to be a problem for other people's children. But when you got 15% of these 1 million, who've got a degree, 30%, who've got five good GCSEs, this is a problem for all of us. Yeah. We're all of our children and we're all worried about what's going to happen in the future. Right? And so the reason that I think this is so important politically and not just socially is that there's something going on in society that is a visceral, I was going to say concern, but it's bordering on a fear about what is going to happen to the next generation of young people. And that's more than about employment. It's about, is AI going to eat all the jobs? What about the mental health crisis? Can you get on the housing ladder? The number of first time buyers in decline, all of that and more. And people are, are feeling that the sort of generational promise that we all grew up with, that each generation would do better than the last, but that's a promise that's now being broken. And that's why politics has got to deal with it. Question from Miranda was Tony Blair's education, education, education, a mistake. I I'm guessing what Miranda means by that was the commitment that we had to the goal of 50% of young people going to university. Martha, is it time we rethink traditional education exams for children struggling with the standard system? Take that, take them as a whole, the education debate and the centrality to this. Well, first of all, on the sort of, you know, the government that both you and I, I served under Tony's leadership. Was that a wrong thing to do? No, it wasn't because, you know, the nature of the economy is changing very fast and you're required more skilled labour for the future. It's changing faster than ever. And the truth is, over time, we've become a world leader in higher education. Thank God for that. I'm a chancellor of a great British university at Lancaster, and we want more and more young people being able to get into higher education if they can. We're a world leader in higher education, but the truth is we've become a laggard in technical and vocational education. And the question is, can we do both? And I think we can. And if you look at the low NEET rate countries like Holland or Germany or Denmark, the truth is they've over-invested in vocational education, further education and apprenticeships. And if there was one thing that you were going to change, it would be to put your money as a government and as a state. As a country behind those sort of interventions. Well, we had a question here from Izzy, which aspects the Dutch education system could help reduce the number of NEETs in the UK. I mean, this is getting quite niche because we're getting into other countries, but it certainly seems as you're saying here, Alan, that other European countries have done better. We've talked in the podcast in the past about how remarkable Switzerland seems to be in the range of vocational training it offers. But one thing that you get back, and that people would push back against Izzy, is it's not that easy to redesign a country's education system. It might well be the Netherlands or Switzerland's doing something amazing, but it might also be the case that it would take incredible resources, changes, and time to redesign our system to be like that. And I guess you probably went through a version of this when you were running the NHS, where people would come to you and say, why can't we have a French system? And your answer might be, well, French system might be very good, but redesigning our whole system to become the French system would be a massive expanse in time, right? Yeah. And look, you can't lift and shift other countries, whether it's education, health, or welfare systems, but you can learn. You can learn from them. And certainly when we went to Holland, you know, a few weeks ago, which was a really interesting visit, I'll tell you the thing that was really striking. It was all about the primacy of work. So every single young person that I spoke to, you know, if they were in college, for example, they were all doing some part-time work at the same time. When I spoke to all the kids, every one of them, whilst they've been in school, had been doing a part-time job of some sort in a restaurant or in a hotel or in a bar or in a shop or whatever. So the much famed death of the Saturday job that we talk about here doesn't seem to have happened there. And it shows up in the data. So about 51% of Dutch young people aged 20 and older, whilst they're learning or also earning, the same number in this country is 17%. So there's something about the primacy of work and the purpose of work. And it's not just about the gifting of income that it gives, it's the gifting of a purpose. And so their system allows much greater interplay between, to put it crudely, learning and earning. And our system tends to force you to choose. So you can see that in work experience, for example, far fewer young people- So we really understand how the Dutch system does that and how it's different from our system. So, for example, it places a great premium on work experience. So it's just normal. You know, in our country, the truth is work experience is very haphazard. All too often it relies on who you know rather than what you know. So you go to your mum and dad, you know, they know somebody somewhere, they get you into a decent workplace, but often you've got to organise it yourself as a kid. And that obviously favours those with higher degrees of social capital than others. So we know they're not going to be able to do that. They're going to be able to do it themselves. And that's not going to work. And that's not going to help them. Work experience has got to become a mainstream part of what, in particular, secondary education does. But also in primary education, it's never too early for children to sort of begin to understand what the world of work is about and what the range of opportunities and potential is. So we've got to be opening young people's eyes and not just opening up the opportunities for them at as young an age as possible. We've never, in fact, been able to do that. We've got to be opening young people's eyes and not just opening up the opportunities for them at as young an age as possible. And that's one of the things that I think we need to do. A question here from John, who's a Trip Plus member from Cumbria. How do the findings and recommendations of your report, and that of Professor Peter Fonagy and his colleagues, compare and contrast? And the Fonagy report is one which was published recently about this seeming growing crisis in young people and mental health. Peter Fonagy very much against this notion of the snowflake generation. There are issues to do with diagnosis of autism and ADHD, but essentially he's on the side of young people in this, and he's basically saying we've got an awful lot more to do to help them. How do you see your report fitting with his? So I think Peter and I are very aligned. We've been talking all the way through for the last sort of several months about this, and obviously his report came out very recently and mine will follow. So first of all, Peter's absolutely right. You know, this debate, the thing that angers me most about this whole debate around young people is that somehow they're to blame. It's their fault. They've gone soft. They're the snowflakes. They don't have resilience. They're not trying. They're not putting in effort. Honestly, I go around the countries, you know, honestly, talking to young people and very often meet them when they've been applying sometimes for dozens, sometimes hundreds of jobs over the course of a month, never getting a response, by the way, which is shocking. So that not only dents their confidence, it kills their hope. So it's not a shortage of effort on the part of young people. It's a problem. My view is it's a shortage of opportunity and a shortage of support. And that's what the state and employers together have got to address. Point one, point two, Peter is right to say that distress, anxiety is rising in this generation, maybe for understandable reasons, not one single cause. It'll be multi, it'll be multi-causal, but it's a real thing. I think what we ought to worry about is the rate of diagnosis rising faster than the rate of prevalence. And that's a problem. Diagnosis, as you know, can be a really good thing because it helps people. It helps them sort out their futures and what they need. But it can also be a form of identification for young people, which is too much focused on what they can't do rather than what they could do. And I think this is the general problem in the health and welfare system that the starting question that we often ask is what can't you do? And do you need some income support rather than what could you do? And do you need some employment support? 83% of these young people who are NEET when we've surveyed them want to be in work and training. I've never met a single young person who wants to be NEET. They want to do what we all want to do, which is to get purpose from contributing. But the system is set up in such a way that it ends up trapping them in inactivity rather than helping them to be active, whether that's learning or earning. And that requires, to Rory's earlier question, that requires a fundamental redesign of the system. If you like, it's too much a welfare system and it's not enough a work system. And the lesson to learn from the Dutch in particular is that we've got to put greater primacy on the benefits that work can bring for this generation of young people. It's interesting. I was just looking at the figures and that common mental health disorders among adults in England and the figures I've got seem to have increased from about 15% when you guys were first coming into government to about 20% to 23% today. And for young people, that's a lot of work. And I think that's something that young people, again, an increase from about one in six to about one in four and particular increase, I think, in particular types of diagnosis, ADHD, autism. Tell us a little bit about this, I mean, because you seem to be saying two things, don't you? One is that there are genuine issues here. And I'd be interested in that, you know, why would more people genuinely have these conditions than the case in the past? What does that say about our society? And secondly, why we might end up with diagnoses going up ahead of prevalence? So I think great question and the right one. So look, there'll never be a single root cause analysis answer to that question. Some would say it's about the impact of social media. It's the bedroom generation, a load of young people stuck in their bedrooms. We have a small team going around the country talking to neat young people. And when they start their focus groups, the first question that they ask is, "What time did you go to bed?" And they're like, "I don't know, I didn't go to sleep last night." Two o'clock, three o'clock, four o'clock, five o'clock, sometimes never. So this is a generation that have become trapped, a portion of them become trapped in their bedrooms, stuck on their phones. So that's obviously had some impact, but the world's a pretty anxious place, right? It's not irrational. And there's a lot to worry about and be fearful of. And particularly as we look forward, AI, what's going to happen to the jobs market, all of these things. So some of that is undoubtedly going on, but what we can't have is a situation where we're saying, "Look, the answer to this is to get a diagnosis." And by the way, the way the NHS works is we got this diagnose way to treat model. So you're waiting for your diagnosis. Whilst you're waiting, you're not working. You're getting more anxious, not less. Whilst you're waiting, you tip into welfare. Once you tip into welfare, you can't get out. If you get a health and disability benefit today as a young person, you stand a 50% chance in 15 years' time of still being on that benefit, still being unemployed. So there's a lot of politics about the fiscal costs and the real, and you started, Alastair, with the economic costs and they're huge, but the real cost is in the life chances of young people. It's ruinous for them, the way the system is set up. So when I talk about this, I talk as much as anything else about being a moral crisis for the country. It's a moral crisis, not just a fiscal crisis or an economic one. And that's the reason that politics has got to lean into it. We had a lot of questions about AI. Edward, isn't it time we regulated or set requirements on recruiters and the use of AI in sifting? This relates to your point about not even getting a hearing when they see a CV. Matt, what can the government do to change hiring so my CV is actually seen by a person, not AI? Dean, how can we stop AI taking jobs so rapidly? And I think it's fair to say the tone of the questioning about AI was almost universally alarmed. Yes, and I get that. And obviously, look, there's a balance to be struck here, isn't there? Because AI is going to bring enormous benefits to the world, not least in my heartbeat in health. You can see that if we can get the right alignment between advances in analytical ability and genomic science, we're into a different world of being able to predict and prevent ill health for the first time in human history, rather than simply having to diagnose and treat it. That will be a wonderful thing, not least in drug discovery for cancer and so on and so forth. And some of that is beginning to happen. But there are downsides, as there have been with every single technological advantage that we've seen in human history. And, you know, one of the issues that young people in particular raise is this question of being protocolized, if you like, with their job applications, no longer speaking to a human, and instead simply being sifted out, never getting a response, never getting feedback, feeling about the effort that you put in isn't being recognized, isn't being rewarded. If anything is going to make you depressed and dispirited is that this is ending up in the sort of it's a rejection economy, where people are just rejected out of hand without having any feedback at all. Some employers are beginning to realize that that is not, and are finding ways actually of using AI and technology to be able to provide good answers and support and feedback to young people. So I think there's a lot to learn from that. I think in terms of government generally, I would say, in terms strategically of where we are with AI, we were probably the government is probably behind the pace because the pace of changes is so rapid. It needs to catch up and it needs to think very hard in particular, about where if there is public money involved going forward, it needs to think very hard in particular, about where if there is public money involved going forward, it needs to think very hard in particular, about where if there is companies who are using AI, which has the impact of limiting young people's opportunities in the jobs market. That requires a second look in my view. I guess the company is using the AI, they would say, because it's more productive. And one of the challenges in the British economy traditionally have been we haven't made investments in productivity. We've tended to compared to France or Germany, have a lot of people doing jobs, which could be mechanized, and could be replaced by technology. So companies would say, Whoa, whoa, whoa, are you actually saying if I have an option to use technology to make my company more efficient, reduce my wage bill grow more quickly compete internationally, you're going to say to me that I can't do that. And I'm going to have to hire a human because that will make a big problem if I'm competing with Germany, France or the US. Well, obviously, there are different problems to solve here. And you're right about Britain's productivity rate, of course, you know, we've had this huge problem. And that is in part a consequence, as you know, of being under capitalized and under digitalized as a nation, we simply are not investing enough in capital in infrastructure or in digital. So we need to do that to correct. But I also think there's a sort of moment in time about economic policy here. So I think the argument has been one that capital investment is a really good thing. I'm not sure that we've won a different argument, which is that investment in human capital is as important as is in physical capital. Because unless we're investing in the next generation of young people, then we're storing up an enormous amount of trouble for the future of the British economy. So we estimate in our first report that the drag on Britain's economy in terms of growth amounts to about 125 billion quid a year from not having these young people in work. That's as much as we spent on education every year. So this is about a different, just as there was a different way of having to think about capital investment as being a good long term thing, we've got to think about human investment as being a good long term thing. And the truth is, if we're not investing in the future of young people, we're not really investing in the future of the country, are we? And I speak with feeling about this as someone who's growing older, because I want these young people in work, because I want them not on benefits, I want them paying the taxes so they can look after my job. So this is not about a generation versus a generation. We've got a shared interest in maximizing the contribution that young people can make. How can we convince employers to take a chance on young people? The jobs guarantee funds wages for six months, but this is much harder for smaller businesses. And that question, Alan, comes from Vicky Spratt, who did a brilliant series on Gen Z for the rest is politics. And if you want to go back and listen to that, because it covers a lot of these things that we're talking about. Yeah, she's absolutely right. And look, the truth is, every time an employer, particularly an SME recruits a young person, it's always a risk for a very simple reason. They're unproven. It's not like a 38 year old, if you hire an 18 year old, there's no track record, there's no CV, there's none of that, there's no work experience very often. So we've got to make it less risky and more easy for employers to hire young people. And over the course, not of any everybody bangs on about the minimum wage and national insurance contributions. And by the way, they have had an impact on the youth labor market. There is little doubt about that. But this goes back not over a couple of years, but over very, very many years where the regulatory burden, the fiscal burden, the organizational burden on employees has been rising at the same time as the pastoral burden has been going up. Because if you think about the average young person now coming into work, they're probably carrying more stuff with them. We talked about this mental health issue and ADHD and autism than was the case in the past. So we're asking more of employers, but we're imposing more. I'm sorry, that is an equation that just doesn't add up. It doesn't work. And that means that there are going to be some very difficult issues that the government is going to have to lean into if it is going to get the partnership right with employers. Because the truth is, look, you know, for 40 years, Alistair, public policy has sort of lived a fallacy about this question. It's assumed that if we fix the young people, make them more employable, improve the standards in schools, up their skills, toughen their benefits, that that will be the answer and will solve this problem. Okay. And you might need to do more of all of that. But unless you fix the demand side and ensure that there are employers who want to employ young people, you can fix the supply side as much as you like. These two things have got to go together. And that's why it's got to be a shared national cause, in my view, for employers as well as public policy, if we're going to solve this problem, you know, in its roots, which is about making sure there's opportunities for young people to get into work. Let's take a quick break and then we'll come back for more questions in a second. It prevents on average eight to nine headache days a month versus six to seven for placebo. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. 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Customers who shop at Blinds.com experience excellent customer service, from consultation to installation. Side effects include increased privacy and better sleep. Talk to your partner today and see if Blinds.com is right for you. Visit Blinds.com now to save up to 50% off. During our annual fall blowout sale. Welcome back to the Restless Politics Question Time. Me, Rory Stewart. And we're talking to Alan Milburn, who is in charge of the Neats Review. Lucy, how can we change the narrative that young people are just lazy? She's a young person who feels that our generation thinks that a lot of young people actually just don't want to work. I did a podcast recently. I told you. this at the Labour Party. conference a young woman called from your neck of the woods called riley yes who said can we get rid of the word neats we should be called deets we're desperate for education exactly employment and training so yeah you know and yet they do feel that they they a lot of young people feel that our generation just looks down on them thinks that they're lazy thinks they're entitled thinks they're spoiled it is a very powerful narrative is that something you're going to address in this report or do you think that's just a more societal cultural issue that we've got to think about i actually think we're beginning to win the argument to be honest maybe i'm overly optimistic about it but one of the things that really struck me when we began this work you know getting on three year ago now was precisely that that you had to win an argument about in the great blame game who was to blame here was the fundamental problem that it was young people to blame or was the fundamental problem that there was a systemic issue that was to blame and you know i've come to the very strong view it's a systemic problem it's a problem about how public policy works it doesn't have youth participation at its core all of these systems education health welfare they operate in separate silos the labor market is assumed just to look after itself employers will do their thing we can't have that view if we're going to solve the problem and i think you know i think the best evidence for the fact that young people are not the problem is young people themselves so when we go out and talk to them when we poll them when we survey them the answers are consistent i was talking to the children's commissioner about this the other day rachel desouza and she's done this massive she's got all this data it's incredible you know the number one issue the number one thing and all the things in the world that young people could be asking for more than anything else what's the number one thing a job a job they just want what we always wanted they want a job they want an opportunity to be part of not separate from they don't want to be attached they want to be involved and as i say when we've surveyed needs horrible word 84 of them want to be in work or training the young people are on health and disability benefits 50 of them would say that they could work or be in training now if they were given the right support but they're not what we're doing is we're spending for every 25 quid that we spend on giving income support to young people on benefits we're spending a pound on employment support so the very thing that young people want which is to be in work is the very thing that the state isn't gifting and that's just it's wrong that's a stunning fact for every pound we spend investing in young people going to work with that is costing us 25 to keep those who are not working kind of you know off the breadline like can you give us an indication of what sort of scale of policy recommendations you're going to make that might fix that so the welfare state and its first principle which is it's always got to be there for people when they need it is the right principle but it can't just be a safety net for young people it's got to be a springboard it's got to provide them with a ladder up and what it does instead is it's providing them with an elephant trap for which there's no escape and what we've got to do is in my view fundamentally reshape what the welfare state does with a new emphasis on participation whether that is in work or training or education for young people and what that really means is that the two aspects of the welfare state one is about income support and benefits and the other is about employment support and getting people off benefits we've got to dial down the first and we've got to dial up the second and that is quite a fundamental redesign and it's going to be difficult and in some cases it's going to be quite painful but honestly we can't we can't just keep ignoring this because we're ruining people's life chances by this sort of you write them a check but you don't give them a plan and you don't give them a plan and you don't give them a plan and you don't give them a plan you write them off you sign them off and look at the data look what happens to them not just that their health deteriorates but their ability to earn income and be independent deteriorates you know we did these numbers about if you were neat for six years from 18 to 24 years of age as about a quarter of neat young people are your lifetime earnings loss amount to well over a quarter of a million quid that's what you lose and that's not just an arbitrary number that's a deposit never paid for your house it's holidays never had it's opportunities that you're never going to be able to grasp so we've got to change back to this question about narrative we've got to change the narrative around welfare because if it's all about how much income do you get through benefits today rather than about how do your life chances improve tomorrow then we continue to do what we continue to do and we'll get what we've been getting which is more young people who are trapped on benefits rather than being in work and that's not where they want to be i guess we now need to think about that and i think that's a really good point and i think that's a really good point to get to the real number this which is you're you're hinting at stuff you know there's an elephant trap that they're stuck in you're hinting at painful choices but there's nothing you've said so far that anyone's going to disagree with what what's going to make a difference is you introducing policies that are going to be genuinely radical and there are going to be winners and there are going to be losers and there are going to be politicians screaming and there are going to be lobbyists screaming and there are going to be ngos screaming so explain to us as brutally as possible what the really tough choices are and why they're so difficult for governments and why governments haven't done them for the last 25 years okay so how long have you got so this is not just about first of all it's not just about welfare everybody wants to speak about welfare great and there are some really difficult choices in there and i've sort of you know begun to outline what some of that might be how do we move people from a world where they're gifted a temporary income rather than being gifted a long-term future and and can you start start start with that because again that's quite abstract what what does that mean in practice and because otherwise we won't understand where the opposition is going to come from or where the problems come from so what it means in practice is you come into the system right now and if you are assessed as having a health condition you are put on what's called politely the health journey you get universal credit health or you get pip um and by and large once you get on it you can't get off it okay because the incentives kick in so you know you get you get this income the risk of trying a job is very high so people don't and that's why you get this data point about a 50 chance of young people who get a health and disability benefit still being at on it in 15 years time so what we've got to do in my view is we've got to make sure that young people are being gifted not just an income but an opportunity and critically the support to grab that opportunity so if you think about it for for a young person who comes in say with mild or moderate anxiety or depression or adhd the automatic response at the moment is what's the benefit entitlement that we can give you what we should be saying to young people is what's the help and support that we can give you to enable you to do what you would like to do you know is that a job is it training is an apprenticeship is it a place in further education you know is it some volunteering or community work if you've got learning disability is it a supported internship but that's not the first question that we ask we ask the wrong first question all the time and then we're surprised about the answer so welfare reform is one part of it sorry rory and then but but the other part of it none of this begins at 16 or 18 okay there's a brilliant longitudinal study in bradford called born in bradford which is traced thousands of young people we actually set it up in the new labia's uh in that city looking at what's happened to their life chances from the age of four or five they can predict i'm sorry to say with tragic accuracy who at the age of four or five is likely to be neat at the age of 16 or 17 that is a tragedy and that's about communities and schools and early years so what goes on there is as important as what goes on in welfare so we've got to ask some fundamental questions about is the school system set up right is the curriculum that we're providing for young people is it gifting the adaptability that they are going to need in a world of ai where jobs are going to be pretty fast is it doing that or is it so stuck in its tram lanes around qualifications and examinations but it isn't providing that agility and adaptability that young people are going to need in the future to be successful you can't protect the young against change but what you can do is a better job at ensuring them that they've got the adaptability skills to be able to survive in a world of constant turbulence which is the world they're going to be in but alan we had a we've already had a curriculum review and it didn't really meet the sort of challenge that you're talking about and and also i get the feeling from what you're saying that you're going to be putting forward proposals which andy burnham has indicated he'll be minded you know tonally he was very positive about your work when we talked to him uh last week but you know when kia starmer brought forward the welfare and disability benefit reform bill he had 126 back benches and he said you know i'm not going to be able to do that i'm not going to be able to do that and he said you know i'm not going to be able to do that and he said you know i'm not going to be able to do that organize the rebellion against it it sounds to me like you might actually be bringing forward suggestions for change that go further than some of the things that labour mps voted against yes that is true we will be bringing a fundamental change and reform of the welfare system for the under 25s to the government just as we'll be doing that in the education system the skills system the health system and in labour market and in the health system and in the health system policy, but the reason I believe it's different and Alastair, and the reason that I believe that the Labour government, Labour MPs and Parliament are going to back this is because this is not being framed as some sort of fiscal grab on the welfare bill. It may have important fiscal benefits in that we can reduce the benefits bill over time, but the primary purpose of this is to change not the fiscal trajectory, but the life chances trajectory of a whole generation of young people to make sure that they're getting the opportunities and the support that they need to be able to get into work. And when I have those conversations, in particular, as I have with Pat McFadden, the welfare and pension secretary over the course of these last few months with Labour MPs, this is something that they understand. They know that the current system is not only denuding young people's life chances, it's ruining them. And that's not a future that we should be looking for, for the next generation of the young. So there is going to be a fundamental choice for the country. But honestly, you look at the numbers, it's insane. I mean, this is getting the numbers fiscally, the numbers of young people on benefit. We're going to end up in a world where if we're not careful, on PIP alone, the numbers of young people getting PIP are going to quadruple over the course of 25 years to the year 2037. It's unsustainable, I'm sorry. And it's unsustainable, not because of the fiscal cost, but because of the life chances cost. And can you explain to listeners who don't understand this, what is PIP? And why could it be an elephant trap? And what kind of change could make it better? A PIP is a personal independence payment. It's there to help not just young people, but others who need support with their ill health, their disability to maintain their independence. It could be spent on a whole variety of things. It doesn't have any participation requirements attached to it. And, you know, a lot of young people can use it in order to be able to go out to work or to learn. But that is not a formal part of it. And I think when you look at the overall welfare system, and the benefit system in particular, you see that the percentage of the benefits bill going to young people, which has some sort of support attached to it, to enable young people to have a better life, to have a better life, to be able to get into work, is pretty limited. And so we've, back to that £25, £1 ratio, we've got to fundamentally change that in such a way that the very thing that young people want is the thing that the welfare state is gifting them. And that's not what's happening today. There'll always be a small cohort of young people with severe, enduring, complex needs who are not going to be able to work, who are not going to be able to participate. And in my view, they need more. More support, including more financial support than they're getting at the moment. But for the vast majority of young people, we should start with this proper proposition. If you can work, you should work. The job of the state is to enable that to happen. And that requires more opportunities. And the jobs guarantee and the government's youth guarantee are perfectly good things, but they're a start of a tame. They're not a scale play. And that's what we have got in this report. We've got to look out. What can be done to build on those and to make sure that the practical support for young people, being able to get access to early mental health support, whether digitally or otherwise, being able to get some vocational rehabilitation, being able to get some personal counselling, having a plan that enables you to get off welfare and into work. That's a thing that in other systems in the world with far lower need rates than we have, those are just commonplace. It's just that we've never adopted them. Just to really, get it in my head, we've got a young, let's say, a man called Alan, aged 19, who's on PIPs. Describe some of the challenges they might face, what that elephant trap feels like, and describe the world that you would want Alan to be in, in five years' time. How's he trapped at the moment? And what would the better system be? If he's on a health and disability benefit, you pretty much come into the system and early on, you go through what's called a work capability assessment, which basically decides, can you work or you can't? It's very binary. So maybe Alan comes in with mild ADHD, which by the way, is a fluctuating condition. It's not a permanent one, but the system makes a permanent decision. You're not fit to work. And therefore, what it does is it pays you more, ironically, than if you're not paid to work. If you're not paid to work, you get more support. And by the way, you get more hassle from the job center to make sure that you are looking for work than if you're not. If you're on one of these so-called health journeys, universal credit health or PIP, pretty much you are left on your own. You don't get any support. You don't get any hassle. There's no so-called conditionality attached to the benefits that you get. So you're on your own. And therefore, what happens is you get stuck. And the data is telling us not just that the numbers are very high who get stuck, but they're getting worse and worse and worse over time. So that's what happens to people. And at the same time, these are the very people who are telling us and indeed telling the state, oh, by the way, what we really want is to work. We want to be independent, not dependent. We want to be able to participate, not be inactive. And yet that's the very thing that young people are wanting and very thing that the state isn't providing. And that's why you've got to do this. And I think, you know, I mean, maybe I'm, you know, one of the biggest arguments I ever had with Tony asked, it was when we were arguing about something, probably about health reform or something. And he said to me at one point, so the problem with you, Alan, is that you're too rational for politics. And it's sort of a bit true. I sort of believe in data and analysis and all of that thing. And maybe I'd be overly rational about this and overly optimistic about it. But I think we've just reached a point where we've reached a point where we've reached a point where we've to crescendo on this, where it can't clearly go on as it is. It's not sustainable. It's getting worse, not better. The feel in society amongst families, employers, politicians is, heavens, we've got a generational crisis. And you just feel at that moment that rationality and optimism is going to prevail, because it has to. And my final question, I'd be interested in, this is from the audience. rather than one of our listeners, but I'd be really interested in what you think your past experience has brought to this. And also, just how different it is being a cabinet minister who is regularly seeing the prime minister and has got, you know, really can make decisions and being an outsider, an outsider, insider, outsider, who's been given a job, but ultimately, you're not going to be the decision maker. I just wondered, I'd be really interested in what you think your past experience has brought to this. And also, just how different it is in the dynamic of that, and how you're feeling about that. Yeah, no, it's a really interesting phenomenon, because obviously, this is an independent review. It was set up by the Starmer government, and he has more than embraced it and brought huge energy and commitment to it. And I think it is, I think, as an issue, it's seared on his soul. He feels what I feel about it, that this is visceral. And it's a generational inflection point. And therefore, we've got to deal with it. Yeah. So it's independent. But what we have been doing all the way through this is we've been in active conversation with most cabinet ministers. So with Yvette in health, with Pat in welfare, with Lucy in education, with Lisa in DCMS, with Angela, I was just talking to last week about local government mayors, with John as the chancellor, with Andy. So we're in a conversation with them. And, you know, a lot of the conversation is basically sort of testing, the bounds of what is possible and what is what is feasible, but it's also testing the bounds of what is right. And so this is going to be a bit different from normal independent reviews. So you know what happens, you come along, you produce a report, you're handed over, the government says, oh, that's very interesting. We'll spend six months looking at this. And then six months later, we'll produce a white paper in two years time, we'll have some legislation. That can't work politically for Andy Burnham, because he's a half term prime minister, he's got to get on with it. So the way that we try to set this up is in such a way that when we're in a situation where we're in a situation where we're in a situation produce the report, there won't be a lot of surprises to the government, because we'll have been in an active conversation with them. And therefore, we're going to concertina the time that it takes from creating this thing to implementing it. And from day one, the idea is to get on with implementation. By the way, we've been in conversation with all the other political parties as well. I briefed Kemi and a number of the shadow cabinet three weeks ago, I've spoken to Reform, I spoke to Ed Davey this week from the Liberal Democrats, we've spoken to you know, etc, etc, we will continue to talk to all the political parties, because my view about this is, they will all have different views about how to change this. But what no one is resigning from is the need to change it. And that, in my view, is a good thing. Will you be involved in implementation? We're sort of in a discussion about whether that might be possible or not, I don't know yet. So obviously, you know, it's an issue that I care about, you know, because of where mainly about where I come from in my life. And I think it's a good thing that we're talking about just being very, very lucky. And I just can't stand the thought of a whole generation of young people who are not going to have it. not luck i'm not going to have the opportunity that i had to get on in my in my life so i care about it of course absolutely but we've got to find a way i think of ensuring that what we've done with this review which is you know one on the same time be sort of very independent pushing the government hard and yet trying to find a way of collaborating with government to make it happen that is something i you know we'd love to find a way of continuing in the future you've pointed out that it's been 25 years of this problem so that implies that the blair government the brown government the camera government the may government the johnson government the sunak government didn't manage to deal with starmer government so i'd be interested in why because i guess that might be a clue to why you might fail to what are the things that have stopped government dealing with it and you're a great optimist but if you didn't get this through what do you think are going to be the two you main reasons why you don't manage to get this reform through and why we're still stuck with this problem in five ten years time so i think what happens in politics is in life is that you see a problem and it just looks too big and it becomes almost inevitable and inertia takes over so it's not that there's been ignorance but there has been neglect as i say this is a problem that has gone on for a very very very long time and i think people have struggled with it and i think people have struggled with it and i think people have struggled with it you know it's a huge elephant in the room a million young people god how the hell do you deal with that and the only way of dealing with it in my view and this is what you know when i started this work you know i said to my team look this is going to require a system answer it's not an individual policy answer that's why this report is not going to look like 12 recommendations and let the government pick and choose it's going to feel much more like a white paper or a manifesto for change guys we've got to move the dial fundamentally halfway measures are not going to do the trick here we've been trying that for donkey's years if you think about the history of public policy rory it's littered with youth employment schemes from the yts new deal kickstart and some of them actually been quite good but here's the thing none of them have lasted not one not one because they've not been systemic they've been temporary they've been initiatives they've not been strategic change and so strategic change as all of us know is very very hard for governments up against short-term cycles to be able to do but that's what we've got to do with this this is not a program that is about one or two years it's about 10 and so the question the the risk factors are the obvious ones which is is government and the civil society prepared to stay the course point one point two is this going to become more than the property of just the state and the government because it's not going to be unless you've got employers and mayors and local authorities on board to make this happen then none of it will happen because the truth is labor markets are not national they're local and what we've got to do as andy talks about rewiring the state is to make sure that the powers and accountabilities to make these changes happen happen at a local level not just at a national level so so risk two is can you get all the players on board and risk three in a time of obviously difficult a difficult fiscal position is you know can you get all the players on board you over time put the resources in that are going to be required to invest in apprenticeships and further education and support for young people to enable them to get into work so my answer to that last question is there's a counterfactual which is if you don't invest you'll end up paying a massive price and what we've got too comfortable with in my view in this country is paying the price of failure and being content to do that rather than doing the preventative work that is necessary getting upstream and investing early in order to prevent detachment later so this is a moment this is a choice and it's a big one and what i love about andy's energy and his way of approaching things is that he's come into this as prime minister with a view that actually you know what i am going to do the difficult things for the long term i am going to be prepared to stick it out i am going to be prepared to make some difficult choices this is one of those well that's why you're one in 25 is such an important fact a bit of comms advice alan go big on that thanks man thank you thank you very much for your time honestly it's been great to talk to you as ever um i don't know if you know i don't know how regularly you listen but rory often talks about you as one of his heroes following your earlier appearance on the podcast but thank you for this second one well he's one of my heroes too and so are you alistair of course of course of course yeah no what's true no look thank you so much and thanks for thanks for spending the time on this because it really is a as you you're finding most importantly from your listeners this is a it really is a visceral thing thank you alan very very much thank you speak soon i'm sure we'll have you back soon thanks again all right good to see you cheers guys well there was a word you use at the end there rory which was the m word manifesto uh i mean that was there's a lot going on in this thing you know he talked there about all the ministers that he's been dealing with and i wonder i just wonder look he's where i think he's absolutely right he's got a lot of this is a problem that we've been sitting around with too long it's grown too big something big has to happen to deal with it but secondly that's why i was so interested interested in whether he could be whether you can do this from outside because this is going to require so much drive within government across government to make it happen um it's a big big big big project this yeah i mean one of the things that's difficult as an outsider to completely understand is and i wonder whether some listeners will feel this is deciphering where the really tough painful decisions are going to be i mean there was am i right that what he's hinting at is it's basically going to be more difficult for somebody to get an unconditional pip that if you have adhd you're not going to be able to sit on this disability payment but the whole system is going to be changed so that and and so i guess that's where the objection is going to come from which is that constituents are going to be going to their members of parliament pretty quickly and saying oi somebody's just taken away my disability payment i've got a serious condition how the hell am i expected to work and i i you know i saw that because i saw this when the tories tried changes to some of the benefit systems in 2010 2012 i think i talked to you about it i had you know blind people coming into my surgery saying they've just taken away my disability payment because somebody and remember it's not you know it's not a perfect system it's in the end some somebody a nurse a doctor a contractor out there in the world meeting with a young person and deciding whether or not they're eligible and there's a really complicated incentive system going on here where i guess if you're the young person you probably want the reassurance that you have a backup that if things go wrong people recognize that you have a disability and therefore you're going to get some payment from state if you don't get a job but at the same time alan's saying that that's an elephant trap am i right that's the elephant trap he's talking about yeah absolutely yeah you get trapped in the system and it becomes i mean i it's the other thing i think is interesting is if i read what pat mcfadden was saying at the labour party conference what pat mcfadden's been saying in his public statements and articles he's writing i do it is interesting this thing where he's clearly working to some extent hand in glove with ministers trying to push an agenda i was very interested in this thing he said that he thinks the mp get it this time uh that is where this thing is going to get very very severely tested i think because as you say you said there were winners and losers and we all know that when it comes to something like the welfare state you know the losers can they get a lot of attention rightly they get a lot of attention well and of course it's it's it's these are labour mps right so if what they are is people on low incomes uh who are your constituents who suddenly had their benefits come in and they're not going to get a lot of attention and they're not going to get a lot of and from are being driven into more poverty it's not going to be very surprising that if you're a labour mp you're going to be like whoa whoa this is not what i signed up for and they're not going to buy in necessarily to the story oh well it'll be fine for 19 year old alan because he's gonna find his way into a great job they're going to be saying no no no no alan's got a serious mental health condition he can't really be expected to work there's no good work available i mean i was interested in the questions that we got actually because they weren't and i i sort of interested what you think about the disaster very few of the questions we received is what are the tough choices going to be how are the benefits going to be cut how is this going to work the questions were how can we change the narrative that young people are just lazy how much this phenomenon is due to boomers not retiring what's the point of getting a degree if i'll still be economically invisible do you need to address the fact a little joy or reward in most jobs these days we've forgotten to fix toxic work environments so a lot of the questions were not people saying this is a really tough public policy choice where we're going to have to cut the welfare bill and radically change the incentives for young people to go into work they were questions from young people talking about how difficult it is to get a job the ai questions were partly about that too weren't they look i think it's interesting how he's done this report in these two stages but the i'm guessing that the second report which we were expecting for the budget now coming out of the budget is going to be about how we're going to address the issue of the government and how we're going to address the issue of the government and afterwards is going to be where this bigger argument is then laid out alongside some difficult policy choices that the government is going to have to face if only if this conference i was out in edinburgh this morning there was somebody there who said that they thought that the alan milburn's niche report was going to be the most semi-automatic report that we were going to have moment of this government's life. We'll see whether that's the case. Well, I mean, I think the explosion that's coming is that at the moment, there will be a lot of enthusiasm and support from young people who think this is a report that's going to understand young people, understand how tough it is to get a job, make it easier for them to get a job, deal with the toxic work environments and help them. But actually, what they're going to see in policy terms is something that's not going to feel like that to them. In the short term, it's going to feel to them as though, wait a sec, this is not what I was expecting. This is actually about the government cutting my benefits, cutting the support I'm getting and telling me that they're putting more money into what presumably will be people delivering youth training schemes, incentives to employers, stuff to try to get you a job. And if I was a young person, I'd be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, I've had my benefits. And all this money's gone to some mysterious organization running a youth training scheme, providing me with training. And it's not really dealing with either my mental health issues or the fact that I don't like these jobs I'm being offered. There we are. Right. Well, thank you to Alan Milburn. Thank you to all of you who wrote in your questions. And we'll be doing more of these sort of question time specials, no doubt, in the future. But meanwhile, we'll see you soon. See you very soon. Bye-bye. We just moved into our new house and I didn't realize just how close we were to the neighbors. Customers who shop at Blinds.com experience excellent customer service from consultation to installation. Visit Blinds.com now to save up to 50% off site-wide during our annual fall blowout sale. And with BJ's gas, she gets there for less. They call me the road warrior. This is your home, road warrior mom. Home of the save. 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