How to Reach the Unreachable Voter

U.S. voters abroad have you got your ballot yet? All states are now sending ballots to overseas voters. So if you want to vote this year, you should request your ballot right away. Go to votefromabroad.org and click "Request My Ballot". Ask to receive it by email. Questions? Ask our support team directly. Don't miss this chance to shape the future. Don't delay. Votefromabroad.org. Welcome to Potsade, America. I'm Dan Flafer. Today I'm joined by Daniel Butterfield, the Executive Director of Priority's USA, one of the largest, most important, super PACs in Democratic politics. Priority's USA does a lot of essential digital work in the party, building infrastructure, investing in research and data, and running ads to reach the voters' campaigns often struggled to reach. They're in the midst of a massive study about how less engaged voters are getting their information on Tic-Tac, YouTube, Instagram, and even AI chatbots. The platforms will decide the 2028 election whether we like it or not. Priorities has already started a $30 million campaign to define the 2028 Republicans by JD fans and Marco Rubio. And I invited Daniel on the podcast to unpack that research and talk about what they've learned. We dove into their findings, talked about how the media environment has changed since the 2024 election, and broke down some of the ads they're already running. It was a great conversation, and we'll get to it in a minute. But before we do, please consider becoming a pain subscriber to friends of the pod. Subscribers get access to the single best show produced at Crooked Media, Polar Coaster, with me, Dan Fifer. I was forced to say that I'm a producer, but I really do like the show, and I think you'll like it too. This week on Polar Coaster, we discussed Angie Nixon's upset win in Florida, new polling in the Michigan center race, and a strange fake polling scandal on the L.A. Mayoral race. And while I have you out there subscribing to truly great content, check out my substock message box where I break down what is happening in politics. You can find it all at Crooked.com/YouYesWeDan, or subscribe to friends of the pod at Crooked.com/Friends. All right, here's my conversation with Daniel Butterfield. Daniel Butterfield, welcome to Podsave America. Thanks for having me. All right, so excited to talk to you. Thanks for doing this. Priorities has been working on a whole bunch of things that are really interesting to me. I want to talk to you about the study you've done on less politically engaged voters. I want to talk to you about how you're thinking about ads. And I really want to talk to you about why you are already spending money to try to win the 2028 election in the middle of the 2026 election. We're going to do all of that. I'm going to level set up a couple things first. For people who've been around politics as long as I have, they remember Priority's USA is sort of the Democratic Super PAC, spending tens of millions of dollars to elect Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton's spending money for Joe Biden. That's not what Priority's USA is now. So maybe talk a little bit about who you are and what you guys are doing. So our audience understands. Yeah, so I joined the Priority's USA team back in 2017. Fresh off the Hillary Clinton campaign. Priorities, you know, up until that point had been operating like you said, as a presidential Super PAC. But in the aftermath of 2016, one of the most urgent kind of quickest realizations that folks had about why we lost was just how little Democrats had invested on digital compared to television. And so the Priority's team got some funding to kind of stay open beyond the presidential and really investigate why that is. So that's when I joined the team. I became a digital director alongside a bunch of other really smart people. And we kind of made it our mission to really diagnose and understand why the Democratic Party is so severely underinvest in digital. But then also like to actually close the gap to raise a bunch of money to spend on digital. And so flash forward to where we are today. I like to say that we are anchored as a presidential organization. But we really have gotten to a point where we're using the midterm elections and special elections to really prepare and get better and innovate and try new things. So that by the time the next presidential election rolls around, we're like that much more ready for it. So that's how I would think about us today. I know the presidential elections seem like a million years away for a lot of people. But as I like to point out that if we follow the previous schedule, one exactly one year from now, there will be Democrats and Republicans on stage in debates actually. The thing will be often running the day after the midterms. So people should be prepared for that. And so just also to level set here, you know, as you point out like in 2017, you're already about the digital gap in working on it. After the 2024 election, there was this sort of widespread consensus that Democrats had once again been outmaneuver digitally. There's all the talk about all the podcasts that Trump did and how they were using the internet to target these less engaged voters. You know, I think that there was a general sincerity among a lot of people in the party to try to close the gap. You don't know if they didn't know exactly how to do it or how the gap got there. 18 months after that election, where do you see things? Has the party made real improvements here? How much work needs to be done? Yeah, I mean, we obviously have made improvements, but we're not where we need to be, right? I think in the aftermath of 2016, it was quite easy to say, wow, Democrats are really not spending anything on digital. In the aftermath of 2024, Democrats outspent Republicans two to one on digital. So it's no longer a numbers game. It's actually like several layers below the surface, which makes it a lot more difficult to diagnose and solve. And that's why, you know, it's no surprise that the last couple of years, post 2024, have been a really tough set of fundraising years for Democrats, because the solutions to why we lost in 2024 really require us to dive deep and solve some bigger cultural problems that we have ingrained in our party. And so, you know, I think if I'm going to diagnose that problem in one sentence, my read is that while Democrats are spending a lot more money on digital than they were back in 2016, we're still running digital programs to mirror what goes on on television. And I think that's the crux of the problem that I'm seeing today. Can you say a little bit more about what that means? Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, 20 years ago, when a campaign was setting up to reach voters, they had a handful of options of how they were going to do that. They could buy, you know, broadcast cable television points, they could knock doors, build an organizing program, send out mail pieces. Digital really wasn't on the table. When you're setting out to, you know, run a TV program, you're picking out DMAs that are efficient based on where your state or congressional district is. You're building really fancy models to determine which door I'm going to knock in, which door I'm going to skip. You're, you know, building mail pieces that, you know, same thing. You're going to mail to one house and not to another. But I think that what we have really failed to realize is that digital opens up so many more possibilities to be able to reach voters in ways that lead so much far beyond where you live, what your DMA is, and what your voter file score is. And we're really failing to lean into the creativity that digital affords us when we do that. And I think put, put in a much simpler way, um, nine out of the 10 top YouTube ads in 2024, were just 30 second ads that ran on TV first. So we are quite literally, practically, taking 30 second ads that we run on TV, and then putting them on YouTube and expecting people to watch them. And that is quite literally lighting money on fire. I mean, I've been struck by this and, you know, as you know, we've been sort of both together and separately screaming about this for a long time. Yeah. Anyone who watches YouTube would understand that a TV commercial run on YouTube makes no sense. It would be like someone putting a print ad on your television. When you were watching it, then you just be supposed to read it. And there are obviously incredibly smart people working in digital spaces across the party, in the Harris campaign and some of these super PACs, um, in the Biden campaign in 2020, what accounts for the fact that there's, we're sort of like jamming this anachronistic square peg into a much more modern round hole? I mean, I think I cannot adequately answer this question without addressing the consultant driven nature of decision. Go, go, I mean, let's get right into it. Yes. Right. Like, it is just, if you want to look at profit margins for a second, what I'm basically declaring that a campaign should do costs a lot more than what it costs around a TV campaign. So that such that if I'm asking a campaign to cut 20 ads to put on the internet, instead of one ad to ship to everyone, that is obviously going to eat into profit margins. And, you know, the folks that have been around for a really long time are going to resist that. So I think that the pressure has to come from a different place. That's part of what priority sees as its role in this ecosystem is pushing the hard questions and trying to get past profit margins as the core goal. It's ridiculous that we even have to have that conversation. But it's also part of why when I joined the team in 2017 and was off with the job as digital director, part of my negotiation was I want to build an in-house team. Because I don't want to have to worry about working with a set of consultants that's ultimately going to be trying to pay the bills. I want to hire people that are purely focused on trying new things, innovating, and that has to be their number one focus. You know, I don't want to get on here and say like consultants are in it for the right reasons, right? So many Democratic consultants want to win these elections, but they also have to pay bills. And when you are forced to make decisions between paying bills and, you know, winning elections, that's naturally going to create a attention that we just can't ignore. But anyway, all of that to say, you know, I think it is extremely easy to look at the reach numbers that YouTube affords, where any given week, 80, 90% of voters are reachable on YouTube, and to say, oh, that's just an extension of TV. Just like TV is a one size fits all, reach broadcasts, we literally use the word broadcast to describe TV. If you're treating YouTube like a broadcast channel, though, you're just missing the point, right? I have a lot of good friends that, you know, work on the Google sales team, love them to death. But their sales pitch is YouTube is TV. I just fundamentally disagree with that, right? Like if you are treating it like a broadcast channel, you are fully missing the point. The YouTube is TV thing. And I'm going to get to your study in a minute, but you've got me down a rabbit hole. And I knew that would happen in this conversation, because this is a issue of particularly nerdy interest for me. I mean, YouTube is TV, and this is a thing I've done the round since 2024 meeting with various politicians. And I've tried to explain to them, and I use YouTube is TV for the purpose of understanding that for people to actually such as these politicians understand that young voters watch YouTube on their TV, right? If they come home, they turn it on. And what's different is they're not looking at TV guide or the literal TV guide that shows up in your exfinity or cable thing is that the algorithm is showing them things based on, you know, a lot of data mining and the things that subscribe to. But where the point you're making is where the analogy fails is that it is not consumed in the same way. And sort of like, you can't just put a TV show on YouTube, which is why YouTube does not invest in script and television. Like, there's like a lingua franca of it, and if the ads, if you're running TV ads on YouTube, even if it's being watched on a literal television, that's not what people are expecting, so they are more likely to dismiss it. Is that right? Yeah, just I think it's an attention span problem, right? And it's a function of, you know, if someone is sitting to, and you're correct that a majority of people when they're using YouTube are literally using watching it on a smart TV. And that is different than YouTube TV, which is like a subscription service that people pay for. It's literally YouTube.com being streamed on a television device. But like, how many of those people are also holding their smartphone and playing games? Like, I fit into that category. Like, it is extremely tough to get me to pay attention to one screen, and I know I'm not alone in that situation. So, so you both have an attention span challenge, and then you also have a challenge slash opportunity that people are using YouTube in very different ways. It's, it's a battleground, right? It's people listening to podcasts. It is people playing games, is people watching clips that their friends send them. Like, it is people listening to music. It's just, it's so many different things that if we're going to try to squeeze it into to one category, we're really, we're really feeling. And this, this does open up a really good, you know, segue to, to the whole lot of the work that that Perry is doing to. Yeah, that's exactly where we want to go, yeah. To really understand, like, you know, I'm, I'm pretty tired of media consumption research. Looking like, let's slap a question to the end of a poll and ask how many people are watching YouTube? I need to know much, many, many more details than, than that to really understand how to, how to craft a media strategy. So, that is the work that Perry has been investing in since 2024 wrap, actually, way before 2020. We were doing this in the middle of 2022, and that's, you know, the work that we're excited to, to chat about. Yeah. So, you've, like I said, you've been studying how people actually get information in this crazy insane road we live in, and that's just how people like you and I can information because we kind of get information. And we could have always got information like we're going to sources to get it. We're following politics closely, but, you know, as we've talked about sort of endlessly on this podcast in elsewhere since 2024 is the swing voter is not necessarily a well-informed centrist white man from Wisconsin. It is someone who doesn't pay attention to politics and is sort of kind of, you know, surfing the news at best. And we're very, we're not very good at reaching people or understanding those people. So you've been looking at them. So before we get into, like, what you actually found, can you get walk us through the process by which you try to understand the media habits of these less politically engaged individuals? Yeah. Absolutely. But just to underscore what you just said in our post 2024 research, we actually found that beyond age demographic geographic indicators that your consumption of YouTube was more predictive of your vote choice and your vote swing from 20 to 24 than than anything else. Meaning that you were more likely to vote for Trump, the more YouTube you watched. Exactly. So basically the cross-dab was that men, men who were watching more than three hours of YouTube, had some of the highest swing of any other, you know, cross-dab that we were looking at. And that, it also applies to people who are listening to podcasts. It also applies to women. It's just, it's pretty consistent that your internet consumption patterns are very predictive of how much you swung from a persuasion standpoint. So our team, you know, took that information and said, okay, like, we got to be media consultants for the 21st century. Because if no one else is going to do it, like, let's let us step up and play that role. And so we basically have this project that our team has been working on that really takes a look at. We have an always on survey operation where it's actually really cool. We actually, in a normal kind of survey environment, we pay people to send us a screenshot of their screen time apps. I'm sure you guys have like logged in to see, like, how much time you spend on Twitter every single day. But we're actually paying people to send us a screenshot of that and then validating it against what they self report to where they spend time. And then using that as an understanding of what new apps are popping that should be on our radar. How much are, is YouTube consumption changing over the summer? How much are people, you know, changing their subscriptions between Hulu and Peacock depending on, you know, what reality TV show is on, which is very common in the thing that I think our team was highly surprised to see how much people change up their subscriptions, which is very, you know, good information. So basically part one is an always on survey operation to just get a baseline of, like, where are people spending time? We then do, kind of, quarterly, sometimes monthly deep dives on specific topics that our team wants to dig into. So last summer, we did a deep dive on audio consumption to really understand specifically how are people consuming music, podcasts, et cetera, what platform, what are some patterns that we can, you know, take into account from a media planning perspective. And we also acquire, you know, third-party data that often is very, kind of, observational and behavioral in nature so that we can actually observe what people are doing. And the search data that Peter Hamby wrote about over the weekend is that third category where we paid to acquire people's search data. And then we did a really long-term kind of study to kind of better understand what patterns we could pick up there. Positive America is brought to you by Haya. Back to school season is here again, and we want to give your kids their best shot to be prepared for the new academic year ahead. That includes their health and wellness. That's exactly why Haya exists to give parents a real solution in a market flooded with kids' vitamins, a prioritize candy like appeal over actual nutrition. Some children's vitamins on the market today contain up to seven grams of sugar per serving and are stuffed with artificial additives and petroleum-based dyes. Haya took the opposite approach, zero sugar, zero gummy additives, just clean nutrition. Haya looked at what modern kids are actually eating or not eating, and formulated around those specific nutritional gaps. 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Thanks to wildelaskin' company for sponsoring this episode. (upbeat music) - Do you speak just in a little more detail about the search data, like what you were looking for, how many people it was, and then we can get to what you found? - Yeah, absolutely. So anyone that's ever like, talked to me in my life, knows that I'm particularly obsessed with search behavior as a proxy for understanding where voters are at. I think it's the single most interesting thing that you can do to observe where someone's head is at. It is literally knocking on someone's door, and then being able to say to you, hey, I'm really interested in immigration. You can then have a conversation with them about immigration. They're quite literally telling you what they're interested in. And so for a long time, I've just been really interested in how can we do more to understand people's search behavior, how can we use it, how can we learn from it, et cetera. So we worked with a third party data provider to acquire and pay for a set of people who basically opted in to share their behavioral data with this data provider. So basically, you could go to your YouTube account right now and say, download my history. You could do the same thing on Twitter. I actually highly recommend it. It's very entertaining. You download your history, upload it to cloud, tell it to give you some analysis. It is better than therapy in a lot of ways. Or at least say maybe cloud will tell you to go to therapy after reading it. Yeah, potentially. I'll call it complimentary to therapy. But anyway, so we did that with a provider that was able to send us search behavior across the major kind of traditional search engines, Google being the most predominant one. But also Gemini, Chatchee, BT, and then some of the major social media engines, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, et cetera. And so our team, it was about 6 million searches. We did it across two different time periods. The first was the last couple of months of 2024. And then the second time period was a chunk of 2025. We wanted to be able to look at it into chunks. Our team spent a couple of weeks really analyzing the data. It was a huge undertaking to take a look at the trends. We definitely would not have been able to do this project if our team wasn't fully enabling AI to do a lot of the heavy lifting in the work. We are a very-- let's lean into AI organization at priorities. And we walked away with, unsurprisingly, a huge number of insights that our team is currently using to both run programs that we're running here in 26, but also looking ahead to 2028. So yeah, happy to share more about what we learned. Before we get to the actual findings, the context of search in this day and age is very interesting, because for most of the last 20 years, search meant one thing and one thing only. For the people that being would not-- Yes, there was a small handful of big people out there who used it. And we had net scapeids. We had some things earlier in the area. Bing was actually a highly effective fundraising platform on this presidential campaign that I worked on. Yes, very-- Well, there you go. I am learning something brand new today. But it meant via Google or Bing. Searching the web. That's something very, very different now, as particularly as the social media-- and I'm going to get to AI later on in this conversation. But as the social media platforms become more places where people sort of live, particularly TikTok and Instagram, how are you thinking about how do you-- I assume people are searching for the same thing that people used to search Google for a few years ago are now searching on Instagram or TikTok or elsewhere, or are there differences in those search? What did you find? Yeah, I think Google is still king. Let's just be really clear. Google is still a huge market share, predominant market share. And Google makes the majority of their money off of search not YouTube. Let's just name that. They were going to do everything they can to not lose that spot in the market. But even though as people are spending more and more time online, I like to think about it. And this comes into play a lot. When you're putting together a media plan, as people spend more time online, they're just doing more. You are both using Instagram and TikTok and search every day instead of picking between them. And so I think what we are starting to see is that the behaviors between these different search engines are different, which is a really helpful learning. People are going to Google to really fact check and get basic information. But then they're going to chat to BT to really put together robust plans and really go back and forth. Whereas Instagram, TikTok, it can become a little bit more entertaining in nature. So I like to think about it less of a binary choice that people are making between these different platforms. Obviously, there are trends in that direction. But it's more about how are people using these different platforms for different reasons. The thing I will say that I think is a really important piece of the learning here is, like I said, Google is still top of the list. I think our party is very interested in understanding people's relationships to chatbots and AI as a search engine. That is incredibly important, and it's changing rapidly. But people using YouTube as a search engine is incredibly under-discussed. I think that YouTube is the number two search engine behind Google. Those data sets are obviously integrated under one umbrella. And it's a place that I think we definitely don't spend enough time thinking about. And we can actually do a lot more there than we can on chatbots. So what do you say do more? Because you can manipulate-- You can manipulate and run ads and produce video content that appears when someone searches for a topic that you want to appear on. We know for a fact that AEO is a hot topic right now, people really want to understand how they can influence a search result in a chatbot. But YouTube search has been around for such a long time. It's a lot easier to manipulate what comes up when someone searches for something on YouTube in a way that I think the Democratic Party needs to be spending a lot more time producing video than they do manipulating chatbot results. It's not a choice. It's not a false choice. But I think we've got to spend more time with it. I am of a certain generation, because I'm old, where YouTube is not the same to me. I didn't grow up using YouTube, obviously. I didn't really grow up at the internet. We're going to have to discuss that here. And-- but I think a lot of people who are in politics, many of them are my age and older in our gerontocracy. Don't fully understand just how big YouTube is, that it's the biggest video platform in the world, the biggest music platform in the world. It's bigger than Spotify and music. It's better than Apple Podcasts, or Spotify, as a podcast platform. It is just this gigantic thing that dominates people's lives. And I don't think people really get that. But let's get to what you found about, well, when you were analyzing this data, what are the major insights you've got? Yeah, so I think the number one headline is that people are not searching for anything political. Of the 6 million searches that we acquired, less than 100,000 were political, or even politically adjacent. The reality is, and I think the thing that keeps the team at priorities, USA up at night, but also motivates our work, is that people just are thinking about politics. And we have to really-- if we don't understand that, going into crafting a campaign, we're really going to miss the mark on how do we actually then reach someone. So I think in doing our analysis, we found a lot of really awesome patterns around when people do search for politics. It's eye-opening for our team around how soon out from the election are people starting to search for their polling location. When are they searching for information about their candidates? Our team is quite literally right now. It's a Friday afternoon. That is literally what they're working on to craft our 2026 campaigns. But more importantly, it's opening our eyes, I think, to the thing that I'm the most excited about and nerding out about is this category of what we're calling politically adjacent categories that are a really awesome entry point for us to be having relevant conversations with people when they aren't thinking about politics. But they're one step away from thinking about politics. And let me just give you an analogy on this really quick, because I think it's helpful at landing why this is important. I spent a lot of time thinking about how can we, as political advertisers, compare ourselves to corporate advertisers, because it's a billion-dollar industry. And there's a lot that we can learn from people that are quite literally doing similar work to us. But at the end of the day, I said this to Peter, but Nike knows that you're training for a marathon, and they're using that information to sell you shoes at that particular moment. Target knows that you are pregnant probably before you do. There was that story that came out on that a couple years ago. My algorithm currently knows that I'm shopping for false shoes. And it is quite helpful to me, and I actually really appreciate the algorithm for knowing exactly what I want. The reality is that advertising writ large is very contextually relevant and very genuinely helpful in a lot of ways. And that political advertising is not that. Political advertising is just interruptive. We show up in the most random moments and want to interrupt your day. And we got to get closer to the corporate model. We got to create campaigns that are actually relevant to someone's day and, you know, behaviorally. I think we can take a closer look at where people are actually interested and then create those connective points between what they're interested in and how we can shift the conversation to politics and have a million ideas of what that looks like that I'm happy to dive into. Yeah, so I want to, like, you raised this very, and I was very struck by that quote from you. I got to get started. Okay, I got to get paid by Nike at some point. That's right. No free ads is a rule we have. Everyone who spends any time on the internet understands that your phone is tracking everything you do and then giving you, serving you information adds about that very thing that you point out, right? Like, you have kids, it knows you have kids, back to school comes, it's back to school stuff, right? It's they know you've searched Disneyland on the internet, now you're going to get a bunch of Disney content. You're going to get advertised in a million different ways through, you know, on Instagram, through TikTok, on your, you know, in your Gmail, you're going to get Disneyland ads for a writer from travel comes to whatever else. If the corporate model is behavioral based advertising, what is the political model been to date? What is that based on? It's the same conversation we just had. It's based on your geography and your voter file score. I think 90 plus percent of Democratic advertising investments to date have been based on where you live, not as a proxy for, you know, you being close to a data center or on a university campus, but just how likely am I if I were to throw a dart to reach a black voter or reach a college student? Like, that it is based on density and efficiency for the most part. That's like how people use geography to target. And then when it comes to voter file, it's just, you know, the ease of someone is building you a model. They're telling you which voter you should knock and which voter you shouldn't, which voter you should mail and which you shouldn't. And digital practitioners have been told for a really long time, hey, can you target this list of voters that we think is important? There's technology that exists to be able to upload an offline list and match it to the internet, but that's just completely, you know, ignoring every online signal that you can add to make sure that that, you know, becomes, becomes relevant to the end user. So yeah, status quo is, I would say, geography and voter file are like the primary drivers of current targeting and we're out here screaming, there's more to it than that. Is identity part of that as well, at least like in a broad base way? Well, especially if you're back in the days when you're advertising on Facebook where you would be, you know, targeting people of a certain demographic group or certain age group that you would be reaching, but it's not tied to any specific knowledge about what those people care about, correct? Yeah, I would say like age and demographic come into play a lot probably more rarely than you would think, right? Like, I think when I was on the Obama campaign in 2012, we definitely had age and gender tracks. We had demographic tracks layered on top of kind of our broadcast track, but in a small congressional race, like I think that's a lot more rare than you might expect. And I'm not out here saying that age demo geographic targeting isn't important. It's highly critical. I think we're just saying that the next step beyond that of really trying to understand how to reach someone based on things that we're not necessarily observing offline, but instead online, we should be pushing ourselves to think in that category because it's just going to make it's going to make us better advertisers. Is cost prohibitive here? Or is that a problem? Obviously, much more expensive to market to someone based on specific targeted information about their online presence than just targeting a group who happened to live in a certain zip code? Not in a major way. I mean, I think Facebook, their CPMs get a lot lower when you kind of give them free will to pick out who you want them to reach. So when you're running a campaign on Facebook and you're saying as long as someone cares about fitness, go ahead and reach them. That gives them a lot more free will to target folks. Then if you were to upload a file and say I only want to target these 100,000 people, so that does impact the CPM, but in a helpful way. We have a lot of questions and we're doing a lot of research at priorities around just how do you kind of kind of validate that data that you get on places like Facebook YouTube. But you know, I would say cost, if someone's bringing up costs as an excuse, not to do a campaign like this, they're probably not fully grasping what we're talking about. Obviously, I think what I am describing here does require incremental cost from a production standpoint. I think the model we are describing certainly requires you to make many, many more ads than a TV once I spit salt program. But I also think there's a ton more that we can be doing on the kind of AI automation side to make the production process faster easier that actually does nothing to do with AI Slop. You can automate the backend without making the front end of it AI driven. But like, can we live in a world where using the voter file, we've identified a set of target voters in a swing state. And we now know that this swing voter has been searching, this is creepy, to a lot of people has been searching on the internet about cyclospora and food recalls. And then could you then get a presidential, a well-funded, well-run, digitally forward presidential campaign, then target that voter with an ad in 2028 that said, you know, in the Trump Vance Administrative Presumption, the Vance Assembly and the Trump Vance Administration, they cut all the funding which led to these bluebird recalls or let us recalls or whatever else. Like is that something that can be done at scale? So Google doesn't allow you to use offline data to do targeting. They got rid of that, I think it was 2019. But everything else that you described, yes, would be doable. I think though the reason that I care a little bit less about the front end, like here's the voters I particularly care about is think about how a model is built, right? You take a look at someone's vote history and then you ask them a bunch of questions in a survey to infer how they're going to you know, how they're going to vote and you apply that to a broader set of voters and you make predictions about how you think someone's going to vote based on them, being male, going to church, reading books on the weekend, whatever it is. Like there's a bunch of really smart data people out there that are building really smart models. I think what we are saying though is in addition to asking someone a survey question to inform a model, what if you just observe what they do instead? Right? Like how can we get to a point where we are, you know, not relying on offline data to predict where someone is and instead just, you know, if someone's searching for whether their lettuce is contaminated, I don't really care how they voted in 2020. I think that ad is probably quite relevant to them. So, and you don't even pay for an ad until someone clicks on it. So why don't we just try and get rid of the kind of front end marker to begin with? Does that make sense? Okay, let's get into just sort of, all right, so we got a bunch of these voters who are less politically engaged. You've looked at, you know, of the 6 million searches you had, you know, they were rolling percentage of them were non-political. What are these theoretically non-political people doing on the internet? Where are they? What are they interested in? Yeah, so one of the most interesting remarkable findings that we saw is just how much people are, you know, searching for, you know, what we're calling kind of public benefit programs. People searching for how to download a fast fa form, how to apply for Medicaid, what is Medicaid called in my state? Those are all, I think, it's a very like large percentage of the searches that we are seeing in that kind of politically adjacent field. And it's a really important signal to us that someone who is searching for a fast fa form should probably fall into a particular bucket of communication that looks different than someone who's searching for whether their lettuce is contaminated. I think that was the most remarkable finding that that I saw that I think we're, you know, eager to act on. Pots of America is brought to you by HIMS. ED is more common than guys talk about. The good news, getting real treatment is simple and through HIMS is 100% online. 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SilDenifil is the generic version of Viagra. Viagra is a registered trademark of Viatras specialty LLC hymns is not affiliated with or endorsed by Viatras. U.S. Voters abroad. Have you got your ballot yet? Go to votefromabroad.org and click request my ballot as to receive it by email. Questions? Don't delay. Vote from abroad.org. Blanclay our docu series exploring the people and forces shaping the south is back. Newsflash the south is the new political epicenter of the country. Democrats are way on their heels in this region, but Republicans are going through their own reckoning in the South too. We're in the final stretch of the midterms and the political map has only gotten more competitive with new states and districts emerging as potential flips. So we thought it was time to get back out on the road and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ground. I'm Aaron Haines, journalist and expert on all things Southern politics and I'm Jennifer Palmerry, former White House communications director. Tune in on Mondays to Longplay Series on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. The grand mystery, right? It's like, I know where you get your information. You know where someone like me gets my information. How, but but all these people who pay no attention to politics like don't actively pay attention to politics are forming political opinions, right? Or like, or even if they're very broad, they have a general sense of how they feel about political figures, political issues, things that happen in the news. We know what or what did you learn about where those people are actually like, where is that information coming from? How are they running into it in this crazy media ecosystem? For sure. So, you know, I think a stat that I like to throw out and remind myself of every day is that 54 percent of voters writ large are just not paying attention to news at all. They're trying to avoid it mostly. And so if they're not paying attention to news, how are they experiencing politics? I think we like to ask ourselves that question to really shape kind of what are the campaigns that we're going to put together to reach them. And, you know, I think a lot of democratic investment over the last couple of years has has focused on how do we make the news sexier, easier to reach, easier to access. There's nothing wrong with that endeavor. But I think it's it's going to have its limits if there's just if there's a swath of people that just really don't want to pay attention to news at all. And so we want to reach those voters. We have to do it in a different way. We have to have different cultural entry points. I think you hear Democrats say a lot like we need to be culture first. I'm frustrated that I don't actually feel like we have a next step to that question. I've never actually heard out of quit, you know, ideas of what that looks like. And so I think part of the research that parties has been doing over the last two years is sparking ideas of what does that actually look like in practice, knowing that beauty and fashion, true crime, parenting, those are three categories that are reaching a really large set of voters who are both swingy and you know switched from party to party, but also don't pay attention to the news. What would it look like for us to create a campaign where we develop true crime content and then use that content to like talk about Epstein or whatever it makes sense like it's about really using, you know, using this data to uncover those other kind of non news oriented entry points for us to then have conversations with people on their terms. Parenting is a category that I think is like highly interesting and super relevant to what we're talking about. What would it look like for us to create a track of always on communication that targets people based on the fact that their parents that talks about issues that are, you know, highly relevant to parents. I think when we talk about, you know, the March to 2028 and the fact that we're getting going early, that doesn't mean that we need to be advertising all the time. We're trying to advertise in moments that are highly relevant. Back to school, great opportunity to, you know, talk to parents about how Trump's policies, advanced policies, reveals policies are personally impacting them. I think our goal here is, is to be relevant and not necessarily always on. When people are, whether they are, like, they're interested in true crime or gaming or fitness or whatever else, like, where are those voters hanging out, right? It's like, we're not in a world where they're going to truecrime.com on the web to read about. So it was that they are in social media apps and they have both followed and are being fed. That sort of content, you know, like, just, I want to try to get a little granular about where these people are hanging out. And I think why it's particularly relevant is, you know, we have been absent in these spaces. Obviously, that's why you're doing the work you're doing. But if you look at, like, health and beauty, for instance, or wellness as a space, like, we were absent, but it's some course of time since, you know, 2016, 2012, that category, which would have seemed demographic to be very much ours, you know, a very, you know, you know, young mom, younger women, category became like the birthplace of maha. So I'm just trying to understand, like, where are these people are? Like, where they actually hang out when they say they're like, they're in a fitness or true crime or whatever else. Yeah. I mean, a lot of this research is very baked in YouTube. Like, let's just name that. I think there's priorities is spending a disproportionate amount of time and money really trying to understand YouTube behavior. Because you know how easy it is to just light money on fire on that platform. And there's a ton of upside and better understanding, you know, how people are using the platform. Let me give you an example of a program that we ran earlier this summer that I think will help answer the questions. So we, from our research, we, as we talked about, young men, super online, super swing up their swing voters, they, you know, swung from from Trump away from Trump, the away from Biden, in from 2020 to 2024. From our research, we knew that young men are interested in podcasts, finance, gaming, fitness. I think those were the categories. What our team did is we ran this campaign in Ohio earlier this summer, where all of the ads were about John Houston. But each of the ads was highly relevant to those categories that I just laid out. So you had like a guy lifting weights talking about John Houston, running, you know, next to game to fitness content. You had someone who was an actual gaming creator, talk about same topic in the context of, you know, what a normal kind of gaming piece of content on YouTube might look like. Part of the theory here, it was actually twofold. It was one. Our ads should natively look like the content that someone is otherwise watching on YouTube. Ads actually, you know, in today's world, it's actually better for an ad to blend in than to stand out. You kind of want that nativity. There's benefit there. And I think we had some research from previous cycles that proved to us that that was that was a good theory. But then also, I think more importantly, anyone on YouTube is kind of, especially a young man, is kind of like to click away from right leaning content at any given point. In part, because of how much the right has invested in just like having an always on content machine and being present in all the places that we are not, such that if you're watching fitness content and then you skip past the next two videos, you're probably going to be on a piece of content that's a little bit maha in nature. And so we had run a campaign a couple cycles ago where we just had this theory of what would it look like to just run ads on the most right leaning content that exists and see what kind of persuasion effect we can have, assuming that just because someone's on bright bar, doesn't mean they probably chose to be there. They made have just ended up there because of the algorithms. And our theory proved out, like we were able to keep, you know, retain these voters at a pretty high rate just by running positive pre-roll ads before someone, you know, was watching that right-bar content. And so the team was kind of like, how do we do this in a slightly more expanded way, not necessarily explicitly right-wing, but these kind of right-leaning places that you might not, you know, expect on the front end. So those five categories are the ones that the team kind of proposed as, let's interrupt these, let's interrupt this user's journey with ads and see what happens. And the theory proved out, right? Like we were able to effectively, you know, stop from getting to that right-leaning content a lot of the times, someone was like opening up a new tab on Google and searching for more information about John Houston, which, you know, it did the job of interrupting that person's flow. So anyway, all of that to say I think we are disproportionately spending a lot of time thinking about how to find people on YouTube in particular, just because it is such a, it's a high, it's a high-density, very efficient place to reach people, but it's a very easy place to, to, to, to burn money. And it's important to note that we talk about takes back all the time, but at last I check, you still cannot run political ads on TikTok, correct? You cannot run political ads on TikTok. That is true. And so it's just out there, destroying the world, and we can, we can, we can intervene. There's certainly interventions that you can, you can do that are not, you know, explicitly renting attention, which is that I, I liked my like, nerdy way to talk about advertising is you're, you're renting someone's attention. We can earn attention on TikTok, but it's not something that we're going to be able to, you know, get in a short window. Let's talk a little bit about AI chatbots, because in your survey, I saw that just about half of voters are using an AI chatbot once a week. And, you know, obviously Google is still king. You pointed that out. But even Google is changing in the way a lot of people are getting their search results because they are coming in these AI summaries, which is interrupting the search ads that we've been spending gazillion dollars on for decades. And, but so as we think as AI chatbots grow as a search engine for people, how should Democrats be thinking about influencing those results? Like we had a playbook. We had a, both a, we had a advertising playbook for Google search, and we had an organic search SEO playbook for how to get our content near the top of the results. What the hell do you do when it's a, you know, a handful of very different, very independent AI chatbots? Yeah. First of all, there's a lot of really smart people who are tackling this head-on. I think the folks that had run for something called AI are thinking really extensively about how do you A) understand and then B) manipulate a chatbot result. And it's really, you know, AEO is just SEO 2.0, right? It's just - You say what AO is, just so people know. - Yeah, it stands for answer engine optimization, and it's basically, how do you manipulate what is gonna show up in a chatbot result? There's a lot of really smart people out there who are thinking about how do you understand what's showing up in a chatbot result, and then how do you actually change it? You change it by updating your website, you change it by pitching stories to the AP or posting shit on Reddit, because that's a place that's often getting picked up by chatbots. All of this is going to change incredibly fast, and anyone who is kind of going out there with best practices today, the best practices are going to change two months from now, six months from now, and so I think it does require a lot of urgency and a shift in conversation across our party that if we always had to invest in digital infrastructure, now is the time to double, triple, quadruple down on that effort. For us to really understand how quickly the internet is changing, we have to be investing in innovation to make sure that we're able to stay on top of these trends. I think the work that priorities is doing, though, in the kind of chatbot space, beyond just understanding what a result is, and understanding how you might manipulate that result, is really understanding when and why are people turning to chatbots? What is the kind of driver of why someone's using it, and how does that change how we should be thinking about intervening and better understanding their media journey? And so I think the research that we did over the summer, I think was highly, it was incredibly helpful at uncovering that people are not necessarily searching for information about a candidate, as much as they are searching for information about policies and issues in a much more granular way. I think as AI, I don't know if you feel this personally, but I think as I'm scrolling TikTok and on YouTube, and seeing content in my feed that feels a little, is this real, is this not? I'm personally opening up Judge GBT, Claude, and saying, hey, can you fact check this for me? I think a ton of, it almost feels like the Spider-Man meme where we're, because of the insurgents of AI, people are using AI to check if things are AI. So it doesn't seem great for the world, but yes, that's where we are. Yeah. PodSafe America is brought to you by Helix. I love my Helix mattress. I have a dawn lux. I took, I actually took the quiz because I am a stomach sleeper. I'm trying to become a science sleeper and kind of rotating, but I love the bed. It's really comfortable. It helps make sure you get a good night's sleep. And you can take the quiz and see which mattress is perfect for you based on your personal preferences and sleep needs. They have over 20 mattress models. 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This offer is exclusive to Pots of America listeners that's helixleep.com/Cricket for 27% off-site wide. HelixSleep.com/Cricket. - US voters abroad. Go to votefromrabraud.org and click "Request My Ballot" as to receive it by email. Questions? Don't delay. Votefromrabraud.org. - Longplay our docu-series exploring the people and forces shaping the South is back. Newsflash, the South is the new political epicenter of the country. I'm Erin Haines, journalist and expert on all things Southern politics. And I'm Jennifer Paul Mary, former White House communications director. Tune in on Mondays to Longplay Series on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. (upbeat music) - We're in the middle of 2026 selection. You guys are focused on among other things. Trying to define the 2028 potential nominees most notably JD Vance and Marco Rubio. Talk to me about why start that process now. - Yeah, absolutely. So I'm very, I've been working at a super pack for almost a decade now, which is crazy. And I am very much of the opinion that the way that our party uses super packs is outdated and not to the maximum that we can and certainly not to the maximum that Republicans do. And the way I would describe that is quite simple. I think as much as this role of a super pack is to raise money that a campaign cannot raise, AKA we are able to raise beyond the contribution limit that a campaign has, we also have time that a campaign doesn't have. And I think really leaning into that time element is a thing that I feel really important as the role that a super pack can play in today's world. And so I think in the aftermath of 2024, when we're sitting around asking ourselves, why the hell did we just lose that election? And what can we do differently next time? Our team got to work on a couple of things, including at a high level, how can we do a better job of listening to the internet to be able to drive decision making? We can talk about polling and all the reasons why polling is flawed, but priorities is very much of the opinion that with the availability of AI, we can observe qualitative data at such a larger scale in today's world that we might as well lean into it. It's exactly how the Republicans are making their decisions, like we like to look at the comma is for they then add, I think is a perfect example of how the Republicans said, that ad has likes to it, it's sticky. It's doing really well online, let's put money behind it. Whereas on the Democratic side, we have to let an ad go through an entire polling program or all in order to take it seriously. Anyway, all of that to say, priorities got to work after 2024 to build a tech stack and do research, to really understand how can we be leaning into listening to the internet to understand what's going to resonate and what's going to break through. At the same time, we recognize that the March to 2028 is going to be long, and it's going to include a lot of Democrats fighting each other. I think if the summer wasn't indicative of anything, it's that primaries are challenging, and they can be really helpful, but ultimately they're tough. And we are about to go, we are about to face that on a level that is going to be different than what we just experienced over the summer. And I'm really worried that our party has not been, you know, we have not gone through an election without Trump on the ballot in quite some time. I think our muscle memory there is quite weak. We're going to be running against someone new no matter what happens. And the Democrats are going to be fighting each other. So the team at priorities was like, what can we do to be the most value ad heading into 28? Let's get going now. Let's actually start to think about what it looks like to define our eventual opposition. So that by the time we have a nominee, they have a slightly less uphill climb to be able to go after and compare themselves to the Republican. So that's the work of prologue. We're really excited about it. Our tech stack all feeds into kind of what we're doing. It's not going to look like a traditional average hits in campaign. It's going to be always on, but that doesn't mean we're on all the time and we have a million ideas that we're excited to dive into. - So the, I am, after 2017, sorry, after 2016, in 2017, one of my strong views was that we should take a lot of the money that was flowing into Democratic politics and the way of Trump and be always on, right? And to, like not, as you say, not always on, like we're going to run ads for the rest of time, but in high leverage moments, you would run advertising to shape that impression, to shape that moment where people are paying attention in their minds, in our favor. And I was, I liked that idea because I believed, correctly, I think, that we were just so outgunned in the media space that we were competing with Trump, competing with Fox News, competing with Facebook at the time. This is very powerful entity that was a sort of conduit for MAGA adjacent messaging. Like we needed to, you know, put some, like messaging thrust behind the things that happened. I went around, I saw this a lot of the people and the thing that everyone came back to me to say was, and smart people was, there is no evidence that early ads work, and then you're basically recommending that we are lighting money on fire. I was never fully convinced of that, but I also was incapable of convincing the people who said that, to do something different. What is your response to that? - I mean, does that logically make sense? - It doesn't make sense. Well, I mean, they will throw a bunch of political science research at you that people have very short memories or not paying attention at the time. And so it doesn't. The impressions are not worth the money, I guess. - I mean, research also didn't show that smoking caused cancer until that very recently. - Fair enough, fair enough, yes. - No, I just, I think that I really appreciate the folks in the academic space for pushing us to be rigorous. But at the end of the day, like, I think it's really important to name that political advertisers and what we are trying to do when we are trying to win elections is fundamentally different than any other, you know, communication challenge marketing challenge in the broader world right at the end of the day, not to bring Nike back into it, but like Nike spends millions of dollars a year to think they're a really cool brand, they run ads that around every sporting event to make you like them, but ultimately they're trying to sell you shoes and they get to use shoe sales as a proxy. For whether they're just do it ads or working or not, we don't have that we do not have proxies that we get to use to understand whether someone is mind is being changed right like that's why surveys are, you know, we invest so much in surveys because it's the it's the closest we can get to be able to being able to ask someone were you persuaded by this did we did we sell you the shoe. And you know that I've spent a huge chunk of my career trying to get to a point where we can like zero in and understand how to properly measure a persuasion effect and it is it is quite challenging and it is probably the hardest thing that I've had to, you know, face in my career. But the reality is you know the Republicans are investing close to a billion dollars over the last decade in always on infrastructure and communication and I think it is quite obvious that it has paid off right you look at you know the example I like to give is. Trump after the the shooting you know within an hour he had people on the internet talking about the ballroom and the how the shooting necessitated that the need to to build a ballroom. We don't have that amplification you know program on our site there's a lot of folks that are working really hard to build it, but it just shows the long term payoff of what always on infrastructure looks like. Meanwhile, you know, Democrats sit around and our amplification is like crossing your fingers and toe hoping for a retweet from Barack Obama, like if you want to look at that and say that our situation is is work is better. I just don't buy that I think it's at the end of the day like art and science have to have to come into play and and we have to be able to use our judgment and be able to say that you know always on communication. It has to matter right like we can see it playing out in front of our eyes, but I think a critical reason that we are doing things differently and and I. I empathize with the criticism of always on in that sometimes you can look at the way it plays out in a budget and just think well there's no way in how we can afford that. You can't afford to like be at the impression levels now that we would want to be at in the fall of of 2028, but that's why the priorities approach of really using behavioral targeting as an entry point to have these conversations is is I'm so excited about this program because it's the first time that I've really looked at a program through the lens of how do we reach people not necessarily during a time when they're registering to vote or when news is breaking kind of those natural political moments, but instead during the moments of case. I'm googling whether my lettuce is safe like that's the perfect time to have a political conversation. It doesn't mean we're going to be on all the time. In fact, we're not on right now, but like the next time something you know, politically relevant happens, you'll see us go up. All right, I want to look at some of your ads because they are they look nothing like typical Democratic ad. I want to start with one about JD Vance. Let's play it. Hi, I'm JD Vance. As vice president, I cast a tie breaking vote to cut your health care and I've been helping our great leader create tremendous well, which has been trickling down to you. Wrong wasn't built in a day, of course, but ultimately you're going to feel the benefits and your Medicaid. I worry. That's just in material minutia. Anyway, get back to work. We're almost like your second job and president Trump and I have to get back to redecorating. Okay, I believe that was Donald Trump taking a leak on JD Vance's head to make a point about Chicago economics. I love it. Yeah, so go ahead. Yeah, talk to me. Just talk to me about the concept of the ad, who you who you showed the ad to and what the reaction to it was. Yeah, so you know, my friends at home think being an executive director is like out there talking to you know, rich people. It's actually just getting a slack from your CMO. This is, hey, how do you feel about an ad with some piss in it? That's quite literally the reality of this job. But, you know, I think that this ad is about recognizing that if you can't actually get someone to watch your ad, it doesn't matter how well it tested, right? The number one thing that we need to be aware of is the skip button and the second screen that exists and the fact that people are just naturally going to tune out of what we're saying. So if we want to be able to actually get our message across about gas prices, we need to deliver it in a format that's going to capture people's attention. This is just one ad, right? I think it's really, you know, the media responds really well to, hey, look at this one ad and cover it and get some media attention on it. The reality is like prologue is going to be thousands of ads over the next two years. We're going to throw shit at the wall, see what sticks and then move on with our lives. This ad is one example of something that we tried. It actually did get a ton of attention. People watched it all the way through. I think we were really excited about the metrics that we saw. People want humor. They want things. They want the politics to be a little bit less serious. And so that was our attempt to kind of play around with those insights. So, you know, the typical way we have been measuring efficacy of ads and messaging over the last decade here is persuasion effects, right? How much does that based on a we're testing the ad in front of tens of thousands of people and to what? How many points did this take off of Trump's approval or how much did it move vote choice in our favor? And these are all in a polarized environment. Very small numbers that, you know, we're like an ad can be three times as effective as another ad and it's because it's moving approval three times that one three points at one point. Yeah, what is your metric metric of success here? Is it completion rate? Are you testing persuasion effects? How are you thinking about it? All of the above. I think we're of the opinion that there's no singular metric that's ever going to tell you your ad is working. You have to take a really wide lens and like take it all in. You know, we didn't do creative testing in 2016. I think in the aftermath, I was really excited when the idea of creative testing kind of came into the ecosystem. Because I was like, okay, like we can finally like understand before we put money behind an ad, how's it going to do? And I don't know if you guys remember like 2016 the biggest thing was like so many of our ads were causing backlash. They were actually like moving people in the wrong direction. And that was like such an eye-opening thing. And so I was always of the opinion that you know, you can take a look at a creative test result and weed out the ads that are going to do harm and actually move people in the wrong direction. And then if you have five ads at the end of the day that move people in the right direction, put them all online and see how they do, right? Like let's compare offline and online metrics against each other to really understand, you know, how they're going to both be complimentary and maybe disagree with each other. Not to shout out the team at on the Newsom campaign, but they did this really well during the Prop 50 campaign. I think what their whole theory was, we're going to test our ads. We are going to see what works in a kind of lab environment. We're going to see what horse race looks like. But instead of, you know, picking the top ad that has the highest horse race effect, we're going to just going to put everything out there that doesn't do harm and then see, you know, on YouTube, which audiences, which add move. I just give them a lot of props for kind of taking that theory. It's in strong alignment with kind of the priority theory of the case. And it obviously had a really awesome impact in that race. But yeah, I think part of our theory, and this is one of the other tools that we're actually in development on right now, is what does it look like to a mass, a much larger set of signals to understand how something might resonate online, beyond just, you know, how something tests in a creative test and how something pulls, how is an issue being talked about on a podcast? How is it being talked about in a comment section in a search trend at the doors? There's a million different data sets that we have available to us that we can be listening to. And part of what priorities is doing is amassing all of those into a centralized view so that we can take everything in and make strategic judgments accordingly. All right, let's look at a ad about Marco Rubio. And now let's discuss it. Okay. Think America can't get any more expensive. Did we can't afford another pointless war? Well, the call isn't yours to make. It is with the little Marco Invasion Action Playset. Boats that are too big promises he can't keep. This is not going to be a problem. He starts the wars. We pay for it. Social security. Not anymore. Medicare. Bye bye. The time that sends wheelboys off to war. The little Marco Invasion Action Playset. I love it. I love little Marco. Similar vibe to they all have a South Parking, South Parking, I guess, other term vibe to them. Which I do like. Who was the target audience for this ad and how did it do? Yeah, so generally speaking, priorities is always kind of trying to go after the young voters and voters of color as our primary audience. Looking ahead to 2028, our team has identified just under 10 million voters across the battleground states that kind of fit into that category. So that is, you know, the primary audience for this. I think for this particular creative brief, we were also quite interested in in having an effect with young man in particular. Just because those are the top audience for us. You know, you, I heard you say to, you mentioned YouTube comments earlier that you read them and that they're actually sort of influencing some of the creative decision you're making. Which is a far cry from, which is probably causing data nerves within the party to lose their mind that we would look at YouTube comments. But one thing you said to Peter Hanvey was that the YouTube comments about J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio were different in one very notable respect. Could you say what that was? For sure, so let me explain quickly why we care so much about comment sections at parties because it does cause a lot of stress But I do think it's super valid so we did a research project last summer where we interviewed a bunch of young men on how they watch YouTube and by far In a way the biggest takeaway from that research project was just how Reliable these young men are on comment sections. They watch a video. They jump to the comment section They really want to understand what their peers think they really want to understand if there's agreement or disagreement It is like peer validation that is like happening in front of our eyes and it is like You know people like to say the internet is not real life comment sections are not real life I'm not here to say that people who are commenting on videos are representative of voters But it is an environment where conversations are happening and we need to take it seriously and learn from it So that is why we care so much about observing what is going on in these comment sections and what we saw when we were crafting You know Our initials that a polling on on vans and rubio in particular, you know Our team was going about you know picking out the messages that you would you know pull out when you're pulling together a poll But we also spent a lot of time kind of scouring the internet to understand what are the narratives that are kind of naturally occurring around these guys What are the late-night hosts saying about these guys what are comment sections? What are podcasts saying about them? So that we could you know have a little bit of an internet first lens to the narratives that are appearing in our polling and we found that While comment sections about JD vans were we're often you know quite negative definitely poking fun at him People are not afraid to poke fun at at JD vans Marco Rubio's comments were a lot more positive There's just not a lot of criticism happening organically about him online And it's actually why in in rolling out this program I think our team walked away feeling a lot more anxious about kind of what we have in front of us to define Marco Rubio just because a he's super undefined be people are not willing to you know go super negative on him online And see like in rolling out this program to the press the only person anyone wants to talk about right now is JD vans People don't want to talk about marker Rubio and that's a problem The JD vans thing is interesting because a Like I think a lot about political messaging when you're trying to define a person as you kind of want to meme if I am And you can either be meme if I did in a cool way or in a bad way Trump maybe the Trump may actually be the one person who resisted me mean because he kind of is a meme of himself Who sort of developed his own meme in the 80s and it's just like live with his sense But you know, it is what it's like this is even before we even talked about me It's like that's what happened to John Kerry with the the wind surfing and the You know the I you know, I was four before us against it like they he was unified. He lost Al Gore even before that We know who a man who was A lot chosen by Bill Clinton to be on the ticket because he was thought to be the most ethical and moral person in the Senate Then by the end was turned into a giant liar who claimed that he invented the internet and was so boring He got nemified right and so like vans seems like like I was think about when we like you can I'm sure if we do message testing and we asked a million voters made his focus groups like Like you would want to say they're bad on affordability, but that's not like a it's not a culturally relevant message or culturally relevant message is that The JD vans is a goober. I actually looked at that green debris right before we got on just I wanted to remember um Our our creative brief literally describes like what we think the meme of these guys should be For JD vans. It's the flannel shirt doesn't fit him anymore Right he grew up seemingly middle class He's now in the Trump administration and like unfortunately the flannel shirt that he once wanted to wear no longer zips up It's he's grown out of it because he's spent the last couple years catering to the Trump administration So what you thought you knew about him before it's not so true anymore So everything you're gonna see us put out over the next couple years like for now Like I think the meme could evolve and part of our our research is gonna be to try to understand you know poke holes in in that theory Um, but that's kind of the story that we're trying to tell about vans and it also allows us to you know tell that story through a climate change lens or an abortion lens or an economic lens It doesn't require us to You know pit issues against each other. I think every time as a party we're pitting issues against each other We're losing that the meme I think that our team has picked out for for Rubio is he's a chicken hawk He's all talk, but when it actually comes to it like he's never served in the military He's actually nowhere to be found right now despite everything that's going on in Iran. So Those like like I said like our team and putting together this creative brief and really distilling the research It was less about um, what are the top issues and more what's the one sentence that you want someone to describe them as when they walk away Um, and I think that's really our theory on on narrative and and messaging Uh, priorities Before I let you go um like as we are sitting here today There's somewhere between a dozen and 400 people who are planning to run for president very soon In those campaign headquarters. There are already people Do and I have been these people in campaigns in the past who are charting out in memos and slide decks What the campaign should look like what the strategy would be what the campaign structure would be what advice do you have for these campaigns to You know learn from what you guys have done into avoid making some of the mistakes we've made in recent campaigns where I think some of our structure and strategies have been Anachronistic at best Yeah, I mean I would be your miss not to say that like digital has to be at the table like if you are not bringing digital be the table Yes, right. There's all the debate. A digital is a team versus a tactic. Yes Like I hope we're past that, but I have to say it, right? Um, I mean the other thing is just like You know, I think that if I I get asked all the time well. How are you guys actually acting on this research? It's really smart. It's really insightful But like what what how should it change my strategy? And I think my singular answer to that question is more is more and more video Um, you are never going to regret making more video for today the way today's internet operates I think Kyle thought put this study out a couple weeks or last week around just how much Cory Booker is just turning out video and constantly putting things out And it's like earning him a ton of of awesome, you know, goodwill on the internet You are never going to regret doing more But I think that requires a fundamental shift in We need to stop editing ourselves on the front end. We need to stop putting things things through 20 rounds of Legal compliance research review and and just start Putting things on the internet and seeing what sticks the internet is a place where we have a lot to learn We need to stop thinking a bit out of it as just a distribution channel And instead think about it as a place where we can do a lot of good in listening and observing Um, how people are responding to our content Daniel Butterfield Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for nerding out with me on my favorite topic in the world Um, this has been so much fun. We will be watching what you guys are doing through the rest of this election in the next Thank you so much. Thank you. Talk soon Positive America is a cooking media production our show is produced by Austin Fisher Saul Rubin McKenna Roberts and Ferris Safari with Reed Jerlin Elijah Cone and Adrian Hill Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Heffco, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, David Tolls, Mia Kalman, Ryan Young and Naomi Single. Our staff is probably unionized with the writer's guild of America East Longplay our docu-series exploring the people and forces shaping the South is back News flash the South is the new political epicenter of the country Democrats are way on their heels in this region But Republicans are going through their own reckoning in the South too. We're in the final stretch of the midterms And the political map has only gotten more competitive with new states and districts emerging as potential flips So we thought it was time to get back out on the road and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ground I'm Aaron Haynes, journalist and expert on all things Southern politics And I'm Jennifer Paul Mary, former White House communications director Tune in on Mondays to Longplay series on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts