In this podcast, host James Anderson interviews fantasy baseball expert Steve Weimer, highlighting his impressive track record of success in deep leagues. They discuss draft preferences, with Weimer favoring Draft Champions (DC) and auction formats for their strategic flexibility. The conversation delves into roster construction, emphasizing the value of targeting hitters with extreme strengths (e.g., power/speed or high batting average) to create categorical advantages and adaptability throughout the season. Specific players are analyzed, including Oneil Cruz, whose platoon risk is noted, and older hitters like Jorge Soler (seen as a decline risk) and Marcus Semien (identified as a bounce-back candidate). Weimer advocates for zagging against consensus strategies to find value, particularly in batting average and stolen base specialists, while acknowledging the unpredictability of categorical needs post-draft.
Welcome to the Roto Wire Fantasy Baseball podcast brought to you by fan tracks. I'm your host James Anderson and we are joined today by the great Steve Weimer. One of the best players out there. I mean, if you if you play in a 15 team league with Steve Weimer statistically, he has a better than one in three chance of winning the league and a better than three in four chance of caching in the league. Well, you the average drafter had less than a 5% chance of winning the league. So Steve Weimer, one of the greats really appreciate you coming back on the show Steve. How you doing man? I'm doing well. I don't think I'm doing as well as you made that sound right there. I can't. I don't think those numbers can be quite right that I hope you're right. Yeah, doing okay. How many drafts you did so far, which I assume probably mostly DCs. Yeah, I mean, my like 9/10 DC one more to go. Definitely ready to make the transition to fab leagues and kind of different mindset and be a little bit more aggressive. I just want best balls as well, just like out of boredom when anything else. I really don't know what I'm doing there. But yeah, just those two formats so far, but you know, pretty soon. Hopefully transition to making no C or two and there's like a DC auction coming up, which is always a lot of fun. So. Yeah, absolutely. I've got my DC auction coming up here in a little less than two weeks and a year's is a little over two weeks away saw you in that one. I hopped in the other one. It was more of a tie break than anything else. I don't mind playing in leagues with you Steve, but I'm already kind of contract truly obligated to be in one league with you, the meatball too early league. So which you've won back to back years, by the way. So that's enough for me. But what's your favorite NFBC contest? Because for me, I think the 500 DC auction might be my favorite. I love the main event as well. But what's what's your favorite? Yeah, I think it's probably that DC auction kind of best of both worlds, I guess. I could do like DC's a lot of auction. I think actually like at a nice element to DC's that fits better for my auction style. I like auction in general, but I tend to be like probably too conservative, like spreading the wealth or spreading the risk, but that I think fits a lot better in the DC context. So that's a good mix, I think for me. Yeah, so I'd say probably that. Yeah, and you've, I mean, you've been doing those ever since I've been doing on my probably for what like three, three plus years or something. Something like that. Yeah. So I always, you know, I brush to get in them since they refuse to do more for whatever reason. Now, so hopefully, you know, every year, they'll, I think they, they did a couple of like more private ones this year. But they get a lot of requests to open up more than just the two at the $500 price point. I think they could probably sell out more and getting what happens to be listening. But as it stands, you kind of have to take close attention to when they open up and try to get one of those spots. Yeah, absolutely. The 500 DC will, we'll take more of those if you're listening, Greg. But let's talk to, let's talk more about some like specific players here, Steve. I want to ask you about, I'm kind of calling these sort of like extreme hitters. Like I think that the consensus best way to sort of build an offense is to get like well rounded hitters who come close to being positives and all five categories whenever possible. I mean, I know I know I'm over simplifying that, but like I noticed in your your meatball DC this year, you collected a handful of hitters early that have sort of extreme strengths and weaknesses. You know, you had O'Neill Cruz early, Luis Robert, Willie Adamis. And then you also kind of backfilled with some guys on the other end of that extreme, like your Yandee Diaz, Nico Horner, Gabrielle Marano, Brendan Donovan types. And so I had a couple theories behind this, you know, obviously one is just that you can build batting average backwards, especially if you're the only one in your league who's kind of trying to go that route. And then my sort of more out there kind of crazy theory, which would only really apply to someone like you, if you're sort of confident enough in your ability to kind of backfill the roster was that if you, if you have a bunch of these guys that are just really elite. And really elite in one category like stolen bases with with some power like an on you, O'Neill Cruz or Luis Robert or you're just an extreme kind of batting average guy. You know, like like a Brendan Donovan or Yandee Diaz, you can kind of use those as buttons to sort of push or pull back on in certain categories in a DC throughout the season so that you're kind of getting the exact amount of stats you need to climb to the level you're trying to get in a certain category. And so I was just wondering if like either those theories really ran true for you in terms of like that kind of build that you had in that that meatball DC and and also just like if you think these sort of good and power speed mediocre batting average guys are undervalued or if the good batting average bad power guys are also undervalued just because it is a bit more challenging to build around those two different types. Yeah, so like the meatball DC I've never never know how to prepare for that. That's just kind of random and I probably went and definitely went way too early on on you old crews. And probably a few other players and part of it is just like they've tried to like claw back some average I guess later. So like once you go for one type then it you have more reason to try to compliment. In general, I do think that like I think there's some I agree that that idea you mentioned like find well rounded players like it's definitely consensus you hear it a lot like a lot of things there's some wisdom in it but like when it becomes to come practice right. I'm a great opportunities to zag like where other people are seeking so like if enough people are making a point of that and passing over the lower average people or the individuals that are specialists in some way. Then like they become values right so it creates opportunities to do that like I was looking back. These aren't like power speed guys obviously but last year steamer had like the two lowest projected averages among full time hitters were Cal rally and college whatever right. And they were about third and sixth on the player rate or so if in every league there's a few people that pass them over because they've heard over and over like they need to protect their batting average early. Then you know it just leaves value for someone else to take advantage of it and like just more generally like there's you know 14 hitting spots there's 27 weeks there's a lot of time to make up for like a deficit in one category if you build it up early. Especially I think if that category is batting happens because it's like the most variable that we can predict it really well. So that's where like a lot of those specialists I think this idea that you mentioned about like having that the buttons to push later you know comes in handy because you don't really know for the whole lot of confidence. I don't think like what your categorical strengths or weaknesses will be that coming out of a draft like it's not going to be exactly what you expect oftentimes. So having like some options to address whatever needs actually arise like so not just anticipated when when it comes to each lie you do have like a need for average or steals. Having someone that can address that I think is his value especially even like a DC where you have you know positive roster spots you could afford to have a few of those types. Yeah absolutely. Did you was the you mentioned just kind of the the meatball DC just not you know you put like that much thought into it or whatever. Like is the only old crews is that someone you've you've gotten again like since the price has like probably been quite a bit cheaper than you went for him in that one or is that your only share. I've got at least one other maybe a couple. But I still have passed a couple times even where I've seemed like it is a value. I don't know I think that there's there's definitely value there. Like you know I think I took them 30th overall which is going to look silly and already looks silly in retrospect. But like the lot the skills some of the like core skills are there this to be tuned kind of that worries me more than anything the batting average. I think it's okay to take a gamble on some of the people where like the steals provide a nice floor and you know you don't expect him to hit for those average as he did last year. So I can see doing it some more I think I did get him in like the one other like a auction that I did. And I think you might be a good kind of piece there where you have more kind of flexibility to build around it if you need to. And it's and it's not you know I don't like everyone sort of oh man like on your crews coming off this bad year I'm with you. I think the platoon is is much more troubling. But like it doesn't like if we kind of can take ourselves back to like a year ago like I don't think anyone is viewing crews as as more of a batting average liability than they were Shorber and Raleigh a year ago like to your point right so. That doesn't mean he's just going to do what those guys did and and exceed his batting average projection by 30 40 points or whatever but. Just the fact that we know he's going to run a bunch like any discounted based off of the down year definitely make sense as a nice road O peace but that yeah that put to and he is like when I had filled you so on a couple of weeks ago. Cruises the highest drafted.
outfielders who's going to be in a platoon by just like leaps and bounds, right? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he does, he is the type, like in terms of like stats per game or per play appearance. Like he's, you know, one of the few people that can make up for that, you know, and get you full value on you two thirds of the playing time. But obviously, it'd be better if they were more of an obvious path to getting, you know, 85% of the playing time is on my dead. So, um, I want to ask you, last year you came on the show and I was asking you about, um, basically trying to look for that, that year's Jose Abre, you because back in 2024, or if people remember that far back, Jose Abre, you was like getting drafted around, you know, pick 300 or whatever. He was still under contract with the Astros, but then he was quickly just washed up and out of the league. So we're trying to figure out which guys might be trapped and just might be washed pretty early after opening day. And we discussed George Springer as potential candidate was coming off a down year. You very correctly identified on last year's pod that that George Springer was someone that still had good seasons left in the tank and was, was not someone we should avoid for fear of potentially kind of falling off a cliff. And obviously George Springer was on a lot of league winning rosters last year. So I kind of wanted to go back or go down that road again and look at some of these old hitters and see if we see maybe a potential this year's George Springer while also kind of looking for potential guys that could could really fall off a cliff. So I wanted to start with just like a group of guys and we don't, we're not going to go through more than one or two of these guys, baby, but I just wanted to read some of the old guys who are coming off of good years. So we got like Freddie Freeman, Salvador Perez, George Springer, Christian Yellow, Chozale-Tuvese, Teasca Hernandez, Trevor Story, A. Eugenio Suarez, Jürkson Profare, Zander Bogart, Jorge Polanco, Max Muncie, and John Carles Stanton. They're all fairly old, you know, 31, 32 at the youngest. It's such a young man's game right now, Steve. Like it's really hard to find that many guys who are kind of in their mid-30s and are getting drafted high. But did any of those just older hitters who are coming off of good years stand out as being risks to sort of fall off just due to sort of where they're at on the aging curve and the fact that they're still getting drafted fairly high based on how they performed in 2025. It was tough. This was a tough assignment because like most of them, like I think the market is smart and like they've been discounted a little bit and most of them are still pretty good values, like at least by my numbers. But when I was looking through it, like the two that kind of stood out are Polanco and Story just because if you look at what they did last year, and compared it to their previous few years, they made significant gains, both in my shirt, got rate and EV, I think in both cases. And you just expect some natural regression there to begin with, right? And then you add in the age and injury risk. I went back a couple years to try to compare 25 to what they had, the baseline they had established. And I had to go two or three years to get enough play-to-bear tips, right? Because they missed a lot of time before last year. But I think a lot of it is priced in, still like decent values. I think Stories the one that worries me a little bit more. His defense was really bad last year and it's hard to imagine him actually losing playing time, but if he's projected for like a 300 OBP and he's making a lot of errors, like is there like a finite leash, I guess? Because I know that like defense is really bad, like down the stretch. Maybe that's just random, but it was in the Boston press a lot of errors. I think in September, like seven of us, 19 happened in September, like multiple games with like a couple throwing errors and probably nothing. But if you're really trying to like, like nips and identify like risks, I'd say, there's some there with him at least. Yeah, and they did, they do kind of have just sort of some guys hanging around. Like they brought in, as a kind of Filetha. You know, obviously, I think Marcelo Mayor fits better at third base if story can just kind of do what he did last year, but you know, Mayor probably a better defensive shortstop than story. And yeah, kind of a Filetha, obviously, a better defensive shortstop than story. So like they have some options, even if they're on inspiring options, if they did want to go in a different direction there. Yeah, I haven't ended up with any Jorge Polanco, but I definitely should have before he, when he was still a free agent, I think he was a really good value back then. But, yeah, I am wary about paying for just that that you came out of nowhere really. And now he's on a big deal. This is maybe a more interesting group though, Steve. So this is this is where we're talking about old hitters who are probably in everyday roles. One of these guys is going to probably be in a platoon, but we want to see if you think any of these guys could really kind of continue a decline that they showed last year and have that sort of Jose Abreu risk. And then maybe see if any of these guys, because this is the group that Springer would have been in last year, he had a below league average year in 2024 and see if any of these guys might actually have that type of resurgence. So old guys coming off down years, Christian Walker of the Astros, Adoli Garcia, newly with the Phillies, JTRL Muto, Marcus Semian, another new Met, and then Stedrick Mullins with Tampa Bay, Marcelo Zuna, a new pirate, and Jorge Soler with the Angels. So let's see, let's start with like who you think is like a major risk to just continue the decline they showed last year. I'd probably say like Soler for sure. And then probably, oh Zuna, but I didn't actually like look at him as much as I haven't because I'm no interested in him just in general. But Soler is the kind of player that like normally I'd be in on at least for DCs, where it's like bad team, big contract, like the playing time, it should be solid, but his skills like decayed pretty badly last year. And if he's not hitting like, it's not too hard to imagine, the Angels just like using Trabamort D.H. to try to keep him healthy and just sitting Soler, reading the contract because it is like the last year. So he's one that's like that could be nothing. I think by mid season. And then it was Zuna, I don't know, I guess don't have too much interest, but probably that has a higher baseline. I think you know, it didn't probably a longer leash, but I wouldn't expect a huge bounce back at least. Yeah, yeah, I wonder if I was Zuna, I assume he'll, his ADP will go up now that he's signed. But yeah, put a pin in that that Soler discussion, I might bring him up later, but what about any of the, do any of these guys stand out as a potential like bounce back up? Obviously, I don't think we're expecting any of these guys to have a year like George Sprinter did last year, but you know, I know the projection's still like a few of these guys quite a bit. So who do you have one or two of these that you're intrigued by as a potential bounce back candidate? Yeah, I think the easy choice is Semi-in. Like it's been pretty well noted that he had a bad start after May, pretty much the same guy he has been in terms of skills. And just a lot of like playing time upside, like the projections are really like harsh on him. I'm sure it's the age and partly like the last year that he missed, you know, forget how many played, like branches, he was still, things still over 500, but like the previous six full seasons, he had over 700 played a parent this, right? And he's now projected for 600. So I think like, you know, good team probably hitting high and it has a history of playing every single day. So I think there's playing time upside as well as like a little bit of skills upside just based on what the projections are expecting. And then the other one I didn't expect to like, I don't know, be interested in and I'm glad you asked this because now maybe I will be a little bit more is Garcia. Playing time not nearly as secure, but the skills really aren't that different like last year compared to what he's doing before. Projections still like it. Strikeouts were a little bit better. I think then they had been barrel rate, sprint speed, not great, but it hasn't been for a few years. So I think it's pretty easy to see him being like a value at least, you know, like not on sprinter levels, but you know, compared to where he's going. Yeah, definitely. I felt the same way about Garcia when like I've never really been in on Garcia, which was a big mistake from 2021 through 2020. Well, 2024 I guess maybe, but you know, he at least had a batting average above 240 from 2021 through 2023 while hitting for a bunch of power and some speed. And then obviously just tailing off a little bit from that career year in 2023, but the projections really I was surprised by how much they like Garcia.
with the Phillies ATC has them for 234 with 23 homeers and 11 steals, but like Oopsy has them for 241 with 25 homeers and 14 steals. Like if you can get 241 with 25 homeers, 14 steals and tick 230 is what our C is going. So I mean you could be drafting Garcia as like your OF4, or maybe even OF5, but probably more like OF4 for me. So yeah, he's intriguing. The Phillies, you know, they they'd like to do that kind of reclamation project that obviously worked great with Azusa's Ardo last year did not work well with Max Kepler. But yeah, I mean, I think they're kind of setting things up for Garcia to have at least a couple months of of leash as an everyday player there. Yeah, not a lot of depth really. Like I'm just looking at it behind him. There's not a whole lot of obvious threats. Like it's clear that Castilla should be gone. And then it's kind of, I mean, you know, obviously the prospect the form system stuff better than I do. But I don't see a whole lot that, you know, we're short enough at least like more than you're saying. And so it's like, you know, I mean, you know, I mean, I think that's the best way to do that. And so that's the best way to do that. You know, like you know, it's a great way to do that. Yeah, you know, it's a great way to do that. Yeah, I mean, it's a great way to do that. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a great way to do that. I kind of think the public projection systems are under projecting the plate appearances for a few of the very best catchers like Cal Raleigh, William Contreras, Shailang Lear's, Hunter Goodman and Sal Perez were the five that kind of came to mind for me. Like you'd really have to mess something up to not get at least one good short step and one good first baseman. But I think second second second baseman third base or just a bit more odd. There are a couple of lead options at the top. And then there's a steep drop off. And then there's a steep drop. And then on third base, I have a DC where it was like Shaw and Durbin. So I guess now it's Durbin. Another where Perez was the first one. So neither of those situations is looking ideal at this point. And like for that reason, I guess, like I would, I think it's totally fine waiting on second base. I think there's like a lot of pockets of potential values. And you don't have to panic at any point. There's like a nice range with like stop and albist. And if you miss that, then there's like the semi in a Polanco. Brito Torres. Like there's, there's kind of options throughout the draft for second base. You can kind of get it at any point. Third base is a little bit dice here to me. I don't like any ranges really. So it's just a matter of like deciding where it gets and the overall plan. And where it's least painful or at least in terms of opportunity cost. But yeah, I'd say much more comfortable waiting on second base than third base. Right. Yeah. So like it's, it's. Yeah, there's more of like a panic at third base of just like, oh crap. Like I don't, I don't like what I've got here. And then with second base, you're not, you don't mind. If you're just getting, say like the ninth best production at second base in your league throughout the year. Might have been 12 best production probably. Well, I'm sure you can get the 12th best second base. And I feel like you could still manage your way into ninth best second base production. Yeah, I'm actually like, I don't know if these are good measures, but like I've got something that's like trying to approximate like the cliff. And it's does not that steep at second base, right? So like it's pretty smooth drop off right throughout.
like actually sort of stops where there's like the biggest what like you said, you should feel before that cliff in third base is kind of that the danger area where there's not a ton of good options and there's a pretty big drop off. So that's just required a little more attention I think. So yeah it's uh I mean second base it's just you're never going to not have a viable option but it's it is just kind of it's weird when there's like 20 options that are all like about the same and like obviously you don't it limits your upset in a league if if you're only the 10th best in one like position. I mean I do you think do you think like the like Catel Marte, Jess Chisholm guys are they being appropriately priced or are they being overdrafted just because of that drop? I think Jess is a tough caught like he's got the potential to separate like from the rest of the position. Marte I don't really like to price on I think maybe part of it is like a scarishly worry like he is obviously like you know one of the best but the difference from him to like your replacement level wherever exactly that is. I don't think justifies like the early pick there's the more important things to do with that. Right. Yeah yeah that makes sense to me. I'm very intrigued by what Jess does this year. I've got one share. He's a lot of fun in a DC just having that corner middle option gives you just ton of flexibility but like you said if you're yeah you're taking a second round over a sover a scloser. Speaking of pictures Steve I believe you you had a decent amount of Drew Raspussen last year. Am I am I wrong about that? I think so. It's probably not enough but you know more than the half bridge I guess. Yeah sure nobody had enough Drew Raspussen last year but you know he was he was obviously very affordable and that's why you're saying you didn't have enough because he was going you know after pick 200 people just weren't very confident in him logging significant innings he'd thrown around 50 innings the the prior two years and then he throws 150 great innings last year does Drew Raspussen and so I was going to try to see if we could identify candidates to or I've got some candidates I was going to see if you could identify a leading candidate to be this year's Drew Raspussen where you're going after pick 200 and you're someone whose skills like this is big like we trust the skills and particularly the ratios that the ERA and the width so we're not that worried about these pictures sucking when they're out there but we are just worried a little bit about the workload and that's why they're going cheap so I came up with some of these candidates they're going after pick 200 you you can feel free to name someone I didn't list here but I some potential candidates Chris Boobitch with the Royals Matthew Boyd with the Cubs kind of the early with the Red Sox Shane McClanahan with the rays Joe Musgrove with the Padres Troy Melton with the Tigers Logan Henderson with the Brewers Gracie Rodriguez with the Angels Shamaniah with the Metz Braxton Ashcraft with the Pirates and Ryan Weathers with the Yankees so did one or two of those names jump out to you Steve I think so and there's different ways of thinking about this but like what seems interesting about Raspussen last year is that looking back it seems kind of like obvious that he could have done that like he'd never been bad right so like we shouldn't have been too surprised like you said like the skills were always there so just looking like for that model then I'd say like probably the Musgrove and McClanahan with the two that like you know for the most part they've always been good in their own amount injury concerns of it differently now immediately coming off of injuries I don't think Raspussen was it's just more like track record last year but in terms of people that have like been good especially with ratios when they're on the mound it's those two and like when I mentioned like I guess before we start recording like ready to like take some chances and fablite and stuff like those seem like good types to do that and make a lot of hand in particular where it's like yeah very easily could be a cut you know at some point but has them upside based on where he's going and based on the history again like when he actually has been on the mound yeah I mean McClanahan's basically going exactly where Raspussen was going last year and McClanahan in DCs since the start of the new year going around pick 240-ish men of 207 max of 289 from McClanahan and we got to we got to an update from pitching coach Kyle Snyder saying that McClanahan has looked really really good this offseason and is being totally built up to start with the expectation he'll be in Tampa Bay's rotation so yeah I mean it's just like like you said is that is that more of just like a fably pick for you have you taken McClanahan in any DCs I think I've got at least one DC and it is the kind of pick I think that is very easy to imagine it being you know July looking back and really wide and I have more you know given that it was so cheap and the potential was there but I'm not very good at OCS I don't do a whole lot of them but he seems like an ideal pick there you know where he got like really high upside and the replacement level is it's not that's worrisome if you do need to cut them so yeah hopefully I can get him in that context and then Musgrove is going just like right around the same range five picks earlier yeah I'm kind of upset that I don't have any Musgrove I I think you know he's I don't typically mind going after guys if they're this cheap coming back from Tommy John especially like a veteran and yeah like Musgrove like Oopsy Asim for 156 innings 377-era 119-Whip that's pretty solid it's like your SP 5 or 6 or whatever yeah and it's nice to the right together because you're if you're making like a plan you can just kind plan to have like an upside shot in that range yeah yeah definitely um okay Steve this is uh this is a first on the pod I've done well over man I don't even know how many pods have done thousands of pods but I've done over probably 300 400 of these prospect pods and I've never had someone ask about a guest coming on who was already booked and we had someone come into the road wire M.O.B discord room this past week asking if I was going to have you back on the show this offseason uh and I said you were coming on the very next week and when I said that he requested that we both mention um some players were taking at the end of drafts so I don't expect you to give out all your favorite late round darts or anything like that um but I was wondering if you could just we can we can kind of go back and forth and give a few players that were taking you know roughly rounds like 25 through 30 of of drafts with a night towards these these fab leagues we're about to start drafting so do you uh do you have a player you want to throw out there um sure um so I mean I'm a little bit reluctant but I guess I'm mostly done with these these um and that's that these are easier to pick the arrow though I think perhaps they'll have some some value hopefully in fab leagues so like Denzel Park is one I think I've gotten a lot um that's kind of been a a weird playing time projection I haven't done super deep into it but it's like the numbers just seem really low I don't see why he wouldn't be like full time if he's healthy um and um could be very low average but as we talked about earlier like there's ways to make that up and you never know you just go a little lucky on bad bit for improve the skills like somewhat and then it's a good value I think at that point yeah I've got uh like I've got Clark on two of my four DCs so far um I don't I'm with you like I think the the playing time you know he took Clark typically gets drafted on pick 400 um and he's just like they if they're gonna play Tyler Soderstrom in left field all year they're gonna need Clark and Centrifield all year and I think that they're willing to just let him play through like obviously if he's just like Christian Pache like they're they're not gonna just let him keep playing but if he's kind of just what he was last year I think they will just let him keep playing and um you know elite sprint speed uh elite bat speed and um you know we've seen you know when he gets a hold on he can hit it and he hit one over 470 feet last year he's six foot five um you know his big problem was uh ground balls uh one of his big problems with ground balls but um he's I think he's capable of of slightly improving that
that aspect and he's had times in the minors where it wasn't that big of a problem for him. So then just the added bonus of playing half his games in that park and Sacramento. So yeah, a lot to like there with Clark. So this is, I mean, I feel, I'm second guessing myself here, Steve, because you had some negative things to say about Jorge Saler earlier, but I'll just throw out the fact that I've got Jorge Saler on about half my teams, I think, as well. He's going right around Benzo Clark, again, around pick 400. And I think you're dead on that he could just be out of a job if he's sucking again this year. But you know, he, the most comparable year of Saler's career, I think to 2025 was his 2022 season, where his strikeout rate was up around 29%. ISO was below 200. And then he followed that year up with the second career, 35 plus Homer season. And I just, I think his seasons are just all over the place. Like he's just so, like he sort of strikes me as a guy where it's like if he had a good off season and like put in the work, like he probably went on to have a good year. And then if he didn't really, then he sucked because it's just not consistent really year to year with Saler. And he could definitely be washed up. I mean, he's old enough to be washed up. But I think the fact that it's a contract year, like if he wants to get one more big deal, he has to have a good year this year. Otherwise, he's just going to be out of the majors. So I think he will play every day as long as he's performing. And like you said, he might not be performing at all. But I do think there's a chance for a cheap 25 Homer season here from Saler with every day playing tonight. Yeah, that makes sense. I can see it. I'm trying to look at the death chart. So I guess if they just put the Dell and Center, right? Like just with the Josh Lowell kind of addition, I really thought through like all the ramifications there. But I think you're right. Like it's a bad enough team that if he's hitting, he should play. And he has bounced back from the kind of season that he had last year before. So that makes good sense. The only thing-- I don't know if this means a whole lot. But if you look at the trajectory of the last few years, it is up and down a lot. But the one thing these always had is the high-end EVs. And last year, it maxed EV was about two miles an hour slower than it had been any time recently. I don't know if that-- if there was just an injury, that's just kind of random because you did have fewer balls in the play to measure that on. But that's kind of something that stands out a little bit. Yeah, definitely. Yeah. Very good to point that out. All right, back to you, Steve. Yeah. So I don't know if I've gotten a whole lot. But definitely someone who does stay down that range is a mix of Rokai, I think. So asked your as a starter. He had an 18.5% K-MISBB. He was only 80, so eight or so index pitch. But that would have been top 20 long-quavar pitchers. If he had been able to keep that up, going super late, I think he has more upside than most in that range. And he has a job. So it's kind of that solid floor with some ceiling on top of it. So there's not a whole lot of pitchers that are appealing in that range. But he's one that I think stands out a little bit. Yeah, no, I-- Siroka kind of similarly to you. I like him. I just don't have that much of him yet. But he's-- I'll be interested to see how he looks in the spring to-- he might stay cheap throughout draft season. We'll see. So I've got one more-- or I've got a couple more pitchers. I'll start with Max Meyer of the Marlins, who is a significant innings risk. He's going around pick 395 in recent DCs. He might be going a little bit higher than that as we get closer to opening day, especially if he's looking good in the spring. But he showed a really, really high ceiling at the start of last year. And then injuries caught up with him as they seem to typically do. But I think he will basically just be in the rotation until he's not healthy. And he's cheap enough that even if that's only 8, 10, 12 starts or something like that, it might still be worth it. But I like the price on Max Meyer going around pick 400. That's a good one. I know I've seen plenty of tweets about certain filters. And he's one of those like, you know, stand up. A bunch of good pitchers. And then it's Max Meyer. But if you do a bucking ball present and swing strike or maybe ground ball just like that. So they seem like a good pick in that range. I think I've got one share, maybe, one or two. My last one's not great for fab legs. But it's probably the person that I had the most in that range. Garrett Clevveringer. It's more like a DC play. Whereas like, good ratios, you can leave them in. You'll probably get a few saves with a little bit of luck. And this is one of these standard cases where like if you think it's going to be a committee or a share of saves, like why not get the one who's going a lot later. Helping times that it works out and it's over the value. So I don't know how much appeal he has in a shallow fab league or even like a deeper fab league. But it's like a nice kind of DC piece. Yeah, I mean, I wish I had some Clevveringer now. Don't have any Clevveringer. I got one griff in Jax. So I don't know. What do you think? 15, 20 saves from Jax? Take the under on that? I would take the under on that. I don't know if I have a good reason necessarily. But I didn't get Jax, I think, in the meatball. But I'm not sure if I've got him since then. Anyway, just be like it's messy, mostly stay away. But he's going earlier than I would have thought at the outset of draft season. So that just seems a bit pricey for the level of certainty that we have. Now, if it looks like it's going to be him more often than not, then it works out well for people who got him at that price. But it's a pretty costly bet to make. Looking at like what, 158 ADP if I have? I know. It's a little too early for that, I think. Yeah, very wise. My last nomination here is Max Myers rotation mate, Braxton Garrett, also going around-- actually, he's going quite a bit late. He's going early 400s, mid 400s. And again, coming back from UCL revision surgery. So who knows how he looks early this spring. And I assume he'll be built up in time for a propening day. But a lot of risk with Braxton Garrett. But I just think if he is healthy, he's going to pitch in that rotation all season. And he's typically been quite good when he's been healthy. So I think it's a solid bet. Yeah, the projections. You compare it to people in that range, like Love Them. We really stand out. And they're not going to measure how much they're factoring in, like all the time off and so forth. But he's always like, he said, been pretty good. And if he's healthy now, not at all, that shot to take it, whatever. Pick that is 400 or almost 450. It looks like. Well, we did it, Steve. Thank you, man. It's been a lot of fun. And got anything else you want to say? Or should we just call it? Nothing comes of mind. Just thanks for having me on. I was good to chat. And I hope that whoever it was, that actually asked about me coming on as satisfied as well. I got you to give away three late picks. So he can't complain. We did what we came here to do. Steve, best of luck in the rest of your drafts. And especially in your 500 DC auction, I'm sure you'll have a lot of fun in that one, as I will in mine. And I look forward to seeing you in Vegas, man. Thanks again for coming up. Thank you.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Steve Weimer is a highly successful fantasy baseball player with exceptional league-winning statistics compared to average drafters.
The discussion covers draft strategies, including favoring auctions and Draft Champions (DCs), and building rosters with specialized hitters (e.g., power/speed or batting average specialists) to create flexibility.
Player analysis includes Oneil Cruz as a high-risk, high-reward pick due to platoon concerns, and older hitters like Jorge Soler (decline risk) and Marcus Semien (bounce-back potential) being evaluated for 2025 performance.
Summary:
In this podcast, host James Anderson interviews fantasy baseball expert Steve Weimer, highlighting his impressive track record of success in deep leagues. They discuss draft preferences, with Weimer favoring Draft Champions (DC) and auction formats for their strategic flexibility. , power/speed or high batting average) to create categorical advantages and adaptability throughout the season.
Specific players are analyzed, including Oneil Cruz, whose platoon risk is noted, and older hitters like Jorge Soler (seen as a decline risk) and Marcus Semien (identified as a bounce-back candidate). Weimer advocates for zagging against consensus strategies to find value, particularly in batting average and stolen base specialists, while acknowledging the unpredictability of categorical needs post-draft.
FAQs
Steve Weimer's favorite NFBC contest is the $500 DC auction, as it combines elements of both draft championships and auctions, fitting his conservative auction style well.
Steve Weimer sometimes targets hitters with extreme strengths and weaknesses early, then backfills with complementary players, allowing flexibility to adjust categories like batting average or steals throughout the season.
He believes specialists can be undervalued when others focus on well-rounded players, creating opportunities to zag and build categorical advantages, especially in batting average or steals.
Steve Weimer identifies Jorge Polanco and Trevor Story as risks due to age, injury history, and potential regression from their 2025 performance gains, with Story's defense being a particular concern.
He sees Marcus Semien as a strong bounce-back candidate due to his consistent skills and playing time upside, and Adolis Garcia as a potential value given his stable underlying skills and opportunity with the Phillies.
Steve Weimer views Oneil Cruz as a value pick with discounted ADP due to a down year, noting his power-speed combo provides a floor, though platoon risks and batting average concerns remain.
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