How to Best Monetize Great Projections in 2026 (ETR Debate) | Ep 140

I've not seen or heard any possible way where you can release the goods and have that, have your cake and eat it too there. Meaning, if you are releasing your full projections, your IP, that is not going to be IP forever. You are giving away your IP. What's up everybody? GP SP here. Flying solo, just, you know, going to really have some media ochre research takes on some news items and a lot of good questions. But, uh, but yeah, this is, uh, it's always, it's always exciting to, to get to have a nice back and forth with the SP, not that we don't love our guests. But I also appreciate these episodes. Yeah, these ones are always a little, uh, lower pressure. You know, for this one, we actually had a, had a main topic lined up. We'll, we'll leave the, uh, the listeners guessing what that is. We got so many great questions this week that we, we are kicking our, our planned main topic down the road. We will do that at a later date. So we appreciate, you know, everybody asking a question that's, that's honestly probably the hardest part about this show is coming up stuff to talk about, um, for that. So why don't you kick off what we're actually going to talk about it. Sure. Sure. And I'll say for the main topic, like, the reason we punted this one is, I think it's a pretty good one. And we can actually talk about it for a while. So we didn't want to, um, you know, we don't want to burn it when we don't have to keep it too short. So just, just, uh, stay tuned for this one. It's just a really dorky modeling one that I think everybody will like. So this one, the reason that we ended up kind of deciding to kick the main topic is because there was one question and kind of like one, um, I guess conversation on gambling Twitter that we think could kind of sub in for main topic because I think it has a lot of, it speaks a lot to, you know, the way the industry is going, kind of how to best monetize being smart in the industry, having a good model in the industry. Like I think it's like a very topical and important, um, discussion for, you know, for us and the people that listen to this show basically. And it is the ETR, um, question that big, but well, that Louis kind of tweeted about and then big book Hunter retweeted in our replies and said, what would you do if you're the CEO of ETR? So, so basically this, this is, this is, this is Louis, um, kind of, uh, cause as you heard when he was on our podcast, like talking about ETR and whatnot, but basically what happened was in the ETR Discord, Louis shared a screenshot of this and, um, one of the heads of ETR wrote that they are making a change to how they release their projections. So, if you're not familiar with ETR, they are basically, I would call them like a prop originator, um, tout, ish service is like kind of hard to place, but they have, they're very well respected, their numbers are extremely well respected and they definitely win against the lines that they could bet. So, they're, you know, a lot of people pay attention to them. So, they release a couple of different products. One of them is a fantasy product and this is all kind of under the lens of basketball. So, what happens is at 12, they'll release the ETR fantasy projections. So, that will be like a draft king's, uh, projection for fantasy points for a player and then along with that, they'll have a projected minutes for that player. And then at five o'clock, what they'll do is they'll release their stat projections. And that's what a lot of people will use to bet player props. So, not only will, uh, you get their minutes, but then the players will also have, you know, projected for 3.9 assists and, you know, 19.2 points and 0.8 blocks and stuff like that. So, that's where a lot of people, uh, you know, use that information to bet player props in basketball. So, let's circle back to the beginning of the fantasy thing. So, they said they're going to make some changes to the release of the first thing, the 12 o'clock release, which is the fantasy points in the minutes. And they're saying they're leaving the minutes hidden until 5 p.m. when they release the, um, the player prop projections. And then they're adding randomness to the fantasy points projections. And what that will do is it will basically keep the rank the same. So, each player, if you, you know, if you were to sort by rank under the true fantasy points and the random adjusted ones, they would be the same rank, but the fantasy points would be an order of magnitude bigger. I mean, SP, we were talking about this pre-call because we want to make sure like we both were thinking the same thing. And like, I think we're thinking that they mean they'll multiply the fantasy points by some number, right? That's, that's how I interpreted it. Basically, to preserve the, the rank for anybody doing like drafts, like, stuff like on underdog or whatever. But, but adding randomness to so that you don't have the exact number, right? Right. So that was how I interpreted it. If, if we're wrong on that, you know, that's just, we were reading it the wrong way, but that's how I interpreted it. And I think the last kind of piece to this is why, why they're doing this. And basically, they're doing it because of two reasons they believe that people are reverse engineering, the fan, the, basically the, the player prop numbers, averages that drop at five, using the fantasy points that drop at 12. So basically front running the the drop. And then that other sites are stealing their minutes at 12, like other sites that do projections are stealing the minutes that they drop at 12 for their own. So anyway, that's the change. So Louis retweeted it with some commentary around, you know, ETR, not being great. I mean, if you listen to Louis episode, he kind of, I'm not going to rehash his full, you know, ETR beef, but basically just kind of saying like, up, here's another example of ETR, like not, not being great. And then big buck undergreet tweeted, Louis saying, what would you do if you were the CEO of ETR? And then I got it out full disclosure. I got DM from Taylor, KB who is the CEO of ETR saying, please answer this question. So, you know, Taylor, Taylor's, you know, full disclosure very much like Taylor had a couple conversations with him. And he was a true crusher in the online poker space, like a real legend. So ETR is definitely run by smart, sharp people. And I think this is like a very interesting question, especially as now the industry starts shifting towards more of a, like, I think this is a different question, SP. Now then it would have been like a year ago. I don't know if you agree with that or not, but like, I think it's like very different after the rise of prediction markets. Yeah, I would definitely say it's different. It's hard not to, you know, like when you said that, it's hard not to get like swelled up in the moment. Like, is this, and I will talk about some of that and, and like as a business, how you got to think through like long term or at least my two cents. But I guess maybe before getting into all this, the way I was thinking through this question is sort of we can, we can frame up this specific issue, you know, like with what ETR is doing. Then, you know, I wrote down some thoughts about like these types of businesses and just real broad. And then maybe circling back to like Big Buck Hunter's question of exactly what I would do if I was in this situation. I'll say like it should be very obvious that I have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to any of this. Like I'm not in the ETR. I was going to be so disappointed. I know. You know, he's getting what he's what he's paying for here. So, you know, I think it's really interesting. Like that's why we wanted to do this is we wanted to talk about this for enough time to do it justice. And so I do think it's really interesting. But I just wanted to to preface with some of that. And I guess one other thing before I maybe turn it back over to you to get your thoughts on maybe the maybe we focus on the specific this case first. Like in how they're handling it. The one thing I'll say about you know, ETR and you had mentioned it is like first off, like they have very smart people there. You know, like I don't know any of them personally. They have very smart people here. I can assure you that they're thinking about all of this stuff. So when we say something, I'm very confident they will have thought about basically everything we talked about, maybe there will be something not, but they have smart people, like you said, who are probably thinking about this stuff. The other thing I'll say is that probably gets missed on a segment of the side of gambling Twitter that was interacting with the story and whatnot. It's like ETR is a huge company that does a bunch of other stuff except this or besides this. I have no insight, but their prop sort of offering is probably, my guess would be it's a relatively small part of their actual business today. They are enormously popular when it comes to season-long fantasy and that type of stuff. That's where the founders came from. They weren't like, you know, sort of DFS, they weren't, they were less, I know levittand stuff like, you know, was in DFS, but they have like a bunch of other products and businesses beyond like this. So I just wanted to call that out because I think when we're going to have this conversation, it's going to get really easy for us to like narrow in on, you should do this with your business and we're going to get narrowed in until like this very specific product probably, like NBA projections. But I think, you know, if you're a business owner, you need to be understanding how that piece connects to everything else, right? Like, there's probably cross-selling aspects and all this stuff that we're probably not going to talk about here. So it's not that we're unaware of them or whatever, it's just, it's going to be hard to, like we don't have a line of sight into, you know, the full business and cross-selling and all these, you know, aspects that you know, talk about. Yeah, I'm curious to your thoughts on how they actually handled this. Do you think this is a good, good solution? I mean, it definitely was happening. So they're right. Like they're right about what's going on. So you have people basically using the 12 p.m. release to front, around the five. And like that for sure is, is, you know, happening and like it, like I'm trying to think of like what, I think it just goes into the broader issue of like, it's an unsolvable problem. We're like, okay, so now people aren't going to front-run the five, right? Or who knows, you know, there's, I was going to say like, are they not because like, I mean, this is where we were talking about it. Right. Like to really do this well and like actually not be, you know, not like make your, your 12 p.m. like obfuscated. Like, I don't think you can just add a multiply of a 25 percent. Or, and I know they're going to change your day by day. So some day, like the way I interpret it some days, it's going to be five. Some days it's going to be two. Like anybody who's trying is going to be able to figure out what that percent is. Reasonably quickly. Like you could build a model to basically like guess that percent. Yeah. Exactly. So I mean, and this is the problem. This is the problem because you have the people that were just betting the five p.m. And what happened is basically your sharper like, you know, more rascal group of subs was like, you know, you can't really get much on the five. Like when the five releases, everything's gone. But you know what? There's a 12, 12 release. And it's not everything. But I mean, they have draft Kings fantasy points. That's probably pretty close to a player's like points are going to assist. And like we can probably do something with that, right? So you have that group who, who now has decided like they're going to basically guess the projections. And then that group's still going to be trying to do what S.P. was talking about. Like they will also try and do that. If they've already done this, like the people that that the five p.m. release and like just are kind of like either losing or break even better is who are using this as like, okay, this is like one strategy. I have that that can win. But I don't really know. Not really doing much on my own. They're not the people that are doing the 12 o'clock thing. The people that are doing the 12 o'clock thing are like pros, semi-proves, you know, serious, serious betters. So is this even going to move the needle on confusing those that already small subset? Like I don't think so. I don't know. But I think it's just like a real, it's a real issue with this type of business. And we can talk about the actual business stuff later. So I won't dive into that. But I mean, I think the, I mean, is the issue that they want to bet props? Like they want to bet their own props for a bit between 12 and 5. Was that in the message? I actually, I need to go back and re-read it. You mean like the ETR is one of them? Yeah. I mean, I don't think so. Like there's, you know, there's always going to be like allegations with any type of service like this of the service, like this is true of any tout service or play service or projection service is always going to be the worry about front running. I've not seen any credible evidence of that ever. It doesn't mean it doesn't exist. But like, oh, okay. Sorry, I was re-reading it and it was like, it'll give our team more time to source bets while providing less early information to the market. Right. They do like formal releases like similar to like, like, as a draft king. Yeah. This guy, you know, okay, okay. So I mean, I guess my two cents is the change they made. I understand why they made it. I, in my opinion, I don't think it effectively will do anything. Because like I said, it seems fairly straightforward with anybody who's, who's trying at all to get pretty damn close at the noon, even with a little bit of randomness added. And if you're still releasing the full projections at 5 p.m. And this is where we're going to get into some more like the themes that here is, is there's no, I've not heard and I'm, you know, maybe we'll get some good ideas in the comments and stuff that when this drops. I've not seen or heard any possible way where you can release like the goods and have that like have your cake and eat it to there. Like, meaning if you are releasing your, your full projections, your IP, like, that is not going to be IP forever. You are giving away your IP and someone is going to recreate it and do it, do it better. And that's just the unfortunate reality of this, this industry, like you just can't keep giving it away forever. Like people are smart and ambitious and will, will, you know, solve it. So like the fact that they're still giving away like the full detail at 5 p.m. I, we've talked about it on this show before, like one of the best ways to get good at modeling is when you have these sources of truth that are good. Like if I, if I wanted to be an NBA prop better, what I would do is, you know, every day I'd come up with my numbers. I'd compare them to ETR at 5 p.m. I'd fix where I'm wrong. I try and improve on what they're doing where I think they're missing things. And eventually I could front run like all their stuff. So they can do, they can try as hard as they possibly want to like keep it out of, like keep keep that cycle from happening and obviously they can continue to improve and everything. But as soon as it's public, like you don't control it, you know, there's no customer filtering or anything you can do as soon as it's public to one person, it's public to everybody. Yeah. And the thing about that too is it only takes that one person to. So when everybody, you know, it only takes one person who's just like, got, you know, figured out the, the easiest, the fastest way to calculate the adjustment. And then as they run a big enough operation, like 100 percent. It's the same fact as, you know, having 20 people who were kind of moving it off. The last iteration was easier. So maybe there's a few more people. But once one big person knows what to do, you know, it's kind of the same effect. So yeah, I, okay. So we should, okay, let's talk about this portion of ETR's business. And like, like what you said, like somebody like a site that actually, as you said, has the goods. So many of these places don't have the goods. That's why ETR is so interesting because like usually you'd be like, well, they should just keep selling shit because they suck. And like there, like whatever, you know, but like there's a few weird exceptions. I think that's why like everybody's kind of fascinated with the T.R. is like they are that like unicorn site that actually wins, but also releases public. It's kind of like data golf, but like even to a higher, to a higher level, I think because ETR has like a team of people who are projecting like their own minutes and doing like very complicated or like at least like semi-subjective, like ball, no, he typed. things. It's a true operation. I think we had a question about what would you do if you had good projections but didn't want to trade. It's kind of the same advice there. It's like I kind of think there's a B2B case for ETR or a D2C. They could just become they could spin up their own trading kind of operation on the prediction markets or they could sell their numbers to like a big market maker and like a SIG, you know, maybe if SIG wants to buy or SIG knows what to do with it or you know, whoever to me, you know, they're the right price, a cheap price, Taylor, you're listening. No, but like something along those lines for your like really for the stuff that makes money when you through betting, I think is the key. And then SP mentioned a lot of good points about like the rest of the business, but I'd probably think like, I don't know, it's hard because they're whole business model is it's easy to say like, oh yeah, you should just like go in internal I was in bet your numbers, but they've spent like there's just a lot of like operational cost and inertia and stuff that goes into like building a business and they've built a lot of the rails that like allow them to sell essentially an information product. So it's like, I don't think the pivot is as easy as everyone makes it seem, but I think that just going down the route of thinking about a B2B branch of ETR kind of like how odd shim has optic odds is how I would like generally think about it. Obviously the how you would actually structure it is is you know, I probably above my pay grade, but also like a really long topic that you know, I think the ETR people have a better understanding of, but like I think if you generally decide like, how can we split our business into like consumer facing and B2B would be my my hunch, my first thought. Yeah, it's funny. The so I have two answers for what I do as a CEO. One of mine was basically exactly that. It was to to to to bifurcate the business into more of a business to business sort of segment similar to odds jam and then have a consumer facing. I'll talk a little bit about like how I would actually do that, but maybe before getting into some of that, like I just wanted to share like because obviously the sentiment that like was shared on Twitter when this is and everybody likes to dunk on everything was like just pet your numbers, just like trade on prediction markets. So I just want to echo your point that the pivot is like it's not that simple probably like if you're running like a first off like these these businesses, I think people probably vastly underrate how much money these businesses are actually making would be my guess. Like I'm guessing if you you asked like the average gambling Twitter person, how much does how much is it you are like revenue a year or whatever profit a year. I'm guessing they would be grossly under estimating that. So like that's the first part. The second part I want to say was I understand the like how they got into the situation and the alert of this because you know everybody again on gambling Twitter likes to say like just pet your numbers or whatever. But and so maybe this is a hot take, but like at the end of day like any business is going to have higher ceiling than than betting for the most part, right? Like the the highest grossing sports betting businesses like I won't even get into like true true outliers of like top one or two people or whatever top one or two businesses, but like a 95th percentile sports betting business is like doing way better than a 95th percentile like sports better. And so yes, it's not even close and so like there's a lot of a lure to this like if you just look at some some examples over the past, you know, what our decade decade and a half of like odds jam action network, roto grinders, you could even go to like I know they're not like in this this business, but some of the enormous ones like sport radar genius or whatever like those are enormous companies that right just that your life feed that your life feed right exactly that would be the that's like what people would say to these these people is like that your life feed and hear a sport radar like it's like it's like that meme of the guy on the couch like it was just like the pot belly it someone pulled it out for the TGA tour event when Blades Brown like missed the pot for 59 and the guy's like oh you can't leave that outside the cup for 59. That's right that's exactly what I just want to like anchor people to that as like that is undoubtedly true and so if you're going for like big big business is always going to be like the more attractive the more attractive route I mean it's hard right because we don't we don't have like insight into their you know financials or anything when we're doing this but I do think the sort of the bifurcation is the route I would go so I'm curious like what yeah I know you mentioned like to me the prediction market stuff sounds great right now but again if you're running a business like are you really going to pivot you know like to prediction markets and then in two years like a huge chunk of your business is gone like that that's you know for us or whatever like we can we can go all in and hope it works out like if you're running a business that might be an untenable risk like that that there's no reason to take right so right yeah I think that's a good point to also just remember like they're still life outside of prediction markets and there's no reason that you can't if you're going B to B like work with like a flop or somebody or like a version of flop that's even bigger that can like get down across tons of wreck books and and whatever along with working with like on a profit share with a big market maker or something or whatever you want to structure that out but like I think it's a great point that you want to squeeze all the B to B you can out of your numbers because like you make your numbers and then you know you need to figure out how to get everything you basically can out of them especially if you're betting them which is like the kind of the same thing we talk about it's like the big the big thing in sports betting is like you have a good number like this a lot of the skills like how much can you get out of that though you know so they would be doing that a huge scale and I'd I mean I have no clue what their payrolls like and everything but I don't know I think they could I think that could make sense for them make they'd have to make like you really have to pick the right businesses to partner with and especially if you're gonna do like a profit share so it's gonna be a bit like I would feel like if I was in Taylor shoes like that would be risky but what I wouldn't want to do is like I wouldn't want to get into like a B to B pricing tier where now I charge like 10 grand for it because like you charge 10 grand for your projections or whatever a month that seems like a lot but like who's gonna buy it uh the five 10 15 20 biggest bettors and then like it'll still get smashed and you know they'll start to get pissed off that they can't get anything down and it'll probably revert to just a few subs or some equal room right so I I think that's like a tricky like how do you price that B2B like how exactly do you kind of max your earn I still think it's probably some type of partnership but like that does feel kind of risky you're like you're like hey like I know like I'm running this super legit business where we have like a healthcare plan and all this but uh yeah we're gonna be sending we're gonna be sending bets to like Jose in Puerto Rico who has like all these runners and like that's just gonna get paid but like it is it's this not easy question right and like if you're goal and I have no idea but like if your goal is to get acquired or sell someday like that's not really like that's not necessarily a tenable option so let's let's get into what what we would do before I get into what I would do I wrote down my uh I wrote down three fundamental truths of sports betting content okay so the first one the only place actual big money comes from is the operators so you're not if you're not if you're in the ecosystem but your money is not coming from the operators you can have like a good business you can have you can make a lot of money a lifestyle business whatever but you're never gonna do like the odds jam rotor grinders whatever sales so like you need to if you really Thank you very much. to make it big, big. You got to get your customer needs to be the sportsbooks or one of those entities. So that's rule one, rule two, very few people actually want any smart. People weigh overestimate the amount of people who want smart tools or content. In reality, people want stuff that's easy and entertaining. That's all they want. So if I drill it down to like odds jam, odds jam was like, is it extremely easy to use? You just like go on there. There's a nice green square. You click it. It bets for you. Beautiful. You're done. If I contrast that to something like that's way more interesting or whatever that cool to me, like whatever, like the unadbated season simulator, like way too complicated. Nobody wants to do that. Like put in their own numbers. It's not going to work. So nobody actually wants like any of that. They want easy. So that's rule two. Rule three is, I think I already mentioned it, is you distribute your product, your IP, your picks, your projections to one person. You've distributed it to everybody. And you can't get mad about that. Like in my view, like this has been going on in DFS for actually a long time of like these lawsuit threats of like your copying our projections. No, you know, like your copying art. And now I see it with like, you know, touts and aggregating plays and stuff. It's like, if you're releasing your plays, in my opinion, you cannot be mad at that. Right. What people are doing with them. Like that's my, I know there's probably like legal aspects to it. I want to that. It just seems so silly to me to get mad about it as soon as you release it. So those are my three. So with that, like what I would do, if I was the CEO of of ETR and wanted to make as much money as possible and like still be like reasonably ethical, like not totally out of the, out of bounds is I'd sort of go the odds jam route where I would, I would double down and on my, my consumer facing product, but I would do it in a way that actually serves those customers what they want. So those customers, like do not care about minutes projections and those customers do not care about the best projections in the world even they don't care about any of that. They subscribe to your company because they like you, they like your podcasts, they like, you know, your content, they want to, you know, upload your ranks or whatever and feel smart. They want to be in the community like all of that stuff. That's why that segment of customers is your customers. So what I would do is I would strip away a lot of the transparency and actual IP from those products. So like when, when we're talking about, you know, NBA projections or whatever, I would, I would, I would strip out as much stuff that is leaking IP as possible. So maybe that's just like a fantasy point projection. I know they do that in some sports where they don't even give full stat projections. Maybe that's just rankings, like not even projections. The reality is there's going to be, people who have really upset about that. But those aren't the, those are, in my opinion, those are not the customers like for that product. You're going to, you have tons of customers who are just like dads who like season long fantasy football and like to listen to your podcasts. So you have this problem where you're giving the wrong product to two different groups. You're giving a product that's way too advanced for one group and it's, and it's, you know, probably overpriced price relative to what they need it for. And you're giving this product that's like vastly, vastly, vastly underpriced to another group of people. And so I would try and split it up that way. Yeah, that, I honestly like, I can't even really add, add much to that. I think that that's exactly it. And the one thing I was going to, the one thing I was going to say was doing some kind of like going more, and I think this, this fits in with what you're saying is like going, I was going to say like more the razz route, but I don't, I don't want to put that on. ETR. But like, I just do think that scalable, like in any sort of way. Right. But like if, if you are going to have some consumer facing like props, tight release, you can still release like a few props a day, or like one or two props a day. And like the ROI will be there, right? So if like, if you were going to want to do anything like that, then I think it should only be bet releases. Because it's the same thing that that SP said is like, who wants the minutes? Louis. Now actually, we know that it's Louis and doesn't use minutes. Louis, Jr. maybe. Yeah. Like do you really need to be selling Louis, Jr. minutes for 50 bucks a month? Yeah. No. She's just selling for 5,000 bucks a month. Right. Right. So that's the problem. It's just it's so, with this is true of any product, but especially with sports betting content, like the amount you need to charge different people is so vastly different. Right. And it just, it's not tenable to do it that way. Right. So that's where I think you just need to have separate like businesses, basically. And you're, you're actual, your products that like actually have IP and all this stuff that's, that you work really hard to do, you cannot be selling it to, to me for 50 dollars. You can't have these, you know, like it just shouldn't be, you can't sell it to people who are trying for as little as you're selling it. The other avenue I want to touch on, which I think they already do, but like, you brought it up with their, they have a lot of like podcasts that are very popular and do really well in terms of like numbers. You have, you know, people who are well liked and followed in social media and all this stuff. So I think that, and this is like what Audrey I'm kind of did. It's a little different, but it's kind of the Rodeo Granderson where it's like, you can lean more into content and referrals. I know the referral money is is not what it used to be. So that's maybe one one issue there, but like you can have, like that fits nicely with your consumer facing is, you know, sports book signups and stuff like that. Whereas like, you're not going to get sharps to sign up using the ETR code probably. I mean, first of all, like everybody has their, you know, is on their 30th account and they're probably not trying to put ETR in their referral, but like you can do a nice referral business and tie it in with like, like SP said, recreationals, season long stuff and just stuff that, that, you know, being part of the community and being part of the community that could involve like a couple prop releases, you know, one or two a day. I mean, you know, there's probably, there's probably a ton of off market stuff they see in basketball. So giving like a couple away as part of a package, like a community package or something like that feels like a great idea and then having the B to B. So like, I think it's just like, how can you get something that makes sense with the customers that would be in the consumer facing and then, you know, what is super like SP said, like what's what are the they what are the sharps like, vastly underpaying for and those people don't care about. And then at the same time, like what's something a sharp like has no interest in, but it's actually kind of valuable. And to me, that would be like the referral type business, which you could like tack on to your B to C. Right. I'd written that down as like the affiliate marketing, like that's that's a dirty, like I'm guessing people over there, I know they do some of it, you know, but there's people who feel sort of dirty about that. Sure. But if you're trying to make as much money as possible, that seem like if we're going to my first law of sports betting content, like you need to get the money from the operators, that's certainly one way to do it. The last thing I really, I know we've got sort of long on this already, but the only other thing I want to mention is I think the universe of what that B to B business probably people like are so narrow minded on like the prediction market stuff right now. But like literally five years ago, I was tweeting about like if I had one of these sites and I had good play by play Sims, you would ever for these sports, which is when they, like all these companies started doing this stuff. Like I would have tried to sell this to like an SGP, like a company who's like like an odds provider. Like that seems like the best, the best, like that seems like that has high, high stability. If I'm trying to put myself in ETR shoes with like, you're dealing with people in suits, you're not dealing with people in gym shorts, like in whatever Costa Rica, like you're selling your product and you can lease it, you can do all sorts of things and prove it, rev share, all this stuff like other odds providers do. And so like that seems like a really good fit to be where it makes a lot of sense and you're actually sort of like like Ed Miller and David Auz company. What was the name of that? It was like a live company. I can't remember the name of it. But it was hot, it was hot all but it was something else before that. - Right, that was an effect. - Deccrism? - That's right. Yeah, right. And so they effectively built it and then sold it to. And so like, yeah, so that to me seems like a no brainer. Like, you know, the last part, like what I would personally do, and this is just like a personal question, like dealing with a zillion customers and all this stuff seems like not what I would want to do. I would much rather work with like fewer customers and make like equivalent or even a little less money. But that's like a me thing. So like I would love, like if it were me, that's like what I would be doing. Is I would be trying to find like key partners whether it is prediction markets or odds providers or whatever to sell all the hard work and IP at the actual right price to customers who can really leverage it and try instead of trying to like explain to people who frankly don't really care how good your product is. Like the vast majority of people that you're dealing with on a day to day basis, they might say they care. They might think they care. They don't care. They're just there for like the entertainment and vibes. So like I think you could do both. And you know, I understand they get a lot of pushback from like the people who, you know, are getting outsized value from ETR now. And there'd be like a very loud, executive people on Twitter. But to me, that's like, that's what I would do. So Taylor, you got what you paid for. Like I said, well, the invoice will be in your DMs. No, I think that's, I love that. Like build a, yeah, because it's like kind of like OGM does it with optic odds, right? Like their product was to basically like give people the fastest arbitrage opportunities. But then they realized like they had all this sportsbook data that was incredibly fast. And then they could just sell that as a pricing feed to sportsbooks. It's literally the same thing here, like except for ETR's mode is more defensible because their stuff's originated. Whereas like theoretically, you could build your own little version of optic odds, whereas it would be much harder to build a version of ETR, you know, proper origination or whatever. And props are huge now. I love it. - And the SGP stuff, right? Like that's the thing about DFS. Like the DFS people have a distinct advantage or they should because they have like similes and they had sims like before a lot of people, right? And so they should be able to capture the correlation stuff well and just give all these sportsbooks more comfort in those products. Obviously they build a ton of margin in today. So maybe you can make the argument it doesn't matter that they wouldn't want it or whatever. I think if you could sell one of those companies, like this is locked in, you can feel very confident that we're capturing everything, right? Like I think that would be a huge selling point to their companies. I would think just to reduce like the blowup spots and like the- - As I said, Henry would be your first customer, you know? - Right, yeah, yeah, exactly. And you, the companies don't want to limit people, right? So if they're, if they would be able to not limit more people because they have better trust in their software, like that would be a good thing for them as well. So yeah, they didn't listen. - That was fun. All right, let's go to quickly the news and then we'll hit back on the other questions, right? Okay, a couple of Colchia items, you know, they hired a head of government relations who is a Democrat as noted in our outline, which I think, you know, I think you'd say like Colchia probably skews Republican because of, you know, their connections with the Trump administration or whatnot. So this could be a, you know, a good step into, this could just be another politically savvy move by Colchia, I don't know. - Yeah, I think, you know, they, in the article at headline, I saw it was, you know, getting ready for the upcoming, not presidential, actually, but whatever midterms. - Midterms. - So yeah, trying to, trying to make sure that they are covered from all sides. There's like actually, you know, a couple of Colchia stories here, the new head of the CFTC came in and had some quotes. I thought it was, I think I quoted this tweet about him highlighting, you know, prediction markets as a way to hedge risk and forecast truth. So he's clearly gotten like the, - That's right. - He's gotten the pitch, he's gotten the pitch, he's on his, - No, he's not. - That's like that by himself. - Come on. - So, so that lobbying effort is working well. So good to see that. The other Colchia items I had were, Colchia seems to be like doing like a PR tour, I read an article on this, like, Colchia seems to really be trying to lean into the messaging that Polymarket is like the one to blame for all this insider trading. And it's like not happening on their site. I think one of the, the founders, you know, had a quote or something that was like, this would never happen on our site, which is just hilarious. - Right, I mean, it's just so fun. It is like in one way they're so savvy, like politically, like, okay, we're gonna start this head of government relations and et cetera. But then it's like, it almost feels like then they just go and like shoot themselves in the foot. It's like, why are you, like, this is just so a, not true, and b, - But I think it's working. Like, you say that, but I think it's working. - Like not on the people of gambling Twitter, but like I could totally see this work. Like they're trying to sort of, what I think like my opinion, like the long play here is like to make Polymarket seem like sketch because it has all this outside the US business. And like, I think they always refer to Polymarket as like offshore to like, connotate it with the offshore. So trying to like throw a cloud over that. I think it's, you know, you could say what you will about like the ethics or whatever about it. But I think it's good strategy. Like I think it'll work on people on politicians, I mean. - The rare, the rare, just the two of us technical difficulties just went on. So I think we were probably, who knows if we have this record, but we were probably talking about the Polymarket college you think. But what I wanted to say is like, I understand like the strategically like wanting to kind of position yourself advantageously relative to your closest competitor. But I think one thing that like, Draft Kings and Fandall did well was they like, allied at the important things. And they didn't like, I don't know. I just felt like like obviously they were clearly, they're clearly still to top two, always were in the DFS space coming up. I'm sure that you have more tales of how like, they kind of trashed each other. Then, you know, I knew about these, you're more involved in that space, but like, they did, I think like, remain allies when it was in their best interests. And like when you're fighting a kind of uphill battle like legally and everything, like you may want to keep that door open to be able to kind of combine forces to save like the industry, which you both are basically the top two players in like you kind of combine to make up the industry. So, you know, that would be my one comment. - Yeah, Draft Kings and Fandall actually tried to merge at one point just because a legal battle was so, the legal costs were so high and they were trying to, you know, sort of team together on that front. So, yeah, I think that's a very good point. I think it would be negative for both companies to engage in the mudslinging that cast the industry end out. So like, if you're highlighting like insider trading or playing fast and loose with like the self-certifying of certain contracts or whatever, like that, to me, the end result of that is people say they don't want this as a pro, like people get law make, saying this, we just don't want this at all. So yeah, I think it's probably a fine line to walk if you're about to these companies. I think that's a good point. - Okay, we can do, we talked about Massachusetts thing. Was there any new news? I know Kyle she like filed some legal magic document type thing, I don't know how law works, but they filed something to stop the filing from Massachusetts outlaw the contracts. What do you know about this? Anything more? - Right, yeah, it's pretty obvious. - The legal legal lease. - Legal lease going on, it just reminded me of the meme of like, ah, you know, all the prediction record haters, if how will they, they wriggle out of this one and wriggle out of this one? So they're still offering sports contracts. It's obviously like influx, but yeah. - Open bet and sport rate are, do not renew the AGA for 2026. I actually didn't know that the providers were like part of the AGA. So that was kind of the first thing I noticed. Like obviously, there are two biggest customers left the AGA, Fandall and DraftKings. So I think it's all aligned with that, right? They're probably saying like, I'm guessing all members of the AGA are sort of being put pressure on that. Like we're not going to be doing prediction market stuff either with, you know, for or against us. And they're like, bye. They're just too coming in there. All right. You know, good luck. Yeah, the AGA is like starting to shape up as like a pre-DFS casino lobby at this point. Like it's like all the companies that would have been in the AGA before DFS are now the ones that are in the AGA. Yeah, I think that's well said. I mean, I think the DFS and now, you know, sports betting companies, you know, people might cringe at this, but they're like much more of like technology companies than anything else probably. And the old legacy are certainly not technology companies. They're like more traditional hospitality or, you know, whatever, consider them. So yeah, I think I think it's split back sort of. They sort of had this transition phase where all they're in just for a line up, but DraftKings and Fandall. And, you know, so, you know, Fanatics and some of the other ones that we maybe have, we're more forward thinking are, you know, moving on to the next thing. Right. No big applies to become CFTC regulated prediction market. I mean, I think we all saw this coming. Nobody's gonna really pat themselves on the back too hard for, quote, unquote, calling this, but, you know, I think we've, we've generally come up very positive. Putting you on the spot on this one, what is the percentage that no big, and we'll do no big because they're the ones who just applied, I know profit applied. What is the percentage that they ever actually get this license? I think it's probably over over 50%. I honestly have no good idea. I know it takes forever. I mean, it takes forever, I know. And, you know, like just a lot can change with the rules and whatnot. So I thought it was an interesting, interesting question. I guess it's predicated on like, we, we had very recently reported they raised like a pretty big round. I imagine that as, you know, the people investing in that round were like thinking that this would happen. So I'm just kind of like, I think it's top down. I like it. Yeah, I'm top down. This is a full top down to, you know, to kind of copy flop and no big, we've had a lot of great, no big employees on the show. And the other reason is, you know, I think the people there are, you know, they're smart, they're smart bunch. And though I know that they're doing everything they can to get this is clear where the money is. So it's kind of a double top down approach. I guess the only other thing I was just going to say on that is like, I could see a world, like if you're, if you're Calci or, you know, I guess even like Draft Kings or Fandall or who bought these licenses, you have every incentive now to shut the door. Right. Like behind you. So that's the other part of like what the percentage is, is like, there's a very real world where, you know, they get in there, they start lobbying. And they want to add these regulations, like, you know, that supposedly helped a consumer and protect for insider trading and next thing. Right. It's so totally onerous for the novigs and the profits to actually get in the door. So it'll be interesting. Like, like Polymarket and Colishek also probably should remain friendly so they can just shut the door on a bunch of other people. Yeah, exactly. I mean, you know, just going back to that. But do you have any more on the novig? No, no, that was it. This one was interesting. So this is the MMA fight that got canceled due to suspicious betting activity. The first I heard of it was Dave Mason's tweet from Beton Line. Did you see that one? Yes. That's the first I saw it. OK. Where he was like, yeah, look, this fight we're going to take way smaller than normal limits. And we're not going to offer props. And I think that was just a tweet. But because there's suspicious activity. And then the fight ends up getting canceled, which is wild. I mean, and he said, like, this is not-- yeah, I don't know. He's like, this isn't saying like it is exactly his rigged. But like, I don't like what I'm saying. Is I feel like the subtext of the tweet? And then it gets canceled. I don't know. Are people just like doing a really bad job inside of trading right now? So I saw some tweet in discussion about it. I got the impression it was like someone knew about it. And at least what I heard, this is all speculation, was like some injury type of thing. I was actually making MMA, DFS lineups right before flight. And I saw this and I'm like, OK, I don't know who it's rigged. It sounds like it's going to be rigged or not rigged. But there's some sort of-- the odds are probably not accurate. They're probably well off in one direction. I don't know which direction. So let's just bump up both guys and try and get as much of both guys as possible. Then I got on the flight and I landed. And it was canceled. So then I was like trying to do stuff in the car and it was a disaster. But yeah, no, I mean, I think this is great if they could do this. Meaning the part that is great, I think it's great that they have this in real time and they canceled the event. I think that's how these always played out. That would be wonderful. Like for the integrity of the sports, for people's trust in the sports, like all this stuff. So obviously it's not going to be possible a lot of time. But I think this is exactly the right way to handle it. And I think good on everybody who's involved in this, I think this is great. Yeah, definitely. Are we going to see every rigged boxing match now? It's just going to be like, no, no. All I had is I thought the guy was injured. You know? [LAUGHS] The thing with them is they make no money, right? Right. So-- I didn't see that one tweet. It was like Dana White was saying they get all of these this amount of bonus or whatever, like X to X. And it was like 10 to 30 or whatever. And this one guy at Fighter retweeted, thanks for the bonus. And it was a screenshot of like a 3K. Like that. I mean, it's like ITF 10 is, or some challenge or level 10 is, but it's enormously popular. Right? So it's just like fraught with this stuff. Yeah. Right. Yeah, let's pay the fighters more. Come on. OK. I have to kick this one to you. The prediction market, Wall Street Journal article, because I was afraid to sign up because I'll just forget. I have a Wall Street Journal subscription and pay for it till I die. So I didn't-- It was like $1, maybe $4 a month, $1 a month for a year. So I just reminded myself and my phone next for a year from now to cancel it. We'll see. You think you're going to have the same phone one year from now. It's not going to break or whatever. I guess we'll see. But no, I did sign up to read it. I thought it was interesting. It was well written. I think the aspect that in reading it, it's very clear who is driving this narrative and who's paying for it. Because when you're talking about the prediction markets today, it's such a-- and they actually did mention-- I think there was a sense there about the volume about sports. Sports was a huge percent of the volume. I think they did have that in there. But when you are highlighting four or five prediction market traders today, a reader who knows nothing about this is going to have a very different idea of what prediction markets are, reading that article than what they actually are when you don't have-- So it was real sports? It was no sports people. It was like, yeah, it was like four or five politics slash mention market slash culture stuff. And no diss on any of those people. I follow some of them. They're really interesting. And I think what they're doing is great and everything. So I'm not dissing them. I would absolutely try and be in the article whatever if I could. It's clear that the prediction markets and everyone want to portray themselves as not sports betting. And so what do you do? You don't have your top 20 people who are all sports betters or whatever, right? The other people, like the highest of the rest, right? So I thought it was good. But I don't think it probably gives the most accurate depiction of what prediction markets actually are. Yeah. We probably would be behind that goal of just-- we would be like sure putting them out there. But I do think it's interesting. People are like so-and-so is the prediction market. Go. And it's like, that person is making like any year what the sports people are making. I know. It's easy to fall into that line of thing. But in the spirit of prediction markets, they are like what-- And I think it's probably-- allows these to keep going and sports to be on there. Like go have your moment in the sun, you know, like keep doing this. Like don't highlight the sports betting. That's a great. That's all grand. But this is the right call. This is the right call. Yep. All right. Should we hit the questions? Yes. Start with Bunchu, who's a great-- who's like, I think almost every episode question askers, a shout out. As AI becomes more and more capable, how do you think about building into your operations-- on your operations now and how can you see it impacting you in the future? How are you using it beyond code? Beyond code, I kind of only use it for random-- for questions I was so random, like I can't even think of a good example of it. I basically never use AI beyond code. I don't know if you think that's a leak or not. But I think probably not for my betting stuff, I would say 95 plus percent is just for code. There's some stuff where I'm trying to understand if data sources exist, where sometimes it can help me on certain questions like that, or stuff that's in a beat reporter. Like a beat reporter would be reporting on that stuff like that. I mean, I think to that end, that's where-- the question was, how do you see the embedding in the future? That's where I think it will eventually get better at. And maybe it is, and I'm not the best at it right now. But stuff like parsing player and coach quotes. You only have so many hours in a day. It reminds me of the conversation we had with Calvin a while back. Yeah, it's like the Calvin API. Using some of that to do some of that of press conferences, and then the other thing that's really interesting to me would be I wrote it down as automating ball knowledge. And what I was envisioning by this was like, obviously computer vision and stuff like exists today. But I'm just like a normie who doesn't know how any of this stuff works. Eventually, I would imagine it's going to get good enough that you can feed it some sort of like prompts and parameters and actually have it do stuff for you. Watch more games, watch more film, all of these things, and turn them into metrics, predictors, whatever. And so I think that is also going to be something interesting in the future. Yeah, I think that's a good-- I've thought about that computer vision, but with AI actually allowing me to use it. Yeah, someone let us know if that's a thing or not, because it's not going to be the next thing I build this year, but it's something I have some interest in. And then yeah, I know people use AI for everything from learning skills to having an AI girlfriend. And I think something that maybe is helpful is having it help you outline tasks or create just some brief outlines for things. If you're like, hey, I want to start a project. XYZ can you help me? Set it up in outline. And then just have it iterate that outline in a little bit. Because I find outlining stuff is a good way to quickly get your thoughts on and get actually at start of the something. So that was something I thought about when I saw this question of if I was to extend it to one non-datascience non-coding use, like I think maybe like outlining projects. One thing it does well is it's code, but you can actually use it to create documentation for your code. I recommend that. I know that's not really in the sphere of the question, but you know how many Brockid chip emojis in your comments are there? You have to tell you she's like, please no emojis. Say my boss will get mad if you put emojis in here. Yeah, but I don't know. Not too much is my answer, but it's certainly open. All right, I'll read the next one from Brent and Brown. When is the right time to fully unleash a model or trading strategy? I am sure it's model dependent, but even after back testing, how long do you need to see a model perform well to fully let it run wild? So I'll answer first thing you can go. We've talked about this before. I really think the way to bet is just to do something you think makes sense. Have a reason you think it's better than the market and then just start betting and learning. There was actually a tweet that I wanted to shout out because it was so unbranded. It was from, I don't know if it's Kanzi or Kahnzi. I don't know how it's pronounced, but he tweeted something about nothing worse than not being able to win in a back test. And then his follow up was, which I got a good chuckle from, two seconds away from, I'll just blend this with Penny and bet it into softer books. Surely this model is adding something. And honestly, yeah, that's how I feel. And the reality is, I think for me, historically, just betting, starting maybe smaller and just betting and learning is the actual way to get better, not for me, not continually. We talked about back testing and we talked about enough, but it can be helpful in certain spots or whatever. But at the end of the day, I think what you learn actually betting and participating in the market is far more valuable for me. So that is, I'd say let it loose. Once you have confidence that you've built something solid. Yeah, more the same for me. I mean, I think you can-- I think the one thing is, you get to define loose. So I think we all scale up the loose. So what is let it loose? Is that betting full Kelly? Probably don't do that. But what is letting it loose? Starting to bet it. I think just almost do that immediately. Especially if it wins in a back test. And you can kind of think your way around why you may have an edge or why you may not. I think that's what we always talk about when we get this question is, can you say why you think you have an edge? That always is necessary, but it helps. You'd be more confident. So I think let it loose, just scale up to loose. Let it off the leash in the backyard that's fenced in. First, then you can let it out. We're room free with all the people in the town square. So it's just like work your way out. This is what I would say. But do it start. You know, just start. The other thing is when we get asked this, it's like there's not-- you have limited amounts of games in the season. So I always feel some urgency to really start. But there is some truth to that. If you're waiting to see how it does, for half of the NBA season, and then you start betting, either stuff-- if it worked, stuff might be getting incorporated into the market, or maybe something changed or something like that. So it's important, I think, to start betting small pretty quickly. OK. Next one from Kendrick James. Do you think market makers are becoming sharper live on Calchi? I've noticed significant differences in where wins have gone this month, mostly arming. Not including market making myself. I've seen losses. He gave some numbers. But basically, the question to summarize is, it sounds like he's arming, you know, placing one side on Calchi, other sides elsewhere. And he's seen recently, like, bigger losses on Calchi relative to the other books and whatnot, implying that the sharp side is Calchi. So I'm curious, your takes on this. I think Calchi, as structured, should be the sharpest live. I don't know if it is, or isn't. But do you think about it? They're the only place in the entire betting world that takes bets with no delay. That does not exist. It will not exist. There's no one's going to try and match them at that. So, and they have enough there that flies around. So, just by working your way structurally through it, I would imagine Calchi's either already the sharpest live or certainly will be if they keep the note delay. I just don't know how you could have a better price of that. Yeah, I agree with that. I think the only thing I would add would be-- I mean, I do think a lot of the-- or a decent number of people that are participating in Calchi as like Marley Magers are sort of building the plane as it's flying. And so, I would not take it as like, they're not going to get better at this. So, it doesn't surprise me that if you're seeing it seem to sharpen up, I do think like long term for other reasons, 100%. Like, if there's no delay, it is going to be the best. But I also think there's like a little bit of a good-- old rush phenomenon going on where people are just trying to get in there and likely making mistakes. So, you know, we talked about some with Rufus on that episode, but they're going to get better too. So yeah, I wouldn't, whatever your results are today, I wouldn't just always assume that's going to be the case here. And I'd tell you know, like, I think the one thing that really works in college life is like being at the game and just betting. Like, that's like clearly works. But then if you think about it, if that's working and that's basically kind of built into their pricing, then the thing that probably wouldn't work as much at college is like, are being into it. Because that's not the, that's not like the angle. Like they're probably comparatively good compared to other sportsbooks, but they're very susceptible to this one thing. But that one thing makes them relatively strong compared to other books in the market. That makes sense. Like I know that does that make sense? It 100% does. And I think the, you just need to think about like, if I was trying to like, are on Cal sheet. And again, I don't want to make any definitive statements about today. Because again, I think people like are just trying to, to some extent, get stuff up and running today. But like long term, it would seem really, if Cal sheet is the one place without a delay everywhere else has a delay, it would seem insane to me to like, arb into Cal sheet in play, like in truly in play. Like you could do it at a like a stoppage or break. But like there's, that would seem insane to me to do like actually in, in play. And so I would be very cognizant of that. Because that's Cal sheet's advantage, right? Like to your point. Right. Exactly. Exactly. And the other thing is like, you know, the P and L tells the story too. So you're gathering data, you're arbying. So, you know, means that you're not, you know, down and as a, as a whole. But like while you're arbying, let, you know, let the, let the results tell you something. That's like actually good proprietary data that you can use to make maybe tweaks that might be more positive. I will ask you this one, because this one's, this one's for you. What, what's worth it anymore in the different DFS sports, especially cash does SP play to do you play tears, formats or snakes? This is from Jim. Jim finds those specific formats to have a few more fish. So the only real DFS I play anymore is, is some of the sports where like the duplication aspect is very important. So I guess just to give you like some examples like the Super Bowl is going to be like that would be a good example where there's going to be a ton of people playing. And there's a, you know, relatively small number of linups you can actually make, whereas opposed to like a Sunday NFL Slater or something or NBA Slate. There's a huge order of magnitude of linups you can play. So that's really all I'm playing these days and mostly do another stuff. I tried some snake drafts for, I tried to get in the streets for the playoff, for playoff, playoff contest. And I think I did like three and they took like 30 minutes to do one draft. And I was like, this is absurd. How do people do this? And so I stopped. They're fun if they weren't so long. So that's really all, all I do. It's a good vertical for ETR. It's like a, oh, they think they might do that, but like snake drafts, they do like that, you know, like the underdog, like the product is fine. Like I understand they put it. It's just not like, it's actually not perfect. Scalable out like a professional. Yeah. It keeps those people out. Right. Yeah. There's a lot of people we hate those people. I kept me asking. I literally was kept to play with them. And I'm like, this is ridiculous. I don't know how people, like we would draft like 150 of those that's mind blowing to me. Hit me up if you're draft in 150 teams. We're going to find something for you, maybe. But yeah, yeah, that's perfect. That's a perfect subset of the consumers. I'm also going to ask you this next one, if you ask yourself this, so it's same, you know, plant it. Okay. This has been call sheet and polymarket continuing to gain new followers. And my non, first of all, this says my mom, my non betting friends have downloaded these apps and placed bets as quote unquote predicting is cool. But quote quotes gambling is bad. More so what future do you see for the traditional gambling apps? And then we have a big shout out and you have to talk to this a little bit because we can't let us go and notice shout out to SP for killing calls you this month. You're lighting up the leaderboard on call sheet. So I'll let you, I'll let you speak to that. But I'll just give my two cents. I think like the traditional gambling apps are completely fine. I don't really, I know like there, I do believe there's a subset of people who are willing to go on call sheet and polymarket but not on draft kings and fandals. But you know, how big is that subset outside of people who live in California in Texas? You know, this song, some for sure, it could get bigger to could grow like, you know, we saw it happen with when draft kings and fandals initially came in. But like as it stands now, I feel like draft kings and fandals are totally fine and they're not while they're like kicking the can in the space. I don't think they're particularly worried about their their legacy gambling businesses. Yeah, I guess I'll do the I'll I'll answer the actual question first, but I, you know, I honestly don't until this question, I would have been so skeptical and I still am Ben that that people actually think this isn't gambling but like, wow, is he a shout out and you call him a liar? No, I've, you know, I may be questioning it, but I do because I'm just trying to think of like what that that person is like, who's the prototype of that person? And I do think there's probably like some of that feeling for people who are not necessarily sports fans, but are like, into crypto or into finance or trading or stuff like that. Like, I find it hard to believe that like people who are just like really into music are ever going to be like, I want to gamble on music. That could be wrong, but that would be my my belief is like the people who are predisposed to this are people who are like into trading or finance or stuff like numbers and stuff like that or games. Like I could see like board game communities or whatever like getting into this. But I agree with your sentiment on the gambling companies. I think are fine. If anything, like, I think they're going to be, I think they're going to be competitive in this space, like eventually, that might be like a, you know, hot take cold take expose later on, but I do think they're going to be be competitive in this space eventually. And I, you know, I do think it's, I'm sort of doubtful that it will be a sports solution that's that's governed under the CFTC. Like, I just find that I cannot believe that that's going to be the long-term solution. Maybe it is. And again, maybe I'm just wrong on this. But I could I see a world where like they're integrated like these markets that are not sports with with sports in ways that do attract like a new sector of customers, but it just looks maybe a little bit different than it is today. So yeah, appreciate the the shout out Ben. You know, it's, it's, you know, it's easy to rise the leaderboards when you just you just win all your bets. You don't, when you when you expect, when you run well above expected, you know, it's, you know, I guess everybody's got to run good every now and then. So I appreciate the shout out. Well, it's just him. He told me behind the scenes. He has like a super top secret alpha. He's like the top two people who's yet the first two people at the end of him, he'll give it to you. So he told me. All right, we can go with that. That's fine. No, it's it's been it's been sixing the I love your logo. Like I think it's an underrated logo too. The blue with the graph and the sports balls on it. So I like that. You're like now, you know, people are looking at logo every day. For now. For now. Okay. Big papa. What are some things you focus on in and outside of sports trading during the off season? Did you take this as like things we do that aren't our job? That's how I took it. Like, but there was there was stuff in and outside. Yeah. So, um, but yeah, that that that that's how I how I took it. Um, so I guess I can go first. Like, so I have like a sports trading related answer for the off season. And then, you know, I have my other stuff. But for me, usually, like, like when I'm not so entrenched in it. I think I've talked about it before. The stuff I'm working on it for actual sports betting would be stuff like automation type stuff and what I phrased as horizontal scaling, like where I can branch out and do stuff that's related to what I'm doing. For the upcoming season is usually like what I'm thinking about. For stuff that's not sports related at all, I don't have all too many interests. I like to read and run mostly, is about it these days. I try and hang out with people more during the off season as well, like a little bit more travel and see people I see less, is I try and make an effort of that. So that would be really it for me. - Yeah, I would say you and Mrs. projections are good travelers, like you do a good job. - Too much travel. - Yeah, well, you know, it's traveling is a double edged sword, but like you two do a good job of traveling and seeing a bunch of people. Yeah, I'll just end like I think the same thing. I mean, off season, like I kind of, now I kind of don't feel like there is off season because we're kind of expanding beyond like our original sport mix, but so out, let's say like I think I've mentioned on here, like I like to play golf and set a little goal for this year, golf wise, so that'll get me, it's been good getting me exercising and outside the house and just, it's been fun. So that's what I do. And then I like to watch shows, love to watch traders. That's it. That's on right now. So if you're not a trader's fan yet, if you're listening to this podcast, especially if you man who's listening to this podcast, who has a wife or girlfriend who you want to watch shows with, traders is a great show because it mixes the right mix of like some drama, a lot of like, it's a really well-balanced build game on top of it. So I found like it's a really good watch for couples. So that'd be, that's my, I guess that's my advice. I've watched last season having, haven't gotten to this season yet, but I, I, I don't watch much TV, but I did enjoy, enjoy that one. So there we go. There we go. Okay, money avocado. So this is a good one. There've been a number of pods regarding modeling and suggesting how top-down better or movers can upskill in that area. This is interesting because money avocado then says, would it not be more efficient for, for these people to find already capable modelers to part with what networking exists for matching the two skill sets. For example, I'm an accomplished modeler who would welcome partnering on ideas and angles that non-modelers might have. How do I go about advertising my skills to effectively network what forms exist? This is interesting because we were kind of doing the one direction. We're like, hey, a lot of people are top-down and they're, you know, thinking like what's next or like how can I do something that's less time sensitive or all this stuff. We were never like, hey, like people who are listening to this might be modelers, but like don't know how to get anything down. Like this is a good point brought up by money avocado. I'd say like obviously Twitter is good. You know, I think asking like what, you may have gotten a DM or two just asking that question to be honest, but yeah, I think honestly like posting, I think what you should do is maybe, and I haven't checked out money avocados, Twitter profiles or maybe they're already doing this, but like post a couple of things that you're thinking about. Like you don't have to leak really like leak alpha, but like maybe something helpful, that's more general with modeling. And then you'll kind of just meet people who are thinking around, you know, who are interested in what you're doing and could be a good fit to kind of build a relationship with, but usually you want to just get to know people first, like just meet some people in the space, and then they could refer you to somebody. Like a lot of times somebody will ask me something, I'll be like, oh, I know somebody, like I'm not interested, but I know somebody who would be interested. Like just having the pipeline to be able to kind of like, do that just requires you start to meet like a couple of people. So I think Twitter posting some stuff, you know, I do think Twitter has become a little bit less, like like people posting useful things recently, but like, you know, you could change the, write a good article that isn't annoying. Like that could be good. That could be a good idea. - How to fix your life in the end of your hours? So I mean, like that. - No, I think you nailed it. Like the advice I was gonna give, is I think you just need to sort of put yourself out there and post stuff that's interesting and valuable to people. So obviously there's like a balance of leaking off and everything. I think to some extent, you have to leak some something valuable, like somewhat valuable to get something valuable in return in general. If I just like think of my experience, I was, I had a Twitter account. I started posting some, I started writing some stuff. That's how I met you. Basically, was through those articles and now I've met like a lot more people just like through this podcast and everything. So just try to post stuff that you're interested in and that you think is interesting. And also like interacting with people, like not just, I know these days, maybe it's hard to get on Twitter and actually like get, you know, interactions with people. So I think you can't just like sort of post into the ether and hope for the best. I think like actually like interacting, commenting, hitting in people's DMs when they say something interesting or you have a question or you have something interesting to add. I think all of that stuff is the way and that you know, one connection begets another. So that would be my suggestion is just, I guess it's like that's the way I, whatever connections I have, that's the way I've gotten them. So. - And I would want to throw in one more suggestion, which is like go to that bash. Kind of no matter what you generally think of that bash, it's like a really nice way to actually have conversations with people and like know them as a person instead of like, like a lot of people that meet online you're just like think of them as their Twitter avatar. Like that bash is a good way to actually meet them and then like develop some kind of like connection with them. And there's a lot of people who are interested this in this in the same space. And there's a lot of people who are moving there. So like they want originators and modellers. So I think it's a really worthwhile thing to, thing to do even if it's just to go to a couple things where you meet a couple people like literally meeting one person at that bash is probably worth it monetarily and like you'll also have a fun time talking about sports betting and like modeling of sports betting and like people's eyes won't completely glaze over unless it's golf. You might even get to talk about sports predicting on top of that. - That's true, predict bash. We're launching predict bash in August of 2026. - What is it? - Oh, we have thons. This is a good guy. Actually, I was thinking about this. I don't know what your answer is to this or not. So I'm interested to hear yours. I wonder what you think mine is. Thon asks us how much do you value intellectual curiosity for simply making money? If you could two extra income, but you could only top down bet you have to delete all your models permanently, never bet an opinion. Would you? I think, first I'm gonna guess what S.P. is gonna say. I think he's going to say he would not do it for two X. And then my, actually, what do you think I'm gonna say? - Well, it's interesting because it would have obviously been a no. I would have guessed both no for us a year ago. I think it depends how you view some of this prediction market stuff. Like, so my answer is still no. The way I, let me just answer what I was thinking. And I'm guessing your, I guess to guess what you're gonna say, I'm guessing you're gonna have a very similar answer. I said no, if it was truly just clicking buttons, I would not do it. If I was just like staring at a screen and clicking buttons for whatever eight hours a day, that's like an easy no for me. I'm not married to like originating though. Like if I could, like something that is satisfying for me is like building stuff for prediction markets, for example, and not all of that is like originating, for example. And so I would almost split it more as like building versus clicking. If it was, so like if I could like do prediction market stuff and you know, be my favorite term of Delta Neutral and whatever, like top down that and that could build stuff, like I would get a lot of satisfaction out of that. And I would probably say yes. But like the opinions, like it made me think like the stuff I like about sports betting is actually not so much like just the originating or anything. it's building and solving problems. And it-- It's not actually, so if I split it that way, that's how I would do it, but. - Yeah, under your definition, I'm a clear. Under the click, like click definition, I'm a clear no. Like I, you know, there's probably a time in my life where I would have definitely been a yes. Like, you know, I think money, like the first amount, you know, X amount of money you make is more valuable in a second or whatever. But the, what you said is so interesting because I kind of had, I had, I'd say we had, maybe a disagreement amongst me and my partners of, I was like, I really wanted to spend some time on the golf model, like making it, I told you before this, like, you know, obviously, New Season starts, everything breaks. That's just, which is some mystery of code, but every time it code is gone unattended for a little bit of time, then you fire it back up, it just all breaks. Everybody knows this is a true love, the universe, and nobody knows why. But, so a lot of fixing that, just like operational stuff and whatever. But like, I wanted to spend some time, like, potentially, just like making it, let's just say like, make the number, the output a little more accurate, or like, add in a couple features. (laughs) Or whatever, but, you know, I think, when my partner said, it was like, it's not really worth it. And, but now it's kind of like sucks, like, it sucks, that's not worth it. But then when we talked about, like, kind of what projects we had, I was like, well, I think these are all fun. And they're all, you have to do creative things to like, figure out how to best, essentially, like, interact with this order book in this market and like, you know, what risk perams are you putting in all of this different type of stuff? And I was like, I find this all like, very interesting. Anyway, and it kind of scratches the same itch that I got like, when we were building the golf, you know, model from the ground up. So, I think under your other definition, like, if that was considered top-down, I would, I would think about it. I did say in a tweet, so I was like, I wanna retire and originate niche sports. So, like, there is something where I'm like, I'm really like hesitant to completely give up the originating aspect of it, but like, it's, it, to your point, like, it's not a huge part of my job anymore. There is, you know, something deeply satisfying about having an opinion in it being right. And so, you know, maybe it's hard for me to imagine like that feeling being gone, you know, like, he really, he really, you know, in the question, delete all your models, delete your models, ever-bet an opinion. That's, that's pretty serious. I mean, I guess that, that sort of also gets rid of all recreational gambling too, maybe. True. Is, is betting on black an opinion though? Like, yeah. So, I, yeah, I think, I think the answer probably under most circumstances would be, would be no for me. I wonder, you know, I'm not gonna, we were already running along. I wonder what the number would be. I'll think about what the actual number would be. Like the multiplier? Yes. Yeah. Well, it have to be a number that gets you to something you really wanna be able to do that you can't do kind of. Right. Like, if you want to own a sports team or something like that, then there, or whatever it is. Or just, my number's less than that. I'll say. Okay. Yeah. Same. Well, I'm not even gonna go into what I think of like, owning sports teams in Baltimore. Yeah. I think it's, it's stupid. And we can have a episode. If you have, if people wanna know my thoughts on this, I'll give them later. But, yeah, you're right. We have to, we have to kind of cook a little bit here. We got round amount. Curious if you guys can discuss combos on call-share, haven't even used them at all. No. I know that there's people who are successfully both taking and making combos, which is interesting. Like, so I guess there's probably people who are unsuccessfully making it. We all know obviously there are people who are unsuccessfully taking combos. But like, I'm interested at the people who are losing making the combos. So I think that's an interesting group. But, no, I have, I've kind of connected I've like, I have dipped my tone in like the RFQ documentation and getting something up that just shows me kind of all the quotes, but nothing like nothing in terms of being, you know, placing or posting orders or whatever. Or basically like, nothing that's actually been executed. Yeah, I don't know how, how one could not be participating in the truly seminal innovation of our time. Like, this is groundbreaking stuff, of course, I'm in there. No, I've not, I've looked at them. I've dabbled in the making side as well, not seriously, but sort of poked around. I've also poked around at the taking. I think the options are pretty limited right now on that side. So I'd like to see them continue to improve that. And I think they will. So I think there's going to be opportunities on both sides. But, because what I would say is like just related to the building, the plane as it's being flown, there is no doubt that this is happening on that side. So, and they're not going to be able to avoid you, probably like, draft Kings, so I guess that's kind of scary. Like, yeah, exactly. My word, I mean, I'm sure right now, if you can just get in there and take it, there's a reason it's a gold rush. I'm sure there's the most, whatever the opposite of toxic flows, it's like the best flow. Fun, fun flow. Yeah, right. But, as they increase the surface area, it's going to get more and more challenging and some stuff, like stupid stuff like we've talked about of, like, player name's not matching, or leaving it up when the game starts, or just like stupid stuff like that is going to, is no doubt going to happen, and it'll be interesting when it does. Yeah. Okay, Jath, when dealing with P2 is, how do you suggest moving money back to your own bank account? Does this always have to be done as a corporate transaction, or can the P2 just send you 50K to your personal account to settle up, trying to avoid getting my bank account flagged? Not an accountant, not a lawyer. Nothing provided as financial advice or whatever. I would just work with Gary Conler and just ask him, honestly, like, what you should or shouldn't do. Would be my advice. I don't even, I don't really want to like wander out into this one. Like, don't cut corners, work with the professionals who know the industry and know this type of stuff. And there's no reason to have a potential 50K cash settlement coming that you can't kind of ask somebody like Gary, is my opinion. Yeah, don't ask us, you know, those, we're not a, I mean, you can ask us, we're not qualified to ask someone who's an expert. I think that's great advice. Does Paradise one? Yeah, he asked a couple questions. Maybe he's just for a second time, well, we'll hit the first one. So our most betting models actually just lagging indicators of the market. And if so, where do real modelers still beat books? So my, my two answers on this where I think where modelers are probably having the most success. And obviously there's a lot of different answers. But I would say like competitive not markets, like what would be termed as ball knowledge or understanding the sport better than most people do. What actually matters, what doesn't matter. In non competitive markets, it would be trying where sports books are not trying that hard and getting money into those markets that they really probably don't actually want all that much money or especially not money that's trying to win this. So those would be my, my two answers. Yeah, the one thing I'd add is I'd say like a lot of good models are actually leading indicators of the market. So like sometimes they might not even be trying to predict the necessarily outcome on the field, but trying to predict the close of the market. Okay, Florian, how would you design a slot machine for prediction markets? I think like we've maybe talked about, I don't know if we talked about it on or off air, but something like the, like the last digit of like big coins like price at, you know, every 10 second interval or something like, I don't know if it's truly random or whatever, but trying to find something. And of course, if it's not truly random, you just wait each number like the appropriate amount. But yes, something like that, you need something that's just like basically a random number generator that you can pretend is has economic value like the price of Bitcoin every 10 seconds, five seconds, one second. I don't know. Yeah, and I think you should really like lean into the, and I, you know, they probably, some companies are probably being hesitant, but I think there are going to be companies that like lean into the gamification of it because you don't need to even make it look like, you know, financial trading. Like literally you could have, you know, even numbers as cherries come up, like, and it's every, you know, half a, whatever, you know, 10th of a second, and it's just whatever the 7th decimal place, if it's, you know, you're landing at the cherries and you have what I've not played a slot machine, like probably ever. So I don't even know what's on them anymore. Maybe the cherries are outdated. But whatever it actually is, you could just actually make it look like a slot machine totally. Or you could just predict the results of an actual slot machine. Right, I mean, there's, you know, I know like the, the projecturing market hard as well, with disagree with, with disagree with this, I guess. But like, you know, what, there's, there's no more utility in, you know, a seven leg parlay than there is on whether this virtual coin is going to, you know, land heads or tails or whether this virtual ball is going to bounce in, in black or red. There's no more, like none of those are hedging risks or anything. So what's it done? You get to hedge your spin from you being at actual roulette wheel. Yeah, if you're doing like live dealer or something, you can just exactly, you need to hedge out. Yeah. And I'm sure we will see that in a month or less, um, brand in probably more for SPS since he works full time. But what are your general thoughts on people only searching for and taking very high edge plays when they pop up? Is there a skill to not grinding single digit edges and choosing your battles wisely? So you and I actually talked a little bit about this. I think we're out to eat not that long ago. So I think it's just really, really hard to stay in the game. Like I've never heard of anybody. They, I'm not saying they don't exist. I've never heard of anybody who just is like, like solely a big game hunter and like not in the streets at all. Um, I, I just think it's hard to, to find the big spots if you're not like in, in the streets on a day to day basis. Um, and so that would be my case against that. Like I just, I just think you're going to catch a lot more of the big edges if you are, if you are grinding at something and getting like a little bit better at something or, or whatever. Um, so that's, that's my two cents. I mean, the, the last way I'd comp it would be like, if you think of companies, like if you think of Amazon, um, you know, like they've, they try, like, or Google or Apple, like they've had a bunch of different products, like many, many products. Most of them were like pretty bad. Um, but like they had like, like if you think of Amazon, like AWS is like an enormous business now, but they tried to like a lot of stuff and were in the trenches, like selling, you know, when they started, they were like selling books, right? That was like their primary thing and they were just like grinding book sales basically. Um, and that afforded them the opportunity to try these other things. So I sort of think about it like that as you need to sort of like be plugged in and plodding along to have the opportunity to go after some of these big spots. You know, maybe other people have stuff that works for them, but at least for me, that's, that's how it, how it works for me. Yeah. Yeah. I've, I've always wondered like, is, is there other people who are literally just, like you said, big game owners, but you can cover so much attack surface that like you could theoretically like find something every day or, or whatever. To me, that's maybe possible. I know Metro Mike's like kind of there, but like I think he, he does some other like model stuff that's, that's more consistent too. So yeah, I agree with you. You just want to make sure like that, that thing that's small edge is keeping you around, you know, keeping you plugged in. That's a huge benefit that pays off beyond the actual ROI. So I wouldn't agree. I wouldn't sacrifice it. Um, see warp. Do you think the world cup in the US will facilitate legal, it's often more robust soccer products, especially long term? Yeah. Yeah. Maybe not. I think the world cup will have a lot of markets, but I don't necessarily see it rolling over back. I could be wrong. I leave the US like, it goes to semi final. I can see it potentially having some kind of impact, but I don't know. I'm skeptical that America, like every world cup, it feels like the narrative is like, now Americans are going to care about soccer. This one is here, obviously. So maybe I'm, I'm doubtful to me, like soccer is the opposite of what, you know, younger generations are looking for, um, with like a lot of action, very short attention spans, like all of this stuff. So I'm doubtful. So I know probably a soccer better there. So that's obviously unfortunate, but I could, I hope I'm wrong. I guess I hope I'm wrong. More opportunity. I think it'll be great for the world cup. I think there'll be a lot of actual interesting things during that time, like speaking up big spots, like I'm not saying like betting on a side or whatever. I think there's going to be weird stuff, my guess, and there'll be some good stuff. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. The court setting opportunities during the world cup is here, my God. Oh, they got that delay in by that. Yeah, but yeah, it goes last college to get to the world cup. They'll be, they'll be good. Um, this is from Dennis Montoro, who I think is a horse racing better. Um, it says a lot of the earliest market based betting models are developed in horse racing along before modern sports analytics. Why do you think so few people like you end up exploring racing, low to question, but I appreciate the discussion. Uh, I can speak for myself. The biggest geniuses are in horse racing. So I kind of like look at it as like I'm, I'd be scared to dip my toes in and I'm like so far behind the April that like it would be a big uphill battle. So that that's been my, I think like, you know, obviously it's been shown. That there's a lot of juice to be squeezed by its smart analytical people with good models. But it's almost like, yeah, I think of like Bill Bentner, you know, Jalco and Alan Woods and you and, you know, et cetera. Like I'm, it's just like, it doesn't feel like the place for me to, to go. Yeah, I've written three reasons. That was one of mine that I feel like I'm extremely behind on, on, on horse racing. Like it's just to your point, like you said, it's earliest based betting models. Like it's been around like a long time. All of this has been around a long time. And so I feel like I would be extremely behind. So that's one aspect. I think the other aspects are just frankly, it's like, I guess these are sort of related, but it's like not marketed and it's not like there's, and that can be wrong on this. It's just my vantage point on what horse racing is to tell me if I'm wrong. But like it doesn't seem like there's like inflexes of new players. And I've talked about on this show, like I've always wanted to be where the new people are or like where the flow of people is going because that's generally going to be some of the best opportunities. And so I think like no real marketing people are more generally into sports than, you know, horse racing, like, you know, sports stars are celebrities. So I think those would be the reasons for me. Yeah, exactly. Like my, like my unknowing guess is that there's probably not as much good rec flow anymore coming to horse racing with sports betting. And it seems like the rec flow is like aging out too. Right. And now like Dave Porton or declared he's not betting right because of the C.A. W is so. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's a whole different story. But yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I just, I don't see any like tick-tock horse racing. Tows. Oh man. Right. Like there's an opportunity. There's a market segment. We got to capture. All right. Next one. From six simple tyranas. Have you ever used Betfair? And would you agree it's user interface is superior to polymarket cow cheese? Plus they have some level of customer service. Why don't you think Fandall didn't try to compete by expanding Betfair to cater for their non-sport markets? So I've never used Betfair. So I could be wrong here. I do find it will hard to believe that the UIs have not gotten better. You know, like certain people like different styles differently, but I would find it hard to believe like that the average 21 year old would find I've never even seen it before. So I could be so wrong in this. But I would find it hard to believe that like the efforts that cow she and polymarket made to like make this simple and easy to use are not paying off. You know, no comment on the customer service part. That's probably fair. On the Fandall question part of the question, I said this earlier, like I think Fandall and DraftKings are eventually going to have competitive products, especially Fandall. You know, having this Betfair sort of connection or in the ecosystem already. So I think they're sort of in a playing a tough card with the legal online sports betting and what they can and can't do and integrate and not integrate in certain states. But you know, to that question, I think they're eventually going to have a good product. Yeah. I've, you know, I have seen the Betfair interface or the UI. And I would like to ask you, if you would like to ask me, if you would like to ask me, I would say that it's from when I remember, which was a couple of years ago, I felt it's worse than what Call of Shia and Polymarket have. But I don't, I have not seen it in the last couple of years. So the version I remember, I think was a worse UI, but they had some good, there's a lot of good tech built on top of it. I know Bet Angel was a good, basically like ladder trading system. I'm sure there are a lot of like things that are being built for Poly and Call of Shia, I don't know about, but there's some like legacy stuff in there that people like that, you know, could be annoying to have to move off of, but I would maybe disagree about the UI. And then yeah, what else he said? Like they're trying not to roll out sports. Obviously like, as you mentioned your question, like why aren't they expanding outside sports on Bet Fair? I think there are some stuff outside sports. I think there's politics on Bet Fair. Yeah, I'm almost certain there's politics on Bet Fair. So, you know, I think there's a use there. I have no clue though, because you have to think about it, like what are you, you're not gonna be able to combine the pools of liquidity in the UK and the US. So like, would you just be using the Bet Fair pricing or the tech, like certainly like that's an option. You could use some of the, I guess, the Bet Fair tech to build your non-sports markets, but right now they're not even, they're kind of, I think they're contract with the CME and not actually like operating their own exchange. So maybe that's what they're building, you know. I'm certain that if they're building it, like they're not, and there's a use for like the Bet Fair stuff, they'll use it. It's a good competitive advantage. - Okay, two more. From coolio beans, do either of you guys have plans, ambitions to transition out of sports betting, maybe due to edge erosion, market competition, bankroll size exceeding the available liquidity in the markets, you primarily bet, or for some other reason. If so, what would that look like? What would you look to do? For me, like, I obviously really like betting and all the aspects of it. I think at its core though, it's honestly reminded me a little bit of Thon's question. I think anything that was like in the same vein of like problem solving sort of gamey type stuff, I would get satisfaction out of. That could be like business related, investment related, like all those things, I think I would be happy doing that stuff as well. So I have no plans to get out of this anytime soon, but I do think like some of those other opportunities would scratch a similar itch at least for me. - Yeah, I kind of see it as like, I'm like a no. Like if I'm not betting, you're gonna catch me on the golf course trying to qualify for the champion so or something like that. Like I don't really. - That's a true life right there. - Well, I said that's a true life right there. That's your spec. - Exactly, exactly. So you know, at this point, there was a point where I just was like, you know what, this is my industry. Like I think I had that one like maybe me and where it's like, I like to make money betting and then it's like the middle curve was like, well, I'm not providing utility to society and then like the right side was like, I like to make money betting. I went through that whole thing and I got to the end of it. I was like, you know what, I just like to make money betting. And this is fun and I now like have a lot of experience at this which like doesn't really translate to a ton of other stuff. So and I like it and I have freedom. So I'm just gonna keep doing it. For me, I think that's kind of, that's kind of it. Like I, you know, I like it, it pays well. And I like sports and yeah, I like doing this podcast. So, you know, who knows, maybe our will become famous parkcasters one day. That's certainly the only other avenue even really available to us. - All right, last one. - You have many avenues. I'm just a simple gambling man. - I guess I'm a simple landscaper and you're a simple gambling man. So, okay, last one from Friend of the Show, Josh Royale. Can you talk about your process of building your current team out? Most people tend to like to do the more glamorous bedfinding work, but not sure where to begin looking for the people that do all the P2. Handholding kind of work and back and forth communication and accounting, et cetera. - Yeah. That part is the annoying part. And, you know, as far as like finding somebody though, you kind of, you know, you want somebody who's gonna want that role. And it's a little different than like somebody who's in AP who's like beating SGPs and wants like work in a group. Like they will not necessarily want to have that role. So, you may look for that person outside of the bedding space. It's not a terrible role to hire somebody like who you trust and really like and really like to work with and who you think's like organized and a diligent person, but like doesn't bet. That role doesn't have to be a role that requires you to have been a better. Like you can train that up. You want somebody who's really good communicator, really well organized and, you know, yeah. I mean, those are the two keys and then just like, who's, you know, down to put the weird hours in is one that shouldn't go overlooked because a lot of this stuff is gonna be at weird hours. So, if you're finding someone from outside of the bedding, make sure you tell them that this will be a bit of a weird hour situation because you don't want them like taking off every weekend when you probably want to give them off like one weekend and one Monday or something. You know, so I would just, I think finding this person from your, you know, normal network is not a bad route. And it's a really helpful thing to have because that takes up a ton of mental bandwidth. And if your job is to make good prices, then, you know, this hinders you doing your job. So I think it's an important hire, but it's not necessarily one you have to get from a gambling Twitter. Not, but it could be. It could be, you know, if they understand bedding and they have all these traits and you know them and kind of think they'd be a good fit. And that's great. That's icing on the cake, but it's not like you have to be like a good plus EV winning batter to do this role. - Okay, you got a Bayesian update this week? - Yeah, I have a Bayesian update. So this is on my, this is, this is two Michael Weaver who I have my golf that with. When I, when I first bet him, I was pretty confident I was gonna get to a scratch. And then I was, I lost some confidence. I'll be honest, I've been working out, but I lost some confidence. And then I realized like, oh, it's January. Nothing, no score is shoot now is going to be on my card at the end of the year. It's not gonna matter. I'm going to go and work with, you know, find a coach. I'm gonna like put in the work to make like a couple small tweaks that, you know, I need to make. And then like come summer, there's no chance. I don't get to scratch. That's my Bayesian update. - It's a lock. - No, it's just an absolute megane-wale. - First lock we've given out on the pot. Okay, good, good, good. Mine is, I had two. One of mine actually aligned with what was going to be our main topic. So I'll save that one. - Yeah. - For when we actually do that. This one, I've got into, you know, the YouTube algorithm is really fickle. I tweeted about getting into like these horrible gambling content, but I've also gotten into like, you know, some math type videos, some theoretical math type videos. So I'm rekindling my love of some of that math I was doing in college and whatnot. And I guess my update is whatever I viewed our progress on understanding of math and physics and all that stuff, I actually think we're further back. We're not, we have not, we don't, we don't know as much as I would have, I would have thought we knew. Like I, it's not right to think of it as a percentage of like the all math to know, because I guess you could argue that that maybe infinite. That's like a whole debate. But if you view it that way, I, whatever percentage I thought we were at, I actually, after, after getting in that whole, I actually think we're at a lower percentage. So that's sort of a very niche, maybe nerdy one, but that's, that's my update. Yeah, I mean, I've, when we've hung out, you've, you've told me a little bit about, you know, your, your, your math exploits. Let's say like SP, SP's are a true math guy. This is like, this is somebody you said, I think you told me like one path that would be acceptable in your life would be like you in a cabin in the woods, like solving one of the problem, this famous problem. I mean, yeah, yeah. I mean, I don't, I mean, I've been watching a lot of videos. I could make a video. maybe even give an update. Like I actually think some of those are, I used to think they would all be solved. Like eventually, I don't know if I believe that anymore. That's another one. That's another trick of the update. But anyway, well, you know, you know, maybe that's a retirement goal. Like I wanna originate in these sports and you wanna be in the woods solving a math problem, you know? And these are the true joys of retirement that are beyond owning a sports team per se. But yeah, thanks everybody for listening. Thanks everyone for the great questions and we will see you on the next episode. (upbeat music)