How to become independent

Welcome to the Euro Intelligence podcast and Wolfgang Munscher and with me as a son of Munschang and Jack Smith Today we will talk about the New World Order the order that followed the age of globalization the age of financial globalization the age of multilateral institutions The age of value-based foreign policies whose features we've all gotten used to the Greenland Threat is off the table for now Donald Trump has made a retreat or would appear to be a retreat. We don't know Lots of details. We don't know at this point But the rift in the transatlantic alliances for real Europe's strategic questions are as Important and as pressing as ever. What can we do without the United States? Shall we decouple from the United States to which extent can we decouple from the United States? Shall we seek other alliances as Marcani? Appeared to suggest in his speech this week So what are the the the right strategic options? So this is what we want to going to discuss today. It's a broad it's a it's a broad it's a broad Area, but we want to get quite specific about What is it we need to do not this? We have to stand up to Trump. We have to we have to get set independent You know everybody can say that and a lot of you know commentators say that all the time But they don't know they haven't got the clue what what this involved. So we want to try to get a little bit more Concrete today and ask ourselves What does it take Jack? What do you think? I think it takes a lot of different things But I think you know at least in my opinion the most important side of this is security and defense because it's sort of The fulcrum on which everything else rest to a certain extent because without a solid security situation We don't have anything and it's sort of the ultimate leverage point that the Americans have over you know It's allies in Europe in Canada and East Asia and so on That is quite a difficult proposition and it's not just a difficult proposition because I don't know our armies aren't big enough or because we're not spending enough money on defense Be that true as it might. It's a difficult thing to do because Decades of existing within an American led security infrastructure have introduced Numerous, you know operational Logistical and industrial dependencies on the United States, which are going to be very hard to undo I mean I've heard there's been talk It's been on and off for quite a while but more on now than off of having some sort of European alternative to NATO, right like a like a European NATO I remember one of the first prominent politicians to suggest that was Rob yet and then in the Netherlands who is Almost definitely going to be the next Dutch prime minister Of course having coordination between governments and having a military alliance that You can at least in theory rely on is an important step, but it's not the only step and you know this is Something that I think requires Any countries that want to be you not dependent anymore on the US from a security point of view to go deeper, right? Especially in terms of their defense industries because if you look at it Well the first thing is that we buy quite a bit of military equipment from the United States in Europe That's what a lot of our increased defense budgets are going towards but even beyond that oftentimes when a particular Defensor weapon system is made in Europe. It's made by an American contractor or By some sort of joint venture or partnership between a European and American company or or with substantial American components in the supply chain right Even a European produced fighter jet like the sob gripe him that the Sweden produces It contains a licensed production general electric engine. So You know you have all those difficulties and then you have the difficulties of relying on the United States in several different really critical areas right so for example and software and satellite technology The list the list goes on right so That requires I think a different approach to how we think about our defense industries and There's there've been numerous attempts to integrate European defense industries and their and defense procurement more over the decades They pretty much never worked because there are legal and political barriers to doing this right And these efforts always start with the legal and political barriers. They don't really start with saying okay Well, what capabilities do we need? What capabilities is it important for us to have ourselves and then what is necessary in order to develop those capabilities? I mean the only country that does this that I can think of in isolation in Europe is France But even with France, you know doing it on their own France's security is not just about France's security for France right it exists within Europe And if another European country around France has a problem them France has a problem and you can say well, you know this this kind of very Autonomous drive to make sure that yourself reliant in in in its defense industry has served France well There was certain extent, but it's not really scalable to the rest of Europe and that's an issue both for France itself and for the rest of Europe So I think there needs to be some serious rethinking and I think this is a theme that we'll come to throughout the podcast It needs to start with saying what do we need to do and how do we need to do it and not what are the obstacles that are already in place and how do we try to do some sort of half-bake solution that comes within these obstacles? It has sort of half-bake solutions is what the EU has pretty much done over the over the years and it's not the ability to produce an actual solution to a problem It's not something that we are that we're very strong at Let me just add one one one other component and I completely agree this is our our You know defense industries have grown together for a very long time the entire structure is oriented towards the United States. This isn't something you can change at the flick of a switch If you were serious about it and I don't think we are serious about it But if you were serious about it, it would still take perfect 10 years So one has to also be realistic about time scales About what it would involve it's not just about how much money you spend but how you organize your industry how you organize your procurement structures inside of Europe It depends on on on on technologies you we have yet to develop ourselves that technologists we just don't have So this is the realistic time span. I mean for example we're not going to fight fight Putin and become independent of the United States All within one year. This is just completely ridiculous And a lot of our debate in Europe very much sort of driven by unrealistic desires But without any sort of knowledge of the situation without any knowledge of what of what is feasible This shift can not occur whilst we're fighting a war That sort of would be my first So it would it would have an impact on how on our diplomacy in Europe Our way we think about Ukraine We would have to take the responsibility. This is not only Buying weapons from the United States and then sending them on to Ukraine This means being really responsible strategically responsible Having a plan knowing what do we want to do with Ukraine The latest we hear is that the EU is sort of thinking about Membership light you know an associate membership option where Ukraine You know gets no money and has no voting rights There's another way of saying we're not we don't want you as a member This is a very typical EU response. They realize they haven't got the money and I don't think they have the money I don't think they can mobilize the money that they need for Ukraine to sustain it in the long run based on their current political consensus So this would involve having a discussion about money. This would involve having a discussion about voting rights This would involve having a discussion about the you know treaty change because you know these things need to be These are not simple laws you need to change. This is a way the EU thinks It needs to change so there isn't it would require that we grow up That we take responsibility and you know, I've often talked about strategic lack of strategic thinking When I say that I don't mean that the Europeans don't have brains What I'm saying is that you don't think strategically if you rely on others to do the strategic thinking for you And that is what happened in Europe. There isn't anybody in the in the leadership If I listen to Friedrich-Mertz's speech at Davos totally pathetic The man's little thing sees in the in you know in the first part of the 20s 21st century still things we under in the in the in the multilatial rules based order Macron has nothing to offer Absolutely nothing. He just you know can complain about the world. But there isn't a a a coherent Strategic approach to this is where we want to go This is what we have to do today and these are the steps in the middle that we need to take That doesn't exist in Europe It's all about who we are who we're with. That's very important. We're friends or enemies. I mean This is the kind of you know emotional stuff But these guys are losers. I really want to say this out Frank. These guys are complete losers in the EU will not succeed You know won't perish or won't break up. I'm not making you know these silly predictions But you will fail in this in this in this global international context So this isn't sort of a thing that will be nice to have Something we say you know making ourselves independent as sort of something. Yeah, we do as well You know go shopping your feet the cat make ourselves independent from the United States It's not that kind of thing if we did this it would be the biggest thing we've ever done We our generation has ever done and You know, I don't see that I don't see that sense of urgency because that would require not not only an awareness but But but you know willingness to sacrifice because I would like to hear You know if you want to do this what what what of the things that we do we can't do Because I don't think we can do everything we're doing now and do that on top of it So because it will require sacrifice as it did in the United States Now the United States for example doesn't have the same welfare system as we have their food stamps where we have You know welfare systems and they have that because there was in the social compact in that country There isn't the money for this we have to see so if we had to become responsible What would be the sacrifices we will make any strategy would have to include that discussion And I don't see it's happening I'm just wondering listening to your arguments whether There is also a generational component here because when we grew up for us In our generation it was all important to get an independence and the moment we turned 18 We went out of the house and just left and just made our own Enroads in in life And that's pretty much the concept and experience that we bring to the table here And I'm just wondering whether we framing it the whole debate Based on our experience in that way When you for example see the newer generations the younger generations That process of leaving the nest is much more gradual And the children are much more engaged with the parents of a longer period And the the moments of independence are much more partial and taking over responsibility in administrative forms and their studies Whatever they want to do in a chief But they're also critical components that are still the same Are still connected to the parents today Then Compared to when we were young. I think they're the cutoff was much more brutal So I just wondering if we talk about these zero one things It's not really the zero one that we are looking for but I can imagine a much more gradual shift that actually happens over time The question is then what are the priorities where do where do we start first and what is going to follow next But it's really step by step and and and not a brutal which would be much more of a violent It cut with with the US On the other thing is we are also observing. I mean, I voted in my column yesterday. It's a little bit like We are in our mind. We're discussing this all with our minds. It's all an abstract It's it's like shrewding us cats. We have these two scenarios in our head According to which we are still allies with US and the other were We are no longer we have to go all our way alone and these two scenarios we can Hold in our brain together for as long as it actually takes for the evidence to emerge and In ensuring us cat the only way to verify whether the cat really died is by opening the box where the cat was in We haven't come to that point yet where we actually can conclude I mean Kani was mentioning that in his speech in Davos and put it quite forward but We ourselves as Europeans, they're still live in in the system that makes us believe that somehow There could be a live afterwards so This can be a hindrance in a way to think about How to pick up the pieces of this multilateral system and saying how do we integrate it? What needs to happen and how do we integrate it in in a way That we can actually moving forward in a multiple our way because that I think it's not not deniable We will move towards a multiple our way with China on the other side and Russia doing his his thing and then actually forcing us to rethink our security strategy We have also in the Middle East we have Israel changing and challenging our Middle East policy We have Africa as one of the next challenges where China is coming and might compete with us Over who's going to determine the norms in terms of networks in terms of footprint economic footprint and relationships So there are so many changes happening at the same time Where the Europeans need to actually solidify their own identity in this changing world And we we're not there yet because we haven't acknowledged yet that the old system is dead And as long as we still hang in this old system and still believe that the cat is actually alive and could actually Any moment come out of the box again as long as we hang on to that idea That will actually stop us from actually going into the idea of What would it be like if the cat is not well no longer there would we replace the box what we have to have another animal What is the thing and that actually very much depends then on how we see ourselves as an identity It's a debate we try to avoid for the last couple of years our decades basically This who are we as a as a as a community. I mean we're starting after World War 2 That was our way of making peace right we we used the rule of law We built the institutions in a framework of international law and international institutions Backed by the US and back then and all of a sudden a Donald Trump is asking us to leave this all behind for his his versions For a world order according to his liking which is much more arbitrary and much more unpredictable So there are some more in between we need to find our own standing and I haven't seen yet that we are There yet to think about it and I'm not we even sure that we can push it Because that's something that is so deeply ingrained and it's so so fundamental to the identity of the you That any pushing would actually get us in a wrong direction. I don't know what it will take whether There will have to be a crisis in order to shake this up But I also don't see that the pushing and the warnings will and it will bring up some people But probably not the ones with the good ideas. I think I know what it will take. I think we'll take a war And not that we would wish that but that's probably what it will take Because I think that the inbuilt You know the thargey of the system is too strong. I think people won't wait until You know do the macro to think pretend we like Trump for the next three years and then hope there'll be somebody else and then Return to the normal thing. It's much more likely then Us becoming independent the costs the political costs. They you know, we don't have the social consensus for this You know, I think if we actually had to do a list of the things we concretely need to do And you know cost it Budget it and do this properly We probably won't have a majority for that. I don't think there is a political party in Europe that would Propose this and survive this Um, so more likely than not it will not happen More likely than not we will fail And maybe we will do partial stuff. I agree you can become a degree more independent from the United States In 10 years time We may develop a new weapon systems together and next generation weapon systems together doesn't look good at a moment But it may put it may be possible that there is a weapon system that we can do together and without the United States Maybe possible that there's a technology we developed together without the United States But you know, is it not more likely that we will fail Given where we come from given the the past Yeah, and given that it each juncture the option chosen as the path of least resistance The path that involves Changing the least at the moment and I think politically at least it requires facing up to the fact that you know Despite all of the discontent that's that's going around in in European populations Lots of people's lives are actually fairly comfortable and they feel like they have more to lose out from any big changes that Then to gain which is the sort of difficult paradox that there's this widespread dissatisfaction But then any attempt at moving anything becomes just politically difficult. So I think the war would actually make it worse. I mean we have this paralysis and I totally agree with Jack There's a paralysis and then Well, there is no Necessity but also no desire to dream another future To imagine another future because you have to start with imagining if you can't imagine another future It's not going to be created in any way So there is no desire there. I mean we've seen that well the problem that we have we've seen that very clearly with the Microsoft deal We have negotiated the net Microsoft deal for the last 25 years It's the trade part of it's not the whole Microsoft deal but just the trade part of it um Was adopted by the states but the member states with qualified majority. I think it was last week Uh, and that enabled Wasla von der Leyen to to travel to Paraguay to sign the deal off The deal then landed on the table of the European Parliament And ratification is needed in order to put this whole thing together and They decided to forward the deal to the European Court of Justice yesterday What this means is that the the ratification of the deal will now be delayed by one or two years At least depending on well, this assumes that the the courts actually are ruling in favor and give the going light to The macros ordeal in specifically the question of whether it was right for the commission To separate the trade deal out of the whole Microsoft deal in order to allow qualified majority to be used To uh, sign the deal off So we don't know what the court will say what the opinions will be But it's it's feasible at least to think about that they come up with a yes, but kind of answer were parts of The way how it has been done and dealt with in the last 25 years would come under scrutiny or would be rejected or would be asked to be modified so that would add another Delay to the whole system now this comes in the time where countries like Germany Or Italy as well Exporters are desperate to find new markets. It comes also in the time where Europe is seeking to make its own marks and actually wanting to show in geopolitics that it has its own answers now the macros ordeal is a rule-based system and to put the macros ordeal in front of trump and saying this is how we deal with this geopolitically we're not just throwing around tariffs. We are not doing this back and forth on the whimper for a tweet or Whatever we have we negotiated long enough. That's our outcome That would have been a strong message, but The problem is that's not how the European parliament sees it They want to be sure it's on the safe side. It's the legality of it. The other problem is that It's several member states the farmers are not happy with macros or this is the reason why France Decided to vote against it. It's the first time that a founding member Wouldn't sign off a trade deal for you. So This puts the political landscape a little bit in a in a bind So politics local politics can actually then Cause an upheaval or havoc for the European trade deal with macros who are countries And Latin America and it shows how In stable or how unbalancing this relationship can be So test case for us and for the Europeans where it's going to be heading and that the moment it doesn't look too good After say I think too when you look at the mercus ordeal I think it's indicative of this What you kind of described is this like failure of imagination right which is to say that Man, I remember when I was in university I was helping edit this volume of an international relations journal that was about the mercus ordeal And that was an extremely long time ago This deal has been kicking around for decades now And we still haven't signed it off and it's just constantly one thing after the other that stops it And I think you know, of course there are these Political legal obstacles constituencies we have to appease things like this But I think it comes down to the fact that we can't actually imagine a radically different Social economic political diplomatic or cultural relationship with Latin America A region with hundreds of millions of people and a fair amount of promise That's just not been there and if it had been there if we could have said well This is really what we want this deal to achieve tangibly And we really want a step change in this relationship Then potentially we could have gotten there and overcome this opposition Because there would have been something to say Well, it's it's going to be worth it because we're going to have something new at the end But that simply hasn't been the case And and the second instance of this in terms of a failure of imagination too Is is dealing with the agriculture sector where You know to a certain extent with some of these things you can say well fair enough The EU does have Tools to deal with unfair trading practices But frankly the way that we deal with unfair trading practices in the EU at the moment is inadequate It takes too long, it's too procedural And oftentimes once the decision actually gets made to proceed with it and you end up with an outcome The proverbial horse is bolted before the staple door has been shut So I think that also required more imagination to see how we can alter the way that we deal with these unfair trading practices To give these sectors more reassurance that they're going to have some sort of security In case of something going wrong And again, I think that's been lacking too We talk about the EU as it was like a policy failure And I agree we like the imagination but I think it's deeper Running the EU is like you know getting you know 27 headless chicken to perform in an orchestra Even if the president of the commission, the president of the European council, the leader of France and Germany had the right Imagination, it was still very difficult to actually get the EU to do something So we have to distinguish between policies we agree with or disagree with or the functioning of the EU And I think that what's happening and the reason why what blocks us Is the fact that we do not have the political structure in order to do these things We will have elections There will be a French new French president We already have number of populist leaders and you know it might be that urban loses the election And then we have one of the most of disturbing characters off the table But we have Barbies and we have Fiko and they're starting to grow confidence And who knows we may have a French president of the far right And then you know there may be somebody else coming So you know we will not have that political unity in Europe given the fragmented national political systems So I don't think that you can do that I don't think the way the EU is built it cannot do that And it cannot do that even if they you know even if the commission president even if she had a clear vision Which she does not But even if she had a strategy and and a plan That would not be sufficient And that's why you know I'm I'm not spending much of my time criticizing individuals or think think of this as a blame game If only somebody else was in power Things would be better. I don't think that would be the case I don't think I would be a better better able to manage this either I don't think it's sort of like like anybody you know who we you know who we wish could do this I don't think this is the issue so the the issue is much deeper therefore We actually have to very much agree with us on we have to really much think ask some very deep questions about who we are Are we a state? Are we a loose federation confederation? We have our own definitions. We don't need to use the old categories from political science. We have obviously the US sort of its own hybrid form In new form, but what is it? We want to accomplish with this form in the not the current but the future geopolitical environment And I don't think the way the US set up can achieve this So I'm not surprised to see that Mercosur is a once again in trouble and that it looks to me like the era of the great trade deals us over and it's over because We haven't got the political majority. It's also difficult and that in America We haven't got to forget it's not us. It's not a shoe-in in the Mercosur region I mean there were countries not all the countries were in favor of it at all the times They're important countries that are not part of the of the agreement like chilly That are not part of the Mercosur trade region. So we're not capturing the entirety of Latin America So one has to sort of be realistic about what is achievable and you know who knows where Argentina is going Under melee. So I'm just wondering whether the EU needs to Instead of discussing NATO and all these things whether we actually need to actually have a debate about ourselves and that this process is what prolong the process But policy changes are going to work. Oh, I think I think it's a necessary prerequisite I think the structure that we have at the moment isn't isn't adequate for this and we would need something completely new So yeah, it's a necessary prerequisite and to be clear when I mentioned this failure of imagination I don't think it's a part of individuals. I think frankly it's a it's a collective one right It's a collective cultural failing that we that we sit back in and most of us can't really articulate something very different Admittedly you know coming back to talking about America that is certainly not a problem the Americans have I think also this is um I mean when you was created we heard Nations states and had Clear two party systems. Maybe you had either the socialists or the conservatives in power It was a much more stable and easier to manage Exchanged between nations and also you had majorities. We had majority governments So they actually can it could implement Agendas that they decided upon nowadays political and step in most of the EU countries has fragmented. It's like a fractals. It's like you go further into the details governments are Complex constructs of coalition of parties of several parties That all have to agree on a government program now Whatever you do on the EU level might not actually sit well with the coalition So there again you play the the national interests against the EU interests and I mean it's always easy to once you put a project forward you you mobilize both the pros and the cons and Depending on where you have you expect a better better pay old or a better Positioning you might end up in one or the other. We know that Paraguay who's at the moment heading the Mekosur Is not in favor as much as Brazilians for Mekosur deal The same can be said here in in Europe Transpoldent I'm not at all enthusiastic about the Mekosur deal then again They don't have as much to gain from it as Germany and Italy It's more also the question of Is it always about us does it always have to be about us? Do we have to address every fear every every aspect of How many assurances do we have to give and so it's a question also I think of a more general Sign of our time that is there's a lot about entitlements. It's a lot about safety and security It's about addressing fears addressing fears about the future and which is kind of normal in times where everything feels like getting into a flux where we don't actually know Where it's going to be heading? Where the solidity that we knew in all my life I knew the solidity we had a cold war situation But they were allies to count on there was a geopolitical order that was to count on and that gave predictability Now that we see this order being challenged by the wars by By the US that predictability is gone And that raises even more fears and then even more uncertainty where to go through and Rather than trying to capture outside Whatever can be rescued. It's actually time really to To ask ourselves what kind of society that we want to have here are on the UP level But also on a national level and I think it really demands and a different discourse and a different communications strategy Also on the national level what politicians can credibly still promise on the campaign trails before elections As much as it is also a question of what the Europeans Can actually deliver for the whole of the union. I don't know you know, of course there are always going to be interest groups and politics But you have to have a form of politics and some sort of shape to it that doesn't Set these things as zero some games Because otherwise you're you're never going to be in a situation where you can actually move anywhere because You're always going to have somebody that gets upset and you're always going to have inertia because you you fear upsetting these people You have to present a different sort of again a different form of politics where You know in some ways to a certain extent everybody loses out but ultimately on the long run Everybody is better off and this I think too has been lacking the the sort of way in which we treat politics here in Europe Has become not just in Europe. I think this this goes on in other parts of the world But in Europe has become increasingly a zero someone where we see okay Well, we have a problem. It's these other people that are responsible for it And we need to do something about this and so on right? So I think that mentality has also been unhelpful Coming to back to Marconi's statement Well, I thought it was quite right in the way he identified our quite a lot of brutality the the plight which were in But he was still falling back to the old thing or we have to work together and this I think sort of from our discussions here I think we broadly agree that we have to kind of start with ourselves and in many ways that It requires a different way to think about the world Because we got used to this kind of reacting from doesn't be react to it And we're not we haven't yet taking the responsibility for this now you are if you are basically in charge of Solving the problem of how to organize the well the world Without U.S. leadership You have to think very differently you would look about talk about how do we ensure that there is peace how do we ensure that there's prosperity how do we Manage this in a way that we don't experience a setback and it requires you know a very different mode of thinking To what we have done in the past where it's always about oh the next thing how do we react? What's the right thing to do what's the wrong thing to do we have not been strategic and Famously the drums when I was have an open strategic In foreign policy Geopolitics is even a swear word and in the German politics now that you know people say oh got this person things geopolitically This is this is usually not a compliment It's sort of a cultural thing that has sort of happened to us We've allowed it to happen to us and I think you know that's where we we need to Think and also the thing we're talking about in the capital markets union I had to bring it in would have been the first podcast where we hadn't mentioned it You know this part of it because you need to fund these things You need to find ways to fund these things and not saying okay, but my banks, you know don't like this If you attitude is that you know you're seeing the obstacles or rather than seeing the opportunities That's part of the strategic thinking process Um that I think we're lacking Yeah, of course you have to be clear minded about the obstacles But you also have to say well if if it's worth it then we can we can overcome obstacles right that obstacles aren't They're not impassable barriers. They're things that you can overcome To be fair to Karne I think that if you look at Canadian domestic politics He is trying to do a lot of different things and really shift The way that Canada works as a country The difficulty comes back to and I think this is something you mentioned earlier in the podcast the fact that you can't really do this by yourself Karne can do this he can try to do this the Canadian federal government can try to do this But Canada is a federal system where the provinces maintain a high degree of autonomy Including on some aspects of economic policy and he's been reducing the the federal barriers to trade within Canada Which is a very serious problem But the provinces also have their own barriers and this is where he's run into issues And you know, of course there are various things that Karne can try to do if he wants to To coerce the provinces into doing what he wants But at the end of the day firstly that might be counterproductive if they just dig their heels in And secondly, without completely changing the Canadian constitution, short of that which People have tried to do it before and they failed There's nothing that you can do individually and again it speaks to a very sort of narrow political perspective On the parts of his interlocutors where it's like okay Well, we just have to think about the next thing and then this is it and I think for a lot of Canadians it's getting increasingly frustrating because There's this problem which quite a few Canadians increasingly and maybe rightly regard as an existential threat But the politics in lots of the country hasn't caught up with this And I think there are some analogies there for what we're you know dealing with here in Europe Which is to say I think that what the US does is a much more imminent problem for Canada than it is for Europe for obvious reasons But here the revealed preference is that whatever the objective is is simply not worth it to lots of people compared to The cost of having to change the way that they do things Yeah, so the question is then what does it take for us to change Certainly war would probably do this Not that we wish that to happen But yeah, it you know the the Old Monk cure Oldson argument that Germany and Japan's and you know Readvented the economic models After the Second World War It's true they only did so because they were destroyed And the others were not so successful in those periods because old structures survived in those countries So you will need some destruction Or you can have these kind of modes There are modes of thinking where there are all of a sudden realities are perceived very differently I mean you have that in fashion for example All of a sudden something become fashionable and everyone thinks they always been like that There is something that really shifts how we perceive the world And I do think that we are in this area where perceptions of reality do shift And we just have to make sure that this is a We can't make sure but It's it's something that's happening anyways. I mean, of course it includes war but it's only one option And I think there's much more to it than just war It's not necessarily need that big trigger But as in fashion things just come out of nowhere and all of a sudden they're hit and you have no idea why So I put this out there to say I'm not sure that this is happening But there are many ways how perceptions can shift And it will just take time probably more time than a war But these things happen and they happen in tiktok They happen in whatever the younger generations are known to be more overtrained followers So maybe that is something that can also build new trends Or build around new trends that are more healthy Than we have been experiencing in the past No, I agree. I mean war is in the language of logic The sufficient condition but not necessary One I agree, war will do it but there are other ways of doing this The economic decline could do this You could have a protracted period of industrial decline in Europe And people made one point get fed up Yeah, I'm not at this page because we're very rich People always think when an economy decline something has to happen Something's about to happen No, it's usually not the case Rich countries can decline for a very long time And we see how, for example, Germany, very rich country We're not even close to the moment where they panic nationally So they say we must do something But we may be there in eight or ten years time These things can happen and then shift As you said, you know, like fashions Or like intellectual fashions might shift at that point And people say, look, we need the system isn't working anymore And another possibility is a debt crisis And perhaps much more realistic Look at France France has had it in this direction That five more years of that would have very serious effects And it could lead to basically the country becoming ungovernable What about having three years of Donald Trump? I mean, this is not necessarily you're talking about rational arguments And rational ways But they might well be just fed up with unity with us And they're just out of being fed up with that And so, well, we want to have a different discourse We are lacking, we are really yearning for something new And would that not be a breathing crowd for something? I mean, we know the discourse of the far right But I mean, we talk about it in my migration all the time This is not really solving anybody's problems, right? So there must be something more than a imaginative thing Out there that actually can mobilize In a positive way rather than the negative way That the far right tries to harvest from the fear positioning And I think after Donald Trump might be a good incentive Yeah, I mean, three years of Trump may probably not do it But three years of Trump plus eight years of JD Vans We'll almost surely do this I think the European instinct will be, okay, Trump is over And three years will get a cuddly Democrat And things will be fine I think I think then the question is what if the Democrats not so cuddly Yeah, that's the next But the way the Europeans think that's a question for tomorrow That's what the lack of strategic thinking does to you And they have always done this So I remember when we wrote about the Eurozone crisis And you know we're saying this is not conceivable, it's sustainable And this is a able to do with that tomorrow That was basically how people act when they don't think strategically I always thought that Americans, whether they're on the right or the left Don't think like that They might, you know, they have different strategies But this sort of all, let's deal with this problem tomorrow It's less prevalent in the U.S. discourse than it is in the EU Because you can afford it, you can get away with it And strategic thinking doesn't pay off in European politics We know that Whether it's constitutional reforms and economic policy Whether it's rethinking your security architecture Managing the war in Ukraine Be strategic about this But the goals, the means and the what it takes And Europeans don't have that They lost that And many people might say, it's good, we don't have it Because we didn't always use it to To the best ends, I think to put it very, very mildly So it's, I fear that's the reality One, I guess, final thought from me I think to one of these, you know, one of the various comforting things we tell ourselves too Is this notion that the U.S. is this declining power, right? Which I guess in some respects you could see the argument for this Especially from the economic data And granted people say different things Like, oh, well, it's a declining power So we don't really have to worry about this Or it's a declining power and declining powers We're even more dangerous Which is what I've heard But then what if the U.S. isn't, right? What if this is just one of the periodic troughs The U.S. goes through It dusts itself off and gets back up again But it's decided in the process That it's alliance with us is not necessary to do that Anymore I agree with you that this is indeed a very realistic scenario I would also not ride off the U.S. prematurely U.S. Europeans often tend to do I suspect technology has a role to play I think on this note Thank you for listening Until next week