How Sports Sharps Are Using Prediction Markets Right Now (Episode 982 with Adam Levitan, Nigel Eccles, Henry Kerins, Sports_Projections)

[MUSIC] Hello and welcome to episode 982 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR. I am a part of the world's most popular market in the world. What is actually going on behind the scenes when they go on a prediction market? Sure. There are basically two stages to a trade on the prediction market, which we call the make and the take. And so I'll start with sports books as a point of reference. So if draft kings post a bunch of lines for an upcoming game, let's say the Cavs Pistons game that's coming up, you know, they might post over under 24 and a half points for James Harden. And they also offer a price on both sides. They're going to have minus one 15 on both sides. They set the line in the price on a prediction market. A calcium, a polymarket and no big. We're only going to open up James Harden over under 24.5 points. That's the market. But the exchange has no part in setting the price. So then market makers come on and start making offers to say, oh, I would sell this at minus 150, no problem. Somebody all says, I'd sell a hundred bucks at minus 112 over minus 110. I'd sell just the under, just the over. This collaborative process of offering better and better pricing and trying to beat other market makers so that you're at the front of the queue and offering the best price to the user is price discovery. And this is what pushes those spreads to be tighter on prediction markets than it would be on the sportsbook. This is kind of the platonic ideal of the whole thing, right? And the aggregate of all of this is what we call the order book. Where you click on a market and you can see the total liquidity available at every price on both sides of the market. So that offering period, which is available to every single user. I say market maker because a market maker is just some what we call somebody who participates in that process either programmatically or manually on an app or a desktop site. That's completely novel compared to a sportsbook. Now, the second half of the trade is taking and this is what people are a lot more familiar with, right? You might just call this beddock. You open up the app, you see those prices, you pick the side you like, you type in an amount you want, you submit, right? And that process is not really any different between a sportsbook and a prediction market for the recreational to even moderately sophisticated trader. The process by which that liquidity was available to them is very different. But they're simply just seeing a price and taking what's there. However, if you're a serious professional sports, better trader, there are a lot of meaningful differences. For instance, the fact that you can see exactly how much liquidity is available to you and know that once you take it, it is gone. And then see the next action that is taken to some market maker automatically reload more at that quantity. So they move their prices aggressively. You're not identified, the person on the other side of the trade has no idea that you're their counterparty, you're never going to get limited for this activity. So I think it's one of these things that's deceptively similar. But the more you dig into it, there's a lot of like meta-game to it. Like for instance, all these executions are public, right? You could just be subscribing to a feed and seeing the activity on these markets. GraphKings doesn't publish a public ledger of every trade that happens in all these markets. So yeah, I think it's one of these things that the more you dig, the more you find these layers of complexity that really expand what a prediction market is in comparison to a sportsbook. I mean, it's fair to say that this is effectively how the stock market or financial markets work. If I want to go by shares of Nvidia, I go on and I find the most accurate price because there are market makers competing to get my action, to get my bid on Nvidia, right? Yeah, you never worry about getting screwed over buying a few shares of Nvidia for this exact reason. Right. Okay. So Henry highlighted some things why this might be better for takers, the easiest one, the most obvious one. And I do want to get Nigel's take on this is the whole limiting aspect around sportsbooks. The obvious one, so many people that listen to this show can only bet a dollar on draftings or they can only bet 10% of what they should be able to on Fandall. And this is very frustrating to a lot of rec plus or people trying really hard or sharp people. Is that enough Nigel? And I know for people, I just want to be clear to people Nigel actually left Fandall before Paspa was repealed. So Nigel was running Fandall as a DFS site, which obviously is near and dear to my heart. But I'm just I'm curious. Nigel, if you think that that alone is enough to convince the market that prediction markets are indeed better for consumers. Yeah, well, actually, I've been involved prediction markets since 2000. So before Flutter was a parent company was it was actually a personal person batting exchange and emerged a bad fair in 2001. I was actually part of that transaction. I also launched bettack in 2003, which was a betting exchange, we have sort of Dublin. So I'm in a huge fan of what we used to go betting exchanges. We not call them prediction markets for about 25 years. Let's say what my experiences being with them is for certain end of the market, betting, betting exchanges are better. And it's going to be your really price sensitive customer. And certainly your professional, semi professional. And should we call them aspiring professional. Because aspiring professions are good name for it because a lot of people are not they're not profitable even, but they sort of aspire to be. So we've seen and we've seen this in a lot of markets. The UK, for example, betting exchanges or bad fair dominated that market. From early sure 2000s, I would say bad fair today is probably less than 5% of the UK market. And there's really was no limitation on it. Part of it was definitely execution. Bad fair was not honestly, I kind of laugh on it when I see the interface. We redesigned the interface and it was in 2004. And it's still pretty much the same interface today. And you know, when you look at an eye joke with my friends, I say we did such an amazing job that they just couldn't batter it in 20 or 22 years. But you know, that's not they just really have under invested in it. And so they definitely need a lot of mistakes and they basically under invested in it and it became a little like eBay. At the same time though, I think even with the best execution, it probably wasn't going to get to more than say 20, 25% of the market. Because retail and by this, I mean recreational players, people that you know, either want to win, but that's not long term winning being aspirational profitable like being a trader is not why they play. And so what we find in the UK is that a lot of these people didn't, you know, the things they didn't like about exchanges. They didn't like the complexity. They just find it confusing. Weiser two prices. Weiser like six price. crisis, right? And the other thing that we discovered users like is that users actually prefer bonuses to good prices. And so just a very simply good price when a user doesn't even often read the price and they don't compare prices, they don't really see price. But they do know when they get here's $100. And so the problem for exchange is certainly in the UK was that if your margin is like 1%, you can't be out giving like lost back and feeding money back into it. So for the massive retail, I think as we see the US play out, I think they'll still be on sportsbooks. If ever then being equal, I can, you know, if sportsbooks are available in every state. But for the price sensitive, the professional aspiring professional, that market, largely as much to exchange us. Okay. Yeah. And I totally agree. And I actually had some question more specific on that later, which we'll get to. SP though, is there stuff beyond not getting limited? That would be an advantage for people playing on prediction rights. Because this is number one question that I get. And we got a bunch of questions. I asked for questions for this show. And a lot of people were like, I don't get it. Why should I play on prediction market versus a sportsbook what makes it better? Obviously, the limiting thing, I think it's clear to everyone beyond that SP. Any other takes on why people would be interested in playing on prediction markets. Yeah. I mean, you hit, you hit the big thing. I think it's limiting. I think there's a couple of other things that, you know, at least pop to mind for me. I mean, on, on most these prediction markets, there's way more uptime if not 100% uptime, which is meaning odds are live, basically like all the time. So for like even just a recreational customer, that is a better, better betting experience. You know, for most people, then the constant great out odds boxes. So that's, you know, one point for people who are trying to win or just recreational that that has been interesting because, you know, in the prediction markets right now, so much of the action is actually live. Because this is like a huge leg up. I think they have over, you know, the traditional sportsbooks right now. The other thing that I think that is worth highlighting and it's sort of related to limiting and it's sort of related to a point Henry made is it really, I think there's a subset of people who like aspire to make this more than just, you know, betting for fun. And it's like a hobby to them, something they take seriously. And this is an outlet for that where they don't see like a roadblock where it's just going to end when they get limited. And so I think it, you know, like Nigel was saying, I think it attracts like a different type of people who want to take it, you know, more seriously like other types of hobbies like running or anything who just get like really into their hobby and aren't just, you know, betting afterwork to get a little bit of entertainment. Yeah, I've seen a lot of people say you always get the best price, you always get the best price. Sometimes if I, and I haven't done this that much, but sometimes if I go on Calishe or something, it looks like it's the best price. And then after the fees, the price on sportsbook is actually better. So like, do you have a take on that? Henry, like, are we actually getting the best price after the fees that you get when you take? I mean, are you going to bait me into shilling my own drive? The Calishe fees are heinous. I think, you know, we're, we're not an equilibrium at all for this. Right. We're talking about a year ago, nobody had ever even heard of these products. And now you've had just one player that's really had extended time with an actual CFTC license in the United States, which is Calishe, and they've been able to charge whatever they want because of that advantage. I think you're naturally going to see fees get pushed down everywhere. And on low fee platforms, I mean, the prices are insanely good. We every night are offering NFL NBA games that are one cent wide, like just the most insane bid aspect of your overseeing your life. But tonight's point, I think there will be a kind of user preference discovery period as well, which is do users prefer paying higher fees, which then are rebated to them in the form of bonuses. You know, bonuses probably aren't strictly speaking directly legal on federally regulated exchanges, but there are variants of that, right? Like, for instance, the broker that is pointing you into a prediction market is not the same business as the market itself, right? So when you when you trade PM contracts on Robinhood, they're actually executing on Calishe. So do people start building, you know, consumer centric business layers on top of these things, right? And what are the financial arrangements between these companies look like? A lot of this kind of sounds like boring details. But I think what I'm saying is we've we've seen exchanges before we've seen bad firm whatever we've never seen American venture capital back to the tune of $2 billion exchanges before. And that's a different beast. And that's when you start seeing like an entire economy of major players building an ecosystem around these things. And a lot of the the downsides of the product that you guys are describing, I think are really UI UX stuff that is solvable. I totally agree on that. Yeah. Actually, you know, already, you know, bad fairs is a 25 year head star. And when Fondill said, Hey, we're going to go and launch an exchange. What do they do? You're surely they go to their season proven product. They don't go near it. I'm ready. We're seeing with the front ends with like no big and calcium, particular. It's better. It's better than that fair as hard and, you know, forever. And I just think the money money going in here, we're going to see a lot of innovation that's going to end in a different result than what we saw in the UK. Okay. One thing that you guys didn't bring up that I thought was a benefit for takeer, like someone like me, I like to bet markets that often on the sports, but are not too way. So I'm trying to bet stuff like who will lead the game in receiving yards. That is not a two way market on draft kings or fandal. Correct me if I'm wrong. I believe all the markets on prediction markets are two way is that is that fair? Is that not is that not true? SP? They're all they're all technically two way right because someone's on on both sides of it on certain sites and certain prediction markets. It's easier to to actually access one side of that. You know, for example, like on on CalChi, it's actually you have to go through for example, like the API to actually get on the the no sides of certain trades. We'll talk about RFQs probably in a little bit. That's not something you can just take the opposite side of very easily. But the short answer to your question is yes, there's there's sort of both sides of every trade. So in theory, assuming the order book is open, yeah, there's a way to get on on both sides of each trade. Okay. Um, not going to hit on something that I wanted to just discuss the state. There are big states in America that do not have legal sportsbooks right now. Florida, Texas, California, Georgia among them. I have no insight into the data whatsoever. My assumption is that most of the action on these prediction markets right now is coming from those states because those people can't be on draft kings and fandal. And like Nigel said, if given the choice, maybe they maybe they go on a prediction market or maybe the people in California will say, Hey, I want the bonuses and you know, whatever else that comes on on fandal and draft kings and seizures, et cetera. So Nigel, how do you think this plays out in states like that if they ever get? I don't know if you have a take on if California. It's like saying New York, we have both or states like California, Texas, Georgia, Florida. Do you think those will ever get sports legal sports betting? I guess. And what do you think happens when they go head to head there? Like so, I think we have legal sports betting and something like 40 or 60% of the country by population. And California Florida does, but it's just hard rock. It's monopoly. It's a seminal tribe. Um, the only way I see that opening up is if the seminal tribe, they decide to open it up. Um, Texas is kind of feels like a wham, but is it two years? Is it four years? It's six years. Don't know. Um, then California is like, you know, it's no one knows. Um, but not anytime soon. Um, and so it's a huge problem. I get Texas and California are two of your biggest states. Uh, and that's the timeline. Marrival for really unpredictable. I, California could be a never like it on, you know, it just doesn't through the, you know, state regulated route. I also would say that as a, as a, you know, regulated operator, if you had a choice between doing it via, you know, CFTC license are going in and paying the massive rick at the state's going to ask, at the tribes are going to ask for, you're going to much rather go in by the CFTC. Uh, and that's what you're seeing. Like California, uh, found it was not in California via the CFTC. That would be their preferred option. Um, and so they, they may not even be lobbying anymore in California because they're like, look, we're here. You know, we don't need to go down the, the state route. Yeah. From, uh, you know, working at Novick Henry, do you guys have any concern that if these states ever got sports betting that prediction market volume would go down significantly if those big states ever got sports betting? Well, before we had a little legal hiccup in New York, New York was always our number one or number two high high as volume state and has like fully legalized OSB. And I think a major reason is there's a lot of very sophisticated sports traders in New York and it's it's just simply a completely different experience and product for people like that. I also think, you know, that product parity is very achievable. A lot of the built in advantage of trafficking and fandall is from brand recognition which if you're talking about states that don't have legal sports betting like the you know people see the ads but they don't have the apps installed on their phone right the stickiness factors really not there. And then you know as Nigel talked about like the I think you are really the ability to exist as a rapper around pms is just beginning to be explored like the fandall and D. K. predicts products kind of work that way but it they're not sophisticated yet they they haven't attracted customers for obvious reasons but that path is very doable and there are a lot of tax advantages to it there are a lot of regulatory advantages to it. So there are a bunch of these factors that kind of combine to make prediction markets actually a really attractive new product category even in spite of the entrenched players in my opinion. Okay. I want to move to market making and this is what Henry started with how this all works behind the scenes now there's a marketing on this and Nigel kind of alluded to at the beginning a lot of these sites they market it like a sports books are screwing you which whatever okay I might agree. Come back against your peers on prediction markets cool sounds great in theory except what's really going on is some of the sharpest financial institutions in the world like Susquehanna or jump trading or your counterparty or Rufus P body is your counterpart party or Henry and his team or cow she's internal trading you get my point the counter party isn't some random on the street it's quite possibly someone more sophisticated and draft kings or fandall I'm not sure that matters that much though. S. P. doesn't matter like who your counterparty is if I want to bet next minus seven and draft kings is offering minus one 10 and a market makers minus offering minus one oh two so I really care who my counterparty is S. P. So I think we need to when we have this conversation we need to split it up into better so like want to win and are taking this seriously and the recreational customers so we think of just like the recreational customers first and foremost like they should not be scared at all in my opinion of betting against you know SIG or any of these companies at better prices than they could get at you know the equivalent OSB book. The idea that you know you're betting into someone sharp so you don't want a better better price is just like unfounded and not that doesn't really make sense so that's you know the first part I think the part you're you're getting at and like the the discourse around this I see on Twitter is when you have competition for price and you don't have you know like you know the draft kings and fandall and what not having a monopoly on the price. The idea is that the competition is going to get you a a sharper price so for time right and so where it's harder to win so the idea is that a minus one oh two on Calishe isn't is not better than you know minus one 10 on on draft kings the idea is that over time we're going to be very certain that the price is between you know the bounds the spread of what's on Calishe so I think from that lens like if you are you know trying to win and take this seriously like that's a serious issue. Like that's a serious consideration of like we have many smart people competing now if there's you know a million a million shares on each side they're probably pretty confident that the price is in between these two and maybe we shouldn't bet this anywhere is sort of the economy I think through yeah well and my thought was like let's say I find some amazing golf line on cash and like oh my god this is off market is the best line in the world then I come to find out that's Rufus is lying do I really want to be on the other side of Rufus of what Rufus is leaning on the other side of the world. That Rufus is lean is against the market in a long term that sounds like a losing proposition for me right. And that's where what's going to be interesting to see how this plays out is you know like I think the whole you know sports pet betting discourse on sharp there's like this idea of what sharp books are right and you know it's the classic like panic all type of type of deal those are like the truth the points of truth. There's more money on these prediction markets than like anywhere right now and so you know there's there's going to be this this point where flips where you know the sharpest point is you know the prediction markets and there's games being played about you know exactly that like leans and like people know they use pinnacle as a source of truth so I can shade and I can get like lots of liquidity because I have all these people thinking it's the sharp side and all this is going to sort of evolve over time it's not like a static thing but yeah that's that's sort of the point where I right now yeah well yeah I mean it's it feels that the marketing side of it Nigel you you brought up where it doesn't feel great however you are if you're consistently getting the best price you are more likely to win you will have less loses. In the ecosystem if they are all consistently getting a better price than they are elsewhere we've been down this path though Nigel with marketing around these kind of products I mean I'm sure you remember you know DFS coming up at the presidential debate they were like yes they ask Chris Christie at the Republican debate like what do you think about playing fantasy on fandal and drafting so I was like oh my god they're talking about this like it's gotten so out of control they're talking about this in a presidential so would you have any advice to Kashi or anyone else my marketing this stuff I understand the marketing that it's not gambling because like you want to do you know positions of financial product that would sit naturally under the CFTC there's going to be rulings on this doesn't help if you then market your sports batting and then say in a court that it's not judges see that and they do sometimes called bullshit on it my issue with it is like I love gambling and like I always love gambling and I've worked in the gambling industry 25 years every product like I've never marketed a product that was gambling as you know a way to get ahead as something that was like a financial instrument that you know that you should be sitting beside your stocks and shares and you know something for your kids college fund I fundamentally find I find that on ethical I think it's it's deeply wrong I think people are going to get absolute destroyed and not just their you know this is just their you know they're spending money like gambling should be an expenditure that well if you're professional sure like you're going to you know you're going to bet on yourself go for it but I find the marketing from some entities and not no big so as a company but you know like Calcio this stuff like some Calcio I think is outrageous and I think it's an ethical and I think their investors should be taking them aside and saying like you're making loads of money but this is going to come and bite you not just it's not just wrong it's coming up in court and it's it's going to it's going to change perception you cannot pass off loads and loads and loads of people like yes you may have Trump and the White House now it's a very lousy fire approach but there'll be another present there be another administration and if you create a product that bind crops people and you've been marketing it as something that you know that people are going to get ahead with it's going to have bad repercussions and so that's that's kind of my big issue I love these products and I you know I'm a fan and but it's just when you market in that way I just find that I just find it deeply wrong yeah and I think it'll backfire on those companies really badly well it's also ubiquitous right and just like DFS commercials were in in late 2014 early 2015 you know everything that how ubiquitous part is hard to challenge because like everyone's in a race you know we're all going to like we want and you know like even remember when we talked with our ads being ubiquitous we weren't nearly as big as this is like personal injury or like auto insurance or something no one complained about it and so I'm like and these are terrible ads so I'm always I think the bigity doesn't bother me as much as the what is the content so yeah I don't I don't worry about as much as that all right I want to get deeper into the market making stuff Henry I'm sure there are some people listen to this and we have a lot of very sharp listeners I'm sure they are thinking man I'd love to be a market maker and believe me I have had that exact same thought it's kind of consume me ever since sps risk taker podcast talked about ETR highly highly recommend episode 140 of the risk takers podcast with sp but anyway like becoming a market maker feels so daunting to me like I think slash no we have the best numbers on player props and sgps for NFL and NBA I think slash no we have the best numbers for parlay's across other sports as well we spent an outrageous amount of money developing this stuff we have a huge team dying in the inputs but we're not traders and so like for a lot of people that listen to this we're like sports people the idea of running a financial institution seemingly behind the scenes is like so daunting so Henry what would you say to like regular people like me who might have some numbers or opinions and no sports but have no experience whatsoever in the financial markets market making yeah well I will say that the risk takers podcast is great for conversations about this and that I also do a podcast with my partner, Chris Deerckis, called Inside Prediction Markets, where we talked to a lot of what we call garage band market makers who are, you know, individuals or small teams doing this and a lot having success and targeting different areas. There's a clumsy metaphor I've been using recently that probably is a serving bee, but I'm going to drag it up one more time, which is that in market making, you have almost like the the Walter White and Gus Frings split. And for those who haven't seen Breaking Bad, Walter White's job is to make the best met in the world. That's all he knows how to do. He has no other business skills. He's if anything, a tremendous liability to the operation. And Gus Fring is the ruthless business man who understands the entire criminal underworld and all the key players. And if he simply has great meth, he can make the whole business happen. And market making is a lot like that where if you're somebody like Adam who has great numbers, right, if you're cooking the best meth in the world, you know you have something valuable, but it's very dangerous to just go out there with it and not understand what you're getting involved in. And then there are players, people like me who really, truly understand every single little detail of how these ecosystems have formed and who is active in them and where's the risk and where's the opportunity and how do we manage all of that. And so I think partnerships that are formed between your proverbial Walter White's and Gus Frings are often the strongest approach to doing this. And so I would say the first thing is to decide, you know, am I am I going to consume a bunch of inside prediction markets and risk takers content and kind of learn the entire ecosystem or am I going to buy every single ETR product and reverse engineer all the numbers and become like a modular par excellence. And then how do I collaborate with others to kind of put this all together into a system that really works for me? Because you know, your competition is working that hard. So you can't cut corners. You have to similarly bring a complete holistic approach to doing this if you want to have success, but it is possible. Okay. Work me if I'm wrong, but some of the biggest market makers right now are not sports people. They are financial institutions, Susquehanna, jump trading, whatever. They might not even have their own numbers from ironson. I could be wrong. Maybe they don't even have their numbers. They're just winning based on their knowledge of trading and the ecosystem and how this all works. Is that fair to say do you think SP or yeah, what's your take on the whole aspect of people winning right now and how they're winning right now as market makers and how long that can last? I was trying to think of a number beforehand and I'm curious what Henry's number would be or Nigel's, but my guess is probably 98 plus percent of volume traded on these big sites. The person doesn't, isn't like building up their own number from scratch would be my guess. So like a very, very high percent. I think it's part like I said, like a billion dollar industry propped up on five K pinnacle limits to an extent right now and trading off of that. I think there are also sophisticated, because I think the way Henry broke it up is exactly right. They're sort of like build up the price and then there's people who are just what I would call good at trading and those people are in finance and everything. I mean, what jump and sig in all these companies are good at is not necessarily knowing everything about everything. They're good at like traded and seeing orders and reacting to that and all of that stuff. So that's like a separate skill. So I mean, I'm curious like Henry's perspective on, to me right now, the more valuable skill is the trading just right now. I don't know if that's like a forever thing. I think in my head sort of lodging through, there'll be more importance of like having the right price and that's another, you know, alert of prediction markets is in theory. You're competing on like who can come up with the best price in theory. So right now I would say emphasis on trading, but yeah, more on. Well, they'll be quite different. So the international so bat tax operates in international markets. So it's soccer, cricket, tennis golf and the international market, I would say, so I don't know as much about the US market, but the market makers on bat tax are much more specialized. So there'll be tennis market makers, there'll be cricket market makers and soccer, they will really only focus on their sports. And they generally will have a pretty strong view. I'm not saying they're still traders, but all of them will come in with a view and then they'll trade around that. And I do know that some of them have not crossed over to the US. So like that's certainly the international market and maybe the US ends up there where you get more professionalized or more dedicated market makers that go by sport. Yeah, I mean, before you go, Henry, I just want to kind of explain to people what I think is going on. People are getting a quote unquote fair number to trade off of and you don't have, you could just be a financial bro and you could go on whatever you think is sharp, pinnacle or bookmaker or circa or you could find the SGP price on Fandall or whatever. And they're taking that number, essentially copying someone else's work and just trade it and just trading off of that. Is that fair to say Henry and House sustainable is that for market makers? There's a lot of that happening and because of a tragedy of the commons effect, even if each individual is only putting up a little bit of cash to do that and trying to be responsible cumulatively, it can add up to enormous amounts of money kind of being copytrated. And if you watch the ticker tape closely, you will notice certain times of day that markets drift one direction and then the order book on the prediction market explodes and then the markets come right back to where they were before. So certainly people have started taking advantage of these things. There's some legal issues around that. But I will say in a traditional market making sense, like we almost don't even really have a concept of fair internally. We have an opener, we have a mid price. We get a fill, we move our number, do we think the new number is more accurate than the last one? Maybe let's see what the next fill is, right? We're never really fully beholden to a view of what the true probability of something is. It's more that we have a system that we think is minimally exploitable, that dances around action. So I don't think you need to build every number from the ground up because the number you build from the ground up is really just your opener. That being said, one of the key differences between the more traditional European and maybe even South American markets versus American markets is in Europe you have a long tail of leagues and sports, right? There's a ton of soccer leagues, a lot of tennis, cricket, whatever. And a relatively limited number of markets within them, like the money lines, spreads, and totals are doing a ton of the volume where in America, people are really just betting the biggest six to eight leagues or so, but there's hundreds and hundreds of markets in each game. All of these like long tail props. And then if you start actually counting discrete combinations of skaming the N Parles, it's like literally an uncapped number of unique markets that trade on a daily basis. So the opportunities for having kind of niche origination that is then folded in with market numbers are endless in American sports, right? Like, you could just simply have a unique view on the relationship between Jalen Brown's assist and Jason Tatum's three, right? That like, oh, they're more or less correlated than usually is the case. And then everything else is market numbers, but all of a sudden I kind of have this unique view about the specific combo. And these guys play, you know, 80 games a season. And so over the course of the season, that's a big opinion to have. And so I think we're like really just in the like first inning of people finding ways to inject those kinds of opinions into all the different products that trade on these markets. I mean, speaking of being in the first innings, my thought on this is right now being a market maker, you can win without having an opinion, without knowing what the fair is. Because it gets more and more competitive. And I expect this fall to be way, way, way more competitive amongst market makers, having a number that you think you can trade to or you can undercut this or, you know, I don't know anything about trading, but I would think that being able to get closer and closer to the fair without going past it or what you think is the fair without going past it would be a huge advantage for a market maker. And like, maybe it's not that important right now, but like Henry's saying in the future, when it's super competitive around market, I assume that it will obviously, I'm talking to my own book here because I think we have great numbers, but is where it is. Okay. I want to go to taking. So it seems like all of those sharpest people and institutions are making markets, right? They're not going around taking bets from what I can tell, which makes sense to me, right? Like, it reminds me, SP a little bit of the DFS head to head lobby. And, you know, Nigel obviously started the DFS head to head lobby with a chat, which for anyone who was early on Fando, Nigel has to take it down, but there was a chat on Fando queer. We were playing head to head and it was meant to just like talk to each other but people were at a control It was so fun. They had to kill it Nigel had to kill it But it was you know we would get support tickets and oh so me I don't know the brawn I was told the brawn is on his plan and I'm like who told you the brawn is I I'm like in chat Yeah Exactly, but anyways, it reminds me like a little bit of the DFS head to head lobby where I I still do this to this day I will only post games in the head to head lobby for people to take all take my chances against any random Anyone who wants to play me, but I rarely scoop someone's head to head in DFS That's already posted because I assume if they're if they're posting they're they're probably pretty sharp They're willing to take on all comers. They're probably pretty sharp. So What is the merits in taking here? SP with that in mind Yeah, I think so there's two parts this maybe I think the obvious thing on some of the In general every site, you know that has fees who's charging some type of fees in general the takeer fee is gonna be higher than the the maker fee In general reason that is is from the site's perspective if you're a casual polymarket whatever like It's more valuable to have people make markets and provide liquidity and get you know like have it be a good user experience So that's just generally the direction So there's just a fee portion of it But I think the DFS example is a good one is really it's like an adverse selection problem And if you just like got a gambling if if you know I'm laying down a challenge an open challenge saying I can run a six-minute mile People would probably be pretty stupid to come challenge me to that But in the reverse it doesn't necessarily work that way. So I think there's just like a An adverse selection problem of like you know someone is posting this price for a reason It I'm not saying it's always right. It's certainly not there's certainly good opportunities to take but The idea is like most makers are trying and do you really want to be going against someone who's trying whereas a good portion of takers aren't really trying? Yeah, well, I have an example of something that that I thought was a good place to take I had someone tell me that Matt Nagy was going to be the next coach of the Tennessee Titans and I thought it was a pretty good source So I went on to Calche and I blasted a bunch on and like it was unlimited I mean I there was a ton of liquidity. I could take like a ton on Matt Nagy to be the next Titans coach I paid the fees, but I thought I had this like Information with that I couldn't really use on any other place in this market was up turned out that the source was wrong And you know, I got I got it wrong and I lost the money But my point was like that was I thought a really good place to be a taker where The only place in the world where I could get how much I wanted on this was on Calche or Or you know some other prediction markets. So I'm not sure that in allergy with Thandel it is quite as tight because You know with Thandel like Our skill players where Like highly skilled the difference between the the top and the average was was very significant Whereas here You can I see even just quantify the difference. You know, it's no. I don't I'm not sure it's as sharp like the So I wouldn't be as concerned about taking There are certainly kisses we see with people sniping and they're very good at it. They're spotting the things are out of whack They're very disciplined. I don't I kind of see on battex. I seen people more You know they'll trade both, you know make a kneltake And the you know the profitable players. So it's not as distinct as with the fan goalers like Yeah, there's guys you don't want to go up against sure for sure. Yes We got a question of her zig Henry. He said What should retail slash casual traders be doing to have a chance against The market makers I'm not sure that there's like advice for this beyond what you would tell people to do on a sportsbook But did you see any differences for retail slash casuals when trying to win as takers on PMs versus sportsbooks? Yeah, well, there's a there's a general framework. Obviously I can't give specific advice like you know There's no I can't help you handicap But it's it's pretty comparable to poker, right? If you're like how do I get to put good at poker? It's like well you start at one cent two cent and when you're winning you move up like there sticks The same thing exists in prediction markets, right? If you're if you're trying to get started Low liquidity markets or low liquidity regimes of markets, right? So when they open or you know Ball in air, right like live that nobody really wants to quote those are areas where You can tell from the fact that the market is very wide and liquidity is very low that nobody really feels confident About what they're doing and so either as a taker you know well, this must be a very vulnerable Serbissary of attack or other people would feel comfortable putting more size up Or if you're interested in becoming a maker you can say look Nobody's competing here. Maybe it's because there's just not enough order flow. This isn't popular enough I won't get rich doing this. It's like playing one cent two cent poker But I can at least learn the ropes and and if I put up 50 bucks I'm going to be top of book and actually get fills because nobody else is even trying to stay right so it could be You know csgo challenger level tennis You know player props and traditionally its sportsbooks don't really get posted to like Thursday um prediction markets open them all way earlier in the week like you can if you're making numbers You can come in on Monday with props for Sunday and say look Nobody wants to post this except for like dfs pickham sites I have an opinion here it is, you know, and I think just kind of doing that process of like I'm going to play at the level where I'm I'm winning and as soon as my bankroll gets bigger I I take that shot. It's something a little harder is Is the general framework you want to follow? Yeah, man. I think that's great It's great advice for sure, and I've certainly thought about doing that as well. All right. I only have a listen question You know, I think I'm just out on that is specialization really matters like being able to like you know pick a sport and get really really sharp on it um and the other one is like You know, don't be limited in yourself to like one exchange. It's there's you know like this is a traitor's paradise You know, you should be looking you should be looking at cross exchanges and books Um, it shouldn't be limited. There's just so much opportunity here that You know, when you see somebody who's like sort of stuck in one's changer like you you're not going to get profiled that way You really got to look across the market. Okay. Yeah, agree before we get to listen to questions Nigel I'd be remiss about and ask you about the regulatory outlook here just because I know you went for years state by state you went Lodges for DFS it was really shaky at times. I mean, I I've know I've told the story a million times But I was up at like three in the mornings wetting a New York state assembly Yes situation And like if that had not gone hour way and I say hour like I was part of Nigel's team, but if it not gone hour way Uh, you know DFS. We know DFS right and I wouldn't be here talking to you guys Yeah, right here right now. So Nigel has been through the wars of regulatory I know that I am a turbo knit, but my god the valuation on how she was 22 billion probably was 15 billion I could never write a check at those numbers Knowing that the legal standing to me Seems shaky like there's gonna be a Supreme Court case. I assume we could get a new CFTC chair a new administration Whatever so as someone who's kind of been through this Nigel How do you see the regulatory Proc just playing out so it's very different from DFS is the first thing to say it is very different DFS was a state issue wasn't a federal issue um and So to win what we had to do was to get either neutralize the AG so the AG was like I don't care And there was lots of states maybe 20 out of states the AG didn't care there wasn't any issue Or we had to get proactive legislation in those states and a lot of people don't remember but actually we got laws The clarified in 22 states we passed 22 laws in the space of two or three years Which is faster than any company has ever done. This isn't credible including New York um your California for example we neutralize them uh But so we had a sort of on the grind we had lobbyists in every state and that's what kind of see of the the DFS industry This industry and the pathway is going to be completely different. The first thing is that all the states have prediction markets like like you almost universally um and the path here You know CFTC is on side the question is just going to be the court uh and so There's going to be there's already being split decisions in the courts um That's going to go through the appellate process and not it and it will end up the Supreme Court There's there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that it's going to be a Supreme Court Um, and then the Supreme Court is going to make a decision. I will say I'm not going to talk about that there. I will say there are certain things that don't really matter Public perception doesn't really matter. Supreme Court's job is not to like you know see what are people thinking The other thing is I don't think the president matters as much as people think like this Supreme Court has already knocked on tariffs Trump's marquee, you know, this is a big thing and his justices have knocked it down So I don't put any weird on that what I put weird on is you know, what does it say in the CEA and how does that map to what's happening today? And that's what I think that the court will look at um So The other thing is just the time I think it's probably two years um, so You know, I guess we're you know, I sort of runs through split decisions early next year gets briefed End of uh end of next year early 28 and then there's a ruling by the summer of 2020. That's that's kind of and that's kind of a fast time But I think that's the one we're on all right Super interesting. Let's get to the listener questions here will go through five or six of these. Shill says, "How would you guys regulate the insider trading "that can occur when there are markets?" And I don't want to get into the governments and what humans will do in the future. I'm more interested in the sports aspect of it. I.E. let's say there's non-public injury. But let's say I know the janitor for the commanders and he tells me that he was walking by the X-ray room and he saw Jaden Daniels in the X-ray room crying after the game. And I go trade on that. Henry, is that insider trading? Is that illegal? Should that be illegal? Yeah. I don't really care about this stuff. I think everybody's on their own and it's more out there. But I could see why for public perception, this is bad. So what's your take on the insider trading in sports? You should consult your own attorney about what constitutes insider trading. I am not about to tell you what is and isn't legal. Yeah, I think in sports, it's not a moral issue. I don't like the world isn't gonna end if you are ahead of the market on injury news. I do think that it is something that hardly anyone has thought about who is involved in this and that you honestly should, if a big part of your process is insiders. Like I know for college sports people oftentimes, they have networks of trainers and whatnot. Just 'cause the stakes are low in college sports, it's kind of not a big deal to leak information. There's not a well-maintained injury report system like there is in professional sports. So if you are one of those people, like you should consult an attorney about whether or not what you're doing as legal honestly. But it's not like something, you know, with the Maduro rate for it. So if somebody goes and has that information early and bets on it, that could materially have impacted an American security operation in a way that could have cost lives, right? Like that's a big problem. And I think honestly, you know, at the beginning of the controversy around prediction markets, mostly centered around whether or not sports really constituted gaming or these really event contracts, which is something that a lot of people are still concerned about but I think what has been added into that mix is this concern about, you know, war markets, politics markets where, you know, MNPI can actually have damage on human beings. And I think a lot of public officials' attention with regard to regulating prediction markets has shifted to those questions because they really are more important. And if anything, that may have the effect of kind of clearing the road for sports markets in the medium term. But, you know, I'm just kind of hypothesizing here. Yeah, I mean, if you're a maker in sports and you have a lot out there, you could get hit for all of it, right? I mean, I think there's some risk controls in place but if I know Jane Danes is gonna be out and no one else does and I can go bet $200,000 in contracts or dollars or whatever, like you have to take it, right? There's no recourse or anything like that from the-- - Dude, there's no voice. That's your job is to understand, you know, what those risks are and what price signals mean and all of that exactly. - Right. - If you complained to Henry enough, he'll void it though. (laughing) - Yeah, it's definitely insider trading is interesting in sports, like there's even massive issue outside of sports, but inside of sports, we actually think about it, the primary victim of insider trading, historically it was the sports book, you know, so they had this situation where they were the ones getting hit. Now there's a secondary victim, which is sort of the, the integrity of the sport. Like my view is the sports books and the sports leg are so tightly coupled now that they both have an incentive to find the right balance, that I don't really worry about it that much. Like not that I don't think it happens, I think it does, but I don't think, I think in any proper regulated sports, they're gonna do enough to protect themselves and their partners. - Yeah. Super interesting. I can see there's gonna be controversy about this, you know, but, you know, to me it's like all in the game and sports stuff, obviously I agree with Henry on the politics. - I will say if you're talking about situations like, this is a little different, but like John T. Porter for instance. That's a great example, right, where if the, if for those who don't know, John T. Porter was checking out of games early so that all of his under's hit and users on his behalf, or who were connected to him on on drafts and sports books, were betting, you know, big correlated under parlays on every John T. Porter player prop, and it's a big scandal that still hasn't resolved. If those trades had executed on prediction markets, first game people would have flacked it. I mean, that's the value of having public feats, right? If all of a sudden there's unusual activity on relatively exotted combinations, right away, some of these guys say, well, this is atypical. Who was doing this? Why was this happening? You know, so there's a degree to which we can bring a lot more transparency to sports, and it can really benefit everybody who cares about the integrity of sports for all of this activity to be federally reported, open APIs, et cetera, et cetera. So it's not all doom and gloom on that front. - Yeah. Okay, I actually want everyone's take on this next one. It's from Jake, he says, what are the pros and cons of prediction markets market making on their own platform? So the optics on this to people who don't really understand what's going on, I feel like have been bad for prediction markets. I don't, you know, I want to learn more about it. My initial take was like, it's not that big a deal, but the optics seem bad. Nigel, do you have a take on market making on your own platform? - I think it's an optics factor. In fact, like, and it's kind of lost, and my knowledge of some of the market making, and some of the major platforms is that they're not actually even profit seeking. Like a lot of these mentioned markets are getting market made by their own platform because they like the PR. So they're willing to lose money in order to do a, their long game and even a short-term game is not to make money on these. So, but it's just kind of an optics problem that, oh my god, they're fleecing their own customers just like the books, but that's actually not there. I actually giving money away. - Right. - So I think as people kind of learn a bit about it, it's kind of not great, but they start to understand what's happening there. So I don't really worry about it much. - Well, to me, it's like a liquidity issue, right? SP, like if I go on to a prediction market and they don't have a market for something that I want to bet, it's like, why would I ever go back there? I want to bet Justin Herbert under passing yards, and it's not on CalShi. Well, why would I go back there? So I can see why you would want to have an internal market making team to seed these markets. Now, are they going further and trying to win really hard and all this? I have no idea maybe, but yeah, SP and he thoughts on market making on your own platform. - No, I think you nailed it. I mean, it's the same reason the prediction markets, trying to incentivize makers with lower fees is because that value, that action is valuable so that people get a good experience and can actually trade. So it's the same reason why you'd have this. I think Nigel nailed it. At one point, there's a sort of a bug on CalShi while back and they made their internal trading teams, P&L public and they were down massively at that time. That was a while back. And it's 'cause they're trading all this these toxic markets, like mentions and all this garbage that nobody wanted to make at the time. So that's clearly the pro is more liquidity and you have, they're probably the only person in the exchange who is happy to lose money. So that's a good thing. I think where it gets a more interesting conversation is the longer term, if they're around longer term. 'Cause for me, I view this as a very short term, get enough liquidity, hopefully, and then let the participants run its course. And you have, for example, mentions, you have good liquidity on both sides, I would say now and something like that. 'Cause it does beg into question incentives, certain decisions, structure of fees and just how you're designing the ecosystem. If the business is primary way of making money is actually like trading and participating in the market. - Yeah, Henry, obviously you have deep insight into this is that, are you worried about the optics of it or anything else with the making market, making on your own platform? - Yeah, in case it wasn't clear, we are in the process of forming a subsidiary of Novig whose purpose is to market make across all prediction markets, but in particular to be the primary liquidity provider on Novig, and it's what I enjoy the company to do. And something I personally believe very strongly in. Look, it gives the exchange the highest degree of flexibility in servicing their customers. Because if you don't have a partnered market maker, you just end up giving the world away to a say, "Grew a jump trading," who ultimately end up having perhaps even more leverage than your partner, American MakerWood, because they can walk away from it anytime. Now, that being said, I think the main thing that is just a fundamental conflict of interest that every exchange needs to own up to is, if you have a partnered market maker and there's a true settlement issue, right, where it's a game ends early unexpectedly or some outcome that is in the account of where your rules happens. and the exchange simply knows. that making a decision one way is worth a million dollars to us versus another pay. It's impossible to push that out of your head. Right, no human being in the world isn't affected by that to some degree. And so what I would love to see us do and every prediction market do is to put together some kind of independent board of people who come from sports and trading, trusted figures. Somebody like yourself Adam or Spanky, or you know these big figures from sports and to say we'd love to have you on retainer as an advisor and an advocate for players, right? To deal with this and to help us make these decisions in a way that are positive for users. Because ultimately these things do happen. I think the best way to have internal market making that supports the user experience is to not bury your head in the sand about the inevitable conflicts of interest that can arise and be proactive about them instead of pretending they don't exist. Okay. I think it's good one for Nigel. Berkut says, "If the prediction market model survives won't consolidation be inevitable or an order routing service at the very least." I'm not sure whatever happened in your did Bedfair face competition and they just won or. - They were early and just dominated the market from very early on. I was a bettike. We launched 2003 and it was really kind of three years late and it was underfunded. It wasn't a great product. It never really threatened Bedfair. Bedfair merged with Flutter, which was the company I was part of in 2001. It was kind of a fun-to-on-draftkings came together. We defended up dominating. That's what happened with Bedfair. - Sorry, what was in the show? - On prediction markets, do you think this will end in consolidation in the same way we've seen? Not fully with sportsbooks, but DFS sites, really people only play on two now and et cetera. - Yeah, it certainly less than we're gonna have. I don't think I'd want to be. Certainly wouldn't want to be outside the top 10, but it's certainly top five. I think we're gonna see. We may also see more specialization like the sports go one way. We really should have seen with sort of quality in polymarket. Polymarket always think it was more international and more non-sports. We will, we definitely will, but we are gonna have. We have at least five companies with at least a billion kind of committed sort of thing. If you include Robin Hood, Thandil, Draftkings, Scalshi, Polymarket. So there's a lot of big players there spending a lot of money. So I think it's gonna be. Yeah, I think it's gonna be interesting for a while. - Okay. Candyman, I think, is going for SP Candyman, says, "What are some of the opportunities to build tools that support growth in the prediction market space, specifically opportunities not requiring direct CFTC regulation." I mean, there's a lot of people building a lot of stuff around prediction markets right now, any advice for builders out there SP? - Yeah, I mean, I would, I would just look at the stuff that's been popular in the adjacent industries like sports betting. There's obviously been, you know, companies and tools and, you know, your site as one of them. That's, that's been very successful. Just sort of building off of, you know, content, tools, you know, odds jammed, sold for like, ton of money, like the versions of that, like stuff that's repeatable. I think the other thing that's interesting, which we, you know, this podcast has been entirely focused on sports, but like all these markets that are non-sports are also like new and untapped. And so I think some of those will grow, some of those will not grow, but getting in early-ish on something like that and sort of building like a sports lay, like the sports type of tools, which you might be familiar with into those other, you know, markets, I think there's, there's a lot of opportunity there if you're creating. - I know, it's good. Every time I go on these sites, I look at like the non-sports one, it like blows my mind like, what will the temperature be in Chicago on Wednesday at 3 p.m. and stuff like that? It's so wild, I mean, yeah. Okay, Dan, he has a question for Henry. He says, "Henry, if you weren't at NoVig, how would you be attacking the open field in pms right now?" I'm not sure exactly what he means by open field, but perhaps you do Henry. - I think he means how would you just be trying to win? - Yeah. - Well, I would say, you know, that again, there's a million approaches you could take and I've talked about it, it depends on your skill set and kind of where you want to optimize. One thing we haven't even really touched yet, S.P. Managlanci reference to it, RFQs, Kurt, which means request for quote, this is a non-order book system that exists on prediction markets whereby you put together, you send out a signal to all the market makers. I'd like you to make a number on this particular market or combination of markets. You get quotes back, you can choose whether or not you accept them. It's currently only being used for parlays, really. I think most people conceptualize it as a way to deliver parlays because parlays don't really work on order books. My expectation is that it's going to become a more and more popular mechanism that the obscurity of it really suits some of the smaller markets that we were talking about, you know, player props, you know, smaller leagues, etc. And it also kind of conforms to a lot of classic sports book type, UI/UX. And so I think learning the ins and outs of how those systems work, those RFQ systems and what can be done with them, there's a lot of green fields there. And that's where I would start. Yeah, I totally meant to bring up RFQs because this is when we were talking about how can prediction markets ensure they compete with sports books in states where there are both clearly recreational players want to make parlays, they want to make parlays during the game, they want to make SGPs, they want to try to turn 10 into a million this system that Henry is talking about, requests for quote, it fascinates me because you guys have probably seen me like we run the numbers when Port Neuoy or whatever these other guys tweet their parlays. I mean, we're looking at negative 30. We expect the people to return negative 30, negative 40. Sometimes negative 50 or more percent on these parlays and SGPs that these books are printing. And so there is so much room to undercut. I could give you a way better price on Port Neuoy's parlay than you're getting right now and still make a ton of money and still expect to win 10% or 15%. And that's why that market has been like so interesting to me. So yeah, I'm glad to hear you say that because I find that market fasting at all. Last question I think is a joke, but EGZ says, how do prediction markets make the hot dog stand business easier? I have to get an insider joke here for the risk takers podcast SP. How do prediction markets make the hot dog stand business easier? SP. Well, I'll give the context on the joke, but to lead into this, I am curious like on the comment that Nigel made about public perception and not mattering to the Supreme Court. I am curious like what Nigel you'd be thinking or what you would be doing differently if you were in the leaders of Calgary Polymarkets. I'll give you a second to think about that and I'll just give the context on the joke. So the joke is around, when these predicts your markets are coming out and they were arguing, these are financial instruments. These are hedging products. They gave the example of like, I think it was the actual example is something like a bar in Green Bay, Wisconsin, wants to hedge their financial risks to the game. And so I've taken that to the most extreme degree and pretended I'm a hot dog then who is hedging out of my 12 leg parlay. So that's the joke. So they're intertwined now with the introduction of prediction markets. To better off to end on your question to Nigel, if you were in charge of Calgary Poly, what would you be doing differently if anything right now? You know what? So first thing I say, I think they've done the Miz and Jal. There's some things they've done that you're incredible. They have built, you know, you might quilt or evaluation, but these are companies worth tens of billions of dollars. And to do that from zero and quite a short period of time, that's incredible. And so they deserve all that success. I know how hard it is to build a business and what they've done is incredible. I'd say the certain areas that, and the other thing that I don't criticize them for, they've very aggressive approach legally. I think they have to, right? I don't think that's not a, you don't have a choice. You can't just let a state try and roll you over if you believe you're federally mandated. So that I don't criticize them for. I also think they need to be super aggressive. Like they, you know, this is a big market. You're going to have to go for it. You know, billions are going to be put into a competitor. So you don't really have the option of just sort of setting back and going, no, we're just going to build a good business. You're going to become roadkill. So I don't criticize them for any of that. The two that I would criticize them for, one, is their marketing and much more calcium than polymarket. But I just think it doesn't necessarily help. Like this, the sort of person who's going to come in and bat you because they think you can make rent money from it is not a high value customer, right? And so it's known by not doing it. You're not really losing anything. This is a person that comes in. In fact, it reminds me of skills, skills run, very similar advertising. You only have to look at skills, share price and know how well that work. And it didn't. It's a terrible customer and it's on ethical. I think they have corrected a lot of that. But you still see it from time to time. And then the second thing is they need to work together. Like this is insane. Like they can compete like hell for market share. But on the regulatory side, they need to stop the kind of, the sort of this, night thing. What is it? The correlation for, you know, production markets that doesn't include polymarkets. That is so childish and it probably makes them all feel good and they beat their chast and I'm like, yeah, and you will beat your chast the day that, you know, the, the spring court shut you down because you as an industry just can't grow up. And so that would be my big one as like, look, you can hit them all you want. Like I work at Draft King's, like I work with them for years. We were not friends, but like we knew we had a shared interest. So that's a big one. And you know, and I think if we go back and you're okay, where did we all go wrong? That could be a big factor and where this industry went. Yeah. I mean, for people who don't remember, it was, I don't want to say bitter and maybe I don't think it was bitter between Nigel and Jason, but it was bitter. I know like the Draft King's people were like considered fans who like arch rivaled. However, when shit hit the fan, they came together and Jason and Nigel went together. Yeah, state by state. We had joined lobbyists. We went, I went up to Albany with just and we lobbied. And when you see what's happened, this industry where the setting up institutions, which is everyone part from Polymark, it's just like, this is stupid. This is really, really stupid because what the other thing that we discovered was being trying to like the industry doesn't think Polymark and Calishe, they every time in this report, it'll be Polymark, where it was actually in Calishe, RL, they're not going to learn. And so whenever you, these, whenever Calishe tries to say, oh, that's the stuff that goes on in Polymark, it doesn't matter. No one cares. And so they have to kind of figure out how to work together. Otherwise, I just think it's going to be bad for the entire industry. All right. Well, I really appreciate the time, guys. I've learned a ton. Hopefully all you guys out there in the audience learned a ton as well. Henry, tell the people where they can find you, where they can bet against you, anything else you want to let the people know about. You can install the Novig app on your phone and you can find me on Twitter. I'm Big Buck Hunter on everything. You can message me on Telegram, Discord, whatever you want. And inside prediction markets every Wednesday, directly competing with SP's podcast. You know, it's like Traffking's Fandall. We're going to kill each other one. All right. SP, I see me don't want to be found. But if you do want to be found, tell the people where they can find you. Twitter handle sports underscore underscore PR OJ. And then the risk takers podcast. I, it's amicable. I'll be the Nigel and, uh, and be amicable with the podcast. Perfect. I tell you know, he's winning the fight by the way. Perfect. And Nigel tell the people what what you're working on. They can find it. Yeah. So I'm Nigel Echoes on Twitter. And then most relevant to here, uh, check out batdecks.com, which is a, uh, an international sports, uh, batting student stroke prediction market. All right. Perfect. Really, really appreciate the time. Guys, good luck with everything going forward for Henry for Nigel for SP for everyone behind the scenes at ETR. I am Adam. Good luck. Everybody.