How quickly can we stop global warming?

You're very welcome to Climate Change for Beginners. I'm Dr. Kiron O'Carol. On today's podcast, we're going to answer the question, how quickly can we stop global warming? One of the biggest obstacles to avoiding global climate breakdown is that so many people think there's nothing we can do about it. They've been told that temperatures will keep rising for decades to come, no matter how many solar panels replace oil derricks or how many meat eaters go vegetarian. No wonder some people think we're doomed. But climate science doesn't say this. On the contrary, the best climate science you've probably never heard of suggests that humanity can still limit the damage to just a fraction of the worst projections, if governments, businesses, and all of us take strong action starting immediately. The science I'm referring to is included in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent report issued in August 2021. But first, some context. For many years, the scientific rule of thumb was that a sizeable amount of temperature rise was indeed locked into the Earth's climate system. Scientists believed and told policymakers and journalists who then told the public that even if humanity hypothetically halted all trapping heat emissions overnight, carbon dioxide's long lifetime in the atmosphere combined with the sluggish thermal properties of the oceans would nevertheless keep global surface temperatures rising for 30 to 40 more years. Since shifting to a zero carbon global economy would take at least a decade or two, temperatures were therefore bound to keep rising for at least another half century. But guided by subsequent research, scientists dramatically revised that lag estimate down to as little as three to five years. The updated finding is included in the IPCC's Six Assessment Report, working group one that made headlines in August 2021. Indeed, it underlies the widely now used concept of a carbon budget. It allows us to specify, with some uncertainty range, the maximum amount of carbon that we can still burn if we are to keep global surface warming below the critical level of 1.5°C. Most importantly, it tells us that if humanity slashes emissions to zero, global temperatures will stop rising almost immediately. So why isn't this reason for some cautious optimism more widely known? There's plenty of blame to go around, scientists aren't always the best natural communicators, journalists and scientists typically don't speak the same language, and lots gets lost in translation. Added to that, the concentrated headwind of a fossil fuel industry funded disinformation campaign, and you have the makings of a substantial breakdown in communication. That's a shame, because this revised timeline implies a paradigm shift in how humanity can respond to the climate emergency. The implications fall into three categories, the three piece of psychology, politics, and policies. Psychology is arguably the most important. For a mix possible, the rest. Knowing that global temperature rise can be stopped almost immediately means that humanity is not doomed after all. We can still save our civilization, at least most of it, if we take rapid, forceful action immediately. This knowledge can banish the sense of inevitability that paralyzes some people, and instead inspire them towards greater resolve and activity. The psychological shift can in turn transform the politics of climate change, for it can entice more people to join the fight, or to stay in the fight longer, rather than coming to despair. Newcomers to climate action might begin by eating less meat or ditching the gas guzzler for an electric vehicle. Another key step, the climate scientists, Catherine Heyho, urges, is for people simply to talk more about climate change with family, friends, and co-workers, because you can't solve a problem if you don't even talk about it. Most important though, politics must be committed. Many individuals are doing what they can, the naturalist David Attenborough has said, but real success can only come if there is a change in our societies, in our economics, and in our politics. That will only happen if more people march, vote, take direct action, and pressurize governments and corporations to favor climate protection over climate destruction. For example, the world spent an estimated $5.9 trillion in 2020 subsidising fossil fuels, the main driver of global warming. US tech players alone subsidize oil and gas drilling by $660 billion a year. This makes fossil fuels artificially cheaper, and it tilts the economic playing field so lopsided that it hardly matters how many individuals decide to take the train rather than fly. Getting the politics of climate change can change the policies used to fight it. Measures that once seemed politically impossible, such as the Green New Deal, can suddenly be confleasable, as some lawmakers get voted out and others get voted in, and even recalculate the law makers, still in power begin to recalculate the costs of blocking action differently. Where this all matters the most is in highly climate vulnerable communities, especially in the global south. Countless people in these communities have been suffering climate disasters for decades already, because their communities tend to be more exposed to climate impacts and have less financial capacity to protect themselves. For these people, limiting global temperature rise to 5.1 degrees Celsius or lower is not a scientific abstraction, but a matter of life and death. Muhammad Nasid, the former president of the Maldives, said this at COP26, last November 2021. The fact that 30 years or more of rising temperatures is not necessary locked in is tremendously empowering, but is not a silver bullet. Some impacts are already irreversible, especially ice sheet melting and sea level rise. Nevertheless, the latest climate science suggests that COP26's goal of keeping 1.5 degrees Celsius alive is technically possible, but humanity must phase out fossil fuels rapidly and slash emissions in half by 2030. If we do that, we might still preserve a livable planet for all those who deserve it, which is everyone. That's it for today. Please subscribe to Climate Change for Beginners, and you can contact me on Twitter @climatecuron. That's C-I-A-R-A-N. Thanks for listening.