How Many Guys Have a Shot This Week? U.S. Open Preview With Jason Sobel.

Hello friends and welcome to this golf program unlike any other. Oh yes my friends this is fair away. A golf program on the Ringer podcast network and on Netflix I am your starter Joe House joined as is our way by my incomparable accomplice our PGA tour boots on the ground. My birdie buddies my par saving pals my eagle enthusiasts we are very pleased today to have real boots on the ground Jason Sobel from serious XM and bet MGM is joining us as well as the program evolved here today because he is physically up in South Hampton he's going to give us the the literal report from the ground but they'll start off as a two ball it's the Nate Doggani and this is our Wednesday final preparation forecast for this incredible us open staring us right in the face the pegs are on the ground we'll start off as two it will soon be three my birdie buddies off we go Nate Dogg how's your how's your win sheer yeah I mean it's I think it's the story house I loved our time with the new member of the writer cup team Justin hey it only took what that decade I mean the women have been using Justin Ray our buddy Justin Ray for for quite a while now at least three previous writer cups he's been on the US side I believe I'm already team fureck I mean what took so long to make this happen we have known from the beginning that this guy understands statistics not just statistics but he can tell the difference between correlation and causation there's lots of things that correlate with rainfall in Burma but they don't all cause it the and and he is a guy who can help us it up I'm so proud of him and I'm so happy for team the real thrill thrilled we he can only be so lucky as to be in the the winning US room and and karaoke he had to choose something else because he did hypnotize by biggie smalls at the women's last triumph yeah I'll have to come up with his own song for the men but uh speaking of race a bird coming our way coming his way from us for sure now we're gonna sit and drink it with them yeah that's the plan speaking of rain in Burma let's talk about the weather because I think as we sit here at these late stages of of the preparation for the tournament getting underway it seems the forecast is tightening up you know we're inside of 48 hours here and it does seem like there's going to be pronounced wind especially on Thursday and you know some of the sentiment that we're hearing will get it from sobel as well as that there might be moments Thursday afternoon where they have to stop this golf tournament because the wind will be so strong that they can't the ball will not be able to remain in place in in view of the gale force winds yeah not on these greens I mean it looks like it's going to blow steady 10 in the morning with gusts up to 20 but by the time 1 2 3 pm roll around it's going to be blown 20 with gusts in the 40s and I think that that you know I sometimes think we over rotate on the weather because it never to your point is as predictable as we think it's going to be but I think this could separate the field certainly as you think about first round leader plays but just broadly speaking because the margin for air out here is so small and because nobody ever wins the US open unless they're tiger woods by five shots that this is like a two or three shot potential swing if the weather forecast holds like this and that means that for guys like young God are up Rory Ludwig Tommy Fleetwood Scotty Sheffler they've got an advantage over guys like morning wave that's morning or that's pre lunchtime those guys there in the morning they go I mean came young goes at 7 30 in the morning he's going to be off the course before this thing starts whipping 40 guys who are just going to be starting Bryson Matt Fitzpatrick JT John Rom Zander Shoffley Rose Spieth those guys so it really makes sense to take a gander at the T times and and the draw because as much as Scotty said you know now draws don't matter T times don't matter well that's easy for him to say he's got a Thursday morning T time at 8 14 am it's these guys who are going to be staring down the barrel of a wind whipping in the face and we have seen in these practice rounds the impact that it can have there's some holes out there Michael Kim on his social profile give us some great insight into a few crazy job by Michael Kim yeah and how the prevailing wins are going to make it impossible to hold the green on on that seventh hole for example right yeah 7 and 11 are especially susceptible and you know part of what has been a storyline coming in is how is the USGA prepared to deliver this this golf course what version of this golf course are we going to get knowing anticipating this wind phenomena yeah the only way to really protect the the the course is with with water and speaking of Michael Kim he described you know at least his Monday round that that there was there was a level of receptivity that the greens were tiny bit spongy underfoot now part of the reminder as we do our final preparation here is that these greens are poa there are combination of poe with some some bent grass built in so that also there that the reason that grass is is a west coast primary you see a mainly on course is street from my house yeah that's exactly right yeah that's right and I mean I feel super fortunate we have it at my little club here in the Washington DC area as well but it can get bumpy as the day goes on and you know they'll they'll roll in the morning but if the goal is to protect the golf course through the cut you know through Thursday Friday so we can get the cut hopefully accomplished by Friday they're going to wet them down this weather then then they just can't have greens that are 12 they can't be 12 they have to be I don't know what 10 and a half under 11 potentially right just to keep them alive they they they normally go out and wet them at two o'clock every day and right Rory spoke fairly eloquently in his press or about how when he first heard about it didn't make sense but the sort of agronomy of it makes more sense for him now and it feels like it's actually a way to keep the splits even so I think that's what they're going to do and you know in the aggregate I'm less thinking that they're going to bake out the way that the way that maybe they did you know that there was some real changes in the way that the course seemed to play in the PGA on Friday for example yeah so it for sure the weather can impact the golf course and mess with the waves but I really think that it's it's about the wind and I also think just broadly speaking house looking at the field listening to the field and stepping back and remembering that we're at Shinnecock for crying out loud I feel like I've overthought this I think there's only nine guys who can win this golf tournament okay and I'll be thrilled to be wrong because I like when we get the new guy but I really think it's Scotty it's Rory it's Rom it's Xander it's Fleetwood it's Fitzpatrick it's Cam Young it's Sam Burns and God forbid he's show up with his A game it could be Bryson because he's one two before if you want to cross him off your list the way that house does that's fine but I'm just telling you guys who I think right now have the mental and physical ability to win on this golf course that's that's the crew yeah I just you sort of forget I have three guys as potential outliers that I'll I'll add to that I don't want to agree in any way you think you think Jason guys I'm patty is one of those three guys yeah because of his success at this golf course and his his scrambling is unmatched right I have Russell Henley as a Jason to that group because number one on tour in driving accuracy number one on tour Nathan Hubbard in scrambling how about that Russell Henley and you know his we've seen over the last two years his game just just rise up his last two he has a a a 10th at Oakmont and a 7th at Pinehurst on his resume at the US open so for sure he can get around at the US open so both read and Henley and then I think it's worth having something to reflect Chris Goddard up as a guy that can deal with with the weather we talked about just go back to how he performed in Scotland when he won when he really made his his giant leap forward as a professional golfer and one you know a genuinely elevated event he stared down Rory over the last three or four holes and did what he needed to do to win that golf tournament a lot of wind in Hawaii too yeah well sure a great point yes so Goddard also just as a guy that that you know to keep keep an eye on but I don't in any way shape or form have really a different opinion around now the the only one that feels like a wild card that we haven't said in that group thus far we're up to 12 is Brooksy and let's talk about you know, the press conference today, he claims that there was a significant improvement day over day in terms of the ulnar nerve in, I guess it was in the left hand. Yeah. And that's what they pinpointed as being the culprit. And he had experienced experiencing some numbness over the weekend. I will tell you that I went on radio this morning with the fine, fine, fine folks at sports fan 590 Toronto Canada. Yes. And I, you know, when we were talking about the US Open and Brooks, they immediately jumped in and said that withdrawal was as much about whatever he was experiencing with his hand as the impulse to GTFO to just get the F out of there because it was, it was fairly miserable as the way the guy described the conditions. So yeah, even more kudos, right, if you're not 100% prepared to go slog, if you're coming in as, you know, the guy that's the defending champion of Shinnecock that and you're not 100% then hit the eject and they think there might have been a little bit of that as part of the reason that Brooks might have with John, but that's all fine. It's possible. I just don't want to bet at the most impossible golf course in this environment with as much parity outside of the elevated tiers of Scotty and to a slightly lesser extent rory at this point. I don't want to go after a guy who's got any kind of problem feeling his fingers because it's going to be nerve wracking enough out there and you can't really Brooks hasn't been right. It's been a couple years since since that PGA and so I don't I don't love it. But it's having his best putting performance. Yeah, but Toronto. But look, as we look down the board, that means we're crossing off a few notables. It means we're crossing off Ludwig and I think you and I both think he has all of the physical talent to do this. I think that the first half of this year has us sitting here with just some questions mentally about whether or not he is there and is ready. He hasn't won this year. He's lost a couple of tournaments right in front of us that he had in his hands. It hasn't felt like he's ready to step into this slog and do it. Do I do I put words in your mouth? Me? No. Well, why would you put on Ludwig? What have we seen out of him that would make you feel confident? I mean, the challenge of this place is par. Who could save par from the most challenging kinds of situations, the combination of being in the wrong place, feeling uncomfortable because of whatever's happening with the win and also getting over immediately the injustice of what has been falling you because you're going to have a lot of these moments at Shinnecock where you hit a shot that you're like, okay, I did the right thing here and then an injustice befalls you because you've headed to a portion of the green and the ball rolls in some manner. The win pushes it in a way you didn't anticipate. Okay, so you have to bounce back immediately. You have to have the fortitude to respond to that injustice right away and on top of that you have to have the A plus plus plus plus short game. Now I am interjecting very quickly that I did after our podcast with Justin Ray. Make sure that I had some exposure to Camp Smith. Okay. Camp Smith is available. Top one is still at the Fandals Sportsbook at plus 430. I know. And as one, I really you have to have some that's why we called it out. Order one odds for this guy at top 20. I agree. The majesty and and you know, the whole thing with him will be accuracy off the tee. But to complete the thought on Ludwig, I'll just live bet him if it if he shows up and he's smashing the ball and he feels great and then just be prepared to lose it on the back nine on Sunday because that's that's how it goes down but I'm fine with that. Right. Yeah. I think so. The only other one who's sitting out there and and will ask Sobel when he joins us shortly is Wyndham Clark who was first around the greens the other day. The game seems like it's back. He's one here before some questions because the iron play has not been great. But let's see what Sobel has to say house. Yeah. Well, it's welcome in Jason Sobel. Serious XM. He is an ambassador for bet MGM. And you know, we all get along. We're fandall guys over here. But that doesn't mean that we can't all get along. He is literally our boots on the ground coming to us from South Hampton, New York at the Marley's. You're on a show. Of course. I got off the show. I get people driving me. So I don't do shuttles. Okay. That's not, you know, it's all the. He's not doing it. That's on me. Maybe the greatest digs I've ever had for major championship. If I can lift this up, let me see if I can show you. Oh, there's that. What is if I had? I don't know how I can do this. I do hit the lottery. That is my background. But I don't know who hit the lottery expense. Good lord. Yeah. Yeah. Big deal. It's a $49 night hotel. It's okay. Sobel. So we have we're all teed up. We have a whole bunch of things that we want to throw at you. And we didn't get around to Rory's comments about Track 1, Track 2 and the L and the glorified KFT. Uh, the door. Let's try. He thinks the track too is going to be. We'll get to there in a moment, but the lead item and we're interested in your take on this to us seems to be the weather. And it seems to be the weather forecast, especially with these potential GFW wins on Thursday. Are you hearing the same thing that we're hearing? You're in. I guess. It's going to be custom. 40, 45 miles an hour by midday on Thursday and throughout all of Thursday afternoon. I don't know how you set up the golf course to handle the wins. You don't have to delay play on Thursday. So, you have to soften up the greens a little bit. I know people don't like hearing that. They want fast greens. The US open. It's got to be hard. If the greens are that fast, the balls don't stay on the green. So you can't play golf. And so they've got a water and they've got to soften them up a little bit. But again, if you do it too much, then by Friday, the winds die down a little bit. They're like, "Oh, I run shooting 66 out here, which I don't think is going to happen anyway." But you don't want to make it too easy. It's a very fine line, very delicate balance. I don't envy the USGDA officials that are setting up the golf course right now. Does it change the way you think about first-round leader? Does it mean that you cross off guys in the afternoon like a zander or a brison in favor of a guy in the morning like Scotty or Rory? Yes. That's exactly what I've done so far. I'm looking only at morning guys. I had a couple guys picked out before the week started, before the two times came out today. They're all afternoon guys. I'm scratching them out with an asterisk here. That's exactly what I said, which was, if the wind blows so hard that they've got to lay play, let's say, one o'clock, two o'clock, Thursday afternoon. Then the afternoon guys get to come out and play a cum golf course on Friday morning. All of a sudden that changes things and that tilts the tables in their favor. That's a definite possibility. The answer is yes, maybe I don't know. Sure. As usual, well, you've been on a heater with the first round leader. Another one, another notch on the belt last week with Saeed Tigala, who tied for first round lead. Give us some of your early thoughts on that one before we move on because we can't just say first round leader. I switched to. In my piece with Ben and Jim, I wrote about Victor Hovland and Jordan Speedhu. They sort of fit my usual narrative, which is guys that have a lot of upside for first round leader plays, but also players. I don't really trust for four round bets. Victor Hovland's guy, it wasn't even on my radar going into last week, finished in third. I'm like, I don't know what to do with them. Maybe he keeps it going for one round. I don't think he's going to play well for four, but maybe for one round. And Jordan Speedhu is the ultimate single round guy right now because if he gets it all together, he can shoot a low score any given day or it could be 78 and he could be slammed the truck by Friday afternoon. I have absolutely no idea on Jordan Speedhu. He's a guy that I like to invest in in those markets. That's said, both of those guys playing the afternoon, I'm looking at morning players and the three I wound up with. Tommy Flea would tend to play really well in opening rounds and plays well at Shinnocock at a 63 year, which is like a 53 anywhere else when we're here in 2018. Chris Godderup, who's top 10 on the PGA toward round one scoring average this year and Nick Taylor, who's third in round one scoring average this year, got it keeps it in place. So that's kind of where I'm looking up up and down the board for the top tier and the mid tier to the to the triple digit range with Taylor for my first round leader, please. I like it because I just had a conversation with Nate about Godderup in particular and obviously Fleetwood's work here goes without question. Although we were reminded, Tommy Flea would hasn't been great in the US open for a little while. A slew of mishcuts, but maybe where his game is right now and coming back to this place, hopefully that channels some some some good reminiscent says, right? I hope so and look Tommy's been sort of hot and cold this year. We saw in contention the last couple of weeks and doesn't get it done the usual Tommy thing, which is I'm really good until I need to step on the gas pedal and go get these guys in front of me and he winds up never doing it or very rarely doing it. So I still think he's going to play well. I love the fact that around the greens, which is really a specialty to think of Tommy Flea would you think of a guy who's known for his iron play, but he was number one in Stroke's game to round the greens going through last week's RBC Canadian Open. I think he dropped about four spots last week, but still he's been very good with the wedges around the green. I think that's going to be a big stat this week. We don't often look at that. Some weeks we go to a first shot golf course. Hey, you've got to drive it long and straight. If you don't, you're not going to be in the mix. A lot of times I would say 70, 75% of the time, strokes can approach. It's going to be iron playing. That could be what separates the contenders and the pretenders this week. Then sometimes we say, OK, it's going to be 30 under. It's a punting contest. Whoever makes the most parties is going to win. This is one of those rare times. I'm actually looking at stroke skiing around the greens and saying, you've got to get up and down. You've got to be able-- you're going to miss greens. You've got to be able to hit it to six feet and make your butts and get up and down unscathed more often than not. And so Tommy's got to do that. Yeah, it's a Ben Griff in the other night called it like a British open, except with Pinehurst greens. And that's sort of what we thought about it. Pinehurst too was trying to get up and down. I think back to Oakmont last year, sobs. And it felt like the way that course was set up and just the course itself sort of opened the potential contender list to broader than just the first 10 guys or so on the board. And sure enough, JJ Spawn sort of walked through it. But you had some other guys that day who were in competition who felt like had a chance. Man, I step back and I look at what the players are saying as they come off this course. And I start to think that maybe this one is more set up for the best guys in the world and that we're really going to separate. Am I wrong about that? Did you see anything on the ground that makes you feel like somebody who's 30th in the world has a chance this week in a way that maybe back in 2018 or 2019 when it was Brooks and the bombers, they didn't. I actually do date. I see it the other way. I think the play field is leveled a little bit this week. And I'll tell you why. And to explain this week, I need to go back over the last decade or so. Last year at Oakmont doesn't really fit the narrative here. But 2020, for example, is a great instance of this where you guys understand this. But a lot of the viewers and listeners will know that at Wingfoot, OK, so we've narrowed the fairways so much. OK, it's US Open. We have really tough fairways to hit. You think beforehand, OK, it's going to be the accurate guys, the precision players who have an advantage. What happened was they were so narrow that everyone missed the fairways. We found that being 330 in the rough is a lot better than being 280 in the rough. And so Bryson went out and won that one by 5 or 6 that week because he was the longest hitter. What we have this week is fairways is that average about 41 yards in width and some are as much as 60 yards across. I think what we're going to see is precision comes back into play a little bit because guys just like a Russell Handley, a Colin Moore, a Cowah, JJ spawn that aren't the biggest hitters, but hit more than their share of fairways, they're going to be in the fairway a lot this week. Now the guy's like a Bryson, guys who spray it, hit the long line, spray it. If you are in the rough, it can be more difficult. Wind up is a great one. Who else would I think enough? Sam Burns has been spraying it a little bit, even though he's playing well. I can't smithle spray it in a heartbeat. Cam Smith is a guy that I look at the short game. I love it, but off the tee, it's all over the place. That said, we all kind of know those guys. That said, and Rory said this after going on a scouting mission a few weeks ago, he said it memorial where, if you hit it in the fairway, you're going to be in good shape. And it's going to be more frequently than you hit it in the fairway. But if you miss, you're in really bad shape. It's going to have to be a bigger miss. But when you do, you're going to be in worse shape. I think that levels the playing field a little bit. And so I'm looking at guys. I mean, we can talk long shots. But I think there's a bunch of guys in the triple digit range who are live this week. Wow. OK. Well, we'll get there in a minute. You mentioned Rory. He is now must see TV for his press conferences the week of majors. It's maybe been that way for a little while. But he really is in the 0F's given mode. And today's presser fit that bill certainly. It didn't seem like he had to talk about the PGA tour in this context or talk about the way that the PGA tour is reimagining itself, repositioning itself, setting it up as a media property, property going forward and going to market for new media rights here in the next handful of years. But by golly, he took the opportunity to be in front of a microphone in a camera and talk about it. What did you make of Rory's assessment that the track two events are essentially glorified corn fairy tour events? And if you're not a sponsor that's willing to pony up 30 million bucks, then who'll want to you? Because you are going to be stuck in this track two purgatory, not catching much interest or eyes. What do you make of all of this? Well, first of all, House. I don't know why Rory feels the need to-- I get it. He's asked a question. He's answering the question. It's the de-gaff mode. It's, hey, you know what? I'm just going to be opening it on. It's not really care anymore. That said, it's a major championship. You're focused on trying to-- what, like, don't-- you don't need to dive all the way in. You can just dip a toe into it and say, ah, I don't know. We'll see. They're going to announce it the next week. I'm looking forward to hearing what it is, just like you guys. And fairness, I think he was defending the position of the Canadian Open. He was trying to speak positively about the Canadian Open that and just say that he hopes it doesn't get relegated. But in the-- He's a national Open. Yeah. But in the course of defending Canada, it required him to poop all over Track 2. And that is your point, so. I get-- I mean, this is what it's going to be. We've known this for a long time now. It's going to be the haves and have-nots, the A-listers, the B-listers. What I hope is that when Brian Roleps speaks next week of the Travelers Championship, there isn't some rule. And we've heard rumors about this that Scotty Sheffler won't be able to play the CJ Cup Byron Nelst, or whatever it's called, moving forward. Because he's a Track 1 guy and not a Track 2 guy. And worry won't be allowed to go to Canada, where he's won a couple of times. I hope that's not the case. That if you're a superstar player, and you said, whether it's-- that's my hometown, I like that course. I just-- I feel like playing this week, you should be able to do whatever you want to do. If you want to go play those events, you're more than welcome to go play. But yeah, look, it's all about money. If you're a big time event, and your sponsor says, we want to pony up all the money to get into that Track 1, the PGA tour. You know what they're going to do? They're going to go, thank you very much. Put it right here. OK, we got it. OK, you're over here now. We're going to put you on this list. You guys know you're good. OK, we're going to put you on this list. And you're going to get the best players if you put in the most money. I don't know if there's a more democratic system than that. I don't know if there's a better format for the PGA tour. I've gone back and forth on this, guys, for years we had. All right, so it's whatever week it is. It's the week of the cognizant classic. And we've got four of the top 10. And then the next week is the Val Spar Championship. We've got five of the top 10. And every week was pretty good. There weren't B-list events, but they weren't all A-list events. There weren't as many of them. Is it better this way? Maybe? I don't know. I'd also like to see-- and I don't know if we're going to get this. And I'm waiting to hear-- but in season and immediate promotion and relegation. I think that's really important. I don't want to see a guy win. Whoever it is, Ricky Castillo wins in Puerto Rico. And then, hey, next year you might be able to get into the track one event. It's not like it's immediate. Like, hey, congratulations. You're going to be able to move into that upper track. And by the same token, pick a guy who's not playing well. Victor Hovland, until last week. Sorry, Vic. You haven't played that well this year. You played 15 events. You have zero top 10s. You're going to be playing in the 3M open and Minnesota in a few weeks because that's the one you can get into. You can't get into the other ones. Well, well, that, I think, is at the core of why Rory made the KFT comment and ultimately said, you know, it didn't use to be that bad. After all of this, Righam, Righam and Roll, we've been through. Here's Rory being like, maybe we should have just kept it the way it was. But I think you made the right point. I mean, one is, are they going to allow the top guys a few get out of jail free card opportunities to play in the track two events, which from a sponsor perspective, you actually want because it means that some of those guys are going to show up and you have a chance of having some better players. But then the other one, as you said, is are we going to have some promotion or not because right now, unless you win three times on the Corn Ferry Tour, you know, we knew Scotty Schaeffler was coming. He was the best player. He kicked everybody's ass on the KFT, but we had to wait a whole year to see him. And so I think that's the question that was underneath the surface of Rory's comments. And that if your sponsor setting up potentially, you know, multimillion dollar per se, by the way, these per se are going to be a lot more than the KFT. So if you're putting up that money, I think you may want these events to mean something to the people who are paying attention to the big tour. And those are two ways to make sure that we can week out. It matters as opposed to just how somebody performed the whole season. So those were very insightful comments that Rory immediately walks himself back from by being like, you know, actually, I'm not in the room. I have the loudest voice on the PGA tour. But, you know, I'm not in the room, so maybe it's just speculating. Well, I was wondering, so, well, if that was, you know, they haven't asked for my opinion. So I'm just telling you the way I see it. If there was a little bit of a snark coming out of that, do you think that was part of the motivation? No, look, he's excused himself from that board and being in that room. So I don't know why he would complain about not being in the room. And here's my opinion on it. That said, just look, I will never criticize a player for being open and honest and outspoken. We want it. That's what we want from players. That's exactly what we want. We don't want guys going, well, here's the company line. And I will see what happens. That said, if I were advising Roy McRoy, I would have told him to say exactly that. They're going to ask you about the schedule. They're going to ask you what you think. Just leave it alone. You don't need it this week. Move on to, you know, hey, we're playing the US Open. We'll figure out next week. Next week's news. It's exactly right. I love that he cares about that tournament enough to advocate for it. And it sucks that the way it's going to get clipped up in the social media sphere is going to be him busting on, you know, corn fairy tour players. Because that's not actually what he was doing. If anything, he was advocating for an event that matters to him. Yeah. I also need to point out that two of the best stories we've had this year, at least winner stories on the PGA tour have come at these track two events, whatever we're going to call them. In Gary Woodland and Houston and Bud Culley last week in Canada. So you can try to man you factor a tour that has Scotty Sheffler and Rory McAvoy going head to head on the back nine on a Sunday afternoon. First of all, that doesn't happen. Go look at the winners of the signature events this year. And there's a bunch of Christopher Rattens and JT Postons out there. Jacob Bridget. A whole lot of Scotty and Rory. I mean, until you want to make these things three players in the signature events, you just can't manufacture it. And secondly, fans are going to flock to the best story, not just necessarily the biggest names. And if the best stories are coming from the track two events, the PGA tour might find that they need to figure some things out moving forward. If the Texas children's Houston Open and the RBC Canadian Open get better numbers on a Sunday afternoon, then the memorial tournament, maybe we're doing something wrong. Well, and the ratings came out this afternoon and they were flat year over year, which is saying something because they were head head with the World Cup. And so it's the first time that the ratings haven't, but I think they're still up 11% plus year over year. So things are going pretty well, but you're right. Look, the foundational challenge that this tour has is how to tell the story of 140 guys. Because they have to be prepared to tell the story of 140 guys. Because it's showing us that any given week, one of 140 guys can actually win a golf tournament. So they're doing a much better job. I think their social media profiles are doing well, the way that they told the story of Jake Napp today and his situation, very impressive sort of in-depth things for guys outside the top 10. It's still hard to tell the story of number 140. Well, unless number 140 tells the story through his play and reveals himself, like what did anybody in the American or Canadian or North American sporting public know about Bud Cully until the back nine on Sunday up in Toronto. Last week, we will have plenty of time to wax philosophic around the announcements next week that we're anticipating. Hey, hey, my birdie buddies, fairway rolling is presented by Vanduul, golf fans. The PGA season is in full swing as the world's best navigate these hallowed fairways. Vanduul is here to bring you closer to every career defining moment. This weekend coming up, nothing but career defining moments. Vanduul's round betting markets let you join the whole by-hole action like round leader, birdie counts finishing position and more. No need to wait until Sunday for a big win. If you have a perspective on what you think the weather is going to do by Gully, jump into these round by round markets, get some round by round head to heads. Even whole by-hole, do you think you know how it's all going to go down? Come on, your top 10 finishers into a parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. We are all in favor of Matt Fitzpatrick this week up at Chinatoc. There's a lot of love for Russell. Henley this week, we could see Terell Hatton do great things who has very quietly assembled a nice US open resume in New York's own Native Sun Cam Young, who we've heard a lot from this season. Definitely a guy that could grab a top 10 on that New York soil. So are you ready to play your game? Visit Vanduul.com/rollin to download Vanduul. That's Vanduul.com/rolin to bet the PGA tour with America's number one sports book. Every swing could be a winner with Vandu, an official partner of the PGA. Quick disclaimer, you must be 21 plus in select states or 18 plus in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gammon problem call 1-800-Gamber or if you are in Connecticut call 1-88-789-77-77 or visit ccpg.org/chat. But gentlemen, we have a US open staring us here at the face and not just any old US open. We're at Chinatoc for Christ's sake. Can we talk about who's going to uh farewell with this golf tournament? Who might win this golf tournament? Who's going to make us some money? All right, so well you teed this up beautifully. We're going to kick it right to you. You're in the long shot markets for reasons that I'm still a tiny bit. Well, let's hear you make the case. Let's hear some of these long shots and then we'll take you from there. Okay, and to be fair, my favorite play is not a long shot. My favorite play is coming from the top here. I've got a few mid-tier plays but I would not be shot. A month after Aaron Rye wanted an Aronamink where we had players telling us, "Man, if you don't fly at 310 in the air, you're not a power player. You're not going to succeed at Aronamink." That's going to be a lie. of the shortest on the PGA tour, it goes out and wins. Those guys didn't know what the hell they're talking about. Why are we listening to them? Right. Right. So in any case, I look at some players further down the board and it's less about being a level playing field, which I do think. But it's more about just finding some good numbers on guys that I think are pretty good players. They might not be Scotty and Rory, but I look down the board. Shane Lowry's been snakebitten in the winner's circle for a while now. He's got two wins since the 2019 Open Championship. One was in 2022 at the BMW PGA when the Queen died and they didn't play on Sunday. He was leading Rory and Rombie one and they wound up just giving him the trophy. The other was in 24 at the Zorac when Rory McBroyd might have helped him a little bit as his teammate. Other than that, Shane hasn't won since that port rush victory, but it's a really good number. It's an 8085 to 1 number. I like that number. I like the number on Harris English, who's played well at major championships over the last few years. And if it's just a, hey, hit it in the fairway, hit it on the green, to put your way all the way around the week. Like, that's exactly how he plays golf. And I like, I like Harris English getting into the triple digits. Oxe Batia won at a place where we always think it's kind of US Open late. The Arnold Palmer invitation of Pay Hill. I mean, do I think he's going to win this week? No. Do I think there's value at 150 to 1 number? Yeah, I really do. Alex Noren until last week was playing really good golf. He's never won in North America. That said, could he win a US Open? Yeah, he's got the type of game that can do it. And then I look at a guy I won a major just a few years ago. There are markets where you can find Brian Harmon. At 220 to 1, fast, dumb, brand of guy that we've already seen. We have the evidence that on a fast firm, the only wasn't firm that week at the Open. It was raining all week. But on a fast firm, golf course, where you keep it in play and short game matters, Brian Harmon can have a very good week. I like all of those things. I understand exactly the direction that you're headed here. Those are all to me like, you know, top 20 plays. Because at those high odds in that framework, then you get very good return still in the top 20 markets for those guys, right Nate? Yeah. So we're you on Brooks in this injury? Inner out. I'm out. Yeah. I'm out and I love them last week. I will take the blame because I had Brooks at the RBC Canadian Open last week. I was counting my money when he was going to win the weekend. I really think he was going to win. I do. I think without the injury he was on because as house pointed out, the putter was finally there. Yeah. Yeah, I think so too. He was going to win injured before the third round, wound up with drawing before the final round. He said today in his press conference, look, I wouldn't be playing if it wasn't the US Open, but played nine holes. It's not 100 percent, but doesn't really hurt him. It just feels a little strange. It's an older nerve and speaking with some players, I was doing PJ tour radio earlier today and speaking with some guys that have dealt with that similar type of injury, it might be completely fine. And then again, on a eighth hole on Saturday afternoon, all of a sudden he hits one out of the rough and I just kind of vibrate so he loses feeling in his hand. So for me, I would have been on Brooks Kepta this week until that happened last weekend. So by transitive property, does that have you out on Jake Napp and Colin Moorakawa, who both have been battling some injuries to just that just making not trust him in this environment because speaking of long odds he wouldn't normally. Jake Napp could have been in the 40 to 45 to one range under normal circumstances. He's just withdrawn from four or five tournaments in a row, right? He's sitting there at 100 plus to one. I can't trust it. And again, it depends on the market you're looking at. If you want to take a shot on him as an outright play and say, you know what, I'll throw a few bucks on it. He's a really good player. We're getting some value here. I don't hate it. If you're going to throw him in a DFS lineup where I need six guys to be around on the weekend, I just don't. I don't think there's value there. More. It's okay. Mark outplayed four rounds last week. He played pretty well across the board. The numbers were decent. I'm not going to be on him this week. But if you wanted to talk me into like, hey, is a US open type player is, you know, the kind of guy that keeps him play, I can be talked into that a little. Yeah. Strong. I have been highly skeptical of Bryson D. Shembo. I mean, I said on the Sunday show that I'm betting him to miss the cut. I have better than Mr. Cut. The market is in that direction. It was plus one 88 on the Fandall sports book this morning. It is right now plus one 40. I mean, people are getting their cards together and fading Bryson. Where's your head when it comes to Bryson at the moment? Yeah, I want no piece of him right now. I just think there's too much going on. Not only on the golf course, he was testing new driver today. Oh my God. You're testing a drive on Tuesday of the US open. No way. We're doing Bryson. Yeah. It's just, and then there's things going on off the golf course. I don't think he knows what his future is. I think that for as much as he can play it cool and just say like, you know what, I got a lot of options and, you know, I'm in a really good spot. I don't think he is in a really good spot. I don't think he has any idea where he's going to be. What he's going to be doing six months from now. So I think that it's a weird time to be Bryson right now. And I want no part of him for a lot of reasons. Does that carry over then again, transitive property to Hatton and to Ram, who to me feels like Ram's coming in in a different head space and has shown us something over these last couple of months. Where do you stand with those guys? I think Ram's mentality right now is I'm just going to go out there and play really good golf at the major championships and I'll give a crap about it. I need this other stuff that's going on. I can't fix it this week anyway. And I think he's got a really good attitude about what's going on, which is like, like I said, I'm not going to be the guy bringing investors. You guys figure that out. My jobs play golf. I'm going to go wherever I'm playing this week and go play the best of my ability. And obviously the majors mean more to him than anything else. I like Ram this week. I really like Terrell Hatton this week. I went back to an interview that I did with him. I believe after the third round at Oakmont last year in the midst of a top five finish and I was kind of joking around during the interview saying, Hey, you know what? You're just such a calm guy on the golf course and you take everything and strive. So a tough test like the US open doesn't bother you right? Because you know what? Actually I'm off my head. I think it's the phrase used. I'm off my head every single round I play. These guys are off their heads here at a US open. So I've kind of got the advantage because they're not used to feeling that way. And I'm like some weird ass logic. But I think it actually makes a lot of sense in it. Terrell Hatton's a guy that maybe is perfect fit for US open because Adam Scott was getting mad at himself last year at Oakmont. Adam Scott has never gotten mad about anything in his life. And all of a sudden he's getting frustrated about certain lies that he's getting and shots that he's sitting. Terrell Hatton's like this on a Thursday morning in a live event. So for him to be dealing with it in the US open is nothing. I like having a lot this week. Well, and he certainly earned a stripes last year right? Look like he might actually win that tournament coming down the back. So. Yep. And he's validated it with additional good play at majors since. I'm interested in your vibes for Cam Young. New York's native son, Cam Young, whose career has, you know, if you think back to last year at Oakmont where he fared very well, that was really like that was by far his best performance in a major. And you know, he's he's now the accomplishments of all of the wins that he's racked up plus the Ryder Cup. We're back in New York. We knew. It's a New York state of mind. The parade is Thursday for the next for Christ's six. What's your sentiment? He came out like on fire, won the plate championship, won the row and it's cooled off a little bit here. The last, you know, handful of weeks. What's your vibe? I like Cam Young a lot this week. I think he's got the right kind of game. I think he's got the right kind of mentality. Look at the last two winners at Chinacock. Reteaf Goosan and Brooks Capka. What are they having common? The best poker faces in golf. You have absolutely no idea how they're feeling at any given moment. You can't see them on TV. Rory's a guy, for example, that you can I've maintained for years and not this is a bad thing. It's just a personality trait, but you can turn on your TV, not look at golf all day. See Rory McAurring go, oh, he's six under or he's three over. You can just see his body language and know that the score is good or not so good. And so Cameron Young's a guy like like Goosan, like Capka who doesn't wear his emotions on his sleeve and doesn't give you much, but myself and a lot of other people were on him at the BGA championship a month ago thinking powerful guy Northeast golf course sort of makes sense that I think we might have just been a month too early and he's not my favorite play on the board, but I definitely want to have some sort of investment in Cam Young this week. The only thing that makes me nervous about Cam House is three of his last five events. He's lost strokes putting and that has been the thing that has been the difference between him being candidly a mediocre player and a world class player, right? And he seemed to figure out the putter and then showed up and had a really rough week at memorial. Now, a lot of people have a rough week at memorial on those greens. That's why a lot of guys decide sometimes not even to play the course. So we won't hold it against him. He's posing in Hamptons magazines. So he seems to have that era of confidence. And I think the last time we saw him in New York, he was getting pulled around by the crowd through the Ryder Cup. So it's hard to bet against Cam Young this week. I mean, I'm not going to bet against him this week. I'm going to bet on him and have him for sure, top 10 and top 20. And then we'll see how things kind of shake out on Thursday. I will, of course, put you on the spot. So well for your winner and your favorite play on the board. In addition to your outright winner. But I do want to have a discussion around the score because I've seen a bookmaker put out the over under it one and a half under par, which I honestly was kind of surprised by. I thought it might be one or even, but like a half a stroke over par maybe even. What's your sense as to what the winning score this week is going to look like? I will start with this and that maybe this has always been the case, but especially recently over the past month, we've talked so much about conditions leading into these tournaments that we, sorry, excuse me, talked so much about setup leading into these tournaments that we don't talk enough about conditions. Yes. Ironman is a great example where we all surmised before, okay, well, it could be 18 under or which is what it was, the BMW championship and it's playing kind of like a PGA tour of annual. It might be somewhere in the mid to high teams under par. Aaron Rye won it nine under any one by three and a large part of that was because we got different weather patterns. Mother Nature cooperated that week in Philadelphia where it was wet and it was cool on Thursday morning and then we got some wind and then all of a sudden heated up on the weekend and the greens baked out a little bit and players had to adjust. You couldn't just go in with the game plan on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and say, all right, I got it. I'm doing it for the next four days. You had to continually adjust your game to fit the conditions and then was it the next win-eak or two weeks later, CJ Cup Byron Nelson, we hear all about this $25 million renovation. We're not getting 31 under par winning the golf tournament anymore instead. We got 30 under par and we got that not because the set up, the new renovation was wrong or bad. And great, that said, we got it because it rained for three straight days going into the week and they were playing a soft golf course. These guys are really good. You put them on a soft golf course. They're going to make a ton of birdies and that's what happened. So I think that going into this one, we're going to talk about the set up, but I think it's the conditions, potential conditions that they're going to have more of an impact on scoring. When I see the wind patterns looking like they are at least on Thursday and it might subside a little bit, but it's not going to stop for the next three days. I think this place is going to be really, really tough and I think it's something right around even par. I mean, we've had five editions of the US Open at Chinatown and three players total have broken par in those five events. I don't know that we see it this week. Where do you think Scotty is? I just, we've been joking here about how pissy he's been in the press conferences. He was fine today. But they asked him about how he feels about the Grand Slam and he was probably you and he said, didn't seem to give a shit about that. They asked him about whether he cares about starting times and he said no and they cut him off and ended the press conference. It looked like like reports on the ground, said he shot two over on the front today, which, and then he missed a decent number of fairways out there. How do you evaluate his game? And then when pairing that with his overall mental state of mind, how do you feel about Scottie coming in? So Nate, I don't care that he hasn't won an 11 starts. I mean, he's played good golf. It's not he's missing the cut. It's not like he's playing poorly. He's played really well. He's played well enough to win and just gotten beat by a handful. The players on those occasions, that said what really kind of intrigues me in a negative way is the frustration, the open frustration that he's had both on and off the golf course over the last three or four months, which is not very Scottie like. So yeah, that has me just sort of. I mean, God forbid Ted Scott misreads the win this week. I mean, whenever going to hear the end of it. And again, I think Scottie almost got a bad rap two weeks ago, the Memorial. I don't know who's yelling at Ted or more. We did. We did. That said, he's very outwardly frustrated. Scottie knows on a Friday afternoon, late in the day, at the Memorial, like you're on TV. Like we are going to hear this. Like he's understanding that these number one player in the world, whatever he says in that moment, if he goes on a five minute rant, it's not like it's behind closed doors. We're not going to know. He knows that this being heard around the world. And I don't know. He's just letting the frustrations get a little bit better part of him recently. The one thing I will say about him in relation to the career slam. And like you said, Nate, he talked about it. Unlike Tiger who had a poster at Jack on his wall and said, I want to break Jack Nicholas is all time major championship record. Unlike Worry, we saw the video from the BBC last year. He was eight or nine years old and said, I want to win all the majors. And he had a stated goal. And I think that might help him in trying to get the career slam at some point that he's not thinking about it all the time. I mean, other players have said that. Worry said, you know, the masters for years. Like, I'm not worried about that. I'm just trying to play good golf. We all knew that Worry was worried about trying to get a green jacket, trying to get the career slam. It was front of mind for him. I'm not sure that it is for Scotty Schaeffler. I honestly think that he wants to hit every shot to the best of his ability. I don't know that it's going to happen this week. I don't think it is quite honestly. But I think that that mentality is going to help him in this pursuit moving forward. I like that. I buy all of that. If you're trying to be glass half full about this entire moment that we're experiencing with Scotty, you would just chalk it up to his ultra competitiveness. Like, you know, we keep as we're sort of going through this moment in golf over the last 18 months or so looking for a hero, looking for the face of golf and why isn't Scotty more. We need more charisma out of Scotty. And here we're getting his competitive nature sort of coming out and we're puzzling over as this getting in the way of his success. We could glass half full it. Maybe he'll just come out and dominate this week. I mean, there's plenty of contrary evidence, but it's fine. He's always capable of winning anytime he walks out onto the golf course, you know, across the board. Every one of the Stroke's game categories, all of the advanced stats that go into those categories. They're all in favor of Scotty. Okay. I'm going to share some of the bets that I fired in today. I fired in a handful. Each of these now are on my favorite bet list. And then I want to hear sort of where you are. Give me a reaction and hear where your head is at. So I'm just in like, I want to make sure I talked about smuck insurance on our Sunday preview show. So I have some exposure to Cam Young. I mean, Cam, well, Cam Smith, yes, we'll get to that in a moment. The got a Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns. I didn't mean to say Cam Young, because I think Cam Young could definitely win this golf tournament. But that was early. Now I'm putting in guys like Cam Smith at plus 430. Okay. I shared that we understand, you know, there has been perhaps his, his, his own competitive interest, reawakened with this Claude Harmon relationship fingers crossed. Well, it was, I will say some what exciting watching him come down the stretch at Aronnamink. We were reminded of what that dude is capable of. So top 20 for Cam Smith at plus 430. I had to make sure I got some Patrick Reed at plus 210 for a top 20. We know what he's capable of at this venue. We watched it eight years ago, 2018. We know how well he's been, he's played in the first two majors of the season, the 10th and the 12th. And we know, you know, very quietly his motivation. He just wants to do the best, the very best he can until his suspension is up this fall. And so, you know, little top 20 for Patrick Reed put some Russell, Henley down, have to have some Russell. You can have him at plus 150 to top 20. Like I got to have that. And then I mentioned Bryson already. Bryson to miss the cut. He went from plus near plus 190 to plus 140. That's my little bucket of today bets that for sure I'll fit in my like, these are all my new favorites. House has really bad news for you. Listening. All of those plays. Oh, no. I'm so sorry man. I'm so sorry. It's fine. He lost a boatload there. Probably, but that's fine. We're used to it. I'm totally in line with all of those. Great. Awesome. All right. You're sort of favorite bucket and then we'll get to your choice of winner for this week. Yeah. So, all right. I'll give you the finishing position plays for some with you on re-eat. And I think Shane Lauer is going to have a good week. Yeah. A great round of greens this year. But I've got a good feeling about Shane this week. How about Matt and Rick McNeely for a top 10 top 20 type play. Only three players on the BJ tour this season are top 20 in both strokes game to round the greens and strokes game putting. Scotty Schuffler Eric Cole who's been very good recently and Math McNeely. I have a nice really long odds for him this very. Yeah. This is good. I don't think he's going to win the outright numbers. Like, it's probably what it should be, but he's fished 30 second or better in 12 of 14 starts, but nothing better than a 10th place finish. So I mean, you want to fire on him for a top 20 top 30 top 40. I think it makes a ton of sense. Cameron Smith is another guy I have. The lack of driving accuracy. I think will hurt him a little bit this week. But I like him. How about Jackson Coven in that top 20 top 20 market? Okay. Last storm is an amateur. Nate even probably watched him more than I have, but talking to his coach and Auburn Nick Linerd a few months ago, he said, when he has a putt, we're playing practice round matches. And you know, just fun matches amongst the teammates. If he's got a putt from inside 15 feet, the other guys walk off the green go to the next tee because he's like, yeah, it's not going to miss. And he makes it every time. I think he's the best putting prospect. It's funny. We don't talk in golf in terms of like guys specific traits on the golf course. Like, we're talking basketball like, oh, the best rebounding prospect in the NFL. Like the best, I don't know, like deep threat that we've seen years. But Jackson Coven is the best putting prospect since Jordan's feet almost 15 years ago. So I like him this week as well. Really good. I love both of us. I think we're at the moment. Let me start with Nathan. Who did you give out on Sunday, Nathan? I gave Tommy because it just felt like he's going to win at some point. But that was before I realized that the open isn't his hometown this year. And I wanted you over so badly. Yeah. Okay. Because that's probably where he's going to win. And Justin Ray gave out John Rom. I know. I think he, well, was it fits? You're on fits. Yeah. I'm on fits. And I haven't backed off that in any way. He gave out Rom. He did give out Rom. Okay. All right. So you have the context. So, well, the floor is yours. Who's going to win this US open? House. This is just that you're going to hate me at the end of the week. You're absolutely going to play. Oh, no. I think that's gone wrong in your life. It's all over. Fits this week. I love it. It's so obvious. First of all, it's pretty good number. It opened at 25 just to start the week. He's plus 430 to be top UK in Ireland. I mean, that seems like a great number. Getting very little respect in the markets. First of all, secondly, it's got three wins this year. He just finished runner up in Canada last week. He's one of US open in the past, only four years ago. Last time they were at Shinnecock, he finished 12th here in 2018. There's not a box that he hasn't checked. There's nothing else. There's no questions that he needs to answer coming into this one. Oh, it's windy. He's a low ball hitter. He's this flat ball that should have helped in the wind. There's not really something I don't like. Now, can he get some bad breaks out there? Some bad lies. Shoot 75 in the opening round and we're ripping up the tickets before we even start. Absolutely. These are no guarantees. Like I said, a month ago, it felt like all of us were on camera and young because he just sort of fit. He checked all the boxes and he finished 26 that week. He didn't play bad. Didn't play great. Could bad fits Patrick be the same thing at the end of this week? Absolutely. I mean, fits have the easiest. second place finish that anyone's ever had last Sunday. Like he's six under it. It was a walk in in Canada. Bud Colley chipped in on, you know, 12 or 13 and made a bunch of putts with his eyes closed. I mean, it just, he very easily could have and probably should have won that golf tournament. So I'm with you. I just, I cannot believe that all he's got to do is beat Rory, Tommy, Terrell, and Rose and you get plus 430 on your money. I get I love it. Wait a minute. All you got to do. I mean, there's a bunch of major. I know, but I just think the quality of his game right now. I'm with so strong. You always say I'm with Rory's driver there. That's what you're doing. I thought his comments this week were outstanding. I mean, that's part of what really emboldened me to double down, which is terrible for everybody. He's like bring the pain. Yeah, exactly. And he said, you know, the comment was made about they lost the course. I didn't think they lost the course. I got the court. You know, I just love where his head is at. And, and, you know, he was thoughtful about the experience eight years ago and thoughtful about what he has in front of him here. Loves hard golf courses too. That shouldn't be understated this week. And then yeah, he has always maintained like I like it when parts of good score. I like being able grind out rounds that, you know, a 70 should be a good score. And you don't have to go out and shoot 63 to climb the leaderboard. So like I said, ticks every box for me. If the wind is whipping and bending the pins, you think he pulls the pins when he's putting or does it leave him in? I would. I would. I can't stand that. We saw that the US women's open a few weeks ago. There were some of the players in contention down the stretch. The wind was whipping pretty good at rift that day. And they're leaving the pins in. I'm sitting there thinking like, what do you do? I think it's like rattling back and forth in the cup like, take it out. Give yourself a chance. And they weren't doing it. Well, so we're not going to leave the pin in with you this week. Are you on every day through the tournament on serious XM? I am doing the post game show with Gary Williams every night after plays over. Amazing. So there you go. If you're if you're get your computer out, put so below and you can have the live from guys on just for the visuals, but listen to so broad. Gary Williams, we appreciate you as always, my buddy. You you have a week up there. Thank you, boys. Appreciate everything. Great to see you guys. Thanks for having me on and let's go win some money. Let's go win some money. My buddy, buddy, my part saving pal is my eagle enthusiast. There you have it. The final cards are out there. If there's anything else that catches our attention, just pay attention to the socials. We'll push them out there. But please, this is a magnificent week. It's the US Open. It's Shinacock. Fathers day on Sunday. If you're able to celebrate perhaps with your own round. Throw a peg in the ground and please let's head them straight on there. Must be 21 years older, older and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 plus and present in DC Kentucky or Wyoming gambling problem called 1-800-Gamber or 1-800-MyReset-MY-R-E-S-E-T. Call 1-8-8-7-8-9-77-77 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HopeENY in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867. [Music]