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How Leveraged ETFs Became Wall Street's New Obsession

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How Leveraged ETFs Became Wall Street's New Obsession

The transcript discusses the rise of leveraged ETFs, which have reached $200 billion in assets and account for 13% of daily ETF trading volume. These products offer 2x or 3x daily returns on indices or single stocks, appealing to traders seeking quick gains in a bull market. Index-based leveraged ETFs, like 3x Nasdaq, see frequent outflows as traders take profits, indicating disciplined use. However, single-stock leveraged ETFs, new since 2022, have attracted $36 billion in inflows with little outflow, suggesting longer holding periods and potential for volatility decay. Some single-stock ETFs, particularly in small-cap or retail-heavy names like MicroStrategy and Bitmine, can disproportionately impact underlying stocks due to their size relative to liquidity, a phenomenon called "tail wagging the dog." Critics, including analysts like James Safert, warn of systemic risks during market downturns, but proponents like Eric Balchunas argue the notional exposure is under 1% of the equity market, making systemic risk minimal. The debate highlights that leveraged ETFs are a trading tool for speculation, akin to gambling, and while they generate profits for many users, they carry significant risks, especially in volatile markets. The conversation also notes that South Korean regulators have expressed regret over approving similar products, but U.S. markets are deeper and more liquid, likely mitigating extreme outcomes.

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Innovation is rethinking what's possible in entertainment. From AI-driven streaming to immersive concerts and gaming powered by virtual reality, technology is redefining how we watch, listen, and connect. The next era of entertainment is already in motion, built by innovators turning imagination into industry. Invesco QQQ provides access to the company's fueling this technology and more, in a single ETF. Access the future today lets rethink possibility. There are risks when investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. ETF risks are similar to those of stocks. Investments in the tech sector are subject to greater risk and more volatility than more diversified investments. Before investing, consider the funds investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit investgo.com for a perspective containing this information. Read it carefully before investing. Investgo Distributors Inc. This week on Leaders with me, Franzi Lacqua. I speak to tennis legend Rafa Nadal about how he stayed competitive despite injury. I was able to enjoy the victory is probably more than if I will not have this issue. One iconic match. In my mind was, I am almost dead. And whether he misses playing. I don't miss tennis because was nothing else to offer. Listen and watch Leaders with me, Franzi Lacqua, on Bloomberg Television or wherever you get your podcasts. News. Welcome to Trains. I'm Joel Weber. And I'm Eric Balchardis. You know, I was thinking about this episode Eric. And it's a little overdue, but we've touched on it in a couple different ways, but we haven't given it the full episode treatment. A leverage, also known as X. XXX. So this is that episode where we're going to talk about leverage. Yeah, this is probably the core of the hot sauce that we talk about. Leverage ETF has been around for a long time, but they've gotten really popular lately. And they're growing, although we'll go into, they're growing kind of with in tandem with the market. But still, their assets are now up to $200 billion. The trading volume has also gotten bigger. And what's given them a recent kick is the 2X stock ETFs. That's kind of new. This single stock. Yeah. And some of them are popular. So now you have the traditional sort of like 2X and 3X index funds, like the 2X, 3X, NASDAQ, or S&P, plus all these individual stocks. And what these issuers are finding that if you get one hit, you're like set for life. Like the 2X, NewVity has 5 billion. That's 50 million in revenue, because they charge a lot. So you see a lot of launches in this area. You see a lot of volume. But as I will defend them a little bit to the two people we have on, we're going to have a debate this episode. They don't have a ton of assets. Like they're still pretty tiny, but they, they seem bigger and they're definitely popular with the trading crowd no doubt. So they're getting a lot of crap lately, different columnists and whatnot. They're starting to get scapegoated a little like, oh, watch these things. They're going to like totally crash the market. There's a lot of some worry articles. So we should just discuss it, you know, facts versus fiction. How much of this sort of negative press is earned versus, you know, histrionics. And I thought we should just get it all out because even James Safert on my team who's going to be on this podcast, he has been writing about how leverage ETFs are the tail wagging the dog. Again, that's that's like pretty loaded language. I wrote a note pushing back on that. And it's a good debate to have. I think it's one the industry is having and we should have it right here right now. Joining us, James Safer, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, as well as Todd Sone, the chief ETF strategist at Baird Straticus. This time on trillions, a great debate about levered ETFs. Are they the boogie man? Which a number of naysayers feel? Or are they paper tigers? Which maybe a few analysts in this room feel? Todd James, welcome back to trillions. Great to be with you guys. Thanks for having me. Okay, James, are you 3x on these things or like negative 3x? So I actually agree with like 99% of what Eric was saying. The problem is that there is some instances of some of these single stock ETFs where they've just gotten kind of gotten too big for the pond that they're swimming in. They're holding, they're offering 2x leverage on, you know, small and mid cap stocks that don't necessarily trade a ton. And these ETFs are trading a lot and there's a lot of even options on them. And there is a little bit of the tail wagging the dog. But again, we're talking about like a handful of these these stocks that are being affected. It's not a criticism of the broader leveraged ETF universe, but there is definitely some tail wagging the dog here in names. Like if I'm going to throw a few out there, BM and our bit mine immersion technologies, which is a Ethereum company, micro strategy, OCLO, which is a nuclear, it tends to be a lot of these retail heavy things you would see on Reddit. Those are the things that end up being this tail wagging the dog sort of thing where I was talking about. What about SK high necks there, Todd? I do find it very humorous that high necks just had its worst daily loss on record. And now we're launching 2x high necks ETFs. It's just you can't write a better story. I don't think this is a systemic risk. I tend to agree with Eric and James, but the majority of the 200 billion assets here are tied to semiconductors in large cap tech, which is also tied to the bulk of investor portfolio. So that's where my worry comes in, right? A lot of the same stuff is tied together portfolios, whether you realized or not. And if there's an unwind, especially driven by maybe high necks, declining like this, that's going to be painful for the common investor. Why have these become so popular this year? Look, America likes the gamble. I mean, in some Asian countries, Europe, not so much like these things are hit different areas in the world. You're America, I think in a bull market. Look, I'm old enough to have seen this cycle a couple times where leverage ETFs kind of get more popular in a bull market. And then there's like, as we call it a hard rain, and a bunch of them close. And then things calm down. The market starts getting up again. And you see more launches. But for the most part, if you, if you lent me money, if you let me $100, and I'm not going to do that, but I know, but if you let me money and I'm like, really bad investment, Tesla stock with it. Yep. That's, that's leverage. I mean, it's, it's just a 2x version and it promises it every day. So I think with leverage, it depends on where you come down with trading. Like if you are, if you want to judge intent, like you as a retail person, you should be a good boy and you should only go long term and buy VU. And that's it. Anything else, we're going to slap your hand because you're not smart enough. Or do you allow for people to make their own mistakes, allow for people to trade some people who use these might have a Vanguard account, but then have this as like the little cowboy account, just the, you know, entertainment, really. And in some cases, they do well. If we look at all these leverage ETFs overall, they have generated about 65 billion in profits for the investors they use. A lot of people don't think that some have had big losses and the volatility drag of holding them over long term can be a nasty surprise. So there's a lot of bogebos in there. But for the most part, the trading volume, 13% of all ETF trading is leverage, but they're only 1% of assets. That ratio tells you they they're being used as directed, which is as a trading tool to gamble to speculate, but I mean, hell, there's a huge derivatives market that is made for the same thing. But just because it's called like options, it's like safer or better. I don't know. Like it just seems like a little judgmental to me to fingerwag at the retail investors who are using this. And again, if you add up all the leverage ETFs and add in their notional exposure, like the 2x, it's still less than 1% of the size of the equity market. So there's a lot more going on here. And I just, I don't know, for now, I'm just like it's always been this niche thing for people who are like, want to get a quick hit. I equate it to whiskey and fast food. It's not healthy, but it does, it'll make you feel good for a minute. More of a tequila guy, to be honest with you. So you mentioned the 13% of asset trading volume. They trade on average $50 billion per day. That's a 10 fold since pre-COVID. So something changed over the last five to six years, I think is amazing. Why are they so popular? It's just, I think it's just access and efficiency, right? You don't need margin. You can go on your phone, brokerage account, and buy. It's just a ticker. Yeah, it's any other ticker. The tricky part, though, is let's just say the chip stocks are down. The largest levered ETFs are triple Nasdaq and triple Semiconductor. So now you're seeing those, because the size of those funds have gotten so big in terms of no ocean, we're talking about $100 billion. At the end of the day, when they have to rebound, exposure, you're seeing flows of 10 to 20 billion dollars. That affects some of the trading for these. For a Vanguard investor, it's a noise. But for some of the more institutional act investors, that starts to whip around a lot of the stocks. James mentioned Bitmine. That's a smaller scenario. Now you're talking about these heavyweight names. I guess the analogy would be a rush to the fire. That starts to sell pressure to other people start to sell. I don't know, but that's my worry. We've had these in sell-offs. True. I would agree with that. But you could also have outflows from mutual funds that own equities that exacerbate a sell-off. There's all these vehicles and ways to get the stocks. If people don't like the stocks, all of them will exacerbate a sell-off. I just look at it as the bigger thing going on here that I think ticks off people. It's just people who want the market to go down. I don't know why, but they're like, dooms, permabairs, or they just have their own internal biases for why they want to see the market crash. And now I think they leverage ETFs are part of like in their crosshairs. But the bigger issue is people just want to trade. They want to gamble in the market. These are one avenue to do that. - There becomes a moment in every bull market where it becomes a hated bull market. We probably passed that a while ago. But James, I wanted to ask you how these things work, right? Like they do use some funky stuff. - Yeah, Bloomberg intelligence. You guys have a traffic light system. Is there any such thing as a non-yellow or red light leverage? I mean, these are all basically red light products, right? - Anything two extra hires gonna be an automatic red light. But what they do is they basically get swap exposures. So a bank is a bank is the counterparty on these. And what a lot of these ETFs do, particularly single stock ones, is they use multiple different banks to get this exposure. So basically what it's doing is a saying, it's gonna give you the daily return of 2Xs underlying single stock or underlying index. And the bank has taken the other side of that and they're hedging that risk. We did see examples of micro strategy in late 2024 where like the banks were like that's enough. Like we can't even offer you anymore here. We have seen some of this. And what these 2X products ended up doing is they started using options to kind of do their best to get that 2X daily exposure. So there is some sort of like self-policing from the banks and their risk departments, if you will. But I would say, regarding what Eric was saying, like I think if you take out just the index ones, the 3XQs or 2X inverse S&P 500, if I look at the data there and like the amount of trading and the flows, those look really healthy. Like everything there doesn't look like it's like changing too much. But when you look at some of these single stock ETFs, you don't see the same level of outflow. So if you look at the index leverage ETFs, over their lifetime, they've actually seen $36 billion in outflow. So basically as people are earning money, they're taking money out, they're being smart. There's a lot of money going to the short side of people using his hedges. We are not seeing that same level of like intelligent use of the single stock ETFs. It all comes back to like what's happening on that front. And like I said, I'm focused on a handful of smaller names that are getting pushed, likely getting pushed around here. So it kind of reminds me if you go back to like junior gold miners stocks, basically there's a few examples of ETFs where the actual ETFs were impacting underlying holdings. Arc ETFs in 2021 are a good example of some names. We just had an ETF called the Small Cap Cash Cows ETFs ticker calf. It basically had limits on the holdings that could hold. And it said it could only be 2% in the portfolio. The problem is if it gets 2% of our portfolio in like a $100 billion fund and the stock isn't that big, you end up owning 25% to 30% of the underlying stock. So they had to change their methodology because they were like, this fish is getting too big for the pond and swimming in. We need to put some guardrails on. And I think there are some names where like some of these ETFs, these single stock ETFs, there probably should be some guardrails or if there isn't anyone listening this trading those names, they should be very much aware of the assets and trading volume that's happening in these single stock ETFs. Just to clarify one thing, what are you seeing when you're when people are investing in or using leverage single stock ETFs? If if you're seeing there's some outflows in the index stuff, are people just letting it roll in the single stock? Yes. What does that do? I think part of it is like the category is growing, right? Like one, it's growing because there were launching new ETFs. I think we're over 750 leverage ETFs. I don't know how many of those are single stock, but it's it's a lot. And they're brand new. They only came out in 2022. Don't quote me on that exact date, but they're relatively new in the last four years. So part of it is, this is a growing category. And it's new. But like from the inception of the first one, which was June 2022, they have taken in 36 billion. They haven't really had that much in the way of outflows. Whereas like if you look at the index stuff, we see people taking money out as these things going up. We see constant money going into the short side. We're not seeing that in a single stock in the same way. So I'd say like there is part of it. It's brand new. We don't know. But like people are pouring in and they're holding it there. And that's one of the reasons why it's growing so quickly. Because when the market is going up kind of, it's not exactly a straight line. But if you look over the last little while, it's basically gone up continuously. And when that happens in a leverage ETF, it actually compounds. When it's volatile and going up and down, that's when you have the leverage decay that Eric was talking about. But when it's just going up 80% of the time on a daily basis, you actually compound those assets. And that's part of the reason why we're seeing the growth. Todd has written about this. I've written about it. We peaked at like before 2022, we had never seen a point where the ratio of long to short went above 5x. We're at 19x. Like we're that long side of this is getting a little bit long in the tooth for lack of a better term. Yeah. Look, a couple of things. I did just look James like the 2x Tesla and the 2x NVIDIA did. They have like negative. They have outflows over the last couple of years. And if you look at their chart day to day, it's in and out in and out. It's not like it's all going in. I do think in what he was pointing out is that these traders who use these are not dumb at this point. They've been around for 15 years. They know how to they basically here's the move. You go into it. And if it goes up, you basically take profits. And then you put some of that money in the negative one. And you hope that one like reverses and goes back and just go back and forth hoping to make money between them. That's why the 2x long products tend to have outflows. That's people taking profits. That's like a money printing machine for them. And this was a big thing with XIV, the inverse vol ETF. It was misunderstood. Yes, it had a spectacular crash went down 90% in one day. We all remember a rest in peace. It terminated. But that ETF made money during its lifetime. It generated more money for people than it lost. The only thing is if you had been in it in the last day when the music stopped, it would suck. But you might have been the person who would actually take in profits the whole time. It wouldn't be as big of a deal. So I think if you're using these products, the key is to you, you monitor them every day, look at them and have a plan. And if it goes up, you should take profits probably. That's what people who use them do. And that's why the volume I think is so high. So again, I would equate it to a part of the casino where people are doing a certain type of trading and gambling. It would appear they're doing the right thing here, which is to not hold it long term. You know, you can get lucky and compounding happens, but I wouldn't count on that. I think you'd need to assume that won't happen. Because if you look at the 2x Tesla and the negative 2x, they're both about down since they came out because of the volatility of Tesla. But other ones have gone up. TQQ is up 38,000% since it came out. And that thing is generated $50 billion for its investors. Believe it or not. Innovation is rethinking what's possible and entertainment. And AI driven streaming to immersive concerts and gaming powered by virtual reality. Technology is redefining how we watch, listen and connect. Invest go QQQ provides access to the company's fueling this technology and more in a single ETF. Access the future today. Let's rethink possibility. Before investing, consider the funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Invest go distributors ink. Hi, I'm Barry Rittultz inviting you to join me for the Masters in Business Podcast. Every week we bring you conversations with the people who shape markets, investing and business. Speak with CEOs, Nobel laureates, market innovators and legendary investors. Whether you own stock bonds, real estate commodities, even crypto, these are discussions you absolutely need to hear. Subscribe to the Masters in Business Podcast on Apple Spotify or anywhere you listen. Todd, everything that's ever gone wrong in finances usually involved leverage. And during this SK Heinix moment, the South Korean regulator where there is a leveraged SK Heinix product said that they had regretted approving the leverage single stock ETF. Are we going to regret this soon enough? I don't know, but those headlines are not a good thing for what that's worth, but that's also less developed market. We have a very deep market here with plenty of liquidity. So I'm sure there'll be some bloaps here and there, but I'm not sure I would equate the Korean market to the US market here. Lots of retail activity though. Yeah, I mean, you're going to read stories about retail blowing up their accounts here. There was a great article in the Korea Times about how some people were in the two ex-Hinix products and they now basically lost their savings because that fund is down 70% from a tie, at least the one in Hong Kong. And in terms of the single stocks, there's 400 of them now and they're all over the market cap. 250 of them, by the way, have less than 25 million assets. There's a lot of zombies, I think, as you guys like to use them. So that also says, okay, yes, there's a lot of product here, but people aren't really buying into it. There are a lot of tickets. So I think that's a good thing. But what I do find interesting is if the path of rates goes higher, that may put more strain on the ability for banks to want to lend out swaps to it. That's kind of a more plumbing issue. And James mentioned MicroShadji a few years ago, that product basically broke. There is a two Xandas product too that has a small solid recall options also. And I wonder if that name's getting too volatile. But I mean, to me, this idea of a broken egg once in a while is fine. You can't make everything perfect all the time. You have these ETFs and we, again, we call this small part. upon problem. And occasionally the ETF grows a little too big for the size it's in. Something has to adjust or an XIV where it terminates. And that's probably what will happen. If there's a huge selloff, we'll probably see a couple of terminations. But I think for anybody worried that this would get like a bigger and worse, the good news for everybody, like who's a worried word about this, the SEC will not allow three X or four X or five X stock ETFs. Had they allowed those for we would have like a termination event every week or two. It would be really huge distraction. I would be against. I'd say for now. I don't know. I don't know. I got to know, because that's written into the code. You can't have three X stock. Of course. Although no one's tried an E T N yet. But there's four X S and P. No, no, no, single stock. Yeah, single stock. That's the thing that because if you have three, four X S and P, it's not that bad, honestly, a three X four X single stock, that can really go to like the if all you need is like a 25% move in that. It's like Colgate palm. But the four X S and P, that's still has to be an exchange-treated note. Right? Yeah. But that one, again, the S and P, what's the volatility of the standard deviation is probably like what 12%. It's just not, doesn't move as much. Yeah. It won't have a liquidation event unless you had like a, because I mean, there's limit up, limit down, by the way, of 7%. So technically, it could never go bust in a day. I mean, I want to ask you 750 leverage ETFs, four of 100 of them are single stock, both you and Todd, when you think of the leverage category, who's the biggest name and what are they doing that distinguishes their strategy? Yeah, I'm looking at the numbers right now. We have 440 and single security levered long and 56 in single security leverage short. So we're over 500 now. And like a couple hundred of them came in the last few weeks. So I mean, one of those issues we have to call out is corgi because there are a huge reason for the huge number of launches in the last few weeks. But leverage shares, which started in Europe, when leverage shares had these single stock Europe had these single stock ETFs long before the US ever did. And then you have direction and pro shares, for example, they, they're the leverage kings of the heyday, they had basically a borderline monopoly or do opily, I should say before we had the SEC change the rules to allow other issuers to launch leverage products. You have racks, you have tuddled, you have tuddled that's partnered with racks. I mean, there's a whole bunch of what's ends up happening is you have you have these issuers that came in and they far granted shares a great example. They were a commodity shop. That's what they did. They had one of the cheapest gold ETFs when they came out, but they launched leverage products in Europe and they brought them here. And now they're basically primarily a leverage ETF shop. And part of it is because what Eric was talking about at the beginning, these things charge one and a half percent. If you're trading it on a daily basis, you don't really care about that fee. The power of the dark side drill. It's a lot of money. I know because here's the thing, who in the hell wants to compete with Vanguard and now even like cheap active like DFA and advanced charge like nothing and black rock like it's almost it's just like who needs it? Let's launch all these crazy ones, hope one sticks and will be set for life. And I think that's just the way the market is right now. It's polarized. And Ethan had a good note. He called it the jack bogal paradox. The more money that goes into low cost passive from Vanguard and black rock, the more there's going to be crazy launches because it would be so hard to compete there that people are just going to like use their brains to come up with the next sort of weird fun gadget for retail to play with. I like that. James mentioned the duopoly of direction and pro shares. And then Corgi is the enigma because they're launching half the cost of these products. Yeah. So by the way, Joel, you got to hear this that. So Corgi is competing with everybody everywhere. So they got Bay regular beta. They'll do everything. But we just ran the numbers. Henry on my team has all the numbers for filings. They have 160 ETFs on the market already. They have 350 or 60 filed. If they that's all this year too, right? Like they didn't have a single ETF for three months before they launch their first ETF in November. Okay. Last year. But if they launch what they have filed, which will all be ready to launch in the next two and a half months, they will have upwards of about 500 ETFs within one year of their existence. That would be the most of anybody like BlackRock is like 485. Wow. So like this has a decent chance of being the biggest ETF issue or by number of products within one year. Wow. Isn't that insane? Somebody's very, very busy over there. I'm curious. Is there a leveraged ETF that sort of changed your mind at all about what the space is capable of? I mean, there have to be the single stocks, I guess, right? The one that really opened up the space, I think, was in video, right from Grand Cherokee. And we know. Yeah. That was like that. I think caught the attention. I said, Oh, if you can find a name with, you know, it's about to go on a world class run. You can make a lot of money. Yeah. Well here. Like Ron is most recent example, yeah, this is the beautiful thing about it. Let's, most stocks go up, right? Generally. And if you pick a like quantum stock or a tech stock that's early, you get flows, but then you also get assets from the market going up. So like NVDL probably only had like a billion and a half of flows, but I got to six billion because the video was so hot. So that's like a great way to increase your assets, which gives you more revenue. So I look back and I'm like, Oh my God, it was so simple. Just two exks. Good stocks. Like I should have done it was so obvious in retrospect. The, the interesting thing about this is the larger the space gets, that means we're in a more powerful, bull market. So it's kind of a two way street where, oh, we're going to keep talking about this leverage impact, but that means the market still rising because of the two X exposure. And James had mentioned the ratio of ever long to inverse earlier. And I think that's becoming like an interesting sentiment, barometer, right? Historically, you use the options market investor surveys to measure how enthusiastic people are. Leverages a newer version of that. It's yes, the proximate around for 20 years, but it's only until recently where their usage rate has really gone up. So I kind of look at that as a barometer. So what do you think the 19 X means? People are very enthusiastic about tech. And I'm not here to say when tech slows down, but it's a great time to diversify. And you know, it's interesting when the SpaceX ETFs launched nobody. Yeah, what did we learn from that? Well, it was interesting. Nobody launched a 1 X inverse. It's like they just forgot to do something. It was like to vanilla. And that was a little bit of a sign of like how crazy things were getting. But I do think they'll see a lot more inverse products if the market goes flatter down. The market, the ETF market will respond just like you'll see more value ETFs in a down market or you'll see more natural resource theme ETFs. The market will just figured out and we'll probably see some inverse ETFs and that 19 X will come down. And it will, but I would say that that 19 to one ratio, it's a signal that the market is just so exuberant right now, especially tech when it does correct back to say 3 to 1 4 to 1 great time to buy stocks. Not a recommendation, but usually a good time to buy stocks. Yeah, it's like a signal. Yeah, it's a new sentiment parameter for the kind of modern market. James, what do we, what have we not seen yet that you expect? It will be a trend to watch. Actually, I wish I knew. I mean, one thing that is interesting, we're seeing other issuers, they launched these hit products, the round hills, a good example, they launched D ramp, which is the most successful ETF launch we ever seen. It invests in, you know, semis and memory makers. And they also launched their own two X version of D ramp, despite all these other issuers filing. So we're seeing other issuers that we kind of hinted at. We mentioned a whole bunch of names that are like now getting into space like we have a hit product. We also need to own the leverage version of this product because we don't want somebody else to get it. But going back to where some of those leverage ratios, I want to throw some number other numbers out there. That 19 X was just the whole space, including index. If you just look at the single stock, the ratio is actually 38 to one. Wow. And then if you include that's a good leverage. And if you include leverage, it's 45 to one. So like, it's actually even worse than that. If you if you take into account when you're just looking at the single stock, but again, single stocks brand new, it's we've been, they've only been really around in mostly a bull market. And there's a lot of interest coming in. But if you broaden that out, it goes to 22 X to one when you incorporate leverage. So you wait by how much leverage are actually in the system. That D ramp case is interesting. That's the, I think that maybe the first time someone 2 X themselves, Corey is following for like a photonics and lithography ETF. And then the next filing is a 2 X photonics and lithography. They're 2 Xing before the things even a hit. That's like 3 2 Xing yourself, which is like a whole another like dimension of thought. It's the pasta. You want the truffles too? Yeah, look, I just consider ETFs a big tent. And I consider this to be the trading wing. As you know, our solution to all this is just to have movie ratings. These are our rated products. Just call them R rated in our case of red light. And that way the people go into them are like, yeah, I like to do our right like this stuff. And this somebody who isn't looking for that will be like, why are these red light? And they read like, yeah, that's not for me. That's the only thing I would add to all this is just to protect the innocent. There should be maybe some label like parental advisory, you know, or a red light or something, which is what we think. But for the most part, I just try not to judge from a moral basis if people want to speculate and gamble. How far is New York casino? Like, have it Atlantic City. Okay, we'll drive there and we're going to withdraw your money. No, yep. Don't like this. And we're going to go to the roulette table. We're going to put it all on red. And if black comes up, we just lost 100% of your money and it's completely legal. These aren't even close to being that dangerous. All right. How do you like that for some what about is you just broke my brain a little bit there. Yeah. Yeah. Like that's what I'm saying. Like you could go and just you could go, remember supersize me? Of course. If you want, you can just eat McDonald's every meal. But you shouldn't. But I just think people who use these use them as a cheap thrill. I agree. percent with what Eric said. And honestly, I would go a little, I would, the only thing I would add is like, we might need something more than R for some of these single stock levered ETS, more like NC 17 or whatever those things are x rated because they are like real power tools. Well, if they're two x and they roll futures, I think that's where you go NC 17 because that's like a whole other. I will say I would like issuers to say, hey, we're buying options because we can't get more swaps. I think that's the next step of this. Agreed. Yeah. And by the way, if the, what you ding these things on is if they don't deliver it. Like, let's say you went to the liquor store and the Jack Daniels was half filled with apple juice, that's a problem. But the fact that you want the whiskey in there. So you want these things to give you two x every day or negative two x and we, I checked a couple in spot check. They're largely really good. They're within a couple basis points of giving you that. That's what you should judge these on. Not whether the intent of the investor is moral or not. Todd, with the trend in this leverage space that you're going to be looking out for, I saw last week in the filing system a bunch of 2x thematic ETFs. We've had sectors for a long time. The indices, single stocks. Now it seems to be moving towards 2x nuclear, 2x infrastructure, 2x defense. So you get a little bit more diversity and a little more diversity and just trying to amplify exposure to any sort of big themes that are out there. And we've had 2x semis for now. But now you're getting more niche in the thematic space. And then I don't know, I think just more to single stocks basically because we got a lot of POs coming down the line and they're already for those. Okay, there we go. Todd James, thanks for joining us on Trillions. Thank you. Thanks for listening to Trillions. Until next time, you can find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you like to listen. We'd love to hear from you. Hit us up on social. Trillions is produced by Magnus Hendrickson and Keshe Off, India. Bye. Gain insight on the innovators, disruptors and tech-driven trends shaping today's complex economy. I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim Stenevek. Wrap up your work day with the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcasts. 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Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Leveraged ETFs have grown to $200 billion in assets, with 13% of all ETF trading volume but only 1% of assets, indicating heavy use for short-term trading and speculation.
  2. Index-based leveraged ETFs (e.g., 3x Nasdaq) show healthy use with outflows during gains, while single-stock leveraged ETFs (e.g., 2x Tesla) attract inflows and are held longer, raising concerns about risk.
  3. Some single-stock leveraged ETFs, particularly in small-cap and retail-heavy names like MicroStrategy and Bitmine, may "wag the dog" by influencing underlying stock prices due to their size relative to liquidity.
  4. Critics warn of systemic risks from leverage in a downturn, but proponents argue the notional exposure is under 1% of the equity market, and these products are primarily used by informed traders for gambling or hedging.
  5. The popularity is driven by ease of access via mobile apps, the bull market, and the compounding effect of rising markets, though volatility decay can lead to losses over time.

Summary:

The transcript discusses the rise of leveraged ETFs, which have reached $200 billion in assets and account for 13% of daily ETF trading volume. These products offer 2x or 3x daily returns on indices or single stocks, appealing to traders seeking quick gains in a bull market. Index-based leveraged ETFs, like 3x Nasdaq, see frequent outflows as traders take profits, indicating disciplined use.

However, single-stock leveraged ETFs, new since 2022, have attracted $36 billion in inflows with little outflow, suggesting longer holding periods and potential for volatility decay. " Critics, including analysts like James Safert, warn of systemic risks during market downturns, but proponents like Eric Balchunas argue the notional exposure is under 1% of the equity market, making systemic risk minimal. The debate highlights that leveraged ETFs are a trading tool for speculation, akin to gambling, and while they generate profits for many users, they carry significant risks, especially in volatile markets.

S. markets are deeper and more liquid, likely mitigating extreme outcomes.

FAQs

A leveraged ETF uses financial derivatives and debt to amplify the daily returns of an underlying index or stock, typically aiming for 2x or 3x the daily performance.

Yes, they carry high risk due to leverage, volatility decay, and potential for significant losses, especially if held long-term in volatile markets.

They provide 2x daily exposure to a single stock using swaps or options from multiple banks, but can face liquidity issues if the underlying stock is small or thinly traded.

They offer easy access to amplified returns via mobile trading, especially in bull markets, and are popular among retail investors for speculation and short-term trading.

Index leveraged ETFs track broad indices like the Nasdaq and show healthier outflow patterns as investors take profits, while single-stock ETFs are newer, more volatile, and often see persistent inflows.

While they represent a small fraction of total assets, large leveraged ETFs in major sectors like semiconductors can amplify sell-offs, though systemic risk is considered low.

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