The conversation analyzes recent Democratic primaries, revealing a party that is progressive but electorally pragmatic. In Wisconsin and Michigan, voters chose moderate candidates like David Crowley over progressive challengers like Francesca Hong, prioritizing winnability over ideology. This pattern suggests Democrats have not lurched far left, unlike a Tea Party moment, but are a broad progressive party tempered by a base that includes older, moderate voters. Both parties show norm erosion, but Republicans have become less ideologically conservative under Trump, while Democrats balance leftward shifts with practical governance. Polling surprises are explained by high undecided rates and late shifts, not systemic failure, and prediction markets are viewed as supplementary, not superior, to polls. Trump's focus on personal projects and economic dissatisfaction evokes pre-2006 conditions, hinting at potential Democratic midterm gains. AOC's distancing from past extremes and personal storytelling indicate presidential ambitions, while immigration remains a tricky issue for Democrats. Overall, the discussion highlights a political landscape where voters seek practical solutions over ideological purity, and both parties navigate internal tensions amid broader dissatisfaction with Trump's leadership.
"What's wrong with the polls? Is it a feature of the primary season?" I just want to say, I didn't poll in either of these races, so I don't have raw data sets to see if it's real. I bet you're really happy about that. Hi, I'm Robert Siegel, and this is a conversation about politics with New York Times' opinion-contributing writer, EJ Dion, who's our regular participant, hello, EJ. Great to be with you. And returning to this conversation, opinion-contributing writer, Kristen Saltis Anderson, who is also a conservative poster. Welcome back. It's great to see you. Thank you for having me. Great to have you here. And we have much to talk about. Starting in the upper Midwest, where Democrats picked a moderate to run for governor of Wisconsin, and Minnesotans chose a progressive to run for the U.S. Senate. Put those together with last week's Michigan primary and EJ, what do you see? Well, what you don't have, I think, is a party lurching to the far left, as some would have it. Nor I think you have a party that's engaged in a French Revolution-style Civil War. What you do have is a broadly progressive party, in the big sense of, for the word, progressive, which is why Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan a progressive, soundly defeated a moderate Angie Craig, a member of Congress in Minnesota, and why Abdul-Dr Abdul-Elsaid, won a narrow victory over Haley Stevens, member of Congress, a moderate in Michigan. When you put these together, I think what you see is that Democrats are broadly speaking a moderate party that wants, occasionally, to express its view, that it wants a tougher candidates, people who will be tougher on the status quo, tougher on the past, tougher on Trump. But you also have a party that desperately wants to win in the fall, and that's why Wisconsin was so, so interesting, because Francesco Hong, the progressive candidate, a member of DSA, was ahead in the polls all the way through, but she was ahead because the rest of the Democratic field was totally scattered. In a turn of events that was really very much like the 2020 presidential primary when Democrats realized that whatever doubts they had, Joe Biden, the moderate, was the candidate who could win the election against Trump, the more moderate candidate, and they rallied to him over a weekend. And David Crowley, dropped out of the race, came back in and voters over a period of about a week, realized that if they nominated Francesco Hong, she would probably lose the election. She did not help her cause when it did not help her cause when it came out that she had called for canceling Thanksgiving. And I think that became a kind of rallying cry in an odd way for Democrats who said, look, she may be a nice person, we may be pretty progressive, but we really need to win here. And I think the reassertion of the Democratic primary electorate's desire to win is something that we really should pay attention to when we look back at all of these primaries, because mostly the Democrats nominated electable candidates. Christian, you've looked at these primary results. And I think I'm paraphrasing you that you say the Democrats haven't escaped or missed their Tea Party moment, but it has been delayed. Yes, the team is still brewing, but the party invitations have not gone out quite yet. The Democratic Party right now is having a moment where its voter base wants the party to be more combative. It wants the party to fight harder. They are not interested in the establishment or the status quo. And there are a handful of issues on which they have moved a bit more to the left. They are not afraid of the word socialism. They are more openly saying, we want things like Medicare for all. And candidates who embrace those positions are able to get through Democratic primaries. And the size of the portion of the party that is what I would consider the loyal left, the progressive on cultural as well as economic issues. And my data has been growing over the last few years. However, what Democrats have working in their favor is that the median Democratic primary voter is not a 25 year old campus activist. It is a 55 year old African American woman who is quite eager to see the government do more to help the working class, but it's not necessarily on board with canceling Thanksgiving or the more unusual out there positions that some in the Democratic activist base would like to see more prevalent throughout the party. And so Democrats have in some ways been saved by their own voters right now. The bigger challenge though is what happens once Democrats have what is likely to be a very good 2026 midterm, what happens once you have a Speaker Hakim Jeff Raise if that's where this ends up. And you then have fights over how do you keep the government open? Those are the sorts of things that led to the Republican Tea Party move and it really accelerating and gaining steam. Were these fights about what do you do when you actually have to govern? And the realities of governing are much more challenging than the sorts of things you can say in a campaign speech on a stump about we're going to fight. I just want to say the problem I think with the Tea Party metaphor for what's happening in Democratic Party is twofold. One first of all Democrats have been arguing with each other about the direction of their party for a long long long time. They split up over the Vietnam War in 1968. Secondly, there is a big difference between I think the progressive Democrats broadly taking not just DSA, which actually a small part of the broader progressive movement Democrats in the Tea Party, progressive Democrats really want to get stuff done. And when Joe Biden was in power, they didn't like all the concessions they had to make to Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema to get some good stuff from their point of view through like the spending for green energy or infrastructure or the chips and science acts. They didn't like all those concessions, but they voted for the bill. They want to govern. And I wrote a column this week that argued that the left and center actually can learn from each other and in a way are learning from each other. Ranked file moderate Democrats are running with much tougher messages on the economy, on inequality, on monopoly, on oligarchy, on kleptocracy. They are being much tougher and more populist than they were in the past, partly because the left of the party has made some progress, but partly because that's where a lot of voters are right now. So I don't think it goes to that. I don't think those invitations will ever go out in quite the same way. We've been talking about Democrats. We shouldn't ignore the fact that the Republican nominee for governor of Wisconsin, Congressman Tom Tiffany, is a hardline election denier who can't paint against what he calls big government socialism. Kirsten are both parties moving to the extremes right now. I think it's important to define extremes. If you are thinking about extremes in terms of adherence to norms, I think the answer is probably yes on that front. That for a lot of Republicans, they are much more willing to abide behavior that would have been condemned in the past. I think on the Democratic side as well, this growing let's pack the court. Let's get rid of the filibuster that there is just more of an interest in I'd rather just see my side win norms be damned. I think Francesco Hanks said let's get rid of the Senate. Yes, which I would I would suggest is a quite extreme position, although granted she did not win her primary. But there's also the question of ideological extremism, which I think exists on a separate axis from this more temperamental or norms based approach. And on that rating, I don't actually think Republicans have become more ideologically extreme. In the Trump era, it's actually been unusual. He has gotten Republicans to agree to things that are far less pro free market, laissez-faire capitalist. I mean, the government now don't we own pieces of companies? You've had tariffs. I think the ideological assertion that Republicans have moved to the right, I think falls apart upon contact with what the actual Trump agenda has lived with that age. Not at all. I do think that these are ace. There is polarization in America, but it's asymmetric. But I want to make a point about this whole conversation we like to have on ideology. David Crowley, the man who won the Democratic nomination in Wisconsin for governor, he's a county executive, a very practical guy. And he gave a wonderful speech after he won the primary. And basically, he said, you know, most voters aren't thinking about this left versus right, progressive versus centralists, the staff inside or outside are thinking about health care, they're thinking about housing, they're thinking about prices, they're thinking about crime. And so I do think some of what we talk about here is imposed from the outside by analysts and people involved in these fights that have very little to do with how voters, most voters, not all voters. There are ideological voters, but most voters perceive what the election is actually about. And that's why I think by the time you get to Labor Day, the dissonance of the summer for Democrats is likely to give way. And if they're going to win the election, it better give way to more concrete conversations about the problems the country confronts in.
And the country's deep dissatisfaction with President Trump. I'd like to hear from both of you one measure, or maybe there are two measures of how extreme Democrats are, have Democrats accepted the notion that the security at the southern border is a success, and one that they would continue to pursue rather than stand for an open border. And second, is the Democratic Party now the party of Medicare for All, of single-payer health insurance? Those are good questions. First, the Democrats, most Democrats have never been for an open border, and what's happening at the southern border now actually started under President Biden. I think the problem is he started too late. He didn't respond to the anger over what looked like practically an open border. I think what you're seeing now is a much better chance that Democrats will say, look, we want border security too, but we do not want this kind of, you know, lawless behavior toward immigrants and toward people who are legally here and towards citizens. And so I think that the net result of the loss of the 2024 election to Trump on the border and Trump's lawlessness has opened up real room in the political system for something like a comprehensive solution immigration, because we know there are deep problems with this system. We also know that the United States needs immigrants, but we want it done lawfully. And I think that what you're going to see in the Democratic Party is an effort to come up with practical ways of solving the immigration problem. And I think you're hearing that on the campaign trail. I think this is an issue that really is going to divide Democrats in a serious way, especially if they have the opportunity to try to govern by taking one or both chambers of Congress. Just earlier this week, you know, with Peggy Flanagan winning for her primary in Minnesota, you know, Minnesota is obviously a state where the question of ISIS behavior on the ground is very, very fresh, very emotional, very tangible. And it's the sort of thing where, you know, I saw an interview where she was pressed on, do you support abolishing ICE? And she kind of hedged and said, I want to rip ice apart, but couldn't get pinned down on, do you want to get rid of this agency or do you simply want to reform it significantly? And I think that's going to be one of those questions where you do have a Democratic base that is enraged about what they are seeing the Trump administration do. But it's running counter to the electoral realities that voters do not love what they are seeing ICE doing, but do believe we need to enforce our immigration laws. And I think it's one of those issues that Republicans are pretty united around. But I think this is one that will divide the Democratic base much more significantly. The problem with the Republicans is with some exceptions, they haven't spoken up against what are true outrageous murders, literally murders in the enforcement of immigration. And what's ironic is that Trump has made abolish ICE a much more moderate position than it was two years ago, because when you say abolish ICE now, people don't hear, I want to get rid of immigration or enforcement, they hear, we can't have an agency that behaves like this. So again, I don't see that as the divide that it might have been even two years ago. One of the things that we've been doing at my polling firm is we've been tracking, asking Americans if we had five parties instead of just two. And we had something that looked a little bit more like a far-right party over in Europe that you've seen, whether it's the AFD or the reform party in the UK. How many voters would gravitate toward that party versus something that's a little more conventional conservative center right? And for a few years during the Biden presidency, we saw interest in that sort of further right anti-immigration, seal the border America first-type party rising. And as soon as 2025 comes along, the air starts getting let out of the balloon. And in some ways, it's as though the success at sealing the southern border and getting immigration under control has relieved the demand side for that kind of a politics and that kind of party. And so in my data, we see when you force Americans to make a choice, which would you rather prioritize border security or doing something to promote safe but legal immigration? The pendulum is not swung all the way back to the left on this issue. America still remains leaning to the right, but it's not nearly as stark as it was just two years ago. You know, I agree with a lot of that. But I think that with the Republican Party under control of Trump and the Republican Senate and House being so reluctant to take him on, it is taking on more of the character of a European far right party. I was in Denmark a couple years ago in this wonderful academic who studies and loves America said Trump has actually made American politics more European, which is not what you think the guy who promises to make America great again would like somebody saying, and yet I think that's true. Well, we do have democratic socialism on the rise as well, Jay. So, okay. Well, let's move on. This is a great week for us. Any week would be a great week for us to have you with us. But especially now because polling has been kind of strange in August. That's an understatement, just before the election, I'll say, had anywhere from about 10 to 19 points as a lead in the Michigan polls. In fact, his opponent, the more centrist representative, Ali Stevens, came within 1% of him. In Wisconsin, the democratic socialist, Francesca Hong, was leading in polling around 20 points ahead of David Crowley, and he eaked out a win by just under half a percent. What's wrong with the polls? Is it a feature of the primary season? How do you explain it? So there are two features that I think stick out to me when I look at these data. And I just want to say, I didn't poll in either of these races, so I don't have raw data sets. I bet you were really happy about that, but I understand that polling industry as a whole, an attack on one is an attack on all. I need to understand what went wrong there so that my polls don't make those same mistakes. Something that's fascinating in these results is actually both Abdullah Sayed and Francesca Hong, the share of the ballot that they ultimately received. It's actually pretty close to what the polls showed. And I don't say that as like a defense, because there's no half-read it. Oh, you got it half-right. But what I think it does indicate is that, for instance, in the Wisconsin governor's race. You had an awful lot of voters. In high-quality polls like the Marquette University poll saying, "We're undecided." You have a third of your sample saying you're undecided. There's a lot of different ways that this can go. And so I feel like in some ways, the vibes got out ahead of the data, that if you have polls showing that such a substantial portion of the electorate is undecided. In the end, it seems that all of them broke for Crowley, and that makes a pollster's job very hard. But if you have a quarter of the people pulled undecided, and yet one of the other candidates has a 15 or 20-point lead over the other, would that be publicized as too close to call? I wouldn't call it too close to call. I mean, I certainly think pollsters do not come out of this looking great. But I think that there's something interesting there in the, how much certainty can you have when you see a number that has that many undecideds in it? And are there things that pollsters ought to be doing to better understand those undecideds? I mean, I can give you an example from my own firm of where we got a race, half right, half wrong. In the Virginia governor's race last November, we did a poll in that state, found Abigail Spanberger was going to win and buy a large margin. We were one of the closest polls in that race. Yay, yay, yay, give yourself a gold star. But further down ballot, the very contentious race for Attorney General, where the Democratic candidate had quite a lot of baggage, Republicans thought, "Hey, maybe Jason Miaris can pull this off. We got that race wrong." Because all of the undecideds in our survey wound up breaking for Jones. And there was very little separation between the governor's race and the AG race, yes, for the, for the Democrat. And so, you know, even a pollster like me, we're trying our hardest to get it right when there's lots of voters who say they're undecided. Things can go sideways. First of all, I love your expression of old-fashioned solidarity that everybody has to stand together. I agree with a lot of what you said, actually. I think that one of the important things about Wisconsin is how wild that race was. People dropping in, coming out, you know, Crowley dropped out of the race and kind of had to be dragged back into the race by Tony Evers, the governor, Mandela Barnes, who was a popular figure in large parts of the party. He ended up dropping out of the race. So it was like polling in a mail strum. And the key thing, as Kristen said, is that what you clearly had were a whole lot of voters looking around to say, if I don't vote for her whom do I vote for, and they couldn't figure it out until the end when it really did come down more or less to a two-way race. And Michigan, I also think that, that Haley Stevens found her voice in the last week of the campaign to some degree when people started making fun of the way she talked. And she said, you know, when doing this, they're making fun of Michigan, you know, the cool kids online, which I thought was a great attack for somebody in her position. Some of them might be the coastal elites, making fun of how I talk. [BLANK_AUDIO]
real. They're making fun of Michigan. They're thinking they're better than us. And what they don't know is I am your voice. Having said all that, I think there is still there are questions posters want to ask about whether the candidate who looks like they have momentum and has more organization as both Hong did and else I had did. They have people more eager to answer polls than the people who are undecided or look warm. I think that's one question. I think the age split in polls is a real complexity now because, you know, historically older people were more likely to vote than younger people. You have something to go on on now where the electorate is getting younger on the whole. And there is a lot of energy in the younger part of the electorate. So I think there are some real systematic problems, but there were some very particular things about these races that led to this blow up. Some people claim that the polls are busted as a predictive tool. What really works is the predictions market where I guess the smart money is deemed to be smarter than the posters. Does this make any sense to you? So prediction markets, I think are interesting. I don't think of them as a replacement of polls. I see them as actually downstream of polls. And that's partly why the prediction markets were so high on the likelihood that Abdul Al-Sayed was going to win, which he ultimately did, but it was significantly closer than him having an 80-90% chance to win would indicate. Francesca Hong, on election night, these prediction markets just ping-ponged around like crazy with every little vote dump in a way that just didn't seem tethered to reality or rationality. So I'm not anti-prediction market for this sort of thing because as you noted, EJ, a poll is a snapshot in time. A poll tells you what things are now, but a prediction market can say, "Hey, actually, I have seen some other sign that I think means this candidate has momentum that's not being picked up, and I'm going to put my money where my mouth is." I think that's interesting, but ultimately, you don't want to have the vibes overtake the data, even if the data itself is flawed. And in many ways, these prediction markets are just, you know, it's garbage-in, garbage-out. If the polls people are using to make their bets or trades or whatever we're calling it are based on data that is systematically under-representing working class voters. Systematically over-representing. Do you check the prediction markets? I don't very often. I will in a situation where polling is actually very hard to come by because you're looking for additional signals, but it's something where I look at it with a very significant grain of salt. Because when a poll comes out, I know who did that poll, I know what their incentives are, I know what their methodology is, and I can decide for myself if I think that that's credible or not. On a prediction market, I don't know who's on which side of the trade or what their incentives are. Yeah, policy intervention, I think prediction markets should be regulated like gambling, and let's just face up to that. But I think the prediction markets depend significantly on the polling. And then, people mix their own secret sauce in with how they bet their money. And also, I think prediction markets reflect the biases that people involved in them, and that people tend to bet the team they want to win. And I don't think we figured out the impact of that. And a lot of smart people ruminating on all the data available can produce some sensible predictions. But I don't know what the prediction markets would do without polls. And I think that's the question that defenders of the prediction markets have to answer. Right. Well, let's turn to a couple of big newsmakers. In a moment, we'll ask you about your make of what Alexandra Casio Cortez is up to. But first, what President Trump is up to, the economic metrics are not so great. His efforts to get out of the war with Iran is not going swimmingly. And he doesn't seem to be overly preoccupied in policy making with those problems. What do you think he is focused on right now? He seems to be very focused on trying to convince America that he has been a better president than they think he has been. If we're not going to use the 2010 Tea Party election analogy anymore, then I think 2006 is actually a very instructive election when I think about what's happening politically right now. You had George W. Bush, who had been reelected, came in said, I have a lot of political capital. I'm going to do things my way. We're taking the governor off and tried to do things like reform social security. You had some contentious Supreme Court battles. Performment partially privatized in that case. Yes. Yes. Very unpopular proposal. Yes. Which again, was an popular proposal, though I might add, if it had been done, where would we be fiscally now? A question worth pondering. I won't step on that third rail right now. But in that midterm election, you had Republicans feeling jubilant. In much the same way that Donald Trump came back into the White House and Republicans thought we figured it out. Democrats are lost in the wilderness. It turns out that in that case, it was the Iraq war going quite poorly. It was the recovery from Hurricane Katrina that was viewed as disastrous. That wound up leading to Republicans going from feeling on top of the world to being thrown out and speaker Nancy Pelosi coming into Congress. This just feels very much like that. Republicans back 18 months ago feeling jubilant. We're going to do everything. We're going to do all the stuff we didn't get to do the first time around, feeling on top of the world and feeling like Democrats. Look, their favorables are in the trash. Nobody will vote for them. They very well may vote for them if they conclude that the party that's in power has been doing a poor job. But what is Trump doing about all this? Well, first of all, I hope you persuade every Republican candidate to run on privatizing social security. I think that is not my political advice. I think that Trump refuses to understand that you can't just keep saying the same thing and getting away with it. He's gotten away with so much over such a long period of time. He has escaped accountability because he's often dodged one scandal with a new scandal that none of them ever stocked, that he's not accustomed to a circumstance in which everything is sticking to him now. And everything is sticking to him now above all because of dissatisfaction about the economy. If you go back to Trump one, even with the pandemic, there was still a lot of feeling that Trump knew how to run the economy. His approval rating on the economy right before the pandemic hit was very high. And that helped him in 2024. The dissatisfaction with the economy is very bad. His obsession with all these building projects that have nothing to do with the lives of people in the Midwest or in any swing state in America. And his trying to slough off affordability is just an invented idea. He's doing everything to deny what he ought to be dealing with. And that's a real problem. But he does seem to be at this point in his second term very much involved with his past as a developer. He's developing a ballroom and security facility where there used to be the East Wing of the White House. The East Wing of the White House, the remains of it are a mound in a public golf course, which he also wants to turn into a PGA tournament quality high caliber, much more expensive to play golf course. He has talked about building an arch near the Memorial Bridge, which connects Washington to Arlington National Cemetery across the Potomac. That would be so huge. It would completely change what people see in Washington. He seems to be in intent on making the monuments to the Trump era happen now, while we're still in the Trump era. It's fascinating that during his first term, it felt like he spent a lot of time at Marlago. You know, it was that he didn't seem very focused on DC as a town that he wanted to conquer. He would say, "I want to drain this swamp," but did not really feel like it was a presidency of this town. He has now come back into his second term as, "I have conquered this town and I will make it my own." And you're right. It has begun to be the person who he has been in the public eye for decades. I'm a developer. I'm going to make things. Look the way I want them to look. You know, if you drive across the Memorial Bridge here in DC, which I drive across every time I go out to my office, there are these gold statues. And they've always been, you know, statues of these horses, but now they are a vibrant shade of gold. I see. Vibrant is understating. Yes, they are. They are. It is clear whose aesthetic sensibility is behind this. And you can imagine that there are lots of folks in Washington who they do not share the president's politics and they find a lot of this to be distasteful at best. However, one thing that he has done that was met with a lot of consternation at first was his deployment of the National Guard around town. And you will still see, you know, on that same drive where I'm going across the bridge, there's often a Humvee parked right there. You will see folks in the National Guard walking around town. It is true that crime in the district of Columbia has declined. It has declined in cities across
America is not unique to DC including cities where there aren't federal troops. Correct. But there has been just some great coverage this week of how it's actually starting to overwhelm the DC court system, the number of people who are being apprehended by the federal officials for things, you know, smoking marijuana and then they go to the car and they find that actually there's a gun and a knife. And this is now beginning to overwhelm the court system here, but it is also leading to safer, cleaner streets. I think the really disturbing thing about what Trump is doing with all of this building, some of it very ugly, is that he's treating public property as if it's his own property. I mean, at least when he was a builder in the old days, he may have stiffed the banks when he borrowed money from them, but at least it was private money going into a private project. He had no right to just knock down the ballroom unilaterally and you go all the way around and say, he's doing this as if he is a dictator. I mean, you know, I know that critics of Trump overuse the term dictator, but in this case, he's acting with no accountability. And that arch, I've talked to people who have folks buried at Arlington, secretary and one friend in particular, who made the point that there is something so awful about this enormous arch. When you look at those rows of headstones, they are all equal and they spend the tradition for some decades that whether you are a corporal or a general, you had equal headstones and we honor all of the people who served and suddenly to spoil that vista and what we are remembering there with this self-involved arch is just such, such an ugly thing. And I hope to God there's a way to stop that from happening before he leaves office. Let me move us on to our other political boldface name that I mentioned, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez. On a television interview recently, she dismissed some of the more extreme ideas of progressives during the COVID years as woke one. She quoted another progressive as saying woke one was crazy implying that at least AOC has reached woke two or some higher level of woke. I think that during lockdown, of course rhetoric in that time is not rhetoric that we would use today. She's also been the subject of a great deal of scrutiny after publicly documenting on Instagram the process of freezing her eggs to keep motherhood of possibility. What is AOC up to? Is this the beginning of a run for president? I certainly think it's a prelude to a run for president. I think that she has consistently been one of the saviour communicators on the democratic side. Even in this political cycle, she endorsed Abdul El-Sahed, but she refrained from endorsing both Graham Platner and Francesca Hong. So she has pretty good political instincts. I think she's always been a very good storyteller both about policy issues, but also about her own life. She has shared about that extensively. And I think this conversation about freezing her eggs, she has invited people to observe her personally, and that has become part of her brand, that she is an authentic person who is not just a political facade. She is letting you see the good and the bad. And whether that is true or whether other things are still concealed, I don't know that any of us are ever fully ourselves in public. Maybe you, E.J. But I think of her as a very savvy political operator, and I think her trying to distance herself from woke one is part of what E.J. mentioned earlier, which is that I do think Democrats are still a party that has leftward leanings, but I think understands it in many cases. They need to keep it locked down because it's not where the median voter is. I think she's smart enough to get that. The question is, I don't know that you can just say, "Huh, woke one. That was crazy. Let's all forget that. Republicans will not allow Democrats to just let go." Does the egg-freezing episode, E.J., is this a risk of too much information, or is that my advanced age speaking? I don't know. I'm a guy, so I'm not sure I am the best person to speak on this, but I'll risk saying something, which is I think she was talking about struggles that women face about how to balance their desire to have families and their careers. And I suspect there were a lot of people out there who heard that and said, "Yeah, we're struggling with that, too." And the fact also, that she was saying, I assume, made the great point that she's a person, and not just a politician, and she's thinking about things other than politics. I think that works more in her favor, but I don't know about that, but she's definitely running for higher office, whether the Senate or the presidency. And I think a lot of people came down on her for her woke one comment. And I think what she was saying, and she was pretty clear about this, is, you know, there were a lot of extreme things said, no one's saying defund the police anymore. You really got to search far and wide. You're not seeing it in any political campaign this year. You're seeing a lot of progressive Democrats, mayors, like Michelle Wu in Boston, bringing about how they brought murder rates down and other forms of crime down. And so I think Democrats are trying to figure out how can you have a more politically sustainable way of talking about marginalized people that doesn't use language that other people either don't understand or don't get or find a difficult to take. And I think this is not, this is about, don't give up the commitment to the marginalized, but boy did we express things back then in ways that really did hurt us politically. That's what she's saying, I think. I think the only other thing I'd add on the the AOC egg freezing conversation as the somewhat young-ish woman at the table is I can't help but think of this in in conversation with the announcement this week that Caroline Levitt is stepping down as White House press secretary. She had a baby very recently, her second child, she's a mother of two very young children, pretty much immediately after having her first return to the campaign trail with Donald Trump in 2024. And she has announced that she's going to be stepping away from that role because she'd like to spend more time with her young children. I do think that for a lot of young women, Caroline Levitt and AOC are quite different in many ways, but they are both women who are very much in the public eye in very high-pressure jobs, very openly and publicly grappling with the tensions between being someone who's a high-achieving woman in a career and how do you handle the realities of motherhood? And I just think that's a very interesting, you might not think of those two things as being similar, but I actually think of them both, I wish both of those women well on their journeys because these are very, very hard challenges that young women face. Amen, amen. Well, we've come to the end of our conversation, which we always conclude with something that's brought us joy in recent days or weeks. And EJ, let's start with you. What's something that's been joyful to you? So a couple of weeks ago, I walked into a wonderful book sale. And I want to praise the joy that book sales for public institutions can bring to people. It was at a high school for a public library. And I found so many wonderful books there. The book I quoted in my column this week by Edward Ayers, the great historian of the South, was a book I picked up. It's up at this book fair. And you see books you never knew existed. You see books you would always wanted to buy. And so I want to praise all the people who raid their own book collections and give the books away, both to bring joy to others. And this book fair brought joy to me and to support great public institutions. And it reminded me that I got to do that myself. Preston? So I am the mother of a four year old and a two year old. And the four year old in the last couple of weeks has begun to develop her own taste in a way that is somewhat reflective of her parents' taste. So for example, this past week, we were out and about. And a song by Queen was playing in a store. And it was another one bites the dust. And she asked for it to be added to her playlist in the car. So now my four year old has begun liking songs by Queen. And then my husband bought the graphic novel of the Hobbit and has begun reading her portions of that at night before she goes to bed. And she's begun asking about the Hobbit story. And so it's just fun to watch this little mind suddenly become old enough to where you're going beyond Daniel, Daniel Tiger and Bluey are phenomenal, but where she's beginning to express interest in things that my husband and I also like. That's just been an enormous source of joy. It's the greatest. Thanks for that. Joy from books this week. It was after a year of reading Thomas Mann, a friend that's suggested, I wanted something a lot lighter than that. And found in my Kindle, Washington Irving's History of New York, which is a very funny book. It's a send up of histories in which he begins with the solar system and the earth and the continents. And finally eventually he gets the Dutch going to know Amsterdam. It was originally published under pseudonym, D-Drift Nicarbocker. It became fabulously popular. Washington Irving was responsible for the use of Gotham to describe New York City, the phrase, the Almighty Dollar, and mostly popularizing Nicarbockers, who survived to this day in the form of the New York Nix. It's one of the last usages of a Nicarbocker back here in New York City.
It's a delightful book, anyway, it's great, you should look at it. E.J. and Kristen, it's terrific to see you both again, and great to be with you both. Thank you for having us. Take care. [BLANK_AUDIO]
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Democratic primaries show a party that is broadly progressive but electorally pragmatic, favoring moderate candidates who can win general elections, as seen in Wisconsin and Michigan.
The Democratic Party is not experiencing a Tea Party-style far-left shift; its base wants more combative politics but is moderated by voters like older African American women who prioritize electability.
Both parties show erosion of political norms, but ideological extremism differs
Polling surprises in primaries are attributed to high undecided voter numbers, late-breaking candidate shifts, and systematic issues like age representation, not necessarily broken polls.
Prediction markets are seen as downstream of polls and not reliable replacements, as they can reflect biases and lack transparency.
Trump's focus on personal monuments and D.C. development, along with economic dissatisfaction, mirrors pre-2006 conditions, suggesting potential Democratic gains in upcoming midterms.
AOC is positioning herself for higher office by distancing from past "woke" extremes and sharing personal stories like egg freezing, aiming for broader appeal.
Immigration remains a divisive issue for Democrats, balancing base anger with electoral realities favoring border security.
Summary:
The conversation analyzes recent Democratic primaries, revealing a party that is progressive but electorally pragmatic. In Wisconsin and Michigan, voters chose moderate candidates like David Crowley over progressive challengers like Francesca Hong, prioritizing winnability over ideology. This pattern suggests Democrats have not lurched far left, unlike a Tea Party moment, but are a broad progressive party tempered by a base that includes older, moderate voters.
Both parties show norm erosion, but Republicans have become less ideologically conservative under Trump, while Democrats balance leftward shifts with practical governance. Polling surprises are explained by high undecided rates and late shifts, not systemic failure, and prediction markets are viewed as supplementary, not superior, to polls. Trump's focus on personal projects and economic dissatisfaction evokes pre-2006 conditions, hinting at potential Democratic midterm gains.
AOC's distancing from past extremes and personal storytelling indicate presidential ambitions, while immigration remains a tricky issue for Democrats. Overall, the discussion highlights a political landscape where voters seek practical solutions over ideological purity, and both parties navigate internal tensions amid broader dissatisfaction with Trump's leadership.
FAQs
The primaries show that Democrats are not lurching far left or in a civil war, but are a broadly progressive party that also wants to win elections. They nominated moderate candidates in Wisconsin and progressive ones in Minnesota and Michigan, reflecting a desire for candidates who can beat Republicans.
Crowley won because voters, facing a large number of undecideds, ultimately rallied to the more moderate candidate to avoid nominating a democratic socialist who might lose the general election. His victory mirrored the 2020 dynamic where Democrats chose Joe Biden for electability.
She says Democrats haven't had their Tea Party moment yet, but it has been delayed. The party's base wants more combative candidates and has moved left on some issues, but the median primary voter is moderate, preventing extreme candidates from winning. The real challenge will come when Democrats must govern.
EJ argues the metaphor is flawed because Democrats have long debated internally and progressives want to govern, citing their support for Biden's bills despite concessions. Kristen sees it as delayed but possible, as governing fights could accelerate a Tea Party-like movement.
Yes, in terms of adherence to norms, both parties are more willing to abandon norms to win. However, ideologically, Republicans haven't moved further right under Trump, as he's pushed them toward less free-market policies, while Democrats have moved left on some issues like Medicare for All.
Polls were skewed by high numbers of undecided voters, who ultimately broke for the more moderate candidates. Additionally, enthusiasm among progressive supporters may have made them more likely to respond to polls, while prediction markets and unique race dynamics added uncertainty.
Chat with AI
Loading...
Pro features
Go deeper with this episode
Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.