Hon. Peter Bethlenfalvy: The Ontario Finance Minister’s Annual Pre-Budget Address

(upbeat music) There is a place, a place that belongs to all of us, a place with a beauty all its own, a place graced by the presence of trailblazers, from Winston Churchill to the Dalai Lama, Audrey Hepburn to Messiah Jerry and the Toronto Raptors, visionaries, leaders, artists, storytellers, athletes, those who come here, come here with purpose, with lifetimes packed full of experience and unique perspectives, not all were in history books, not everyone a household name, but every voice important. This is a place that has the power to connect us all, a place that leaves us inspired, stirred, and most importantly, thinking differently. It's the go-to place for conversations that matter. And while this place has no fixed address, it is here on this stage at this podium that our most valuable national resource lives, open dialogue. Join us here as we share the ideas that drive this nation forward. Join us in this place. Welcome to the club, the Empire Club of Canada. (upbeat music) (audience laughing) Good afternoon, everyone. Good afternoon. My name is Sarah Popeye, I'm the chair of the Board of Directors here at the Empire Club of Canada and your host for today's event. To formally begin, I'd like to acknowledge that we are gathering on the traditional and treaty lands of the Mississaugas of the Credit and the homelands of the Inashinabe, the Haudenosaunee, and the Wendat peoples. I encourage you all to learn more about the traditional territory on which you work and live. Now, today's event would not be possible without the generous support of our incredible sponsors. The Empire Club is a nonprofit organization and our sponsors generously support the club and make these events possible and complimentary for our online viewers to attend. So please join me in thanking our lead sponsors, HydeGro1 and Enbridge. Thank you. (audience applauding) Thank you to our VIP reception sponsors, the Ontario Road Billers Association, Burson, formerly Hillin Nolton, Canada Life, Ashallon Insurance, Fidelity Investments, Heidi Health, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Launa, Ontario Association of Medical Laboratories, Toronto Port Authority, Wine Growers of Ontario and Westinghouse. Thank you all. (audience applauding) And to our supporting sponsors today, CPA Ontario, F.P. Canada, Labat, Ontario Real Estate Association, Primary Care and TD Bank Group. Thank you. (audience applauding) We're also deeply appreciative of the ongoing support of our lead season sponsors, Bruce Power, HydeGro1 and National Bank Capital Markets and our VIP reception season sponsors, Ellis Don, McKinsey and Company, the Ontario Road Billers Association and Waste Connections of Canada. Thank you all. (audience applauding) And finally, thank you to our media partner, the Toronto Star and our AV partner, B-Spoke Audiovisual. Thank you. If you have a question for our speakers, please scan the QR code found on your program or through the Q&A function if you're online. Now, to begin the program for today, it's a real pleasure to once again host Minister Bethan Fawvey and his pre-budget tradition of speaking here at the Empire Club of Canada. And this is especially important, given the turbulent times that we are living through. I will add as well, this is the second largest attendance for this season just after the premiere of Ontario. So well done, minister. (audience applauding) There are over 800 leaders here from business, government, finance, labor, insurance, healthcare, and so many more. Gathered here at a moment where we need to be clear about Ontario's economic path. Thank you for being here and part of this discussion today. And while we all come from different sectors and backgrounds, I bet there's one thing we all have in common. We are united in our current sense of uncertainty, but we are all committed towards building a stronger and more resilient Ontario. (audience applauding) Thank you. (audience applauding) We are very fortunate to have steady leaders here in the province such as Minister Bethan Fawvey to help us navigate through this uncertainty. The minister has been clear that having a strong balance sheet will allow us to act quickly to protect our workers and communities while making investments in strategic priorities to unleash our economy and make Ontario the most competitive place in the G7 to invest, create jobs, and do business. We know that Ontario plays a central role in our country's economic future. And we also know that decisions made in the weeks ahead will shape how we attract investment, build infrastructure, power growth, and compete within the G7. Strengthening Ontario's competitiveness and economic resilience while protecting Ontarians from global turbulence is no easy task. That is why this year's pre-budget address which will provide early insights into the government's fiscal direction before the budget is tabled is so critical for the leaders here today. Now, before we begin, I want to acknowledge our lead sponsor, Hydro One. Hydro One powers communities and industries across Ontario. Its infrastructure underpin's growth, supports electrification, and enables the investment that keeps our province competitiveness competitive in a rapidly evolving global economy. It's now my great pleasure to invite David Lebiter, President CEO of Hydro One to offer opening remarks. David. (audience applauding) (upbeat music) - Good afternoon. And thank you for having me up here today. And it's sure, half of the Hydro One's 9500 employees I want to say it's a real honor to be lead sponsor today's event. And you'll notice I brought some notes up with me, but unfortunately it's too dark up here. I can't read them, so we're gonna have to read this one. So I'll try it buddy. (audience laughing) Gotta add some levity in here anyways. Going by memory here, let's see what we can pull together. So on behalf of the Hydro One's 9500 employees, we're really a pleasure to be here today representing the team. And as was already said, what Hydro One does is foundational to this province. We invest in electrical infrastructure, which is really the backbone of our economy. And today we're gonna hear from Peter Bethenfeldy, who's gonna give us some insights into Ontario's next budget. And that's a budget that will also set the backbone for the economy of Ontario and investment in Ontario. And as we saw in the quote that was put up by Peter, we want Ontario to be the place that the world chooses to invest. And in order to do that, to be that place that the world wants to invest, you have to have a solid foundation. And a solid foundation consists of infrastructure. Infrastructure such as what Hydro One owns and operates, transmission lines, distribution lines. Infrastructure such as roads, infrastructure such as healthcare, you need those basic foundations. And underpinning all of that, you need a strong financial system and balance sheet. And that is why at Hydro One, every dollar we spend, we take that very seriously, because we know what we are spending is money that comes out of our customers' pockets. And that is why our supply chain is over 90% Canadian sourced. Because by spending money in Canada, predominantly in Ontario, we're supporting jobs, well-paying jobs, and we're supporting families, and we know that's good for the economy. Now, Minister in Bethan Falvey's been the Minister of Finance since 2020, and part of his responsibility in that role is to ensure the province has a strong balance sheet. To ensure that the investments the province makes are supporting infrastructure, to support investment in this province. And I, like you, I am sure I'm looking forward to seeing what he's got planned for us for 2026 through to 2027, and how we are going to make this the best province in the G7 to invest. With that, let me introduce Minister Peter Bethan Falvey to the stage. [APPLAUSE] Thank you. (applause) Thank you. Thank you. That's a real honor to get that kind of reception. Last time I got that, that was in a room that had no chairs. (laughter) So they had to applaud. But you have chairs, so I'm very grateful for that. Thank you, all of you, for that great reception. Thank you, David, for those comments. Sorab as well. Thank you for your intro, Ken Emerson, and the whole Empire Club team. You do our remarkable job here. And you said I came number two in terms of the crowd size. We're told, "Never talk about crowd size." And I say to myself, "What a great crowd." (laughter) But thank you. It's a privilege to be here. I do want to also acknowledge some great colleagues who are in the room. I want to first acknowledge our great cabinet minister, Jill Dunlop, MPP. Please stand up, Jill. Let's see. (applause) Cabinet minister, emergency management, taking care of all of us. Thank you for what you do. I know my awesome, awesome, and I really mean awesome parliamentary assistant from England to the Lawrence. A lot of trials and tribulations in the writing and beyond. You're a steadfast leader in the community. You're a great parliamentary assistant to the minister of finance. Michelle Cooper. (applause) There you go. (applause) And last but not least, and I think she knows it's coming. The great my colleague, my friend, my friend who works together day and day out on the budget, we're throughout the whole year. A great president of the Trezue Board, MPP Caroline Murumi. (applause) So thank you, all of you, and any other colleague that's online and watching. Thank you for your great team presence and your support over the years. This is my sixth budget coming up, and let me tell you, it takes a team to put budgets together. And it's a full effort. I also want to thank MPP Bill Rosenberg, who is here. And I think you may be here, may not be here. I think you may have been caught in traffic. And no surprise it took me an hour to come down from Queen Smart to get here. It's true story. You know, down bass, university is closed, but I never mind. But I really do value coming here because it's important to bring together leaders who turn ideas into action. Ontario does not operate in isolation. Geopolitical forces that may have once felt distant now reach our doorstep. Trade pressures, supply chain disruptions and shifting markets are sending unpredictable shocks throughout economies everywhere. You know, the world has changed, and Ontario must be ready for what change may bring, even if that means being prepared for tougher times. We're already starting to see the impacts across the country. Other provinces so far this year have published record deficits while hiking taxes and cutting public sector jobs. Here in Ontario, we don't believe in raising taxes. And we will continue to build on our record of making money and making money. And we will continue to build on our record of making money and continue to build on our record of making life more affordable for people and businesses and support job growth while ensuring we deliver government programs and services efficiently and sustainably. That is why our economic and fiscal plan are articulated in our annual budget includes prudence and puts us in a strong position to weather economic shocks. Now they don't remove the bumps, but they do keep us on a secure road and course. Our plan protects Ontario today and builds the province we want tomorrow. As a government, we cannot eliminate uncertainty, but we can mitigate risks with responsible, balanced fiscal approach that supports public services and infrastructure while maintaining flexibility. That is just what we are doing. We're doing whatever we can to great jobs and grow our economy. And this allows us to keep investing in healthcare, education, and the public goods that support our quality of life and boost our competitiveness. And despite global headwinds, Ontario's economy showed resilience in 2025. Real GDP grew by 1.2% in 2025, higher than forecasted in last year's budget, reflecting the hard work of people and businesses and many of you here in this room and across the province. But we remain clear-eyed. Growth is uneven. The outlook is uncertain. Recent job trends show many still feel the pressure. And that is exactly why a pragmatic steady plan matters. From a fiscal perspective, stability matters. And as we near the end of the 25-26 fiscal year, Ontario's third quarter finances released last month show our plan is working. Many key projections outperform the target set in November's fall economic statement. We had stronger than expected revenues. And Ontario's net debt to GDP ratio was tracking at nearly a full percentage point lower than projections just one year ago. But yeah, that's a good little whistle there. I'll take that. (Applause) Borrowing and cost remain stable at 4% and Ontario has already completed required borrowing for this year as well as pre-borrowing for next year to reduce financial market risk. Our projected deficits stood at 13.4 billion in improvement over the fall outlook. And for the first time in almost 20 years, Ontario received two credit rating upgrades and maintained AA ratings across all four major credit rating agencies. (Applause) But you know, these are not endpoints in themselves. They can be seen as signals that we have fiscal discipline. And fiscal discipline protects our capacity to invest where it counts and navigate uncertainty. The upcoming 20-26 Ontario budget will include updates on Ontario's economic and fiscal matters. Today, I want to outline the priorities shaping our plan as we look ahead to the next fiscal year. First, productivity and innovation. Ontario's long-term prosperity depends on increasing our capital and our output per worker and per dollar. That means accelerating technology adoption, attracting private investment and commercializing Ontario-made research. We are supporting growth in AI, advanced manufacturing, energy, life sciences, defense, construction, and security technologies and critical minerals. Anchored by world-class research institutions and supply chains stretching from the ring of fire to our innovation corridors. And our goal is simple. Turn ideas into investment and investment into jobs and exports. Second, a predictable competitive business environment. We know that businesses invest boldly when rules are clear and timetables are reliable. So as a government, we are doing our part. By cutting red tape, speeding up approvals for major projects and reducing inter-provincial barriers so firms can better access markets across Canada. In fact, just this month, our government signed a first-of-a-kind agreement with Nova Scotia to allow consumers to purchase alcohol directly from producers. This will give consumers greater choice and convenience while creating more opportunity for producers right here in Ontario. [Applause] Because this underscores our commitment to inter-provincial trade by demonstrating leadership and our resolve to knocking down barriers. And our upcoming budget will include further competitiveness measures for businesses so that they continue to invest here in Ontario. Third, infrastructure and housing. Ontario is delivering the most ambitious, capable plan in its history, building highways, transit, and community infrastructure to keep goods moving and people working. These investment support population growth, they raise productivity, and they strengthen our communities. Our housing, where we are accelerating approvals, which enable essential water and service infrastructure to be built, and aligning investments where homes can be built. Because a functioning housing market is a competitiveness strategy that helps attract and keep construction jobs while boosting affordability and growing our economy. Fourth, trade and competitiveness. US tariffs have disrupted supply chains and created uncertainty. Ontario is helping affected businesses diversify and expand trade within Canada and globally. This is why we are investing millions to increase resilience, build capacity, and reshore critical supply chains to Ontario. Fifth, talent in the workforce. People power prosperity. There's no question about that. And that's why we're investing across the entire talent and workforce pipeline from required tech courses in high school to more post-secondary seats in STEM, health care, teacher education, and skilled trades. And this year, just a few weeks ago, we made a historic $6.4 billion investment over four years to support Ontario's colleges, universities, and indigenous institutions on top of the five billion. I'm pretty sure Steve Orsini, the head of the university, started that applause. Yes, he agrees. On top of the five billion we invest every year to ensure our students can get the skills they need to launch good paying in demand careers. And we are making provincial and Canadian credential recognition faster and creating retraining options for mid-career workers. And finally, sixth, reliable, affordable, clean energy. Ontario's energy system is a massive competitive advantage. The first of four small, modulated reactors at the Darlington nuclear station is now under construction. If you're ever out that way, take a look. It's amazing what's happening out in Darlington. This is a world-leading project delivering emissions-free, dependable power, and thousands of supply chain jobs. And we're also strengthening our EV and battery manufacturing ecosystem, positioning Ontario as a global hub for next-generation technology and mobility. Across all these themes, we are locking the ring of fire, strengthening domestic supply chains, accelerating northern infrastructure, and preparing to seize emerging opportunities such as Toronto's bid for the defense security and resilience bank headquarters. And so I return to my central message. Our plan is working. It is cautious where it needs, it must be, and ambitious where it should be. It protects people and services today, ensuring government programs are delivered efficiently and sustainably. This is how a government builds the foundations for higher productivity and stronger growth. And it preserves the flexibility required in a world where shocks can arise without warning. And I welcome all of you to tune in to hear more about our plan when I table the 2026 budget on Thursday, March 26th. Ladies and gentlemen, the choice ahead is clear. We will protect our economy, strengthen competitiveness, and invest in the sectors that define the future, from AI and advanced manufacturing, to clean energy, life sciences, critical minerals, and beyond. We will protect our economy, strengthen competitiveness and invest in sectors that define the future. We will continue to build the infrastructure that supports growth, homes that are welcoming, and skills that yield opportunities. We will manage finances responsibly. So Ontario remains resilient and self-reliant. Now we all have a role to play, government, business workers, educators, and community leaders. And with the same spirit of partnership that has carried Ontario through past challenges, we will not only adapt to change, we will lead it. Thank you for your leadership, your partnership, and your commitment to building Ontario's future. Thank you for being here. Thank you, everyone. Thank you so much, Minister. The dates set, cats out of the bag, we are all going to be looking forward to the budget on the 26th. We appreciate the preview and certainly the opportunity to reflect on the budget ahead. And of course, we appreciate your steady leadership over the past many years. I think you are the second longest serving finance minister in the Federation. That is also fantastic to me. Now we are fortunate to have a great moderator and also leader in his own right. Someone who knows how to draw out insight and is never shy about asking the question everybody else is thinking. David Hurley is co-founder of Air Quotes Media, the host of the Curse of Politics, one damn good podcast, and the Hurley Burley podcast as well, and a partner at Rubicon Strategy. He has spent decades immersed in Canadian politics, advising leaders, and shaping campaigns. David, thank you for being here. I invite you to join the stage. I got to say, David, you must be a little, I'm uncomfortable sitting a little left of you, but you must be really uncomfortable sitting to the right of me. Well, you know, I used to balance budgets. I will say, though, how many credit upgrades did you get when you were in the Ontario Government? This is a great opportunity. Thanks for asking me to do this because I had the opportunity to know you before you got into politics. It is always great to see somebody of your caliber go into politics. As was kind of mentioned, you have been doing it for eight years now. How do you like it? That is great. It was an opportunity. You know, my story, some of you have heard it before. I'm the son of two Hungarian refugees who came, I guess, in '51. There are boats with nothing but the shirt on their backs coming to this country. Canada gave them five bucks and gave them the opportunity. They didn't want to hand out. They wanted an opportunity. My dad worked in the farms in Ontario. He got supported by the community to have a job at Hyder One of all places. At night, he went to U of T during the day. He didn't speak a word of English. He had only one set of clothes. He actually showered in his clothes to wash his clothes. My mother, as well, came from with her family from World War II, left in '44, arrived here. Canada gave them a great opportunity to build a life, to have a career, to get educated, to have a job. I grew up in that, you know, hearing the stories about what it was like behind the air in Kurn. So what a great opportunity and a privilege to hold this seat and try to work on Ontario and Canada, leave it a little bit better for the next generation because that's what Canada did for my parents. Yeah, looks like it. [Applause] Chew up and much for y'all. What's that? Chew up and much for y'all. Yeah, hard core Quebecer. Yeah. I was wearing a Quebecer Nordic hat the other day. I was going to say the haps are pretty good this year. You know, it's really cool to see, you know, who remembers the Quebec Nordics. You can now age yourself. So I wear that hat and let me tell you not too many people recognize the Quebec Nordic hat. So that makes me pretty old, I guess. Right. Beware the Nordics fan. It'd be a separatist being Nordics. We hate it. We hate it. We hated the Nordics. [Laughter] Yeah, good point. I don't know why I'm wearing there, huh? [Laughter] But I just had a friend who had a Montreal Canadian tie. I know you're a big haps fan. I know this will probably kill the mood in the room. I continue to be a big haps fan. [Applause] That said, I really want the Leafs to win. It's just too long since '67. So go Leafs. It's not the Leafs, the other Canadian teams. I'm a total Canadian Patriot. Yeah. The Leafs are not going to win. [Laughter] Right. I hope the other projections are based on more solid information. [Laughter] I would like to start this conversation sort of at 30,000 feet because we're at a really, you know, interesting as the Chinese would say time. And so much seems to be influx about our economy. There's obviously the immediate change in the relationship with the United States and that. But there's also, you know, you talked about AI. That feels like that's going to be a massive change. There's unsettling things around the world. Climate change hasn't gone anywhere. All these pressures are coming to bear on the Ontario economy. And I just like you to talk a little bit about how you see the economy in the near term. And I'm kind of taken by the fact that Stephen Harper talks about fighting the Americans as if that's going to cost us something. But nobody active in politics wants to talk about that as if it's going to cost us something. Yeah. Look, I think our relationship with the US is going to continue. it's going to be a robust relationship. by force of geography, history, culture, language, our largest trading partner, few bumps in the road, but we go through that from time to time. And I would say some of our capital markets colleagues are here. We issued 30-year bonds in Europe this year, twice. European investors, global investors, in European currency, Euro, are investing in Ontario for 30 years. They're looking at the long game. And why do they do that? They look at Ontario and Canada as a sea of stability. Our brand is incredibly strong around the world. And the rule of law, the stability, the opportunity, the talent that we have, the culture that I talked about, welcoming people from all over the world, is really what differentiates Canada, I think, and makes us one of the greatest country in the world. And I say that-- [APPLAUSE] I say that with great humility, because it's not so much what's happening to us with regard our trade negotiations. We'll get through it. We'll end a good deal. We've fully supported the federal government in that regard. We've got some great people, Dominic Leblanc, Janice Chourette, big fan of hers, and Mark Weissman as well. We've got a great team. We're going to support them. But I say focus on the things you can focus on in your own backyard. So you will probably get into it. But I mentioned alcohol. It's a little thing being able to buy Nova Scotia wines or buy from the great wine growers here in Ontario if you live in Nova Scotia. Why not let them the trade freely? The IMF said it was a 9% tariff rate between provinces. The equivalent of 9%. But the US, it's 5.6%. Let's do what we can control in our own house. Let's break down those barriers. Let's innovate. Let's compete. Let's open up our markets. That's something we can do without even having one mention of the United States. OK, just to be a dog with a bone for a second though. I do-- That's what I often think of you. [LAUGHTER] I do have the impression that, basically ever since 1990, the pitch to investors to Ontario has been come here. We have a stable society with the rule of law that's a lovely place to live. We have a highly educated and diverse workforce. And we have tariff free access to the United States. So if you take that third leg away, what replaces it? Why will investors still see Ontario as an attractive place to come? Why do they think it's an attractive place to come? Just look at the investments that are coming. They want to grow. They're not doing-- they have interest. They see opportunity. We see our population grow by 2 million since we came in in 2018. We're going to continue to welcome people. Markets are growing. We're very focused on being more productive. We found a AI in Toronto and in Ontario and in Canada. We have a leadership role to play there, but we're letting it fit her away. I think some degree-- maybe we're a little complacent-- over the last couple of decades. My wish-- and I think we'll have more to say about this-- is that we can support that great, for example, research that comes out of our universities and the talent, the entrepreneurs that create through creating intellectual property. Once they get a market-world product, US investors come in and they sweep in with a big check. And the next thing you know, the IP goes south of the border. The talent goes with it. They introduce them to all their global clients. We should be doing that right here in Ontario. We need to support those academic research institutions, the entrepreneurs who take those ideas and try to commercialize it and scale it up right here in Ontario. So I think the world is changing. I think it's really fundamental that we just don't talk about. We've been talking about that for 20 years. That we should take advantage of that research here. AI is a great example. Another would be Ring of Fire. Now you would remember probably a couple of decades ago talking about Ring of Fire. I would love it. Is there a road? The road? He's just telling me there's a road. The road? All I ask for is a road. We promised it so many times anyway. Your wish is my command. We are putting shovels in the ground. Just last week, Premier Ford and our colleague-- Not much to ask for a road. And they just announced that the shovels are going in the ground, accelerated by five years, starting this spring. So spring's right around the corner. [APPLAUSE] Time for talk is over. Time for action is now. OK. So there was a lengthy period of time. I would say the '80s right through the early 2000s, where neoliberalism was the thinking of the day. And industrial strategy was a very, very bad word. And government's job was to get the fundamentals right and let business do its thing. Laterally in the last couple of years, it seems like industrial strategies back. And it certainly seems like the federal government is pursuing one. And when I hear you talk, it certainly sounds to me like you think government has some active role to play. What is the role of government in today's economy? You know, I love working with Caroline Mulroney. One of the reasons is because I was such a big fan of Brian Mulroney. He was the one that had the leadership and the vision to put the free trade agreement together, along with my political mentor, Michael Wilson. And folks, I'm old enough to have worked on those campaigns, worked on those elections you probably did too, David. And not only did I support free trade to your point, but there was a lot of privatization of government assets. Fast forward 40 years. And as you say, here I'm a champion of using government balance sheet to kind of crowd in investors and invest in Canadian companies use our advantages here to kind of protect our interests by buying Ontario, by buying Canada, which goes against really what got me into politics all those years ago. But here's the thing, as the prime minister said, you know, it's not the world we wish for. It's the world that we're in. So that's how I think we just have to be pragmatic. And we have to trade with each other, inter-provincial trade. We have to get permits done faster. We just announced a whole bunch of one permit, one process, Canada, Nickel, Frontier lithium. I think Ken Ross with a gold mine used to be 15 years to get a shovel in the ground. I think the world has changed, David. And so we have to adapt to that world right now. Right. You mentioned caronies. I just want to take a slight diversion. This is a fun parlor trick. I don't want you to throw anybody under the bus. But what's the difference in dealing with the carony government from the true dog government? [LAUGHTER] The wheels on the bus go red. [LAUGHTER] You know, I've known the prime minister for a long time. And he's a serious person. And I think he's focused on our economic prosperity. He's focused on the types of things working together. I've often said here on this stage, it's my seventh time to the Empire Club. Thank you. Yeah, thank you. [APPLAUSE] And I've often said in those speeches, David, sometimes the province feels we're in a rowboat. We're rowing one way. And the federal government, the previous one, was rowing in a different direction. I feel now we were rowing in the same direction. You have a much better shot, even if the waters are chopped of getting to where you're going if you're rowing in the same direction. And I don't just mean the federal government. I mean first nations, municipal governments, provincial governments, regional governments. Got my good friend, Kevin Ashes here, the mayor of Pickering, is also a regional counselor. You know, working together, poor you can get so much more done. And I really feel that's a big change from the previous regime. OK, cool. Now I do want you to throw somebody under the bus. And that is on this whole free trade within Canada thing, right? This feels like a broken promise to me. Certainly on behalf of the prime minister, but maybe on behalf of all the governments, because we were promised this last summer that there would be free trade in Canada by last summer. And it feels to me, like if we can't do that thing in the face of the Trump threat, that don't really have a ton of confidence in our ability to go to the mattresses with these people. So who is responsible for the problem here? Like, why can't we get this done? Well, we are getting it done. And I'll give you an example. They're Canadian Free Trade Agreement that was signed in 2017. It's about this big. The exemptions were proud this high. So Ontario said we passed legislation and said, we are going to get rid of every single exemption. So that takes some courage to just say, no, they're gone. They're done. Other provinces have to participate. So we use our leadership and our path to say, we're doing it. Why don't you do it? Look at Nova Scotia. They're a great partner. They're doing the same thing. They're leading. Stay tuned. There's a lot more that we're going to be announcing. Labor, the mutual recognition of credentials. That's being worked through. As the premier says, we got to go faster, quicker, and immediate. We certainly, in Ontario, we can't force everyone across the country to do that, but we can certainly set the tone. Yeah, you're a leader at that table. And a leader at that table says, we're going to get rid of everything. We will recognize. your credentials from BC to PEI. You can come work here and get that recognition. We're gonna, the standards instead of having to change the tires at the border in a truck, we're gonna say your tires are okay. We're gonna say if you wanna sell at your Nova Scotia wines directly to Ontario consumers, you can do that. So we are doing it. It's happening. Would we like to go faster, quicker, immediate? Absolutely, but Ontario's definitely there and the rest of the country's following. Right. You mentioned in your remarks the importance of fiscal responsibility and fiscal guardrails. But you also mentioned that jurisdictions can are producing astonishing deficit numbers, including at the federal level, but other provinces as well. And then around the world, but you look at the United States, if you look at Europe, there doesn't seem to me nearly the focus on balanced budgets and fiscal management that there was even a few years ago. It really seems like the lid's been blown off this and I'm wondering, given your background in the rating business, even before you got into this, is the way the world is looking at government financing and deficits different than it was 10 years ago? Oh, very much so. It concerns me. I mean, you know, math will catch up with every country if you're not watching your balance sheet, your deficits. Look at the US right now. Their deficit is 5.8% of GDP. I mean, you know, that's, that is an unsustainable number. If you look at in Canada, you're right. BC just did a deficit over 13 billion. I mean, we're three times the size of BC. So that means our deficit should be how big did it? 40. 40 billion. It's not gonna be 40 billion. There's your news on Tariot deficit less than 40 billion. (audience laughing) Breaking news, breaking news. I sure hope not. I think it matters. I think it really matters. What is our two credit rating upgrades? You name me a jurisdiction that has in the last of the while got credit rating upgrades. You'd be hard pressed. BC's been downgraded to the provinces, every single province. But the recent agencies are not killing these governments either. They're not upgrading them, but they're not, they're not saying, hey, you know, BC's a junk bond now. No, but it builds over time and you gotta be careful. And it impacts your borrowing costs. So I mentioned the 30 year, year-o-ontario bond that we've done. We have the tightest borrowing costs for those capital markets, people in the folks that are spread to treasuries is the lowest of any province in Canada for 30 years. What does that mean? That means we're paying less to bondholders. What does that mean? I think our Q3 was about six cents on the dollar. You remember, you know, when it was 30, 33 cents, 35 cents, it catches up to you. You know, you gotta be careful. And markets, if they feel that you've gone too far, they will punish you. And we saw in the UK a couple of years back when their budget was incredible. And investors ran away from the UK, cost the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister their jobs. So you ignored that, your peril. Right. It feels to me like one of the toughest things in government to do right now is the affordability crisis that people are feeling at home. I mean, governments are Canada are all rightfully seized with the external challenges and the structural changes that need to have happen. But it also does appear that this K-shaped recovery is a real thing. And that there are a lot more people than used to be the case that are really having a tough go of affording the basics life. We are-- my own polling is showing a dramatic increase in the number of people that consider themselves food insecure, for example. So what are the tools you have? Well, this is why it's really important to be fiscally responsible. A Finance Minister has won and are in his or her wallet. But it also has a hand on his or her heart. I think it's very important that we take care of the most vulnerable in society. That's why, for example, we indexed Ontario Disability Support Payments to inflation. First time in any government has ever done that in Ontario. [APPLAUSE] For low-income seniors, we not only expanded the amount of people that can qualify for the guaranteed annual income system supplement for low-income seniors, but we indexed that to inflation as well, because that's the right thing to do. When you're fiscally responsible, you can do that. I'm very glad that we very early on cut gas tax. So that we put money more in people's pockets and businesses as they go about their day-to-day lives and their jobs. And I think the other thing is that the best antidote, ultimately for society, is to make sure that we lay the conditions in place for growing economy, a productive economy. And that's why we've also lowered taxes. More taxes. The three budgets that have come out so far, BC, Alberta, and Nova Scotia, what do they have in common? - Ruiz taxes. - They all three of them, Ruiz taxes. That doesn't help consumers, individuals-- - Does that help? - Is it a test? - Was that a test? - Yes, I'm always being tested, you know? - Yeah, but you answered it right. And two of them announced public service cuts, 15,000 public service cuts. I don't think you can cut your way to prosperity. I've never felt that way. You've got to be a steward of the taxpayers' money. And you've got to put the conditions in place for economic growth and productivity. My speech had a lot to do with putting in the conditions to really give workers the tools to support our education system, the retraining and re-skilling of our workers, that the tax rates lower, so capital and the risk takers can invest in this province that go along with all the other things you mentioned earlier about stability and rule of law and all the things that people here in Canada appreciate around the world, really treasure about Canada. - You want to listen to you talk about how you can't get to prosperity by slashing the public service. I was thinking about how happy I am that you didn't run the 2014 PC campaign in Ontario. (laughing) - The inside joke. - Couldn't help yourself. - I know I couldn't help myself. But. - You don't want to talk about 2018, do you? - Yes, you know, I spend a lot of time talking about 2018. Most of it to myself, late night, over rum. - You mean some you lose something? - I want to talk, I do want to talk about productivity and innovation, which was your lead item for your priorities for the budget. And it has been identified as a problem in Canada for a long time. It's a bit of a mystery. It seems to me in some circles why productivity in Canada trails that of other jurisdictions. People have different theories of a branch plans or all kinds of different things. But essentially, what do you think is the key to unlocking? I mean, even currently talked about dead money on Canadian balance sheets years ago. What is the key to unlocking investment in the Canadian business? - Here's the key to unlocking productivity. There is no one key. - Okay. - There's multiple keys. And I've been thinking about this and working on both Wall Street and Bay Street for my whole career. And it's a whole series of things. It's making sure tax rates are low on competitive. It's making sure our regulatory environment is such that we can get the yes or no much quicker. We limit the paperwork, it permitting, faster permitting. It's about making sure we have investments in talent and not just earlier on. We're investing so much as when I go to high school, you probably have kids in high school. I've gone through a lot of the shop classes. You'd be blown away what's happening in our shop classes to train welders, to train millerites, to train crane operators, they're using simulators. And by the way, we've got a massive aging population. You and Iron and that cohort of the baby boom that are going to be retiring very soon. So we've got to keep investing in talent is a big thing. Population growth is flattened right now. So how do you encourage to make sure that we are the best equipped people? There's going to be more jobs than people. So the productivity has to raise. So it's not just one thing. I think government can play a role though in encouraging innovation, competition. We're doing that in a lot of industries. We're encouraging that. And I think that that's part of the solution. But there's no one key. There are some elements of the business community that are really pushing hard for a significant reduction in corporate taxes. What do you think about that? I think whenever you put more money back in people's pockets, we've cut personal income taxes for the lowest income tax back at the lowest in Canada, right here in Ontario. We've cut manufacturing tucks. We've cut small business tax. We've cut manufacturing tax. We've cut gas tax. We've cut HST. Do you want me to keep going? We've cut HST tax. I mean, there's so many. We just believe fundamentally that if we put it in your pocket, you'll spend it wisely. We put in businesses' pockets. They're going to reinvest in their people, in their technology, in their plant, [BLANK_AUDIO] future and government, we've got to be competitive. And so that's the way I view taxes, they should be coming wherever possible. And again, that's why it's so important to be fiscally responsible. You can't cut taxes if you've got massive deficits. If you have no path to balance, if you can't get credit rating upgrades, it really makes it challenging to cut taxes to compete that way. And that's why three of the three budgets that have come out so far have raised taxes. Right, right. All right, I think I should ask you a question from the floor. Otherwise, I won't have done my job well. So you recently provided multi-year funding to post-secondary institutes. There's a benefit to that multi-year funding certainty, or are you considering something similar for other public sector institutions? Well, we certainly felt that it was very important to support our colleges and universities. I think we've done it the right way in the sense that without a sustainable college and universities, students won't have a college or university to go to. So that was paramount. And don't forget, some of the changes at the federal level, impact how many international students and that's changed. So we have to adapt to the world we're in. Yeah, I think that we're continuing to look at ways that we can make funding sustainable, continue our track record of putting in investments into areas like healthcare, like education, like post-secondary education. Okay. Maybe I'll close on healthcare because you mentioned it. And you've just, you know, I know how much of your budget it sucks up. And I know that you've brought in Jane Phil Pot to try to figure this out. But to be honest, people still have the same complaints about healthcare that they had five, 10 years ago, hallway medicine, tough situation in ERs, difficult to get a, difficult to get a personal physician, et cetera. Why is this public policy problem so difficult? It's been around forever. It's nothing new. And, you know, but that doesn't mean that we don't continue to strive, investing more, investing wisely, supporting the sector. There's a bit of self-interest in there. Our mandate is to take care of everybody, regardless of a background. That's our social compact we have in Canada. I will say this. First thing I would say is that we have an incredible healthcare system. And it's in part largely due to the great healthcare workers we have. Have you ever met? Yeah. [ Applause ] Hunter, we've all had interactions with our healthcare system. You see the compassion and the work ethic and the empathy from a nurse, from a personal support worker to a family doctor to a specialist, incredible human beings. And we're going to continue to support them in every way we can. The second thing is, as the finance minister, we've increased the funding to historic proportions. When we took over is about $60 billion. Now it's a little over 90 billion. So that's a 50% increase over seven years. That's a huge increase. And we're going to continue doing that in strategic areas like you mentioned primary care. We're actually leading the country in attachments to a family doctor at 88% along with Manitoba. But don't tell that to the 12% of people who can't get a family doctor. That's why you mentioned Jane Philpott. We put in $2 billion on a plan to attach every single enter into a family doctor. We've already put out two applications for family health teams that's increased it by 800,000 people. So we're well on our way. Home care. Who doesn't want to age at home? I know it's just about everyone I meet. If we can bring the system and transform it to coming to take care of you at home, that's part of the strategy going forward. And I often say the answer from our crayons, because it's often, or the criticism is, well, minister, just throw more money at it. Folks, that isn't the only answer. The answer has to be you have to provide solutions and ideas, transform your healthcare system, think outside the box. So I'm challenging every healthcare, the system administrators to come up with ideas so that more money can go to our frontline healthcare workers and more money than is supporting the patients that we take care of across Ontario. Terrific. Minister, thank you. Well, I have one more thing. Oh, yeah, what's that? Yeah, they asked me, is there anything you think is going to ask you about the building Ontario Fund? Do you know what the building Ontario Fund is? Not enough. Okay. Good answer. You're a pro. And first off, I want to thank you, David, for doing this. You do a remarkable job. You're just a little bit ideologically misguided, but I'm working on it. You're really a good guy. And you do a great job on your podcast. And anyone who hasn't listened to the early Berlior or the Curse of Politics, I highly encourage you to because they talk about issues that matter to all Canadians, regardless of stripe. I did want to mention the building Ontario Fund because it's something we thought outside the box a couple of years ago to set up what our version of an infrastructure bank was. And about 15 months ago, we set it up. And so far, we've done transactions. It's our bank that will allow us to do more infrastructure investments that otherwise wouldn't get done without the help of government and kind of like the Canadian infrastructure bank, but better. And so far, we've done the small modular reactor. It was a billion dollars to the building Ontario Fund. The federal government put in two billion. So that's one trend. We built the Recuy Center. Peter Recuy, 13 years trying to get financing to build a long-term care facility down by the distillery district. The building Ontario Fund provided funding that allowed that to get the financing necessary to build almost 300 long-term care beds. Toronto, much appalten University trying to get student housing. The building Ontario Fund showed up and helped them get a deal past the finish line for 1400 new student residences. There's someone from the TMU. You're looking for a room. I know a guy. That's more than double what they have. So that helps. And I'll just end there's another transaction that we're going to announce really soon. It's going to help move our province forward, get more built faster than otherwise would. So some of the things we're thinking outside the box to build Ontario, to grow our economy, to get our workers the best opportunities possible and really be able to then afford our world-class healthcare, education system, social services. The minister between COVID and Trump, I think this job has been probably a lot different than you thought it would be when you got into it. But you're very safe hands. Thank you for doing it. Appreciate it. Thank you very much. Thank you so much. [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] Thank you so much, minister, for your remarks. And David, for guiding such a thoughtful and timely conversation with your usual wit and humor, we all look forward to the finer details of the budget on March 26th. Please join me again in thanking both of them. [Applause] [Applause] Now, before we close, I'd like to recognize our lead sponsor for our closing remarks. Enbridge plays a vital role in powering homes, businesses, and communities across North America. Energy is front and center in public policy right now. Affordability, reliability, sustainability, and security are part of the everyday conversation in boardrooms, legislatures, and around the kitchen tables. As our province works to drive growth while keeping energy dependable and responsible companies that build and operate critical infrastructure are central to making that balance possible. It's now my pleasure to invite Michelle George, Senior Vice President, Chief Transition Officer at Enbridge Inc. to offer closing remarks. Michelle. [Applause] [Music] Thanks very much. I learned from you, David, and brought my iPad, so the lighting is here, so I have my remarks. So thanks very much on behalf of Enbridge. Thank you so much to the Empire Club of Canada for hosting yet another thoughtful and timely conversation. Minister Bethlyn Falky, thank you for your remarks and for sharing your perspective on innovation and productivity, on stability and competitiveness, and also of course on energy and infrastructure, as Ontario prepares for the 2026 budget. And David, thanks again for your guiding, such a substantive and engaging discussion as always. For more than 175 years, Enbridge's gas distribution routes have been part of Ontario's story. Every day we help keep homes warm, support manufacturers, power farms and greenhouses, and enable the movement of people and goods across North America. As Ontario works to protect its economic strength, amid global uncertainty, the focus on building, unlocking growth, cutting red tape, and getting shovels in the ground has never been more important. Things like today's help all of us think critically about how to strengthen the province's resilience, and ensure Ontario remains one of the most competitive places in the world to invest, create jobs, and do business. That's why Enbridge's proud Disponsors Today's event. We remain committed to working with government, industry, and communities to support economic growth, keep energy affordable and reliable, and contribute to the long-term prosperity of Ontario's families and businesses. Thank you all for being part of an important conversation for Ontario's future. [Applause] Thank you again to our panelists, sponsors, and of course to all of you for joining us here today. I'd also like to take a moment to recognize the students and young leaders joining us. Their presence is made possible through our charitable arm, the Empire Club Foundation, and the generosity of our donors. This support enables us to invite future leaders to take part in today's dialogue and to empower them to turn knowledge into leadership that shines in communities, boardrooms, and business leaders and national conversations shaping Canada's future. Thank you. [Applause] To stay connected, please subscribe to our newsletter by scanning the QR code on your tables. And if you're interested in our membership program, please see our staff for the registration. I also hope that you'll join us for two upcoming and exciting events. On March 27th, we welcome the honorable Steve McKinnon, Canada's transport minister, for connecting Canada, the trade infrastructure strategy, to power Canada's economic future. He will outline how Canada plans to modernize trade corridors, strengthen ports, rail, and aviation, and ensure that we can move goods, talent, and ideas at the speed that global partners now expect. And on April 24th, we host the Honorable Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources for one year of nation building, looking back and moving forward. One year into a new federal mandate, Minister Hodgson will speak to major projects, energy security, critical minerals, and how Canada can build with confidence in a more volatile global environment. Tickets for both events are now on sale. And as always, as a club of record, all empire clubs are events are available to watch and listen to on our website. And the recording of today's event will be available very shortly. Thank you all for being a part of this important conversation. This meeting is now adjourned. [BLANK_AUDIO]