Haley Stevens’ Bombshell Endorsement Could Backfire Big Time

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Here we are. We're finally here. This is very exciting. Thank you for joining our sub-cycle livestream. I'm Scott Goway. And I'm Jessica Tarlev. A lot to get to here, so let's bust into it. We'll be live streaming all week and breaking down all the results as I trickle in to make sure to subscribe to support our show and get the latest coverage. Alright, let's start with what feels like, is it a bomb shell or is it a grenade being thrown in an empty house? I can't figure it out. It's lively. Whatever happened in Michigan. I think it's more about the media entertaining itself or touching itself than it's about. I think it's going to impact anything. But anyways, the bomb shell or the grenade into an empty building is coming out of Michigan where a democratic unity push in the Senate race is completely unraveled. Abdul El Sayyad's former primary rival, Hayley Steven, spent the final weekend feuding over Israel in the direction of the party. Then instead of joining El Sayyad at a unity event, she stunned Democrats by endorsing Republican nominee Mike Rogers in appearing alongside him at Detroit Church. Meanwhile, El Sayyad campaigned with Congressman Jim Clyburn across town brushing off the drama. The fall was immediate. Rogers Kalshiyad's moved from 23 percent to 32 percent, I guess that's real. Though El Sayyad remains the favorite at 68 percent, but El Sayyad is showing no signs of losing momentum. He raised $2.4 million on Sunday. It's beginning to feel more like a fundraising event for El Sayyad, democratic leaders across the country are really pissed off. Chuck Schumer called the move a despicable betrayal while Hakeem Jeffries urged voters to back El Sayyad. Let's watch how Stevens responded to the backlash. Yesterday, El Sayyad said, essentially, what you wanted him to say regarding the offensive ad, he said he did not agree with the contents of the ad paid for by an outside group. So, if you and he were on the same page when it came to that ad, what changed other than he had put out that statement, it disinvited you from that church service. Is that, was that the angrier and angrier part that you're focusing on? Anderson, this is a broader point about what's going on in our party. It's actually not. It's really just a question of why you changed your mind. We were just recognizing, look, I haven't cast my vote yet. You know, people, my neighbors were asking me, they're on the same side, and they feel the same way. Back in August, you posted on social media, quote, "Mike Rogers will be another rubber stamp for Donald Trump's dangerous agenda. We can't afford to give MAGA another Senate seat in November. How do you, why is it okay now, why can you afford now to give MAGA another Senate seat in November?" Well, why is it okay to have the Democratic Party in a top nominee, you know, ejecting, you know, this type of, or injecting rather, this type of, of anger and lack of kindness? Yeah, I watched that interview yesterday. It's painful to watch again. It was just so, I mean, it's, again, I have this thing called don't these people have friends. I don't know. I want to ask you if you think this is going to have an impact. What I'm fairly certain of is that her political career is over. And it was obvious, it was sort of obvious in retrospect when her fiance came out and made a public statement. By the way, I can't, I can't figure out why the hell anyone cares what her fiance says. Folks, a fiancee means you're all still getting along. And if she wanted to put, there's no way he did this without her permission, meaning she was planning to do this. And Anderson Cooper has exactly the right question. What changed? So this feels very strange. So I'll start there, Jess, do you think this has any impact? On the votes? Who gets elected? I know. Yeah. I think it does have impacts. And we can talk about, you know, where Hailey Stevens goes from this, but I don't think it has a big impact on the outcome on Tuesday. I think that what Hailey Stevens is talking about is a real sentiment that some voters, especially Jewish voters in Michigan have where they don't feel that Abdul has made a clear enough case that he cares about Jewish safety and Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state. And I know that his tack is that he's against ethno states generally, but people feel like he's only talking about Israel and regularly talking about Israel in the ethno state category. So Hailey Stevens didn't invent this, right, that it's a set of concerns that people have and there's talk about some folks that will be leaving that line on their ballot blank. There is a group called Democrats for Microdgers, which her fiance Jason Turkish is a member of. I don't know how robust that group actually is. There usually these things exist, but Microdgers has been doing better with Jewish voters and black voters than our Republican nominee traditionally does. So there was an argument to be made that inroads were happening with those communities. But the story does not make sense. And as someone who is part of the media and also someone who doesn't like to be sensationalist or certainly place blame on a woman like to, did your fiance make you do this? The story is just not adding up here. And the quick turnaround on this that she's even saying, oh, I haven't cast my vote yet. And there was a conflicting story about how she had already voted and had voted for Microdgers. Like nothing is making a ton of sense except the fact that she was uneasy, which we knew from the jump with this and that her fiance was definitely pushing in this direction. And governor Blanchard, who was the governor of Michigan, had dinner with them on Friday night. And according to reports said that her fiance was quite bullying and was talking out how everybody's disappointed in her. And that, you know, she came out right away and she endorsed him. Well, that's what you're supposed to do after a primary and you're not supposed to make it ugly and you're supposed to do what you can to help the person that won the primary win the general election. And that doesn't mean just act like everything sunshine and butterflies. That means talking to them about real weaknesses in their campaign, which there are with Jewish voters and with black voters. But I don't think it's going to have a tremendous amount of impact on it tomorrow. There's even a case to be made, which, you know, some folks in the media and other electeds have been making that the fact that she did this at a black church made them feel like she was using black voters as ponds in this bigger game and that they were not happy with that. Like, why did you have to do this here? Or my point, which I just made on America's newsroom, I was on this morning where I said, why wouldn't you just say upon further consideration, I'm going to be voting, you know, straight ticket Democrat, but I'm leaving the Senate line blank. You know, coming out and endorsing Mike Rogers and then making me argument that it's because you want to support the party that isn't proliferating hate when they've called Abdul just in the last few days, a jihadist, a leprechaun jihadist, you know, Muslim brotherhood. I don't know how you could be saying like, you guys are the hateful ones, but these ones over here are okay, not to mention the litany of reasons that she's given about why you can't elect Mike Rogers based upon his record. And the fact that he'll be a rubber stamp for Donald Trump, meaning, you know, people are poor, people are going to have less health care, they're going to be paying more, you know, talk of having a national abortion. version ban. Um, it's bad stuff in the betrayal that these folks in the party feel, you know, she was on the phone with a lot of them hours before this happened, you know, the night before, like Debbie Dingell and Jamie Raskin and talking to Nancy Pelosi. And then they're waiting for her at Clyburn's church. People, her staff was there like there's an academic term to describe what's gone down here. And it's simple. She fucked up. I mean, this is just nothing, what do you think? I'll say that is anti Israel, anti Netanyahu anti Semitic, nothing about the way he acquits himself around this issue changed between Saturday and Sunday. What changed was her grievance. And this feels like personal vendetta. I don't think it's going to have an impact. And see above, he raised $2.4 million on the heels of this half her staff has reportedly resigned half her staff has resigned over this. So Republicans aren't going to moderate. It's not going to credit her for for this. I mean, what I think the percentage of the Jewish vote of Michigan is one and a half percent, is that right? Yeah, it's not massive, but she has a huge Jewish constituency, you know, in her district. I don't want to minimize the concerns. Obviously the electoral impacts is another question. Yeah, but my point is the concerns haven't changed. It's she's changed. And that is she was able to see past her concerns. I mean, the irony of all of this is she claimed a ledge falsely alleged early in her campaign that Rogers had endorsed El Sayed. And now she's she's now endorsed Rogers. There's a general in politics people would rather be wrong, but resolute. And that is George W. Bush was seen on wrong on a ton of issues, but people appreciated how resolute it was probably most effective campaign at ever is that people thought John Kerry was better on the issues, but he was seen as a waffler. And even though Trump was seen as Islamophobic, he captured a greater share of the Muslim populations voted Michigan because they said, quote unquote, an exit polling that I'd rather you stab me in the front of the chest than in the back. So voters and the public are generally turned off by people who flip flop like this, especially when there doesn't seem to be an event other than trying to either grab the spotlight or demonstrate grievance or because she's personally still angry about her loss, whatever it might be. This is more, I think this story in retrospect, the lesson here is going to be about how not to handle yourself 48 hours before an election, not about the impact it's going to have. I don't I don't see any I mean, I guess it's too late for polling. And again, there's certain stories that the media just loves because they're kind of quite they're salacious and they can bring her on and she looks like an ass. And it's interesting warfare, which the media loves. My sense is in retrospect, this will be seen as a nothing burger, other than her signing her own resignation from the world of public politics. I did want to mention, you know, the near time Santa pole has a dual up 11. Yeah, which is massive. And so I know that there's this concern about oversampling of Democrats and even the Washington Post pole, which came out then kind of invalidated their results and said, you know, we think we oversampled Democrats. The New York Times actually has remodeled from 2024 to compensate for that problem. So if this pole were run by the 2024 methodology, Abdul would be up 16. Like I don't I you should always play like it's a tie game. And they are Abdul is playing like that in terms of how hard he's working. I know that there have been criticisms about, you know, attitudinal things where he seems comes off as arrogant and like he doesn't have to, you know, answer certain questions, et cetera. But the guy isn't sitting around on a barco lounger with his legs up, right? He's doing events nonstop. But 11 points, that that feels crazy to me. I mean, maybe I just won't allow myself to feel like it could be like that tomorrow, that level of a bloodbath. But what it what's your feeling? Well, I've seen in the mission race. I've seen anywhere between three and 11. So it sounds like he's safely well ahead. And I think the only numbers that really moved with her endorsement of Rogers were one his his cash haul that day. And also CNN's viewership last night watching this train wreck, watching this individual just crash out. But I think in retrospect, I would speculate that it's not going to have much impact on the actual election. And to your point, we're all nervous because there's situations where the polls ended up being wildly wrong, usually they're around Hillary or around Maine. But he feels like he has a pretty comfortable margin. Support for the show comes from article. There's no better feeling than walking into a home that expresses your specific and unique style. Whatever that looks like for you, mid-century modern, coastal or a scandy inspired space, article can help you make it real. 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We do what we can to stay on top of the news every day, which is why we know that keeping up can be a lot, especially with all the outrage in the noise. The NPR Politics Podcast can help you stay in the loop for 15 minutes or less every week day. And right now, NPR Politics has its eye on the midterms and the issues that actually affect your life. The high cost of housing, healthcare, ice, and immigration. America's role in the world and the growing debt. Instead of doom scrolling for your news, you can get an exact calm summary that helps declutter the chaos. It's a team of really experienced political journalists who talk like your smart friends, giving you straight talk instead of hyperbole. I get a lot of questions about what my own media diet is, and I can unequivocally tell you no lie. NPR Politics Podcast is a crucial component. It is the best way to start the day. I love that it's tight. I know it's gotten I can go on for a while sometimes. 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President Trump made his final campaign stops in Iowa and Kansas before he makes his last rally and his algae filled reflecting pull at the Lincoln Memorial later today. But the political landscape is looking increasingly grim for Republicans as Chess had referenced. The last New York time, Santa Paul of the cycle shows Democrats leading in five key Senate battlegrounds, including Texas and Kansas, which is shocking. Kansas specifically with an edge in Alaska and a virtual tie in Iowa. Just 38% of voters across the state's approved Trump's job performance and Democrats have a nine point advantage on the cost of living. Again, when they took a bunch of seats in 18, they were D7. Now it's D plus nine. So this is not this is a again, the thing that I find most shocking about any of this is usually at the end things things close and narrow and this seems to be the Gulf appears to be broadening. Any thoughts on the final weekend on the campaign trail, just you know, the Republicans are just trying to blunt the trauma right at this point and they're fighting the couch. We're fighting them and they're fighting the couch. So that's why Trump in a lot of these more conservative states, maybe the galvanizing force that you need to get a darling Graham across the finish line or maybe Roger Marshall in Kansas, though I have spoken to a lot of people who feel very good about Kansas and that Reverend Hamilton is the perfect candidate for this and that actually we all weren't aware of how bad Roger Marshall is. Did you see the ad that he made himself on his iPhone that his team wasn't involved in and then just released on socials and they're not even putting money behind it. It's so catastrophic. I thought it was either a parody or something that Reverend Hamilton like had had some fantasy dream about and then somehow it came into being that Roger Marshall would go direct to camera to talk about the medical debt story, how he actually instructed folks to go after people who had come to him for emergency hysterectomies, for instance, and that they set the interest rate at 18% versus the industry standard of 12% and that he had gone after folks for as little as $101. So that story has been permeated the ecosystem in Kansas between that and stiffing the local bakery. Everyone's getting an idea that Roger Marshall is not a good dude. So he decides that he's going to do a direct to camera about this. I'm Dr. Roger Marshall and you should know the truth about Adam Hamilton's ads. Their faults plain and simple. When I practice as a small town OB docked, often serving as the only OB in the middle of 40,000 people, my wife and I decided to take care of everyone regardless of their ability to pay. We wrote off hundreds of bills monthly and one of every five patients received pre-care. Now to ensure that 40,000 canzans would still have access to care, we didn't have to keep the lights on so we occasionally handed some accounts over to collection agency just like nearly every private medical practice does. To be crystal clear, the Kansas bill of rights ensures that no one can go to prison because of indebtedness and I would never wish that on any patient I had the privilege to serve. My involvement in any patient's account ended the minute it was turned over to an outside agency. I never had anyone arrested, not once an Adam Hamilton knows it. Kansas deserved to know the truth and now you do. I'm Senator Dr. Roger Marshall and I humbly ask for your vote. When you're explaining you're losing, we all know that as a general maxum. To live by on top of it, he then says, you know, so of course I had to use a few collection agencies and you think, is this real? Like three days before an election, you're talking about how you sent collection agencies out to chase women that had had emergency hysterectomies for $100. So you see that and you think maybe Kansas is real. It's really wild. You got to give it to we've been critical of Senator Minority Leader Schumer, but whoever's in charge of Canada quality. Long Senate Majority Leader, Minority Leader Schumer. They deserve a lot of credit because the Canada quality on the on the Democratic side has been outstanding and the Canada quality on the Republican side has been literally rancid. I mean, this guy you're talking about, Marshall and I mean, it's like, I think they could have picked someone in prison and that person might have had a better shot at beating Taloriko if that person had been, I mean, Ken Paxton, I just, they, anyways, I'm just shocked at. And I guess who would, so if it's Senator, if it's Senator Minority Leader Schumer, who, and then maybe it's just bubbling up for people being excited to run because again, Schumer's candidate was Haley Stevens and Michigan, who is technically in charge of Canada quality for the on the Republican side? Leader soon, I guess, but a lot of these guys are incumbents, right? Like Roger Marshall is the sitting Senator. And I think there's a larger lesson here, which will be a good one for everybody, which is that you just can't take stuff for granted anymore. You know, you can't think that you are going to sleepwalk into reelection over and over again. If you don't do constituency work, if you're not a good guy, if maybe you live in Florida a little bit, like people are going to notice and they want you to work hard and they want you to deliver. And one of, you know, we've been rightfully so a bit obsessed with the Senate side, but I've been paying attention to, and I'm sure folks that are the types that would be tuning into a live substack about this have been doing it as well. You know, the story on the house side of the candidate quality and also what looks like beating these gerrymanders is enormously important to all of this. You know, they saw the Republicans figured they would win four seats in Florida. Maybe they're going to get one of them because of how good the candidates have been. And in Texas, you know, gerrymandering for what they thought would be five seats. Maybe they get one or two. You know, folks like Johnny Garcia, Deputy Sheriff, former hostage negotiator, Bobby Polito, the Tejano music star, who's running this very unconventional, super exciting campaign. And I don't know why after one good election, Republicans thought that they could own the Rio Grande, you know, that Latino voters were in it for the long haul, but you're seeing these crazy turnout numbers and it's being predominantly driven by younger voters and especially younger Latino voters who did not necessarily vote in 2024, those low propensity voters. And so I think that that is definitely a piece of the puzzle that is perhaps under discussed. But I think it's very important that, you know, you try to break the game and you try to cheat. And it looks like, you know, knock on wood that that's going to blow up in their faces. Yeah, there's definitely something going on. And but I think one of the bigger trends we're going to look back on and think it was sort of one of the seminal outcomes of this election is that if you think of the parties as two icebergs and the moderates or the river that everything flows through or that creates all life. And that is, you know, we've been constantly talking about how it's a small number of voters and a small number of states that decide the presidential election. That's changing. And that is the largest registered, largest registration or filing under registration now for American voters is independent. In some, the people that are up for grabs has never been greater. And we're generating more swing voters. And that is, people just used to go all red or all blue. And the number of people who are actually up for grabs is greater. And what I'm now believing, and I hate to say it out loud, it looks like things are we might go from blue tsunami to super tsunami tomorrow. Don't do it, Scott. Yeah, I know. I'm hecking it. And I'm terrible at this. We're not alone here. There you go. But but if you look at young voters in 2024, Trump had closed the gap. Young voters tend to go more blue. But in 2024, he closed the gap to nine points. It was 53, 44, I think. It is now 68, 23. It is 45 point Delta amongst young people who are going to likely vote Republican versus Democratic. And if in fact, the river has broadened and the people who are frozen into their political orthodoxies has melted away. And you look at them, momentum right now. There's just more people who are up for grabs to take advantage. In other words, there's more to carry. There's more debris or there's more change in a tsunami now than there would have been four years ago, because there was just reliably 47% on each side was solid no matter who is running. And six percent was up for grabs. And now it appears that that number, that up for grabs swing voter number has become much greater over the last few years as people are disgusted with both parties and no longer is loyal to one or the other party. So let's talk a little bit about a question looming over Tuesday. What happens if the results are contested? And Alaska Republican Senator Dan Sullivan says they'll accept the election results, but he's accusing Mayor Pratola of showing voters disdain by recruiting a second candidate with the same name to confuse them. Ask whether the effort was illegal. Sullivan said all that the lawyers figure that out, adding there are good arguments on both sides. Meanwhile, a federal judge just threw out a Justice Department lawsuit that could have delayed certification of Alaska center race. And Democrats are already preparing for legal battles elsewhere. DNC Chair Ken Martin says the party is bracing for crazy checanery after election day, accusing Trump of doing anything he can to keep Republicans power. Just my sense is all put for a thesis. They can delay these people being seated, but they can't, they can't change elections. At least that's my senses. That's how the courts have responded so far. And my sense of Alaska is what the Democrat, first of all, I think what Mary Pratola's accused of is wrong, but it's nothing that Republicans haven't done before. So yeah, let's have a systemic change. Election officials that actually look at these religion mechanics or if it's for gaming the system. But it needs to happen on both sides. And one of the things I don't like about the Democrats is we like to disarm unilaterally. So we have our dignity. New York Supreme Court overturns the gerrymandering that Republicans are doing in other states and we lose one seat to Republicans. That strikes me as infinitely democratic. So I'm sort of like I'm not willing to disarm unilaterally. And this is nothing that Republicans haven't done before. Do you think one that's accurate? And two, what do you think happens post election with some of these challenges? Yes, I think that's accurate, including the icky feeling from it, which I definitely have. You know, the New York Times report was riveting. It read like a movie, right? You could see it, you know, being acted out with we had to get to him. You could only go by air or sea. And so, you know, we went in search of our Dan Sullivan. There will be questions. about payments and there's an $87,000 you know in question like did it come from the super pack you know and and that will wind its way through court but I was certainly happy to see Dan Sullivan say that it was going to accept the election results and you know that it's going to be a cabal of politicians in DC led by Donald Trump that are saying that everything is fraud even if the margins are you know quote unquote too big to rig which hopefully it's a good night that we're in that kind of space but yeah I want a little more Mitch McConnell energy on the democratic side and to a lot of people that's what this is and I you know tried talking about it on the five and you know it it did not go well but self is gross stuff is happening right now even on Alaska's ballot I mean the Republicans have this guy who's sitting in a New York prison who's running on the democratic ticket and the guy is in jail for 20 years he's not coming to take his seat and it's because the candidate who might win this is the independent candidate so they have him as the damn there are these mailers in Nevada this is so aft up so the candidate for governor Ford is the last name so there is a woman Danielle Ford I'm so not exactly the same name but she's running as an independent candidate and the right has been sending out these mailers with a picture of Danielle Ford and AOC calling her the AOC of Nevada which obviously implies that she's the liberal candidate not Aaron Ford and no they don't care about that right you bring that up oh well is you know it's not quite the same thing yeah we yeah you didn't take a helicopter to find Dan Sullivan necessarily but you're running a guy in prison and you know they did there was crazy chicaneery in a 2020 race in Florida where a GOP operative actually went to jail for this so they pushed back they said will you actually went to jail but the Republican kept the seat and you want by 32 votes so yeah the justice system quote unquote worked but where's the justice for the fact that you mess with this election and the Republicans still get to got to keep the seat so that's the courts don't like overturn elections generally speaking you know their attitude is yeah it was awful I mean pretty much the mo of this process is once the election once there's a winner announced it's highly unlikely it's going to be overturned regardless of what happened I mean that person could potentially be kicked out of Congress at some point right but once you get the seat once once once CNN or the local newspaper announces you're the winner the courts are really reticent overturned regardless of how ugly wrong and potentially illegal it is let's move on to the Midwest and Iowa Democratic Senator candidate Josh Turek is facing backlash over a new ad taking a hard line on transgender issues they had says he opposes transgender woman competing in sports and taxpayer funded gender affirming surgeries and effort to blunt millions of dollars in Republican attacks but the message is angered LGBT groups and Democratic leaders one country party chair is even matron her endorsement Turek says Democrats don't have to agree with him on everything let's listen to a clip as a kid in a wheelchair I faced my share of bullying it's why I believe that no I one should face discrimination as a Paralympian I also know it's important to have rules it's why I pose males competing in female sports something that is already illegal in Iowa I'm against taxpayers paying for sex changes to anyone tells you any difference is lying I'm Josh Turek I prove this message it's time to stop the nonsense from both extremes and start to focus on lowering costs for Iowa's great what what's the problem here I just the guy's running an Iowa for God's sake yeah there's only you made that ad in Massachusetts I'd say only problem maybe didn't need to do it but it's also just common sense and these are 80 20 or 90 10 issues yeah and Iowa it's probably 95 I don't think there's a time and the one with the woman who went through yeah it's crazy to me and also like Josh Turek's story and I like that he put it in there to say you know I've been made fun of my whole I've faced my share of adversity got myself to the Paralympics like this is not a guy who thinks that you should be beating up on people for being different right and this is the Andy Bashir answer that has made him the most popular governor in the country even the ruby red state where you say I know what fair means I know in competitive sports there's an advantage here but I will not excuse you bullying kids which is where the real problem is with this whole debate over you know transgender issues and it is a Republican dream that you could go into this election talking about transgender stuff and that it will actually move voters it's not even on the list of things people are considering and on top of it now Democrats have an eight point advantage on who's better to handle them because they've been so nasty about kids you know denying that an eight-year-old can go play soccer with whoever they want to that they've taken an issue where they had a clear advantage and turned into monsters so I'm glad that he did this and that Annie Andrews did a direct-to-camera about this as well and in South Carolina it's smart it's it's a just in general general advice for Democrats in my view would be focus more on economic issues and less on social issues because that's what people care about and just moderates look at some of the I think it's virtually signaling or posturing around some some of the issues around immigration and transgender rights and think okay these people are legitimately crazy yeah I think that they should focus more on economics and also quite fairly modulate or triangulate was Clinton's term and pivot a little bit more to the center I think this is a smart move so you know we're thinking about these red states that we have a shot at getting right and obviously taxes top of mind for a lot of people and James Thalerico has run this great campaign and energizing folks and seems to be persuading a lot of traditional Republicans that he's not the scary woke 1.0 version of James Thalerico right he's you know he doesn't think God is non-binary and there are six genders or like whatever else but I have heard from folks on the ground that there is a concern about a Democratic Senate writ large so that people even if you're in Texas and you don't like Ken Paxton and you like James Thalerico you think he's a good guy that you realize if if Texas falls right if at least on the Senate level I think Governor Abbott's gonna win by quite a healthy margin I am that that's a big plank for Democrats towards control of the Senate do you think that do you get the sense that people are being that strategic about it that they're thinking about the larger picture or some of these candidates are just so repellent that Thalerico you know is able to to pull this off well again I might be it just might be trying to make my I don't know what the biases make yourself feel better um confirmation by us what you believe but I think I think the concerns around the tariffs the concerns around inflation the concerns around corruption just overwhelm any broader concern about what happens if Democrats control both houses similarly Republicans have controlled both houses I mean I really do feel like I'm saying it tsunami form right now every piece of every piece of data just seems striking the that I don't know I'm an enormous fan of the Bill Marshow for amongst many reasons that's where I met you but I saw the show Friday and was the first time I watched the show and had to turn it off I thought it was a real miss on their part and I love Bill and I love his team and you know they know I'm always a fan and a supporter but on the Friday before the election to bring on Kid Rock and Ted Cruz and Caroline Love it it felt like it felt like I don't it just felt like over a Republican ad and the talking points on Thalerico from Cruz and Kid Rock were that you know that he believes he you know God God said there are six genders and no one was there to push back and say no Thalerico is trying to reflect the empathy and love of your Jesus that says that all people should be loved and serve some are deserving of some dignity and the idea that Ted Cruz and then he said Ted Cruz has said well no one would use the word masculine described James Thalerico and I'm curious if anyone would use that word to describe Ted Cruz who continues to suck the cock of the president who insults his wife's looks that's not exactly masculine Senator Cruz and Kid Rock and Ted Cruz sitting there talking about masculinity while neither of them could do a fucking pull up it just it struck me as just so non-balanced and that Bill didn't provide his usual sharp-gutting pushback and meanwhile didn't spend any time and then Bill did say this on so masculinity is being a corrupt person that protects pedophiles and cheats and lies and that's Ken Paxton that's who we want that's your vision of masculinity I just found the whole thing so off-putting and the comments in the video were just I mean they just got mauled by the way Kid Rock hasn't had a hit song since Governor DeCoccus was elected actually it's not fair not since Governor DeCoccus was elected but since Governor DeCoccus was elected governor who the fuck cares with Kid Rock things I can't I'm just still trying to figure out how he gets on the show. Anyways, I found that the whole thing, so just totally biased and unlike what they do, 'cause the thing I love about that show is they kind of hit it straight down the middle, which pisses off everyone. And I found that at this moment to come out with this right wing and the guest was Caroline Levitt, who by the way is sharper than anyone that was on that stage. I don't appreciate Ms. Levitt, but I appreciate just how smart she is and on point she is, given her objectives and the constituency represents, given her age. I've interviewed countless politicians, and if there's one thing we all find disconcerting, is when they butcher the facts with some bias half truth. Give us a break already. So when I had the chance to debate conservative podcast or Ben Shapiro, our natural response was bringing on. Why? Because it was sponsored by USA Facts, and each debate segment started with a presentation of government data and facts, employment, government spending, income data, housing and more. The topic, the American dream, is it still within reach. We argued, we found some common ground, we actually debated, and there were no personal attacks. Watch the full debate on the USA Facts YouTube channel. We think you'll find it unlike any other debate. That is entertaining and informative. We hope you check it out. - As US Americans voted in the midterm elections, a lot was uncertain, but one thing was clear. This year, many of the attention grabbing candidates identified or were identified as populists. Gina Inohosa, a Democrat who ran a surprisingly competitive race for governor in Texas. - Populism is about economic power. - Sam Forstack, who ran for Congress as a dem in Montana. - I'm running as a populist because populism is what the Democratic Party is supposed to be about. It's what democracy is supposed to be about. - Josh Turek, a Democrat up for a congressional seat in Ohio. - We want to once again have a common sense great populist that is fighting for the people. - And said it, hopeful Dan Osborne, who ran as an independent in Nebraska and didn't use the word populist. - My life sucks too, costs are too high. - The last 10 years in the US have been defined by Trump's style populism. This year candidates from across the political spectrum embraced the populist mantle. On today's plane from Vox, what has 10 years of populism gotten us and are we ever going back? Today's plane drops every weekday. - We're just days away from the mid-term elections, which means I only really have one question. - And I'm Al, we from the culinary union. - How are the issues that we've been tracking all year? - Actually playing out on the ground. - The reason why we're out here, it's to work out with your candidacy for airing Ford and Mr. Osborne. I'm not sure if you heard of them. - Oh yeah, I'm about to name my gay men. - A few weeks ago, I headed west to Nevada, where the entire midterms can basically be summed up in just three words. The Trump slum. - Even with our great union jobs that we had, we're struggling. I never happened before. It is because of these politicians what they're doing to us. The Trump slum. - This week on America actually, midterms canvassing with the Las Vegas culinary union. - How are you more than anything to the election day? - Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. - Let's talk about the race for Los Angeles mayor, which is tightening with a new pulsing and coming in Care and Bass and Challenger Nitya Rahman. The tide of 40% and plenty of voters still undecided. Now Bass and her allies are making the 2028 Olympics the central line of attack, arguing Rahman's past opposition to the games are shifting position, her shifting position on L.I.P.D. leadership could threaten preparations. Rahman says she wants the Olympics to succeed, but Bass's team is questioning whether she can deliver. I think this is so fucking strange. The Olympics, that's what they're fighting over. And basically what will be the president of the 14th largest economy in the world, Los Angeles. Homeless issues, economic growth, taxation, special interest groups soaking the city. And they're talking about the Olympics. It just strikes me as very strange. What do you make? Have you been following the mayoral race there? - Yeah, I think a pivotal moment was definitely recruiters. So coming out and saying that he's voting for Care and Bass. And I think that a lot of folks will be proverbially holding their nose and doing that, that Nithia Rahman is an unknown. And it's the, the devil you know that will end up winning the day. My expectation is that Bass will win, not because people are particularly excited about that, but that they don't really know Nithia Rahman or think that she can do the job. I mean, we're grasping at straws. Though the Olympics is a big deal. It's going to be an even bigger deal, obviously, for the next governor, you know, for Bassara. I expect we'll be the governor by a very large margin. But you know, conversations when you have a DSA candidate on the ballot around police and support for police, I think are fair game. You know, there are DSA members out there talking about defunding the police saying we should abolish prisons, etc. Actually, that is a fair knock on them since they go out and do interviews where they are talking like that. But this feels like a race to the bottom situation. And I'm curious if Bass is able to pull it out and you know, closing this 11 point gap in the last few weeks with again, a lot of undecideds. But how does she change course, right? If you eaked this one out and you've heard so many voters, you know, these are Democrats, right? These aren't like, I have to win over somebody who's not prone to like me. Like this should, this should be easy work. Like what are you going to do differently? How are you going to actually address the homelessness crisis? What are you going to do about drug addicts in the streets? How are you going to fix the schools? What are you going to do with cutting red tape, which is a complete nightmare in that state? You know, everybody who's homes were affected by the fires and the palisades, all to Dina, all of it. They have the same response, you know, where died in the wool liberals. And we can't even start construction on our homes because of all of these hoops that we have to jump through. Let's do a bit of a data dump on some of the stories we've been talking about. So Elsie Ed's response in Michigan was, at the end of the day, I don't think about Haley Stevens. And Iowa, we're talking about transgender sports or transgender women in high school sports as an issue. A ban on trans women in high school in the cult sports in Iowa was implemented in 2022. The Iowa Capitol's smash estimated there were less than 500 transgender females across Iowa and middle and high schools at the time. I can't see this guy's nothing. By the way, it's making a masculinity. Nothing screams confident masculinity, like demonizing 500 kids. I mean, come on. 3% of high schoolers identify as transgender per the CDC. That seems awfully high to me. But anyways, Alaska Republicans are attempting something similar. In Ohio, a GOP-aligned super PAC has been over $1.5 million to post-immigrant a challenge or shared brown and promote socialist candidate Greg Levy. Levy is pulling around 5% and Dems are worried you could take progressive votes away from Brown. We just referenced the Los Angeles mayor's race. Eight of the previous nine polls have shown ramen in the lead. When ramen ran for city council in 2020, she had said she opposed LA hosting the Olympics. She cited Russia planning and the lack of public input as her reasoning. She's also more recently expressed concerns about the city covering costs of the private organization, organizing committee LA 28 months out of money. Folks is too late. And if she were to not, if she were to get, if she were to win the mantle of mayor, there's no fucking way she's not going to be supportive. She's not going to let a global event implode on her watch. That, again, it's the media turning in my opinion and issue into a non-issue. I can't believe they're arguing over this and not issues that affect everyday Angelinos. And talking about a generational divide in October survey conducted by the Los Angeles Times, by the Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley, 69% of likely voters under 30 and 74% of voters aged 30 to 39, favorite ramen. Jesus, wow, 74% of voters aged. And again, this is somewhat of a larger metaphor for the election and that is, I don't think, I mean, I don't think it's a Democrat's winning here. I think that's Republicans losing and I don't think Nitya ramen is going to win the election. I think Karen Bass is going to lose it. It's just, I think you said it perfectly, just a weak incumbent. Curious, we don't spend enough time, Jess, and we'll, before we end here, any gubernatorial races we should be talking about. George is a toss-up, Kansas Tiltz Republican, Nevada Tilt Republican, Iowa Tilt-Dem, Wisconsin Tilt-Dem. What are you looking at? Or anything interesting we should be thinking about in terms of the gubernatorial races? Yeah, I feel like this is a real missed opportunity to be getting some great political action this cycle. And the Senate has just overwhelmed everything, saved for Rob Sand. I feel like everyone's interested in the Senate and then Rob Sand, and as of 10 days ago, Amy Acton and Ohio because of the VIX disgusting ad that all but assured that she was going to be able to pull this out. Fingers crossed on that. The Georgia governor's race is really interesting. I think that, you know, Jon Ossoff in seemingly very safe position against Mike Collins, another terrible candidate, Plakisha Lance Bottoms in a much closer race with Rick Jackson. Jon Ossoff has very much made this a ticket race, which helps her a lot. And she was part of that rally with Obama and Ossoff. But that would be a very big deal for us to get the governor's mansion. There is a governor's race in Arizona, Katie Hopps, you know, buying for reelection. Wisconsin is interesting. I mean, remember that primary everyone was paying attention to and how with just a couple of weeks left, Tony Evers said, "No, we're not going DSA on this. I'm going to go get David Crowley who had already dropped out of the race and want to ask him to get back in." Then he manages to win it because Twitter is not real life. And voters on the ground actually want a normal human being to be their nominee. And so that race is very interesting. I expect Crowley to win. But I think he's only up about three or four points at this point. The Michigan race, we mentioned Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic candidate, running as Jon James, in reference to conversations about Abdul. But she is important in and of herself. And I know the governor's mansion, Gretchen Whitmer's been in there for a couple of terms now. Very popular. Jocelyn Benson has been running a wonderful campaign. But I'm very interested in the margins there. And you know how much she wins by knock on wood versus how much Abdul wins by or if people are just going to be going straight ticket there. And then in Nevada, I already mentioned those mailers relating to Aaron Ford, the lieutenant governor, who's running for governor, where they have the Danielle Ford and AOC mailer in circulation. So a lot that's really interesting there. And you know, governors are the people who are actually in charge of your life. And they are they are the executive that matters most to it. New York has a race. At Kathy Hoko, it looks quite comfortable right now. But there has been swirl over the last few weeks because there were a few polls that had Bruce Blakeman within striking-ish distance. But looking ahead to the 2028 field, a lot of people's favorites are governors, right? The people who have been delivering for you are actually balancing budgets, protecting your health care against, you know, onslaught coming from DC. These guys matter a lot. And I don't think we talk about them enough. And that's on me. I should do a better job of it. But there are a lot of really interesting races. So just before we close it out here, young men, the swingest of swing voters or young voters and the swingest of swingers are young men. And young men have a tendency to, and that is they have the greatest variance in swinging from blue to red to red to blue. And the issue that they focus on is economics. Whereas young women tend to be more focused on social issues. Young men are focused on economic issues. And when we started this podcast, we love the name "Raging Moderates." But the reality is, and people pointed this out, we are moderates, but we're at the end of the day, we are progressives. I would call us, you know, I love those, those, what if there was a real billboard talking about the moody. The kind of real name for the shook should probably be, I think, progressives at our batshit crazy. And I just want to talk a little bit about young men and the economy. I think something the Republicans have been very effective at is branding the Republican Party as a party of growth. And a strong economy and sort of labeling Democrats as these tax and spend liberals who don't have an underlying or a fundamental understanding of the economy. I did a debate with Ben Shapiro, sponsored by USA Faxx, which is an organization funded by Steve Bomber. And they sent out this amazing packet that was about this thick of economic data. And I spent a lot of time with it. I found it really interesting. And what I did was I went through. And since 1980, and 1980 is largely when we transitioned or evolved from a manufacturing economy to a services and tech economy. I would describe 1980 as good a demarcation as any in terms of when the economy in America changed. And since then, we've had almost 12 presidential administrations. So five Democratic, we're at six and a half, based on the fact we're halfway through the second term of Trump, six and a half Republican. And I went back and I looked at all of the GDP growth, the job growth in the addition to the deficit as a percentage of GDP. And then I divided average and divided out on Republican administrations versus Democratic administrations. And this is what I found under Democratic administrations. You have added, we have added approximately two million jobs to the economy each year. Republican administrations, one million. So twice the number of jobs added across those five administrations as during the six and a half Republican administrations. Let's talk about GDP growth. GDP growth has averaged under Republican administrations 2%. Under Democratic administrations, it's been 4.1%. Double the economic growth. And then you'll immediately think, well, okay, tax and spend liberals juicing the economy on the backs of future generations and adding to the deficit. Well, hold on. The deficits under Democratic administrations has averaged 2.1% of GDP. Additional additions to the deficit each year under Democratic administrations. Under Republican administrations, it's been 2.8%. In sum, the progressive policies of taxing the wealthy, taxing corporations redistributing that income in the form of infrastructure, technology, education, social services to the middle class to create an engine of growth has hugely paid off. And it's Democratic economic policies that resulted in more jobs, more job growth with lower deficit. So if like me as a younger man, you are very focused on your economic well-being such you can have a family such that you can register the prosperity that America is known for. Then I would urge you to vote Democratic. Democratic administrations, Democratic policies have resulted in greater job growth, greater economic growth and lower deficit. So I'm urging young men to avoid the labeling and the stereotypes of Democrats is not being pro-growth. They are the party of growth. Any closing thoughts before we wrap this up, Jess? I mean, I co-sign all of that. And I think coming from someone who likes money a lot. That you were me. Well, I like it too. I don't have as much as you, but maybe one day. But no, I think it's an important message. It's always my big frustration when they're like, "Oh, you guys are in a crash, the economy." And I'm like, "You literally loved the 90s more than anybody I've ever spoken to." But I did want to mention that Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who has been on the pod with us and who we are both big fans of had a stroke over the weekend. And when you actually started talking, he said, "I want to talk to a young man. I thought you were going to talk about taking care of yourself, which you should also do." And there's no indication that Chris Murphy was not doing that. But he was only 53 years old. He's awake and he's alert. Doctors are optimistic. They don't make a full recovery. But it's really scary stuff. Life is very precious and it goes fast and you don't know what's coming tomorrow, wishing him obviously a speedy recovery. And that all of you who are listening are taking good care of yourself. It is easy to get too busy and to be burdened down by everything. And life is very precious. So, hoping Chris is well very soon. And yeah, just scary. I like that. Let's leave it there, Jess. We'll be back tomorrow, live on YouTube, and Substack at 11 a.m. Eastern. Make sure to subscribe to stay up to date with our coverage and most importantly, get out and vote. It is a right is a privilege. It is an obligation. Literally millions of people all over the world have sacrificed and died. So, tomorrow, you can get to the booth if you haven't already.