Gulfstream Park Races on 1/24/26 - Analysis AND Betting Discussion with Guest Barry Spears

(upbeat music) (upbeat music) Welcome to the sport of King's Podcast Episode 346, the podcast where the horse player is King. As always, I welcome your feedback on Twitter/X. My handle is @derby1592. That's @derby1592. The sport of King's is sponsored by Amwager, and this week Amwager offers 0% takeout on win bets on the Pregusist card. You heard me right, 0% takeout, you can't beat that. It's like the normal 17% takeout on GP win bets. You will get paid as if the takeout were 0%. That's in the win pool if you sign up for the promotion. And that's a better rate than even the CAAW teams get. So for more information about that, just go to amwager.com. But we'll turn our attention to the actual races. And I'm joined this week by special guest, Racing Analyst Barry Spears. Our show will focus on finding and exploiting value on Saturday's Gulfstream Park card, which is filled with greatest dates, including the grade one, Pegasus. We'll talk about our strongest handicap in opinions, and how we might leverage those opinions using optimal betting strategies. Hi, Barry, how's it going? - Really, really well. How are you doing today, man? - Great, not as good as you. I understand you're gonna be heading to Gulfstream on Saturday. - Oh yeah, going down there. It's only about three hours from my house. So the weather's gonna be excellent here. Unfortunately, not for everybody else in the Northeast and through middle America. But here it's gonna be about 80 degrees, and you know, I'm gonna be wearing shorts and having a good time. - Yeah, I normally am not enjoying that kind of weather, but I'm visiting relatives in Arizona right now. So it was like in the '70s. And I think it is supposed to rain this weekend. So, but nothing like the weather they're talking about, you know, in the east and midwest. So hopefully that doesn't materialize, but it sounds like it's not going to affect sunny South Florida, which is where Gulfstream will be betting. And before we get into betting, I always like to talk about the wadry menu at the track we're talking about. In this case, it's Gulfstream. Their average takeout for most bets is about normal. They only, I would say, later friendly bet on their menu really is the all turf pick three, which has a $3 minimum and a 15% takeout, which is the higher minimum is a good thing, usually that results in higher payouts and less activity from the CAW teams. They also have three pick fives, I think maybe even more in this card, but at least three. But the middle pick five is supposedly, it does not allow the CAW to participate. So if you're going to play a pick five in the card, that would probably be the one you'd want to focus on. Definitely be more player friendly than the other two. They also have a couple of bets that they join with Santa Anita for a 15% takeout that also supposedly does not allow CAW participation. That's the coast to coast pick five and the sunset pick six. They do have a jackpot rainbow pick six, which is a terrible bet for retail players, even on the mandatory payout days. So I'd avoid that. CAWs have unfettered access and most every other pool that I haven't mentioned, including that rainbow six. So that means you have to really look for value because it's a pretty high hurdle overcome if you look at both the takeout and that competition from the teams. Except, of course, if you bet to win this week, using Amwager's promotion where you get 0% takeout. So win bets might be the way to go if you find somebody like in this sequence. And that's what Barry and I are going to try to do is maybe give you some ideas to help you form some good opinions on how to bet these races. So we're going to start. We're going to look at the last five races on the card. It's all graded stakes, several grade ones, but the first in the sequence is race nine. It's a grade three. The midnight stakes go in a mile and a half on the turf for older horses. Barry, why don't you get a start with your high level assessment of this race. What do you think of the favorite? Any strong opinions about pace or anything at a high level before we dig into your main opinions? Yeah, this is a really, really, really tough race to try to gauge who's going to get bet. I have the idea that O'Hanaughner is obviously going to be the favorite, but beyond that, it could go a lot of different directions. O'Hanaughner, frankly, is a bit win challenged. It has five seconds at a 19 starts and more seconds than wins. That is always a red flag for me because of the fact that you see these horses get bet a lot and you can see that with O'Hanaughner, too, that don't win a whole lot. They finished second quite a bit. And not saying that O'Hanaughner really fits that mold, but it's usually something that really grabs my attention when I want to try to bet against the favorite. And I don't think O'Hanaughner powers over this field by any means. And I think there's a couple of others in here that might be able to reverse the course on that one and step up and win a race like this. - So it sounds like you're kind of willing to take a shot against O'Hanaughner, which I agree is probably going to be the favorite. - Yeah, yeah, definitely want to try to take a shot against that horse. A horse that really peeks my interest here would be the six mixed to cut. I think they're sitting on a pretty good race. This horse had some real, really good races back in 2023, 2024. They ended up going to Asuka and kind of running a dud, which happens a lot. That's a tough ship, tough horses, tough everything. They came back and got three really poor trips, I thought. And I wanted in the MacDaramada at Gulfstream, the Elkhorn at Keenlin, April 19th, and the Louisville. Just was kind of why I didn't get great trips and then also ran into a horse that was kind of hot at the time in Utah Beach at this one mile and a half distance. So I'm willing to forgive those three. Then Switches Barnes comes back off the layoff, runs a pretty good race while being wide, gets a little bit of class, I mean, post relief here. And I think they might sit a pretty good trip, a lot closer than they did last time. - So what do you think about the barn chains from Sheree DeVoe who's been kind of on fire for the last few years? Does that concern you at all off the layoff and with the barn change? - No, Bobby DeBona does a really good job. He kind of flies under the radar a bit, but essentially a 20% trainer, which is more than good enough here. - So what kind of price do you think you get? Because that was really surprised. Six to one seemed high on this horse. Three to one and the Louisville stakes and three to one at Keenland and the Elkhorn. I think off the layoff and the Barnes, which last time it was a bit of a price, but like you said, it's showed, it's still got some run. And it's stretching out to the distance it seems to prefer, right? So what do you think the price would be on this horse? - I think it depends on what the one horse Zerviev, Zerviev. - Zerviev? I'm not sure. - I'm sorry about the name. But yeah, it just depends. I mean, typically I read wherever he shows up, horses get bet over bet. So his price should be lower than expected. They have that one six to one on the morning line. If that one gets bet a little more, I think we probably could get about nine to two-ish. - At bet. - That's really being optimistic. I think probably closer to three to one, four to one, would probably be more appropriate. - What price would you be willing to take if you were thinking about betting to win on Mr. Cutt? - I think my limit would be three to one. - Okay, and that seems like you could get that. I'm thinking that three to one, four to one range might be right where that one falls. So, and you like that one is, do you think that Mr. Cutt's more likely to win the Ohana honor or are you just looking at the price? - It's a tough call. I mean, Ohana honor, he just doesn't win a whole lot. I mean, he's got a nice stretch there from 2024 to 2025 where you didn't win. So he's no cinch here. So I think Mr. Cutt might be the one to beat, even though the price won't say so. - Yeah, well, it sounds like so. You've got a good horse to build the bets around. So, are you gonna try to beat Ohana honor and replace some gimmicks here in the verticals with Mr. Cutt and if so, what horses are you looking for? - Yeah, I wanna use Mr. Cutt on top. Obviously, I definitely am gonna use Ohana honor. And the horse that really intrigues me at a price is the 12 hammerhead. I like horses that are steadily improving. And this horse you can see through the past performances, back in 2024 when they broke the maiden has just escalated all the way to the point in the last race, the valedictory, one on the synthetic going this distance. And this horse really showed improvement once they went longer. Once this horse went from a mile to a mile and three eighth, you can see the speed figure improvement. This horse just purely runs better. Just didn't get a great draw. But I think Jose Ortiz is good enough and does well in these kind of situations to get this horse competitive and in a spot to make a run at the lead. But I really don't think that horse can win, but I would like to see that horse obviously to show up in the number, you know, exact as tries supers. - What about Zebrav? Are you gonna use him or leave him out? - I'm gonna try to leave that one out if I can because I'm not really fond of the rail draw. It forces I rad to do one of two things either try to get this horse in position early up front or fade back. And then they probably would have to go around quite a few horses. So it puts this horse in a spot where I don't think they really want to be in. Meaning that they'll have to use, or I read will have to use this horse probably earlier than he would want to to get position. And I think that hurts their chances. - So you like Mr. Cutt, you're willing to try to beat Ohana honor. And Zebrav, you see Hammerhead maybe as a price horse underneath. Anybody else that you would be looking to include with those two and say exact as or tries or supers however you would play this race. - I think Balnikov has been keeping good company for a really long time. I know he's another one that really is, he just can't stand San Anita and getting away from there is probably a bonus. But it's really a toss up after those three horses. So after Zebrav, Mr. Cutt, Ohana honor. And then if you want to throw Hammerhead in there after that, it's kind of up for grabs. So in a race like this, if I can get around using Zebrav in the second spot, I will do that well. And usually I like to play, tries in such a fashion where you hit, where you hit the exact a cold and then have a couple of options for third. So in this situation, a bet that I might concoct would be Mr. Cutt on top, Ohana honor, second with Zebrav and Hammerhead for third, and maybe Balnikov at like a $10, $15 increment. - So you're going to try and be Mr. Cutt on top. And then hopefully you're trying to get some price underneath. Hammerhead looks like the kind of the value horse and maybe Zebrav depending on how they bet, although you probably will have that IRAD tax included. And then Balnikov, you have in there in that mix too, or not, was that just? - Yeah, yeah. He's definitely a horse that'll be coming late. I think he's just going to be too far back to win this race, but he's definitely has the class and the closing speed to kind of get in the picture there. - Yeah, the, you know, I don't, oh, go ahead. - No, no. - You're welcome. - I'm going to say I am kind of share your opinion. Most of it, although I am have another horse, you haven't mentioned that I like quite a bit in here. The negative is the post, but divine propose the 11 horse. This horse has been very good going distance of ground. And it, you know, it ran, it's last two races were just a two-short distance. Probably just didn't have anything. They could run it longer and might have just been prepping him for this race. And he's run pretty well. Pretty consistently well. Almost every time he goes out, he's definitely a thing going to improve with the distance. He gets a pretty good turf rider and Murphy, maybe he's capable of working a trip from the 11th of all. I mean, a lot of it will depend on how things go in that first turn. But if you can somehow avoid getting hung three-wide, I think he has a really good chance in here. So that's the horse I'd probably be the most interested in. I was a little surprised that he's five to one in the morning line. Yeah, that's what really kind of got me cold on him. I mean, he does have some races to go to. And like he said, the distance is right up his alley. It's just a matter of working out a trip. And I'm not sold that he's at this level. I mean, he was running these kind of races out west and not really doing much in horses like there goes Harvard. You know, couple of spirit has been pretty sharp. Lost the Fort Washington, but it's tough. He's a tough read for me in this race to be honest. Yeah, I like, obviously I like him quite a bit more. But you know, a lot of it is a trip. And so, but I don't think he's even anything close to five to one. I think it'll be twice that price. Yeah, I'm shocked at that morning line. I mean, it was 15 to one in his last race. So I don't see how he's five to one in here. Not sure where that came from. But if he's five to one, I wouldn't touch him. But I don't I think it'd be much higher. That's why I like him. You know, I think that's Brian. If that's a misprint and it should have been 15 to one. Maybe or I don't know. I it does seem a little, a little off to me. Yeah, I mean, his speed figures are good and competitive, but not five to one in this race. There's other forces would better just better look on paper. Yeah, but we'll see. Yeah, and you know, better posts and stuff. So I'm just going to ignore the morning line, but if he if it's right, you know, I wouldn't be betting him. But I have a feeling he'll be much higher than that. But again, he needs a really good smart right from that post because they start pretty close to the turn. It's a three turn race. And you don't want to get hung wide, three wide on three turns. There's no way you win a race that way. Never, not a ghost anyway. All right. I think we've covered anything else on that one before we move on to the next one. Anything else? I think we got that one. I think we got that one covered. All right. Great. So the next is race number 10, which is the grade two Pegasus, Philly and Mayor turf. This is another turf race. This is only going a mile and a sixteenth for the older Philly's and mayors. Why don't you give us kind of your high level assessment of this race before we dig into the details? Yeah, this is another one that's completely wide open, especially to start the coast to coast pick five on this race. It's really tough. I mean, there's a lot of speed from what I can see from the outside, you know, moving on up the 12 in our time might be the speed of the speed. And one more time will probably have to get involved early just to get a decent position. And that's not even with standing classic Q who also is a candidate for speed of the speed. That being said, I think it kind of opens this race up a bit. The horse that I've gravitated to in this race is the three Dostino to oro. I am kind of an old school DRF person. So I use a lot of angles of the of the pioneers like Dave Litfin. He used to talk a lot about horses that come off the layoff and run a similar buyer speed figure than what they did before the layoff. And usually the next race after that, they come into a little bit of improvement. This happens a lot with the horses that turn two to three, but horses these days are run so lightly that it could apply in this situation where it's early in the year. I mean, this horse turned three to four, but only has seven races total. And looking at everybody in this race, at least from a buyer's speed figure standpoint, it's not a far leap of improvement. I don't believe for this horse to get over the top in a race like this. They were out wide a few times. I think the last three races, even the one they won in the tropical park, Oaks, he was out kind of wide and still one. I think that sets this horse up really good for another step up, you know, last year facing horses like lush lips, Fiona and made a ready. I think this horse has enough to do that Brad Cox does well with these types. And second off the layoff fits the bill. I like this horse quite a bit. Usually with horses like this, I will go up and down, you know, with verticals and horizontals. So doubles, pick threes and any other multi, I can, you know, that I would want to bet plus exact as tries and try to kind of sweep the ticket. Yeah. So you, the pattern you described what I refer to all the time on the podcast as the golden pattern. The second off the go off where the horse, it's for where they have potentially developed some, you know, since the layoff, but you know, before the layoff, they, they, they were younger and less developed. They come back and they have that one tightener that, that gets them fitter. That second off the layoff many times produces kind of a career best effort. So we talk about that a lot on the pod. So I'm always on board with that pattern. I agree with you, it's a real strong thing to look for. I don't see it quite as much as you do in this horse just because the layoff isn't that long from, you know, it's only was off for a, you know, a couple months. I like it a lot more when they've been off six months for a year and that's a lot more time to develop. But as these older turf route horses, they develop a little bit later. And I think it's this horse that got a strong pattern and you're saying you're kind of projecting enough improvement to, to, for its numbers to kind of jump some of the ones that are faster going in. And you hope for arguing, you're hoping you get compensated for it in the price just because it hasn't really run numbers that look fast enough to win here. Is that kind of what you're thinking? Yeah. I mean, you know, if, if you look at everybody's buyer speed figure, you know, I would say somewhere in the mid to mid 90s is probably where the winner will be. This horse was running in 87 last time. I don't think it's a far leap for that horse to get like a 93 94 in this race with a better trip. Obviously things have to, we'll have to go their way a little bit. But I don't think it's, it's a huge stretch for a horse of this caliber to step up just slightly and still win a race like this. No, that makes sense. So, so that, you're getting a pretty good price on that horse. That's why you're kind of licking your chops and saying, okay, how can I play this horse? I might want to look, I call it inside out betting, you know, look through down the verticals to exact as it tries and maybe adjacent races for doubles or pick threes or whatever to see if you like anything else, any other opinions you can hook up with this one. So, let's stick with the verticals right now, who were the horses? What did you think of the favorite in here is kind of tepid. I think it's 9 to 2 with whiskey decision, hour times 5 to 1, Proctor Streets 12 to 1. But my guess is Proctor Street, that's another bad morning line, I think. Yeah, and that was probably going to be like second choice. Yeah. Those are probably the three favorite seven whiskey decision eight Proctor Street 11 in our time, you know, any of those three, you, are you against any of those three or are you think any of those three are strong that you'd want to include? Yeah, I definitely want to include both of them. Whiskey decision, you know, Chad Brown does this a lot with his horses where they come off the layoff like this and they they run really, really top efforts. You know, he has this uncanny knack of doing that. And then he gets the top rider in Flavin Pratt, who is just a master of timing. The eight Proctor Street looks very good, you know, three of the last four, they won. The perfect thing, she didn't get an ideal trip, she was out a little wide and kind of faded late and lost to another Chad Brown runner. That's the favorite. But three out of the last four in razor sharp form, 12 to one seems to be an awful stretch. Maybe it was just with, you know, wishful thinking that if they put this horse at 12 to one, you know, post time, they'll be six to one, but I really think this horse is probably going to be second choice. Yeah. I mean, it's coming off re a straight three out of four and it's a stakes race win at Churchill and it's had a it, you know, one of stakes or allow a high level allowance it at Keenlyn. I just don't see how it's 12 to one and you know, and it's got good connections to it, just it just seemed like a horse that everyone's going to gravitate towards. Probably like you said, he's that one of the Chad horse. And then heredia, the two is the horse that I really have a big question mark on. I want to like this horse, but has been kind of disappointing in the states and, and, you know, obviously, this horse isn't getting any younger either. But I think this horse has a good performance in there. And with the I also think this horse is going to float up in odds eight to one morning line, I think this horse is going to be a little bit higher than that. Just for the fact of the adjustment of proctor street getting bet. That makes this horse a lot more interesting at, let's say, 10, 12 to one rather than eight to one, you know, that's where the adjustment and looking at the board, things like that will come into play as to how I would use heredia, but I'm gravitating towards using that horse underneath destiny, you know, destino to oral. Yeah. I am. I'm pretty high on heredia. I mean, she's, I agree it took her a little while to find her form, but I think her, her last two races are buried good, you know, and they were both in great, great one races where if the favorites are going to become out of, you know, lower level stakes races. And, but I think that logistics uses in both those last two. And, you know, I expect this that horse was had some pretty good European form. I think it's actually a better form now than it looks. And like you said, probably be a much better price than the favorite. So for me, of the ones you've talked about, that would be the one that caught my eye in here as a potential play. Anything else in this one that you were looking at, or is that kind of, yeah, that's those, usually, you know, even when I'm playing multis, I tend not to go more than four deep. If I can avoid it, I like to narrow and play skinnier tickets in that regard because I like to kind of up the ante and play them for, you know, two, three, four, five dollars and try to cash and when I hit, I hit good. Well, yeah, I mean, I always, I won't, I always try to encourage people to, you know, tighten those tickets up. You know, where you have opinions, just build it around your opinions. And then if you don't have a strong opinion, then, you know, that's where you need to spread some. But, you know, you want to try to keep it as tight as possible. So that makes a lot of sense. What, there's one of the horse I was interested in, just get your opinion on that one. The six horse, Caitlin, her greatness, you have any opinion one way or another on that one. Yeah, if this horse was, if this race was run on the synthetic, I would love this horse. But, you know, she, she does have good forms, she does run well on the turf. But I just don't think it's her strong suit. She fits here class-wise for sure. I mean, she's, she's been running really good races against some really good horses like she feels pretty pondering, ocean club, you know, she's keeping the company with the best of them. I just not 100% sure that this is her best surface. Yeah, I mean, it's, you could argue it. But for me, I, I mean, I think probably her best race was, you know, the grade one Queen Elizabeth II, where she ran third, but that was the, she feels pretty and she ran a good race. I thought, you know, that was on the turf. And, you know, her most recent race on the turf, she didn't run poorly on it all either. So I don't know, I think she's kind of neutral, but you might be right, and I'm more interested just because of the price. But to me, if you, if you assume that she isn't any worse on a turf than the synth, I think she fits right in here and she might get overlooked a little bit because she certainly will, because classic cues not going to be six to one either. All right. So, you know, there'll be some shifting of the odds up and down between certain horses. I think Caitlin, her greatness and her idea are the beneficiaries of beneficiaries of that. If you like them because they're going to be higher, I think, than their morning line. So yeah, classic cue is a strange horse, because that horse could just flat out fly early and then it's had races where it's run well from off the pace. You just don't know what they're going to do with that horse. Yeah. I mean, at least on paper, it doesn't look like there's a whole hell of a lot of speed. So I would gather, they're probably going to try to be more forward, you know, kind of sitting a trip next to in front of sort of around in our time. And that's probably where they're most comfortable. Yeah. In our time would clearly be one that you'd expect to be going for the lead from that post. And there's a couple other horses with speed right on the far outside that might kind of be forced to use early. So maybe the pace will cook up, it's hard to tell. You never know what the riders in these surf races, what they're going to do. Yeah, that's one of my biggest gripes, you know, where you look at a card or particular race and you feel like they're going to run the race a certain way and then it totally goes the opposite. Whether it's like, you know, it seems like there's a lot of speed and then everybody in the pad, it's like, oh, well, we don't want to go and set up a speed duel and then one horse goes and it's all over. Yeah. Well, that's why you have people involved, that's what you have to, you know, they read the racing form too and they think there's a lot of them think they're really clever and smart. So you never know what they're going to do. So that's why they run the race and you just, you just got to have to decide what are the most likely scenarios and hope that unfolds way you anticipated because sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't. Well, you know, you know what funny is in the day and age that we are in right now in what I call the CAW age, you kind of have to be right more than once because of the pricing. Obviously, you know, favorites are going to get pounded, but sometimes those last minute hits on certain horses really affect your payout. So if you can kind of predict the market in that fashion and get ahead of it and understand and know where horse might be the price that you think they will be, that is probably where the effectiveness and your betting kind of lies because if you're right twice, you should probably be okay, but it's hard to tell because sometimes, you know, that late money is really, really difficult to predict at times. Yeah, but I think you have to make an attempt to figure out what those off odds are. You have to spend more time on it than you used to for all the reason you said, and that's why I spend time on it like trying to, I'm not trying to pick on morning line makers. I'm trying to help the players realize that horse is not going to be the price that the morning line states. If you're assuming that's going to be the price, you're going to be sadly disappointed in that race. And like, you know, if I can see somebody saying, oh, wow, it was a proctor, yeah, proctor street looks, you know, really good. Wow, look at that 12 to one, I'm going to unload on that horse, the horse is not going to be 12 to one. So don't even think about that, you know, it'll probably be three or four to one. So they, and you got to know that ahead of time where you can't, you're going to, it's going to mess you all up. You're going to try to scramble about, well, how are you going to bet the race because it's not, you know, that's, you're not getting the price to expect it. Now, sometimes you'll get it wrong, but you got to try to kind of anticipate how the CWs bet, how the public bets and factor that in and kind of plan around that. So I totally agree with you. And that's why I spend, maybe too much time on that kind of thing because some people say, you know, I don't care, you know, you can't, you just got to watch the odds board. Well, that's, that's hard to do now. You can't trust the odds board anymore. You got to kind of anticipate what it's going to be after the betting closes. Yeah. No, it's definitely more of a challenge than it used to be, but it's, it's not impossible. No, no, no. Anyway. So, you know, it gives us a fighting chance and, and honestly, sometimes it works in our favor where a horse that you like and you're like, oh, this horse would probably go up in odds and it goes up higher than you even anticipate. I've had that happen quite a bit. So it just all depends on what the bettors are feeling like and then that last minute rush is really the deciding factor and it's hard to predict, but it's not impossible. So real quickly on your, this race, you know, you like destined, you're all a lot. So they may talk a little bit about what you're going to do with this horse. May, are you thinking of playing any doubles from the prior race into this race? Yeah. Absolutely. I, especially using Mr. Cut and Hammerhead into destined, the, the keynote at Oro. I think those prices will probably be pretty solid from race to race. And I like all of those horses. So I think it, it just lines up to be something that I'll take a stab at also probably going to start out a coast to coast, pick five. I like that bet quite a bit at the dollar increment with the C.A.W. And the C.A.W. Yeah. Right. The C.A.W. is locked out. It makes for a really good bet. So he's pretty good, even when favorites do win. But I think there's, there's quite a bit of an opportunity. I'll probably play more than one ticket, singling Destiny No to Oro on a few. And then using, you know, going a little deeper using heredia, whiskey decision and Proctor Street on the other ticket. So what about the verticals? Are you going to, how would you play that? You'll be keen. Yeah, I assume. How, what, what are you thinking about there? It depends on the price at post time, if we're at 12 soon, you'll get your 10 or 12. Say you get double digit odds on the three. Yeah. If we get that kind of price, I'm definitely going to try to nail that horse on a win ticket, obviously. And then might go up and down with, you know, exact as tries supers with those same four horses. So when you say up and down, just so the listeners know what you mean, you have a Destiny No, DRO, the three horse on top on some tickets and the two slot and some tickets and maybe the plan tries even the three slot, is that what you're talking about? Correct. But mostly I'll concentrate on that horse being second because I use, I tend to use exactas with the horse I like second as a place bet. So I wouldn't play a place bet. I'd play, for example, whiskey decision and Proctor Street over, just you know, to oral as, in effect, a place bet. You know, because of the fact that I like to believe that I can be pretty accurate, that it's not really going to affect, you know, this horse running second, I think I can nail the winner. Yeah, and that's the, I totally agree that the place bet's not normally a good bet. If you have any opinions outside of the horse, you're going to bet to win, don't bet it's a place. Like you said, bet it underneath the horses, you're afraid might beat you. And, you know, that's a much better way to play it than to play a place bet because then, you know, you're, you're cut offs really, really reduced. So that, I mean, your payoffs really reduced. So that's good. Do you think about, you're thinking what exact is that tried? Do you play tries and what on the verticals? Do you, what are you focus on exact is exact as I'm a real big exact of players, you know, $20, $30 exact as I like to nail my opinion. I don't typically box. And, you know, I like to, to really press my opinion. And if I lose, I lose. We, we live to fight another day, but when I'm right, I try to, try to crush them. Great. It doesn't sound like you're big into the more exotic verticals, like, right? No, I'm actually kind of curious that people that play, you know, high fives and, and supers a lot. I have a tough time with those kind of bets. You know, usually when I, if I hit or play a super, it's usually, you know, I try to nail the, the try cold with a few horses underneath for like three to five dollars and, and try to just nail it that way. And I usually don't fish for giant payoffs. It's something that's sort of fairly obvious that isn't going to pay a lot. But if you have it at a higher increment, you can make some money and get more value out of it. Yeah. That makes sense. So focus your opinion. For me, for tries and supers, I'm usually not only interested in if it's a big field, first of all, I want to have a big field. Because if I'm going to play those, I'm really am looking for a payout and the other is, I've got to like, not like the favorite and it's got to be a favorite that's fairly strong. So like a race like this where the favorites are kind of lukewarm. You're not really getting much by fading the favorites. So, but you know, in some races where you've got a heavy favorite, you think could be out of the number. You know, then you're getting super value because a lot of times, you know, if it runs a bad race, you can bet it out of the two spot, you can bet out of the three spot, you bet out of the four spot. So I mean, that's the way you get real value is if you can fade a fairly strong favorite and you've got some secondary opinion, like a horse you like in this race, the three. For me, it would probably be the two. For me, the horses, I would probably key would be the two and then maybe the six is the other one I kind of like. So though, if I were playing exact, you know, for a win bet, I'd probably look to play the two and I would probably box those two and exact as, but I probably wouldn't go into the tries or supers just because there's no favorite I'm fading out of the money. You know, I might play a little bit of a bit, but I'm really looking in those real extreme and vertical exotics, those are when I'm against a favorite. That's usually where you can really get value in those when you can get that favorite completely out. It's got to be like a fairly strong favorite, you know, an odds on favorite or at least less than two to one. I mean, I don't see that in this race. No, no, you're absolutely right. I agree totally. But I've noticed doing, you know, what I'm trying to do on a big day with favorites in there, as long as they don't win, you might be able to get more value on a big day than you would on a Wednesday or Thursday or something like that. So I'm just going to try to keep my eye on everything before this point to see the crowd and how the betting payouts, things like that. But I would not care as much on a day like Pegasus Day than a normal regular Saturday or something. I'd be probably on board with fading the chalk completely. But in this sort of scenario, sometimes when you just beat a favorite, it's still going to pay pretty decent regardless on the big days. Yeah, especially when the favorites aren't that strong, right? But there's no heavy favorite than you're not getting hurt as much when they come in, especially if you got, you know, your 10 to one shot on top, so yeah, it's just for me, that's why I probably don't try to get past the exact as the bets. And it sounds like you weren't planning to in this case either, so no, probably not. I mean, I might for a depending on what my bank rolls like at this point of the day, you know, I might try a few things, but definitely just you know, the aura is going to be the focal point. All right. So let's move on to the 11th race is the first one on the dirt. This is grade two inside information going seven furlongs for older fillies and mayors. What do you think about this one kind of at the high level looks like? This is another race where it's maybe even more of a lukewarm favorite. It looks like the favorites 4 to 1, Jody's pride. The one horse, Indie Bay is nine to two, those two look like the favorites, pretty soft favorites. So what's your opinion on that or kind of in the race in general? Yeah. I'm with you. These favorites don't look that great. I mean, Indie Bay through a clunker in the Catillion, which you can kind of forgive. But really wasn't beaten too much before that, you know, ran into echo sound who put the whipping on them up at Saratoga and this horse is probably going to get bet quite a bit. You know, the home team, Safi Joseph, I read again, like you said, the I read tax is definitely going to be an effect. It wouldn't surprise me if that horse is the clear cut favorite, but by not much, I mean, Jody's pride looks decent. She has races that would win this for sure, but she's really wildly inconsistent. I mean, maybe it's the factor of them running on turf and dirt and switching back and forth, but he's a hard read for me in this spot. As for the rest of the field, they're all pretty much evenly matched. I mean, I can definitely see quite a few of these. There's not many horses in this race that I couldn't see winning. I mean, maybe dazzling move. I don't think they want to go this distance in Chloré, Baray, probably not just a little light on speed figures, but everybody else, you could kind of make a case for it. And I think this race is kind of wide open. One magic filly is a horse that peaks my interest because of the fact that they can sit a decent trip behind some speed here. I came in the zeit-lose last year, who was pretty sharp at the time. And then kind of improved form. I would like to see them really make a concerted effort to sit a little further back, though. That's kind of my only gripe, and that's sort of what I think, especially on the cutback. They ran two races at a mile. I think that puts this horse a little bit further back than, let's say, a stalking position, not quite too far of a closer. And I think that might be the sweet spot, especially with Grand Job in this race, who probably is the speed of speed, and we'll be out there zooming it. Beyond belief has some zip, Indie Bay will probably have to get involved, especially from the one hole. Necessity has some quickness too, so it might get a little hot up front. And I think one magic filly off on the cutback looks really interesting here. It's kind of interesting, you said that, because when I looked at this, I thought, Grand Job's going to go, no one's going to want to hook up with that horse. And you got, like, eight other horses that all want the exact same trip that you just described for one magic filly. They're going to all want to be sitting off, and they can't all be in the same place. Yeah, there's going to be some jockey decisions here. Because the other horse that I liked, the 12 Verity, has that same, you know, they all, like you said, want that same kind of trip. But I think being outside of Grand Job puts this horse in a better position. I agree. I think if you want to be on the outside in this race, but even then, you could, you're really risked. Right. You get hung out wide. Yeah. So that's why I'm thinking, you know, this race may end up either just going to Grand Job because everybody can see the lead and the horse just goes and, and, you know, they don't know and decides to put pressure on until it's too late. Or there's somebody who can kind of sit behind all the other horses that are, you know, pressing and stalking and then, and, you know, get an inside out trip and win it. So that was just from an overall race shape. I thought this was kind of interesting. This is one of these races where especially going seven furlongs tends to be a little more tactical with the riders that have more time to make a decision going to that first turn. You know, they're all going to be jockeying for the same position. So get really interesting, I think. So is anybody that you thought is it one magic family, the one or is anybody else that you were thinking was going to be, you know, potentially a value play for you in here? Yeah. Probably the 10 and the 12 one magic, Philly and Verity. I'm not too enthusiastic about this race, although I think it does have some chaos potential. This one really gave me fits and I really don't know what to do with this race as of yet. This is a tough one for sure. Yeah. It really is. It could potentially cook up like if everybody realizes, oh my god, I'm going to get a hung seven wide, if I don't step on the gas, you know, you might get two or three of them punch, you know, punch the button early and it cooks up, right? Or they might all just try to, you know, don't want to engage early and drop back and set it up for a grand job. But given seven furlongs, you know, if some of the riders panicked early, it could really cook up. And like you said, then you could be total chaos meltdown kind of a situation, right? Yeah. That would really upgrade sterling silver for me. If that's where I decide things will happen, I like their last race in the rampart, kind of one going away. And I think they're going to be probably the best closer in this race, whether they can get it done or not. I mean, Gulsing Park notoriously isn't a place where closures win a lot, but they can win when things get crazy up front. And this race definitely has that sort of potential. And if the price kind of goes up higher, I'd take a longer look at sterling silver. Yeah. It seems like I can't believe that worse going to be eight to one, though. Do you think you get eight on that? I think you might get that or close to it, six, seven to one, maybe. But I don't think anybody's going to just get bet off the board here. I think they're all going to be kind of the, you know, from three to one to eight to one. I think a lot of horses are going to fall in that territory. Yeah. I mean, if you got eight to one, then sterling silver makes a lot of sense. I just didn't expect that. I mean, she might be vying for favoritism, I think, but coming off of some good wins, and she's kept some pretty good company in her entire career, you know, she's, she's not a bad horse. So, so it sounds like for you, this is not a race you're, you're licking your chops to play and you're looking maybe at the 10 or the 12. But this is probably not a race you're going to be making a bunch of bets just within the race. It's more like if you're going to use it in horizontal, you got to figure out what you're going to do. Exactly. Yeah. I would say this is probably one of a spread race for me where I would go more than four deep just to try to move past this race to be honest and, and I would tend to chuck out the favorites and not use Indie Bay or Jodie's pride if I can avoid it. But I don't think I can because they're pretty good. So you, your forces then would be one magic Philly Verity Sterling Silver and then Jodie's pride and one of the two, but not both. Yeah. Okay. So one of the other two, this is kind of a spread race for you. So for me, I have the horses that you talked about. I think Verity is the one I'm most interested in just because I think that horse has a lot of talent and upside. But, and you know, the outside post means that the least a rider can see what's happening in front of it. And I kind of like this rider. I think he's under underrated Shem Vincent Shem and I'm not sure if I pronounced it right Shem and I don't. But he's good. He's a pretty good rider and he might actually decide to kind of take back. And if he does, I think the horse is a chance. I think if he, you know, just tries to get that just off the leader trip, he's going to get hung really wide. That's a tough way to win. But so that one, I was kind of interested in. But the one I actually like the most in here is a horse. You kind of dist and that was the five Clare Beret who are Clare Beret and Richard, I'd say Clare Beret, but you know, that horse when, when Safi first got a whole horse, the horse ran just two monster races in the summertime. And then to me, it was just the classic horse reacted to those two big efforts that said that horse back, it ran a couple of clonkers, then they gave it time off. It came back in after the layoff and probably needed that race. I think it did not have a good trip. It did lose to, you know, Sterling Silver in there. But I thought it had some excuses plus it was off the layoff, probably a prep for this. I like to cut back in distance to seven furlongs. You know, one turn races are really good for this horse. And you know, I thought her best race was probably the second to Vava. You know, she ran off the screen and that one race didn't really be anything, but she was in a good race, Zaitlos, Vava, some other good horses, and ran really well, did not quit at all. Only got beat three quarters of the length going seven furlongs. She runs back to that race, she wins in here, I think. And second off the layoff, I don't see any reason why she might, you know, run a big in here. So, for me, that is the key in here for this race. I'm all on the Claret Barrett or Claret Barrette, or I don't know how you say it. Yeah, I think it's some combination. Yeah. But, you know, it's interesting that you bring up those two races because I had a different view of that handicap in May and June, the Chicago. The first one I deemed it a perfect trip. They won by 19, didn't really, you know, turn a hair. And I also thought that for the second race there, the Chicago, I think they got a really good setup and ended up running really well. Those figures just seemed like too big of an outlier for me to believe that this horse is that fast under, you know, normal conditions. Obviously, they can run that fast, but I don't think as a whole or the body of work represents those two figures and I just dismissed them as, you know, perfect trips, which this horse could get in this race, honestly. So we'll see. But I would side against it myself personally, but I can totally understand that, you know, the opposite look on that. Yeah. I mean, if all she had was that one number off the screen against, you know, suspect competition, but she backed it up against really good horses. I thought in their next one, and then I think that just set her back. I mean, those, those were two, like you said, monster efforts. But remember, that was after the barn change. True. So, you know, to me, it's a whole new horse. And then I'm, I'm going to forgive the next two just because I think she reacted to that race. I said, but she probably got some a little stress fracture or something. You know, a lot of times they run that fast. It's, you know, the horses are just frail and they don't stand up to that. But I thought her comeback effort wasn't bad at all. And she kind of made a move, got a little tired late, set her up perfect for this, I think. So I'm definitely higher on it. And then you are, I'm not sure what price will get, but I think, you know, it is saffial. The other thing I'll notice, she had a nice workout, she outworked Skippy. And recently, which I thought was a good sign, although, you know, he's not exactly going to be crammed up for workouts and stuff, right? She's a, she's probably, she's probably should, but at least she did. And so anyway, we'll see what the price is. You know, it's kind of hard. I'm glad, you know, I read it's not on this horse because then I probably wouldn't get a price. Right. You get the tax. You know, the rider gets mount back after riding her last time and, you know, he, I didn't think the ride was that bad. No, Mike is pretty good. I mean, he, he, it's hard to tell exactly, you know, at this stage of his career, what he's actually good at. But he does ride winners. I mean, he, he can bring a horse home. So I think flying under the radar, this horse is probably going to be higher than 12 to one. If you like this horse, I, I would never talk to you off this one, especially at that price and a race like this, where it's, it's pretty wide open. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. So all right. So, um, let's move on. Now we've got the two big ones, the, the grade one race is coming up. Um, first we've got the Pegasus turf going a mile and eight for older horses, um, another, you know, uh, tough to turn or three turn what anyway, turf route. Um, so what are you thinking here at high level, another easy race, right? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this one actually is a lot easier than, than most of the others. Oh, good. All right. I, I kind of think that program trading may lay over this field, uh, this, this horse kind of likes these sort of layoffs, Chad Brown trains this horse in that fashion. Um, I, I think the races that they lost this year, especially the one in August and October, they're just too short. Um, I, I think this horse likes to go long. Their mile and eight is, is probably where this horse is best. If the Bernard Baruch was a mile and eight, they would have won. Um, so I, I, I just think this horse fits to a tee and there's really not too much in here. I'm not afraid of the horses coming in from the West Coast. Um, although they have been better this year and in 2025, then they had been previously, um, so I would gravitate and think that Cabo spirit might have a shot, uh, because of the fact that they're going to have, um, a little bit of a pace advantage. But, you know, a seven year old coming out the Gulfstream for the first time after a pretty big win in the San Gabriel is not something I would enjoy heading, but I don't think this horse is impossible, but I still think program trading might be the, the most solid favorite on the card. Yeah, I mean, he doesn't get to the races very often, but he usually runs a good race. And like you said, you could make the case that, um, a mile and eighth is, is more in his wheelhouse and a mile. And so that's what he's going to get in here, right? Absolutely. And then test score is very interesting to me, because I thought that Hollywood Derby that this horse ran was very, very good, just didn't get the ideal kind of stretch run. I don't think they were going to beat Salamis, but they would have been a lot closer. Um, it was a bad, it was a bad stretch run. I mean, the horse really got kind of stopped, right? Yeah, and, and I think that, that race was a little bit stronger than it may appear. And I, I think that horse has a good effort in them. I mean, after that major dude is a horse that's probably his best days are behind him chasing the crown is interesting, not really sure what to do with that horse. I mean, the makers in these kind of spots are always dangerous. And this horse has some performances that you can really say that this horse is probably better than they look on paper. And you know, it's kind of like the odd man out as far as connections go is maker Rosario. When you got Johnny V and Shug and, you know, Mike Smith and everybody else, they, they might be the odd man out that has a better shot than what it appears. Yeah, I agree on chasing the crown. He's run race is good enough to win in here. He has to get the trip and you never, with Joel, you never know what you're going to get. But the good Joel, um, can put great rides in these kind of races. And that's why I like playing him on a horse is one of the morning line. I don't want him on the two to one job, but I, I don't mind playing him on the 20 to one. Ren, Ren good in this race last year. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, he can handle the track. So yeah, I mean, I wish he had a little better post, but, you know, that's just going to add to the price probably. So, um, anything else to have a few opinions, but I would make sure you've, uh, kind of covered the ground. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Um, there's a horse. I, uh, for me, this is the horse. I like the most on the card and that's the four one stripe who, um, he's, uh, a gram motion runner, um, this gram motion got, uh, he's got a connection to South Africa and he's been bringing horses over and having some pretty good success with those horses. And I thought of watching all the races in South, and I've been, you know, taking a look at the South African races before they run. And he said quite a few of these. I thought this one was as good as any of them one stripe, um, it took a little time. I think to hit its stride in the US and you got to remember it, there's this long quarantine, a different hemisphere, you know, across Atlantic ship, all these things. So, you know, some of these horses may take some time to acclimate, but, um, that last race, this horse was a beast. And I think it finally got comfortable in the US and that talent showed in South Africa came through and that race and that was at Gulf Stream. So you know what to handle the surface, um, to me, it runs back to that race and gets a trip in here, uh, very dangerous, it's really kind of interesting. I don't get it. I don't necessarily like it, but, um, they, they brought its rider from South Africa and to ride in this race, um, uh, Johnny, he had some different riders. Um, so this is the, the rider who was, who's won a bunch of races on this horse, uh, but not in the US as, so I don't necessarily like that because I'd rather have horses, uh, riders that are familiar with race in the US, but it won't hurt his price. I don't think, you know, I probably a better price than to be with the US rider. So, and he certainly knows the horse, I mean, that had success with him. So, um, this horse, I think could get overlooked and I really like it. So to me, that, and I do respect program trading. So, you know, kind of in your, um, exact a saver kind of bet, I would probably play this horse underneath him as a saver, but I think there's, I, I'm not as, um, totally convinced program trading lays over as you do. And I think there's some other ones including chasing the crown who could threaten him. The other one, I think is where other two more, I think are kind of a threat that you haven't mentioned. One is for Washington who just seems to always get overlooked and he got a tough post, but, you know, he likes to drop back and fly late. So I don't know if he can win, but I think he could get into the exact or try at a price. So he'd be one I'd use with one stripe. And then the horse just to the inside of him, beach gold. I think that's another horse. It's very solid and, you know, gets the good post and has a pretty good turf rider and it's in good form. You know, he can handle the track, he's coming off a pretty good race that, you know, I thought in his last race, um, he got an okay trip for that. It could tuck you down. He had run well. Again, I don't know about winning, but that's the horse. I think maybe with the right trip could get into the exotic. So for me, this is a race where, um, I, you know, I really like one stripe and I'd be keen on him. And, you know, probably trying to hook him up like you talked about before, even in some of the horizontal, you know, like with, how, how did you pronounce Clairé Beret? Is that I just said? Yeah. Clairé Beret. Yeah. Clairé Beret. Ryan. So it kind of makes sense. So, um, you know, with that horse and, uh, it maybe even go back, uh, to already in the prior race. So, um, you know, we have a little bit of a difference with painting on here, but that's what makes, uh, racing so interesting. Oh, absolutely. I mean, you're, your case for one stripe may have convinced me. I mean, I, I, I think the only question mark really for that horse is the distance. It's, it's, I'm not sure why they haven't run longer ever, but here we go. Yeah. Well, that is a good question. But, but watch his, I don't know if you've watched the, that last race, but, um, I, there was nothing in that race that would cause me to think he's not going to go a little farther than a mile because, yeah, I mean, you stormed in that race. Yeah. Awesome. They're good enough on most levels to do that, um, but yeah, this is another one that can go a lot of ways. I mean, that Wolfie's Dyna ghost race, uh, the Fort Lauderdale, that horse broke the track record and, and really had their own way. So horses like Cogino and Beach Gold could in effect get better trips, um, and, and not be favored in here. Yeah, and, you know, and, and given the post this time, you know, Beach Gold might get a much better trip than Cogino, so, um, and probably a better price, that's, so I was thinking, but, yeah, but for me, one stripe, I think could be a really nice horse and I, like I said, the, the rider is an interesting twist on this one. Um, so many actually makes it and, uh, you know, to the race and rides, uh, I'll be interesting. I kind of like it because I don't think it's much of a downgrade, um, and it might bump the price up because no one's going to know who the heck this guy is. Sure. Exactly. All right. Anything else on that one for you go to the big race, the, the Pegasus? No. I mean, at least for me, that race is probably out of this late pick five sequence. I think will be has the potential be the most formful. Yeah. And you're going to kind of play it that probably in the pick speed and kind of play it that way, kind of go through program trading. Yes. Yeah. There'll be tickets where I single that horse, um, and, and maybe use, uh, test score, program trading, you, you sold me on one stripe, I'll throw that one in there, um, and then Fort Washington because that horse tends to beat me when I don't need it too. Yeah, he's not, he's a pretty, uh, consistent, hard knocking horse. I mean, he's not a superstar, but he always finishes, right? So he runs really good. I mean, that Arlington million was, you know, I, I'd put that up against any race in here. It's just the post position is bad. Yeah. Um, it's really tough, um, but Union can work out a trip. He's done it before. Yeah. And for his style, it might not matter. I mean, it's probably the, they're just going to have to lag back, right? Well, you can see in last year's Fort Lauderdale in, in 2025, he was eight out of nine in that race and, and kind of made the most of it and almost beat major dude. And then after that, in the Pegasus, uh, in the same race, uh, really just got the worst of it. And was probably running as good as anybody at the end of that race, but just didn't have a shot. Yeah. We'll see. Yeah. I mean, he two years in a row. Yeah. And you know, he probably is going to have to either get really lucky or give up too much ground to win, but he could certainly hit the board, I think. Absolutely. All right. So let's go to the grade one Pegasus stakes. This is a mile and eighth or older horses. It's always an interesting race on the calendars, kind of at a weird spot nowadays where, you know, a lot of the big horses have retired, but a few of them stick around and you got, um, you know, the newly turned four year olds trying some of those, you know, that are have some upside going against the older established horses. So kind of gave us your high level view of this year's Pegasus stakes. Yeah. So it's a really interesting race, not as strong as you would want, but there's a big field. Um, I only thought there were really three horses that could actually win this race and it would be disco time, banishing and Ted Penn Street. Everybody else is kind of running for minor awards. I know white abario is eight for ten at Gulfstream, but I would have liked to see this horse run after they scratched him in the breeders cup, um, at least run one time between, you know, from, what was it? November 1st to now, uh, they trained up. He seems to be okay, but he's a seven year old. I mean, how many more good performances does he have in him? I mean, he's still still kind of kicking. He didn't run that poorly in in the Whitney, which was a strange race in itself. Um, and the Met Mile was, there was a lot to be desired, but it was the first time off a layoff since March. So, uh, he's a tough read, but at a short price, I would tend to, to gravitate away from that horse, um, and then kind of throw downfield underneath with horses like poster and brother Kenny, who I think has a, has a good shot to hit the board here at a huge price. Well, do you like about brother Kenny? He's going to be a giant price. Um, he does close well. I was actually, uh, at the Indiana Derby this year in July, and that horse ran a pretty decent race that day, um, behind tip top Thomas and Cole battle, who in this race wouldn't really make a dent, to be honest with you. But since that point, this horse ran at four different tracks with a, that 93 buyer, I think the setup might be okay here because this pace projects to be pretty quick. Yeah, I was going to ask you about that. And if you look at it, it's hard to imagine even with today's writers, how this isn't a fast pace, right? That's what I'm saying. There, there really doesn't seem to be a way that this isn't fast because Mika has to go. And I think that everything kind of predicates off of that, um, disco time will have to get positioned and it's pretty quick, naturally, um, and then everybody else is going to line up. Full Toronto. I, I, I can't see that horse being more than a length of two from the, from the top and put back to the road. How's he going? The road is going to be there. Right. I think he has to go all out. Right. Yeah. Captain Cook can't be too far off it. You know, there, there's a lot of speed, right? Right. And, and that's why tap and street is probably the, the horse that I like the most. I think he gets the best trip, got a weak field to beat in that, uh, optional clamor. By design, um, you know, it was just the starting point. Since then his trained excellent looks very, very good, um, in training. And I think he's sitting on a top effort. Yeah, um, if you look at, um, you know, one of the things about red cox is he likes to find soft spots when he can, especially if we're like coming off a layoff, he's the king of soft spots. Yes, he is. And, you know, like you said, he found a really, a soft spot and got the race into it. And if you look at his other horse in the race, another good horse, you have, you mentioned him, but you haven't really talked about him is, um, disco time, and he did the same thing. This horse was showed a lot of talent as a three year old. He brought him back in a super soft spot, you know, uh, bonner park or whatever, um, and, uh, and then he ran pretty well, but then second off the layoff with that tightener, he just freaks, right? And that race at aqueduct. So you could kind of project similar kind of improvement with the band street, right? It was probably, you know, had beat just come at beaten sovereignty earlier in the year, the only horse to beat sovereignty last year. Um, if anything, he's got as much talent as disco time or more, you know, he got the tie-in or now, and this is the target race, right? You'd expect that big leap forward. And like you said, uh, I watched some of his workouts and, you know, they're, they're definitely good. It's go. You know, it was almost bad for desk, the way they were having him gallop out huge. I mean, just, they just just kept going and going and going and going. I'm like, are you going to go around again kind of thing? So, uh, you know, between those two and disco time, just freaked, you don't know if he's going to go back to back, but Brad Cox is pretty good about getting horses to run well in these big races. And to me, you know, if one of his two run big, one of them will win. And how often does Brad Cox have two horses in a big race and both of them not fire, you know, it's probably going to be tough for somebody other than one of those two to win, I would think. Yeah. I mean, disco time has some knocks. I mean, this is the first time against older horses through the rail, which is an ideal. And the price isn't going to be great. Um, you know, any one of those horses that disco time beat wouldn't really make a dent in this field. So that's concerning as well, but he does have some pure talent and is purely fast. So he has to be considered a contender, but I don't think this is the ideal kind of situation for horse like disco time, especially at eight to five on the morning line. Yeah. I agree. I mean, again, though, just not to harp on it, but to pan street's not going to be six to one. Not any, any close to six to one, he'll probably buy it for favoritism with his level of me. I don't. I'm guessing maybe disco time will be favored because, you know, the speed figures play such a big role in the favors that he ran that big number. But to pan street with that, everyone's going to see that win over sovereignty and the connections are pretty good, so, uh, you know, play it's our, uh, Brad Cox. So yeah, I mean, I, you know, I don't know which one will be favored. I'm guessing maybe disco time, but I'm not sure. But neither one are going to be a big price. But to me, this is the one race. I, I'm not going to try to beat the chalk, um, uh, I'm kind of thinking one of those two would win it. I probably won't be betting it the race at all, but, um, so are you, what are you thinking about from betting standpoints or, uh, and he said there was a banishing who that, that old guy, um, you know, he usually runs his race and he'll be a price. Are you thinking he could beat both of the, um, Cox horses, you're thinking maybe a win bet. He certainly can. He certainly can. Uh, you know, getting Jose Ortiz, who's ridden him before, um, just missed on him twice. Uh, you know, there's really not much to banish and can't do, whether it's six for longs or mile and eight, he can win wherever, however, he just needs a trip. I think he drew very, very well in this race. The post position is excellent in comparison with how this race kind of shapes up effectively. He could follow, um, disco time around the track and, and kind of swing out and make his run. Whether he's good enough or not is another story. And the price is another question mark. I don't know, you know, he's obviously not going to be one of the top three choices. But after that, it's, it gets a little murky, um, you know, Captain Cook has some races that, that be okay in here. White O'Barrill is probably going to be third choice. That's what I'm thinking. And then after that, it's, it's really hard to get to anybody else. I mean, Medicaid road, who's eligible for first level allowance conditions still, um, might get action just based off the connections alone. Yeah. I think he will. Um, and his form's not bad, I mean, he just can't win races like this. He hasn't yet. Would he surprise me if he won, no, but I, I, I can't back a horse like that in a race like this. No, but I just think in terms of taking money, you know, he's got, um, you know, yeah. He's the takeout reducer. He's got grade one races galore and he hits the board more often than not. And he's trained by Bob Bafford. So he's got to take some money, right? You would be the favorite. Yeah. No. Yeah. You know, he's not going to be the favorite. And skip you long stocking. You know, it's a popular horse and he's trained by Safi and it's in Florida. So you think, you know, he'll have his, his fans as well. And he's not going to be a favorite again, but he takes the money. So I would think banishing, you know, you, you probably get a pretty square price on him. And I can't say exactly what, but, um, I'll take 10 to one. I might be really apt to put him on top if he's 10 to one. Yeah. I think eight to 10 to one might be very, very possible. Just kind of depends on how much they hammer the Cox horses, right? They, they, they, I think they're going to get destroyed. And I think they're really going to lay into those two horses. Yeah. There's a good chance for sure. Like I said, the one thing I am confident about this stuff to predict the prices on this race, but to pass free won't be six to one at that part. I'm very confident. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. You could, you could take that to the bank. Yeah. So I think we're kind of the, I just echo one thing you said in white of barrio and I kind of brought this up last week. There was some, a similar horse that had gotten scratched out of the breeders cup and had missed a little bit of work out time since and, you know, white of barrio has got scratched and his workouts have not looked good since and they passed on a race. They were going to run in, you know, the crack record on these horses that are really bad. That's a mean he can't win because he certainly popped races that he could win with. But if he really is like the third betting choice of four to one, I would be way against him. You know. He's a pass for me and if he wins and he goes, you know, back to back like this, you know, I'll have to tip the cap to him. Yeah. He certainly can run at Gulf Stream. He certainly can run big when he fires. I just wouldn't count on him firing in this race. So I think we just put him into the winter circle probably. No doubt. All right. So anything else on that race? No, no. I think we covered it. All right. So you're kind of a banishing guy if you get anything near that morning line, you'll be betting on him. Which is this be one where you do your saver exact under the Brad Cox horses or. Absolutely. Yeah. They look very strong here. A tap and street a little bit more than disco time. But yeah, I mean, if it in a situation, a bigger ticket situation. And I'm ending with the Pegasus World Cup, I would be using banishing and tap and street only. So what about like you like program trading? Could you see a double program trading to banishing? Yeah. Absolutely. That might be a really nice overlaid price there. If we can get, you know, like you said, 10 to 1 or better on banishing, but it's hard. I mean, I mean, it could go a lot of different ways. I mean, even, even a horse like full Serrano could take some action. Yeah, I forgot about him. Reader's cup. Reader's cup winner. Yeah. And he has some races that fit here. I just don't believe he's going to get the right trip for. Oh, yeah. Yeah. For me, the pace set up is like, I don't see him. It's all for him. Yeah. Dueling with like, you know, the meeker or Micah every pronounce that horse who's, you know, and all these other horses that got to go. I don't see the trip where he, he wins, right? He's going to pressure it all the way around. Yeah. And, you know, drawing like that too, he's going to be in between some speed. It's just not ideal unless he, unless he's decides to change tactics. If they change tactics, which Rosario is known for, I mean, he's not the speed rider. He was when he was in Southern California. He tends to bring horses back. He might have a shot, but I, I still wouldn't. Yeah. It just doesn't feel right. It seems like they rushed him into the dirt mile this year and he, he didn't run a step that day. He wasn't coming close to Nisos or Citizen Bull. I mean, he can definitely reverse form a mile and a nath probably isn't his best distance either, so it's tough. All right. So what, you know, what's the, the bet you're really looking forward to making on the day on Saturday? Honestly, it's, it's, it's probably the win bet on Dostino to Oral. Well, that's right. You, that one, so you had some pretty good prices that we've talked about and that's one of them. For sure. That horse is 12 to one. The storyline. I think you could get double digit odds on that horse. And yeah, I think I think we're going to, um, that is probably one of the, the main bets there is definitely a win ticket on that one. And then, you know, obviously on a foray into some exotics with that horse, you know, the key, but, um, as well, you'll probably have a good day. It sounds. Yes. Absolutely. If he wins, it's sizzler time. We're, we're, we're, we're going down the South Beach. I might not come home for three day, the whole nine. All right. Well, you know, you can, you can dial me up from the, from the, the ocean front there, uh, at some ocean from bar on Saturday night after you hit that one. Absolutely. If that one wins. Yeah. I, I would say probably, I, Claire a beret in one stripe, those two, um, and heredia, uh, three probably, I, I, I might even play a pick three with those three in there. Um, if I had to, and I'm not sure it would be, which one I like the most, but probably one stripe, I, I really like that horse. So I would say one stripe would be the one I'm most excited about playing. I think he, no one's heard of him, but I think after Saturday, they will, um, cause he, I think he will, if he can run back to his last race, maybe even improve off that, um, certainly just the mold of a horse that could blow up the board. Yeah. Maybe the first North American win for his writer, uh, Gavin Lorraine, uh, so go, Gavin, go. There we go. Gavin. All right. So, um, I, one of the things I try to do is, uh, have a few questions. I've got a, just a few more minutes, got a couple questions that came from listeners that we will cover, um, let me find them here. Uh, I've lost my questions, hold on a second. There we go. All right. Um, there are only a couple. Here's one from Kenberley shirt lift, um, how has the turf course been playing at GP? Uh, well, I mean, from what I see, um, it's kind of like the normal turf course. Uh, there really isn't too much of a preference as to, you know, closes or speed horses. It plays pretty fair. Um, one thing you do have to kind of take note of is where the rail is because it does make a difference at Gulf Stream when the rail is out speed does excellent. Um, I know last year I had noticed that with the rail out slightly, horses weren't closing and ended up calling it audible and playing, uh, be your best really, really hard. And it, and it worked out, um, because they, there was really, it was a no passing zone in that race. I think that the top three finishers ran one, two, three around the whole track. Um, well, yeah, on these big days, and I'm pretty sure to look in that, I don't see any rail settings. So I think it's the rails are, you know, usually it's zero, but they ran, they ran that race on the quote, unquote, outer, they had it divided. Oh, well, then we have to be careful and take a look at that then, um, they do that sometimes it, the, you know, I don't know if they're going to try to do that on Saturday. Oh, no, they are. They are, actually, hold on a sec. Oh, they are going to split it, making a good point. So I'm going to look here, hold on. So the Pegasus turf is going to be at zero. Um, the, um, the Philly and Mara Pegasus is at zero and the big night, there's all the races we talked about are at zero, but for people playing other races, the turf sprint will be at the rail, be way out at 66 feet. So it's like you said, like on second course, almost, um, for that seventh race, the five four longs. And I think that's the only one. And so it looks like they're going to run all the routes. Oh, wait. And the early races, the allowance races, yeah, are probably going to be out wide. So those two and the, the, the allowance races and the sprint are on that second course, but all the turf routes will be, you know, basically with the rail at zero. So that's good, good, good point to make and that was worth checking. So, but in this case, I think it probably will be, you know, given you have fresh ground and it's always good to save ground, typically a turf racing, you know, the inside is probably preferable to the outside, but you know, there's always risks to those inside trips as well. Oh, yeah. You get, you get bottled up, can't get out. I mean, I've, I've lost many a race where my horse just can't get out of a box. Yeah. But yeah. Some riders are a lot. Yeah. And some riders are much smarter about who to get behind and when to, to ease out. Um, that's what makes them good turf riders. Um, you know, guys like, uh, I read and, you know, Pratt, those, those guys typically don't get boxed in very often. Yeah. I mean, I read, it's funny you bring that up because I read, you'll see, he almost never gets the rail trip on the turf. Um, he tends to keep his horses wide and clear so they can make that run. And he's very good at timing that run. He's not as good on the lead, uh, he tends to make any mistakes that he does make. It's usually when he's on the lead. I mean, uh, the cogburn ride in the breeder's cup kind of accentuates that. All right. That, that was actually a good race for me that. Oh, yeah. I love that race because I was, I was going against copper. All right. One other question. This is from Kevin Macinty, uh, what are your thoughts on a turf or is going from route to sprint as opposed to sprint to route is the cut back to sprint typically more of a positive angle. Um, what do you, what are your thoughts on that? Let's, you know, probably have to talk about in terms of dirt or turf. You can pick whichever one. Well, it depends on how big of a cut back. Um, I tend to believe that the longer races like if you're going a mile and a half, mile and three, eight, and you cut back to a mile, you're going to struggle because I, I think the paces of those races are wildly different. And it's hard for a horse going long like that to cut back to a, a faster race, especially the way that turf racing is running America where, you know, it's, it's not really like it is on dirt where they, the speed is at the premium. It's late speed. That's the, the, the most effective, um, but cutting back from, let's say, uh, a mile and nade to a mile and a 16th, that is more of a, a more favorable kind of cut back. And I do like those kind of horses, especially when you know they, they're really not intended to go a mile and a, and they cut back to a more realistic mile and a 16th distance or a mile. Yeah. That makes sense. I mean, to me, it's really is so situational, but like even the example you gave, say a horse has been going, you know, on, or on, say on a turf race. It's been going a mile and a quarter or a mile and three, eights. And now it's cutting back to a mile and eight or a mile and 16th. If it's, you know, most of the time, I wouldn't be real keen on that. But if a horse tends to be rank all the time on those longer races and the rider is always fighting it, sometimes that cut back where they're naturally going faster, the rider won't feel obligated to strangle the horse back and, you know, give it a, let it settle without burning energy, fighting the rider, sometimes those horses can really improve. So if they've been kind of really rank and burning energy, fighting the rider and they cut back where they get, and same even in dirt races where they go from a sprint to a route, you know, if they've been route horses that, you know, just tend to be really rank. I kind of like it when they get into a faster race and they don't, you know, they'll have a target, they don't have to like, you know, strangle them back. So it's funny that you say this and bring this up because my, my old podcast partner, Chuck Simon, he was very good at pinpointing horses on the dirt that showed speed and faded in sprints to stretch them out on the grass. He was really adept at that and I learned, he kind of spoke about it a lot and I learned what he used to look at and it is really just pure speed and then pedigree and the horses would stretch out and he got a lot of winters that way and it's something I kind of look for. I mean, I know it's not a pure kind of cut back stretch out sort of situation. Well, it is, but it's both right with Anne, yeah, exactly. So there's a little bit of an extra element in the surface. But I kind of tend to agree, depending on the pedigree with the horses, let's say they go five problems on the turf and stretch out to a mile. Pedigree really is one of the deciding factors and then how quick they are because some horses are just too quick for their own good and they'll never be able to get most distances because of the fact that they just can't settle. But you know, depending on the trainer who it is, what they're doing in today's race, you know, it's not worth, you know, you should take an extra look at those kind of horses because they don't get bet often or a lot typically unless they're all doing that sort of thing and you could find prices, you know, on the cut back or stretching out depending on the situation. Yeah, and you know, a lot of it's how much of a cut back. So like on the turf, a lot of times like a goal stream where they only have a five fur on sprint, I'm usually not big on horses cutting back on the turf because it's such an extreme cut back. Five fur on the turf is such a speed oriented race, it's so different than a route race on the turf. I probably wouldn't be interested in that, but like, you know, when they get back to Belmont Park or even aqueduct where they can cut back to six or six and a half or seven, then I'm a lot more interested. Same on the dirt, you know, a cut back to a one turn mile or seven fur onks for a dirt race, you know, I like those horses, typically I'm biased towards them, but cutting back all the way to six fur longs. I'm not as keen, you know, because there's races, the dynamics are so much quicker. Like you said, you know, they have a hard time keeping up. They're kind of, they're going to find themselves much farther back than they're used to. Now, I may turn out that's just what the horse always wanted to do, but typically they're like, oh, they just learned that he can't go six fur longs, kind of thing. So, you know, it also depends on the price, right? He's always, always, always. All right. Well, that pretty much does anything else you want to add before we wrap things up. Oh, thank you so much for having me on. This is great. I mean, this is stuff that, this is why I like this part. I mean, this isn't the first time that I've listened or obviously is the first time I've been on it, but I really enjoy it because this is the type of stuff that I would be doing or talking about, you know, at 1130 when I, when I arrive at the track with somebody and we kind of discuss the race is sort of in this fashion, so this is really great. Yeah, that's exactly what Scott Carson, my former co-host, we were trying to say, you know, let's try to just imagine we're at the track a couple hours before the race talking about, you know, the race is coming up. So the fact you said that makes it feel good because that's exactly what we're shooting for. All right, so thanks again, Barry for joining us and I'm sure all the listeners really appreciated you coming on to the show and of course we appreciate the listeners and appreciate your questions. You know, keep the questions coming. I think that's a good part of the show. It's always fun to talk about some of these good questions that we've gotten and that'll wrap things up. That's the end of show number 346 of the Sporting Kings podcast. Good luck this weekend and please enjoy the Brooklyn, Bugaloo, Blowout, cheers. [Music]