GOP Blocks First Vote on Pete Hegseth’s Impeachment

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Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts. What story do the 2026 midterms tell? Whether he admits it or not, his party is seeing it as this, his policies, his behavior made him an enormous loser. I'm Pete Marara. And this week, longtime political journalist and author John Dickerson joined me to discuss the Trump-Maga midterms defeat, and where both parties go from here. Search and follow stay tuned with Preet, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, I'm Scott Dalloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlev. Before we get started, make sure to subscribe to stay up to date and support the show. All right, let's bust into it. Let's start with the latest in the Congress. Yesterday, Washington DC was giving first day of school vibes as Congress joined for its lame duck spirit with fewer than 25 days until Democrats say control the house. And the next Congress will have at least one fewer familiar face. Lauren Bobert, we will miss her, who has officially lost her seat. There you go. By the way, Redis District in Colorado, flipped blue, but these final weeks could get messy. Yesterday, outgoing representative Thomas Massey introduced eight articles of impeachment for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which could see a vote on the floor later this week. Hegseth insists he's not worried, but the White House is reportedly checking where the Republicans have the votes to impeach him. He may also be losing his potential soft landing Tennessee Governor-elect, Marsha Blackburn, reportedly has no plans to appoint him to her Senate seat. There's also political calculation for Trump. Hegseth can still choose Hegseth's successor while they control the House. Come January, Democrats take over. Hegseth held a press conference early this morning, would take a listen. History will judge the Iran war quite differently than conventional wisdom right now. We didn't start this war. Iran did 47 years ago, but President Trump is willing to do what no other president would. The proper remedy for a policy disagreement, it's legislation. It's debate. It's the next presidential election. It's not handing the House and Senate floor to the Democrats so that they can run a show trial against the President and the Secretary of War while Republicans still control Congress. You see, we've seen this show before. They impeached President Trump over a perfect phone call. They impeached him again in his final week in office, both times they failed. Just for the articles themselves, Iran, the cartels, Maduro, Yemen, everyone was a lawful operation ordered by the Commander-in-Chief, then ordered by myself, notified to Congress and executed by American warriors who did their jobs. We destroyed terror regime's capabilities. We sank the boats carrying poison into our communities. We put a narco dictator in handcuffs. These are not high crimes. This is the job, and it's the job well done. If you read the articles of impeachment, it's not that long. In nowhere in there, was it mentioned that this was about being just too damn good at your job? There was talk of, you know, having an illegal war, also talking about Yemen, school kids that were killed, and other various goodies that do not have to do with being such a badass. What I'm curious to get your thoughts on this is a bit of a counterintuitive way to think about this, but Pete, to my mind, actually became a little bit less vulnerable because now Trump is out there talking about how he has his full confidence. So, you have Ted Cruz on his podcast where he goes into this room and he becomes honest and he says all the things that normal people are thinking, which is like the house had to be adjourned, because they had the votes to impeach, hexath, and certainly when you look at the new crop of senators coming in, or even some of the outgoing Republicans that have found their yolo in the final moments, maybe that they would want that to be their final vote, that they cast, especially those that made a big stink about him and then voted to confirm. You know who I'm talking about. But now Trump is defiant about it and has even said that he would keep hexaths if he gets impeached. So, do you think he's not in as much of a dangerous position this morning than he was two days ago? I don't know, and you may know the mechanics better than me, but my sense is all of the Democrats who are all of the voters who are responsible for forming not even the tsunami, but this blue super tsunami are looking for a blood offering. And this seems like the most obvious one, both in terms of what is incredibly unpopular not across just Democrats, but also Republicans, and also has some Republican members of the Chamber fired up. So this feels like the blood offering that every Democrat wants, the voters want, and even some Republicans want. I just don't see how he survives this, but maybe there's some mechanics here that I'm missing. What are your thoughts? I think it's just, it would be a Trump thing more than a mechanics thing. I don't think the people have changed their mind, though it was interesting to hear Don Bacon, who is on his way out, has been hypercritical of Pete Hegg's sex, say that he wouldn't vote to impeach him, but the numbers are going to be there with or without John Bacon. I just thought that was a surprise, I guess, since he has been so critical, but he has objections to Thomas Massey and saying that this is a guy who is anti-Ukraine anti-Israel, and I don't necessarily want to be a part of this. I think that it's very smart strategically to return to how I led with this, to put everything that he's done into one bucket, because, you know, you've say Maduro, for instance, then the president is thrilled with how all of that went, especially because they're ignoring the fishermen that we killed in boats in the Caribbean. And God knows what else has gone on, saying that they followed all of the protocols. There has been a number of folks who would more traditionally be conservative about this, who have spoken out about the fact that they circumvented the War Powers Act. That's a question for Hakim Jeffries. How quickly that will come up as an agenda item once he's speaker of the House to make sure that they're actually votes on these things, but he did say this is a show trial of me and the president, and that's how I think he links it together, and that's how he gets president Trump to be supportive when you think about the autopsies that have already been written of the election, including the one from JD Vance, even why the president said Sunday on 60 minutes about the Iran War being a factor in the election, though he said he would do it again, because you need to make sure that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon. But tying them, tying them together, I think, is very smart strategy for Pete, and saying that this war was started 47 years ago. The average American doesn't care. They just saw an inflation report come in hotter than expected. Again, though gas on the national average just went below $4. I think for the first time since July 19th, but I see what he's doing. And I think that if you are in that vulnerable of a position, it is the smartest thing that you can do. I guess this is my final determination. So if there's two parties here, Trump, obviously, he serves at the pleasure of the president. If the president says you need to resign, then he resigns. I think your point is it doesn't sound like that's going to happen, but does the administration really want to endure on kind of live 24 by 7 live coverage of this vote, which sounds like it's going to happen sooner rather than later, and his Trumps, what feels like based on this, obviously, coordinated release or clip or talking point from Pete. Does he have the influence to pull back the vote? So said he isn't impeached. In other words, okay, even if the president is not going to put pressure on him to resign, are they on the eve of this vote going to decide that they want this broadcast live when they count the votes and find that they're going to lose, and he's going to be removed? I mean, do they want it? No, they would rather program an octagon with Dana White, and we're going to talk about Dana White in the press briefing room, and it's turning down of that job, which was totally a legitimate offer and not a mistake on the president's front. I don't think they feel like they can stop it. Yeah. So this is moving forward. This is going to be great. It's going to be a drama. Yeah. It is. And I thought the president called in to see span of all places last night. It looks like we've got a call from the White House, Mr. President, welcome to Washington Journal Primetime. Thank you, Mimi. Good luck with the show. I've watched you numerous times and you do a great job. Thank you. We appreciate you calling in. There was a woman laughing giggling in the background. I don't know if it was Natalie Hart. It was not a Melania laugh to say the least. But, you know, he said that he enjoys watching C-SPAN and that's how he takes the temperature on the country. But every network is going to cover that if there actually is an impeachment vote over Pete Hanks' ass. And I would imagine they were going to have way more than enough votes to make it happen. And this feels to me like them moving inwards. You know, you see that this huge election right where you should be contending with the fact that now Texas is blue. You do Los Kansas, South Carolina, and these aren't small elections, right? You're going to have a Senator Annie Andrews from South Carolina for six years, right? You're going to have this in Kansas, Texas, decades to undo if they think that they even can. So you would think that they would be looking at the big picture stuff and expanding their minds, but they're just getting smaller and smaller. Stephen Miller is a small-minded move, defending Pete Hanks' ass like this is a small-minded move, and it shows that nobody is listening to the voters about what happened on Tuesday. What did you make of the day and a wide Trump? I don't know where you would call it, stunt yesterday. It was during the five. So we took it live and then talked about it. You know, they're making it out to be that this was an intentional joke, and I thought that day and a way it seemed somewhere between uncomfortable and passably fine in playing along with this. But I think it all just speaks to how deeply unserious this White House has been and continues to be and that it's just going to get worse in a lame doc era. We weren't crazy for considering the fact that he might legitimately think that Dana White should be the new press secretary. And I think they're going to throw things at us that will boggle the mind to say the least. And I think it's all a joke. This is like a practical joke with nuclear codes, which is the scariest joke of all. And that's what I felt about seeing Dana White on our screens when everyone was desperate to see my face. There you go. Not most of the viewers. Did you catch any of it? I saw some of it. I actually think Dana White wouldn't be. I mean, I've said jokingly that I thought he would be one of the brighter people in the White House. I mean, he's a talented guy. He's run a great organization. I thought that was, I thought they actually handled that. I mean, fairly well. And it was sort of a, what I would call a well placed distraction because it was sort of outrageous enough to interrupt a news cycle, which has been pretty negative. But it doesn't appear like it's, I don't know, it was real and people like Dana and I don't I could host to them. If they're looking for distractions, I think that was a good one. But going back to the news cycle, they're probably trying to avoid. We haven't yet discussed to go on calls to impeach RFK junior, which picked up steam yesterday after Dr. Annie Andrews and Senator Bernie Sanders, both boy support for the idea. Calci has the odds at 36% that is impeached before the new year. Do you think this is a serious possibility, the impeachment of RFK junior? New to the conversation, but that doesn't mean that it is inserious and low and behold, when a bunch of doctors and nurses and healthcare professionals, when they're racist, there's going to be a discussion about the fact that we have a total crank for an HHS secretary that has made us all sicker and spews absolute nonsense on one of if not the most important thing in our lives, which is our health. And so I hope that it's serious, or at least some discussion of it, I'd be curious as to what exactly the articles of impeachment would look like. I think, you know, obviously Thomas Massey releasing, whatever one's going to be voting on vis-à-vis Pete hexeth is important and you'd have to see that as well from Senator elect Andrews and Senator Sanders. But why not at this point when you think we've spent two years calling these people completely unqualified for the job, maybe it's time to do something about it. Do you think that Stephen Miller's kind of full-throated or bear hug of RFK junior makes it less likely? Do you think that, I mean, are they going to go from hexeth and then the next week? At what point do Democrats decide, okay, the accountability, when does the accountability to turn into the revenge to or is this what the public wants? I mean, no one likes Pete hexeth. No one is more grateful for Pete secretary hexeth right now than secretary Kennedy. He's got to think, okay, someone was going to take a lot of incoming here and I'm glad I'm not, you know, on point here. Do you think as soon as the result one way or another with hexeth that they just immediately turn their sights on RFK and does RFK benefit again from Stephen Miller? It appears that part of their strategy is or at least Stephen Miller strategy is to kind of embrace the Maha movement and more tightly associate the administration with the Maha movement and RFK junior. Do you think they're already doing kind of trying to lay groundwork for killing the momentum around this? Well, they would be smart to embrace the Maha movement and it's in original construction. The problem is that it got completely corrupted and I think only five of 20 Maha movement candidates were able to pull off their elections. It's been essentially decimated because people said like I signed up for getting the red and yellow dies out of my food. I didn't sign up for measles and that's what we got. So, you know, I don't think a bear hug from Stephen Miller is ever going to feel as good as a bear hug from Donald Trump. Everyone is expendable those Stephen Miller has obviously been there for the long haul and ultimately, you know, one of if not the most trusted person in president Trump's orbit. And I went and listened to oversight soon to be oversight terror Robert Garcia talking about what accountability looks like and the title of his talk was lawyer up, which is what he tweeted out in the middle of the results coming in on Tuesday night. And, you know, that immediately hits people and they think is this just going to be a revenge tour, like you said, right, if you're kind of meaming and throwing haymakers like that, you know, saying essentially we're just going to throw you in jail, which is what people would take from it and the base loved it, right, that's what they want to hear they feel like crimes have been committed that there has been. To say it in the nicest terms, a lack of faithfulness to the Constitution at the least, but you got to be really careful about this because I do think it is one of their most potent attack lines against Democrats using this law fair argument. And how came Jeffries has to be very careful and how he treads these lines because he's gotten an agenda to get through and his agenda is driven by affordability concerns it's not driven by whatever is going to happen to Pete access an RFK junior and Elon Musk and the Trump kids, etc, even though it is a piece of it government corruption a huge issue to people and this desire for accountability not for made up crimes. But for what they've actually done to the government and what abuses may have been committed so I think you're right to point out how delicate a line has to be towed in all of this. And to be clear, there's zeroing in I mean, you could argue obviously the president has to take responsibility for geopolitical decisions to bomb a nation to go to war. And people would say secretary headsets is a dangerous person just I would argue because of his incompetence, arguably domestically and I think people can make this argument that the most damaging over the medium and the long term is in fact secretary Kennedy, I mean we're seeing measles outbreaks the likes of which we haven't seen before and a lot of this has a lag right when you don't have. When you're when you're seen as being anti vaccine or creating a both side isn't around them a lot of the damage there might come to fruition or surface well after he's out of office. But again the line is the following in a cautionary tell is lieutenant I think Alexander Vindman who was the raised the most money was a candidate for Senate in Florida was leading for the entire race for the democratic nomination and then lost the nomination and people basically described his campaign. Is a failed attempt to have an impeachment nostalgia tour that's just not what democrats at least in Florida appear to be animated about so as you pointed out the line between what people perceive as accountability and also to be blunt the people who are most angry are going to be the most animated and vocal online. But I would argue that the groups that swung hardest to blue while they want accountability and corruption actually corruption was a big issue for them I do think that they're more focused or I don't think the democrats going to be able to keep these swing voters if they just go on what's called you know for lack of a better term an accountability slash revenge tour. And the question is at what point does it begin to occupy when does it become the main issue or what democrats when people say well what's changed now that the democrats are in office I would hope that the first thing isn't you know these cease man hearings you going for resignations that people say that is happening it's accountability these people deserve additional scrutiny. But sooner rather than later, I hope we see you know they built for universal health care, raising minimum wage, housing credits, whatever it is, I think a decent litmus test for how they're doing is going to be that there's an ounce of "accountability" or whatever you want to call it, but a pound of actual policies. Support for the show comes from hymns. If there's a weight loss goal, you keep chasing, and never quite reaching, you're not the only one. Weight loss by hymns can help you finally close the gap, with access to a range of FDA-approved EOP1 medications, including the wagovi pill and the wagovi pad. 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That's why Dacogon helps power millions of conversations every day for brands you know and love. Having Avis, Delta, Snapchat, and ORA. Ready to transform your customer support? Go to Dacogon.ai/moderates to see what Dacogon can do for your team. Check Dacogon out at Dacogon.ai/moderates. That's Dacogon.ai/moderates. Are you tired of hearing about business, tech, and finance from the bros? We are the Tiger Sisters, a top business podcast with the Vox Media Podcast Network. Tiger Sisters releases every Monday, and we decode money, power, and love. And who doesn't love all those things? We are the Internet's Wall Street and Silicon Valley big sisters. Tune in every Monday for Late Night Sister Talk, Meets Boardroom Strategy. Check out Tiger Sisters on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Tiger fam. Speaking of party leaders, Nancy Pelosi, former speaker Pelosi, have this to say about Haley Stevens. Let's watch. We have about three more weeks or two more weeks of being in the Congress. So I don't think we should start making judgments about anybody in the caucus at this point. In other words, compared to what? Compared to what? I was disappointed in that. I conveyed that to her. I want to be helpful to her in terms of how she deals with this, but I'm not disappointed in kicking her out of the clock. You spoke into her since then? Yes, I have. I mean, does she have any concern about coming back to the Democratic Caucus? We heard reports she was with the Republicans. We'll just have to ask her that about what her plans are. You're saying Jones and go ahead. No, I just like leave her alone now, yeah, like she folks up and if the reports are true that she's hanging out in the Republican cloakroom, like letter B, right? You know, she should have never endorsed Abdul in the first place. Clearly, her heart was not in it. That is completely fine to set. So just be like, I want Democrats to flip the Senate. This particular candidate is not my cup of tea for these reasons. Maybe we can continue working towards an alliance and making sure that I feel good about this and whatever reticent Jewish voters feel good about Abdul. She completely afted up in the process of all of this culminating in leaving Jim Clyburn sitting in a church waiting for you with your staff, not even knowing that you're across town with mic Rogers. Like unbelievably uncool, but this woman has what 30 days left of this job is probably in complete free fall in thinking about what her life looks like now. She probably isn't going to be able to run for office again as a Democrat with this kind of stain on her record vis-a-vis the party. Like, I'm sure Nancy probably would feel differently if she was the one that was still in charge of the caucus. This feels a little bit like nice grandma vibes on a comparative basis, and she would have been harsher maybe if she were the one that was about to get the gavel again. But I'm leave her alone as my feeling. It feels like this would be a gift to Republicans because I mean, first off, there are several Republican elected officials or government officials who endorse Tallarika. What would we respond if the Republican caucus kicked them out or the local Texas Republican party kicked them out of the party? I think the appropriate response here for the speaker, anyone else in power is, I don't agree with their decision, she has free will. There have been several candidates who have endorsed people across party lines. The majority of them have been Republicans endorsing the Democratic candidate, and while I don't agree, you know, we wish her the best. Next, that's it. We keep accusing the magma movement of being a cult. And part of the cult is that when someone leaves, you treat them like an apostate. You treat them as if they've done something morally wrong by not signing up for every aspect of the cult. So this is, I think this is an obvious situation in that they should just, like you said, let her get back to her life. I can't imagine she needs Democrats piling on. In Mississippi, Scott column has been looking for big name Democrat to energize the base of Southern Democrats. He advocated for Kamala Harris to campaign in the state against the advice of his advisors. Now, narrowly in the lead, column is crediting Kamala Harris's appearance in Mississippi for bringing attention to the state's crumbling hospitals. Do you think this says anything about Vice President Harris's chances for 2028 presidential run? Was this seen as successful? Because there was some debate, just as there was debate around whether Trump getting closer candidate was a positive or a negative. I felt the same vibes with Vice President Harris around whether Democrats should campaign, how closely they should campaign with her. Does this make her a more attractive or compelling person for issues and perhaps bring her back into the light for 2028? I think she's definitely out of the shadow considering what's gone on. And if there is going to be a reprioritization of the Sun Belt over the Rust Belt, that's to Kamala Harris's benefit. And I was really happy reading this article that Scott Colom went against his advisors and said, no, I know the people of Mississippi better. I know how popular she is, especially with black women who ran the table in these races. It was a 92 to 8, I mean, it was very, and by the way, I want to apologize to Mr., it's I've been calling Colom, I've been calling Colom. I had to do one of those pronunciation things. If Marypee can get past the so-called A. Yeah, but does it make her my 2028 pick? No. But I think that it gives her some of the flowers that she deserves for important connections that she's made in certain communities and her ability to be a good surrogate for folks. And everyone spends their time now kind of shitting on her. And I like that he has stood up for her. And clearly it worked when you look at this, we're about to have a democratic sender from the state of Mississippi. So I think it's a good thing. It's a good thing. Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro is making a case at a state, not Texas, is still the ultimate swing state. There you go. After helping Democrats flip four congressional seats when control of the state legislature for the first time in 30 years and securing his own re-election by more than 20 points, Shapiro says Pennsylvania should remain the blue parent for the party heading into 2028. He also brushed off the idea that Texas could replace Pennsylvania as the nation's biggest battleground insisting, I'm Pennsylvania first, now they're arguing over who's the battleground state. Just, we haven't checked in on him in a while, Governor Shapiro sort of, he has lost some of the, I'm not going to say mojo, and by the way at this point, I'm not sure you want Mojo, it probably isn't a bad idea to be able to do it. a little bit in the shadows at this point, but we haven't heard from him in a while, or I would say, he hasn't got a lot of coverage. What's the theory of the case? First Shapiro heading into 2028. How would you hand a cap it in? Obviously, it is very, very early. But what do you think, where would you put Shapiro right now in the increasingly crowded race on the Democratic side? - I would put him still in the top tier. I was with him this weekend at CrikeyCon. He was out there with Bob Brooks, one of the Democrats who was able to flip a Republican seat, and we were talking about the candidate quality in Pennsylvania, and that he hand recruited four of the folks that flipped seats. He won by these God tier numbers. I mean, it was so insane. No one even thought that there was a chance that any Republican would be able to challenge him. I think that he's also been vindicated on the Federman front, you know how they've been in a fight for years and not spoken. Now when you look at where the caucus is, obviously going into this, where we're gonna have like 56 senators in the end, like that makes John Federman not important at all to the caucus. There was a scenario in which we would have to be concerned about where his vote was going. And we've talked about this on raging moderates before. Like what would the Federman do? Do you think there's any possibility? Now it doesn't matter. He can do whatever he wants. I would tell him like him to vote with Democrats where it is appropriate. And he made that point. He still votes with them what 92, 93% at the time. But we are in Federman proof majority territory. And I think that Shapiro has a very strong case to make and people are going bananas for him at this conference. Super excited. Westmore was also there. People chasing him all around. It's good to see folks out and about telling their stories about what they've accomplished. I mean, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker, and Westmore all won re-election on Tuesday night. And all have interesting cases to make huge night as well for Andy Beshear and what he pulled off with the Democratic Governors Association. Like I said yesterday, 75% of Americans are gonna be governed by a Democrat, come January. Which. - That just absolutely blows my mind. - 3 and 4 of our citizens will be governed by a Democrat. So probably the most outrageous tax loophole. I would argue is what's called a 2 and 20 rule and alternative investments. And that is, or that's fees carried interest loophole, excuse me. And it's the following. If you're a Subaru salesman making 100 grand a year and you have commissions on every Subaru that you sell, you get taxed, ordinary income. And if you're making over, I think it's 180,000, you get taxed at 37 and a half percent. But if you're a money manager and you're managing people's money and you increase the value of the stocks you picked for them from $100 to $200, on that $100 I would call commission, you qualify for capital gains or lower interest rate. And it's called the carried interest loophole. And it applies to an industry that's arguably the most, I won't say overcompensated, but the most well compensated industry in history. I think we're going to look back on this era. For the last 20, 30 years, there has never been a group of people, a smaller group of people who have made more money than the alternative investments community. And in addition to making a ton of money, they get to keep more of it and not play ordinary income taxes on what is effectively a commission. You're supposed to get capital gains tax deduction or lower rates when you put your own capital at risk. This is not putting your own capital at risk. This is putting other people's capital at risk. And that was part of the infrastructure bill. That is they were going to do away. They were going to close this loophole. It had to be stuck back in or ripped out of the infrastructure bill because Senator Kristen Sinema, who took $700,000 from the private equity industry, she became a holdout. And she had that kind of power as did, and remember the Senator from West Virginia. - Manchin. - Manchin. When it's this close and you, the temptation to have this kind of power and cameras on you and fundraising ability where you can say, "You know, I'm not sure I feel I have some concerns about this bill." And basically the president down have to show up and give you whatever the hell you want, including putting back in what is a ridiculous, a ridiculous loophole after receiving this kind of money. I mean, I wish I hope someone someday loves me the same way that Kristen Sinema loves the private equity industry. But what you reference is really important because when it's this close, the temptation to become the swing vote and then go under the attention and leverage is too great for someone not to pop up and say, "You know, I'm worried about X-Y and Z, and we don't have that." - Can I say a question about Texas versus Pennsylvania? So obviously in electoral votes, Texas has 40 electoral votes. It's like the mother load. - Do you think that I know it's fun to talk about the blue nominee and black sis and, you know, all of the memes around what's happened in Texas and Democrats did insanely well, you know, from the bottom of the ballot to the top of the ballot and I love seeing Gina and Yohosa going for it, right? Like as many things as she can change, you know, from protecting women's healthcare, getting religion out of our schools, she's doing all of the things that people would want her to be able to do. Do you really think that in a presidential, Texas would vote blue? Something about that feels different to me and maybe it's still the cautious Democrat that lives inside of me and continues to turn my stomach and still say nauseously optimistic when we had, you know, the best nights since 1974 is maybe, you know, piping up too much. But I feel like a total change in strategy where you think, oh, Texas over Pennsylvania, like the Sun Belt versus the Rust Belt I get because the Rust Belt hasn't been particularly reliable for Democrats and then you look at the incredible candidates coming out of the Sun Belt, I get that refocusing but this idea that we have, you know, this election and then Texas is on the map for us on a presidential level feels too shaky to my nervous system. - I mean, we can dream and there's somewhat of an art, you can make the argument that the Hispanic community or the fact that quite frankly, there's the dream of this migration that has taken place from blue to red states. Migration can largely be described as people leaving high tax cold states and moving to low tax sunny states such as Florida and Texas. The dream was that so many Democrats moved into these states that it would start to change the complexion. I think if you actually look at the numbers, it's a fantasy. I mean, I just don't, like I said, I think we are renting these voters and the notion that if they put up a decent Republican candidate in 28 that this state is in play, I mean, we can dream but I think again, I just don't see this red ripped out. I don't, you know, Trump was on the ballot when someone else is not on the ballot. I got to think Texas remains reliably red. I mean, we can dream, but no, I don't, I don't realistically see Texas being in play. I think the governor, Governor Shapiro was absolutely correct. That our job is to hold onto those swing states and we can dream about Texas and keep tabs on it. But again, I feel like this is, I think we're way over our skis at this point thinking Texas is in play for 2028 in terms of the presidential race, what are your thoughts? - I agree and my Jewish nervous system has been vindicated. - There you go. All right, let's move on. Before we get to audience questions, I wanna check in on the state of the MAGA influencer ecosystem because the infighting is getting pretty spectacular. Laura Lumer is taking a podcast hiatus after being accused of taking undisclosed payments for political posts and she's now feuding with other Trump world influencers over who deserves blame for the midterm losses. Meanwhile, Katie Miller is pulling the plug on her podcast as her husband, Steven Miller, takes over his White House Chief of Staff. The McCron's are escalating their legal battle against Candace Owens over her conspiracy theories while Megan Kelly and Elon Musk are rallying to defend Russell Brand following his rape conviction. There seems like there's trouble in MAGA world. What do you think is going on here? - I mean, I don't know, rushing to defend someone that's getting 10 and 1/2 years in prison for rape. I've won particularly understood. I don't know and I can't even imagine that their followers or viewers are so incensed about this. I get that Russell Brand became a player in the influencer space, but I don't know. It just feels like a week after so many people told you to essentially go after yourself that that is not the direction that you need to be running. Katie Miller needs to spend more time with her kids. Obviously, Steven Miller has a bigger job and she says that the podcast is a lot of work. I get it, we do a podcast, it is a lot of work. I think they are trying to get out of the way a bit and Laura Loomer is afraid. And this actually came up on my panel on Saturday about influencers taking money for political posts. I was curious what you think about it because I was on with Carlos Espina. who we've had on raging moderates, one of the biggest influencers in the ecosystem, especially in the Spanish language space. And he was talking about the balance between, it has to be something that you believe in, but also people need to make money. So people are doing this as a full-time job. And if there's no money associated with it, how are you supposed to pay rent and eat, which was the number one issue for all of these voters? So what do you think about it, putting aside what Laura Lumer's doing? I'm talking about with full disclosure of folks being paid. - So what's sort of not a great reflection on America right now is that in China, the number one aspirational job is to be an astronaut or I believe an engineer, and the number one aspirational job that kids mention or teens mention in the US that they'd like to do professionally is to be an influencer. And there's nothing wrong with being an influencer. And a lot of influencers build really large communities on one or more platforms and then talk about fashion or beauty or the products they use. And these platforms have rules. And as does I believe the FCC, that you need to disclose that you are being paid. And people don't mind a podcast that runs out 'cause it's pretty obvious that this is a paid advertisement or you disclose that they're a data partner or whatever it might be. There's nothing wrong with that. The problem is. - The Republicans lost the midterms. The Iran War probably helped, but artificial intelligence was also a big old stinker on the battle last week. Data centers and the policies surrounding them were on referendums over 40 times, across 10 states and all about one of those initiatives were voted down. Democrats like Gina Aina Hosa in Texas, who opposed data center proponents like Governor Greg Abbott, one big tech stocks took a tumble. Then the world found out that Jensen Huang from NVIDIA likely got honeypotted by a Chinese spy. NVIDIA stocks took another tumble. Huang might be heading towards one of the most expensive divorces in history. What I'm trying to say is that it's been a bad week for AI. And all the fresh Democrats who've been promising to hold big tech accountable haven't even been sworn in yet. - Enough is enough. We need to make sure that the pace of development isn't outpacing the pace of risk. - On today's explain from Vox, we're gonna hear from the guy those Democrats call for Council on AI Policy, and we're gonna hear from Open AI, weekday afternoons in your feeds. (upbeat music) - What's up, everybody? The Steelers' Captain, Cam Hayward here. One of the most respected coaches in NFL history, Super Bowl champion, and the man who led the Pittsburgh Steelers to 19 seasons, and my former head coach, the legendary Mike Tomlin, is joining me on not just football. We're talking unforgettable moments, legendary players behind the scene stories, and his decision to step away from Pittsburgh. Don't miss this two-part conversation. Part one drops Tuesday, November 10th, and part two, Thursday, November 12th. Listen wherever you get your podcasts, or watch on YouTube and Spotify. - Empty strip clubs, doctors with nothing on their schedules. People calling 911 to report their car stolen only to find out that they were actually repossessed. Forget GDP in the yield curve, because some of the first signs that money is getting tight show up in places you never think to look. On this week's "Net Worth and Chill," I'm counting down 12 recession indicators you wouldn't expect from people financing their groceries with by-now pay later to grandma heading back to work to your favorite 2000s ban, suddenly announcing a reunion tour. Plus, what each one says about where the money is and isn't flowing. Why a former Fed chair was reportedly watching men's underwear sales, and exactly how to protect your own finances if you start spotting these signs in your life. Listen to "Net Worth and Chill," wherever you get your podcasts, or watch at youtube.com/yourrichbf. - People don't mind a podcast that runs out, 'cause it's pretty obvious that this is a paid advertisement. The problem is when listeners feel like they didn't know you were getting compensated. And I don't think people mind. I think when Howard Stern had a snaple on his desk, and he was open, yeah, we're getting paid. That's fine. It's not, the problem is when it's not disclosed, but more importantly here, I think this reflects something bigger. This is effectively what's going on between the influencers on the right. It's a food fight at a funeral. And that is, the outreach economy always needs a villain and defeat kind of removes it. So the influencers are turning on each other. And the undisclosed paid post raised FTC disclosure questions, it's just, this is a very small conflict of interest. I don't see this as that big a deal. A lot of influencers have gotten tagged, and maybe had to pay a fine. We're not disclosing that they were getting compensated. The bigger issue here is how they're turning on each other, right, that they seem to have, they are shooting their arrows at Democrats. It just feels for a brief time Democrats have this pretty serious shield surrounding them. So now they're moving on each other. Everybody is pointing fingers at the other. But I think this, I would think this story kind of comes and goes. I don't think this is going to be in the news cycle very long. The, I think the more interesting one is McCran, the McCron family going after Candace Owens, your thoughts. Couldn't happen to a nicer cow. You know, she took a wild incendiary rumor and it's like a dog with a bone about it. And I go for it basically is how I feel about that. And you know, she has like a very strange listener base. I think I talked to you about this that after the 2024 election, I was listening to a focus group of swing voters, think from Pennsylvania. And a couple of the Kamala voters, their main news source was Candace Owens. And she's one of these completely like heterodox stops for folks. And she's very talented. You know, I think being able to do that, I wouldn't be able to, you know, talk for a couple of hours straight, you know, on my own. I certainly also, my imagination can't go to the places that hers do to invent this idea of that Brigitte McCron is actually a man, no matter what pictures you might be looking at. But, you know, she certainly has a big following, very dedicated. And but, you know, if you're going to spread rumors like that and then you're not going to give it up. If the law says people can move forward against you, I certainly think they have that right. And I understand why the McCron's don't think that this is something that you can just ignore. - Yeah, this is, it really, it always amazes me. When you look at the charts and podcasting, she's always way up there. - Yeah, huge like popular. - To your notion, some of the things she says are just so out there and then she doesn't, she doesn't withdraw and say, okay, this isn't playing well. She just doubles and triples and quadruples down on these things. I mean, the question is, do people just find it amusing and sort of, you know, sort of tune in like watching a bit of a car wreck or do they actually believe this and think she's speaking truth to power, but whatever it is, she has aggregated a really large audience. And also, it's a monologue, as you pointed out, the majority of successful podcasts have either co-hosts or guests because there's no back and forth to fill the gaps. So you have to give the people who do these individual monologues or, you know, I do it on Proph G of all the podcasts I do, hands down the most difficult as Proph G 'cause it's just me. You know, you can't, it's some of the friction and some of the ease. I know I get on, when I get on this with you, with the right data, that if I'm not for whatever reason, I know that you're gonna be able to fill in the blanks and that we'll create some friction between each other or some sparks, whatever it is to fill those empty voids. She is, I hate to say this, you know, she's a talented person, but this stuff, I just, I'm shocked, it's still in the news cycle. I'll be curious, the law around, I believe, defamation is you have to show malice that you generally want to hurt these people. You have to show that you know your information was false and you just continue to spread it. Despite that, in three, that it's causing you economic harm. So this will be, but this will get a lot of attention when this case comes up. All right, let's move to listener questions. Sam asks, who do you think will actually be press secretary, Jess? - I think they're gonna rotate it for a long time. Honestly, some of the best briefings came from when the folks actually in charge of whatever department, like Secretary Rubio was doing it and JD Vance was doing it, when at the beginning of Caroline Levitt's maternity leave, before she actually ended up saying that she was gonna leave the administration. They were some of the best performing sessions and reporters felt as well that they were able to get real answers to their questions because they were asking the people in charge of it. My worst nightmare, and I guess now that he's chief of staff, it's not gonna happen. But some people were joking around about Stephen Miller being the press secretary and I would have to, at the right age of 42, retire from the world, if Stephen Miller were the press secretary. So I think, I don't think the actual day in a white has much of a chance considering what's gone on the past few days, but I think they're gonna rotate for a while. What do you think? - I think the press secretary is the president and I don't, did you think he feels a need right now to even have a process. Well, he went and did the press briefing himself yesterday and he had a great time and the reporters have a great They love being able to access him like that even if he goes after you like he was nasty to Caitlin Collins again One thing that I brought up on Saturday and I think that we should be doing I want a democratic shadow press secretary where we have a briefing every day whether that comes after What the Republicans have said or just that we know, you know every day at 2 p.m. There is going to be a top tier democratic Communicator telling you about what's going on in the party. What's going on with the Trump administration I think it would be fantastic content and help a lot of people also feel better about what we're doing You know, if you don't like how came Jeffries how you communicate? You know like Chuck Schumer and I mean we'll see now if Chris Van Hollins actually getting in and you know What's going to happen with leadership there? But like let's just get a good talker. We're the parties full of good talkers Yeah, it's and not only that I think we drive the president crazy if those if those You know democratic press briefings or democratic democratic responses got bigger turnout And I think you do actually the thing that never I've never understood about you know the Republican of the democratic response to the state of the union address Is granted it's hard to compete with the majesty, but it feels like they're filmed in a bad conference room in a Marriott lobby Like the production values are always really weak on them It but this feels like an opportunity to find somebody who has real cinematic skill on the democratic side And to have what feels like a fairly high status You know press briefing and I think the bench is so strong on the democratic side that it wouldn't be who to pick but who not to pick Um, all right Tiffany who wants to know what do you guys think about near attendant antagonizing the left just your thoughts I feel like this is a two terminally online question for you especially because you're not on Twitter Um, so I can take it. I I could ask Tiffany. What do you think about the left antagonizing near attendant? Right, this is the fight that's going on between the progressives and the moderates You know who had a bigger night what was actually the impact of a Bernie Sanders endorsements was coalitions are getting bigger Blue dogs and new gems versus progressive caucus I think this is Twitter porn more than anything And you know, Nira to her credit shows up she debates Medi Hassan she goes on with Sam Seder And I think that it's important for people to want to take their beliefs into any venue Um, so I think everyone is trying to antagonize each other Some degree to get the clicks and the likes um, but to also hash out the realities of this big tent last year We were saying oh, we will we have a big 10. How will we make it work? We just made it work on Tuesday night So that's what you're seeing Yeah, I think a lot of the Democrats have said correctly that you know blue versus arguing versus incandescent blue It's just not productive at this point and this is a moment of victory in everyone You know, there's being a sore loser and there's being a dumb winner where you start taking your ammo in your victory and aiming at each other I just don't see how that benefits Democrats at all and I think we look at the data and talk about okay is the I mean look at the mayoral race in L.I. Was it a referendum on socialism or was it just a very weak incumbent And if you look at it as you pointed out the majority of the people who won They would probably be best described as moderates. I think that's you know a conversation We don't need to have an argument on the left. I mean, this was an enormous victory for the left Biggest victory probably in half a century and to not just sort of say well done and high five each other even for just a moment To me seems very unproductive Benjamin asks what is Elon's new tax reality going to be in Texas? huh So the the question over the longer term is and I think this would be I think Democrats would be smart to do this in terms of proposing new tax policy even if it doesn't go through I think they should propose policies that effectively outline their agenda And their platform moving into 28 But another pretty big tax loophole that needs to be closed is that Bezos or Musk can create wealth In a state in states like Washington and California and benefit from their infrastructure benefit from the fact that A lot of them was talented human capital ends up in Washington, California The fact that Californians spend so much money and energy on creating an unbelievable university system that produces some of the brightest people for a technology Whether it's a great you know whether that's a huskies a great University of Washington system obviously the Cal State and University of California To basically leverage and build your wealth in large part We had governor Newsomont stage a few days ago and he pointed out the California Investors invested 350 million dollars in tax credits into Tesla and then to aggregate 10 sometimes hundreds of billions in wealth and then piece out To a low-tax state because quote unquote according to Jeff Bezos who wants to spend more time with his father And then when he finally sells the stock as long as he's been a resident you have to be there I think for longer than a year You enjoy zero state taxes versus 13 and a half percent In California what we need to do is what we do with options and that is a few exercise a capital gain on options not on equity You get as a founder You have to pay the tax on the amount that was accreted or when the went where the options were vested So if 75% of your options vested while you are a resident of California the capital gain on Those options is taxed in the state where it vested we need to do the same thing With founders equity or with shares and that is you can't or you shouldn't be able to aggregate 120 billion dollars in equity And then as we begin to sell it After leveraging the incredible infrastructure of these high-tax states Move to a low-tax state I just that loophole needs to be closed I also think it's going to be part of the same package where People decide to start taxing or that it what triggers a capital gain tax Is when you borrow against stock because the basic construct for how the mega wealthy get more mega wealthy Is they never sell their stock they buy their stock or they're awarded they're awarded their stock when they start a company And then they borrow against it to fund their life thereby letting their capital or their stock grow tax deferred And this is essentially you know a trick for getting exceptionally wealthy and I would imagine the same Package is going to say okay if you borrow money against your stock You're sort of realizing a gain on that stock and it should trigger some sort of tax but this is a structural issue around Our high-tax states who these entrepreneurs benefit from Should they not pay it pay it backward if you will what are your thoughts Not nearly as good as your thoughts Go on no, I was just going to add to it that my colleagues launched a new theory of the case of why There can't be any investigations into Elon Musk, which is he's done too much good and he has too much money And I was like did you not Here or see what happened last Tuesday and how people Feel about the idea that the quote unquote oligarchs of our society are untouchable. That's all I got And that Gina and Yosa has said You know, we're obviously going to still be fair to mr. Musk But there should be no guarantee is of getting to run rough shot or across our system You know getting special deals I'm that other folks wouldn't be entitled to so Yeah, I think governor, you know, Hosa needs to be careful as do all the newly elected republican leaders or democratic leadership To show that the changes they want to make are structural and affect everybody That they're not going after a specific company Yeah, that's just because I mean there are a lot of states that would love to have space acts I think she I think she needs to say look we're going to look at all data center deals And make sure that they're good for taxes We're going to look at you know tax policy across working with the federal government tax policy She shouldn't probably even I think mention individuals or individual companies And I think one of the one of the real flaws of the Trump administration was he started playing favorites with companies And look if you want to finance or have If you will, you know funding for the chips industry fine Because there is a security concern and there is national interest in ensuring that we maintain our lead in chips So if you were to say okay, we're going to Give $200 billion for infrastructure buildoff for chips, but any chip company is eligible for that That is I would argue good governance when you say we're taking a stake in Intel which immediately puts at a regulatory disadvantage the chip companies that don't have a stake in Intel That's his bad governance and I don't think the president or a governor Other than a positive light should be talking about individuals or individual Companies no, especially if you don't want them to freak out on you in response and obviously she had that lawsuit To be able to see Elon Musk's emails with governor Abid and we talked about that when she was on raging moderates With us about a week out from the election But you they still control the DOJ and you don't want to be seen To be operating with malice or a grudge versus you know Just wanting sunlight To be on everything. So yes All right, let's leave it there Jess. Make sure to tune in tomorrow at 1 p.m. Eastern time live on YouTube and sub-sac to catch Jess and Aaron Parnass. I'll be back on Thursday, Jess. Have a great, where are we? Great Tuesday and Wednesday. - Yeah, I love my Tuesdays and Wednesdays. - There you go. (upbeat music)