Golden Slipper & William Reid Stakes Day w/ Jules Vallance
78m 1s
The podcast features a panel previewing an upcoming racing weekend highlighted by six Group One events, primarily at Caulfield. The discussion begins with an analysis of track conditions, anticipating a significant advantage for on-pace runners, especially leaders, based on recent patterns. The focus then shifts to the William Reid Stakes, where Jimmy Star is the favorite but faces concerns due to a poor barrier draw and potential tactical disadvantages, likely leaving him midfield or worse. Alternatives like Tropicus, Jigsaw, and Charm Stone are considered strong contenders due to their speed and better gate positions. Panelists debate betting approaches, with some favoring on-pace horses such as Jigsaw and Tropicus, while others see value in Charm Stone. The conversation also touches on other races, with mentions of short-priced favorites and strategic punting based on track behavior, concluding with a general sentiment that the day presents tricky betting opportunities requiring careful observation of track patterns.
[MUSIC] [MUSIC] Vincent gets him out now and here he comes. Denon Kingley gets up the rail, golden 60. They roar for their home town hero. He's a length player over Sally Os running on mother earth. It's golden 60. The locals can't beat him. The international's can't beat him. This is his house. Fortress golden 60. >> Hava, Cora, Dildon fast. The server, 100 to go. Dredsy's teeth, lead three quarters, Cora. Observe is holding them. He's the stronger. He's the winner. Observe them on the derby. Cairing rising, stoked up. Purtin says, come on boy. Show the Aussies what you've got. Cairing rising, moved up to overpass. Leigh from Jimmy Star. The Cairing rising. Champions do what others can't. He's the world's best friend in home now. >> Saaki joined by Animo who looks destiny in the face. At the 150, Animo takes the lead. Brutzerky, Alakin, a blood-owned bandha straggler. The stand-in-bone player, Haasan the straggler. Animo holding on, Animo. This time for the big A. But it's about an Animo. Wings down the middle. Kings will train with 100 and getting desperate. Now Wings is storming home. Wings down the top. I'm just too going to Cairing. [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] >> G'day listeners and welcome back to the racing previews podcast. Very exciting weekend upcoming because we've got six group ones, no less. Five of them are at Roe's Hill Gardens for Australia's. Maybe the world's greatest two-year-old race in the Golden Sibba. We've also got the William Reed, which has been transferred from Roe and Valley to Corp here this year with Roe and Valley out of action. All your regular on tonight, myself, Will Alfred and Nick Mugolta. We've also got Jules on for his by-yieldy contract episode appearance. Jules, thanks for coming on again. >> Thanks for asking me boys. It's two times a year where I say, yeah, but I'm really excited about it. When it comes to the day, I go, oh my fucking god. It's good. Thanks for getting me on again, guys. It's a ripping day. I suppose for us, maybe a little bit down here in Melbourne, until it goes a little bit away from us a little bit. But you think about it. Five G1s covering pretty well just about all distance ranges. It's a belt. >> Yeah. Doesn't get too much better, does it? Bona and Nico, how are you guys? >> Excellent. >> Yeah, no, I'm good. >> Well, as well. >> But the punters want to know what you were doing last Thursday night. That was so important that we had to give us the flick for a week. I know the racing wasn't the best, but come on, mate. >> Just get away, mate. >> Just to get away. >> Yeah, yeah, this had to get his ducks in a row. If I had to fuck it off to Sydney this weekend, that's why. >> You got a kidney block? >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. >> I'm going to sleep a day, it'll be good. >> Me too. >> Me too. >> Yeah. >> All right, that'll be interesting. >> Yeah. >> But I'm not going to be, I'm going up for sleep a day, but I'm not going to the track. So, wake up that one. >> That's the most joules thing ever. >> You guys are more than one of us. >> You may as well call yourself gay water house with that behaviour. >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. >> I've got a cap, though, I'm actually a bit. >> The filly. >> The filly. >> But is, is he actually the world's biggest groupie joules? >> He just hangs on the co-tails of one of our mates who is doing quite well for himself. And he's involved in some very nice horses, including guest house and hedge. >> Oh, wow. >> Cool. >> Yeah, Bottle just hangs off the back of them and gets the free drinks and free drinks. >> But he's a very smart guy, because that's what he should do. You just take yourself in the right company. >> Get both legitimate chances, too. So, it could be a big way, can for bollumine, I've seen that there again. >> Yeah, or you could probably take the short so he's not going to be here next week. We could be able to wake him up, wake him off, jump. >> Yeah, but we'll be buried somewhere in homebush. >> When you fall out, man. >> Last tomorrow night. >> When the top of peak, yeah. >> Okay. >> Tomorrow night. >> Yeah. >> All right, in the essence of time, we're going to change his things up a little bit. We are just going to preview the six group ones and then we can get to everyone's sort of best bets later on. Core Field will start where we usually like to start. And that is with a little track report and none better to do it than Jules. Raul going back into the true position, Jules. I think it was at nine last week and we saw a very evident pattern with the horses edging off the fence as the meeting went on. We're thinking Saturday could be quite different. >> Yeah, I'm sort of playing right into this space that I think on speed a massive advantage on leaders, just a huge advantage, especially the shoot, which you know, we know is the 1,200 to 1,200 meters plus probably not as pronounced. I think forward of midfield is going to be still a big advantage. But I want to be with horses right there in particular leaders. I think especially if that southerly kicks up, I know that it's sort of sitting around 15 to 25. We can get it up to 25 plus the tailwind. That's how I'm starting. It is my default. Obviously after a couple of months, I might have to pivot. But yeah, I've got a feeling this could be old school core field, drawing track. Really hard to make ground. >> You think in like we're going to be able to good for the start of the day. You think in there is a high possibility of an upgrade? >> I think so. I mean, they clearly. I'd love to get your guys, you guys, thoughts on this. Last week, they just water the inside. I mean, I know gentle steel winds, but Jesus went really slow. The way that race was shaped. And they. Jockies just obviously walked the track and said it's no good, right? So, how many. How many is your theory that they watered inside and. And our side was just. >> Who knows? >> Well, I hear it was so liquid as my head. >> It was really because it hadn't rained through the way, right? >> Yeah, especially Thursday onwards. So it was like, why are they edging off? I found it really perplexing to be honest. >> Yeah. You hear people speak about the irrigation lanes at Corefield that they don't get out to those until the rail is out of certain position. Do they mean the irrigation lanes hard against the fence when it is out? Or do they mean lanes out further that are better? That one has always confused me. >> Yeah, well, I don't know. I know that Out-Nine has played a little bit like that before, and you go back in history, and I think it has. But I just thought it was really pronounced last week. Now, look, it's a whole different set up here because we go back to the true, but. We haven't raced sort of in the true for a while. So, you know, old school Corefield with us, so early, what is our default? What happens? We sort of know the on-speed is a major advantage. So, that's where I'm playing less Corefield are doing something with the inside lanes for whatever reason. I don't think they will this week. I just think it's going to be really, really hard and flat. >> Yeah. That little possible thing I can think of that they were going out to those lanes last week. They might have been maybe a fraction firmer and compacted because that's probably gallops. But still, I was a bit complex like Slut Jules, but. >> And I don't think it really had much impact on most of the best horses sort of won. I think probably in the last few different gravy came up to the inside. They were trying to cut the corner and got beaten a lap. But other than that, to be honest, they ran pretty straight. So, I don't think anyone really got beaten by what happened. It was just interesting that they just didn't want to be anywhere near. >> Yeah. All right. We're going to go straight to the Group One because that's how we run in this podcast. So, it's going to go for two hours. It is Race 8, the Group One William Reid Stakes, 1200 meters weight for age conditions, Jimmy Star, Saddlecloth number one, and Barrier number one. $2.25, and a favorite. The one time he drew Barrier one at Corefield, it was a train wreck in that group at Clark. So, if you're back in him, you're hoping that doesn't repeat. Jigsaw, backs up for the first time in his life, $7.50 from Tropicus, $7.50. He was awesome last start. Barrier killed $10, Andrew Capital, $11, and Charm Stone comes here fresh as well at $15. Jigsaw, it looks like we've got two real spearhead sort of spade horses. And they are Jigsaw and Tropicus Barrier 2 and 11. Do you think Jigsaw's fast enough to burn them off? I think so. I love the draw, especially at Corefield, I love these while I draw as they can sort of just come over to their own thing. And I think seven day back up, they'll just go, you know what? This is at one opportunity here. Let's roll. And where the Tropicus decides to just tag it or hold the inside, I'm not too sure. But I think Jigsaw could control the front Barrier kill Blink at first time, the interesting one. And now there's always the talk that you get the BFT and you can miss it sometimes at the gates, but I think they'll be really one of them.
for a whole respite and probably trying to hold leaders back or somewhere a whole tropicals, which then forces the issue for Jimmy Stahu. As much as Zaryl go, I want to be positive on him. I don't think he gets leaders back. And if he doesn't get leaders back, he gets three back rail. And then we're in the lap of the gods. He's clearly the best horse in the race. But I mean, that's how I sort of start to map it. And then I look at Angel Capital, Ken Hebegin. Ken Hebegin and get a spot in the first five. I don't think it makes it harder for Jimmy Stahu again. But I guess three tells us that Angel Capital sort of can't. But yeah, that's sort of where the speed seems to be, I think, guys. Yeah. Yeah, obviously map horses like tropicals is going to land in a beautiful spot. Charmstone's going to land in a beautiful spot from barrier three. Benadato probably gets a nice map somewhere near the speed or maybe midfield. Horses are probably missed out on the draws. Magic time in 10 is a bit of a disaster. And Jimmy Stahu could potentially be a disaster. But I'm going to be with him. I'm tipping Jimmy Stahu. I think we're betting on him to get luck in the run, to get out at the right time and obviously to jump. But he has been jumping quite clearly in the last couple starts and in his and in his jumpouts as well. So I don't think you get leaders back. I do think you'll be third pair back the fence. I like the fact that tropicals has drawn next to him in two because it just means that there's a horse that will be there won't be any horse next to him after 100 meters. Because tropicals will be too fast for him out of the gates. And that might just give marks are a little bit of time to find his feet and just extricate a little bit away from the fence if you can just begin well from barrier one. So I think I think we're just betting on whether he gets out and if he does, he's probably the best printer in Australia on exposed form. Will? Yeah, I mean, I think I think Jimmy Stahu is vulnerable because he's, well, like we say, he's going to be three back rail. I don't think there's a chance he holds leaders back. We all know he's a 1400 meter true 14-odd meter horse and probably can stretch from mile. He's just raised over 12-odd meters because there's so much more money in it. His figure's over 14 is so much better than what they owe 12. And when you price him off the figures he runs over 12, you can't have him the price he is. And then you got a factor in the fact that he's going to be three back rail. The tracks far so the gaps don't come as quickly as what they would if the track had a little bit of cushion in it. So he's going to have to have to be ridden for a sprint and a turn of acceleration which he doesn't quite have against his horses. He has a long sustained sprint that we've seen. That's why he's so good of a 14-odd meter. He doesn't have that instant turn of foot. So he will need that once the gap comes. I think he has it. And you got to fact that into the price as well. I just thought tropicals was awesome in the Oakley plate ran fast time. I mean there's no reason why if he if he runs up to that number Jimmy start doesn't get out. Like Jimmy star is no, you know he's not he doesn't have a mortgage over these. He can't just give him full lengths at the 300 meters and run over them I don't think. And then Charmstone first up last prep bolted in the Manacado in fast time. So I thought it was a big price too. And then obviously Jigsaw's a nice horse but I just I think he'll be found out in this in this sort of great advice. A little magic time was half interesting at the price to second in the champion sprint last time but the gate probably takes the data play. Been a data half interesting. But probably not interested. I think if you're back with Jimmy star you probably can't win. So I want to be on the on pace is tropicals and Charmstone. Yeah. I reckon tropicals like he's got to run to the level he ran last start. There's probably some chance that he regresses a little bit off that and Jigsaw as much as I love him. He's been so good for me this preparation. The backup has to be some query. It's got to be some query this seven day backup in a much stronger race. He's never done it before. So he's going to have to run across from 11. It's not getting here either. Jigsaw. Tropicus will lead. Jigsaw has got no hope and hope of going fast enough to cross him. I think Jimmy star can hold a position providing he jumps. I think he can hold leaders back. He's not and he's through the fence while I'm still happy to be with him. This makes his job a little bit harder. Mark Zara, money man. There's no one else you'd rather one on in a race like this. Doing what he's going to need to do possibly more than happy to be here on top. If he's running up past the whole straight there's only one on the horse that can win and she was nearly 20 to one. Earlier this morning and that's number nine, Charm Stone. She's a bomb fresh. She's tried up really good. Be it a good field around the valley in this race. Last time. But yeah, I'm really keen to be with Jimmy star. I think Charm Stone's the best way to do it. I think she's a really dangerous. She's good value for your exotics if you want to be that way. But yeah, I thought it was pretty clear. Cut there's a lot of horses in this race that simply and I couldn't. Yeah, I agree with that. I've actually got Charm Stone as a result as well. She should be half a foot. I think she's one of the first features bets I put on earlier this year. I didn't know whether Jimmy star was coming here or not. I'd have her second favourite. Anyway, Julesy, you haven't a bet here. Are you just going to let her. It's a real. It's not a real high for standing to play. I'm going to back Jigsaw Tropicus and probably Angel Capital on the fact that I think Angel Capital can get one one, which is probably like fanciful to think of that. And then I'm also relying on Jimmy star three back rail or worse, just not getting a crack at him or getting a crack at him and not being able to bridge the distance. Yeah, he's never done it before a seven day back up Jigsaw, but doesn't worry. He's been here there everywhere. He's travelled. He's just a bloody good horse. To be honest, it's a pretty unfashionable camp and to be able to win the races that he's run, I think he's a fair animal. And he's continued to surprise me. I've never really found him. And then he's maybe found him in that clam bone big waste. Just because I thought he'd lead around that joint. And then last break I thought he was, I mean, he's going to peak for me. Trust we can do it again. Tropicus loses Williams. And Williams, I think especially in the last six weeks, has been in this zone where he's just riding, fucking like an animal. This ride is premiership week. Yeah, he's just so. I think that's a little bit significant for him, but I still want to be because he's just going to be on speed and happy to be there. And a couple of others you mentioned, like I think magic time just needs to be able to get the toe in. We've just seen every time. I know he's won some races on the drive, but I think his best is soft track. I think he's just waiting for TJ soft track. That'll be his go. Chamstain never really won a mine. But I get it. So yeah, I'm hoping for, you know, you never really hope this, but in a punting world, sometimes you've got to be a bit disparaging. And I'm sort of hoping Jimmy doesn't really get the luck because I'm going to be against him. I'm going to be with on speed horses. Chills will have a six pack on Jimmy's style landing in front of Andrew Capito in the run. Yeah, I'm happy about the six pack. I know what's going to happen. Andrew Capito is probably going to carry on like bot and not want to be a racehorse again. He's a really interesting one. I mean, he's not. It's one of those ones that he deserves to win a great one. I'm not really in that camp. He sort of has a half number to suggest he could probably win a G1, but he's not. He doesn't stamp this as if he's this one that's just been unlucky like sort of how he least was there for a long time. I mean, what can. But he's still. I don't know what to make of him. I just know he's talented. He probably wants a little bit further. He would be the only danger to Autumn Glow and the George Rider. He'd give her a little care again. Come on. Come on. No, he's a better horse. He's a mile. He's a mile. I was a major captain. I just say that for a four bot. I'll have any amount of money on that. I don't think you get you would get 16 down a well. I just just know why. He's just not easy. Must feel about his stride frequency. No, I just don't know. I'm not going to get into that. That's definitely no go. I know you're a fan of Will and if he wants to go down that path, he should go down that path. That is that is stuff that is way beyond my mental. Anyone. He can he can have that. It's actually interesting. I find it interesting to read, but yeah, it's too smart for me. All right, Jules, give us your quick fire core field set if you can. I found this day really tricky, boys. Really, really tricky. I'm back in Cain's chair in the first. I hate the gate. I hate the gate for it. I think he's better getting to the outside of horses, but I think the small field might mean that the the length of string might not be that bad and they're compact. If you can just get clear air, I think he's just much better than him. He's proper horse. Then I'm sort of staying away from those real shorties throughout the day. I'm waiting to the last. I'm going to back gold medalist because I think he's beyond speed horse. It's just crying out for 1,400 metres. Had the two goes at 1,200 now gets to his range. Probably sits in the first four and launched off in a marauder, but I'm just petrified of how these tracks are going to play petrified of the gate and where he lands. Petrified of the blow on top, doing a job for me. Are you a
Are you an early punter these days? We just wait to the day now. No, but yeah, all those ones are of early. So I'll wait probably for the for the William Rade. I'll just poke around there. I'll probably want to see what's happening with Corfield. So usually always was earlier as soon as markets went up on the Wednesday Thursday. That's what I do. But most of them I have, but for William Rade I'll hold off. And a few of the other races I might poke around just depending on track pattern. And a few of those other shorties, they're really short, aren't they? Like the treasurer of the moment. It's got to get feelings, get a good feeling, even planet red. I could poke holes in all of them, but they're sort of racing against the blind. So it's tricky. It's a tricky day. But I know you're keen on Caying Cheer in the first. So I'm sure there was a right smile there when Jules tipped it off as well. I actually think I love the gate actually. Because it's a Hong Kong format was a leader. It went forward and led it a lot of its races. So I thought it presents an opportunity for I think he can almost take up the lead if not lead is back. Okay, if he took the lead up then mate, I'd be, yeah, I think he's, I think he takes the lead, which I'm so snook to last. I'm a stuute cam. God, if they take up the lead, it's just about over. It's a best placement of all time. This is like some of these horses have been very playing. You know, this horse was Caying Rising's pony. It came over with him to a company in its travel to Australia. So there you go. It's now one, two from two in Australia. And hopefully it goes through from three because they need incredibly well-priced well-placed. And I'm also as well as Jules. This happens every fucking time. I'm backing Mr. Bannock too. I thought that I think a mile and a half is going to be such a bot horse. Yeah, perfect. Can I ask because I I'll back this horse and I didn't say it then but can it's 2400 maybe you can turn it like it is. I don't think so. Yeah, okay. I mean, I know you don't want to listen to the strides. What is stride bot? I think he can't. I say I enjoy, I enjoy reading it. I do like it. I'm glad you've gone down. Yeah. I think I think I think it's two miles. You would be slowly. No, I don't think, I don't know about two miles, but I think I think my mind might be his best. My feet is best distance. And I think he's been in four slowly run races. This preparation has been able to win with a turn of speed. And I don't think that's him. I think he's a strong stale. And this is an awful race. I'm should get a blue stone. Mick Kent is amazing with his stays. He smelt the gold. Yeah, that's the problem. But he was good first up sort of plain market smashed him. It sanded down. I didn't really go on with it. Might have just needed that run. I'm should scared of it. But the rest of them are just junk. So that was it. Jackson Rutherford such a good tree-fellow climber right now as well. Well, he's letting himself down on Wednesday. I thought he's letting himself down a couple times at Kramven. He still is. I don't watch those races, but anyway, next race bought. That's it. That's it. Well, there you go. I'm backing. I'm backing Benning and the William Reed or whatever it's got. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. All right. I'm having a couple of bets. I'm going to bracket bet in the sixth that Don Cuswell. I'm backing Point Barrow saving Alpha Sophie. Just want to figure out for Sophie after last time back around at Ben. Good. Jury out on this Adelaide horse, Bassett Babe shows ability, but it's coming to play with the big girls now. So good luck to it. So what are you, your Point Barrow, Alpha Sophie? I'm Point Barrow save Alpha Sophie. Yeah, right. And just for everyone wondering, this race name used to be the Typhoon Tracey. So same race just been named after a chairman now. Snoose. Not touching Trish at the moment with Stolen Cash. Best horse in the race clearly, but multiple setbacks. Now multiple preparations. I think we might be seeing the end of her shortly if she continues on this trajectory. So good luck if you brave enough to back her, but she won't be getting any of mine. And yeah, pretty keen to be with Planet Red. It's just a pretty sort of weak race of, you know, sort of field components. When you break it down, he's got the best form. Can hold a spot, hopefully a little bit closer. That man on top marks our, yeah, he'll just bully them. So really keen there. Could he rotate the double with getting good feeling because it's strictly business, won't be when you're first up. So maybe that's the play. But yeah, that's all for Corfield. All right. I'm also back in Cairing. She won't be one of my biggest bets of the day, but yeah, just strikes a race where it looks like it's progressing still a mortal star. I thought she was a bit weak, to be honest. Last time beaten at an odd zone, quite Flemington and Sassy Boom. I don't think she's really a fresh horse. I don't think she's really a 12-hundred-meter horse and wolfie. I think you can have him. So process of elimination. I hope they go forward and looks more to hard debate. I think he'll start with a two next to his name. I mean, get a good feeling. Hard debate. Race six, Alpha Sophie. I do think can bounce back. You knew your fate with her last start down the straight, but that $1.85 SP has to hold a little bit of weight. And if she, background of Ben, if she doesn't over race, they put the crossover nose band on. Cross over goes on. She got having out the gates too. A lot of people copped her bump and that might have been the reason why she started over racing. So I think $5.50 could be a decent bet and point-barrow. If she doesn't begin well, she's not a known beginner. She could be back and buried somewhere. Trace at the moment. $2 was put up on bet 365. I thought it was Christmas, so I took it and planted red. I haven't backed as yet, but I just want to see how the day goes. He's a horse who is drawn while the last couple starts and he's probably got a name for himself. He's one dimensionally goes back and he flashes home, but we have seen him settle close to the speed and run well. So I don't think they're going to go that quick and I think he'll probably gobble up 2000. So I'll just wait and see there. If I get even money on the day, that would be probably a bet. Okay. We got to Rose who gardens. Jules, any track intel or weather intel from Nick Ashman, you great mate on Foxcatcher? Yeah, he's saying it's raining up there. So he thinks they'd probably be in the soft no doubt. It's a slight possibility that could even be worse than that into the heavy range. So it'll just be watch the cloud. So I think Saturday's probably okay from the rainfall point of view, but then we can all be done tomorrow. So the bad has a real history of playing a certain way because it's just had a bit of racing through the carnal. He thinks rails and run and then sort of no real issues straight where you go, but rails and run Rose Hill can be significant and it'll probably be my default if you're playing at that joint. Just be mindful of that because he can be real savage at Rose Hill rails and run. Yeah, I was looking at the rain radar earlier today and they did receive a big dump of rain in a short amount of time. So usually that's actually a positive wave with trucks because it does absorb it a little bit better compared to you'd rather have 10 miles and half an hour than 10 miles over a couple of hours just because it does seep through the profile. Is that better if you like a going 100 meters is better to run 100 meters or walk 100 meters because you're going to get either more wet or not as wet. Is that the same theory? I think that sounds like a good theory, yes. There was a better to run or walk. It's better to run. You'll get to the destination faster. But aren't the droplets hitting you harder and then like actually then a surface area is covering you so you're getting wetter? This is real. This is real fog. This is like this is like fog. I am chat areas. Maybe you've gotten what I can pick that up a set of rain. Maybe you two maybe one of these can run one of these can walk. That's right. I'm not going to be running. When we go in the different direction I know that's the problem. You'll be running away from it. Forget about stride frequencies. How about micro frequencies? Race 5 is the Rambit Stakes. It's 2000 meter group one and it is wait for age conditions. Aliana or $1.65 in favour from Sir Dillius. $3.20. Lindemann is $11. And Steffi Magneticower I believe is trying 2000 for the first time. He's $13. She's like she made horse nowadays. Who is Steffi? Steffi I don't know. Do they just have a little dart board in the Beyond the Akear racing office and this pick which will they run around just in seven years? It's interesting placement. What's doing? She's been a great horse but like she's just like the final one song that is picking the truth and which race stays the same as it is. Wanna go? She can't win. Let's talk about the speed map. All I cance was scratched from race 2. That was the Manion Cup over 2400 meters. And that could be significant for this race because we've got two clear speed horses. Lindemann draws barrier 3. He likes to get out rolling and dictate and all I cance is another sort of horse you just like to build into her stride and she'll be up there as well. So even though it's a six horse field it could be some tempo in this. Yeah it could be like losing.
later and then another sort of break as well and I don't know about you guys. I really need to see Aliana. Last prep she just had two absolutely belted runs and now what are they they kept it down here in Melbourne I'm not 100% sure and she went sour but a third up run on fourth up run just regressed horribly. Again this prep two runs really good like brilliant and now she gets to 2000 meters and everyone screaming like yes she's waiting for it and it's awesome and maybe she's an autumn fill you or autumn there but a maybe. Let's let's see. Just not sure. I just I couldn't I couldn't come into with that kind of price about her saying that I don't want to back anything around it. I mean I think Sir Dalyas will make her earn it. I think they will they'll go out there and say hey we're gonna be in front of the 400 and probably going for home and you're gonna have to come and chase us is the way I see it. An Aliana might do that but I want to see her get deeper into a prep. He looked after her as a four-year-old mayor in the spring was that because she may have a weak constitution I don't know could he not put the work into it I don't know so I think we'll find out a bit about Aliana not only from the spit maybe for spring at the end of the back end of the year as whether she can become a spring you know or feel cup or because I think she needs to needs to start doing a bit of work. Yeah feels like a bit of day for her she's never started this short ever and she's never certainly never started this short at weight for age level she's been awesome against autumn glow and recent times but I do see a real scenario where Sir Dalyas might be able to get her this weekend so I thought there was some value in the three dollars 40 I've backed him I've got a big price for Linderman H.way all in but if the weather gods run caught me and this race this weather does pour this track into the heavy range then he can't win and he might not even run if it gets to a heavy track so just on weather watch for him that will change the complexity of the race but hopefully we are only on a soft six soft seven I think Linderman leads LL cans will come across and look to pour a bit of pressure on and I reckon I reckon there's a good chance that LL cancels is running here because as they want to give Sir Dalyas a testing hit it up and he felt felt like he needed the run first up that was a very slowly run race in the very elegant and Alianna and autumn glow are always going to out dash him at a mile under that sort of scenario but I think with Linderman and LL cans in this this could turn into a proper two thousand meter test and if he's in front of Alianna at the 400 as Jules mentioned then he gives himself every chance to potentially fender off Alianna I'd still mark clear favorite but couldn't get out that short will any thoughts I just thought that the the price disparity looks a little bit big to me like I the owner who's a faster horse than Sir Dalyas beat him for speed of a mile last time and now they get to two thousand meters and we're sort of half saying to the other guy what a house horse is probably going to pour the pressure on and yeah I'm not saying she's she won't obviously she stays but I think to this point he's he's objectively a better horse than her and if he's ready to go then the prices shouldn't be the way they are so I you know I wouldn't tell anyone not to back Sir Dalyas yep Niko I think you're forced to bet Sir Dalyas at the price like it's a bit silly he's arguably a better horse than her and you're getting double the price like my hands are tied I think Alianna is going really well and she gets out of the autumn glow bubble for the rest of the you know for the rest of the well for this run anyway should we race and are again next time but yeah I just think you have to be with Sir Dalyas I can't I'm not forgetting the horse that we all thought he was before the dream and everything went to shit in the spring yeah I'm happy to be with you and if Alianna beats me well so be it but you know I just think Sir Dalyas $3 plus is a great bet all right let's go to race six another intriguing affair and what looks potentially a mattress that's what the market's got it's Pindas Rosalind he's three-year-old set weights 2000 meters group one of course autumn boy $2.30 the tab opened him even money and they opened to observe a $3 come closer together now observe as $2.70 federalist $12 he's putting his hand up as one of the better maiden horses in the country it's not a tag you really like to have our green spaces $13 Victoria spirit finished off super in that Australian guineas he's $13 and deal done fast well of course he's by done deal and he looks like a real stale as well so he might be one for next time you might be able to run well here Jules you envision that observer might be able to lead him dictate here should I mean that's that's their that's the opportunity I think I mean I'm acting favor shock they went I mean I don't have to have their own opinion on certain things um James Mcdonald helps autumn boy there's no doubting that but yeah I sort of said after the Australian guineas that the race was sort of junky you know it's a bit worried about it and for observers it's a continued win he just had to get to 2000 week they do that they get to 2000 I think it's the right set up I think he's a better horse than the autumn boy autumn boy and if he's in front of him I don't know how autumn boy gets past him other than James Mcdonald lifts it somehow it is he's got the onji core abilities right and you know that's that's just the way that is but um these horses are not they've never rated for me they're not they're not these three-year-old vgo this is the clash of the times I'm going to spoke about this before the random guineas it was like she's a alibi was just going to monster autumn boy because they're just she's just better than like these these guys just don't run a number they didn't run a number in the coffee of guineas you could easily suggest observer should have won that race observer was good in the vase didn't run a number really in the d'avis just beat him up because he was better than him he's classier criminal it just goes with a kind of split like they're they're they're good three-year-olds right they're not they're not super star three-year-olds but I think observer is there in the autumn boy so I expect him to yeah I think I think we're all sort of uh loving what we're hearing there because I've got a lot of query on autumn boy run on 200,000 meters yeah well he'll run it but it'll be slowly at the back well he's dad went to he's dad won this race but he only beat that New Zealand horse by head as well he was he was getting a little bit tight on the line look I would probably mark autumn boy and observer quite similar and I was sort of on the fence about which one to back and then when they put up three dollars observer and two dollars autumn boy my my hand was forced that that basically made my decision for me I took the three dollars observer I'm fully in his camp now he's going to lead here his win in the vase was outstanding I know there was a bit of it was advantageous to do what he did that day around my new valley of course but he's he's the one that's proven at 2000 meters with the stamina in the lungs he's by Gaeath he was a 2000 meter horse he you probably prefer marks are on you might even prefer Ethan Brown on I think the one knock on Craig Williams is sometimes he can go a little bit too slow on these front running horses and he lets those horses behind him with that with a better turn of foot sort of get to him and he's done that a couple of times but hopefully he just rolls along on a observer and I think autumn boy could be in a little bit of trouble wouldn't be surprised if Jaymack won but yeah fully in the observer camp now Nico yeah I want to be with the Australian Gideys form observer clearly on top for me I think Willow's just got a kid to be a bit he's not the easiest of horses to ride he's a bit of a dude like so a bit of a think about it so that is a little observer likes to have a think about it no like he's just I'm not telling him like I'm not calling him non-genius what do you say anything what do you say that's not no but I'm saying like you've just got an easy cult that this needs to be reminded a bit like he's not an ease I don't think he's an easy straightforward horse to ride that's what I'm talking about but I call him non-genuine he's a fucking superstar as a three-year-old against these horses he's top dog he's a superstar against me. Preface preface preface preface. Well he's well like he's he's the best of this lot he's ducks of the he's ducks of the class. We'll find out on Saturday. Yep I'm happy to be with him I want to have a saver on Victoria's spirit it was really good closing two thousand meetings will be no issue for him and I'm going to lay autumn boy the place I don't want to boy I don't think it'll run two thousand meters so I'm going to lay in the place I'm going to have three bets in the race. There you go. But are you considering a bet on your boy here? He's that much of a certainty I'm flying up to city to clap him in. I don't know. I don't know. Like it like it really does pay me a saver I think it like his CV is that of that's I don't like look I love him so much like he's he's my
is my favorite horse, but I don't think he's, I don't think he's this, you know, if he goes to the QE, he like, a pain's me to say it, but I think he's probably not going to that level, but. -Kirin's already said the not going. -Oh, okay. Well, they know he's probably, well, yeah, I think, I think he should be favorite though, I mean, it's like I don't, he's gonna stay 2000 better than autumn boy and I think his form's probably better and a lead. Like you said, in the victorious spirit, it looks half interesting and looks like it's gonna eat up 2000, but I'd hope they'd want to go forward on a green spaces is just about certainty in the Derby. -Yeah, he'll go back and he'll just be running on here. I think Deildon Fas could be a good Derby horse as well. Jules Dirkini will be betting here or just. -No, like, I wouldn't lie to a guy, I wasn't quick enough to get the three dollars for a ton of life, did the pricing and what 64 now observed probably about what I've got in. I think I've got autumn boy like three dollars, three 20, so I'll probably stay out and cheer for both sake or observer so you can have a good day and see me. It might be a bit of shame for him, if he gets bad. -Yeah, all right, Rays 7, we're trying to speed up a little bit here. Surely we don't need to spend too long on this race. It is the George Wider 15-hundred-meter group one autumn glow. A dollar 30 in favourit. She is going for. -Just on you straight. -A leaven straight. And there's a good chance if J-Muck only gets one of either Aliano or autumn boy home, then there's a real chance that this could be the horse that breaks the group one record, 129 to go past, Damian Oliver. Ladies, Shana and Dyer $10, peri-clease, $16, Bayvacht goes to the front, $20 and Greengots, $23. Jules will start with the map just real quick. Bayvacht, he was much better back around a bend last time. -Was the bend or was it the extra 300 meters? -Yes, probably a mixture. -He's got that wild number in the golden road which you'll understand. He's got a 1500 here but he goes to the front. He's not saying he's going to beat autumn glow. At some stage he's going to be. depending on how James rides this horse. And I don't know if he's going to be right there or what he's going to do. -Well, he's going to. -But it might be three in front at some stage. I think it's going to run as a big, big number, Bayvacht, but I think autumn glow is probably going to go past it. But of the others, it's the one that I could entertain at the price discrepancy. It's going to pay massive, very lucky. It's built the platform now to kitchen sink it. Probably not good enough, but I think it'll make it an interesting race. I don't take you as an exotics or a same race multi-sort of work. -Oh, yeah. -Maybe him and Bock can have a little same race together on the wall. -Niko, autumn glow, she's an absolute superstar. She could be a champion by the time the year is finished. I don't think she quite has that tag just yet. We don't want to give that tag away loosely, but she will. She will learn it. How are you going to make an earn out of the race? -Well, I will be playing a same race multi. I'll be taking Lady Shennand Dollar and my exotics. I think she is the most lovely horse to run seconds. Would have beaten jolly style last time. Had she drawn a gate, she's crying out for a fucking race shape that suits her. She's finally getting a little distance with suits there. God forbid. I think she'll run really well. Hopefully Bayvac keeps a bit of juice in the tank for next time in the Donkaster because yeah, well autumn glow won't be gone to the Donkaster because she'll be getting beaten if she goes. She'll go to the Queen Elizabeth. She won't. -She won't. She won't. -I don't know about that. She also got the mail. -No, I don't have any mail, but 1500 to 2000 stinks. It absolutely stinks as a set up and as good as she is and as good as the trainer is. I don't think he will like that set up. -Well, it's not very Chris well. I don't think they want to go to the Donkaster and can see seven kilos to she is now alive. So it looks like Queen Elizabeth. -I don't know. I just want to be surprised if they took the challenge. -I'd love to see that. -Let's be honest, there's money's not on issue to them. If they really mean what they say and they're not trying to protect their record then go and have a crack. Give racing what they want and give them the clash of the Titans. -I think Messiah doesn't want to protect our seals. -I think Messiah wants to protect it. -Fuck, no, he's not going to come out and say that. Absolutely, they're trying to protect the record. -Yeah. -And then Chris on the other hand is like, Chris is like, I've already done this with wings. I'm not doing this again. I'm not being told otherwise. They are 100% protecting her record. And I just don't see them. Y'all know Donkaster and can see it. -We'll see. Will any thoughts on this race before we move on? -Yeah, I thought the Bayou Act was probably the only horse that could have beaten shares in Alibi and a Randwick Guinness or Rose, I know Randwick Guinness. -I think he's got 50 or 51 on a Donny's, so he's very well-known. -I think it's 51 and a half, I think. He's like at way for age at the handicap. If he runs that number, they run the Golden Rose with 51 in a Donkaster. You know, that's a big number. They've got to get to obviously it doesn't quite translate so cleanly as that. But he's a 20 bucks, it's a fair price, I would have thought. Like I know the favorites, like $1.20, so it's not very interesting, but you'll have worse 20 lb deaths. -Yeah, Autumn Go wins. She wins again. Lady Shannandar, Raeels and Run could be an advantage, so that gives her some opportunity to go forward and I think getting up to 1500 is good and Paracles as well. He's proven in a wet truck as well if it does get to that. But I'd probably, I think Lady Shannandar will run top three. Race 8, Golden Slipper, Cheyenne, $6.50 off the back of a very high rating win. Streysian, $8.50, Guesthouse, $9.50, closer to free. There's been well supported, $10.00. And you've got the two Bjorn Baker horses who draw terribly here. What woven $10 and Paradoxium $10.00. Jules interesting race, high pressure and a lot of the speed is drawn towards the outside. -Yeah, and I think they have to, as two year olds, you just have to use your best asset and if it's speed, you just got to do it. So, I can't imagine those ones drawn while going okay, well, let's try something different and try and find it back side. This is a mess. I mean, I think I'm $9.00 that's a deal. The horse that I wanted to run in a second emergency, not going to get a run, maybe lighting can strike two horses but I don't think that this one was going to even drive up there. So, it doesn't really go. -Is that why you're going to Sydney, mate? -Is that why you're going to Sydney? -I'm taking a hammer. If there are, just to be clear, if there are scratching's ahead, nothing to do with it. -No, I've found this. Oh, it's trepon really interesting. I feel like that's one of those ones where if this is a waller, a curin-mar, a tie-pore, in particular, probably, well, even though it is the slippery and it's not there go, or even back in the day, a snow, or what should be like. Yeah, run the big number, have the back off it, run really well at the next time and go again and then massive platform. Stokes hasn't want to slip up. I get it. So, probably a little bit of an unfashionable camp up in Sydney as well. But that's still one where you go. That's sort of been the slipper type of program. They do a good number. Nothing's really done a big number rather than wall-woven pre-magic million if hasn't got back to that. And then back off it and that horse that easily paradoxing or something, that was just a ball around. So, yeah, a tricky race. It's just going to come down to who gets the luck. None of them have done a number, you know? Like, I mean, you guys, none of them have done a number for me outside of wall-woven, as I said, leading to the Magicman there. So, he hasn't got back to that. So, I think he knows. Yeah. As Jules said, this is race as a mess. I've got three futures bets. Wall-woven, paradoxy, I mean, guess how I saw it. Big odds. I'm cheering all of them. The barrageur wasn't kind to me, but yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if one of all-woven or paradoxy, I'm found a decent spot in running despite the horrid draws. And I wouldn't be surprised if the golden super does stay in Sydney. But good luck to Tys. Obviously, Will with guest house. That's who you'll be cheering on, I imagine. All right, you're on the mat, mate. Do really his best. Yes, so how long have I been doing this for? Guest house. Yeah, I thought he'd improve. Like, he's a bit of a nuffy, but I thought he improved in the diamond. He's sort of got it a bit more right other than missing the start, obviously. But if he gets it a little bit more right, he'll only improve with racing. I thought, you know, he's a very talented horse. I thought the favorite probably should have been will over and I don't like it gets the
blinkers on for the first time probably needs another gear change but very good. But also in the 14th. Two on the snotton. Well the dream had been for him to win this race so that he should be strugled off to stuff. But I mean, I mean, the blinkers first time he will like is it, I feel like they're chasing the numbers pre magic millions right? They're like, you know, this is the best course in the right time. I think it eats. But it's had the issue blah, blah, blah, and they can't get back to it. And they're like, maybe that will get it back to it. But they sort of chase and rainbows here. Maybe I don't know that they sort of said, I think I heard beyond say that they worked him in blinkers and he responded to it well. So maybe it maybe this is the one I think probably thinks this is his best horse and he wants to throw the kitchen sink on a seven day backup blinkers on. I don't know. Who knows? I'm not sure if he's going to be able to do that. I think he's going to be able to do that. It is Group 1 over 1100 meters. In Hong Kong, Dabi on Sunday, you can back Little Paradise. It is Drawing Barrier 10. It is a little bit sticky, but up to 2000. It looks the most talented horse in that race. interesting in this figure. I'm Nathan Birkett, why are all the other
pricing incorrect example observer. I just do on their best to help us, doesn't it? So what made that live? We're hoping they're incorrect. Jack Honley has certainly has been forgotten about hence $3.40, bells are the mid-2000 last prep. I think we're saying for the majority that looks a little bit over. Nicky Tyrell, with the potential high speed in the zipper, which horse maps the best to win it? Good question mate. Impossible. Why don't you figure it out? Let us know. Well, Matt Paul's probably like a spice. He missed something, but they're probably. There may be living like a Zem Barley. It's like with Nash. Yeah. Rolls cute. Oh, if that wins a slip or else. Yeah, we all might. It's not one of mine, but it's not one of mine, but it's not one of mine. It's probably one of mine. Yeah, it's strong, Marlon Six. Stu says, "Jules, will you come party with us at this year's Eris, and we get a kaying rising tat for me?" I won't do the second one. I'm out of tattoos. I've fallen in love with too many girls and they're not getting tattoos. I'm then full out of love with them. And he doesn't fall in love with horses because he wants to. You don't put them on. You don't know. I'm very concerned with Will and observer, but I'll just let that go. He'll be okay. He'll sort himself out. He knows. He'll live in there. Yeah, I've definitely been. Oh, he got me there for the Everest this year. I think it'll be an absolute battle. So I'll be there. All right. Make sure you don't block Nicky's farm because we might be calling it at some stage. Yeah, we do with the preview from us and the back in the basement. Ben Zendivard, do you expect Sir Dilly's price to drop over the weekend? I think we're saying yes. I think we'll get well-supported. Connor Mack, need Jules's word, something stack for the best tan in Australia? No. To be fair, you're not looking as tans a lot as you usually do actually. No, no, no. Well, you know, hasn't been that sunny in Melbourne, mate. So anyway, I'm getting up to Sydney tomorrow early. So hopefully it's sunny over that road. You're beauty. Could you beach? You'll be able to have that. Yeah. We'll go somewhere. Malakaz, who's the ultimate professional in this year's sleeper? And why is it Sierra Su? That's obviously a clip to the Daly, the Daly tali graph who had cylinder as the favorite. That's good to get through. I don't know. Jack Jenner. What do you say? What do you use? Chad should be a Taterado. Yeah, they use AI. Other than podcast multi, what's the best multi to take? Lots of good shorties. Jules, if you had to pick out say two short price favorites on the day, who do you think they are? I'm like, I don't know how to do it. I can't even. Not like none of them. So I'm no hope to you at all. And I'm serving. I'm going to be against them, but I just I just I just poke I could poke everything. So Baley Hors, how do you rate taking a horse at $3.20 bonus back? Second or third, this obviously promotional question for our for our punters out there versus $3.75 for say an odds boost example, Cairn, cheer ace one and taking into account, savers, etc, etc. I don't get the second and third bonus back anymore, but I would probably rate that higher than just getting a little bit of an odds boost. If you're getting if you're able to utilize those sort of products and get a bonus back, then they're probably more important. For the amount that you're getting on. Yeah, 50 cents high. I think if you're playing in small fields, there's probably an age there to play in your savers or bonuses or whatever it is. I think it can be probably a little bit of strategic in regards to that. But in a field of 16 or something, I think I'd be taking the better price boost or whatever. But I think there's a slight edge angle in field of this seven to nine, especially if you're taking around that price point 215 or two some like that. Yeah, just a couple of Twitter ones will fly through these. Can Benny hook me up with a bet 365 jacket and ready for the bull carnal cheers? There you go. Announcement? We'll drop a couple jackets and stuff. Yeah, I've got a few things in the works that I'm a. I don't have dead information just yet, but yeah, we're going to. We're going to be hearing the information we're going to drop. You're going to be the model actually. Well, I tell you story, it's going to be a foxback. I don't know if I should be saying this. It'll be a fox catcher event on the Wednesday night. So make sure if anyone is going to. It's off Broadway too. It's not like in one of those joints where every fucking man in his hand go. I'm going to be a beautiful, established, and inside. It'll be fun. As long as no one takes photos of me with any other bookmaker behind my head or whatever, we're good. We're good to go. I'm sure you'll be fine, mate. Toccus odors and punk. Beautiful. Josh Renetta, Birdman in the Australian Cup. Oh, jeez. I read the information. It should be clear favourite. Jules Pratt is January leading Birdman in Tom Kitten nailed down to Fight It Out and who wins it? Birdman. All right. Well, he's flying. I'm not a boss. I've been a fan of Tom Kitten this prep, but Birdman, I think this is beautiful, beautiful prep. Yeah. Skinner, how many links are I graphed the Berners-Winboy? Oh, jeez. He's probably a rightful favourite. Just off the map and the weights, but don't know if you can be that confident. Dennis Roberts, the Velvet Trucksuit is outstanding. That's obviously in that photo. Jules, where do you get these garments from? You know, you just sometimes see a. You do a deal behind under a bridge and you get there where you want. You drop there, you do things doing different things. You just got to put yourself in the spaces and then opportunities are right. So, before everyone to sort of get the space and have a practice. Barrier 13 says thoughts on Oscar's fortune at Ascot on Saturday. Looks a very good race for Nick Erdogan, I don't know if you better look at this, but he's coming up against Almighty Class. There's a couple of good races over there. From a class perspective, Oscar's fortune has got a fair bit on Almighty Class. Yeah, he does. He should probably be reading that race Oscars. Probably on Quacka trial, I would have thought. So, intent has to be there first up, I would think. Yeah, hard enough to beat. Obviously, well, we're touching on Ascot, the two-year-old race, which is race five, Orren Bell. She was the expensive purchase from E-Star that they were half-talking about coming over to Sydney with. She looked down to seven hundred and fifty four at E-Star. Yeah, she looks awfully hard to beat. Yeah, definitely got some talent. Racing now, that's racing moments and this is a screenshot of Jules's face to him one of his previous. Jules, you famously said a couple of weeks ago that one of our favourites, that racing finds a way of employing people, that wouldn't get a job elsewhere. One of the great quotes of all time that, Father. Well, I'd like to be proven wrong. I agree with you, Jules, what it's worth. What is your number one frustration with racing at the moment? Stride free course. No, there's some major flaws in top brass. That was a little bit. I've got to be careful. Yeah, I think a few inquiries with no clows at the moment and I'm not talking about new stuff, well. Yeah. Matt Baird with Browse Trialing on Saturday, what Monday narrative with the team Hawkes push, moral victory with unbelievable sectionals and should have won or the race was over on Wednesday when we drew a bad gate and we had no choice but to go back. Jules, that's a pretty good gear. Did you hear? I just think, I just think, you know, just a parody. So it's great. Like, they just have a lot of things. You guys, all the, everyone, do you know what that's? Jules, why don't you go to the actual horse trainer? I'm not a man. I think so. Why instead of Garrison? I'll write it. It's great. It's great. I love this and doing. It's good for clicks. Jamex protected Kowala, protected Spacey. And how about that? So, Federalist was written for the first time properly. He just carried it last Saturday. Because he'd not been written the same fucking way every race that he's ever contested it. Get back right now. What's the difference? No. Just Josh and Jules the goat. Can we get J-Shin back on while Sydney is hot? Yes, we will be getting our man J-Shin back on very soon. Ryan Baldwin, the record that Jamex is about to equal and break on the same day has to get it done but effort looks good. Is he the, then the best ever to do it on Australian soil? Or does he still need to prove something more? How should I go? Jules, obviously there's more group ons in Australia right now. Many more than there were 30 years ago, 20 years ago. Jamex is getting the pick of the bunch but is he the best that you've seen? Yes. I was, last spring I said Zara was the best. Right at that time and I was Adam and I, to be honest, I think Zara rode outstanding that carnival. But yeah, my lifetime James, you don't know these.
He just gets horses to go right and we see that with the market expectation of a mall and all that kind of stuff. He's afraid. Just to come all the way to go. I'll probably just say just quickly, I don't, I'm not a pom pom guy for him. I'm not. I feel like a major network is and that's fine. They can do that. But he's brilliant. But I think we also should call out the time when he does ride call it. And I wish you know, we got a little bit more critical of them as a whole as a media when he does, you know, when he doesn't ride him well. Yeah. Clark as well, we're heading to Rose with this Saturday. I need you to hit an Fing podcast multi for once. Also, any tips from you lads for picking up women at the races. Jules is probably best. Best place. I'm not the best way. Don't say that. But I reckon don't go to the track looking for one. That's my. The more money you win, the more likely you are to pick up, I would say. Look, look, it's going to be how much would Jules pay to have a betting machine in his penthouse. Well, he does. I can see it in the background. A few rules have just came in. So they're going to be some fun and games with the people to play catch. So yeah. I saw that. Oh, is this the five grand rule? Yeah. I mean, it's already you work anyway with bigger numbers, but to make it five is what's the rule? You can only have five in one whack or just go to you got to sign off on the five K, whether it's whether it's even if you collect. Durkin Ben Durkin Ben's got every time he bets. He's probably got a probably got a probably a deal or something. I wouldn't have thought. Yeah. Well, yeah, it's not like that. I don't know him. Matt Maddales as a bigger observer fan than bot can observe. Please get some positive PR. Fuck off. Shit. Or forever. That is right. The early two times, the early two times he's chapped up tonight is when I when I question this rule. No one can be the number. No one. No one's a letter like that horse. It is much. No, no, no, no, no, you just not. You can't. What's his stride creep with T-bot? Oh, how good was it when Miles Fitzner was going on about that he discovered this horse like after one of ours like he don't know like three and a row. And then come on mate. But bot was all over this horse off a fast time figure. Bot Toby and the cofee. I'm back to you met a hundred of one to win the cofee. Spite. Then he got beat of Flamickton. Mate, bot was telling me that all the son of gay. It's just he just debuted at packing him and got beaten. He's then he shitted it. It's in there. Unbelievable stuff. Mitch Zara off Willow on observer. Is it a cross or a tick? I'm going to say it's a slight negative. He's just got a kid doing a bot. He's just got a right him. He just got to get those sectionals right. I reckon you can't go too slow on him because then it just turns into a mile race and autumn boy might stay him over the top of your. Sure thing. What was bot's strive frequency to get to the tab to take three dollars observer opening price? He did not. Bot doesn't really get into. Fake fan. Only a couple more. Rowan Gregor Alpha Sophie were the stab at five dollars. Yes. Chris says, do they burn the unrose hill if autumn glow gets beaten? I've tried to sell the joint once. They might try again. I don't know. Jules jerkin the heads up B will finally get their way in a decade and maybe Rose Hill is no longer. I'm not a decade. We might not have racing at all the way. Okay. Jules, you're not standing on a cell. Yeah, I don't know. That's two smarter people than me that sort of come in on now. I've sort of talked more involved in punter versus admin but yeah who knows what the hell is going to happen in ten years or two years. I'm going to be honest. Yeah. Ten years time will be at the pub and who can beat him and who can drink the scurrore de quicker. Probably not a bad bet. All right. We'll start to wrap things up there. Jules, what are your next couple of days look like? You're getting on a plane. What is it tomorrow? Yeah, five tomorrow morning. Get up to Sydney. You just got to get the surroundings right and just put the places to avoid. Spend your wings. So get up there tomorrow morning which will be good and find a nice place for lunch and one day the Bronti, one day the Bronti, but we're not charging. Yeah, that'll be me. Sounds good. Yeah. I've told the I've told the I've told Laki that I'm not playing the practice match this week. I said, come on, mate. Give me the give me the weekend off the six group ones. But he they weak job. You're okay. He obliged. I'm wanting to but anyway, I'm going to Corfield. I'd love to be going to Rose Hill but yes, you're right, Nico. Birthday bash or tomorrow. I'm glad you're doing so. Thank you. Make sure to send Ben lots of messages about that on tomorrow. Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the publicity on the show. You get around him. Yeah. Twitter is Twitter is going to actually get a scar right or something. 27 years young Jules. Buck, mate. That's brilliant. Twitter is going to light up and I'm going to absolutely rule him on Saturday night. Well, that's cool. That's what birthday is at 4. He hates going out with me. He's always worse for it. That's why he hates Warnable because it's fucking three days in a row. Sure, that's the only reason. Oh, small doses. All right. Let's wrap the podcast up there. Jules, thank you very much for coming on. I think it was actually really good. I enjoy that. That's that's fun. I'll see you in spring at some stage. You make sure you make sure you're in spring. Oh, yeah, we're coming to that event too. That'll be fun. Yeah, I'll get done. I wasn't supposed to say that out loud, but all right. Good luck this weekend. Punners. We'll see you back here next week. Is it day one of the championships or it can it is? No. Oh, it's one more. One more. Tankered in January. It's a Tankered, Vonery and Australian Cup and then day one of the championships. Good luck on Saturday. Six group ones. Hopefully you can back up. I'm going to say a quest. Let's break it in. Dumb with a state's cut hit as ting. Being with a fake top cane isn't. I don't want to talk news about three. My friend. Three that life is man. Three all the wings. I'm crazy. I just dare to dream. I'm delivered like food like Uber. Reef. Someone talk is cool. That's cheap. I'm putting in work. Tell your team to leave. Creeping round guys like us. They gave you time to them. Ah, man. What a letdown. Maybe next. Like Adam Jim. Working back. I need from Sydney. I don't know. I don't know what to do. So you look good. Then I need you. I want to take this. Good. Then I'll be your A. China get out of the hood. The fuck. The O'Bila yesterday. Nimbami in a G. L. Lenguans. When I come from Miami. Paris. I feel a. Oh, the Jackson. China get paid. So you look good. Then I need you. Good. Then I'll be your A. The fuck. Nimbami in a G. L. Lenguans. Paris. I feel a. Oh, the Jackson. China get paid. [BLANK_AUDIO]
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast previews six Group One races, focusing on track conditions and speed advantages at Caulfield.
A major discussion centers on the William Reid Stakes, analyzing contenders like Jimmy Star, Tropicus, Jigsaw, and Charm Stone, with debate over tactics and draw impacts.
Panelists express varied betting strategies, emphasizing on-pace horses due to expected track bias, while noting challenges for favorites like Jimmy Star from poor draws.
Summary:
The podcast features a panel previewing an upcoming racing weekend highlighted by six Group One events, primarily at Caulfield. The discussion begins with an analysis of track conditions, anticipating a significant advantage for on-pace runners, especially leaders, based on recent patterns. The focus then shifts to the William Reid Stakes, where Jimmy Star is the favorite but faces concerns due to a poor barrier draw and potential tactical disadvantages, likely leaving him midfield or worse.
Alternatives like Tropicus, Jigsaw, and Charm Stone are considered strong contenders due to their speed and better gate positions. Panelists debate betting approaches, with some favoring on-pace horses such as Jigsaw and Tropicus, while others see value in Charm Stone. The conversation also touches on other races, with mentions of short-priced favorites and strategic punting based on track behavior, concluding with a general sentiment that the day presents tricky betting opportunities requiring careful observation of track patterns.
FAQs
The Golden Slipper is a major two-year-old horse race in Australia, often considered one of the world's greatest races for that age group.
The track is anticipated to favor on-speed horses, especially leaders, making it difficult for runners to make ground from behind, particularly if a southerly wind strengthens.
Jimmy Stahu is a top-rated horse favored in the William Reid Stakes, but he is considered vulnerable over 1200 meters and may face challenges if trapped on the rail without a clear running path.
Jigsaw and Tropicus are expected to set the pace from favorable barriers, potentially controlling the race and making it harder for closers like Jimmy Stahu.
Barrier draws are crucial, with inside gates often advantageous for on-speed runners, while wider draws can disadvantage horses needing to settle midfield or further back.
Charm Stone is seen as a strong contender fresh up, offering good value and considered a dangerous threat, especially if the favorite encounters bad luck.
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