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Game Theory #10: The Law of Asymmetry

53m 35s

Game Theory #10: The Law of Asymmetry

The lecture analyzes the hypothetical U.S.-Iran conflict through the lens of game theory's "law of asymmetry," which suggests that larger empires often fall to smaller, more motivated adversaries. While the U.S. holds advantages in technology, propaganda, and wealth, these can transform into weaknesses: technology breeds dependency, propaganda suppresses critical debate, and money attracts untrustworthy proxies. Conversely, Iran's potential strengths lie in its faith-driven motivation, defensible terrain, and strong national identity. However, the key to Iran's success would be evolving into an energetic, open, and cohesive society—traits that could exploit America's internal divisions, logistical shortcomings, and low tolerance for casualties. Ultimately, the outcome hinges not on raw power but on which side better manages its inherent vulnerabilities and adapts strategically.

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We continue our discussion of the US Iran war that is happening right now. So, as you know, I made the prediction that the United States will lose this war. In last class, we did an overview of the military and strategic position. And today, we're going to provide some theoretical framework for how to understand how this war will progress and why ultimately I believe the United States will lose this war. Today, I present to you a very important idea in game theory. And once you understand this idea, you understand why things will turn out the way they do. Okay, it's called a law of asymmetry. Okay, law of asymmetry. And all this is saying is that the United States and Iran are not peers, they're not equals. The United States is far stronger than Iran. And we should expect the United States to overwhelm and destroy Iran really easily. The law of asymmetry states that that's usually not the case. It's usually underdog that has the advantage. And we see this from history all the time. Okay, so when the Persians in about 490 BC invaded mainland Greece against Athens and Sparta, Persia at that time was the first world empire. And infinite resources, infinite manpower, infinite wealth, and it lost the Greeks not once but twice. And then the Macedonians under accent of the Greek and they were like a tribal army, not a very large army. They were able to go into Persia and Persia at the time was basically most of Eurasia and conquered in about 10 years time. The Romans started off as a tribal people which then built the Mediterranean Empire. Then you have the X-Tex, you have so the Vikings, so this happens a lot in human history. A people in the borderlands are tribe, a small ethnicity, are able to conquer a great empire. And the law of asymmetry tells us why. Okay, so I'm going to go over very slowly in detail how this law of asymmetry works. All right, so let's go to an empire. And there are three major advantages to an empire. All right, the first is mass. This just means that they have a lot of people. Okay, we also have an even amount of people. The United States has a population of about 350 million people, but remember, the United States can also draw on the populations of its allies, which includes the five eyes, the Anglesphere, but also includes Europe. It also includes East Asia, South Korea, Japan, basically wherever the Americans have a military base. All right, so most of the world are either allies in the United States or vastels in the United States. So the United States can basically draw on billions and billions of people for its wars. Okay, so mass. Second is the idea of organization. Organization just means a hierarchy of brokers in the elite that allows you to organize your resources and your people in order to generate wealth, which is basically scientific technology. Okay, science and technology, which leads to the most advanced weaponry. Okay, so think about the United States, how they fight this war. They have the satellites that provide for precision targeting. They have these airplanes, these B2 bombers, F15s, that are the most advanced weaponry ever in human history. Okay, so organization. Now last, great strength of the Empire is any of death. Death is the idea that because your people are infinite, because your organization is so strong, because your resources are so vast, you're going to afford to lose many, many wars. Okay, it's not a big deal. The United States loses this war in Iran. If they want to go back, they can go back with even more soldiers, even more weaponry, because their wealth is infinite. Okay, so these are the three major advantages of an empire. And in theory, because of these advantages, an empire should be invisible and eternal. But we know for a fact that all empires fall, and they fall very, very hard. And what honestly, they don't last a very long time, maybe 200 years, maybe 300 years, for most empires. That's not a very long time. So we need to better understand what's going on. Okay, why is it that an empire with these vast resources, they all fall in 20 years, 30 years. Okay, all right. So what we need to understand is that all these disadvantages, ultimately disadvantages, no long term. All right, so let me explain what I mean. Mass, you have a lot of people. Okay, well, you have a lot of people. You create a lot of inequality. Why? Because there's competition for resources. There's too many people. Okay, and this often leads to debt and slavery. And as a result, your people become complacent, lazy, indifferent. They're competing against each other. They really don't like the government. Okay, so they're not really that motivated to do anything, to work or to fight wars, but especially to fight wars. So this mass looks like it, it looks like an advantage in the beginning over time, it becomes a disadvantage. All right, organization means an elite. The problem with this is that over time, the elite become parasites. Why? Because the way they make their money is through red seeking. Red seeking just means that you have power and you seek to monetize your power like exploiting the mass. All right, so basically landlords are a classic type of rent seeking elite. And so they don't really work, but they make a lot of money because they own the land, because they can draw all the resources, because they can draw the capital. And that forces the mass to go into slavery, to go into debt, which is what's happening in America today. The problem with this is that everyone wants a part of the elite, and there are too many elite over time. Okay, so even though you have, you didn't have many, many kids, the power is a zero sum game, it's a hierarchy. And so this leads to the idea of elite over production. Okay, elite over production. This is a term coined by the historian Peter Turchin. Okay, and his theory is that you have turmoil. You have wars, for example, the French Revolution, for example, the father of the Roman Republic, because there's too many elite and they start wars to keep their power for themselves. Okay, so this organization, this elite leads to basically factionalism or infighting. And that's what's happening in America today, where the Democrats and the Republicans, they hate each other, they were using it along. It's leads to political polarization. Okay, so another saying this is that, and then power over time becomes insular. They don't care about what happens outside the world, or they care about is what happens in Washington DC. And as a result, they make a lot of stupid mistakes. Okay, right. Now last thing is death. Okay, the problem with death is that, if there are no consequences to your actions, you become arrogant, you become lazy, and you become incompetent. Okay, because you don't care. It doesn't really matter. And that's leads to the idea of hubris. Okay, hubris is just blindness to your own arrogance, a violent arrogance that makes you mix the mistakes, but you don't recognize your mistakes, and you keep on with being the same mistakes over and over again. All right, so yes, it seems like the empire is invisible, but if you actually think about it, the empire, it's advantages, becomes over time. It's disadvantages, which will lead ultimately to its downfall. Okay, so the mass leads to inequality, the organization leads to overproduction, which leads to fashionism, and and death leads to hubris. That's when an empire must fall over time. But an empire can fall by itself. It needs an enemy that forces it to collapse, okay? And so what happens is that an enemy will emerge that will overwhelm the empire because it is able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the empire, all right? And so one of the weaknesses of this empire. Well, the first major weakness of this empire is that the people aren't really motivated. So if you as people are really motivated, you have a huge advantage, okay? We call this energy. All right? Now, as an empire, you become insular. You refuse to admit your mistakes. You refuse to learn from others. Well, if you are willing to admit your mistakes, if you're willing to learn, if you're willing to promote the best and brightest, if you're willing to be able to crack it, you have a huge advantage, okay? And so this idea of openness. Now, last idea is this. An empire is fractured. So if you're able to maintain cohesion, if people are able to remain united, if they even have a common purpose, they'll be strong, okay? So if an enemy of the empire emerges with these three qualities, energy, openness and cohesion, this enemy will defeat the empire. It doesn't make sense, okay? So what I want you to focus on, actually follow news in this war between United States and Iran is actually sort of a question. Will Iran become an energetic, open and cohesive society? Because if it does, it will become invincible. The empire won't change because of hubris. It's too static, it's too stagnant, too bureaucratic. So the empire won't change. The empire will not admit its own mistakes. And quite honestly, you read because it's a still country of nine to nine people. It's still separate from issues of mass organization and death. And so if it's able to transform itself into an energetic, open and cohesive society, then it will triumph over America. That is the fundamental question in this war, okay? Don't worry about America, its technology. Don't worry about the economy. Don't worry about these things, okay? Just worry about yourself one question. Is Iran transforming as a society? Are people becoming much more motivated? Are people in Iran learning from their mistakes and innovating and becoming resilient on a battlefield? Are the Iranians sticking together as a people, okay? Because if the answer is yes or three questions, then Iran will win and America will lose, okay? Doesn't make sense. Bye. So that's just a theory. So let's now talk specifically about America and Iran, okay? So America will have three major advantages in this war, okay? These three advantages are of course technology, propaganda and money. Well, these are the three major strengths of the American empire, right? Technology is just what you see every day, right? The satellites are able to position target these airplanes that are the greatest war machines in the world, okay? So America is home to the greatest scientists, the most advanced weaponry, okay? That's its technology. But again, means that America controls information space. It controls the internet. It controls the world's most powerful media, including the New York Times, CNN, BBC. It controls YouTube, it controls Google, it controls information landscape. America does not want you to know something, it can hide it from you. America can control the discourse, it can control how you think about the world. That's propaganda. The last thing is money, okay? And it's a very simple idea. The United States can choose the US dollar, which is the reserve currency of the world. And the United States can print as much, as much US dollars as it needs in order to win this war. It has an infinite money printer, okay? And then it can use this money to bribe people to fight this war, right? It can pay for mercenaries. It can bribe minorities to rebel against the government in Iran. It can bribe the women officials to betray the government, okay? So look at these three things. You would think that America is invisible, right? But again, we need to think about the loss asymmetry and recognize that these advantages also disadvantages, all right? So let's discuss this. Technology. Well, you know, if you have those advanced weaponry in the world, you become lazy, arrogant, dependent on the technology, right? So the class example of course is our school where you have access to chat GPT, right? And like you become smarter because you go to access to chat GPT, no, you become dumb, right? Because you become lazy, right? Same goes technology. You would think that with the most advanced weaponry in the world, America will become invisible, but instead people become, the American military becomes too dependent on the technology. It becomes too arrogant, too complacent. Okay, it's like, well, you know, if we get a trouble, then we'll just set in the air force and blow up, okay? So it leads to dependency. And this actually hampers innovation and resilience in a battlefield. And this is what you need to win, okay? You need to be innovative and you need to be resilient on a battlefield, but because of technology, you become too lazy to think for yourself. All right? That's one problem. Pop again though, you would think that, oh, America controlled the debate, therefore that's a huge advantage. It's actually not an advantage guys. The reason why is that in order for innovation and resilience to happen, you need to open the debate, right? You need people to voice the sentient opinions. But if you control the information landscape, what you can do is send store. And that's what America's doing right now. It's something to do to shut up and obey. You're not allowed to point out that this war is stupid and America can't win this war. Otherwise, you'll be kicked out, okay? So this means that there's really a lot of rigorous debate within the American government. We're in the American military, we're in the American elite, which of course will lead to hubris. It will lead to back decision making. No one's, no one will point this out because they're too afraid of pissing off the president and his people. So this shut up in America will keep on making the same mistakes over and over again, okay? We call it drinking on the core weight, okay? Okay, basically getting high on their own supply isn't a phrase that we use. All right. Money and wealth. You think, okay, well, that's this is it, man. We just brought everyone, we just brought the entire world and we're good, right? The problem is this. The problem is that if you bribe people, they're not gonna fight for you, right? Because all they want is your money. So you bribe them, but they'll probably take your money and run away, okay? Or they'll figure out how to get more money out of you by cheating you. So right now, the Americans are gonna fund these militias and ethnic minorities and opposition groups against Iran, okay? Guess what guys? These guys are hustlers, right? They're not funding because they want more freedom. They're funding because they want to rip off the US government. And so this money issue can be a problem in the long term because the people you're bribing, you can't even trust. And they're not motivated to actually win this war for you. They're actually motivated to scam you as much as possible. And they could be actually a problem in the long term because you're putting so much resources into these hustlers, okay? All right. So what this means is that America has a lot of money three major problems. Okay, yeah, three major problems the first major problem is the lack of local will And all this is saying is that the mergen people don't want to fight this war The mergen doesn't mean no wider fighting this war No one cares Okay, but for the reins It's a struggle of life and death Right in the American loses war they go home and forget about it But the reins loses war they are they killed or they lose their country they lose their society They lose their civilization they lose identity they cannot afford to lose this war okay So the first major problem that the Americans are facing is they don't have any political will to fight this war But they're still fighting this war anyway The question I know of course is why why why is happening this actually the most important question and the most complicated so Social will save this for later, okay Second is the idea of logistics and manufacturing So America is very good at funding short wars, okay? The reason why is their events they have the most events weaponry but they have Many fact-tuning issues because as we know America ship odds factories to China So we're gonna send that many factories So yes, it has most advanced weaponry in the world But this weapon doesn't doesn't do any good if you don't have any ammunitions, right? You know many munitions bombs bullets and you need factories for that and we're gonna send really half These factors now I understand that America is trying to upgrade its manufacturing capacity But it's kind of slow, right? So maybe five years from now it will have the manufacturing capacity to fight this war But really it doesn't so that's another Major issue, okay, and then and then the last issue of course is casualties All right, America because it doesn't have the little will of fight this war can't afford to lose soldiers on the battlefield all right so It wants to minimize the death It was minimized battlefield losses because if like a thousand Tens of thousands American soldiers are going home to America dead in coffins I guarantee you because the lack of political will the American people will revolt Do you have protests you will have a lot of violence in the streets? We like to Vietnam Error again All right, okay, so Yes, I understand that America's technology, propaganda and money, but as we discuss these aren't really advantages And these disadvantages are huge so lack of political will, lack of manufacturing and the lack of America cannot afford to lose that many soldiers in the battlefield, okay? And so this situation now determines how America will fight this war and we'll discuss this later on, okay? All right, now let's about Iran Okay so Iran has a lot of disadvantages, okay? But I want I want to discuss right now there's three major advantages that they need to emphasize if they are to survive this war All right, the first is the idea of faith All right, remember that the Iranians are Shia And as such it's a religion of martyrdom of eschatology of individual sacrifice for the great of good The Shia are not offered to die And because their great religious leader the Aitonah Kaminai was assassinated by the Americans and the Israelis they were motivated to seek vengeance To murder themselves for the great of good to seek eternal Paradise, okay? G-Had All right, that's the first major advantage the second major advantage is terrain And all this means is that Iran is a mountainous country It's huge it's three times the size of Iraq Um, so it's very hard for America to invade the country In fact Most analysts will say will tell you it is suicidal for the American military to invade Iran it is a mountain fortress, okay? It's a fortress And the last issue is the last of us just nationalism All right So the Iranians are Persians And the Persians go back five thousand years it is one of the greatest civilizations In human history and as we discussed last semester in the ancient world there were three great civilizations, right? The Jews the Greeks and the Persians And um the Persian culture it's vast it's beautiful and it's deep And that's what gives the reading people a lot of pride Okay, so when they're fighting they're not just fighting for the religion Not just fighting for the homes they're fighting for the entire civilization that goes back five thousand years Right, so these are the three major advantages That the Iranians have okay fate means that they're not afraid to die For what they believe in terrain means that the Americans with a hard problem in the country nationalism means that the people of Iran know what they're fighting for All right, so but again remember having that it seems like a advantage can be a disadvantage as well, all right? So Let's go over what the problems are with faith you might have an issue of blindness Okay or a zealotry Where you're not afraid to die But that means that you're not thinking strategically, okay Maybe you're gonna waste too many soldiers on the battlefield they're brave, but they're kind of stupid as well All right, so you might have an issue where Iran is not using the optimal strategy because Their soldiers are not afraid of death and we're already seeing that where with Americans have already blown up and destroyed They're in navy now and I'm gonna told you that if the first Americans would do is go to destroy They're in navy. So you should probably not use a navy or hide the navy or blow the navy yourself, okay? Because you want to avoid as many casualties as possible But they didn't do that and they in the Americans have not destroyed. They were in a navy. All right, so that's issue of faith Torraine yeah, it's a fortress, but it can also be a prison Right where you're just sort of stuck there and because it's a mountainous region It does not have any resources so Americans can actually disrupt your watch supply to show your electricity Okay, and cost general poverty and hardship for your people Okay, and then nationalism yes Persia is a way culture remember that Iran is a ethnically diverse country in fact only 50% of the population of Iran it are Persians Others are different minorities, okay? All right, so You have then ethnic divisions Right Okay, so look at this now we know exactly What the American strategy will be basically the strategy will be To its flit and flit As many casualties as possible on the Iranians All right to kill so many people as possible Destroy the infrastructure of Iran over Iran so that the people don't have enough water electricity food to survive, okay? The third of course is to create as much ethnic tension in the country as possible by arming in encouraging and bribing ethnic groups to rebel against the government in tarar right Okay, but again What the law of symmetry asymmetry tells us is that the empire Ultimately is not as flexible and open and dynamic as its enemy Okay The weaker person is going to engage in much more self-reflection self-debate then the empire, okay? Because empire will become arrogant. And so ultimately, Iran should triumph over America. And in fact, what's gonna happen is that this strategy that America will use against the Iranians will lead to the Iranians becoming much more energetic, open and cohesive, okay? So let's look at the America strategy specifically. All right, so this is an ethnic map of Iran, okay? Now, certain things that you will see is how divide the country is. Yeah, the Persians are in the center, but people you want to watch are the Kurds, okay? The Kurds and the Azaris and the Bollocks, okay? These are the three major problem areas for Iran and it's always been the case. Remember, the Persians are in the middle. So the Bollocks are, first of all, Sunni Muslims. Now, as we just got to the last class, the Sunnis and the Shias have never really gone along well together. They have different, I mean, the same religion, Islam, but they have different belief systems. That's led to a lot of conflicts in the past. It's almost like the Catholics in the past, okay? And so the Bollocks have been trying to rebel against Iranians for a long time. I guarantee you that they're already, it's really an anarchist special forces embedded in this area, okay? The reason why is that they want to encourage, as much as it's possible, they also want to prepare the graph of the possibility for a grand invasion of America, okay? So they would need a forward operating base. And this area could be a very good place for a beginning of a land invasion. Then you over here, you get the Kurds, okay? The Kurds are another minority that seeks national sovereignty. And right now what's happening is that the Americans in this release are bombing this area heavily and they're targeting police stations. Why? Because they're trying to reduce and eliminate opposition so that they can bomb the Kurds and hadn't come into this area and threaten Iran. What's also happening is that in Iraq, there are these Sunni groups, okay? That the Americans are basically bribing and arming and they're basically fanatics, okay? They're ISIS. And what the Americans want to do is send them into Iran to cause as much problems as possible, okay? Then you over here you have Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, it is an independent country. What really odd is that majority of ethnic asari's are actually in Iran. Six percent are in the country, 40 percent are in the country of Azerbaijan. Which means that from the perspective of the asharajani people, this war could be an opportunity to reunite the people and create a greater asharajani. So these are the three problem areas that you have to watch as this war develops over the next few weeks, over the next few months, okay? So we already know what the American strategy will be because we've seen it in Libya, in Syria before, okay? So what is the strategy? Right, so again, the strategy is to both attack without, okay, from outside and inside as well. So what you're gonna do is this, you're going to arm these people in bed, special forces into these institution groups to lead them and provide air cover so they have a clear path into Iran and are able to limit opposition, okay? Right? So now you're attacking from without. With, I think the platform move in means to cause as much pain and suffering in the interior of Iran as possible, right? And how do you do that? Well, you do that through the competition, okay? Let's go over the strategies. Okay, the competition. And what you're doing is you're removing the elite okay, all we call command and control. You're basically limiting the capacity of Iran to govern itself, to have a leadership, to have an elite, all right, command and control, okay? So that's the first strategy. Second strategy is, area open barment, okay, aerosurprimacy. So again, America has the most advanced airplanes in the world. And the way that it's using its airplanes is to destroy as much military installation as possible, but it's also engaging in acts of sabotage, okay? So what they're doing is they're covered bombing. Okay, so they're covered bombing Iran, okay? They're doing soft targeting. Soft targeting. Soft targeting means that instead of attacking military installations, you attack hospitals. Why? Because you're degrading the capacities, sorry, you're degrading the state's capacity to rejuvenate itself, to be resilient, okay? Now, the last thing is something called double tap. Double tap is this, okay? And it's really illegal or against in actual law. What you do is this, you attack a place, right? You kill some people, and then people try to come and help the people who are injured. And they could be like doctors, they could be immersion person out, it could be relatives, right? And then you strike again to create as many civil and casualities as possible, right? And the entire idea is to create as much fear and anxiety in people as possible so that they lose the capacity to resist, right? And the last thing you do, and so the last thing, of course, is to arm and bribe insurgents. Okay, so these are the three main pillars of the American strategy, and you will see this over the next few weeks. The problem with this is that when you do these three things, you're not actually hurting the Iranians, you're actually helping them. These remember, the law of asymmetry states that whichever group is able to create energy, openness, and cohesion will win. And guess what guys? This American strategy is gonna create a more energetic, more open, and more cohesive power to society. All right, let me show you how. All right, the application. We just said that one major problem for America is elite of production, right? Well, with the plantation, what you're doing is, you're solving this problem for the Iranians, right? Before the huge problem for the Iranians were, you have too many leaders, and they all have their own stupid opinion, and they all want to lead this war, right? But by killing so many leaders, you allow for more mobility, for more meritocracy, right? You're solving the problem of elite of production for the Iranians. That's a huge, huge bonus, guys, okay? So the leadership will become much more lean, much more mean, much more determined, and much more strategic, okay? That's number one. Number two, erosopemacy. Well, when you do this to people, when you carve a bomb to Iran, you're creating more cohesive society. Why? Because the major conflict in Iran for many decades was the conflict between the urban areas and the rural areas. The rural areas were very religious, very poor, very backward, and the urban areas were educated, secular, and progressive, okay? And so this is huge conflict that led to a lot of rights, a lot of protests in Iran. But when you carve a bomb, the cities, which are the main source of support for progressive western policies, you make them united with the rural areas, okay? Does that make sense? There are many people, no longer to themselves, each other as enemies, they see the Americans, they're as really as enemies. You create a much more cohesive society, which are willing to fight together. and that's a problem, okay? Alright, the last thing. Yes, you are arming the assurgeants, the bullocks, the curts, the zaris. Okay, that's fine. The problem with this is that you are now activating, galvanizing, Persian nationalism. Right? For the longest time, the Persian national identity was suppressed by the Theopathy. Because they want to create a more, you know, they want to create a grand religion that unites all ethnicities. When you turn the other minorities against the Iranians, then the Persian people have to come together and remember their history, celebrate their identity. And this is the key, okay? Once the Persian people are able to activate their long-lasting memories, go back in the past and remember their greatness. They come together as an energetic, open and cohesive society. Okay? So yes, the Americans have this strategy that word in Libya and Syria and other places, but it's not going to work in Iran. In fact, it's going to do the opposite in Iran. Okay? And then you're like, well, one of the Americans not do this. And I already told you because it's an empire, okay? It doesn't care about Iran. It cares about itself. And so it's sort of stuck with this policy because remember, it's trying to win this war quickly as possible because it doesn't have to manufacture capacity to fight this war for a long time. It's trying to reduce as many, sorry, it's trying to reduce as many casualties among its soldiers as possible because the Americans don't have to political will to fight this war. The Americans are trying to win this war cheaply and fast. And if it doesn't, then the Americans are not in trouble. Okay? Does that make sense, guys? All right. Let me now conclude, sorry, let me now discuss the Iranian Shad. Okay? So what the Americans are using is a classic strategy called siege warfare. Okay? And so what the Iranians are going to do is they're going to respond with a classic strategy called guerrilla warfare. Okay? And go to warfare, guys. It's just something that's hiding in the sea. All right? So you come bomb me with all the things you have, I was hiding in my mountains. And then when you leave, what am I going to do? I'm going to attack your GCC countries. I'm going to law drones rocket at you. I'm law rocket at Israel, okay? I don't have to strike that hard. I just have to be a pain in the ass, okay? Because then what happens is your force come back and bomb the living hell out of me. But guess what? I was hiding my mountains again. I was hiding in sea, okay? So Iran can do this for years and years and years. But again, remember, America is forced to win this war as fast as possible because there's no political will. They don't have much manufacturing capacity. Then they don't want to, they don't want that many casualties and they can make damage, okay? All right? So that's all Iran is going to do. Iran is just going to be a pain in the ass, okay? A pain in the ass. It's trying to create as much economic damage as possible. It's trying to create as much fear as possible, all right? Which will force America to attack? The grand question is this. Will America launch a grad invasion? Okay? Because if it does, then they block the war, okay? All right? Because look at Iran, okay? Mountains and mountains, deserts. It is impossible to occupy this country. All right? It's impossible to invade. And what they're going to do is be so such a pain in the ass to commit so much to go to the warfare that America is forced to invade, okay, from over here and from over here and from over here and from over here and then eventually, but the problem is that America doesn't have the resources, the little will, the manufacture capacity to fight this war, okay? Does it make sense? All right? So now you're like, okay, I understand all this. But why the hell is this war happening then? If I can tell you this, okay, I'm sure that their generals can tell them this as well. I'm sure that they know that this was the case. In fact, for years, America has been planning to invade Iran and for years, the general says, "No, that's suicidal. Let's not do this, okay?" So why is this happening? And unfortunately, we don't know. Because the administration is not telling us. Our first Trump is like, "Oh, because the nuclear talks didn't go well." But we know for a fact that the Iranians were willing to agree to all terms of the Americans. And then Margueruvio, who just like their state, he came out yesterday and he said something really moronic. He said that. Why did we attack Iran? Because we heard this release, we're going to attack first. And then the Iranians, we're going to respond by attacking both the Israelis and us, the Americans. And therefore, we have to preempt the Israelis by attacking first. That's just retarded, okay? So they don't know why they're doing this. But there's a reason, right? Okay, what clue is this? A clue is this. The soldiers are being asked, the American soldiers are being asked to fight this war. And again, what clue is why this war is happening? But there's reporting that the generals are telling the soldiers, "This is a war for Jesus." This is a war to create the second coming of Jesus, okay? This is Jonathan Larson and he's writing this on sub-status, okay? The US troops were told Iran war is for Armageddon, the return of Jesus. What is this? All right, so, sorry. Some soldiers who are not Christians were told that this is a war for Jesus and like, wait a minute. We're not Christians, we're Muslims or we're atheists. So why are we fighting this war? And so they let thought complaint about this speech, okay? And we're going to read a part of this email that the soldiers who are dissenting sent to some other people to complain about this, okay? So could you read please? I am a NCO rank withheld in our unit. This morning our commander opened up the combat route in the status briefing by urging us to not be afraid as to what is happening with our combat operations in Iran. Stop, okay, afraid. This war tells us there's no war, okay? Right? Can I go in? He urges to tell our troops that this was all part of God's divine plan and he specifically waited a minute here. Wait a minute. God's divine plan? God's not the one ordering them to fight this war. It's Trump or the American military, okay? This is kind of weird. You're going to be annoying. And he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ. He said that President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to earth. Oh my God. President Trump, the fire in Iran. It's all part of a grand plan to destroy the world so that Jesus will return. What is this craft? Okay, keep an eye on it. He had a big grin on his face. Okay, he's happy about this guys. The world is ending. Yeah. Come on going. When he said all of this which made his message seem even more crazy, our commander would probably be described as a Christian first supporter. He's been this way for a very long time and makes it clear that he desires all of us under him to become just like him as a Christian. But what he did this morning was so toxic and over the line that it shocks many of us in attendance at the obsroad and the spree, breathing. Besides, besides myself, I am reaching out to MRFF on behalf of 15 fellow troops. I know you asked me about the religious views of our group who has requested help from the MRFF. I can only tell you that I am Christian and at least 10 of the others are also Christians. One of the others is Jewish and one is Muslim. I don't know the religious or non-religious status for the other three at this time. Okay. So what is happening is that there are some crazy Christians in the American military, in the American government, okay? That want to use this war to end the world to force Jesus to return. That is why this war is happening. I'm not saying that this is the reason why I'm saying like this is a possibility, okay? All right, this is Trump and these all religious leaders that support Trump because they see him as Messiah. They see him as this great hero who will cause the triumph of Christianity and the return of Jesus. And that's a possibility as to why this war is being fought. Okay? Because quite honestly, there's no other reason. It's hard for me to come up with another reason, okay? Alright So this is something that we will look at as we go along. What is this crap? What is Christian Zionism? Why would they think that this war in the Middle East will cost the return of Jesus? Okay? We'll discuss this later on But I wanted to but now it leads us to another problem which is our entire Class is on game theory, right guys. This is kind of weird because What this suggests is that religion is More important, okay? So What's the point of game theory if people don't play by game theory if all if it's just religious fanatics Alright, and the answer is this and the answer is It's still game theory, but the problem is that What you think The game that you think they're playing is not the game they're playing the reward that you think they want at what is not the real what they that they want, okay? We think in terms of material things, okay? So money resources Power we think that the war is being fought over these things and It's not All right the grand secret the grand reveal of the semester of course is this the real power the real currency In the world is not money It is human consciousness Or basically attention Okay, this is this is it guys, okay? When you understand this idea you understand everything But this is how I didn't understand so I'll need some time to actually explain this all right This war is being fought to control The Consciousness of the human race because it is our consciousness that creates reality itself That's the source of all wealth and all power in this world Okay, that's why this is happening in other words This is a war not just for Iran. This is a war not just for the Middle East. It is a war for the soul of humanity This is what's happening guys All right, there's what world world war three is where we're three is meant to be the last and final war of all human history Because over when this war will control the very soul of human existence For the turn okay, that is the end game And I know this is what I didn't understand but as we go along I will explain this to you Okay, that is the grand secret behind the world every that you believe every that you see today. It's all an illusion the reality the truth is that Consciousness is a source of all power of reality itself, and so this is a war For human consciousness. It's a war for the very soul of humanity Okay, any questions All right, I will see you guys next week

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The lecture introduces the "law of asymmetry" from game theory, arguing that historically, smaller, motivated underdogs often defeat larger empires despite disparities in resources.
  2. Empires like the U.S. possess advantages in mass, organization, and resilience, but these can become long-term weaknesses—leading to inequality, elite infighting, and hubris.
  3. For an underdog like Iran to win, it must cultivate energy, openness, and cohesion, while exploiting America's potential weaknesses: lack of political will, logistical challenges, and aversion to casualties.
  4. Iran's strengths include faith (martyrdom culture), mountainous terrain, and deep nationalism, though these could also lead to strategic blindness if not balanced.
  5. America's technological, propaganda, and financial dominance may backfire by fostering dependency, stifling debate, and funding unreliable proxies.

Summary:

-Iran conflict through the lens of game theory's "law of asymmetry," which suggests that larger empires often fall to smaller, more motivated adversaries. S. holds advantages in technology, propaganda, and wealth, these can transform into weaknesses: technology breeds dependency, propaganda suppresses critical debate, and money attracts untrustworthy proxies.

Conversely, Iran's potential strengths lie in its faith-driven motivation, defensible terrain, and strong national identity. However, the key to Iran's success would be evolving into an energetic, open, and cohesive society—traits that could exploit America's internal divisions, logistical shortcomings, and low tolerance for casualties. Ultimately, the outcome hinges not on raw power but on which side better manages its inherent vulnerabilities and adapts strategically.

FAQs

The law of asymmetry explains that despite the United States being far stronger, the underdog (Iran) often has the advantage in conflicts, as seen throughout history where smaller forces defeat larger empires.

An empire's advantages are mass (large population and allies), organization (hierarchy and advanced technology), and depth (ability to absorb losses due to vast resources).

Mass leads to inequality and complacency, organization fosters elite overproduction and infighting, and depth causes hubris and incompetence, ultimately weakening the empire.

An underdog can win by being energetic (motivated), open (willing to learn and innovate), and cohesive (united with a common purpose), exploiting the empire's weaknesses.

America's strengths are technology, propaganda, and money, but they lead to dependency, stifled debate, and untrustworthy allies, respectively, undermining long-term success.

Iran's advantages are faith (martyrdom and motivation), terrain (mountainous and hard to invade), and nationalism (pride in a long civilization), which bolster its resilience.

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