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From the pulpit to the political arena

34m 11s

From the pulpit to the political arena

The 2024 midterm map shows a fragile but promising shift in favor of Democrats, particularly in the Senate, where six seats are now trending toward Democratic control. While the House remains tightly contested due to Republican redistricting and low public approval of President Trump—currently at 37%—Democrats have gained ground in key swing states like North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa. The national economic downturn, rising inflation, and persistent backlash against AI policies—especially data centers—have intensified voter anxiety, with Trump’s promotion of AI as a national priority exacerbating fears about energy costs and job losses. Meanwhile, a notable trend sees Democratic candidates, including clergy and seminarians, using faith-based narratives centered on service and community, such as the Good Samaritan story, to appeal to rural and faith-driven voters. However, this strategy faces resistance from Republican opponents who dismiss such candidates as “woke” or politically out of touch, and from many secular Democrats who oppose religious appeals. The tension highlights a broader ideological divide: Republicans have long leveraged religion in politics, while Democrats are now seeking to reclaim that space without alienating their core base. Ultimately, the race reflects a strategic battle over values, economy, and identity, with both parties navigating complex voter concerns that extend beyond policy to deeply personal and cultural issues.

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The midterm map is starting to take shape. Concerns about AI are impacting how people vote and some democratic candidates running in Republican states are emphasizing their ties to religion in interesting ways. We'll get into all of it and more in our weekly roundup. It's the NBR politics podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Frank O'Donia as I cover the White House and I'm Domenico Monsonero, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent. A big welcome back to Domenico who was away for a couple of months. Really nice to have you back. Thank you. Yeah, and welcome back parental leave. So it's been it's been a nice and nice time away. Now that you might be getting just a little bit more sleep. We're going to jump right into how the midterm map is shaping up. And I want to start with the state of play here. I mean if we're looking at an election held today in the house. How is this looking for Democrats right now? Well, if you're just looking in raw terms when it comes to the house itself, the nice thing about being away for a few months is that it's given me a bit of a bigger picture sort of view as I sort of try to take in the landscape and not a whole lot has changed in the house. I mean, there are certainly things have tipped more in Democrats direction. You see, you know, a handful of seats move from solid into the likely category according to the Cook Political Report. Some from likely to lean lean to toss up all in Democrats direction. You know, you're seeing a dozen or more seats doing that. But overall the landscape hasn't tipped a lot when it comes to the house. When you look at the Cook Political Reports projection, it's only about five to 15 seats right now that they see Democrats picking up. That certainly would be enough to put Democrats over the edge to win the house and pick it up, but it's looking like a narrow majority like we've seen with Republicans. Of course, unless things change, you know, over the next month within the Republican party, you know, sort of not being able to stem the bleeding in many places, you know, then it could wind up being a higher number, but still, you know, it's not looking like it will be an overwhelming wave. And there's a few reasons for that. Right. I mean, the fact is Republicans have been able to insulate themselves when it comes to redistricting quite significantly. The Democratic Party is still very unpopular. And it's just not like 2018 where a lot of those districts were in more competitive places. The districts that are competitive right now are a lot of them in Trump won districts. Yeah. Well, let's switch to the other chamber where like redistricting is not a factor, the Senate. Are things consistent there? Are we seeing some swings as we get closer to the election? Yeah. The Senate has been a much bigger story as far as it moving more. I mean, Cook Political Report, when you analyze their data, six seats have now trended more in Democrats favor, which is pretty significant considering only about a third of the Senate is up. Most of the seats are in the safe category. So when you have that many seats now tipping toward Democrats, you're looking remarkably at a cycle where Democrats started on the defensive. They didn't have much room to really grow. It looked like a long shot that they would take back the Senate. It's certainly within reach that Democrats could take the Senate majority. That's not to say that they're favored or that it can definitely will definitely happen. But a mix of candidates and the national environment has meant that Democrats do have a legitimate chance now of taking back the Senate. All right, so I want to take through the Senate map and I want to talk about some of these states that Democrats think might actually be in play. This cycle, Domenico, why don't you walk us through that? And there are multiple, you know, states that Democrats are targeting now. I mean, North Carolina, for example, is like the top one. I think that Democrats and most Republicans feel like is headed in Democrats direction. It's now lean Democrat. Yeah. According to the Cook Political Report, then you have states that are in this other category, like Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa. Those are all toss-ups now in the Cook Political Report. And we think about a state like Kansas, it had been solid Republican for a very long time and is now lean Republican. It's really quite something that that's even on the map. You know, and you think about places like Nebraska and South Carolina that nobody was talking about that are now kind of in the periphery a little bit. You know, this is a really interesting thing because when you think about places like Georgia, which was a big Republican target at the beginning of this cycle, that's now moved to likely Democrat from lean Democrats. So that's almost off the table for Republicans, and then they have two other targets, Michigan and New Hampshire, both are toss-ups. And if Republicans can pick off one or both of those, it certainly makes the map harder for Democrats. But the map here, as we're talking about, has certainly widened fairly considerably for Democrats, you know, over the last few months. Franco, this is not great news for Republicans. I'm guessing and it's looking as we get closer to the election bleaker for them. I'm guessing this is why we saw President Trump holding rallies in deep red, Texas and Oklahoma. Yeah, I mean, certainly when it comes to Oklahoma, I was on the trip and felt like I was basically living through the scenario that Domenico is describing right now and basically a very, very delicate dance that Republicans are trying to have. With Trump, I mean, they want to keep some distance from him because Trump is not very popular right now in many circles, but they also can't distance themselves too much or risk turning off, you know, Trump's die hard base. I mean, Oklahoma, he's telling them to pretend he's on the ballot as he does in other places. And, you know, that's clearly a very big asset for mega voters, but it's also a very dangerous message when it comes to Republicans. And of course, he did stop in Texas as well. And while it has been a very, you know, red stronghold, it is, you know, there are questions about that race right now, and he went there to support Ken Paxton, who the Republican Canada AG, who's running against James Taylor, Rico, and Trump, you know, praise Paxton, he said he traveled to Texas to help Paxton, but he didn't bring Paxton on the stage. There was no, you know, photo of the two together. And I think that does kind of speak to that dance that some Republicans are having. And, you know, the New York Times reported that Paxton even told donors that Trump's midterm, you know, convention may have been a drag on some of the Republican support. Well, it's always been this double edged sword when it comes to Trump for the Republican Party, you know, when he's on the ballot, he certainly fires up the right and maga, and he's able to bring out more conservatives, which Republicans need, right? But when Trump is the face of everything, he also is toxic for the middle. And that means independence are very turned off by him, and increasingly we're seeing in polling and in some elections, Latinos, who are a key group and a swing group still. And, you know, it's not clear which direction they will go if they will actually show up, if they will stay home, but a lot of what Trump's policies have been, whether it's the economy and prices, or these harsh immigration tactics, have certainly been something that Latinos have viewed overwhelmingly as a negative. And not what they thought they were buying into when Trump won a record share of Latinos in the 2024 presidential election. So these are all warning signs for Republicans, and especially those swing district Republicans who aren't sure exactly how to deal with Trump when it comes to Trump being the national face of everything. At the same time, they can't totally like distance themselves from because they need those maga voters. They need that support to get them over the edge. And Trump is just as, you know, Dominica is pointing out, he's just so tied to the Republican Party. I mean, they're just connected so much at the hip, they can't entirely distance themselves. And, you know, maga voters are, you know, tied to Trump. They're very loyal to Trump. And if they think Trump's being dist, they're going to respond. Here's the thing though, I do think we need to talk a little bit about. And that's the national environment that Trump has created because midterms are largely a referendum on the president that's in office. And right now when it comes to an average of the polls, you look at the New York Times aggregator, for example, Trump's approval rating is at 37%. It's not that far off from the sort of lows of Obama and Biden who are in the like kind of low 40s when it comes to pre-midterm approval ratings. But the only person who he's tied with in pre-midterm approval ratings is George W. Bush in 2006, just before the 2006 election when Iraq was spiraling into civil war. It's the same environment you've got right now for Trump and back then in 2006, Democrats were able to take back the House, take back the Senate. And it's looking very similar to that environment except for the fact that we have a way smaller universe of competitive to potentially competitive seats. Looking at all this, I guess it's not so surprising to see the Senate map look the way it is. Republicans also just don't have a lot to run on right now. The economy gets worse and worse every day. It's really a tough atmosphere for them. Which is why I guess maybe we shouldn't be so shocked, but I am pretty shocked to see like states like Ohio, like that Senate race, look the way it does when, I mean, especially when you're looking at like states that you would assume would be better for Democrats like Maine and Michigan, like it's a very interesting picture. But Ohio has been a Republican stronghold for a little bit now. What is happening there? Let's look at Ohio in the big picture. First, John Hustet is the incumbent Republican. Most people in this country probably don't know a whole lot about John Hustet except that he's a Republican. And when you're seen as a generic Republican or a generic Democrat, you're very closely tied to the leadership of your party. So whatever Donald Trump says and does is going to be very clearly translated to John Hustead and it's something that he's going to have to depend. Now this is a right-leaning state, as you noted, but the person he's running against, it's this weird situation where Democrat Shared Brown is on the ticket and a lot of people think Shared Brown is the incumbent because he served for so long in the Senate. But when it comes to something like you mentioned, the economy, presidents usually get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy. But with the war in Iran, Trump's tariffs, these were choices that led directly to increased prices on goods and energy. The economy is also increasingly bifurcated and you're talking about the Midwest, former Rust Belt places that are dependent on domestic manufacturing and having that base being offshore or put overseas in AI, getting more attention here. There's such a backlash to artificial intelligence that Trump is now doubling down though on artificial intelligence, trying to rebrand it as super intelligence, calling it SI. But look, when I talked to a Democrat Shared just this week, they said you've got to lean into AI in a street fight here because the polling is clear. People are against data centers. They want more regulation and maybe in the long term, it'll help the economy. But it's really helping right now wealthy people because their portfolios are dominated by AI companies. The stock market is continuing to increase when it comes to that because of that. But regular Americans are struggling because inflation is outpacing wages. The labor market is pretty middleing. Interest rates are creeping higher and that's making it harder to do things like borrow for houses and cars. That's why seeing Shared Brown try to make John Houston the face of AI data centers. I mean, Franco, I would love for you to explain the president's thinking here because I mean, I hear from swing voters month after month and this is a huge part of their anxiety. Not just what AI is going to do like to education, raising already high energy prices. It is a big source of stress for people. I wonder how you see the administration navigating this. Yeah, definitely high stress about the energy costs, the unwanted development. Trump is really doubling down at a time when the politics on this are really just getting harder and harder. He's promoting these data centers as big economic engines. He met this week with AI executives and the case he's making is that America cannot afford to slow down during the AI race or they're going to get beat by China. He argues that the data centers actually bring jobs and tax revenue. Trump often talks about these 80-20 issues and that he is usually on the side of the 80% issue. This is not one of them. This is such a huge political challenge for Republicans because it is another very controversial issue that Trump is basically owning right now just before the midterms and it's because of those high electricity costs, because of the unwanted development, because of the noise and because of the very big fear that this technology is going to take people's jobs away. Trump's going to do what Trump wants to do. He'd be making a lot of different decisions if he was really, really concerned about how Republicans would do in the midterms. I think he's focused on his own agenda first and foremost. All right. We're going to take a quick break. Franco, go get a cup of coffee. We'll see you in a bit. See you a bit. When we come back, the curious case of the campaigning clergy. Welcome back. NPR Religion correspondent Jason DeRose is with us. Hi, Jason. Hello. All right, Jason. So you've been doing some reporting on how there's been like an increasing number of Democrats who are leaning on faith and their ties to their religion as actually part of their campaign messaging. We know James Tallerico, obviously very closely watched Senate race in Texas. He's the Democratic candidate. He's a seminarian. But there were other folks that you followed as well. Can you talk to us about what you heard from them about why they're running? Right. Well, there are actually five people who are either in seminary or are clergy running as Democrats, as you mentioned, Tallerico in Texas, but also Frederick Haynes, who's also in Texas running for a house seat in the Dallas area. He's a Baptist pastor at a large congregation there. He's been there for more than 40 years. In Iowa, there are two clergy people running for two U.S. house seats there. Trongariate is a Lutheran pastor in the Des Moines area. In Lindsey James is a Presbyterian chaplain in the Dubuque area in Northeast Iowa. There's also Adam Hamilton. He's running as a Democrat in Kansas for the Senate, and he's a Methodist pastor at a large congregation there. Now, each of them says they have different reasons for running in Texas redistricting. It was a big issue in Iowa. They talk a lot about opposing the big, beautiful bill because of what it meant to rural health care. Neither of those is actually an explicitly religious issue, but one big theme around these clergy or seminarians running as Democrats is the story of the Good Samaritan, that story from the gospel of Luke about being a good neighbor, and what it means to be a good neighbor means to help those in need, and these candidates see running for office as a way to serve their neighbors. I wonder how prominent their religion is and how they're talking about their campaign, their messages, what they want to get done. Is it at the forefront? I guess I wonder for a Democratic audience, which is mostly the voters they're trying to get out. How are they navigating that, where Republicans are usually the sort of folks who have more ease talking about mixing religion and politics on the stump? I'm not sure that they see their religious message explicitly as the winning message. I think they see their concerns, political representation, rural health care, economic opportunity as the winning message, but those aren't explicitly religious. In fact, these Democrats have needed to thread a needle to talk about religion because less than a third of Democrats, according to Pew Research, say, religion is very important in their lives. So they've come up with ways to talk about their own faith and what inspires them and how that leads them into public life and onto certain topics without alienating a largely secular base, but do you know who does say religion is important in their lives? Republicans. At more than twice the rate as Democrats. So when clergy talk about religion, there's also something of an appeal to people of faith who might be, say, willing to cross the aisle, also perhaps appealing to independence. And remember, in Texas and Iowa, where I did most of my reporting, these are in the south and the Midwest. Places where religion is somewhat more central to the conversation than, say, on the East or West Coast. Yeah. Domenical. I mean, how do you see this playing out for Democrats? Because secular voters, by and large, tend to be more aligned with the Democratic Party. If you're going to find a group of folks who identify as non-religious, they're not likely to be Republicans at this point. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, when you look at Pew polling on religious nuns, as they call it, and I'm not talking about the Catholic nuns, this is no religion, not affiliated, 28% of people in 2024 said that they consider themselves a religious nun, up from 16% to decades ago, and 62% of those who said that religion wasn't a big part of their life were Democrats, 31% only were Republican leaning. So, yes, this could have some potential for appeal to independence who might lean Republican or be more moderate, and a lot of the places, as Jason is alluding to, these are red states, right? Kansas, all places that Trump won by significant margins in the 2024 and 2016 presidential elections. So look, when you think about that, that is, it is possible. However, I'll say like in the Kansas Senate race, Hamilton has been, you know, derided about his religion and his, his church being a quote, "woke church" by, you know, Roger Marshall who he's running against, the incumbent senator there. So there's been this sort of push against some of these Democratic, you know, seminarians who, you know, by Republicans to sort of dismiss their religious teaching as too liberal or too woke. But look, this is the kind of thing that, you know, has been at odds within the Democratic party for a long time, you know, and where Republicans have really ramped up the use of religion to say that they kind of own religion. You're seeing a little bit more where Democrats here are trying to push back and own that. But within the Democratic party, it's a little bit of a, there's a little bit of attention point there too, because, because of how much Republicans have used it and made it forefront issue, a lot of Democrats don't want to see a religious candidate or somebody who puts religion on their faith forward. And I think it's a really interesting debate and going to be, I'm very curious to see how these races play out because of that. Yeah, I got to say Jason, like I was a political reporter in Texas for nearly a decade and issues like abortion, like right now there's a law about, you know, posting the 10 commandments in public schools. These are the kind of issues that tend to really inspire and mobilize Republican voters, but they really outrage Democrats. I wonder what kind of feedback you've gotten from Democratic voters as they see, you know, maybe in a different way, but religion, again, sort of playing an important role in, in the way, like candidates campaign. Well, I found a real range. You've got the Democrats in the pews who say they're thrilled that candidates are finally talking about faith and that you're somebody talking about faith that's something. a lot like their own, but you also have people in the pews who say, "I'm leery about this because of the way that Republicans have talked about the intersection of religion and politics." And then you've got this large group of Democrats for whom religion isn't important, and I would say they fall into two categories. They're the ones who say, "Well, I'm not religious, but it's fine if folks want to talk about that." I talked to many people in that category, especially at a lot of James Taylor Rico events, who were like, "I'm secular. I go to the gym. That's the only thing you do religiously. But I'm happy with the people who are interested in Taylor Rico because he's a person of faith." But then there's this other group that really do want a separation. I would call them the strict separationists who say they do not want to hear about faith stories from their candidates. They do not want to hear appeals to Scripture. But they might still vote for that candidate, then probably they will vote for that candidate, probably because they're Democrats, and they want to vote for the Democratic nominee. And of course, you have these clergy candidates, opponents who are also spending, as as Dominico said, a lot of time questioning whether these pastors and chaplains and seminarians are really Christian, or really pastors. In fact, in Iowa, Lindsey James' opponent, Joe Mitchell calls them "penos" pastors in name only. Of course, they are real pastors, and they are real seminarians. Some of them have spent 20, 30, 40 years in ministry. They just have a different view of what the commitments of Christianity mean in public life. You know, it's funny because we all have different inspiration for our values. You know, whether that's came from our parents, our communities, and a lot of that for many people is a religious background. That doesn't necessarily mean that your religious values are going to translate exactly to policy. And what you think that, you know, the Bible tells you is what you're going to then put in place as your policies. It's more of a statement of values, right? And I think for someone like Tallerico, I think it's really interesting because we're talking about the idea of separation of church and state. There's been a viral clip that I've seen going around where Tallerico is telling another representative from Texas, who is a Republican, who wants the 10 commandments put into schools, why the 10 commandments shouldn't be put into schools? And he's basing that on the Constitution and the writings of James Madison. And, you know, he seems to trip up this representative who thinks he's talking about Thomas Jefferson, for example, who wrote the Declaration of Independence. So it's not quite so clean cut as this person is religious, so they're going to use the Bible to then create policy, which is, you know, I think the fear on the left, a lot of times, when it comes to especially those on the right, where they've heard that more explicitly, you know, particularly from Southern Baptist. You know, Domenico, in fact, James Tallerico came to prominence and I interviewed him years ago, not as a candidate for anything, but he was just talking out against Christian nationalism. He was a state legislator who was publicly speaking out against Christian nationalism. And that's how he sort of came to prominence among those of us who cover religion. And then suddenly, he became the Democratic nominee and he's in seminary. So people sort of assumed he might be more interested in less separation, but he's actually quite interested in separation of church and state. Well, and if you think about why he gained as much attention as he did in speaking out against Christian nationalism, you could argue that because he's a seminarian or a pastor in training, that he had some authority in being able to talk about scripture and being able to say, no, these are what they're doing is bastardizing my view of the Bible and that that's a fundamentalist view that's inappropriate and shouldn't be used for public life is arguable that you know, somebody who is a pastor has more authority in being able to make that argument than somebody who considers themselves secular. Yeah. Yes, maybe more authority, but also just more ability to do it because they have spent their lives publicly talking about their faith in ways that many people just sort of have a private faith that they don't really talk about that much. But you know, one thing that I found with a lot of these people, especially the Presbyterian Chaplin, she said it's not just about the preaching, it's about the ministry of presence, it's about listening to people being present with them in their most important, most difficult times, whether it's the birth of a child or the death of a parent, and that a good politician should be able to be present and listen to the people that they want to serve as their representative. I do want to talk though a little bit of where things might get a little trickier for them. I'm thinking on like issues like abortion, where you know, the democratic platform may not always align with certain religions. How are these democratic candidates navigating that? Well, it depends on how your religion talks about an issue or abortion, and for these Democrats, they all come from denominations, Presbyterian Lutheran Baptist Methodist that have many different points of view on abortion, and those are all sort of encompassed in a big tent. There is no one dogmatic church teaching on the issue, on many issues, in fact, for many Protestants, especially mainline Protestants, like these folks. Now, that's very different from, say, the Catholic Church, although it's important to remember that, you know, while the Catholic Church teaches that abortion is a sin, very large numbers of self-identified Catholics, roughly, I think six and ten, according to Pew Research, do favor abortion rights. It's not always the religious shibbolith that some religious leaders want to make it out to be, look at a Presbyterian congregation or a Lutheran congregation or a Methodist congregation, you're going to have a whole variety of views about abortion there. Similarly, these candidates in Texas and Iowa have all voted against bills in their state legislatures that restricted rights for transgender people, the bathroom bills, the youth sports bills that were passed in recent years. And their opponents have actually taken them to task for that, saying that those aren't Christian stances, but within Christianity, there is a whole host of views about trans rights from conservative to liberal and everywhere in between. And I think these candidates are demonstrating that Christianity is not one thing, but many things in America, and that no one party has the market cornered for people who call themselves Christians. All right. Well, thanks so much, Jason, for sharing your reporting with us. Happy to do it. One more break, and then it's time for Cantletico. And we're back. And so is Franco. Hey, Franco. Hey there. Okay, so it's time for Cantletico. This is a part of the show where we talk about the things from the week that we can't stop thinking about politics or otherwise. I'm going to go first. I cannot stop thinking about this moment in a town hall. Yes, this is, I'm sorry guys, it's more politics for you. So in Florida, my lovely home state, Byron Donalds, he's the Republican nominee for governor. He held this campaign event where he took questions and there's this exchange that happened that we're going to listen to, which went a little viral and was posted on social media. Here, take a listen. Florida does not protect grandparents rights if a regular parent and a regular grandparent or grandparents that they argue they don't agree the parents can cut the grandchild out of the grandparents life. And that has happened to me. I have not seen my grandson since August 7th of this year. And I want to know what could happen to cut the fix because it's because of penniness because I would be used to babysit because I had plans. Okay. Okay, I mean, I obviously feel very bad for this woman. She's obviously going through something very emotional. But man-o-man, do I also feel for Byron Donalds? This is a tough one, man. Like, what do you do as a politician when, you know, like a town hall is really, it's a great, like, lowercase D Democratic service to have, you know, voters talk to you about, you know, what's going on in their lives. But man-o-man could sometimes that really take a left turn. Yeah, I'm, I definitely, so many different emotional swirls going on, you know, but certainly understand why politicians often are kind of reluctant to have these town halls because of that. But, man, I can't imagine the family dinner conversation in that family. Yeah, but, you know, I mean, I do think that these kinds of town halls are a test of whether or not a politician is skilled to be able to handle these kinds of things, right? I mean, if you can't handle a constituent of yours who's clearly going through something very difficult and meaningful in her life, then how are you going to, you know, do well at a debate on the House or Senate floor. I mean, I do think that these two things are, are not completely unrelated. And, you know, I think it's good practice for these politicians to be able to show they can feel people's pain, but also be able to, you know, push back if they need to push back and talk about what the law is or talk about what openings there could be or referring people for help. You know, whatever it is, right? I mean, it's part of showing your humanity. Yeah, I will say it's only been two months, kind of the nuclear option to go to a town hall and ask a lawmaker to solve this for you. Anyways, okay, Franco, you're up next. What can't you let go of this week? I'm going to go back to the faith theme and a little bit of sports because we got to minute ago here. My can't let it go is that Pope Leo and whether he actually sought some divine intervention to help the Chicago White Sox make it back into the playoffs. You know, Pope Leo Chicago born a lifelong fan of the White Sox, and he was actually asked playfully if he had anything to do with the White Sox surprise. rise returned to the playoffs and he just smiled and said no comment. He's a big White Sox fan. No doubt about it. Remember there's the old video of him at the 2005 World Series all of that? I'm sure he probably said a prayer or two. Yeah. Why not? Probably. It's a risky prayer to me because it was just a little while ago that he really riled up some soccer fans, especially Barcelona fans, when he acknowledged that he personally roots for Rao Madrid. So I will say here in the U.S. I expect Cubs fans, Chicago Cubs fans, and frankly all baseball fans will give the Pope a little bit of a pass here considering it is his lifetime team. Yeah and God's got a lot going on. So he may or may not have heard the call. And the White Sox could use any help they can get. Nice. Domenico what can't you like on this week? I can't let go of probably the one thing that's more controversial than politics. Taylor Swift. Oh my gosh. Yeah. That is politics. What he's talking about. This is like the third album of Rao people are not happy. So there's that but I think I'm kind of more focused on the VMAs which I actually caught this past week because I thought it was interesting she unveiled her new gauzy video after getting the first artistic you know director or artist director award from the VMAs. And look it's a it's a really interesting video. It's got Dakota Johnson in it. It's got Colin Farrell. The thing though that kind of got me a little bit is what does everybody know about Taylor Swift that happened over the past year? She got married. Yeah. Yeah. Right? Married at Mads Square Garden. It's supposed to be this love story. Your English teacher married your gym teacher blah blah blah that's what you want to make it sound like right? Yeah. And what is this video about? It's about another X who she's dragging. So I don't know if I'm if I'm Travis Kelsey I'm feeling like I'm on the clock. Like because can Taylor so my question here is can Taylor Swift have a career that doesn't involve dragging an X to be able to make music. I mean you apparently should one song that was like kind of about love in a positive way and it wasn't very well received. Yeah. You know I think actually this is a volume problem. I think Taylor just needs to take a break. Like maybe she needs to find something to write about in her life as it is because I think she's just working too much. I mean look I one of the best albums that came out this year was in my opinion Phoebe Bridger's new album. She took years to make that and Taylor is pumping out a record like every year or every other year at least. I think like she has to go back to the hits because I don't think she has enough time to come up with new ideas. One of those records is blowing up every tour is blowing up. It's fair but also Travis Kelsey knew exactly what he was doing when he handed over that little friendship bracelet. He knew what he was doing. He knew the relationship he was getting. Oh 100% I don't think he cares. I mean you know I think that that's all good but I'm just artistically curious if she'll move on from dragging X's now that she's married at some point. Yeah I mean I got to say Franco just because like in a word journalistic outfit and I'm not a swifty but I do know this he never actually got to give her the little bracelet. The story is that he wanted to and then he got on his podcast and he was like I wanted to give Taylor Swift this little bracelet with my number and she heard it and that rest was history so. So he just left it in his he just has it's in some like drawer or something. I'm sure he eventually gave it to her but yeah interesting times. Okay that's all for today. Our executive producer is Mithoni Maturi. Our producer is Bria Suggs, Casey Morrell, edits the podcast. Special thanks to Dana Farrington. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Franco Ordonia's. I cover the White House and I'm Dominic Lamontanaro Senior Political Editor and Correspondent. And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcast. [BLANK_AUDIO]

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The midterm map shows a narrowing edge for Democrats in the House, with only five to 15 seats projected to shift, largely due to Republican redistricting advantages and lingering unpopularity.
  2. The Senate landscape is more favorable for Democrats, with six seats now trending in their favor, signaling a credible path to a majority despite a conservative base.
  3. Key competitive states include North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, and Michigan, where shifting public sentiment and economic concerns are reshaping the political terrain.
  4. President Trump’s aggressive promotion of AI as “super intelligence” is creating political friction, especially over energy costs, noise, and job displacement, fueling voter anxiety in swing areas.
  5. A growing number of Democratic candidates—particularly clergy and seminarians—are incorporating faith-based messaging to emphasize service and community, though this risks alienating secular voters and faces pushback from Republican opponents.
  6. Religion is a double-edged issue
  7. The national environment—marked by low approval ratings for Trump (37%) and a deteriorating economy—mirrors 2006 conditions, making Democrats’ comeback a plausible, though not guaranteed, scenario.
  8. Republican leaders are caught in a strategic dilemma, balancing Trump’s appeal to MAGA voters with his toxicity to independents and minority groups, especially Latinos, whose support is eroding due to economic and immigration policies.

Summary:

The 2024 midterm map shows a fragile but promising shift in favor of Democrats, particularly in the Senate, where six seats are now trending toward Democratic control. While the House remains tightly contested due to Republican redistricting and low public approval of President Trump—currently at 37%—Democrats have gained ground in key swing states like North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa. The national economic downturn, rising inflation, and persistent backlash against AI policies—especially data centers—have intensified voter anxiety, with Trump’s promotion of AI as a national priority exacerbating fears about energy costs and job losses.

Meanwhile, a notable trend sees Democratic candidates, including clergy and seminarians, using faith-based narratives centered on service and community, such as the Good Samaritan story, to appeal to rural and faith-driven voters. However, this strategy faces resistance from Republican opponents who dismiss such candidates as “woke” or politically out of touch, and from many secular Democrats who oppose religious appeals. The tension highlights a broader ideological divide: Republicans have long leveraged religion in politics, while Democrats are now seeking to reclaim that space without alienating their core base.

Ultimately, the race reflects a strategic battle over values, economy, and identity, with both parties navigating complex voter concerns that extend beyond policy to deeply personal and cultural issues.

FAQs

Several Senate seats are now trending more in Democrats' favor, including North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. Democrats have a legitimate chance to gain a majority, especially as competitive districts in previously red states like Georgia have shifted to lean Democratic. However, the shift is still not widespread, and key races like Ohio remain in play.

The national environment, including President Trump's low approval ratings and economic challenges, is creating unfavorable conditions for Republicans. Additionally, redistricting and voter concerns about AI and inflation are fueling shifts in voter sentiment, particularly in swing states.

These candidates often emphasize values like compassion, service, and community through the lens of faith, drawing on the 'Good Samaritan' story. Their religious background is used to appeal to faith-based voters and show a personal commitment to public service, though they avoid overtly religious messaging to remain inclusive.

Some opponents dismiss them as 'woke' or 'not real pastors,' but these candidates emphasize their long-standing ministry and commitment to listening to constituents. They often differentiate their faith-based values from political dogma, stressing service and presence over doctrinal strictness.

Religion plays a nuanced role—used to connect with faith-based voters, especially in areas where religion is more central—without being the central message. Most Democratic voters are secular, and candidates avoid religious appeals to prevent alienating a broad base.

Rising costs from AI data centers, job fears, and energy inflation are major voter concerns. While Trump promotes AI as a national economic engine, many voters, especially in rural areas, view it negatively due to high electricity prices and unwanted development.

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