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Friendly Fire: Israel Election Stalemate & Dancing Into the Midterms

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Friendly Fire: Israel Election Stalemate & Dancing Into the Midterms

The transcript covers a range of topics, from tax relief advocacy to political analysis and cultural trends. Tax Relief Advocates (TRA) presents itself as a trustworthy solution for IRS debt, emphasizing real, actionable relief over fear-based advertising, and highlights its strong customer reviews and credibility. Meanwhile, Kalsha introduces a live market for political betting, allowing users to trade on election outcomes with real-time data and a promotional code for a $25 bonus. In Israel, the upcoming election is framed as a political stalemate, with no new leadership and deep divisions over military draft and coalition strategy, leading to potential minority or unity governments. On the U.S. midterms, polling shows tight races, especially in Michigan and Ohio, where voter turnout and demographics play critical roles. Political messaging is criticized for lacking substance, with Democrats failing to present a viable alternative to the status quo. Media reactions to political ads—like the Vance ad—are seen as disproportionate and inconsistent, suggesting a bias in political outrage. The discussion also touches on linguistic trends, noting the rise of "maxing" as a new slang, and a broader skepticism of doomer narratives around AI, with experts arguing that AI is a tool with real-world benefits but also risks that are overstated. Overall, the content blends practical advice, political insight, and cultural commentary, underscoring the complexity of modern elections and public discourse.

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In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers are competing in one of Kalsha's most traded midterm matchups. You can visit Kalsha's midterms hub to track how the market views the race and then trade an event contract on the outcome you think is going to happen. If you're right at settlement, each winning contract is worth $1. See the market. Make your call. Trade what happens next on Kalsha. Use code DAILY, D-A-I-L-Y, to get up to $25. Trade $25. That's Kalsha, K-A-L-S-H-I, Kalsha. Trade on anything. 18 plus only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contracts trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Kalsha products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, you can go see Kalsha.com slash regulatory. You're not going to know after the election tonight who's the prime minister because there's not a clear majority, almost certainly, in either direction. Yeah, right. That's what I've been reading. Yeah, like, also, attempts to, as with all foreign elections, attempts to project American ideas onto what the foreign country's election is are really silly. Like, the Bolsonaro failure in Brazil was not about Trump, and Bibi not doing particularly well in this election will be not about Trump. And it will also not even really be about October 7th. There are a bunch of domestic political issues over there that have been percolating for the last 10 years. And essentially, you have precisely the same election situation that you had back in 2022. Right, right. I mean, I can explain all of it. I mean, it's actually not that hard to explain, but yeah. Isn't there any kind of sense that there has to be a reckoning about October 7th? I mean, I think Netanyahu's terrific, but somebody. I mean, so the answer is kind of yes, but the truth is every single person in power has been involved in all of this, meaning that the opposition is led by Gadi Azinkot, Gadi Azinkot was the head of the IDF. The other two members of the opposition are Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, who were both prime minister in the years leading up to October 7th. And so literally everybody who is in Israeli politics was in a position of power in the years leading up to October 7th. There really is not any real new blood in the election. And so what this really comes down to, as always, is about 65, 70% of the Israeli public actually agrees on policy. And then it's all about, do you want a coalition with Bibi? Do you not want a coalition with Bibi? You know, obviously people upset at Bibi for having cut the heads off a bunch of his political opponents, the people who are upset with Bibi because they think that he has corruption allegations against him, that he's been prime minister too long and all of that. And so the most likely outcome of all of this is either a unity government or a new election. I think that both sides, the Bibi side and the opposition side, neither one of them are likely to reach the 61 vote majority necessary to have a fully functional government. And so you could theoretically have minority government where Gadi Eisenkot has like 50 seats and then the Arabs from outside the government don't bring it down with a no confidence vote, but they don't sit inside the government. I think that's unlikely. There are other members of Eisenkot's coalition who don't want to do that. And so the kind of great hope I think on all sides is for what's called the unity government where Netanyahu and his opposition are in the same government and they basically have a rotating prime ministership. This would be convenient because two years from now, the presidency of Israel comes open. That's kind of a ceremonial position like the Queen of England. And that means that Bibi would kick from the prime ministership into the presidency. And then Eisenkot would take over at that point. And you'd end up with a pretty durable majority, probably 75 seats, 80 seats in the Knesset. That's kind of what everybody's hoping, but it'll take a while to get there. Oh, interesting. Yeah, that kind of makes sense. I mean, he can't remain prime minister for literally forever. You know, like at some point, he's going to have to get out of there. That's interesting. And again, the distinctions between the parties are very, very narrow. So Eisenkot agrees with him on Gaza. He agrees with him on Lebanon. He mostly agrees with him on Iran. He agrees with him on Iran. He agrees with him on economics. So this is really much more about sort of political maneuvering and the weirdness of a parliamentary system where everybody's sort of gaming for a particular ministry, a minister of defense or minister of foreign affairs or whatever it is. And so because of all of that, it's a lot more complicated than the public would want it to be and a lot more personal. It has almost nothing to do with the response to October 7th. If there's one kind of chief issue in Israeli politics, it remains the drafting of the Haredim, the so-called ultra, orthodox. They aren't drafted. They're the people who are sitting with Bibi in the coalition. And so a lot of the people who don't like the Haredim, for this reason, which I actually agree that the Haredim should be drafted, that for this reason, they don't want to vote for Bibi's coalition. So the new unity coalition would actually probably exclude the Haredim. And so you'd end up with everybody from Smotrich on the right over to maybe even Yair Golan on the left, not the Haredim. And then you solve the Haredi issue. But the Haredi issue lies beneath pretty much everything in Israeli public life. Imagine if you had a population. In the United States that let's say we had a universal draft and there was one population that not only did not do military service, but was also heavily welfare dependent and didn't believe in the quote, unquote secular state. Well, that that's the Haredim. And so there's, there's enormous amounts of discontent with Haredi population, which is also increasing incredibly fast and represents a major voting block. And then there's also another major voting block, which is the Arab voting block in Israel, which also doesn't do military service is also very welfare dependent and also has qualms about the existence of the state. So again, there there's kind of this, so we're middle, but that middle has been unable to come together. But what about, you know, obviously the response to October 7th has been one thing, but just the fact that it happened, the fact that this shoebox of a country surrounded by genocidal maniacs, you know, let down its guard like that. Isn't that, doesn't somebody have to be hung out to dry for that? I mean, I mean, normally again, the answer would be yes, but the question is who is the party best place to hang somebody out to dry? Meaning again, the opposition is led by a guy who was in BB's war cabinet. At the beginning of the war from October 7th to June, 2024, Eisen call it was literally in the war cabinet with Netanyahu. And again, he was the head of the IDF. And so there's something in Israel, it's called the conception, right conception. And so there are a lot of Hebrew words that are sort of bastardization of English words. A conception is conception in Israel. And so there's this idea in Israel that was bipartisan that Hamas had basically been contained and that now they just wanted to govern their little area. And now that was a bipartisan consensus that was held by everybody from the opposition to the BB of it. And so, I think that it would be very hard for anyone to say this was just a BB problem as opposed to this as a whole problem with every party. And there hasn't been kind of a next generation of leadership to rise yet to replace all of the old leaders. And I think that's kind of what you're saying. I thought the issue with the Harad demon military service was that you couldn't fit a helmet over those big fur hats. I mean, it must be some haberdasher way to, to fix that. I don't know. I'm not an expert, obviously on Israeli affairs, a much more important issue though, gentlemen, the dictionary.com word of the year is maxing. And I feel somewhat responsible for that. And I'm very delighted by it as well. Mr. Clavicular changing not only politics and media, but also the English language. Yes. A very important person. And I think, I hope you were mentioned as like being this proving that you're one of the pettiest, least important people. I really, I wanted to, I, this is like a very unpopular view. Clavicular, you know, Clavicular who again, I only sat down with once it's like Clavicular. I hardly know her, but I was very, very impressed. Very impressed. That guy is one of the youngest media geniuses I've ever met in my life. He knew exactly what to say. And just the way to say it, he was, he was, I know people like make fun of him and it seems kind of goofy and everything. I hits himself in the head with a hammer. I was actually very impressed with Clavicular and I feel like dictionary.com has vindicated me. Oh my gosh. There's some kind of investigation. There's some kind of investigation for like chasing people. He was like shooting alligators with a gun and you know, he has a different woman every night and yeah, there's a lot of, you know, he's got, he's got to get on the right path and everything. But, uh, but beyond that, well, you know, the guy, he, I don't even think he invented the word maxing. He just popularized it and now he gets all the credit for it. Here's the thing. Um, in the history of the English language, there've been certain figures who have radically expanded our use of it. And predominantly I'm thinking here of Shakespeare who, who entered a bunch of phrases, phrases into the parlance that we are still using today. Um, I am bemused by the fact that the people who used to expand the English language were, were some of the brightest and most well-read and well-spoken people on the planet at the time. And now we have been reduced to this on we laden 22 year old who nearly dies of drug overdoses in the clubs. And this is where we are getting our, uh, this is where we are getting our linguistic upgrades. I know it's, it's, it's terrible. It's terrible. Oh my God. And then, then also I have to say like, this is not to take a, to take a, a maximizing would be, the word and to just shorten it to maxing yeah and then to proclaim that this is a new word is the dumbest form of change in the english language that i could possibly imagine no but it's more concise now you don't get it it's now but it's more concise you know well i mean i can we should just call it ming we'll make it shorter we'll just keep shortening it eventually we'll just grunt at one another we'll actually just hold up hieroglyphics you know we're turning back to our animal state by taking words that were four syllables and now we are turning them into two syllables and congratulating ourselves on the thing about the providence of it though this announcement came out right around what what feast did we just have saint crispin's day uh is is this a cosmic analogy between clavicular and shakespeare both of their names end in air you know this is i don't know anyway i just want to take all the credit for it if i possibly can another story that we must hit before i hit the teaser is anthropic is going to ipo for 10 gazillion bajillion dollars and they are telling you as they're trying to sell people on their company they are saying that they might destroy the world which seems like a bad strategy if you want to have a really good ipo and yet this is the the story the whole time is the world going to end and should i buy in on the ipo well i'm in if it's going against the end of the world i want to invest yeah yeah that's i think that that would be what i would be investing in i would be investing in put put us all out of our misery you i don't need a return that's enough of a return for me hold that thought it's friendly fire yeah no i was just gonna say it's it is an amazing ipo strategy actually because it's sort of like the greatest humble brag it's like the oppenheimer humble brag right like like look at me this is so horrible it's so horrible i have the godlike powers to destroy all of mankind in my hands and what what am i going to do with that i'm i'm like little old me having having just having the capacity to destroy all of humankind like anthropic is basically saying our technology is so unbelievably good that we could destroy all of you like that and and also you can buy into that at the grand price at the grand bargain basement price of x dollars per share it's it it is it is ridiculous ai is not going to destroy all of humanity you know ai will have some impact on the job market it will make many things more efficient and that's pretty much what is going to happen in the future so i'm not going to destroy all of you that's that's all if the gigantic thermonuclear weapons that were created by mankind literally obliterate all of humankind did not obliterate all of humankind and in fact sort of made humankind slightly more peaceful then i i have a feeling that uh and anthropics release of the next version of claude isn't going to do it you know an investor buddy of ours someone he's he's a civilian so we won't name him but he's someone that we all know he a very smart investor he is a is kind of an ai bear he thinks that this is all really overblown and he's a very smart investor and he's a very smart investor and he's a very smart investor and they're making promises that they can't possibly keep and these valuations are totally insane and he ben has the exact same take that you do which is that all of this talk about how we have to contain this model of claude because it's too powerful it's too genius it's going to destroy the world that it's basically all just marketing and pr and these are interesting computer companies but you know let's keep it in perspective people your life is not going to end as we know it i think i i think though that there must be some some good to it because china is spending an awful lot of money spreading panic and trying to convince us that this shouldn't be done and that you know there's nothing to see here and we should before it kills us all a lot of that stuff is coming from overseas and that means that means to me that it's a useful tool that they don't want us to have and we're obviously ahead of everybody with it and we should just stay that way i you know i'm with ben and being kind of sanguine about it i'm sure it's got some dangers just like you know nuclear bombs had dangers but it is kind of amazing that the major thing i mean are nuclear weapons the first major advance in weaponry that was has not been used for this long a time it must be it must be unique in that and so people actually you know people don't destroy their their homes until they've moved out so when the new world was discovered then they had the world wars that took europe out you know but first they had to be able to come to america so maybe when elon musk gets to mars we should go with them because after that the earth is you know they can get rid of the earth the earth is extraneous but i just i just don't see it it seems really useful tool it's going to be interesting it's going to be it's going to be a big change i think i think there's going to be changes involved in it but but why can't people just use it i mean why you know i i use it i use it in very primitive ways but i think that uh i see people using it in really good ways and then people really the thing that worries me about it most is that the porn is going to be great it's already great 13 year old kids no this is true 13 year old kids are making porn out of their fantasies which is not going to be good for them and so i think it's going to be local girls in the porn and i think that that's awful you know i think like you might as well just give feed them poison now yeah uh because i think that's going to poison their minds and poison their lives and poison their sex life so that's that to me is where the kind of danger that i'm looking at i don't think it's going to take over uh a nuclear you know facility and blow us all no i had this fear right when when ai and like deep fakes and everything were coming out everyone was talking about how terrible it was that some actress you know jennifer lawrence or whatever uh what was going to have all this fake porn made of her and i remember this years ago i said no no the the real fear is that like that girl in your math class is going to have all this porn made of her like that's the but but what about the concern that ai is going to get really really good it's going to be able to defeat all of our security software it's going to hack everybody's bank account it's going to get everybody's information and there's there's no way to control it some of the ai oligarchs have have been warning about that is that not a real threat yeah no that's a the possibility of that threat not by restricting the development of ai but by developing counter measures for for that sort of stuff i mean weaponry has advanced for all of human history and then there's been counter weaponry that's been created in order to legitimately stop all that from happening and so this isn't a gigantic secret i mean people have been talking about the the idea that essentially the ai is going to be able to break crypto uh that it's going to be able to decode and decrypt everything on the internet and all your passwords are going to become obsolete for for a while so i don't think it's going to be a big deal i don't think it's going to be a big deal i would i'd be a little shocked if nobody had planned a sort of defensive mechanism against all of that it doesn't mean that we aren't going to be dangerous to it but i think again the sort of catastrophic doomerism about all of this is is a little bizarre and i think it's it's a on any major shift in the economy i think people are looking for sort of reasons that are not just i'm afraid for my job as to why you should be scared of this because it sounds a little bit you know namby-pamby to be scared for your job because of ai but it sounds a lot more altruistic to say that i'm afraid that all of humanity is going to be destroyed in the nuclear you're going to be broken but i think there's legitimate concern for people who are in white collar jobs that their their job could could be lost in the near future that there will be job transitions and they'll have to figure out something new to do but again the thing that i keep thinking about is is how i use ai and how i think you know other people use ai it is a tool it's not a thing doing something to me i'm not being acted upon by ai i am acting upon the ai i am the agent in this particular mode now i know they say that eventually they'll become independent but i would assume there are fail states that are put in place so that the independence of the agent isn't capable of just overrunning the entire system now again i'm not saying there's no risk to it but it seems to me that right now the vast majority of people are not using ai to develop biological weapons against one another it seems like they're mostly using it to at worst create horrible pornography or dumb memes on the internet and and yeah i think like every other tool i think the real danger of ai actually is that it's going to exacerbate a lot of the already present conflict you know trajectories economically i think that that's the thing that that is that is going to have real societal impact because there's this idea from the tech bros that the democratization of intelligence right that's all ai is everyone will just be super smart now right you're 100 iq guy ai is infinite iq therefore u plus ai is infinite iq i don't think that any tool in human history has ever worked this way i think that that people who are smart tend to use tools better than people who are not quite as smart people who are adept tend to use tools in ways that people who are not quite as smart and so if you think of ai as a tool then it will probably broaden some of the inequalities you see in sort of the natural performance of human beings in ways that are upsetting to the apple cart i also i just have to caution some of you so well drew just one quick point because the audience should be aware of this you have to take ben's commentary with a grain of salt because ben is himself an ai you know who was constructed in the laboratory for facts and logic so obviously uh you know brain is all you were saying yeah no i think i think there's a structural argument we should make too which is that the media i mean if ladies decide this season they're going to wear their hemline an inch higher or lower you get endless articles of panic about what this is going to do to the moral status of the country or feminism or whatever it is it seems to be the way the media panic seems to be the language that the media speaks so when you have something that is like this is going to be a larger change you can kind of expect this this panic disaster uh narrative to filter in and it doesn't mean there's no truth to it but i do think it should mean especially after we saw the global warming thing destroy europe's energy uh business you know i think we should be really really cautious before we panic you know i mean i think uh i i grew up where we used to hide under our desks in school so that the nuclear bombs wouldn't fall on top of us i think the nonsense that this kind of thinking generates has kind of proven itself to to be you know ridiculous so i i I just think we should do things as the dangers come up. It just seems to me really clear. Even the stories in which AI agents have acted, it seems, independently, that was the actual experiment they were doing. I reported on the first one of those, but that was actually the experiment. Could these guys do stuff if we didn't police them? But there's no reason we can't police them. That's going to be one of the new jobs that are created by AI. Now, speaking of nonsense, and actually to the point that everyone's being a little too doomer-y about everything, we're in the final days of the midterm elections. The polls are very, very tight. They look pretty bad for Republicans. This could give control of the House to the Democrats, of the Senate to the Democrats. They could win the presidency in 28, pack the Supreme Court, and destroy the country before Anthropic ever can. And yet, in the waning days of the campaign, the big issue we're debating is the cheesecake factory. Here is Barack Obama. So, so. So when you go through all this, the tally of promises, things have not worked out the way we might have expected. Although, I must say, I did expect it. And, and, and let's be honest. Does anybody really think this guy in the White House right now is spending all that time thinking about these issues? I, I, I mean, I, I don't know if you've noticed, but he seems very focused on home renovations. He should be on HGTV. The guy's building a ballroom that's bigger than the White House. It's paved over the Rose Garden, put a helicopter pad on the South Lawn, and, and there's gold everywhere. What's up with the gold? Everything, more gold. He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a cheesecake factory. Now you see this Philistine Donald Trump, this man, he probably drinks an over-oaked Chardonnay with his oysters on the half shell. This man, this gauche degenerate, he, this, I don't know, the whole thing to me read very, very out of touch with stereotypical disdain, characteristic disdain for the middle class that Barack Obama has. To help us understand it, we have former White House press secretary, Sean Spicer. Sean, is this a. Is this a strong argument from the last leading Democrat in the country heading into the midterms? Absolutely. I mean, look at this, this man's artistic qualities. Go to Chicago, look at the splendor and beauty of what he has created there and understand that if you're looking for somebody to critique art and culture, he comes to mind. I mean, look at what he has created. It has transformed the Chicago. It has transformed the Chicago skyline in just an amazing way of just utter crap. And I think that when you now realize the perspective by which he judges art, it all makes sense. I will say two fascinating things, though. I did spend the night in one of Saddam's hunting lodges. One of his cheesecake factories. There wasn't an ounce of gold. It was actually pretty barren. So I'm not really sure what that critique was, and I'm not really sure that I've ever seen it. I haven't seen any gold in a cheesecake factory. So again, let's just remember who the messenger is. It is kind of weird that we're debating this. Like, the fact that the ballroom is one of the big issues, or the Democrats keep trying to dredge up Epstein, Epstein which began as a Democrat scandal after President Trump released over three million pages of Epstein files, it does make me wonder. I think the Republicans are going to do horribly in the midterms. I'm quite worried about the Democrats taking over. I recognize there are some problems in the economy and with the Iran war and everything. But. I mean, Obama's campaign and all these Democrats' campaigns, it's actually making me think that the Democrats kind of have nothing. Like what is the, what is the issue they're running on? Well, okay. So let me, let me take these things backwards. I feel like this is like the three little bears in the porch, right? House, I don't feel great about. Senate, I'm actually feeling better. Governors races, I feel really good. So if you want to look at the election, remember there's three sort of main buckets, obviously state legislatures as well. But I, I judgment that the second thing is you're absolutely right. I mean, the Democrats aren't running with an alternative, a plan. I mean, this is a midterm. They're trying to make it a referendum and no one's asking them that, right? I mean, that's, that's the beauty of being the party out of power is that you just get to say they suck and I'll be better and no one's saying, well, what, what's better mean? Like, what's that policy? What's that going to do to me? And that's one of the faults that I have with respect to the Republican messaging is we throw out taglines. We're like, well, socialism. Isn't going to work. And for most Americans these days, they don't think of socialism in the classic way that most of us think about it, whether it's Venezuela or Cuba or whatever they think about it as a, just, well, that means more government. And I just think that Republicans have failed to message the alternative well, because we've let them get away with just saying they're bad. You should choose us. And there's nothing else. I mean, resumes alone, if you look at some of these races where it's one, you know, who the Republican is and what they've done in the experiences they bring versus the Democrat, this should be a no brainer. Um, if anything, I really do believe that we have failed in the messaging front to talk about, I always say it's a three legged stool. What did you do for the voter? What will you do for the voter? And why does the other side suck? And we've done a little bit of part three and that's about it. You know, I look at the, the, the president, you know, in Michigan and there are a couple things that occur to me. He's, he's just an enormous douche bag. I mean, every time he goes out on the stump and he starts dropping the G's in his words, because he's trying to get across to the common man, he starts, he drops into this, this bizarre kind of Southern dialect. It's very strange. Um, and, and I'm sorry, ripping on the cheesecake factory, I keep kosher, but I was under the impression that ripping on the cheesecake factory, maybe just ripping on the broad taste of the American people. I'm not aware of a lot of people who are very, very anti cheesecake. And also I wasn't aware that the cheesecake factory is hideously decorated. It's not like it seems completely out of touch. Frankly, he's never been to the cheesecake factory. He goes and eats at the French laundry. This is not where, where Barack Obama has ever been, but there, there's something else happening there too, which is notice where he's campaigning. He's in Michigan. Now, the, the fact that that race is even close tells me the Democrats have troubles in Michigan. I am not firmly convinced by any stretch of the imagination that else is going to win that race. I think that outside is a horrible candidate for all the reasons they already know, including the fact that he loves terrorism. Um, but, but also. There was a poll that came out from insider advantage that shows that L side is leading Rogers with black voters, 47 to 33, 47 to 33. If he only wins 47% of the black vote, he's toast. And, and the reality of the Barack Obama has to be called in last minute to a state where a Democrat is trying to replace a Democrat that that's an open seat, but it was a democratic seat. And it's an off-year election. And Michigan is pretty purpley to begin with. And you have to call Barack Obama to Michigan. Right. And that, that says to me that that is not a secure race. And I think that, yeah, like Sean, I'm a little, I'm a little skeptical. The Democrats are quite as, as rosy in the Senate as the media seem to want them to. I think there's a really very strong oppo campaign that the legacy media are attempting to run to demoralize Republicans from getting out and voting in places like Texas and Maine and Alaska and Iowa and Michigan. But when I look at sort of the raw fundamentals of those rates, if you have the same sort of poll miss that you had in the last midterm election. Yeah. The Texans win every single one of those states and I, and so I, I I'm, I'm, I don't know. I'm, I'm a lot more optimistic about the Senate than I think I probably have any right to be given the current polling data. But I think that, I think that it's just hard for me to believe that Texans in the end are going to pull the trigger for James Tallarico. The Michiganders really want a pro-terrorism Senator and that the people of Maine want a weirdo like Troy Jackson, who frankly looks like he went to the, the, the Gacy school of clownery. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Look, here's what I'll say. First of all, I feel very bullish on Maine. Susan Collins, the latest Trafalgar poll who, and I believe Robert Cahaley and those guys do some of the best polling, um, in, in the country. And Robert has her up half a point. If Troy Jackson's not leading by about four going into election day, he's going to lose. I feel very bullish about that. I feel very bullish about, uh, Iowa. I also feel very bullish about New Hampshire and here's why again, the national media doesn't want to tell you this. So I will. Um, New Hampshire is an election day state. Okay. So what I mean by that is there is no such thing as early voting in New Hampshire. They have excuse, uh, absentee, like we used to have in Virginia where you can vote absentee, but you have to have a real legitimate reason. Um, and, and so for that reason, it's a pure get out the vote kind of state. Kelly Ayotte is running about 10 points ahead. She's the incumbent governor, Republican governor, by the way, in, in New Hampshire. And I do think that that's going to benefit, uh, John Sunino. So I will tell you, there's a lot of these races where. I feel good. I think there's going to be a lot, it's going to be a lot closer in a lot of states. Absolutely. But people are not looking at the basic fundamentals of who's returning a ballot when they're returning them. Those are things that I've spent years doing. And what happens to be honest with you is you turn on a lot of these cable stations and say Republican strategist with some dude who's never strategized with anybody. Um, a couple other quick points on the cheesecake factory. I was thinking about this as Ben was talking, think about where cheesecake factories are, right? Think about who the audience is. So there in this area, there's one in DC, downtown DC, and there's one in Bethesda. Those aren't Republican places. I would argue that if you're the chief. cake factory, you're probably really pissed that Obama just crapped on our institution that largely cabers to left-leaning people, to be honest with you. I mean, I think if you did a poll, I do love a good cheesecake factory, so don't get me wrong. But I'm saying I actually think that they're probably pissed at this when you look at the locations. Two, when you look at the message that Obama had at that Michigan rally, it was Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. He didn't mention Mike Rogers. I mean, they're literally trying to run this entire election about Donald Trump. And then third, I would correct you, Ben. El-Sayed's not a bad candidate. He's a bad person. I mean, he is literally, it's not just a bad candidate. And I do think you're right, though, that between traditional Democratic constituencies, Jews and blacks in particular, he's got a problem in Dearborn. He's got a problem with Jews. He's got a problem with blacks in Detroit. If Rogers, remember, there's three options in an election. You can vote for a Republican, you can vote for a Democrat, and you can sit it out. And I think the biggest concern that the El-Sayed campaign has to worry about is not just their folks coming over to Rogers, but a preponderance of them just not voting. And then he's really screwed. You know, also, the illogic of the legacy media is apparent, but there is illogic to your mattress shopping as well. Do you think that you can actually just get a mattress by going into a big box store, lying on a mattress for 30 seconds, fully clothed? There's some, you know, salesman staring at you the whole time. It's really awkward. 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The happy with Helix guarantee makes returns and exchanges incredibly simple. So head on over to helixsleep.com slash dailywire. Get 20% off sitewide during the fall savings event. That's helixsleep.com slash dailywire for 20% off sitewide helixsleep.com slash dailywire. Okay. Sean, you said that you, sorry, Drew. Yeah. Let me, let me just finish that. You know, while Obama has had a really spotty record as a booster, Trump hasn't. And Trump has been out there almost every day. I mean, he's, he's keeping an incredible schedule. And all I, all I keep thinking is, and this is not a prediction, but all I keep thinking is if this is a Dewey beats Truman situation where the, the sheer energy and stamina and appearance of Donald Trump, who has Michael Knowles has said, is Elvis, which is quite right there. We would not know it. We would not know. We would be just as in the dark as Dewey was if, if this was going to be a turnaround brought about by Trump's hard work and his personality, because while his popularity is low, it's not low with the people he's trying to get out, the people he's trying to get out of the MAGA people who won't show up if he's not there. And so I, I don't know this is going to happen and I'm not predicting it, but if it were about to happen, we wouldn't know it. I think if it does, I cannot wait to read. I mean, I know we all know all four of us know what the headlines will say. Like, uh, Republicans hold not as much as they could have though. Like somehow it'll be the most negative story about like these guys can make winning sounds so bad, uh, in the national media. But I guarantee you, like I said, I think the house is very precarious. I go through this every like tonight on my show, I do all the Senate races tomorrow night. I do all the house races. I definitely a little bit precarious, no question about it. Um, but I will say the Senate, I do feel more and more bullish every day because I look at the data on this. And I think if we pull this out, they're going to still say he came up short for some reason, or we won Texas, but it wasn't what it should have been. We won Iowa, but it wasn't what it should be. They'll find a way to make it negative. Don't worry. Now you mentioned Sean that, okay, you're feeling the house might be a lost cause, but the Senate is looking okay. Governor's looking great. Uh, our buddy Vivek, he's been in hot water for a while. He's been in hot water for a while. There's been all this controversy over his TV ad. Uh, is Vivek going to pull it out in Ohio, uh, or, or is acting going to win it? So here's what I'll tell you. Um, I, I did, I mean, I'm doing this for 30 years, right? And when you get to this point in a campaign, you're tracking what, so that means is you don't do like a poll of a thousand, but every night you're running about a 200 sample and you're kind of seeing what's moving the needle in the final day. So you can switch in and out your ads. What was fascinating is despite the national media and being outraged and every Republican whining and wetting their pants and saying, he's got to take this ad down and it's disgusting. They doubled down on the ad and they cut it to a 32nd ad and went further. What that tells me is that they're tracking shows that whatever demographic they're looking to move is working. So I don't know that he pulls this thing out, but for everybody who said it was a horrible ad, you don't with eight days to go seven days to go now double down on something that's not working just to spite the national media. Right? So I do believe that this thing may be close. I look, he's down. He was, he was, his RCP average is somewhere just shy of 45 right now that being vivate. So he is down a little. I do think Ohio comes home though. And that's what, when you look at the model, it's always ends this way. And the early vote starts with the Dems. Bernie Moreno had the same thing happen to him in the last cycle. JD got over the finish line with 52.5. Like it's, it just, that's how Ohio goes. The Dems get their early vote out. They're high propensity voters. And then Republicans are game day voters and they show up if they can make that turnout operation work the way it should. I think he does. This may be close like a 51 49 race, but I think they can pull this out. I certainly hope you're right. Gentlemen, do you agree? I mean, I think that, yeah, I mean, I listen, I think that the vague has been running, you know, a very, very tight race this entire time. Um, the Ohio has been surprisingly tight, despite the fact that, that, you know, Mike DeWine walked away with it because the truth is that Ohio is, it is bright red for certain types of Republicans, but it's not kind of bright red across the board in the way that say Tennessee is bright red across the board. Uh, so it's been kind of fascinating to watch that race. My big comment that got a lot of flack about the vague ad is that, well, I don't like the ad. I think that, you know, obviously Amy Acton's personal childhood story is pretty, pretty rough. And all the questions about the mom seemed to be well justified. And the, the, the sort of crocodile, tears that many of the people in the media are shutting about this ad are totally discom, they're just disproportionate to, to the sort of reaction they would have to any other political ad. I mean, president Trump is right that if somebody had cut this ad featuring one of his siblings, which, you know, Mary Trump literally campaigned against him, uh, or if there had been, you know, a gigantic, say wave of Kennedy's coming out against RFK and, and making similar accusations, even with a similar childhood story, I think the media would have basically done nothing about it. And, and actually you saw this happen the same week, the same week that this, the vague ad came out that the entire media was going insane over. There was this attempted hit on Lindsey Graham, who is dead, who's a dead person using male hookers from the young Turks. And they put this out and pretty much the entire democratic establishment either just kept silent and said nothing about it or kind of chortled about it or champion the thing. And it wasn't even an attack on Lindsey who is dead. It was an attack on Lindsey Graham's sister. It was an attack on Darlene who's running for Senate in South Carolina. And again, the same people who were just appalled and aghast at the vague ad for its deep and abiding immorality had nothing to say about this. And so I think two things can be true once as always. I don't like the vague ad. I think that it's, I think that I wish that he had run an ad about her dishonesty without using her mom. Um, but at the same time, like the, the, the sort of second order outrage, which became the narrative, right? It was really about how outrageous the, no one has ever done it. Oh, it's so terrible. I'm not going to take that from the same people who are sitting along and cheering at smears thrown against the corpse of Lindsey Graham. After he was capable of answering them because he's dead designed to sink his sister in a South Carolina race. I mean, that's the part that's absurd to me. My conspiracy theory that I'm entertaining now after watching the young Turk stock, I think there's a chance that Lindsey Graham might not have been a homosexual. And I know that's shocking and it's going to offend everyone on both sides of the aisle. I don't, the guy was in public life forever. I get he was unmarried. He had, you know, he was, had some dandyish propensities, but I don't know. I think that's the best they got is a hand. Male hookers after the guy was dead. First of all, you know what a hooker is, right? They do anything for money. So I actually was not persuaded by that. I don't think it didn't knock Darlene Graham at all. I don't think it even really laid much of a glove on Lindsey Graham. Most people thought he was gay anyway, and they didn't really care all that much. Uh, I don't know. I I'm with you, Ben. I just feel like in the Ohio race. Yeah. Okay. You can hate the ad. You can like the ad. You can think it was justified. You can think whatever, you know, the, the race is about government, right? It's about like the common good and policies and the people of Ohio. And I just think it's so obvious. You can either elect the COVID czar who has, who does have a massively dysfunctional, uh, personal life and lies a lot and does refuses to debate. And you can, okay, you can, you can vote for her, even if she had bad things and sad experiences in her life and all sorts of trauma, you can either vote for her or you can vote for the guy who is a normal, wants to protect your civil liberties, wants to let you keep your property, wants to defend the American nation. I don't know. This is not a hard choice for me. I actually think it's, it's even deeper than that, but I will say I take it further than this whole which is nobody on the left seems to care about the names they throw around about Trump and his supporters. So, you know, racist, monogamous, everyone's Hitler, Nazi, etc. And yet no one seems to think that's beyond the pale. But Vivek runs an ad that says she's a liar. And oh, my gosh, everybody needs to denounce this. That's number one. Number two, to your point, like the number one issue in all of these races is the economy. And you're running to be the chief executive of Ohio. Vivek Ramaswamy's resume and work experience blows her away. So what I would rather have seen him done is to say, listen, I know how to create jobs. I know how to run businesses effectively and profitably. I can bring those skills. She is a complete nut job. And this is what she'll do to Ohio. I think that's a much more compelling ad at the end. So, again, whether you like the ad or not, I just go down to in the last seven days, what's actually going to move the needle. And I got to believe that issue after issue, poll after poll, data point after data point that I see says that right now people are like, who is going to make my life better and more affordable? Now, Sean, before I let you go, we'll move on from 26 to 28. You just recently sat down with our friend, the vice president of the United States, a man I greatly admire and who clearly is eyeing the White House, even though he did say publicly that he would defer any speculation on whether or not he will run until after the election. And I think that's a great thing to do. And I think he's sincere about that, because if the Democrats get totally blown out of the water and then it's just a subpoena fest for the next two years, J.D. is a very young man. He could wait a cycle or two cycles. And actually, it might make sense for him to wait. Nevertheless, he's the heir apparent right now. What would you take away from the interview? How do you think things are looking for 28? Look, it's his to give up. And what I mean by that is he's chair of the finance committee at that would be just unparalleled to any other candidate. He's got at least the infrastructure, the campaign of Donald Trump that again, it's like starting on the 50 yard line against everybody else. It's just not fair. So if he runs, it's his to have. I actually thought the more intriguing question that I asked him was if given the choice between Donald Trump endorsing you, which would be the equivalent of a coronation or you winning a primary where everyone got to run against you, which would you choose? And I said to him, just be hypothetical about this. Don't make it about J.D. Vance. What's the better thing for the party? And he said, well, you know, I don't know. And I said, well, look, I think of it as a coronation the way it did with Harris. I don't know that that's you need to have the grassroots of the people feel like you earned it, that you're their choice. If Donald Trump says you're the guy, it's you become the guy. And then I don't think it helps you or any nominee for that matter. And I think that, frankly, Donald Trump would like to see a little bit of apprentice style season, someone earning that. I will be honest with you, Michael, I saw one of Ben's recent videos. I thought you were going to bring up the big Dancing with the Stars controversy. And that's why I was brought on, because Ben was asked about this in a video the other day. He really wasn't sure. And I thought, OK, I'm here to shed some light on the massive controversy that has surrounded Dancing with the Stars the last couple of weeks. But tonight is going to be the return of Valtromoski to the dance floor. I know that this is something you guys will bring up. Mr. Man on this, I'm sure. But I'm just telling you, this is something that I wish The Daily Wire would have spent a little bit more time on. My producers are literally cheering for you mentioning this in the other room. I'm sure they are driving me insane. Yeah, look, one of the pieces that look as a former quarterfinalist, I believe that I could have added a lot of perspective and insight into what a lift is in ballroom dancing and whether or not that qualified. So feel free to text me next to me. Just say, hey, I need to figure this out. Yeah, Sean, but I guess this is probably more important than 26 or 28. Do you have any predictions on like how many pas de bourree we'll see in this season of Dancing with the Stars or how many? I don't know, dips or splits. Well, the dips are going to happen all the time, Michael, as you may know. That's but when we get to the freestyle, which is towards the end, the semifinals and finals, that's when I'm going to really that's when dancers really can show their true self, which is why I think I was eliminated well for that. No one. Everyone knew that I had no rhythm or any creative talents that. Yeah, that's that's unfortunate. I, like Steve Martin, was born a poor black child. So I'd like the opportunity at some point to show off my rhythm. No one's invited me. Now, if you want to keep up on this very, very important news, Dancing with the Stars chief among it. We've got one week until the election. You need to check out DailyWire.com for our election hub where you can see absurdly detailed data on the polls. And predictions for every single midterm race. Even better, you can get into the action yourself. That is right. You can check it out on the midterms pick'em game where you can pick the winner of the top 100 battleground races gets even better because there will be prizes up to 20 of them for the smartest or luckiest of our players. Go check it out at DailyWire.com. Gentlemen, have you filled out your maps yet? Well, you're not going to win the prize because that's a big silent no. And you're not going to and I'm going to get the prizes all to myself. That's going to be very exciting. Can we, Sean, can we keep you around just for a little bit of the Kalshi time game? It's going to, if you look at the rider, that's just as long as you're willing to pay that fee. Yeah, no, I will send it. Please send a bill to Benjamin Shapiro. Just send the invoice right over there. Before we get into it though, when your work truck dies, three to five business days is not a business plan. Your crew needs to work. Your customers want the job finished. Neither is particularly interested in your bank or your business plan. So, if you're paperwork, can't have that. You know, listen, I know I do this media stuff, but I really consider myself more of a businessman. I'm a cigar salesman with, you know, a couple other extra hobbies. And when, when the business needs some financing, you can't wait on the big banks. Patience is a virtue, but it will not replace your truck. That's where Cardiff comes in. Apply online in minutes. No impact your personal credit to view your offers. Qualified businesses can get approved in minutes for up to $500,000 funding as soon as the same day. Cardiff has funded more than 12 billion dollars to American businesses over the past two decades. If you've been in business for at least one year and you're doing at least $20,000 a month in revenue, go to Cardiff.co slash Knowles, K-N-O-W-L-A-S, Cardiff.co slash Knowles. Real growth, fast funding, Cardiff, borrow better. Okay, this is a lightning round of Cal Shee time. Sean, would you mind, in that rider, can we make you a producer on this show too? No, this is a very relevant question. Who's going to be his next press secretary? Anna Kelly. You want me to do this? Am I running the whole damn thing? Please run it, run it. The big question right now is who's next, Trump's next press secretary. We've got Anna Kelly at 20%. Scott Jennings coming in the rear at eight. Daniel Alvarez at five. Nicki Minaj at four. Wow. I would have just out of, I'm still a little upset. Obviously everyone knows I'm very happy doing one, but I'd like to come in three percent just for old time's sake. Of these picks, I don't think it's going to be Scott. Scott's very talented. He does a great job defending the president. People keep bringing him up as he's going to be the shoo-in. I don't see it. I think it's going to be a girl. I think it's going to be like a nice, pleasant, articulate girl. So yeah, I'm kind of on the Anna Kelly bet. Gentlemen? I mean, first of all, we have to reserve, we have to make sure, Michael's only going to be press secretary for JD. I mean, we know this already. But I want secretary of state. Oh God. Because then I can run Cuba and I'll make more cigars. Sorry. Go on. Don't force me out of the JD camp this quickly. I'll give you like five other positions in the administration. Secretary of state is not the one. Ambassador to the Vatican is definitely there. But as far as, yeah, I mean, listen, Scott has a couple of things that are not going for him. One, he's male and two, he's not blonde. And so those two things I think cut heavily against Scott, who would definitely be the best of these people. So yeah, I would be saying if there's a calci market, no on Scott Jennings. I would probably say no on Scott Jennings. I don't know where you're at on this, Drew. Well, I want you to know that I did pitch Michael Knowles to my sources within the administration who mostly, you know, clean toilets and empty ashtrays. But still, you were roundly rejected as being just a little bit too fascist. So I feared I wasn't fascist enough. All right. I got to- Now I've got to rethink my old strategy. But Scott Jennings, I think, is having too much fun doing what he's doing. It's a tough job. I mean, you know, Sean used to be six foot four and, you know, it just takes you, it takes it out of you, you know? So I think that Scott would be a fool to do it. I think Anna Kelly too. That's got to be the obvious one. Yeah, I would say Anna Kelly is starting to become, look, I don't think they're in any hurry. I'll say that. I think Stephen Chung, who's the contractor, has been kind of running the entire shop. They've got a strong bench of deputies and assistant press secretaries. I got to tell you, I wouldn't be surprised to see somebody outside the box on this. And what I mean by that is there's somebody who has played a significant role on television before, something like that, a Tony Snow type. Obviously, odds are that they end up having been from Fox News. There's the one thing I'll say just on a personal level is everybody focuses on the briefing. Here There's what it's going to take. That's 20% of the job, right? There is 80% of that job. That is coordination, being in key meetings about policy rollouts and policy impacts, sitting down with agencies and department heads about specific issues that are dealing with them, coordination, managing the staff. And I think sometimes we see just the focus on, OK, what is it going to take to go out and do the briefing? And if you don't understand the stakeholders, Congress, obviously the White House press corps, outside stakeholders, the other departments and agencies, I think it's going to be hard to succeed. If you think about, you know, even the first term, it was largely people who had an understanding of those different aspects of the job. And I would hope that they learn from the last. I think Katie is a very nice person. But but if you think about what that job entails, it's not just about going on television or giving a briefing. That's a good point. You know, it's you are running. I mean, obviously there's communications director of the White House, but you are the face of and you are largely running communications. For the administration. So most of that job is not glamorous. Frankly, the presidential the press briefing every day is not all that glamorous either, but sometimes it can be. The rest of it, though, is working the press, working the agencies, working, working Capitol Hill. So, yeah, I agree. And the idea I did think about the Tony Snow president because Tony Snow was a great press secretary. And there is something to the skill of being able to communicate if you've worked on campaigns, if you've worked on TV or podcasts or whatever. That's very important. But there is also something to the Farm League and kind of growing it up from within the administration. Having some of these deputies on top of that, by the way, we're heading into the midterms. There are no rush to name somebody. And even after that, this administration, whether you love it or hate it, is extraordinarily transparent. Trump is picking up the phone for reporters all the time. And there's he's giving these gaggles all the time. And you've got all really all sorts of cabinet secretaries doing that. So there's no rush to have a point person who is the official mouthpiece. For the administration in a world in which you've got Donald Trump, who is constantly directly communicating to the American people. Yeah. Well, the key thing that you noted when you look at Tony and frankly, this is the piece of advice that every press secretary gave me when I took the job was have a strong deputy. So Dana Perino was Tony's deputy. She had worked in the White House. She had worked on Capitol Hill. She knew her way around the block. Because when you're a press secretary, your time is getting pulled in eight different directions. You need a deputy that can coordinate. You need a deputy that can coordinate all of the various different elements and issues that are happening below to make sure that whether it's a department that's doing something, whether it's a media outlet that's looking for a quote or that they're looking for an interview with the president. So having a strong bench, to your point, Michael, is critical when it looks to this. And that's one of the things that this White House needs to build up is you've seen them now push out Anna Kelly, Benny Ray Harmony, all these other folks, Olivia Wales. They're getting out there and they're getting their reps. And that's the key is it's when you've done this for a living, you suddenly get thrust into the major leagues when you go to the White House. And I think what's been really smart in the last couple of months is that they're taking all these assistant press secretaries and the deputies, getting them out there and getting them some time in front of the press, in front of the camera so that they are building that bench. OK, will Sam Alito announce his retirement? Cal Shiad's before this January 1st, 21 percent before April 1st, 22 percent. Before July 1st, 56 percent. Before October 1st, 2027, 50 percent. OK, it goes down after July. I don't think Sam Alito is retiring. Am I crazy about that? I think that it's entirely dependent on whether the Republicans maintain the Senate. So if the Republicans do not maintain the Senate, then he is absolutely not retiring. And you should take the under on all of those. If the Republicans retain the Senate, I think that he probably will retire before July 1st. Because that would give him enough time for them to come up with a replacement, go through the hearings. It'll be just knock down, drag out brutal. So this is it's sort of a weird proxy question for who's going to control the Senate after after November. I think the Republicans are going to control the Senate. So I would probably be on the before July 20, July 1st, 2027 bandwagon. But this is a binary question. If they if they control the Senate before July 1, I think is right. If they don't control the Senate, then never. I think that for the next 50 years, Sam Alito is on the bench. I don't know. I agree with most of your assessment. I do wonder if if the Republicans were to lose the Senate, Alito is very, very cognizant of his legacy. And the question that you have to ask yourself is, OK, it would be two years to get the Senate back. And then you're gambling that Republicans keep the White House so that you would get a nominee that would be in your liking. I have a decent feeling that if Republicans were to lose the Senate and again, I don't think that's going to happen. I would take the before before I guess the end of the year, because I think Alito says I need to make sure somebody is nominated in the lame duck section that I feel confident will replace me. Oh, the Democrats will stop that. The Democrats will just do McConnell. No, no way. The Democrats will stop that. I don't think that John Thune has the gas. I know John Thune is a McConnell protege, but I'm not sure John Thune has the gas to do what Mitch McConnell would do in that situation. The guy strikes me as a potted plant. He hasn't been able to move on anything. I just don't know if he could actually get a new nominee over the over the. No, I think he would. I mean, I think that's that's that's a little unfair to Thune. I mean, in the sense that one of the big wins of the Trump administration has been the continued verification of just judges across the federal judiciary. Like that, that is a thing that has continued to pace across the first year and a half of the two years of the Trump administration, part two. So the real question, and I think this is the one for Sean, is. And let's say that a lead over to step down in twenty seven. I think the Democrats would hold that seat open all the way until twenty twenty nine. I think that they have given McConnell's with Merrick Garland. Right. So so here that this is why I believe the following. If Republicans maintain the majority, he stays. He feels good. He can make his easy at least got two years and will reflect on whatever he wants. If he doesn't feel confident, if Republicans were to lose and he knows I can't, there won't be a replacement while I can guarantee a Republican president. It would nominate somebody. I think there's going to be a lot of pressure to get him done. And I don't think that it doesn't matter. In my opinion, Thune's going to feel more pressure than anything to get somebody over the finish line before the lame duck session in January twenty twenty seven. So Alito would be pressured, would make a decision. They'd nominate somebody and say, we got to jam this guy through kind of like Amy Coney Barrett. So I I believe that's how it works. If they keep the majority, he's going to just put more, you know, pitchers up in the office in his chambers. So, Sean, yeah. In other words, you're saying it's not that. Yeah. You know, OK, he'll retire into the Democrat led Senate. You're saying, no, no, no. Day after the election, Sam Alito's out. They're moving. You know, this thing's wrapped up by Christmas. That's an interesting prediction. This this might be the first time in the history of this company that I am on the pessimistic side of a question. And Ben Shapiro is on the optimistic side. I I don't I'm not I don't even want to say it. I don't even want to put it out there into the ether. I'm not betting on Republicans holding the Senate. I guess I'm the only one. I'm the only one on this show right now who I guess I feel the worst about our chances in the Senate. Yeah. I mean, again, I see why you feel that way. The thing that I just keep coming back to is the president is running like a 30 percent approval rating. But every one of these Senate races is competitive. Yeah. And so in a normal environment, you would imagine that this would not even be a close run thing. We just be getting clocked in every one of these states. And so because we're not I mean, like, I don't understand how you can have basically an even race in Minnesota, but also an even race in Texas is Clay Travis's point. And that's that that's the thing that is getting me. Like, how is it that Michelle Tafoya is running basically neck and neck in Minnesota? And somehow James Tallarico is also running neck and neck in Texas. Are these are these part? I guess maybe these states are not part of the same country anymore in a certain sense. But it's but it's definitely an oddity of the polling. And so I think that it will break one way or another, but which is a truism. But I'm I'm a little hard pressed to to see how Republicans. You know, blow all of these races all at once. I don't think they'll lose Iowa. I don't think they're going to lose Alaska. I don't think they're going to lose Maine. So I think that really, I guess it comes down to Texas, I suppose. And one of the things that apparently, according to the Cal sheet markets, they're sort of in state Cal sheet markets. And then there's like the broader Cal sheet markets. And one of the things that I was talking to one of the founders of Cal sheet yesterday. And one of the things he was saying to me is that the data that they have shows that the Cal sheet market in Texas itself, like for people who are living in Texas, they believe Paxton is going to win. It's a lot of California, New York money saying that Paxton is going to lose in Texas. That makes it look. I just like optimistic, Ben. I'll take it. Whatever that's, you know, that's worth the price of admission right there. There's one left before I let you all go. There's one last Cal sheet question. The best picture winner this year. And these actually, I was going to make a joke about how no one saw any of these movies, but some people actually did see these movies. The Odyssey is right now at 52%. You can see everything at 23%. The Black Ball at 14%. Part three at 8%. I only saw one of those movies, but I do want to see the Elizabeth Holmes psycho movie. The Odyssey was like fine. I know there was a, there was wide disagreement over the Odyssey. Ben said it was the greatest film ever made. Matt said that it was a sin to go watch it. I know there was some, some of a spread. I thought it was like pretty good or whatever. Is it going to be the Odyssey? Yes. I think it'll be the Odyssey. By the way, what is the Black Ball? I've never even heard of it. I've never heard of this. I've heard of three of those movies. Yeah, I don't even know what that is. So that must be one of the. I've got to be honest with you. I've heard of the, I haven't seen any of the four. I've heard of the Odyssey. I didn't even know that if you had told me the other three were like new cars coming out, I'd believe you. I don't, I've never, I didn't even know that those were movies. Is it going to be a sleeper though for you can see everything? That's the movie about Elizabeth Holmes and she invites this kind of interesting. Oh, that's the Theranos one. Yeah, the Theranos movie. I could see that as a sleeper running away with it. Probably not, but I could, I could sort of see it. And also will Ellen Page get best actor? Oh my goodness. Can I just be straight with you guys? I think I've now spent more time talking about the Oscars than I have in 10 years. I mean, like I really, there's a reason I don't see these movies. I just don't really care. It's not where I spend, want to spend my time. And I really don't care what Hollywood thinks about anything. Also where in the calci market is run, hide, fight infidels? Is that, I don't understand why that's not, it would be, cause I know there's a, there's also a similar themes in there. In the Odyssey, you can see a transgender woman winning the Trojan war and in run, hide, fight infidels, you can see a jihadi kick a homosexual off of a rooftop. So there are similar, kind of similar theme, leitmotif and, but anyway, it's not coming up in the prediction markets. Maybe that's a real sleeper. I agree. I think it's probably the Odyssey. Sad. It's weak. I'm with you, Sean. I haven't paid attention to these movies in years. Okay. Is there any other pressing issue beyond dancing with the stars, looks maxing and stupid Hollywood movies? Any other really pressing issue for us? Yes. What? I have a pressing issue. Today is the publication of my book, Find Me Nowhere. And it was presidentially approved. Donald Trump himself said you should go out and buy it. That has the force of an executive order. So if you don't go out and buy it, you're violating the law. I will be at one of the great, great crime stores, crime bookstores in the country tomorrow at seven o'clock, Poison Pen, right outside of Phoenix in Scottsdale. It is a great store. And I would love to see these, these events. I never used to do them, but they become such a terrific events. I talk to people and they tell me, you know, they tell me what's on their mind. It's really been a joy. So come on out and buy a copy of Find Me Nowhere at Poison Pen in Scottsdale. And if you're not going to be there, buy it on Amazon, I promise, or the Daily Wire shop. I promise you will like it. Also, Drew, I just want to congratulate you. You know, after, after having written something like 750 books over the years, I'm glad you could join the ranks of us authors who have received the president Trump endorsement for our mag, magna opi. Now in your case, you had to go through the trouble of putting words in your book. Obviously I did not in my case, but I'm just glad we, we are two of president Trump's favorite authors. I know. No, forget about Sean. No, forget it. Hold on. Forget about Sean for a second. Hold on. And, and, you know, guys like Ben and Matt Walsh is just going to have to, you know, soothe themselves with drugs and alcohol. No, I know here. Hey, who am I? Who am I? Ready? Who am I? I'm Ben writing all those words for nothing. I'm just going to, I'm just going to, I'm just going to put it out there, Drew. The chances that president Trump read Michael's book are 97,000 times better than the chances that he actually read your entire book. Right. No, he was, he was studying brothers Karamazov to get at the soul of the Russian people and tore himself away. I loved seeing it though. That was such a great post. It was great. It was, it was, it was cool. And then I remember, you know, it was so funny too, because I remember when it, when it happened for my joke book, it was because I was just on TV. I was, and I mentioned that Trump had done something good in foreign policy and he was just watching it, you know, and that was how it happened. And then I wondered for years, I said, was this some plan at the white house? Were there, were publicists involved asking some under department secretary or whatever? And like, no, I think he was probably just watching you on TV and he liked what you had to say. I, I, I hope at least, at least then he got some of my words. That's great. Love it. Okay. So go out. If you're, if you're by the bookstore, go do it, go to the event. If not, just go buy the book. Find me nowhere by the presidentially mandated author, Andrew Klavan, or you will be prosecuted and deported. Uh, Sean, excellent to see you. Is there anything we can plug for you other than your show? Well, that's big. I mean, you always go to Sean Spicer.com sign up for the, uh, for the newsletter, but yeah, I big show tonight. We'll do the Senate and then tomorrow the house. So just go to YouTube, Sean Spicer, watch it. And, uh, like I said, we literally go through every race. So this isn't like, you know, part of it, what I love is taking the time and go, okay, where is this race? What's the early vote? What's this? So if you're really interested in the midterms, check it out tonight at six o'clock. It streams on YouTube. All right, go get it. Because, you know, I find in political commentary, the one thing that's usually lacking is any talk about actual elections and races. It's just about a bunch of things like that. So anyway, if you want to know like the facts of what's actually happening, go check out Sean show tonight. Wonderful to see all of you gentlemen. See you in the Gulag when the Democrats win the whole government. See ya. They lean on fear and try to frighten you into calling tax relief advocates does things differently. They're 5,000, 50,000 or 500,000. TRA offers an actual solution. Do not lose hope. So do not delay. Visit TRA.com. Call 800-575-4908. That is once more 800-575-4908. Well, some races draw attention. Others become the race everyone watches. In Texas, James Tallarico and Ken Paxton are facing off in one of Calchi's most traded midterm markets. Follow the race in real time on Calchi and then trade on the candidate you think is going to win. Each correct contract is worth $1 at settlement. Don't just follow the midterms. Trade what happens next on Calchi. Use code daily, D-A-I-L-Y, to get up to $25 when you trade $25. That's Calchi, K-A-L-S-H-I, Calchi. Trade on anything. 18-plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Calchi products are not available in all jurisdictions. For more information, see calchi.com slash regulatory. Tori.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Tax Relief Advocates (TRA) offers real solutions to reduce or eliminate IRS debt without fear, backed by hundreds of five-star reviews.
  2. TRA provides substantial tax relief programs that can give individuals and businesses a fresh financial start.
  3. Kalsha enables users to trade event contracts on political races like the Michigan Midterm, with real-time market data and a $25 bonus using code DAILY.
  4. The Israeli election is dominated by internal political dynamics rather than October 7th, with no true new leadership and deep divisions over military draft and coalition politics.
  5. The United States midterm races are unusually tight, with key states like Michigan, Ohio, and New Hampshire showing volatile outcomes and voter turnout concerns.
  6. Political messaging struggles to resonate, with Democrats lacking a clear alternative policy vision and Republicans relying on vague slogans.
  7. The media often overreacts to political ads, as seen in the backlash over the Vance ad, while similar attacks on other candidates go unchallenged.
  8. AI and language evolution are discussed, with "maxing" gaining traction, and concerns about AI misuse, but experts emphasize that AI is a tool, not a threat, and overblown doomer narratives are common.

Summary:

The transcript covers a range of topics, from tax relief advocacy to political analysis and cultural trends. Tax Relief Advocates (TRA) presents itself as a trustworthy solution for IRS debt, emphasizing real, actionable relief over fear-based advertising, and highlights its strong customer reviews and credibility. Meanwhile, Kalsha introduces a live market for political betting, allowing users to trade on election outcomes with real-time data and a promotional code for a $25 bonus.

In Israel, the upcoming election is framed as a political stalemate, with no new leadership and deep divisions over military draft and coalition strategy, leading to potential minority or unity governments. S. midterms, polling shows tight races, especially in Michigan and Ohio, where voter turnout and demographics play critical roles.

Political messaging is criticized for lacking substance, with Democrats failing to present a viable alternative to the status quo. Media reactions to political ads—like the Vance ad—are seen as disproportionate and inconsistent, suggesting a bias in political outrage. The discussion also touches on linguistic trends, noting the rise of "maxing" as a new slang, and a broader skepticism of doomer narratives around AI, with experts arguing that AI is a tool with real-world benefits but also risks that are overstated.

Overall, the content blends practical advice, political insight, and cultural commentary, underscoring the complexity of modern elections and public discourse.

FAQs

Tax Relief Advocates (TRA) offers real solutions to help individuals and businesses reduce or eliminate IRS debts, regardless of the amount owed. They focus on providing actual tax relief programs instead of relying on fear-based tactics.

Yes, TRA has earned over 1,000 five-star Google reviews and an A-plus rating from the Better Business Bureau, indicating strong customer satisfaction and trust.

You can visit TRA.com or call their dedicated hotline at 800-575-4908 to speak with a representative and discuss your specific tax situation.

Kalsha is a live market platform that tracks political races in real time by analyzing trader responses to new information. You can follow races like the Michigan Midterm and trade event contracts on outcomes.

Yes, event contracts involve risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The platform is not available in all jurisdictions, and outcomes are subject to market fluctuations and volatility.

The election reflects deep political divisions, with many voters concerned about leadership accountability and policy, especially regarding security and the role of ultra-orthodox groups in governance.

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