Friday Preview - NFL Week 5

>> Everybody, welcome back to the podcast feed for the first time of the season streaming live here on X. We'll see how this goes. I think it looks relatively pleasant, but if you are able to comment, which I don't know if you actually are, you can leave a comment down below and I'll get to it. I've got my phone on the sides. We'll see how that ends up going, but in this episode, I will talk through every game on the board. We'll go down, talk about the points, breads, the totals, the moves, anything that has changed. My thoughts on teams, matchups, anything, the usual Friday pod, as you're expected. Yeah, I can see the comments. So that's fantastic. I have to turn my head. We'll figure it out. If you want to reply to the video, we can do that as well, but this is the Friday pod. So let's get going. First game on the board, Philadelphia, on the road at the Jacksonville Jags from two and a half on the look ahead, up to seven and a half, currently 45 and a half is the total. All the way down to 42 shaded under. I read somewhere earlier this morning, this is the biggest move in a neutral field game. I believe it was also any game without a QB injury for the opposing team in terms of value that the line has moved and crossed. So it goes through three, goes through seven massive adjustment from where we were. And this was like from watching the board talking to other groups, hearing things. It was like buys everywhere up along this way in favor of Jacksonville. I mean, there's been no resistance for Philly whatsoever. And I mean, rightfully so, when you think about the offensive line changes, the injuries at the skill positions, Jonathan Grinard still questionable the way that the Eagles have handled this travel. I've seen pros on the missed the playoffs. I've seen pros on the win total under have seen pros elsewhere in the division. I mean, it's been just all Jacksonville money because of all the issues in Philly. And I think to back earlier in the season Philly, maybe the Tennessee game went earlier had a ridiculously successful game on third down that saved them. And then we've seen that come crashing down that game against the Rams less than a hundred yards. They're up two scores was just a bizarre game for how that played. There hasn't been a lot of intrigue excitement, difference making from Sean Manion, but then also his offense has been severely limited by some of these injuries. And so I just I don't think there's a lot of upside there whatsoever. And I do wonder just to stick up a little bit more. I got kind of feels yes, looking at the board. I just don't know what's going to get anybody interested in Philly with all of these injuries. I do think within the market we're going to see a willingness to fade Jacksonville. And I'm not saying this because I'm disgruntled from backing Cincinnati last week. But this is a team that continuously finds ways to get massive wins on the scoreboard. But within the yards per play, within the net success rate, a lot of numbers not aligning with how big some of these wins are for Jacksonville. And another thing that stands out TA had a good post about it last week. They just continue to face teams with bad QB situations below average QBs. And it's really slanting in favor of their strength of schedule. Now I know Jags fans don't want to hear this. I said this in immediate spot last week and got killed for it. Again, rightfully so lost the bet. But any time that you see a team like this that's on a run like the Jags are since Cohen took over and there are these underlying numbers that are very misleading. And you think last week, even with Burl being healthy the whole game, it was still a game where the Jags ended up facing a team down wide receiver one and two. Like within this run that Cohen's been on with the Jags, there's just been a lot of noise, a lot of favorable scheduling. And so this week falls in that same category. They're in London for back to back weeks. If Houston gets right and wins their game comfortably with Ryan's taking back play calling, I'll talk about that in a second. And then this game next week for Jacksonville against Houston, possibly with Tank Delback, that becomes a really interesting handicap. And so really not a lot that I could say or add here, obviously if you were running out early in the week, you got Jags, but you're sitting pretty good. Not something that I sent out or did anything with Tuesday onward. And so it's kind of a stay away at this point. Obviously, if you can play teasers, plenty of teaser options with Jacksonville at this point to kind of do whatever you want with. If you have comments as you're watching, drop them in. I actually can't see them. So this is great. If you do have anything, drop it in the chat. If anyone's actually watching the live stream, let me know if the mic is on too. I'm going to download and publish this afterwards on the podcast feed on Apple's Spotify. But if it does sound like it's coming from the mic and not from the phone over here, let me know just to give me some peace of mind as we go through this. Moving on to the full Sunday card, India on the road at Pittsburgh, I think toughest handicap on the board was really not impressed with India at all in their win against Washington. They couldn't get the run going against that Washington defense. And that was partly Washington's run defense playing. I think a lot better than expected. But also, I just ever since Pierce went down a couple of weeks ago, this offense has looked really restricted, really tight, not a lot of explosive plays. I don't believe Daniel Jones is 100%. I think he's suffering through some issues. And if it's not a massive Taylor game, it just doesn't look like an above average offense at the moment. Now as much issues as I've had trying to figure out this unit for Indy, I think I would say the exact same for both sides of the ball for Pittsburgh week one, it was a Pittsburgh offense that was going out and having just all out downfield passing attack. Aaron Rodgers in that week one game had his highest intended air yards was continuously pushing it 20 plus yards downfield, like just a completely different offense, full reversion the next week. And then a complete flip back in week three and a week four, they go out, make a ton of mistakes, and then they're losing to the Browns. And it's just, it's a really, really hard team for me to figure out what they're going to get on offense. And then defensively, it's the highest paid defense in football, but they have now dropped below 23rd in success rate aloud, giving up a lot of big plays, made life pretty easy for Deshan Watson. And so as much issues as I have trying to figure out what I'm looking like from the Colts perspective, I would say I have the exact same difficulty trying to figure out what we're going to get from a Steelers perspective. And so two, just really difficult teams to try to figure out. I have seen under money from one group specifically that came in on this game. That was at like 44, 44 and a half part of me. Again, like off of the loss for Pittsburgh on Thursday night football, indie not looking overly impressive coming back from London, Steelers and a bit of a bounce back. I like that idea from a side perspective, but I haven't played it because I genuinely don't know what we're getting from the Steelers team on a week to week basis. I just, there's been glimpses that have looked great and then other times it's just been a mess. And so I haven't been able to play anything. I think the two and a halfs will go to three. I think just because of those results last week and how nice of a kind of traditional handicapping spot it is, I do think we see the two and a halfs get taken out, but I don't think I will be betting the Steelers. Another one that's really tough to figure out. There's some much more clear cut matchups going down the board, but many on the road at New Orleans, this open Minnesota minus one is now up to minus two and a half. The total has been just smashed to the under, 46 and a half on the look head, reopened just slightly lower. It's down all the way to 41 and a half. I mean, it's been one way money on the under and there's some pretty clear matchup advantages that would play into that. The first being the Minnesota Vikings blitz against the Saints offensive line and Tyler Schuck, bit of a banged up offensive line. Atlanta has quietly been playing way above expectation for the past rush. They've been able to generate so far this season on Monday night, like man, they did whatever they wanted to that Saints offensive line. And Schuck really has been struggling when he's been facing the pressure and facing the blitz. Offences looked really different, said Cynthia and went down. I know he changes last name. You can call me out on that, but really took away kind of a safety valve out of the backfield, took away some run game options. I've just I thought the offense looked a lot different. And now these pressure struggles, the offensive line, getting a little bit banged up, teams able to generate quite a pass rush on the Saints. And also the Saints just not being able to get out and get leads early. You think about even last year in the games, Schuck was starting. It's just them constantly playing from behind, constantly playing catch up. And now in this matchup specifically, it's a Vikings defense under flores that blitz is a ton is able to have a ton of success getting pressure off of those blitzes. And so after seeing what Atlanta did, I mean, it's a better defense here with Minnesota. I know Atlanta, I don't believe the Atlanta's a top five defense. I think that'll come back, but I do think Minnesota in games with flores calling has that ceiling. And so I do think Minnesota's a better defense. I just wonder what the offense can look like for the Saints. I, I'm intrigued. just putting me on the spot here by Minnesota, but the offense for the Vikings really worries me. I think there was a lot of wind total money on the over. Vikings have been pretty sharp within market a few of the weeks so far this season. But I think any of these pros that have been back in the Vikings, if you ask them, the expectations of the offense has really underperformed. And I know whence obviously got a couple starts, but even with Murray with or without Jefferson, it's just never looked like I think what we were expecting to get from this offense whatsoever. And so does it show up against a bit of a banged up, saying defense of front possibly, but I just, I don't have enough confidence in that offense to go out and lay this number with the Vikings coming in off of the very, I mean, all of their winds have been relatively misleading this season when you look at them for what they are as an undefeated team. It's one of the most unlikely undefeated teams based on a lot of the box scores, a lot of the advanced box scores suggesting that they should be about a two and two team. And then you have a saying soft of a bad Monday night game. Typically creates a bit of a decent spot on the home team here to bounce back. It's just another tough game that I haven't ended up touching, but obviously a ton of under money and some Viking support. I think mainly for that matchup. Cleveland on the road at the New York Jets Jets were two and a half on the look ahead. Got down as low as one. Yesterday afternoon, what time is that about one Eastern. There was a group that came out and played the Jets. So all the one and a half's got taken out. All of the twos got taken out. It is now out to two and a half. The total ticked up a little bit, 39 and a half shaded up slightly. Initially, there was some weather concerns. Those have mostly been negated. I'm just actually looking at the Kevin's forecast right now. Rain is coming back. So I take that back. I mixed that up with with the Pat's game. I've been mixing up the Jets game of the Pat's game, weather wise mentally for for the duration of the week. And so there is there is rain in this game. He's got it labeled currently as an orange. So it'll be an impactful rain, but there's not a lot of wind. So just a sloppy game when you look at this. I think from a handicap perspective, I see this a couple of ways. First of all, Cleveland, three and one, massive surprise. And I've been involved with the Browns on a couple of weeks. So I've watched a lot of Browns football. I don't I don't really buy into a lot of the changes of what's happening. I just watch it and it doesn't feel cohesive. And I'm not watching the Browns get out and build leads and hold onto them and win games comfortably. They remind me a lot of the giants. I think to this point, like against Tampa Bay, the bucks are driving. They're at the 20 after the Browns come back in the second half. There's a four hour weather delay that strikes right at the two minute warning. Bucks end up dropping a pass in the end zone Browns escape with a win against the Panthers. It was mistakes and penalties and the O line getting dominated by a Panthers defensive front that's not overly strong for the duration of the game and Watson just doing enough in the pocket to extend some drives. And it was effectively one big drive at the end when they needed it after the Panthers came back and took a lead right at the end of the game. They get that touchdown end up going ahead and then they need two stops defensively after going three and out in between to escape with that win by narrow margin. And then against Pittsburgh, it's a long field goal late is the Steelers made mistakes all game. I just don't I just I don't watch the Browns and think okay this team is fixed. This is a three and one team. They're getting better. Watson doesn't obviously look as bad as he was last year, but I just I look at some of these numbers, some of these scorelines, how some of these games have finished, the Browns is a negative net yards per play team. I just I don't get there. My my question about the Jets is I'm very confident Aaron Glenn is is the worst coach in football. I think he's coach 32. I think he goes into every game knowing that it's a coaching mismatch, whether he mits it or not, but it's to me very evident seeing it. What's interesting about that is I think about who he in the Jets have played. And when it comes to coaching mismatches, he's at a disadvantage every game, but the way that the schedule has fell, I just have to wonder if that becomes a little bit bigger of a disadvantage. And what I mean by that is he was in the NFC North with the Lions for five seasons, four seasons, five seasons, 21 to 25. And the last three weeks for the Jets, you think about who he's played. So we had to play Matt Laflore who went against him in his defense for five seasons, twice a year. He had to play Dan Campbell who he ran his defense for several seasons while in Detroit. Campbell knows everything about him and what he wants to do and what his teams want to do. Same thing with Laflore. And then last week, it was Ben Johnson who was on the other side of him in Detroit from multiple seasons every day in practice. If there's anybody that knows what he's going to do and what his teams are going to do defensively, it's obviously him. And so this last three weeks stretch for the Jets has been Aaron Glenn going against all his former co-workers, all his former teams within the division that he had to face time after time. Like there was a ton of familiarity that worked against them that I think made some of those coaching mismatches even bigger than they should have been. And then even in week one against the Titans where the Jets looked relatively relatively good on both sides of the ball. He was going up against Robert Sela who has like seven former Jets that are tied to this team in the regime. And like there was a ton of familiarity in that game too. And so when I think about this matchup going up against Todd Munkin that familiarity factor is not there. He's going up against the coach in his first year that to this point has had his team over perform. It's a opponent that's in that same caliber of weight class if you will. And I don't think that the coaching mismatch and the coaching disadvantage is nearly as large in this game as it has been the last three weeks and you could even say all four games this season. So I think that narrows that initial disadvantage that the Jets Rad if this is like coach 32 versus coach 27 28. I don't think that's a crazy argument. And and I just wonder if this is a game where the weather gets a little bit ugly. You see Watson struggle a little bit more after playing four pretty comfortable games Jets have already had their weather game a couple weeks ago. And this is where the Jets get back to what we saw in week one relying on the run game. Even with haul out to just have a bit more of a consistent offense. Take it off of Geno shoulders and find success against the Browns defense where on the other hand the Browns really haven't had a lot of rushing success all season. My my only gripe with this and I I kid you not I've had the Jets like in the in the bed slip in the newsletter drafts. The Jets defense was on the field for 89 or 90 plays last week against the Bears and this is another TA special but for a non overtime game. It's one of the five or six highest snap counts against the defense in regulation in the last two or three decades like it was a ridiculous stat and all season long we've seen these big defensive snap counts. Most of them have been on a short week really struggled defensively. And I mean the Jets weren't just out there on the field like they were getting their their face bashed in by the run game of Chicago. And that becomes a very difficult thing in a very negative spot to try over coming in next week. There's a lot of let down angles out there against the Browns to kind of offset that that make be kind of intrigued by the Jets. But I just worry a bit that we see a bit of a no show from the Jets defense in this one. Which which gives me a little bit of pause and has just kept me off of them so far. Cincinnati on the road at Miami. There's really not a lot to say here any of the line movement so far has been entirely dependent on the two wide receivers for Cincinnati. This opened eight and a half became evident that Higgins and and Jamar Chase would be very uncertain for their status in this game as the week has progressed. It went from probably a much lower level of certainty on Wednesday to all of the Sunday. Both of them were out at practice and appear slightly better than 50-50 to play in this game. And so we've seen this number go from eight and a half down to six and a half and it is back to seven. As it sits here at seven, what I will say. The dolphins last week against the Vikings were around 11 and a half point dogs. Weekend comes in dolphins get smashed. Number comes down two and a half points Saturday money, Sunday money. It's high limits. It's a big move. It's a notable move. End up covering as Hawkins singles down at the one. Two weeks ago against the Chiefs Vikings were or the dolphins were 13-14 point dogs, maybe 12 and a half. That number got smashed. Saturday and Sunday came down. So it's been two weeks in a row where there has been considerable money on the dolphins late week that has brought the number down. this is more injury driven so far at this point. But what I think is being bet into watch the entire game against the Vikings for the dolphins, watch the entire game against the chiefs, both of those live. Like I said it on the Monday pod. I don't know how Jeff Halfley's doing it because this is a a team that's void of a lot of talent. They're the worst secondary in football. But God damn like they play so hard every snap. Like I've never seen the team this bad and this untalented if that's even a word. Every snap they're picking each other up off the ground. They're rallying to tackles. They're celebrating offensive plays when they're down 7, 14, 21. I guess it's kind of incredible to watch for a team that's this bad. And I think as as their price point gets so large that becomes possibly intriguing for a lot of pros who are watching that to bet into as such a big dog, especially at home where there's still some of this early season advantage. Some of that's narrativey. Some of it's not. I think there's something real to that. And you face a team like Cincinnati that's been wildly inconsistent on defense at times they've looked like it completely revamped units and other times they've looked like the Bengals defense we've seen the last couple of seasons. And just the way that Miami's working a bit of the ground game, it makes you wonder if if that ties into this a little bit too if some of those Bengals wide receivers are far than far less than 100%. That could certainly show what I what I bet the dolphins at six and a half know. But it is interesting when you see war at six and a half you see circa at six and a half and elsewhere on the board is seven even after the wide receiver news. I think it kind of illustrates the picture of of how this dolphins team is being viewed so far. And so interesting kind of kind of look there with the market. Total from 46 and a half down to 43 and a half. Like again, that's all driven by those wide receivers for Cincinnati. Las Vegas on the road at New England, four and a half on the look ahead, reopens three and a half. This is incredibly unfortunate. And it's kind of been the story of betting the NFL so far through four weeks. There's a lot of these games that you look at the week ahead and you'd like for it to set up a certain way. And for the most part, if there's been 15 of those so far this season, like 13 or 14 have just fell the wrong way the week prior. And what I mean by that is the Raiders end up getting the cover last week would have liked for that ending to look a little bit different. But the the Pats go out and beat the bill straight up. If that was another game where the Pats got beat up and you saw this game get adjusted down to a field goal or lower. As I look in the background, Browns is an underdog and the game picks on the TV looks like nine out of 10 picking the dog straight up who has Grant Gordon with the Jets. That's an interesting divide. Always fun to look at those. Where I was going without the Pats is like this has been three with this has been two and a half maybe. But because the Pats win, this ends up holding north of three. I look at this game and I do wonder if we start to see over money coming in now that this forecast unlike the Jets one is going to be clear. Rain sub five percent, wind just seven percent. I think about some of the matchups here. So Clint Kubiak coach of the Las Vegas Raiders has the offense looking really good, especially with Brock Bowers back. This is what Kubiak does with teams. Did it with the Saints? Did it with the Seahawks last year? He just gets these teams that are priced with lower expectations on offense to maximize things and find ways to have a lot of offensive success. And the Raiders have certainly done that so far through four weeks and now facing a Patriots defense that will be without Christian Gonzalez that will be without Carlton Davis that will be without two other defensive backs. This is a very banged up Pats defense and it's a Pats defense that's struggled to get a lot of pressure on opposing QBs and it's a Pats defense that has been very vulnerable against play action. All of this lined up. Sure makes me think that Kubiak who prepped for this Pats defense for two full weeks ahead of the Super Bowl and now sees the same scheme with a lot of the same players and a lot of the key players missing. Not only does he have an advantage in prep, I think he has an advantage in game plan within you offense and he also has an advantage against a lot of these injuries with some of these guys. So I think that's a big advantage for Kubiak in this Raiders offense. The Raiders defensively, to me this point overperformed slightly, I do start to wonder if the Pats who two weeks ago after the Steelers game going into Jacksonville, like I sent out the email labeling them as an over team just with the way that the offenses face so many tough defenses has been in so many tough matchups. We saw them unable to contribute against the Jags, albeit consistently moving the football to Drake May turning it over in the end zone on the plus side of the field and then last week we saw them against the Bill's defense that's having a ton of problems really kind of open things up and find success with a lot of banged up wide receivers. And so this Raiders defense has been a bit of an overperformed. It's not like it's a step up in class and I do think the Pats are going to be able to move the ball again and I look at this total of 45 that total against the Jags closed in a similar spot and definitely should have been an over based on that box score last week closed a little bit higher but that's a Bill's team. I just I don't know if this closes 45. I think this ends up ticking up a little bit higher now that the weather's clear just because there's a lot of pretty good advantages on both sides. Giants Washington sent out on the newsletter at Adam turnoff.com. I'm not going to get too far into this. I will say very surprised to see Diggs not playing. Mick Lauren as expected is going to likely play trending in the right direction. Jaden Daniels is in expected that to be the case. This number from two and a half got as high as four but off of the Diggs news ended up coming back half a point. Neighbors dealing with a knee issue but he was back at practice. Skataboo dealing with a shoulder injury. He was back at practice. This is a Giants team that is quite banged up. This game is going to be very ugly. Lots of weather forecasted for the duration of the game. Rain is 99% is labeled red on on Kevin's website. Wind gusting up to 27 miles per hour and so the expectation of offense is pretty low in this one. We saw the Giants play a weather game a couple weeks ago with James as the starter and the expectation of run nearly every play. It did not look good at all for the Giants offense and so we'll see if Washington comes back and gets the offense going. I don't expect it obviously to look as good as the glimpse of what we got with Daniel starting in the first half against the Cowboys indoor game. Very bad defense. Might be a little bit tougher to take advantage of the Giants secondary if there's so much wind and rain. The idea of Austin Eckler getting 20 carries is a little bit concerning but the ceiling for this offense without Marcus Marriota and with Jane Daniels in is significantly higher and I thought last week against the Colts even with the third string rookie in there probably deserved a little bit better than the scoreboard suggested and I mean this Giants team very similar to the Browns when you think about it. Like that game against Tennessee that was Cam Ward inside the 10 yard line late in the game just throws a ridiculous interception Giants walk off with the pick and end up holding on to the win. Last week against Arizona Cardinals first and goal from the three with about 40 seconds to play they go incomplete incomplete pick back to back weeks the Giants who were net minus 11% and success rate last week end up winning the game in a very misleading box score fashion with picks at the end forcing those red zone turnovers so a lot of luck going the way the Giants the last couple of weeks. Houston on the road at Tennessee theme of the week coaches were very good at coaching one side of the ball not happy with an underperforming unit taking back play calling duties officially first one here with Demiko Ryan's taking back the defense of play calling for the Houston Texans I posted it on Sunday after the Texans let the Cowboys walk down the field and do whatever they want on the final drive up 31 30 with 30 5 to play give up a 96 yard drive and drop a wide open interception and week one against the Buffalo Bills the chance for the Texans defense to get off the field and get a win they couldn't do it week three up 19 17 with a buck 48 to play give up a 40 yard drive and a game winning field goal to the Colts last week up 30 to 27 with two 15 to play give up a 74 yard touchdown drive of zero resistance against the Cowboys end up losing. The Texans are Owen 4, but it is an Owen 4 where the defense had a chance to win the game amid the offense playing without at times their top three wide receivers and the defense has not been able to get off of the field. And so you would think in a elevated spot with the season on the line, and I mean really on the line at Owen 4 against the division rival with Ryan's taking back the play calling you look at this and say that defense has got to be better. And if that defense is better. I mean the personnel is certainly there to get right. You would think Houston's going to have a pretty easy go of things against this Titans offense offensive for you. I mean, Houston's look great. All season with CJ Stroud playing in very adverse situations with with these wide receivers. So banged up he gets Nico Collins back last week. It looks great against the Cowboys defense. Should be able to move it here against Tennessee. There's been a lot of under money. A lot of that is expectation based around the improvement for the Texans defense. But that's I mean, that's what you're looking at here. Rain 30% gusts shy of 20 miles per hour. So minor weather impact. But let's see the season on the line for Houston. I'm certainly interested next week. That number for Jacksonville next week is up from two and a half on the look head at Fandall to three minus 20. A lot of that is kind of tied into just how much things have moved this week against Philly. There's going to be a lot of talk about the Jags being there for two weeks next week. It's going to be a lot of talk about likely how good the Jags offense has been. Let's see what Ryan's does with his defense. If it gets right, I think it's safe. Houston's probably the best on 14. We've seen in football in a very, very long time. If not ever, just based on the personnel that's out there. Example number two that we're seeing is Denver on the road at the Chargers, Sean Payton, officially taking back offensive play calling for the Broncos. Davis web downgraded to looking ahead for planning the game on a weekly basis. Lots of check downs last week. Lots of short passes. Lots of just inconsistency from Bonix. What I would say was most surprising to me last week was that the Broncos in the first half against a Niners defense down six defensive lineman, down their best pass fresher, elect to throw the ball 20 plus times rather than getting things working on the ground. And so that was pretty surprising for me. I think that play calling in that distribution gets rectified. I think Payton, as we've seen, certainly a much better play calling. We see that desperation going in the week five. I mean, making it official now, even though I think it was happening behind the scenes a little bit, certainly in the same way that I'm sort of expecting the Texan defense to look a lot better. I would expect the Broncos offense to look a lot better. Chargers defensively just banged up. I mean, this Chargers team, the old line is a disaster, five new starting lineman compared to what the expectation was just four weeks ago. I don't need to say too much about the charges at this point, besides it's just been a disaster. And last week for LA, I mean, that cover against the Seahawks or a push for many was incredibly misleading for how that came played out. That was Seattle dominating for three quarters and then going foot off the gas. You could only look at the Chargers in this one at three and a half with the new play collar. It's just an angle that I typically love. And so that's what I would look at. And as I'm looking in the back, one, two, three, four, five, six Colts, four Steelers and a couple of the Steelers were tighter games. I'm telling you, there is some of these games at the top with these teams that are a bit hard to read with the inconsistency. So some of the media thoughts and the media takes, maybe myself included. Hey, I might put myself in that bucket. Pretty, pretty wide variance of what we're seeing. San Francisco on the road at Seattle, Seahawks, three point favorite. I certainly think this closes higher. This came in the divisional round last year, close Seattle six and a half. Obviously the Niners had injuries, but they've got injuries now. What I'm curious to see is can the Niners sustain what they've been doing on offense against a much, much, much more difficult defense in Seattle and doing it on the road? I think I at least think about a couple of things with the 49ers. Like there's no question Brock Perty and Kyle Shanahan are operating this offense at a ridiculously high level. And I'm not here to say that any of this has been misleading. I'm not here to say that any of this has been not as it's been shown. I mean, this is elite offensive play calling and execution. I'm made just a wealth of injuries at wide receiver at the skill positions. I mean, everybody's banged up for San Francisco. Brock Perty is yet to be sacked this season. Has faced very little pressure in the pocket. San Francisco has lived in 21 personnel with whichever running back is on the field and juice check. Taking him out of the equation now after juice got injured last week. I think it's going to force San Francisco into a lot of different looks. I'm not going to say that Shanahan is not capable of replicating a lot of the success. That's not where I'm going with this. I just think it forces the Niners to have to be different this week. And against Seattle, I don't think it's an ideal scenario where changes are forced. I think another thing about San Francisco that might impact things here is this schedule has been kind of ideal for them. They had that game against the Rams in week one, which the Rams have kind of said to this point, at least from a face perspective. I want to say it was a throw away, but I think we've all seen the interviews by now. And then for San Francisco, it was two of three layups after that, and then a third against Denver, who just had to make the play collar switch officially. And so to start the year like this with that three game homestand after the week one game against the Rams, I mean, it certainly allowed the 49ers to coach around a lot of these injuries and be able to do things as they haven't, at least by Miami and Arizona, not overly tested in any way either side and then against Denver, just a bizarre game plan that I think if that game was replayed, especially with Payton as the play collar, we see that go a very different way. Now, it's not gonna happen, but I think it's kind of an ideal. I just wonder now, do all of these injuries, all of this performance at this level that has been 5% better than the McDaniel dolphins that broke offensive records. It's been 6% better than the 2000 Rams. Like does that hold now with the injuries on the road against Seattle? Even last week against Denver, Broncos lose both of their starting cornerbacks, cornerback one and two. San Francisco up to that point when both of those guys went down in the third quarter. I mean, that's three points. There's nothing going on in the offense. Half-time interviews, Shanahan's talking about how they can't do anything in third and one in short yardage and they can't move the chains. Like for him to say that at a half-time interview is very unusual. And so I think there's clearly potentially spot for things to come back. I also think like two Shanahan against what we've seen so far against McDonald, Evan Silva over at ETR had a good note in his write-up. Like first time they played each other puts up 30 plus and we've seen 30 turn into 17 into 13 into 7 into 6 into 6. Like every time these two teams play each other and McDonald sees it again, it seems like the advantage grows from McDonald. And not only is there now that potentially growing advantage but on the flip side, Brian Flurry was with Shanahan on the 49ers coaching staff for seven seasons. Now he's calling offensive plays for Seattle. So there's almost last year it was the advantage of Kubiak coming from a similar situation. Now he has Flurry coming over from a similar situation which seems to be working to the advantage of Seattle knowing what San Francisco's going to do. And so this to me is a number I think ends up closing higher than three by the time we get to kick off. Detroit on the road at Arizona no help for the lion's defense yet. I'm very confused what's going on with Arizona and why they can't generate explosive plays on offense. I know that they want to be a heavier personnel, physical team up front and do that. But they've faced some really bad defenses so far this season and done so in ideal conditions for most of them. And they just haven't been able to generate explosives. And what's starting to show is not only is percent making a few more mistakes but there's kind of longer drives being forced from this cardinal's offense. And they can't generate those explosives. Harrison can't get open and separate down field and it's just leading to an offense that's a little bit clunky. Now they get the easiest matchup so far of the season against the lion's defense that's really struggling. They don't have reinforcements in the secondary back yet. those look like they could return next week, the pressors from. Kelvin Shepherd. I mean, what in the world is he thinking, saying what he did this week? I initially, I was in my Spanish lesson, which is based around NFL now with a friend and he's a big lion's fan and he was asking me, "Did you see the clips?" And he was explaining to me the clips in Spanish and I was like, "There's no way, I must be misunderstanding what he said because there's like why would why would Shepard say that on a team coach by Dan Campbell? Like that's so not what Campbell led teams do ever." And so I'm like semi, semi, I finished the class and I go back and watch the clips that happened while I was on the lesson. I couldn't believe it. I was blown away. I wonder what that does just mentally for some of these players for the lions? Now I think Campbell's good enough coach to hold it together. But man, what a for a defense struggling this bad for Shepard to go out and blame his guys and take burden away from himself, bizarre. So I do wonder if there's a bit of a ripple effect from that and maybe we see a little less than 100% from the lions here in a travel spot defensively. Now flipping that around, after Arizona concedes 30 plus to James Winston and coming off a game where San Francisco walked up and down the field and did whatever they wanted, they get a lions offense that week after week is starting to get better and better timing wise. Williams back involved in the offense starting to look kind of like a lion's offense from a couple of years ago. There's also the big advantage that Drew Petsing is calling place and Petsing was with this Arizona team for the last couple of seasons prior. A lot of familiarity that comes over. I think that matters. And I think it sets up Detroit for pretty good opportunity to move the ball. Total from 51 and a half, bet up to 54 and a half. I think rightfully so. At this point, I wouldn't be running to play an over that needs 55 or more points to cash. But the man like prop wise or however you want to look at this, I think offensively both teams have have pretty clear paths to success, especially if Detroit may be not quite 100% defensively on that back end in particular. We'll see how that situation unfolds. Chicago on the road at Green Bay, this was from Packers 2 1/2 to Bears as high as 2 1/2 some three showed. They didn't last numbers now back to 1 1/2 earlier today. It was one. And then there was a video of Caleb Williams at practice coming out. Now I don't I wouldn't put it past Ben Johnson, especially in this game against Green Bay. For him to pull a bit of a fast one with the QB situation. Now I'm not implying that that is the case nor suggesting that it's going to be, but for him to go from early week and watching that interview back to be fair, I don't think it was necessarily a full injury report, but he certainly planted the comment that Caleb Williams would not be able to play in this game. And looking back on it, after seeing Williams at practice today, I go back and look at that presser and I could see how the way he worded it, albeit moderately unethical in terms of injury reporting and what have you. I could see how that could be him kind of disguising what might be the reality here. And the way that he handles games and coaching, even though basically everything up to about 11 o'clock this morning suggested Williams would not be back at earliest until next week. All of the sudden I start to have a minor sense of doubt that that might be the case and he might be back there. Again, nothing confirmed. This is no news or info just reading between how things fall. It was certainly an interesting kind of video to see after those comments earlier in the week. And so the market responded to that and the bears took a little bit of money, whether it was a true position or just an adjustment, but that's now up to one and a half and shaded a little higher. Total has gone up from 44 and a half, up to 45 and a half. And I, I mean with no weather in the forecast, I don't know how, I certainly can't see this total going lower, whether it's Tyson Pageant or whether it's in a very freakish circumstance, Caleb Williams coming back to play because the Packers defensively have not been able to stop anybody. And I get that the bears little dinged up on the offensive line, dinged up in the in the back field. But I mean the Johnson against his defense is certainly still going to be able to move the football. It might not look as efficient to some games we've seen if it's agent again. But I just, there's not a lot of trust in that Packers defense whatsoever. And then for the Packers, I don't want to say they fixed their online issues, but additions last week with some veterans being added to the online certainly helped against the box who looked pretty damn good defensively against the Cowboys on Thursday night. Offense change slightly for Green Bay, little less deep shots, little less gamble, little more sustained offense. So I think that's a positive. I don't buy into anything the bears are doing defensively yet. So I think the Packers are certainly going to be able to move the ball. To me, the question is if this is Tyson Pageant starting, like there is, there's always been a drop for backup QBs after their initial debut. You've heard me talk about the backup QB discount for years in the NFL. It's almost always an over adjustment in the first game. It is incredibly difficult to replicate success. The backups are backups for a reason. Rob Pazola had for the first time I've ever heard from somebody he on his show this week quantified what that difference is. And I may be misquoting, but it was five points different in the second start versus the first start. It's the first time I've ever heard someone put a number to it. He obviously always has great stuff, but hearing that was was a pretty good mark for just that kind of subjective feeling around the league and how that typically is the case. And it makes a ton of sense. And so it's been very difficult for teams to replicate that and as good as Ben Johnson is and has been. I don't know if he's able to do that with an offense that's a little bit less than a hundred percent. And I mean, even in those matchups last year that are always going to be a reference point like this, especially early in the season. Like the packers with with the same offense or at times without Watson, like we're able to move the ball and build leads against the bears. It was just things happening late that cost the packers. And so to see this adjusted up, like you just don't see for a non-QB injury in terms of like Jordan love being hurt. Like from two and a half off of a packers win going and swinging through zero, getting back to two and a half the other way with a backup still starting for that team with the offense a little bit dinged up. You just you don't see prices like that in the NFL with a backup QB starting. If this is William starting, it's it's going to go north to three, but we'll have to see how that plays out in the next couple of days. Also one more note on the total. They just came to mind. I watch the entire packers jets or the entire bears jets game last week. Man, sitting on over 43 and a half, two of nine in the red zone. The teams combined for the bears failed on five red zone attempts. Jets failed on two. There were so many points left on the board in that game. And the the bears weirdly have played to a couple unders now following the Carolina game. One of those was horrible weather. But they went like week one dead over team. They're going to score a million points. Everyone is buying into it. And they've been 21 27 three the last three weeks, three straight unders. That's part of the reason total wise, why I think we see this go up because I mean that offensive mindset and core is still there. Obviously it shifted with the backup QBs going in and out. But a lot of that core element to what makes this an over team is still there. And I think the packers now a pretty good catalyst for that. You think last week, Geno Smith and the Jets down some guys week, Jalen Hertz and that offense for fairly obviously very broken and then against Minnesota and Carson Wentz very broken offense and very broken team all together. And so that's why I just I look at that total and think we'll see over money between now and kick off. Sunday night football ball to more on the road at Atlanta. I'm still confused while Lamar may be playing in this was a story all week. The market never respected it. This was six and a half for the Ravens. It has moved through. And again in the background, you're watching the TV one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight Vikings as a dog two saints. Like these short dogs very popular in the media this week. Six and a half for the Ravens out to three and a half for Atlanta total from 49 and a half down to 43 and a half Huntly will start for the Ravens as a flower is questionable still dealing with the hamstring injury Expectation for Huntly with the Ravens in the last couple of seasons has been right around the 20 point per game mark. He just isn't It's not a big scheme difference, but he's not able to execute the offense anywhere close to what Lamar does Maybe it looks a bit different with Declan Doyle calling plays rather than what we've seen the last couple of seasons There's a bit of a surprise element there Against an Atlanta defense that has been on the overperformed the last couple of weeks to got a Saints team banged up on the O line got a Packer's team banged up on the O line now get a Ravens team that certainly banged up at center Jergens won't likely start because he's dealing with the concussion still so it's center number Three for the Ravens third string center plus backup QB Not a recipe for offensive success, especially against the defense that's been on the overperformed and able to generate a lot of pressure Maybe they get away with it for another week. I could see that being a pretty high variance matchup within this game And so if you have that kind of 20 point expectation for the for the Ravens You think about do they have enough to slow down this Atlanta offense with penics London and Bijan together on the field as well as Kyle Pitz hasn't been a lot of those snaps the last two years But when they've all been together, this has been a top five offense in the NFL incredibly difficult to stop and At times this Ravens defense even with Jesse mint are coming over and the expectations being very high Have not had nearly as much success as I think expected of them now Thinking about the last two defensive opponents that Atlanta has faced a packer's defense that has zero hope of stopping outside zone runs against a Saints defense that was dealing with multiple injuries at linebacker. I mean, it was just made easy for them And so perhaps a bit of inflation on the offense a much more difficult opponent on paper in the Ravens defensively But this team with those guys healthy to damn good offense and I I think the number on the side is is quite frankly right I Think the total is going to get that up from 43 and a half. I don't think it's gonna be a massive move, but I just I Don't know who's gonna look at this adjusted down six points and just kind of jive and agree with that after what we've seen from Atlanta the last couple of weeks and We haven't seen Atlanta have to really chase yet either. They've had very comfortable leads in both games early and Have still kept pressing and so What does it look like when they maybe have to chase a little bit? You start to wonder that maybe accelerates things up a little bit too so I don't I Don't think this closes 43 and a half. I think it closes a little higher Nascam on the board Buffalo on the road at the LA Rams Three was the look ahead got to two and a half. It is now out to three and a half at Fandall three and a half at Circa Three and a half at Caesars I don't think this will close three on the side total from 53 and a half up to 54 and a half So defensively for Buffalo and the training camp portion of the offseason in the preseason portion There were so many comments from defensive staff that this defense is going to take time to get right and sort things out and there's made public and throughout this season Very similar things have been consistent week after week and I want to reference and who covers the bills and does a phenomenal job His ex and O posts the last couple of weeks have really illustrated all of the timing and communication Issues that the bills have defensively and I don't I don't think those are going to get fixed in a week you're going into LA. I think this is This is longer term stuff that's going to take time to get sorted out and I think some of his breakdowns which were much more eloquently delivered than I could ever do For anyone who wants to go over and look at that kind of breakdown some of the lack of speed on the back end the lack of communication the difficulty getting ready pre snap Just how misaligned a lot of this this is in the back end It's a problem for Buffalo right now and again Sean McVeigh in the Rams That is going to be life made very very difficult The Rams Right now through four weeks have the biggest yardage differential In the last 30 years of the NFL in their favor. I mean they're consistently out gaining opponents putting up massive numbers It just hasn't translated into red zone and scoring success Which I even fully confident McVeigh can sort out especially in this matchup against Buffalo I think about the Rams schedule to like Australia for them was clearly a throwaway and a nuisance and an annoyance So I don't think much about that week one game at all and then it's Coming home to play the Giants a Monday night football. They have a week to rest recover kind of get right Look very good against an inferior opponent But then it's a short week on the road to Denver It is then a cross country trip to Philadelphia. I mean this schedule makers Really gave it to the Rams to put it lightly I mean this is not an easy game against Buffalo. Oh, so don't get me wrong I'm not saying that this is a step down But it's the first game of the Rams schedule That feels like they can actually come in Rested and adequately prepared. I mean that the injury to To Miles Garrett is longer term. They've obviously adjusted the life without that But now they have Nuku back in the lineup. They have the backfield settled. They have everything kind of Just slowing down with the chance to exhale and now they get a defense that's having some really Evident structural Scheme change driven issues That really work in advantage of the Rams Now this total has been met up a little bit It's kind of been removed from an immediate play on for me the bills in the first Several seasons of Josh Allen's career anytime you could get them indoors was almost an auto bet to the over That's like we're seeing that now basically since early last year start to get priced in like the difference for Allen indoors Versus some of the weather games that have skewed his numbers in the past is significant It's just a different offense. It's a different Josh Allen He's downplaying his knee injury We did it last week. He did it again this week There was tape after the Chargers game he got hit with about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter There was tape of him trying to shake that off. There was tape of him in the locker room pregame or postgame There's tape of him walking out of the stadium I want to buy into the fact that there was something impacting him last week for the Pats game last week against New England the rate of understander usage went way down The rate of play action usage went way down and now and ran five times for four yards His yardage output was the lowest of his career the last four seasons typically when you see The bills trailing Especially in the meaningful game like that's when Allen's rush rate goes way up I think if you went to any professional prop better last week and said the bills were going to be trailing in the fourth quarter In a very tight game against the Pats in division You want Allen over 35 and a half rushing yards Whatever it ended up closing out. I mean everybody's jumping on that bet or at least certainly jumping on the over for rushing attempts And it was just a completely different looking Allen in the pocket And so I want to think last week there was something going on perhaps that lingers A little bit here and has an impact very tough to kind of quantify. He says he's fine and all right I don't know But it's it's something that's sitting in the back of my mind after seeing Last week Brady and and Allen and it's kind of struggle Within this offense and so I don't think the defensive issues get sorted I think the Rams offensively Like this just it seems like I don't want to say the start of the Rams season But it sure seems like the start of a Rams run And I told the story earlier in the season week one I was talking with a pro before the Australia game on the Tuesday And we were talking it's like this Rams team is priced ridiculously short like it's always looking to fade The Rams are bet against them and they were obviously priced Massively high to start the season and then all these injuries and Perception and everything changed and we're seeing them at a much more reasonable price point but I mean this team is playing like A team that was priced the way they should have been preseason and They're playing like a four and no team not a two and two team Like this team is their numbers and underlying metrics are just so much better than what we've seen in the scoreboard. And now with, again, that stretch of schedule out of way, a chance to exhale, guys coming back, getting a little bit healthier. Like I think this is where we see that this Rams team return to that price point. And probably in the next couple of weeks, they go from being this team that's now reasonable to being that overpriced team that we saw earlier in the season. And so this, I think the side goes up. I think the total is, is probably where it should be, even with these bills indoor games, just exploding on offense and probably a bounce back after what we saw from last week. There were some questions that came in. I'm going to try read them. Naturally, somebody complaining about them thought colds offense of line looked very vulnerable last week. I agree with that. There's a ton of them. I just can't tilt my head to see them. And so maybe I'll get the camera going the other way next week or something. We'll look at that. I also see on X that this came out very sideways as well. So that's made well fix it. I'm just sitting here at the table finishing up the week and the work week. And so figured I'd go on and stream a little bit. So I appreciate anybody who has taken the time to stop by. I appreciate everybody who has listened on the podcast feed. We'll keep trying to do the episodes every Monday and Friday going forward. Thanks again for stopping by. Have an awesome week number five betting the NFL can't be worse than last week. So we're on the up. So looking forward to the games and probably I would say one or at least one more side or total will be sent out. So keep an eye on the newsletter for that one. Have an awesome Friday and an awesome weekend, everybody. Chat to you again soon.