Friday Preview - NFL Week 4

Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the podcast feed for the Friday morning preview. I had a NFL week number four in this episode. I'm going to go down the board, speak about everything that I have seen going on in all of these games side total injuries, matchups, anything that I think can help you make a decision ahead of the games on Sunday. I'm going to do my best to do this episode every Friday morning going forward. This was formerly the Wednesday afternoon live stream, not getting back into doing daily, but we'll have this uploaded along with the Monday morning pod, looking back at the games that were in reacting to opening lines. So as I said, on the Monday show Monday morning, Friday morning going forward here on the podcast feed, there will be an episode before we get rolling. I just want to say two things. First of all, this morning, 10, 05 AM Pacific time, 105 PM Eastern time FS1. I will be on the herd doing a pick segment. It's the first time I've been able to do that on the herd. I've done some pre-season speculation. This will be the first time I've done an in-season segment. So the nerves are pretty high. It's probably the biggest show I've ever done. And so if anybody is watching FS1 at home or at the office and you want to give me a review on how it went, I would appreciate it very much. And speaking of reviews, anybody who's taken a few seconds out of their day the last few weeks to leave a review on Apple podcasts or on Spotify, as well as leave a comment. I appreciate it. An absolute ton that supports the podcast a lot. It was again inside the top 100 on Apple and Spotify for sports podcast in the US because of all your support, listening, downloading, leaving the reviews just behind Jim Rome and Chris Sims. And so tough battle with two longstanding industry front leaders. But I appreciate all the support for the little podcast here that's been going on for a while. And all the sports you guys are giving and the reviews and comments makes me feel great, but also boost the show and helps me out a lot. So I appreciate those. And if you do have a second and you still would like to do that, if you have not yet done so, would appreciate it very, very much. So exciting Friday all around with the podcast back and a big show coming up. Not going to be something consistent on the herd, but the opportunity to do it is pretty special in season. So very much looking forward to doing that. Let's get to the games on the board and talk through these as we go. Again, everything that went out on the newsletter at Adam turnoff.com will be left out that goes to the newsletter and everybody supporting it over there. Everyone can go over and do so. We'll give some notes on all the other games as we go. London game Indian apolis on the road at Washington, both teams on the road. You guys know I'm locked in the format. It's hard to change. Indian Washington both on the road playing each other in Washington Tottenham Stadium, weather is clear. No concerns that are dealing with wind. No concerns dealing with rain. Temperature is fine. So it is a London game without an impact field surface has been long perfected. We saw this game at four and a half on the look ahead. But the entire week it was down to three and a half. Circa went to four. Buck, I went to four and bet online went out to four yesterday. And so that gives some context in what you're looking at and how this market is shaping up total from 46 and a half up to as high as 48 and a half money has been trending up on the over. I don't have a ton to say on this matchup. I think we've seen Washington get a little bit more respect than they deserve out of that game against Seattle locker room responded well to what we saw from Marcus Mary Oda. It feels like a bit of a difference this week. But this is a team that has serious issues on defense. And really to me, the question is if Indianapolis is able to look as good as they did against Kansas City, a much more capable defense. If they're able to look as they did against Houston, the much more capable defense, albeit tapered off versus their week two performance. And then they were very much tested in week one by that new look Ravens defense. Like this is such a step down for Indy. And I just I just wonder if Washington is going to be able to get enough stops to help an offense that very much underachieved albeit against a very good Seattle defense last week. But this feels like. It feels like a game where Indianapolis is going to be very comfortable in offense. And I don't think a lot of it's going to come through the ground game. Washington's quietly been a little bit better against the run. I think this is going to be a Daniel Jones pushing the ball down field quick passing type of game. It's going to force Washington into playing a bit of catch up. And we'll see now that Mary Oda has been out there with the new wide receivers and the new offense and the new play collar. How much gets adjusted from last week. Again, there wasn't much of sustained success last week. A lot of the drives were shorter. Nothing really excited me from what Washington did. Now Indy on defense obviously a tough schedule Lamar in week one Patrick Mahomes in week two Texans bit of a step down in week three. But certainly putting Washington in this current state with the backup QB in a similar category to where that Houston offense was. And so do the Colts with these corners who should be a lot better than they are and should be a lot better than they're playing have a bit more success. I think McLaren's going to be a very tough match up for either of them, the way that they're playing and the lack of success that this defense has had. And so I understand why the total is moving up. I understand now why Indy is moving out towards four. And why I think that takes up a little bit further. But not a game that I've got to excited about side nor total. New England on the road at the Buffalo Bills. This game has been bet up from six and a half to seven total from 50 and a half down to as low as 48 and a half really no weather concerns anywhere. Small chance of rain in New York. Small chance of rain in Baltimore. The big game. I think Sunday night. There's some questions about what is the rain going to be like in Carolina. We'll talk about that in a little bit. But other than that, just not a lot of weather that's going to be impacting these games like we've seen the last couple of weeks. Buffalo out to seven makes a lot of sense for how the bills have been trending early week. There was concerns about Josh Allen and in the injury. I think that kept us a little bit lower. Half a point specifically compared to where we were last week with the bills at home against the chargers. And then the way that this week is trended post game Mike for Abel was asked about Drake May shoulder and there's almost like this incessant push from Patriots reporters that something is wrong with Drake May shoulder. And I mentioned it on Monday. It was weird how may answered that question. It was also a little bit odd how variable answered the question. The week went on and there were another couple jabs trying to figure things out. And then it got to an interview later in the week with McDaniels. And he was almost speculating that there was a hit where May got a little bit banged up. And there actually is something lingering, but they're down playing the severity of it and how serious it is. And I just wonder how much that's impacting things here in combination with what we've seen from Josh Allen. There just seems like there's a little bit of doubt with what's going on with New England. Obviously the offensive line dealing with injuries. The past rush has been a far cry from what it was a year ago. I'm not saying there's no problems with this team, but centered around Drake May, it sure seems like there might be something cooking there. The way that the questions keep coming in over and over and over has been a little bit unusual from the flow of questioning for what you're dealing with. It was also listing the Chris Sims. He was doing a breakdown of some of his release mechanics and how much they've changed. And I wonder if that's a bit of sort of the yips going on and what that entails. And maybe it's tied to the shoulder injury that is or isn't really a thing. It's just a weird feeling around this past team at the moment. And with the Allen injury seemingly cleared up, this number is starting to drift out because you get to the point where you're trying to figure out where does New England rank relatively to the chargers. And this is the Pat's offense that has scored 29 points on 30 drives this season. And now they're going on the road into Buffalo to play not only the best offense that they have faced all season, but a defense that isn't going to be threatened whether the weakest, which is in the secondary with all of these issues going on seemingly with Drake May in this passing game and this offense and how it looks without AJ Brown. So perhaps an opportunity here for the bill's defense of front to look a little bit better than it has been now with that said number drifting out as I mentioned that comparison in the numbers. I don't think in division in this spot that the price should necessarily be the same as to where it was last week. And I know last week was quite an inflated number. And the bills were very fortunate to have things fall the way they did in the final eight minutes of the game to get outside of that number and cover. I just have a little bit of doubts around that. I didn't pull the trigger on New England just because I think the questioning around Maine as shoulder is so odd and hearing the breakdown of the mechanics and the changes. I'm just concerned about how that looks and how it plays into. And I don't really want to bet into the Pat's even though I think the number is pushing the limits of where we should be. Look ahead last week was five preseason. This number was much tighter as well. And so it's a very similar market and scenario to what it was last week for Buffalo hosting the chargers just with the QB issues. I am I am hesitant. to do much in that one. New York Jets on the road at the Chicago Bears. Three on the look ahead opens up three and a half. Chicago was a team that we did not talk about on the Monday morning pod because they obviously played in Monday night football. That game against Philadelphia was wildly impressive. And I talk all the time about backup, quarterbacks, winning games and being undervalued or the just being over adjusted for however you want to phrase it or interpret it the backup QB discount is a very real thing. And what we're seeing more and more as a common theme is when you have a really good offensive play caller that tends to disguise the downgrade even more. And so the story was case kingdom hasn't played in three years, but the reality was he's a veteran QB operating an incredibly sophisticated offense that was able to take advantage of a very specific week this for the Eagles and press it over and over and over again. And so the bears won the net yard per play battle won the total yard battle 7.3 to 5.0 per pass. They were also able to run for 128 yards. Very impressive start to finish and the defense which had no showed for a couple of weeks. As we so often see think about Seattle in the second half against New England, think about what they did on the road against Arizona. You get that elevated defensive effort because they know they have to contribute that little bit more just the great motivational spot with the backup QB perhaps throttling out the offense a little bit. Now something that very often happens with backup quarterbacks. There's the initial bump, especially with the good play collar because it's unclear what is coming and it's unclear what it looks like. Then in week two, when that's been established and that's been shown, all of the sudden it doesn't look as great. Now another ongoing theme that we have seen so far through three weeks and now week four of betting three weeks of games, four weeks of markets is many of the traditional spots. I know on YouTube, there was someone who counted how many times I said spot in the Wednesday preview. So I hope you're listening to the new Friday preview which is the old Wednesday preview and still counting spots. The spot was that week two you see an overreaction, especially off of a win and then it's really hard for those teams to replicate the same offensive success that they had in the first meeting because it's on tape. People have seen it and these backup QBs are backups for a reason and you see that go the other way. Now the backup QB trend, I saw posted all over social media seven and oh, we're backup QBs in week three or none number one starters. This game for Chicago against the jets. Typically, we would have seen this adjusted up a little bit more. This was three on the look ahead market open three and a half and the jets were actually bet at three and a half. In years past, I feel like this would have been four, four and a half, especially with the jets coming off of the loss against Detroit and that hasn't been the case. And so it's another example this year of how a lot of the traditional spots are being bet differently and certainly bet earlier in the week. And this is now the jets taking a bit of money. If you're putting me on the spot, initially looking at three and a half, I was pretty intrigued with the idea of taking the jets, getting the points. And the reason that I was so is because I think when forced to pass, this jets offense is a little bit better than they've been given credit for. They really trust their offensive tackles. Geno Smith has been quite efficient when pushed to drop back and pass. And all of the sudden, even with 80 Mitchell, who pre injury led the league in intended ariards as well as the injury with Mason Taylor. We saw Sadie class week break out seven receptions for 105. Weston and cornfields was all over that was loving it. Garrett Wilson, again, just a leap wide receiver. Like there's weapons here to attack secondaries. And Geno has been just very average. And I said, as a compliment, slightly better than so in many categories. Like this is a jets offense that can actually push the ball down field. I think about the issues that Chicago has had defensively, I kind of like the prospects of the jets to be able to move the ball. I also like the prospect of the jets being able to run the ball a little bit. I know it's not something they've done well at all the last two weeks. The only time we've seen them with any sort of efficient ground game was in week one, but against the bears, I just felt like there was an opportunity here for them to move it. You just get the bears off of that big win. Everything being thrown at the Eagles big conference game. And now it's a repeat six days later against the jets. Just felt a little bit tougher for them to get outside this number and cover what has kept me off of this again, being honest is I just can't get past the fact that Ben Johnson went against Aaron Glenn defenses week after week after week. Their entire tenure together in Detroit for multiple seasons. And if I was to go through and just rate coaches in the NFL, Ben Johnson very likely inside the top three. And I have a hard time having Aaron Glenn anywhere, but 31 or 32. So not only is there just massive amounts of familiarity with how things operate, which heavily favors Johnson. This is not Aaron Glenn knowing what Ben Johnson's going to do and put up just a brand new scheme that catches him off guard. This is all Johnson knowing exactly what is coming at him with a lesser talented jets defensive front and secondary than what was on the other side of him in Detroit. And being able to scheme into that and scheme around that. And I just have a difficult time backing Aaron Glenn leading a jets team into Chicago to compete with that. And so that's that's what's kept me off of this here and hasn't led me to bet the jets and the number again, just it's the same that I'm seeing all over. It's just not that big adjustment up that's making the big difference when you typically see it. Arizona on the road at the New York Giants, this was spoken about on the newsletter. So I'm going to leave this one specifically out of the podcast. If you've not yet subscribed to Adam turnoff.com, you can do so and you can read all about this game. Dallas on the road at the Houston Texans Texans were two and a half on the look ahead. This number stayed there the entire week until Wednesday and on Wednesday, the screen lit up because of the news around Nico Collins, who has practiced the last couple of days and the expectations are that he is going to be playing in this game from an injury report perspective. There was speculation that this is the week where he could have returned. Now with desperation added in, he is going to be pushed back. There's questions around how limited he may be in this game. The scales are now based on the practice ramp up tipping towards the last limited side. Then they were a little bit earlier in the week. And so for a Houston team that has not had any wide receivers on the field the last two weeks and desperately needed them and has not been able to get any run game going really is going to get a big impact from having an elite wide receiver. Nico Collins back on the field, especially so because they're facing this Dallas Cowboys secondary. This is how you want to attack Dallas. You want to push the ball down field. You want to take on these DBs. This game gets a little bit mudier now as you hear to news that Joey Porter has been traded to Dallas on Thursday morning. Joey Porter being traded to Dallas also comes with the tagline that Porter is likely to be playing in this game for the Cowboys. And so that is a big boost for a secondary. It's a cornerback and Porter who can play man, which can potentially give Collins off of the injury a little bit of trouble. Collins in the past. You think about some of the big games that he's had typically in division against the Colts, those zone heavy teams with Stroud. That's when the matchup has been most familiar and most beneficial to anybody backing Collins and the Texans and props. And it's certainly not saying that he can't do anything against man coverage. And I'm not saying the Porter's 100% either with this lingering back issue. But I do think that was more kind of contract related than anything. It's just maybe not as ideal of a matchup advantage and a boost for the Texans as it could have been if you didn't have the Porter news. Another negative for Houston in this game is Aziz al-Shayir massive, massive part of that defense doubtful for this game. And you think about Dallas and the offensive line issues that they've been dealing with and trying to find a more consistent run game taking him out of the middle of the field is a massive blow to this Texans defense. And so a lot of the injury news on Houston here at two and a half as this got pushed up to three was somewhat negated or potentially fully offset to some extent. And that is a bit disappointing because this again from just a traditional handicapping spot is just an easy circle and decision to make on the Texans. especially at two and a half, but with the way that that was trending, not only was it difficult to bet earlier in the week, just because there was some news and uncertainty, but now even with the port and news, and even with the news around disease, this is still hanging out at three. Now, I get to feeling tomorrow, or I'm courting this Thursday night after Thursday night football, but I say tomorrow Friday, if you're listening Friday, later this afternoon, Fauci a year has ruled out and porters officially given the green light. I get the feeling that this probably comes off of the three and there's some intrigue for Dallas, but from a, just a traditional spot sense, Owen three Houston at home, who is probably the best Owen three team that we have seen in the league in a long time. And I know they were in the same spot last year, but this is a better team. It's a Texans defense that has looked better than there being given credit for against Josh Allen against Joe burrow against Daniel Jones. And so as good as this Cowboys offense has been, it's a Texans defense that's already been tested and stood up and look good. And I think Stroud, especially when kept clean and not pressured is playing way better than he's being given credit for. I think that that's undervalued. And the Cowboys off of that game going to Brazil. The first two weeks against New York and Washington, Washington, they get the backup QB. New York was a defense that didn't have to take the field because the offense for the Giants was just holding the ball. We see what they look like against a great team in Baltimore. And a lot of breaks went the Cowboys way. They should have won that game in the end, but ultimately threw it away. This, this just is going to be a much tougher spot for them to deal with off of that game in Brazil. And again, you hear me speak about it. And I'm like, man, if some of these just fell the other way, if Dallas wins that game, this would have opened at a much different number. Houston would have been even a better bet. But it's just kind of what we're seeing from the market so far this year where these spots are someone anticipated. And again, even with that injury news, this is still sitting high on Houston. I would be very hard pressed to come up with a strong case to be confident in here betting Dallas. But again, just with how this is all shaken down, it becomes hard to bet Houston as well. Jacksonville Cincinnati. Now this was a game that was put out on the newsletter. And I'm not going to speak about it here on the podcast. And we encourage everyone to go to Adam turnoff.com. I'll speak about the other one that I wrote about coming up a little bit later. So it's not going to be a full shut out here on the pod every week as I do with the free email newsletter. There's a free email that goes out with the right up. And so I'll talk about that one as well a little bit later. But I do want to save Jacksonville Cincinnati and all my thoughts on that game for everybody who is over on the newsletter. Green Bay on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Packers sitting at a three and a half point number total from this game down as low as 38 and a half. Now 45 and a half was the look ahead total. This is obviously at 38 and a half because Jalen Daniels is starting for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has taken a lot of criticism and press even without taking a snap. But that is coming from just the lack of familiarity around who Jalen Daniels is. There's also injury issues with Jalen McMillan who has been put on IR for the week for the Buccaneers as well. Bucky Irving limited back-to-back days. Godwin was a limited participant Wednesday but got in a full on Thursday. So he'll be set to go. The Irving news continues to kind of linger. It's a little bit unexpected about what we're going to see from him. Differing injury reports have differing stances on just how severe he might be limited or what we're going to expect. And so kind of unclear about what we're going to get from Bucky Irving. But against this Bucks defense or Packers defense part of me, they got absolutely blowing up by the Falcons offensive line of Bigeon Robinson. Very important to kind of keep an eye on Irving. Important to see also the role change potentially prop wise with gain well. If Irving comes a little bit limited or limited in this matchup just because X and O wise, you would expect this Buccaneers offensive line to finally be able to show up. Now, week one against Cincinnati, Bangle's defensive line looked very good. How much of that was Bangle's D line versus how much of that was Bucks offensive line. I think the Bucks looked better than the scoreboard indicates in that game. Cleveland, bit of an odd game. Kind of give a little bit of criticism to the Bucks offensive line for not being better in that one. But also Minnesota, you think about the Flores defense and how great that has been. You give them a bit of a break in that spot. And so certainly in this matchup against the Packers, this is the worst defensive line the Bucks have faced all season long. It's the worst defense that they have faced all season long. And after what the Packers put forth on Thursday night, even with a mobile quarterback in the pocket, you think that the offense would be able to get a little bit of something going. Now, I don't know a ton about Daniels aside from his mobility. We have a couple different pro betters on a call earlier in the week. I won't say who they are, but I will say that there was discussion around what type of arm talent and arm quality do you get out of this QB? And it was very much unknown. And so it's hard to kind of project what you get. Now, this number was Bucks one and a half on the look ahead is out to three and a half. I would like to think that this has been adjusted a hair too far as it tends to be the case with every backup QB. But in terms of the backup, QB, this count, I mean, I, I think back a couple years to Tommy DeVito against the Packers with the giants at home on either a Sunday or a Monday night game plus five and a half. That was as uncertain as I have ever been and backing any of these backup QBs. And this far exceeds that. And so my willingness to just blindly pull the trigger here, hoping that there's a resurgence from the old three bucks behind that all line that is going to have success against the Packers and not very high. And another reason it's not super high is because I think last week was the chance for the Bucks rebound. That was the home game where you expected a winless team at home against a bit of a misleading undefeated team in Minnesota, everything to kind of bounce right and show right. And it didn't. And I think it's more a reflection of what you see from this coaching staff for Tampa Bay and some of the issues with Todd Bowles and how it's resonating throughout the locker room that's becoming a bigger problem than perhaps being talked about. And so I just have no faith whatsoever right now in this staff. Jordan Love should have a lot of success, especially with Christian Watson and the injury concerns negated. Matthew Golden emerging last week as a solid number two. I don't think even though we're going to see a lot of pressure thrown at love. I don't think that this is going to look nearly as bad as it did on Thursday night against the Falcons. I don't want to put the Buccaneers in a category of defense that's as bad as the Falcons. But I do think Green Bay is able to not only run the ball here, but get some Pascant going as well as I look at the total of 38 and a half. And I start to talk about this. If you have a firm opinion about what Daniels is and you feel good about it, you're probably looking at this total and thinking that it is far too low. Otherwise in Tampa Bay, 50% chance of rain, but it is going to be that same type of rain we saw in week two where there's a pretty high probability if it starts coming down to that's a delay rather than just a soaked game for a prolonged time that tends to slow down offences. So you think about that too is a bit of a weather break or a weather free roll in a way. And so really it just depends on this total. If you think Daniels is going to get a couple of good drives and it's better than being talked about, probably look at this total, which has been pushed down a full touchdown being a little bit short because the Packers defensively have been atrocious and they've just been big explosive plays on offense. Nothing sustained. And that's certainly something that can work against this buck secondary LA Rams on the road at the Philadelphia Eagles. Rams now a three and a half point favorite. This was two and a half following Monday night football Rams get bet early in the week. They get bet in the middle of the week and then Thursday afternoon news that Smith is unlikely to play in this game that also follows the news that the Philadelphia Eagles are going to be dealing with injuries to Dallas Goddard who didn't practice Wednesday nor Thursday. So all of the sudden the Philadelphia Eagles offense, which has been struggling mightily is without their best wide receiver number one without their tight end number one. And it's likely a very big reliance on wicks and lemon who just couldn't get integrated into the offense. Despite the best efforts of Sean manion to get both guys open just were never on the same page with Jalen Hertz with what they were doing. And now it is going to have to be resolved somewhat on short notice in a couple days to take on a Rams defense and a Rams team that is incredibly desperate. The Rams got bet in this game for two reasons. One dominated the box score against Denver should have won that game. The NFL came out post game and said they should have won that game because it should not have been PI. And so there's a misleading box scored not only from the numbers, but from actually what transpired that was emitted by the league, like the Broncos, you're not of won that game. So there's part of that being pushed into this market which was slightly adjusted down. And then the second part is for a team that is one and two, the Rams numbers, both from Net Yardage and Net Production and Net Success, suggesting that they should be much better than a one and two team. And on the comparison side, playing the Philadelphia Eagles, who are two and one, a very fortunate win against Tennessee with a light drive. That is a game where the Eagles were north of a touchdown favorite and needed a desperation late drive to come back and get the win. And then against Washington, a team that week after week, we have seen struggle defensively. That was another game where a fortunate penalty on a two point conversion that pushed Washington back, kept that game from being tied and potentially going into overtime. And so not only have the Eagles underperformed on the scoreboard, they've underperformed in the box score. They're dinged up with multiple injuries. They just got embarrassed on Monday night football against the Bears. And it's an offense that visually is as disjointed as we have ever seen from the Eagles. Plenty of time to figure things out, but figuring things out without your two best weapons at the skill positions against this Rams defense is a bit of a tough ask. Something that was very evident to me as well when I was watching that game for the Rams against Denver. That was week three for Sean McVeigh. The look of desperation on his face in the fourth quarter looked like it was a comfort championship game. I mean, he was as stressed out and desperate as as I've ever seen. And I know that a lot of the talk is going to be about how Fangio and the Eagles have beat up on McVeigh three or four times in this matchup and in this tenure. Since Fangio came over and took over the defense for the Eagles, those teams for Philly to me feel very different from what this Eagles team is. And with McVeigh and the multiple tight ends and they have your personnel very similar what Chicago did on Monday night football. I just start to wonder if there's going to be a big change from Fangio or if this is a game that McVeigh can change up and dictate himself. And I kind of feel like the latter is true given the desperation. And so I think there's some matchup and on field stuff into this too that pushes things towards the Rams, which is now to three and a half. And I think has the potential here to go maybe slightly higher off the Smith News depending how you look at it just without disjointed the Eagles offense has been. Total 46 and a half down to 42 and a half. Tennessee on the road of Baltimore. I mean, don't need to spend a lot of time here. I think when you're looking at big favorites like this, Baltimore at times with Lamar has underperformed somewhat in some of these bigger spread situations. This one with just how bad Cam Ward and the Titans offense has been as well as Henry having according to him in the pressors. I mean, watching them this week. Perhaps a little bit of extra motivation to beat his old team. I didn't think that that was still a thing, but he brought it up that they did not try to retain him. So there seems to be a bit of like spite still lingering. So the Ravens out to 11 and a half. My initial thought on this game was the Titans deserve to win week two against the Eagles and lost. They had just a horrific interception at the end of the game against the Giants, but kind of deserve to win that game when you look at the box score. And they come in. Oh, and three. They're a team that's disrespected. It's a mostly non-functional offense. But with all of that said, a team that probably should be at least one and two, if not potentially two and one based on how those games went, and they're not. And then Baltimore is a team that, I mean, Dallas was first in 10 with 23 seconds to go on the two yard line. And somehow ended up losing in regulation. And so did Baltimore deserve to come out of that game in Rio against Dallas with a win? It might be questions there. Lamar took the day off Wednesday after travel veteran, but still it's kind of a reflection of the mentality. And then you have Henry who has struggled mightily in short yardage behind not only his missing center, but now his missing backup center, potentially depending on how things break later on Friday, still potentially without just best offensive lineman. And so a possible scenario where it's Henry running against a good defensive line with starting center and backup center both out. And potentially his best offensive lineman out, there's a matchup advantage there to sort of exploit that. But I just get to the point where I look at this and say, there's nothing from Cam Ward and this Titans offense on the road in Baltimore that gives me any level of confidence that they're going to be able to compete. And if we see Zay Flowers roll increase coming off of the injury, I think back to week one and how easy it looks for Baltimore. Lamar from the pocket this season has been amazing when flowers has been on the field, which has been very limited. And Henry uncharacteristically has struggled in a lot of these short yardage situations. If Baltimore fixes that, which against a team like Tennessee, it's certainly possible to do at home. The ceiling for this offense for Baltimore has not yet been touched since week one. And that's just something that Cam Ward playing ketchup against his defense, which is known for being complex and causing problems. It just worries the heck out of me, even with 11 and a half points. And so another game where just haven't quite been able to get there. Miami on the road at the Minnesota Vikings, 10 and a half is the number from Minnesota across the board, total from 43 and a half down to 38 and a half. This is a very tough matchup, which I am curious to see just how ugly this might get for Malik Willis. And this Dolphins offense going on the road. Devon HN is out and put on IR. His two wide receivers, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, both dealing with injuries, Aaron Brewer, his center dealing with an injury as well. Friday will determine the status of a lot of these guys, but it is potentially running. Well, running back one is for sure out. You might be down two wide receivers in your center. What makes this even more tough is on the road in this environment for Willis is going to be very difficult to deal with. Minnesota indoors, incredibly difficult to play against. But also, you think about the season Brian Flores has been having, which has been as good as it's been through three weeks for a defensive coordinator. Massive motivation game for him. When Miami is on the schedule, it is always a game he has circled, whether you point to the class action lawsuit that he has against the team or how he was let go and everything that tied into that. This is a game where motivation for Flores and his defense is incredibly high. Now, this defense for Minnesota, and just as a 3-0 team, Minnesota is probably the most overrated 3-0 team, just based on numbers, based on net success, based on that EPA that we've seen in a very long time in the league. They've beat a box team that has greatly underperformed. They beat Chicago in horrendous weather, and they beat a Packer's team, which they trailed late in the third quarter, a team that's turned out to look far worse than any expectation that was put on them. But now it's not like it's a step up in class. In any way, and they get to go home after two weeks on the road and host this very young offense without their best skill position player. And it's just an opportunity to be wide open for this Vikings defense. And also for the Vikings offense, which got Murray back last week, but was on the road in Tampa, and a bit of a difficult spot to play. Like, O'Connell has never had a chance to get this offense going. Murray was injured early in that game against Green Bay. They went to Wenz. They were serviceable for two weeks. Murray comes back. He loses Justin Jefferson. There's just been something missing every week for Minnesota. Now it's Murray for the second week in a row. I know Justin Jefferson went down last week, but there's speculation that he has an outside chance to play in this game. Even with him removed, you think about how much success Murray had with the balls to Addison. This is an opportunity now for the offense to just settle and get things right against the worst secondary in football. Whether you want to say it's Miami or Washington could go either way. But Miami is certainly an opportunity for the Vikings to find offense and get things right. And so this totals come down because of the expectation of what the Vikings defense will do against the dolphins offense. If Jefferson is unable to go, it's probably never a comfortable spot to back. Tyler Murray and effectively game two without Jefferson covering this big of a number because the idea that Minnesota, which was a below average team from a wind total perspective preseason is now laying more than double digits at home in week four. That's getting to a very big price point, especially without your top wide receiver. Miami's probably played slightly better than the scoreline show, just box score wise, but defensively massive a damage here for Minnesota. Denver on the road at the San Francisco 49ers, on the newsletter, I sent out Denver plus three minus 120. I would say it side one or two for me favor to the week. This is a week that's been different than the first three in terms of the distribution between sides and totals. Denver three minus 20. There was three minus 10 available at the time I sent out the news that are had some confusion. So to clarify, when I sent it out for those listening that don't know what happened, Bob played the total on this. And I'm not kidding, I sat down to do the right up and I got a text from someone that said, Bob's on the total. And I looked at his site and I was trying to see if he had the right up up and he didn't have it yet. And I was just thinking about that Bob was on the total. And I wrote Denver on the side. And then I had the alternate lines that were in there that were off market. And I put those for the total because I was thinking Bob has a right up on the total. And so that's why there was some minor confusion within the email. But Denver on the side was in bold. And if you read the right up, pretty clear why I felt the way that I do. And so to just kind of go into what got me excited with Denver and why I like this side so much. The first thing was and I said, I don't have my tinfoil hat on. But my conspiracy is that Sean Peyton took over play calling duties. Now I don't think he's calling plays specifically. I still think he's letting Davis web do that. But his halftime interview in week one made it very apparent that there were problems. And Steve Patton charts personnel tendencies. And between weeks one, two, and three, no offenses change tendency more than the Broncos. And the difference was about 25 ranking points. Now I'm not going to get into like every single detail. I'll leave that to Steve who does an awesome job. But more pass rate over expectation, more play action, more motion, personnel, everything shifted towards what Sean Peyton has done in the past. And so whether it's Peyton actually doing it or there was directive behind the scenes, it's become pretty apparent that that is becoming a thing since week one. And that to me raises the floor of what the Broncos have on offense in a big way. Now last week for everyone on the news letter, I sent Cardinals team total over 19 and a half because I look at the Niners defense right now as a pure fade. Arizona ended up with a 51% success rate, but weirdly, they didn't generate any explosives. Now that's kind of what Arizona is. But when you're able to score 30 plus and have a 51% success rate and not have any explosives, that is red flags and alarms all over the defense. And Denver certainly is going to be able to find explosives. But this is just a step up in class that is going to shock this Niners defense in a big way. There's so many injuries for San Francisco, six defensive linemen are out. Linebacker core is now banged up with Greenlaw dealing with an injury. Denver and this offensive line, which is generated good push is going to be able to run the ball. The gap scheme runs are going to work in this game for Denver. And that is going to open up everything that they want to do with this playbook. And I think about Jalen Waddle last couple of weeks, like strong man corners this week, he's not dealing with that in San Francisco. So not only are we going to see the Broncos offensive line win in this game. The Broncos run games going to get going. You're going to get Waddle more involved. There's going to be explosive plays. Denver is going to move the ball. Denver is going to score on the flip side. San Francisco offensively has been ridiculous. It's been as well coached and well executed of an offense over three weeks. If we have seen in a long time and to put it in perspective for how good this has been, if the season ended today, just based on success rate and EPA per play, the Niners are five percent, which is a massive number better than the 2023 Miami Dolphins, which were better than the 2000 Rams. And if you compare it over the first five weeks sample, the Niners are about seven and a half percent better than both of those two teams. But where I kind of question some of this is they faced the Cardinals who are second worst in yards per play allowed. They faced the Dolphins who have the worst secondary and football. And I think the Rams defense and that entire game was a throw away that made LA look way worse than they are. So these defenses that San Francisco has faced, albeit executing to a ridiculously high rate, just have been way worse than what they're going to see across them than with this Broncos defense. And so we'll see what happens with Trent Williams. He's expected to go. Mike Evans has growing doubt. And I think inevitably has some expectations or limitations on him. But even on offense, like to execute at this number and you think you're struggling, who is a big preseason breakout is down Robinson who came in and his places down. Christian Kirk is already down. You now have your best offensive lineman, not quite a hundred percent. You have your best wide receiver, not quite a hundred percent. It's a big step up in class and opposing defense. The Broncos offense and that offensive line, a massive step up for the 49ers defensive line. It's just so much pointing the direction here of Denver. And if the Evans news breaks and goes the way of the Broncos later on Friday, we're going to probably see this number come down. I think it comes down regardless. It's two and a half minus 20 now. I think the Broncos continue to take money to me. Good bet. Good side. Denver this week. I think they pulled the upset Kansas City on the road at Las Vegas, five and a half on the look ahead down to four and a half. It's been four at war, bet online. Few other places during the week hasn't been a big appetite for Kansas City. Chiefs have been interesting so far this season in the market. You think about week one against the Broncos, Broncos took money, especially late. Think about week two against the Colts. Colts took money, especially late. You think about last week for Kansas City faded again. Every single week for KC, money's coming against them. Like the dolphins were 10 and a half 11 point dogs for the majority of the week Saturday Sunday, and limits are the highest dog money coming in. And I get that KC is covered in one and two of those three, but it's another week where money's coming in against the Kansas City chiefs. There hasn't been that clear chiefs position taken anywhere on the board yet. And I kind of see this game two ways. On one hand, it's Las Vegas beating up on weaker competition and kubiak doing what he does. He gets teams off to a very hot start. Did it last year with Seattle, that carried into the playoffs in the Super Bowl. Did it two years ago with the Saints who had very low expectations came roaring out of the gate. This season, he's done it against Miami, L.A., New Orleans. It's not like he's going out and beating the best of the best, but he's beat the worst secondary in football. He's beat the most broken team in the chargers in football. And then he had a big comeback effort against the Saints. His team trailing by double digits in the third quarter. Four turnovers are forced. And they end up winning by eight. The Raiders are 3 and 0. And where I say I see this two ways is I look at the Raiders and what they're doing last week. Saints took money late. And I like what kubiak is doing play calling wise. I obviously love Brock Bauer's. I think everybody does. I just don't feel like this team is going to play at the level that they're winning by going forward. And defensively, their defense is in similar categories to what we're seeing with Seattle and Minnesota. And I just, I don't buy that happening either. And so I'm looking at the Raiders as a fade team. But then this week, I have a hard time getting to the point of fading them when I think about the chiefs who've also played Miami and quite frankly didn't really look as good or as consistent as what the Raiders did against them. In fact, Miami in that game against KC was basically equal and offensive output. Kansas City had far more explosive plays, but the chiefs pretty fortunate to get away with the game against Indy in overtime. So a bit of a misleading win in that regard. Look good week one. But if those play calling situations in Denver or Rio, which I think is, it's a pretty fortunate break for KC to get in a week one as they did. And so I, I just, I have a hard time fully buying into that. I think the chiefs run game has been fantastic with Walker, but also a lot of it has been broken tackles. A lot of it has been these big explosive plays after being hit very close to the line of scrimmage, not something that's typically sustainable long term. there's been issues with blocking up front, which has been disguised by some of these big plays. I don't think the past game, I'll look good against Miami, but I don't think it's been as good as it's being labeled to be either. And so I think there's still issues with KC. Now week one, it felt like that premium that's always on the chiefs wasn't there. It's starting to feel like that is coming back a little bit. And I do think that's the last couple of weeks. Why we've seen things move against them. This is a game early week. I thought I was absolutely going to be on KC. I haven't seen any other pros I talk with on KC. And the market certainly hasn't responded to it either. And I just haven't been able to get to the point where I've pulled the trigger. It's, it's an interesting kind of scenario in this one that I don't know how to handle. I would have thought I was for sure on KC. And I just haven't bet them yet. LA Chargers on the road at the Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks a seven point favorite across the board, total from 43 and a half down to 43 flat. I I struggled so much with this game because I was very wrong with the charges preseason. My first thought in this was how in the world is this Seattle seven. But I I can't I can't bet the charges. I just can't do it. They they're going to man like I thought they looked I don't want to say they looked better than they were. But that game against Buffalo defensively they showed up defensive line one big time against a very good offensive line caused a lot of problems for Alan got takeaways. And it was just the offense which is supposed to be the unit that's driving this team forward and and the solid unit on this team that just continuously let them down. And that's three weeks in a row now. I don't know where any of the offensive issues get fixed against the Seahawks defense. Seattle was so hard done by with the final result against Washington. They go across the country, bad weather, absolutely dominate the box score. The three scoring drives they conceded. One was the defensive score. The other two were short drives of less than 35 yards. They hold Washington under 250 yards of offense. But somehow conceded 33. That was just such a weird game. Seattle deserves so much better overall. Don't get it. And now they get a team that is just so broken on offense and the charges. And I just I can't confidently bet this because I've been so wrong on L.A. But just like last week against Buffalo, a very big number for Seattle. But it could also be a number that's very justified if these problems for the charges continue. I mean, it's just it's so weird to see Harbaugh in this scenario. We've never seen him. And I mean, the tone changed this week. It went from full support and blind support of Herbert to now he's calling him out saying he needs to be better. And that's a very big change in tone and style that we haven't seen. And so things are getting a little bit feisty, I think behind the scenes. And rightfully so the way that this season has started. Detroit Carolina. I was told this week by a very good pro who's probably the best football better I know. And we were on a call. We have one every single week. And he said this. Said I can't believe that you were not on the over in this game at 50 and a half. And it's interesting because early week, I think if I was just to look down the board like in terms of just like a typical turn off over that I know better is referred to. I mean, this certainly fits a lot of the boxes. You have Detroit who last week when I watched them against the Jets. To me, they found their timing. Drew Petson calls a very timing driven offense. That's what Jared Goff tends to thrive in. That's what the Lions have been really good at. And week one against the Saints, the timing was off. And I get that the Lions still scored 31. They've scored 31 in all three games. And so to say timing's off is it sounds weird, but you watch it visually and the timing just looks a little bit off. And last week, I thought it started to get right. And against the Panthers defense now without JC Horn and without Mike Jackson a corner and dealing with guys banged up on the front, but a defense that just hasn't been able to get stops consistently. I'll talk about that in a second. Like this is, this is a big opportunity for the Lions to not only continue to get things right, but to just absolutely go off and explode. I mean, whether they want to work it through Gibbs or they want to have Goff dropping back and pushing at the St. Brown or Jamo, who I think finally breaks out in this game. Like Campbell has this thing where he doesn't bury guys. He wants to get them the ball and get them opportunities with these cornerbacks banged up. I think we see Williams bounce back and have a big game here. I think about the Lions. Like that bills game was a very difficult scenario for them to go into Buffalo. But they just continue to get better and better and better on offense every single week with that timing clicking. And now it's a game on the road and I get its outdoors at Carolina. But this is a Panthers defense that they can absolutely exploit. And I think Carolina defensively, even though they rank poorly across the board, they're probably getting a bit of a break and looking better than they actually are. I think the truth here is much worse because they played the Falcons in week two after giving up 59 to Chicago, who did whatever they wanted. But they played it land in week two with Cooper rush. And we saw how different that Falcons offense is with rush and not 34 to three was the final. But the Panthers defense effectively got a by week. I mean, the Falcons sat everybody in the fourth quarter. Last week against Cleveland, it was still a very disjointed Brown's offensive line that has issues with Watson in the backfield. Like the difference in caliber and quality from a Deshan Watson lead Brown's team and a Cooper rush lead Falcons team is is night and day versus what we're going to see from this Lions team. And so Everow gave up the most points ever by DC two years ago. Still here, still the same scheme got absolutely ripped apart by an offense in week one. And then have played two mostly non functioning offenses in the two week sense and now they're at home to host the Lions. So this is a brutal scenario for this Panthers defense. Now the flip side of that is how bad is this going to be for the Lions defense because the Carolina Panthers have been playing faster than any other team in the league. They have the highest pass rate over expectation of any team in the league. Last week, the Carolina Panthers went into Cleveland, played outdoors on grass, all these scenarios where they typically struggle, put up 360 yards of offense, five yards per play. And that was doing so where Ted McMillan was erased by a very good man corner. And it was Bryce Young and this offense pivoting to throwing to Tremaine and Waller and Trimble tight ends, big wide receivers, that deep down field sideline passing attack that was doing so well in the first couple of weeks. Didn't work, but they were still able to have a very big game from it. Jalen Koker is practicing and has a chance to play in this game. So that's wide receiver number one next to Ted numbers wise. He's been number one back on the field. And this is a Lions defense that was desperately trying to get Joey Porter, Jr. Who has a lot of issues in their own right. Geno last week 31 for 37. Bryce Young and his Panthers offense, uh, certainly in that same caliber of opponent. Uh, we saw Tyler Schuck and week one, another Bryce Young Panthers S offensive caliber opponent have a very good game. Uh, week two Buffalo and Josh Allen, obviously not putting them in the same category, but it's not like the Lions are getting stops anywhere. And so I get all the rationale for why there's an over here. Uh, the question becomes weather wise. How does this start to look? Because it's 60% plus weather. The window for rain continues to move back and forth. That's something in this stadium, specifically for Detroit and indoor team that makes things a little bit mudier. Not only figuratively, but also literally as well. And so that's kind of keeping things at bay, just a little bit, um, at the moment. But this match up wise offense versus defense, plenty, plenty, plenty of opportunity. Then Monday, and I football the wrap up, I think this is going to be an absolutely fantastic game, both to watch and potentially bad. We'll see Falcons from a three and a half point underdog to a two and a half point underdog through the three. This has been Saints minus two and a half all week long, total from 45 and a half up to 48. All of these moves, the 45 and a half point total and the three and a half point spread were posted and adjusted after what we saw news wise with Michael Penex starting. So those look ahead. I'll be it guidelines more than anything concrete. We're assuming Penex was in and I say that because we've seen a big adjustment to the over and we've seen a big adjustment in favor of it. Atlanta. I think Atlanta looked far better than they are both on offense and defense against Green Bay on Thursday night football. This is not an offense that is 500 yards a game. You have an elite wide receiver and you have an elite running back with penics in with his arm strength and willingness to get the ball out. It elevates the floor. Very, very evident that this team is significantly better with him at quarterback. I don't think that's news to anybody, nor did anybody doubt that that was going to be the case. It's like, Kevin's defense he now has settled his offense. That's where it is. But defensively for Atlanta, like there are still issues, especially with AJ Tarell on IR. There's no pass rush here unless it is highly manufactured with a lot of blitzing and bringing extra guys. There's just no natural pass rush from Atlanta. So opposing quarterbacks are going to be very comfortable. And in this case, you would think Tyler Schuck is going to be very comfortable in the pocket. Even without his best offensive lineman, who's still out with injury. And so you expect here in this game that Schuck is going to be very comfortable in the pocket and have a lot of opportunity to be pushing the ball down field, specifically targeting Olave quite a bit. Unfortunately, at the end is injured, which means you're probably going to see a lot of Alvin Camarri in this game, which is, I think at this point, a negative for the Saints offense. This may be the game where he looks like him his old self and bounces back to form. But the last year plus has indicated that he is far past his time. There was very sharp money from Hitman and others on his prop number in week two. Got a ton of carries still fell under the yardage, which was like 18 or 19 and a half. Like it is bad for Camarri right now. And NTN was giving this offense really good balance. I know his last name pronunciation has changed. So you can dig me on that. It is what it is. But I think the Falcons defense really struggles here against the Saints. Now the question here for New Orleans is does the spot get too big for them? This is going to be an absolutely electric crowd. It is the 20 year anniversary of the dome coming post Katrina. Now there's a bit of backstory with this. Earlier this spring, Roger Gadel went to the head of scheduling and personally demanded according to the article that this game be put on this specific date on Monday night football with this specific matchup to celebrate 20 years after. And there was requests from Atlanta not to be included in this game in New Orleans, according to reporters on both sides of the story. They did not want to be a part of this game just because there was no reason giving. But like 10 years ago, they did the rematch of it. And it was just electric for the Saints and they beat the piss out of the Falcons if I remember correctly. And so it's 10 years later. It's just it's a tough it's a tough thing to overcome. Now I don't know exactly how this has happened or what the story behind it is. This goes beyond my knowledge. The ticket prices for this game at least to earlier in the week. I should have texted Jim and asked him, but they've been kept intentionally lower. And so I get the feeling like this is genuinely going to be like Saints fans rather than like some corporately boosted scenario. And these fans are some of the best in the league. And it's a rare occasion for the Saints now post breeze to get a game like this. And with all the history and all the storylines, I mean, the Saints social teams and PR teams are pushing this game last week before the Saints even took the field last week because it's such a big game for them at home. And so this is the biggest game for Kellen Moran is 10 years. The biggest game for Tyler Schuck in his tenure. And I get that the team is obviously detached from what happened. But everything around this game for the Saints at home as the media builds up and as they go through Monday. And certainly the crowd is is going to be out of hand. And so I think home field here, even with this being a divisional game is boosted significantly higher than it typically would be. And I do think that that is going to have an impact. And I do think that is going to matter on this game. And so if the Saints get their offense going early and can finally find the way to not being playing ketchup and get ahead, I think for penics in this offense as good as it looked against Green Bay, this becomes a much more difficult challenge for them to overcome and keep pace with. And so it's interesting to me to see this adjusted through the three income down. I fully get why the total is being bad up. But I'll be I'll be even with the at the end news like I'll be very surprised that the Saints don't get that at some point here between now and kick off. So every game on the board, I think some new listeners listening are going to go what to help you just flip flop to every game. This will be interesting to go forward. And if this is perfect for Spotify comments, let me know what you've thought of this show. You can message me on X anything. I know lots of people wanted the Friday preview show. And there's going to be some level of balance. My first priority is everybody on the newsletter who's gone out of their way to support me when it comes to sides and totals and write ups. Everything goes out to the newsletter first. The Monday morning podcast is not a big conflict for me because it's before I send everything out, which tends to be mid to late week as it is. And I don't tend to have too many glaring strong opinions. I know people listen to that show to just put everything that happened in Monday into context and get their head around it. And this is somewhat similar. There's some updated news, some updated reactions. And so if it's worth it, let me know if it was too much flip flopping or in the size of this. Let me know. Would love to know what you guys hear about this. Again, Denver. Number one or number two side for me this week. Really like that play quite a bit. Have a couple others that have gone out on the newsletter. I do think India three and a half. I would say probably gets bad against Washington that that over has certainly been noteworthy for the moves. Wish there was a little bit more with the jets perhaps to get interested. Houston's been the side for a lot of pros. But depending newsletter might see that come back the other way. Green Bay Tampa. Very interesting game. L.A. has been all pro money up to three and a half. Baltimore Minnesota two big favorites, but also two games with some revenge angles to go their way. Denver we talked about Kansas City Las Vegas and L.A. Seattle haven't seen much Detroit Carolina. Weather is going to impact that total. But certainly you would think both offenses have success. And then I just have to think the Saints end up perhaps getting bad. And so that will do it for me. Again, appreciate everybody listening. Appreciate all your feedback as well. I hope you have a fantastic NFL week number four. And I'll talk with each and every one of you late Sunday night early Monday morning for the Monday morning recap and preview show.