Four Big Stories: Emmys ’26, Summer Box Office Pushback, Fed Tax Credit Odds, and ‘60 Minutes’ 2.0
36m 53s
This episode examines the complexities behind Hollywood’s record-breaking summer box office, revealing that the apparent success is misleading when adjusted for inflation. Despite reported revenues reaching $4.76 billion, inflation-adjusted data shows a 17% decline compared to 2019, with attendance down 30%. The summer’s success is attributed to a few massive hits like *The Odyssey* and *Spider-Man*, rather than broad-based appeal, leading to a highly concentrated box office. Many other films failed to resonate, demonstrating a shift toward high-risk, high-reward releases. The rise of IMAX, while profitable for one film, does not signal a sustainable model, especially as flops like *Mandalorian* underperformed despite IMAX screenings. The episode also explores industry trends, including the political uncertainty around film tax credits, the commercial viability of A24’s diverse slate, and the controversial overhaul of *60 Minutes*. While A24’s five Oscar-contending films are generating buzz, *Prime Time* with Robert Pattinson is projected as the most commercially successful. Ultimately, the summer reflects a fragile, uneven recovery, where record revenues mask deeper structural issues in audience engagement, content quality, and economic sustainability. The show concludes with a critical assessment: the industry is not recovering, but merely adapting to a new, more volatile landscape.
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It is Tuesday, September 8th.
Welcome back to everyone who spent these summer in the Hamptons or on the yacht, or floating
in these sad little pool outside the apartment you share with three other assistants.
Right now, we all know that this summer said a new record for domestic box office.
The leader is grossed and estimated $4.76 billion from May 1st through Labor Day, according
to rent track.
That's 9% higher than the pre-COVID benchmark of 2019.
But when there's a big but here, when you adjust for inflation, the picture isn't quite
as rosy.
Adjusted the 2019 total rises to $5.7 billion, putting this summer 17% below that year.
In fact, higher ticket prices have masked a pretty steep decline in attendance.
New York Times reported this weekend that from January 1st through August 16th, domestic
theaters sold 568.4 million tickets.
That's down 30% from the same period in 2019.
They cited S&P Global Market Intelligence for that number.
That's 248 million fewer buts and seats.
The question I'm interested in is, does that actually matter?
After all, theater ticket prices are increasing along with inflation.
The average is now at $12.75 for a regular ticket in the U.S.
And IMAX is charging about $20 a ticket.
In fact, a big source of the revenue increases those premium, large format tickets.
So we're going to get into the box office question with Lucas Shaw, our Monday guy.
We also touched today on the federal production tax credit issue.
We talked about last week.
Lucas is a little less bullish than I am on that subject.
The Emmys race ahead of the prime time show this week and it's a fresh start for 60 minutes
and CBS news.
But, does anyone in the real world actually care?
What's going on?
So it's a grab bag episode from the ringer and puck.
I'm Matt Bellany and this is The Town.
All right, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg.
Welcome back, Lucas.
Excited to see you at Toronto this weekend.
I think the first time I've been in a while, first time we will have seen each other
there.
What are your tips?
Well, I'm going to see the Oscar movies.
That's my whole game.
Plus, go to as many after parties with the best finger foods as possible.
But mostly catching up on the Oscar movies, which we're getting a better sense of.
I'm doing a sit down with the head of search light, Matthew Greenfield, which hopefully
you'll attend.
I thought I was participating.
You are.
You are available, though, are you available?
Yeah.
We've talked about this.
All right.
You're confirming right now.
You will also be there.
Get your tickets now.
I don't know what time or where, but I'll be there.
It's noon on Saturday at the convention center.
So come and see The Town Live with Matthew Greenfield and Lucas.
So, but they're coming back early for the Emmys on Monday.
Are you going to the Emmys?
I am not.
I have a wedding in Rhode Island in that weekend.
So I sadly will miss the full weekend.
But the best thing about the Emmys is you just get to see like 100 people over the course
of a weekend, catch up, figure out who you want to then get lunch with or get drinks
with or whatever it may be.
Totally.
I always come away with good story ideas, too.
So it's a good one-stop shop for that kind of stuff.
Interesting narratives of the Emmys this year, because we had the first two nights, they
do the Emmys and three nights now.
There are so many categories.
But after the first two nights, the scorecard is Apple TV with 19 wins, HBO Max with 16
wins, Netflix only 13 wins, which is interesting given all of the churn and news articles about
Netflix and the kind of malaise in their content over the past few months.
This could be a very disappointing night for Netflix.
Yeah, well, they have lost ground at the Emmys for a little while now, right?
If you go back, they actually once got kind of beat HBO in terms of the number of nominations,
they won Best Drama Series, I think once.
The crown.
Yeah, with the crown.
They've been pretty consistent in competing for limited, but HBO has sort of, has sustained
its advantage as the big winner for the most part, other than no one.
Although last year they tied, last year they tied, but Netflix, but why the creative arts
is interesting is I feel like Netflix wins a lot of the awards that are not during the
broadcast.
Totally.
They stack that number.
Netflix gets a lot of nominations across a lot of different shows and a lot of different
categories.
And that kind of inflates the number a little bit relative to the wins during the prime
time show, to some extent, although they won the third most prime time last year behind
HBO and Apple.
So they look HBO Apple and Netflix are the kind of the three biggest players at this.
I guess the question to me is less about Netflix because they don't have the same number
of sort of high profile, like I think their most nominated show is beef.
It is Apple going to take one of these categories away from HBO because I think going in, people
assumed, oh, the pit and hacks will repeat.
And it's looking like maybe Widow's Bay will beat hacks this year.
And that will annoy Casey Bloyes to know and because of the whole Apple is the new HBO
narrative.
Yes.
And Apple does win a lot more per capita for the shows that they have.
And they are very keen to point that out.
Remember HBO didn't win last year, Studio One, that was Apple for best series, for comedy
series.
So, hacks hasn't won in a couple of years and I think they are all expecting to win for
the final season and of Widow's Bay beats them out, which I believe I predicted on this
show a couple of weeks ago.
That would be a big deal.
So we shall see, we're not talking about the Emmys today.
We're talking about other news topics, including the box office.
I know we did an episode about this with Scott on Friday, but the final numbers came out
this weekend.
And it was pretty interesting to see the coverage because yes, it is a record showing for Hollywood.
Yeah, but these records are bullshit.
They are.
So let's talk about the bullshit nature of these records because I've been saying this
for years yet I am also part of the problem because I am too lazy to go in and put every
number into the inflation meter to say, okay, if we're going to compare summer 2019 to
summer 2026, you got to go to the website and type in that number and do the inflation
math because if you do that math, it shows that box office this summer is down 17 percent
from 2019, not the record that everybody has been trumpeting.
The records are problematic for a lot of reasons.
One, to your point is inflation, which is yes, but for whatever reason, it may be out of
laziness.
We never compare to inflation and because the industry does not want to account for inflation,
of course not.
But the data providers do not say, here's the number, here's the actual number and then
here's the inflation adjusted number.
But also, it struck me that they were sort of playing some games with the number of days
in summer.
Well, there's an extra week of summer this year because Labor Day falls later.
So there you go.
Right.
So that's the only reason it was a record summer, which is not the concern that I have and
that you're raising and that I and others have written about is that people will draw
the wrong conclusion from this and say the business is back.
This is what we were telling you all about.
Everything is hunky-dory when the picture is just more complicated than that.
You can both say it was a really good summer and the business is smaller than it used to
be.
Yeah.
And people go to fewer movies than they used to.
Yes.
Look at how the box office was distributed this summer, it was arguably more top-heavy
than ever.
Even though we had five non-franchised movies, gross more than $100 million.
So we had the Odyssey, Obsession, Michael, Backrooms, and Disclosure Day, all gross $100
million and more, yet the percentage of box office that came from two movies, the Odyssey
and Spider-Man Brand New Day, don't say it.
I know.
You have both in the box office draft.
We are no longer talking about the box office draft.
It is dead to me.
Didn't say any.
See you in 2027.
But the box office was so top-heavy on those three four big titles that it's like, isn't
the comeback that everybody's saying it is?
Or?
where they're just a couple of super appealing titles.
- But I just think that that's what the business is
in a lot of ways, where you either are gonna have movies
that are massive, massive hits,
among the highest grossing movies ever,
because once people wanna be part of something,
it starts to get this momentum in culture
where I was surprised I talked with my mom over the weekend
and she went to see the Spider-Man movie
'cause I had told her, I was like,
this one's actually pretty good.
My mom does not go to see superhero movies, right?
Or the Odyssey gets this momentum
because everyone is talking about it
and wants to see it in the right format.
- Or obsession with young people.
- But that means there's all these other big movies
like Disclosure Day, like Mandalorian, like Supergirl,
where the floor for those titles
is just so much lower than it used to be, right?
They will just be dead on arrival
and nobody, once they get bad reviews and bad press
about how poorly they're doing commercially,
the bottom just falls out.
And they gross 100 million, 200 million
instead of being one of those that's four or five
or it's like it's a disappointment, but it's okay.
- Yeah, it's so interesting how much
the financial performance of films
has become part of the quality narrative these days.
I mean, I'm old enough to remember
when nobody knew how movies did.
Literally, you had to look on page four
of the LA Times on Tuesdays to see a tiny little box.
- Sure, or you'd get the entertainment weekly box office report
and yeah, on like page 75 or whatever it was.
- Exactly, and now, Friday afternoon,
we get those new numbers and they're all over social media
and the movies are just DOA.
- Yeah.
But that speaks to this kind of FOMO aspect of movie going
where if it's a thing, you kind of gotta see it now
and in theaters and if it's not a thing,
doesn't matter what the right and tomato score is,
you don't have to see it.
- Right, or you'll watch it when it's on Netflix
or HBO Max or whatever it does.
The other underrated aspect that is really pumping things up
is that there were more wide releases this year.
I mean, we had 40 movies that opened on at least 2000 screens
this summer.
Last summer, there were 34.
So there you go, more movies, more box office.
- Yes, but you would hope that that would be sustainable.
I mean, we'll see what happens, obviously,
with Paramount and all that stuff.
But there's no reason people felt like
there were not enough movies being released.
And so if you get better results from releasing more movies,
wouldn't this the lesson be?
We should release 40 movies a summer instead of 34?
- Yeah, that would be, but obviously,
you wanna release the good ones, the popular ones.
But my point is we talk a lot about the top 10 grocers
and the movies that are driving the box office.
But in reality, more swings equals more aggregate box office
and even some of these movies that are quote unquote flops,
like Mandalorian or Supergirl or Moana,
that's still a few hundred million dollars
that gets added to the total.
So it's not a great business for the studio
that's releasing the movie, but it's a decent number
for the theaters, and they will take those flops.
- Yeah, well, the theaters care about having volume
and diversity of slate, right?
- It's very bad for them if it's too top-heavy.
They need to have it be distributed
'cause that's creating a habit and a reason
for everyone to come in.
- Yeah, I know, it'll be interesting
to see what happens with this standoff that A24 is having.
Did you see that a couple of the theater chains
didn't play the recent Tony movie
because A24 is demanding higher splits
and they were just like, excuse me, you're not dizzy.
We're not gonna play this game.
We're okay if we don't play the Tony movie.
- I mean, A24 has a strong brand,
but I don't know that it's strong enough
to push around a theater chain.
- And this was a theater chain in Arizona, Harkins.
So it's not gonna hurt them that much.
It's not like it's New York City or LA theaters
that overindexed with A24 movies,
but that's definitely something to watch.
The other narrative from the summer box office
is the whole IMAX narrative.
Because on the one hand,
the fact that they are basking in the glory of the Odyssey
and that one movie can generate more than $200 million
in domestic ticket sales from IMAX,
which is like 35% of the film's total domestic total.
But, and they only had about 11% of the screens
according to The New York Times,
but there were a number of movies this year
that were IMAX kind of plugged,
that IMAX was going all in on, that flopped.
Mandalorian being one of them.
That was a big IMAX movie.
They got the screens and it didn't work.
So I feel like the Odyssey sort of papered over
what was potentially not a great summer for IMAX.
- Well, I don't know, the movie business
is a business of hits and misses.
I don't know that you could say.
It was unequivocally a good summer for IMAX.
That doesn't, the question would be,
does that mean that IMAX is a great business,
is super valuable that someone should come
and that someone should come and pay a lot?
Or is it dependent on having those two or three movies a year
that people are really excited about, right?
- I know, they need to sell now.
- Between Odyssey and Dune, now's the time.
- This would be the moment to do it.
And, you know, before WandaVision.
It's not WandaVision, it's called Infinity Vision.
WandaVision was a show.
- It's a TV show.
- I know, I know, I know.
(laughing)
Or unless you're renaming it, WandaVision right now.
That would actually-- - They should rename it.
They should rename it WandaVision.
Nobody wants an Infinity Vision.
(laughing)
I know, Infinity Vision is gonna come
and take all their money.
They might as well sell now.
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- Give this summer a score.
If you were grading this summer,
is it an A plus?
Is it an A minus?
Is it a B plus?
I think it's a solid egg.
Yeah, I think it's probably an A.
It's hard to be, I was debating A minus,
but no, I think it's an A.
But not an A plus.
- We're a great inflation here.
We're okay, we're an Ivy League school.
Everybody gets an A.
No, but this is a solid summer,
but I agree that the attendance numbers overall
still not great.
Irreversible, frankly.
- Agreed.
All right, separate topic.
I have a feeling, I'm gonna make a prediction here.
I have a feeling you are not as bullish
on the likelihood of a film production tax credit
as I have been on this show.
Even with the Donald Trump endorsement,
even with a courted effort here.
- So when you say bullish,
that's because you believe it will happen.
You believe it will happen by the end of the year.
You believe timing is subject to the whim
of politics, you know, the house isn't even voting
very often until, or isn't even in session,
very often until the midterms here.
So I don't know about the timing,
but I do think before the new Congress is seated,
we could have something that is either voted on.
- Well, that's before the end of the year.
They're seated early next year.
- Yeah, we could have something that's either voted on
or about to be voted on or something like that.
The point is this is now a bipartisan effort
endorsed by the president.
- Do you think this will happen?
- I do with the caveat that there are still
a decent number of kind of prominent industry figures
that I speak with who remain skeptical.
- And what are their skepticism's rooted in?
- That there's not really a constituency for this bill.
- What are you talking about?
The head of the MPA said it's for all 50 states.
It's going to lift all boats, employment for everybody.
- Yeah, I just don't, I think there's a feeling,
there's still a feeling that giving tax break to. Hollywood will be hard for a lot of I get the Trump coming out in favor makes it easier
But will be hard not something that Republicans want to get behind
You know, it's easy to say, you know, okay, you get you know tax breaks to movie stars
Talks tax breaks to Hollywood fat cats, especially when you get into the particulars of
Some of what is needed as as you and others have written about that it just won't be a priority and
And and certainly when you know after the election and you have kind of a new Congress next year
And I think most people assume that the Democrats will flip one of the houses
If not both it gets even more complicated. I don't know that I don't even know that all the all the Democrats are are behind it
No, I think though like you know some of the Bernie Sanders millionaires and billionaires crowd might not be into this
But I do think that something will pass the question I have is what I wrote about in my Puck newsletter last week is that
There are certain things that this bill does need to have to be effective and you know those include having you know
full refundability
Stacking on top of so the 20% if it's 20% is now on top of whatever is provided the above the line
Credit because that's the reason that all of these productions go to the UK is that star salaries are subsidized
And that is the toughest sell to any of these jurisdictions and why credits in places like California
Don't have above the line subsidies because they don't want to explain to their constituents why they're subsidizing Tom Cruise
But you got to have it to be effective when you say you're confident are you
personally whipping votes are you yes, have you spoken to people to get a sense of like what where the votes lie?
Or is it is it more just a sense if the president is voicing support and sort of shielding Republicans
There that there will be enough people on both sides to want to make it happen because it is seen as a job creation bill
Yes, I think it's both then I talked to Laura Friedman who is the congresswoman from Los Angeles that has been spearheading this and
She's been doing this work for a year now trying to get consensus
I know all the organizations have as well the MPA the film USA people that were on the show last week a lot of people have been doing the unions
so there this has been a process and I do think that there are enough Republicans in some of these key areas like
Georgia and Louisiana and
New Jersey and places like that that would benefit significantly new Mexico that I do think that they at least feel they have
This coalition, but again, I'm more worried about the contours of what it says because as we know in legislation you make compromises and if you have to make
So many compromises to get this deal through Congress
It ultimately becomes meaningless because it does it has no teeth. It's something that you know
We'll be nice maybe to save a few productions, but it's not going to save the Marvel productions
It's not going to save Harry Potter. It's not going to save any of these other productions that are getting above the line costs from the UK
They are the enemy the UK is the enemy here and Canada. What about Eastern Europe?
Eastern Europe exactly and we know that they're taking the seriously because according to my reporting
These jurisdictions are calling their US consultants and lawyers
asking about what's going on here and fearful and anxious about what could get past because they know the UK film industry is
thriving right now not because the UK is producing more great movies
It's because something like 80 80 something percent of the investment in the UK production
Community right now is coming from America and they know that that's not that is a false hope because that could be taken away
In a second if the US gets its act together, you are going to get your drink poison that the next bastard brunch
You just declared the UK the enemy you're about to go to Canada you declared them the enemy or someone's going to punch you at this taping on Saturday
I know we need to have a tea party at least it's so hard to know what will pass in
Contemporary DC it just does not feel like a bill that would be a top priority for most of these folks who are up for election
But obviously it'd be great for the industry if they if they got their act together last topic big 60 minutes from here this Sunday
I know you are counting down the days until you can watch the new revamped Trump billionaire approved
60 minutes
They put out a statement this morning about the new season. They did an interview with the New York Times talking about how they're making big
Changes Nick built in the executive producer they got they're getting rid of the book you're no longer going to be seeing the book
Flip open to reveal the stories which I kind of liked it was nice little throwback, but no Anderson Cooper
No Scott Pelley a bunch of people we have never seen before
What do you think the whole pitch from
Barry Weiss and Nick built in had little to do with the broadcast that you see
on CBS if my understanding was a lot of it is we need to modernize it and make it bigger make it more
I mean maybe a little bit making the the core show appealing to young people, but also like leveraging online marketing and distribution in a way to build
The audience there and so the goal with the primary show should be like
Make it a little better, but don't fuck it up and like find ways to you know
Clip effectively leverage leverage you to minstagram etc. And none of which is what I see them
Talking about right now
These sort of like modest tweaks to the show itself like
Fine, well, they don't say modest they say Nick built in says that every aspect of the show is going to be different
They're not doing walk-in talks anymore. They're not like the presentation of 60 minutes will be different and from my perspective
Like take out the politics stuff and it's caused everybody to go nuts
this is a prime example of
Scrooing around with something that was working
In the TV landscape 60 minutes is still the number one broadcast even though it was down slightly
Last year it's still by far the number one broadcast and the ratings are mostly influenced by football in the afternoon. So like
Why they haven't answered the question of why they are doing this
Unless there's other things like increasing the digital footprint and things that we have not seen yet
I just don't think you're suddenly gonna get a bunch of 20-year-olds to tune in
To 60 minutes on Sunday evening, right? So your Sunday evening show
You should just continue to satisfy the audience that you have and try to grow the digital audio or try to grow a young audience using other channels
Yeah, although the one thing they have said they're gonna do which I support is have more
Experts doing their stories the whole formula for 60 minutes has always been that you take
These every man correspondence and you put them into these extraordinary situations or have them talk to
powerful people
It works most of the time, but there are some moments on 60 minutes where it gets cringey where you have Leslie Stahl
Talking to Mark Zuckerberg or things where they're clearly just not savvy enough to
Deliver and hopefully they will they will get more
Experts doing these stories when I said modest earlier
It was because if I understood Nick building's comments correctly
There were sort of a series of minor or smaller changes that in aggregate would make the show feel
Appreciably different, right? They're not completely reinventing what the show is or how it works
There are just there are both visual and narrative aspects of it. They are changing
And I guess the question will be are those things that will alienate
The kind of existing audience, right? Which is kind of like
56 honestly like 65 plus viewers who stick around after football
Or not and if it doesn't alienate then it'll probably continue to rate and maybe they'll make the show better
Maybe they won't I don't know that it'll matter
Tremendously either way, but to me the question is Kim can
Barian Nick deliver on their promise to like make it more relevant to young people
Which is not going to be accomplished with changes to the live television broadcast?
Yeah, and they're doing a Rams segment
So that'll be a nice you know tune in moment for football
They're doing something on the one of the soldiers that was shot down over Iran
So that's an exclusive they haven't announced the final
Segment for this week. We'll see if it's about you know how Israel is winning the war in Gaza or something like that
Then we'll know what's really up here. The exclusive BB Netanyahu interview featuring Barry White
Exactly
Last year's season premiere 10 million viewers over under for this year. What is the Sunday CBS game packers Vikings by the way
Not about not a bad game
That's tricky my my my my head says
Under because all these things are shrinking maybe some lucky lose though
Well, that's what I was gonna say what you don't this has become a thing
That's the thing is that they they have so politicized all of this that random viewers of 60 minutes now know
That a Trump billionaire has installed an idea log to run the show and that there will be changes
So does that to do people tune out or do they tune in to see if it's different
You think that the noise is loud enough that this has penetrated the kind of this is not
just a media story, this is a. - I would, normally I would agree
that this is only something the media talks about,
but I do think this has permeated the culture.
Like my parents know about this.
And it's become something that I think
60 minutes is such a well-known property
and it's permeated to the regular media
that this has been taken over by the Ellisons.
So I do think that people know about this.
- And by people, you mean people over 60 years old,
unless Alex Cooper is interviewing you
unless young people aren't gonna watch it, I understand.
But I think enough 60 minutes fans do know about this.
I don't know whether they care,
but they have heard about this.
- See, I think a lot of this drama around it
is gonna end up having limited impact on the viewership
because it's just sort of like a loyal audience
that tunes into 60 minutes and the only thing
that'll change it is if they start to notice things
change so dramatically that they don't like it.
- So give me the over under, on 10 million.
I'll go under.
- I'll take the over.
- Look, you lose.
- Probably right.
- All right, Lucas, thank you.
- Thanks Matt.
- All right, we are back with a call sheet, Craig.
Are you sad now that we did not go to the Telluride Film Festival
where we could have fast in the glory
of the Nathan Fielder Elizabeth Holmes movie?
- I have to say, I was intrigued.
Nathan Fielder knows how to capture an audience.
- He does know how to do a stunt better than everybody
because this movie, if it had just had a normal rollout,
documentary with Elizabeth Holmes, sure, interesting.
But you do a surprise screening at the Telluride Film Festival
and get all the awards, sick of fans in one room
and they go completely nuts over the movie,
which the reviewers say is very good.
I can't wait to see it.
But I think we need to hold our horses here
and like not declare this movie best picture quite yet.
- Well, the Fielder has his like true fans
and I'm one of them, but yeah,
I feel like it never usually goes full mainstream.
There might be like a couple memes that hit,
but his stuff is always a little bit more niche-sizing people thing.
- Totally, and he couldn't even get Emmys.
I mean, he got some nominations,
but like it's not like his TV show,
the rehearsal with this Emmy juggernaut
and people are like declaring this thing,
the first documentary that's gonna contend
for best picture.
It's like, okay, let's wait a little bit.
But the interesting thing here is that's an A24 movie
and it's turning out that A24 has like five big Oscar-style
movies coming in the next like three months.
So they have, you can see everything,
which is the Nathan Fielder one that's coming in October.
They've got prime time, the Robert Pattinson
as Chris Hanson movie that I'm very excited to see.
Hilariously Jeff Zucker, the former NBC head who's in the movie.
He showed up in Venice.
Chris Gardner at THR interviewed him on the carpet in Venice.
I was like, what?
What is going on?
Why would Jeff Zucker go to a movie that he's in
for 20 seconds, go to Venice?
But I guess he wanted to bask in the limelight.
They've got Misty Green, which is the Chris Rock directed movie
that is premiering at Toronto and is supposed to be good.
It's like a Hollywood satire.
They've got Club Kid, which was the big breakout of Cannes,
which is the Jordan Firstman movie.
He's from I love LA.
This is his big breakout that they paid a lot of money for at Cannes.
And then they've got the debut,
which is the Jesse Eisenberg movie
with Paul Giamatti and Julianne Moore
that got great reviews in Venice.
So it's interesting here that they're going to have to choose
amongst all of these different awards players.
And I'm going to make a prediction here.
I don't want to talk about the quality.
I want to talk about the box office appeal here.
What do you think is going to be the breakout hit?
If you had to predict of these five movies,
which is going to gross the most worldwide for a 24?
- Man, I would probably say prime time with Pattinson.
I would probably say prime time one, the debut at number two.
- We have some tracking on it.
It's at 12 million for opening weekend.
It's coming out later this month.
And I think that movie has a chance to catch on
and get to maybe 50, maybe 60,
but I don't think any of these other movies
is going to do much business at all.
I mean, Jesse Eisenberg's last movie,
a real pain, it cost $8 million in this country,
25 million worldwide.
And I know a 24 as higher hopes for that,
but you could see everything at the end of the day.
It's a documentary.
Those movies do not tend to do very well.
And Mr. Green, like Chris Rock, huge talent,
but it's got an unknown in the starring role,
not an unknown, but she's not Rosalind Eliezer.
She is not a marquee name.
And then you've got Club Kid,
which is niche kind of art house movie.
So a 24 for all of its box office aspirations,
I think the best chance here
is probably getting some Robert Pattinson love for prime time.
- I agree.
I think it's a combination of Pattinson being
like the only younger bankable star in this slate,
the movie seems to have a lot of buzz on line already.
I know that doesn't always translate,
but this type of like topic I think is sticky enough
to get people to go to the theater to see it.
- Yeah, my worry is that it becomes an internet thing,
like where people on Twitter and social media love prime time,
but then real audiences are like,
why do I care about Chris Hanson?
- That's usually the case.
Usually the things that are popping on Twitter
is not real life.
- I know, and that'll be the problem
with you can see everything.
Also, I'm rooting for that one.
I think Nathan Fielder's hilarious.
He should come on the town.
He really should.
I would like to know everything about this movie,
but he probably won't, because that is,
he can't subvert us.
He can't go on, like he went on CNN
and had the Kairan call him a pilot.
He can't do that on the town.
- Right, you and Nathan would be an interesting,
it's like an immovable object versus an unstoppable force.
I would like to see who kind of beats the other one out.
I will go on, I will have him on the town
and then we'll just talk aviation safety for 30 minutes.
- Sure, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- All right, that's the show for today.
I want to take my guests.
Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horoback,
artist Jesse Lopez, and Stephanie Losanchez,
and I want to thank you.
We'll see you a couple more times this week.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The domestic box office recorded a record $4.76 billion in summer 2026, but when adjusted for inflation, it is actually 17% lower than 2019, indicating a declining audience and not a true recovery.
The box office became more top-heavy, driven by a few major hits like *The Odyssey* and *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, while many other films, including *Mandalorian* and *Supergirl*, underperformed or flopped, highlighting a shift toward high-risk, high-reward releases.
The film industry faces structural challenges, including declining attendance, rising ticket prices, and a growing reliance on premium formats like IMAX—where one film generated over $200M in ticket sales on just 11% of screens—raising concerns about sustainability and true market health.
Summary:
This episode examines the complexities behind Hollywood’s record-breaking summer box office, revealing that the apparent success is misleading when adjusted for inflation. 76 billion, inflation-adjusted data shows a 17% decline compared to 2019, with attendance down 30%. The summer’s success is attributed to a few massive hits like *The Odyssey* and *Spider-Man*, rather than broad-based appeal, leading to a highly concentrated box office.
Many other films failed to resonate, demonstrating a shift toward high-risk, high-reward releases. The rise of IMAX, while profitable for one film, does not signal a sustainable model, especially as flops like *Mandalorian* underperformed despite IMAX screenings. The episode also explores industry trends, including the political uncertainty around film tax credits, the commercial viability of A24’s diverse slate, and the controversial overhaul of *60 Minutes*.
While A24’s five Oscar-contending films are generating buzz, *Prime Time* with Robert Pattinson is projected as the most commercially successful. Ultimately, the summer reflects a fragile, uneven recovery, where record revenues mask deeper structural issues in audience engagement, content quality, and economic sustainability. The show concludes with a critical assessment: the industry is not recovering, but merely adapting to a new, more volatile landscape.
FAQs
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No, when adjusted for inflation, the 2026 summer box office is actually down 17% compared to 2019. The record figures are misleading due to rising ticket prices and a significant drop in movie attendance.
The box office is more top-heavy, with a few major hits dominating revenue. Attendance has declined 30% since 2019, and many films, especially those with lower marketing, have failed to meet expectations.
The bill has bipartisan support and is seen as a job creation measure, with backing from key states like Georgia and Louisiana. However, success depends on including full refundability and stacking credits, which are essential for real industry impact.
The new season features major changes, including new presenters and a shift in format, with a focus on digital engagement. However, it may not significantly attract younger viewers, as the core audience remains loyal to the show’s established style.
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