FORWARDS! - Top 6, Breakout Contenders and Mid-Priced Value! #PODPOD

(upbeat music) - Good day and welcome to the pod pod, brought to you by Marrayr's magic. I'm your host, Homesy, two time runner up in AFL Fantasy Classic and three times, top 10. We are back for our final positional preview of the preseason before origin starts, match sim starts and official practice matches and we quick creep up towards round one, which is super, super exciting. We don't have Jordy on deck tonight but we do have, as always, a staple of the pod pod, two time top 10 finisher and runner up in 2019. John Harmy here to talk nothing about, sorry, nothing, but Tim Kelly, John. Hello, host, Homesy. Yeah, so I've been waiting weeks and weeks for this so it should be a good opportunity to talk up to you again. The number one midfielder at West Coast. - Yeah, look, we are gonna get to lose top six forwards in a little bit and you might find that he's a notable omission but I do believe you have him ranked as the seventh highest forward army so I'm looking forward to that sell. But Louis, I did mention, we do have the perennial top one, K finisher here, ready to give us the top six in a little bit and discuss all things forwards, Louis. Thanks for jumping on, how are you? - I'm well, thanks mate and excited to talk forwards. I'm glad that we left this one for last because I think just in the last couple of weeks there's maybe been a little bit more clarity. Perhaps some information has come out where just starting to gain a little bit of confidence in some of these forward picks. So I'm sure we'll delve into that today and yeah, very excited. - Yeah, we deliberately left this one to last just because we wanted as much of the preseason to unfold so we can gather a little bit more information that would have been pretty pointless talking about this all the way back in the start of January. But before we get into that, there are some sort of hot topic news items that we need to just alert the community of just in case they're not all over the Twitter. Louis and the first one came out announced today actually. So Jack Viny has been dealing with that Achilles injury and the back injury for the entire preseason and he actually went in for surgery today. So he's a long, long way off. And when you combine that with Petracher and Oliver Leving, the core of that midfield is just gonna be completely different. So where does your mind go straight away? Because we all assumed Viny would get to the line and partner Jack still alongside what bearing round one. So yeah, I mean, there's a few new names that spring to mind immediately. I think probably the last man standing, certainly from last year is Cosy Pickett who may get a mention in this top six. But I think there's a couple that are probably gonna have a little bit more opportunity, some names which we've been a little bit hyped before in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Trent Rivers potentially get into there and attend some more set of bounces. I think a Harvey Langford has probably been spoken about a little bit in terms of his potential. But the cupboard is bare. We might even be seeing like an Ed Langdon or somebody go into that midfield and sort of hold it down just for a little bit while the troops return. But Jay, there's not many left, is there? - Yeah, Farah, they're coming to a cliff. Melbourne, surely. We've been looking at it for a few years now and now we're able to hold on with some of their guns and none bigger than Max Gorn that Farah out there. I think they're gonna struggle this year at least to start the season. Harvey, in that same team, Jai Cully, Broken Arm or Broken Shoulder, whatever it was. So he's gonna be off for a little bit now. So you'd assume he's not gonna be a fantasy option for us as a mid-prior priced option to start the year. This one's interesting though. So George Wardlaw, Hammy. Now, Hammy for George Wardlaw is just something we've become accustomed to. Now, it was reported today that it's probably not as bad as they first thought and he still a chance for round one. But what do you think that does to the North midfield? - I still think that they will want him in there as soon as he's fit and firing. So it may just be a short-term stop cap measure where they'll play a look-parker, a bit more in there or something like that, I think, and I think we'll see a major change. I think that they said it's on the lower side of the hamstring injuries. So they'll be hoping to get him back in four to six weeks. I'd say. - Lloyd, do you think, sorry, we did kind of skip over the Melbourne carpet. Jack Steele, I know you've been one of the bigger haters there, just with the way he plays the game and how it's all sort of speeding up and seems to be going away from these inside big-body midfielders. But surely that just cemented him now with no Jack Viny as that 80, 85% CBA guy that just does all of the grunt work in that midfield. - Yeah, I was gonna say, a bit of a glaring omission there. I'm just looking at some of the center bounces from last season. But Jack Steele went over to the days late in their trade period and he's gonna be playing midfield. He said as much that he left St. Kielder because he realized he's really just a midfielder only. And what a spot to sort of land, give it all these injuries. I think you're right. I think he's going to be probably the staple within that midfield. He's going to be attending every single centabouts, every single stoppage. Let's be honest. I've been a hater in the past. I just think he's a little bit slow. I don't think he's particularly skillful either, but it comes to a point now where there's just nobody there and I think they're really going to have a reliance on him to at least try and be competitive in those stoppages. So I'm expecting Jack Steele to really fire off the back of that. I think potentially based on what Melbourne sort of score as a team is probably where he gets affected most because the opportunity is just 100% going to be there. But now I've probably got him a little bit higher up my list in terms of fantasy options now, just given all of this news recently. As the bombers man, we've spoken at length in this podcast already over the preseason about Jai Caldwell and what he can do in a midfield role. But we know he's injury prone and these things happen and there was reports of a Jai, Nian and missing some match sim. Does if you were interested in Caldwell, does this just give you a little bit of doubt there or did you just see it as part of the preseason and if you are just as bullish on Caldwell before that nothing should really change? Yeah, but we're still a little way off friend. One aren't we with the bombers player. So I wouldn't be too deterred. I thought it was a contact injury and they were just being conservative within. But I did hear today he was still training with strapping so I'm not training fully. So something you definitely have to keep an eye on if you can to start him because as not as if he's coming in price at 80 is coming in price over 100. So you'd want to be very confident in him. Few other names here that a couple fantasy relevant but a couple not. So Mark Keen, Louis that broken leg looked quite nasty considering the fact that he just looked at it and tried to pop it back in. Not fantasy relevant but who knows does that open up a defensive spot for someone in that Adelaide backline? Does one of their distributors maybe play a little bit taller? Look for opportunity there. Sean Darcy the calf injury another two weeks on the sideline. So any hope of just a quick little one week and then back to preseason as normal I think for Darcy even if he does play mid minutes in the practice matches he's going to be heavily managed. So I think that completely rules him out as an option as much of a truth or as I wanted to be. Bo Addencil from Gold Coast so pick 18, high grade Hammy so he'll miss six weeks. So that's another rookie option that they were kind of talking up in the preseason but he won't be there for us round zero and round one anyway so you can scratch him off the list. And boys I'm gonna I didn't put this one in there. So I want you guys whoever put this in the run sheet needs to talk about this one. Zach Williams playing in defense as a forward price at 61. Oh no, who chucked that in the run sheet? You like put that in there because we're talking about forwards and I noticed that Lou didn't have it anywhere. But I found it interesting you know like this price at 61 he's bloody cheap pretty because he just sits up forward these days and does stuff for but if there's opportunity on that back flank possibly something we need to have a look at. Yeah I actually looked into him as some of my research for for Selby's season guide and the interesting thing was he actually started getting some CBAs last year. Now they weren't massive by any means but there was there was games where he got thrown in as a bit of an impact mid and that didn't really help his scoring. I think Zach Williams the days of him being a score over but yeah, homie price at 61 you'd have to look at it. You've obviously got Newman hopefully returning back there. They've recruited Florent. They do like Holy Hollins back there. So who really knows but yeah don't mind the little flag there. Hello, let's get stuck into the forwards and what we're going to do is we're going to start with your projected top six forwards and that's going to start a bit of a conversation about how many of these guys we do want to start. It's been well documented that the value in the forward line is probably something we're going to need a hunt this year because of the lack of options but I do typically like to start one or maybe two of the top end if they present value. So let's go through your projected top six forwards and get the conversation started. Yep, no worries. So I've got a list here. I've got a couple of dot points. I'm just going to read these off. So apologies if I sound a little bit robotic, but after today I've not got a lot of mental bandwidth left. So we'll run with this. Rank one I've got at as Harry Sheasel. I don't think this is going to come as a surprise to anybody. It's been an absolute fantasy gun since he debuted. He's done a lot of scoring off of half back in the years previous, but has started to attend some more center bounces and is spending a little bit more time forward a center as well. Had 50% CBAs eight times last season for a return of 117, but admittedly that does include a 186. But that's a testament to his ceiling and his option as a captain. So if we're starting a 109 averaging player to begin with, we certainly want to have that confidence that he's got a ceiling to be able to put the VC or see on top of him. Sorry, Lou, just before he jump on, let's just have a bit of a chat about Sheasel because it's a hot topic in the preseason, right? Like we preach value, value, value, and yes, with the CBA midfield role, he could potentially be value, but more often than not, we see players priced at 109, 110 plus often regressed back. Let's talk a little bit about ownership. So the ownership that I'm going to rattle off here is actually adjusted ownership. So the bit in that guys on Twitter, if you're not following them, go and check them out. They do some great stuff. They talk about adjusted ownership versus what the ownership is on the fantasy website. Now, without going too nerdy in depth here, the adjusted ownership is adjusted ownership for teams that are complete. So the ownership on the fantasy website, that takes into account every single team. So whether a player is just logged in and has their team blank or whether they feel their team in. So adjust the ownership is more accurate. As it stands right now, Sheasel is in 87% of completed AFL fantasy side. So if you're going against Harry Sheasel, you're in the 13% at the moment that don't own him. So is there a chance? Is there some game theory here where you go against a Harry Sheasel? I mean, if you're looking for a point of difference, that's certainly up in lights, isn't it? At 87% ownership, I had no idea it was quite that high. Look, Holmes, I'd love to throw it back to you on this one. Personally, I think, if you're looking for value, yes, you could look elsewhere. I do think the forward line has been a tough line, certainly at the upper end here to select from. And just given that ceiling and I think just given his role at North Melbourne, we obviously know how important he is. I think even to say that he's going to be playing more midfield is probably not accurate. I think what would be accurate is that he's going to be around the ball, hence his sort of importance to that team. So I think he's only getting better. I can see it's not often you can point to some upside in a guy that's priced at 109, but I think he really is sort of the key to that side and their improvement. And I think he's just going to go to where sort of they need him to be in order to sort of advance the 44 and get some scoreboard pressure. Yeah, look, I think there are a lot of reasons why you would be starting Shezel, but I have had teams drafted without him in at Holmes'y. So I'll just give you a few names. You would just be relying on the upside of somebody that is going to score close to the top of the line and still be making money and averaging quite a bit more than what they're coming in priced at. So you would need to see a lot from somebody like Jordan DeGoe, Jail Frazier, yeah, Joshua Shelley, that sort of player I think in order to remove Shezel and put somebody like that into his side. Yeah, I think just before he go there, Lewlake, Harry Shezel over the last two years, he's played three distinct roles, right? So he's either been a CBA midfielder where he gets above 60%, he's been in defense where he gets a large portion of the kick-ins or he's been that sort of high-half forward pushing up the ground. And the evidence there, I highly doubt he goes back into defense when he's a 60% plus midfielder, he averages 115 over the last two years. And when he gets less than, I think it's 50% CBAs but doesn't get a kick-in so that forward role, he's a 105. So you're paying 109 for I think worst case, a 105 and best case of 115 upside if he is that full-time midfielder. So I don't think he's going to be someone that you pick at 109 and goes at 90 for the first five weeks and the other guys that don't select him can get him at a serious discount. I don't think over the year you're going to get too much price fluctuations from Harry Sheasle. So if you pay 109 and you get 105 from him, it's not the end of the world. But if you don't start him and he goes 115 plus to start, then that's a very, very good pick, Luke. Yeah, I think he certainly represents a fair price. I just can't see this one burning coaches too much. In fact, it might be quite the opposite given that ownership and just taking a quick look at his fixture two. Round one starts with Port Adelaide who, anyone's to guess what they're going to dish out under a new game plan, they might be a little bit disorganized and let some scores through. But then rolls into round two, West Coast Eagles, round through, around three, Ascendant. And then I'll throw in Richmond in round six there because realistically, if Sheasle is firing and you're not starting him, he's going to be a very, very difficult player to be able to trade in certainly within probably the first 10 rounds of the season. So there's Captain Scores, there's VC Scores that you're potentially missing out on. I think North Melbourne tends to play a lot of Sunday games still. So as a fallback Captain option, Harry Sheasle could really be a man this season to start. Yep. Now, agree with that. Luke, at number two, you have Sam Flanders. Like we're all picking him, but having him projected at F2 is probably a bit spicy, but I love the train of thought and I've done a bit of research here as well. But currently, adjustity 75% owned. So you kind of got to wonder what the other 25% of coaches doing at the moment. But what about Flanders has got you so excited to have him projected at F2? Yeah. So first of all, at this price point, I think Sam Flanders is pretty much a mass pick. One of the first selected in my side, certainly. We go back to 2024. His average of 108 was actually off the back of just 31% CBAs, which probably surprised me a little bit. We do know that he had a bit of time off of halfback as well. But in 2025, he sort of fell off a cliff and that was just because dimmer-faded Anderson, Rao and Miller through that midfield and then new recruits Daniel Rialy and John Noble of halfback pretty much made him a little bit obsolete in that team. So he's already come out and said he wants opportunity as a midfielder. The Saints have come out and said, yes, we want you as our midfielder. And I'm expecting this guy to slot in behind a sidewanger named Miller, certainly with the departure of Stil. Sort of at that M2 position at the Saints. I think he's going to be really effective there. And Saints being a superior fantasy friendly style of footy compared to what the sons have been dishing up in previous years. I'm I'm actually expecting Flanders to grab this with two hands. So given that some of these upper echelons, sort of options in the forward line, maybe aren't as high as, you know, what we're looking at in other lines. Sam Flanders nudging 100, maybe something north of that. I think that puts him as an F2 for me. Yeah, so when I looked at it, so looking at his 2023 and 2024 data, there was 15 games where he had above 50% set of bounces and that equated to a hundred average. And as you said, he was playing in a a goal coast side that wasn't really focused on fantasy points. The midfielder didn't score that well outside of a noir Anderson back in those those years. Yeah, there's such a hole there in that midfield now. We still don't know what in a sidewanger named Miller midfield split is going to be. We're all assuming it's full time, but they love him off halfback. What does McCray do? You've got Garcia and Windy that both averaged about 50% each. That probably amalgamates into one defensive midfield out there. So there might be some some opportunity opening up there. Sam Flanders, he's a he's a lock, but I suppose putting it in here for draft as well. It's like how early does he go on draft? It's a a ballsy coach to pick him in that sort of second, third round. But if he can be F2, he's going to get snapped up at some point. So don't mind that Lou. And number three, you've got. Oh, no, no. What? Harmie? Just to say conservatively with Flanders is going to average 90. Still 22 points upside, isn't it? So like, man, you'd be crazy not to start him, but just to pay devil's advocate Lou. Did you look at patty down how his preseason has been tracking? No, he's out of hospital. I presume and training full training. Harmie? One you didn't mention in there was Matthias Philippo. Any big footy reports, forum reports on where he's lining up in the preseason. I mean, you keep sort of everyone's killing an at-know this time of year right they're all friggin training but is he in the midfield or not because that's probably another thing you're not going to get to because I'm assuming he's not going to be in your top eight. Yeah well it's tough certainly it's not a slight but the Saints fans get very up and about and I think potentially 23 of them may win the brown low this year just looking at some of the Twitter posts regarding how they're all tracking. I'm not sure where Philipo slots in just yet I'm not sure he's ahead of windy sandfland is on a sidewanger than Miller it potentially he gets that fourth midfield slot with a really nice preseason we know that Ross loves him but we just haven't seen a lot of Philipo yet I think he's going to outperform his 58 price stat for sure how much he puts on top of that I'm not sure we know he can be a pretty effectual forward as well so that'll probably almost be certainly a rotation but yeah his body is let him down in the years previous so that's one to watch in the practice games and round zero is going to be a massive deciding factor in that if he pumps out something close to a 90 I think all of a sudden then Matthias Philipo is probably in a lot more forward lines to begin this season. Beautiful coming in at F3 Lu you've got Christian Petraca so 58% ownership it's well documented that they have a really good run to start so gelonging opening round and then Eagles and Richmond followed by his buy and then the revenge game against Melbourne which I'm sure he'll be up and about for the question is sort of around Petraca with that buy what do you sort of project him going and does that make him a starting option for us. Well that's what's tough isn't it he's got one of the best fixtures to start and as we've mentioned plenty of times over the last couple of months the forward line tends to be a little bit tougher this year it's a little bit tricky so I can certainly see some ceiling games early for Petraca. I've seen a few people also float the idea of potentially trading him at the buy to take that ceiling scores and then jump off to something else I'm not sure I'm in favour of that I think if Petraca starts the season going 1-21-20 then trading him at round three it's going to be seriously difficult because that fixture still remains relatively easy in fact pretty much up until his mid season buy it's quite favourable he's a player that comes in and out of my side all the time and to be honest he's a player that quite often pops into my midfield too which might be a little bit strange but as we'll mention during this podcast there's a lot of mid priced forwards there and as we always say with a cheap R2 it's hard to get off of a cheap R2 because you've got to trade into into piss essentially and if we're saying that the forward line is a little bit average then I'm unsure on how I'm going to be able to jump off of some of these mid priced forwards if I select them without sort of jumping into something I'm just as uncertain about so given that a lot of these forwards are lacking that mid forward eligibility him in the midfield with that nice fixture does sort of make me a little bit excited sometimes I think you know just that ability that he can go back into the forward line I can jump off one of these mid prices that maybe fails into something that I've got a little bit more confidence in given all our links to the other lines that's where I'm quite liking the tracker Harmy have you got something to say on that? Just on the mid price discussion point that you had there where you say you know like we've got a lot of mid price forwards I'm just feeling at the moment I've got too many of them and you're better off just having you know a couple and then if you don't get the right one you can flip it to the one that has really popped without any major structural change to your team whereas if you've got four or five you may end up just having to hold them too long into the season. So this is where I'm struggling though because the forward rookies aren't really there at this point either so if you actually are sorry you actually just remind me of something so and combined so Sid Draper was trying to get back into full training and went down again with a groin today so that was one we'll hope we would get to the line it's unsure about how serious it is but left the track straight away shaking his head so you are right when these forward rookies don't seem to be there yes Dev Rob hope we're hoping is there around one but you know we might have to end up putting Dev Rob on the bench if we don't get another two rookie options that are viable to be scoring cash for us. Yeah look they always tend to pop up late but the scoring potential we don't know I could tell you plenty of people that selected eyes at Kakao last year and look they probably regretted that I think you know a small forward if they're not going to be putting up something significantly north of what they're priced at often enough then they can just quite often become a dead pick but look in terms of Petraka's role this season they've already come out and said he's going to replace Tukmila in that midfield so it's going to be Matt Rau and Nile Anderson and Christian Petraka and I'm expecting probably a 50-50 rotation with Bailey Humphrey just given he's quickly developed I think he needs that opportunity and certainly little bit of a trade scare maybe last trade period so they're going to be wanting to give him some minutes in there so that's maybe not as much of a flag as what it would be with some other players just given that Petraka's impact to ability to impact forward and midfield he's quite a factual I think he can still really put up a nice score you know kick three maybe four goals but coming in priced at 90 I'm expecting something north of that so there's going to be some upside it's the early buy-around that that makes things tricky but if he didn't have that buy-around I think we'd be looking at potential ownership of what a Harry Sheasle is at 87% beautiful all right f4 we have Adam Trillor so 9% adjusted ownership we've spoken at length on this podcast about what he can do given the right role now we're unsure what his role is going to be Louis but I'll just play a little bit of opening round rule let as it's called thanks to the ball boys but Trillor comes out in opening round he has 50% cent of bounces and scores in 90 what are you doing I think I would select him what about you Harry Trillor now I'm just not keen on him sorry is he you're a yes I just look at that Bulldog system mate and what Kennedy was able to do with very minimal CBAs last year so I think he was just under 50% still able to average 97 and memories got that 30 in there as well he was he went on that game that run of like what 10 11 straight tons whatever it was don't don't quote me on that but it's just the system I'm not going to do it there's other options we're looking at C-Max and other options that have the buy which will get to a little bit later but I'm just going to say he would not shock me if after round five or round six Adam Trillor is fit and healthy is averaging over a hundred and we're all just kicking ourselves going this was this was an obvious one that we were just too scared to do it would also not shock me homely if he plays five games for the season and he's overtaken very early in the season by some of the younger players who they do want to invest time and energy into I think he was the last guy they go have a contract too wasn't he like doesn't do that to set a field each year Harry and then he just pumps out 70% of ounces so you treat a man you keep him keen I'm thinking I'm not worried about Adam Trillor scoring ability it's all about the opportunity that is God in that midfield isn't it seen he's been pretty much north of 105 average for just about his whole career so he can take that Matt Kennedy role 50% CBA is I think that's really advantageous for him I think he can score really well there but the only concern is as you said home is they've got a couple of young guns that are coming through Riley Sanders has been spoken about for a couple of years now but Joe ages the other one who who sort of come from the clouds about 18 months ago and has just about you know there's been some fluff coming out that he might even be that third midfielder they call him the minibont in terms of that midfield structure Bont's and Pellier Richards are going to be spending the most amount of time in there but if Trillor can float around 3-4 in that midfield then I've got a real interest there I think his scoring has always been proven and provided he remains fit and the way that he plays his foot he I would expect him to to put up something really nice for our forward lines this year yeah we'll probably take a longer term injury to liba I think in order to get him in there a decent rise was gone I reckon liba comes out yeah I reckon liba comes out of the midfield army this year not completely not completely but it in the in the three games that Trillor was actually healthy last year liba played 45% set of bounces now correlation causation I don't know these 34 they've got those bigger body guys in there now like your Ed Richards and stuff I could I could see a world where Trillor are so not Trillor where where liba's out of the midfield at least that the big portion that he was getting last year but let's move on Louis F5 you've got iZac Rankin now we're not starting him because he's he's suspended for round one he's priced at 87 I mean the stats I looked at in the last last two years at Adelaide where he started to get these midfield rotations. 12 games above 50% set up ounces for a 94 average, but then 23 games below 50% set up ounces for an 81 average. His contested numbers were actually really, really good, which surprises me as to why they took him out of the midfield last year. It kind of screams like Adelaide got a little bit complacent with where their season was at. Maybe his body can't hold up to full time midfield minutes each and every week and they like him forward. If he's a 50% plus set up ounce midfielder, I'm relatively confident that he's a 94 averaging player. I suppose it's what his role is going to be is the interesting thing. Yeah, exactly right. I think if the opportunities there in the midfield and Rankin's body is, you know, going to hold up to it, I think that he's every chance to go 95 plus this year. He's super talented as we know. When, yeah, I think the only thing holding him back is maybe just a little bit of management. That's what worries me a little bit. We saw it last season as well where when the Cows were sort of getting on a bit of a run, maybe they would back him off. Potentially that's where that extra interchange selection may be a little bit tricky. So he might come off at three quarter time and just play a couple of minutes there. But also we have been hearing about a bit of Josh Richelli hype too. We know that they're both really capable forwards. Wouldn't be surprised if they're going to be splitting their time, you know, equally or maybe in favor of a little bit of Rankin there. But just in terms of the depth in that Cows midfield, I'm pretty bullish on Rankin. I think he'll spend some time in our fantasy teams this season. Yeah, I think the thing they're going to need one of Rankin or Richelli in there just to have somebody with a speed to break the lines like, I don't know, who would be doing it otherwise. So they go probably. Let's pivot there then, honey, because it's, we're going to talk about Richelli a bit later on in the mid price options. But the awkward thing about Richelli is I've got some stats here. So 2023. So in his second season started the year in the midfield. And it is first seven games to start 2023, 43% set of bounces. He averaged 90. But the awkward thing about us is round one with no Rankin. That could easily be north of 40, 50, 60% set of bounces. But is it a bit of a red herring with Rankin coming back in, honey, like how we're going to know what that role is when Rankin comes back? You know what I was thinking on the weekend, home, Z. Like we're hearing this being pumped up, you know, great. He's going to be a great midfielder. Right. Why didn't they do it any this last year? Like they had all season last year in order to put in a midfield. Rankin was the name last year. Wasn't it Rankin was all the time? At the start of the season, then they took Rankin out of the midfield for some reason. I don't really understand what they're trying to do with their midfield. I remember there was a quote on Fox 40 or something where his effectiveness inside forward was one of the best in the competition. And maybe that's what Matthew Nick's was sort of trying to lean into. But yeah, I mean, the problem with Rankin is he's so good at both positions. It's about where that sort of ends up laying. So yeah, yeah, I'm big on Rankin this year. Well, I think he's someone that we are going to have in our squads at some point. I mean, given round six, we're going to get those DPPs and we don't know what midfielders we're actually going to get. It surely does interest me. He does like to be able to do that in your second season to come out in that role. Yeah, very, very interesting. But your F six is one that I want to dive into a little bit more. And that's because he picked it. So 15% adjusted ownership. So there is actually a little bit of interest there price at 87 broke out in 2025 for 69% centa bounces. But that includes some games early and when he was getting zero. So when he was in there, he was in there to the eye for me at least, it looked like he was more of that in that dusty mold where he was getting center bounces, but then pushing forward. Could there be a world where he's getting 69% center bounces again or maybe even more, but this time it's more around the ground because they're just so desperate for quality ball users around the ball. Yeah, this one is probably a little bit of a spicier one too. There were certainly some names floating around there like a grindmire's was hard to ignore. I think Jeremy Cameron provided his fit is a good one. Sam Darcy is another, but just that opportunity in that midfield, I think could really favor cause he pick it this year. So he jumped 20 points off the back of 69% CBA's last season. So he had a bit of a break out year. I'm not sure too many people sort of predicted that. It's, you know, all the demons midfielders have packed their bags and leaps. So he's going to be in there if anything I expect those CBAs to hold or even increase to be honest. As I said, sort of with Jack still a little bit earlier, total team points could potentially hurt him here. We also saw that last year when a tag did come his way or a bit of attention. He did struggle with that. So he's certainly not immune to an absolute stinker of the score, but I can see some value on his price here. And I think maybe those 15% of owners are looking towards or looking at that lack of an early season by and maybe it's a little safe place where you can sort of pick a forward that you think has the potential upside to be a top sixer. And yeah, so yeah, I don't mind this this pick here. What do you think his upside comes from guys? I mean, he was already in the midfield almost 70% of the time last season. So is it just that he's the tattoo by gone now when the absence of everybody else or that still is going to protect him a bit and look after him like how do you see him scoring more than he did last season? Look, I mean, I think it's what I mentioned before is that sort of it from the eye last year, it looked like he was getting higher center bounces, but just like the dusty days of old and even Petraka when he was at his prime, they take the center bounces and then they'd push forward and then someone would then come into the midfield to then be more around the ground so that they could be a bit more dangerous forward. So if he's now a more center bounce midfielder, he's and he's getting to stop edges around the ground more rather than pushing forward, then he's potentially going to have more rock contests around the ground and stoppages rather than just the center bounces. That's why I wish there was midfield numbers available for stoppages, not just rockmen for the rock contest, because that's going to give him more overall picture of stoppages around the ground and not just that center bounce. I think if that forward roll, starting in the midfield, moving forward remained, I would be quite concerned, but what I think will happen is that the ball is going to go the other way because they're not probably going to win a whole lot of stoppages and Cosy's going to be made to sort of follow the ball around a little bit more and get more involved. So if that's the case, I could see some improvement there for sure. As well as him having more development in that midfield, so it was only his first season sort of getting into there and breaking out properly from a fantasy perspective. I'm optimistic, I think that he can trend upwards a little bit from here. I think it wouldn't really surprise me if he can go 92, 93, anything higher than that would surprise me a little bit, but he certainly got the potential to, if he can discover maybe a little bit of ceiling, but probably just minimize that floor a little bit more. Beautiful. So just to go over that. So she's a wet F1, Flanders at F2, Petracer at 3, Trilor at 4, Rankin at 5 and then Cosy pick it at 6. Harm me my question to you before we get into some more of these mid-priced options. If we're starting a Harry Sheasel and then also a Sam Flanders. So that's two of the top six that we're projecting. Is there a need to start another one of these higher, higher priced players? So a Petracer Trilor type if we've already locked two away. I think that you certainly could. If you were confident in them going up in price, personally, I don't think I am at this stage. If you're talking about lose, let's have a look at lose ones. Petracer, I'm not Trilor, I'm not Rankin. Well, he doesn't imply round one and I'm not pick it. You did a pretty good job, fellas, but you haven't convinced me yet. So out of those players, I wouldn't say that I'm locking another one of those in it if three at this stage. Beautiful. Don't give too much away, Harm me. I haven't told you boys yet, but you will be doing a team reveal each on the podcast next week. So I'll put you guys to work. Yeah, the interesting thing is I suppose Flanders. He's so cheap. He's mid-priced, but we're projecting him to be a forward premium. In years gone by, I would be looking at just those two, locking them away. And then I'd be looking at some more rookies and then maybe some of the mid prices that have had a roll change. But I suppose the interesting part about the strategy side of things is that if we don't get these rookies or they're not scoring rookies, then we might need to look at locking a third one of these away with a little bit of upside, but just safety in sort of players that we're projecting to hopefully not after trade for large parts of the year. Yeah, that may be the way the cards full home. The we're going to discuss a couple of the mid prices here, which I am growing a little bit of confidence here. I think the practice games will reveal all certainly think there's a couple of cheaper up. options that are maybe below that mid price range that I like as well, but it would be nice to get a couple of rookies come out the woodwork and have some confidence in actually picking because right now outside of a dev Robertson, it's probably looking at a Leo Lombard and then Locky Doviston looks like he's going to be potentially making a day bill in round one. After that, it's pretty slim pickings. There's probably going to be a picket. You may even get a gallop who I actually quite like potentially and then you've got that bomb is small forward too, Harmy. I think that I've got a bar or something. It's not a great range to select from at the moment. Before we get into the GNU and mid price guys, let's just talk through quickly about some of these underpriced premiums. Some of these we don't need to discuss much. I just wanted to put Dylan Moore on the run sheet purely because we keep talking about this hole in the Hawks midfield. It wouldn't surprise me if Dylan Moore actually gets a bit of a bump there. We know what he's capable of. He averaged 92 the year prior, which was off the back of 105 post-buyer. When he gets on a run, he can really score an 88 the year before. I think with the addition of some of the Hawks players and the development. I think he'll be around that 88. I think 82 is a little bit under but with that early buy, I'm not willing to look at Dylan Moore just yet, Harmy. Sam Darcy is a name that is getting floated around the fantasy community and for good reason, absolute gun. Best young forward in the comp alongside Riley Phil Thorpe. Last year, what, first five games before he got injured, he was averaging 95. There is a loan in that 82 price tag. It's 87 adjusted when you take out that injury-affected game. He did finish the year off slow, which we now know he had that shoulder surgery in the off season. He was dealing with something natural progression. Is there a chance that you start a Sam Darcy, sorry, to get off to a bit of a flyer with a bit of unknowns around the forward line? We'll see him around zero as well, which will help to see what role he is really going to have. Typically, I don't like K forwards, which he is. They are very up and down based on the goals that they have and things going their way. With that said, the Bulldogs should have a very good season. He should really be the support rack a little bit in the forward line, I think, as well. And perhaps it's a lob in the back line, something like that, to take the pressure off English and avoid playing a second rack. He should have a good season. He's not super cheap, is he? This is the thing. When we all grabbed him last year, he was a bit underpriced from what we thought. I'm not sure, but he could very well be. It could be in that top six of the end, couldn't he? I think teams might really plan against Sean, sorry, Sam Darcy. He did sneak up on us a little bit last season, I feel. It might be a zone defence. It might just be targeting him off the ball a little bit. I think the attention will come. I think he's probably priced at what he's going to do. He's an absolute gun. He's certainly going to be hitting the scoreboard every single week. He's a tendency around a key forward, given that they don't have too many avenues to score outside of literally hitting the scoreboard. I think that's enough. Just sway me away. I'm not sure the rough times going to be significant enough to hang out on that either, given Tim English is going to be in there. Yeah. For the record, I'm not going to talk anyone out of starting in if they like him and they want to take a punt. But in my fantasy teams, I really want to pick players that are going to get off to a good start and have things going for them. If we look at his run to start, he's got GWS, which is red. He then goes into Adelaide, which is red. Now, it might not be as red with Mark Kean out, but still a tough team to score against for key forwards. Then he has his buy. Then he goes into Essenden, Parmi, which is green based off last year, but they're going to get their defenders back. We still don't know what that's like, but you'd think he probably tears them a new one. Then he goes into Hawthorne, which is red, and then Jolong, which is red. It's not a good run to start for key forwards. I think we're potentially going to own him at some point throughout the year if he's got a nice five, six game run, and he maybe comes down in price. But on that run alone, with the early buy, he's not someone I'm willing to start. Parmi, the next one I'll go to you for because you did mention him off the top a little bit, but Jordan DeGoi, round two buy, average 53 last year, which is gross. Price off his average the year before, so 77 and a half. If we look at all of his games as a midfielder in the last three years before 2025, 60 game sample size above 50% set of bounces for an 85 average, I think that's what he is, but at the same time, there is a massive hole in that Collingwood midfield outside of Nick Daycos. What is DeGoi need to do to be a starter and could you look at it? Look, I just can't let the drive by go home, Zey on that Essendon pot shop that you gave me. I think you forget that we have got the highest priced fullback in the competition in Ben MacI, so anyway, just in our defence. Jordan DeGoi, look, he's playing in the midfield apparently. He's super fit apparently. Look, it's been a shame he's not cheaper based on what he scored last season, just with the pricing method in fantasy, but I guess I'm interested a little bit, but I don't know. I think all the balls is going to Nick Daycos. There could be some upside with DeGoi if he was at his prime. He's at the age where he should be really hitting his straps and being at the peak of his powers. This is a guy that they were talking about being all Australian a couple of years ago. There is the potential and they need to move the side bottom of the midfield. With Josh Daycos, there should be some opportunity there. Chris perhaps scaling back a bit of that midfield role. Look, I just think that the role should be there for Jordan DeGoi, but we will need to see it really in order to pick him. Luke and I put you to work and get you to earn your very, very small pay packet and slide into Gen's DMs to see what that Collin Wood midfield is going to look like. Yeah, well, she would know, I think she knows what Josh's there wearing at the moment, actually. So I'll see what information I can get out of it. Good man. Alright, let's go into these listener requests. I've combined these with some of the players we're going to talk about anyway. Thanks to all the listeners for getting those requests in as we know the pod pod doesn't run without you guys. So keep those requests and questions coming in all throughout the preseason and into the main season. Luke, I've kind of considered these breakout guys. So the first one is Joel Frazier. So price at 71 was an impact swing man last year. So played all over the ground in five games where he had above 30% set of bounces the average 81. So a little bit of an uptick there, but it's kind of hard to predict his upside. I mean, not seeing what that full set of bounce rotation is going to look like, but we do know the dog score in that system. What about Joel Frazier? I like it. It's it's heavily tied to what role he does play in that side. So if he is in regular center bounces, I'm seeing a lot of upside here. As you said, just based on what the dogs have been able to produce underbevo, it's tricky to predict though. I think you're, you know, you really want to watch that practice game really closely, even more so round zero. I think if those two roles correlate and maybe he's above 50% CBAs, then I could launch into that with a little bit more confidence, definitely because we know that he is highly rated at the dogs and I think they are looking to give him more opportunities. So that's probably one of the guys I'm really going to have highlighted and watching with Hawk, Hawk eyes, give it come the practice games. Tommy, all the rage this preseason is con a Mac from Hawthorne. So price at 68, which is a little bit awkward. Day and Warp was midfield minutes are up for grabs and all training reports are suggesting that he's training with the midfield. We've been waiting for a midfield role for years now as fantasy coaches saying as the average one, 21 all the way back in the, the NAB league and he has shown patches of scoring despite not having a good role. So post by 2024, he went at 90 in a really tough role to score. I suppose my question is here, his value if he's got the midfield role, but we would need to see that 20 points upside to get into that sort of high 80s 90 mark to be value for us in our starting squads with an early buy as well. Is he someone that you're looking to potentially lock into your side at this point? I think you're going to get your 20 points upside. Every reporter you hear, name him as being one of the standouts in the midfield. Let's have a look at their midfield. Who's left in their midfield from last year? Newcom, Nash and Ward. I said earlier in the podcast that Rachelle Orrankin needs to go into the Adelaide midfield or whether this is exactly the same scenario. They need somebody with a decent burst of pace in there to be a point of difference compared to the other guys. And I think that it's just going to be him. Yeah, yeah, no, I agree. And we get that opening round look. So he's going to be one of the highest-owned forwards come opening round if he's got 50% plus center bounces and he's a mainstay in that midfield. So yeah, really like that. And I can see why the community is flocking there. It's getting harder and harder each year to find some hidden gems. So Lou, the next one I want to talk about is Sam Layla. Price at 54, the former number one pick. Usually adjusted average of 63 last year. He had a hamstring and some niggling injuries. Once again, training reports are midfield role. Clearly Richmond are talking him up as their number one pick to try and sell some hope in that in that Tigers midfield. I never liked these picks because it's hard to predict what his upside will be. He was never a massive scorer in Genius because he got drafted as that impact mid forward, right? He doesn't have stupid numbers like some of the pure mids. What do we think about a Sam Layla considering? It's still going to be Toronto Hopper and then a mixture of some other guys through there. I think we'll see more of the same. He's going to improve. So that 54 price point is going to be less than what he does this year. As is the nature of young talented players like this. But he is an impact player and I think that's where they're going to get the best football out of him. We mentioned Dusty comparison a couple of minutes ago. This is obviously what Richmond are really hanging their hat on their CSAM. Or the next Dusty Martin. I think the scoring is probably going to reflect that a little bit. I think he's going to spend a little bit of time forward. He's going to spend a little bit of time through the midfield. As a young player, sometimes that can be the toughest sort of role to play because you can't really get some consistency at either. So without the buy, I do see a little bit of upside here and I certainly wouldn't be talking anybody out of selecting him to start. But I do think there's going to be some awkward scores here and I can see this being at a little bit of a cheaper price point. But I can see this being a little bit like Oli Holland's last season where maybe he's playing the role enough. Maybe he's scoring just enough, but it's not really moving the needle at all in terms of a value perspective and he's probably not going to be close enough or even nipping at the heels of a top 10 forward. So for me, I think I'll just pass on this one. Yeah, I've heard the talk about, if Jack Ross can go into that midfield late last year and an average 72, I think it was, don't call me on that. But surely Sam Layla can go past that. And he may well, he may be that sort of 75 averaging player that we need him to. But when I look at a Jacob Hopper who's in that midfield full time as a season body, who's only able to average 82, I find it hard to see Layla really breaking out and being a value pick for us. I think he's going to have a lot of middling scores like you said, Lou. More than happy to eat my words and trade into him in round two, around three. If he's really lighting it up and he's got the role, he'll go from a 54 price tag to maybe a 60, 62. He'll still be value and then you can jump on there. So that's my thoughts on Sam Layla. Tommy, I needed to put this one in. I'm contractually obliged because Jordy's not here. He's getting a bit of love and I don't quite understand it. Connor Buddha Rick, priced at 48, having moved from the goal coast to the dogs. He has a career high average of 74, but that was only from a two game sample size and outside of that, he's been a mid 60s guy to date. And when you look at the dogs defenders, outside of a Bailey Dale, they don't score. So you've got Dale averaging 92, you've got Williams averaging 77, but he plays a bit of wing. And then everyone else under that averaging 60. So you can look at that two ways. You can look at them as saying they've recruited him for a reason to be a bit more of a lockdown, but also a distributor of half back. Or you can look at us. That's the dog system and their defenders aren't scoring fantasy points. So Jordy loves him, but where do you sit on Connor Buddha Rick? Well, again, you'll be able to see this in round zero the way that their defensive structure lines up. I always sort of felt that he would be a bit more locked here and I wasn't really so keen because of that fact, but it depends on the role that they give him. And I guess we have seen him score well at times when he does have a nice role at the goal coast bearing in mind. Have we seen it? Yeah, we have. And lastly, you didn't see it because he's been in Ford line. What a waste of time that was. So yeah, I mean, yep, there is a world where he goes very well, but I'm not so sure at this point in time, mate. Just a couple of the track reports coming out of the dogs is they like a few of these young guys coming through as a rebounding defender. I know that. Jack is unsure of his first name. Yeah, he's just. I'm never good with names. He's getting a bit of love as well. I just see Connor Buddha is a really good small defender and that's what he started his career at and sort of got the hype early off the back of so. Yeah, that's where I'm at with him. The dogs 40 hours enough. The dogs were so good on the attack last year, but then they were also getting found out on the turnover as well and there was times where they just couldn't stop teams from scoring. So I think he's been recruited to be a bit of a lockdown and a cog in their system to play a role at times. There might be some games where he gets off the chain a bit against some easier sides, but then you also might get a game where he scores a 30 or a 40, which is not what we're really after is that mid price pick. So once again, opening round, you're going to see it. You're going to have a scoring system to decide where the pick him and maybe it's a short-term play until he gets to his first buy and you jump off, but he's not someone I'm looking to target early on in the season. Harmy, the last one before we quick-fire through the end. Jemara Yugelhaigan, gone to Gold Coast on that one year deal with his career on the line, priced at 44 and we have seen him average 62 and 60 in the past and he was projecting up. He's not going to be the main guy at Gold Coast. You've got Ben King. I think it is who's their goal square leading forwards. So he doesn't leave that forward 50 and he allows the other guys, whether it's Ben and Ethan Reed, whether it's going to be a Jemara, whether it's Ben, there are other guys I can't think of his name off the top. Jed Walter. Jed Walter, to get up the ground. All reports are he's flying and he's putting his best foot forward and with that run of Richmond, West Coast in the first two, could he get off to a flyer? I kind of don't mind this one with the opening round. Look too. Well, he's done before, isn't he? He's certainly averaged more than 44 in his career. So look, again, it's really hard to tell because Gold Coast are saying he's looking super fit and he's so happy. Which they have to justify, right? This is what I was about to say, mate. Of course, they can just say that. They're not going to say, oh, well, I'm not going to go. It says to me, sorry, I take confidence in the fact that he is training fully every session, which he did nothing like that last year. So hopefully the penny has dropped for him and if they can get the most out of him, great, and he will be playing every game and he will score by 70, 65 sort of thing. So he could be a good pick, but we need to be pretty confident in that. They have an early buy and I just feel maybe it's after the buy that we jump on because he's just let it down so many times in the last couple of years. Like he would have to really have had a great change in mindset in order to be a success for us. So I would have to start him. I don't think I could jump on after the buy, I understand that he's got Melbourne immediately after it, but then it comes into Sydney and then Essendon who had the highest paid defender in the game. So, but Jolong, he goes 65 as the second forward and passes the eye test. I think I'm happy to launch into this just based on what we've got available down that lower price end of the spectrum in the forward line. Eagles Round 1 is a dream, it could definitely see him putting up a really nice pop score and by pop score I mean, 80, which at the price point, it's smashing it out of the park and then goes into a Richmond. So I think you really want him to begin the season. That's where a lot of the cash generation is going to come from and then maybe that starts to taper off a little bit post buy and you can jump into something or jump down into something with a little bit more confidence after that buy. All right, Lou, this one is from Good Friend of the show Jonathan Harmy, Tim Kelly priced at 63. We've heard a lot about him in the preseason, 86 and 97, two years prior, 79 average last five, that coincided with Harley Reed being out. There's no chances back in that midfield for any significant minutes, right? He's not someone we look at even with forward status. No, I don't think so and if some of the West Coast Eagles kids come along nicely, you know, why would they be playing Tim Kelly? He's not going to be part of the future is come out and said football isn't really interesting him. Lately, I think I would rather give that selection to one of the kids and try and fast track that development because there is a lot of talent at the Eagles as much as we do tend to take the piss out of them a little bit. So not Jim Kelly definitely. not on the cards for me. - Harmy, Riley Phil Thorpe. So, mention, best young forward in the game alongside Sam Darsi at the moment. Price today, three, so that's up from 68 the year prior. We know it's very hard for key forwards to be fantasy relevant. Think Jeremy Cameron, Max is out at 90. Is there any world where you start a Riley Phil Thorpe knowing that he doesn't have an early buy? - Well, he's no Tim Kelly in the forward line, but he's somebody worth considering. I think he said, could he break out? I think he has broken out. It was last season. And I think that's all we really need to know is he's already coming in at a fairly high price because he's done it. And I don't think that he's really going to have a huge uplifting. He's never going to be a hundred guys. So, yeah, not somebody I'd really like to start. But anyway, no early buy. So you could take it. - Yeah, he was good last year. And he had an injury in there as well. But yeah, key forward at that price. Not someone I'm looking at in my starting squad. Unfortunately, Lou finishes off, sorry, with one of your pork boys, Todd Marshall. So price at 38, missed the entire year last year with the injury, rumored to be training in defense. And we have seen it in some of the match sim reports that we've seen in Jordy and yourself being down there. For me, it screams third lockdown tall defender. But we have seen like a Harry Himmelberg in that mold. Be someone that will lock down but also be trusted with distribution. Is he a good kick? Is he someone that we look at? Or yeah, just talk me through him before we finish. - Yeah, I was probably hotter earlier in the preseason just before some of these names have popped up what we've already discussed today. Price at 38, we know he's, you know, 25 points better than that when he's played as a forward. He is a good kick and he is quite good around the ground. And he's quite nimble. If he's going to be the third tall, he needs to go ahead of one of our tall defenders. And it's not going to be a sardar, it's not going to be a Lira Leritz, you know, potentially going to be a Brandon Zirk thatcher. And so if that's the case, if he's floating third tall, maybe he's taking some intercept marks. I can see a little bit of upside there, but for me, you know, he's going to be roaring that role. I don't know if it's going to, you know, be like a duck to water type thing. It's definitely an experiment. It's not a guy who's been necessarily known as a swing man. So, poor to try some new things, I wouldn't be surprised if Todd Marshall starts the season in the sand, full just to find out whether that translates to some actual football, but, yeah, still a little bit of fleeting interest here, especially with that early fixture where, you know, potentially he can get on the back of, you know, eight marks, for example, and really just blow that break even out of the water. Yeah, I mean, we did see Finn Lasson put up some respectable scores at times for poor over the last couple of years in defense, right? So, yeah, big watch on roll, you're not going to see it in opening round, but just one to one to monitor. Boys, that's going to wrap up a huge forward episode. I got a lot out of that. So really appreciate you. We had a listener message in during the week, and I quite like this idea now that AFL Fantasy has changed, and we've now got the foes ability where you can check in on other people's teams. So I'm putting you on the spot here, Lou, but what is the name of your AFL Fantasy team so that some of the listeners can start to add, add you and have a look during the season, how you going? Oh, okay. Well, at the moment, it's Red Hot Sherry Peppers, but I do have a tendency to change my team name every year to a terrible pun. So, yeah, we'll try and keep the updated on that, but yeah, might forget to change it. Yeah, beautiful. Well, we'll keep the listeners informed if that does change. Lou, Harmy, what's your team name? Well, I was actually a bit like Lou, I used to flip mine around, but ever since I started going all right, I just had to keep the same team name. It's Hurdy's Heroes. Beautiful, and I'm Holmes' Heroes. So, listeners, if you want to add us into the foes section so that you can keep a track of how we're going, we're hopefully going to do some more engagement things throughout the year, and I think that's a really good start. Make sure you are following us on X at Pod Pod AFL. I'm at Holmes' Heroes. Make sure you subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. We'll be back next week after having seen some footy with the state of Origin game, and as I mentioned, there will be a team reveal from Louis and Harmy, and as I keep saying this, Louis is waving his hands at me. What do you got to say, mate? Have you got a prediction for who shoots the lights out next week? We saw my man, Jason Horn, Francis, and even Jai Simpkin, I think, from memory. Yes. Just look a million bucks and con their way into some fantasy sides. Do we have a prediction for someone who just turns it on and gets a lot of fantasy interest off the back of it? Is Tim Kelly playing the worst instrument? I don't know about you, Louis, but I can't wait for young guns, Stephen Canelio and Jai Gurumira to light it up in the stolen-- If stolen by Western Australian midfield. We didn't coordinate that, by the way. The vicks are going to absolutely dominate the Western Australian. It's going to be very interesting, but yeah, I'm just happy that there's some live footy that will be back on the TV. Are they playing five on the interchange? It's more than that, isn't it? I think it's like eight because the clubs are going to manage-- the clubs have full permission on how much game time each player can have and whatnot. So it's a bit of an extra-- You're up for it, too. That's actually a great point, Luke. We might actually get a look at that. We will have a bit to dissect. And if you are at Marraera's Magic Season Guide holder, I will be releasing a special podcast that I recorded with DT Lemon on his podcast a few weeks ago, where he interviewed me. And it's all about how to win a hat in AFL Fantasy. It's probably the most important podcast I've recorded all pre-season. So if you're not a subscriber, head over to marraeraismagic.com.au to get your subscription there. We've been putting out a bunch of content. It's really been flying off. So we will check in next week. Have a good week. Enjoy the origin. And we'll speak soon. Bye. Bye. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC]