Forwards - AFLW Fantasy 2024

[Music] Gennna everybody, welcome back to Freed Kick, the AFLW Fantasy podcast. Today you are joining us for the final of our positional previews. We've got the forwards. It is the position we have been most dreading talking about and we've been referring to it on all of the other episodes. So here with me to break it down, potentially in sadness but at least with some pep in this step is Mel and Jono. Mel, how are you going? I am well, I'm excited to really be looking and thinking about the forwards today because I come equipped with a fantasy team, which I've only just put together and then re-put together after Montana McKinnon injury update there. So I'm ready, I know which forwards I want to talk about and I'm excited. Really starting your analysis of some more spacious topics there, talking about one of our key mid prices having an ACL injury. Jono, have you got anything more positive to deal for us? Look, I think we've found enough players here that there's hope, there's hope for the line, but it has been more digging than I think I've done on a line in a long, long time. So it's going to be an interesting episode for sure. Well, I am keen to see what your mining pulls up in this episode and then also in the article that'll be up on afl.com.au just after this episode comes out. Now, as we've done with all of our positional previews, we're going to throw to one of us to do a top five for the line and today it's Mel talking the top five forwards. Mel, give us your top five or just start, start laying, laying all info down you can start talking about forwards. Okay. Well, please. So off the top five, I think the first four I've got are pretty good, pretty comfortable, familiar names from last season. You could really pick as many of these four as you wanted to and be pretty comfortable. The first one has to be Bonnie to good. She was a late last season and with Laura Gardner leaving the forward position to go to a midfield this season in the listings, Bonnie to good steps on up to the number one highest averaging forward in the game. She had a very impressive last season. We saw her pretty much play everywhere all the time, which was great. She has a very high points per minute and she has a very high minutes on ground of 93%. So that makes for many points and she gets these by kicking goals, leading the comp in marks, racking through the tackles. She's just a great fantasy player and a really key cog for the bombers. I wouldn't have put it better myself. I we know we all know that last years episodes were us just waxing lyrical about how good Bonnie is. And I think I definitely took some heart from the fact that on our episode with a gene ants gone that has just come out. She talked about the fact that you know there's no expectation that that role is going to change this year. The bombers improve and win as Bonnie plays well. So I'd be very shocked if her role is going to be something that changed and also that was a known fact last year. Team stride to stop her really struggled to do so only had really one bad score and her final like seven or eight games. So I love Bonnie to start my team this year and it is clearly my favorite forward at the moment. I was really glad you put in that sneaky question to the gene ants gone. I mean you kind of asked it pretty bluntly and she gave a round about yeah don't see anything changing and I was very happy for that because. Bonnie too good is in the same bucket as Sabrina Frederick for me when I think about like last year and like an on your time kind of player when they're playing everywhere in all of the roles never leaving the ground. Do you have that risk of there's been some kind of team change and you don't need that player to do everything again and obviously Bonnie is leagues above those other two in terms of I guess like forward midfield skill but that just confirm like no going to see the same thing again she's a lot. Do we expect that there's going to be a similar average this year or that she might regress a little bit because that's that's my question on starting pick I think. She could afford to lose 20 points and average and still be the highest averaging player in the game she's in the forward line she's sensational but she did improve on her previous season by about 40 points which was already her best so I'm just wondering if we're expecting this starting pick to lose a little bit of cash to start the year. No, I expected an increase average by another 40 in 2024 you heard it here first she is going to be 145 averaging this season well what you what you'll be fun to find out is I predicted basically the same thing from Charlie robot on our midfields episode. I've never seen this in a long time. That is too good. Yeah, look, I think she may drop down into the mid 90s and I still think it'll be worth while picking her because I don't see where that forward scoring is going to come from at the moment. I do think that she manages to score well in games that the bombers lose so 109 against Adelaide 105 against Collingwood and also score well in the game the bombers win so 126 against Frio, 106 against Jolong and 126 against Carlton. I think that if the bombers are getting absolutely housed then she drops behind the ball and I don't think the bombers have picked up another great interceptor so I agree the very real possibility of some regression. I just don't see it being big enough to be statistically important. Yeah, and the reason why I say you can pick any of these top four forwards is because she is leagues above the others in terms of price and averaging even if her average goes down like you said she might well still come out of this competition as the highest averaging forward and I think it's just a choice whether you start her or not of are you going her for F1 and then maybe a slightly cheaper F2 because there is quite a bit of a range in this top four or so or are you going a little bit less pricey in your forward line and putting that money somewhere else in which case you might not pick Bonnie and you might pick say Kate or yeah well speaking of Kate or you talked about picking some of the cheaper options ranked two through four do you want to give us a bit of chat about some of those players. Yeah, it's pretty funny for like a significantly cheaper option to be the second highest averaging player in the line but about two hundred and ten grand less. We've got Kate Hall coming in with a 86 point average also a bit of a 20 we've got the captain or co captain of as in the next pick one got the captain of Melbourne pick two. The reason why Kate Hall is a good option is she's got a similar model to two good she gets a points from the scoreboard and having impact on the scoreboard but she also gets a points from midfield time and tackles and she has a very high time on ground. So I think she's a player that I'm open going to do well yes I'm open going to do better than last season I reckon they are going to hope to but I think that given that she's already in a good team and she has those kind of scoreboard points you can expect those to stay I don't necessarily see her increasing her average but I think she's going to be pretty consistently up there as one of the top scoring forwards. So I definitely think that Kate Hall has a similarly well balanced score build as a bonnetugal maybe not to the same heights are you a bit concerned that Melbourne may drop away in quality this year and they may not be as ball dominant and so her time spent forward may not be as high scoring and that also she may need to spend more time forward with Taylor arrow sounding like she'll be a defender this year. Yes, but my not so smart comment to that is that there were a lot of concerns around Kate Hall last season and then I think someone in particular was very cold on her and then she pulled out a fantastic score out of nowhere so I think she's the type of player that she needs to be I don't and maybe it was a Kate Hall getting 110 after you said she was a bad choice I can't remember exactly but I think it was 147. Oh well even better but she's the type of player where I think she's such a core cog that she'll have a role anyway that's not a very scientific answer. Jonno I think one of the interesting things you say that there's need up for with Taylor Harris moving to the back line and that's entirely true but we've also seen Eliza West to part for the Hawks I think she's being stretched in both directions and if I have to say which one is she more important in I would probably lean the midfield but it's hard to say. I would I agree that she's being pulled in multiple directions and I'm not suggesting that what I questioned earlier is it fact. It's more like I don't think there's an easy answer because I would say that she's actually more pulled to the forward line because little miss them is someone who's played as a midfielder and can definitely get more CBAs, Paxi Paxman is someone who can roll through the midfield more consistently as the season goes on. It's very unknown at Melbourne at the moment I think the players that they've lost and the players they've got moving around are really foundational bits of their team and so it's going to be trying to predict who will get the roles going into the season and then also as a season rolls along if they don't season good early results and it's my other point on Melbourne they've got a rotten first three games which are long prism and earth. with a bad forward and midfield matchups. I definitely see the narrative for positivity on haul, and I also feel like there's a decent narrative in the negative. It's reasonable I'm not picking at the moment. Does anyone else have any more thoughts before I throw to the other kind of slightly older forward that we can talk about at Rank 3? I think my plan at the moment is to not have Kate Horde to start the season, but pick three and pick five. I might start them and move straight to Kate Horde. So I'm keen to hear about pick three and pick four, moving forward. Yeah, let's go now. Yeah, so it's another captain. We've got Katie Brennan here as a 71.6 averaging forward. She's also in my team at the moment. She's my F2. And I think KB is a good choice, although I did leave her off my Richmond top five because I was looking back at who I picked there and I was very excited about a lot of midfield players. So KB had to wait until the Jono hosts special at the end. In terms of our forward choices, I might not have quite been considering that as much as I should have when I was thinking about the Richmond roles. She has shown that she can get some really good scores without any goals, which I like about a forward pick. She got an 82 in round seven without any goals. And then she got a 75 in round eight with one goal. So it means that she's got kind of a good baseline there, even when Richmond aren't doing as well potentially. We saw have a really good year last year, bit of a breakout for her. And she was getting some CBAs towards the end of the season. She's no, she's someone that we know can run through there as needed. And as you heard and liked that really good interview with C.J. the other day, she's very supportive and will kind of like run around where she's needed. The reason that why she's my number three, because we're now deviating from the slightly from the highest average forwards to the fourth highest average forward here is because of her lineup. She's got a really good lineup for defenders with in terms of the scale of hardness that Jaden's put together on stats by Jaden. But you can see that she's got like the best forwards lineup in terms of West Coast, GWS Sydney and then Colton. That is very tempting. Yeah, I like it. What do you guys think? I like it. I don't necessarily. I'm not certain that there's a lot of massive upside there. But I think that she's probably got a lot more upside than other players that we're going to be talking about in premium or underpriced premium areas. And I think that I probably would have been a little bit hotter on her if she'd maybe, if Montana McKinner had played and it was Montana McKinner in the Ruck, I really liked the trajectory for Richmond's midfield, which in turn meant I probably liked more of Richmond's trajectory going inside 50. I think Moncanti, Ellie McKenzie, Eilish Sheeran and Grace Egan is a really good midfield group. And I had better hopes for how their forward entries were going to look. So I may be am not as hot as you on I haven't got her in my side of the moment, but I still see the value there. I think the big one for me is when I look at these top 10 forward options that we have, a stat that I found writing these articles was that every single one of them has had their highest career average for fantasy last season, which I think is truly incredible. So if I'm trying to find a player that I think after five games is going to be priced at exactly what they are now or higher, I have, it's hard to find someone that isn't going to regress just a little bit. I think Katie Brennan is the best of these options that we're looking at to say halfway through the season, she's going to be priced where she is now. And that actually is a good segue into my number four. We don't have to finish on KB. He's to go more to say, but number four for me, he's the third highest ranked forward, which is Gemma Horton. So I've done a bit of a swap a row in terms of that. And I think that they've got, so she's priced at 77 compared to KB's 72, but I think the real differentiator here is just that start of the fixture. Gemma's going up against Adelaide for her round one game, which is going to be tough. And so I think the forwards are not so much a question of like, who's going to increase their average by the most? Who's going to be 20 versus 25? Who should you be picking here? It's more like who they could all go down. They could all stay flat, but who's going to have the best one at the start for your starting squad given that we have got some like really high averages coming into the season? And I think Gemma could potentially lose a little bit, but I think she's also a very consistent pick. If you're willing to start with her because she is maybe a bit cheaper than a horror or too good and just cop a bit of a loss in round one, but you don't want to have to deal with trades after that, then she's a good pick. Because she has been very consistent, she has that high score up there. And kind of like too good as as poor Adelaide expansion club get better, Gemma Horton's scoring is going to get better. Yeah. I think she is also one where it's not just that round one game against Adelaide in round four, they also played North Melbourne, which is another very, very challenging game. But I'm pretty sure after that, I don't know if they play a finalist from last season. For the rest of the year, it's a very, very positive run. So this is one that I'm probably looking at upgrading to just because I think she is sensational, you know, great with her hands and she finds a way to get involved even in losses. It's, it's, it's just that challenging run to start the year. Yeah, that's, that's definitely what we need to be thinking about. Speaking of tough runs, the person who you've got at number five starts off with the toughest matchup for forwards and yet she still ranked very highly. Who have you got there? Yeah. So as I kind of alluded to it to start, picks one to four, solid, pick as many of those as you want. I reckon, but Courtney Horton is my number five as the best of the next lot of which there are some questionable options. So I think when we compare, like she's, she's definitely in the underpriced premium bucket. And when we talk about who's there in a moment, it'll kind of make a bit more sense. But it's marked the year when a Courtney Horton, if you haven't seen that mark, go look it up. It's very entertaining. She is the 13th highest ranked forward coming in. She finished off the home in a way season really strong. She got 92 in the grand final with 47% CBA. So you do love to see that. And this is the first kind of player in the forwards that I've spoken about so far that isn't reliant on the scoreboard for their points. She's really doing that usual mix that we love, which is listed as a forward and getting CBAs, getting in the midfield. A lot of her points are coming from tackles. She had 18 tackles in the grand final, which is insane. But tackles work. So, you know, that's, that's good. I think that's good. That's good. That's good. More just over 15 minutes to the forwards episode. And we've resulted to tackles do work. They're good. No, I think she fits that mold that we know and love. Yeah, tackles great. And I think she's the next best option. She's only priced at 57, which is very enticing. That's almost half of Bonnie too good. If she can get up there, like she's one that you would grab because she's going to potentially increase her average. Yes, just matter if you can fit her. Liam. Yeah, I really like the idea of playing with Courtney Hotta, maybe at F2 or F3. And I think part of that comes down to she has often been deployed as a as a CBA midfielder in the games against tougher opposition. So she had CBAs and a great scoring game against North during the season last year. She obviously had an incredible result against them in the grand final. And then also in Brisbane's fixture, they have Melbourne in round two. They have Adelaide in round five. And then they've got the earliest of the double game weeks. So Courtney Hotta for me is someone I'm extremely tempted by. Obviously it will be tempered by the possibility she's just playing as a deep full forward and one of the other, you know, changeable, movable chess pieces of Brisbane is taking the CBAs as that kind of fourth option. So it could be Ellie have some could be breed kind. And I can't say that the interview that we had with Sophie Conway for Brisbane was particularly fruitful. At this stage, you know, you're not going to hear that interview just yet. But let's just say they are very well media trained and very cagey with details. But Courtney Hotta is definitely one that I'm keen to start with. It's it's incredible actually the scoring difference between some of these top teams and the bottom ones. You can see the stark difference in those roles. I mean, you look at that North Melbourne game in round four. She's put up an incredible 74 on the back of 13 tackles in that game. And then the following week against Hawthorne, they don't need to tag anyone forward to the forward line and 14 points. The four of them in the second half, they just in the second half, it was close in the first half. Hawkes were up at half time, but that that really fell away. Yeah, it's it's not just confident. And I don't think we're going to see this necessarily in the practice games because you're not going to bother tagging anyone in the practice game. So this is really, this is just faith that what worked for Brisbane in the finals and throughout last season, they're going to do again in round one. And that's that's really all we're looking for. I think it does have to go down in the memory. So memory books the record books the record it does have to go down in record books though That we are recommending a top forward who has had a game in a season where she's got more tackles and fantasy points Yeah, and also someone who averaged 45 points less than their first option on the list. Yeah Big range But yes, that's that's the top five Well, that is does a well that's good effort as we've just starved so far There's some really dire options now you've mentioned not having a lot of faith in the other options that we've got Let's move into the low faith zone without underpriced premiums Mel you've just had a whole bunch to talk about we've actually already discussed the player that I think John I wants to talk about but who have you got? The player that I want to talk about is also at the the demons and that is Taylor Harris so as we flagged earlier she's moving to half back and We really haven't seen this very often, but I think it's a role that I'm personally quite hopeful for and the main reason is that she's a great intercept mark They have a desperate need for intercept markers now with Libby Birch having been moved on amongst other defenders and Quite frankly, I think her kicking out of defense. She's a powerful kick. She's a very accurate kick I think she's likely to take a lot of kickouts for them, which could be exciting and Yeah, I it's something that we haven't seen she's obviously carrying that shoulder injury for the last few weeks So we didn't get to see her in the match simulation She should be back against pot Adelaide this weekend So that's a game that we're gonna have to watch closely We've Taylor Harris. I think she's got a very consistent score against the lower teams and what's really held her back in the last few seasons is that her floor scores aren't great So against Adelaide last season in particular I think she put up what was it a 25 against the crows which really pulls her average down She would have averaged in the 60s if it wasn't for that game So I think being in the defensive line means that even when they're playing these top teams and they're you know Terrific defenders trying to clamp her down. I think there's opportunity there for her to sort of lift up that floor and just be a more consistent forward for us I Wanted to say that's a great selling pitch I would just like to say one thing that was some serious tally a gillard slander. She is an elite Interceptive mark and I refuse to have you say that they are in desperate need of intercept marks We wedged and watched that match him against Carlton and she was dominating No, no, I just I take what I say to get a purchase obviously that Yeah, no, I don't want to say that there are other teams in more desperate need But liby birch is just a big player to replace big shoes I agree wholeheartedly. I'd also just like to flag that while she does have a shoulder injury She missed match sim not because of injury, but because she was at the Olympics Yeah, I think it was I think she would have missed it anyway from what the injury reporting was saying It's very unclear. I I can't wait until the day we have mandatory and complete injury reporting in the AFLW rather than on the Friday before the practice came start We finally hear about these 2030 players in the league that are that are injured It's that's true. It could be either one but oh, I it is it is a good They're marking it they're making it look like it's not an injury. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah I'm just always worried picking a player that is carrying an injury coming into a season I think this is one that I'm happy to let it slide just given some of the other difficulties we're having on this line But yeah, it's not ideal She's she's definitely not ideal and I think I think it's in part because we have this vision of Taylor Harris running and like being able to be this streaming player of halfback But we've never really seen it and you say that she's a great intercept mark She's never had a season where she's averaged more than 0.8 intercept marks per game Not an intercept mark. It was a great contested mark. I want to be clear She's not had to do this behind the ball that often before so this is a different It's a slightly different thing. It is it is definitely a slightly different thing. Yeah, it's definitely one where I'd love to see Or hear some strong word that she's fully healthy and we see a match simulation So you see the pool preseason game see what the role could look like It is more likely though that she's someone I don't start with and then trade into if it appears that she's adept in the role Yeah, fair that's a fair fair for it Well, we're gonna talk about we've gone from one key forward That we're now considering picking for the role that they don't currently play or play out It's not a forward line. I know that the second option male is the someone you want to talk about who we're gonna pick again Not because they play in the forwards yet now we're back to our usual forward techniques, which is pick forwards and aren't forwards So we've got Danielle Ponte she is Higher averaging than Courtney Hotto which Isn't a good selling point to begin with but She had a very good she had a very good season eight she really like I know longer games But she really increased that average massively up 22 points And that was because of her Moving to the midfield she was she went up from 7% CBAs in season 7 to 64% so we do love to see that The other thing is that Adelaide have a good start there are I imagine that they would be a good team to be picking from She is a bit expensive though. That's pretty much my argument That is you have really put the most into giving us that argument Look, I was really keen on the first five plays I picked and now in the middle I'm like Yeah, I looked at Danielle Ponte really closely when we were doing our best 21s because I think her role is so interesting She went from what 7% CBAs in season 7 up to 64% So massive increase and at the same time she had a career high number of goals I don't think it's very often that you see a player move way into the midfield and then increase their forward output I think it's incredible to see I would find it Yet again incredible if she was to do that again let alone better like I think what she was outputting last season was so much better than Nearly every other Midfielder in terms of the forward impact they were having Kate Horace Jazz Garner aside Aside from that though she was Leagueshead Yeah, I'm gonna say one thing though her impact is not in the midfield it is as a forward. She's a CBA player And then does not rest there because Tia Charlton Replaces her every after every CBA or it was a Chelsea Randall coming off a half-forward line and then sitting in the midfield And Ponte goes forward and stays forward after those CBAs So it is a very interesting role and I think I don't like it as much because I don't know if Danny or Ponte has Other levels to go to she has perfected a very difficult role to score really well in because she's not a high first Possession player because she's got two of the best other midfielders in the competition sanding x to her and A lot of the Adelaide clearances come and go for distance and so it doesn't hang around for a massive amount of time Where Ponte can continue to rack up. I think she did an incredible job to score where she's at But this feels like the best that she can do in the role that she plays That is not necessarily a bad thing though in a forward list where we have The top five or four of the top five were planning on having their average remain relatively steady If she can maintain something like High 50s in the 60s That could be good. I mean she does have a decent first line up. She could be someone that you either Begin with and then hold or pick up after a really tough couple of matchups on the assumption that she can Keep that kind of role in scoring I will say as much as I've I looked at Daniel Ponte because that's a great first run of games She scored a 32 against Port Adelaide last year, which is not a great score Then she also had a 54 against the Brisbane Lions. No, sorry not Brisbane Lions the Western Bulldogs So that was two of the easiest teams to score against last year and they were her two worst scores so I think there's definitely an argument to be made that this is a a big game player and Not a great score are when we need her to be and it's that inability to predict which is why I don't necessarily Love picking her for my team. I I know though that there are a number of people that will see value in Daniel Ponte I just I said that I think she's maxed out what you can do in the role she plays I think that that's also a sign that maybe she regresses it a little bit this year Just as a completer side She also led the league for Santa Clarances which I think is a phenomenal stat and needs to be celebrated for a player that Didn't play in the middle of the year before It's incredible. John I has had his hand up ready to say something for a couple of back and forths now And he's just been patiently waiting And that was needed to be said should be it's the business celebrated. I'm impressed. I'm impressed It is truly one of the most unique scores and players that in the entirety of the league last year and After that fascinating discussion every interesting player it turns upon me to talk about the other options in this tier that we don't necessarily have a larger amount to say about so the other players that we would consider potentially will have considered at some point this preseason Number one is probably cool into howeth who's come across from Gold Coast to Collewood now Don't love the fact that she is injured at the moment and still is back into main training. So it's unlikely that we see her in the preseason game. And that also gives us a bit of concern about her performing to begin the year. She's someone that we know will be integral to ball movement at Columnwood, just given what we know about what they're missing. It's just I don't love her. If she's going to miss games to start the year, then also speaking of integral to ball movement on your tide is someone who is a little bit more expensive. I think she average like 70 71 last year. I don't know about you guys, but I'm pretty concerned about what's happening at Freemantle this year because they've got so many moving pieces. Even before they lost their two best midfielders from last year to pregnancy and an ACL injury, are we concerned that do we think that there's ability for type to fill that gap or is she someone that's going to get lost in the mad shuffling? Yeah, there's also the addition of Gabby Newton. I feel like last year's tide was that Bonnie too good type role where it was just if you kick it to it because you know that she's going to do what you need her to do. Now they've got more options and I think that's going to make me a little bit more concerned. Do you think can you say unequivocally that Gabby Newton will be a forward? No, I could say that is the most likely place you'll be, but I can't say anything about Freemantle. No, I think it's hard to say anything unequivocally. Only to be on the field. It's just what is she doing? How fancy relevant is what she's doing? But she'll be there because she's an important player, but that's all I can lock in. Undoubtedly an important player. So it's one to watch it may be that she's an upgrade target when we know a bit more or maybe she just maintains that average and sits at a really awkward price for us. Now speaking of players that have always been on our field, the other player that we need to just mention was Chelsea Randall. She's priced at 59 going into this year. Now I think she's been a very important fantasy option in the past, but her role last year was not that much midfield anymore. It was a bit forward, mostly forward and a bit back. And also a decent, I like, you know, not a great time on ground as we have liked. So as much as she may have been a popular name in the past, I don't think she's an option this year knowing that she is somewhat highly owned to start the year. Yeah, I think Montana McKinnon leaving the crows is probably one that almost requires her to stay more forward because they are a little bit short on tall options. I think they've got a very talented forward line, but height is one thing that Randall can provide. So that's not a great look for the fantasy chops. No, not at all. I don't think they're either doing that or they're picking Rookie Lily Talenton, who sounds like she had an okay performance in the first match simulation. And we'll see how it goes in the preseason games, but I agree. I don't like starting with Chelsea Randall this year, but I know that she's a name that will crop up in questions as the preseason and the season starts. All right, we've moved from the no faith zone to the, we have no faith, but there are a lot cheaper zone with our best value options. That's a great zone to be in. It is an absolutely beautiful zone to be in. And so now who is the player that you most want to talk about in the mid values? That's a long ponder face that you're giving me. There's quite a few good ones. Do I just feel that they're in my side, but I'm going to go with Hannah E. Wings, old, old, old, famous, old man. That isn't old me. This is a few years ago. Price at 45 and the reason I like her the most is because of the kind of the role change that she could be going into this season, which would see her increase that score. The Aaron Phillips whole, that sorry, the Aaron Phillips shape CBI CBI CBI. Oh my gosh. CBI whole. I had one sentence I wanted to say and I couldn't say it. The Aaron Phillips shaped CBA taking whole. That was a few. That's it. That was left at port. I mean, she had a bit of a drop off from her rookie year. She have 61 in her first season down to 45 last season. But that means that we know what she can do. The roles now there for the taking, it would increase her CBAs coming into the current season. I think of a what we're looking for in this bucket is someone that can increase their average significantly and earn us some cash to trade up to all those other fascinating options we just spoke about at the enterprise premium bucket. I think she's one that can do that. She's definitely one I think can do that. There are a couple of concerns for me. I think the first big flag is that she's not been at training recently and wasn't at the match simulation. We've not heard anything from Port Adelaide just yet. So it's a big flag on if there's something else going on. If there's an injury that we've not been told about. I think Hannah Ewing's is very much our we need to see her play the role to pick her. I think the other thing is as much as there's a CBA sized hole at the Port Adelaide Aaron Philipses. We're definitely in a position where I think that they've brought in some superstar rookie midfielders in the private window and Shanae Goodie and then Kirstie Lam is also someone that may fill that gap. So I agree based on what we know about the good fantasy strategy, which is pick players that we know have been highly drafted in the past than have had better averages and who have potential for role. I think Hannah Ewing's ticks all of those boxes. There's just a host of other red flags. Yeah, no it's hard to disagree with that. I think it's hard finding players that are going to guaranteed take a role when there are always incumbents and other players that are also fighting for that position. And I think that's true of another player that I want to talk about. Which is Ellie Guevara. You take that segue. Yeah, perfectly done. Great, thank you. It's Ellie Guevara's because we saw at the North Melbourne, she was unable to get into that midfield mix, but she's now taken off for the Western Bulldogs. And it's a midfield role that we really we really want to see. I think she's got all the talents for it. She looks terrific in the stoppages against Richmond in the match simulation on the weekend. It's just that there are other Bulldogs also pushing for the role. We saw Ellie Blackburn's obviously going to roll through there, but is he pritchard looked phenomenal in that game? Deanna Berry got a lot of time in the middle. I think it's going to be tough to say that Ellie Guevara is going to get a lot of time in there. Having said that, I think she looked good and I really hope that this coming week we see a little bit more and hopefully we can see it. I don't know, 40, 40 to 45 percent of the CBAs. I think that would be enough for her to have value on the board. I fully agree with you and I think that anything above about a third of CBAs is enough given that the last time he saw her playing a CBA role at North, she managed to average just a hair over 14 touches, nearly two marks, three tackles a game and 56 fantasy points with a points per minute of a one point, which is good for the forward line this year. And I think that that kind of 56 average pre-scaling, so pre-length game times that bumps her up into a low 60s type of player. 20 points of value across the season in a line with nothing. I am fully on board with picking Ellie Guevara's. Now it's also, it's not as simple as that because they've got a new coach. I agree though that she looked really good at stoppages and I also think that even if we don't see high CBAs, this is a player or we need to watch the role post-centre bounce. See if the ball moves to the half-backline, does she continue to go with the stoppage and follow it if there's a ball up or a throw-in or is she just resting a kick away from where that ball ends up at a secondary stoppage? I personally got her in my side of the moment. She was one of the first forwards that I've picked outside of two good and the rookie that we're going to discuss later. I am fully on board with Guevara's. Have you guys both got it? I definitely do. I had her. That's an almost too sure. That's fair. That is fair. This is a very unsure line. Because someone else I like is Cynthia Hamilton and she came number two on my Sydney review, which in hindsight, maybe a bit strong, but that's okay. She's priced at 47.5 and the reason we like her is she's this is the forward, but we heard from the Laura Gardner interview that she's running through the midfield and training through the midfield. That can definitely help her average coming in there. I think out of some of our options, she's probably one of the more certain ones. I think she's got the highest potential. I think of all of these players here in a sense that she's phenomenally talented. I feel like from Laura Gardner though, we heard that it's a lot of people running through that midfield as well. I mean, Sophia Hurley's looking for more minutes, Montana Hams looking for more minutes. I think it's going to be a challenge to fit them all in. I think she should improve on last season. I also don't mind this option. It's just how much is she going to improve? It's just how predictably are we going to get that improvement? Because I think if it was a CBA role that we were confirmed on, we were comfortable in. We could start her and say like we probably expect average scores and like 20 points up. If it's just she'll improve, but still spend a lot of time forward, you end up with a lot of lumpy scoring, which means that cash generation gets really wild. And you probably have to trade her out before you lose too much value because you just can't go, well, easy match up, she'll score well. I think that she's phenomenally talented, but I also think that Sydney are in need of small to medium forwards with Alicia News. human leaving. And so I think that Cloy Maloy is someone that might spend a little bit more time away from CDAs and playing forward. But Cynthia Hamilton is also someone that can do that. So I love the moments that we saw from her particularly in her first season as a midfielder. She had those really electrifying moments. But I also think that that's in a lower quality midfiel than what Sydney now have. I think that the CDA rotation of Tangard Kennedy, Laura Gardner, and Cloy Maloy, it's going to be tougher for Cynthia Hamilton to break into it. But I do like her long-term fantasy potential if she's a midfielder. Okay, well I'll stop volunteering options and what do you guys go? No, no, no, we should make it even worse. It doesn't mean we are like fully understanding why you mentioned her as a player. I literally just said I love her long-term fantasy potential. I can't always be positive. No, that's a gate. Let's hear some others. She's spent moments in my team for sure. Another one then, if we're going to jump into players that I have zero confidence in, let's see, we've got Nicholas Stevens moving to half back at the Saints. A role that she's previously been all Australian and I think there's an interest there. It's that St. Kilda ball transition that we just don't love. We don't see it very often switching around the back. And those firsts, I think what is it? Five of the first six games are either at RSEA Park or Wendy Hill. None of which are great for kick-much games. There's hope there that she can push up to a high 50s average, but I'd have to see it first. Yeah, it's a very, very risky option to go to putting your faith in a St. Kilda team that we have discussed as having possibly the worst or second worst fantasy game planner of all the teams. If I can profit someone who is risky for different reasons, Gabo Sullivan, this is another team that has very changeable roles, but at the very least she's not only been, she's not been at the top of her line or Australian, she's just been top of her line as a fantasy option. So she's gone at over 70 in the past. She's now crossed a hair under 40. That is super, super cheap for someone that we know that can has it's 30 plus extra points. Now there are huge red flags. Freeman tall have massive red flags on who's going to play in the midfield. Gabo Sullivan is a horrendous scorer as a Ford. She also has shoulder issues that means that she is liable to see one or both pop out at multiple points during the season. Interestingly though in the preseason that simulation she was also spending time rolling off halfback, which I don't despise. It's not as much as I would like to see a midfield roll from her, but we know that there is the ability to accumulate off halfback probably better than the 39 that she's priced out, which includes an injury effected score in her second game of the season against Colin Wood. I just, are we really going to pick Gabo Sullivan for the third season on a road? Yes, just. Yes. Yes. It kills me. It kills me every time. She scored a one in round two. A one, a singular one. Now in the next two games with 70 and 72 percent time of grand shed 27 and 17, but that was without CBAs. In the first game of the season last year, she had 70 percent CBA. She scored a 75. That's bang on what she's done in the past with the CBA roll. That's perfect. It's literally simple maths. You've got to pick Gabo Sullivan. All right, I've talked myself into it. She's my four perfect. Okay. Well, at the start of recording, I had Hanna Ewing's Cynthia Hamilton and I can't wait to hear what you have to say about this one. Darcy Bessio. This is this is the best one you've suggested so far. I absolutely, really bad. You, I, and this was one that I made a call on after the singular game that we watched on Friday night. But I liked Darcy Bessio. Price to 46. We saw them playing on the wing in that game, which was nice. And I'm sure that does, I'm sure that Will has got a long history of everything that he can rattle off about Darcy Bessio. I can't say I know as much about their extensive history of free, but of a couple of games last season where they were listed in the midfield, being game one and game four, they scored 74 and 78. Coming back into the wing, looked really reliable as like a kick target. Looks good out there. I think it's a good option. I think it's a role change that can lead to some increase in fantasy potential. Why am I worried? I agree. No, no, I think that that's like perfectly sound analysis. I think that what we wanted to see was a slightly better game plan from Colton, because they were not a high market team last year. They were a stoppage tackle and then try and clear it forward with hand most of the time. Now that affected their entries inside 50. I think that what we saw from DV was someone who was capable of being an intercept marker and then a marking target on the wing. And then at the very least in the first half of the match simulation, which is the only thing only half a step above training, I saw Colton hitting more targets than I was expecting. And against a good top four side from last year, who I think are going to not be as good and who I'm missing key players. But that aside, I do think that there's some potential increases for DV. I think that there's a 60 average potentially waiting there, which is 15-ish points of value. Yeah, I've actually got DV in my side as well right now. I'm not sure that's going to be the case when I release the forwards article, but I certainly hope it is because I do like the look of it. Yeah, well, I in terms of things that we like to look off that I don't think we could go past the forward and talking about mid values without talking about two of my favourite. And some of the most frustrating fantasy options we've had and that's Paige Scott and Ellie Hampson. Paige Scott at Essendon has just a game like no other. She is at some point going to take Mark of the year, or at least Mark of the week multiple times. She will also give away multiple free kicks per week, trying to take set Mark of the week. Got an incredibly good sense for tackling and by the sounds of it we'll get rolled through the midfield this year. I feel more comfortable saying she will spend more time in the midfield this season with Daria Bannister back healthy. And I also believe that Emily Goff, who was the bomber's first draft pick, is playing as a forward. And I think the bombers have always lacked another forward who could sit deep and who would be taller. They've been playing someone like a Paige Scott who can jump really high and at players and outsized forward. I think that that gives her more scope for scoring. Now, do I think that she's got enough to make it worthwhile? I think the price tag at 49. Oh, it's a price to do 49. It's just a little bit too uncomfortable for me to pick her. But I definitely think that there's a midfielder who can score really well in there. So 660K, she's got to be tempting for you. I thought one really interesting stat that you brought up about Paige Scott during our episode on Monday on the bombers was that she had what was it doubled her tackles in her second season? I would love to see her tackle attempt numbers from both seasons and just find out if it was freaky related because I remember her giving away so many in that first season. And I'm sure she gave away the last year. I would love to see the tackle attempt numbers. That's all I'm saying. It would be fascinating. Yeah. Look, I too would love to see them. I don't know if I'd like to see the result. But from a fantasy perspective, I think it's tempting. I just, I love the the potential of this one. It's not someone I'm starting the season with unless we see like a full superstar midfielder only break out in the preseason game. The same probably goes for Ellie Hampson, who is someone that has probably seen a lower ceiling or like, you know, a more inconsistent player than a Paige Scott. But I like the idea that, or the narrative that she sat deep forward for most of last year because she'd had no preseason. She had been, she'd gotten knee surgery after switching across from the Gold Coast Suns to Brisbane. And as a result, had her easily her worst season of scoring. But as like, you know, it's very easy to understand she got told essentially and we had the interview with her last year that, yeah, I wanted to go across to Brisbane to be a midfielder. And I think Brisbane showed a propensity to throw around to play in the midfield. So Courtney Hodder was a midfielder, Breconin was a midfielder at times last year. I think that Ellie Hampson is a supremely talented player. And I don't think she looked very natural as a forward. So I do wonder if as the season goes along, she becomes more of a center bounce player. Yeah, I see what you mean. I, if a player is requesting it, it's hard for the club to say no, but at the same time, I thought she also was very, very good in the grand final. And as a forward, like I think, didn't she kick two goals from memory? And that to me is just did. I don't necessarily think every game she's been a forward, she's looked great. But if you perform on the biggest day in the season, I think the club is just going to keep toying with it a little bit. Yeah, I would just say though that like kicking two goals, but being otherwise absent from that game. So Having only six disposals and one mark. I know that that's slightly The role isn't stack based. It's you know, how much do you contest? How much do you bring the board of ground? It's hard to quantify. I just remember on the day thinking that was a really powerful performance Even if the stats don't reflect it Yeah, I just I just don't see it forward I'd like she brings the ball to ground because she wasn't taking marks. That's not a great thing to have I just don't see a natural Full forward which is effectively where they were playing her I Definitely think that with a full preseason should be going for more midfield time I have nothing to suggest right now up front that that she's gonna get that But I do think that as the season goes along We should all be keeping tabs on what amps and is doing given how cheaply she's priced like this is someone who Has gone at over 50 in shorter quarters in still a pretty awful role and a bad goal coach team at that Who is priced at 440 2k so just above a bookie? Yeah, I don't know you guys, but that's gonna be tempting. No, no doubt No doubt. It's one to watch for sure Absolutely, so we've now gone from we've reached the bottom of the mid priced here And now we are just into rookies. So this is anyone under 420k now I'd love to be able to tell you all that we've got a laundry list of so many options that you don't have to pick any of the Undervalued or mid priced options, but alas the list is at the moment in the preseason relatively short John, oh, is there anyone in particular that you wanted to talk about as a lock for your side at the moment? Oh, as a lock for my side. I think I'm gonna struggle, but as There is there is a jetter's plan that you there is one player. Yes, I think I think there's no easier option to pick as a rookie then Michaela palger. She is a recent addition to the GW side fresh off a premiership with the lions and I think Coming with our favorite phrase more midfield time. That's why she's gone from the lions to the giants I think the giants have a very strong midfield core like Elise Parker, Nicola Bar, Zallie Golds, whether they're all big and strong players But what ponga brings to the team is an incredible amount of speed and dynicism I'm really really excited to see what she can add to that team priced so so cheaply and that's mainly because there's a small forward. It's easy to end up with very low stats I think as a midfielder her junior numbers are far more promising She's a good tackler. I think there's a lot of hope for what she can bring in 2024 Yeah, I think it's I think it was like a 95 plus average in the VFLW this season It's the fact that she had high scores in you know the 120 plus range in that VFLW campaign She said it herself in the interview we did with her. She's training as a midfielder most of the time That's where she wants to play she loves to lay tackles and I do think that GWS or another side that as much as you say there's a core midfield group I do think they dabbled with a Hanin Zareka in there at times Nicola Bar wasn't always there. Alicia Eva has been someone that's drifted in and out and even Zallie Goldsworthy was not the highest CBA get us So I personally reckon that Michaela ponga priced at only 363k which is effectively a mid-round Red man round two rookie is too good an option to pass up for me Particularly because she started the best matchup possible in my mind she starts up against the Western Bulldogs I think we're going to see a high tackle game and I think power there's going to be someone that really shows out and generates him cash Incredibly quickly. Yeah Mal- Mal have you got her at the moment as well? Me well No, yeah, I do right now, but I've changed my team a few times while we're recording as I often do I can always tell what you're doing because I just see this hand on the chin stare Well, if you're not listening very considering ponga who are you considering her placed against? Well, I had Ruby Tripodi and I know you've got As we've already discussed at the game on Friday you've got a good number of reasons why you don't like her But she was a friend of the pod and she has a soft spot in my heart So I don't think she's gonna do bad. I just don't think she's gonna be the breakout Potentially the most breakout of these rookies But mebichi prodie is the was a player to watch from the interview with Test Craven we know that the talent is there her only issue really is about breaking into the tough north midfield side We did see herself Have that role a few times at the end of the last season. I don't know if the stats in front of me But if she like if she's the player to watch if she's been absolutely smashing it at preseason And she's kind of proven herself to have a bit more of a space in the north midfield then If she can increase her time on ground, then we're gonna see the points come. It's just a big if on that Yeah, I think we are you know having heard a little bit from the north team It sounds like as much as she didn't play in the final she was constantly the kind of 22nd player of their 21 And I think with Jenna Bruton sounding like she might miss to begin this year She may actually have some cba's and a role in the best 21 now. There's obviously job security concerns going forward But the fact that she's got big reps his preseason and I don't know if you guys have seen the photos But she has really put on some shoulder bulk which says to me that that's midfield time incoming And I think that as much as she's been a good player at VFLW level Her fantasy scoring hasn't always been incredible because she's not a high tackle player I'm hoping that with a bit of extra training in there she may actually become a more adept fantasy midfielder I don't hate starting with her on your bench in particular Just with the big flag on her kind of role security and job security too Yeah, I think if we're if you're going with a strategy where you're going a couple of pre-modes and a couple of rookies Because that mid price range is quite dire for the forwards Then it's nice to have a couple of options and I think she's not a bad one Agreed well, I'm going to talk about another couple of options that I do like A who is one who's actually going to play as a defender and that's yesman Dersmer at Carlton How she's come across as a winger At put out of late and has been traded across to the blues now having watched the match simulation She looked to be playing a half back roll and I think we can agree that we don't expect Carlton to be amazing That may spell some more time chipping around the ball across halfback not that we saw a huge amount of that during that match simulation I do just think that priced at 350k This is someone who's coming as a talented player and relatively highly drafted when she was at put out of late Playing in a role where we've seen in the past Carlton has been a fruitful option for halfbacks I don't hate the idea and I think at the moment she's Ah that is so good For those for those who may not have been able to tell or hear it probably that was mill Recording Jono sang air absolutely and playing it allowed on her phone instead of him saying it that is Not where I was going and how did Where were you going net Jono? I was going to say my major concern was when she wasn't playing off halfback she was on the wing and being on the opposite wing to Quality player like Darcy Vesio means you might get caught out on the fat side of the ground That's my only little red flag that I have on an otherwise I think very Very safe pick for a job security perspective and someone that I expect will put on a bit of value this season Yeah, absolutely. Are they in your side? They are not currently in my side because I want to talk about another forward rookie that has recently replaced her The gold coast have made some significant changes in the offseason And I think one of the big things that are going to change is their rotation in the cba's outside of a very high cba mix core of Row bottom witfit and lucis single The next set of players to come through I think is going to change completely this this coming season And one of the players that I'm looking at to jump in there is Ella Smith who has come across From the Lions Form of Brisbane Lions Academy play actually didn't get much opportunity with the Lions But she is phenomenal with her inside work. It's one of her strengths of her game But she also has terrific speed and endurance which is a very interesting pick It means she can play in a number of different roles around the ground We saw her on the inside in their first practice match But I think this coming weekend It's something that I'm hoping with an actual stream so I can watch with my own eyes I can see with a little bit more hopefully she is one that Is going to get more minutes and I think could make a low cash for us Yeah, she's someone that I had not really considered in the faintest Until we just started seeing a little bit of media out there a few pieces about her as a recent kind of free agent Drunk will trade pick up. I do think that she presents as a fascinating option. Now I hope she doesn't repeat what we saw, unfortunately, from a Lana G last year, which is promised the world and then really failed to show the ceiling because we did often see that some of the the lower down score is at Gold Coast really did have a floor. But yeah, I can't hate on it. And I think maybe if she doesn't start a season in our sides, she could become a downgrade or someone that we look to jump on because she does have the role. Do you know how many smiths there are? We start to have a guess. There are there seven. More and there's actually one two three smiths with two initials because there's that many smiths. There are 12. So what you're actually looking for here is EK smith. Not is the LG smith. I'm trying to figure out the LG. LG. Oh, throws it around. Wait, I didn't know. There's also a B case smith. Just to keep you on your toes. Oh, that's it. There's just there's just a million smiths to pick from. So in terms of maybe some other players that you could think about in the forward line as rookies, the one that presents the interesting option to me is Georgia Clark. She is a key forward for Colin wood who are in dire need of key forwards. They already had a need and then they lost Nell Morris Dalton for the season about a week ago. She's someone that has come in. I think she maybe even averaged like 70 or 75 in the coach's league, which is really good scoring for a key forward and can kick an absolute bag of goals now. She hasn't exactly lit it up in the couple of games. She played in the VFLW, but a name to keep an eye on. And then the final one is someone that we've seen. Jono talk about in the past and that's Annaly McKee who's come from Brisbane. Jono, did you have anything to spruke for her? Yeah, I think she's got a very challenging season ahead of her being the new key forward for the wooden Spooners of last year. It's challenging place to start, but I think she has shown really, really good potential. I really like what she showed in that practice game against Richmond. I think from the looks of it, it's her spot up forward. I think she's going to be the number one target inside 50 for the Bulldogs. And I thought she had a pretty safe pair of hands. She was good at honestly a very impressive tackler for someone who they'll height. I'm really excited by what she can deliver this season. I'm thinking a 40 is possible, which honestly that's that's upside for a rookie. That's a lot of value. You do say 40 is her upside. That would also represent her highest ever score. Equal highest ever because that is what she scored against Port Adelaide last year. And look, it's hardly better than what she's managed to score in a few games at the VFLW level last this season for the Western Bulldogs with a 56 and a 32. Or be it with a couple of goals when she did score 56. Yeah, look, if I'm Ali Anderson kicking inside 50, there are a lot of talented options that I'm taking at the Lions. You know, it's it's hard when you are behind someone like a Dakota Davidson. I think the exciting thing with Anneli and McKee is that she is the clearly the tallest forward that they've got. I think the Bulls just going to gravitate in a direction a little more than she's seen in the past. The practice game of the weekend, the one big absence from both that game as well as our discussion tonight is the number one draft pick. Kristi Lee West, the two line segue to the end of the episode right out of my mouth. Kristi Lee West in turn, I went pick one, the double hyphen. She is not someone that I'm hot on picking because she is a very expensive and be playing. I'm going to call it one of the most difficult roles in a team that we don't expect to do very well. And see, we didn't even get to see her on an event. Yeah, we didn't even see her in the match simulation. I just think that she's likely to be playing as an athletic half-forward, potentially in the midfield, but it didn't sound like it was set in stone when we talked to Elizabeth Georgia status earlier in the preseason. I just think that as much as, you know, fantasy circles go pick one, you pick them in your side, they're the most talented fantasy scorer. Don't think that's true in this case. And I would be avoiding Kristi Lee West in turn. Yeah, I'm considering Mickey over just on the basis that I'm saving $120,000. I think that's a notable difference why I would consider one or not the other. Like 110%. That is the difference between picking Gabby O Sullivan and Georgia Clark. Wow. Like there is a that 120k represents a huge difference in potential scoring. So yeah, I'm fully on board with it. And it's probably, you know, fairly fitting that we end our episode on forward with a huge warning against picking a player that is otherwise surprisingly highly owned. I don't know about you guys, but I only have two forwards that are locked in for me at the moment. And that's pounder and too good. Normally we would talk about who the rest of the players that we've got picked. But do you guys have any other locks in your forward line at the moment? Oh, I'm I think it would be a surprise if Ellie Gavallis left my side. Beyond that, I'm not feeling comfortable on any of them at all. Mel. Mel's doing her pondering, staring at her team face. I'm wondering if there's anyone in Mel's forward line that survives the episode. That's what I'm wondering right now. Oh, yes. Well, too good. And Brandon. And Katie Brennan. Katie. Yeah. Katie, you've done it again. Yep. I like her. Yeah. And I like Richmond. And I want, I've realised this actually. I learned a lesson when I had Sarah Varia in my side a few seasons ago. Don't pick defenders from clubs that you want to do well, such as your own, because you'll never be happy either your defender is doing well on fantasy and your club sucks or vice versa. So flipping that strategy, I'm going to pick forwards from clubs I do like and I like Richmond. And on your target, not a reliable enough option for me. So KB and you come. That is extremely happy. Or extremely sad. Here we come. Unbelievable. Sage advice. Well, I don't think I could come up with anything better to end the episode. And also our line by line position previews on. I hope you've enjoyed what you've got from us in these position free views episodes. You're going to hear more from us in the coming weeks before the fantasy season starts. You're going to be getting a preseason match update and kind of an up and down. Where do we think players are going and then you'll also get a bunch of other content for us for the rest of the preseason. You can find us on our free kick W podcast fee. You can also find us on the official AFLW podcast feed. You can find articles for each of the episodes that we're doing in these position preview series in addition to other content on the AFLW. So on afl.com.au written by myself and Jono and hopefully they'll provide you know B.A. somewhat useful resource as we try and navigate what is always a difficult off season. For me, I've been Liam and I am on Twitter at Liam aflw fantasy. Mel, where can they find you? I am on Twitter as free kick Mel. And I'm Jono on Twitter at free kick Jono. We hope you've had a wonderful time listening to us today and good luck for your team planning. See ya. Bye!