Football Returns! Plus: Breaking Down the AFC East

[MUSIC] All right, welcome to the Ringer gambling show Friday edition cousin Sal here Joe houses here Rahim Palmer and Anthony DeBundo. I am back. I feel like I was in Cooperstown, New York for three weeks. I was not inducted sadly, but I watched my boy compete very proud of him. Six and one lost in the quarter finals out of 102 teams, but you know what, fellas? It's time to get down to business house. You felt it. That was a game last night. We're doing previews, baby, NFL previews. Well, that game I'd like a thank you from America because on the Wednesday Ringer gambling show, I said, yes, I'm going to be watching that football game and yes, I'm going to bet it. Of course, the classic bet is the stupid under on the whole thing. 35 points was the total. Zero points in the first quarter of that football game and then 34 in the second quarter and the bet was done, but it was wildly exciting, cousin Sal. Football is back. The highest it is back. I'm very excited. You wouldn't stoop so low, Rahim, to bet this game. DeBundo, I don't think you would either, right? Well, this is like the first year and like 15 years, I haven't bet the Hall of Fame game. Oh, yeah. I actually wanted to take Carolina, but I was just so busy. I was locked in and prepping that I was like, you know what, I'm not going to bet it. What a fun result that would have been, right? You can watch your hands of the whole season with that. Yeah, DeBundo, I don't know. You did not play it, right? I feel like you would not. I did not. I don't have a strong opinion on this whole thing. Like I think people, like you must bet or you must not bet or if you bet call the number, people can do what they want. I did not wager. I have in the past wager on the Hall of Fame game, but this year there was nothing particularly exciting to me. And I'll be I'll be completely honest for full transparency. I did not watch the game. Okay. That's fine. I'm back and never the last. This is a ranger gambling show presented by Fandall football season is back and there's never been a better time to get in the game because Fandall is giving rewards all season long, whether picking a champion or building future same game Parley's Fandall has recovered the app is fast, easy to use. And when you win, you'll get paid instantly head to Fandall.com slash gamblers to get started today. You have to be 21 or older and select states 18 or older and DC can tuck your Wyoming. If you have a gambling problem call 1 800 gambler call 1 888 7887777 or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut. Yeah, we'll watch the ones account, but I am with you. Like why get over people like I have no shame. By the way, there was more money bet on this game or him than any MLB or WNBA game last night. House I had the dog in the under on a teaser. I can see where he said spinning off a freaking. Wait, wait, wait, how did you get a teaser because I used to crush preseason teasers and that was like a golden age of Betty. So the fact that I haven't been able to find any preseason teasers like if you bring that back, oh my god, I'll talk to you after. I mean, I'm doing you want this is crazy. Well, I took the seven and a half fine with the cardinal. So that last play didn't matter. And but I went house. I went under 40 and a half. I thought that was a miracle 40 and a half. And like you said, 3330 the highest scoring all the game of all time. But you know, like, whatever, I figure I've lost plenty of money on cars and back before he was not a problem. Haynes King was not a problem. We'll talk about that. But I feel like we have to welcome football like they're inviting us in even though it's preseason. Like when you go to someone's house, the bundle for dinner party, even it's just or derives, you bring something, right? That's kind of what I did. I brought my losing teaser. What would I bring to football? I'll tell you what, I will tune in to the first quarter of the cold scheme. Is that enough? Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I that's what you said to what you want. It's a no, there's no shame though embedding this is what I'm saying. No, no shame. Yeah. The one thing it's like a lot of the sharps will be like, oh, we make all of our best money during the preseason. That's where the edges are to be found. Right. All right. That's good for you. And I am a little bit too in the weeds and the other sports to like be fully locked into football yet. I'm not there yet. I'm ready to preview it, but I'm not ready to fully watch it yet. What are other sports is there now? Yeah. You understand that Chris Sanchez pitched in Citizens Bank Park last night. I mean, would you have to lay like minus 320? And guess what? I did it. And guess what? We won. Even he was watching the football game from the dugout. One thing you could maybe get a, and again, house, you can't overreact at these things, but I always overreact offensive rookie in the year. A lot of disrespect for Bryce Young who took his team to the playoffs. This Haynes King runs it in ends the game. He had 180 passing yards two touchdowns and 39 rushing. I'm looking for his number. And I'm looking for Carson Beck's number 15 for 1988 and a touchdown. What either of these interest you house? I mean, the Carson Beck is not lunacy to me. He looked comfortable. I mean, you know, we we we we understand what's going on there. The problem is rookie of the year for a team that wins less than four games doesn't tend to land. So that that's why the odds are there. But I the king kid. I mean, the open touchdown. I mean, you could have thrown it 50 yards in the air and the guy would have been open. And he zinged one off his hands basically out of bounds. I basically switched change the game after that. The Red Sox baseball game was more exciting than watching that kid. You know, for balls and high balls, but more points more runs in that game. Actually, then this one. Carson Beck, like, there's something there. I don't not kind of bet I'm rookie of the year. Competition is not particularly players. This year. Since when I mean, like, I mean, you got to Kobe, present, you got Gardner, Menshu. Yeah. All right. You have pretty much the odds on favor for rookie of the year. And Jeremiah love. Who's going to like soak up all the carries. So like, this is a non starter for me. No, I'm taking gave him a five to one on Wednesday. We talked about Beck. And now he's down 19 to one. Well, Helium, seventh favorite. That's how interestingly mediocre this rookie classes. And those of might not play football this year. He's the second favorite. And Beck is most likely not playing for the Cardinals. He's the seventh favorite. Lemons already heard. He's the sixth favorite. But in terms of you guys know how this goes. Like the starting quarterback, if he is the starting quarterback, and he won't be your right, Reim, until something happens. Yeah. It gets a little bit of a nod because they have, you know, they get the reps. So only in terms of quarterbacks, only Mendoza is ahead of him. I have that right. The bundle. I'm looking at that. Yeah. All right. Yeah. All right. We'll see. I know. I feel like any, but I think price should be favorite over love. Yeah. I don't mind that. You're doing that. That's not going to be easier past carries. More prime time games. I mean, does anybody going to be paying attention to the Cardinals this year? They're buried in the late window. Yeah. All right. Well, listen, we're going to preview all these divisions. We're going to start. We have plays of the day. We just handicap the biggest headline. The second biggest headline is the bundle catching a foul ball. We'll wrap with that. My God. Though, I don't know what odds. I didn't see that on Fando anywhere else. But anyway, it happened. And it's over. It's first foul. Did you have to steal it from a kid? That's what I want to know. No, no, it was crazy. I mean, it's a whole arc. Let's talk about it now. Let's do it now. Yeah. We're going to go. The really is a two part, it's a two part story. So this goes back to this to earlier in the spring. I was at a game against the Reds with our our colleague, Cliff Augustin. And the rain started to come and Cliff went up under the under the overhangs. He wasn't getting so, but I was still in my seat. And it my section was like a third full. And there was a perfect tailor made Bryson's dot backspinning lob foul foul ball coming to my hands. And it went right through them. It just slipped right off. And I got booed by everybody. And I had to put my hands over my face. I couldn't believe it. And the kid, you know, the kid, the guy was like 35. He got the ball in the section next to me after it went off my hands. So fast forward to Wednesday night, Citizens Bank Park, Dailin Liles up 30th inning. Top of the third. He hits a foul ball. And it's immediately. I'm like, Oh, wow, this is like a tailor made foul ball again. Now, but this time, this section is packed. And when I tell you that the ball could not have been more right at me, I had to do a little lean lean back. It hit off the top of my hands. And then started to fall in front of me when I did the basket two handed catch, put the ball in the air, got a nice little cheer. Took a selfie, you know, got the ball. Then I turned around. I realized there was a lovely 12 year old behind me. I gave him the ball. He took the ball. He called like 12 year old. He called like three of his buddies. He's like, you're not going to believe this. I just got a ball at the game. But tell like I was on TV. That's and I told him I was like, you need to juice the story more. I said, you got to tell him you caught it. One handed like you, you got to play it out. You can't just say that the guy in front of you gave you the ball. So as the night went on, he started exaggerating the story further and further when he would call his buddies. So it was pretty funny until the fillies lost in 11 innings. But yeah, my first time ever catching a foul ball or a ball in general that wasn't like tossed to me by a player at a Foules game. So what, let me just get in here. So I was all on your side because you posted a picture online when you holding a ball in the stadium, which really anyone could do. And we discussed it on our chain. And I said it's minus 600 that it bounced off your body and you retrieved it under your seat just to be a, you know, antagonist. But you said down and I will then you explain just how it happened and you showed, you demonstrated. But now that I hear you told a boy to lie about exaggerate how he caught the ball. Now I'm thinking you might be doing the same. How's do you feel this way? Oh, this is a good one. Wow. The honor is being attacked. Well, there should be footage, right? Isn't there a way to pull it up? Where's the video clip, the bundle? So I have a friend who works for NBC Sports Filion. He did text me and say, what inning was the, you know, which batter? And I said it was lie on the third. However, the broadcast did not cut to the seats. It was actually during that inning that the random fan came in and called the celebrity fan who did the incredible job of calling the third inning the other night. Yeah, I was like 70 years old. He sounded like Vince Cully. But they did not, unfortunately, get me on TV. That would have been great. But it'll forever be a mystery, because I know I guess I'll buy it for now. What are we going to do? Congratulations to you into what was his name, Simon? Who was it? 12 year old? I actually never got his name. I mean, never got his name. You just just that he was lovely. All right. Good job by you. Nice work. All right. Let's do it, guys. We have eight of these to do. We're essentially doing these every Monday and Friday. There's going to be a Friday. We're up. Whatever division previews NFL. I will not be participating in making picks. I'm doing these August 27th with Simmons. I think they run that weekend. I'll sit back. I'll set the table. I'll listen to your guys thoughts. And then I'll steal your takes for my sit down with Simmons on the 27th. That's how this is going to work. So let's start. I know they didn't win the division last year, but I'm going in order of whose favorite in the division this year. AFC East, bills 10 and a half, over's minus 120. The under is even their minus 130 to win the division five to one for the conference 11 to one for the Super Bowl new stadium, new coach, McDermott out Joe Brady in after being in the OC for two seasons 12 and five last year. They lost in a conference. Cemes, a gut wrenching loss to the Broncos. All their playoff losses are gut wrenching. I throw to you house how you play in this over under 10 to half. So I have the Buffalo bills at a slight over. I have them worse than last year, but over their win total, a win total of 10 and a half. I have the Buffalo bills winning 11 games this season. It comes down to this. Do I think that Josh Allen is going to play either all of the games or nearly all the games and the answer to that is yes. And so I am compelled because the Buffalo bills have not won fewer than 11 games since Josh Allen's rookie year in 2018. Six straight years above 11 games, the schedule is fine. I like what they're doing in terms of the ball and Josh Allen's hands. I feel like we can kind of run it back. I understand the skepticism that is out there as it relates to their defense. I do think that I'm more inclined to think that this Jim Leonard character is going to with his installation of the three four, a positionless three four and the addition of Bradley Chubb. The bills defense is the same every single year and the bill still win 11 games. They haven't been good. They were one of the worst runstoppers in the NFL last year. They really didn't do anything to improve that. They continue to have compromised depth at linebacker. Fine. This is we've been watching this team with Josh Allen at the helm for long enough and you know I'm going to go ahead and just ride with what history has demonstrated to us. Over 10 and a half. Yeah. The Bundo House talks about that defense. They signed Bradley Chubb to a three year deal. They trade back. I think three times in the draft at the first round and they get the edge from Clemson who's sacks went down but he had a great senior bowl. What are you saying for this team over under 10 and a half? I think House and I might disagree on like every team this episode. This is not going to be very fun podcast for us. Of course it is. But it also could be really fun. I could. I think the bills have been dealt the toughest schedule. Maybe they've ever been dealt in this era. I mean last year, I remember I bet bills one seed. I was like they're going to cakewalk to the one seed. This won't be a problem for them. Look at the divisions week. The rest of the conference is so down. Candice City has a much tougher schedule. Baltimore has a much tougher schedule and we were right about Candice City in Baltimore. But we weren't right about Buffalo because the Boso bills go out and they just lose two to three games every year where you're like what? What is going on? And this year there just isn't any margin for air. Like their schedule is is brewed in the AFC this year and they open Houston Detroit Chargers Patriots Rams. You know those first five games. So there's not going to be any run way for the new DC to like ease his way in. And I think one of the reasons their defense has always held up okay is because they always had you know six or seven or eight bad bad quarterbacks that McDermott could always feast on. I don't see that with this team. I understand that some of the improvements like DJ Moore maybe helps them beat offensive you know man coverage more often because they couldn't beat man last year either. That was the first year where Josh Allen was bad against man. But like this defense like like how set bottom against the run gave him a ton of explosive plays and you know do they hey do they even have corners that we trust if let him wants to run this man defense that he likes to do. Benford's okay he's been inconsistent and he's been heard a bunch and I don't love their linebackers in coverage. So you're left with a really incomplete defense and an offense that is so relied on Josh Allen that eventually there's there's got to be some risk there. Now I get it like they've literally finished between first and fourth. E. P. A. Per drives six straight years. But but not enough this year under 10 and a half. All right. So we're split there so far. Raheem. I should note for the schedule the AFC East place the AFC West and the NFC North. So inherently that's going to be tough schedule. I'm always torn on this Raheem because you you could be like you could see a Buffalo team like oh that's a ridiculous schedule. The bundle went over the top the first five they have seven standalone games they put Thanksgiving Christmas the bundle 12 to 16 chiefs Patriots Packers bears Broncos so it doesn't get any easier until like really the last two weeks. But Raheem the other the flip side is they always play a first place schedule. And they're always I think there's a couple of interesting things here and I think both House and DeBundo both hit on it. So you know Josh Allen is kind of similar to DeC Press got where he has a very high floor. Now obviously DeC Press gots floor is about eight wins. Josh Allen's floor has been 11 wins you know since his second year they've always won 11 games but I think this is probably the worst Buffalo roster that we've ever seen and particularly one of the defensive side of the ball. I mean you lose pretty much all of your defensive players. You lose Joey Boce you lose DeCwano, Shack Thompson, Campbell Lewis, Matt Milano, Tray White you lose so many guys and I know you bring in Bradley Chubb and I know Ellavers should be healthy this year but you're talking about a team who was 31st and run EPA perplex you could run on his team and not only could you run on his team and keep Josh Allen off the field they got explosives. I mean you got Bijan Robinson and Atlanta Falkers running for 200 yards. You had the Baltimore Ravens running for 200 yards. I mean they were basically running a train on his defense, Devon H and you know Anthony DeBundo mentioned the the schedule to start the year. Well let's go weeks 12 through 16 where you actually have to play KC New England, Green Bay, Chicago, and Denver. Those who are a playoff team so you know I run my model and obviously I know a lot of people are sick of me talking about my model but the model has worked so shut up. So here's the thing. I have a bet on I have a bet on a PM on how many how many model references Raheem will make in this episode. This episode of this season. No man I mean here's the thing the model has it at 11 games so it's right there at the floor but when I look at this roster I'm just to me I think this is a this is a team that could go under so I think when you're looking at the Buffalo Bills to me I think you need to be approaching this from an alt standpoint because if Josh Allen wasn't on this team we're talking about a team that's probably one of the worst teams in the league and we're still unsure about this coaching staff. I mean I look Joe Brady I mean he's done a tremendous job in terms of the offense but what are you gonna get from the defensive coordinator? Like that's still up in the air so I'm gonna pass on this but I think if you're gonna approach the Buffalo Bills I think you have to approach it from the long tail outcomes either you play an alternate win total and that's something that we've talked about in the past because you see teams tend to go two or three games above or below or you look at this schedule and you say look if they come out and they come out hot against you know this this schedule of Houston Detroit the Chargers New England and the Rams Josh Allen is a shoe in for MVP or Joe Brady is the shoe in for coach of the year at 1501 so I think you approach it from the long tail outcomes but I'm passing on a season win total. All right let the record show we once a good test yeah all the ones really good test and let the record show that Rahim in the very first over under and our preview is passing on the Buffalo Bills. He said the numbers right during the numbers he's on the number that's not so well it's a hat they make it a half so that you could go over on it's okay you know the bundle did this last year and he received endless ridicule from Bill Simmons. I wish you were. Bill, let me for this, especially for what I'm gonna say about his team. So, Bill, we're in the same age. - Yeah. - Yeah. - Some more Bill, show me some love. I just wanna make a quick observation in terms of the schedule situation and the observation that Dream just shared. All of those guys that Dream mentioned in terms of not being on this roster anymore. Look at the aggregate number of games those guys actually played football games for the last season. They didn't have them last season. I don't think it matters. The thing about the schedule, the early part, they yes, it's challenging. And all of these teams are forecasted to have strong wind totals, but they get Detroit and the chargers and New England all in a row at home in that brand new stadium, which I think is going to be. - We didn't mention that. - Really impressive. And Detroit, especially without Terry and Arnold, that's a game changer to me. So, I think there's a reasonable chance that Bill's come out and go three and two over that first. - But you just hit on something interesting. Because a lot of times you get into these new stadiums and these new stadiums don't have the home field of advantage that the previous stadium has. So, I mean, that's something the monitor as well. And, you know, there's another model reference. (laughs) You tend to run these regressions on these home field of vanishes and it's not the same in the new stadium. So, that's something that I'm gonna be monitoring going forward. - No, it's a different playing surface too. Like the opportunity to be indoors more often. Josh Allen has historically been dominant in those situations. They're actually built to play. People talk about like, oh, they're built for the snow. Like, this team hasn't really been built for the snow in a while the way they play football. So, you get them indoors. They should be a lot of fun. I think Houston's a perfect test for them week one. I mean, last year, the biggest years ago, they were number one against man. And last year, they were number 11 offensively. So, Houston's gonna man up. They're gonna press. They're gonna play aggressive defensively. And they're gonna say, all right, what do you got? Can you beat us? And in the past, the answer for Josh Allen has been no. He's had like two of his worst games ever against the Texans. So, that'll be a good opportunity to test them a week one. - How do we feel about DJ Moore? Do we feel like it's gonna make this offense better? Because I mean, the reports on the camp is that he's been solid, but you gotta have your reservations based on how he's looked with Chicago. And especially how he ended that season. - I mean, I think so. I mean, we were forced to get excited about Tarell Shavers and Keon Coleman last year for the bills, who by the way, are still on the roster. And basically like third and fourth on the Dept chart. But yeah, I mean, every bit helps. But I mean, also the home field, I feel like it goes on outside the stadium with the meat heads jumping through tables. The maybe not necessarily the big advantage indoors. But all right, an interesting team. But Rahim, like how do we, and I fall victim to this too. I look at the schedule, I'm like, oh, that is a dominant schedule, but we pick these games and we judge these games through the lens of gambling. They're favorite in 13 games. I've not looked at each line. I'm not cheating on guests of lines. I just know that they're favorite in 13 games. Shouldn't that dispel any, yeah, but they have the tough the schedule thing? - Well, I mean, the, the, the, the, the, the, the cheese were favorite in a bunch of games last year. And they went six and 11. - So. - Yeah. - Then the market is not always a fish. - More times than not. - The margin of how big their favorite, I think matters a lot. Like Buffalo looks like they're going to have a lot of games where they're like two and a half, you know. - I got you, but all these games that we say are tough. They're favorite. You know what I'm saying? Like so, don't chalk up Houston, Detroit, and New England is losses in the first five. I don't know. It's right around there. All right. So Rahim passes, you two are split the bundle and house. Let's go to last year's AFC East champ. Is that how it worked? - Oh my God. 14 and three. The New England Patriots. They're also attending the half, the Overs minus 140. The others minus 140, Overs plus 120. They're plus 130 to win the division. Eight to one for the conference in 17 to one for the Super Bowl. Mike Vrayball, second year. An uneventful offseason. I can't think of anything really. But as far as the team goes, transactions, AJ Brown from the Eagles. Much tougher schedule this season compared to last year when they played conference USA. But does it warrant a three and a half game regression from 14 to 10 and a half? How shall I start with you? - Yeah, so I am playing New England as a tiny under. 'Cause I have Buffalo at 11 wins in New England at 10 wins. And they might switch places, but look, I'm not gonna do the Super Bowl loser hangover thing. 'Cause that's not really truly a thing. You know, if you look at over the last 25 years, nearly 70% of the teams that finished as the loser in the Super Bowl make it back to the playoffs. And yes, there is a standard regression to the number of wins that those Super Bowl losers have. And it tends to be in that just over two games, two to three game kind of range. This to me is just the great unknowns, the fascinating tests that's in front of us around the easiest schedule. In perhaps the history of modern NFL and how to handicap a team that shows up with mostly the same defense and one tremendous improvement on offense. But when you put that through the blender of, how does this team fare against the schedule that they're going to confront this season? It's not gonna be rookie quarterbacks. It's not gonna be backup quarterbacks. And it's going to be teams with functional offenses. They don't get to play the easiest schedule in the NFL on every single basis. If you go through the quarterbacks that they played and we could, you know, I don't need to rehash the playoff part of it. But they played Quennyures in week 18, Brady Cook in week 17, Tyler Huntley had to come in for Lamar Jackson in week 16. They played rookie Jackson Dart in week 13. They played Joe Flacco back up when he was with the Bengals. In week 12, they played Dylan Gabriel. They played Cam Ward. They played Spencer Rattler. Now to their credit, they went 12 and 1 against teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. That's what you're supposed to do. That's the arrival of Raeble and McDaniel and stabilizing the institution of the New England Patriots. They unleash Drake May. All of that is entirely appropriate. They played the bottom nine past defenses in the entire NFL last year. That's not who they're playing this year. So I'm just playing a tiny bit of regression. They also were number one in the entire NFL in health across the board. They finished inside the top 10 in terms of the health of their guys on both sides of the ball, notwithstanding Milton Williams, you know, only playing 12 games. So it's just a small step back. I still think they're going to make the playoffs. I had them right behind Buffalo at 10 wins. And that's the way I'm looking at it. You're thinking them stealing Stefan Diggs. Your team stealing from the Patriots is going to move the needle. That's the big move. No, there's a-- I don't think that. I'm not going to give a pick just yet, but I will say there is a chance they could be better than they were last year and not win as many games. Is that for the bundle? Damn, that was the exact same take I was going to say. Right. Totally exact same take. Sorry, Rae. Oh, my god. Because if you look at the schedule, there's a lot to be made of it. It was all-- it was disgusting last year what they went through. But compared to the bills, the bundle, who would you rather have as your extra games? At Seattle, at Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, or-- Let me get this right-- at Houston, at the Rams and Baltimore. Yeah, I'll take the first one. Right. And that's the Patriots. How the hell would this happen again? That's what I said. We talked about this earlier this year. We said like it was actually better to be first-place schedules. Had a tougher run than the second place in the AFC because Casey, Baltimore, and Buffalo didn't even win their division. And a lot of people like Houston-- Yeah, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh. A lot of people like Houston more than the Jags. Right. You know. Right. All right. So what's for them? Yep. I'm going over. You know, House made a point about the one big move to this offense. I think it's more than that. I think there's numerous moves they made that make this offense way more formidable as the schedule maybe beefens up a little bit. You know, last year they were still top seven, even once you adjust offensively for the schedule. So were they a top three offense? Probably not, but like top seven, yes. And they didn't just add AJ Brown. They added Romeo Dops, who I am still a big fan of. They have a lot of flexibility with those three guys. Right. We've seen AJ Brown operate out of the slot even when he was with Mike Vrable in Tennessee way back when they used to run those deep digs. And he was super effective over the middle. And that was like-- Philly was like, we don't use the middle of the field. But guess what? AJ Brown's really good over the middle of the field. So I'm excited to see what that looks like. Booty was like their deep threat, but he's more than capable of being an underneath guy as well, which he has been at other past stops and he was in college. And then they went and got better blocking tight ends behind Hunter Henry, where last year they could not run at all. The run game was a joke. And a lot of that had to do with the lack of blocking tight ends. So I understand why there's questions about their O-line and whether it can hold up. I think there are tuckers, a good ad. Will Campbell, year two, hopefully he goes better than year one. He probably can't go worse than the second half of year one, although that was post injury. He wasn't the same player. But I think this offense, the other reason I'm really bullish, there's 21 new offensive play callers. There's 14 new defensive play callers. That means there's only eight teams in the NFL who have the same head coach offense coordinator and defensive coordinator from last season. and New England's one of those teams. They have their personnel in place, they trust their guys, they like what they got from both coordinators without both did a good job last year. So I think they get with a little bit of a leg up when you consider the upcoming season and you're like, all right, they're adding new pieces offensively, given Drake Maymore responsibility. Can their defense hold up? That is where I'm a little more dubious, but I don't really think there's a big difference between New England and Buffalo at this point. - That DC's not new, that was the interim last year. - Does that curve? - So he took over early. - Yeah, yeah. - When health issues from Thrill Williams. - All right, yeah. - Raheem, sorry. - This is the clear best team in division. I don't know what everybody else is seeing. - I don't know if I agree with that. - No, the owner reason, don't you see? - They're like the same. - No, they're not the same. The owner reason why, the only reason why Buffalo has a higher wind total is because they have Josh Allen. - Well, that means-- - It's part of it, Raheem. That does keep you. - I mean, I know that's part of it, but I'm just saying, - Foster for roster, the New England Patriots are better. And then if you look at what Drake made it, I mean, let's be real. Drake May was absolutely incredible last year. You're talking about a guy who threw for almost 4,400 yards. 31 touchdowns, eight interceptions. He was first in completion percentage as 72% of his passing. He had 450 rushing yards. I mean, this offense, what were they? They were first in EBA per play, but they were 25th in running the ball. They could not run the ball. And they were 24th in pressure rate. Like, allow. And May was 30th in sex. So the offensive line wasn't very good. They couldn't run the ball. And Drake May was still phenomenal. Then now you add AJ Brown, you add Romeo Dives, you add Elijah Verrotecker, you slide my guy. What's my guy's name? Jared Wilson over the center. I think the offensive line should be a little bit better. And then I also look at the defense. And I think the defense started to come on to his own towards the end of the year. And if you look at the defense, when Milton Williams and Christian Barmer were on the field at the same time, the defense was a lot better. So I think the defense came into its own, like they're almost like the inverse Rams. You look at the Rams at the end of the last year. The defense was trash. Well, the Patriots defense got better. So I think the Patriots are the clear favorite in this division. I know another model reference. I have the Patriots at 10.7 wins. I just think they're the best team in this division. I'm going over 9 1/2 minus 150. I know a lot of juice. Give me the Patriots over 9 1/2. And we'll talk about the division later, but I'm going to be on the Patriots. All right. I talk about Raheem's model all the time. But Raheem's model had the bills having a better record than the Patriots. But he says the Patriots are the clear winner of this division. Well, and then he played the win total at a full game under, just lay in the juice, which is fine. I'll do that too. I think they're going to win 10 games. So over 9 1/2 at minus 150. But what was on our rundown sheet was over 10 1/2. That's fine. Play the under. No, I mean, here's the thing. Here's the thing about our rundown sheet. Because the tiniest of needles are going to-- Here's the thing about our rundown sheet. Our rundown sheet said bills under 10 1/2 wins at minus 140. Yeah, it was very close. So it was like-- So it was like-- So wherever the producer is a producer, that's what I'm interested in. I love you to death. But you just pick in which one you want. And I pick you. You could blame me, Rahim. You don't have to go after the producers. I made it by whichever-- I love you too. I love you too. Well, the smaller VIG was the one we went with. And that's the only way to-- OK, otherwise I am. I didn't know. It's all right. I mean, I'm coming to blow. I'm looking to the first episode. So that's where I ran with. Gotcha. I go with the smaller VIG. I mean, of course-- hey, why don't you go 8 1/2? I bet that's 220. Oh, no. I ain't going to blow. It's only 10 cents, though. That's great. Well, what am I supposed to do? Just because you want it your way, I'll take it. I'll go differently. All right. Let's just start making up our own lines. 10 is just 10. Well, we did. It's a battle for the market. It's a good play. I don't mind over nine and a half. Of course. Fine. If anything falls off this year, I think it's going to be the defense, not the offense. People are baking in regression for their offense. Oh, they're playing real teams this year. Like, you talked about Rahim. The defense coming on at the second half, I do think a good amount of that had to do with the quarterbacks that they meant that House mentioned they played-- You're the reverse. Yes, it's me. You played a lot of nobody's. Well, how about this? You don't have to speculate. He was fucking awful the last three weeks, including the playing of weeks. Well, the play-- That's not the real Drake May, but maybe the first 17 weeks is at the real Drake May, right? So, I don't know. You know one thing I will say-- The offense did collapse. I think this is very important. They play Seattle Week 1. They have five point dogs or whatever. Was it three and a half hours? Three and a half. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, I'm sorry. Sorry. I got him written down. It's OK. Which, yeah. They play Seattle on the road a week one. They play Pittsburgh at home. They play Jacksonville and they play Buffalo. I think there's going to be an opportunity to buy you on the New England Patriots in season if they start off slow. And I don't know if anybody you guys read Billy Walter's book. But if you are or sports better, you're watching the show, obviously, you should read his book. One thing he says is that he runs another model reference, anyway. He runs this model. And for the first game of the year, the Super Bowl loser is worth one point to the spread to the other team. 0.8 to be exact. And then for the first four games of the season, it's worth about a half a point to the other team. So maybe you get past those first four games. You got three games on the road. Seattle, you got Jacksonville, you got Buffalo. Maybe you get past that. And then you buy you on the wingland at that point. Maybe you play some long tail outcomes. Maybe you play New England and win a Super Bowl. New England to make the playoffs. New England win a division. Because I think the model said, those first four games, it's advantageous to the opposing team. I think it's interesting the first game, I guess since we're now going to talk about the number. Seattle 3 1/2 was the Super Bowl line. Right. Literally no football has been played since, except for the Hall of Fame game, since that game and the first game of the season, is Seattle at home on banner night, laying the same number. They lay in the Super Bowl. It's a little bit of an indication. Maybe not of what the market thinks of New England, but maybe the market thinks of Seattle. Well, there MVP of that Super Bowl game, you're referring to, it was no longer on the team. It is not as true. That's a point. Maybe there's something in there. All right, now we got it. I don't, I guess we have to do this. Because there are two other teams in this division. And one of them is in New York Jets. And they're over on there's at five and a half. Another pays minus 120, the Overs even. They're 20 to one from the division, 125 for the conference. And 321 to win the Super Bowl. A joke of the team. They had zero interceptions in the first eight weeks. And then zero in the last nine weeks. That's how I split it up. That's a total of zero interceptions. So Frank Reich steps in. Geno Smith's going to be the signal caller to start. There with the only team with three first round pick. So can they improve on their three wins last season? House three and 14 last year. Our friends at Fandall predict they will win two more than that. Two and a half really and five and a half. What do you like? Yeah, I'm playing the over because I think the Jets very quietly had a really good off season. They made a lot of smart additions. Both and it was curious to me that they're not doing a full tear down and just trying grab draft pick kind of strategy. They are doing a tiny bit of a retool. They added talent on both sides of the ball, even after telling us that they intended to tank the latter half of the season. And they certainly did a great job at that. I mean, Brady Cook, those games that he played were literally horrendous for Jets fans. But I think that the single thing that that holds me back from being bullish about this Jets team is the coaching staff. I mean, I think the talent and the coaching staff are a little bit of a mismatch. I think that they bolstered the offensive side of the ball and the defensive side of the ball. And the regression that's coming from the no turnovers last year, it translates all by itself just if they have a slightly a below average turnover situation this upcoming season. They will be better and asking them to get to, you know, they went three and seven over their last 10 games. That this is looks to me like a six or seven win team. Do it. Go ahead. I'm not doing it. God, I forgot. So I'm playing a tiny over on the Jets. All right. The bundle, which way you're going, you know, like to get that belly, the edge from Texas Tech, you had like 14, half sacks. They've said, I know there's some injuries already tied in for Oregon. He's a freak athletically. They got the wide receiver Cooper. They did nicely in the draft. They certainly rebuilt better than I'll compare them to the dolphins. How would you say in this? Yeah, there may be one, they're like one step further along in the rebuild, along with Miami is who's, I think this year fully punting. I don't know if the Jets are a full punt. But my numbers say I should bet the over. I can't do it. I can't. I can't trust coaches. And honestly, like for a defensive coach to come in, we all agree, like Aaron Gladden never really had a chance of being, like, the Jets never had a chance of being good last year with their personnel. But to not force like any turnovers and to not be good at tackling and to not be a good defense in any way, shape or form, when that was supposed to be the thing that you're kind of known for from Detroit, that feels like a, like a blaring red flag and I was trying to find odds for most or first coach to be fired. And I couldn't. I think the most interesting question about the jets this year might be not do they win the division? Do they come in third? How many wins does Aaron Glen need to save his job for 2027? Hmm. Well, I mean, maybe just focus on what you said about the turnovers because that's supposed to be his thing. And if they went from zero to six, six would be also horrible, but a huge improvement and win them a cup might win them a gamer to right. Right. That's the thing. So I don't know. All right. So you're going. But then it's like Frank Reich. Okay. Look, Frank Reich had some great ideas and was a great offensive coach about what nine years ago when the Eagles won the Super Bowl. And he was, you know, engineering that dominant offense. And then he went to Indy and for a couple of years like the Colts were cooking 2018 Colts, 2020 Colts. And then like 2021 came and then 2022 came and Frank Reich was still doing the same stuff. And then he was in Carolina and he got fired and remarkably fast, uh, six quick time. And then he went to Stanford and then he was like kind of helping out a few other places. And it's like, all right. So as he had a new ideas, does he have anything different and he knew wrinkles that he surprises coming our way. And honestly, I don't think Dan's or that is yes. So I used to be a Frank Reich guy. But now I'm pretty profoundly anti-Frank Reich. Uh, so, you know, Gina with a mediocre O line, a shaky offensive coordinator. And okay, receiving group. I think it's a decently fun group. Gina could throw for a lot of yards and garbage time. But yeah, really all comes down to the defense. All right. So you're going over. House is going over. Rahim. This team is interesting. They're favored to win four games. They have no prime time games. I love the God. God bless the NFL. Look what they do week one, right? Right up against Salah. Titans, who everybody, a lot of people like. So this could be this might be the overreaction week one game, you know, of this season. I'm thinking just at Salah's Titans. Yeah. I'm going over five and I'm going five and a half wins and I'm going over adjusted six and a half wins at plus two. 10. Like you guys have spoken about the turnovers. But I don't know how you I don't know if this can be overstated. Like NFL teams that win the turnover margin win 70% of the games. They literally never won the turnover margin. Like they had like I had as many interceptions as they did. Like literally. So they have four turnovers over year. No interceptions. And I think that's a big part. I mean, you're a cowboy's fan. So you remember in 2023, we were third and turnover differential. 2024. We couldn't we didn't win the turnover differential and it completely changed our record. We went from 12 wins to God knows how many we just didn't make the playoffs that year. So that changes everything. You look at the jacks. They went from nine turnovers to 27 and then last year they're a playoff team and they have a chance to beat the Buffalo Bills in the post season. So turnovers are really everything. I mean, like literally, I mean, I don't know how many like I don't I just think turnovers matter so much that it just can't be overstated. And then I think they added some pieces to this to this team. I mean, when you look at who they added, they added a Minka fist project. You could say he's wash Larry home status, whatever. He's a ball. He's going to get you some turnovers. I think with Geno Smith, he didn't really play well last year with the Raiders, but the Raiders probably had one of our first offensive lines we've ever seen. I think the offensive line should be better with the jets. So I like this team to go over. I think they won. They were three and 14 last year. You get some turnovers. You win six, seven games. So I'm taking the jets. That's pretty impressive. Yeah. Net turnover EPA the last 16 years of football. That's 500 football teams. Yeah. They were 496th. Jesus. Wow. Yeah. That is something else. And just from a viewing perspective, it's like when you go against and there's so many shitty quarterbacks, right? When the injury start piling up. But you know, like when Flacco's playing like flawless ball, and you're like, all right, well, he's going to give one up in the fourth quarter. You know, he is. The jets didn't have that luxury at all against any of the quarterbacks. It's crazy. You know, they have the fourth easiest schedule per win totals. But then here's another caveat. I know a lot of you guys like Buffalo, they played Buffalo last game in a year. But if Buffalo doesn't need that game, you know, you're saying they're going to be fighting for their lives. Three. You got them at eight and eight going into the week 17. No, but I'm just saying. I mean, it's very possible that, you know, Buffalo doesn't need that game and they get the chance to play Miami twice. So I just, I think they're in a good position to go over this one total. It's ugly. Sometimes the easiest best to win or the hardest best to place. But I think this is one of those Kyle Allen throwing for three touchdowns and no picks and weak 18 against the Jets will be the day. I was going to go the other way. That'll be the shavers breakout game. K club Nick over two and a half games started. I'll take the under. I'll take that. Is he officially the backup? Not right. There's fighting out. There's barely zap. Yeah, that's the one. Happy in club. Not a garbage in the mix. What a doer. What a doer. Yeah. There you go. All right, that's the Jets. I noticed we're not spending as much time on some of these other teams. I expect that'll continue with the dolphins who fandal has at three and a half the over as minus one 40. The under is plus 120. Raheem helped me with this because they're 35 to one that win the division. That's fine. 150 to one to win the AFC, but a thousand to one to win the Super Bowl. What, usually that just doubles that conference number to the Super Bowl number, but this is like, all right, they might win the AFC, but no way they're beating the NFCT Super Bowl. I'm seeing three. I'm seeing like 300. Did it move? I see it like something crazy. That's like CLV and me. Yeah. No, like 30,000 to one. Oh, I'm seeing a thousand one on on fandall Super Bowl. You're part of owner of fandall if they win the Super Bowl. Yeah, that's it. Oh, man. Jeff Haffley takes over for the curious Mike McDaniel. Malik Willis is going to take snaps. They signed him three years, 67. Yeah, I think your line is wrong because I'm seeing like what is this? What's my line? My line is for the company we work for. What is it? Yeah, I'm a vandal right now. I see for the Jets to win the Super Bowl. I see 30,000. No, not the Jets. I'm saying the dolphins are the dolphins. Oh, the dolphins. Oh, shit. Okay. We're moving on. Yeah, the yeah, yeah, I'm saying for 150 to one for the conference and then a thousand for the Super Bowl. Doesn't make doesn't matter neither's happening. Yeah, that's not even a thousand to one. That's like a hundred. It's like you said he zeros that is. Yeah, yeah, it's six zeros. All right. They never had six zeros on an NFL team before. Well, that might be it might be because of I'm just looking at this here. I mean, he was a defensive coordinator for two years halfway. They bring him in. McDaniel's out. Bobby Slowick is in as the offensive coordinator. This is rebuild. If there is ever rebuild, yeah, this is it. They had 13 draft picks, but house, which way you go and you have to pick something with this three and a half. Yeah, Malik Willis. I think this is a one or two win team. The only interesting bets that are out there are between them and the Arizona Cardinals for worst team in the NFL and I have to tell you after the Cardinals, the way they showed out last night in the hall of fame game early August. There were clips circulating all week long with the Cardinals looking like, I don't know what what's the functional. What's the football equivalent of the bad news bears. There was all kinds of of shenanigans. It looked like the Benny Hill show. You guys, you guys won't understand that, but yeah, shenanigans galore in training camp for the Cardinals. But this Miami team, I can't think of a worse situation for Malik Willis to step into. He is a quarterback that wants to run first and throw second and this Miami team is going to be behind in every single game that they play. And so he's not going to be able to do that. And in addition to that, Bobby Slowick, it could job by him getting another job in the NFL. If you want to call the Miami situation truly an NFL situation, it is a job. It is one of the 32. It does pay. It does pay. He covered himself not in glory. What's the opposite of glory? Poop. He was really bad, really bad in Houston. He was, I think as we get further and further away from his regime in Houston, dramatically impactful on the growth of CJ Stroud. This Miami team has punted on the season and I can't get there to, I can't get the three wins. So it's an under for me. The tough thing with three and a half is if you go under this really not a lot of room. You can call from sneeze and get all that number. And what if I told you that this Miami dolphins team starts to announce? Because you can count the preseason games or the no, no, no, no, no, like literally look at the schedule. They played a raiders who, I mean, Kurt Cousins, he can't move. And then you play a 49ers team where everybody is in the hospital. Like, is it out of the question that this team, you know, they they have a brand new head coach, brand new offensive coordinator, brand new defensive player. They got a bunch of young hungry players. Is it not out of the realm of possibility that this team starts 2 and 0? I mean, last year we probably had the most improbable winner of the season with the raiders beaten the Patriots who were 14 and three. No doubt. So it's like I look at this number at 4 and a half, you cough and sneeze, you get a couple turnovers and you go over this number. And then I mean, you play Buffalo and New England at the end of the season. Who's it say they need those games? So I just, I can't get in anywhere near this. I just don't know what to do with this because I just I think there's so many question marks. You look at this team. They should be one of the worst teams in football. But they're a young hungry team with a new head coach. I think there's a lot there. So where we just don't know. And I just to me, it's price properly. Well, I know you're, you know, you're going to argue big with me here. But three and a half is for Fandall has it, you know, right in there with the num. So that's the number I was looking at here. But the other thing I'm looking at the bundle, when we say poor Malik Willis, he signed for $67 million. But poor Malik Willis, Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, they got for nothing and Caleb Douglas who's now out that I mean, these are his receiver. These are his targets. Where are the points going to come from? What's going to come from the run game? I'm actually in I'm actually really intrigued by Miami this year relatively speaking, of course. So they are the youngest team in the NFL by a pretty significant margin, almost three tenths of a year younger than the second youngest team, which is KC, which by the way, I'm really excited to talk about their defense when we get around to the AFC West in a couple weeks. But I think that gives you a lot of possibility for this team to grow into like the really feisty team that were really excited to bet as like a plus seven and a half home dog in week six. And we're like, well, you know, they got these three defensive dudes who none of us had definitely heard of before the season, but they're actually kind of playing really well. And their online is good. Like, you know, the online rankings have them as an above average group. HN is good. Willis is a good runner. They can try to shorten these games. They can surprise some teams. There will be a team cough cough buffalo, maybe with a bad run defense who all the sudden you look up in Miami's up 21 13 in the third quarter and they run for 250 yards combined. I think this team has a plan. Now, are they going to be able to stop competent passing teams? Probably not. They're going to fall behind probably, but I think they can surprise a few teams. And I think they're going to be different than a lot of your traditional bad teams who are just kind of going through the motions in the sense that they have a plan. Slowick. Look, the Houston offense never developed. But it's not like Nick Kayley came in last year and let the world on fire with the same personnel. They got worse running the ball last year. So I think I think chance to talk about that Houston situation. Yeah. I think they're aligned sucked. And I think it's still still might suck. But the dolphins have a legit align. So, you know, there's no downfield threat. I think they win four or five games. I'm going over. All right. You're going over. I mean, it's feisty five and 12 where like three different times they're close. But like Willis can't quite engineer the two-minute drive and they lose by it, you know, four or five or six. The favorite in one game home against the Jets. They have the second tough schedule. The rest advantage if you if you're into that, they're like bottom three. So, I know, it's tough. I mean, it's tough. When you look at the schedule and everyone's better than you, what are you supposed to do? Like, oh, they're going to lose that surprise. The surprises come south. They're going to be the the Ronnie. What was his name? The the Wildcat guy they had the one year when they surprised the pictures with the Wildcat. Oh, was it Ronnie Harman? No, it was, uh, no, I know we're talking about it was it was an A in there, right? Ronnie Brown. Ronnie Brown. Thank you, Billy. Yeah, Ronnie Brown. When they came out today and the Wildcat all over New England, they're going to be like a little Wildcatty. Little Malik Willis, you know, running all over teams. He's one of those efficient running quarterbacks. Meana fell last year. Yeah. Um, all right. I, you know, nothing at Ed Roger, tight end cornerback safety. It's tough. This is a tough, you have to shit on one team, right? Like there's going to be one team that's, oh, Peyton. It's archmaning, you know, one of the worst secondaries I've ever seen. Assembly. All right. So let's do division winners. You could probably tell by the tone who everyone's going to go with, but Rahim start us off, Buffalo minus one 30, New England plus one 30. Just wanting to want to ball in like I play for New Wigland. Okay. I know what Rick Ross said. So I'm going Patriots plus one 30. I also want to get a little bit frisky and take the past more wins than the bills plus one 40. I'm going with the New England Patriots. I think the best team in this division might they might start off a little slow. It's very possible. They start off one in three one in two. If I like what I see, I might do what I did last year with the Chicago Bears and add more. So all right. I'm telling you on the dance. If they start off slow, I might be adding more. Joe House, you're up. Well, I picked Buffalo to win more games than New England. So I feel like I have to play Buffalo to win the division. I do. There is a nice hedge that's out there that we'll talk about in a moment. But again, I think the margin between those teams is very thin. And I'm fascinated to see especially New England in this different environment. One one thing that we didn't mention when we talked about New England, are we all sure that there isn't any more news out there? No more breaking stories as it relates to the head coach. Are we all 100% confident that every single element of weird behavior out of the head coach is in our rearview mirror. Oh, of course. This might actually be a good thing. Really? Well, not to be get suspended. Josh, my Daniels, Josh, my Daniels interim is not very good for my bets. I'll tell you that. Well, I mean, it's hard to get in the psyche of players. But if there is no more new news house, how does this affect the locker room talk? I don't think it matters one bit to the players. It's whether or not he's the head coach of the team. If he misses any games, then that compromises the New England situation a little bit. Have we ever seen a head coach get suspended? Like, this is like, I'm not sure if I've ever seen precedent for this. Well, there's a lot of pictures of stories that come out at this late. John's page suspended. Didn't you? Yeah, yeah, yeah, for um, spounies. Yeah, but then he's not getting suspended. So what's the gate for this one? I haven't tea gate. Yeah, like, you know, the people put gate at the end of everything, spy gate. Oh, I see. I can't. What's the name of that hotel? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Whatever it is. People gate, whatever. Right. Blue teek land. Blue teeky gate. Yeah. All right. So that's a, we got Raheem with New England. We have house with Buffalo, the Bundo. New England. You can already see the headlines though. If the Patriots do start one in three, you know, early season schedule is not too easy. It's all variables off the field issues, divide locker room in Patriots, Super Bowl hangover, Vabel hangover after, you know, fun weekend with. I don't think you need to get to one in three. If they lose by double digits to Seattle week one, you're going to hear all the Boston talk. It's going to get there. But you still like it. I still do. Yeah. I don't know. I don't have a real gap here. I do find it very funny, by the way, like, Fandall odds. So it's, it's Buffalo minus 130 and going on plus 130. And they're like, you know, the other teams F off, which is kind of how this feels. What would it take for the Jets, the dolphins to win the division? Injury to Josh. Injury to Drake, May, Josh Allen. Who else would have to get hurt? That's about it. Yeah. Vabel suspended the baby. The backup quarterback for New England is, do you guys know? I looked up the backup quarterback for every team because that does have to factor. It does matter. It's Kyle Allen for, yeah. I was definitely, Mitch Trubisky go. Tommy DeVito is going to be right. Right. Right. All that would be funny. Oh, it's going to be stuck with Tommy DeVito. Yeah. That's how much money. That would be funny. That would definitely be definitely. Do we think he's still living in his mother's house in New Jersey and commuting up to Foxboro for, for the games or practice? They've already scouted the chicken finger situation. The doors from a money might have, might have dried out a little bit. Jardoud. Damn. Yeah, I'm going to, I have, I have, I have, I've been doing one basically with Buffalo. So smidge. Better the market says Buffalo is. I disagree. They'll split. It'll come down to Buffalo. Buffalo will lose a Bozo game to one of Miami or the Jets. And the Patriots will not lose a Bozo game. And that'll be the difference in the division. That's my prediction. Last year I said the Drake May would win a Super Bowl before Josh Allen. Standing on that. And at this point, I think the bill's window is close. Oh, I won't go that far. Wow. Tell it to your model says 11.007 wins. All right. I mean, Buffalo will probably be in the division playoffs again. And all these guys are what 2930 Lamar. You know, my home. Allen Allen is 30. He's 30. But I mean, if you look at it's so funny because if you look at the bills and the Ravens. And if you look at the like the best five year span for DBOA, both of them are like in the top five. So it's kind of a miracle that neither have broken through. And at some point, it's like, oh, yo, if you haven't gotten it done then, when are you going to get it done? And I think we're spoiled because of Tom Brady. It's like, no, no, no, these guys all have to 40 years old. No, no, Rahim is more right than anybody with this. Like this is kind of where this is shit or get off the pot. Right? 3031, 32. You got to kind of get it going. And the year the year's is penciling in Baltimore Buffalo and KC as division winners. I think our over that's for sure. I don't think the win that's talented in the Mar Jackson are running quarterbacks. So I think their agent curve is a little bit worse than the traditional pocket passer. For sure. All right. All right. You know what, Rahim will start with you since you have a lot to talk about running quarterbacks here. What's your player prop for this? Yeah, I'm going to go with Malone. week willis over 550 rushing yards for the season. I mean, you look at this guy like, I mean, he only played like four games last year, only started one, but he had two games were over 60, 60 percent of the snappy plate. He ran to ball nine times for 44 yards and both. So I see a guy who is a running quarterback first. I've passed in quarterback second. And if you, you, you pushed that over 16 games, I mean, I think it's pretty clear that he could be a thousand yard rusher. Um, Fandall doesn't have this up. Fandall, if you watching this, please put up Malik Willis, um, 800 flush yards, 700 flush yards. Nine hundred, let me play escalator up to a thousand. I would love that. I mean, he might not be designed runs either, right? He could be running for his life and scamper for 30. This, you might see that like four or five times this season. Be a little bit more ridiculous over five 50. Point five. That's Raheem's player prop. Uh, how's you ever rushing a quarterback proctor? Yeah, it's a theme. Um, Josh Allen over 10 and a half regular season rushing touchdowns. Fandall, um, there's a tiny bit of a favor here. Now you have to lay the juice. It's minus 128. But the number out in market open at 11 and a half. I like this 10 and a half. Um, Josh Allen has rushed for over that number of touchdowns each of the past three seasons. He's averaging 13 touchdowns a season. But this is really the, the, the benefit of Joe Brady as the head coach and, you know, what they've done at the, uh, offensive corner. They're all in the same page when they get inside the red zone. Josh Allen is a threat to, um, score for them. He gets the ball. He's not afraid. They use that as, as a weapon. The only thing. And, you know, if you're looking for downside case, um, scenarios against this whole buffalo thing, they're, um, uh, offensive line coordinator coach retired, Aaron Kromer. And he was given a ton of credit both for picking the talent, getting that offensive line to the top five offensive line. Once again, this upcoming season. Um, what will that loss mean? He also got some credit for engineering the rush attack that the bills used to great success last year. Does that have a negative impact on the Buffalo's fortunes, but also this bet for Josh Allen over 10 and a half regular season. Rushy touchdowns. I don't think so. I like it. There you go. Um, yeah, they got, uh, they got a tackle from Boston College in the draft, but otherwise it's similar offensive line. All right. Uh, the bundle. I like this. Then if you like the Patriots to, uh, to thrive, this is sort of where you should be going. AJ Brown 10 plus touchdowns plus 260. He has played in one of the most run heavy offenses in the entire NFL and offense whose entire inside the five strategy revolved around pushing the push of Jalen Hertz. And now he is freed to go play in an offense with a, a quarterback who will be much more unleashed offensively. A quarterback who will use the middle of the field more. And that's not to say that Jalen Hertz is a bomb. Jalen Hertz was a great deep ball. Jalen Hertz and AJ were very symbiotic when they were on those back shoulder throws for certain, but they just didn't really run, they didn't really throw the ball out in the red zone. And New England, look, maybe their run game gets a lot better, but one of their biggest problems last year was that they had red zone problems, especially inside the five inside the 10 and, you know, one easy solution if you still can't run them all is to throw it to the big fella who who turns 50, 50s into 70, 30s. So I think Brown, they're going to want to keep him happy. You know, they're going to want to keep him engaged. It's important to do that. And they're certainly going to try. So I'll go, AJ Brown, 10 plus tuts at plus 260. I mean, we're here. If you talk about escalator bets, this could be a good one. If, you know, if it maybe ends up with 41 touchdown passes, why wouldn't 13 go to AJ Brown? Oh, yeah, most definitely. I mean, 10 plus. And he, I mean, he's, he's such a big body to wear us like, are you know, he's, he's a great red zone threat. And the Eagles just didn't use him in that manner. So I do have this one. Yeah, he had 11 with Stikin the first year. That was pre push push, right? They weren't using the push push then. And then in 2023, four and five, he had seven each, despite like pretty similar numbers across the board in terms of a receptions and per catchage. It just wasn't a red zone target anymore. But when he was in Tennessee, you know, he had 9, 11, 5, 11. All right. So what about miscellaneous bets? Do you have house? You have one. It's interesting. I love the first through fourth thing. So Fandall offers that. And it seems like this is a division where we would be able to nail it, whether it's two superior teams and two junk teams that you have to figure out. And yet I stared at it for 20 minutes and I still couldn't figure it out. But I think you're going against yourself a little bit here. Well, it's, it's the best price available for the Patriots jumping over the bills. And that's not a crazy kind of proposition, right? I mean, the Patriots did win 14 games last year. And the bills only won 12 and the win totals are very close to one another. So I'm playing this. The conviction, the way for this to make sense is that you have to have conviction that the jets are going to finish third and Miami is going to finish fourth. Because then that opens this thing up. I had that that element. I feel very strongly about the eight new starters on defense for the jets are guys that have played in this league and logged good minutes and have, you know, a track record of success 80 Mitchell as an addition to that jets offense. I like the jets in the three position Miami in the four position. And so swapping the Patriots to come out ahead of the bills in the division that pays at nearly three to one plus 291. You can't get that kind of price around the idea of the Patriots winning this division. Otherwise, or over their win total, you have to go crazy with an all total for the Patriots to get all the way up to plus 291. That exact order to me because I believe that the jets will finish third and the dolphins will finish fourth. That feels like a good one. As you talk me through this, I think I'm going to do something really stupid because rather than the jets are going to come in third. And it does it's not up there right now on Fandall, but I think I'm just going to bet 60 70 80 thousand dollars on the jets to come in third place. Even money. Is it even? Is it up there? Even money. Yeah. You bet that much wanted to just to finish there and they will mess around on winning division. What a fun fact that'll be. Josh Allen. Thanks. I'm the head. Oh my god. Come on. I get more than seven wins. What would have to happen? Well, I'll tell you what could happen. So I have two bets that I like for the first record this year. The two New York teams will talk giants in a few weeks, but plus 900 worse record than a fell. New York jets. If you think Aaron, if you think Aaron Glenn is truly awful. If you think Frank Reich is truly awful and you think Geno Smith is washed, which are all reasonable claims based on what we watched last season. And for Frank Reich, the last couple of stops he's had. Then like, you know, Miami has a new coach and a new quarterback and like it could be intriguing offensively. Arizona is the probably the biggest hurdle there. Certainly the biggest hurdle there. But at 9-1, jets, worst record is not out of the question in my opinion. This team could be they could be Raiders level like last year's Raiders. I get it wrong every year of that bet. I get I want to look like a champ there. And I just I think I think about it. The last year was like, oh, Pete Carroll, he'll bring some respect to this organization. Turns out he was just washed and the team sucked. And he brought it in some bad assistance. Remember like, you know, Chip Kelly offensive coordinator. Frank Reich, Chip Kelly, not that different. Yeah. This point in their careers. Just I think we nailed it with the analysis. Like it's just impossible for a team to have zero turnovers again. Yeah. They're going to accidentally scratch a couple more way. I have a who knows whoever knows anybody else for a division play. I know Raheem. You talked about it earlier with Joe Brady. Yeah. So I mean, this is a long shot lottery ticket. Now we know that this doesn't necessarily fit the profile. The profile coach of the year is that typically it comes from a team with the preseason one total of seven and a half wins. Well, I mean Buffalo's at 10 and a half. But the way I look at it is that if you look at this Buffalo bill schedule, which we discussed earlier, if they can overcome that and they look good, this is a good long shot lottery ticket. So let's go with Joe Brady coach the year plus 15 to one. You know, you don't want to dart. But I think if they can just overcome it, you got a real shot. So even if you don't win, let's say that you know, they start off, you know, five and one, six and two get a little cash out value and you trade out your position. Yeah. I like that. You're an interesting year for coach of the year. Yeah, let's look at it now. We'll do awards later in a few weeks. But let's look at this. Yeah. What are you going to say? Harbaugh is the favorite at six to one. Yeah. Harbaugh. Which Harbaugh? John Harbaugh. Minter is the second favorite. I guess because Baltimore probably wins a lot of games and they didn't win a lot of games last year. So he gets the boost off of that. Right. And then Brady, it's very rare that, you know, like the favorites win this award though. Yeah. This is basically come back. Well, it's funny to answer House's question. You know, who's last on that list? Mike Raible, AD to one. Maybe they do know something. Maybe I know the team that won 14 games isn't like we did have a coach that went to coach. You can see that. Yeah. But maybe he lost his most important voter. That's what the markets are. Yeah. (laughing) - And inherently though, being the favorite for Coach of the Year makes you less likely to win the award. 'Cause you gotta come out of nowhere in some way, shape or form. - Yeah, the award is always, and he's towards the bottom too. Bella check only one that's like twice in 12 years or something. - Right, 'cause you know. - It's like, all right. We kind of expected that to be good. So I don't know with, with, with, with Harbaugh is the favorite. - I don't like the Giants either, so. - Oh, great. - We're gonna have a great time together. The three of us. - I love this. - I'll sit on the sidelines. - I love this. I can't wait. All right. - So, like, if you did like the Patriots, would you even pick them? Or was it like, you get to do it? - No, I would. I'm torn because Raheem and I said the same thing. Like, I, and you can go crazy about the schedule. By the way, they're only like the 12th hardest schedule. Right now, it's not like, you know. - When you have the judgment, - That's the best piece of each. - Twice each. - Yeah. - Right, I know, I know. Not too many losses, give me losses there. All right, let's do plays of the day. - We're switching gears. - Before we get to the plays of the day. - All the plays of the day. - We got an audible. Because last night was the craziest Red Sox game ever. - Oh. - Yeah. - What do we do about the Red Sox? - Like, it lines up. It lines up with plays of the day. It's perfect dream. I mean, they're 11 to 1 to 1 when the world series. - Yes. - What do we, I mean, they're, what, plus 300 to 1 to division. - Yes. - What are they to 1 to, the A.L. - No. - I don't know. - See, what we do about it. - He didn't listen to us on Wednesday. We gave the very best bet. - Oh, you did on Red Sox. The very best possible bet is for the Red Sox to finish fourth in the. - Seating. - Fourth seeding. - Yes. Is it still at plus 230 or is it down to? - It's down to plus 180. - Still, you know, Simmons called me on Wednesday night and said, I got this bet. Red Sox plus 230 to be the fourth seed. (laughing) Did you listen to the show? He goes, yeah. I said, really? We talked about that on the show today. He's like, what the house was texting me? I was like, what are you? I was like, we talked about it on the show. - I told them that we talked about it on the show. - Oh wow. - What do you think of Jets coming third place? (laughing) - So, I mean, outside of the fourth seed, there's, I mean, there's nothing that you guys were putting in the Winter World Series or the, oh no, I definitely would. I think that's a great price for them in the World Series. They definitely can win the World Series. - Like, the numbers are staggering. I mean, like, they overcame five deficits to walk off the Weissox in 13 innings. They swapped the series when eight in a row. And since June 25th, there's 31 and five. - Yeah. - We did the show what, like, two weeks ago, when we were like minus 160, we should probably still bet it to make the playoffs. - Right. - They're now minus 4500 to make the playoffs. - Oh my God. - I'll still do that. - Yeah. (laughing) - You know, like, the good guys. - I think they were even. - They were even the one that had the most wins in July. - Wow. - I'm South of Gilagosander. He actually hit that guy. - Yeah, he does good work on that. - Yeah. - He really did. - And there's no game that they're out of ever. - Right? - It's like you can't. - All pens are really good. And crochet is coming back, maybe. Probably. - I don't think the division, how many games? - There's five behind Tampa Bay. - Probably not catching them. - All right. - Tampa Bay, how many games are left? - 30 and 60. - That's it. - All right, so they would really have to go like 15 and 25, whatever, or more than that. Yeah. All right, three to one. All right, well, I'm putting them on a parley. What do you think of that? With the Cardinals, Red Sox, since he all stopped breaking, where he mentioned, but since he all stopped breaking 17 and three, they've won eight in a row. And Jack Perkins is pitching for the A's, his almost a 70 R.A., almost eight in July. The A's have lost eight straight, Jack Perkins starts. I'm parling the Red Sox, with the Cardinals who played Colorado with the worst record in the national league. They've allowed the most runs in the major. The worst run differential, minus 108. Cardinals start to allow Leahy's gone seven straight, allowing two or fewer earn runs. 43 innings, five earn run. So that's Cardinals, Red Sox, parlay, plus 130. Look at you, Joe House. You got something similar going. - Yeah, I went ahead and now it's kind of an auto bet. Anytime, I'm looking to fade the athletics for the balance of the season. I was fortunate enough to get under 67 and a half wins a couple of weeks ago. And I love the trend that we're seeing here out of the athletics. So this is Boston coming off of that epic situation against the White Sox, but I'll go ahead and lay the one and a half at minus 118. That's one best bet. And then I'm gonna parlay, 'cause in style just made the case for St. Louis over Colorado. I'm gonna parlay that with the Cleveland Guardians going up against the White Sox, who had to fly home after that epic loss last night. You know, fade of the White Sox coming into a situation where they were up till all hours of the night, no sleep whatsoever and guardians need to write this ship a little bit. So that's a small parlay for me. - There you go. - Is that plus 181? - That pay is somewhere. - Beautiful. - What is Boston, my line tonight? - The 260, I think I see. - The 260? The ball pins in rough shape. I might buy a team total. The A's are the worst team in the week now. - Funny, but close. - The A's are A's are worst. - Without curts, without curts, they're done. - Minus 18. - They've been done, but they're really done. - One and a half runs. - Yeah, I actually wanted to play Cleveland. I wanted to give you guys a different game 'cause I saw House was on it. I'm gonna go with the Texans Rangers. Fade in the bottom Oreos. I think these are two teams going in two different directions. So take a ballty minus 142. - There you go. DeBundo, no shock here. Filly's team, Filly's total. - Yeah, well, last night minus 300 was never in doubt. And I like under eight, Filly's Blue Jays. I actually like this match up for Soriano against the Filly's. The Filly's do hit a good number of balls on the ground above average rate. They don't get on base very often. And Soriano's pretty good at limiting the long ball, which is what Filly relies on heavily offensively. And then the only Filly's bullpen is in a bit of a underwater situation following the last couple of days. So the last nine outs could be top for Filly tonight, but I think this total should be pretty flat. Seven and a half. We get under eight minus 115. So I'm taking it. - All right, there you go. - I will be there tonight too. I'm gonna go catch another foul ball. - I was gonna say, what are, what kind of odds would you put on? The Bundo catch another foul ball. - Sit in the same seat I did two nights ago. So, it is a little bit of a high-five. - How high is the infilladolfia today? - Let's see what the actual. It is 91 degrees. - Like what's the humidity looking like? - 61%. - All right. - Is that fact that the odds of making that should be right? - I mean, I think you have to. I mean, that's when the ball flies more, but I can't do the math right now. - Right. - I played it in my mens league last night. It was so humid that when I went to throw the ball in from the outfield, it just slipped out of my hand. I went way offline. I was like, Jesus, it's brutal out here. - Blame in the humidity. - Yeah. - There you go. By the way, the Mets have a Savannah banana on their team now. It's great. - Strikes out. - Oh yeah. - It does a split. It's terrific. He's gonna get murdered probably in the next two weeks. So enjoy it while you can. It's freaking nice. Let's do it. - So, what are your thoughts on Chase Outlay? - They trade half the team. I hate his guts. What do you mean? - All right. Well, tonight's foot off your wall of fame induction out of Chase Outlay down at the next time. Yeah, you should make a trip down. - Well, don't do too much. - Don't do the part of the calculations. Yeah, what are you gonna do? - All right, that was good. I think that was fun. We got the AFC East. What are they? Like seven more divisions. We have what is this? Monday, big announcement. We're on Twitch, guys. We shot a promo for it. And everything. We'll be here on YouTube also. The ringer, Spotify, all of it. But we're on Twitch. Raheem, what are your thoughts about this going to Twitch? - I'm excited, but like I want to bring something else up. I mean, it's out of the pocket. But Jalen Browne, he did his introductory press conference in the middle of the hood in Southwest Philly. Like he didn't have it at the Sixers Training Facility. He didn't have it at the Wells Fargo Center, whatever you call it, now the Comcast Center. He had it in the middle of the hood. It Myers Recreational Center. That's gonna go really well with the Philly fans. I know I've been talking to his Philadelphia under stuff, but I think more of them-- - Do you think they tried to talk him out of that? I mean, that was a conscious effort, right? To do it there, right? - No, I think he demanded it there because I think he just wanted to be a part of the community. - Yeah. - Do you hear these talks about LeBron James and living in New York? Do you see stuff like that? I don't know, man. I think Philly might do it. - I don't know. He's just a gut feeling. - He's in. I might be in. - For him, Palmer, welcome to the resistance. - Wow, Phil, the resistance team. - The bundles catching foul balls, press conferences in the middle of the hood, lots of them going on, Phil. - I love the dream. Snuck that in under Cuz's nose. Cuz's so done. He does not want, he tried to put a prohibition against the NBA until October. - Look, it's a dream got won. - Haines King ran a touchdown, a walkoff touchdown in the meaningless game and in the race, three weeks of LeBron talk, which nobody knew what the hell was talking about. They were talking about it anyway. So that's fine. - That's all right. We're good. We're back and forth. - We hit everything. We hit NFL, we hit baseball. - That's true. - I had it throw some NBA in there. - No, you got it. - I don't even have no boxing right now. - The Aces covered last night, miracle cover against the fever. What are we gonna do with Twitch? Will the people gonna yell at us and we get to respond? Or it could be a little rough. - I'm the official, unofficial chat manager, apparently. So I'm gonna be a manager. - Oh, you are a chat. - Oh, yeah. - Oh, you're a chat. - I need a Twitch chair. Don't you have to have a cool chair if you're on Twitch? Isn't that what they do? - I think so. So yeah, yeah, we're on Twitch are we going to livestream us watching the game at some point because I feel like that's the The national Yeah, let's do it quarter of a big game or something. Yeah, I would do it There's probably an end Monday NFL NFL game at 8 in the morning at some point that by accident We'll be doing it the same time as our show where they spread it out But that's this week all right So Monday we come with the aFC North Tate and I are gonna have some college previews for you over the next couple weeks otherwise its divisions Divisions divisions and that's gonna do it for another episode of the ringer gambling show For Joe house the last episode Raheem Palmer. Yeah, I guess so we're rebranded too We're the ringer wise guys. We're going back. We're like HBO Max. We jump back and forth HBO Max Rehem I'm sourcing so long and happy handy capping you must be 21 or older in president select states for Kansas in Affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 or older in president in DC Kentucky or Wyoming if you have a gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or 1-800 my reset call 1-888-7897777 or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut or visit md gambling help dot org in Maryland Hope is here visit gambling help line ma dot org or call 800 327 5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877 8 hope slash n-Y or text hope New York in New York for Louisiana call 1-877 770-7867.