Follow The Money | July 27, 2026 | Hour 2

>> I always follow the money. >> Yeah, yeah. >> This is Follow the money with Mitch Moss and Pauli Howard on V-Syn. >> Good to have you on board. Thanks for watching the program. As always on YouTube TV, listening on Series XM channel 158, I heart radio, tune in radio, or any of our great affiliates, Mitch Moss along with Dustin Sweenelson, we're live, downtown Vegas from the circuit, resort, casino, busy hour coming up by the way, as they typically are, we'll get into something, I'm going to say something for the first time in 30 years in 15 minutes. And I firmly believe it's true. >> We all support you, Mitch. >> Okay. You ready for this? That's it, but you got to hold on. You got to hold on. Justin, Jensen, Lewis bottom of the hour, his best pet today from Major League Baseball, and you're the same way in college football. You're going to, like, Jensen, Matt, Uman's nickname him the machine gun. >> Yeah. >> And you're right there like as the UZ. >> Yeah, yeah, just mine sometimes run out of steam. >> That bullets here. >> Here's like the Gatlin gun at the end of that predator scene where it's like no more and they keep, Matt keeps, it's like the movie War Dogs. I bought the shady Chinese Albanian bullets. >> Yeah. >> But don't quite work. So you have a plenty to go over in college football at that time. Right now we'll go over our bets that we like for NFL awards this upcoming season. >> It's time to start talking yourself in an out of things. I think that's the biggest thing this time of year. This is where you can really get a really good number and sweat it out for the next season. Like a year ago at this time, Rams reported for camp. I already liked Matthew Stafford MVP. You know what happened? He went into that tent with the back injury that was like the van or whatever form that he was laying in. I was like, you know what, I'm not buying this. I'm not buying this at all. I'll take 55 to one. Thank you very much. And that helped pay for the entire football season. >> 55 to one on Matthew Stafford last year. >> Because he was not damn dude. >> When there's blood in the streets, man. That's when you buy these monster numbers. Well, we learn with CalShi with the LeBron James stuff a week ago when you were out. They don't know how to mark some of these things on their books at times. And I think they're just so quick to react to, well, there's a report as back as injured. They don't know how legit it was. I had an NFL player on last year at that time, Kirk Morris. And he said, you know what this sounds like to me? Matthew Stafford's 38, 39 years old. He doesn't want to do training camp anymore. That's what it sounds like. >> Yeah, well, good spot on by him. So here's what we're going to do. We're going to go over a lot of these markets for NFL awards this year. We'll go over with either a best bet or the person who we think is going to win the award along with a long shot. The honors are all yours right now to begin here in the MVP. >> Yeah, MVP, I wrote this up in the Veece in NFL betting guy. Brock Pertie was my original case that I made. That is my number one bet there. >> By the way, you made a great breakdown. >> It's a great case. >> And Mike Evans is a big part of it. I think Mike Evans is, if you look at the history of where he goes, those quarterbacks always succeed immediately. Many man's L.A. and M. He's in the NFL for a while, eventually Tom Brady down to Tampa Bay. He extends his career. And then the last few years of Baker Mayfield. But if I'm going to go off of my Brock Pertie bet, the other guy I really, and this is a dangerous game, we've all been burnt by them at some point in our past, I might be all in on the Cincinnati Bangles and more specifically, Joe Barrow here. Do you realize that this is the only team in that division with continuity with a head coach returning and the schedule, Mitch? The past defense is the bangles are about to face this season. They face one top five past defense from a year ago. They face three from the top 10 last year. One of those was Cleveland with Miles Garrett. I haven't feeling the past defense is going to be a little bit different. They face the 31st 30th, 29th, 28th and 27th. They also have to get off to a head start because they will fire Zack Taylor. Joe Barrow has become with Brock Pertie, my favorite MVP case to make. Okay, so he's the guy that I bet I have a half a unit on him at plus nine. I really want a 10 to one. Yeah, a minimum. I want to double digits on him. But as I realize this coming back from vacation, I'm like, okay, the 10 to ones are gone. I'm like, I can't believe it. Now what do I do? Do I abort? No, I found a. No, absolutely. We do not abort. We don't have a term. Not a boy. I'm going to go to the UFC event and I'll take two guys or a minus four dollars or greater. I'll add it to the ticket. That's what I'm going to be like with the Rams this year. That's the only way to six to one on the Super Bowl. I have to try to find like do some cross-bore parlay. But anyway, everything that you just said about Barrow makes, you know, the past defense is they're playing this year super easy. By the way, part of the whole thing here is that I saw a roto wire. They had ten bold predictions and I'll get into some of these and other bets that I have as well on the season. One of which was Jamar Chase sets every single wide receiver record including the triple crown yet again this year. So guess what? That's going to be Joe Burrow throwing him the football unless he gets hurt again. No, like let's also remember, they still have T Higgins for some inexplicable reason when they should have been adding defenders instead of locking them up. And Esovoss turned into a really good receiver when those two guys have been hurt in the past plus the tight end position. I just think that they are going to be playing with such a chip on their shoulder early because they know the windows closing. Zach Taylor has to be on the hot seat this year. So I think you get a very inspired Bengals team Burrow specifically. Yeah, so he's a short shot that I like more to this by the way. If you go back two years ago, here's the whole key is Will Burrow play 15, 16, 17 games. Don't know. He's been injured three times in his career. So the last time he played a full season was two years ago. That season he finished with the mainstream numbers. He almost had 5,000 yards passing 43 touchdowns 9 INTs. And on a non-playoff team that year, he finished fourth in the MVP voting. And I recall people saying that was the year Barkley had for the Eagles. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson battle it out near the top and people are like, don't care. Burrow is the MVP. This is people saying this with the votes. So I think they're kind of like almost dying to give him the award. It stays healthy. The numbers are going to be there. My long shot bet give it to me that I have in pocket is Tyler Schuck. He's this year's Drake May in my opinion. Second easiest schedule going into the entire year. I know it starts off brutal with a couple of very difficult opponents for the Saints. I loved how he played down the stretch. They added Tyson top 10 wide receiver in the draft. Chris Olavi is a monster proved that last year. They added 8 chin from the Jaguars. They helped the backfield. Allen Moore is a proven commodity as an offensive play caller. We'll find out more about him as a head coach in his second year. I think 100 to one on shock is a is a number. Well, I knew that was going to take him if the number was right. And I can't believe he's available to 100 to one to be honest. He's starting quarterback in a division that's completely wide open. 100% that that is a big element here. And the narrative of him putting it on his shoulders and lifting them to that point. I think that makes sense. I think there's something Kellen Morseau on his armability. And it completely unlocked his rookie here. I had him 60 to one for offensive rookie of the year. I took during the draft. I never thought that ticket was going to be live. It was just situation. Sure. But that's the same here. This bet is also situationally. He is the starting quarterback of a team that's invested at receiver. They got him another weapon to play with. And offensive minded head coach. The defense is probably taking steps back. That's a recipe for success for him to put up monster numbers. Now my long shot is in the same division. I think everyone. I look, I love and respect everyone here. And as lost their mind talking about two leading the Falcons to the NFC South. I I've lost a lot of money believing two ahead something left. I just I can't get there either. I that's why I think Baker may feel in the box. Like Todd bulls is Todd bulls. We understand that it's another offensive coordinator. Bakers 50 to one. Do we not for like remember that he was playing like an MVP to start the year last year before he got hurt and then played the rest of the season injured. Dustin, we said several times on this show. Whatever that was after weeks, six weeks. He should have been the MVP of the league at that time. He was out of his mind. And I think some people are concerned. Oh, there's a new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson to come over from the Falcons. I would say, can we make the case that Baker may feel deserves a little bit more love for how he created Liam Cohen and Dave can Alice as well? Like it's one of the ways. Yeah. But I think everyone will canal us and Liam Cohen unlocked him. Hold on. They can't both unlock him. It kind of has to be one or the other. I get 50 to one divisions open. He's going to miss Mike Evans. You and I both had a book at a win rookie of the year last year. And I always wonder had a book has started slow and finished the way he started. I think he would have won the award over the white line. So why? You would have flipped the season that he had because nobody other than Chuck making a run late. Nobody else was doing that. No, Mike Mellon was by default. But yeah, I think they have weapons. Godwin's back for a full year. I still like what they have defensively where they're going to be the more balanced team in the division. I like Baker 50 to one. So we're kind of on the same page here with Atlanta. The Saints are my team in that division. Like I have their win total over. I have them in the division. I can't argue with people who actually think the felcons are going to be better to go over their win total. I agree. Right. There's a lot to like with this team if it's panics. That's where I'm at. Like I want to we don't know about Michael Pennix at this level yet, but I want to know. So let's find out about him then, right? And why is it that two has to start ahead of him? I want to if penets can beat him out in camp. I'm going to be much higher in the felcons in two of because I'm with you. I can't get there with anything to a related guy. I had to last year 40 to one come back player of the year. I believe I am the last one off the sink and ship. I don't know how people who've all they've done is talk trash about two or three years are now jumping on that it could work. Watch the tape. Not that I actually watch tape, but watch the highlights. The guy can't throw at 25 yards in the air. I yep. What is he other than dumping it off to Bajon Robinson. I don't know how he picks up first downs legitimately. He's that lost. I don't see. I think the vision is going to be fascinating though. I think Carolina comes back. I think it's the two teams we just mentioned. Camp of Bay in New Orleans. Yeah, yeah, that's see Good line by the way you talked a lot of people who watch film. Yeah, you got that going Yeah, I watch film other people go I watch film you mean you pulled up the YouTube the all 22 Yeah, but the two of stuff it's just it's alarming that he can never throw you no chances taken down the field He shouldn't be allowed to play anymore. No, it's all thinking dunk No, he shouldn't be he's someone who's protecting from himself It's crazy. Hey if you're betting at circus sportsbook for a limited time You can fund your wagers in contest entries with crypto using buripay and no buripay transaction fees It's fast secure and another way that circuit continues to innovate for sports better's visit buripay.com B you are a pay.com to learn more take advantage of fee free crypto Waitering before August 31st exclusively at circus sportsbook at circa resort in casino buripay transaction fees Waved as part of campaign standard cryptocurrency network and exchange fees may apply by the way to I made these bets Before I noticed the tweet it was sent out today from roto wire. They're 10 bold predictions One of those predictions on Shuck was that well He's predicted the finish inside the top 12 as a fantasy quarterback their bold prediction is he finishes number one overall Oh, wow, as QB1. Wow that that is bold, but I'm here for it I want to ask you later on the show about offensive player of the year Someone's gonna have to take that market away from me. I like way too much. I like too many lock shots and offensive player of the year Is it ill we'll expand on that coming up next because you're right. I was going to the whole the numbers like over the weekend Like I like this guy. I like that guy and we're split at the top of the board you and I we are and so the guy that I actually love the most in this market I can't bet that there's a reason why okay, that I can't bet him We'll find out if you agree coming up on follow the money its visa in these sports betting network So you're listening to this podcast because you want an edge, but what if I told you you're only halfway there You've got the mindset now it's time to get the tool kit to match Here's the thing pro better spend thousands on data and tools But what they don't want you to know is you can get the same edge for a fraction of the cost with Vsyn Pro with Vsyn Pro You get access to expert picks public betting data prop projections powerful tools analytics and more tap the link in the description And see why thousands of bettors are already using Vsyn Pro to cash more bets You Thanks for checking in Mitch Moss dust and sweetle's in live downtown Vegas Thurker resort casino is your spot. We spent the previous segment Going over bets that we like to win the NFL MVP Our best bet and then a long shot will continue here with offensive player of the year I'll tell you my guy that I could not be more in love with this year But I can't bet him there's a specific reason in a minute Who is your best bet to win offensive player of the year this year? Oh, I hate it because it's top of the board I don't like I don't like doing it. I don't like tying my money up for so long But I I was a year ahead with Bajon Robinson a year ago. I had him 16 to one He got off to a great start and I'm so annoyed at myself what I've started doing Mitch with with a lot of these futures I bet two bets one is the season long bet one is half the unit if they get off to a good start and Caching out for more money and making money on it I could have paid for that and several other futures early in the year If I just would have cashed out the second Bajon what you know what I'm letting it ride I'm going all in on him And I think it ate to half the one when you look at the offense right now They're so dependent on him being that dude But it's the fan's he's got a track record of having a guy like this and using him Nick Chubb and Kreme hunt together in 2020 Chubb had a thousand sixty seven twelve touchdowns hunt at eight forty one and eleven total touchdowns also at three hundred receiving the next year Hunt was gone Chubb almost thirteen hundred on the ground eight touchdowns a year after that 1,500 yards thirteen touchdowns last few years in Cleveland. They never won game. They're always losing He got that from Nick Chubb and I like Nick Chubb He is not the dynamic threat and space that Bajon Robinson is here plus you have no Tyler Al Jir Vulturing the touchdowns you need him to be like say quantum 24 you need him to be like CMC in 2023 But Bajon Robinson had 1400 receipt rushing 820 receiving yards last year 11 touchdowns That's more rushing yards than CMC almost three times the receiving yards that Barkley had I think he's going to be such a focal point for Stephanski to hit the ground running this year especially with the short stuff I think the receiving yards are going to be similar and if he can just build on the rushing which there's a track record Chubb in the past in the system. I love Bajon Robinson 8 and 1 and I hate betting that that high up on the board So I think the two players here at the very top are kind of splitting hairs with right because I am with you like how if you ever We just watch Bajon Robinson player like this. He was born to play running back Yeah, he was so good right and this year with that schedule I'm being just sad it's lining up for him Obviously have another huge year my guy is the the short shot. I mean it's really hard not to make that case So but I can't possibly I saw Paul Charcine a long time friend of the show fantasy football Hall of Famer and an event we were watching game six of the golden nights in the Stanley Cup playoffs out here whenever that was last month When they lost that game and so we were going over like guys to look at this year and he his first guy that he brought up is Jumir Gibbs And I've been high on the lines ever since last year ended easy schedule no league. There's no more Dave Montgomery There's a ton of like about this guy Like this is gonna be his career year. That's basically what he said. He said is Jumir Gibbs in for a 2500 yard year this season all-purpose yardage right So and I'm like he probably is and he has to be number one I think off of fantasy draft boards the problem is I can't bet a guy a plus 650 to win this award I just I won't do it. But last year with David Montgomery 1223 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns he added five touchdowns along with 77 catches on 94 targets Montgomery's gone The year before that Gibbs had 16 touchdowns on the ground for he's going to be good if he stays healthy He's good for 20 touchdowns. The touchdowns should be absurd the receiving yards are always there I look I can't disagree with betting him the only reason why I chose Bajon overgives is one is the price difference Right? It's it's two dollar difference. I know it doesn't sound like much But you're talking about if they miss two games they can't win this award. Yeah, you you pull your hamstring. You're out for a month It's dead but Part of me thinks and this is the dumbest thing to do. I want to be clear about this before I say it I want to bet just Gibbs and Robinson not bet anyone else in the market and hope that you know You win Gibbs and ends up being a plus 550 you bet Robinson ends up being plus 750 because it's one of the situations for both of them are juicy this year I know I know Usually before the season starts. I will take a peek at MVP numbers for the guys at the very top of the board right for running back positions only And then you have to decide well, I think this is the year for player x where it's going to be a career year And they're going to win a ton of games to give you in the mix right the problem with this is Even though running backs never win the award you have to go back to 2012 with Adrian Peterson Books have adjusted the prices on these running backs Uh, a couple years ago. I was absolutely dead set that Jonathan Taylor was going to break out it's actually more than a couple years ago I had him at 501 to be the NFL MVP This summer rolls around the cults go to Buffalo. They steamroll them NFL media is saying Jonathan Taylor is the MVP the league he didn't win The year after that The art canary had 2000 yards and 20 touchdowns. I had him 501 had no chance of winning the award. Yeah CMC's first year with the 49ers The number was 201 he put up those crazy the full year right the full year Yeah, I think I had 150 something like that. I had 200 on him Unbe like an MVP work had no chance to win the award. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. This year my guy is Jameer Gibbs Who could actually get in the MVP mix and 120 to one is the best number I can find out Oh, they're so look at that. Yeah, they're really scared to get in beat by that which is weird because they never win So unlikely. Yeah, you could just be taking you know A million twenty dollar thirty fifty dollar bets for people if you just post a big fat number sure So I don't understand the fear there For the Lions though the thing about Gibbs that could be crazy is the start they get off to before the buy New Orleans 19th against the run last year at Buffalo week two well Buffalo was 28th Then you have the Jats who were 29th a year ago and then it's Arizona They're gonna be up by two scores in the third quarter Gibbs is gonna be running wild your only fears that he gets pulled from the game for for fear of an injury But there's a world where Gibbs Becomes an odds on favor before they hit their buy in week six Well, and then I'll be hating life because I want to be piece of that plus six. I know I know not gonna happen But I think there's some fun ones deep down the board. I mean We talked about Joe burrow earlier. What if Joe burrow puts up monster numbers But someone else has an MVP your Joe burrow offence a player of the year. Mm-hmm That's something worth considering here. I so or or if he has the year We think he's gonna have where it's historic he wins both awards The last time a quarterback won offensive player of the year was 2018 Mahomes won both his first full years A starter he won the MVP an offensive player of the year. Didn't we have a year? We split them or no I thought there was your one one one one MVP one one offensive player. Maybe it's been a while since that happened Well, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan went back to back. I think they were also MVPs that year. Okay, 2015 2016 Peyton Manning won in 2013 Peyton Manning won offensive player of the year Think about how that award is changed because now typically you have to have a quarterback to go against your burrow point here Typically a guy at quarterback is gonna have to like run for a lot I would think to be offensive player of the year now it is yeah or just Be on a mediocre team and have crazy touchdowns. That's probably it like okay mediocre team. We we with crazy that's how I was viewing it. In terms of bombs, what's your favorite bomb in this market? - I have too many. And I have some. - That's the problem. - So here's the thing I have to decide. And you know, would love some help from the audience as well. That Veecent Live at Mitch Moss Radio, I don't see wheels in on X. I'm between Luther Burton and a hundred to one for the Bears. A mecca at Buka. Before I mentioned a mecca at Buka, the Bukaniers who I was in love with last year. Here, let me give you another bold prediction from voter wire on a Buka. Finishes as a top seven wide receiver this year in fantasy. Zach Robinson's Z wide receiver roll was highlighted as an ideal fit for him. - He's good in the year ago. - Yeah, yeah, he's gonna be here. - He'll be Tampa Bay's Alpha wide receiver. I also, here's the problem. I like a couple of tight ends, but a tight end has never won the award. - Yeah, I'll give you mine. But Bauer's 70 to one tight end. And it's my first note is tight ends never won the award, but he actually has a quarterback for once. And he's the number one receiver. I don't care that they brought in Jordan Addison or whatever they brought in from, was it, no, it wasn't Addison. - It wasn't Addison. - It was the, the nailer, Jalen nailer. - There you go. - The worst one from Minnesota. - The worst of the match. It makes my case that much greater. Kubiak creative offensive mind. Is there a world where he treats Brock Bauer's, the way he treated JS and he here ago, where it's just, you're my move the sticks. I'm feeding you 8, 10, 12 times a game. He can also stretch the field for a tight end. Cousins is such a huge upgrade at quarterback. Going back through the years, he was pretty good with pits a year ago when he went back into the starting lineup. That helped get pits paid. So I just think there's a scenario where he's in the mix. I just don't know if he ultimately wins him because I brought this up to a fantasy guy a few weeks ago and he said, I get where you're coming from. But wouldn't Tramick Bride have won the award if any tight end was gonna win the award or be closer to winning the award than he was a year ago? He had a historic tight end season. - That's right. So one more piece of resistance for me and this would be, can a player win it on a team that goes, let's say the Rader's win seven games? - Do they, right? But I'm looking back right now at the list. It's all teams that want to look like 11, 12, 13 games. - But if they're losing, that means a lot more throwing from behind, which also means patting some of these stats and people at the end of the year could just go, we've never seen a tight end put up numbers like this ever in our lives. So that's why I'm considering that there's a few others that I like in this. I think this market is so much more interesting. Like Kelly Bilden brought up to me, AJ Brown 35 to one, and I think that makes sense. - Well, I wanna feel like 30 guys. - I know, so that we can't bet Pajon and Jemir Gapes - No, no, absolutely not. Winter, Sokka, Proxy, Vsyn, they're giving away two incredible prize packages that will put two lucky fans into the world's biggest football contest for free. One winner, you're gonna get a thousand dollar entry into Circa Survivor, just pick a winner each week and advance. Another will win a thousand dollar entry into Circa million. That is picking games against the spread. Both winners also receive a full season of Winter Circle Proxy Service, a Vsyn Studio Tour and a free month of Vsyn Pro. Enter by Sunday, I'll get second for your chance to win. Visit wintercircleproxy.com/vsyn, wintercircleproxy.com/vsyn. Up next, Major League Baseball, Jensen Lewis on the program. How should we approach NL MVP market? Is Otani still winning the award? If he doesn't pitch again in this regular season? (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (snaps) - This is follow the money on Vsyn. (upbeat music) - Coming up in 15 minutes, we'll get into a little Heisman Shofy talk and kick around the list of teams we think can actually win the national title this year in college football. I think my list of teams will be shorter than D-Swee'sies here. - Yeah, I like to live in a world where anything's possible but where's that really gotten me in life? Not that far. - I guess the next to you is kind of the high point. - Chuckles and knucklehead here sitting here live in Las Vegas from the circuit resort at Casino. Let's go to the progressive guest line, get some best bets tonight in Major League Baseball, Jensen Lewis joins the program. Now, Vsyn by the books, weekday mornings at 7 a.m. Hey, Jaloo, we appreciate that. Have as always, we'll get into your best bets on tonight's card, come on up in a minute. We started the show today talking a little on National League MVP. Like how open do you think this thing is? Like are we living in a dream world where we think somebody other than Otani can win it if he doesn't pitch again this year? - Yeah, I'd great to be with you boys and always great to chop it up. I think you're onto it there, Mitch, that I am still very scared of the word indefinitely that Dave Roberts has used about Otani getting back on a mound, let alone getting back into a big league game. So I think you're to September at the earliest if then. That's pretty significant. And so I do think we live in a world where this thing now becomes wide open. Correct me if I'm wrong, Mitch, I feel like you and Dustin earlier was listening to you guys coming home. And I think you have a long ticket on PCA, which I think is extremely live right now. And then James Wood and CJ Abrams, a lot is going to be predicated on where the nationals are, headed into September. You guys know as well as I do, narrative street is huge when it comes to these things. As long as CJ Abrams doesn't get traded, sounds like he's not going to. I think he's 1B with James Wood being 1A. I would lean to a James Wood ticket right now before CJ Abrams just knowing James Wood guys is going to score 100 runs before the month of August gets here, which is just insane to think about. So very live if you have the long PCA ticket in pocket. And I would be, I would be a little weary of Otani knowing that I'm not going to push him with that knee inflammation because he's so important from a designated hitter position. Jay, Jay, Jay, Lew, you like to live dangerously like we do. Mitch sent me a note before the show. And I thought it was right in line with the thinking I had preseason, which I had Paul schemes to win the MVP at 40 to 100 to one, something like that. Jacob Mizorowski is 125 to one right now. Do you think the numbers and the narrative is strong enough where if Otani falls back and maybe PCA doesn't finish that strong, could we build up a case for Mizorowski to do what Verlander and Kershaw have done recently and win both the Saiyung and MVP? I like where your heads at, Dustin. My fear would be is that Milwaukee is really going to limit his innings down the stretch here. And you've seen it already play out that if he goes longer than five innings, I'll be kind of shocked down the stretch here. He's at 120 right now. Christopher Sanchez at 138.2. And I don't think he's going to get to, you know, that innings threshold that some of the other contenders will. I am very anxious to see where Chris Sail ends up at the end of this. I think he's got the chance to go on a dominant run. But as far as where you are from an MVP perspective, boy, I think it remains a long shot there. I would rather invest looking at at CJ before I would even take a shot on Mizorowski just knowing that Milwaukee is, it's been an open secret. They want to absolutely make sure that Miz is healthy into the end of the season and then be able to kind of unleash him and not worry about the innings threshold when they get to October. Follow the money here on Vsyn. These sports betting network are guests. Jensen Lewis. You can listen to him and Dave Ross. Watch them as well. YouTube TV and beyond every single morning at seven o'clock Eastern with Vsyn. Buy the books. Your best bets for tonight. Let's get into a couple of plays that you have all labeled your two and a half unit plays. We'll begin braves, bets total here about eight and a half. Perez goes against Thornton. The schedule starters here tonight. How do you want to attack this one? Yeah, we'll play an over eight and a half here, Mitch. And a couple of things to keep in mind here. Braves and scored 60 runs in 10 games since the all star break. That is fourth most imagely baseball. You get Ron Okunye Jr. back tonight. That'll be a nice jolt to the top of the lineup. Braves are 22 17 and two to the over as a road favorite, which they will be at least in some places tonight. The reason why I also like some offense from both sides. Martin Perez for the Braves tonight, 571 ERA in his last four starts, but it's 13 walks also in 17 and a third. So plenty of traffic, even without one so to on the IL here for the Mets. I got to tell you, I know this is kind of Ziggin where people are zag and Zach Thornton's been unbelievable. The young left hander here for the braves. Mets though still 11 7 and 2 to the over as a home dog in some spot. So again, shop around on it, but just looking earlier this morning guy is situationally. Feel that the way the braves are swinging it plus getting Okunye back. And then also knowing that Martin Perez is really allowed a lot of traffic here. The last three to four times out, like the over eight to half if you can find it tonight. Martin Perez by the way, fellas, that's my guy I'm never on the right side of. If I bet on him, he stinks. If I bet against him, he's so young, kind of like Iowa football. I'm just never on the right side. All right, next game for you here, J. Lou. Diamondbacks, empires, Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller, probably two, three years ago. That was an elite pitching matchup. Plus 102 Arizona on the road. Keller minus 123 with the buck goes at home. Nine and a half the total. What do you want to do? Yeah, so this morning guys, I had taken a unit on the under and then I cashed out of it just kind of seeing where some of the other trends were going here. I'm going to go play the over eight to half now. It is a little bit juiced in the price that I got at $1.50. But again, kind of back to a same refrain. Guys, the pirates best end baseball as a home favorite to the over 25 and six and Mitch Keller a 675 year A over his last nine. With a field independent pitching of over 5.6, which is ridiculously high. Parlay that with Arizona 63 runs scored in 10 games since the Alistair Burke. That is second most immediately baseball to only the Washington Nationals. I'm not going to get in the way of it. I thought I might get cute a little bit and see where, you know, Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller have been going. I like it. I like the little bit more of Merrill Kelly, but man, this pirate offense might be able to find a way to punch through it. I think Arizona takes advantage of Keller being up in the zone. - Here's another game too, by the way. And I'm trying to think like the whole national narrative, like let's say that Chase Burns for the Reds finishes some crazy, let's say he's like 21. He's 12 and one on the year, with a sub-25 ERA. It's gonna be the least talked about guy with 20 wins that I can ever remember in my entire life. And it never happens anymore for the most part. And he's taken on a Guardian's team tonight and the Reds are big favorites, obviously. He's also, I think only, he's only lost one first five this entire year, Chase Burns. So, Jay-Lew, what's your play here on this game? - Let's start with the Burns angle 'cause it is a strong one here, Mitch. Seven straight home starts where he's allowed three runs or for you or you can go all the way back to April 16th when that streak started. Reds have been a poultry offense though here as of late. 37 runs, since the All Star break, that's 19th and Major League Baseball. And usually you see the uptick at Great American Ballpark, but Slade Taconi going for the Guardians here and the Battle for the, excuse me, the Battle for the Ohio Cup. Seven straight road starts where he is actually allowed three runs or fewer. That streak is since May 7th. And for whatever reason, guys, Taconi can get you into a little bit of a cluster here as a hitter where you should see it well and then all of a sudden it's by you. It's a deceptive fastball and sinker. And as long as he has some decent breaking stuff tonight, the injury to Spencer Steer is gonna be a problem for the Reds. They have outside of Ellie De La Cruz. There's not been a lot to write home about with this offense. So I'm gonna air on the side of both these pictures kind of continue their trends both home and road. And then also a couple of offenses that since the second half has started guys has really lacked a lot of production. - We were kicking around this play as well. So we like where your head's at. Fill it all feel laying one and a half on the road. Miami, the Marlins can't get out of their own way. Wheeler feels like he's got a chip on his shoulder. Minus one and a half now is minus one 13 on the road with the fills total seven and a half. They're minus two dollars on the money line plus one 60 with the fish. Talk to me about the process with the fillies. - Man, you're right Dustin. He is absolutely p-oed for the snub at the All Star Breakin. And that is a dangerous animal to try and wrangle. This is a great spot situationally. Of course, the Marlins on that historic 12 game losing streak. They're averaging only two and a half runs scored during that and three runs or fewer scored and 10 to their last 12 overall. I would say that Wheeler two, great spot. And I think Dustin I heard you talk about one to ladder the strikeouts. I'm all for that. He's had three straight starts now allowing two runs or fewer. And the fillies average almost five runs of support in the games that he has started since he's come off the injury list. I'm not getting in front of it. I don't think anything's changes here tonight. Fillies with a big outburst in Sunday night baseball. I think it carries over to South Beach tonight. - All right, same thing with the Brewers tonight. They cover this game by margin when by two runs or more at the Giants. - Yeah, Giants have been bet. This is just a situational spot Mitch where we're getting a pitching mismatch. Tyler Malley who gets it for the Giants tonight. Almost a five ERA in his last four starts. Five innings or fewer two and three of those last four. And Brandon Sprote, five straight starts allowing two runs or fewer. He's had a 274 ERA. Just love the mismatch here. And this Brewers offense guys, well oiled machine they can beat in so many different ways. Love them to continue those good vibes out there in the Bay Area. - Very good. Pleasure is always, Jensen. We appreciate it. Best of luck tonight. - Thanks guys. Talk to you soon. - There you go, Jensen Lewis on the Progressive Guest Line. Seven a.m. every day right here money through Friday with Dave Ross, Vs and by the books. - You think I passed Polly for most papers used on the network on the desk at one time? - You might be there. - I was trying to organize during the break and I realized Paul's consolidated and now that he actually uses a computer. When I produced you guys, Paul was on his phone the entire show. - Yeah. And I think that he has pushed like 30 papers on the desk at one time. - I'm pretty close right now. - You're getting there. I'll look back a little bit there, pal. College football up next. You love betting the Heisman Show. - Love it. - Okay, I feel like there was one player I need as a FOMO bet this year. Is it a wise investment or burning money? I'll ask D-Swizy next. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (snaps) - This is Polly the Money on V-San. - I tell you the truth here about betting the Heisman Trophy. I used to love betting this award not that many years ago, but to me with the, like how instability now rains in college football and it's tough to like, you can't just look at a team ever again and say, oh my god, look at that. They have 19 sophomores who contributed this year and 14 juniors who are all gonna be back. And this quarterback has three, that doesn't happen anymore. So it's like you gotta play this puzzle and try to put the pieces together of where okay, I think this quarterback with all these brand new pieces is going to be in for an unbelievable year. And I just like to me, it's too much homework now. And I don't, well, I don't enjoy it to be honest. - Let me add to it, it's the worst voter base that you have to handicap because I think it's the dumbest. And I don't mean that like in a mean way. I just mean, there are people who have Heisman votes who don't watch games. - That's very true. - Watch one team. If you go look on social media, I do this on X now, they made it a little harder to search for it. But if you search Heisman voter, there will be people's profiles who pop up that still have Heisman votes that have not covered college football for years, but they still somehow are in the association to vote for this award. I don't understand like when I worked on Mad Dog Sports Radio, Chris Mad Dog, Rousseau is my idol in this business. I grew up wanting to be him. - That's the ball time. - He voted for the award. He barely watched the games on Saturday. Like it should be the people who are die hard who know the sport in and out. And that's why you have to really think about who they're gonna look at and who they're gonna consider because the days of a cult Bren and Rest in Peace being invited to the ceremony feel like they're gone. That little underdog that puts up monster numbers that you know what? He deserves the acknowledgement. And once that happens, you can do something in the market if you have a big number on. - Gentie couldn't win a couple years ago. - It's crazy man. I mean, we go back in time too. There's so many misses like Endoma Consu probably should have won the year. I can't have won that year. - McCaffrey didn't win. That's right. - That's all you need to know. - I think Toby Gerhard got closer than McCaffrey did. - That's how you might be right. - Yeah, so I mean, there is one bet that I want to make I think it's a FOMO bet. But before I ask you who that is or tell you who that is and see if I have your permission to make a bet on him. So how do you, to me it's also like throwing darts a little bit here and trying to figure out like which quarterback do I really want to land on? And so you can't, this goes back to our offensive player of the year discussion in the NFL. You're not taking too many guys near the top of the list. You just, that's not very why. So how do you do it here? - I love CJ Carr and I love Notre Dame this year and I am such a big Notre Dame hater. You can't bet him at seven to one. He might beat you. That's fine. If he beats me at seven to one, tip your hat, move on. Like I just can't tie it. My money for that. Archmaning at seven and a half to one is so mean and cruel to archmaning in his future. I know a lot of people saw something down the stretch from him a year ago. - A bunch of film people saying he would be the number one pick in the draft. - Sure, good luck. God bless. (laughing) I'm sorry. I'm sure there's talent there. I just don't think it warrants being number two on this board. To me, this list begins at 10 to one with Dante Moore who I had last year at 25 to one. And after the Penn State win, I was already celebrating cash in that ticket. Long season to go. My first bet in this market was the guy right after him. And Circus, the only spot that has the number this long. Dary and Mensa, Miami Hurricanes, 16 to one. He's 11 to 112 to one everywhere else. But a couple of reasons I got here. We've reached a point with the transfer portal where I need to know which programs are able to acclimate new guys in well. Who has success, winning right away with new pieces, and they have a system for it. Miami's proven that back to back years, especially with quarterbacks, came Ward came over from Washington state. He was the best quarterback in the portal. No one saw him being a number one pick. Thrived in this offense, number one pick with the Titans now. Carson Beck got them all the way to a national title game. Okay, that's better than what he did with Georgia. Now you enter Mensa who has a ton of experience. He played at Tulane as a freshman, had 2700 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions. At Duke led them to the title game in the ACC, 67% completion rate, 3900 yards, 34 touchdowns, six interceptions. He has Shannon Dawson as his OC. You should probably be ahead coach somewhere, but he's so good in this system in Miami. They've been able to retain him for another season. I think that there's a chance Mensa puts up huge numbers. You also factor in Tony returns on the outside, who's gonna be better, but he's also receiver who takes short passes a long way. So that's risk-free throws where the receivers do and all the work. Barcade, his top receiver, comes from Duke who was originally at Harvard. They have chemistry. He put up monster numbers a year ago, plus a transfer from West Virginia, a transfer from South Carolina in a system that just gets guys on the same page. They're gonna win the ACC, they're one of two teams that are odds on favor to win their league right now. They're a playoff team. To me, everything says Mensa. On a Miami team where the defense takes a step back and probably needs a few more points, could have a better season than Beck and Ward did. - So you mentioned my FOMO guy, and it's Malachi Tony. - The problem is, I feel like it's so obvious, because he was the guy who had all the steam last year. And people, I can recall them saying, I can't wait to get the Heisman odds for next year to bet on Malachi Tony, because you figure he is such a complete stud, and you can use him 100 different ways if you would like. He's 38 to one, the biggest number on the board, and I'm sure some people are listening. right now saying, yeah, Mitch, I bet him a long time ago to much higher number. Sure. Sure. But I wasn't going to lock up my money on the Heisman trophy all the way back in February. 35, 38 to 1 in Malachi, Tony. This is typically an award that goes to a quarterback. However, in recent years, we saw Devonth East Smith get out with Alabama and then Travis Hunter, the two-way player, take it down for Colorado a couple years ago. What do you make it, Tony? Okay. I love Tony. I think you need major special teams production. You need some kick return. You need Devon Hester type stuff from F. You need more than just a receiver. Yeah, because here's the problem. The quarterback positions never been better in college football. Everyone's going to complain about the NIL and transfer portal. You know what it's done? It's gotten us a leaked quarterback play because guys aren't forcing themselves into league to be third round picks. They're saying, why would I do that? I can make more money, play out my senior season and play in a system that makes me look better to potentially go into second round or first round if things go right. You have so many quarterbacks with so much experience and incredible situations. It is hard to look away. And you know me, I like to make a case for these guys off the grid. But to me, you have so many elite quarterbacks. Tony's going to have to be so much better and they're all going to have to be average or take votes away from each other for him to really be in the mix. All right. You recently talked about this with Tim Murray, by the way, in the college football betting podcast here, which is available now. Murray does it once a week, multiple times a week actually. And you were talking about what the Heisman and your bets on this, by the way, when was the first Heisman bet that you made? Do you remember like two weeks ago? Three weeks ago, I meant to he went, meant to, how does it look beyond him then? Okay. My other one I love and I know Miserro loves this as well. Bear Bachmeyer at BYU. I don't really. He's got some monster tickets on him. Yeah. He's down to 50 60 to one. I still like it there, man. That kid was thrown into the fire a year ago. And he also has the mobility. He's going to call his own number. I'm not calling him Tim Tibo, but it's got Tibo vibes to me, just kind of the attitude, the dropping his shoulder at the goal line to try and get in the end zone. And I think BYU has a chance to win that league. I think Texas Tech is a tad bit overrated as a favorite to win the big 12 at minus 105 fish. I think BYU has a case. And if they win the league and he has the season, I think he's capable of having with the touchdowns being scored in a high octane league with a lot of offense. I think he makes sense. And here's the the bomb that I like. And this goes against conventional wisdom, because I don't think the team's going to be good. But I do think the player, the system, the fit, the new location, he could put up such BYUKU stats that he jumps off the page. That's Drew Mesta maker going over to Oklahoma State. He's 72 to one. He goes to the set coach, doesn't have to learn a system. Bring over a ton of weapons in the portal at receiver. Expectations are so low, you just feel like they might knock off someone they shouldn't early. And that could put his name on the map. He'll need 10 wins probably. I don't know. I don't think he can get there. I think the win total is five and a half. Yeah, they're going to really have to like, so our past expectations. I'm going to need like a historic touchdown year from Mesta maker, which based on what he did at North Texas, I, it's not likely 72 to one, but I just want a piece of him in case it happens. Is that your current list on right now? That's where I met. So the other names I'm considering, I want to throw your way. The one that I know is going to lose, but I'm going to bet anyway is Avery Johnson at 125 to one. Don't bet him. Do not that Avery Johnson. That's can it cannot be a winning ticket. The other one that's going to break my heart that's not going to win is John Matier at 25 to one. He can win. I love him. I think people are forgetting. He was the Heisman and then potential number one pick in the draft. He heard his that's right. Burn himself. And then he came back to early for the red river. And he was not right the rest of the way. Also considering Marcel read it 35 to one. I don't. The number is a little bit long, but he lost his OC and Colin Climbed the two at the top. That would hurt my men's case that maybe have better, better chances. Dante more to Oregon. Because he has Evan Stewart coming back to carrying more a UAB transfer, but he has a new host, OC and Eugene, but Trinidad and Chandler's at 13 to one. I see that's the guy that I can't ignore. He lost weapons is my concern. I don't know if I try Pete Golding, but there's schedules little brutal to it is, but it's a bit shameless. If you if you just wiped away like everybody knew that he, okay, this kid's been around college forever. He's like 26 years old. If you didn't know that and you watched him play last year, would you not say he was the best player in college football and probably the number one pick over on the draft? You would say it's the closest thing you've seen to Mike Vic with the presence with the ball in his hands, deciding to run or throw like it's he blew me away. It last year. Any recap to remember that is number one receivers on the Niners. He lost his tight end to the draft. He lost his OC and Charlie White Jr. and Lane Kiffin. There's a lot there. Like to your point of making it's kind of like dart throws to me. You can make the case for a bunch of the other guys who we never even brought up right there. My Ava USC what I can't stand Ohio State, but Julian saying I mean there's everything I just said leaves me to believe Julian saying it's winning the swore. And up next we'll kick around players. We bet to win awards in the NFL and who is the longest shot that can win an NFL division. That's next year on Visa.