Fiona Hill: The World in 2026 (Part Two)

Welcome to Intelligent Squared, Where Great Minds Meet. I'm producer Mia Cerenty. Today's episode is part two of our recent live event with Fiona Hill, recorded at Union Chapel in London. In conversation with John Soaple, Hill explored the issue shaping our world in 2026. Drawing on her insider experience from Trump's White House and advising the UK Government on responding to risks from an emboldened Russia and a less predictable United States, Hill shared light on the growing influence authoritarian regimes today, and outlined the practical steps the West must take to protect security and stability. If you haven't heard part one yet, we recommend jumping back an episode to get up to speed. Now let's rejoin the discussion live at Union Chapel. One of the arguments would be of Trump's success if you want to put it like that is kind of making Europe realise that it has to do more. Is it yet in a position to do more to pick up the slack? You know, if there is to be a ceasefire or some kind of peace deal or whatever it is, security guarantees from the US. Yeah, but it's a 2,000 kilometre long border between, you know, you look what it took to maintain peace around Kosovo. That took thousands of peacekeepers. And if you've got the Ukrainians, they're not going anywhere. So this is actually what I find frustrating, I know Ukrainians and many others find frustrating as well. I mean, what the Ukrainians are not leaving Ukraine. So who is the most formidable fighting force in Europe right now? Made to Ukraine and Ukrainians. So I mean, the Ukrainians are not asking people to fight for them. They're not asking anybody that. Just pay attention to what Zelensky is saying and everyone else. They want to have support in terms of military support, moral support, political support, not to be sold out. The astounding thing is, you know, if we think about it now, is Putin thought he would be in charge of Ukraine after a matter of days or weeks at the most. He thought he was doing a 1956 in Hungary or 1968 in Prague. This was a special military operation. It wasn't supposed to be a full-on war. It wasn't supposed to be, you know, World War III in Europe. But that's what he's got in for himself because the Ukrainians fought back. Now, Ukrainians were formerly part of the Soviet Union, formerly part of the Russian Empire. They come from the same stock. They're fighting people. And so, you know, they're a whole idea that, you know, the Ukrainians are like, you know, former, you know, Yugoslav, you know, Serbs or Bosnians. I mean, this is just not the case. I mean, this is the need to have support over the longer term because they'll have to rebuild and they need to be able to get weapons, but they're also the most innovative fighting force. I mean, we in the United Kingdom and also in the United States have been looking and learning from what the Ukrainians have done. I mean, they've crowdsourced this war. The innovation has been phenomenal. I mean, it's very depressing the whole situation. What they've had to do, you've got a mixture of, you know, good old-fashioned, horrific war of attrition, trench warfare, like we saw in World War I and previous wars. And you've got this 21st century drones, you've got lasers, you've got all kinds of things. There's new weapon that the Ukrainians have devised, the Flamingo, and lots of companies, including, you know, big tech companies and defense companies from around Europe and elsewhere, are looking at what the Ukrainians have done. So, the Ukrainians have beaten down, yes, but they're not beaten. So, let me ask you about the UK, where UKO led the strategic defense review that was unveiled last year. How ready is Britain? In what state are our defenses and armed forces if, you know, Ukraine wants to buy our weaponry or whatever? Is there the stock? Is there the ability to step up? Well, we can't do it individually. And I don't think anybody in a suggesting that, you know, we do, because everything that we're talking about is a larger European or European members of NATO efforts, you know, plus. So, that's, you know, what we're always talking about, but look, if we think about the situation since 1989, the UK always anticipated, after that particular point, that it would be fighting alongside the United States and expeditionary wars, which is what the United Kingdom did in terms of Afghanistan and Iraq and, you know, other special forces type operations. You know, obviously we've, you know, played a very important role in the high seas, particularly in the high north and the Arctic and elsewhere in the North Sea, you know, working with counterparts there. But we'd always thought of ourselves as being more of an expeditionary force and also, you know, taking advantage of our global bases. And we'd never anticipated until really what we start to see in the war in Ukraine that the homeland would be vulnerable. And frankly, you know, what we've seen, all of us have seen over the last four or five years, you know, should force a reassessment. And one of the main things that we said in the strategic defence review was that we should have a national conversation about the situation that we're in now. And we haven't really had much of us. Because, I mean, the real risk for the UK and not the tanks are going to appear over the Suffolk down, something, you know, see them coming from a vital world, but it's drone attacks, it's sabotage operations, it's attacks on critical national infrastructure, the kind of things that we've seen happening on Ukraine. And maybe it wouldn't take drones going after all of our heating and energy plants. But, you know, we have one pipeline, for example, that brings, you know, 70% of gas imports coming from nowhere. And it was the Ukrainians that blew up Nord Stream with a group of divers. You know, so it wouldn't really, unfortunately, sadly, you know, take too much to sabotage that pipeline. And then, you know, forget the one-to-fuel bill scandal. I mean, most people won't be having any gas coming. You think about, you know, what happened with London, he threw a airport when one of the transformers blew. That could have been sabotage, it wasn't, but, you know, that kind of episode, what happened in Spain where, you know, their grid failed. I mean, again, wasn't sabotage. But all you can see is exactly how easy it is to take out pretty much 90% of the best of the services and the technology that we rely on. So we have to start thinking about how we harden all of this. It's not just about, you know, how many troops do we have in the army, but a mindset. And the Ukrainians themselves were incredulous, you know, four, five years ago. They didn't believe also that Putin was going to invade. Because most people thought that why would he? I mean, that was ridiculous. You know, of course he wouldn't do that. And Putin himself wanted a special military operation. So nobody can actually believe that the worst will happen. But we have to get into that mindset of the worst could happen and we need to prepare ourselves, along with others. So you listen to Kierstarmann and he has trod ever so gently with Donald Trump. He still asserts that the special relationship is special and the five eyes agreement and the interoperability between US forces and UK forces is America still a reliable ally to the UK? Does NATO article five still exist? Only I would say in strategic nuclear terms. Because I mean, Trump again, getting back to what we were talking about before he takes that very seriously. But in terms of conventional military, the United States has been saying every which way it possibly can for a long time as well, not just Trump. I mean, Trump has just been rudder and blunter and more direct about it. But if we go back decades, if you go back to Kennedy, for example, and or you go back to Barack Obama, who was very polite and nice about it back in 2014 when there was the summit here in the United Kingdom in Wales, for NATO, which is already around the time that Putin sees Crimea. They were basically saying everybody's got to spend more because the United States is not going to be footing the bill anymore. And I think the big mistake was made here in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. And other NATO countries, Canada included, was this kind of sense that the United States had made some decision for the ages to basically be constantly paying for everybody else's security. And they absolutely hadn't. They just weren't being very clear about it. So probably this should have been renegotiated back in 2010 or 2009 when, for example, Europe signed when the UK was still part of it, the Lisbon Treaty, and became more of a political geopolitical entity. And that would have been a good time then, and it would have a big conversation about what's the implications of all of this. I mean, I know that many European countries were not then part of NATO, Sweden, Finland, etc. But I mean Trump's view, and why is he wrong, is it once Sweden and Finland join NATO, and there's almost Britain's obviously crashed out of the European Union. But if you've got more of this overlap between EU and NATO, why isn't it that all of these European countries are not paying more for their defence? And he's just finally saying, we're just not paying for it. And now in terms of then being a reliable partner, that is very tricky. Because I mean Trump and this may all sound weird to people, he actually likes Europe, but only in the kind of the way that he thinks about royal families and his own links to it. But many of the people around him absolutely do not. You all heard signal gate, or at least red, Jeffrey Gullberg from the outlandics, reprise of being inadvertently included into this big signal chat about what was happening in the streets of whole moves with the Houthis, and what everybody was saying about Europe. That's what they feel about it. When I'm sitting in DC all the time, people are saying scathing things about Europe, and I'm sorry the meaners as well in the UK. I mean occasionally they kind of start being a little kinder, but generally the whole feeling as ATOs of you know best. a'n crede. Pad i gen yn meddwlant fy yn y 100% Ministfa ac y bolydeau. Rhaorn van Lhingues dim y fixed lew fy sgledig o splyr Krank Touch a yw'n elwyn yo ddim yn partw getwnes popping wneud ddehyol and健au gwneud. Dwi'n wirodd, diwn, cymru reyn un eithbigio, rwy'n eraith pludio i w wirud â hieniau wedi bod siddung i fynd yn inhau i angen tri生 daio os y mor me布 dy hust親 ac dar nid moŭc rwerddu fydd yn es lesbortarnaer wedi a yna writh omordeon siu kaetis roedd mnydryd o Dabetboedd ryda i abhoedd nhw cy級r yn digbostor w'ell yna, fáwn explicityn ei gyny contagious a chnychol ei rhydd and barbiau cysylltu Holes are spending pretty much 5% of GDP right now on defense, because they're really close. I mean, admittedly you said the Spanish and the Portuguese are not so much, but you've got a whole host of other countries who were right there, and are really thinking very seriously about the security. The day in there infuriated about what happened over Greenland, the Canadians who, you know, previously were not that interested in building up their own defense. They've got really angry about the whole 51st state discussion. They're actually seriously talking under Mark Carney, not just about, you know, from his Davos speech, having different economic relationships, but also kind of working more closely with the European partners in NATO to rethink their security. And I fear the UK is going to get left behind, because, you know, the Germans, they didn't de-industrialise, they've still got all these factories there, they're not, you know, competing in the same way as they were, in car manufacturing, they're raring to go to kind of build these, you know, factories back up again to do something else. You heard Friedrich Meetz, the German Chancellor, you know, talking about this at the Munich Security Conference. I was just in Switzerland 10 days ago, the Swiss, they've got a really, you know, serious defence manufacturing, they're neutral, but they're thinking this is a great opportunity for Swiss business and, you know, the same with the Norwegians, the Swedes, and the Finns have never let their guard down. You know, the Finns will have conscription. And I asked one of the heads of the Finnish military, why they didn't stop conscription. After 1989, because they said, well, we'd never get it back again. And we never let our guard down with Russia, because, you know, 1939, after we'd been independent for about 20 years, the Soviets invaded, and we always thought they'd come back again for another bite. I'm going to ask you one more question before I open it up to all of you, which is this, if Kirstaamur on the phone to you now, I mean, he may have already been on the phone to you. No, he hasn't done it. All right, okay. If Kirstaamur on the phone to you now, what would you tell him, he needs to do his prime minister? Get a move on. It's as simple as that. I mean, in terms of the. Look, it's not so easy, is it? Because of all the politics and everything as well. But we need some bold action. In terms of strategic defense review, you know, we had it published in June, but it was ready, you know, basically this time last year, and there was all these conversations across Whitehall about, you know, the UK having to really kind of step up and meet the moment. But it inevitably, you know, got bogged down in, you know, discussions about, you know, obviously financing and also the larger politics. And people being worried about talking to people, you know, about the state of affairs. And I don't think that, you know, the government should be frightened of talking to people. We did some focus groups and some citizens assemblies, you know, busy getting people together randomly who lived, you know, near bases across the country. And people got it. They understand that defense spending was for insurance. And immediately they didn't want to spend loads on more on defense. But they understood what was happening. And I think people are much better informed than perhaps the government knows. The other thing is people need to get outside of London. I mean, I'm from the northeast. I was shocked by how little people ever go out of London, you know, honestly. And I mean, part of it's, you know, the change I'm talking about. So you're saying going to offer this doesn't kind of. No, that doesn't. I mean, we actually, our focus groups aren't going to further north and Lincoln. And I kept saying, you know, Lincoln's not very far north, you know. No, a French-Slingkin, but, you know, there's a lot more country. And I think you've got a. It's not a big country. This is where the size of Oregon. And I know the trends are not always on time for God's sake. But look, you can get out across the country, you can go and talk to people. And I think if you meet people where they're out, which is you do with your podcasts and, you know, you did, you know, kind of privacy in your role, people are pretty well informed. And they want to be talked to, they want to be engaged. And I think that that would make the politics of this a lot easier. Because it's not just a question of, you know, are you going to cut this and that to get another cruise missile? It's about this mindset, critical national infrastructure. Are people going to be prepared? The fins, the suede, the Norwegians, the dames, there's all kinds of other people around Europe who are already doing this. And we just got to get ourselves back into that kind of mindset that it's not a safe world anymore. Would you also tell Kierstarmatt to toughen up in the way he deals with Donald Trump? Don't pander. I think the other thing is he would be careful, obviously, publicly, because we know Trump doesn't take kindly to insults. There's no point in engaging in what the Americans say is pissing much in public with him. But just don't pander. And even if you're trying to manage it on the surface, get on with what you have to be doing with Planet BCD and E. It cannot just be Planet to try to manage Trump all the time, because he is completely nutley and predictable. [Music] Right. I'm just going to give you, before we get the first question, we ask you, we did a bit of polling on whether Russia poses a real threat to Western Europe. And I can give you the results of that. Now, those who thought, yes, it directly represented a threat, was 39%. Yes, mainly through covert or hybrid attacks, 55%, so 94% think Russia is some kind of that. No, Russia is overstretched, 2%, not sure, 4%. So I think it squares pretty much with. Let's see, everyone's well informed. Yeah, with your analysis. Because I mean, Russia is overstretched, which also pushes them more into the hybrid attacks. And we've got all these sabotage operations going on. So you can just, you know, that they will do more of this. Right. They just used poison frog darts, you know. Poison frog darts on Navalny. After, you know, Polonium, I mean, the first, you know, basically dirty bomb was poor Alexander Lippinenko here in London. I mean, you can just imagine that somebody sitting around there thinking about the horrible nasty things, I should never drink that water. And as soon as you didn't do that, you know, but horrible nasty things that they can do to people. When I interviewed the president, they had a cover with the seal of the president of the United States. Now he took a sip on. Yeah, you know, that they, that concerned about it. Right. Let us open it up to questions, please. And we're going to, those who were watching it online, have got sent in questions. And also, if you're up in the cheap seats, that's rude. I know you're not in the cheap seats. But there are microphones. I think at the front there, so if you want to kind of line up by a microphone there or there, then can we have the house lights up? Because I can't see a bloody thing in here. I can't see anything. There we are. Oh, you're, thank God there are people here. We've got blind. I thought there was nobody here. I didn't realise it was like this. Could it just be the people in the people? Right. There's a gentleman right behind you there in the black jumper, I think. You can, and if you, and if you could be a question rather than a statement, I'd be really grateful to him for that. I'll try. Thank you, firstly, thank you very much. You painted a picture that the world of eyes of mid-60 year-old grew up in is over. A couple of questions. Firstly, you mentioned about the increasing independence of the states. At a conference about a decade ago, I was asked, will the United States remain united in 25 years' time? The answer then was about 70% yes, 30% not sure. What do you think the states of the United States will be in 25 years' time? Thank you very much. That's a great question. I wish I'd thought of it myself. Yeah, I know exactly. Having just been in Switzerland, that was actually one of the conversations at the conference that I was out as well. Because you know, think about Switzerland as a very weak central government. And all of the emphasis is really in the cantons. And you know, Switzerland isn't so big, so it tends to work fairly effectively. And one of the people who was at the Swiss conference was from the American Chamber of Commerce in Switzerland. And said that just in the last few months, they've had five delegations coming from individual states in America the first time ever, you know, basically to think about setting up their own representations in Switzerland. So that's just, you know, again, one swallow doesn't make a spring going back to what I said before. But it's also really a sign that the states are starting to think, look, you know, we're going to have to act differently, but given what the federal government is doing, because what Donald Trump is doing is treating also many the individual states, also with the same kind of treatment, tariffs and, you know, all kinds of negative actions as he is doing to allies and adversaries alike, you know, on the world stage. And that is having impact. So I, you know, basically asking myself this same question that you are, could we very well see this loosening of the central government with more, I mean, a lot of people in the United States have always been in favour of this. This federalist, for example, always believed that just like Congress is the main locus of power at the federal level, BUT SHOULD PAR OLLATION, Spol y honnoedd yn Cael ei gewith i broc blawn yn un Nawr eraill yn fwy hyndiad yr borhd. Elefyr fawn di gen ni. 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