Feed market outlook and El Nino

Hello everyone, it's Friday the 16th of October and welcome to Episode 313 of The Kite Podcast with me, Will Evans and me, Ben Eagle. Today we're looking at the feed markets, especially in the context of current global events and El Nino. We're joined by Chris Pickles, who is procurement manager for Astero. We're also joined by podcast producer Becky Ray and everybody's favourite dairy market analyst Chris Walkland. Chris Walkland over to you for the milk market report, where are you this week? Well, I've got my later hosen on again today, and Mikey Dapper, I look too much and see Becky is already mopping her brow at the very thought. And I'm here again to look at German milk volumes as they are critical to the next few months, and the good news is that German volumes look as if they are pretty much equal with last year. Last year, 2025 at this time, volumes flatlined for weeks at the trough, but this year they're continuing to trend down, and the year on year increase has narrowed to just 0.6%. It has been tracking several percentage points above it, remember. So that is good news that volumes are trending as they are. Aside from another decent GDT pulse auction for Arles Skin Milk Powder though, that's about the only bit of good news I've got for you this week. So SMP continued to trend upwards giving another boost to EU valuations, and I'll come to that in a bit. However Dutch butter, I'm afraid, or European butter is an absolute basket case, and it is I'm afraid taking cream values down with them. So Dutch butter dropped another 200 euros this week to 3,700 euros. It's the biggest weekly drop since April to the lowest price for five years. It's desperate stuff. So we've got skin at the highest price for five years, butter at the lowest, and the Dutch price is still higher than the spot market price, which some traders say is 100 euros less. UK butter is higher at 3,400 sterling to 3,500, so it's holding up but nevertheless under pressure. So to cream and cream was at £1.75 a kilo a few weeks ago, this week I'm getting reports that it is less than £1.40 in some cases. So let me make it clear again and less this cream price increases then. There is more chance of Becky asking me to marry her than there is of milk prices from liquid processors holding for December or January. I nearly made a comment that it was worth you talking about your later person to hear that news on the German malt volumes and then you've totally spoiled Lake Chris. Well, there you are. I can dream. On from marrying Becky too, yeah, liquid milk prices might hold for a month, might hold for December, but to hold through the winter cream needs to jump back to at least £1.75. For further price increases, I would like to see £2 for cream on the board and that looks a very long way away. In contrast to butter though, a skimilt powder continues to climb. In fact, Dutch food grade increased this week by €170 to €3,600 almost and that's its biggest weekly jump ever or certainly that I can find. It's increased by €900 and a third since the price last dropped in late June. Nevertheless, despite butter's fall, we've got an empty price of around £30 still, so skims price is compensating for butter's fall but not making any great progress. And if the real market price for butter is bad, stick your fingers in your ears and start humming loudly for my futures price update because butter futures have had a calamitous run over the last few weeks and this week's the worst average prices have dropped by another €130 over the next six months so that's through from November to April. It's lost €300 in two weeks, €460 over four weeks and the average is now down to €4.50 with two contracts below €4,000 and to put that in context the recent high was €4,750 a month ago. More positively though, skim milk powder futures have increased by €165 this week so that's again of €230 over two weeks and €430 over the month to average €3675 so some very positive gains there. On to cheese and I've been warning for a few weeks now that the UK price for mild is being undermined by much lower prices for Irish and on the continent. UK mild shadow was at €3,400 sterling continental in Irish at about €3,200 but I think the UK price is a last slipping down to €3,300 and again this does not bode well for December cheese prices. I'm not sure if the processes will drop or not for December but they certainly won't be increasing their prices. There's also been slippage on mozzarella that's down to €3,000 sterling now at a minimum and a bit lower on the continent like cheddar that price does not talk to a €36 pence milk price which the two mozzarella makers are paying not even with a decent way price. Finally spot milk is at €38 to €44 depending on who wants to buy and sell and what markets they are in. So there you are S&P and way are fine but fat and cheese are both in a pickle so two pickles and with another pickle as a guest. Apparently the name pickle was first recorded in 1788 and the name was used to describe a mischievous or rogued boy. Good HR on the line immediately back here I say in case our guest goes well rogue and ban and will can't keep him in order. Goodbye. At HR on the line every time somebody went rogue Chris you'd not have made it to 300 not episodes but yeah the benefit of being on here and pre-recorded slightly is that I get to cut out some of your most offensive and rude like behavior. I was about to say Chris that was one of the best segways ever with the pickles they got like you got to keep that one in there. Thank you Chris. Chris Pickles welcome back to the show show veteran nearly I think you qualify for now but for anyone who hasn't heard you on the show before can you introduce yourself please. It's great to be back I think this is number three appearance and so I'm Chris Pickles I'm procurement manager within KW part of the Estara Group I've been with the business for 18 years involved in the feed industry for all of that obviously and in the last few years and very much buying and the raw materials into our production sites so living and breathing some of these raw material markets that we're going to come on to speak about okay so what are the headlines in terms of the feed markets at the moment yeah headlines and phone prices and volatility I think would be the main two and pulled some numbers looking back at where we were this time last year and basically everything's firmer wheat 40 pounds up year on year maize 35 pounds up year on year your proteins are up significantly so I'm ill we're talking 100 pound of tonne firmer rate meals 80 pound the tonne firmer and then fibres sugar beet we're talking 75% 75 pound sorry firmer should be well over 300 pound a ton if you can get hold of it at the moment and Soils the same up 50 pound a ton year on year. So yes, much firmer price is this time I didn't into this winter than a year ago Okay If we look at the bigger picture in terms of global political events, but also currency situations What are the key events and factors shaping the markets right now? Yeah, geopolitics are the massive part of the moment. I'm sure many of the listeners will be well aware of of the things going on Doesn't take much looking to to find some of the headlines of the the the major conflicts that are going on in the world right now We've got Middle East US in Iran, but equally now and Saudi Arabia being dragged into this with the who theatres of Yemen and escalations through the Red Sea That obviously is straight off our moves is that is the main one that's impacted oil prices over the last Number of months since February time now were were eight months into this and very little sign of any kind of resolution there US midterm elections are upcoming President Trump's Volatility is change of tack is unpredictable ability is a huge factor that's playing in our markets at the moment We'll come on to talk about Elmenia. I think but that is something we cannot ignore and Headlines breaking in the last couple week or so France and their challenges. That's weighing on currency in the EU Big economic concerns there fuel prices and energy costs inflation feeding through into fertilizer costs everything's very volatile and very inflationary and Showing little sign of any settling down the escalations are still more likely than resolutions in my opinion at this moment in time So yes a huge amount of unpredictability and uncertainty Yeah quite a situation I mean that the Russia Ukraine conflict now it's gone on longer than the first world war now. We're heading into another winter For you what was the specific impacts of this right now in terms of global supply and prices? Yeah, so really good question Ben because they're the blacks For many for a couple of years with somewhat ignored the situation clearly in 2022 and this broke out It was a big thing and impacted our our right markets hugely namely We've been the main one with them being one of the two of the main producers of wheat in the world Huge bread basket producer in that part of the world, but things settle down for a couple of years but in recent months have really escalated again and It's not so much a production issue as an availability issue for me and The grain is there the challenge is getting it out of the countries Because the change of tact that we've seen in the last couple of months has been a focus on infrastructure and On vessels and the very Mechanisms through which they export these their products so the black sea ports Through which 80% of the grain would pass out of Ukraine and Russia are effectively inoperable at the moment. There's that much damage of that many strikes that have occurred Then that the grain is just not moving and we're seeing in the region of us and yet it's peak Roughly a million tons of wheat of grain Being lost and I say lost it's just not coming out of the country so to speak It's still mounting up the stocks are gonna grow at some point that grain has to go somewhere But at the moment it's very much struggling to make it's way out of the country Which is pushing your major importers namely North Africa Asia to seek safe Origins elsewhere, so normally they would be going to Russia and Ukraine they can't get it from there Or there's too much risk in sending vessels into that part of the world that they're going to US well US to a lesser extent, but South America Argentina will export Australia a major exporter Canada a major exporter and also Europe and at the moment France and and North West Europe Is the they can't go to safe haven with the most liquid availability So that's that's where whether the The main crux of of demand is it is heading but the key for me is The extent to which global importers stocks decline overlaid with any resolution in the Black Sea If stocks get too tight and we've not seen any resolution in the Black Sea that's got that's a recipe for firmer prices If we see a resolution then of course the pressure is off somewhat and and Normally in time will will resume, but there's a lot of damage being done It's going to take a lot of time but for the time being in the Black Sea low-farm gate prices $100 a tonne they're being talked as regularly as a weak price ex-farm Which is very much disincentivizing the farmer from selling if they if they can afford to put equally disincentivizing plantings with you crop and as much of this Nearby problem is an old crop problem This probably the longer this conflict rumbles on the more it will become a new crop problem and we we've plantings currently 10 the decade low pace The the significant longer term risk as well. So yes, it's a the Black Sea Conflict is a key influence on our on our supply chains at this moment time. Yeah, do we know how much grain is piling up in the region? It's it's significant as say They are pushing the grain to other exporters So Russia are currently diverting as much as they can up to their Baltic ports But those ports can't keep up with the rate that they were normally export you saw them to in the region of 6 to 800,000 tons a week have I'm moving out from that part the world where normally they'd be doing two million a week So at the moment we're seeing slow and steady the downgrade It's these circulated by the like status is not quite keeping up with the Actuals of how slow the grain is moving at the moment Time will tell on that We've heard a lot about El Nino this year - Chris. How is this having an impact and what impact might it still have as we move through the coming months? Yeah, El Nino has been something that's built over the last Probably six months or so in maybe six months back we first heard talks of a growing chance of El Nino Come the end of this year and into 2027 and that's certainly built and in some reports. You would hear it referred to as a super El Nino You would normally expect El Nino to cause significant Impact to Australia so very very warm and dry weather across Australia You would see warm and dry weather across Asia and Indonesia Malaysia that part of the world But then more mixed conditions across South America and North America, North America, warm and wet And that is what we are seeing currently South America is a more of a mixed bag where you should see wet weather in Argentina But then often dry weather especially in the key crop areas of central Brazil And at the moment we've not quite seen that materialized So Australia have broadly avoided any detrimental effects to this debt to to to date of of any El Nino It's been they've seen enough rain to keep their crops going in fact enough rain to see their crops their crop production Expectations grow and we're we're back up to to several million tons wheat and canola higher than than initially expected so For at this stage Australia haven't seen the normal effects of an El Nino Which is somewhat surprised the market body is a good thing don't get me wrong. We're a good thing and the Australian crops are coming towards maturity now the harvest is about is is kicking into gear So those crops are pretty much over the line in Asia we're now starting to see some of them but the the the normal impacts of an El Nino where the palm Plantations are coming under pressure. There's a lot of warm and dry weather there. They're seeing yields falling whilst in South America The crops are going in the ground they're planting the soybeans at the moment they're planting their first crop cut on at the minute Argentina planting their crops at the moment as well and namely the soybeans soybeans come later but Maze is going in the ground and at the moment all is looking well. So at this stage we're not seeing the normal impacts of El Nino in South America, but that's not to say that one come in time. So it very much remains a key watch point, I would say. We're not quite seeing it worldwide, normal effects, but it could still be a problem. And one factor that's recently been mentioned and is now becoming a growing watch point is, when we see these super El Nino conditions, sometimes they play out over two seasons or two years. So it may be that this first year we've not really seen the conditions developers we would expect, but it can, we can end up with a double header, so to speak, where actually next year we could see the worsening effects. So though your meteorologists are saying the El Nino conditions dissipate into the spring. Will the lag effect on our weather conditions actually continue and the impacts on our crops continue for longer? That remains a key watch point. Chris W, I think he had some thoughts on this too. Yeah, well, my thoughts are from a sudden hemisphere milk production point of view, and I've looked back through the years back to 2012. And although there's a lot of talk from the likes of Fonterra and Derri and Z about the El Nino risks, I can't find a significant drop off in New Zealand milk volumes, because there's an El Nino in play or one Jew. The worst year that New Zealanders had by a country mile is 2013, where its volumes completely fell off a cliff. And that wasn't an El Nino year. So if we're hoping that El Nino will mean New Zealand volumes crash and help to, you know, slow global milk volumes, and I think we are living in hope, not living in reality. There was a similar comment at IFCN about where it would be fell in terms of a sort of land use production cropping perspective. And saying really if it did get to New Zealand or or sort of Oceana, it would be the very, very tail end and so many, many impact. And when there was also a slide that was shown about the sea temperature leading into El Nino events, and okay, which is why they're, I think, calling it super El Nino out there, is because we're currently trending at sort of the highest sea temperatures, we have previously going into an El Nino, so they think it's got the chance to tip over where it has been before. But it's interesting, Chris, if you're saying that hasn't necessarily played out Chris W in milk volumes out of some of those key dairy producing regions. Yeah, I think it's hard to say that, you know, when milk volumes are down, it's due to an El or El Nino, I think there are a lot of other factors that come into play more than that, or that's certainly what it seems like to me. Chris P coming back to you, for our dairy farmer listeners here in the UK, how much does, I mean, what happens in South America, how much does South American crops and whether, or you could broaden that out to Southern hemisphere gender, I suppose, how much does it actually matter to a dairy farmer here in the UK? Yeah, very much, very much matters. Increasingly, we have to look at these, I'd mark it as a world supply, supply and demand balance sheet. Yeah, what happens in South America absolutely feeds into that and drives sentiment at various times of the year. And of course, the seasonality of these crops means that there will be times when South America isn't doing much, they've harvested or they're not yet started planting. And like that sort of generally went, the Northern hemisphere is in play, but very much so, Southern hemisphere South America feeds into the global S&D. And though in Europe and in the UK, we increasingly moving towards trying to remove the forestations, supply chains from our supply chains, with the incoming EUDR and what have you, that that pushes us away from South America, even if we're not sourcing from there, what happens there drives the prices in the regions we are sourcing from. Thanks. Can I just, Chris, you've touched on the sort of soil sourcing discussion? Can I just ask you, you know, dairy UK's, Monday that came out a couple of weeks ago, and internally there's been a lot of discussion and we haven't necessarily got the full guidance yet, but what's your sort of interpretation thus far? My interpretation thus far is that there's still a lot of grey area. I think that I agree with the sentiment of trying to align all of our supply chains and align our supply chains with Europe, with the EUDR being adopted in Europe, with every likelihood at the end of this year, and the UK probably lagging a year. I think that there's an important differentiation there isn't that dairy UK have come out with an industry position, and farmers still need to go and speak to their processes in terms of their specific requirements, because it's quite, there's some broad principles which is about align with the EU, but there's still individual application at various levels by individual processes isn't there, and to your point, you can only ask what the customer asked you for. Okay, let's turn to the protein market. How is that looking at the moment, Chris? Yeah, as I've touched on the beginning, we've got prices that are sitting for soy mill in the UK roughly £100 up year on year, but when you overlay that with some of the fundamentals of the world S&D at the moment, we'll see the US North America US is harvesting their crop of the minute. There are about halfway through harvesting their soybeans, on track for pretty much a record production. Brazil are planting their beans at the moment, maybe 20% complete irritating their plantings now, but expectation is that they'll be expanding not to the same degrees they've expanded over the last decade, but still a small area expansion, all likelihood a record production there. Argentina haven't started planting yet, but their last crop was a record, and all expectation is they'll be planting a record again. So where the hell are prices up £100 a year on years? Well, the aforementioned global geopolitical situation, straightforward moves all but closed, crude oil markets, well over $100 a barrel, all major economies are looking at what they can do to move away from fossil fuels and adopt more sustainable fuel sources, and one of the key influences are key drivers that key inputs there is vegetables and soil, and in the US there are political decisions being made and manate being brought in that is driving soil demand for using biodiesel, and they're increasing year on year and month on month their soil usage, and that is driving the crush, it is driving expansion in the crush, it is driving consumption of soybeans. So though their production of soybeans is growing year on year, the consumption of soybeans is growing too, huge amount is ended up a soil that's going into biodiesel, but of course we've got soil mill coming out as well, that's ultimately the feed that we're focused on in our markets, but the thing is soil mill demand is also growing, as the population grows the head, the number of, especially in your more developing countries, the number of cattle, the number of pigs that's actually on the ground is expanding, and so soil mill demand is picking up too, and it is soil mill at the moment that is driving the, the, the wider soil complex and keeping these prices firm, and there's other aspects there too, EUDR as we mentioned at the moment it's due to coming in but a couple of months time, European countries are stockpiling, it's very much pressure in the nearby soil mill market, shippers are focusing as much as they can on getting their shipments into the EU in advance of the end of this year, they can bring in non-EU compliant soil mill by the end of this year, and still be able to use it next year as long as it's landed in the country before the end of this year, so that is really tightening and putting pressure on the nearby soil mill, soil mill market, but we've got potential. for that to then ease once we get beyond that EUDR cut off, let's say. And there was still much uncertainty as to where this market heads in the New Year and talking to a crusher. But yesterday, there very much of the mindset that once we get into the New Year, you could well see a bit of a breaking crisis. That overlaid the fact that by the New Year, the Brazilian crop will be reaching maturity as well, all being well. El Nino permitting, they'll get a decent crop coming off the fields and that could also add to the bearish aspect in that market. Okay. Serials then, let's talk a bit about numbers, figures for UK farms at the moment, what kind of what are we looking at there? Yeah. UK wheat prices broadly up £40 a year and the crop itself has come off pretty much in line with last year. Similar size crop yields slightly down and I think every was fresh to be up but yields slightly down but ultimately the production number is give I'll take the same as last year, about 10 million tons, over 10 million tons. And with the drought, the wheat crop was the same as last year. Well, I've been reading alarming reports that it's going to be the worst harvest since Adam and Eve. But last year was pretty terrible too. Last year was pretty terrible. You look at it versus a five-year average, the five-year average would still be up around the 12 million tons. So the 5 million tons were below average. We are always pretty terrible too as well. We're broad keen line with last year. The key aspect about the crop which makes it very similar to last year is that the quality is very good. So there's been a lot of million grade produced. The milling weeks have made the grade high proteins. Feed wheat is in shorter supply let's say. And there's every chance that we will, as we were at the tail end of last year, last crop year, sorry, we will be a net importer of feed wheat again. Well, I've an oversupply of milling wheat premiums or beyond the pressure again, our under pressure again. Feed wheat will be a net importer at some point later in this season. And that is driving the UK price at the moment because we are having to align ourselves with Europe in Sephora's keeping that import parity within check such that we can price for imports when the when the opportunity or the need arises. A big factor that's influenced our market. It's recently is the weakness of the euro. So the pound euro has been on an absolute fire of like we've seen of maybe three weeks in a row where we've seen pretty much every day the pound strengthen in against the euro. That's actually seen the rise in London prices and UK prices, tempered significantly against what we've seen in French futures and French markets. So we could have well seen many pounds more, I think, to the to prices domestically over the last few weeks were it not for the fact that the the euro's weakened that much. Headline summary would be, crop, similar size to last year, quality very good, milling premiums are likely to remain under pressure as a result. But at the same time we will end up a net importer of feed week this season and need to maintain that import parity in order to do so. Okay and finally then can you go and overview of the situation for Maze and the outlook for the future. Maze is an interesting one. We saw the latest USDA WASD reports, we call them WASD disease. The world agricultural supply and demand estimates is what WASD stands for, that came out last Friday so we could go and the market expected a downgrade in US crop in US yields which the harvest there was ongoing in the US Maze service and expected a downgrade and in fact we got an upgrade. That's completely blindsided the market, surprised the market, funds were significantly long and as a result went hell we need to do something here and sold off sharply and we've seen some continued downseidement but precious since. It'll see US production coming out a record and we've seen roughly five plus pounds come out of the market in the last week. That's on top of previous downside a bit we saw a month ago off the back of a USDA report in that time stock so where we for a long time been looking at a market that was being driven by the weather on the shore these shores European shores where we've had a drought all summer especially in patting France. The French Maze crop has been absolutely dire roughly half last year's production last year they've produced about 14 million tons of Maze in France this year they'll be lucky to get to seven the downgrade to keep on coming and so that's good putting a significant amount of pressure on European Maze markets really supporting the price and meaning they're going to be in that import of this year but yeah the the US market is far more far more well supplied and all was well supplied envyway a number of had this recent update so significant pressure on Maze prices at the moment and it will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the coming weeks and months I think that that remains strong demand for Maze globally especially when you again in the ethanol the ethanol side of things it seems to have gone a bit quiet on that front at the moment consumption and X and import major imported demand has gone a bit quiet but as they say low prices drive demand and therefore as we've seen this recent pullback in prices are we going to see an uptick in demand as such that comes up to meet here and then we see either a flat lining in prices or a retracement okay it'll be very interesting to see underlying all of this again El Nino Brazil they don't plant their second that their main safrina maze crop until the new year that comes after the soybeans we need soybeans to go in and up timely manner we need to harvest to progress in a timely manner we need good weather conditions there to get that crop off in a hurry to get the maze in and give it the absolute best chance if El Nino kicks into gear and they see warm dry weather which is more often than not what they do see in Brazil then that could have detrimental effects on their maze crop at the moment it's a long way off but that is a fight that I would raise. If I paraphrase then Chris is a little bit of a bone window on mares at the moment if you're looking and that the soil you you don't see a lot of movement yeah possibly a slight uplift and so any immediate need should be covered is that that's a becky paraphrase and all your intel yeah definitely if you've got a winter cover to take this side of this side of spring yeah really mother the product I'd be getting on and doing it because there's just too much near it but nearby volatility and too many other factors that could come in then that and can it can dry prices higher so I would just be getting on and getting it done longer term longer term there are certain products you you could get away with leaving I would I would lead the proteins that there is the chance that we see price pressure from harvest and South American weather and what have you with El Nino doesn't doesn't come to fruition there are also there are some products that I would be just I would be again looking to give some attention to the cereals market as I say there's significant uncertainty regards new crop plantings and there's a long way to go for those crops whether and what have you plays into that if we don't plant as many acres and then we get bad weather then that is a bullish factor for new crop prices so very much give cereals attention for the summer and then the fibers market that we touched on earlier sugar beet and sow holes the sugar beet crop it's not getting any better at the moment prices are very high that's feeding through into wider sorry fiber markets wheat feed is in very tight supply we're seeing as I say very good wheat quality extraction rates are strong we're just not seeing the wheat he products in that we would normally see euro is also in a similar boat very tight availability. And soil, yes, they are South American production. Yes, there are plenty of them around us. The South American crush is strong, as is the North American crush. But there are other countries that are willing to pay higher prices than we are right now. And some shippers that we're speaking to are struggling to originate the vessels to bring the material in. Again, that speaks to higher prices. So I'm sorry, there's a lot of this sound like it's higher prices could come. The risk is definitely higher, more to the upside than the downside. But yeah, mazes one, we could see, we could see some there by pressure on. But yeah, that would be, that would be my fault. Chris, if you had a crystal ball and it's a bit like Chris Walkland, if we had a crystal ball on exactly what it would do, then we wouldn't be recording the podcast at 8 AM on Friday morning. What if we would hold this set on the boats and we're hopefully sunning ourselves. But it's good to have the general sentiment notwithstanding. And also to understand the factors are at play into what extent. So it's been really useful to have that discussion. Yeah, we could still record the podcast sunning ourselves on a boat, Becky. Yeah, yeah, which is being the side, yeah. Well, as long as I'm not paying for everybody's thoughts. Chris, with all that in mind, and with so much going on at the moment, you given us a brief summary at the end of your last response there. But how would you summarize the upside risk versus the downside risk at the moment? Yeah, upside risk, five greater than downside. And we could see resolution to these conflicts, these key geopolitical drivers could be resolved. And if they are, then almost certainly we see sun downside. The extent of which and the timing of which is unknown as ever, we go up the escalator and down the stairs. But yeah, the main downside opportunity, let's say, would be that equally el Niño, as I say, hasn't fully materialized in Australia yet. And as yet, isn't showing major signs of appearing elsewhere. So there's potential there as well. But at the same time, these geopolitical factors don't show much sign of easing. And the longer they rumble on, the more they have potential to impact next year's crops and beyond. And that's a problem. I think all of the last six months or more is a reminder of just how much geopolitics plays an ever increasing role in our market. And we can't control that. Our government can barely even control that. And the fundamentals only go so far. So we can see, as in the soil record production, yet prices still would still move that much higher, which is why I would kind of say to any farmers that are listening, that yes, price is important. And it's one, it's a key part of any buy-in decision. But I also urge you to look at the bigger picture and the longer term. And I think the more we look bigger picture and longer term, the more we can get ourselves away from the nearby volatility. You know, it can feel like if you're only looking six weeks out, prices are going up in a very sharp way up and down. If we look six months, I'll be on now actually the curves a lot smoother. Becky turning very briefly to Forage. With Forage stocks varying, how should farmers be thinking about the balance between homegrown Forage and bought in feed in your view? It's interesting because the Forage has resolved itself and you can see that in milk flows in several areas of the country. So, you know, some of the key areas that were particularly dry across the midlands have had enough rent to bring, you know, keep cows out where they were grazing and to take additional cuts where they weren't having sat in a room with a sort of range of farmers on Wednesday this week. I think the South West still, and I saw it last night was announced wasn't it? And there's an official drought status with 19% levels in some of the reservoirs down in the South West. So, it's still still a little bit variable. You know, in relative terms, feeds still, we've had, we're still on a long low feed market even with the volatility that's been built in recently. But one of the challenges is when you listen to Chris on some of those sort of forage substitutes, you know, availability is pretty limited and actually proportionally they look moderately cost effective would be how I would describe it. So, yeah, I mean, with where we've been on the feed market, that some of the benefit is that I would think, I would think, slash, we are seeing in the data that comes through and speaking to clients that actually people are relatively well covered and have been relatively well covered. So, so probably a, you know, working 12 and 18 months out for certainly 60, 70% of feed needs. So, I think Chris's advice is really pertinent, Chris Pickles' advice is really pertinent for those that haven't got quite the same amount of cover in the short term, which I'm where they might need to go into the market. Yeah. So, with that in mind, Chris, if a farmer isn't covered at the moment, should they wait? How do they decide? If they're not covered for anything in the next six months, I wouldn't be waiting. I would be getting on and looking to do something, especially if they keep close to your feed advisor, keep close to your feed merchant. If there's a dip, then definitely be getting in and taking advantage of that. And as I say, looking further forward, there are definitely some products that should be given attention for the more longer term. So, you may, you may, may I'm beyond as well, there are some products more. So, there are others that should be looked at. But as I say, looking further ahead, smooth advocate, I think quite often we can get bogged down and we get stuck in the nearby and there's lots going on. But taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture in the longer term is something I urge people to do as much as they can. Okay. That's been such an informative episode. But just before we finish, what would your overall message be based on today's conversation, Chris? Yeah. I think it's that bigger picture and longer term message. Well, that as we say, there's a lot of dear politics can come in and blindside us at any moment and we can't control that. But more often than not, it impacts. There's a need to reaction and it impacts the nearby, it impacts the next six, eight weeks. So, what have you? If we're constantly looking six months and beyond actually protects us from that nearby volatility. Okay. That's all we've time for. But a very big thank you to our guest, Chris Pickles, as well as Chris Walkland and podcast producer Becky Ray. Thank you very much for listening. Please see the show notes for more information, including our podcast disclaimer. We'll be back with you next week. But for now, it's goodbye from all of us here.